November 2006

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Sayfie's Review -- Times: Florida GOP Sees Big Role In 2008

NhNewslinks.com -- SNL: Blunt Faces First Session In The Minority

Quorum Report -- Kinky Furniture? It's Hot In South Austin

WisPolitics.com -- Senate Will Get Rid Of Paper Ballots

Capitol Fax If You’re Heading Home From Session…

JohnCombest.com -- Lynch Wants Murray Gone

Nancy Pelosi already had one leadership decision to make. Now she's got an intelligence committee chair to assign. We get the highly classified scoop on just what her decision will mean.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

It's never too early to start thinking about '08, which promises to be a volatile cycle even without a national wave.
Here are four categories of both parties' most vulnerable seats:

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

A panel on the 2008 Democratic Presidential Contenders with Anita Dunn (representing Bayh), Jessica Vanden Berg (representing Clark), Steve Murphy (representing Richardson), Doug Sosnik (representing Dodd), Jennifer Palmieri (representing Edwards) and unafilliated strategist Jim Jordan. The Hotline's own John Mercurio is moderating.

Question: What lessons did Democrats learn from '06 that they can use for '08?

Palmieri: "Most people who went to the voting booth were voting on economic issues... We had a big demographic change for the better for us."

Dunn: "The importance of not being part of an excessively partisan Washington political environment... I think you saw a middle class revolt of Washington politicians... It always goes against the party that's perceived to be in power."

Murphy: "The economy was a very harmful issue for the Republicans along with Iraq."

Vanden Berg: "I think one really important thing that we really did (in Webb '06) was not to cede anything to the Republicans." Webb talked about economic policy and Iraq across the state even in rural areas. "In order to win in '08 -- the foreign policy, national security issues aren't going to get any better -- It's really important that the candidates clearly articulate those issues too."

Sosnik: "The importance of running quality candidates, and candidate who fit their communities."

Jordan: "The re-recognition... of the swing voter."

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

A panel on the 2008 Republican race, with Rich Galen, Dave Kensinger (representing Sam Brownback), Mark McKinnon (representing John McCain), Jan van Lohuizen (representing Gov. Mitt Romney) and Alex Vogel (an adviser to Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN).

Who Is The Frontrunner?

Vogel: "The historical view is.. Republicans always, someone runs, they don;'t blow themselves up, it;'s yours. By historical definition, it;'s McCain. I think you look at top-tier candidates now, you have McCain, you have Giuliani and you have Romney..."

Galen: "I think at this moment that it's a two-way tie between McCain and Romney." Re: Giuliani: "I would go interview that ran Schwarzenegger's campaign ... he got 91 percent of the Republican vote in a state where the Republican Party is pretty right-wing. I think that that tells us something about where at least in California I think Republicans may well be more eager to win than they are to lose on the point on an ideological sword."

Kensinger: "In terms of name recognition, Giuliani tops the field with McCain a close second. In terms of demonstrated ability to raise funds, you've got to put Romney in there. But the Republican Party is ... fundamentally a coalition that is forged by president Reagan and there is a lot of room there for someone who has been a principled Reaganite conservative for his career..."

Van Lohuizen: "The Schwarzenegger model is: don't have a primary." The frontrunner question is kind of a really neat question because between now and January 15th and we can ask it 400 times and get a hundred different answer. Who cares?

McKinnon: "The polls speak for themselves, and the polls say that Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner."

Galen: "The difference between governor or running for mayor even of New York and running for president is enormous because the pressures, the spotlight, parsing every sentence... is very often just overwhelming to candidates who haven't been in there before."

Excerpts below from IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's presidential announcement, given this morning at Iowa Wesleyan College.

Presidential problems:

On homeland security:

A confident underdog:

Family values:

Prized accomplishments in Iowa:

Keeping the faith:

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

FEC chairman Michael Toner: "The state of election administration in this country has been an embarassment."

More resources at the state level and more "professionalization" of election professionals.

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

A panel with DCCC IE director John Lapp, FEC chairman Michael Toner, Donna Brazile, Fred Barnes and Slate's John Dickerson on the 2006 midterms. Larry J. Sabato is your moderator.

Lapp: "It wasn't until the end of 2005 and into 2006 that we had a serious shot [at taking the House].

Toner: "One of the unwritten stories of this year is that Republicans closed well and they won't most of the close races. Of the races decided by 4 percentage points or close, Republicans won [most of them.] It could have been worse for Republicans."

Toner noted that the Democratic party committees raised as much this year (all in hard money) than they did in '02, when they could still accept soft money. Also: Toner noted a sudden upsurge in challenger fundraising.

Brazile: "We didn't give [Republicans] disunity. [Democrats] were pretty unified."

Barnes: "This was a war election [not a sixth year itch election.] Imagine if the Iraq War wasn't going on. Would Democrats have won the Senate? I don't think so." More Barnes: "When you look back at history and you see presidents or parties running when there is no victory in site... like...say 1862 when Lincoln was president and Republicans lost seats...in 1952, Harry Truman would have run for re-election absent the Korean War which lowered his presdiential approval rating down to the 20s...1968...absent the war in Vietnam, would LBJ have backed out? Would Democrats have lost? Of course not."

Sabato: "The 1950 midterm election... Republicans picked up 29 House seats and 6 Senate seats. And they say history doesn't repeat itself."

Lapp: "The overall theme of the election was, it's competence and corruption, stupid."

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.


Editor's Note: this writer will not attempt to craft a narrative from Mr. Carville's stream of consciousness.

Breezing through his standard roster of jokes (Mary Matalin and estrogen, Howard Dean, Dan Quayle), James Carville, one of politics' most successful consultants and one of Bill Clinton's best friends, pronounced the 2006 election "pretty predictable."

But, he said, "The most disturbing thing to me as a Democrat was that this was the third election cycle in a row that Republicans have closed better than us. Wherever we were on Friday before, we were not as good on Election Day."

The "most positive thing," he said: "the thing that reaches out and slaps you across the face is 18-t0-30s. I think we won them about 61 to 39. Way Way better than any other age group. If you're a political party, you'd rather have [that age group] because they tend to be around longer."

"There is no clear Republican frontrunner," which Carville calls an historical anomaly. Not since 1940 has the Republican Party not annointed its standardbearer years in advance. Republicans, Carville said, aren't used to divisive, competitive primaries.

Another historical anomaly: "We're going to have five larger-than-life candidates running for President. McCain, Giuliani, Hillary Clinton, Obama and Al Gore. And you want to make it interesting, you might have Newt Gingrich in it."

The rest of the fields: "It's hard to see them as president."

"Giuliani and McCain are larger than life people. They're not the most temperate men I know. Maybe we'll have a little fisticuffs. In the long, freezing cold, irritating saga of the campaign, we know many delicious things are going to happen."

On Hillary Clinton's potential campaign: "I don't think I'm going to work on it, but I'll be helpful where I can."

Live from the The American Democracy Conference at the Reagan Federal Center in DC.

James Carville isn't stepping back from his full-frontal criticism of Howard Dean. But this morning, speaking to benefactors of the UVA's Center for Politics, he proposed a truce, of sorts. He acknowledged that Dean's ouster as chair wasn't likely.

But if the Democratic Party convenes a blue ribbon panel to figure out why Republicans close elections better than Democrats, "I'd be satisfied," Carville said.

He noted that Dems, from '02 through '06, seemed to lose ground the last weekend before the elections. He accused the DNC of leaving $6 million "on the table" and called it "inexcusable."

Here's our assessment of the Carville claims.

Lots of talk last night on Pres. Bush not meeting with Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki:

NBC's K. O'Donnell, on the non-meeting: "There was no photo opportunity, no dinner, no nothing" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/29).

CNN's Malveaux: "It was clear the president was not consulted, and left the impression of a brush-off. The White House is trying to downplay the no-show, insisting it wasn't, pointing out, Mr. Bush and Maliki's face-to-face talks are still planned for tomorrow" ("AC 360," 11/29).

FNC's Baier: "The change of plans appeared to surprise White House officials, who tried to play down its significance" ("Special Report," 11/29).

FNC's Smith, on Bush: "It does sound like he's has been stiffed" ("On the Record," 11/29).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "It was a huge embarrassment. It's the last thing you want. ... To have this happen at a time when confidence in the president's handling of the war is plummeting, and events on the ground are spiraling down into crisis, too, I think this is a very bad blow for the president" ("AC 360," CNN, 11/29).

FNC SAYS HRC MAY NOT RUN

FNC's Cameron: "The chairman of Iowa's Democratic party told Fox News that Mrs. Clinton has not been adequately laying the groundwork for her campaign and that first in the nation caucus goers are being told she may not run because of growing buzz over Illinois Freshman Senator Barack Obama's expected candidacy."

Interim IA Dem Chair Rob Tully: "She's been quiet and, you know, there's a question that we all hear is that she may not get in this if Barack Obama gets in. I have never seen a reaction other than Bill Clinton in terms of the excitement that people have to meet Barack Obama. Some people just wanted to touch him" ("Special Report," 11/29).

KERRY'S DOG DAYS

"LKL" last night featured Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and bounty hunter Duane "Dog" Chapman (in separate interviews):

Kerry, asked if Bush was snubbed by Maliki: "Well, it's hard to interpret. But I think what's more important is really what happens tomorrow and what happens in the next days."

Asked if he calls Iraq a civil war: "Yes. And I have for some time. It is a civil war."

On coming in last in the Quinnipiac poll: "I would have voted myself last when it was taken."

On WH '08: "I have said again and again, that decision is down the road" (CNN, 11/29).

During the Chapman segment, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) appeared to discuss why he sent Sec/State Condoleezza Rice a letter asking her to deny Dog's extradition to Mexico.

Tancredo: "I believe that we should never have responded to it. I mean, it was amazing to me, when I first saw this whole thing and first read about it, that we were responding to Mexico's request so aggressively, so willingly, so quickly. I mean, especially it was a request to bring back somebody, to extradite somebody from the United States for a crime that was really a misdemeanor, which is not something we would usually do. ... You have to say to yourself, why would the United States, the Department of State, spend the time, energy and effort getting involved with this thing?"

More Tancredo: "The fact that there are hundreds of thousands of people around this country who are concerned about his welfare and concerned about how the State Department handles this can do nothing but help. But I want to make sure that Mexico understands that I am not being critical of them at this particular juncture" ("LKL," CNN, 11/29).[EMILY GOODIN]

Once again, The Hotline has partnered with the Univ. of VA's Center of Politics to present our 9th annual American Democracy Conference. It's a unique year-end event in that it doesn't just look back on the year that was but looks ahead to the election that will be.

This year's ADC will feature a keynote address by James Carville, in addition to top Republican and Democratic panelists representing many of the oft-mentioned contenders for each party's WH '08 nod.

The event is free and open to the public with advance registration, and it will be held from 9am-1:15 at the Ronald Reagan Building and Int'l Trade Center (1300 Penn. Ave. NW; WDC) on Thursday, 11/30.

The Agenda, after the jump.

As the months preceding New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's eventual presidential announcement dwindle to weeks, it's worth exploring just how difficult her path to the Democratic nomination really is. It's tricky to write about her these days, because it seems that everything's been said -- just not everyone has said it. But let's attempt a fresher look.

As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination.

Too many of us have awarded Clinton the '08 nod too soon and too easily. The conventional-wisdom crowd is easily impressed by two things about her candidacy: money and her last name. There's also a dirty little secret that those of us in the media are leery to admit: She's good for business (particularly expense reports).

Take the money and surname drama and add a dash of media anticipation, and you get the simplest explanation of the perceived Clinton juggernaut.

There's one flaw in all of this, though, and that is the electorate. As the likelihood of a Clinton campaign becomes a reality, more reasons turn up that suggest why she could lose the nomination. In fact, the primary may be harder for her than the general election. A bad three-week period at the wrong time in the wrong state could doom a bid, particularly with this front-loaded primary calendar. While the same thing can happen in a general, the same ridiculous scoring of expectations doesn't apply to general elections the way it does in primary battles. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue Reading On The Trail

Remember all those great races in '03? Chandler vs. Fletcher in KY Gov, Jindal vs. Blanco in LA Gov? Well, get ready for 2007, the year of the rematch. And we have some great races in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, too!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Susan McCue, chief of staff for incoming majority leader Harry Reid, will leave to become the CEO of the the ONE campaign, an AIDS relief and anti-poverty group.

ONE features ordinary Americans and luminaries who've banded together to "make poverty history" and fight AIDS. The group boasts 2.4 million members and hosted 600 activist house parties during the midterms.

Yes, it's the Bono thingie.

ONE gets its name from getting ONE percent of Americans to increase by ONE percent the "ONE percent of the federal budget is currently marked for fighting AIDS and poverty around the world."

Republicans like Jack Oliver and Mark McKinnon, along with Democrats like Mike McCurry (and basically, all of Hollywood) count themselves as members.

From the ONE release:

“Susan has made getting results her calling card on Capitol Hill and now she’ll bring that experience to building a historic and bipartisan campaign,” said ONE Board Member and Republican strategist Jack Oliver. “The ONE Campaign, and the fight against global AIDS and extreme poverty, has gained an incredible leader and advocate."

Noted: the web team behind Stop Her Now is also built Sen. John McCain's exploratory committee site.

As we clumsily and incompletely hinted at yesterday, Gov. Mitt Romney is beefing up his campaign policy team, announcing today that R. Glenn Hubbard of Columbia and Greg Mankiw of Harvard will advise him on economics. Both men are, of course, former chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Bush. The other interesting new name to political junkies will be Cesar Conda, a former domestic policy aide to Vice President Cheney who heretofore was a committed supporter of Sen. George Allen. Conda will serve as a senior policy adviser.

Romney and company head to Miami, FL today to prepare for his exit from the Republican Governors Association conference. His contingent will be joined there by a large number of John McCain's senior-most advisers, including John Weaver, McCain's political guru. Several McCain friendly governors will be in Romney's audience.

Squibs:

To the politically engaged public, Bill Frist was President Bush’s hand-picked majority leader who had to placate 54 other egos. To the press, he was derided, often cast as close to incompetent. To his staff, he was the guy who dropped everything in the middle of a heated immigration debate to tend to an ill staffer. The disjuncture between these views is striking.

The Wall Street Journal’s David Rogers noted that Frist, in an interview last night, “seemed to acknowledge he had lost some of his own identity.” Frist sees himself as a guy who helps others. From his statement today: “My dad in his later years wanted to impart some wisdom to his grandchildren and great grandchildren he would never meet. One thing he wrote that has stuck with me- in fact been a clarion call to me -- was there is so much good to do in the world and so many ways to do it. Politics is a noble occupation. Medicine is a noble profession. Service to others underlies both.” Health care was a true passion, one that he could never find enough time for as Majority Leader.

It’s ironic: lured by the illusion of being in control, he found he could not shape legislation to the degree he had hoped, according to one current aide and one outside adviser. “He wasn’t able to pursue the ideas that excited him,” a current senior staffer said.

Around 11:00 am, today, Frist held a conference call with his staff. He told them that he was most proud of his accomplishments in health care. Topping that list, Frist said, was his work to add billions to fund HIV/AIDS treatment in Africa.

After 9/11, Congress ceded policy making, especially for everything related to defense and national security, to the White House. Republicans allowed the White House to dictate the terms of the domestic policy agenda as well. Occasionally, as with Pres. Bush’s push for a Medicare prescription drug benefit, The White House’s agenda coincided with Frist’s. Often, as when the White House decided to spend the first part of 2005 on Social Security reform, they did not. But Frist does not think his fidelity to the president was a mistake.

First does not suffer from a lack of staff loyalty; they are totally devoted to the guy. In Memphis last Spring, as Frist prepared for his home-state straw poll, they distributed (and proudly wore) stickers that said “Frist Is My Leader,” vaguely unaware of the Orwellian undertones. The metrics his political advisers set for him in 2006 suggest that they did not fully appreciate the power of a negative public image. If Frist could win the straw poll, have a fairly bump-free year in the Congress and confirm conservative judges, and finally, if Republicans kept control of the Senate, Frist’s political team believed that he’d be judged a top-tier presidential candidate. [MARC AMBINDER}

Political Washington is fast waking up to the possibility that Sen. Barack Obama's presidential explorations are, in fact, serious.

The oft-cited reasons why people "know" he's not running include: obviously, he wants to be the Alpha Dog in the Democratic Party, not president. Or: his wife Michelle is dead set against a presidential run. Or: Robert Gibbs, Obama's communications director, has somehow orchestrated a public relations campaign to sell his boss's books.

Ignore all of that.

