October 2006 Archives

Is The Best Defense...

a good offense? The NRSC has bought at least $800,000 of TV ad time in MI SEN targeting Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow. This is one day after the NRSC put in $500K in MD SEN and two days since they tossed another $300K+ in MT SEN. As for the MI SEN buy, sources tell me the buy could be as high as a $1M.

The decision to try and play a little offense in this time when Republicans are defending the lion's share of competitive Senate seats is an interesting gambit. Stabenow has been polling just over 50% in most October polling, but the sour atmosphere in Michigan has Republicans believing if voters want to dump incumbents, it might help Republican Mike Bouchard. It's a long shot, but a $1M in MI SEN might do more damage to Stabenow and Democrats as a whole than spreading out that extra $1M in MO, TN and VA [CHUCK TODD]

Matt Dowd, Dick Armey Defend Kerry

Matt Dowd, the president's '04 pollster, told MSNBC's Chris Matthews that Kerry "just misspoke" and "in no way" did he think Kerry intended to insult U.S. troops.

And here's ex-Maj. Leader Dick Armey, also on Hardball:

“Well, of course, this is a perfect example of politics in America … The President wants the people to perceive [Kerry] of having maligned our troops… I think John Kerry’s right. He’s making a defense of himself. He’s saying, ‘Look, I was not maligning the troops, I was maligning the President of the United States.'”

Kid Rock For Bouchard

Detroit's own Kid Rock will appear at a rally for MI SEN candidate Mike Bouchard on Thursday.

The last time Kid Rock was in the news....

Just In Case We Had Forgotten...

Pres Bush veered off a bit from his prepared text just moments ago at a rally for ex-Rep. Mac Collins (R) in South GA. Seizing on the news of the day, Bush referred to Kerry as his "opponent from the 2004 presidential race" and, on further reference, the "Senator from Massachusetts."

Neither appellation was included in the text circulated by the WH before the speech.

From Last Call: 5pm News Update

That Sound You Hear...

Is Rahm Emanuel's BlackBerry smashing against cement.

Bush Slams Kerry Over Troop Comments

Questions:

By making himself an issue, did Sen. John Kerry do the GOP a favor by giving them an issue to motivate their base? (Independents may not care, but the base hates Kerry... hates him.)

If Kerry is happy to let America know that he's not going to take sleights, are Democrats happy to have Kerry in the spotlight seven days before the election?

Couldn't Kerry have taken care of this imbroglio by admitting that he mangled his words?

Is it smart for any Democrat right now to take the spotlight? Shouldn't the Dems want to keep the spotlight solely and totally on Bush and Iraq?

Does Kerry know how and when to pick his battles? Should Kerry respond to every ant bite with a gun?

Does Kerry have to respond to every Republican who picks on him... even at the expense of Democratic message unity?

Do Republicans really believe that Kerry wasn't talking about Pres. Bush? (We believe that Kerry was referring to Bush because he's used a similar formulation in our presence before and quite clearly meant to call Bush a dummy.)

Aren't Republicans being a bit intellectually dishonest by taking Kerry out of context?

How many news cycles will this cost the Democrats?

Do independents associate Kerry with “strength?”

Will bloggers -- smart and pragmatic -- come to Kerry's defense?

Will the media treat Kerry fairly enough to report on his comments fairly?

Do Republicans want to refight '04 about Iraq?

Here's what Pres. Bush is supposed to say this afternoon:

.....I cannot tell you how proud I am to be the Commander-in-Chief of such incredibly brave men and women who have volunteered to wear the uniform of the United State s. And even in the midst of a heated campaign season, there are still some things we should all be able to agree on – and one of the most important is that every one of our troops deserves our gratitude – and respect. Yesterday Democrat Senator John Kerry was speaking to a group of young people in California, and gave them this advice, quote: “You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don’t you get stuck in Iraq.”

The Senator’s suggestion that the men and women of our military are somehow uneducated is insulting and shameful. Our troops did not enlist because they did not study hard in school or do their homework. The men and women who serve in our all-volunteer Armed Forces are plenty smart and are serving because they are patriots – and Senator Kerry owes them an apology.

Whatever party you belong to, whatever you think about the war in Iraq, we should all agree that our troops deserve our unwavering support. And when it comes to supporting our men and women in uniform, I don’t have any doubt where Mac Collins is going to land. He is a strong supporter of the military. And he knows what I know: Any time you have American troops in harm’s way, they have the right to expect the full support of the American government.

Today On Hotline TV: Betting The House

...And the Senate, and some Governor's mansions. We'll tell you which bets to take in your office pool.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Bloggers Make Campaign Payroll

Bloggers paid by campaigns were a rarity two years ago -- so rare that their work and their ethics, whether for Republicans or Democrats, became fodder for controversy. Bloggers on the campaign dime (and off) have been even more controversial this year, but that is at least in part because there are so many more of them.

Pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar.

With increasing frequency, candidates across the country are paying bloggers to write, develop Web sites, connect with energetic allies on the Internet, respond to online critics, and advise their employers about how to behave in the blogosphere. Others are paid to do more traditional campaign work like communications consulting and opposition research.

Their pay scales range from a few hundred dollars a month to a few thousand, with some of the bloggers earning top dollar for their expertise. [K. DANIEL GLOVER]

Continue Reading "Bloggers Make Campaign Payroll"

Republicans Say They're Sorry

How nervous are GOPers, one week out? Just ask the candidates, at least 3 of whom are running new TV ads acknowledging the uphill challenges they face 11/7.

"People tell me, Linc, I really like you, but I want to send Bush a message," Sen. Lincoln Chafee admits in a new ad. "I've always stood for principle, even if it meant standing alone."

MN SEN candidate Mark Kennedy closes his new MN SEN ad on nat'l security by saying, "I approve this message, even though I know it may not be what you want to hear."

In OR GOV, Ron Saxton tries to dance toward his state's anti-GOP middle. "National politics are a mess, and I'm as angry as you are. But this election is about Oregon, and change," he says. "I'm a Republican, but I'll be with my party when it's right, and against it when it's wrong."

While many campaigns are closing dirty, these GOP ads in blue states take a different tack. Underdogs, they're pleading with voters to ignore nat'l dynamics and focus on the face on their TV screens. Will it succeed? Perhaps. But why is it voters don't get ads like this, which pitch the "honesty" value only when that candidate is trailing, perhaps, trailing badly?

Diebold V. HBO

A new HBO documentary on electronic voting, Hacking Democracy, is drawing fire from Diebold Election Systems. Hacking Democracy premiers 11/2 at 9:00 ET.

The film draws on the research of many heroes of the ballot integrity movement -- self-described Seattle grandmother and researcher Bev Harris, John Hopkins U prof. Avi Rubin, and Harri Hursti, who publicly demonstrated how easy it was to hack into a Diebold machine.

From the HBO preview:

"Ultimately, Bev Harris' research proved that the top-secret computerized systems counting the votes in America's public elections are not only fallible, but also vulnerable to undetectable hacking, from local school board contests to the presidential race. With the electronic voting machines of three companies - Diebold, ESS and Sequoia - collectively responsible for around 80 percent of America's votes today, the stakes for democracy are high."

Suffice it to say, the doc isn't friendly to Diebold.

So Diebold, working with the Beltway PR giant Edelman, is trying to cast doubt on the credibility of the content in the film.

Diebold president Dave Byrd sent a letter 10/30 to HBO chairman Chris Albrecht demanding that factual inaccuracies be corrected by the time of broadcast and that HBO append a 30 second disclaimer to the start of the film. Specifically, Diebold claims that the company is blamed for conduct in elections run by other companies' machines; that the Harri Hursti experiment was "a complete sham," and that documentary overstates Diebold's market share.

"The material errors and material misrepresentations are so egregious that HBO should pull the documentary," Byrd writes.

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

According to two sources familiar with ad placements, the NRSC indie expenditure cmte has bought TV ad time in two Maryland markets, Baltimore and Salisbury, for a cost of approx. $470K. So far, the I.E. has not bought time in the DC market. (Hotline)

Bernadette Budde, the whip-smart senior vice president at BIPAC, thinks the MO Senate race will wind up being the closest in the country and may keep us up all night on 11/7. (C-SPAN watching)

In TN, ex-Sen. Fred Thompson cut an ad for Bob Corker. Thompson: "My dad brought me here (to the Ryman) a long time ago to see Hank Williams, Sr. Been coming back ever since. A Tennessee Tradition. Reminds me of this Senate race and who we trust to fight for the things we believe in, appoint good judges, and keep the reins on government. Well, for me it's Bob Corker. I've known Bob for a long time, and he's a man of integrity who will do what's right. The Senate sure could use a man like Bob Corker. Believe me, I know." CORKER: "I'm Bob Corker and I've approved this message" (release, 10/30).

In VA, Independent Green Party cand. Gail Parker "this week ... seems to be walking a tight rope between staying in and dropping out" of the race. Parker: "It's impossible for me to drop out. My name is on the ballot and will be on the ballot. We are talking or trying to open up lines of communication with the other candidates. Because I was shut out of the debates, they haven't heard my message." When "pressed about whether reports of her dropping out were a publicity stunt" she "was evasive." (Francis, DC Examiner, 10/31).

Daily Troika: McCain Slams Kerry For Troops Comment

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) wants an apology from Sen. John Kerry for comments the '04 Dem nominee made yesterday in CA that appeared to suggest that U.S. troops were not hard-working and intelligent.

Kerry, on 10/30: "You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework, and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. And if you don't you get stuck in Iraq."

McCain, in Indianapolis today campaigning for Republicans, calls Kerry's remarks "insensitive, ill-considered" and "unfortunate." More, from McCain's statement: "The suggestion that only the least educated Americans would agree to serve in the military and fight in Iraq, is an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night." More from McCain: "Senator Kerry owes an apology to the many thousands of Americans serving in Iraq, who answered their country's call because they are patriots and not because of any deficiencies in their education."

A Kerry adviser said that Kerry was referring to the general intellectual abilities of Pres. Bush and not U.S. troops. The quotation, the adviser admits, came out slightly "mangled."

Late 10/30, Kerry issued a response to criticism from WH press. sec. Tony Snow: "If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy. This is the classic G.O.P. playbook. I'm sick and tired of these despicable Republican attacks that always seem to come from those who never can be found to serve in war, but love to attack those who did."

Kerry aide David Wade: "When will John McCain ask his new Republican best friends George Bush and Dick Cheney to apologize for misleading America into war and giving us a Katrina foreign policy that has betrayed our ideals, killed and maimed our soldiers, and widened the terrorist threat instead of defeating it? John McCain's neoconservative pals are afraid to debate veterans who live and breathe the concerns of our troops, not the empty slogans of an Administration that sent our brave troops to war without body armor."

GOP bloggers and party officials are sending around a videotape of Kerry in the hopes that it will rally conservatives.

McCain plans to repeat his statement on camera in Indianapolis at 1:00 pm ET (Hotline)

Squibs:

Barbs and Jabs: See How They Run (Away From Bush)

Debate highlights from OH 15 (featuring an actual "your mother" insult, New Jersey SEN (corruption, corruption, orruption), IL 06 (sniping about immigration) and TN SEN, featuring Ford V. Corker. Plus: a montage of Republicans running away from Pres. Bush.

Natural Tightening Doesn't Equal Momentum

Our Hotline Spotlight from 10/30:

There are more polls out today, it seems, than there are races to poll, many showing races on the move. But which contests are "closing," and which candidates are heading into their final week with real Mo'?

It's a subtle distinction, but a crucial one as we try, just 8 days out, to gauge the state of play. Some races are simply closing, as undecideds come home to their natural leanings. In NJ, where voters usually break late for Dems, Menendez has opened up a small lead. In MN, an increasingly competitive blueish-purple state, Klobuchar has seen her huge advantage shrink slightly.

Elsewhere, candidates are gaining momentum. Following Cubin's missteps, Dem Trauner is now locked in a dead heat in WY AL. Dems cite SEN tracking polls that show VA's Webb and TN's Ford, boosted by backlash, pulling ahead. (#20)

Sometimes, it's both momentum and closing. Burns, for example, is showing signs of life in MT SEN, which could stem from the red state's natural leanings and a surge from a barrage of anti-Tester ads. Can the NRSC's cash infusion stir real momentum there?

Tea Leaf Watch: 7 Days Out

Words of the day: natural tightening.

Leaves:

1. Charlie Cook: "With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely. If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels."

2. The GOP reported more than 2 million voter contacts over the past four days, exceeding their expectations. (Hotline sources)

3. The GOP claims early voting successes in IA, NM and FL -- the Dems dispute this.

4. Cook changes the following seats to toss-ups: AZ 05 (Hayworth), CA 11 (Pombo), CO 04 (Musgrave), CO 05 (Open, KS 02 (Ryun), MN 01 (Gutknecht), NH 02 (Bass), OH O2 (Schmidt), WY Al (Cubin). CA 50 (Bilbray) and NE 03 (Open) have been downgraded to "Lean Republican." and IA 01 has been rated "Lean Democrat."

5. Pres. Bush's campaign schedule in the final stretch does not inspire confidence: he'll campaign for Ryun in Kansas and for Marilyn Musgrave in CO 04.

6. Two Research 2000 polls for the New London Day and the Manchester Journal Inquirer show Rep. Chris Shays (R) trailing Diane Farrell (D) 47%-43% in CT 04, and Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) behind state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) 46%-43% in CT 05 (release).

7. John Podhoretz "If the House is controlled by only a few seats, the coming election cycles could feature control of Congress flipping between parties every two years. This will surely affect the behavior of individual Congressmen and a change in the tone in the House."

8. Does Michael Barone sound like a confident conservative to you? " I don't know what the results of the midterm elections of 2006 will be. But I doubt that they will have the sweeping partisan or policy consequences of the midterm elections of 1874 and 1894, or 1938 and 1994."

HRH Extra: Rolling 3s

How confident is the DCCC feeling?

So much that they’re airing ads in one of the most conservative districts in the country, Nebraska’s 3rd District. The open-seat district voted 75% for President Bush in ’04 – his eighth highest total nationwide. But Club for Growth-endorsed state senator Adrian Smith (R) has struggled on the campaign trail, and is trailing rancher Scott Kleeb (D) in a Democratic-sponsored poll -- outside the margin of error.

Even if Democrats don’t win here, the fact that they’re spending money in such a ruby red district indicates how they feel about their chances Election Night.

They’re also spending money in bellwether districts where the Democratic nominees have been weaker than in past cycles. Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV 03) has spent over $2 million against first-time candidate Tessa Hafen (D), who just turned 30. But he’s been has been laying low on the campaign trail, especially amid charges of illegal fundraising from his campaign office.

And Rep. Anne Northup (R-KY 03) usually faces tough re-election campaigns, but thought she had a breather when the Democrats nominated alt-weekly publisher John Yarmuth (D). He has been an oppo-researchers’ dream because he’s written many controversial columns throughout his career. But because of the national and statewide environment, he’s kept within striking distance and now will be getting a boost from the DCCC.

Democrats are rolling the dice in three 3rd Districts. On Election Night, we’ll see if their gamble pays off. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Polls Show Better News For GOPers

A new round of CNN/Opinion Research polls in five states show Dems leading in 3 of 5 top races and tied in one. Looks like Missouri is the Dems' 51st seat and the GOPers' firewall. The results, of between 500-600 LVs per state (margin of error +/- 4.4% to 4%):

MISSOURI

Sen. Jim Talent (R)                 49%
Aud. Claire McCaskill (D)           49

NEW JERSEY

Sen. Bob Menendez (D)               51%
State Sen. Tom Kean (R)             44

OHIO

Rep. Sherrod Brown (D)              54%
Sen. Mike DeWine (R)                43

TENNESSEE

Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) 52%
Rep. Harold Ford (D)                44

VIRGINIA

Ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D)           50%
Sen. George Allen (R)               46

Hotline After Dark -- The FNC GOTV Edition

One week out, lots of good interviews:

Pres. Bush sat down with FNC's Hannity:

On the midterms: "You know, in 2002, a lot of the pundits didn't get the off-year elections right. In 2004, a lot of people thought I was going down eight days before the election. And in 2006, there is a lot of predictors saying that, you know, the Democrats will sweep the House and maybe take the Senate. And I just don't see it that way."

Hannity: "You've been a big target of the Democrats, as you know -- some of the rhetoric has been really harsh. Let me give you some examples and get your reaction to it. Nancy Pelosi, you're mentally unstable. Harry Reid called you a loser in front of schoolchildren. Ted Kennedy has called you're a liar. He's said you concocted the war for political gain. Al Gore screamed at the top of his lungs that you betrayed your country. When you hear that -- these are the leaders, the prominent leaders of the Democrats -- does that offend you? Does that bother you? What does that say to you?"

Bush: "First of all, I believe I've made the right decisions. And, therefore, I don't let those screeches bother me. It's sad that we can't have a civil discourse in the midst of historic times. You know, the president has got to make decisions, and these folks know why I made the decisions I've made. And, you know, I'm sorry that politics has gotten to that point. I'm not the first president, however, that has been -- you know, that they've called names, and I won't be the last."

On Dems talking about their Iraq vote: "People made their votes on Saddam Hussein based upon the same intelligence as I had and that my judgment is you stand by your vote and you stand by your principles. ... But this notion about trying to chase public opinion is just not how you can make good, sound decisions. One man who stood by his decision is Joe Lieberman. He understands the consequences. And the Democrat Party ran him out of the party because he stood on principle."

Asked if he's supporting Lieberman: "I am studiously staying away from that race."

On "stay the course": "Well, what I meant was, 'Don't leave before the job is done.' But in my line of work, words always get, you know, kind of put in different contexts and, you know, I guess they use words to suit their purposes" ("Hannity & Colmes," 10/30).

AND NOW, YOUR NUMBER TWO

VP Cheney sat down with FNC's Cavuto:

Cavuto: "Do you think, though, that the insurgents are better at these polls than even we are, that they are reading them and seeing frustration growing with the war, and, regardless of the good economy, saying: Let's keep up the attacks; let's keep up the pressure?"

Cheney: "It's my belief that they're very sensitive of the fact that we have got an election scheduled. And, you know, they can get on the Web sites like anybody else. There isn't anything that's on the Internet that's not accessible to them. They're on it all the time. They're very sophisticated users of it. And I do believe that that's a part of it. I think we have also seen, of course, a higher level of violence because of Ramadan. Traditionally, there's a spike about this time of year, in terms of level of activity."

On Lynne Cheney's CNN interview: "I thought it was great. We refer to it around the house as the 'slap-down.' And she was very tough, but she was very accurate and very aggressive. And, of course, she was in the business for a while. There was a time, on that network, when she used to host the show they had on for a long time called 'Crossfire,' on Sundays for a couple of years. So, she spoke her mind, and I thought it was perfectly appropriate."

More: "I told her I thought it was a sterling performance."

Asked about the film "Death of a President": "I haven't seen it."

Cavuto: "What's interesting is how you're portrayed, though. The president is killed, and you are on a vindictive witch-hunt that takes you across the Middle East, namely, to Syria -- not too good, not too -- I don't know the best way to put it -- complimentary. What do you think of that?"

Cheney: "I haven't seen it. I'm reluctant to even comment on it."

Cavuto: "But does your image in the press and the fact that, you know, the way you're parodied, and the way you're looked at in the media in general, does it ever bug you? Or does Lynne -- we're in your wife's office now -- ever say: I don't like that at all; they're not being fair to you?"

Cheney: "No, I think the family has adjusted over the years. It goes with the turf. I sometimes listen to Don Imus in the morning on the grounds that, whatever is going to happen to me during the day, it can't be as bad as what's been said about me first thing in the morning while I'm shaving. You need to have a thick skin in this business. I say what I think, and do everything I can to support the president and do the right thing" ("Your World," 10/30).

He also sat down with CNBC's Kudlow. Most of the discussion focused on business issues.

On the midterms: "I'm optimistic. ... I think we've been picking up speed here in the last couple of weeks. We did very well, I think, back in September, then we slowed down, obviously, and ran into some issues that were a distraction. But I sense we're back on track now. I've done 115, 116 campaigns so far this year. And I'm going back out on the road again this week. I think we will hold the House and hold the Senate. We may lose a few seats along the way, but I think that it's going to be a surprisingly strong year for Republicans" ("Kudlow & Company," 10/30).

HUNTING FOR VOTES

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) was in the "Situation Room" to discuss his WH run:

Asked about reports he's announcing now because he's afraid Dems will take control of Congress: "I think that's nuts. I mean if you announce ahead of the elections, people will question it. If you announce after the elections, then they'll say, well, you tried to get a consolation prize. I just do what I always do."

Asked if he would take the Defense Sec. job if offered: "No. I think Don Rumsfeld, our longest serving defense secretary in the history of this country, is doing an outstanding job. And I think what Americans realize ... it's just a tough job. He's revamping the military all the way through. He's got wars in two theaters. He's got a two-and-a-half million man Army and National Guard and Marine Corps and Air Force and Navy. This is a tough job. It's heavy lifting. But we're spreading freedom and we're not in any worse shape than we were during the cold war, when lots of people said you're going in the wrong direction" (CNN, 10/30).

Hunter discussed immigration issues on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" and also played "Hardball":

Hunter: "I think I can win this thing. And remember, I haven't announced. What I said is, I'm making preparations to run. The second announcement comes later so you can get a second press conference, or course."

Asked if he's a Bush GOPer: "Call me a Reagan Republican" (MSNBC, 10/30).

BACK AT YOU

And CNN's Blitzer said of his Lynne Cheney interview: "I just want to correct the record. We did not sandbag Mrs. Cheney, she knew full well that we would be asking her serious political questions in addition to those questions that we asked her about her new children's book that was reaffirmed with her staff only hours before the interview. In fact, every time she has come to do an interview with me in recent years about children's books, she always agrees to answer serious questions, and she did as well this time" ("Situation Room," 10/30).

TALK TIME

TV's doing fewer candidate profiles and more candidate interviews:

• NBC's Reid profiled PA SEN for the "Nightly News."
• Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) in the "Situation Room" talked about the Casey ads tying him to Bush: "That 98 percent figure I think has been in almost every single ad he's run. So, he obviously believes that, you know, tying me to the president, even though, you know, that 98 percent is based only on 21 percent of the votes I cast. And, if you look at Senator Specter, he has almost a 90 percent voting record out of that index" (CNN, 10/30).
• Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) was on "Tucker" as where MD SEN candidates Michael Steele (R) and Ben Cardin (D) in separate interviews.
• CNN's Crowley profiled MO SEN for "Lou Dobbs Tonight."

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Friends In Low Places: The NRCC's launching several new TV ads in contested districts, including: CO 05, NV 03, WY AL and NY 29. Meanwhile, the DCCC has ad buys in KS 02 and KY 02.

2. Neck-And-Neck: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
Roskam               46%            Duckworth        41%/40%
Duckworth            42             Roskam           40 /34
Other/undec          12

Tighter Than We Thought: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) and businessman David McSweeney (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
Bean                 42%            Bean             43%/36%
McSweeney            39             McSweeney        39 /35
Other/undec          19

3. Kleeb Up In One-Day Poll: A Penn Schoen & Berland (D) poll; conducted 10/29 in NE 03 for rancher Scott Kleeb (D); surveyed 404 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/30). Tested: Kleeb and State Sen. Adrian Smith (R).

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind
Kleeb        46% 80% 21% 55%
Smith        40  12  62  29
Other/undec  14   8  16  16

4. Talking Out Of Class: Rep. Tim Murphy's (R) past and present staffers say he "has mixed campaign activities and official government work in a manner" that violates House rules. Allegations include using his Mt. Lebanon office for campaign activities, instructing "taxpayer paid" staffers to carry campaign materials "at all times...for constituents," making "unpaid interns" go door-to-door to "homes of registered voters" and advising staffers "to devote their time to labeling, stuffing and mailing greeting cards to individuals who were campaign contributors" to Murphy. Scheduler Jayne O'Shaughnessy: "I see someone in a very high office taking advantage of people and situations, and it's wrong."

Yet Murphy "neither denied nor confirmed" the allegations. Murphy: "While it's interesting that these concerns have been raised one week before the election... I will cooperate." Although Telecom exec. Chad Kluko (D) has instructed his own staff "not to pursue the allegations of questionable ethics," it was Kluko's ex-campaign manager, Marty Marks, who informed the Post-Gazette about the allegations a week ago (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

Today On Hotline TV: Hit That Bandwagon

We're jumping on bandwagons and calling some races, all in preparation for our huge prediction show on Friday. Check out the warm-ups.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. NRSC Back In?: Although the last time the NRSC aired an ad for Sen. Conrad Burns (R) was 8/06, a new poll shows he has closed the gap on state Senate Pres. Jon Tester. According to a Hotline source, the NRSC has purchased $300K -- 1500-1800 GRPs per market -- of I.E. in MT.

Washington Post Columnist Robert Novak writes: "Burns made a personal appeal" to the WH for a late TV buy. "Help was promised after new polls showed Burns had cut into his previous double-digit deficit" (10/28).

2. Webb Leads, According To Dem Poll:In VA, a Garin Hart Yang Research Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-29 for the DSCC; surveyed 811 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/30). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Note: "W/Lnrs" denotes leaners included.

General Election Matchup
                 All W/Lnrs
Webb             43%   47%
Allen            38    43
Other/undec      19    10

3. Backlash? Ford Polling Indicates It : In TN, a Benenson Strategy Group (D) poll; conducted 10/26-28 for Rep. Harold Ford (D); surveyed 560 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (Hotline sources, 10/30). Tested: Ford and ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav      Now
             Now 10/14 9/21         Ford         52%/40%
Ford         48%  46%  48%          Corker       45 /44
Corker       43   45   41
Other/undec   9    9   11

4. If She Wins, Will McCaskill Be Gilmour's Girl?:In MO, a Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/23-26 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV; surveyed 800 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 10/29). Tested: Sen. Jim Talent (R), Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) and frequent candidate Frank Gilmour (L). Geographic abbreviations: STL is St. Louis. Sub is the St. Louis suburbs. KCM is Kansas City. N/S is the Northern and Southeastern regions of the state. General Election Matchup

             All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom Wht Blk STL Sub
McCaskill    47% 88%  7% 46% 43% 51% 42% 81% 78% 51%
Talent       47   6  89  45  50  44  54   5  16  44  
Gilmour       2  --   2   4   3   1   2  --   1   2   
Other/undec   4   6   2   5   4   4   2  14   4   3   

Fav/Unfav      Now    8/31
McCaskill    51%/44% 50%/41%
Talent       50 /45  49 /45
Gilmour      16 / 7   8 / 5

'06 Imponderable Of The Day

Given how treacherous Indiana is for the GOP right, might not Tim Roemer (D) have Sen. Dick Lugar on the ropes right now?

HPN: Tie In TX 22?

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Quorum Report -- Tie In TX 22? Write-ins get 35%, Lampson gets 36%

JohnCombest.com -- Medicare Is Hot Issue In MO Senate Race

Sayfie's Review -- Second Crist-Davis Debate Tonight

Capitol Fax -- Despite bankruptcy threats, ILans still want freeze

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Leads In Public Polls But Hasn't Closed The Deal

NHNewslinks.com -- Hodes, Bass Offer Sharp Contrast On Iraq

The Daily Troika: Et Tu, Duncan?

The world -- well, Fox News -- is abuzz with the news that the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Duncan Hunter (R-CA) plans to announce at 2:00 pm ET that he might run for president in 2008.

Hunter told Fox News Channel Sunday, "I'm going to make an announcement about a national campaign in '08." He didn't elaborate, other than to say it would be made from the waterfront "where I started my humble career in 1980."

If he opens an exploratory account today, he can raise money while he's still the chairman of the powerful committee.

The Club For Growth's Andy Roth notes his "protectionism" streak. SC Hotline's Joshua Gross, a former Hunter aide, speculates on what type of campaign his ex-boss might run, and who some of his SC friends might be.

Squibs

Does he run as a Tancredo-esque strong borders advocate? Does he position himself as the race's only true conservative? Has anyone in the party urged him to run? Has anyone in the party told him how bad it looks to announce something like this a week before his party may get a shellacking?

House Race Hotline Update: Bass Fishing

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

The NRCC just spent $365K on an ad in Rep. Charlie Bass' (R-NH 02) CD. Their last-minute buy suggests GOPers have newfound concerns about holding onto Bass' seat.

Bass is running in a Dem-leaning CD, but he's increased his margins of victory each cycle. He's distanced himself from the GOP in ads while criticizing wasteful spending. But atty. Paul Hodes (D), in his second run, has relentlessly attacked Bass over the war in Iraq.

They each have opposite problems. Hodes has gotten traction for his strident criticism of Bass, but that's his only claim-to-fame. Polls show many voters still don't know much about him. Hodes' ads have also lacked the production quality of other funded candidates. But Bass hasn't spent time responding to Hodes, preferring to highlight his own record.

The DCCC is now going up with a sizable ad buy of their own, and their internal polling suggests the race is tied. Meanwhile, John McCain and Laura Bush are providing Bass with last-minute help.

Will all politics be local, or will the GOP label be too costly for Bass this time? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Special Sunday Brunch -- 9 Days To Go

A quick rundown of can't miss Sunday developments

• This week's Newsweek poll continues to show Dems in a strong position but the poll also found some small movements toward the GOP. Dems led the generic ballot among LVs 53-39% and among RVs, the Dems led 49-38%. Last week, the Dems' generic ballot lead in this poll was 18 points. And for the third poll in a row, Pres. Bush's job rating inched up two points to 37%. Also of note from the poll: 55% of RVs say they've seen the stem-cell TV ad starring Michael J. Fox; 62% of those who saw believe the ad was "acceptable" while 32% said the ad was "too extreme."

• Have the Dems caught up to the GOP in terms of GOTV? Some Dems believe so, others are skeptical. NYT's Nagourney has the details. BTW. check out the "snow bird" GOTV effort being made in FL 22.

• DCCC sent a release late Saturday proclaiming the following: "Iraq to dominate the final days of the campaign." From the release: “In the final week of this campaign, individual Republican support for the war in Iraq will be central to the closing argument against them." The release then listed a dozen GOP candidates they planned to target on the issue.

• L.A. Times' Hamburger and Wallsten write on Karl Rove's last minute tactics: "Rove is giving a virtuoso performance designed to prevent the Democrats from taking control of the House and Senate or, if that is no longer possible, to hold down the size of the Democratic victory to make it easier for the GOP to come back in 2008. His plan is three-pronged: to reenergize any conservatives who may be flagging; to make sure the GOP's carefully constructed campaign apparatus is functioning at peak efficiency; and to put the resources of the federal government to use for political gain." This piece does not mention that the authors of this piece also have a book titled "One Party Country The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century."

• Bush: L.A. Times' Brownstein writes on Bush's campaign war-time rhetoric and notes that unlike his wartime POTUS predecessors, Bush accentuates the differences to a greater degree. ... Yesterday, Bush campaigned in IN 09 with Rep. Mike Sodrel, the one Indiana GOPer the party believes is the most savable.

• Did we know Judith Miller was back in Iraq?

• Joe Biden's back in Iowa this week, campaigning with IA 02 Dem nominee Dave Loebsack in Cedar Rapids on Tuesday, 10/31.

• CT SEN: The New York Times endorses Ned Lamont arguing that Joe Lieberman hasn't shown a "capacity" to grow and change.

• MD SEN/MD GOV: Don't be surprised if the GOP tries to push back hard on today's Washington Post poll showing Dems Ben Cardin and Martin O'Malley sporting double-digit leads over Michael Steele and Bob Ehrlich respectively. The last time the Post polled Maryland, some complained the poll over-sampled African-Americans.

• MO SEN: The DSCC is up with two new I.E. ads (ad 1 and ad 2)both of a populist/jobs nature. Can someone say, "Reagan Democrats"? Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has the race tied, not "basically" tied, but "actually" tied at 47%.

• MT SEN: According to Bob Novak, Sen. Conrad Burns (R) made a "personal appeal" to the WH for the party to come back in to help him.

• NJ SEN: A Research 2000 poll conducted for the Bergen Record has Dem Bob Menendez leading GOPer Tom Kean Jr. 48-42%.

• TN SEN: Ah, Facebook. Remember the Bob Corker daughter who was caught in a, um, interesting pose? Well, one local columnist wonders if this is now fair game considering where this race between Harold Ford Jr. and Corker has gone recently.

• KS 02: Dice roll? The DCCC is up with its first ads in against Rep. Jim Ryun (R).

• LA 02: Remember embattled Rep. Bill Jefferson (D-LA 02)? If his chief foe's polling is correct, he's headed for a runoff. State Rep. Karen Carter's campaign released a poll (conducted by Brilliant Corners) showing her and Jefferson tied at 25%. And in a runoff matchup, she led Jefferson by 20 points.

• CO GOV: Could Bill Ritter lead to a clean sweep of every statewide office? Right now, only the incumbent/appointed GOP AG is leading (but is polling at just 42%).

• ID GOV: Shocker! A Mason-Dixon poll has the GOV race "basically" even with GOP Rep. Butch Otter up by just a point over '02 Dem nominee Jerry Brady. In the hot open House seat, the GOPer leads by just 2 points.

