The Hotline's Hot House Race Updates
A daily update of ads, polls, trends and analyses from the hottest House races.
Updated Race Rankings: House **** Senate **** Governors
1. Friends In Low Places: The NRCC's launching several new TV ads in contested districts, including: CO 05, NV 03, WY AL and NY 29. Meanwhile, the DCCC has ad buys in KS 02 and KY 02.
2. Neck-And-Neck: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: State Sen. Peter Roskam (R) and Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D).
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Roskam 46% Duckworth 41%/40% Duckworth 42 Roskam 40 /34 Other/undec 12
Tighter Than We Thought: In IL 06, a Richard Day Research poll; conducted 10/16-22 for the Arlington Heights Daily Herald; surveyed 500 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/29). Tested: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) and businessman David McSweeney (R).
General Election Matchup Fav/Unfav Bean 42% Bean 43%/36% McSweeney 39 McSweeney 39 /35 Other/undec 19
3. Kleeb Up In One-Day Poll: A Penn Schoen & Berland (D) poll; conducted 10/29 in NE 03 for rancher Scott Kleeb (D); surveyed 404 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.9% (release, 10/30). Tested: Kleeb and State Sen. Adrian Smith (R).
General Election Matchup
All Dem GOP Ind
Kleeb 46% 80% 21% 55%
Smith 40 12 62 29
Other/undec 14 8 16 16
4. Talking Out Of Class: Rep. Tim Murphy's (R) past and present staffers say he "has mixed campaign activities and official government work in a manner" that violates House rules. Allegations include using his Mt. Lebanon office for campaign activities, instructing "taxpayer paid" staffers to carry campaign materials "at all times...for constituents," making "unpaid interns" go door-to-door to "homes of registered voters" and advising staffers "to devote their time to labeling, stuffing and mailing greeting cards to individuals who were campaign contributors" to Murphy. Scheduler Jayne O'Shaughnessy: "I see someone in a very high office taking advantage of people and situations, and it's wrong."
Yet Murphy "neither denied nor confirmed" the allegations. Murphy: "While it's interesting that these concerns have been raised one week before the election... I will cooperate." Although Telecom exec. Chad Kluko (D) has instructed his own staff "not to pursue the allegations of questionable ethics," it was Kluko's ex-campaign manager, Marty Marks, who informed the Post-Gazette about the allegations a week ago (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).