Without getting into the man's skull, a sober assessment of the available evidence suggests that Obama is seriously debating whether to enter the race.

Here's what we know:

## Several of Obama's senior advisers have spent the past few weeks sketching out what an Obama campaign would look like, who it might employ, how it might differ from conventional campaigns, and where it might go. Those plans, according to Democrats close to Obama, have not been operationalized.

## Obama's advisers have reached out to several major professional fundraisers, including DSCC finance director Julianna Smoot, and have brainstormed about other talent they might hire.

## But "no person in any orbit of Barack Obama has been asked to do any specific or non specific job in a future political endeavor" says Robert Gibbs, his communications director. Some Democrats are circulating the rumor that strategist David Plouffe is ready to move to Chicago to be the campaign manager. Not true, says Plouffe. In fact, he's soon headed for a vacation.

## Some folks on the outer periphery of Obama's universe are thinking about the Chicago apartment hunt.

## Since the election, Obama has made a circuit through official Democratic provinces, calling labor leaders, aides to other presidential candidates, donors and lawmakers. He asks earnest questions about the mechanics of a run. He asks questions about how to protect his family with the brutal pace of a campaign. Obama doesn't make an "ask" at these meetings, according to several participants. He does not request a formal or informal committment from his interlocutors.

## He'll make his first, post-election stop in New Hampshire on Dec. 10, when he will l be the NH Dems' "special guest" for the party's "2006 Election Celebration" in Manchester.

Here's what we don't know: Is Obama's wife Michelle fully on board? She has expressed to friends her fears about her husband's safety. At the same time, it's impossible to imagine that Barack Obama would be testing the waters as deeply as he is without Michelle Obama's consent. [MARC AMBINDER]

Sources close to outgoing Maj. Leader Bill Frist tell the Hotline that Frist has decided not to run for President.

He will make a formal announcement this afternoon, the sources said.

Frist made the decision in recent days after consulting family, friends and advisers.

We reported yesterday that, thanks to a recount, Dems won control of the PA State House.

Today, some good news for the GOP: After a recount in Montana's Yellowstone County, State Rep. candidate Kratyon Kerns (R) eeked out a 3-vote win over Dem Emelie Eaton (D), giving the GOP a 50-49 majority, with one member hailing from the Constitution Party. A recount in Jefferson County, where GOPer Scott Mendenhall (R) leads Dem Sheila Hogan (D) by 24 votes, is pending.

MT GOP Exec. Dir. Chuck Denowh told the Great Falls Tribune the shift was "huge news. If you look across the nation, there's only a couple of states where Republicans gained a house of the legislature." Actually, the GOP's win in Montana makes it the only state in which the party won back control. Democrats have picked up ten chambers around the country.

The GOP came close in the State Senate, picking up two seats to force the chamber into a 25-25 tie though, thanks to a quirk in state law, the governor's party -- Dems -- retain control in a tie. Adding injury to insult, GOP State Sen. Sam Kitzenberg changed party affiliation after the election, giving Dems a 26-24 majority.

Democrats now control both legislative chambers in 24 states while the GOP holds both gavels in 15 states. 10 are split, and Nebraska's unicameral state senate is non-partisan. [REID WILSON]

Lots of talk on Iraq last night, especially about Pres. Bush's NATO speech and his appearance at the Ammon summit:

CNN's Malveaux: "Despite the deteriorating conditions on the ground in Iraq, President Bush refused to call the growing chaos and carnage between warring factions there civil war" ("AC 360," 11/28).

FNC's Baier: "Bush addressed the immense pressure at home and abroad to change course in Iraq. On the eve of a trip
to Jordan ... the president once again drew a line in the sand" ("Special Report," 11/28).

DOWN BUT NOT OUT

There was also talk of Rep. Alcee Hastings not getting the Intel Cmte chairmanship:

FNC's Garrett: "The Congressional Black Caucus, which strongly supported Hastings, raised no objections. This is in keeping with private assurances that Pelosi had received from the caucus that it would give her wide latitude in dealing with this matter" ("Special Report," 11/28).

CNN's Koppel: "Now perhaps surprisingly, the congressional Black Caucus of which Hastings is a member, which has been among his biggest supporters and wrote a letter to Pelosi on his behalf did not criticize Pelosi's decision. Instead, its chairman said that basically Hastings would have made an outstanding intelligence chairman and we still hope he will at some point in the future" ("Situation Room," 11/28).

Hill's Stoddard: "There must be some other plan that Nancy Pelosi has concocted with the Black Caucus about some other position for Alcee Hastings. He had the seniority in this position. Harman jumped over him and her time
was up" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/28).

WE LOVE '08

And here's a sampling of some last night's WH '08 talk:

GOP strategist Mike Murphy, on who he'd rather run against: "I probably would rather run against Hillary, because she is old news and Barack is new news" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/28).

Ex-Pres. Carter, on Gore: "I encouraged him so much in 2004 to run that he finally said, 'Mr. President, please do not bother me about this any more. My family and I have decided I'm not going to run.' He almost got angry with me. But I don't have that much doubt, first of all, that Al Gore was elected president by votes in Florida and throughout the nation in the year 2000. And I think, had he run in the year 2004 he would have won. And if I had to choose now a candidate out of all the ones that exist, at this point, at least, Al Gore would still be my preference" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/28).

MSNBC's Olbermann, on Gingrich's NH speech: "If you're going to destroy freedom of speech, bub, you've already lost all the cities" ("Countdown," 11/28).

Newsweek's Alter: "Gingrich is a man of ideas. Some of the ideas are dopey and dangerous. Maybe many of the ideas are dopey and dangerous. A few of them are good. He likes to talk ideas. And I don't think that he was playing the angles here of a presidential run" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/28).

Washington Post's Dionne, on Biden's Iraq plan: "Senator Biden's plan is smart and thoughtful and it probably wouldn't work right now" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/28). [EMILY GOODIN]

After meeting with House Speaker-elect Pelosi this afternoon, Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla., issued a statement confirming he will not serve as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

"I have been informed by the speaker-elect that I will not serve as the chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence in the 110th Congress," he said. "I am obviously disappointed with this decision." Hastings won election to Congress in 1992, after having been impeached and removed from office as a federal judge. He concluded his statement by saying, "Sorry, haters, God is not finished with me yet."

Here's Pelosi's statement:

"Congressman Alcee Hastings and I have had extensive consultations, and today I advised him that I would select someone else as Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. Alcee Hastings has always placed national security as his highest priority. He has served our country well, and I have full confidence that he will continue to do so."

The blogosphere grows more powerful and more brazen. What effect will they have on the 2008 presidential primaries? The left and the right take very different approaches.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

It seems good news for Democrats just keeps coming. Going into the election, the party held 94 seats out of 203 in the Pennsylvania State House. The party picked up enough seats to earn a 101-100 lead after most ballots were counted, though two seats – both previously controlled by Republicans – were close enough to require recounts.

Republican Duane Milne kept a narrow 144-vote lead after provisional, overseas and absentee ballots were all cast, creating a 101-101 tie and putting control of the chamber in the hands of the 156th House District. In that race, Republican Shannon Royer led his Democratic opponent, Barbara Smith, by just 19 votes (out of close to 30K cast) going into today’s final counts.

After all the ballots were tallied, Smith reversed the gap and emerged with a 23-vote victory, handing control of the State House to Democrats in a chamber few thought they had a chance of picking off.

While a recount is almost certain, if Smith’s lead holds, Democrats will have won 11 state legislative chambers nationwide in ’06.

The 320-seat Democratic pickup may not be a historical high – the party out of power in the White House picks up an average of 324 seats in midterms, and the GOP won more than 500 seats from Democrats in ’94 – Democrats chose their spots strategically. The party won seats in every region of the country, including the South, stopping a decade-long slide in the region. [REID WILSON]

At the end of every "Two and a Half Men," the "Chuck Lorre Production" company includes a frame of text with some message from the producer. Last night, through the power of TiVO, one of us decided to pause and read it. In a word, um, wow.

Here's the full message:

"I'm relieved that he's reached across the aisle to fight global warming. I'm delighted that he's worked to increase the minimum wage, reduce the cost of pharmaceutical drugs, improve the infrastructure, and bring accountability to the school system. My problem, and let me state for the record that it's my problem, not his, is simply this: Whenever I hear the governor of California speak I find myself nervously looking around for a train that will take me to Poland."

This web site has archived all of these post-show messages.

It is very tempting to read the Center for American Progress's 100 Day Agenda, which pres. John Podesta unveiled this a.m., as a blueprint for what Sen. Hillary Clinton would have Democrats do if she were in charge.

CAP, of course, is filled with Clinton veterans, some of whom will decamp to Clinton's expected presidential campaign next year. (One exception: senior CAPper Jennifer Palmieri is a pledged member of Sen. John Edwards' presidential team.)

Presidential speculation aside, CAP wants to cement its status as the policy shop for Democrats. Here's their preferred congressional agenda through August:

-- Level the playing field between credit card companies and consumers
-- Create a Universal 401(k) to promote ownership, savings, and bipartisanship
-- Create a new Wellness Trust
-- Enact comprehensive immigration reform
-- Ensure that surveillance of terrorists is effective and on a sound legal footing
-- Adopt a national target to avoid dangerous climate change
-- Require 25 percent of electricity production from renewable sources by 2025 and establish a new cross-cutting research division at the Department of Energy

Now that the open secret of Warren Tompkins' joining Team Romney has been officially confirmed by the Massachusetts Governor's Commonwealth PAC. Who's next? A Romney aide says to expect a few major policy advisers to reveal themselves today.

Sen. John McCain today announced the endorsement of South Carolina AG commissioner Hugh Weathers. Writes Weathers, in a statement: "John McCain appeals to farmers and all South Carolinians because of his character, integrity and unique qualifications for the office. He’s a true American hero, and he would bring to our nation the kind of conservative, inspirational leadership in a league with Ronald Reagan.” McCain will probably announce his full candidacy at the beginning of the second week of January.

News about Lou Susman, a major Democratic fundraiser, helping Gov. Tom Vilsack is old hat to On Call readers. Check out Mr. Susman's characterization of his role in The Des Moines Register.

Speaking of Vilsack, here's the schedule for his formal launch. Tomorrow evening, he attends a potluck dinner in Mt. Pleasant, where he served as mayor. On Thursday, he delivers his "announcement address" at the Iowa Wesleyan College Howe Center in Mt. Pleasant. He's in Concord, NH that night, speaking at a Merrimack Co. Dem dinner. On Friday, he gives a speech at the New Hampshire Technical Institute's Community College. A few campaign stops later, he flies to Pittsburgh, PA, where he was born. He takes reporters on a walking tour of his old neighborhood, has coffee at a local Joe joint, grabs a slice at Mineo's Pizza, and decamps for Des Moines for a major fundraiser. He's in Nevada and South Carolina on the 3rd and 4th.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Sayfie's Review -- Democrats renew drive for paper trail with electronic voting machines

NhNewslinks.com -- Does Tompkins hire for Romney forecast SC showdown?

Quorum Report -- Madera Funeral Details

WisPolitics.com -- Insurance Commissioner Gomez Resigns

Capitol Fax Durbin touts Obama for prez

JohnCombest.com -- McCaskill On Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Lots of talk last night on NBC's decision to call Iraq a "civil war":

MSNBC's Olbermann: "Is this the Walter Cronkite moment of the Iraq War?" ("Countdown," 11/27).

FNC's Hannity: "They think that they're Walter Cronkite and they want to have an impact here. But they've never given the American public the story about all the success in Iraq" ("Hannity & Colmes," 11/27).

CNN's Ware, in Baghdad: "By any academic's definition, this is civil war, organized conflict by two elements within a country to pursue the political center, with elements of ethnic cleansing, militia combat, family against family, neighbor against neighbor, with a degree of organization and coordination. ... So, whether the White House calls it civil war or not, the fact on the ground is, if this is not civil war, we don't want to see one when it comes" ("PZ Now," 11/27).

More Ware: "Anyone who still remains in doubt about whether this is civil war or not is suffering from the luxury of distance" ("Situation Room," 11/27).

Pat Buchanan: "If you want to call it a civil war, fine. But it's not a traditional civil war, like the Spanish Civil War, where one side or the other is fighting for the capital and control of the entire country. It's a series of wars, a number of wars in one" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

Retired Gen./NBC News analyst Barry McCaffrey: "I've been calling it that, a low-grade civil war, for the last 18 months" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

Washington Post's Priest: "I think one of the reasons the president resists that label is because it equates almost with a failure of U.S. policy" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/27).

Ex-Pres. Carter: "I think there's certainly been indications of civil war for a long time. The war is between civil entities within the country and it's obviously reached a point of not being constrained or controlled by outside forces, including American forces, so I don't think there's anything wrong with calling it a civil war. It doesn't change the character of it just because NBC has said that but I don't think it's a misnomer for it" ("LKL," CNN, 11/27). [EMILY GOODIN]

While it's unclear what alternatives will eventually emerge (ex-Sen. John Edwards, Sen. Barack Obama for Dems; ex-NY mayor Rudy Giuliani and MA Gov. Mitt Romney for GOPers), it can safely be said that the respective sides of the 'sphere both will fight their parties' current '08 frontrunners (Sens. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and John McCain (R-AZ)). Is blogger preference for underdogs an emerging pattern, or the fluke of a unique cycle absent an incumbent Pres. or VP from either party? In '04, the netroots staunchly supported "outsider" Howard Dean while righty bloggers uniformly backed Pres. Bush, who was unopposed in the '04 GOP primary. But had the blogosphere existed in '00, how would online support have broken down? Al Gore is lefty favorite now, but it seems a stretch to believe he would have been a huge favorite over then-Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NY). And on the GOP side, it's hard to imagine righty bloggers lining up for McCain.

DEM FIELD: Hillary Haters Or Alternative Lovers?

MyDD's Chris Bowers looks ahead to '08 and wonders what role the netroots will play in Dem primaries without a DNC chair Howard Dean-like standard bearer support. Bowers's acknowledges "[s]everal potential candidates, most notably Clark, Edwards, Gore and Obama, appear to have a substantial amount of online support" but still worries whether "a divided progressive movement in 2008 will result in a dilution of netroots influence over the primary season."

Bowers also "fear[s]" a divided netroots could lead to "a very, very ugly scene online" during the primary season and is not sure whether the netroots biggest '08 impact will be "how they drag Hillary Clinton down," or "how they build a different candidate up." Bowers argues HRC's netroot approval numbers "should be very worrying to any member of her 2008 campaign team" and worries about what an HRC victory would mean "to the influence of the netroots within the Democratic Party."

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

The first yard signs of the 2008 White House contest are in the ground in South Carolina.

A Hotline spy tells us that close to 50 yard signs showed up between I-85 and Clemson University. The candidate: Attorney/'00 cong. candidate/'02 Sen candidate/'04 Cook Co. (IL) Recorder of Deeds nom. John Cox (R).

Click here for proof that we're not making this up.

Also, a Hotline staff writer saw a bumper sticker supporting a White House bid by Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) in Connecticut over the holiday weekend. Where can we find Katherine Harris or Shelley Sekula Gibbs paraphernalia?

Squibs:

NBC's Lauer noted on the "Today" show this a.m.: "For months now the White House has rejected claims that the situation in Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war. And, for the most part, news organizations like NBC have hesitated to characterize it as such. But after careful consideration, NBC News has decided a change in terminology is warranted -- that the situation in Iraq with armed militarized factions fighting for their own political agendas -- can now be characterized as a civil war" (11/27).

Here's what Democrats have to look forward to this week, courtesy of Speaker-elect Pelosi, in a memo she sent to her caucus last week:

Dear Democratic Colleague:

Congratulations again on your election. The American people have asked for change, and with your leadership, we are going to take our nation in a New Direction. I am deeply honored and grateful for the opportunity given me by the Democratic Caucus to serve as the next Speaker of the House. Thank you so much for your vote of confidence in me. We will accomplish so much together.

During the week of December 4th, we have scheduled presentations on two of the most critical issues we will confront in the 110th Congress. I urge your attendance at both.

* On Tuesday, December 5, at 9:00 a.m. we will hear a presentation on Iraq. Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, and Major General John Batiste will be among the presenters.

* On Wednesday, December 6, at 9:30 a.m. we will have a presentation on the economy by former Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin on the need for restoring fiscal discipline and building a competitive economy to create jobs in America.

You will be receiving additional materials from my office on these two sessions soon. In the meantime, I hope you will add both to your busy schedules.