• IL GOV: Another Blagojevich scandal... really? A new Research 2000 poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has Blagojevich up 9 points over GOPer Judy Baar Topinka despite having upside down favorable ratings. How unhappy are IL voters with their GOV choices? The little-known indie candidate is polling in double digits!

• IA GOV: Des Moines Register endorses Dem Chet Culver.

• MA GOV: Worst kept secret in Boston? The Globe endorses Deval Patrick

• NV GOV: If it's possible, things are getting weirder in this race. Now GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons, "accused by a Las Vegas cocktail waitress of assaulting and propositioning her, said Saturday he'd be willing to take a polygraph if needed to prove his innocence," according to an AP report.

• TX GOV: Gov. Rick Perry (R), while polling under 40%, still has a double-digit lead in a new Houston Chronicle/Zogby Int'l phone poll. Perry has 38% to Chris Bell's (D) 22% and Carole Strayhorn's (I) 21%. Kinky Friedman registers with just 11%.

The Saturday Brunch

Latest NRCC TV Buys…..Hastert on the “clear” choice….Negron notice back up in FL 16…. Bush’s election week schedule….

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

WHAT'S BREWING

Lynne Cheney, Steamy Lesbian Love, and Jim Webb

Lynne Cheney was in the "Situation Room" this afternoon and was asked about Jim Webb's comments that her books contain explicit sexual descriptions:

Cheney: "Jim Webb is full of baloney. I have never written anything sexually explicit. His novels are full of sexual explicit references to incest, sexually explicit references -- well, you know, I just don't want my grandchildren to turn on the television set. This morning, Imus was reading from the novels, and it's triple-X rated."

CNN's Blitzer: "Here's what the Democratic Party put out today, the Democratic Congressional -- Senatorial Campaign Committee: 'Lynne Cheney's book featured brothels and attempted rape. In 1981, Vice President Dick Cheney's wife, Lynne, wrote a book called "Sisters", which featured a lesbian love affair, brothels and attempted rapes.' ... In 1988, Lynn Cheney wrote about a Republican vice president who dies of a heart attack while having sex with his mistress.' Is that true?"

Cheney: "Nothing explicit."

Blitzer: "There's nothing in there about rape and brothels?"

Cheney: "Well, Wolf, could we talk about a children's book for a minute?"

Blitzer: "This is an opportunity for you to explain on these sensitive issues."

Cheney: "I have nothing to explain. Jim Webb has a lot to explain."

More Cheney: "Jim Webb is full of baloney" (CNN, 10/27).

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Three's Company: State Rep. Joe Negron (R), venture capitalist Tim Mahoney (D) and insurance agent Emmie Ross (I), sparring over stem cell research...and their ties to ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R). Asked about the "Foley factor" in the race, noting that Mahoney and Ross were "long shots" before Foley resigned, Mahoney responded: "We were on track to beat Mark Foley."

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Today On Hotline TV: Hi, I'm Mr. Opportunity...

This week on Hotline TV, Chuck and John parse the latest Diageo/Hotline poll (all you Obamaniacs tune in), shine the spotlight on the year's biggest missed opportunities, wonder how GOP Gov candidates got swept up in the Dem wave, and ask where prominent '08ers are with their checkbooks.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Whitehouse Picking Up Undecideds? A Rhode Island College Bureau of Gov't Research and Services poll; conducted 10/23-25; surveyed 408 RVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/26). Tested: Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) and ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse (D). Party ID breakdown: 30%D, 14%R, 56%I/O.

General Election Matchup         No leans
(W/leans)        All Dem GOP Ind 10/4 6/15
Whitehouse       51% 78%  5% 48% 40%  40%
Chafee           43  16  93  45  37   43
Other/undec       6   6   2   7  23   17

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates" »

On The Download: Betting The House

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Just more than a week after Congress and President Bush made gambling online more difficult, OTD is betting the House -- and the Senate, and the '08 field. We've collected your best bet sites for midterm wagers:

For office pools, nothing beats Washington Post's Midterm Madness interactive online game. The WaPo is known for having one of the best newspaper Web sites (and IT staff) in the country, but dot-com team outdid themselves this time with interactive flash and graphics.

The gambling type can also create office pools for '06 at the less flashy and easy-to-use Predict06.com. The site also features open response forms to play pundit with the upcoming election.

Fantasy Congress lets users "play politics" literally by drafting a Congressional dream team and getting points when your players, er - members, move bills.

What are the odds? Intrade.com has an exhaustive list of markets, from the chances George Allen will win the presidency in '08 to whether the GOP will retain control of the Senate in '06.

Finally, for the White House: The Iowa Futures Market started out as a research tool, but has earned a reputation for predicting the '08 field.

Continue reading "On The Download: Betting The House" »

Michigan Senate: NRSC Still Playing, SomeWhat

The NRSC transferred $400K worth of coordinated funds to Bouchard today (Hotline sources, 10/27).

Continue reading "Michigan Senate: NRSC Still Playing, SomeWhat" »

House Race Rankings Updated

There aren't too many shake-ups this week. Focus mainly on races ranked 17 to 36; they are among the closest contests in the country right now. The first 10 are all but gone for the majority party, and districts ranked 11 through 16 are teetering but still in play.

The Hotline's House Race Rankings

The Daily Troika: Obama And Independents

Speaking of polls, Fox News had some interesting head to heads in its national poll of 900 likely voters conducted 10/24 and 10/25.

                 D        R           I
Obama     38%  69%        9%        34%
McCain    41%  13%       73%        36%   
Undec.    21%  18%       18%        29%

Clinton  39%   74%       10%         28%  
McCain   45%   14%       78%         46%
Undec.   15%   12%       12%         26%

Sen. Bill Frist sent an e-mail to his VolPAC list entitled "Save The House From Hillary!" He writes: "Hillary Clinton’s “top priority” these days is winning one election: Iowa’s 1st District congressional election. Why? Because she believes if Democrats win this seat they will control the House of Representatives." So he asks his list to contribute to Mike Whalen (R).

Squibs

The NRSC Ad In New Jersey

A $3.5 million buy, the ad is produced by OnMessage, Inc.

Voiceover: ANNCR: If it sounds like corruption…..it is.
Listen: TAPE: “Menendez will consider that a favor.”
ANNCR: That’s Bob Menendez’s top advisor pressuring a government contractor.
TAPE: “Menendez asked me to do it.”
ANNCR: He said Bob Menendez asked him to do it. Political boss Bob Menendez.
It’s Hudson County Corruption – in the name of Bob Menendez -- just before the FBI stepped in.
If Menendez won’t resign…..New Jersey has to do it for him.

Consultant's Corner: Young Candidates On The M.A.P.

What started off as a favor became a life-changing event for Sam McCabe, a student at TX State Univ. in San Marcos, TX. McCabe, 23, managed the campaign of Chris Jones, a fellow student running for a seat on the San Marcos City Council in 11/05. Jones defeated a prof. for the seat during a 12/05 run-off, with half of the votes consisting of student voters. This was the first time a student won a city council seat since '73.

As a result, McCabe received praise for the much-publicized victory and in 7/06, he joined forces with students Jordan Anderson and Jude Prather, both 24, to create McCabe, Anderson and Prather (M.A.P.), a bipartisan political consulting firm. Due to ideological differences (McCabe is a Dem; both Prather and Anderson are GOPers), the firm selects candidates that are "student-friendly." In an attempt to fight student apathy, McCabe says M.A.P. has some ground rules for its clients. McCabe: "Our number one rule is you have to stay positive." [KATHERINE LEHR].

Continue reading "Consultant's Corner: Young Candidates On The M.A.P." »

Hotline After Dark -- Family Ties

Political ads, Pres. Bush's 2-day old presser, and the war in Iraq dominated cable news last night:

• CBS' Pitts profiled TN SEN for the "Evening News."
• MO SEN's Claire McCaskill was in the "Situation Room" and CNN's Crowley profiled MT SEN.
• MSNBC's Shuster profiled TN SEN for "Hardball."
• FNC's Cameron profiled VA SEN and FNC's Garrett profiled MN 01 for "Special Report."

Actor Michael J. Fox sat down with CBS' Couric:

Fox: "On any given day I have a thousand different things I can feel. I go through a million cycles. For example, right now this is a dearth of medication, not by design. I just take it and kicks in when it kicks in. Sometimes it kicks in too hard and then you get what you call dyskinesia, which is that rocking motion that I had when I did the commercial."

Couric: "Could you have waited to do that ad when you had less dyskinesia, for example?"

Fox: "Well, when do you know that's going to be?"

Couric: "In fact, Rush Limbaugh suggested you had failed to take your medication intentionally so when you did that ad you'd be more symptomatic and therefore, more sympathetic."

Fox: "The irony of it is, I was too medicated."

Couric: "I called Rush Limbaugh and he told me, 'I believe Democrats have a long history of using victims of various things as political spokespeople because they believe they are untouchable, infallible. They are immune from criticism.'"

Fox: "Well, first thing, he used the word victim, and in another occasion, I heard him use the word 'pitiable.' And I don't understand, nobody in this position wants pity. We don't want pity. I could give a damn about Rush Limbaugh's pity or anyone else's pity. I'm not a victim. I'm someone who's in this situation. I'm in this situation with millions of other Americans. ... And we have a right, if there's answers out there, to pursue those answers with the full support of our politicians. And so I don't need anyone's permission to do that.

Couric: "Would you support a Republican candidate?"

Fox: "I have. Arlen Specter is my guy. I've campaigned for Arlen Specter. He's been a fantastic champion of stem cell research" (CBS, 10/26).

And ex-NJ Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) stopped by "LKL":

On the NJ gay marriage ruling: "I thought it was a step in the right direction. I mean the court recognized the importance of providing for full constitutional benefits for two individuals provided they're in love and they're willing to make that commitment. I would have preferred them to take the next step and also embrace the notion of marriage."

On the Mark Foley scandal: "It's tragic, I mean on a number of fronts" (CNN, 10/26).

RNC Axes Ohio Ad Buy

Dem media buyers picked it up, and the RNC confirmed it. No more RNC TV for Mike DeWine.

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

The Republican National Committee confirms it will not be on the air in the final week of Mike DeWine's campaign, canceling its ad reservations throughout Ohio.

Aaron McLear, RNC spokesman, says the party will continue its on-the-ground efforts and staff support for Ohio Republicans, and says he understands DeWine has about $2.8 million available for his own commercials.

But no more money for RNC ads as of Tuesday. The party canceled its air time reservations.

Seven Reasons Why Karl Rove Is Optimistic

Ok, well, actually, we can’t break into Rove’s head and we don’t know why he’s personally confident. Many speculate that the veneer of hope masks unalloyed fear. But here are seven reasons cited by people who also read “THE polls” and who are in regular commerce with Rove, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor.

Let’s define our term, first. “Optimism” doesn’t mean that these Republicans are convinced that they’ll pick up seats. The White House knows that its majorities in both chambers will be reduced. Optimism also doesn’t imply that these Republicans are blind to the probability of a Dem House takeover and the possibility of a Dem Senate takeover.
What optimism means is that these Republicans believe that there are enough reasons to believe that Republicans can hang on to enough seats in the House and enough in the Senate to barely miss the guillotine.

Reason 1 -- Senior Republicans have all but conceded… heck, they’ve conceded… eight to ten House races. In these races, in Republican internal polls that Rove trusts, the Dem candidate consistently outpolls the Republican candidate outside the margin of error. There are about 20 additional races where the D candidate either leads the R candidate WITHIN the margin, trades leads with the Republican, or occasionally leads outside the margin of error. The Rove Optimist believes that the national Republican turnout effort – the 72 Hour Program – can add one to two percent to the margins of Republicans. So if these Republicans can stay within the margin of error – within two points – of Democrats until Election Day, there’s a chance that Republicans can eek out victories in 70 percent of those contested races. Many of these races are located in congressional districts won by President Bush. Many involve incumbents who have had time to develop party-independent personas. Many represent districts drawn especially to preserve their seats. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "Seven Reasons Why Karl Rove Is Optimistic" »

House Race Hotline Update: Back In The Fold?

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

Are rural, culturally conservative voters so dissatisfied with the GOP that they'll vote Dem? There have been some mixed signals from polls and anecdotal evidence.

-- The new Bloomberg/LA Times poll in five SEN battlegrounds finds they seem to be sticking with the GOP despite their dissatisfaction with the country's direction.

-- But in certain CDs, values voters are making their displeasure known. Only 55% of born-again Christians said they'd vote for scandal-plagued Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA 10) in a just-released Keystone poll -- far below their normal support for a GOPer. And nearly every ad from Chris Carney (D) has referenced values.

-- Like Carney, other Dems are targeting values voters in key races. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) aired a recent radio ad critical of Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH 15) primarily on Christian stations. Ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D) has highlighted his opposition to gay marriage in his IN 09 ads.

-- SEN candidates play to a much broader audience. But certain Dem House candidates are strategically focusing on disaffected social conservatives. If Dems pick up seats in IN 08, KY 04, and MN 01 -- to name a few more -- their margin of victory could well come from churchgoing GOPers. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Today On Hotline TV: Prediction Time!

We're ready to make a few more predictions, so we spend today calling the races. Some surprises, perhaps?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

On The Trail: The Eight Races To Watch

I dread the last two weeks of every election cycle. Self doubt seeps in with every new poll release. Thoughts from two months ago seem silly now.

In trying to stay sane, I'm focusing on eight races (three Senate and five House) and learning everything I can about them. How these eight end up on Nov. 7 will tell us everything we need to know about this cycle from personality to demographics to issues.

My "Elite Eight" picks are: Missouri Senate, Tennessee Senate, Virginia Senate, Fla.-22, Ky.-03, Ohio-01, Conn.-02 and N.C.-11.

The Senate trio is an obvious pick because the party that wins two of those three is likely to control the chamber come January.

But I chose the five House races because they exemplify larger trends. Individually, they are interesting (albeit not necessarily the most hotly contested), but each represents a bigger part of the national story that is shaping this cycle.

Continue reading Chuck Todd's On The Trail

The Daily Troika: Common Wealth

MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) "Commonwealth" PAC announced FL Gov. Jeb Bush fundraiser Ann Woods Herberger is joining their PAC as a National Finance Advisor. From '89-'91, Herberger served as the Western Regional Dir. for the RNC's major donor program. She took a leave from the RNC in '92 to serve as the Deputy Finance Dir. for the Bush-Quayle campaign. Herberger then served as Jeb Bush's Finance Dir in his '97 and '02 campaigns.

Sen. John McCain's "Straight Talk America" PAC announced that 50 NH State Reps have joined the PAC to form a legislative advisory cmte "to counsel" McCain on "issues involving" the '06 elections (release, 10/26).

Also, 10 New Jersey State Senators came aboard: Senators Peter Inverso (Mercer and Middlesex Counties) and Bill Gormley (Atlantic County). Assembly members Bill Baroni (Mercer and Middlesex), Jennifer Beck (Monmouth), Francis Blee (Atlantic), Jon Bramnick (Union, Essex, and Morris), Steve Corodemus (Monmouth), Amy Handlin (Monmouth and Middlesex), Sean Kean (Monmouth), and Samuel Thompson (Monmouth and Middlesex).

Today marks the 39th anniversary of McCain being shot down over Vietnam, a fact which AL Gov. Bob Riley mentioned while introducing McCain this a.m. in AL

The JohnKerry.com list broke fundraising records this a.m., raising $900K for 4 SEN races in TN, MO, NJ, and VA in only 48 hours. The listserve raised the money after e-mails were sent from both Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL).

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) will visit SC 10/26-27, where he will make campaign stops in Charleston, Orangeburg, and Columbia. Dodd will hold a happy hour with the Charleston Dems and the SC Young Dems today. On 10/27, Dodd will have breakfast with Orangeburg officials before holding a fundraiser at the SC Dem HQ in Columbia (release).

Today's Blogometer: Iraq Is King

If you were hoping gay marriage, stem cells, or new Foley scandal revelations would bounce Iraq out of the top issue spot this cycle, you're gonna be disappointed. Perhaps court decisions granting marriage rights to gays just don't carry the shock value they used to. But whatever the reason, few bloggers are predicting the issue will be a boon for the GOP this time around. Instead, local issues/scandals are dominating even the nat'l 'sphere. In TN, race baiting is front and center, while MD and MO races have bloggers focussed on stem cells. But everywhere, Iraq is the underlying issue. The one keeping Pres. Bush away from districts where he took 62% in '04.

GAY MARRIAGE: October Unsurprise

Plenty of blogger reaction to New Jersey Supreme Court's decision to grant gay couples the same marriage rights as straight couples, but little of it election focussed. National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez suggests the Family Research Council "folks" she recently was with "now have their reason to vote" but she also doesn't believe the decision will help State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) since "he's against a federal marriage amendment."

Kausfiles suggests Dems may have dodged a "Big Gay Bullet" when the court granted gay couples rights without calling it marriage thus avoiding "having the state instantly become, in AP's pre-anticipatory words, "the nation's gay wedding chapel." Hot Air's Allahpundit also sees "no effect" for the GOP this fall. Right Angle Blog's Chris Field, however, does argue that the "The N.J. court just gave the Republican Party a major campaign issue."

Continue Reading Today's Blogometer.

PolitiScope: The Shame Game

You know who they are, those unopposed or "safe" lawmakers in each party, who amass huge war chests and then... sit on them, quietly declining to offer much help to vulnerable colleagues publicly begging for cash. With money a decisive factor in the up-for-grabs battle for control of both chambers, those members, particularly House Democrats, are coming under increasing pressure to pony up. Whose money is it anyway? Read more in Hotline senior editor John Mercurio's new "PolitiScope."

Hotline/Diageo Poll: The Final Snapshot

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

It's the last Diageo/Hotline poll before the midterms! Check out some of these key highlights:

• Pres. Bush's job approval has sunk again, down to 40% among both likely voters and all respondents. That's down from 42% last month, but higher than the summer, when he registered in the high 30's.
• Dems lead the generic ballot 52%-34% among likely voters and 49%-34% among all registered voters. That's up from a 46%-33% LV lead last month. Dems lead among indies 39%-24%, while 10% of GOPers say they'll vote Dem compared with just 3% of Dems going the other way.
• The war in Iraq dominates the national discussion, as 39% of LVs say the matter is the most important issue facing the nation today (of those, just over a quarter say they support the war, while barely under 3/4's say they oppose it). Coming in second on the most-important list: Terrorism, at 11%, and the economy, at 10%.
• For the second month in a row, ex-Pres. Clinton is the most popular person we've surveyed (61%/34% fav/unfav), besting Sen. McCain (54%/28%), Pres. Bush (41%/55%) and his own wife (51%/43%).
• But this month, we tested some new names. He's all the buzz at the moment, right? But what if we're underestimating Sen. Barack Obama's national glamour? His fav/unfavs stand at 40%/14% among LVs, while a full 42% of RVs don't know his name. And Bob Woodward's just as popular, at 40%/16% among LVs, though his name ID drops off significantly (24%/12%) among RVs.
• Ah, the expectations game. 50% of LVs now think the Dems will have the majority in Congress after January's inauguration, up from 42% last month. Manage those expectations, Madam Speaker-to-be.
• Ethics, by the way, are important. They're just not as important as war. By a 76%-12% margin, LVs said they would rather Congress focus on the war in Iraq as a top priority rather than ethics. A much smaller 60%-29% majority said terrorism should take precedence over ethics.
• And for those of you who are convinced that every pollster's party ID breakdown is off, we took the liberty of re-weighting our results to '04 turnout (37%D, 37%R, 24%I/O). As it, well, turns out, GOPers get better just about across the board -- by a point or two. Dems still lead the generic ballot 51%-37%, Bush's approval ratings still hover at 41%, and 30% still say they will vote to replace their members of Congress. Oh, and Congress's job approval rating doesn't get any better. It's mired at 23%, both with the present breakdown and the '04 breakdown.

Check out the complete results and topline data at the Diageo/Hotline poll's website.

Nasty Ad Of The Day: NRCC In 0H 01

Basically, the ad suggests that OH 01 Dem John Cranley wants to taser 7 year olds.

Via Take Back Cincinnati

Announcing The Hotline Political Network

Today, we roll out our special affiliation with some of the premiere political websites across the country. We're calling it the Hotline Political Network.

Over the next few months, we hope to build your headquarters for the best state political coverage anywhere.

We've already begun to affiliate with some of the nation's premiere state political news and analysis websites. If your state isn't taken and you'd like to submit your site, e-mail us for more information.

Hotline and National Journal subscribers get special access to exclusive content, but everyone, everywhere, gets an access portal to the latest news and analysis from states, cities and counties.

Member sites include

NH -- Dr. Bill Siroty's Newslinks (and a special affiliation with the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm's.)

FL -- Sayfie's Review, read by everyone from Jeb Bush to Bob Graham to Katherine Harris.

MO: JohnCombest.com -- where Missouri gets its political fix

IL -- The Capitol Fax Blog -- Your Illinois News Radar

WI -- WisPolitics.com -- Wisconsin's Premiere Political News Service

TX -- Harvey Kronberg's The Quorum Report -- -- Reporting Texas Politics Since 1983.

Hotline After Dark -- A Fox Guarding Rush's House?

As the Election countdown continues, news outlets continue to profile the big races. The "Playboy" ad in TN SEN continues to get a lot of talk, as does the Michael J. Fox/Rush Limbaugh controversy:

• NBC's Brian Williams anchored "Nightly News" from OH last night and profiled the SEN race.
• ABC's Reynolds profiled TN SEN for "World News."
• "Tucker" had on MO SEN's Claire McCaskill.
• "Special Report" profiled MD and MO SENs.
• "Situation Room" had on OH SEN's Mike DeWine and Sherrod Brown.
• "LKL" live had on DeWine, TN SEN's Harold Ford and McCaskill.
• "AC 360" profiled MN SEN.

Tidbits from the candidates:

Ford: "I don't support gay marriage. I supported both amendment -- both efforts in the Congress to amend the constitution" ("LKL," CNN, 10/25).

McCaskill: "Michael J. Fox approached our campaign, asked if he could help after I gave the national address for the Democratic Party on stem cell research. He has shown incredible courage and commitment" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 10/25).

On Limbaugh's criticism of Fox: "Only in politics would someone, I think, have the nerve to belittle Mr. Fox this way. ... This is a difficult issue for many people and many people disagree with my position. And I'm deferential to them and I respect them. I certainly think that Mr. Fox deserves that same respect" ("LKL," CNN, 10/25).

DeWine, on Brown criticizing his Intel Cmte work: "You know it's ironic for Sherrod Brown to talk about intelligence. This is a man who voted 10 different times in the 1990's to slash our intelligence. He was in the minority even of his own party. Then after September 11th when we all came together, Democrats and Republicans alike and we passed the patriot act 98 to one in the Senate. Sherrod Brown was one of 66 House members to vote no. And just recently he voted no again on the patriot act. He has a pre-9/11 mentality about terrorism and about intelligence" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/25).

Brown: "The fact is that Mike DeWine is just trying to change the subject because he has failed on the economic situation in Ohio. And more than that, he's failed as a member, 12-year member of the intelligence committee. He never asked the tough questions in the war on Iraq. He brought faulty intelligence. He never demanded of the president a plan to win" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/25).

PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

And don't forget Pres. Bush held a presser yesterday:

CNN's Malveaux: "If there was a message today, it was: I get it" ("AC 360," 10/25).

MSNBC's Shuster: "In the midst of the worst Iraqi violence and the greatest number of U.S. troop causalities in 12 months, today, a sober President Bush admitted what most Americans have been saying for a year: that the Iraq War is not going well" ("Hardball," 10/25).

FNC's Baier: "In his opening statement, President Bush departed from his practice of not talking about specific deaths in Iraq" ("Special Report," 10/25).

MSNBC's Olbermann: "What President Bush had to say about Iraq this morning in the White House East Room may not have been all that new nor noteworthy, except the fact that he was choosing to put himself in the position of having to say it at all" ("Countdown," 10/25).

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was on "AC 360" to discuss the presser: "I don't know one single piece of significant advice that Secretary Rumsfeld has given the president that has turned out to be correct" (CNN, 10/25).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "The only change I saw is the president started to acknowledge the position that the Democrats have held for a long time, a position which suggests this would be a year of change, that we would be talking to the Iraqi government in no uncertain terms about their responsibility to defend their own country, talking about timetables" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

Ford, Allen Statements on NJ Jersey Decision

First, from Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. (D-TN):

"I do not support the decision today reached by the New Jersey Supreme Court regarding gay marriage. I oppose gay marriage, and have voted twice in Congress to amend the United States Constitution to prohibit same-sex marriage. This November there's a referendum on the Tennessee ballot to ban same-sex marriage - I am voting for it."

“Today’s decision by the NJ Supreme Court is another example of activist judges inventing the law and subverting the will of the people. This is why I support the marriage amendment, because it will protect the values and views of the people of Virginia from judges who would want to impose their elitist views on us. This is a clear difference between my opponent and me – I support protecting marriage from judges who do not understand their role: to interpret the law, not invent the law. My opponent does not. “My opponent says that this amendment would infringe upon the rights of ordinary Virginians, and he opposes it. But I and many members of the Virginia Assembly joined in asking the Attorney General of Virginia to render an opinion. His response: ‘I can find no legal basis for the proposition that passage of the marriage amendment will limit or infringe upon the ordinary civil and legal rights of unmarried Virginians’. “This amendment does exactly what it says it does; it defines marriage as being between one man and one woman, and I’m for marriage between a man and a woman while my opponent is against it.”

NRSC To Invest As Much As $5M In New Jersey

Two independent sources tell the Hotline that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided to spend as much as $5 million between Friday and November 7 in a last ditch effort to dislodge Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez from office.

An NRSC spokesman declined to confirm the existence of the advertising blitz.

According to the two sources, both of whom have detailed and first-hand knowledge of the buy, the NRSC has reserved about $3.2 million worth of time in the ultra-expensive New York City market. One source said the NRSC would spend in excess of $1.5 million in Philadelphia. That portion of the buy could not be confirmed.

The NRSC believes that Menendez's negative ratings are higher than the mean for safe incumbents, and strategists note how the media’s focus on a federal investigation touching Menendez helped push Tom Kean Jr. into a narrow lead in September.

Though Menendez appears to have regained a slim lead, Republicans believe that his support among independents is still a bit soft and even waning.

The calculus may be this: between the NRSC and RNC, Republicans can't throw any more money in VA, MO or TN (and RI). So the NRSC is sitting on a pile of cash. They can't go into Ohio. They can't go into WA. That leaves MD (Steele), MI (Bouchard) or NJ (Menendez). $5M to Menendez may mean that NRSC has decided not to spend the money in MD or in MI, even as a GOP poll today put Steele within three of Cardin in MD.

Incidentally, the DSCC this p.m. released its latest internal survey of Maryland: Cardin leads by 12, 52 to 40.
Dems are confident they'll hold New Jersey, but they'll have to spend a little more money to achieve ad parity with the GOP.

(The ad buy was set in motion before today's gay marriage ruling, which may shake up cultural conservatives in parts of the state. Both Kean and Menendez oppose the federal marriage amendment. [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]

Schumer And Dole Duel At The Press Club

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

In a joint appearance today at the National Press Club, NRSC Chair Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) predictably sought to raise hopes and lower expectations -- respectively – thirteen days before midterm elections.

“No one on our side of the Senate is breaking out the champagne just yet,” Schumer said in his opening remarks. He stopped short of saying his camp would retake the majority, saying Democrats were “on the edge of being able to take back the Senate.” In his usual bout of partisan rhetoric, Schumer criticized the Bush administration for failed policies and something about a "rubber stamp." He noted that GOP Senate candidates don’t talk about Iraq or use the words “Bush” or “Republican” in their advertisements.

Dole responded to argue otherwise and gave as an example Minnesota Senate candidate and Rep. Mark Kennedy recent ad on the situation in Iraq. She quoted the disclaimer at the end of the spot: “I approve this message, even though I know it may not be what you want to hear.”

But overall Dole mostly sought to stress how historically difficult midterm elections are for the party in the White House, especially Presidents in their second term. “Republicans candidates support President Bush and the Iraq War,” Dole said. But she added, moments later, that “President Bush is not on the ballot.”

Continue reading "Schumer And Dole Duel At The Press Club" »

Romney On The NJ Marriage Ruling

Gov./Pres. candidate Mitt Romney (R-MA) on the NJ marriage ruling:

“I believe that the best and most reliable way to protect traditional marriage is through a federal marriage amendment, as opposed to letting activist judges make policy on a state by state basis.”

Tom Tom Drums In Background Of Corker Radio Ad?

TPM's Election Central hosts this radio ad that's playing in TN.

Radio talk show hosts in TN think they hear Tom Tom drums bang everytime Rep. Harold Ford Jr's name is mentioned in the Corker campaign ad.

The first time we listened to the ad, we didn't hear that. The second time, we think we did. It's hard to get into the mind of those producing the ad or laying the sound track. So we're not sure.

BTW: That Scott Howell ad featuring a throaty-voiced sexy gal is now off the air; it's been replaced in rotation with this ad:

“Harold Ford Jr. He’s slick. He’s smooth. But his record? A little shaky. Ford is Tennessee’s most liberal Congressman. He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood’s top X rated porn moguls. Ford talks values. But voted to recognize gay marriage. Voted for taxpayer-funded abortions twelve times. And wants to give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren. Harold Ford. Smooth talk. Extreme values. The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising.”

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Mo' For Murphy?: A Garin Hart Yang (D) poll; conducted 10/22-23 for atty/'04 nom. Lois Murphy (D); surveyed 404 LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 10/25). Tested: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) and Murphy.

General Election Matchup            Generic Cong. Ballot
Murphy               47%            Dem                  52%
Gerlach              44             GOP                  28
Other/undec           9

2. Spin City: The Free Enterprise Fund launched a few new ads today attacking MN 06 candidate Patty Wetterling (D), IL 06 candidate Tammy Duckworth (D), and IN 02 candidate Joe Donnelly (D). The new ad attacking Duckworth, called The Duckworth Code is particularly noteworthy.

3. Going Negative? The NRCC launched a new TV ad attacking Oneida Co. DA Michael Arcuri (D) in NY 24:

ANNCR: "Thomas Griffiths served hard time for felony sexual abuse. He was jailed again for another sex felony. He also registered as a sex offender. Michael Arcuri's office wrote a favorable letter to Griffiths' parole board. After his release, Griffiths committed yet another felony. Arcuri promised to create a safer community. Michael Arcuri. He has not created a safer community"

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Brownback Slams NJ Marriage Ruling

The first major national political figure to respond is.... Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS):

"The decision of the New Jersey Supreme Court only deepens the constitutional crisis with respect to the protection of traditional marriage, and warrants swift, decisive action by Congress in the form of passage of the Marriage Protection Amendment. Huge social changes should be decided by the people and their elected representatives and should not be forced by the courts.”

NJ Supreme Court Allows Same-Sex Unions, But...

doesn't say whether those unions should be called "marriage."

Here's the relevant paragraph of the decision:

HELD: Denying committed same-sex couples the financial and social benefits and privileges given to their married heterosexual counterparts bears no substantial relationship to a legitimate governmental purpose. The Court holds that under the equal protection guarantee of Article I, Paragraph 1 of the New Jersey Constitution, committed samesex couples must be afforded on equal terms the same rights and benefits enjoyed by opposite-sex couples under the civil marriage statutes. The name to be given to the statutory scheme that provides full rights and benefits to samesex couples, whether marriage or some other term, is a matter left to the democratic process

The state legislature has six months to act. If it wants to call same-sex unions "marriage," the court won't stand in its way.

NRSC To Invest $5M In New Jersey

Two independent sources tell the Hotline that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided to spend as much as $5 million between Friday and November 7 in a last ditch effort to dislodge Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez from office.

An NRSC spokesman declined to confirm the existence of the advertising blitz.

According to the two sources, both of whom have detailed and first-hand knowledge of the buy, the NRSC has reserved about $3.2 million worth of time in the ultra-expensive New York City market. One source said the NRSC would spend in excess of $1.5 million in Philadelphia. That portion of the buy could not be confirmed.

The NRSC believes that Menendez's negative ratings are higher than the mean for safe incumbents, and strategists note how the media’s focus on a federal investigation touching Menendez helped push Tom Kean Jr. into a narrow lead in September.

Though Menendez appears to have regained a slim lead, Republicans believe that his support among independents is still a bit soft and even waning.

The calculus may be this: between the NRSC and RNC, Republicans can't throw any more money in VA, MO or TN (and RI). So the NRSC is sitting on a pile of cash. They can't go into Ohio. They can't go into WA. That leaves MD (Steele), MI (Bouchard) or NJ (Menendez). $5M to Menendez may mean that NRSC has decided not to spend the money in MD or in MI, even as a GOP poll today put Steele within three of Cardin in MD.

Incidentally, the DSCC this p.m. released its latest internal survey of Maryland: Cardin leads by 12, 52 to 40.
Dems are confident they'll hold New Jersey, but they'll have to spend a little more money to achieve ad parity with the GOP.

