NRSC To Invest $5M In New Jersey
Two independent sources tell the Hotline that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has decided to spend as much as $5 million between Friday and November 7 in a last ditch effort to dislodge Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez from office.
An NRSC spokesman declined to confirm the existence of the advertising blitz.
According to the two sources, both of whom have detailed and first-hand knowledge of the buy, the NRSC has reserved about $3.2 million worth of time in the ultra-expensive New York City market. One source said the NRSC would spend in excess of $1.5 million in Philadelphia. That portion of the buy could not be confirmed.
The NRSC believes that Menendez's negative ratings are higher than the mean for safe incumbents, and strategists note how the media’s focus on a federal investigation touching Menendez helped push Tom Kean Jr. into a narrow lead in September.
Though Menendez appears to have regained a slim lead, Republicans believe that his support among independents is still a bit soft and even waning.
The calculus may be this: between the NRSC and RNC, Republicans can't throw any more money in VA, MO or TN (and RI). So the NRSC is sitting on a pile of cash. They can't go into Ohio. They can't go into WA. That leaves MD (Steele), MI (Bouchard) or NJ (Menendez). $5M to Menendez may mean that NRSC has decided not to spend the money in MD or in MI, even as a GOP poll today put Steele within three of Cardin in MD.
Incidentally, the DSCC this p.m. released its latest internal survey of Maryland: Cardin leads by 12, 52 to 40.
Dems are confident they'll hold New Jersey, but they'll have to spend a little more money to achieve ad parity with the GOP.
(The ad buy was set in motion before today's gay marriage ruling, which may shake up cultural conservatives in parts of the state. Both Kean and Menendez oppose the federal marriage amendment. [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]