We all have so much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving, and I hope that you have a wonderful holiday. I look forward to seeing you in early December.

best regards,

NANCY PELOSI
Speaker of the House-Designate

The war in Iraq dominated the Sunday talk shows:

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): "What we could do right now before we decide whether we want to increase or decrease or maintain the level of American forces [in Iraq], before you make those decisions, let's take the forces we've already trained, we've already equipped, which are 50 miles away in some cases, move them into the fight, see how they carry that security burden. And after we get a handle on how well they're doing, then we can make adjustments on the American force level" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 11/26).

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS): "We cannot face the public again in 2008 with the current situation still in hand for the United States. We have to get to a political solution in the region. We have to push a political solution in the region, and I think we've really got to start pushing people there on the ground and in the area to come together, to work together because we can't have this same situation 18 months from now facing the United States" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO): "We all agree on the one thing, and I think the key is getting the Iraqis trained and fully advised" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 11/26).

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "We are dealing with the worst foreign policy decision that's been made in America since Vietnam. It is a terrible situation, not easily resolved and not quickly resolved. When the Democrats take control, you're not going to see a change overnight. We have to work very carefully with our Republican friends and with the administration to find the best way to bring this to a close" ("This Week," ABC, 11/26).

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), on how many more troops are needed in Iraq: "I would take the advice of our generals on the ground. But I think we're talking about 20 to 50,000 additional troops to embed them with the Iraqis, so that when we clear areas, we can actually secure them" ("Late Edition," CNN, 11/26).

Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI): "I think 20,000 extra troops would probably not be decisive in terms of changing the political dynamic and the security dynamic in Iraq. And indeed, we'd have a very difficult time sustaining an additional 20,000 troops over, say, a year or more. A third of our brigades in the United States are reporting nondeployable because of personnel and equipment shortages. So the prospect of a magic bullet with just more troops, I don't think is there" ("Late Edition," CNN, 11/26).

[EMILY GOODIN]

Despite Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's (R) resounding '06 win, one TX Dem insider says Dems are hopeful that a strong challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R) will still emerge. The Dem claims Cornyn "has significantly lower approval rating" than Hutchison and that Gov. Rick Perry's (R) plurality win shows the TX GOP base is only 40% of voters. However the Dem concedes that a credible challenger would have to start raising money right now for what could be a $12M campaign.

Already mentioned as possibilities are '98/'02 LG nominee/ex-Comp. John Sharp (D) and Houston Mayor Bill White (D), but ex-Rep. Jim Turner (D) still has over $1M CoH left over. There are "rumblings" about Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-28) running, and '02 nominee/ex-Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk's (D) name gets batted around occasionally too (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

OREGON: Ben There, Going To Do That?

When asked via e-mail, '06 GOV candidate/state Sen. Ben Westlund (I) political adviser Stacey Dycus writes: "Democrats have been asking Ben to run against" Sen. Gordon Smith (R), "but he really hasn't considered it. People have also asked him about" Treas. and re-election to state Senate. "Right now, he's not thinking about his next election, he's thinking about a well-deserved vacation and the next session. ... He is an independent and all I can tell you is that his heart and mind is closer to the views held by Democrats, but he has no plans to change registration. If asked, he may caucus with the D's this session"

An OR Dem source reports general optimism about '08, given Smith will up in a presidential year. Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), as always, is the "lion in waiting." Other attractive candidates would be Clatsop Co. DA Josh Maquis (D), Educ. Sup't Susan Castillo (D), and Treas. Randall Edwards (D) (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

MAINE: All Eyes On Allen

A ME GOP source concedes Sen. Susan Collins (R) won't likely get a free pass in '08, however most Dems are waiting to see what Rep. Tom Allen (D-01) will do before making their own plans. Allen has long expressed interesting in running for SEN, and the lingering rumors about him running in '06 may have kept state Senate Maj. Leader Michael Brennan (D) from challenge Sen. Olympia Snowe (R). But Allen will be pressed to make a quicker decision for '08, and the GOPer notes Allen didn't run a single TV ad this campaign (presumably to build his warchest) and has spent a lot of time recently in ME-02, outside his CD. At last reporting, Allen had $440K CoH to Collins' $392K

Although the new Dem majority in the House might discourage Allen from giving up his House seat, many think he's still likely to run. If not, AG Steve Rowe (D) could be a strong challenger. Also mentioned are Brennan and '02 nominee/Common Cause pres. Chellie Pingree (D), who ran a decent campaign in '02 (Hotline reporting, 11/21).

Amid all the hoopla last week hailing the Blue Dogs’ new place in the sun were a couple articles suggesting the conservative Democrats would work with the moderate Republican Tuesday Group on a number of issues. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) office is already dubbing the new team the “Tuesday Dogs.” But aside from the fact that both groups face political challenges at home and in their respective caucuses, what do F-150 Democrats and Volvo Republicans really have in common?

In general, the Tuesday Groupers represent suburban districts that encompass towns like ritzy Fairfield, CT, and Lake Forest, IL, while the Blue Dogs are rural Democrats from places like the Napoleonville, LA, and Port St. Joe, FL.

As the geography would suggest, this presents a cultural rift. A number of Blue Dogs, including boss hog John Tanner (D-TN), voted to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case while a couple Tuesday Groupers, including likely 110th Congress co-chair Charlie Dent (R-PA), spoke out against the measure.

It is also hard to see where the two coalitions would strike a common chord on matters like trade or energy. An analysis of CD’s reveals that the median household income in Tuesday Group districts hovers around $50K/year -- which is about $10K more than it is in Blue Dog districts. Moreover, the poverty level is higher in Blue Dog districts (~14%) and their constituents are more likely to work blue-collar jobs. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

The Hotline is partial to "The Mission" ourselves, but here's a treat for those of you who really like the theme music for the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric.

Be most thankful for this Thanksgiving gift.

More proof that New England Republicans are in danger of taking up permanent residence at the margins comes this morning when a member of the Connecticut House of Representatives switches from Republican to Democrat. North Stonington Republican Diana Urban, elected to a fourth term two weeks ago, often voted with Democrats in the legislature. Her departure from the ranks of the GOP reduces their number to 44 of 151.

Urban enjoyed a flurry of attention last summer when she launched a quixotic bid to run for the United States Senate as a petitioning candidate. She failed to collect the number of signatures required.

Why Urban waited until two weeks after the election to tell the voters of her district that she would no longer be a Republican is a question members of the GOP will be posing to Urban. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

Henry Kissinger commenting on Iraq and Charlie Rangel proposing a draft -- it's inevitable the Vietnam comparisons resurface:

MSNBC's Shuster: "Even though Vietnam brought down a presidency and Iraq has already cost the president's party control of Congress, the change of course in Iraq remains a subject of debate. The war, however, drags on, and like Vietnam one generation ago, there does not appear to be an end in sight" ("Hardball," 11/20).

CNN's Schneider: "Has Iraq become another Vietnam? Most Americans say it has. What does that mean? It means people don't think the United States is winning. It means most Americans don't believe the U.S. will win" ("Situation Room," 11/20).

FNC's Garrett: "House Democratic leaders wanted no part of colleague Charles Rangel's push to reinstate the draft" ("Special Report," 11/20).

Rangel, on the draft: "I'm saying it's unfair just to have the same troops going over, over and over. We've got about 150,000 troops over there, one-third of our National Guard. You don't believe that the National Guard's people should be going over there two or three times" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/20).

More Rangel: "What I'm trying to do is to send a message that, when you say we need more troops, that you know where these troops are coming from. I'm trying to say that, if you believe that Osama bin Laden is a threat to the United States of America, and not oil, and not problems he's having, and not civil war, but a threat to us, then you have to say, everyone, put up something" ("AC 360," CNN, 11/20)..[EMILY GOODIN]

We're very good at predicting races. So we decided to save you all the hassle and predict the 2008 Senate showdown just a few years early. Could Dems have a good night or another great night?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Kudos to the Salt Lake Tribune for a colorful clip-n-save about the Democrats' strength in the West.

A factoid: in total House vote, Dems won in three Bush '04 states: CO, NV and NM

Anuzis had, in the past, supported a closed primary or caucus, types of contests which generally favor more conservative candidates because they disproportionately empower the party's activists. Sen. John McCain won Michigan's open primary in 2000, and Anuzis's work to change the rules was a major reason why McCain's allies in the state did not trust him. Assuming no one else files to run against him, Anuzis will be re-elected in 2/07 at the MI GOP convention in Grand Rapids. Squibs:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) appeared on "This Week":

Asked why people should support him instead of Rudy Giuliani: "My record. My record of being a conservative Republican, of knowledge on national security and defense issues. My advocacy for less government is the best government, and I think people should be judged on their record, but also their vision for the future of the country."

Asked if the pro-choice/pro-gay rights Giuliani can get the GOP nod: "I don't know. I know that he's an American hero. I know that Americans will never forget the magnificent job he did following 9/11, and I think he would be very favorably looked on by a lot of Americans."

Asked if he's pro-gay rights: "In the respect that I believe that the don't ask, don't tell policy is working in the military. I don't know how you view that. I do not believe that marriage between -- I believe in the sanctity and unique role of marriage between man and woman, but I certainly don't believe in discriminating against any American."

More: "I do not believe gay marriage should be legal, but I do believe that people ought to be able to enter into contracts, exchange powers of attorney, other ways that people who have relationship can enter into."

ABC's Stephanopoulos: "You threw your support behind Trent Lott to be Republican whip. He has said that homosexuality is a sin. Is that what you think?"

McCain: "I've never heard Trent Lott state that, but, no, that's not what I..."

Stephanopoulos: "That's not your position?"

McCain: "No."

Stephanopoulos: "You're for a constitutional amendment banning abortion, with some exceptions for life and rape and incest."

McCain: "Rape, incest and the life of the mother. Yes."

Stephanopoulos: "So is President Bush, yet that hasn't advanced in the six years he's been in office. What are you going to do to advance a constitutional amendment that President Bush hasn't done?"

McCain: "I don't think a constitutional amendment is probably going to take place, but I do believe that it's very likely or possible that the Supreme Court should -- could overturn Roe v. Wade, which would then return these decisions to the states, which I support."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- Missourinet: Skelton Rips Iraq Policy

Sayfie's Review -- Hasting In Line For Key House Role, Comes Under Fire

NhNewslinks.com -- Spokesman Says Lynch Won't Run For Senate

Quorum Report -- HC: What Delay Wrought

WisPolitics.com -- Newly Elected Governors Gather With Veteran Governors for Bipartisan Workshop

Capitol Fax -- Obama introduces “Deceptive Practices And Voter Intimidation Prevention Act Of 2006″

Peace?

There's a good chance that Saul Anuzis will be re-elected as chair of the Michigan Republican Party. And despite misgivings, Sen. John McCain’s team in the state will be happy.

Anuzis, the current chair, had been targeted for ouster by forces aligned with RNC nat’l committeeman Chuck Yob, who supports the candidacy of 3rd District GOP chair Dave DiShaw. Broadening out the picture, Anuzis is viewed as biased in favor of Gov. Mitt Romney by McCain’s supporters like Yob.

What began as a power play (or maybe, just another iteration of the McCain/Romney proxy fight) quickly turned into a rehash of historical grievances, circular firing squads, and even a heated debate about race and diversity.

It may have ended yesterday with two developments. Anuzis, in a letter, endorsed a semi-open primary. That’s a big concession to the McCain forces. And a key McCain ally endorsed Anuzis. That’s a big blow to DiShaw’s candidacy. He may soon withdraw.

Also, several other McCain poo-bahs in the state seem to…well… like Anuzis. They include Amb. Ron Weiser, who will play a major role on McCain’s presidential finance team. When he stepped down from his tenure as state party chair, he thanked Anuzis in a letter for “all that you did both in providing the leadership and hard work that was necessary to make our efforts successful.” Weiser’s letter wasn’t an endorsement, per se, but it undercut the argument that Anuzis’s tenure is widely viewed as a failure.

Earlier this week, Mike Cox, the highest-ranking Republican office-holder in the state and a likely ally of Sen. McCain’s, endorsed Anuzis. That put Cox at odds with Sec/State Terry Lynn Land, another McCain ally, who endorsed DiShaw. On Wednesday, in a letter to top Republicans in the state, Anuzis endorsed a presidential primary, where “any voter to cast their ballot for the Republican Presidential Nominee at their respective polling place as long as that voter chooses a designated Republican ballot at his or her ballot place. The same terms would be true for the Democrats. We do not support a closed primary or caucus system.” That’s a “semi open” primary in politese.

Anuzis had, in the past, supported a closed primary or caucus, types of contests which generally favor more conservative candidates because they disproportionately empower the party’s activists. . McCain won Michigan’s open primary in 2000, and Anuzis’s work to change the rules was a major reason why McCain’s allies in the state did not trust him.

Does the grassroots like Saul?. Never before has a state chair been so accessible to them. National conservative bloggers love him: the editor of the influential Red State blog, which has frequently published Anuzis’s commentaries, wrote that the attempt to “take over” the party was part of a larger effort to “to slay state Republican Chairmen who are not already loyal lieutenants in the McCain '08 Army.” [MARC AMBINDER]

This week on Hotline TV, we wonder if John McCain is the GOP's best hope, question whether Rudy can lug around all that baggage, and then unveil the Eight Great Wonders of the Campaign Trail 2006! Plus, as always, we'll race through the fastest two minutes in politics, only at HotlineTV.net.

Join us Monday for a special look at the nation's governor's races, and Tuesday for our Senate prediction show. Have fun campaigning this weekend.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

GOP consulting firms took quite a beating this cycle. However, a handful of media firms fared extremely well considering the overall outcome. What did it take to win in this tough political climate -- quality candidates, hard-hitting negative ads or just pure luck? The best of '06 reveals...

The Strategy Group for Media went 10-0 for its House races (10-1 overall), holding on to some top competitive seats for incumbents, including GOPers Steve Chabot (OH-01), Marilyn Musgrave (CO-04) and Pat Tiberi (OH-12). Its freshmen were: Reps.-elect David Davis (TN-01), Jim Jordan (OH-04) and Doug Lamborn (CO-05). In its 12th year of offering media services, the firm attributes the '06 successes to a solid group of candidates. Strategy Group for Media Sr. VP Brian Berry describes them as "absolute fighters who fit their districts." Moreover, the candidates were aware that they were the "local expert" of their CDs -- not the consultants -- and consequently became "fully engaged" in the decision making.

As for strategy, the firm followed "Politics 101" by not sitting and waiting to be defined by the opponent. The Strategy Group for Media hit the air well before Labor Day -- the earliest on record. Berry compares this cycle to the TV show "Survivor," where consultants had to use their past experience and cunning strategy and tactics to survive. They believe that a lot of political advertising fails to reach the heart of the voter. Berry: "If you lose their heart, you won't persuade their mind and move them to vote for your candidate." That's why they came out early and kept the message positive. [KATHERINE LEHR}

James Carville has been generating a wave of publicity in criticizing DNC Chair Howard Dean for not sufficiently funding competitive House races. He’s claimed the Democrats could have won another dozen seats if the DNC allocated more money in the campaign’s final weeks. The DNC has pushed back on Carville’s charges. Who’s right?

14 Democratic candidates lost by 2 points or less, but many of the campaigns were funded to the hilt by the DCCC. Lois Murphy certainly can’t blame her loss in PA 06 on inadequate funding; the DCCC spent over $3 million on her behalf. Patricia Madrid (NM 01) also had plenty of money – her razor-thin loss came because of an embarrassing gaffe at a debate. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Darcy Burner (WA 08), Phil Kellam (VA 02), Christine Jennings and Tammy Duckworth (IL 06) were all among the top-funded candidates by the DCCC. (In Jennings’ case, the money was funneled through the Florida Democratic party.)

And in some conservative districts, the DCCC strategically declined to spend money because they felt national advertising from Democrats would hurt their candidates. Gary Trauner, who narrowly lost to Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY AL), was the “victim” of such thinking.

That leaves 6 other races where more money could potentially have made a difference. Larry Kissell, who lost by less than 1 percent to Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC 08), certainly would have benefited from some cash; the DCCC didn’t give his campaign a dime. But it wasn’t a lack of DCCC funds, it was a lack of strategic foresight in this case.

Linda Stender did better-than-expected against Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-NJ 07), but the DCCC would have had to enter the extremely-costly New York media market. Without the benefit of Monday morning quarterbacking, would that have been a worthwhile investment?

The losing Democratic candidates that legitimately could have a beef are: Tessa Hafen (NV 03), Dan Maffei (NY 25), Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and Eric Massa (NY 29). These candidates ran in the type of third-tier races where the DCCC was only able to fund late. The New York environment was uniquely favorable this year, and another week of attack ads against Rep. Jim Walsh (R) perhaps could have brought him down.