(The ad buy was set in motion before today's gay marriage ruling, which may shake up cultural conservatives in parts of the state. Both Kean and Menendez oppose the federal marriage amendment. [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]

Today On Hotline TV: Distractions, Distractions

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Confessions Of A Regular Guy: Rep. Harold Ford (D) fessed up 10/24 to attending the '05 Playboy Super Bowl party. Ford: "I was there. I like football and I like girls. I don't have a ... no apologies for that." Ford's statement "comes as a tempest has swirled concerning" an RNC ad that has "received national attention" because some believe it "plays the 'race card'" by including "a scantily clad white woman with blonde hair" saying she met Ford at a Playboy party. RNC's Diaz: "The premise that race is involved in any way, shape or form is absolutely false" (Nashville City Paper).

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates" »

Erratum: Still Ad Time Left In CT 05

An On Call post reported that CT 05 Dem Chris Murphy's campaign was frustrated to find that all available television ad time in CT was sold out.

Not quite true: Murphy's campaign tells us it purchased a substantial amount of ad time yesterday. The DCCC has also increased its buy.

Murphy trails Rep. Nancy Johnson by a few points in the latest available public and private polling.

Bush On The Elections

Bush, on Dem hopes for a victory in Nov: "We got some people dancing in the end zone in DC, measuring their drapes. But the American people are going to decide and they're going to decide on who best to protect the American people and who best to keep the taxes low. I see that a lot of enthusiasm amongst the grassroots activists. .... Our people are going out there to man the phones and to put up the yard signs. They're showing up when it comes to these absentee votes. We're organized. We've got a fantastic grassroots organized ot turn out the vote. We've got good candidates running hard. We're going to win."

Bush: "The Ultimate Accountability Rests With Me"

Asked about Sec/Def. Don Rumsfeld, Bush: "I've asked him to do some difficult tasks" as Sec/Def. "I've asked him to wage war on two different fronts" and "transform our military" around the world "and here at home." More Bush: "I'm satisfied of how he's done all his jobs. He's a smart, tough, capable, administrator, as importantly, he understands that the best way to fight this war is to make sure to our troops are ready, that moral is high and that we transform the nature of our military to meet the threats. The ultimate accountability rests with me. .... That's what the 2004 campaign was about."

Gene Taylor Will Vote For Pelosi

GOPers -- don't get your hopes up that if the House teeters on the brink of flipping to the Democratic Party, conservative Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS) will switch parties or vote for a Republican as Speaker of the House.

His comm, dir, Courtney Littig, tells the Hotline that Taylor is committed to voting for Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

Taylor is the ranking member of the House Subcommittee on Projection Forces and has no intention of giving up his spot as chairman of that important position.

Political analyst/Fox News contributor/Almanac of American Politics co-author Michael Barone predicted a fairly evenly divided House and wondered what Taylor would do.

Bush: Our Goals In Iraq Are Unchanged

Speaking to reporters in the East Room of the White House, Pres. Bush acknowledged a sharp increase in sectarian violence in Iraq but insisted his administration was adapting quickly to the bloodshed and told Americans that pulling troops out of the country would immediately jeopardize nat. sec.

Bush said he was "not satisfied" about the conditions on the ground, calling "the events of the past month" a "serious concern to me and a serious concern to the American people." October was the deadliest month for US troops this year. But he warned against "disillusionment." Bush: "The American people will support the war as long as they see a path to victory. Americans can have confidence that we will prevail because thousands of smart ... dedicated military personnel are working around the clock ... risking their lives to ensure success." More Bush: "If I did not think our mission in Iraq was vital to America's security, I'd bring our troops home tomorrow." The consequences in Iraq will have a decisive impact on the security of our country. Defeating the terrorists in Iraq is essential to turning back the cause of extremists in the Middle East."

Bush, on the admin's posture toward the Iraqi government: "We're making it clear that America's patience is not unlimited. We will not put more pressure on the Iraqi government than it can bear. The way to succeed in Iraq is to help the Iraqi government grow in strength and assume more control of the country as quickly as possible."

Asked if the US is winning, Bush said "this war" is "a different kind of war" than the "fascists in World War II." This war "will take a long time" but said "Yes, I think we're winning." Bush: "As the enemy shifts tactics, we are shifting our tactics as well." More Bush: "Our goals are changing. We are flexible in our methods to achieve those goals."

Bush: "This notion about a fixed timetable for withdrawal means defeat. You can't leave until the job is done. Our mission is to get the job done as quickly as possible."

Reid Decides To Spend Election Night In Washington

Sen. Min. Leader Harry Reid and his entourage of aides will spend election night in Washington. instead of in Las Vegas, NV, an aide to Reid confirmed yesterday.

Reid planned to spend the evening at a Democratic victory celebration in his home state, but decided early this week that he could better monitor returns and conduct television interviews from Washington.

A Democratic leadership aide insists that Reid's location change should not be read as a sign that he believes Democrats will retake control of the Senate.

In fact, Reid's staff is planning for the next session under the assumption that Democrats will pick up four seats to hold 49. Privately, they're hopeful that Dems could win one, or two of the Big Three -- VA, TN or MO -- but they are not confident about those races yet, and probably won't be until they have reason to be on Nov. 7.

Outgoing Maj. Leader Bill Frist plans to spend his election night in Chattanooga, TN. [MARC AMBINDER]

Bloomberg / LA Times Poll: GOP Leads In TN, MO

The latest snapshot of the Senate races comes from Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times.

MISSOURI

Talent 48%
McCaskill 45%

Bush apprv. is 47% (Disapproval is 52%)
10% of the electorate is undecided.
** The stem cell research initiative has the support of 58% of the Missouri electorate.

TENNESSEE

Corker: 49%
Ford: 44%

Bush apprvl is 49% (Disapproval is 50%)
10% of the electorate is undecided.

VIRGINIA
Webb: 47%
Allen: 44%

Bush approval is 44% (Disapproval is 49%)
13% of the electorate is undecided.

Hotline After Dark -- The Night Time Tube Wars Has Never Been Better

As Election Day approaches, TV is profiling the competitive races:

• "NewsHour" looked at RI and CT SEN.


• "Special Report" looked at RI and TN SEN.


• "Situation Room" looked at TN and OH SEN.


• ABC's Charles Gibson anchored "World News" from MA, where the MA GOV race was examined.


• MSNBC's Keith Olbermann named NV GOV candidate Jim Gibbons his worst person.

MSNBC's "Decision 2006" day of programming examined several competitive races across the country:

MO SEN

MO SEN's Claire McCaskill (D), asked if it's Missour-e or Missour-a: "I really say both. You know, I went to the University of Missouri and the chair is Missoura Tigers. In St. Louis, most people say Missouri. I say both. I think you're safe ... if you say either one. If they think you're on purpose saying one or the other, you're probably in trouble. But if you naturally say both, you're probably safe."

More: "I'm a politician that says both. ... But, you know, my mouth gets me in trouble sometimes" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/24).

Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO), asked if Bush helps his campaign: "It depends on what issues that you're talking about. I mean, you talk about economic growth, for example. I mean, look what the economy is doing. He's a strong supporter of renewables. There are other areas where, you know, I disagree with him and I think Missouri does. I think a classic example of that is immigration. I mean, I'm not in favor of an amnesty. I support a border fence, and he's on the other side of those issues. But, sure, there is a whole lot of issues where Missouri is strongly in support of the president" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/24).

OH SEN

Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-OH): "If people in Ohio want to stay the course in Iraq and want to continue the same policies from Governor Taft to President Bush on jobs and health care and education, then they vote for Mike DeWine. But people want a senator instead who will stand up for the middle class and stand up for these interest groups" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/24).

Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH): "We have serious problems in Ohio. But, you know, the fundamental difference between Sherrod Brown and myself is, he talks about the economy and I do something about it. I've brought back $1.2 billion to the state in appropriations money, which will help jobs" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/24).

TN SEN

Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), on the "Playboy" ad: "We've got to run our race. I know that they are a little desperate and they are doing things you do when you get desperate in a campaign."

More: "If the Democrats were running an ad like that, I'd have it pulled."

On stopping by Corker's presser: "We're running for the Senate. He won't show up for any debates in the state. He was in Memphis. I dropped my to say hello. I said I would love to talk about Iraq with him, to talk about how Republican senators are coming around to our position, that what we're doing in Iraq is not working" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/24).

More Ford, on the "Playboy" ad: "I don't know what they're playing if it's race or not, but I do know it's sleazy and it's promoting smut and it's coming on during family programming time in my state. The question I have is if my opponent wants it down, he should be able to get it down. If he doesn't have the influence to convince Republicans in Washington to take a sleazy, awful, smut-pushing ad down in our state, how on earth can voters trust him to stand up for them in Tennessee to the Republicans?" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/24).

Corker, on Ford showing up at his presser: "I had a press conference. You know, we have one every day where we announce the issue of the day, if you will. And this big bus pulls up and Congressman Ford bounds off. And, really, it was a great day for us. I think we've seen this all along, but I think it called into question whether he has the temperament, the comportment, if you will, the ability to really have those statesman-like qualities that people are looking for in a United States Senator. It was certainly most unusual, if you will, and yet I think it was one of those moments -- everybody in the state is calling it the Memphis meltdown" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/24).

Corker, asked if he can take the "Playboy" ad down: "No, that's not true. We actually have been on national TV, as we are now. We've asked senators to call. These are independent expenditure groups. We want it down. ... Certainly it does not represent our campaign. We have nothing to do with it. We believe that it's tacky and has no place in this race."

CNN's Blitzer: "Have you called Ken Mehlman, the chairman of the Republican Party, and asked him to pull it?"

Corker: "Our campaign officials have talked to people at very high levels there and asked that this comes down. I don't know who specifically has talked to who, but I know it began the very first day" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/24).

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, on the TN SEN ad: "I don't have the authority to take it down or put it up. It's called an independent expenditure. The way that process works under the campaign reform laws is I write a check to an independent individual. And that person's responsible for spending money in certain states. Tennessee is one of them. ... I don't agree with that characterization of it. But it's not an ad that I have authority over. I saw it for the first time the same time that they did."

More: "I showed it to a number of people when the complaints came out about it after it was put up -- African-American folks, Hispanic folks and myself. We all looked at it. All of us, I think, are very sensitive to that. And we did not have that same reaction to it. So I just think there's a disagreement about it."

Mehlman: "I think that that ad talks about a number of people on the street talking about things that Mr. Ford allegedly has either done or a proposal he has for the future. I think it's a fair ad" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/25).

PA SEN

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), on state Treas. Bob Casey (D): "I think this is a guy who is not ready to do this job and doesn't have the skills to be able to take this job on."

MSNBC's Matthews: "Are you saying he is not smart enough to be a senator?"

Santorum: "I don't think he has the skills to take it. I am not going to talk about his intelligence. I'm talking about what he has shown in debates. This guy does two campaign events a week. He doesn't do interviews. He doesn't answer questions. He is simply hiding from the public."

Matthews: "Do you believe he's cut a dark deal that he's not telling us about to lighten up on abortion rights?"

Santorum: "Well, I can tell that Barbara Boxer and Chuck Schumer have said so. I don't know whether he has but they've come out and said he'll be with us on judges. That's what they say" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/24).

TX GOV

TX GOV candidate Kinky Friedman (I): "The early voting has started, and it's 60 percent higher than it was last time, which means that Texans are sharpening their pitchforks, and they're really voting. And let me tell you, the young people are voting, too. And we tell them, you know, if you are old enough to fight in Iraq, you're old enough to help us fix Texas. And you might as well be able to have a beer before you go over there and get shot at, you know?"

More: "We have 33,000 MySpace friends, and Barack Obama is in second place, with 12,000. And Hillary, I think, is at 11th" ("Situation," MSNBC, 10/24).

CHENEY'S STILL AN OPTIMIST

VP Cheney sat down FNC's Hannity:

On the '06 elections: "I'm optimistic. I think we'll hold both the House and Senate."

More: "I think there's a temptation and tendency in the national media ... to focus on the big issues. ... There we're talking about the global war on terror, the war in Iraq and the economy. ... And sometimes I think we overestimate a bit the extent of which these are national in scope. ... I don't think we should underestimate the extent of which a lot of these races will turn on local issues."

On Pelosi: "I think, frankly, she helps our cause" (FNC, 10/24).

IT'S KARL'S WORLD, WE JUST LIVE IN IT

Karl Rove talked to "All Things Considered":

On '06: "I see several things; first, unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races and after all this does come down to individual contests between individual candidates. Second of all, I see the individual spending reports and contribution reports. For example at the end of August in 30 of the most competitive races in the country, the house races, the Republicans had 33 million cash on hand and Democrats had just over 14 million."

NPR's Siegel: "We are in the home stretch though and many would consider you on the optimistic end of realism about."

Rove: "Not that you would exhibit a bias, you just making a comment."

Siegel: "I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at."

Rove: "No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally."

More Rove: "I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math" (NPR, 10/24). [EMILY GOODIN]

A Surprise Ad Buy

In its latest independent expenditure filing, the NRCC just bought ad time on behalf of Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN 03) after conducting a poll in the district last week. The buy totals over $72,000 -- a relatively small amount. The Democrats have a self-funding candidate running, Ft. Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst. But it's a solidly GOP district -- Pres. Bush won here with 68% in 2004, and Souder has won over 60% every cycle since 1998.

Outside Ohio, Indiana's provided the roughest state environment for the Republicans. Gov. Mitch Daniels' unpopularity (because of privatizing the Indiana Toll Road, implementing Daylight Savings' time) has made the re-election bids of Reps. Chris Chocola (R-IN 02), John Hostettler (R-IN 08) and Mike Sodrel (R-IN 09) very precarious. Could that same environment make Souder's re-election more challenging than he once expected? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

HRH Extra: Stemming The Tide?

Given the steady stream of bad news for Republicans, one would expect their most vulnerable candidates to be losing ground. But independent polls show that many targeted incumbents and open-seat candidates who have run strong, vigorous campaigns have actually improved their standing over the last month.

Rep. Clay Shaw (R-FL 22) leads state Sen. Ron Klein (D), 48-43%, in a new, post-Foley Research 2000 poll. And Klein, after spending $2.2M in the 3rdQ, only has $492K left to spend.

Despite the anti-Bush animus in CT, Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT 02) has narrowly led '02 nominee Joe Courtney (D) for some time in polls, reversing an early summer deficit in his internals.

And in IL 06, state Sen. Peter Roskam (R) seems to have weathered the Foley scandal. He's leading 43-39% over Iraqi war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) in a Chicago Tribune poll -- his first lead in a while.

Money, organization and candidate strength all make a difference even in a rough environment. There may indeed be a sizable wave, but these Republicans have written the blueprint of how to ride it. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

DCCC To Pop Eyes With New CT 04 Buy?

CT-4 Democrat Diane Farrell is ahead of where she was two years ago at this time when she was on her way to a narrow loss to incumbent Chris Shays. On Saturday, Farrell gave the Democratic response to the president’s weekly radio address. She followed that up with a more practical achievement when her campaign got Green Party candidate Richard Duffee to withdraw his name from the ballot before the deadline allowed by state law.

And the best news yet for the former Westport First Selectwoman: the DCCC is about to drop “an eye-popping” amount into the Farrell race. She’ll need it, as Shays, a doyen of campaign finance reform, has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars more than Farrell, who lost the 2004 race by 14,000 votes in one of the nation’s most affluent districts. [KEVIN RENNIE]

Continue reading "DCCC To Pop Eyes With New CT 04 Buy?" »

New Jersey Same-Sex Marriage Decision Tomorrow

Per the NJ State Supreme Court:

Expected Supreme Court Opinions for Wednesday, October 25, 2006 - Expected to be released at 3:00 p.m.

A-68-05 Mark Lewis, et al. v. Gwendolyn L. Harris et al.
(Mercer County & Statewide)
Argued 2/15/06
Does the New Jersey Constitution require the State to allow same-sex couples to marry?

In '02, two gay couples sued New Jersey for denying them the right to marry. The Supreme Court finally heard oral arguments in Feb. Consider the political repercussions if NJ becomes the second state in the country to legalize gay marriage.

"The New Jersey Supreme Court is famously assertive and famously liberal," one court watcher e-mailed us. " On the other hand, they have also been accused of being attuned to political undercurrents -- think of the Torricelli decision."

Gay rights advocates are fairly optimistic about the case on its merits but worry about the backlash if the court legalizes marriage for same-sex couples.

In November, voters in eight states will have the chance to ban same-sex marriage. So far this year, courts in CA, NY and WA have upheld bans on gay marriage. A Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) to the Constitution failed in the Senate.

It's fast becoming an article of faith among conservative political strategists that these marriage amendments do not, in fact, bring legions of angry conservatives to the polls. But without a doubt, if NJ legalizes gay marriage, many Republican incumbents will make sure to ask their Democratic incumbents whether they agree with the decision.

In TN and VA, Democrats Ford and Webb say they oppose gay marriage. Webb supports civil unions, though, and he plans to vote against Virginia's so-called "Super-DOMA," which, according to gay rights activists and some legal scholars, would make it harder to establish civil union-type arrangements. Ford supports the Tennessee constitutional amendment. He also supported the FMA in the House. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Like Pitching In Montreal: Ex-Phillies pitcher/Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) arrived in PA 07 to "lend his star power" to Rep. Curt Weldon (R) 10/22. Yet instead of finding "a classic campaign event," he found 200 GOPers on "an isolated rural estate." Bunning: "I've been to lots of these, but this is the first one I've attended that isn't on a paved road." The very private affair was "a fitting symbol for a campaign under siege" (Philadelphia Inquirer).

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Today On Hotline TV: Barack And Roll

The Obama fever has swept Hotline TV, and we'll Barack your world with WH '08 speculation ... or is it just about book sales? Whatever it is, we know, for now, other WH '08 Dems are between Barack and a hard place. Ba doom, ching!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Wishing And Hoping: If GOPers keep TN and VA, they could control of the Senate. Two New polls reveal how the races are heating up.

Lot More Dems Yet To Come Home: In VA, a Mason-Dixon poll; conducted 10/17-19; surveyed 625 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/24). Tested: Sen. George Allen (R) and ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Geographic abbreviations: NoVA is Northern Virginia. S/P is Shenandoah and the Piedmont. Rich is Richmond Metro area. Ham is Hampton Roads. L/S is Lynchburg and the Southside. R/S is Roanoke and SW VA.

General Election Matchup
             All Dem GOP Ind NoVA S/P Rich Ham L/S R/S 9/27 9/7 
Allen        47%  8% 90% 39% 40%  53% 53%  42% 53% 48% 43%  46% 
Webb         43  80   7  46  50   38  36   47  40  41  43   42 
Other/undec  10  12   3  15  10    9  11   11   7  11  14   12 

Bush As Pres.    Now 9/7 7/06       Fav/unfav      Now    9/27
Excel/good       42% 42% 43%        Allen        42%/39% 40%/32%
Fair/poor        56  57  56         Webb         34 /28  31 /20

Bush Handling Situation In Iraq     Bush Handling Economy
             All Dem GOP Ind                     All Dem GOP Ind
Approve      43% 10% 77% 37%        Approve      54% 12% 94% 51%
Disapprove   51  88  13  55         Disapprove   39  78   5  39

Think Accusations That Allen Used   Which Party Would You Prefer 
Racial Slurs While A Student At     Be In Control Of The Sen?
UVA Are ___? All Dem GOP Ind        Dem          45% 96%  4% 41%
True         30% 43% 16% 31%        GOP          43  --  90  35
False        28   8  50  23
Not sure     42  49  34  46

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates" »

Mehlman Defends Ford "Playboy" Ad

RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, on the TN SEN ad: "I don't have the authority to take it down or put it up. It's called an independent expenditure."

More: "I think it's a fair ad. ... I just think those criticisms of it are wrong" ("Decision 2006," MSNBC, 10/25).

On The Download: One Campaign Blitz

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Hollywood is returning it to politics in a big way with more than $1 million in ad time -- for free. The One campaign -- a coalition of non-profit humanitarian organizations aimed at allocating one more percent of the U.S. annual budget to anti-poverty causes -- has secured more than $1 million in free ad time on most of the major networks last night, in addition to getting the front page on the RNC, DNC , YouTube, MySpace, AOL and Yahoo! home pages today. The 30-second spot appeared on MTV Networks channels last night followed by time on CMT, Comedy Central, MTVu and News Corp's channels until Election Day and on the big screen at Times Square.

The ad features actor Matt Damon alongside a bipartisan montage of notable Red and Blue state celebs and politicos: Julia Roberts, New England quarterback Tom Brady, country star Toby Keith, actor Don Cheadle, actress Alfre Woodard, evangelical pastor Rick Warren, African-America faith leader Bishop Blake, former Clinton Press Secretary Mike McCurry and Bush advisor Jack Oliver.

Midweek Bytes:
*The man formerly known as Mystery Pollster Mark Blumenthal has a relatively new Web site in beta, www.Pollster.com, that maps all the major polls into easy-to-use chart format categorized by race.
*Points for creativity: Michigan Gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos announced the winners of his online video contest.
*Imagine the door-knocking possibilities: CNET.com reports that Google is imposing a Congressional map onto its Google Earth software
*More Web Ads: RNC's Tax Man and NRSC's Ford Unhinged.
*Happy Halloween from the NRSC, which put a spoof site about scary Jim Webb Monday.

Barbs and Jabs: Debate Highlights Of The Week

Hotline's Barbs and Jabs is now available on nationaljournal.com:
http://video.nationaljournal.com/barbs.ram

This week, we start off in CT, where Ned, Joe and Alan provide jokes, apologies, attacks and promises of beer.

Then, it's over to the MI Gov debate, where DeVos wants to talk about the tone of the debates and campaigns, while Granholm wants a Tiger.

Up to the RI SEN debate, where Whitehouse says the vote that counts is the one for Republican leadership, but Chafee can't think of a single mistake he's made. Also, he says he's just like a statue.

Pro-Bush Group Adds Democrats To Social Security Pledge

From CongressDailyPM:

An organization allied with President Bush's bid to establish payroll-tax funded Social Security accounts has added the signatures of more than 70 Democratic congressional candidates -- including 11 incumbent Democratic House members -- to a statement requiring that "all options be on the table" in the effort to revamp Social Security.

The statement, titled "A Promise to our Children and Grandchildren," was circulated to candidates in recent weeks by For Our Grandchildren, which is funded by the conservative American Institute for Full Employment. It does not specifically mention private accounts but would implicitly allow them to be considered. Democrats managed to sink Bush's Social Security overhaul effort last year by staying almost completely unified behind the premise that no negotiations would take place until personal accounts were taken out of play. The decision by 11 sitting Democrats to sign the For Our Grandchildren "promise" might represent the first significant sign of Democratic splintering. A senior administration official called the result "encouraging." Bush continues to support personal accounts and has vowed to tackle entitlement reform after the election. [KEITH KOFFLER]

Continue reading "Pro-Bush Group Adds Democrats To Social Security Pledge" »

The Daily Troika: Rudy In Iowa Election Eve

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will spend election night with IA GOV candidate Jim Nussle, following a break-neck week-long swing through the '06 battlegrounds. Giuliani will stump for Republican candidates in SC, PA, MI, FL, NJ and MD before ending up in Iowa, where he'll hold rallies for IA 01 candidate Mike Whalen and for Nussle. (Hotline sources)

Um, meanwhile: Pres Bush "is penciled in for a rally" with TX Gov. Rick Perry (R) on Election Eve (Austin American-Statesman).

"Serious members of both parties are prepared to seek a solution," Sen. Joe Biden (and Les Gelb) write in the Wall Street Journal today. On a conference call yesterday, Biden said that several senior Republican senators were prepared to negotiate with Democrats and endorse a new course for Iraq after the midterms. Biden refused to identify his secret supporters. The conference call was part of a very aggressive effort by the senior senator from DE to stamp his name on the Iraq debate going forward. There's a very good chance that he will succeed, and if he succeeds, there's a very good chance that his stature heading into the presidential race will be enhanced. Biden has been in this business long enough to know that a presidential run is his best (and last) chance to influence the direction of foreign policy and to fortify the Democrats' branding on that constellation of issues.

Squibs:

From First Read: MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Polls

From our partners at NBC News, check out First Read , and the horse race numbers from their latest Senate polls with McClatchy and Mason-Dixon.

Missouri...........TALENT (R) 43%........McCaskill (D) 46%
Montana...........BURNS (R) 43%.........Tester (D) 46%
New Jersey.....MENENDEZ (D) 45%...Kean (R) 42%
Ohio.................DEWINE (R) 40%.........Brown (D) 48%
Pennsylvania...SANTORUM (R) 39%...Casey (D) 51%
Rhode Island ....CHAFEE (R) 43%.........Whitehouse (D) 48%
Tennessee........Corker (R) 45%...........Ford (D) 43%
Virginia..............ALLEN (R) 47%...........Webb (D) 43%

Hotline After Dark: Bush And Social Security Redux

Pres. Bush sat down with CNBC's Bartiromo:

On the economy: "I really am please with the progress we've made on the economic front, but there's obviously still more work to be done. Just got to make sure we remain competitive and keep taxes low."

On gas prices: "Oil prices should be a reflection of supply-and-demand. Oil prices are a reflection of supply-and-demand coupled with a speculator's view of what the future may look like. And I think what you saw was some speculators trying, you know, heading in the other direction on the price of oil. What we've got to do in this country, however, is welcome low oil prices but continue to spend money to make sure we become less dependent on oil."

Bartiromo: "I'm curious, have you ever Googled anybody? Do you use Google?"

Bush: "Occasionally. One of the things I've used on the Google is to pull up maps. It's very interesting to see that. I forgot the name of the program, but you get the satellite and you can -- like, I kind of like to look at the ranch on Google, reminds me of where I want to be sometimes. Yeah, I do it some. I tend not to e-mail -- not only tend not to e-mail, I don't e-mail, because of the different record requests that can happen to a president. I don't want to receive e-mails because, you know, there's no telling what somebody's e-mail may -- it would show up as, you know, a part of some kind of a story, and I wouldn't be able to say, 'Well, I didn't read the e-mail. But I sent it to your address, how can you say you didn't?' So, in other words, I'm very cautious about e-mailing."

Bartiromo: "Is Wal-Mart good for this country, or does it put small business out of business?"

Bush: "I think Wal-Mart made a significant contribution to this country in terms of affordable goods as well as employing people. ... Obviously competition is a vital part of the American society, and people shouldn't fear competition. They ought to learn how to adjust and compete."

Bartiromo: "Aside from being a baseball fan, it's not a great time to be in Detroit these days, Mr. President."

Bush: "I'm going to meet with the automobile CEOs here after the midterm elections. I chose not to meet with them before the midterms because I didn't want to politicize their issues. And they understood that."

Asked his priorities for his final two years in office: "I want America to be the most competitive country in the world, and the best way to do that is for us to focus on engineering and science and make sure No Child Left Behind Act remains strong and vibrant so that our kids get the basic education. I do want to continue to make sure that we have alternative forms of energy available for our economy so they can remain competitive. I'm very worried about our dependency on oil from an economic security perspective and a national security perspective. I want to deal with the unfunded liabilities inherent in Social Security and Medicare. I believe we can do that, and at the same time assure those who are on Social Security they have nothing to worry about, and those who are going to pay into Social Security that we'll make sure you don't pay into a bankrupt system. So I've got some big items I want to work on, and I'm going to work hard to get them done."

Bartiromo: "What is the biggest risk to losing one of the houses of Congress in the midterm elections? Is it the reversal of the tax cut plan, or weakening the war in Iraq?" [EMILY GOODIN]

Continue reading "Hotline After Dark: Bush And Social Security Redux" »

On The Road: Corker Brings In Giuliani

CongressDaily's Mark Wegner is in Tennessee.

CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. -- Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, the GOP nominee for Senate, welcomed former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani to his hometown this afternoon to burnish his credentials in the fight against terrorism and to fault Democratic Rep. Harold Ford for lacking a firm commitment to national security. "These are serious times we are facing in our nation," Corker told reporters at an airport news conference. Standing next to Giuliani, a symbol of the recovery effort after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Corker said he supports the Bush administration's domestic surveillance program and the USA PATRIOT Act while he said Ford has a "very confused" record. "My opponent won't take a firm stand. He's for it. He's against it. And some days he won't take a stand at all," Corker said.

Corker also condemned Ford for voting "present" in 1999 when he had a chance to oppose former President Clinton's pardon of 16 members of the F.A.L.N., a Puerto Rican independence group. "Where was Harold Ford on this vote?" Corker asked. "He decided to vote present, which means you don't take a [position] one way or another. Congressman Ford sent a wrong message." Giuliani, who flew into town for a news conference and a fundraiser, praised Corker for his tenure as Chattanooga mayor for reducing crime and taxes, balancing the city's budget -- and for his dependability. "On terrorism, he's the consistency that we need. We can't go back to being defensive about it," Giuliani said. "Since Sept. 11, there is no reason to be confused. ... We have to be on the offensive." [MARK WEGNER]

Continue reading "On The Road: Corker Brings In Giuliani" »

House Race Ratings Updated

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

It now looks as if the Democrats are poised to win the 15 seats they need to win control of Congress. The question is: Can the battle-tested incumbents who have run the strongest campaigns -- Reps. Rob Simmons, Jim Gerlach and Heather Wilson -- withstand the Democratic tide? Their performance will determine whether Democrats can cobble together a real governing majority. But the fact that they're all currently ranked outside the top 15 is a sign of the Republicans' woes.

If a sizable wave emerges, take a look at Anne Northup's and Jon Porter's races. They have weaker Democratic opponents than in the past, but still represent swing districts -- and should be vulnerable in a wave.

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Air America: A "growing number of GOP incumbents in seats once considered 'safe'" -- including Reps. Melissa Hart (PA), Ron Lewis (KY), Richard Pombo (CA) and Gil Gutknecht in MN -- "are struggling this month against a powerful current of discontent with the nation's direction, the performance of Congress," Pres. Bush, and the war in Iraq. In a "measure of [Dems'] growing optimism," the DCCC will announce 10/24 that it" will begin airing ads in 11 new districts, including eight the party had not considered competitive until recently" (LA Times).

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Today On Hotline TV: Surprise Party

We take a look at whatever October surprises are left. Sorry we're so morbid.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The Wave Crashes Ashore In MN

In a state known for tuning out frivolous scandals to focus on local issues and policy, the so-called pro-Democratic wave has washed ashore, writes John Mercurio.

Continue reading the Politicscope.

Today's Blogometer: The Last Unregulated Cycle For The Net?

MyDD's Chris Bowers has been a brilliant idea factory for the netroots this cycle. His latest project seeks to game Google's known link ranking system to place the most unflattering GOP-related articles at the top of the search engine's results whenever a targeted GOP member is searched. So far, Congress and the FEC have taken a pass on regulating political speech on the internet. If projects such as this one (which while ingenious does seek to game the system to influence lower information voters) proliferate, how much longer before internet speech goes the way of broadcast speech?

Noting studies showing "the number one way that voters use the Internet for political action is to search for information on candidates" Bowers is planning to utilize "widespread embedded hyperlinks" and Google Adwords to "Google Bomb[] The Election." Bowers wants to ensure that Google searches, of the names of 70 targeted GOPers, will produce highly placed negative articles from "non-partisan media source[s]" on each candidate. The project has three steps:

• Step One: ... I will compile a list of seventy articles, one for each targeted race. Every article will focus on a different Republican candidate, and will be written by as generally trusted a news source as possible. It will also present as unflattering a view on the Republican candidate as possible.
• Step Two: Once the database is complete, BlogPac will purchase Google Adwords that will place each negative article on the most common searches for each Republican candidate. Simultaneously, I will produce an article on MyDD that embeds that negative article into a hyperlink that names the Republican candidate. I will then send a copy of that post out to as many bloggers as possible, who can also place the post on their blogs. One posting of this article will be enough.
• Step Three: All further discussion of the Republican candidates in question on all participating blogs should include an embedded hyperlink that will increase the Google search rank of the article on the given candidate.

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. For Talent, Now It's Personal: In MO, Sen. Jim Talent's (R) no longer playing "Mr. Guy," as he tries to defeat Aud. Claire McCaskill (D). Instead, Talent's "trying to make McCaskill herself the issue," launching personal attacks on her finances and past professions, including her term as state aud. Talent: "I can see why my opponent would not want some of these things to be relevant. But they are"

Yet McCaskill "insists she won't attack Talent's character because she wants to change the tone of politics." McCaskill said Talent "has gone off on this unprecedented personal attack" because "the only way he thinks he can be elected is by disqualifying me instead of promoting him because he's part of the problem" (Kansas City Star). 2. RNC Gone Wild! At least in TN, the NRSC's targeting Rep. Harold Ford Jr (D) in two new attack ads. Among them is an ad called, "Who Hasn't?" Full script:

WOMAN 1: "Harold Ford looks nice. Isn't that enough?" WOMAN 2: "Terrorists need their privacy." MAN 1: "When I die, Harold Ford will let me pay taxes again." MAN 2: "Ford's right, I do have too many guns." WOMAN 3: "I met Harold at the Playboy party!" WOMAN 4: "I'd love to pay higher marriage taxes." MAN 2: "Canada can take care of North Korea. They're not busy." MAN 3: "So he took money from porn movie producers. I mean, who hasn't?" ANNCR: "The Republican National Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising." WOMAN 3: "Harold, call me!"

