Warner: Virginia Fallout

By pulling out of the WH race, ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D) would seem to have at least two clear future political options, neither of which he ruled out at his press conference this morning. VA's senior Senator, John Warner (R), is up in '08. Warner, 79, was elected to the Senate in 1978 . The powerful Armed Services Committee chair has not yet indicated whether he'll seek a 6th term. One consideration for the senator: his term handling the Armed Services gavel comes to an end in January of '07. As a WW II and Korean veteran of both the Navy and Marines, not to mention an ex-Sec of the Navy, it is unclear whether Warner would want to spend 6 more years in the Senate watching somebody else chair the committee he sought for two decades.

Ex-NRCC chair/Rep. Tom Davis (R) has made clear his intent to run for the seat should Warner retire, but there is no logical Dem to take on the veteran Fairfax lawmaker. Or there wasn't until this morning. M. Warner, whose first campaign ended in what he calls a "second-place" finish to the elder Warner in '96, has the political base, name id and deep pockets to take on Davis. Such a race would be a titanic battle between two popular, Northern VA moderates with many overlapping supporters. Like the George Allen vs. Chuck Robb race in '00 -- another contest between two well-known veterans of VA politics -- M Warner vs. Davis would also be the premier SEN race of the cycle, drawing gobs of coverage from political reporters who live, work and vote in the neighborhood. A Warner win, and almost-certain effort to get on Armed Services or Foreign Relations, would offer the military and foreign affairs experience he so glaringly lacks right now.

To find the downside of such a race for M Warner' s WH ambitions, the ex-governor would only have to ask another guy who held his old job. Beyond the "boring" pace, George Allen could explain the many other pitfalls in trying to run for president from the upper chamber. Instead of running as a dynamic, business-minded ex-Southern governor with a centrist 4-year term under his belt, Warner would run with 3 years of party-line votes hanging over his head. Moreover, he'd also be just another Senator feeling the quadrennial itch to move down Pennsylvania Ave. If not convinced by Allen, Warner could just pick up the phone and call his fellow native-born Hoosier. A second-term Senator and Armed Services Committee member, Evan Bayh (D) says only half-jokingly in his stump speech that he is an ex-governor with national security credentials. Bayh, like all political observers, knows that it's easier to launch a WH campaign from a governor's mansion than a committee room in Russell.

Warner's other option would be to mount a bid to become only the second VA'ian in history to serve two terms in the governor's mansion. As with the SEN seat, there is no immediately apparent Democrat waiting to succeed the term-limited Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in '09. The only two other elected offices in the commonwealth, LG and AG, are held by Republicans. There has been speculation about Alexandria Del/Rep. Jim Moran brother Brian Moran (D) and state Sen/'05 AG nominee Creigh Deeds (D) making runs, but they would be quickly eclipsed at just the possibility of a Warner bid. He'd enter the race with warm feelings about his '02-'06 term from many VA'ians and numerous other advantages (money, name id, geographic base) over LG Bill Bolling (R) and AG Bob McDonnell (R), the two GOPers likely to run for the top job. Bids by ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) or even Allen would change the calculus, but Warner would still retain an advantage even against his two immediate predecessors.

An '09 GOV run, however, would mean a term that wouldn't begin until January of 2010. Warner, therefore, would have to start getting back to Des Moines and Manchester (and Vegas?) by the end of his first year back in the mansion. It was difficult enough for ex-Gov. Doug Wilder (D) to run for the WH at the end of his second year, '91, in office. Would VA'ians tolerate Warner returning for Richmond for a cup of coffee before heading out the door for another Harkin Steak Fry just months later? Timing is everything in politics, and it probably wouldn't work in this scenario if Warner has his eye on a WH run in 2012.

But Mark Warner was born in December of 1954. If he were to serve another complete term as governor, he'd not yet be 60 when leaving office in 2014. It is perhaps too soon to game out such a long-term possibility, but Warner is certainly young enough of a baby boomer to make a bid in the 2016 WH race.

Of course if HRC just puts Warner on the ticket in '08, it would make that path easier.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]