Tessa Hafen was a late-emerging candidate who benefited from a mini-scandal surrounding Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV 03). An earlier investment here could have helped take Porter down. And, because of her historically Republican district, Rep. Jean Schmidt managed to avoid the September attacks that her Republican counterparts received at the hands of the DCCC.

There’s realistically only four – certainly no more than six seats – that perhaps could have been won with extra cash. Extra money could have made a small difference, but certainly not to the degree that Carville has been suggesting. Dean may have made strategic blunders in the past, but his fiscal responsibility here seems like the wiser course. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) has won election as NRCC chair.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) = 80 votes

Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) = 72 votes

Rep. Phil English (R-PA): = 32 votes

On the third ballot, Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL) was elected conference chair, defeating Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) by nine votes.

Here's how incoming min. whip Roy Blunt plans to do his job:

"Under this Republican leadership, the job of the Minority Whip will no longer be to go to the House floor every day and lose. Instead, each time we hold our team together and force the Democrats to vote like Democrats, we'll be taking one more step toward recapturing our majority in 2008."

The House Republican Conference has just elected Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) as their whip.

Per a Republican source, Rep. Boehner's margin of victory was 168 to 27.

The House Republican Conference has just elected Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) as their leader.

House GOPers will caucus at 8 a.m. today for their leadership elections. After a week of stating their conservative cases and strategies to their colleagues, candidates will vote by secret ballot until a majority is reached. A quick primer in order of the ballot:

Min. Leader: Consensus is that this is almost a sure thing for affable current Leader John Boehner (OH), especially since Rep. Joe Barton (TX) quit the race and threw his support behind him.

But Rep. Mike Pence (IN) has run hard advocating for bringing back conservative principles. In his speech to his colleagues 11/16, Pence said: "I am not running because I think John Boehner did a bad job as Majority Leader. Quite the contrary. I think the guy deserves a medal... I am running because I think I might just be the best man to lead this conference as Minority Leader. And the role of the Minority Leader is different from Majority Leader. Each demand different skills and each have different goals."

Hotline sources report the following members supporting Boehner: Alexander (LA), Baker (LA), Barrett (SC), Barton (TX), Biggert (IL), Boustany (LA), Brown (SC), Coble (NC), Diaz-Balart, M. (FL), Drake (VA), Gingrey (GA), Hastings (WA), Hoekstra (MI), Inglis (SC), Latham (IA), McCaul (TX), McKeon (CA), Mica (FL), Miller (CA), Porter (NV), Price (GA), King (NY), Regula (OH), Rehberg (MT), Rogers (MI), Royce (CA), Saxton (NJ), Shimkus (IL) and Tiberi (OH).

Hotline sources report the following members supporting Pence: Cannon (UT), Feeney (FL), Flake (AZ), Garrett (NJ), Hensarling (TX), King (IA), Tancredo (CO)

Minority Whip: Hotline calls show Whip Roy Blunt (MO) and Rep. John Shadegg (AZ) almost even in their race. Some members have suggested that House GOPers who don't pick the conservative Pence for maj. leader will pick his Republican Study Committee colleague Shadegg for whip to show that the party is still seeking change.

Rep. Eric Cantor (VA) insists he's backing Blunt, but this week's news has been dominated by a whisper campaign for Cantor's candidacy. Shadegg announced 11/16 via Roll Call that he will keep Cantor on as chief deputy Whip if elected. It's possible that someone could nominate Cantor from the floor this morning, which would damage Blunt the most in this race. But if Cantor is nominated from the floor, can he turn it down in favor of Blunt?

"The conference rules don’t contemplate such a scenario. In order to be considered a candidate, someone has to be nominated and seconded," said one GOP aide. "It is hard to imagine that happening to someone if they just don’t want it."

Hotline sources report the following members supporting Blunt: Boustany (LA), Brady (TX), Brown, Cantor (VA), Coble (NC), Diaz-Balart, M. (FL), Hastings (WA), Mica (FL), Price (GA), Royce (CA) and Shimkus (IL).

Hotline sources report the following members supporting Shadegg: Cannon (UT), Flake (AZ) , Gingrey (GA), Pickering (MS), Radanovich (CA), Renzi (AZ), Ryan (WI), Tancredo (CO).

With storms in the southeast, cable TV had a hurricane of coverage on the weather. But there was some political talk, particularly about the Dem House Leadership race:

CNN's Bash: "Democrats unanimously elected the first woman to speaker of the House -- but, with her victory, also a stinging defeat" ("AC 360," 11/16).

MSNBC's Shuster, on the maj. whip battle: "We can't find a single Democrat tonight who says that there is any lasting impact. They are saying that, yes, there were some strong arm tactics, perhaps even a little bit of backstabbing. But the damage does not appear to be permanent at all" ("Countdown," 11/16).

Incoming House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer, on Pelosi supporting Murtha: "Well, that was yesterday."

Asked about James Carville's comments on Howard Dean: "There is no time for bitterness. We have won a victory. But we have also won a responsibility. We have been given a responsibility by the American people to move this country forward, to move it in a new direction, to solve our problems. And that's what we're going to do" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/16).

Hoyer: "I don't know who is going be elected to the leadership tomorrow in the Republican Party, but I can tell you that John Boehner and I and Roy Blunt and I, in my position as minority whip have had good relationships. We, obviously, have disagreed, but we've had an ability to talk to one another."

Asked if Bush seemed to prefer Pelosi to him during their meeting: "No, no, no" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/16).

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), on Pelosi: "Her first power play was a very successful one. I know only controversy makes news, but we had a potential controversy between Rahm Emanuel, who did a great job as the Democratic Congressional Campaign chairman, and Jim Clyburn, our caucus chairman. She worked out a deal whereby Jim became the whip, the number three, an African-American very important in an elected leadership position, only the second time in history that's happened, and Rahm became caucus chair" ("NewsHour," PBS, 11/16).

Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA): "Nancy never backed off. When she was asked, 'Do you have any regrets?' She said, 'Absolutely not. Jack's my friend. I stuck with him.' And, you know, we respect that. I think all the members on both sides respect that. My guess is that she's going to emerge from this even stronger, and she'll be able to work with Steny very well" ("NewsHour," PBS, 11/16).

ON THE FLIP SIDE

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) played "Hardball" last night:

MSNBC's Matthews: "If you get a call from Karl Rove telling you guys to do something, what is your reaction?"

Blunt: "That depends on what it is" (MSNBC, 11/16).

AND ON TO '08

Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) was in the "Situation Room" and was asked about challenging Lamar Alexander in '08: "The last thing on my mind right now is another race."

More: "I'm going to spend some time over the next year still giving back, still active in my state. I hope to be involved with some of the large academic institutions."

Asked about the DNC chairmanship: "I think Governor Dean has done a good job. I'm not interested in taking the job" (CNN, 11/16).

And John Edwards continues his book tour and continues to get '08 questions.

Edwards: "I'll decide in the next few months" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/16). [EMILY GOODIN]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Roy Blunt Faces Challege Today To Hold On To Party Post

Sayfie's Review -- Times: Citizens May Seek Record Rate Hike

NhNewslinks.com -- Spokesman Says Lynch Won't Run For Senate

Quorum Report -- Delay Staff Walks Out On Sekula-Gibbs

WisPolitics.com -- DC Wrap: Kohl To Join Senate Banking Committee

Capitol Fax -- Another Rezko deal for Mrs. B

Soft-launching his 2008 presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) cast himself Thursday as the candidate who would restore “common sense conservatism” to the Republican Party and said Republicans could win back their Congressional majorities in 2008 by running on a platform of reform and limited government. And he insisted that the country could not take a “holiday from history” by shirking its responsibility to fight terrorists and stabilize Iraq.

In a heavily promoted, tightly crafted speech to an elite group of conservatives in Washington, McCain said Republicans lost elections last week because they placed "incumbency over our principles" and that Americans expected a government with integrity. He suggested the blame lay with the Republican Congress, though he did not distinguish between their conservatism and President Bush's. He did not refer to Bush during the speech.

Speaking of the party's future, McCain rejected and party litmus tests, calling instead for a “genuine contest of ideas” within the GOP to meet the challenges the country faces.

At the same time, he said that Americans properly rely on tradition and deeply-held values to guide them in their political choices. Balancing the two approaches, McCain said, would require a new “common sense conservatism.”

“To keep our nation prosperous, strong and growing we have to rethink, reform and reinvent: the way we educate our children; train our workers; deliver health care services; support retirees; fuel our transportation network; stimulate research and development; and harness new technologies,” McCain said. “Let that challenge be the new Republican calling.”

But Iraq remains the most potent challenge facing the country, as McCain acknowledged. An early supporter of the war and an early critic of Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld, McCain has urged President Bush to dispatch additional troops to Iraq as part of a last-ditch effort to secure the country. Thursday night, he said that “without additional combat forces, we will not win this war.”

That position does not resonate within the Republican caucus, and it brings him to the right of many of his potential presidential rivals, including Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA).

McCain’s advisers recognize that independents, a must-win general election consistency for him, voted in 2006 part to vent their frustration at the Bush Administration’s approach and at the unflagging optimism displayed by officials like Rumsfeld. Over the next few months, McCain hopes voters will associate him with the goals of the administration’s approach, rather than the “great many mistakes” he admits were made.

“History will hold us to account for them just as the voters did last week,” McCain said. But he added, “the situation in Iraq is dire. But I believe victory is still attainable. And I am certain that our defeat there would be a catastrophe, and not only for the United States.”

“It is not fair or easy to look a soldier in the eye and tell him he must shoulder a rifle again and risk his life in a third tour in Iraq,” he said. Only if America had the will to win, he said, would it not be "immoral." [MARC AMBINDER]

Only 7 GOP Senators hail from blue states, and four of them are up in 2008. We take a look at the most endangered of this rare and vanishing species.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

“White rednecks” who “didn’t show up to vote for us” partly cost GOPers their cong. majorities, Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL) told fellow Republicans today. And Putnam, seeking the post of GOP conference chair, chided ex-Chair J.C. Watts (R-OK) for ruining the conference’s ability to serve its members.

Three Republicans in the room independently confirmed to the Hotline the substance and context of Putnam’s remarks. But Putnam’s chief of staff insists that the remarks were taken out of context.

Examining the 2006 midterms, Putnam blamed the GOP defeat on “the independent vote, the women vote, the suburban vote.” He said that “heck, even the white rednecks who go to church on Sunday didn't come out to vote for us.”

Putnam used Watts’ tenure as chair to contrast his own vision for the conference, saying the GOP needed a “bolder” vision than the type of strategy preferred by Watts. According to one Republican’s notes, Putnam said that “JC Watts ruined the Conference by removing the member services functions that it offered until 1998” by turning it into only a communications and press vehicle. According to two Republicans, Putnam took the same swat at Watts during a Republican Study Conference session yesterday.

A Watts associate confirmed that he had learned of Putnam’s comments and that he was angered by them. Watts was not immediately available to comment.

Putnam’s chief of staff, John Hambel, said his boss has used the word “redneck” only in the context of sharing polling data from last week’s elections. Hambel said Putnam was listing off different constituencies and ended with saying: “Heck, we even had rednecks who go to church who didn't come out to vote.”

Earlier, and according to Hambel, not in the same context, Putnam suggested that Watts was a great communicator, but did not do enough for member services. He said Putnam believed that Watts was a “great communicator for the Republican party.”

"What he said was that when we were in the majority, J.C. Watts focused on communications and did not focus on member services,” said Hambel. “And in the minority, the conference, we need to focus more on member services.” Two ear-witnesses to this morning’s meeting say they did not remember Putnam praising Watts before he criticized him.

Putnam, the current chair of the Republican Policy Committee, is the House’s second-youngest member and an Episcopalian.

According to the Almanac of American Politics, Putnam represents a district that’s mostly urban and 72% white. His voting record is reliably conservative. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, Southern Democratic budget hawks like Phil Gramm casually referred to themselves as the “Redneck Caucus.”

Though some Southerners take “redneck” as term of endearment, it is not a word that Republicans generally use to describe part of their base. Putnam, a favorite of current Speaker Dennis Hastert and Maj. Leader John Boehner, is running for chair against Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Jack Kingston (R-GA) and Dan Lungren (R-CA). [SHIRA TOEPLITZ and MARC AMBINDER].

In the private Democratic conference meeting, Pelosi made a personal appeal for Murtha, arguing that his turn-around on the Iraq war made it possible for Democrats to win the elections.

When a smiling, ebulliant-sounding Pelosi introduced her new team, she admitted that Hoyer's victory was "stunning."

But, she said. "We've had our debate. We've had our disagremeents in that room. Now, that is over. As we say in church, let their be peace on earth and let it begin with us."

Hoyer and Pelosi extended their hands at the same moment, and Hoyer raised them in the air.

Murtha explained his defeat this way: "I didn't have the votes." As a consolation prize, he said he's just go back to "my small subcommittee that I have" -- referring to the defense appropriations committee, which isn't small and has more power than many full committees.

Details coming in today's Hotline which will be posted in minutes.

As James Carville continues his crusade to oust Howard Dean as DNC chair, DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel wants to concilliate.

According to sources in the DNC and DCCC, Emuanel called Dean this morning to distance himself from the tone and general tenor of Carville's remarks. In a short conversation, Emanuel acknowledged that he shared some of Carville's opinions about the DNC's priorities but said he did not share Carville's wish that Dean ought to be ousted as DNC chair.

Dean called Emanuel on election night, and the two had a friendly conversation, according to sources affiliated with both men.

When their schedules permit, Dean and Emanuel will meet privately to discuss their plans for the 2008 cycle. Both sides hope to reach, in advance, an understanding about how the Democratic party committees will fund state parties and candidate committees.

After the private meeting, the two will likely take their rapprochement public.

Meanwhile, current DNC member/ex-DNC chair Don Fowler e-mailed members of the DNC his response to Carville.

"Some ill-advised voices have suggested that, because of his 50-state strategy, Governor Dean should be replaced as Chair of the DNC," Fowler wrote in the e-mail.

"This is nonsense. The 50-state strategy is exactly what the Democratic Party needed and continues to need. Why do the Washington people think that they have a special prerogative to dictate what the Democratic Party needs? I hope that all DNC members will join me in rejecting this foolishness--from whatever source it came."

"Democrats won a great victory on November 7--control of the United States House of Representatives, control of the United States Senate, majority of Governors, and majority of state legislative bodies. Why should anyone want to mess with the team that won these remarkable results? Governor Dean deserves to continue as DNC Chair." [MARC AMBINDER]

An earlier post incorrectly insinuated that Rep. John Murtha's campaign has conceded the majority leader's race.

Murtha's campaign hasn't conceded.

The vote for majority leader hasn't yet occurred.

We regret leaving our readers with the impression that the race was decided before it was decided.

Can't wait two years to learn whether Democrats' majorities endure? Don't worry, Hotline senior editor John Mercurio has the 2008 election results right here.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Blunt Denies Link Of Resignation, Lawsuit

Sayfie's Review -- Republican Leads In Recount In Contested Florida Race

NhNewslinks.com -- A Win From The Blue

Quorum Report -- Texas Senators Move Up On GOP Food Chain

WisPolitics.com -- Tommy Thompson To Set Up Exploratory Committee For President

Capitol Fax -- 14 Vets Signed Up For Much-Hyped Program

House Dems meet this morning at 9am to decide the party's next majority leader. Current Dem Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) holds a big lead in public support -- he's got 91 votes compared with Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) 33. That still leaves almost 90 representatives -- enough to create a majority for either candidate -- uncommitted.

Although neither Hoyer nor Murtha have released public lists of supporters at this time, the following has been compiled from members independently announcing their support. [REID WILSON]

The election may be over but TV is enjoying cover the leadership races:

Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) played "Hardball" last night:

MSNBC's Matthews: "[Bush] invites Steny Hoyer down to the White House with Nancy Pelosi. Were they trying to set up Steny, your opponent, for this leadership post by bringing him down with her, or is that just protocol?"

Murtha: "No, I think that's just protocol."

Murtha, on Abscam: "I'll put this way. I had 24 percent unemployment, I was looking at investment. I told them I wanted an investment in my district, they put $50,000 out on the table. I said I'm not interested in that. I'm interested in investment. The Ethics Committee cleared me completely on a unanimous vote."

Asked why he didn't take the money: "What the hell, I'm not going to take cash from some Arab sheikhs. They weren't Arab sheikhs, they were FBI agents."

More: "They were the slimiest guys I've ever seen."

Asked why he didn't leave the room: "Well listen, they said they were going to invest in the district. We had 24 percent unemployment."