While the NRSC believes the ad will help Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in his race against Ford, Corker's demanding the RNC stop airing it. Corker chair Tom Ingram: "The new RNC ad ... is tacky, over the top and is not reflective of the kind of campaign we are running." The ad includes "a smiling, bare-shouldered, white blond woman" making reference to Ford's alleged attendance at a Playboy Super Bowl party and inviting him to call her. Yet despite Corker's complaints, RNC spokesperson Camille Anderson says: "the RNC stands by" the ad and she has "no reason to believe that it will not continue to air" (Chattanooga Times Free Press

3. Chafee Trips The Millionaire's Amendment: Meanwhile in RI, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) lent his camp $500K "from his personal fortune" last week, which will allow '02 GOV candidate/ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse's (D) camp to "collect thousands more from" donors.

Although Chafee press sec. Steve Hourahan said Chafee donated "to buy media," Whitehouse donors who already reached the $2.1K donation limit "can now contribute another" $4.2K. Whitehouse spokesperson Alex Swartsel said Whitehouse's camp's consequently in "a very, very good position in terms of finances." Chafee's camp "dismissed" the news (Providence Journal

The Daily Troika: 2008 Buzz Of The Day

Oxygen is a scarce resource, and in the marketplace of presidential politics, it's hard for more than two candidates to breath that sweet air at once. So is Sen. Barack Obama really thinking about a presidential bid? Or does he realize that he'll sell more books if he gives all of his interviewers a news peg? Does he want to signal to the rest of the Democrats that he'd an alpha male? Does he want to be, of all things, vice president?

We know that his chief of staff, Pete Rouse, has been telling Democrats across the country that Obama's political staff will preserve the option of running for him. We know that Obama has taken private meetings with major Democratic donors over the past few months. But no one -- not Rouse, not David Axelrod, nor anyone else -- has asked donors and strategists to stay away from other presidential candidates. We're fairly certain that Obama's family isn't on board. We're also fairly certain that Obama's advisers are not egging him on.

On Sunday, the Boston Globe drip-driped e-mails from a consultant to Mitt Romney suggest that LDS church president Gordon Hinckley "was consulted" about an effort to corral Mormon church officios for a presidential bid.

But a Sept. 8 e-mail from Romney's Utah-based political consultant, Don Stirling, states that Hinckley and James E. Faust, the church's third-highest ranking leader, knew about the effort from another church leader, Jeffrey R. Holland, who had been in close consultation with Romney operatives about it.

The e-mail, to Sheri L. Dew, chief executive officer of the Mormon Church-owned Deseret Book Co., recounted a meeting with Romney's son Josh and Kem Gardner, a major backer of Romney's. At that meeting, Stirling wrote, Gardner reported that he had met previously with Holland, one of 12 apostles who help run the Mormon Church, about the effort to help Romney.

Romney's team is spanking Mr. Stirling publicly. As of this morning (we checked), he is still employed as a consultant to the PAC.

Meanwhile, Larry Sabato's over-the-top but catchy "Manchurian candidate" meme is spreading. Scripps Howard picked it up over the weekend.

Squibs

DNC Plays Matchmaker

The DNC has set up a donor-matching program online that's raised more than $1.1 million this week. They say it's their most successful fundraiser since Election Day 2004 recruiting more than 8,000 new donors contributing more than $600,000 total since Tuesday (for updated numbers to the minute, see here). By Friday afternoon, money was coming in at $25,000 an hour.

Here's how it worked: DNC sent out an e-mail Tuesday to supporters who had already given this cycle asking them if they'd be willing to donate again if the DNC found a new donor match them. The e-team followed up asking those who haven't given yet if they would do so if they were matched with an existing donor. Then the DNC connected the donor partners with each other by passing on their name, location and a personal message to their partners (email address optional) after the transaction was completed.

This bottom dollar boom is coming off recent news that that all the DCCC, NRCC, DSCC and RNC (but not the NRSC) all out-raised the DNC in September. And although the oversight cost is minimal because the system is online, the DNC is only asking for credit card numbers from the new donors and merely pledges from the existing donors. This means at the end of the day Dems only have half a million in their pockets for the final three-week push before Election Day, though the DNC say pledgers are so far keeping their promises [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Bush, Truman, Mehlman And Precriminations

RNC chair Ken Mehlman may have been "stabbing furiously" at Ahi tuna over dinner the other night with Howard Fineman, but it was not fish that the veteran Newsweek reporter smelled. It was the scent of spin.

To Fineman's ears, Mehlman was already offering up a "pre-mortem," explaining away anticipated GOP losses next month. And while Pres Bush acknowledged that the violence in Iraq "could be" akin to Vietnam's Tet Offensive, his ex-campaign manager saw similarities in a different Asian war.

Fineman summed the argument thusly:

"The Democrats are running against George Bush and the Iraq war. To the extent that they succeed, it will largely be because of the president’s low job-approval numbers — which are at rock bottom mostly because voters can’t see that he is leading us in a new and 'different kind of war, an insurgent war' against Islamic fascists. The last president to lead us 'for the first time in a different kind of war' was President Harry Truman. The war was the Korean War, which started in the summer of 1950, and which was going badly that fall. 'People thought at the time that the Korean War was a failure,' Mehlman said. 'Now we look back and see that it was an incredibly important success.' It defined the Cold War, a war America won."

Contiuning the Truman parallel, Fineman notes that in the 1950 midterms the party in control of the White House suffered a "drubbing" in both houses of Congress. [JONATHAN MARTIN]

Continue reading "Bush, Truman, Mehlman And Precriminations" »

On The Download: SMS Politics

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Mobile politics seems to be catching on everywhere but the United States as cell phone users mobilize in the U.K. to Save the Seals or spread the word on where to protest in South Korea. That's because Americans just don't rely on their phones in the same way as we do. As mobile politics guru Justin Oberman told the Internet Advocacy roundtable Thursday: "For them, their introduction to the internet is through their phone."

This also means the marriage of SMS and politics is not the save-all for any American campaign or organization, but the technology does have other uses that existing popular media like e-mail can't compute. Oberman says activism via phone can be done on-the-go, compared to stopping life to check a Web site or donate.

But so far, many political have shied away from the technology because it's expensive and for the most part untested. An aggregator (the middle-man between the carrier and the campaign) charges $500 a month for a random SMS code, or $1,000 a month for a "vanity" code. For many races that isn't a big price tag, but because there's no immediate profit coming from the technology yet, e-mail seems more attractive and less expensive by comparison. The FEC has yet to rule on using cell phones to raise money in politics. Much to Chairman Michael Toner's surprise, no one has asked for an opinion yet on using technology to fundraiser. Even so, phone carriers take on average 40 to 60% out of the donation -- one heck of of an overhead cost for any campaign.

So what exactly is SMS good for in American politics? Oberman answers OTD's questions below:

Continue reading "On The Download: SMS Politics" »

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Who Cares About Character?: Pres. Bush flew to PA 10 fundraiser for Rep. Don Sherwood (R) 10/19. Bush: "I'm pleased to be here with Don Sherwood. He has got a record of accomplishment." Although Sherwood's wife and daughter joined Bush on stage, "their discomfort became apparent." Bush, " trying to defuse the controversy, praised the letter" that Carol Sherwood wrote to constituents this week about the scandal involving Sherwood's ex-mistress's allegations. C. Sherwood's letter came in response to a the "needlessly cruel" decision by college prof. Chris Carney (D) to run an ad addressing the scandal. At the event, Bush said he was "deeply moved" by C. Sherwood's words (Washington Post).

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Eastwood On Politics

"Flags of Our Father" director Clint Eastwood turned political when he talked with the current issue of Entertainment Weekly. His comments on today's political climate could be seen as support for Sen. George Allen (R-VA). Remember Eastwood became mayor of Carmel running on the GOP ticket.

His words: "We're living in a world that's so violent. The way everybody's calling everybody names. Politicians are vying for power, and we're in an America where people say things, in a political race, like, 'You used the N-word 30 years ago.' Thirty years ago people might've used anything! So they say back, 'Well, you used it 20 years ago.' We're living in a kindergarten. It should be on issues, and that's the thing that makes you sick about the political scheme of things right now, regardless of which side."

He was also asked: "So is there any conceivable possibility in the modern world for the assertion of conventional heroism?"

"I don't see it right now. I certainly don't see any politician that's a hero in any party anywhere. I think John McCain did something that I don't know if I could do and I don't think many men can look in the mirror and say they'd do: give up a chance to get out of prison because his dad was an admiral and the Vietnamese were going to let him go. I mean that took cojones...."

Tiny "Stakes"

That Osama-tinged RNC ad buy Matt Drudge flashed across the screens of editors, producers, and junkies everywhere?

It's on national cable for one weekend.

And it costs only about $20K, according to information provided by Democratic ad buyers.

An RNC spokesman declined to confirm that figure.

The Big Number: 6

The Big Number: 6

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is going to have some crowing to do after 11/7. That's because his organization, the DGA, is poised for big pickups around the country -- a feat potentially accomplished without a single loss.

Currently, 22 of the nation's governors are Democrats, and if polls hold, they're about to be joined by several newcomers. Dems are currently leading in 6 states that currently have GOP governors and only one of their incumbents is trailing.

Dems are taking advantage of traditionally blue states that nonetheless elected Republicans in '02, including: MA, where ex-Clinton DoJ official Deval Patrick (D) leads LG Kerry Healey (R) by as much as 25 points; MD, where Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) looks like a good bet to pick off Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R); and NY, where AG Eliot Spitzer (D) is all but guaranteed to waltz into the seat of retiring Gov. George Pataki (R) as he stomps all over ex-Assemblyman John Faso (R). Spitzer's lead approaches 50% in some polls.

The party is also taking back two state houses they haven't held in a while. It's been a long 10 1/2 years in AR, where Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) took over for indicted then-Gov. Jim Guy Tucker (D) (who followed some guy named Clinton). Huckabee is retiring, and now the state's AG, Mike Beebe (D), looks like a sure thing to beat ex-Rep./ex-DHS Undersecretary Asa Hutchison (R). Recent polls have Beebe winning by double digits. In MN, another AG, Mike Hatch (D), is less than a certainty, but he leads Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) by 9% in a recent Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll. Those results, while much maligned by the state GOP, have yet to be countered by GOP internals made public.[REID WILSON]

Continue reading "The Big Number: 6" »

Internal Polls Are A-Divergin'

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

In virtually every competitive Senate race in the country, the Democratic and Republican candidates (or the national parties) are paying for regular polls of the state.

Sources have shared internal polling for Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri with us.

The numbers themselves are immaterial, but the disparity between Democratic and Republican polls is striking.

In two of the states, the Dem and GOP numbers diverge markedly.

Republican polls suggest that the Republican candidate has improved in these states; Democratic polling suggests that the Democrat has improved in these states. In one state, polls show mostly the same result. Normal variation and standard error rates aside, what accounts for the different numbers?

At this point in the cycle, pollsters are beginning to incorporate turnout projections into their demographic models.

Those projections derive from several sources, including previous election results, polling into voter enthusiasm and knowledge about the strength of the campaign’s GOTV program in particular areas. Smoothing out all of these sources of instability is the pollster’s instinct about what will happen on Election Day.

You’d assume that challengers would often have the more conservative projections, but we’re in a volatile political environment where the incumbent party – the Republicans – are suffering. So we wouldn’t be surprised if pollsters for Republican incumbents have downshifted their projections.

At the same time, Republicans have a lot more confidence in the back end of their voter turnout operation, which might well account for some of the less conservative projections we know pollsters for several Republican incumbents are factoring in.

Bill Titles And Their Authors: The Democratic Agenda

The Republican Study Committee wants you to know how :"liberal" Democratic members of Congress can bring themselves to be.

The group sent its members and members'; staffs an abridged list of bills that Democratic members have introduced in the past two years along with their titles. It's a catchy way to hammer home the "clear difference" that Republicans want their base to notice.

The full list after the jump.

Justice for the Unprotected against Sexually Transmitted Infections among the Confined and Exposed Act (JUSTICE) Act (Lee, D-CA)-H.R. 6083. Requires community organizations to be allowed to distribute sexual barrier protection devices (e.g. condoms) in federal prisons. Also prohibits a federal prison from taking adverse action against a prisoner who possesses or uses a sexual barrier protection device.

Crack-Cocaine Equitable Sentencing Act (Rangel, D-NY)-H.R. 2456. Eliminates the mandatory minimum sentence for crack-cocaine convictions.

Tupac Shakur Records Release Act of 2006 (McKinney, D-GA)-H.R. 4968. Enshrines copies of government records concerning rapper Tupac Shakur in a specially created collection at the National Archives.

Antibullying Campaign Act (Nadler, D-NY)-H.R. 3787. Creates a new federal grant program aimed at reducing bullying in public schools "based on any distinguishing characteristic of an individual."

Continue reading "Bill Titles And Their Authors: The Democratic Agenda" »

"Stay The Course"

Americans United, a labor-backed Dem advocacy group, will run this ad in the Rochester and Buffalo markets (NY 26) next week, and in North Virginia on cable.

It features Pres. Bush -- and only Pres. Bush, saying that the country needs to "stay the course" on Iraq.

The Daily Troika: '08 Buzz Of the Day

On the web, Gov. Mitt Romney's partisans are still fixated on Sen. John McCain's verbal typo (vypo?) (talkpo) about gay marriage; McCain partisans are re-reading that Boston Globe story on LDS church political activities. On the latter, here is the "Neutrality Letter" the church sent to its area seventies (regional governing bodies), stakes and ward leaders, as well as its bishops.
"Dear Brethren and Sisters:

Members Encouraged to Exercise the Right to Vote

(To be read in sacrament meeting)

In this election year Church members are again reminded to exercise their right to study the issues and candidates, and then vote for those they believe will most nearly carry out their ideas of good government.

While affirming its constitutional right of expression on political and social issues, the Church reaffirms its long-standing policy of neutrality and does not endorse candidates for political office. Church facilities and membership data are not to be used for political purposes.

Members who hold public office should not imply or give the impression they represent the Church as they work for solutions to social problems.

The Globe followed up, here.

McCain cancelled his campaign activities today to tend to his gravely ill mother-in-law.

Squibs:

On Those Jerry Weller Rumors..

Here's what a Weller campaign aide told the Chicago Sun-Times today:

"We believe we have now gotten to the bottom of this and other reporters who have researched this agree -- that what we have been told is that a page or intern who was sponsored by Cong. Weller was inappropriately invited to a social event with another congressman."

Hotline After Dark: O'Reilly, Barack?

Lots of good interviews on TV again last night:

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) was on "LKL" as part of his book tour.

Asked about WH '08: "Right now we've got three weeks to one of the most important elections we've had in a long time and that's the congressional elections that are going to determine the direction of the country, at least for the next two years while President Bush is still in office. So, I am spending a lot of time traveling all across the country talking to crowds about health care and energy and the situation in Iraq and hopefully we'll have a Democratic Congress come January. And, after that I think I'm going to sit down and reflect and figure out how can I be most useful."

More: "It's very flattering and I think maybe what, you know, I've tapped into and some of it, as I said is luck and happenstance and timing, but hopefully what I've tapped into, and this is what I tried to write about in 'The Audacity of Hope,' was the idea that there are a set of common values and common ideals that we all believe in as Americans, whether we're Republican or Democrat or Independents."

On Donna Brazile saying he has the bug: "I think Donna may have overstated things a little bit. I actually called Donna a while back to set up some dinner because I hadn't talked to her in a while. And, you know, there's a lot of extrapolation going on right now and a lot of speculation. But, as I told somebody before, if I ever decide to run for president, I'll hold a press conference and I'll announce I'm running for president. Until then, you know, this is mostly just chatter" (CNN, 10/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

Continue reading "Hotline After Dark: O'Reilly, Barack?" »

LDS Church Responds To Boston Globe, Romney

An official of the LDS Church sent us a response to this morning's Boston Globe article about how staff members for Gov. Mitt Romney's met with church officials in Salt Lake City.

Michael Otterson, the LDS's director of media relations, also said that the church sent a letter to its stakes and wards last week reminding them of their obligation to be politically neutral. Otterson said the letter was a standard election-year communication.

In its edition of October 19, 2006, the Boston Globe ran two lengthy stories relating to Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, and what it described as actions of some of his supporters in seeking financial and organizational help from members and leaders of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

In its reports, the Globe failed to make the significant distinction that Church members are found across the political spectrum and are entitled as citizens to support any candidate of their choice, from any party, and to act and vote accordingly and even to raise money if they wish. This is no way contravenes the institutional neutrality of the Church itself in party politics, and the Church's avoidance of anything that looks like an endorsement.

The Globe several times refers to “documents” which it never describes or explains. Despite the Church’s request that the Globe be forthcoming and allow the Church to respond to issues raised in the documents, the Globe would not provide them. Nevertheless, the newspaper makes frequent references to these non-attributed documents as the source for its stories.

In its communications with the Globe, the Church public affairs office emphasized these points:

The First Presidency of the Church has no connection or involvement whatever with the campaign or activities of any politician or candidate.

A meeting in the office of Elder Jeffrey R. Holland of the Council of Twelve and three supporters of Governor Romney was a routine response of a Church leader to a request for a courtesy visit, and not a meeting to decide fund-raising tactics for a candidate. There had been no prior discussion of an agenda. It should be noted that there is a continual stream of visitors to Church headquarters. Church leaders hold many courtesy visits with representatives of different parts of the community.

In the meeting in question, Elder Holland reiterated the well-known Church policy of party political neutrality. (That policy has again been reiterated as recently as today, following the Globe article).

Both the Church and Brigham Young University act under strict guidelines of remaining neutral in party political matters. A letter sent by leaders of the BYU Management Society was counter to these guidelines and was promptly dealt with by the university when it became known. This matter had already been corrected before the Boston Globe began its inquiries with the Church and Brigham Young University.

The Church goes to considerable lengths to emphasize to its members the institutional neutrality of the Church on partisan matters, including sending out a letter to be read from every pulpit before elections.

Party-political neutrality does not preclude the Church from speaking out as it feels necessary on public issues, such as pornography and gambling, or from expressing a view on such topics as same-gender marriage.

Today On Hotline TV: Heartland Blues

Three months ago, it seemed Dems in the Midwest were in trouble as the GOP targeted MI, WI and IL incumbent governors. Now, though, it looks like the GOP overestimated and may be singing the heartland blues.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

DNC Reports $5.6M Quarter

The DNC reported $5.6 million in September and ended the month with about $8.2 million CoH. (The party reports raising $1 million in the past two days alone.)

As we've reported, the party took out a loan worth between $5M and $10M.

In total, the DNC says it expect to spend more than $25 million on Election Day activities.

DCCC Independent Spending Sticking With Top Targets

From National Journal's CongressDailyPM:

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poured more than $11.8 million into independent expenditures in mostly top-tier targets this week, according to last-minute disclosure reports, which also show it spent more than $5 million alone to defeat three Philadelphia-area GOP incumbents.

Newly available reports show the DCCC spent more than $2.1 million against Rep. Jim Gerlach, nearly $1.6 million against Rep. Curt Weldon and more than $1.3 million against Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. The three Pennsylvania Republicans all represent Democratic-tilting, suburban districts in one of the country's most expensive television markets. Democrats have targeted all three districts, and Weldon's district grew more competitive this week after the FBI raided his daughter's home as part of an investigation into whether he used his influence to secure consulting contracts for her.

In relatively cheaper media markets, the DCCC also spent $754,000 in the district of retiring Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., against GOP state Sen. Peter Roskam; $562,000 against Rep. Clay Shaw, R-Fla.; and $448,000 against Rep. Geoffrey Davis, R-Ky. Democrats, who need to pick up a minimum of 15 seats to win the House majority, have not yet revealed whether they will pour large sums of money into more marginal races in a bid to expand their victories on Election Day. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., a DCCC co-chairman, told CongressDaily Wednesday the committee is still reviewing how to spend its remaining resources in the final days before the elections. "We are in the process of making the final decisions," he said. "There are always going to be markets where you can increase your investments or make new ones." Van Hollen did not rule out the possibility of a bank loan as large as the $11 million the DCCC borrowed during the 2004 cycle. "Everything's on the table," he said. [MARK WEGNER]

Continue reading "DCCC Independent Spending Sticking With Top Targets" »

Today's Blogometer: You're All On The Same Team, Guys

Stories from both sides of the blogosphere today demonstrate that neither party is going to harness the capabilities of the 'sphere without a few growing pains. On the right, conservative talk-show host Rush Limbaugh is talking about an Instapundit post title "GOP pre-mortem" for the 3rd consecutive day. While Rush has heaped praise on other right bloggers, there's definitely a disconnect between Limbaugh and Instapundit made worse by the fact that neither seems to regularly read the other. On the left, Chris Bowers at MyDD is pushing for all 45 unopposed House Dems to distribute all $26+ mil. of their CoH to competitive races this fall. This may be a fabulous idea, but we can't imagine the cash will be easily parted with.

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

DCCC Outraised Everyone; NRCC Had $40M In Bank

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported raising $14.4 million in September and entered October with a whopping -- and we do mean whopping -- $36 million cash on hand. The National Republican Congressional Committee banked even more -- a bit less than $40M. It raised $12M in September.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised the Republican Nat'l Committee proper in September, pulling in a record $13.6 million in contributions. The RNC had a banner month, too -- it raised $13M. The National Republican Senatorial Committee reported raising $5.1 million and had $12M on hand as of 10/1.

The RNC reported more than $26M on hand; the DSCC had $23 million to spend as of Oct. 1. The DSCC's figure does not include at least $5M in transfers from the Democratic National Committee.

The DSCC's haul reflects the confidence of donors and activists, the hedging of lobbyists, contributions from Democratic Senators, and much arm-twisting by Sen. Chuck Schumer. The Dems need the cash; where television advertising on the Republican side is split between the RNC and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the DSCC alone is running television ads on behalf of Democratic Senate candidates. Securing time for those ads is also more expensive for the Senate committee; they reserved a large chunk of their ad traffic early, when prices were relatively lower. Since it generally costs less to advertise in House districts, the two House committees were able to hoard more of their cash.

Dems Pressure Kerry, Bayh to Give To DSCC

Top Democrats are trying to convince two potential presidential candidates with flush campaign bank accounts to part with as much as $1 million each to finance the DSCC s late October effort to pull six Senate seats from Republican control. Sen. Evan Bayh's 2010 re-election committee reported $10.6 million cash on hand through the end of 9/06. On Monday, following a conversation with Min. Leader Sen. Harry Reid, Bayh directed his donors to raise $100K for the DSCC and intends deliver the checks by the beginning of next week.

'04 Dem nominee John Kerry (D-MA) has more than $8 million in his presidential campaign account. In 2004, Kerry contributed $1 million to help retire the DSCC's. debt. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), another presidential aspirant with low cash reserves has given $100,000 from his Senate account and $30,000 from his PAC, according to his spokesman, Trevor Miller. Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) has given $100K. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) has written a $50K check.

Within the past two weeks, Senate colleagues, staffers and Democratic strategists began to lean on Bayh and Kerry to write larger checks, even resorting, in some instances, to direct shame: yesterday, a Democratic official not affiliated with the DSCC sent around a website, http://www.heyjohn.org/, which takes Kerry to task. "We all know why John Kerry wants to hold on to the money we gave him for 2004, but he has plenty of time left to raise money for 2008. There are only 19 days left until this election," the website says. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "Dems Pressure Kerry, Bayh to Give To DSCC" »

The Daily Troika: '08 Buzz Of The Day

Fact: the Boston Globe will cover Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign closer and harder than any other local paper will cover their favorite sons or daughters. (Just ask John Kerry, Michael Dukakis and Jim Jordan).

Fact: the Globe's story this morning, suggesting that organized interests within the LDS church are open to use resources affiliated with the church to help Romney is the first of many stories that will question Romney's political relationship with the church.

Fact: the Globe story, read closely, does not suggest that anyone in the church did anything wrong or illegal, or that Romney's aides acted improperly. Fact: Bishops of Mormon churches are forbidden from using church directories for politics, which means that Romney needs to find other ways to collect LDS church membership lists across the country.

Fact: the accounts of Romney's advisers conflict in the story in way that's bound to extend the lifetime of the story, which means that the Romney universe (at an early stage, to be sure) lacks the rules and discipline that characterize smooth-functioning and tight presidential campaigns. (CF "The Way To Win") . Fortunately, there's plenty of time.

Fact: Gov. Mike Huckabee, in saying that some GOP govs "are accepting" that they'll lose ground, but that he's "not ready to just throw in the towel" was directly criticizing Romney.

Even pros like John McCain need to be reminded by their handlers that there are some phrases you have be very careful with. -- What McCain meant, as he clarified moments later, was that he does not support state-sanction marriage between gay people. He has no problem with committment ceremonies. Left unsaid is whether he supports any effort to extend federal benefits to those same-gender couples who participate in civil unions.

Not The E-mail Rep. Weldon Wanted To Send....

This e-mail went out to supporters of Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA) late Wednesday:

Dear Friend:

I have received confirmation that the Justice Department has opened a preliminary inquiry into items previously reported on by the LA Times in 2004.

On The Trail: Why '06 Is Like '94. And Not Like '94.

One reason why '06 Is Like '94:

"Disbelief In Losing: Even now, if media reports are correct, the White House just doesn't believe the GOP will lose control of either chamber of Congress. In '94, when the cycle began, both the House and Senate seemed out of reach for the GOP. They needed 40 seats in the House and seven seats in the Senate. At the beginning of 2006, the 15-seat House threshold for Democratic control looked quite out of reach due to the redistricting following the 2000 census, and the six Senate seats seemed like a bridge too far. Like the Democrats thought in '94, this year's Republicans know they will lose seats, but they think there is no way they will lose majorities in both chambers. Denial is a very dangerous problem for a political party in the majority."

One reason why '06 isn't like '94

The starkest difference between '94 and today is the way the electorate views Congress, change and the two political parties. As the Democratic Party became more unpopular in '94, the GOP saw its favorability ratings rise. But this cycle, it's hard to find a poll where the Democrats are viewed a lot more positively than the GOP. The Democrats' favorability ratings are a bit better, but they are nowhere near how the electorate in '94 compared the GOP and Democrats. This explanation addresses the "cynical" aspect."

"The "nervous" part is the post-9/11 hangover that still bothers the electorate. Voters are taking their political decisions very seriously, and that means there could be hesitation toward change. In '94, it was clear the electorate had no qualms about change. How else can 52 seats changing hands and a speaker of the House actually losing re-election be explained?"

Continue reading Chuck Todd's On The Trail

Hotline After Dark -- Single Best Night Interviews In A Year

Lots of good interviews on last night:

ABC's Stephanopoulos interviewed Pres. Bush 10/18. Excerpts aired across all ABC News platforms and the net released a transcript:

Stephanopoulos: "Tom Friedman wrote in the New York Times this morning that what we might be seeing now is the Iraqi equivalent of the Tet offensive in Vietnam in 1968. ... Do you agree?"

Bush: "He could be right. There's certainly a stepped up level of violence, and we're heading into an election."

More: "My gut tells me that they have all along been trying to inflict enough damage that we'd leave. And the leaders of al Qaeda have made that very clear. Look, here's how I view it. First of all, al Qaeda is still very active in Iraq. They are dangerous. They are lethal. They are trying to not only kill American troops, but they're trying to foment sectarian violence. They believe that if they can create enough chaos, the American people will grow sick and tired of the Iraqi effort and will cause government to withdraw."

Stephanopoulos: "Are these midterm elections a referendum on Iraq?"

Bush: "You know, I think they're a referendum, from my perspective, which is kind of like your perspective, which is the Washington perspective, based upon: who best to secure this country from further attack and who best to help this economy continue to grow. The truth of the matter is, as you well know, most elections are very local elections. Sometimes those issues are salient, but sometimes there's other issues at the local level as well. I'm not on the ballot. This set of elections is much different from a presidential election year. I'm going to continue saying: Vote Republican because we have got the best plan to protect you and we'll keep your taxes low to keep this economy growing."

Stephanopoulos: "You're not on the ballot, but we went back and counted. There are 72 Democratic candidates for the House who are putting you in their campaign."

Bush: "Are they saying good things?"

Stephanopoulos: "I don't think so."

Bush: "Look, maybe that strategy will work; maybe it won't work. I've always found that when a person goes in to vote, they're going to want to know what that person's going to do. What is the plan for a candidate on Iraq? What do they believe? Frankly, I hear disparate voices all over the place from the Democrats' side about Iraq. We got some saying: Get out. The person I ran against in 2004, Senator Kerry, said at a date certain, time, withdraw."

Stephanopoulos: "You've used some pretty tough rhetoric, though. You said this election's a choice between Republicans and Democrats who want to wave the white flag of surrender in the war on terror. Can you name a Democrat who wants to wave the white flag of surrender?"

Bush: "I can name a Democrat who said there ought to be a date certain from which to withdraw from Iraq, whether or not we've achieved a victory or not."

Stephanopoulos: "Is that surrender?"

Bush: "Yes, it is, if you pull the troops out before the job is done. Absolutely, George."

Stephanopoulos: "So you don't think that's questioning their patriotism when you say that?"

Bush: "No. I know it's not questioning their patriotism. I think it's questioning their judgment."

Asked to name the most important quality for the next POTUS: "Determination and compassion."

His advice for the next POTUS: "Stand on principle" (10/18).

And FNC's O'Reilly aired Part III of his Bush interview.

Asked what he thinks when he sees his poll numbers, Bush: "That a president must make decisions based upon principle and stand by the principles by which he makes decisions in order to achieve peace. And that sometimes people will agree with my decisions and sometimes they won't, but you cannot make decisions based upon opinion polls."

O'Reilly: "I think I'm the second most criticized person in the country. You're first by a large margin, but I'm second. I get really furious, especially if it's dishonest. But you don't -- you're different than I am. You're more philosophical. See, I'm sitting there going oh, if I had this guy's neck, you know."

Bush: "Well, I'm not as big as you are, so I can't - you know -- I wouldn't be able to get away with that. I understand politics. Remember, I'm a man who watched a guy I love dearly go through the same thing I'm going through. And that's my dad. And it's much harder when you see somebody you love being criticized than when you ..."

O'Reilly: "Now did you get angry about that?"

Bush: "I did get angry about it."

O'Reilly: "I just wrote a book called 'Culture Warrior.' And we sent you a free copy, by the way."

Bush: "Good. ... Might entice me to actually read it."

O'Reilly: "The secular progressives don't like you because you're a man of faith."

Bush: "That causes me to be sad for people who don't like somebody because he happens to believe in the Almighty" (FNC, 10/18).

HIS AMES IS TRUE

The "Hardball" college tour was at IA State and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was there:

McCain, asked why pols don't like one another: "I think that we don't see each other as much as we should, for one reason. I think that we are motivated to do whatever is necessary to gain public office, and I'm afraid that sometimes we look at polling numbers and see that negative attacks move those numbers in our favor or against our opponent."

McCain: "I think that gay marriage should be allowed, if there's a ceremony kind of thing, if you want to call it that. I don't have any problem with that, but I do believe in preserving the sanctity of a union between man and woman."

On the new Jim Kolbe page allegations: "I do and will continue to say that Jim Kolbe is respected and a good friend of mine. It would be hard for me to believe that Jim would do anything wrong."

Asked if a man of Obama's "limited experience" is ready for the WH: "I don't know. But that's why we have primaries and all that kind of stuff. But there's no doubt and Barack and I have had our differences from time to time."

Asked when he'll make a WH decision: "After Thanksgiving."

MSNBC's Matthews: "After Turkey day? What, Friday? Can I call you on Friday?"

McCain: "Please do so. We have to get together" (MSNBC, 10/18).

HUG IT OUT TIME

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) was on "Oprah":

Oprah Winfrey: "This is my senator, my favorite senator." More: "I wasn't feeling that hopeful and then I read your book and now I'm feeling more hopeful."

Winfrey: "I love that you said is that the truth is that sometimes Democrats need to listen to what Republicans are saying because sometimes they might have something that's true, and the opposite is also true."

Obama: "As I travel around the country, and I speak all over the place now, you know, the country is not as divided as Washington sees. It's not as divided as those able news shows make it out to be."

More: "I think conservatives are more tolerant than we make them out to be. ... Liberals are concerned about values, contrary to what conservatives say."

Winfrey: "This summer, the senator traveled with his family to Africa. I offered him a ride. He wouldn't take it on my plane."

Obama: "I remember taking commercial. And it was this classic, you know, terrible ride. ... But as I was finally getting on the plane, the plane had been delayed, I was grumpy, I'm about to get on. And this young man comes up to me and he says, 'You're Senator Obama.' And I said, 'Yes.' And he said, 'I just want you to know I'm 32, 33, I've got a three-year-old son and I've got Parkinson's disease. And although it's not bad yet, they expect that I'll probably never be able to throw a baseball with my son. And so I really want you to work on stem cell research because it may not help me, but it might help somebody else to make sure they're not going through what I'm going through.' ... And that doesn't happen on a private jet."

