The Big Five: Hot House Race Updates

A daily update of trends and analyses from the hottest House races.

1. Thanks But No Thanks: House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-IL) has cancelled two GOP fundraisers and been rejected from another. He'll no longer fundraise for candidate/state Sen. Joy Padgett (R) in OH 18 10/12. Hastert called her office to say "his travel plans had changed." Padgett "declined to say" whether she would've cancelled the event." (Examiner).

And in IN 09, Hastert cancelled a 10/10 event to support Rep. Mike Sodrel, who faces a "tight" re-election race with ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D). Sodrel: "I suspect he's busy with other issues right now" (AP/Fort Wayne News-Sentinel).

What's more, write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R) in TX 22 "has decided not to accept Hastert's offer" to visit and fundraise for her. Sekula Gibbs spokesperson Lisa Dimond said Sekula Gibbs wants to wait "until after the [Foley] investigation is complete." Yet on 10/1, Sekula Gibbs "proudly told supporters" she would travel to TX to "help her raise some badly needed funds" (Roll Call).

2. Dave's World: In WA 08, Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Kamb discovered Rep. Dave Reichert (R) "knew for weeks" in '96 that a sgt. under his command "was meddling in a felony arson investigation" but " kept him on the job." The sgt., Matt Bachmeier, "had burned down his own Renton home to collect insurance" and killed "an innocent man." Reicher said 10/5: "Any idea that I should have shared information with the jurisdiction investigating the case is wrong."

Yet the federal lawsuit "specifically alleged" that Reichert "knew" of Bachmeier's meddling "at least three weeks before Bachmeier killed" James Wren "as part of his attempted cover-up" (Seattle Post-Intelligencer).

3. Anti-Harris Fallout In Her Own District?: In a new Hamilton Beattie FL 13 poll, auto dealer Vern Buchanan's (R) trailing banker Christine Jennings (D) by 12 points.

4. And the DCCC is out with new ads attacking GOPers. In NY 24, the DCCC attacks State Sen. Raymond Meier (R), saying he's "picked up bad habits we don't need in Washington" and "taken special interest contributions in gifts from energy and tobacco." John Gard (R) 10/2. Full script, "Reckless." In WI 08, the DCCC says Assemb. John Gard (R) has given WI "more trouble" by voting"to increase Wisconsin state debt 1.3 billion," and "to raise Madison legislators' pay."

5. While child safety activist Patty Wetterling's (D) manager says she's "a very spiritual woman" in MN 06 but adds, "We have her all over the district now, so much so that she's not able to attend church," Sen. Michele Bachmann (R)is "the real deal when it comes to religion in politics" and "attends an evangelical megachurch" (Washington Post).