On his ethics comment: "I agree that we have to return a perception of honesty to the Congress. I agree with what Nancy's trying to do. The crap I'm talking about is the crap that people have violated the law, the kind of things that have happened with Abramoff. ... What I said was, it's total crap, the idea we have to deal with an issue like this, when ... we've got a war going on" (MSNBC, 11/15).

Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA), on Murtha's "total crap" ethics comment: "He doesn't like superficial stuff" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/15).

THE GOP RACE IS JUST AS EXCITING

Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) was in the "Situation Room":

Asked if he's supporting Pence in the min. leader race: "No, very careful about that. I said if we re-elect both of our existing leaders. I think that Mr. Boehner has probably the inside track. ... I think it is time for change. And if we're not going to change at the majority leader's level, to minority leader, then I think it is vital that we change at least one of the top two offices and tell the American people we got the message, we understand we lost focus on what they want us to be doing."

More: "I'm not supporting anybody in that race. I believe that race needs to be decided on its merits. I'm not running as a ticket with anybody on that race" (CNN, 11/15).

CNN's Crowley: "If Lott has neither forgiven nor forgotten, he's not talking. Comeback doesn't mean look back" ("Situation Room," 11/15).

FNC's Wilson: "During an earlier stint as whip and as majority leader, Lott was known as a gifted counter of noses and a talented maker of last minute political deals, gifts that could come in handy as the Republicans move from a game of offense to a defensive game where 41 unified Republican votes can essentially stop Democratic legislation cold" ("Special Report," 11/15).

LG Michael Steele (R-MD), on Lott: "I think, you know, again, that episode behind him. I think he asked for forgiveness and received it from the party and from the country. And I think he's going to make a good leader in the Senate."

Asked if he's forgiven him: "Absolutely. I mean, you know, you can't hold stuff like that against him. It was a birthday event, you know? The guy's sitting there in the chair. What are you going to say? You say nice things. You get caught up in the moment" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/15).

NOT HOLDING BACK

Bill Maher, on his "LKL" interview: "Larry kept pressing me about this issue, about gays and names. And I thought that well, you know, I'm a political junkie, probably like you are. And so, you know, in my writer's room, this is anything but news. And by the way, I'm not a million percent sure it's true. I mean, I never dated the guy. But I don't feel especially bad about if this happened to a Republican who is very much part and parcel of this administration, which has used gay issues so divisively. It's hugely hypocritical" ("Nightline," ABC, 11/15).

James Carville, on the DNC: "The DNC had a credit line of $10 million. They only drew down $4 million. That's $6 million. ... It is a cult of the DNC, not the candidates. I think this party ought to be focused. It is the candidates whose hearts are broken out there. It is the candidates and their families and their staffs who have been let down, because we left them hanging out there. ... They exercise this kind of timidity, when we could have picked up another 10 seats. ... The highest person in the Democratic Party are these candidates that go out and risk everything, who work their hearts out, who try to get elected. And they deserve every bit of support, financial and otherwise, that they can get. They got it from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. They got it from the Democratic Senatorial campaign Committee. They did not get from it the DNC."

On Dean: "I want the change -- and, if it's him, if he stays, fine. I want him to say, we are not going to be talking about parties and state chairmen. We're going to talk about candidates. We're going to let these good people know, when they come out and run under the Democratic line, that we are going to do everything we can to fund them, to stand by them" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/15). [EMILY GOODIN]

From Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX):

"Last week I indicated my interest in election to the House Republican leadership. I said that we have to be real Republicans again, driven by the power of the good ideas that we share with America's working families, if we are to regain their trust.

"People want more freedom and less government. They want to keep more of what they earn. They want to be healthy, they want to be protected from snooping, and they want to believe that their Congress is honest. If we stand with America, America will stand with us.

"Those are the reasons I joined the race for Republican leader and, as I leave the race, I do so confident in John Boehner's commitment to those goals. Because of that, I will join the majority of Republican members on Friday in voting for John to become our next leader.

"He not only has my vote, he has my confidence that he can unify the Republican Conference and bring us back to the majority by exercising the power of good ideas and great determination."

Sen. John McCain will formally open his 2008 presidential exploratory committee by tomorrow a.m., an adviser said today.

The committee has already built a website -- http://www.exploremccain.com/-- and it will stream live a speech McCain plans to give tomorrow about the future of the Republican Party. His live audience will be charter members of GOPAC, a conservative grassroots group with a strong and influential pedigree.

The FEC requires potential candidates to register within 10 days of beginning to test the waters. In an e-mail McCain sent to his political action committee membership list this afternoon, he called the committee "the first legal step" in his personal exploratory process.

Wrote McCain: "Over the past year, I have traveled the country campaigning with candidates running for local, state, and federal office and I've been constantly proud to stand with Republican candidates in supporting a secure homeland, fiscal responsibility, ethics in government, and common sense conservative principles. With the formation of John McCain 2008 - The Exploratory Committee, I will continue my conversation with the American people over the direction of the Republican Party and the future of our country."

More, from McCain's e-mail: "During the next couple of months, I will be talking with my family, friends and supporters about whether to officially announce a run for President; prior to that decision, the formation of this committee is the first legal step in that process. I hope that you will visit my new webpage, www.exploremccain.com, and join me in this effort."

"Our Party suffered an electoral setback last Tuesday, but that defeat was not a repudiation of our values and our beliefs; America remains a conservative country. Rather, the election results were an expression of frustration with Washington gridlock and Washington's lack of touch with real America. In 1994, American voters sent Republicans to Congress to change government; instead, we became government. This Thursday, November 16, I will give a major address on my vision for the Republican Party and how we will get back on the path to victory. Please join me at www.exploremccain.com to watch the speech live online at 7:10 PM. Thank you for your past support and encouragement and I look forward to continuing our efforts together to reform Washington and keep America safe at home and abroad."

Today, McCain endorsed Rep. John Shadegg's minority whip bid, and a key ally, Trent Lott, was elected to the number two position among Senate Republicans. Another McCain ally, Sen. Mel Martinez, was recommended by Pres. Bush to be RNC chair. [MARC AMBINDER]

From Roll Call:

Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.) told a group of Democratic moderates on Tuesday that an ethics and lobbying reform bill being pushed by party leaders was “total crap,” but said that he would work to enact the legislation because Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) supports it.

A few big-name GOP '08ers are out of the running after taking it on the chin last Tuesday. In their places, we track the rise of the GOP wildcards! These guys can't be serious, right?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

With 24 hours to go before House leadership elections, the race is boiling down to two main storylines.

The first involves a 26-year-old story that began to emerge once again yesterday: Rep. John Murtha's past. After being a little too involved in Abscam for his own good (some accounts have former Speaker Tip O'Neill personally bailing Murtha out of trouble) and what Washington Post's Marcus calls a "one-man earmarking factory," Murtha has a number of good gov't types on his case, including Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Gov't. The Hill even reports that, because of his penchant for doling out earmarks, some defense industry lobbyists hope he loses and retains his chairmanship, this time in the majority.

The second continues from 11/12, when Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi injected herself in the race. While her inital letter backing Murtha was initially seen as simple loyalty, but now, she's making phone calls and button-holing members for their support. Baltimore Sun's Hay Brown reports the speaker-in-waiting is playing hardball: She summoned Rep.-elect Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to her office to ask why Gillibrand was supporting current Dem whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD), and, completely coincidentally, asked for Gillibrand's committee preferences.

Pelosi's efforts have gotten attention throughout the caucus as, according to Hay Brown, Hoyer "fought to hang on to his support" 11/14. Uncommitted Rep.-elect Tim Walz (D-MN): "To be honest, I was waiting for the Speaker. When the Speaker speaks, you listen. I take that into heavy consideration" (Hearn, The Hill, 11/15).

According to Hotline vote-counting, Hoyer maintains a big lead, 90-32, in public support. But with approximately 117 votes needed to pull off the win (it wasn't immediately clear if some House candidates in contested elections would be allowed to vote), will the other 30 votes be there for Hoyer? Complete list of publicly committed members after the jump.

By the way, Pelosi did at least one good thing for caucus unity: She convinced Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) to drop her bid for Whip, leaving Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), currently the Dem caucus chair, a clear shot at the post. [REID WILSON]

An Open Memorandum to House Republicans

By Newt Gingrich
Posted Nov 15, 2006

RE: Reflections on being back in the minority and how to become a governing majority.

As we think about the 2006 election and where House Republicans go from here, I want to suggest a few principles and actions that might be helpful.

When I was first elected in 1978, House Republicans had been in the minority for 24 years. Despite our best efforts to win enough seats to gain the majority, it took us 16 more years. If we do not want to return to a possible 40 years in the minority, it is essential that we spend time now thinking about the lessons of 2006 and what has to be done. If we do this, we can accept 2006 as a corrective but necessary interruption in our pursuit of a governing majoritarian party.

In 1946 and 1952, the Democrats found themselves in the minority. On both occasions it only lasted two years. They found the methods to recover, even though in the second case they were operating under a very popular Republican President Eisenhower.

Rep. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs’ two-month stint in Washington is getting off to an inauspicious start. Roll Call’s Mary Ann Akers reports that all of Tom DeLay’s holdover staff walked out on her and immediately resigned their positions after she showed up in his old office.

Doesn’t look like she’s likely to make a return bid for the GOP nomination in ’08.

“Why don’t we, uh, unless you want to, thanks, talk to you later.”

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, on reporters’ questions about Sen. Trent Lott's past downfall from leadership.

“I think what we saw this morning is a very unified conference,”

Sen,. Kay Bailey Hutchinson after a 25 to 24 vote elected Lott as min whip.

"I look forward to doing a job that I always loved the most -- count the votes. And all Mitch is going to want me to do is count the magic 60 ... and I'll do my very best in that effort."

In reviewing the Republicans’ midterm losses, many commentators have criticized GOP’s hawkish, border-enforcement first stand. Some have argued that it cost them seats in Congress. And President Bush has hinted that, with the new Congress, one of his priorities is comprehensive immigration reform involving a guest-worker program.

But looking race-by-race, it’s not clear that talking tough on immigration put Republicans at a disadvantage.

The most-common races cited are the Scottsdale-based district held by Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ 05) and the open seat race to replace Rep. Jim Kolbe (R-AZ 08). In both those races, the Republicans focused their entire campaigns on immigration -- and it clearly backfired. But running a single-issue campaign is usually a risky proposition, regardless of the issue.

Each Republican also had other disadvantages. Graf was pictured on David Duke’s website and had a bare-bones campaign staff. Not long after winning the primary, the NRCC abandoned his campaign.

And Hayworth’s district was changing demographically, with more affluent newcomers arriving with a more culturally moderate perspective.

But candidates who used immigration as one of the many issues in their campaign repertoire performed quite well. Take Rep.-elect Peter Roskam in IL 06. Advocating lower taxes, talking tough on immigration and advocating a muscular foreign policy were the centerpieces of his successful campaign against Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth (D). Another open-seat winner in the Midwest, Michele Bachmann, used the same strategy.

Likewise, Rep. Steve Chabot’s (R-OH 01) focus on immigration proved successful. Against the odds, he defeated John Cranley in a tough statewide environment for Republicans. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA 06) aired an ad distancing himself from President Bush’s guest worker program. He was the only Philadelphia-area Republican to win.

And successful Democratic candidates often co-opted the border security issue from Republicans. Reps.-elect Heath Shuler, Baron Hill, and Brad Ellsworth all supported the House Republicans’ immigration bills.

Taking a hard-line on immigration wasn’t necessarily a winner in every district. But it was an important tool for Republicans facing tough races in many parts of the country, particularly in the suburbs. By only looking at Hayworth and Graf – both anomalous situations -- commentators and politicians could be drawing the wrong conclusions about the political ramifications of immigration. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

According to sources, the vote to elect Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) minority whip was 25 to 24.

Ex-Maj. Leader Trent Lott has won the Senate minority whip election, two GOP sources tell the Hotline.

Alex Castellanos is now officially aboard Team Romney. A Commonwealth PAC official confirms that Castellanos, always quick with a pro-Romney quote, has joined as an adviser. If Romney runs for President, Castellanos will likely serve as his chief media strategist. Castellanos is a principal at National Media, a native of Cuba and an adviser to presidents and senators. He joins a growing roster of Republican establishment heavyweights who've signed on to Romney's presidential explorations, including Barbara Comstock, Noam Neusner, Ron Kaufman and Tom Rath.

Sen. Evan Bayh is likely to form a presidential exploratory committee by the end of the year. Bayh meets today with the three new Democratic members of Congress from Indiana. He won't make a final decision on a race until after the holidays. (Hotline)

In our brand new Hotline/Diageo poll, in WH '08 matchups among RVs, John McCain leads Hillary Clinton 45%-40%; he leads Barack Obama 39%-35%; and he leads John Edwards 42%-35%. But a generic Dem leads a generic GOPer 40%-27%.

Keying off of this week's Rudy Giuliani exploratory festivus, here's a look the mayor's political kitchen cabinet:

--Anthony Carbonetti -- founding partner of Giuliani Partners; former CoS to Giuliani in NYC; would probably serve as campaign C.O.O.
--Chris Henick -- former dep. pol. dir at WH; now a senior pol. adviser to Giuliani; spoke to Giuliani on 9/11
--Peter Powers -- ex deputy mayor, listed on exploratory committee as director
--Anne Dickerson -- major GOP fundraiser; would likely serve as finance dir for pres. campaign
--Dennison Young, Jr. -- ex. chief counsel for Giuliani in NYC
--Sunny Mindel -- vice pres. at Giuliani Partners; chief spokeswoman for Giuliani
--John Avlon -- snr policy and communications adviser at Solutions America
--Bobby Burchfield, Jr -- counsel of record for exploratory committee
--John Gross -- campaign treasurer
--Matthew Mahoney -- vice pres. at Giuliani Partners; political aide
--Outside advisers: Michael Hess (ex corp. counsel for NYC, founding Giuliani Partner), Joe Lhota (ex dep. mayor for ops, NYC budget dir)

Squibs:

NY Gov. George Pataki (R) said he's not running for anything "yet" (AP).

Edwards, asked if he would like to announce anything: "I actually do have an announcement, just between us. If people go to my website, johnedwards.com, in the next few weeks, they may see something new and exciting" ("Daily Show").

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- AP: McCaskill Skips Senate Orientation For Vacation

Sayfie's Review -- Some In GOP Grumble Over Choice Of Martinez

NhNewslinks.com -- A Win From The Blue

Quorum Report -- Perry Seeks Review Of Two Lobbying Deals

WisPolitics.com -- Gard Alludes To Future Bid For Office In Final Campaign

Capitol Fax -- Minimum Wage Debate

A lot of focus last night on the situation in Iraq and the kidnappings there. On the politics side there was some leadership talk along with a side of WH '08:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), on the minority whip's race: "Many Democrats that were elected on Tuesday ran as Republicans, essentially, at home. They just said they were better than the Republican they were running against. The right kind of whip operation won't allow that to happen. When you look at any criticisms of leadership in the last few years, I don't think there's ever been one of how the majority whip's operation ran."

On reports he should step down and let Eric Cantor take the job: "I don't know about that. I know he's helping me win. He's running my campaign. He's a great friend of mine. I'm glad I brought him into the whip team as my deputy. I think Eric Cantor is going to be the whip in the House someday, maybe the speaker of the House someday. But right now we're working together to get this job done."

Asked if he'll be able to work with Pelosi: "We'll see" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/14).

CNN's Bash, on the GOP SEN leadership race: "There could be a surprise inside the Senate's Republican ranks. Four years after his own GOP colleagues forced him out as majority leader, Trent Lott is plotting a comeback, running to become the No. 2 Republican in the Senate" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 11/14).

FNC's Garrett: "Republican Senate sources tell Fox that they very much expect Lott to win that race. Returning to a leadership table that the White House pressured him out of several years back. If Lott wins, it will be a testament not only to his ability to count votes, but also a signal Republicans will be sending the Bush White House that they're no longer going to follow their lead in all matters" ("Special Report," 11/14).

ALL ABOUT '08

FNC's Colmes to John Edwards: "Everybody, of course, wants to know about your future ambitions."

Edwards: "Yes. I'm not sure everybody wants to know."

Colmes: "How can I ask the question to get a definite answer?"

Edwards: "Anyway you ask it you're going to get a maybe."

More Edwards: "Listen, I don't need to be cute about this. I'm very seriously thinking about running for president. I'll decide in the next few months. Probably the single most important factor for me personally is to make sure that my wife Elizabeth continues to do well health wise. And right now, knock on wood, you know, you know, she had breast cancer. She's doing great. She's cancer-free. So that all looks good."

Asked what he'll do if John Kerry runs: "It doesn't matter in my decision what other people do" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 11/14).