More: "I'd just introduced this bill on nonproliferation, you know, nuclear weapons that are out there, loose nukes in former Soviet territory. So I was working with my Republican colleague Dick Lugar to introduce this bill. I was excited about it. I called Michelle, saying, 'Look, this is going to be a terrific piece of legislation.' She says, 'We have ants.' I said, 'Ants.' She said, 'Yes, we have ants and I need ant traps. We have ants in the bathroom and the kitchen. So on your way home, can you pick up some ant traps, please?' ... You know, so I'm thinking, you know, is John McCain stopping by Walgreens to grab ant traps on the way home?"

Winfrey: "If he's not, he should be."

More Winfrey: "I didn't want to put you on the spot, certainly not at the beginning of the show, but I was on 'Larry King.' There was some guy who wants me to run for president. I'm never going to run for any public office. And I said on 'Larry King' that I would like that guy to put his energy behind somebody who would really make a difference in this country and that would be you. ... And I know I don't just speak for myself. There are a lot of people who want to feel the audacity of hope, who want to feel that America can be a better place for everybody. There are a lot of people who would want you to run for the presidency of the United States. Would you consider that?"

Obama: "I just want to point out to everybody that she was deflecting attention off her."

More: "And we have an election coming up in '06 that has been determined who's in power in Congress, both the House and the Senate. And that's what I'm spending all my energy devoting to is to make sure that people are paying attention to this election. I don't care whether you're a Republican, a Democrat, Independent. We've got some critical issues on health care, on energy, on making sure our children are getting the education that makes them competitive. What are we going to do about Iraq?"

Winfrey: "So if you ever would decide to run within the next five years, I'm going to have this show for five more years, would you announce on this show?"

Obama: "You know, well, you know, I don't think I could say no to you" (ABC, 10/18). [EMILY GOODIN]

K Street Veering Left

For all the Republican effort in the last decade to append Washington's corporate lobbying community to the GOP coalition, K Street's main project, as it were, is, was, and always will be to deliver for clients and companies. To ensure favorable legislation -- or to block unhelpful measures -- these lobbyists need to be able to access the influential. That is done, among other ways, through campaign contributions. While the business community is more inclined to support Republicans on both philosophical and personal grounds, their professional motivation trumps all.

This is why, as a review of their latest campaign finance filings reveals, House Min Leader Nancy Pelosi and Min Whip Steny Hoyer will both break their all-time fundraising records this cycle, and will do so thanks in no small part to PAC contributions. Both Pelosi and Hoyer have already raised more PAC dollars through the end of September than they did for the entire campaign in 2004, when both held the same leadership positions they do now.

According to PoliticalMoneyLine, nearly $940K of Pelosi's $1.46M raised so far this cycle comes from PAC contributions. Of the $940K, over half comes from business interests or law firms and lobbying shops. While a third is from organized labor, Pelosi's corporate contributions have spiked compared to 2004. Just in the third quarter of this year, her donors included such GOP-friendly groups as the American Bankers Assoc, the American Hospital Assoc, Credit Suisse, the Financial Services Roundtable, the Mortgage Bankers Assoc, Honeywell Corp, Accenture, Genworth, Lockheed Martin and even the Nat'l Beer Wholesalers.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Continue reading "K Street Veering Left" »

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Familiar Patterns: In new TV ads, GOPers attack their opponents on nat'l security. To highlight a few -- Rep. Rob Simmons's (R) up with a new TV ad in CT 02 against '02 nominee Joe Courtney (D), while in VA 02, Rep. Thelma Drake's (R) up with one against Virginia Beach Cmsr. of Revenue Phil Kellam (D).

Simmons's full script, "Threats."

ANNCR: "North Korea tests a nuclear weapon; Iran's leader says 'Death to Americans.' With new threats assaulting us, Congressman Rob Simmons stands out as strong enough to protect us. 37 Years of Military Experience. 10 years of Intelligence Experience. Joe Courtney? No military experience. No intelligence experience. None! With threats everywhere, Rob Simmons is best equipped to protect your family and our nation."

Drake's full script, "Interception."

ANNCR: "An enemy in the shadows. Terrorists that know only death and destruction. Thelma Drake says find them where they hide. Already one terrorist plot uncovered, countless lives saved. But Phil Kellam says stop, don't intercept calls to known terrorists -- even with a potential terrorist plot unfolding until paper work is filed. Kellam says wait for the lawyers. He would put us all at risk. Phil Kellam. Dead wrong on national security."

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Today On Hotline TV: Hot Or Not?

Hey, the Washington Post did it, so we should, too. We really, honestly try and answer the question, are these 10 '08 candidates hot or not? But don't worry, we make plenty of fun of ourselves in the process.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

1. Kean Gives Himself A $400K Boost: State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R), who "had been coy on whether he would tap his family fortune" to assist his camp, "has lent" his since lent his camp $400K. Along with the NRSC's recent $500K ad buy, the new funds give Kean $5M CoH to Sen. Bob Menendez (D) $5.5M CoH. While Menendez's ads have "saturated" NJ, NY and Philly airwaves, Kean "only recently went on the air" in NJ. (Philadelphia Inquirer).

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates" »

The Daily Troika: Daily 2008 Buzz

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) was in Michigan yesterday raising money for the GOP. The state party chair, Saul Anuzis, writes on his blog that "Last week, RNC Chairman introduced Romney at a D.C. event and said he was the most sought after Republican speaker in the country. After his performance in Grand Rapids, it was obvious why to all."

USNews.com's Bedard > blogs about Romney's new CommPAC staff, calling it an "A-team of political consultants...in one swoop," including FL GOV Jeb Bush adviser Sally Bradshaw. Media consultant Alex Castellanos: "Mitt Romney means business....Where Sally Bradshaw goes, a lot of Jeb Bush's people will follow." Romney also hired ex-DoJ spokesperson Barbara Comstock, who "has deep roots in the conservative movement....What's more, she's got good ties to Washington journalists." Castellanos: "She's the best-kept secret in Washington. She's done more than anyone to get George Bush elected." Ex-Bush speechwriter Noam Nuesner has also been hired "to help write speeches and craft Romney's public image" (10/17).

Responding to the announcement that McCain had won the good graces of State Sen. Mike Fair, The State's Warthen blogs: "It looks like Sen. McCain has a whole new approach this time: He actually intends to win" (10/17). The Greenville News' Hoover wonders "who's next?" Hoover: "Before long, the question might be, who's left?" "Christian activist" Bob McAlister, a McCain supporter; "Mike is s big fish for us. It sends a strong message that the campaign is reaching ou tto all Republicans and Republicans are reaching back." DeMint has been "trying to stem the flow to McCain" lest "Republicans lose focus on the 2006 elections." Hoover concludes: "That's what he said" (10/17)

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will travel to NV 10/19 (release).

In IA, John Kerry said Bush, on Iraq, has committed "a gigantic blunder" (AP)

The Hotline's Barbs and Jabs

A week's worth of '06 debate highlights.

Allen and Webb get nasty but keep it civil; Santorum and Casey yell about who yells the loudest; Kennedy tries his mightiest, but Klobuchar won't bite.

Why The White House Has To Be Optimistic

Perhaps the biggest danger to Republicans in the wake of all these bad polls is that their volunteer base, so critical to victory in 2004, won't put their hearts in their work. If volunteers become convinced that Republicans will lose control of Congress, what incentive do they have to work hard?

If you're ever read a profile of Ken Mehlman, you know he is obsessed with metrics. For him, one of the most important sources of data is a weekly e-mail his political team prepares called the "Weekly Grassroots Report." It meticulously records the work of tens of thousands of volunteers in targeted states, counties and congressional districts across the country. The data summary allows the RNC to determine which states are meeting goals and which states are falling behind.

The RNC declined to share the most recent report, which was issued Monday. But two independent sources who saw last week's report professed to be surprised: not only was their no drop off last week, 12 states broke new voter contact records.

In a month, the party completed more than a million phone calls and door contacts conbined. Bigger states are putting up big numbers -- even Ohio, which lagged behind its targets all summer, has caught up. The RNC is particularly pleased with their progress in New Jersey, where they've rapidly set up a more aggressive version of their 72 Hour Program in light of the state's more competitive Senate race.

These are the numbers that motivate Karl Rove's optimism. The spreadsheets show that Republican volunteers are working hard. There are plenty of volunteers and they seem plenty willing to knock on doors and make telephone calls. That's why it makes sense for Rove, for White House pol. dir Sara Taylor, and for Mehlman to exude uncanny optimism even while their brains pore over pessimistic polls. Right now, a strong volunteer corps on election day working to turn out voters is the only hope they've got. If the volunteers detect a shred of defeatist cross-talk or come across a newspaper article suggesting that Rove is panicked, then they'll start to panic, too.

The point is that top-level Republican optimism is pragmatic, not ignorant. [MARC AMBINDER]

Minnesota Governor's Race: Must Be The Lake Effect

Welcome to Minnesota: Where the women are strong, the men are good looking, and all this week's Minneapolis Star-Tribune polls lean Democrat.

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

Polls released this week by the state's largest newspaper showed Democrats with unprecedented leads in the Governor race and Minnesota's 6th. In polls taken the second week of October, Attorney General Mike Hatch (DFL) led sitting Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) 47-37 (MoE 3.4%), with another 7% for Indie candidate Peter Hutchinson. A poll from the same time period shows child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (DFL) leading state Senator Michele Bachmann (R) 48-40 (MoE 4.5%) and the Indie candidate getting 4%.

One might surmise that both DFL candidates, Hatch and Wetterling, are riding the anti-Washington wave with Amy Klobuchar, who has been leading opponent Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) in double-digits for months. But if that's the case, why did Hatch and Wetterling spring forward in the past month? Furthermore, the same Star-Trib poll shows many voters (27%) are willing to split the ticket Klobuchar/Pawlenty. Is this the same purple-turning-red state that the RNC announced its 2008 Convention with a rumored RGA chair-in-waiting Governor? [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

Continue reading "Minnesota Governor's Race: Must Be The Lake Effect" »

Hotline After Dark -- Who WASN'T On Last Night

TV was a hodge-podge of topics last night although there was a lot of talk on North Korea and Sec/State Condoleezza Rice's trip to the region.

FNC's O'Reilly aired Part II of his Pres. Bush interview.

On interrogating terrorists: "I don't want to talk about techniques. But I do share the American people that we were within the law. And we don't torture. I've said all along to the American people we won't torture, but we need to be in a position where we can interrogate these people."

O'Reilly: "Do you think Hillary Clinton is soft on terrorism?"

Bush: "First of all it's very important for me never to, you know, question anybody's patriotism. I believe there's a group of people here in Washington, however, who have a different view of this war. They view it as a law enforcement matter. I view it as war. And therefore the federal government must use all our assets at our disposal, obviously within the constitution to protect this country. We cannot afford to respond to an attack after it happens. We must be in a position to be able to gain the intelligence necessary to stop the attack from happening if in the first place. ... Now there are some who say we're not at war. There are some who say Iraq is not part of the war on terror. I strongly disagree. And so
does Osama bin Laden, and Mr. Zawahiri, sworn enemies of the United States, who would like to attack us again. And that's the fundamental difference of attitude. I'm never going to question anybody's patriotism. But I am going to say there's different point of view here in Washington, D.C. And the American people -- they got a choice to make coming this November. And I believe the choice is stark and clear. And believe that my party and our candidates are going to best put policies that will be better positioned to put policies in place that enable us to protect the American people from an attack."

More Bush: "This is not a struggle of religion in my judgment. This isn't Christianity versus Islam. People in the Muslim world need to look at the United States. We welcome Muslim-Americans. They're free to worship the way they so choose. This is a struggle between people who have subverted a great religion to meet their own ambitions and kill. I don't believe religious people kill innocent people. I don't believe that. I believe these are totalitarians who want to impose their vision on others. And they use murder as a weapon to achieve it. And the fundamental question facing all civilized world and facing nations in the Middle East is can we have systems in place that end up marginalizing radicals and extremists. It's really the call of this generation" (FNC, 10/17).

CAMPAIGN COUNTDOWN

With Election Day approaching, the nets are beginning to profile the big races:

CNN's J. King, on MO SEN: "You might call Missouri the Republican Senate firewall. The party figures if it can hold on to this seat, it will most likely protect its Senate majority. As a result of that ... the Republicans are coming in here pouring in the money for late TV ads, also sending in paid volunteers to use what even the Democrats concede is a much superior voter turnout machine" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 10/17).

FNC's Cameron profiled OH SEN: "DeWine and the GOP have more money and better organization for the stretch. But energizing Republicans may prove tough after a string of federal and state scandals involving the Republican governor, fundraiser and congressmen in Ohio, scandals Democrats eagerly try to tie to DeWine" ("Special Report," 10/17).

NBC's Reid examined NJ SEN: "It wasn't supposed to be this difficult. Democrat Bob Menendez was appointed to an open U.S. Senate seat in January. The thinking then was that his long experience in New Jersey politics and a fat campaign bank account would carry him to victory in November in this heavily Democratic state. But Tom Kean, Jr., who rarely mentions he's a Republican, has used his family name -- his father's the popular former governor of New Jersey -- and a relentless attack on Menendez's ethics to turn this race into a toss-up" ("Nightly News," 10/17).

CNN's Snow looked at CT 04: "Iraq has been the big issue between Congressman Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell so far. But in the final weeks of the campaign it's some of the language being used by the candidates that's drawing attention" ("Situation Room," 10/17).

WHEN IN TROUBLE, TURN TO FOX

FNC's Garrett talked to Rep. Curt Weldon (R-PA).

Weldon, on the investigation: "The timing of it and the sequence, I mean, it is what it is. I mean, if there's a piece that runs on a Wednesday, on a Friday there is a reporter coming out with the story saying there is an investigation that no one has heard of, and on a Monday there are people going to my daughter's home."

On the election fallout: "Obviously when you come out with a story of this magnitude, you involve a congressman's child, you know, it's going to have an impact and, you know, all I can do is stand by my daughter" ("Special Report," 10/17).

WOLF SHOWS HIS TEETH

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) was in the "Situation Room." He was asked about WH '08.

Romney: "Sorry, Wolf, won't help your ratings today. I'm keeping the option open at this point, as are probably 20 or 30 other people, Republican and Democrat."

More: "I think you will see most people who are considering '08 giving it some consideration, probably towards the end of the year, maybe the beginning of next year -- different people choosing different times. But you probably can't wait too long, because the primaries and the early caucuses are starting even earlier this year. So, I think those that are really serious about looking at '08 are going to have to make up their mind pretty quickly."

On his religion: "I don't think faith will become a factor, in the final analysis. But it may become an issue people talk about early on. But, ultimately, they put aside those differences, and focus on the capabilities of the individual candidates, their vision, their aspirations, where they take America, and why they're running."

On Iraq: "I think very few responsible Democrats, including people like Hillary Clinton, say just turn around and get out. We all want to get out as soon as we can. But we recognize that Iraq is simply a front on the war on terror. Terror is going to continue. The jihadists are trying to take over modern Muslim nations."

Asked if he has problems with the Bush policy in Iraq: "Oh, sure. I mean, following the collapse of the Hussein government, we found that the planning level and the troop strength level were not adequate for the need. But we are where we are now. And problems arise. And surprises occur in major international conflict. But now we're in a setting which is very challenging. But simply turning around and walking out now could lead to a humanitarian disaster."

More: "I'm not in favor of cut and run. And stay the course should be amended to say, let's make sure we give al-Maliki the time he needs to establish the kind of security capability that will provide safety for his citizens, but, then, let's move out as quickly as we can, and defend our interests."

On gay marriage: "My view is that we should have a constitutional amendment that says that marriage is defined as a relationship between a man and a woman. And the reason it's so important to do at a federal level -- and I know some people say they are against gay marriage, but let the states decide. Well, if one state decides that they are going to have gay marriage, and they marry people from all over the country, then, every state ends up with gay marriage, because people move around this country" (CNN, 10/17). [EMILY GOODIN]

DNC Takes Out Loan For DSCC

The DSCC's optimism about winning the Senate is apparently contagious as the DNC is going to pony up an extra $5-10M for the Senate committee, according to sources familiar with the previously reported arrangement between the two campaign orgs.

While the DNC doesn't have $10M to just toss around to another campaign committee, the DNC apparently has decided to go into debt to come up with the extra cash DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been pleading for from DNC Chair Howard Dean. The actual amount of the loan the DNC is taking out is not known as the committee holds out hope they can raise nearly everything they need before the election. But a line of credit has been opened.

The money is not designated for specific Senate races, however, sources tell us that two races in particular were used as leverage in negotiations between the DSCC and the DNC. Those two races: New Jersey and Virginia. Apparently the extra DNC money will help soften the financial blow the DSCC was taking by incurring the extra cost of saving Sen. Bob Menendez from the challenge of Republican Tom Kean Jr. as well also trying to target Virginia. New Jersey and Virginia sport three of the most expensive media markets in the country (NYC, Philly and DC). In addition, TN was also a factor in the DNC-DSCC discussions as the investment the DSCC is making is possibly more than they expected.

A national party committee taking out a loan toward the end of an election cycle is not unusual, particularly on the Democratic side of the aisle. In '04, the DCCC took out a loan in an attempt to save the Texas Democratic House incumbents. In the end, four of those five Texas Democratic incumbents lost.

There has been some speculation (driven a bit by Democratic pundits like James Carville) that the DCCC might take out another loan this cycle in order to spend money on some of these new House seats that have come into play over the last few weeks.

The RNC is proving to be an important cog to the Republicans' efforts to hold the House and Senate, particularly the Senate. It's been something that's gotten under the skin of Schumer and DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel. It'll be interesting to see if Dean's decision to go into debt will finally get Schumer and Emanuel off his back. [CHUCK TODD]

Attn: Chuck Schumer

If control of the Senate does come down to Tennessee, the Democrats may want to have a chat with Harold Ford Sr. The ex-congressman and father of current-Rep. Harold Ford Jr has another son on the ballot next month, Jake Ford. J. Ford is running as an independent for the Memphis House seat his family has controlled for 32 years. The Democratic nominee, state Sen. Steve Cohen (D), is a longtime rival of the Ford's.

So when the senior Ford rallied Democrats in Memphis on Sunday for his namesake, he couldn't help but get a plug in for his other son and a jab at Cohen.

Remarks after the jump

When asked about them on the campaign trail, Junior pleads that he has no control of the family. Perhaps not, but he's got to know that when his father veers into off-the-cuff remarks defending his little brother's arrest record at Ford for Senate campaign events, it only gives more fodder to Bob Corker and the GOP regarding the "Ford family" and "Memphis," wink wink, nod nod.

Harold Ford Sr may see a son elected to the Senate and he may get another to keep the Ford line alive in the House. But he may not be able to do both.

Continue reading "Attn: Chuck Schumer" »

A Good Shot, Says Cheney

VP Cheney told Rush Limbaugh: "I think we'll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House."

Check the full transcript of the Veep on Rush after the jump.

Continue reading "A Good Shot, Says Cheney" »

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. Spend To Defend: Where there are open seats, there are big spenders...

In IL 06, state Sen. Peter Roskam's (R) banked $1.5M in the 3rd Q-- nearly 7 times Iraq War Vet Tammy Duckworth's (D) CoH total; in FL 13, auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R) spent over $3M – most of it from his own pockets.

Meanwhile,many Democratic candidates are keeping pace. Child safety activist Patty Wetterling (D) in MN 06 raised the second-largest sum ($1.33M) of all open-seat candidates. In IA 01, atty Bruce Braley (D) raised $822K CoH to Restaurateur Mike Whalen's (R) $518K.

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

The Boehner Message

Maj Leader John Boehner sent a memo to his flock yesterday, acknowledging that L'Affaire Foley "became the story" at the end of the session.

But, Boehner told fellow House Republicans, they should not let that obscure their accomplishments.

Full memo after the jump

Continue reading "The Boehner Message" »

Did Pat Robertson Smite Bob Corker?

If further evidence were needed of Harold Ford, Jr.'s momentum in Tennessee--and why Republicans face problems motivating voters on election day--religious-minded TV junkies (and plain, old inveterate cable surfers) caught it last night on the Christian Broadcasting Network¹s 700 Club, which featured an illuminating report from Tennessee that captured Bob Corker¹s woes as well as anything.

CBN correspondent David Brody interviewed both candidates with an eye toward examining how religion shapes their politics. Noting that Ford wears his on his sleeve (he shot a commercial in his church), Brody concludes of Ford that, "He's hip, young, articulate, and talking about Jesus." Ford even has the presence of mind to slip in a bemused dismissal of Corker¹s charge that he is "too religious."

Corker fares much worse. "This should have been a cakewalk for Bob Corker," Brody notes. "But Republican strategists here tell CBN News that conservatives aren¹t excited about him. Especially on the pro-life issue."

The problem? Tennessee Right To Life won¹t endorse him--and Corker does'¹t seem to want to say why. When Brody questions him about it, he elicits this devastatingly befuddled reply: "Uh...uh...uh...uh...I don¹t know...that¹s
something you¹ll have to ask them." Brody does. And Tennessee Right To Life points out that Corker ran as a pro-choice Senate candidate in 1994.

When a Republican in Tennessee has lost Pat Robertson and the Christian Broadcasting Network, things are indeed grim. [JOSHUA GREEN]

Today On Hotline TV: Bucked Eye

A weekend New York Times article suggests the GOP is pulling out of the Ohio Senate race. What kind of fallout will that have on Ohio House races? Some Dems can start packing their bags and booking flights to DC right away.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

McCain Lands State Sen. Mike Fair

In the world of SC politics, the smaller fish often taste the best. Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC has signed up State Sen. Mike Fair, who represents some of the most conservative precincts in Greenville. Fair was a strong supporter of Pres. Bush in 2000. He is a strong, strong conservative -- he ran to Sen. Jim DeMint's right in the '98 House primary for the 4th district (and lost). He's leading the charge to give science teachers in the state more latitude to teach "intelligent design" as an alternative to Darwinian evolution.

Fair becomes McCain's new wing man in the candidate's aggressive pursuit of upstate South Carolina conservatives. His endorsement is important.

The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates

All the candidates, all their monies, all the hot races, one document, click here.

The Top Incumbent Fundraisers for the 3rdQ: Lieberman ($6.57M), Santorum ($3.88M), Clinton ($3.84M), DeWine ($2.67M), Allen ($2.61M)

The Top Non-Incumbent Fundraisers for the 3rdQ: Lamont ($6.2M), Corker ($5.63M), Pederson ($5.18M), Ricketts ($4.45M), McGavick ($4.18M)

The Top Non-Incumbent Fundraisers for the 3rdQ (Excluding Self-Funders): Casey ($4.13M), Webb ($3.43M), McCaskill ($2.99M), Brown ($2.90M), Bouchard ($2.56M)

The Top Incumbent Spenders for the 3rdQ: Santorum ($9.57M), Clinton ($9.00M), Stabenow ($6.89M), Bill Nelson ($6.77M), Lieberman ($6.16M)

The Top Non-Incumbent Spenders for the 3rdQ: Corker ($6.18M), Lamont ($6.06M), Pederson ($5.67M), Casey ($5.53M), McCaskill ($5.52M)

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot Senate Race Updates" »

Romney Bulks Up Front End Of Commonwealth PAC

Gov. Mitt Romney bulked up the front end of his Commonwealth PAC today, adding four veteran Republican straregists to the committee.

They include one of Jeb Bush's closest advisers, Sally Bradshaw; a former speechwriter for Pres. Bush, Noam Neusner; former RNC strategist/DoJ comm. dir. Barbara Comstock, and press secretary Jared Young.

For months, the PAC has run on a skeleton stuff while Romney has pursued his political travels and planted seeds for his expected '08 bid. Recently, his gubernatorial chief staff, Beth Myers, joined the PAC as executive director.

The full release is after the jump.

Continue reading "Romney Bulks Up Front End Of Commonwealth PAC" »

Hotline's Daily Troika: Your Dose Of 2008 Buzz

29 NH Dem state reps affixed their names to this statement: New Hampshire Democratic Voters should decide, by mail-in ballot, the date for the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary In essence, that would bind the NH Dem party to the date chosen by NH Sec/State Bill Gardner. There's a strong possibility that Gardner will find himself looking at late 2007 for said primary. There's an equally strong chance that he'll chOose Tuesday, 1/8/08.

Karyn Frist, wife of Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist, plans to spend four days in NH starting 10/23 to promote her new book, Love You, Daddy Boy: Daughters Honor the Fathers They Love

Yikes: "Republican Senate leader Joseph Bruno said Monday that Gov. George Pataki has been in "exit mode" for months after announcing he wouldn't seek re-election and that has hurt the state Republican Party."

Prof. Dante Scala connects the dots: why is Rep. Charlie Bass potentially in some trouble come Election Day? Bass is:

a) a "Kerry Republican," a Republican congressman representing a district John Kerry carried in 2004.

(b) stuck in the worst national political environment of his Congressional career.

(c) facing an opponent who will spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 million by Election Day.

(d) an incumbent who has failed to reach 50 percent support in the last three independent polls, including two by the Becker Institute and the American Research Group

Ret. Gen. Wes Clark heads to NH on Friday.

Potential pres. candidates have "showered" $1.6M on Iowa candidates this cycle.

Yes Virginia, The RNC Is Advertising In Ohio, But...

The independent expenditure arm of the Republican National Committee begins the first in a series of television ads intended for broadcast throughout Ohio today. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is indeed off the air in the state, but Republican sources say that the NRSC long-planned to outsource Ohio media spending to the RNC IE three weeks before the election.

In other words, the NRSC would get in early, which they did, and the RNC would come in later, which they are. The size of this buy is unknown -- it appears to be about $700K -- but a week's worth of ads statewide costs in the neighborhood of $1M. If these ads have no effect, then the subsequent RNC IE ads -- if they exist -- will appear less frequently.

Don't see this new ad as a total repudiation of yesterday's New York Times story, the thrust of which hasn't been disputed. Republicans are down-shifting their commitment to the Senate race. They're not entirely abandoning it. Yet.

Script: “Times are tough in Ohio. Real tough. But unemployment taxes provide a safety net. It’s all some people have got. If someone didn’t pay their unemployment taxes, it would be a scandal. Especially an elected official, now running for public office. Especially if he didn’t pay them for 13 years.” Meet Congressman Sherrod Brown,
who didn’t pay his unemployment taxes for 13 years.” “The Republican National
Committee is responsible for the content of this ad."

Doin' The Nasty: NRSC Slams Ford For Dating

An occasional post about the lower order pleasures in politics; or, just the nastiest stuff that's out there.

Today's subject: The National Republican Senatorial Committee blasts TN SEN candidate Harold Ford junior for ... well, we're not entirely sure. It has something to do with his dating life. Here's the release in full:

For Immediate Release:
Monday, October 16, 2006 Contact: Dan Ronayne
(202) 675-6004

More Details Of Ford's Fancy Fling

WASHINGTON--The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) issued the following release after The Commercial Appeal reported more details of Congressman Harold Ford, Jr.'s previous "nonexclusive courtship" with a Georgetown University sophomore:

"It's good to hear Congressman Ford's Georgetown University girlfriend's spring break planning didn't get in the way of his meetings with the President," said Dan Ronayne, NRSC Spokesman. "But the least Fancy Ford could have done was call her back after news broke of their relationship. Not providing closure is distinctly un-fancy."

Continue reading "Doin' The Nasty: NRSC Slams Ford For Dating" »

Pat Robertson Agrees With Kuo

Pat Robertson: "What David Kuo said is not all that out of character. I've been involved in the political process for a long time. ... I haven't seen any great change in the nation because of evangelical involvement. ... Our primary job is building the kingdom of God not building the kingdom of Republicanism or Democratic politics. ... I think it's important to participate in politics but at the same time it's important to keep our eyes fixed on Jesus Christ" ("700 Club," ABC Family, 10/16).

On The Download: Fast Forward Together PAC

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

When pundits talk about former Virginia Governor and presidential candidate Mark Warner's office, they describe an ample, organized Forward Together PAC with more than enough people to mobilize two years away from a Presidential election. The same applies to their e-team, also based in Alexandria and run by MyDD blogfather Jerome Armstrong. Warner's internet campaign had six people, including Armstrong, on staff and was about to bring on three more workers before Warner announced he was dropping out in a sudden press conference Thursday. Due mostly to the fact that Armstrong kept the internet department in-house, Warner's e-campaign was the largest in the '08 field.

So what's going to change at Forward Together now that Warner isn't running for President? According to Armstrong, there's "less urgency" to roll out new ideas, programs and avatars. "The focus has shifted," he said. Warner is heading to the San Francisco Bay Area tomorrow to meet and talk tech policy with net execs, including Craigslist.org founder Craig Newmark and blogging software giant Six Apart VP Anil Dash. While these meetings were scheduled before Thursday's sudden announcement, Warner's background with the IT community and his active e-campaign might shed light on Forward Together's next phase.
[SHIRA R.TOEPLITZ]

Continue reading "On The Download: Fast Forward Together PAC" »

Hotline After Dark -- The No Spin Zone?

FNC's O'Reilly interviewed Pres. Bush. The interview will air over three nights, beginning last night:

O'Reilly: "This is my third interview with the president. He does get a fair shake here but he also gets tough questions, as everybody does. Now interviewing a president is not like interviewing anyone else on the planet. You cannot be confrontational with the president of the United States. You can be direct, but you can't be disrespectful."

Bush, asked why so many Americans are against the war: "Because they want us to win. They are wondering whether or not we have the plans in place to win. They want to know whether or not we have the flexibility on the ground to constantly meet the enemy. And I can understand why there's frustration, because the enemy knows that killing innocent people will create a sense of frustration and they know that they know America. They know we are a conscience-driven people that value life. And the more people they destroy and the more innocent lives that are destroyed, the more likely it is we will retreat in their way of thinking. This is what Osama bin Laden and Zawahiri had plainly stated, that it is just a matter of time that America loses her nerve and leaves."

More: "It is conceivable that within decades, the Middle East will be a place where moderate governments have been toppled, extremists and radicals will have gained control of oil resources and then will use to create a blackmail situation against the West and Iran will have a nuclear weapon, to complicate the mix. And 20 or 30 years from now if that is the case, people will say what happened to them, how come you couldn't see the threat as a generation of Americans are dealing with something much more violent than we are seeing today. And so to the critics who say we don't listen, of course we listen. I listen to the most important people of all, the people on the ground who are actually in Baghdad making the difficult decisions necessary to help this government succeed."

On why the U.S. doesn't talk to North Korea: "We tried that and didn't work." More: "What I'm saying is there was kind of a good faith effort made to engage North Korea and try to convince them in a bilateral way to give up their weapons programs. There was an agreement made and they didn't honor the agreement. And so I decided since that didn't work, we ought to try another way forward in order to solve this problem peacefully and this is to have China at the table and South Korea at the table and Japan at the table and Russia at the table. My attitude is real simple on this. More voices saying the same thing to North Korea makes it more likely that we will be able to solve this issue peacefully" (FNC, 10/16).

And with the election less than a month away, several pundits were prognosticating. Here's a sampling:

Washington Post's VandeHei: "Republicans are looking at the landscape, and they're basically pulling back from investing in trying to defeat Democrats" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/16).

New York Times' Nagourney: "One thing you need to watch is a lot of these races right now, House races, Democrats are ahead by one or two points. If it remains at one or two points, the turnout operation, which Republicans correctly boast about -- I think it really is really good -- can make the difference of pulling Republicans back. But if they keep widening, and some of these races are -- they seem to be widening -- then Democrats are going to be in very strong positions" ("NewsHour," PBS, 10/16).

Rothenberg Report's Rothenberg: "The buzz about the story that the RNC is effectively writing off Ohio seems to be wrong. In fact, the Republican National Committee has a $1 million TV buy beginning very shortly in the state. They are pumping more than a million dollars to their effort to save Mike DeWine" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/16).

Time's Klein, on Obama: "He's as good as anybody I've seen since Clinton" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 10/16).

Ex-Sec/State James Baker, asked if he expects Bush to "annoint" the GOPer in '08: "No, I really don't" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/16).

Elizabeth Edwards, on a possible Edwards '08 run: "He is fighting the fight that he thinks he needs to fight, and he is also going to places because he is, in fact, seriously considering it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/16).{EMILY GOODIN]

Hastert's Precedents

The FBI's 10/16 raid of the homes of Rep. Curt Weldon's (R-PA) daughter and a close friend raises an interesting question about the '06 culture of corruption that reaches far beyond the Pennsylvania GOPer's fight for survival. The question may seem tired: What did Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) know, and when did he know it? But here's a new twist:

Much was made of Hastert's unusual decision to side with House Dems in 5/06 and criticize the FBI raid of Rep. Bill Jefferson's (D-LA) Rayburn House offices. Why was Hastert siding with Min. Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and against the GOP-led Bush admin. But has anyone drawn a connection between Hastert's defense of Jefferson and the Mark Foley scandal? In other words, was Hastert defending Jefferson against the FBI in 5/06 because he feared that a legal precedent would be set, allowing the FBI to raid offices like, say, Foley's and perhaps, Weldon's? [JOHN MERCURIO]

Mehlman Pushes Back; Says GOP Is Committed To Ohio

Yes, RNC chairman Ken Mehlman's conference call with Ohio reprorters this morning was "hastily arranged." Mehlman called Adam Nagourney's Page 1 New York Times article "very inaccurate" but refused to "get more specific" because he didn't Democrats to read from his playbook, he said.

