The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates

1. FL 16: Not Unwinnable?

A Research 2000 poll; conducted 10/11-13 for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel and the Treasure Coast Newspapers; surveyed 600 LVs; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 10/15). Tested: Businessman Tim Mahoney (D) and State Rep. Joe Negron (R).

General Election Matchup            Fav/Unfav
             All Dem GOP Ind        Mahoney          47%/16%
Mahoney      48% 88% 17% 56%        Negron           37 /18
Negron       41   5  73  27
Other/undec  11   7  10  17

2. It's Time For The Pelosi Factor! : Retired USAF officer Charlie Brown's (D) campaign has focused "an attack" on Rep. John Doolittle (R) for "refusing to return" tens of dollars that the Brown campaign calls "the wages of sin."

Meanwhile, the Doolittle camp is "casting Brown as a closet liberal." Dollittle's radio ads have "excoriated" Brown for being an ACLU member. Doolittle spokesperson Richard Robinson: "He is the chameleon candidate... trying to portray himself as a conservative but he gets most of his money from... liberal communities."

Yet Brown said the "Pelosi factor" is the response he gets often from GOPers. Brown: "It's funny because I ask them to give me an example of what worries them about Pelosi and they can't give me one" (Sacramento Bee).

3. Quarter Back-ing Down: Ex-Redskins QB Heath Shuler (D) "backed down" from a 10/20 TV debate against Rep. Charles Taylor (R) saying "he couldn't clear time in his schedule." Taylor said he was "skeptical from the beginning that my opponent's handlers would allow him to appear in a public forum" citing his inexperience, calling Shuler's decision "disrespectful" to voters" (Asheville Citizen-Times).

In response, Shuler issued a release: "From the beginning we were very clear that I could not and would not debate on Sunday. Prior to entering this race I made a commitment to Nikol, Navy, and Island, that Sundays would remain a day for the family. It is a commitment I have not broken during this race and will not break in the closing weeks."

4. State Dems Endorse Challenger : LA Dem exec. cmte leaders 10/14 endorsed state Rep. Karen Carter (D) by a vote of 69-53 after hearing appeals from Carter and Rep. Bill Jefferson (D). Carter "celebrated the vote as an important statement against unethical behavior," while "Jefferson lashed out not only at Carter but also at stalwarts" of the LA Dem establishment, such as ex-Sens. John Breaux (D) and Bennett Johnston (D), "who Jefferson said were behind Carter's endorsement."

Although it's "unusual for the state committee to vote contrary to the endorsements of local executive committees," Carter said: "When the arrogance of power diminishes the rights of people, it's time for a change" (New Orleans Times-Picayune).