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), on WH '08: "It's possible at some time before the end of the year we'll have an exploratory committee to do some of the things that only an exploratory committee can do. But I wouldn't look to make a final decision or some sort of formal announcement until after the holidays. You're interested in this, I'm interested in this, some of your viewers are, my guess is that a majority of Americans would like a little rest from politics for the time being."

CNN's Blitzer: "Is Hillary Clinton, your colleague from New York State, too polarizing to be elected president from a Democrat's perspective?"

Bayh: "No, and I should make clear that I like Mrs. Clinton. But the question is, who maximizes our chances of being successful. Of course, she can win, but the question is who gives us the best chance."

Asked if he's suggesting that it's him: "No, I'm not. Perhaps that's a discussion for another day" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/14).

ONCE MORE WITH FEELING

Once again, "Scarborough Country" aired the portion of the "LKL" interview where Bill Maher made accusations against Ken Mehlman. After the clip aired, MSNBC's Scarborough: "We upset a lot of people when we ran that clip last
night. And some of Ken Mehlman's friends wanted us to know that Mehlman actually has denied being gay" (MSNBC, 11/14). [EMILY GOODIN]

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) dropped out of the Majority Whip race this evening leaving Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) as the only candidate running for that position. DeGette spokesperon Brandon MacGillis released this statement:

"With everything going on in the Caucus right now, Congresswoman DeGette did not want to add a divisive race for Majority Whip. So, for the good of the Caucus she has decided not to run."

For the GOP Leader race, Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Joe Barton (R-TX) sent out an e-mail to his colleagues this afternoon promising to balance the budget by FY 2009:

"A recommitment to our roots as the party of fiscal discipline is one of my strongest goals for our Conference. There is an opportunity for us to begin to do this immediately. In the Continuing Resolution we take up in December, we should include a provision requiring a balanced budget by fiscal year 2009. If the Congress fails to balance the budget by 2009, then in Fiscal 2010 all Federal spending other than Social Security, Medicare and interest on the National Debt shall be subject to review in order to balance the budget."

At the top of the ticket, Reps. Mike Pence and Joe Barton are still grabbing at the heels of current Majority Leader John Boehner, who seemed to have largely escape the blame for Republicans losing the majority last week. Even Pence has said that he views Boehner as the front-runner, arguing that if the election is viewed as a referendum on Boehner rather than renewing conservatives, Boehner will win. National Review opined that Boehner's case "deserves a hearing," while the more conservative Human Events online is ready to dump the current office-holders for reformers Pence and Shadegg.

Barton's mini-media blitz yesterday earned him a spot on MSNBC and an open column in Roll Call advertising his "majority back guarantee." But in in the numbers game, members' support goes unchecked because none of the candidates wants to be caught "doing a Blunt" -- or releasing public support lists before the secret ballot election. Though Pence can tout the endorsement of high profile conservatives like Tom Tancredo and fellow members on the Republican Study Committee, unless he or Barton gains momentum before Friday, Hotline sources say this race is Boehner's to lose.

Who doesn't love Eric Cantor? In addition to his broadcast communication skills, he's also "the kind of guy you want your sister to bring home," according to one senior GOP aide. Roll Call reports Cantor could have the brains, braun and support to be the next Republican Whip. But his loyalty to Blunt -- another one of his endearing qualities -- trumps his and/or his supporters ambitions.

The Draft Cantor movement might not materialize by Friday's secret ballot elections, but it's also indicative of one of the more competitive races on the leadership ballot. The Republican Whip race pits Blunt against Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) in an old vs. new school conservative match similar to the top of the ballot. But for Republicans who want some sense that they need a fresh conservative face, will a good showing by Boehner at the top of the ticket boost Shadegg's outsider status down the ballot?

For NRCC Chair, Rep. Pete Sessions can have bragging rights for being the only Republican to release a public support list with 47 names, including 19 signatures from home state Texas. Considered by many to be the most open race on the ballot, Hotline sources say there's no clear frontrunner between Sessions, Reps. Phil English and Tom Reynolds, and it's almost certain this race will head to a second round of voting.

For conference chair, Rep. Dan Lungren announced his bid in an already crowded field with Reps. Adam Putnam, Marsha Blackburn and Jack Kingston. No frontrunner in this race so far, though Kingston put his stump on YouTube yesterday (it's also scheduled to get time on CNN's "Situation Room" this afternoon) and Blackburn is pressing her sales pitch that she can craft the GOP message, even noting that her gender might help the GOP close the "widening gender gap" in last week's election.

And even further down the ballot... The only candidate for Conference Secretary Rep. John Carter (R-TX) has released a list of 113 public supporters.

House Republicans will vote by secret ballot 8am Friday down the ballot and ending with NRCC Chair. As always, candidates with the lowest vote totals are removed from the ballot until Republicans reach a majority on a candidate [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Democrats: Pelosi's Workin' It

Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi and political consiglieri Rep. George Miller spent the afternoon twisting the arms of colleagues who haven't expressed a majority leader preference yet. That Pelosi would be willing to stick her neck out for Rep. John Murtha astonishes many of her allies. A top union political official called it "amazing" and worried that Republicans might make Murtha an ethics poster boy the way Democrats did to ex-Rep. Tom DeLay.

Others wondered what would happen if Hoyer won... and whether Pelosi could best have shown her loyalty to Murtha and her fidelity to the smooth running of her caucus by simply staying out. Pelosi loyalists continue to insist that Murtha deserves the job and Rep. Steny Hoyer doesn't; that Murtha better represents the thrust of Democratic Party energy; that reports about Murtha's ethically challenged past and lobbyist-tied present are overwrought and incorrect; that incoming freshman need to know who's in charge. That last point unites critics and admirers of Pelosi. They see her endorsement as an experiment, of sorts, to test just how strong a hold she has over her caucus.

Today, Murtha unveiled the endorsement of ex-Sen. Max Cleland. Writes Cleland: "Congressman Murtha has proven time and again that he possesses the skills and acumen necessary to speak for our caucus."

And Hoyer distributed the names of 33 more Blue Dog Democratic supporters in the House.

Earlier, in response to New York Times and Washington Post articles questioning his ethics, Murtha complained about being "swift-boated."

And Hoyer, disturbed that the press seems to think there is daylight between him and Murtha on Iraq, said that "Any representation that Congressman Hoyer endorses a ‘stay-the-course’ strategy or advocates sending more troops to Iraq is wrong" and distributed joint letters to the president he and Pelosi, among others, signed.

Murtha's spokesman responded with a withering statement: ""Instead of uniting with our Minority Leader on Iraq, Steny Hoyer issued a statement one year ago in which he said that the Iraq policy proposed by Jack Murtha and supported by Leader Pelosi would have been disastrous to our national security." [MARC AMBINDER].

As Sen. Hillary Clinton reaches a final decision about a 2008 presidential run, her political team will shutter her re-election campaign’s seven regional field offices tomorrow and terminate the employment of back-end operational staff in New York and Washington, D.C.

But core and long-serving staff members from the campaign, Friends of Hillary, and Clinton’s HillPAC, have been told that they will keep their jobs until at least Dec. 31, a sign that Clinton plans to open a presidential exploratory campaign account shortly after the turn of the year.

It is common for campaigns to take several months to close their books, but the size of Clinton contingent that will remain on the payroll, as well as the hints they've received about employment beyond the new year, suggests that behind-the-scenes planning for a fully fledged presidential campaign has begun.

All it awaits is a formal decision from Clinton herself.

Her top donors have been told to expect a private signal as early as December. If that timetable is correct – and no one who knows for sure is talking – Clinton could push "go" over the Thanksgiving holidays. Long-time allies of the Clintons would expect to see public trial balloons floated as early as the first week in December.

The noose-tight upper echelon of Clinton’s political team countenances no speculation about who will serve as campaign manager, but the first among equals in her next campaign will likely be Patti Solis Doyle. Longtime Clinton associate Maggie Williams is also participating in informal interviews with potential senior staff. [MARC AMBINDER]

It's notoriously hard to measure the effect bloggers have on events in DC. While the netroots receive no arguments when claiming they defeated Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-CT) in 8/06, it's less clear (outside of Dan Rather) how many scalps righty bloggers can claim. They played roles in Sen. Trent Lott's (R-MS) exit from leadership as well as the withdrawal of WH counsel Harriet Miers nomination to SCOTUS. The frosty reception for Sen. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) RNC chair nomination has set up another Blogger vs. Beltway battle. Can the blogging base of the GOP send the WH another message?

RNC: Kos To Lead "Martinez For Chairman" Campaign

Sen. Mel Martinez's nomination to RNC chair is sparking outrage in the righty blogosphere. RedState's Thomas claims "a lobotomized sea lion" could do a better job, but the line most picked up throughout the right 'sphere belonged to RedState commenter spainishirish who described Martinez as "The Harriet Miers of RNC chairs."

Both Hot Air and RedState have polls up showing readers overwhelmingly against the Martinez nomination. Other negative righty reax include:

• Right Angle Blog's Robert Bluey writes: "GOP Overtly Panders to Hispanics"


• Right Wing News reports: "I talked to more than a half dozen bloggers and congressional aides tonight about the selection of Martinez and there was not one soul who was the slightest bit enthusiastic about his selection."


• National Review Online's Kathryn Jean Lopez shares: "The reaction I've heard most often today in response to? "I don't get it."


• Michelle Malkin reminds readers of Martinez's position on immigration and pleads with GOP state chairman to reject the nomination in Jan.

Even DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas chimes in: "This is good for us. ... Republicans think this will make Latinos -- the widest-swinging swing voters today -- more receptive to the GOP. But given he's Cuban, there's a wide culture gap between them and most other Latinos. We're not culturally homogenous. And politically, Cubans have more in common with Vietnamese immigrants than they do other Latino groups."

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

Who won the election for Democrats last week? Apportion a large measure of credit to the national environment and to Republican mistakes. Give the Democratic grassroots, who cultivated candidates, knocked on doors and raised money for people and causes ignored (at first) by the national party. Certainly, Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer deserve their accolades.

And then there’s Howard Dean, the unorthodox, insurgent chairman of the Democratic Party. For more than a year, many of the party’s familiarly named strategists, consultants and hangers-on have been convinced that Dean wanted to shape the national committee as a counterweight to the party committees. So if party committees get credit for the victory, Dean should get none, right?

Wrong. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- Senate Teamwork: Bond and McCaskill Will Be A Great Team For St. Louis

Sayfie's Review -- Congress Race Goes To Court

NhNewslinks.com -- Dem Leader Wants Vote Change Straight Away

Quorum Report -- Strategists Paved The Way For Dallas Democrats

WisPolitics.com -- Election Drew Near Record Voter Numbers

Capitol Fax -- Rezko Ad Gutierrez In Land Deal

Not long ago, Rep. John Murtha personified the “Blue Dog” Democrat persona. A culturally conservative Democrat with close ties to the military establishment, he’s the spitting image of a Fightin’ Dem. Representing the sprawling, working-class terrain of rural Southwest Pennsylvania, he has fought for defense interests while tracking a generous share of federal funds to his district.

One would think that most newly-elected moderates from the heartland would look to him as their favored candidate for Majority Leader. But instead, they’re backing Rep. Steny Hoyer, hailing from the cosmopolitan suburbs of Washington, DC.

Hoyer has publicly gotten the support of nearly every Democrat who won in Republican districts. Meanwhile, Murtha has support from incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi, liberal lion George Miller, and hopes to win over much of the left-leaning California delegation. What gives?

Since calling for the withdrawal of U.S. troops in January, Murtha has effectively transformed himself from a backroom dealer who rarely sought the limelight to one of the most public, antiwar faces of the Democratic party. He’s muted his opposition to abortion rights and support of gun control while speaking more bluntly about getting out of Iraq.

Murtha was one of the Democrats’ top campaigners this cycle, but Hoyer played a more active role in recruiting. From the beginning of the cycle, he spent PAC money on promising prospects, and campaigned in over 60 districts. He was one of Rep.-elect Brad Ellsworth’s biggest backers, helping convince him to run against Rep. John Hostettler.

The reticence of most heartland Democrats, at least publicly, to back Murtha indicates the political winds haven’t changed too much. A spokesman for a prominent conservative freshman Democrat summed up his boss’ support for Hoyer in one word: “Iraq.” The Iraq war has grown unpopular, but a call for immediate withdrawal still doesn’t play in Republican-leaning districts.

Murtha’s trying to lead the pack, but the Blue Dogs seem to be going a different way. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Lots of talk on the House leadership race last night:

FNC's Garrett: "Murtha wants to make this a race on Iraq and nothing else. But Hoyer has that based covered, at least partially. California's Maxine Waters backs Hoyer and she leads the 70 plus member Out Of Iraq House Caucus" ("Special Report," 11/13).

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) on the Pelosi endorsement of Murtha: "Nancy is a very close friend of Jack's and he was her campaign manager when she was elected Whip and she gave me a heads up on this, said she was going to do this so this did not come as a surprise and very frankly I joined her in saying that I expect Jack Murtha to continue to be a leader on this very, very important issue of Iraq in the future. But I am going to be the majority leader."

On differences between him and Pelosi: "I think much is made of the conflict that frankly both Nancy and I say does not exist. Are the differences of opinion from time to time? Certainly, there are. But Nancy had differences with Dick Gephardt. She had a close, very effective working relationship with him and we'll continue that" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/13).

Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA): "I certainly think that our leadership, led by Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer, with a big assist from Rahm Emanuel, who got us back into the majority, have led us to that position and will continue to do so" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/13).

Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA), on Murtha: "Jack was the first one in the center of the caucus who came out and said we, have to move. Guys like me who were against the war from the very start were waiting until somebody emerged. ... And he is a uniter. He brought the country together in this election and got them to vote out the Republican Congress because they were rubber stamping this war in Iraq. Without Jack, we would not be in power today" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/13).

Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY): "I think Steny Hoyer has done a good job. Unless there's reasons why he should be denied the opportunity, I think he deserves support" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 11/13).

HE'S THINKING

Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist was on "Hannity & Colmes":

Asked if he regrets his decision not to run again: "No. You know, it's right for me."

Asked if he'll be forming an exploratory cmte: "Everybody is moving very quickly, and I think for good reason. Right now, we have big issues out there, things like health care and entitlement reform, the war on terror itself, reducing our dependence on energy."

Asked again: "I'll go back home. I'll think about it" (FNC, 11/13).

JUST SO YOU KNOW

Ex-Pres. Bush was on "On the Record" along with Barbara Bush. He was not asked about the new team of advisers at the WH.

"Scarborough Country" aired the "LKL" interview with Bill Maher, in which Maher made personal charges about members of the GOP. That section of the interview was cut out of the "LKL" rebroadcast and from the transcript. MSNBC's Scarborough: "That's prompted some fans to wonder whether he was pressured by the RNC or possibly higher-ups at HBO." More Scarborough: "Bill Maher would never out, let's say, a Democratic congressman or senator that's gay" (MSNBC, 11/13).

Tonight, associates of Rudy Giuliani released two statements in response to reports that the former New York City mayor had established a New York state committee to explore a presidential run.

Rudy has traveled the country campaigning tirelessly on behalf of Republican candidates and has had the opportunity to speak with Americans on a wide variety of issues. They have been encouraging him to run for President, and this filing affords him the opportunity to raise money and put together an organization to assist him in making his decision.

And from committee treasurer John Gross:

Mayor Giuliani has not made a decision yet. With the filing of this document, we have taken the necessary legal steps so an organization can be put in place and money can be raised to explore a possible presidential run in 2008.

The FEC considers his New York committee a "testing the waters" committee.

So what equipment can Rudy use to test the waters? What proportion of his leg can he dip in? According to the FEC, he can poll, pay for telephone calls, pay for travel for himself and his staff, hire staff for specific "testing the waters" activities, keep a databse of potential donors and supporters, pay for office space, stationary, biographical brochures, and raise money ONLY FOR THE PURPOSES OF said waters testing.

What you can't do: advertise your candidacy, raise money in order to transfer it to a real presidential candidate, refer to yourself as a real candidate, raise money to get your name on a ballot... and spend too much time testing the waters.

A 1986 committee run by associates of Pat Roberston used test-in-the-waters money to accumulate $2.4 million for his real presidential bid. So Mr. Giuliani will have to be careful. [MARC AMBINDER]

Election season isn't done yet, as Dems have to decide which leader to follow. Will it be Hoyer or Murtha?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

In the contest between Joe Courtney (D) and Rep. Rob Simmons, new results are in:

So far today, Simmons (R) has picked up 105 votes. The gap is now about 60 votes with many more towns to compete and report. Spirits in the Simmons camp are high (Hotline sources).