Nagourney reported that Republicans "are moving" to downsize their committment to Ohio after many of the party's senior strategists concluded that the Senate race there was unwinnable -- that incumbent Mike DeWine would mostly likely be defeated. Mehlman doesn't seem to dispute that sentence.

But Nagourney goes further, implying that the "decision," wrote Nagourney, to "effectively write off" Ohio has already been made. That -- Mehlman rejects.

In plain language, there's a distinction between reducing resources and getting out.

Republican strategists familiar with "internal deliberations" Nagourney cites do not dispute the premise of his article -- that the RNC, in particular, is preparing to adjust its spending to target races which have a better chance of falling their way. They do dispute the notion that the White House, RNC and NRSC have effectively written off the state, noting that national Republicans still have reserved millions worth of advertising time there and will not divert an ounce of GOTV machinery to another state. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "Mehlman Pushes Back; Says GOP Is Committed To Ohio" »

Is McCaskill Broke Or Just A Savvy Investor?

MO SEN nominee/Aud. Claire McCaskill’s (D) latest FEC report shows she ended the 3rd quarter (on 9/30) with less than $247K CoH, far below any other credible Senate candidate at this point. However the McCaskill camp informs us that before the quarter ended, they had already spent $2M on advertising covering the final 3 weeks on the campaign. (They disbursed nearly $5.5M total over the 3rdQ). They also state that their finances are comparable to those of Sen. Jim Talent (R) at this point in the 2002 campaign before he went on to defeat then-Sen. Jean Carnahan (D). McCaskill spokesperson Adrianne Marsh: “We feel very good about this quarter; we are meeting or surpassing all of our goals.”

Talent spent about $4.8M over the 3rdQ, but ended 9/30 with $4.2M CoH. [QUINN MCCORD]

The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. FL 16: Not Unwinnable?

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/11-13 for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel and the Treasure Coast Newspapers; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/15). Tested: Businessman Tim Mahoney (D) and State Rep. Joe Negron (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
             All Dem GOP Ind        Mahoney          47%/16%
Mahoney      48% 88% 17% 56%        Negron           37 /18
Negron       41   5  73  27
Other/undec  11   7  10  17

Continue reading "The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates" »

Today On Hotline TV: Foley Flips Florida

We look at the impact ex-Rep. Mark Foley is having on his home state. Could Florida end up helping Dems retake the House? Find out about some Dems who might soon find themselves accidental members of Congress.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Today's Hotline Spotlight: What The Election Is About

Between now and election day, On Call will publish a special edition of the Hotline's Spotlight, the editors' daily analysis of the political scene. To learn about about the Hotline and our daily publications, click here.

Two new stories say a lot about what this election is about (and what it's not).

-- On 10/14, the Washington Post did an A1 story on how hot Dem challengers are this year. Hot -- as in physically attractive.

This week, Time covers Sen. Barack Obama through the prism of 2008.

Three weeks from Election Day, there's been little or no coverage of the Democrats' agenda.

That's stunning to us.

Yes, the pre-vote impact of the 1994 Contract with America has been overstated. But it served the GOP masterfully as a short term governing plan. They knew what they'd do even before they were sworn into office.

This year, what's the Democrats' plan for '07? By this we don't mean that they'll try to raise the minimum wage within the first 96 hours. We mean: where's the transition planning? What's the agenda? What's the schedule? Who's in charge?

Much is being made of the White House not even preparing to work with a Democratic-led Congress; Do the Dems know what they'd do?

Consider this: Should Democrats win both chambers, the new classes will define the party much more than average freshmen rosters.

Many of the new Democrats in the House will hail from Red or Dark Purple states. In a presidential cycle (with Hillary Clinton as their presumed standard bearer), they'll have targets on their back from the get-go. They are also likely to be marginally more conservative than the Democratic mean. (IN '08 candidate Brad Ellsworth, who might represent a district Pres. Bush won by 12 points, is a good example.) These new Dems will pull their caucus to the right.

The forecast for the Senate is different.. Senate Dems will take (at least domestically) a turn to the left, if populists like Sanders, Brown, McCaskill, Tester and Webb win.

11/7 is a referendum on Bush as well as GOP ethics. It's not clear whether any swing voter backs a new Dem agenda.

Is that why we haven't heard more about one?

FBI Raids Home Of Weldon Daughter, Friend

Just this morning, per the Inky.

Apparently, the placement and timing of the original newspaper story were prescient.

Federal agents raided the home of the daughter of U.S. Rep. Curt Weldon (R., Pa.) and his longtime friend Charlie Sexton this morning.

The agents departed Karen Weldon's three-story brick home on Queen Street in Philadelphia with arms loaded with boxes.

A government car pulled into the alley to the back door of the house and loaded boxes into it. Three agents standing in an alley declined to identify themselves.

"I can confirm that we conducted a number of searches regarding an ongoing investigation," said FBI agent Jerri Williams, a spokeswoman in Philadelphia. "Details regarding those investigation cannot be provided because the accompanying affidavit is sealed."

Reid Amends Disclosure; Responds To GOP "Smear"

From a statement issued by Sen. Harry Reid's office. Read all the way through...

“Last month, Republicans openly boasted that they would engage in a campaign of personal attacks and smears to hold onto power in Washington. In recent days, we witnessed their latest attempt to do just that.

“Republicans may believe in cover-ups. I believe in ensuring all facts come to light.

“Last week, a highly misleading report by the Associated Press implied that I made a profit selling land I no longer owned. That article was wrong. Here are the facts: I bought the land in 1998, I sold it in 2004, and I listed my ownership of the land on official Senate disclosure forms every single year.

Continue reading "Reid Amends Disclosure; Responds To GOP "Smear"" »

Hot Senate Race Updates From The Hotline

Sen. Conrad Burns (R) is up with a new TV ad by McCarthy Marcus Hennings featuring the endorsement of ex-Gov. Marc Racicot (R): RACICOT: "In an effort to distort a good man's record, and in one of the most negative political campaigns in Montana's history, the attacks against Conrad Burns have been unrelenting and shameful. I served and worked with Conrad for almost 20 years -- he's the same honest and decent man we've always known." Meanwhile, the DSCC is up with a new ad by Murphy Putnam Shorr on behalf of Jon Tester (D): ANNCR: "Conrad delivers, but not for Montana. Conrad Burns voted to cut funding for our fight against meth and against funding for Montana schools. But he took $150,000 dollars from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates and delivered millions for one of Abramoff's clients. Conrad Burns. Delivering for Jack Abramoff ... not us. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is responsible for the content of this advertising" (release, 10/13).

2. MISSOURI: Dem poll has McCaskill up by 5

A Bennett Petts & Blumenthal (D) poll; conducted 10/9-11 for the DSCC; survyeed 800 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.46% (release, 10/13). Tested: Sen. Jim Talent (R) and Aud. Claire McCaskill (D).

General Election Matchup
McCaskill            48%
Talent               43
Other/undec           9

3. MICHIGAN: Independent Poll Has Stabenow Up By Double-Digits

A Selzer & Co. poll; conducted 10/8-11 for the Detroit Free Press; surveyed 643 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.9% (Hotline sources, 10/16). Tested: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R).

General Election Matchup
             Now 8/30 7/12
Stabenow     48% 50%  50%
Bouchard     35  37   29
Other/undec  17  13   21

Daily 2008 Presidential Race Buzz

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) was apparently the first '08 hopeful of this cycle to swing through that small New Hampshire town. He also said this about Paul Hodes's congressional candidacy: "Vote for Paul, vote for Paul, that's the key. You need a backstop for the next two years and that's Congress. You can win this district. For God's sake, for the sake of the people of Delaware, do it." Biden says he's confident of a House victory and hopeful about a Senate one.

Sen. John Kerry called the Iraq war a "disgrace," took in 10 standing ovations, said Bush and Republicans were liars, and asked voters (and reporters) for a second chance.

Meanwhile, the Keene Sentinel agrees with Sen. Chris Dodd that recent anti-terrorism bills are "devastating" for civil rights.

Over to Iowa, where Ex-Sen. John Edwards set foot in nine cities this weekend.

George Soros has given $75K to one of Wes Clark's PACs.

Re: Bill Clinton's visit to Iowa. Pretty much the entire national press corps believes this:

Clinton came to rally Democrats three weeks before critical midterm elections. But his visit may have served another purpose as well. Alone among prospective Democratic presidential candidates for 2008, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) has not set foot in the state all year, and the futures market in Clinton political stock here has been suffering.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton sneaks into the 13th paragraph of Tom Beaumont's write up in the Des Moines Register.

“The price of same-sex marriage is paid by the children," Gov. Mitt Romney told a nationwide audience of conservative activists Sunday. Also: "Federal officials are probing scathing allegations that the Romney administration falsely claimed to conduct safety inspections in the Big Dig tunnel that collapsed and killed a woman in July."

Obama's Audacious PR Tour

As Fergie says, "Check it out..."

The Audacity of Hope, Sen. Barack Obama's second book, will be uncrated at bookstores everywhere on Tuesday. His publicity tour hits all of the heavyweights. It began over the weekend with Time Magazine, which gave its cover to the senator with 99th lowest seniority. Joe Klein wrote the lead article (which included this fascinating sentence to describe how Obama elicits different reactions: "The African Americans tend to be fairly reserved--quiet pride, knowing nods and be-careful-now looks. The white people, by contrast, are out of control").

On Wednesday, Obama appears on Oprah from Chicago. Thursday and Friday is devoted to conventional interviews on The Today Show, Tom Joyner's radio show, NPR, Tavis Smiley, and a variety of niche media. Obama tapes 60 Minutes for Sunday, and then on Sunday morning, is Tim Russert's guest on Meet the Press.

BTW: Here is Obama's careful construction about 2008, per Klein:

"When the election is over and my book tour is done, I will think about how I can be most useful to the country and how I can reconcile that with being a good dad and a good husband," he says carefully, and then adds, "I haven't completely decided or unraveled that puzzle yet."

Sunday Snapshot: Debates And North Korea

As Election Day approaches, Senate races are getting more attention from the Sunday shows. "Meet the Press" hosted the MN SEN debate with Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) and Hennepin County Atty Amy Klobuchar (D). "This Week" had TN SEN candidates ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) and Rep. Harold Ford (D) on in separate interviews.

Get all your Sunday Show highlights after the jump.

Continue reading "Sunday Snapshot: Debates And North Korea" »

MD GOV -- It's All About Baltimore

BALTIMORE – One down, one to go.

MD Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) and Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) hit on familiar themes in the first part of an unusual day-night debate doubleheader today. Though state issues were discussed, the commentary often found its way to a proxy battle between an unpopular Pres. Bush the city of Baltimore.

The conversational debate, held at WJZ-TV studios in Baltimore, was a contrast in styles. O’Malley was generally more polished, repeatedly invoking the idea of the “two Bob Ehrlichs” – the one of the first three years in office and the one running for re-election. The governor, meanwhile, was animated and spoke bluntly, especially about problems in Baltimore. “Without us, you are done,” Ehrlich, referring to state funds in the city budget. And twice he followed O’Malley’s lofty, “poetic” statements by saying: “I don’t know what any of that means.”

O’Malley surrogates accused Ehrlich of “revisionist history,” taking credit for the work of the majority-Democratic legislature. And Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) supported O’Malley’s effort to link Ehrlich to Bush. “People in Maryland are very firmly convinced we’re on the wrong track under George Bush’s leadership. And anyone who believes that George Bush is providing that leadership, as Governor Ehrlich is, [it] shows he’s on the wrong track.”

Ehrlich didn’t run from Congress, alluding to his service in the House on several occasions. “That record got me elected governor of Maryland,” Ehrlich said in an interview after the debate. And responding to O’Malley’s frequent references to Bush, Ehrlich said: “I think he’s either running for president or channeling John Kennedy too much.”

The unusual timing of the debates, twice in the same day, resulted from a last minute compromise after weeks of back-and-forth accusations that each camp was ducking a confrontation. Tonight's debate will actually be seen first, live on WBAL-TV. The afternoon event was taped for broadcast on WJZ-TV this Monday night [MIKE MEMOLI]

Clinton Does Damage Control After "Adviser" Slams McCain

Sen. Hillary Clinton rushed to quiet a row today set off by a vicious slur against Sen. John McCain that columnist Maureen Dowd attributed to one of her advisers.

The adviser, speaking of McCain's criticism this week of BIll and Hillary Clinton's posture toward North Korea, said that McCain wound up "looking similar to the way he did on those captive tapes from Hanoi, where he recited the names of his crew mates.”"

The harsh dig refers to a vicious and unfounded rumor, circa 2000, that McCain gave up the names of his crew mates to the North Vietnamese. The whisper campaign was used to portray McCain as unstable and mentally scarred by his captivity.

Asked by the New York Daily News about the comment, John Weaver, McCain's chief strategist, e-mailed this response:

"I never expected the Clintons or their allies to know much about Vietnam. But [it] is disappointing to see one of her spokespeople purposefully lie about John's war record and time in a Hanoi prison camp. There was no such tape recording; though he did once give up the starting lineup of the Green Bay Packers while under extreme duress. Senator Clinton's spokesperson does a disservice to all who were there and served so bravely and honorably."

The adviser was apparently being caustic and catty without permission.

We know that Clinton's real team of advisers was angry and upset. Clinton's political spokesman, Howard Wolfson, e-mailed us this statement: ""These comments are reprehensible and they in no way reflect Senator Clinton's feelings."

Clinton called McCain this morning to apologize and to disassociate herself from her advisers' freelancing.

The small episode demonstrates four points about the '08 race.

One -- McCain will beat back rumors more quickly and aggressively than he was able to do in 2000.

Two -- Someone on Clinton's team is scared enough of McCain to libel him in a chat with MoDo.

Three -- the rapid, public response of Wolfson suggests that Clinton does not, in fact, believe the slur about McCain.

Four -- the person who talked to Dowd violated a cardinal rule of politics -- never, ever, let your principal (Clinton) be tied to a dirty trick. In other words, the "Clinton adviser" did his or her boss an enormous disservice by allowing Dowd to attribute the remark to a "Clinton adviser," rather than as a "Democrat" or someone else. Think about it -- what better way is there to get conservatives to rally to McCain's side? BTW: we don't know the leaker is.

McCain and Clinton get along and respect each other. They are said to joke and josh around in private, both aware of their roles in history and within their party. McCain's shot across the bow on North Korea was designed to get Clinton to draw a contrast with McCain on an issue -- not on a personal attribute. And now, someone, somewhere on Clinton's team -- let's face it, Dowd has good Clinton sources -- has lifted McCain the high ground.

Probably Not Surprising...

...but here's statistical proof that Pres. Bush's 2006 campaign schedule is not matching his 2002 schedule. According to CongressDaily's Keith Koffler, Bush made fewer campaign appearances in Sept. than his wife, Laura Bush. Since 8/1, Bush has spoken at non-DC political events with GOP candidates 15 times, compared to 29 such events from 8/1/02 through mid-Oct. '02.

Full CongressDaily article after the jump. CongressDaily subscribers, click here. For more information about subscribing to CongressDaily, click here.

Continue reading "Probably Not Surprising..." »

The Saturday Brunch

A special news digest from the editors of the Hotline.

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

Bush and Clinton will be active on the trail in the last week ... The nasty knob has been turned up in TX GOV and MA GOV. ... Hefley is trying to save a GOP seat in CO. ... And who will be the new quirky centrist Dem in WH '08? Look up in the Big Sky: it's a bird, it's a plane, it's...

WHAT'S BREWING

The Big Four: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.


Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

1. Playing Hardball: Could Chris Matthews be Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick’s (R-PA 08) biggest asset 11/06? Fitzpatrick’s (first TV ad) features damaging footage from Iraq war vet Patrick Murphy’s 08/05 interview with the MSNBC host.

2. Saving A Sinking Ship?: Pres. Bush travels to PA 10 10/19 to "raise campaign cash" for Rep. Don Sherwood during an "invitation only" $350/person fundraiser (Times-Leader).

3. A Tortured Debate: Rep. Chris Shays was "under fire" 10/12 in CT 04 for saying during debate that the abuse at Abu Ghraib prison was "not torture" but rather a "sex ring involving National Guard troops." Although he said he "doesn't doubt there has been torture at other prisons," he said he "saw probably 600 pictures of really gross, perverted stuff" and the " bottom line was it was sex. It wasn't primarily about torture." Asked about Amensty International's pihotos showing violence to detainees, Shays answered, "we also don't know where those could have been from."

Meanwhile, Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell (D) said "for Chris to say it was a sex ring is to minimize what happened. Chris knows it was certainly more than a sex ring" (Stamford Advocate).

4. First Dem To Say He's Not Voting For Nancy: In FL 08, Rep. Ric Keller (R) described businessman Charlie Stuart (D) "as a tax-raising Nancy Pelosi liberal" while Stuart "cast Keller as a do-nothing lawmaker who if re-elected would be either a lame duck or a promise-breaker." Keller took issue "with Stuart's claim to be a conservative" Dem who would vote for Pelosi as speaker if the Dems win the House. When Keller said "Let me see if I'm misdirecting. Nancy Pelosi or Dennis Hastert," Stuart, responded "I will not vote for Nancy Pelosi" later saying he would support Rep. Steny Hoyer (Orlando Sentinel).

Frist Defends Hastert; Urges Donations To His Campaign

Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist sent the following message to his VolPAC e-mail list. It combines a stout defense of Speaker Dennis Hastert, with an appeal to raise money for Hastert's re-election campaign.

For many years now in Washington, there has been a strong, conservative quietly shepherding through the Congress President Bush’s policies. That conservative never seeks the limelight and always puts his country first. His name is Dennis Hastert.

From the beginning, Speaker Hastert has championed President Bush’s policies to fight and win the war on terror, keep taxes low and put commonsense health, energy, and education policies in place. He is also a man of strong faith.

Now in a moment of crisis, national Democrat leaders like John Kerry--whose vision of increasing taxes, running up the deficit, and cutting and running in the war on terror has been rejected by the voters over and over again--are attacking Speaker Hastert for Mark Foley’s despicable behavior, (a sick man who hid his misdeeds from all his colleagues, Democrats and Republicans).

By their attack, these self-serving Democrats seek to take the Speaker and Republicans, out of the fight to keep America strong, safe, and secure, and hurt the President and the Agenda we have all fought so hard for over these last six years. We cannot let that happen.

To show your support for Speaker Hastert, I urge you to make a contribution of whatever you can afford to his campaign for Congress. To make a contribution, please click here

We have stopped John Kerry and the liberal Democrats once before, and we need to do so now. We must stand with Speaker Hastert and continue to fight for the values and vision for America we all share.

Hillary Clinton Gives Back

Sen. Hillary Clinton emptied her campaign account of more than $9M this quarter, pouring millions into Democratic Senate and House campaign committees and writing large checks to individual candidates.

As she stepped up her campaign activity and lent several of her fundraisers to other Democrats, she took in $3.8 million. Her cash on hand dropped from $22M to $15M, the result of the transfers, heavy spending on television ads and the cost of her campaign apparatus.

Patti Solis Doyle, Clinton's campaign manager: "As this report demonstrates, Senator Clinton’s supporters have made sure she has the resources to run a vigorous, effective campaign throughout New York. With 25 days until election day, we’re not taking anything for granted. We are doing all we can to support Democrats in New York and around the country in this critical election year.”

Toning Down Terror?

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)-- stumping for Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT) on Wednesday-- said he didn't come to CT to talk about taxes. Instead, Giuliani said he was stumping for Simmons because he is "helping us with the security of the country and the world.”

Giuliani’s CT appearance falls squarely into usual danger-invoking, pure-security stump speech, where bed rock GOP themes are less important than the cumulative effect of 9/11. Earlier this month, at stops in WA, OR, IL, and RI he delivered the same security-packed message. Giuliani: "People care about the war on terror -- seven, eight out of the 10 people that I talk to think we are going to be attacked again."

But in his inaugural visit to NH, Giuliani seemed to tone down the security alert, and even the 9/11 references. Speaking at a fundrasing lunch for NH GOPers, Giuliani called the state GOP "a great example of what Republican parties should be all across the country ... No income tax or sales tax." His advice to a GOPers: "Stick to the fundamentals of why people vote for Republicans. We lower taxes, the Democrats raise taxes. We believe in smaller government. They believe in government solutions." [NORA MCALVANAH]

Ney'll Resign When He's Good And Ready

Having now appeared in court, I need to close up my congressional office. I want to make sure that my staff members are okay and that any open constituent matters and obligations are taken care of. Once I have done these things, I will be resigning from Congress. This will be done in the next few weeks.

If you're a member of the House GOP leadership, that'll make you cough.

House Leadership Warns Ney: Get Out, Now

Republicans wonder what took them so long:

Hastert/Boehner/Blunt/Pryce:

"Bob Ney must be punished for the criminal actions he has acknowledged. He betrayed his oath of office and violated the trust of those he represented in the House. There is no place for him in this Congress. If he chooses not to resign his office, we will move to expel him immediately as our first order of business when Congress resumes its legislative work in November."

Min. Leader Pelosi: ""Speaker Hastert and the Republican leadership have allowed Mr. Ney to remain on the public payroll for a month after his admission of guilt to criminal conspiracy charges. House Republican leaders have a long pattern of protecting Republican members, even when it comes at great cost to the American people. "

Mahtesian: Are House GOP Woes Just Beginning?

Charles Mahtesian, the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, writes in the latest edition of National Journal that "losing the House might be just the beginning of the House Republicans' troubles: The post-1994 political era has demonstrated that a congressional caucus newly relegated to minority status continues hemorrhaging long after Election Day.That was the bitter, unexpected lesson that Democrats learned in the aftermath of the 1994 upheaval. Within a year, the scent of majority power had enticed five House Democrats and two Senate Democrats to switch their allegiance to the Republican Party. And that wasn't the end of the Democratic Party's bleeding. As the durability of the House GOP's majority became clear, three more Democrats found their way to the Republican Conference between 2000 and 2004, each defection making the party's climb back to power that much steeper.Despite vigorous claims to the contrary, nearly every case of party-switching involved a calculus that apparently had as much to do with ambition and self-preservation as ideology."

He continues: "It will be difficult for Republicans to imagine that they have other potential traitors in their midst. That's because congressional party-switching has been an almost exclusively Democratic malady for more than a quarter-century. When the occasional Republican like Jeffords or then-Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire did leave the family, the defector became an independent, never going so far as to formally join the Democratic ranks. (Smith, in fact, returned to the GOP fold in November 1999, less than a year after leaving it for a short-lived presidential bid.)"

"However, if the Democrats retake the House this November 7, the self-serving calculus used by a generation of Southern politicians in defecting from the Democratic Party may well begin to make sense for nail-biting, blue-state Republicans across the Northeast and in parts of the Midwest as they begin to ponder a future without chairmanships, a future weighed down by the drag of a socially conservative, Southern- and Western-based national party."

Subscribers to National Journal can read the full article online.

CNN: Ney atty says Congressman will resign next week

Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH) will formally resign from the House "in the next week or so," his atty told CNN this a.m.

HRH Extra: Wave Or Scandal?

If Republicans lose control of the House, will it be because of President Bush and Congress's low approval ratings or because of scandal?

Three of our top six "vulnerable seats" (FL 16, TX 22, PA 10) are in play primarily because of scandal, and not because of an anti-Bush/anti-GOP wave. Another two (NY 26, OH 18) are also high on our list. If the Dems win control by only a narrow majority, ethics scandals will have provided the majority for victory.

If there is a sizable wave, look at the GOP-held seats in the Philly suburbs, Connecticut and the open seats in the Midwest. Republican incumbents and capable candidates are running here in mostly Democratic or Democratic-trending CDs. If Republicans hold these seats, the NRCC's "all politics is local" mantra would certainly ring true. If not, Dems could be looking at winning over 20 seats.

But the surprise of this cycle is that Dems could win the House without winning big in their most favorable territory. Instead, Chris Carney, Tim Mahoney and Zack Space -- once considered long-shots -- could be heading to Congress. If that happens, '08 promises to be a very volatile cycle. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Focus On The Family's Response To Kuo Book

What this statement, by Focus's Carrie Gordon Earll says is: there's no possible way that our allies could ever have said stuff behind our backs like that. Right? Right?

It's undeniably true -- from talking to former colleagues of Kuo's -- that he was upset when the administration didn't focus as much on his brief after 9/11. We also know that lots of reassuring phone calls from the White House's office of public liaison and from Karl Rove's office have been made to the circle of evangelical leaders who may be offended by Kuo's book.

"The release of this book criticizing the Bush administration's handling of its faith-based initiative program seems to represent little more than a mix of sour grapes and political timing. David Kuo's book doesn't hit shelves until next week, but excerpts released by media outlets paint the picture of a dissatisfied federal employee taking shots at the White House effort to connect faith-based nonprofit groups with legitimate societal needs.

"Big media will no doubt play this story to the hilt in the next several weeks, because it allows them to take aim at two of their favorite targets: President Bush and socially conservative Christians. Sadly, Kuo's characterization of his former colleagues, bosses and mission -- mischaracterizations, really -- will be fed to the public as truth.

"While Focus on the Family does not participate in the faith-based initiative program, we are allies with many who do -- and they have far different impressions of the people and events documented in Kuo's book. Our support for the program is unchanged, and we applaud the president's hard work in reducing dependency on government programs while connecting people to their communities. It's a commitment that dates back to his time as governor of Texas and one that will be a large and important part of his White House legacy."

The Daily Troika: 2008 Buzz Of The Day

Hotline After Dark -- Hodge Podgein' It

TV was a hodge podge of topics last night: North Korea, the NY plane crash, updates on Mark Foley, Mel Gibson's apology and Robin Williams played "Hardball."

Some Williams highlights:

"Al Gore, much more articulate now, and a little bit bigger behind."

On Pres. Bush: "He is the greatest gift that comedy has ever had."

Asked if the country is ready for a Pres. Hillary Clinton: "Vice President Oprah, I think they're ready for, because I would just like to see the debate between Oprah and Condoleezza. I think that's a Pay Per View event" (MSNBC, 10/12).

Gotta Have Faith

Meanwhile, there was talk of the forthcoming "Tempting Faith" book.

Family Research Council Pres. Tony Perkins, on David Kuo's book "Tempting Faith": "The timing comes out right before an election. It's another one of those kiss-and-tell books that we see so often. And yes he was in the administration, he was frustrated. I've encountered David, I don't think the program moved as fast as he wanted it to. I think people realize that the administration or the Republicans in general need the social conservative, they need that vote. Do they understand it, do they respect it totally? Probably not, we understand that" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 10/12).

And Now Your Foley Update

FNC's Hume: "Former Congressman Foley's one-time chief of staff, Kirk Fordham ... testified before the House Ethics Committee today. His lawyer, Tim Heaphy, says his client was, quote, 'forthcoming' and gave testimony consistent with his previous statements" ("Special Report," 10/12).

CNN's Bash: "CNN is told, Fordham was so concerned about Foley's behavior, he arranged a meeting three or four years between the speaker's chief of staff and Mark Foley. That move was prompted, in part, by an alarming report Fordham got. His boss, Mark Foley, has allegedly shown up at the page's dorm, drunk -- that according to a source familiar with Fordham's account. In response to Fordham's charge that he alerted GOP officials about Foley, the speaker's chief of staff has only issued this one- line statement: 'What Kirk Fordham said did not happen.' Who is telling the truth? Did anyone cover it up? That's what the Ethics Committee must determine, as it judges how the Republican leadership dealt with the Foley matter" ("AC 360," 10/12).

Blink And You Missed It

There was not a lot on Mark Warner's decision not to run in '08. The "Special Report" roundtable discussed it.

FNC's Hume: "Whenever a politician says in effect that he wants to spend more time with his family, political journalists roll their eyes and start wondering what the real reason is."

NPR's Liasson: "It sounds like he's been mulling over this decision or having second thoughts about it for quite a number of weeks. And this was the time to, if he was going to pull the plug to do it, because people were starting to put their lives on hold for him and sign up and raise money."

FNC's Kondracke: "Yeah, it sounds you talked to Larry Sabato, too."

Liasson: "No, I actually didn't talk to Larry Sabato" ("Special Report," 10/12).

CNN's Schneider: "Not a single candidate is running for president yet but that doesn't stop people from asking who is helped, who is hurt by Mark Warner's decision not to run" ("Situation Room," 10/12).

And Now The Real Issues

Ex-Sec/State James Baker and ex-9/11 Commiss. Lee Hamilton were on "NewsHour" to discuss the Iraq Study Group.

Baker: "What we would like to do is to see if we can come forward with a consensus report. It won't be worth much if Republicans go one way and Democrats go another."

More Baker: "If our report is going to mean anything, if it's going to have any chance of being embraced by opinion-makers in the United States, by the administration, by the Congress, we really have to take it out of politics. It cannot be seen to be politically inspired or politically motivated or politically directed, and we couldn't do that if we reported before the election, midterm election."

Hamiliton: "We're doing our level best to try to understand a very, very complicated situation and to come up with recommendations, as Secretary Baker has suggested, that will be broadly supported, will be pragmatic, will be constructive, and forward-looking. We are not trying to analyze the past" (PBS, 10/12). [EMILY GOODIN]

White House Race Rankings: One Down...

The Big Four: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Slamming Mahoney: The NRCC hasn't "yet given up on" FL 16, spending $244,300 so far in TV ads targeting venture capitalist Tim Mahoney (D).
Yet while Mahoney's camp says the NRCC has also "committed to spend" another $690K by reserving air time through 11/7, the NRCC "doesn't have to use the time -- or pay for it -- if they later determine it is not necessary." NRCC spokesperson Ed Patru says the NRCC "absolutely haven't given up on the seat" and State Rep. Joe Negron (R) says its shows GOPers "are in a fighting mood."

Meanwhile, Mahoney consultant Charles Halloran says "the bosses in Washington have sent $934,000 in tainted funds to prop up" House Speaker Dennis Hastert's "hand-picked attack dog." (Washington Post).

2. The Peanuts Gallery: Rep. John Doolittle (R) and retired USAF officer Charlie Brown (D) "went after each other in a bruising" debate 10/11 p.m. Doolittle called Brown a "flim-flam man who is conservative in the daytime and hobnobs with [SF Mayor] Willie Brown and the liberals in San Francisco at night." What's more, Doolittle called the ACLU, to which Brown belongs, a group that has "protected the interests of the North American Man/Boy Love Association."

Brown responded "Doolittle knows more about man's love than I do with his support of" ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL 16) and asked Doolittle to "take responsibility" for the money he took from "convicted felons" such as ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff, businessman Brent Wilkes and Foley. (Sacramento Bee).

3. More Monentum?: A series of new DCCC polls shows Dems leading GOPers in IL 06, OH 18, PA 10, and VT AL. To highlight a few -- in VT AL, Sen. Peter Welch (D) leads ex-VT Nat'l Guard Adj. Gen. Martha Rainville (R) 52-41%. Meanwhile in PA 10, Naval reserve officer/prof. Chris Carney (D) leads Rep. Don Sherwood (R) 51-37%.

4. Rob and Rudy: In CT 02, Rep. Rob Simmons (R) launched a new TV ad featuring ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). Giuliani addresses 9/11. GIULIANI: "We've prevented domestic attacks, but the terrorists have not relented. We're safer, but we're not safe enough."

He continued, "That's why we need Rob Simmons back in Congress. Rob knows we must improve our intelligence to stop attacks before they happen. Rob has fought for and won critical dollars for Connecticut's first responders. Rob's independent and absolutely the right guy to keep our country safe."

Warner: Virginia Fallout

By pulling out of the WH race, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) would seem to have at least two clear future political options, neither of which he ruled out at his press conference this morning. VA's senior Senator, John Warner (R), is up in '08. Warner, 79, was elected to the Senate in 1978 . The powerful Armed Services Committee chair has not yet indicated whether he'll seek a 6th term. One consideration for the senator: his term handling the Armed Services gavel comes to an end in January of '07. As a WW II and Korean veteran of both the Navy and Marines, not to mention an ex-Sec of the Navy, it is unclear whether Warner would want to spend 6 more years in the Senate watching somebody else chair the committee he sought for two decades.

Ex-NRCC chair/Rep. Tom Davis (R) has made clear his intent to run for the seat should Warner retire, but there is no logical Dem to take on the veteran Fairfax lawmaker. Or there wasn't until this morning. M. Warner, whose first campaign ended in what he calls a "second-place" finish to the elder Warner in '96, has the political base, name id and deep pockets to take on Davis. Such a race would be a titanic battle between two popular, Northern VA moderates with many overlapping supporters. Like the George Allen vs. Chuck Robb race in '00 -- another contest between two well-known veterans of VA politics -- M Warner vs. Davis would also be the premier SEN race of the cycle, drawing gobs of coverage from political reporters who live, work and vote in the neighborhood. A Warner win, and almost-certain effort to get on Armed Services or Foreign Relations, would offer the military and foreign affairs experience he so glaringly lacks right now.

