The Chafee Victory: What Now?
Primary Night In America
How much is Chafee's victory worth to the NRSC? Possibly $3M. That's the amount of money the DSCC is going to have to spend in the state to give themselves a chance at knocking Chafee off in November. Which state would have benefitted from the DSCC saving $3M in RI: TN? AZ? VA?
Dems may still win RI, but Sheldon Whitehouse's job is a lot harder now that the national Republicans are sticking around. No doubt, the very large indie turnout has to scare some Dems who need RI in order to get to the magic number of 6 Senate pickups.
The most important part of this RI battle is that Chafee didn't have to move too far to the right to win. Compare Chafee to Corker in TN. Corker had to prove his conservative credentials to stop the bleeding on the right. Chafee didn't do that. Instead, he and the NRSC unloaded on character attacks on Laffey. Considering how successful the personal attacks on Laffey were in this primary, no doubt the GOP will be mimicking the tactic in other states. The Washington Post, over the weekend, hinted at this character strategy. It worked in RI. Will it work against Sherrod Brown, Claire McCaskill and Harold Ford Jr., the three Dems running in the three GOP Senate firewall states?
So Chafee got to keep his moderate credentials and still won the GOP primary... that's pretty much the prescription the GOP would have cooked for victory in November.
One other note on RI. The RNC 72-hour program has once again surpassed expecations. While there are sporadic reports that the RNC's vaunted GOTV program is running into burnout problems in states like OH, MO and PA (three states that saw the program first introduced in '04) wherever the RNC has introduced the program for the first time this cycle, they've seen results. From CA 50 to RI SEN, the RNC and the WH are probably getting cocky about their abilities to "save" elections. Does this mean in states like TN, CT and IN -- three places the RNC is implementing the 72-hour program for the first time, they'll see better than expected results?
These are the questions that keep many of us up at night. BTW, should the GOP hold the senate by a seat, tonight will be known as the Mark Twain primary because it may be the night where we found out that reports of the GOP's demise had been greatly exaggerated. [CHUCK TODD]
WTF? Did the RNC pay you to write that post? A little more balance, please. The total votes cast in both the Dem primaries for Senate and Gov surpassed those cast in the Republican primaries (strikingly so in the gubernatorial race) - despite the fact that there was nothing on the ballot to drive Democratic turnout. And any money that the RNC would be able to divert to - oh, let's say Ohio - following a Laffey win is now needed to for the general election in Rhode Island - which remains a toss-up.
Look the NRSC backed Chafee for obvious reasons, his chances of winning the general election in Rhode Island is better than Laffy. Chafee will continue to vote with the Democrates except when it comes to voting for the Republicans leadership. The Republicans care more about maintaining their majority than their legislative success.
It is not the first time the the GOP is using the 72 hour plan in IN. I have a PDF file that says they used it in 2004. The manual goes through all the steps they used. I found it looking for GOTV guides on Google.