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced her support for Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) Maj Leader campaign last p.m. In a letter, Pelosi writes: "I salute your courageous leadership that changed the national debate and helped make Iraq the central issue of this historic election."

According to various media accounts and Hotline sources, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) leads the race with 39 public commitments to Murtha's 15. Neither camp has released a public list of supporters. To see Pelosi's full letter backing Murtha and a list of members who have publicly declared their support, skip past the jump.

Meanwhile, Pelosi put the kibosh on Rep. Jane Harman's (D-CA) hopes of chairing the Intel cmte, meaning that Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) is the next-most senior Dem in line to take the chair. The move, according to Washington Post's Weisman, is a decision "pregnant with personal animus."

On the GOP side, Energy and Commerce Cmte chair Joe Barton (R-TX) declared he would be a candidate for House Min Leader and will hold a presser just after noon today to discuss his bid. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), meanwhile, gets the star treatment from the Wall Street Journal, the Weekly Standard and the blogosphere (see today's Blogometer for more on that), though current Maj Leader John Boehner (R-OH), say many, remains the favorite.

In the Whip race, Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) seems to be the crowd favorite, while Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) may find his defense of earmarks last week an albatross. Still, says Bob Novak, the conventional wisdom remains that while Shadegg and Pence are close allies, "at best, only one of them can win."

The race for NRCC chair is getting crowded, as Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) announced his candidacy today, joining Reps. Tom Cole (R-OK) and Phil English (R-PA), both of whom announced 11/10.

And maybe those LG Michael Steele for RNC chair rumors aren't so far-fetched. Steele, 11/12 on C-SPAN: "We're looking at it but haven't had any serious conversations as of yet." Asked if he's interested in the job: "I think I would be, after going through what I went through in the last election, trying to out-move, out-run the tsunami that came on Tuesday." Steele also appeared on CNN's "American Morning" this a.m. [REID WILSON]

In Iowa, the GOP suddenly seems divided. The Quad-City Times reports that "Defeated and divided" GOPers chose their leaders 11/10 "after a walkout by a disgruntled group of conservatives." Before re-electing Sen. Mary Lundby (R-Marion) as their leader, 8 GOPers "walked out of the session." Sen. Paul McKinley, who initiated the walkout: “We took an unusual beating in this last election and we must change direction...We believe we must get back to the principles that brought Republicans to the forefront 20 years ago when Ronald Reagan ran." He said he's "waiting" for the GOPers who left to return.

Meanwhile, for IA Dems organizing the '08 caucuses, Gov. Tom Vilsack's presidential bid adds extra pressure. The Omaha World-Herald's Ahlin writes that although "most" IA political analysts believe Vilsack "will have an edge" in the caucuses, "some say it's too soon to count out a competitve" Dem contest. Ex-IA Dem Party Chair Gordon Fischer said Vilsack "has a much tougher road" than Sen. Tom Harkin faced in '92 when he "successfully drove" Dem competition away from IA. Dems who have already visited IA this year include : ex-Sen. John Edwards (NC), ex-Sen. John Kerry (MA) and Sen. Barack Obama (IL). Vilsack spokesperson Jeff Link said Vilsack's "not taking anything for granted."

Squibs:

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- Senate Teamwork: Bond and McCaskill Will Be A Great Team For St. Louis

Sayfie's Review -- 'Maestro' Fashioned Crist Win

NhNewslinks.com -- Pelosi Endorses Murtha As Next Majority Leader

Quorum Report -- With Election Over, Democrats' Real Battle Begins

WisPolitics.com -- Feingold Says Not Right Time To Run For Prez.

Capitol Fax -- Bill Brady Attacks Conspiracy Theory As "Lunacy"

Hartford Courant's Kevin Rennie writes:

To Connecticut Republicans, it seems like Rudy Giuliani is always there in a crisis. Republican Rob Simmons was happy on Friday to receive $5,000 from Giuliani’s Solutions America to help pay recount costs. The Giuliani contribution has engendered much goodwill and stands out as the only one received so far by the Simmons campaign from a potential presidential candidate. Simmons fell 167 votes behind Democrat Joe Courtney out of the 240,000 votes cast in the Democratic district. Most towns in the sprawling district will recount their votes on Monday. The process will be completed by Wednesday afternoon.

Republicans and Democrats from DC have descended on the district to instruct partisans and monitor developments. As of Friday, however, Simmons had still heard nothing from Republican Governor M. Jodi Rell, re-elected in a landslide without coattails on Tuesday. Simmons was never a favorite of the Rowland-Rell administration, but most governors would have offered a word of encouragement and some troops as soon as a recount became inevitable.

Recriminations will have to wait until Thursday.

Election's over. Time to start thinking about 2008! First up, who had the best night on Tuesday?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

On Monday, the following vision document will be delivered to House Republicans by staffers for Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN):

Pence lays out how he'd draw contrasts with Democrats and work to regain the party's majority.

Excerpts: "It is important for you to know that as your Leader, you will have my ear. Leading is listening to the entire Conference and shaping a unified message and agenda for us to act upon, and I will do exactly that."

"We need leaders traveling to support our candidates and campaigns. But we do not just need leaders in the air - we need leaders on the air. It is important that our Leadership and every single Member be on the public airwaves, articulating our message, and encouraging by example the entire Conference to follow suit.

"Our duty in the Minority is to communicate a forceful vision of limited government, traditional values and reform that will propel our party back into the Majority in 2008."

"Whether it be discharge petitions, extensive use of the unfunded mandates and earmark reform rules, vote-a-ramas, timely motions to adjourn, and filibusters by amendment during the appropriations season, rest assured our Minority will confront."

"It is important to get one last thing straight. As your leader, I will not encourage you to use negative personal attacks on the floor or in your campaigns."

The full release is after the jump.

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Not a day too soon, ActBlue.com jumps into the '08 field with its newest fundraising tool. The Democratic online fundraising giant met with the FEC this week to get their latest project approved: Setting up fundraising accounts for potential 2008 presidential candidates.

Let's say someone, for example Stephen Colbert, was considering a run for President, but was wary of the fundraising bar. ActBlue has the go ahead from the FEC to let its users set up a fundraising pages for "Draft Colbert" or other prospective candidates. So when ActBlue donors raise the millions Colbert thought he couldn't raise himself, he can take that seed money with him to start his campaign for El Presidente.

But let's say Colbert ignores all of those donors because he wants to keep his job at Comedy Central. If he doesn't get in the race by the DNC Convention, all of the raised funds go straight to the DNC.

The tool is scheduled to launch in the next few months [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) officially announces for Min. Leader:

"Last week I indicated my interest in election to the Republican leadership and proposed that our next leader possess a strong commitment to tax cuts, a balanced budget, health care, privacy, ethics and grace in our dealings with one another.

"Republicans cannot simply be Democrats-lite. We have to be real Republicans again, driven by the power of the good ideas that we share with America's working families. People want more freedom and less government. They want to keep more of what they earn. They want to be healthy, they want to be protected from snooping, and they want to believe that their Congress is honest. If we stand with America, America will stand with us.

"After prayerful consideration and literally hundreds of discussions with my colleagues, I have decided to seek the position of Republican leader. My guarantee is this: We will achieve a net gain of seats in each upcoming election cycle and if we do not regain the majority within three election cycles, I will not seek the position of minority leader in the succeeding session.

"Our leadership election must be the triumph of good ideas and the first step down a short road to a new, dynamic Republican majority. That is my commitment to every Republican."

The contrast between blogger reaction to their respective parties' cong. leadership races says more about human reaction to winning and losing than it does about contrast in styles between the left and right. DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas and MyDD's contributors are taking a hands-off approach to the House maj. leader race (although it is quite clear their readership is heavily pro-Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). Righty bloggers, on the other hand (with RedState in the lead) can't tell everybody often enough how strongly they endorse Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) for min. leader and Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) for whip. Will the netroots' ambivalence continue when the Senate starts handing out cmte chairs?

DEM LEADERSHIP: My Name's Paul, And This Is Between Y'all

The netroots' heavy hitters are being noticeably coy about the maj. leader race between Reps. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and John Murtha (D-PA). DailyKos' founder Markos Moulitsas tells readers he is "going to take a close look at both candidacies, and all of us should do the same." MyDD's Chris Bowers is "open-minded about this race." Kos does ad though: "One thing to note -- Hoyer has clashed repeatedly with Pelosi the past few years. Murtha is a Pelosi loyalist. I don't feel like dealing with years of "divided Democrats" stories because a Majority Leader Hoyer is constantly undercutting Speaker Pelosi."

Daily Kos and MyDD readers were distinctly less undecided. A Daily Kos poll had Murtha up 83%-16%, and Murtha also led at MyDD's poll 69%-14%.

GOP LEADERSHIP: We Get It, They Want The New Guys

In stark contrast to their lefty brethren, RedState wants to make it extra crispy clear that they endorse Reps. Mike Pence (R-IN) and John Shadegg (R-AZ) in their respective races for minority leader and whip: "Today we would like to make it explicitly clear and reiterate that while we respect Representatives Blunt, Boehnor, and Cantor, we believe a fresh start is in order. We also believe there is no better place to turn than the Guardians of the Reagan Legacy and the 1994 Conservative Revolution."
RedState's Erick Erickson also explains how one has "to feel sorry for John Boehner to some degree" and later pleads with Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) not to enter the whip race.

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

Call it the tale of two Nancys. One, Nancy Pelosi, is a San Francisco liberal who rode a fervent anti-Bush wave this week to achieve her dream of capturing the House and, presumably, the Speaker's gavel. The other, Nancy Boyda, is a moderate Dem who this week captured the same rural House district in KS that handed Pres. Bush a 20-point victory two years ago. Pelosi and Boyda will have to work together in the new Democratic-led House, their agendas both confluent and conflicting. And as John Mercurio writes, it's freshman Dems like Boyda, and Pelosi's response to them, that will largely determine whether their party's reign on Capitol Hill endures.

Per the New Republic's Ryan Lizza?

Some big name Democrats want to oust DNC Chairman Howard Dean, arguing that his stubborn commitment to the 50-state strategy and his stinginess with funds for House races cost the Democrats several pickup opportunities.

The candidate being floated to replace Dean? Harold Ford.

Says James Carville, one of the anti-Deaniacs, "Suppose Harold Ford became chairman of the DNC? How much more money do you think we could raise? Just think of the difference it could make in one day. Now probably Harold Ford wants to stay in Tennessee. I just appointed myself his campaign manager."

Our take: whatever the merits of Dean's approach to the job, it's hard to imagine that the DNC membership likes him less after this election.

Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) sent his VolPAC e-mail list an election post-mortem, calling Tuesday a "rough night" for all. Frist is "up off the canvass" and wants conservatives to "get back to work." TN's election of Bob Corker "was a breakwater against the tide." Corker is a "genuine article" -- a "conservative Tennessean, a family man" and a "man of principles." Frist urges the party to take "a closer look" at the "success in Tennessee." In re, the election, Frist says that the "one glaring data point" is "the need for a clearly defined strategy in Iraq." And Frist is "confident that" incoming Sec/Def Gates will "bring a need, fresh perspective" to the situation. Frist says that the "accomplishments of the 109th Congress could simply not break through" and "we were not able to communicate clearly the principles for which we stand: smaller federal government, fiscal discipline, lower taxes and a strong and vigorous national defense." Frist says he'll send his VolPAC list "a detailed survey which I ask that you complete. Your answers to this survey are important and I promise to share your insights with my Republican colleagues. Republicans at every level of government need to reconnect with voters and we need to listen. So please share your thoughts on my blog today and when I send you the survey I ask that you also take the time to complete it."

Pfeiffer: "The lesson of this election is clear -- we won by turning the Red states of the Heartland Blue. Indiana, which has voted for the Republicans in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections, sent three new Democrats to Congress. This is not an accident. Evan Bayh has developed a formula for winning under the most difficult of circumstances. He is fiscally responsible, tough on national security, shares the values of middle class families, and values progress over partisanship." More Pfeiffer: "Of the 29 House seats that the Democrats picked up, 10 came from the Midwest.

Pfeiffer notes that Bayh contributed $270K to 350 candidates and committees this cycle and deployed 50 trained staff members to IN, IA, NH, NV and SC.

Pfeiffer quotes Bayh's interview to the AP, where Bayh said he would "wait until after the holidays to make an announcement" about the presidential race. In the meantime, he'll travel to NH and IA before end of the year (e-mail, 11/10)

The chairmen of the Republican National Committee during the Bush era -- Marc Racicot, Ed Gillespie and Ken Mehlman -- all worked to professionalize the party, turning it into a fearsome campaign machine for Republican candidates and the biggest, most efficient vendor -- a Wal-Mart of sorts -- for Bush politics.

Of the three chairs, Mehlman was the most influential; he had the president's ear; he was the closest and most trusted associate of Karl Rove's. Mehlman was Rove's protégé but became his equal. Mehlman had the latitude to make decisions with which Rove might ultimately (but rarely did) disagree.

During his tenure, the RNC raised a record amount of money. It perfected the finest voter database in the world. It reformed its internal financial and accounting practices. Mehlman kept himself in good stead with all the RNC's clients, from the White House to the Congressional leadership to interest group stakeholders, to donors, and the media, Old and New.

The balancing act was precarious at times. In a cycle when Republican candidates jumped over each other to distance themselves from Pres. Bush, tensions (and tempers) occasionally flared between the NRCC and the RNC, for example, and between the RNC and various campaigns. But Mehlman kept the ship together, the only visible signs of stress being the growing bags under his eyes. He played hardball; at one point, he called a Senate candidate in a tight race and told him that unless he righted his campaign, the RNC would pull money out of the state.

And when George Allen discovered he was Jewish, Mehlman called to welcome him to the tribe, joked with him about attending a bris, and then advised him about how to refocus his campaign.

Under Mehlman's wing, the RNC was unideological and stressed competence. He meshed politics with policy; Mehlman’s role as a policy adviser to Congressional Republicans is overlooked. He was the only non member regularly invited to leadership meetings and policy lunches.

The locus of Mehlman's conservatism was Ronald Reagan; He worked for the campaign as a 14 year old volunteer in 1980. He took a keen interest in environmental law early in his career. He has told friends that the primary reason he considers himself a Republican in this historical era is because the President and the party articulated the best and most compelling policies to fight global terrorism. He's a free minds, free markets guy. He loves the idea of an ownership society (health savings accounts, personal retirement accounts).

He is pro-life, a strong believer in the principle that unelected judges should not subvert the deep cultural principles held by the majority, but opposes discrimination against gay people and has many gay friends. (His refusal to answer questions about his sexual orientation led to incorrect speculation that he is gay, which amused many of his long-time friends and, as Mehlman once acknowledged, crimped his social life.) Mehlman considers himself a civil rights Republican.

Mehlman had two personal goals as chair. One was to continue and speed up the technological transformation of the party, a resounding success. The other was to broaden the party's base.

"We rely too much on white guys for our vote," Mehlman told reporters yesterday. He professed to be thrilled at the 24% percent of the African American vote won in California by Arnold Schwarzenegger. He admitted he was a little concerned by the party's poor showing among Latinos this cycle, down several percentage points from 2002.

During the party's internal debate over immigration, he did not hide his distaste for rhetoric and policies that he found divisive. He recruited several African American candidates for statewide office and spent more than half of his time on the road at black and Latino voter outreach community events. His candidates did not win, and the conventional wisdom, correct or not, is that the Republican brand has not improved in the minds of African American voters.

After Mehlman?

Michael Steele, Maria Cino and Mary Matalin have been floated as replacements. Cino and Matalin are official floats; Steele is being pushed by some state party leaders.

The GOP's social conservative base may object to Matalin and Cino because both want to open the GOP tent to gay people; both have spoken at Log Cabin Republican conventions.

At the same time, both have significant political experience. Before joining the cabinet, Cino was a deputy chair of the RNC and prior to that, the pol. dir for Bush's '00 election. Matalin is a whip-smart veteran of every major national Republican campaign since the early Clinton era. [MARC AMBINDER]

From a release:

WASHINGTON – The Club for Growth today endorsed Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) in the race to become Minority Leader in the House of Representatives. “The Republican Party has lost its brand, and the only way we can get it back is by returning to our principles of limited government, low taxes, and economic freedom. The American people still support this agenda, but Republicans failed to deliver. So we need to start a new chapter, and for that we need new faces and fresh ideas. Mike Pence is a gifted leader and communicator who is up to this challenge,” said Pat Toomey, President of the Club for Growth.