Continue reading "Warner: Virginia Fallout" »

Ballot Initiative Watch

Along with 34 Sens, 435 Reps and 36 Gov races this year, Americans will decide the fate of 204 ballot measures come 11/7. Some of those measures are house-keeping efforts -- raising tax lids, dividing electoral jurisdictions, etc.
Others, though, may have a measurable affect on turnout and even go so far as to swing some races. It is those The Hotline will be following, and we'll report their results post-election day.

Same-Sex Marriage

GOPers used the issue to boost turnout among their social conservative base in '04, and this year, they're trying the same thing in AZ, CO, ID, SC, SD, TN, VA and WI. Most of the states are just bans on marriage, though CO has dueling propositions.

CO Amendment 43 would ban same sex marriage by defining marriage as a union between a man and a woman; CO Referendum I, however, would create legally-recognized domestic partnerships, which would grant same-sex couples most of the rights and responsibilities of marriage. Should the two initiatives pass, which polls suggest they are likely to do, both would become law, as each measure has been written to avoid conflict that would have to be resolved legally. [REID WILSON]

Continue reading "Ballot Initiative Watch" »

Foley: The 10 Races To Watch

Of course, no district is exactly the same, and no race is affected by the Foley scandal in precisely the same way. With that in mind, strategists from both parties are closely watching 10 competitive House races -- all in GOP-held districts, many of which are Republican strongholds -- that are directly affected by the page scandal for different reasons. Here they are, in order of how dramatically the Foley storyline has changed the race.

Read John Mercurio's Politiscope.

The Big Three: Hot Senate Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. With A Thousand Million Questions: In their third MO debate, '04 GOV nominee/Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) "immediately went on the offensive" against Sen. Jim Talent,(R) using "her opening statement to cast herself as the next" Harry Truman. Meanwhile, she described Talent as an "unquestioning supporter" of Pres. Bush's "stubborn and failed foreign policy." Yet Talent said McCaskill "supports consistent positions of weakness on the war on terror" (AP/Washington Post).

2. Two Cardin Ads, Eleven Bush Mentions: Rep. Ben Cardin's (D) up with a new ad linking LG Michael Steele (R) to Pres. Bush and VP Cheney. He says Steele was "recruited by" them, "supports Bush's plan to privatize" SS and "Bush's war in Iraq," concluding Steele's "right for Bush. Wrong for" MD.

Yet in a new TV ad, Steele asks, "Now, after 40 years in politics," Cardin "says he can change Washington?" Cardin and Dems "put bureaucracy ahead of our kids," adding "some" GOPers "forget folks still climbing that ladder" (release, 10/12).

3. Let's Make Some Comparisons: Ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) launched two new TV ads in TN attacking Rep. Harold Ford (D). In the first ad, he says Ford's "lived politics," while he's "lived a Tennessee life," saying Ford "grew up in D.C...schooled at Penn...inherited a life in politics."

Instead, Corker says he "chose" U.T. and "built a business, a family, helped secure affordable homes for thousands to rebuild a city." What's more, he uses actor/ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R) to reiterate his "real world experience" in his second TV ad. Thompson says TN's "produced solid leaders with vast experience outside politics" and Corker's "of the same tradition."

Meanwhile off-the-screen, Both Corker and Ford are accusing "each other of using political connections improperly." Ford's camp says Corker took "quid pro quo" campaign donations. Ford sr. advisor Michael Powel said Corker "put city workers' pensions at risk so his business parter could get rich," while Ford's attacked for his father's lobbying work, which creates "an uncomfortable relationship that raises questions of impropriety." (Chattanooga Free Times Press).

The Daily Troika: Your Home For 2008 Buzz

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY) announced "the latest editions" to his 21st Century Freedom PAC's state leadership team in NH. They include Alderman Mike Garrity of Manchester, Statham developer Renee Rydell, Hampton selectman Rick Griffin, St. Anselm college GOP chair Brian Lawson, activist Tammy Simmons, cong. staff member Rick Richardson, philanthropist Ben Gamache, NH College GOP chair Tom DeRosa, State Rep. David Currier, and Matt Mayberry, a BC04 county chair. Pataki: "November will be a significant election for us. We need to remind voters across the country that it is the Republican Party that has long fought for lower taxes, smaller government and a strong defense. These ideals represent what is great about America and it citizens (release, 10/12)

Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) criticized the attorney general of OK, Drew Edmondson, for "playing politics" by "demonizing the poultry industry and setting unrealistic goals for reduced pollution levels in Oklahoma's rivers." Huckabee: "Unfortunately, your attorney general is not interested in resolving this situation. He's more interested in headlines. It's a great political platform for him." Huckabee was in Tulsa to campaign for GOP candidates. Edmondson contends that AR poultry companies' litter is "fouling Oklahoma waterways." Huckabee said Edmondson's proposed remedy "has no scientific basis of possibility." Edmondson called Huckabee "a poultry company apologist" (Juozapavicius, AP, 10/12).

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America announced this a.m. that state Sen. Billy O'Dell has signed on to be a co-chair in SC.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) hosted a panel 10/11 where experts said the US financial system "is trapping low-income workers" in a "cycle of debt." The panel, held at Edwards's poverty study center in Chapel Hill, NC, "focused on the financial hurdles faced by poor Americans." Edwards "levied criticism" at "federal lawmakers on issues such as bankruptcy laws and the minimum wage." Edwards: "The Congress -- as long as it's in the condition it's in today --- will not pass a raise in the minimum wage. Meanwhile, the American people think it's a moral embarrassment to have Americans working for $51.5 an hour and still living in poverty" (Baker, AP, 10/11).

Warner: Decision Sets Off Scramble

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner's announcement will set off a scramble to attract the donors and staff he recruited. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), "will be working the phones all day long," a Bayh adviser said. It's not clear whether Warner will support any of his former rivals. He is close to Bayh, Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd.

Warner has a respectful relationship with Sen. Hillary Clinton, fundraisers connected with the two Democrats often bickered. Early on, Warner told donors Clinton "couldn't win," but softened his language after receiving a warning from some of Clinton's associates. Warner, one associate said, has been "irked" at how Ex-Sen. John Edwards's political advisers described his tenure in Virginia. An Edwards aide denies this.

Bayh was the first to release a statement: “Governor Warner is an exceptional public servant, a great leader, and an influential voice in the Democratic Party. I know how tough a decision that this must have been. Mark Warner has much to contribute to the national debate and I look forward to working with him to make our future everything it can be.”

Who else benefits?

Sen. Barack Obama. Consider: the profile of the typical Warner donor fits the time of donors who would instantly be attracted to Obama. They're new to Democratic politics, looking for a candidate who generates excitement, not impressed with the familiar flavors in the field. Obama is the guy who can scoop them up -- if he chooses to run. [MARC AMBINDER and CHUCK TODD]

Warner: It Just Wasn't Time

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner announced this a.m. that he would not run for president in 2008, telling supporters that his political ambitions conflicted with his personal inclinations and his family obligations. At a hastily arranged news conf. with reporters in Richmond, VA to explain his decision, Warner said that while "politically, this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge, at this point, I want to have a real life."

Warner's remarks were posted to his PAC website. Warner: "I can say with complete conviction that -- 15 months out from the first nomination contests -- I feel we would have had as good a shot to be successful as any potential candidate in the field. As for my family, Lisa and our three girls have always had a healthy amount of skepticism, but would have been willing to buckle down and support the effort. I love them all and appreciate their faith in me."

Warner and his family spent the weekend in CT celebrating his father's 81st birthday. "I know these moments are never going to come again," he said. While the chance to run for president "may never come again, I shouldn't move forward unless I'm willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner." More Warner: "It's not a decision I have easily reached. I made it after a lot of discussion with my family and a few close friends, and ultimately a lot of reflection, prayer, and soul-searching."

Warner said he hopes to continue "to serve, whether in elective office or in some other way." In the short-term, Warner said he'll "do everything I can to make sure Democrats win in 2006." He will keep today's planned engagements in Iowa.

Late yesterday, Warner informed the staff at his large political action committee, Forward Together. Many, particularly the more junior members, were stunned. The PAC had raised $9 million to help Democratic candidates and fund Warner's national political travels. His aggressive, secret fundraising strategy to raise $10K from 404 donors was well underway. His PAC had scouted office space in IA, NH and SC. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "Warner: It Just Wasn't Time" »

Warner's Statement: "I Have Decided Not To Run For President"

Statement of Governor Mark Warner
Forward Together PAC
October 12, 2006

Nine months ago, I left the office of Governor in Virginia. I was immensely proud of what we had accomplished. We faced historic challenges and got real results.

Upon leaving office, I committed all my time and energy to Forward Together because we need a new direction in America.

Everywhere I’ve traveled, I found hope that we could turn this country around. That Americans are looking for leaders who at this moment of enormous challenge for our country can actually bring us together and get things done.

I’ve heard that regardless of the depth of dismay at the direction President Bush has taken our country, rank and file Democrats are energized, and want ours to be a party of hope, not of anger.

I am especially proud of the work we’ve done in supporting those kinds of candidates throughout America.

We got a lot done.

Forward Together has contributed more money this year to Democratic candidates and party organizations than any other federal leadership PAC. Our effort raised over $9 million.

I headlined 86 events in 25 states to help raise or directly donate $7.3 million to Democrats this cycle.

And our work is not done—especially at home in Virginia, where I continue to work to help Jim Webb win.

But this has also been another kind of journey—one that would lead to a decision as to whether I would seek the Democratic nomination for President.

Late last year, I said to Lisa and my girls, “Let’s go down this path and make a decision around Election Day.”

But there were hiring decisions and people who’ve put their lives on hold waiting to join this effort.

So about a month ago, I told my family and people who know me best that I would make a final decision after Columbus Day weekend, which I was spending with my family. After 67 trips to 28 states and five foreign countries, I have made that decision.

I have decided not to run for President.

This past weekend, my family and I went to Connecticut to celebrate my Dad’s 81st birthday, and then we took my oldest daughter Madison to start looking at colleges.

I know these moments are never going to come again. This weekend made clear what I’d been thinking about for many weeks—that while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge—at this point, I want to have a real life.

And while the chance may never come again, I shouldn’t move forward unless I’m willing to put everything else in my life on the back burner.

Continue reading "Warner's Statement: "I Have Decided Not To Run For President"" »

AP/Post Confirm: Warner Bows Out

The AP's Bob Lewis and the Washington Post's Michael Shear both have Dem sources confirming that Warner has decided not to run for president.

We're still not able to pinpoint the reason.

Warner had campaign stops in Iowa planned for today. Sources close to Warner told the Hotline in September that Warner, after a long vacation with his family over the summer, had decided to run and was planning to open his exploratory committee in early winter.

Breaking: Warner May Not Run In '08

Ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner plans to make a major announcement today about his 2008 presidential bid, three Virginia Democratic sources said. According to two Virginia Democrats who have been formally briefed, Warner is expected to say that he has decided not to run for president in 2008. Warner will speak to Virginia reporters at 11:00 am ET. A Warner spokeswoman declined to comment. [CHUCK TODD]

Romney Warms Hearts Of Conservative Establishment

If Woody Allen was right, and "80 percent of success is showing up," then MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) did himself a big favor by appearing last night at National Review Online's 10th Anniversary party in Washington. Romney was the only '08 contender to woo the hundreds of prominent conservatives who packed the dining room of Charlie Palmer's steakhouse. He was also the only non-National Review staffer who got a turn at the mic.

In very brief remarks, Romney paid tribute to the venerable magazine's internet site, describing it as a welcome tonic for people like him whose hearts are in red America but whose homes are in blue. Boston, the Bay State governor explained, has two types of media outlets: the "Kennedy apologists" and "the liberals." The line was good enough for a few chuckles, but it was his mere presence that said it all; that and the fact that two of the evening's sponsors had the word "Mitt" in their titles. Both the Ann D. and Mitt Romney Foundation and "Evangelicals for Mitt" helped underwrite the shindig -- a fact that was pointed out by NR editor Rich Lowry in his remarks.

As Romney stuck around after speaking to shake hands and take pictures with an audience that included such bold-faced names as Krauthammer, Blankley, Comstock, Matalin, Libby (!) and Bonjean, the buzz was almost audible: McCain alternative.

Hotline After Dark -- Breaking News Overtakes Politics

TV was in breaking news mode last night, covering the NY plane crash in a way that only a story taking place in NY (vs. any other city in the world) will get covered.

Gov. George Pataki (R-NY): "There is now virtual certainty that this was nothing but a tragic accident, there was no link to terror."

More: "We had instantaneous communication, the city, the state, the federal officials. I talked to Secretary Chertoff a number of times, and the mayor. And whether it was the firefighters responding to the fire in the building or homeland security scrambling jets over New York, we have to say that there is a far better coordinated response than existed on September 11" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/11).

But there was some talk on Pres. Bush's presser:

CNN's Henry: "Just four weeks before the midterm elections, the president became the prognosticator in chief" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 10/11).

FNC's Baier: "In an hour-long news conference where the situation with North Korea dominated the questioning, President Bush called for stiff sanctions against the communist north promising serious diplomatic repercussions from a united international community" ("Special Report," 10/11).

NBC's Gregory: "On all these tough issues, the president's press conference -- they're becoming more frequent these days -- is another piece of evidence that the president himself wants to try to drive the debate in the final weeks of this midterm campaign" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/11).

Newsweek's Wolffe, asked about Bush accidentially calling Nancy Pelosi leader of the House: "Maybe it's wishful thinking. You know, he has always liked strong women in his life. You know, I think you can read too much into this. But you know, Condi Rice, Karen Hughes, his mother. I mean, maybe he likes Nancy Pelosi more than we think" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 10/11).

BY THE BOOK

And MSNBC's Olbermann had a preview of a new book from the former No. 2 man in Pres. Bush's Office of Faith-Based Initiatives. David Kuo's "Tempting Faith" will be out 10/16.

Olbermann: "Kuo cites one example after another of a White House that repeatedly uses Evangelical Christians for their votes while consistently giving them nothing in return."

More Olbermann: "According to Kuo, Karl Rove's office referred to Evangelical leaders as the 'nuts.' Kuo says, 'National Christian leaders received hugs and smiles in person and then were dismissed behind their backs and described as ridiculous, out of control and just plain goofy.' So, how does the Bush White House keep the 'nuts' turning out at the polls? One way, regular conference calls with groups lead by Pat Robertson, James Dobson, Ted Haggard, and radio hosts like Michael Reagan. ... They did get some things from the Bush White House, like the National Day of Prayer. ... Or 'Little trinkets like cufflinks or pens or pads of paper were passed out like business cards. Christian leaders could give them to their congregations or donors or friends to show just how influential they were.'"

Olbermann: "When cufflinks were not enough, the White House played the Jesus card, reminding Christian leaders that 'The knew the president's faith' and begging for patience. ... The office was literally a taxpayer funded part of the Republican
campaign machinery. In 2002 Kuo says, 'The office decided to hold roundtable events for threatened incumbents with faith and community leaders. Using the aura of our White House power to get a diverse group of faith and community leaders to a 'nonpartisan' event discussing how best to help poor people in their area.'"

More: "White House Political Affairs Director Ken Mehlman, 'Loved the idea and gave us our marching orders. There were 20 targets.' Including Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, and John Shimkus in Illinois. Mehlman devised a cover-up for the operation. He told Kuo, 'It can't come from the campaigns, that would make it look too political. It needs to come from the congressional offices. We'll take care of that by having our guys call the office to request the visit'" ("Countdown," 10/11).[EMILY GOODIN]

On The Download: Santorum On MTV

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

With less than a month left before E-Day, Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign went live with www.RSiteonline.com, an alternative site aimed at the under age 35 voting group with corresponding ads on MTV. The flash site boasts pseudo-news segments featuring two Pennsylvania College Republicans discussing opponent "Bobby Casey Jr's" track record on issues such as attendance and immigration. Shorter versions of the spots will appear as spots on MTV.

It's an interesting strategy to try to close the loop between YouTube and the Boob Tube crowds. Total communication integration results in a sum greater than its parts because it drives more traffic to the Web site. But in terms of actually getting young voters to the polls, it's a tough call for advertising on MTV. Plus the average age of the station's voters is just over 21, and while known for being politically active, the youngins' are completely unreliable at the polls. Nevertheless, it's the first effort to reach the YouTube generation on multiple media fronts. [SHIRA R. TOEPLITZ]

Continue reading "On The Download: Santorum On MTV" »

Today on Hotline TV: Not-Meg

We stump the CW that Connecticut is essential to Democratic efforts to retake the House, and we'll tell you more races you just don't have to pay attention to.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show

On The Trail: Forget October Surprises

In the two weeks since the Foley scandal unfolded, I've noticed an interesting pattern in key races: Republicans seeing the biggest drops in support are those who didn't think they were in big trouble three months ago. Now they have little framework with which to define themselves or their opponents in this awful climate.

The most embattled Republicans, many of whom we identified 18 months ago, seem to be weathering "Hurricane Mark" better than expected. The reason: Incumbents in places like Connecticut, Missouri or Pennsylvania have been preparing for what they feared would be a rough 2006 for nearly 18 months.

What this proves is that campaigns are rarely won or lost in October; the decisive moment happens much earlier in the cycle.

Continue Reading Chuck Todd's On The Trail

The Big Four: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Off Message?: Rep. Chris Shays (R) "hit back" after Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) visited CT 04 on behalf of Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell . (D) Shays alluded to Kennedy's past, saying House Speaker Dennis Hastert "didn't go over a bridge and leave a young person in the water, and then have a press conference the next day." What's more, "Hastert didn't kill anybody." Farrell "was incredulous" over Shays' comments, saying her "jaw dropped" (Hartford Courant).

2. Two Polls, Two Different Donnelly Leads: A new DCCC poll in IN 02 shows '04 nominee Joe Donnelly (D) leading Rep. Chris Chocola (R) 52-36. And Chocola’s own internal poll shows him losing ground – he’s trailing 45-44%

3. His Way Or The High Way -- This Is Coming From Davis: In NY 26, '04 nominee/businessman Jack Davis (D) has said politics is "a business. And if you're not a team player and not willing to listen to... the owner of a team -- which is me -- then it's not going to work." Yet as he faces Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), Davis is having to "balance his 'my way or the highway ' philosophy" against Dem leaders "who view him as key" to taking the House.

Erie Co. Dem chair Leonard Lenihan said despite Dems who ask whether he's "ignoring" political vets or gaining voters "fed up" with career politicians, Jack's "style is to be independent of politics, and nothing is going to change that," yet he said he noted Davis may want to get as much "good advice as he can." Davis: "I expect perfection and I expect it my way" (Buffalo News).

4. Right Back Atcha: In IN 09, Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) launched a new TV ad in response to ex-Rep. Baron Hill's (D)'s Foley ad, saying Hill's ad "blaming" him "for the Mark Foley mess" is "the biggest lie yet." What's more, he says "Baron doesn't want to talk about his work at a lobbying firm or his votes in Congress," adding Baron "voted to allow flag burning...abortion...against traditional marriage."

AP Hits Reid On Land Sale

Senate Min. Leader Harry Reid "collected a $1.1 million windfall" on a land sale, "even though he hadn't personally owned the property for three years," per the AP.

The complex dealings allowed Reid to transfer ownership, legal liability and some tax consequences to Brown's company without public knowledge, but still collect a seven-figure payoff nearly three years later.

Reid hung up the phone when questioned about the deal during an AP interview last week.

The senator's aides said no money changed hands in 2001 and that Reid instead got an ownership stake in Brown's company equal to the value of his land. Reid continued to pay taxes on the land and didn't disclose the deal because he considered it a "technical transfer," they said.

They also said they have no documents proving Reid's stake in the company because it was an informal understanding between friends.

Today's Blogometer

Despite exhortation from DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas not to start celebrating victory quite yet, MyDD's Chris Bowers has two lengthy posts up focused like a laser on framing the meaning of the Dems anticipated takeover of Congress. Bowers two main points: 1) the Dems are succeeding by moving to the left, not to the center; 2) Dem victory is due to the strength of the netroots, not recent GOP mistakes (like Foley). Will these frames get picked up? Will Dems move visibly left when they take power? Or is it still too early to even be asking these questions?

Read the full Today's Blogometer

A Glimpse Behind The Curtain: Geroge Allen Needs Letters

Here's a e-mail we recieved from a well-known and well-connected Virginia supporter of Sen. George Allen's. It seems that the Allen campaign is frustrated that The Filter-- the press filter -- is too finely grained to allow pro-Allen letters to the editor to get through.

The solution: send more letters to the editor. Recruit activists to send letters to the editor(s) across the state. Generate "grassroots enthusiasm" from the top of the blades of grass.

Caveat: this dilemma is not confined to Allen's campaign, and the attempt to solve it is common practice for GOPers and Dems everywhere. But it's a fun peak behind the curtains nonetheless.

The George Allen for U.S. Senate Campaign is in desperate need of "Letters to the Editor" to combat the aggressive grassroots campaign of his opponent in the closing days of this election. I have agreed to turn over 50 unsigned letters to the editor that can be used by the campaign to strategically place in various local, regional and statewide papers in the next 5 days. The campaign will find people to sign your letter. You just have to write it.

Continue reading "A Glimpse Behind The Curtain: Geroge Allen Needs Letters" »

Bubble Burster: McCain's Still Campaigning For Reynolds

Sen. John McCain still plans to campaign for Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY). He'll attend an open-press rally in Rochester on 10/20.

He did cancel his planned attendance at a rally and dinner later that day in a different city -- one that arguably would have received far less press coverage than the rally McCain WILL ATTEND.

Consider: the demand for McCain to appear on behalf of House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates jumped after the Foley scandal; the NRCC, in particularly, wants him, basically, to campaign everywhere. In order to accommodate the requests, McCain's schedulers decided that it wouldn't be profitable to spend five more hours in New York State when the relative benefit to Reynolds would be negligible. Reynolds still gets his afternoon rally with McCain.

BTW: Sen. Hillary Clinton will be in Rochester that same day, but that's neither here nor there.

www.DoesThisSpoofSiteReallyWork.com

Spoof sites are fun, cheap to produce, and informative. But do they move votes?

NJ.com's McPike and Ottenhoff write that

The kind of messaging found on these sites seems directed primarily toward the press. DSCC spokesman Phil Singer explained that his organization wants "the mainstream media to pick up on the points we're making" on the spoof sites. To that end, they function as a clearinghouse for opposition research with a jocular kick. Singer's counterpart at the National Republican Senatorial Campaign, spokesman Dan Ronayne, said he also likes to refer journalists to the sites for information.

The Big Three: Hot Senate Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. Even Lamont's Beating Schlesinger Among GOPers: A new independent CT poll, Cable co. exec Ned Lamont's (D) trailing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) by 7 points but leading ex-Derby Mayor Alan Schlesinger (R): 39-3.

2. Mixing The Campaign Soundtrack: State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (R) launched a new TV ad attacking Sen. Bob Menendez (D). The ad references the taped phone call from '99, in which Menendez aide/Atty Donald Scarinci allegedly asked a doctor to share his contracts with Menendez.

In Kean's ad, the announcer says, "listen carefully" to Menendez's "top lieutenant pressuring a doctor in a Menendez kick-back scheme." Menendez's lieutenant: "the only reason" he "stuck" his nose "in this Ruiz thing is because Menendez asked me to do it." The announcer concludes: "Kick-back schemes. Federal crime probes. That's what you get with" Menendez.

3. Debate Round Two: Up Close And Personal: During their second TV debate in TN, aside from addressing the War in Iraq and the fence in Mexico, ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) asked why Rep. Harold Ford Jr.'s (D-09) father became a lobbyist "within 60 days" after Ford joined the House Financial Services Cmte. in '02.

Corker: "Why was it... his dad became the registered lobbyist for Fannie Mae to lobby you in Washington on that committee?" Ford's response: "dad nor any member of my family has ever lobbied me." Ford said of Corker: "I didn't think he could sink any further in the gutter than he already has in the campaign."

Meanwhile, when Corker "voiced support" for gov't plans to build a fence along the Mexican border, Ford alleged that Corker hired four illegal aliens at a Memphis work site. Ford: "I never hired an illegal alien. He has; four of them" (Chattanooga Times Free Press).

Justice Sunday With The Romneys

From the Family Research Council:

Family Research Council is pleased to announce that Ann Romney, the First Lady of Massachusetts, will be joining the line-up of distinguished speakers at a live nationwide simulcast, Liberty Sunday: Defending Our First Freedom. The event will broadcast on Oct. 15 from Tremont Temple Baptist Church in Boston, Mass. Mrs. Romney will also introduce a video presentation by her husband, Rep. Mitt Romney, which will air during the event.

This nationwide event comes from Boston in response to the legal battles over marriage taking place in Massachusetts. These battles are destined to have an impact not only on marriage, but also on the free speech and freedom of religion rights of all citizens. Prior to the event at a 3 p.m. press conference, FRC President Tony Perkins will reveal details of a special First Amendment Freedoms Watch Project.

Bush "Diplomacy Hasn't Run Its Course"

Bush, in his opening statement: "I want to remind our fellow citizens good tax policy has a lot to keep the economy strong. We'll continue to urge the Congress to make the tax cuts permanent."

More Bush: "The United States is working to confirm North Korea's claim, but this claim itself constitutes a threat to international peace and stability." The US "is working with the United Nations Security Council to ensure there are serious reprocussions for the regime in Pyongyang. With its actions this week, North Korea has once again chosen to reject the prospects for a better future offered by the six parties' joint statement."

"The United States remains committed to diplomacy. But the United States reserves all options to defend our friends and our interests in the region." The US will "increase defense cooperation" with "our allies," including cooperation on ballistic missile defense.

In Iraq, "Attacks and casulaties have risen during the Ramadan period. A rise in violence has occured during every Radamdan period over the past three years." Also, violence has increased "because our forces are confronting" an illegal militia in Baghdad. "We're on the move. We're taking action. We're helping this young democracy succeed."

Continue reading "Bush "Diplomacy Hasn't Run Its Course"" »

Bush's News Conference: Opening Statement Iraq, North Korea and Taxes

From Pres. Bush's opening statement:

"I want to remind our fellow citizens good tax policy has a lot to keep the economy strong. We'll continue to urge the Congress to make the tax cuts permanent."

"The United States is working to confirm North Korea's claim, but this claim itself constitutes a threat to international peace and stability." The US "is working with the United Nations Security Council to ensure there are serious reprocussions for the regime in Pyongyang. With its actions this week, North Korea has once again chosen to reject the prospects for a better future offered by the six parties' joint statement."

"The United States remains committed to diplomacy. But the United States reserves all options to defend our friends and our interests in the region." The US will "increase defense cooperation" with "our allies," including cooperation on ballistic missile defense.

In Iraq, "Attacks and casulaties have risen during the Ramadan period. A rise in violence has occured during every Radamdan period over the past three years." Also, violence has increased "because our forces are confronting" an illegal militia in Baghdad. "We're on the move. We're taking action. We're helping this young democracy succeed."

Bush cited political progress in Iraq. "Iraq's Democratic government is four months old, yet in the face of terrorist threats and sectarian violence, Iraq's new leaders are starting to make tough choices. As they make these tough choices, we will stand with them. ... I fully understand American people are seeing unspeakable violence on the their TV screens. ... The stakes are high. As a matter of fact, they couldn't be higher. If we were to abandon that country.... terrorists would take control of Iraq and establish a new safe haven from which to launch attacks on America. As a person working to secure this country, I take the words of the enemy very seriously as so should American people. We can't tolerate a new terrorist state in the heart of the Middle East."

The Daily Troika: '08 Buzz

SC GOPers and Dem leaders "have agreed to swap voting roles" to prevent people from "casting ballots in both primaries." SC Dem chair Joe Erwin: "I don't want people who have voted in their primary attempting to vote in ours." But it might be difficult to stop; the state election commission views the presidential primaries as straw polls, not real elections. About 25% of SC primary voters say they are independents. Swapping lists was the only way to prevent cross-overs. SC GOP chair Katon Dawson: "There was no other way to be able to stop anybody from crossing over." The Dem primary is tenatively scheduled for 1/29; the GOP primary will likely be held on 2/5, but "the date could be moved earlier" (Davenport, AP, 10/10).

Just in time for the whispering tour: Simon and Schuster announced yesterday that it'll publish a 10th anniversary version of It Takes A Village in December. Sen. Hillary Clinton wrote a new introduction. From the news release: "There are currently 700,000 copies of the book in print. In it, Senator Clinton chronicles her 30-year journey -- to help make our society into the kind of village that enables children to become able, caring, resilient adults."

Sen. John McCain's PAC rolled out more legislative endorsements in AL: They are: Reps "Cam Ward (Bibb and Shelby Counties), Warren Beck (Geneva and Houston Counties), Greg Canfield (Jefferson and Shelby County), Spencer Collier (Mobile County), Randy Davis (Baldwin and Mobile Counties), Mac Gipson (Autauga and Elmore Counties), Lynn Greer (Lauderdale County), Todd Greeson (DeKalb County), Mike Hill (Shelby County), Bobby Humphryes (Jefferson County), Jim McClendon (Shelby and St. Clair Counties), Albert Morton (Jeffersron), Jeremy Oden (Blount, Cullman and Morgan Counties), Allen Treadaway (Jefferson County), Jack Williams (Jefferson County), Nick Williams (Choctaw, Clarke and Washington Counties), Randy Wood (Calhoun and St. Clair Counties) and Mary Sue McClurken (Jefferson and Shelby Counties).

Nancy French, co-proprietor of Evangelicals for Mitt, has a new book out.

The power of fear: Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani "made a late entrance" at the campaign event for IL-08 hopeful Dave McSweeny (R), "who had been in the middle of a mini-speech about abortion." Just as McSweeney said, "I am pro-life; I have been clear on that since the beginning," he "spotted" Giuliani "walking through the doors and immediately switched tack." McSweeney: "Remember on Sept. 11th, nineteen terrorists killed 3,000 Americans.”

Hotline's Barbs and Jabs: Debate Highlights Of The Week

Our weekly '06 debate highlight reel -- Hotline's Barbs and Jabs -- is now available on nationaljournal.com:
http://video.nationaljournal.com/barbs.ram

The must-see moments from the TX governor debate, where things got downright Kinky, from a debate in CT 04 between Diane Farrell and Rep. Chris Shays, and from the Arnold / Angelides slug fest in CA.

Hotline After Dark -- Rice Is Dishin' It At Clinton

North Korea was still the main topic of news last night. Sec/State Condoleezza Rice made the TV rounds:

Rice: "I think you will see the Chinese re-evaluated this. I don't know how far they will go, but the North Koreans have certainly put at risk their most important assistance from their most important partner."

On talks: "One would have to ask why it is that the North Koreans are so insistent on bilateral talks. They have had plenty of chances to talk to us. In fact, they have talked to us bilaterally within the context of the six-party talks" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/10).

More Rice: "We have been through bilateral talks with the North Koreans in the 1994 Agreed Framework, it didn't hold. They cheated."

CNN's Blitzer: "That was a mistake, the Clinton administration strategy?"

Rice: "No. I will not blame anyone for trying. I just know that the 1994 agreement, of course, didn't hold. The North Koreans cheated."

Blitzer: "Is there any evidence that what the Clinton administration did helped North Korea build these bombs?"

Rice: "Oh, I think North Korea has been persistent and has been consistent in pursuing this nuclear weapons program for decades. Now, it is going to have to be fought. And the international community is speaking with one voice very loudly, because the North Koreans crossed an important line when they proclaimed that they had conducted a nuclear test."

More Rice: "Let me just remind you, we tried direct dialogue. The United States tried direct dialogue with the North Koreans in the '90s, and that resulted in the North Koreans signing onto agreements that then didn't keep. And the United States didn't have the force of others like China and South Korea to say to the North Koreans, 'That is an agreement that you should have kept.'"

Blitzer: "So Bill Clinton's to blame?"

Rice: "No. Wolf, you keep saying that. And I told you that, at the time, it might have made perfectly good sense to try direct talks" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/10).

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) was on "Hannity & Colmes":

McCain: "I wasn't doing anything but responding to attacks that were made on the president of the United States, accusing him of being responsible for this international crisis of the utmost seriousness that we're in now. Incredibly, as the president is trying to unite the nation and the world to impose sanctions against the rogue state of North Korea, the Democrats and Mrs. Clinton attacked the president of the United States and accused him of being irresponsible, when the fact is that it is a failure of the Clinton administration policies that I was heavily involved in at the time that have caused us to be in the situation we're in today."

More: "I felt that I should react to those, because in 1993 and 1994 I spoke against this framework agreement. I wrote against it; I debated the State Department guy about it; and I knew, because it was not transparent and it was not enforceable, that it would fail" (FNC, 10/10).

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on the Clinton/McCain argument: "We shouldn't concentrate on the blame game. The reality is, had we not had the agreed framework with North Korea on nuclear weapons, they would maybe have 50 nuclear weapons today. For eight years they didn't enrich uranium. But, you know, this finger-pointing is just absurd. Let's focus on a major crisis which is occurring in the Korean Peninsula. They're detonating nuclear weapons. They're shooting missiles. And there's no diplomacy. You cannot have a successful effort without a carrot- and-stick policy" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/10).

AND HERE'S YOUR FOLEY UPDATE

NBC's Viqueira: "The Republicans up here on the House can't figure out why Denny Hastert called that press conference with that unintentional metaphor of posing before a graveyard" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/10).

FNC's Garrett: "With a cemetery visible behind him, House Speaker Dennis Hastert tried again to quell the Mark Foley controversy, one Democrats hope will sound the death knell for GOP control of Congress" ("Special Report," 10/10).

MSNBC's Scarborough: "Are comics crushing the GOP's chances this fall? Thanks to late night stars like Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert and David Letterman, the left may get the last laugh in November 2006. Will the punchline be a Democratic Congress? Well, you know, Republicans needed this Mark Foley scandal like Paris Hilton needed another case of herpes" ("Scarborough Country," 10/10).

NED'S LAMENT

CT SEN candidate Ned Lamont (D) was on "Hardball":

Asked if as a SEN he would support military action in Iran: "Look, always the military option is on the table."

More: "This president is at fault because we are not in direct diplomacy with Iran. We're not in direct diplomacy with Syria. When that happens, we don't isolate those countries, we isolate the United States of America. And the other thing I was going to say is our human intelligence is so failing us at this point. We don't know the basics of what's going on in Iran. We don't know the basics of what's going on in North Korea, and we now know in hindsight how little we knew about Iraq. So these are the things we have to get right first" (MSNBC, 10/10).[EMILY GOODIN]

Talk About A Free Media Hit

Want to know which races the RGA considers among the hottest in the country? Look no further than an email the group sent out -- signed by a fella named "Mitt Romney" -- yesterday. Romney and Co. are offering "flight, lodging and a per diem" for any volunteers willing to put the 72-Hour program to work in one of six states: Iowa, Maine, Oregon, Illinois, Arkansas, and Michigan.

While the RGA notes in the letter that they are focusing on these states in particular because their "sister committees" aren't, the fallout of what is effectively "naming names" has been predictable. Under a headline of "GOP Group Bypasses Colorado," the Rocky Mountain News reports on the missive and gets the requisite professor to say that it means that DC Republicans are writing off Rep. Bob Beauprez (R). Not surprisingly in this internets era, PA Gov. Ed Rendell's (D) campaign saw the Rocky story and issued their own release pointing out that the Keystone State was "noticeably absent" from the list.

RGA chair Phil Musser was quick to point out that there are many races not listed because of either significant other national party investment or restrictive campaign finance laws. Places like Wisconsin, Nevada and Maryland may not have been singled out, Musser said, but that doesn't mean the committee isn't investing heavily in those states.

Be that as it may, does every Democratic governor and Democratic gubernatorial candidate beyond these six states now seize on this volunteer-seeking blast email to throw a wet blanket on their GOP rival?

The RGA's Dem counterparts, by the way, are playing it safe. Asked which particular races they would be seeking volunteers for, a DGA official quipped that they "want everyone to help everywhere."
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

HRH Extra: Whack-A-Mole

Competitive races are popping up in some very surprising places.

The NRCC just began direct-mail hits against Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and CA 50's Francine Busby (remember her?). Republicans are phone banking against Charlie Brown (CA 04) and have spent nearly $500K against Jerry McNerney (CA 11) . These were hardly top targets even one month ago.

A new Mason-Dixon poll demonstrates how races are popping up in unusual territory. In CO 05, which has never elected a Democrat, Jay Fawcett (D) is tied with state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) at 37%.

But in the races that the NRCC anticipated as top targets (PA/CT/NM 01), GOPers are looking in fighting shape. The attack ads and mailers against Democrats have had an effect. Still, there's an ever-expanding field on which they haven't yet played.

For the next 28 days, the NRCC will have to play Whack-A-Mole -- shoring up these newly vulnerable seats. But with plenty of top-tier Republican incumbents still needing cash, that may be an increasingly tough task. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Hitting The Leader: '04 nominee/businessman Jack Davis (D) is up with a new TV ad in NY 26 attacking NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds (R-NY). The ad reminds viewers Reynolds "knew the truth for months" about ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R) and yet took $100K, which Foley "gave over" to "Reynolds' political" cmte. Meanwhile, "Reynolds says he did nothing wrong. But when it comes to protecting kids," the announcer asks, "isn't it wrong to do nothing?"

2. Who's More Toxic: Sherwood or Hastert?: Speaker Dennis Hastert and Reynolds "have backed off" a PA 10 fundraiser for" Rep. Don Sherwood (R-PA), who "admitted to an extramarrital affair." While the Reynolds camp said Reynolds "cancelled because of a scheduling conflict," Sherwood spokesperson Jack O'Donnell said "pressure" from prof./naval reserve officer Chris Carney (D) "was also a factor."

3. Is O'Donnell Closing The Gap?: In a new CO 07 Mason-Dixon poll, CO Higher Education Commis. Chair Rick O'Donnell's (R) trailing ex-state Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D) by 6 points.

Meanwhile, in a new CO 05 Mason-Dixon poll, ex-USAF officer Jay Fawcett (D) and state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) are tied 37-37.

4. Getting Even Nastier: In NY 20, Atty Kirsten Gillibrand (D) isn't backing off Rep. John Sweeney (R). In a letter to Sweeney this a.m., Gillibrand asks that he "release the full police reports relating" to his "arrests and drinking and driving incident." She mentions his DWIs from 1977 and 1978, noting he was caught in '77 "for pulling a fire alarm." What's more, she reminds him of his "serious car accident after drinking in a bar" in '01.

Gilibrand concludes, "Sadly, given the fact that you tried to cover up your" '01 "drinking and driving accident, there is every reason for voters to believe that you may be hiding other incidents from them." What's more, she asks that he "release any and all records related to other run-ins with the law" he "may be hiding from voters."

5. Computer Crash and Burn: In AZ 08, ex-State Rep. Randy Graf's (R) camp asked his volunteers "to re-register with the" camp, as "computer problems" made "a large portion" of their volunteer database "inaccessible." In a newsletter, Graf's camp said it is "extremely apologetic for the inconvenience" and said "the problem has been corrected."

Today on Hotline TV: Taking The Initiative

We look at just a few of the more than 200 ballot initiatives around the country. Check out the ones you need to pay attention to -- or watch out for. (Hint: Everybody move to Phoenix)

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Clinton's Office Responds To McCain

Philippe Reines, Sen. Hillary Clinton's spokesman, responds to McCain:

A missile shield alone cannot protect us from the Bush-Cheney Administration’s incompetence in their approach to Iraq, Iran and North Korea, and it is unfortunate that Republicans such as John McCain continue to blindly defend their failed policies for partisan gain rather than exercise true leadership. Five years after 9/11, President Bush has allowed the ‘Axis of Evil’ to spin out of control. Our Iraq policy is a failure. Iran is going nuclear and North Korea is testing nuclear weapons. President Bush’s foreign policy failures have made America less safe, not more so, and it is time for a new direction. Senator Clinton supports a National Missile Defense System that has been tested and actually works. She supports an approach that protects us from the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, as the Clinton Administration successfully did for eight years.

The Big Three: Hot Senate Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. Dems Drop A Cool Million: In VA, he DSCC's spending nearly $1M in TV ads for ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). A clip from the first ad may imply the DSCC's attacking Allen for the "macaca" incident. ANNCR: "George Allen. Scandals. Slurs and Insults. Now after Allen's dark side is exposed he wants the race to be 'decided on issues.'"

2. Film From The Cutting Room Floor: Sen. Bob Menendez's (D) camp in NJ has launched a "guerilla video" on the Internet, in which Military Families Speak Out's Jo Ann Sohl confronts State Sen. Tom Kean Jr (R) after a Kean-Mendendez debate "with pointed questions about the mounting carnage" from Iraq. In the video, Sohl approaches Kean, while "Kean turns and walks away."

Meanwhile, Kean spokesperson Jill Hazelbaker said it was "inappropriate" for Menendez's camp to "smuggle" Sohl after a debate "reserved for members of the press and campaign staff." The segment airs on YouTube. (Newsday).

3. GOP Still Looking To Play Here?: In Southfield, MI, en. John McCain (R-AZ) will appear with Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) -- "a sign of the GOP's continued hopes for the race." Yet "some analysts believe Bouchard has little time to close the gap or risk losing financial backing" from nat'l GOPers, "who face tough races across the country."

Still, Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy "said it's too early to count Bouchard out." A "weak economy is expected to work against" Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) (Detroit News).

Show 'Em You're A Tiger

How do you keep the attention of an electorate focused on baseball?

Look no further than Michigan, where Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and Dick DeVos (R) use the Detroit Tigers' Comerica Field to make competing arguments about who is responsible for job losses in the state.

DeVos lobbed the first pitch last week with this ad. It argues that Granholm's support for business taxes and lackluster effort to fight for jobs has caused a loss of jobs that could "fill Detroit's ballpark. Twice." In a response ad released Monday, Granholm's campaign notes the DeVos spot, before turning the argument against him. The narrator says that Bush administration policies supported by DeVos have caused enough job losses to "fill not one, not two, not three, but four stadiums." And to drive the point home, it ends with one last baseball analogy: "It's time to tell Dick DeVos his game is over."

DeVos and Granholm are scheduled to debate tonight, though the meeting will likely be overshadowed by -- you guessed it -- the Tigers, who open the American League Championship Series in Oakland. It's a safe bet that these ads, if aired during the game, will attract more eyeballs.

McCain Challenges Clinton On North Korea

In his first direct challenge to the Democrat he expects to face in the 2008 presidential race, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) today alleged that Sen. Hillary Clinton and Democrats fail to recognize the gathering threat posed by North Korea in voting to block a national missile defense program and by supporting an approach to Asian diplomacy that McCain believes is a proven failure. McCain scheduled a press conference late this morning in Michigan, where he is campaigning for Senate candidate Mike Bouchard, to draw a bright line between himself and Clinton on national security, according to an adviser.

In doing so, McCain tethered himself to the Bush administration's foreign policy initiatives on the Korean peninsula, which are supported by a wide range of conservatives, including realists and hawks. McCain's negotiations with the administration over detainee interrogation legislation strained his relationship with many of his foreign policy allies, including Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol. Ahead of the 2006 election, an adviser said he hopes to heighten the contrasts between policies favored by Democrats and those propounded by Pres. Bush.

McCain, long an opponent of Pres. Bill Clinton's framework approach to North Korea, endorsed Bush's call for tough financial and trade sanctions against the country and for a full, enforceable embargo on arms. The United Nations, McCain said, has the right to interdict and inspect all cargo entering and departing North Korean waters. McCain will urge the UN and US policy markers to punish the North Koreans' "bad behavior." North Korea, McCain said, has received billions in energy assistance through the "framework agreement" negotiated by the Clinton administration in '93 but managed to divert resources to secretly enrich uranium without detection.

"I would remind Sen Clinton and other Democrats critical of the Bush Administration's policies that the framework agreement her husband's administration negotiated was a failure," McCain said.

An adviser to Hillary Clinton, who provided background information on the condition of anonymity, said that Clinton believes the 1993 agreement was largely a success in that it deterred North Korea from reprocessing plutonium. Clinton credits direct diplomacy by members of the administration, who publicly rebuked and privately threatened North Korea in 1994. Through the end of the Clinton administration, North Korea refrained from plutonium enrichment. In this account, it was only when Pres. Bush rejected the framework agreement that North Korea secretly began to reprocess plutonium, which eventually culminated in this weekend's test. Clinton acknowledges that the national security apparatus failed to effectively police North Korea's hidden efforts to reprocess uranium in the 1990s but has concluded that the framework agreement generally contained the threat. [MARC AMBINDER]

Continue reading "McCain Challenges Clinton On North Korea" »

Hotline After Dark -- We Be Kim Jong Il'in

North Korea was in the news last night but a few reporters managed to tie it to Mark Foley.

MSNBC's Shuster: "The Republican Party usually benefits when foreign policy security issues take center stage. Today, House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Majority Leader John Boehner, under fire in the Foley page scandal, were quick to issue statements about standing with President Bush on the international community to isolate North Korea" ("Hardball," 10/9).

Columnist Charles Krauthammer: "Clearly this is Karl Rove at work again. First he gets oil prices dropped by a phone call to the oil companies and then gets North Korea to explode a bomb as a way to get the Foley affair off the front pages. The man is a genius" ("Special Report," FNC, 10/9).

And Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) got some TV time to talk about it:

Richardson: "I'm really worried about it because I believe that they have hunkered down. They feel that diplomacy is not working. ... It's another way, also, to get the attention of the international community. They have felt, I believe, that there's too much attention on the Middle East, on Iraq" ("AC 360," CNN, 10/9).

More Richardson: "Now the time has come to, I believe, offer a carrot-and-stick policy. The carrot is you dismantle your nuclear weapons, we don't attack you, and you get food and fuel from the six-party talks. That deal was negotiated about a year and a half ago. That's a good deal. Let's just move forward and get it done before this escalation continues, and an arms race in Asia continues, and North Korea has time to develop even more nuclear weapons. They probably have anywhere from three to six" ("Situation Room," CNN, 10/9).

MSNBC's Matthews: "Why do you think we went to Iraq? The real reason, not the sales pitch. Why do you think we went there?"

Richardson: "I believe the president wanted to avenge his father, who I think conducted a very sound foreign policy in Iraq, and the fact that it wasn't terminated, the war, that we didn't finish the job."

Matthews: "Well, do you think the impulse was Oedipal or filial?"

Richardson: "Those are words that I don't understand."

Matthews: "One is you are trying to knock your dad's block off because you want to beat him out. The other one is they tried to shoot my daddy, I'm going to get even. So which is it?"

Richardson: "I think it's more, I want to get even, I want to get even, we didn't finish the job."

On WH '08: "I haven't decided yet. I got to get through my re-election in New Mexico. I've got to elect a bunch of Democratic governors. By the way, we're going to get a majority. There are 22 of us. I bet you we get to 26 governorships. That's the unknown story there" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 10/9). [EMILY GOODIN]

Married Women And Iraq, Stupid

NYT/CBS/ABC/POST/CNN...

Three new polls.

Pres. Bush's approval ratings are solid, though improvable, with Republicans -- he gets the support of four out of every five. They're solid with evangelicals, who are as psyched to vote as elements of the Dem base are. They're fairly solid with men.

The problem area for Republicans: married women, a constituency won by Pres. Bush by more than 10 points in 2004.

Here's the situation today:

Married women are potential swing voters as well. They split their vote for president in 2000, but then favored Bush over John Kerry by 11 points in 2004, a critical factor in his re-election. They also favored Republicans for House in 2004 by a nine-point margin. In September, married women split between the two parties. But today they favor the Democrats, by 53 to 42 percent, a key feature of the Democratic lead. Focusing on the war in Iraq helps Democrats with married women. Nearly three in 10 of them now call it the single most important issue to their vote, up from two in 10 last month. It’s moved from a three-way tie (with economy and terrorism) to their single top issue. Married women with children divide evenly between the parties, just as they did last month. But that too is an improvement from 2004, when married moms were nine points more likely to vote Republican in their House district

The swingiest constituency may be white Catholics: "More of a swing group is white Catholics. Their preference for Democrats from an 18-point margin in August to a mere two-point margin in September a 22-point margin now. Where they end up is essential; along with independents, Catholics historically have been a decisive group in election outcomes."

So -- think about congressional races in NY, PA, OH and IN.

Here's a bit of good news for the 2008 Republican nominee: "And the public by a 12-point margin continues to say the Republican Party has stronger leaders – potentially a significant strength in an uncertain world, if that’s where voters were ultimately to focus."

Think North Korea helps focus the mind on threats to the security? The NYT/CBS poll shows that just 32 percent of Americans think Pres. Bush is handling foreign policy well. The same question, re: Iraq: Bush receives the approval of 30 percent of Americans. His terrorism number hovers the mid-forties, about where it was in May.

53 percent of Americans believe that the economy is "fairly strong," which is the highest number that question has polled since Feb. of '05. It appears as if improving economic perceptions aren't sufficient to drive up the president's ratings in total.

Check out this question:

Do you think that George W. Bush personally knew before September 11th, 2001 about intelligence reports that warned of possible terrorist attacks against the United States using airplanes, or not?

Date                 Personally knew        Did not know    DK/NA

5/19-20/02          41                             43                    16

10/5-8/06            57                             33                    11

Other facts from the CBS poll: 37% believe that homosexual relations between adults are morally wrong; in Dec. of '03, amid the Massachusetts and San Francisco gay marriage debates, 49% percent believed that gay relationships were wrong. A majority -- 54% -- believe that gays don't choose their sexual orientation.

Oh, and here's the CNN poll.

The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

1. A new Zogby poll shows Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY 26) trailing self-funding businessman Jack Davis (D) by 15 points. Among House GOPers, "probably no one has more to fear than" Reynolds, who "this weekend" started airing a 60-sec. ad "that strikes a defensive note." Reynolds, says in the ad: "Nobody's angrier and more disappointed than me that I didn't catch [Foley's] lies. Looking back, more should have been done and I'm sorry for that" (LA Times).

2. Hastert's Welcome In His Home State: At least in IL, Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) will attend a GOP fundraiser. Along with Pres. Bush, he'll visit state Sen. Peter Roskam (R) and investment banker David McSweeney (R).

Sun-Times' Novak writes "Hastert's presence will be an unwelcome distraction." A GOP aide: "We look on this as a Bush event, not a Hastert event" (Chicago Sun-Times).

3. Putting The Immigration Issue Aside, For Now: In AZ 08, Sen. John McCain (R) has endorsed Ex-state Rep. Randy Graf, which Graf's camp. said is a "significant step" toward "uniting moderates and conservatives." Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) has declined to endorse Graf but said McCain's endorsement's "certainly got to help" Graf appeal to moderates.

Yet while Graf called McCain "a shining example of public service," he said they have a "clear ideological difference" on illegal immigration. While McCain thinks illegal immigrants should be "allowed a path to citizenship," Graf disagrees (Arizona Daily Star).

4. It's Pat!: During a CO 07 debate with ex-state Sen. Ed Perlmutter (D), CO Higher Education Commis. Chair Rick O'Donnell(R) called longtime Dem lightning rod: ex-Rep. Patricia Schroeder (D) his "political hero." O'Donnell: "I disagree with her on most issues. But she fought hard... her door was always open...she always listened to her constituents and she was tireless."

Meanwhile, Perlmutter said O'Donnell is "trying to insulate himself politically from his troubled Republican party" and
"trying to become a Democrat" who "ought to just switch parties." (Rocky Mountain News).

5. Divorce -- Difficult But Necessary?: The DCCC launched a new ad attacking Rep. Rob Simmons (R). In the ad, a woman says: "We can't go on this way," while an announcer empathizes: "Breaking up isn't easy, but Washington has changed Rob Simmons. Instead of fighting for affordable health care, Simmons has taken nearly $200,000 from the pharmaceutical industry, and voted for George Bush's prescription drug plan." The ad concludes as the woman says, "I'm sorry -- it's over."

The Big Five: Hot Senate Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest Senate races.

Unraveling Debates

1. A Less-Than-Civil Debate : In NJ, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. "pointed fingers, traded disgusted looks and relentlessly attacked each other" in a debate aired 10/8. Both in "tone and substance," the hourlong debate was a "concise summary of the campaign." Kean and Menendez "interrupted each other constantly," with Kean "managing to turn every question" into an ethics debate, with Menendez "reciprocating by repeating" his claim that Kean was a Bush-GOPer (New York Times).

2. Trying To MO Down The Competition: MO's Sen. Jim Talent (R) and '04 GOV nominee/Aud. Claire McCaskill (D) sparred on "Meet the Press."
Talent, on the Foley scandal: "I think everybody needs to react the way you ought to react to this kind of a thing: a zero tolerance policy. ... And whoever was responsible is going to have to take the consequences... and if that's up to and including the speaker, and up to and including resignation."
McCaskill: "As a former prosecutor, I had to handle dozens and dozens of heartbreaking cases where children had been sexually abused... the response needs to be something other than, 'I better go tell the chairman of the Republican Campaign Committee.' ...This was about a cover-up."

3. Rage Against The Machine: And in TN, ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) and Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-09) "conducted a spirited and generally amicable debate" 10/7 but "sparred over Corker's assertion that" his opponent "is part of a 'Ford political machine.'"

Ford: "I don't know why Mr. Corker keeps bringing up my family... I love 'em and there's nothing you can say, Mr. Corker, that will bring any distance between my family and I ... if you come up with a recipe to pick family, say it. Otherwise be quiet" (Commercial Appeal

4. The Trusty Tax Issue Is Always A Favorite: Meanwhile, in VA, Sen. George Allen (R) says there are "some people in Washington" who "think you don't pay enough taxes, and they all support" ex-Navy Sec. Jim Webb (D). Webb "wants to raise taxes on married couples and families with children, costing the average Virginia family $2,000. ..would bring back the death tax, marriage penalty tax, and cut the child tax credit from $1000 to $500."

Webb's response ad says "Allen's lying again." ANNCR: Truth is Webb's plan cuts taxes for middle class families and veterans. In fact, only one Senate candidate voted to make college more expensive... allowed tax increases on your retirement savings... voted to give billions in handouts and tax cuts to oil and drug companies: George Allen. Is he really the one you want in the Senate?"

5 The Kind Of Ad Chafee Needed To Run?: In RI, Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) launched a new TV ad attacking ex-AG Sheldon Whitehouse's (D) assertion that " a vote for Chaffee is a vote for Bush." Instead, he reminds voters he was "the lone Republican vote against the war in Iraq...the deciding vote to protect clean air standards...for stem cell research" and the one who "stood up to the President on Iraq."

Today's Blogometer: On The Fence

Bloggers on the left and right tracked news of North Korea's announced nuclear detonation into the morning. The blame game aside, bloggers on both sides highly recommended Robert Kaplan's Atlantic Monthly piece on North Korea. Domestically, lefty bloggers are still in full Foley scandal mode, but Kausfiles has identified an issue that might depress GOP turnout even more. Kaus notes that Pres. Bush might pocket-veto the Secure Fence Act. Righty bloggers are not pleased by the possibility.

IMMIGRATION: Bush Signed The Bill Before He Vetoed It

Ever on top of the immigration debate Kausfiles notes that Pres. Bush has signed only the appropriations bill for the 700-mile border fence bill, not the Secure Fence Act, which actually requires money to be spent on the fence. Kaus writes: "Under the Constitution Bush has 10 days to sign the bill into law -- a deadline that would seem to be rapidly approaching." Righties were not pleased by the possibility:

Read Today's Blogometer.

Today on Hotline TV: Expanding The Foley Field

The Foley scandal seems to have widened the playing field a little. We'll take a look at some House races that weren't before, but are now fully in play. Poor, poor Tom Reynolds.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Pro-Life Group Answers Foes In South Dakota

With two Bush appointees now sitting on the Supreme Court, the effort in South Dakota to enact the strictest abortion law of the land may be just the beginning of a renewed push by activists to further constrict access to the procedure across the country. But will the strategy used by pro-choice advocates to defeat the ban backfire?

A Zogby survey commissioned by the pro-life Christian Defense Coalition shows that both camps are in a dead heat, with 44 percent supporting and 47 percent opposing the abortion ban. Those results show that the ban's backers have been able to significantly narrow a deficit seen in earlier measures.

A July Mason-Dixon poll showed that while voters opposed the ban by 8 points, they were inclined to support it by a much larger margin if exceptions for rape or incest were included in the bill. The law makes it a felony for a physician to perform an abortion unless the woman's life is in danger. In the event of rape or incest, abortion is still not allowed but victims are permitted to take the morning-after pill, or Plan B, which must be taken within 72 hours of conception.

Realizing how unpopular not allowing exceptions for rape, incest and health is, backers of the ban have been hammering on the Plan B clause. Pro-life group VoteYesForLife.com went on the air Thursday to make this case: "Victims of rape and incest can still access the best options for medical care, compassion and justice," an announcer says.

The ban was approved earlier this year by the state legislature and signed by Gov. Mike Rounds (R). But if VoteYesForLife.com successfully persuades voters that the option of Plan B is a reasonable exception, the pro-choice activists who maneuvered to place the law on November's ballot may find themselves in a worse position than if the law had simply been passed and challenged. If the ballot measure is approved next month and the law then winds up on the high court docket, the justices will also have to consider the will of South Dakota's voters.

Want to learn more? Hotline subscribers get full access to each day's Ad Spotlight, including video of campaign ads from this year's key House, Senate and gubernatorial races, plus an archive of 8500+ ads from the last ten years.

Gore's First Ad Since '00

From a press release:

Vice President Gore is appearing in his first ad since he last ran for office, for California’s Proposition 87, signifying the importance of the initiative. Prop 87’s new ad “Energy Security” will be unveiled statewide on Monday at noon. The ad explains our dangerous dependence on oil and the impact it has on our environment and our national security. By reducing our dependence on oil, Proposition 87 reduces our reliance on unstable foreign oil and air pollution that causes asthma, lung disease, cancer and global warming.

Foley News Update

The Next Leaders Of The Republican Party

About the straits House GOP finds themselves in:

Check out who they trotted out for the talk shows yesterday to carry the message: Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC), Jack Kingston (R-GA), and Adam Putnam (R-FL). (Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) and Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL) were also on the shows, but they didn't exactly carry the message.)

Not exactly a murderer’s row, but three of the party's most aggressive, most articulate, most conservative members. All Southern, all elected post '92.

Kingston, vice chair of the conference, wants to move up in the leadership. Putnam, the chair of the GOP policy committee and the second-youngest member of Congress, is whispered to have Speaker ambitions. And McHenry, the youngest turk, is a popular fundraiser and firebrand, willing to lob any and every partisan bomb across the aisle.

Importantly, all allowed themselves to parrot the same set of talking points: Democrats might be responsible for sitting on these e-mails, the GOP leadership acted responsibly, and, oh, Dems allowed Gerry Studds to remain in Congress until '96.

The Saturday Brunch

The Brunch is an exclusive Saturday political news digest and tip sheet from the editors of The Hotline.

WHAT'S BREWING

Dems Go On The Offense

This weekend, Democrats are now starting to go on the offensive, invoking Foley's behavior against Republicans. Check out this new radio ad for Mary Jo Kilroy, running against Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-OH 15). Note that it's only airing on Christian radio stations in the district.

ANNCR: What is going on in Washington? Our troops are sent to war without proper body armor, members of Congress like Deborah Pryce gave themselves $30,000 in pay raises while running up the largest deficit in American history.

Deborah Pryce's friend Mark Foley is caught using his position to take advantage of 16 year old pages. Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert looked the other way when he was warned of Foley's predatory behavior. Deborah Pryce is one of the top Republicans in Congress. No wonder Pryce refused to criticize Hastert for ignoring the Foley problem. No wonder she won't call for Foley to resign. Now Pryce is protecting Hastert, even though he protected a sex predator?.

Republican leaders were more concerned about protecting politicians than protecting teenagers.

Deborah Pryce is part of the problem in Congress.

It's time for change.

And child safety advocate Patty Wetterling (D), running in MN 06, won't be mincing words in her radio response to President Bush:

Foley sent obvious predatory signals, received loud and clear by members of congressional leadership, who swept them under the rug to protect their political power...We need to restore integrity to Congress, integrity that was further damaged by Congressional leadership’s silence. We need a new direction to restore the trust we’ve lost.

If It Weren't For Foley...

this would be big news; maybe even worthy of a story on the major broadcast evening newscasts. But not today. Amazing that we haven't got one breaking news alert from any news org. on a story that combines Karl Rove and Jack Abramoff and "resignation" in the same sentence.

This wasn't just a Friday 5pm news dump; this was a news dump under a 3 "f" umbrella: Five pm; Friday and Foley.

Hotline TV: The What Else Are We Going To Talk About Edition

So apparently ex-Rep. Mark Foley got in some trouble. We break down the latest on this page-turning scandal.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Thanks But No Thanks: House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) has cancelled two GOP fundraisers and been rejected from another. He'll no longer fundraise for candidate/state Sen. Joy Padgett (R) in OH 18 10/12. Hastert called her office to say "his travel plans had changed." Padgett "declined to say" whether she would've cancelled the event." (Examiner).

And in IN 09, Hastert cancelled a 10/10 event to support Rep. Mike Sodrel, who faces a "tight" re-election race with ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D). Sodrel: "I suspect he's busy with other issues right now" (AP/Fort Wayne News-Sentinel).

What's more, write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R) in TX 22 "has decided not to accept Hastert's offer" to visit and fundraise for her. Sekula Gibbs spokesperson Lisa Dimond said Sekula Gibbs wants to wait "until after the [Foley] investigation is complete." Yet on 10/1, Sekula Gibbs "proudly told supporters" she would travel to TX to "help her raise some badly needed funds" (Roll Call).

2. Dave's World: In WA 08, Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Kamb discovered Rep. Dave Reichert (R) "knew for weeks" in '96 that a sgt. under his command "was meddling in a felony arson investigation" but " kept him on the job." The sgt., Matt Bachmeier, "had burned down his own Renton home to collect insurance" and killed "an innocent man." Reicher said 10/5: "Any idea that I should have shared information with the jurisdiction investigating the case is wrong."

Yet the federal lawsuit "specifically alleged" that Reichert "knew" of Bachmeier's meddling "at least three weeks before Bachmeier killed" James Wren "as part of his attempted cover-up" (Seattle Post-Intelligencer).

3. Anti-Harris Fallout In Her Own District?: In a new Hamilton Beattie FL 13 poll, auto dealer Vern Buchanan's (R) trailing banker Christine Jennings (D) by 12 points.

4. And the DCCC is out with new ads attacking GOPers. In NY 24, the DCCC attacks State Sen. Raymond Meier (R), saying he's "picked up bad habits we don't need in Washington" and "taken special interest contributions in gifts from energy and tobacco." John Gard (R) 10/2. Full script, "Reckless." In WI 08, the DCCC says Assemb. John Gard (R) has given WI "more trouble" by voting"to increase Wisconsin state debt 1.3 billion," and "to raise Madison legislators' pay."

5. While child safety activist Patty Wetterling's (D) manager says she's "a very spiritual woman" in MN 06 but adds, "We have her all over the district now, so much so that she's not able to attend church," Sen. Michele Bachmann (R)is "the real deal when it comes to religion in politics" and "attends an evangelical megachurch" (Washington Post).

On The Download: Send It In A Letter

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

*Attention Staffers In The House Of Representatives: Don't think, just send. You have nothing to fear but your own typos. The House does not record electronically transmitted messages sent to other name@house.gov or outside e-mail addresses. And that's not a new development either. Apparently the House Administration Office has never kept tabs on e-mails or any other electronic communication, for example instant messages. So if an aide or house member, for example former Rep. Mark Foley, deleted an e-mail or instant message on a House computer, it's gone. Forever. Good luck with that one, FBI.

*ActBlue is going into the private software business. The two minds behind the Democratic online fundraising powerhouse, Benjamin Rahn and Matt DeBergalis, have incorporated "Auburn Quad," a private version of their software available to selected clients. Does that name sound familiar? It's actually a mix of the two founders' street names, but maybe you've seen that logo on Gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick's contributions page. Perhaps not coincidentally, the Massachusetts Democrat has raised more than a million dollars online -- a record in the state according to Patrick's campaign.

Boston-based ActBlue partners said they started the company out of necessity because Massachusetts law didn't allow them to set up an ActBlue account for Patrick. But now Auburn Quad is reaching out to new clients, and first on the list is Forward Together PAC. Mark Warner's PAC and ActBlue have been cozy in the past -- Warner even did a fundraiser for them a few months ago. The format is still in the works, but expect the similar personal fundraising page organization for Forward Together.

In related news, the Republican answer to ActBlue, ABC PAC's "Right Roots," is still raising. RNC Chair Ken Mehlman sent out a donation plea to the astoundingly large GOP e-mail list earlier this week. Since going live in August, Right Roots candidates have raised almost $200,000. Diane Irey, running against Rep. John Murtha in Pennsylvania, brought in the largest chunk at $20,000 [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Weekend Bytes:

*Apparently Foley wasn't the only government employee using the internet for inappropriate, uh, activities. The AP reports a study came out this week that shows their workers had 4,700 logged entries in one week onto gaming and sexually explicit Web sites.

*Rick Santorum's e-team is at it again: They've launched yet another anti-Casey alternative site, www.CaseyForAmnesty.com. But for a good time, we recommend the "Where's Bob Casey?" map, which has real photos of Casey from across Pennsylvania.

*The not-so-camera-shy Dick DeVos, running for Governor in Michigan, has launched a create-your-own-ad contest for supporters. The prize is (wait for it...) a video iPod.

*Democratic Congressional candidate Rick Bolanos has filed a lawsuit against Rep. Henry Bonilla's (R) campaign for illegally buying a dozen Web Sites addresses that he said he would have used for his campaign, otherwise known as "cybersquatting."

*Yes, now you can even register to vote on Facebook.com, thanks to a partnership with Rock The Vote. The program is part of larger effort by Young Voter Strategies to register 350,00 young voters in 2006, thanks to a grant from the Pew Charitable Trusts.

From National Journal: Sex, Lies & Election Day

In a year when good news is in short supply for the GOP, the revelation of former Rep. Mark Foley's lurid exchanges with underage pages was the last thing Republicans needed before the November elections. How will the political firestorm impact the Republican Party?
The Foley Fallout · A Calamity For Gay Republicans · The Law's Long Arms