Toomey continued: “I served in Congress with Mike and I’ve watched him closely from outside Congress. I know that he is 100% committed to the common-sense conservative principles that won our majority in 1994. With his commitment and demonstrated ability to communicate with the American people, Mike can bring the Republican Conference back into the majority.”

Despite Republicans losing at least 28 seats in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, seven of the eight candidates whom the Club's PAC helped win their House primaries went on to win their general election races. This morning, Toomey wrote an opinion-editorial piece that is available at National Review Online about the challenges Republicans face after Tuesday’s elections.

House Democrats avoided a potentially combative and divisive leadership race today, as Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) decided to seek the post of caucus chair, rather than run for whip.

As of today, Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) is the favorite for the whip post, the third highest leadership post for the majority party. Rep. Diana DeGette (D-CO) is considering a bid.

Emanuel: "As the Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, I have spent the last twenty months committed to recruiting and electing candidates in every region of this country and helping bring unity to our party. Now, we have the responsibility to carry through on the commitment of change and progress we made to the American people. And I hope to help meet that responsibility as Chair of the Democratic Caucus, under the leadership of Speaker Pelosi. I seek this post, and not any other, because I believe what we need now is a unified Democratic caucus, focused squarely on the business of moving this country forward."

The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet writes that "Clyburn had been laying the groundwork for the position in the event of a Democratic takeover. He made his bid official on Wednesday. Clyburn is an African-American and is running for the whip post with the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus Emanuel realized that there was no need to set up what could have been an inflammatory confrontation with Clyburn and his backers in going after the Whip job."

Rep. John Larson (D-CT) is running with Emanuel to be vice chair of the caucus.

UPDATE: Since Emanuel and Larson announced their joint bid for Caucus Chair and Vice Chair, other members reported by Roll Call to be mulling the Vice Chair position have decided not to enter the race, including Reps. Mike Ross (D-AR) and Hilda Solis (D-CA).

Not unusually nasty, but....

From Bulletin News: .... ,

Pence is being assaulted by Boehner friends in emails to members. One suggested that while Pence has done a good job with the RSC, his staff is isn't up to the job and certainly not as able as those of past GOP leaders like Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey or Tom DeLay. Boehner's staff, some of which have worked for DeLay, generally get good grades. Said one anti-Pence email, Pence "is a nice man. And a conservative," but it went on to criticize his staff. "Boehner actually does not have great staff, but they have at lease run a committee before and know floor procedures and Boehner is tough," it continued. A Pence backer dismissed the charge, though, as a dirty campaign tactic.

The Pence team, meanwhile, found Boehner's announcement letter to be mighty similar to Pence's own.

Checking in with both the Pence and Boehner teams today, we find that neither are yet to ready to release lists of supporters. Both camps concede that members aren't committing as readily as they might once have. Both Boehner and Pence will have spoken to all 200 odd members of the GOP conference by the end of the week.

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK), a former chief of staff at the RNC, today officially announced his candidacy for NRCC chair today.

He'll face Rep. Phil English (R-PA) and Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX).

As Chairman, my focus will be to revise our strategy for the 2008 election, rebuild and reenergize the NRCC as an organization and increase Member involvement in every phase of the committee's activities. We must develop innovative ways to meet the challenges and exploit the opportunities associated with 527s, the internet, new communications technologies and the expanding range of non-party political operatives and actors that confront our Members and challengers.

His full announcement letter after the jump.

Upset specials always ruin our pools. What were the biggest surprises of 2006? We'll count them down.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Which Class of '06 will have a greater impact on their party, House or Senate Dems? While folks like Webb and Tester will draw more ink and air, it's Dems like Ellsworth and Boyda, and Speaker Pelosi's response to them, who'll decide whether their party's reign endures.

Ellsworth and Boyda join a big class of Blue Dogs (almost all elected in the 12 years since Dems last controlled the House) that Pelosi needs to protect to hold onto power. In the past, Blue Dogs have strayed when necessary to back GOP bills. With GOPers out, will they take the lead and introduce bills in order to put them at odds with their caucus?

Meanwhile, Pelosi faces demands from lefty cmte chairs whose 12 years of minority-fueled rage may be hard to rein in. And then there are the bloggers, like MyDD's Matt Stoller, who asks, "Which Democrats believe in date rape bipartisanship and which ones believe in trying to work together, and failing that, actually work to govern?"

New Senate Dems are a populist lot likely to cause headaches on key issues. But it's the lower chamber's freshmen who'll help their party advance, or tie it in knots.

So claim Hotline sources...

Update: who needs "sources" when you have AP!

Sen. George Allen (R-VA) will concede his Senate race to James Webb (D) at a 3pm news conference.

Webb plans to speak shortly thereafter.

UPDATE: VA GOPers are trying to ensure that Allen, a much-beloved figure within the grassroots of the party, is among friends when he faces the media later today. One GOP activist blasted out a message this morning saying that "The Allen Campaign has put out an urgent request to have people attend" the afternoon presser.

At the DNC, tech. dir. Ben Self oversaw an $8 million renovation of the Democratic Party's national voter file. The party's 50 state strategy directed investments in staff and money to states like NE, WY, ID, IN and KY, where Dems saw significant increases in their vote share and picked off several key congressional races. In Indiana, ED Mike Edmondson and chair Dan Parker had field staff in IN 02, IN 08 and IN 09 more than a year before the elections.

In Iowa, coordinated campaign director Travis Brock helped oversee a field program that picked up two congressional seats and the state legislature. GOPers in the state say that the staff detailed to legislative campaigns by Sen. Evan Bayh's All America PAC also made a big difference in those races.

According to internal AFL-CIO surveys, union voters supported Democrats 74% of the time, up from 68% in 2002. They focused on -- and managed to turn out -- hundreds of thousands of drop-off voters.

More than 205,000 union members volunteered for the AFL-CIO’s political program this year. Union members knocked on more than 8.25 million doors, made 30 million phone calls and passed out more than 14 million leaflets at workplaces and in neighborhoods. The AFL-CIO’s program sent out more than 20 million pieces of mail to union households, not including those sent by affiliate unions

The AFL-CIO’s “Final Four” program in the final four days of the election proved to be a powerful counter to the RNC’s 72-hour program. The AFL-CIO turned out 187,000 volunteers, made nearly 8 million phone calls and knocked on 3.5 million doors in the final four days.

MoveOn.org also claims credit:

The wave of voter rejection aimed primarily at the President’s failed Iraq policy was amplified by the on the ground efforts of over 185,000 MoveOn volunteers who made 7 million get-out-the vote calls in the closing weeks, days and hours of the election. In many close races, the volume of MoveOn calls far exceeded the Democratic candidates’ winning margins.

Kentucky 3: Yarmuth (D) defeated Northup (R) by 5,890 votes. Call for Change made 42,182 phone calls. New York 19: Hall (D) defeated Kelly (R) by 3,528 votes. Call for Change made 63,745. California 11: McNerney (D) defeated Pombo (R) by 9,355 votes. Call for Change made 39,007 phone calls.

Here's Rep. John Murtha's majority leader candidacy declaration:

Talk is cheap, which is why, up until Iraq forced me to, I didn't do a lot of it. But empty rhetoric is expensive. It has cost America three years in a failed war at nearly three thousand lives lost and will cost us a trillion dollars by the time we can extricate ourselves from it. Empty rhetoric has cost us years of lost time in finding a solution to our dependence on foreign oil, at a price tag that is nearly impossible to guess, but surely in the hundreds of billions.

Several old Vilsack hands chose not to join his presidential campaign. They include David Axelrod, his long-time media consultant. Axelrod is a senior adviser to Sen. Barack Obama. Also: pollster Paul Harstad, who also includes Obama as a client. Vilsack adviser Jeff Link: "The governor has talked to Axelrod and Harstad, and they are interested in what he's doing, but he decided to go with Roy [Behr] and a new pollster." Campaign manager Craig Varoga managed several independent expenditures for the Democratic Governors Assoc in '06 and was brought in by the DNC to advise the IA coordinated campaign in '04. Varoga was nat'l field director for ret. Gen. Wes Clark in '04 and res. dir. of the '96 Clinton-Gore re-election campaign. B.J. Thornberry, who ran Vilsack's PAC, will serve as an informal adviser to the campaign (Hotline reporting, 11/9)

Vilsack's presidential committee starts from scratch. Link said that several major Democratic donors would start to raise money for Vilsack beginning today. A major fundraising event called the "Gala Celebration of American Community" is planned for Des Moines on 12/2.

The full Vilsack statement: "Americans sent a clear message on Tuesday. They want leaders who will take this country in a new direction. They want leaders who share their values, understand their needs, and respect their intelligence. That's what I've done as Governor of Iowa, and that's what I intend to do as President." More Vilsack: "I couldn't be more honored that my wife, Christie, and our sons, Doug and Jess, are committed to joining my effort to offer the people of America and the Democratic Party my vision for the future of our country as a candidate for President. Over the next several weeks, they and the rest of my team will put together the building blocks needed to run a successful national presidential campaign. I invite all Americans to join with us in working for America's future."

On 11/30, Vilsack licks off a tour through NH, PA, NV and SC. Vilsack was born in Pittsburgh and began his career in Mt. Pleasant.

Squibs:

An election, a change of power, and VA SEN and MT SEN called, but most of the TV last night was on Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld's resignation:

NBC's Ohm: "The surprise announcement about Secretary Rumsfeld's resignation accomplished two things for the White House. One, it got some of the focus off of the thumping the Republicans got at the polls yesterday. ... It also shows that this president is still very much in charge going against the recommendation of Vice President Cheney to keep Rumsfeld" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 11/8).

FNC's Baier: "President Bush insisted this was a decision he had been considering with Secretary Rumsfeld for weeks. And despite recently telling reporters he would like Rumsfeld to stay on until the end of his term, the president said he didn't want to insert that major decision into the election process" ("Special Report," 11/8).

CNN's Malveaux: "President Bush said that he did not actually acknowledge that he was thinking about replacing Rumsfeld publicly because he didn't want to inject a major decision in the campaign, that it wasn't political. But, ... of course part of the decision was pragmatic, part of it was conciliatory, and a big part also political" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 11/8).

NBC's Mitchell: "This was such a class act. Don Rumsfeld, who has really done a lot of painful things and he was following the president's orders and he took it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/8).

Rep. Peter King (R-NY), asked if it would have made a difference if Rumsfeld resigned a couple of months ago: "Politically, it would have. And I guess I give the president credit. He felt that by doing that during the course of the campaign, he'd be sending a message to the troops that he was making a political decision" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 11/8).

READY TO SPEAK

Nancy Pelosi made the interview rounds last night:

On Rumsfeld's resignation: "Thank heavens the president has heard the message and has acted upon it" ("NewsHour," PBS, 11/8).

Asked if Bush is still "incompetent, shallow and dangerous" and all the other things she's called him: "I think incompetence in the implementation of a war is dangerous. But, again, the election is over. He's signaled a willingness to change by accepting the resignation -- if that's the term of art -- of Donald Rumsfeld. And I look forward to working with him in a bipartisan way, extend a hand of friendship to him to say, 'How can we find a way out of Iraq that is bipartisan, and that is effective, and that is soon?'" ("Nightline," ABC, 11/8).

On her call with Bush: "The call was very friendly. He extended a hand of friendship, which I reciprocated and told him what I had said earlier in the evening, that I looked forward working with him in partnership, not in partisanship" ("Nightly News," NBC, 11/8).

Asked who she wants for Maj. Leader: "I haven't finished counting the votes from last night. We don't even know how many Democrats we have. We know it's in the mid-to-high 20s. When we know who we are as a caucus, we can move forward with those races, but right now, right now we're not at a place where I would even talk about such things."

More: "I don't even know completely who's running. All kinds of ambition emerges after you win a majority, as I am learning, and so when we see all of that we'll go forward. But I will say though, both of them have served our party very well. Steny Hoyer I've known since we were interns in Senator Brewster's office here. I'm from Maryland, as you know. And then Jack Murtha performed a great service to the country in blowing the whistle on this war about a year ago" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/8).

PARTING ADVICE

FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "Right now, the Democrats are in a good position. The country is giving them a chance to improve Iraq and the basic tone of politics in America. But if the Democrats try to destroy Mr. Bush or impose San Francisco values, the country will turn against them. There's no question in my mind" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 11/8).

The Associated Press has called the Virginia Senate race for challenger James Webb (D).

Republicans in touch with Sen. George Allen's campaign say they they expect Allen to concede in the near future.

Per the AP's Bob Lewis: "An adviser to Allen, speaking on condition of anonymity because his boss hasn't formally decided to end the campaign, said the senator wanted to wait until most of canvassing was completed before announcing his decision, possibly as early as Thursday evening"

Update: from Allen's campaign: "The counties throughout Virginia rapidly continue to re-canvass yesterday’s election results given to the state Board of Elections. At the conclusion of those efforts, Senator George Allen plans to make a statement regarding the outcome. More details will follow from the campaign early tomorrow based on the progress of the day's re-canvassing efforts."

A hand delivered letter from Maj. Leader John Boehner is making the rounds this evening:

Why we lost seats. I'll be talking with everyone in our Conference in the coming days about how we can rebound. If I haven't talked with you yet, I will soon. Widespread concern about the war in Iraq was clearly a factor, but to my mind the issue was much closer to home. Our voters stopped thinking of us as the party of principle because we lost our commitment to and confidence in our core principles. We fell into the trap of exploiting the marginal advantages of majority control instead of constantly advancing those principles. We got used to talking with those whom we'd already convinced instead of persuading the unpersuaded. We got used to playing not to lose instead of playing to win. And somehow, we grew to accept the notion that we were entitled to continued majority control, instead of having to constantly earn it.

Following a conference call with members this afternoon, the House leadership agreed to conduct elections next Friday, 11/17.

Top Republicans in Washington will give Sen. George Allen a few days to take stock of his legal and political options before beginning to pressure him to concede to James Webb. Senior Republican officials and White House aides believe that Webb won the race. Several outside advisers to Allen want him to make the decision quickly; others in his campaign want to make sure that there's no chance a cache of new votes will turn up. One question: when will (will?) the AP call the race? [MARC AMBINDER]

Allies of Sen. John McCain in Michigan have launched an effort to oust party chair Saul Anuzis, who they view as biased against McCain and beholden to established financial interests in the state party.

Today, in an unusually personal letter to Michigan Republicans, Anuzis announced his re-election campaign and blamed "presidential politics" and "personal agendas" for the opposition.

Anuzis, in his letter, does not mention McCain but noted that his opponents planned to replace him with MI GOP 3rd district chair David DiShaw. DiShaw is a key McCain ally in the state and was the Finance Chairman for Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land this cycle.

"This appears to be a McCain and Yob power rplay. I think this is not in the best interest of the party," Anuzis told the Hotline.

According to Michigan Republicans, other potential chairman candidates are ex-MI House Speaker Chuck Perricone and ex-Senate candidate Jerry Zandstra.

Republicans sympathetic to Anuzis believe that RNC committeeman Chuck Yob has convened several conference calls over the past few days to discuss a campaign to remove Anuzis. Yob and RNC committeewoman Holly Hughes are unofficial members of McCain's kitchen cabinets in the state. A source close to Yob strongly denies that any such conference calls or meetings have taken place, saying that a campaign in the midst of a campaign would rub many potential allies the wrong way.

"As we go through the Presidential process, I believe it’s critical to have someone who is neutral and can help hold the party together," Anuzis writes in his letter. "I have been clear to everyone that I intend to stay neutral and that it would be beneficial to have a State Chairman who could help keep the party together during the upcoming Presidential campaigns."

A source close to McCain said that his top political advisers, including John Weaver, are aware of and endorse the campaign to remove Anuzis. They view Anuzis as a quiet cheerleader for Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA), who is likely to base his presidential campaign from MI's Oakland Co.

One McCain ally noted Anuzis's "ties" to the Sterling Corp, which is assisting Romney in the state and whose consultants managed Mike Bouchard's Senate campaign. "There's no way Saul can be with the Sterling Corp., which is running Romney, and still be neutral in the presidential race." Anuzis's executive director, Jeff Timmer, is a former VP of the Sterling Corp, and the party has paid the group more than $1M this cycle, making it one of five vendors to recieve state party contracts.

Anuzis has called McCain "the closest thing we have to a rock star" and "the guy to beat" in MI.

When Anuzis first ran for chair, Yob supported his then opponent, Andrew Raczkowski.

MI Republicans will choose their next chairman at a convention in February.

Anuzis was prompted to act so quickly because he believed that Yob and other McCain allies would quickly call for his removal.

Anuzis's full letter is after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) announced his candidacy for Min. Whip today:

"Last night's election was NOT a revolution, nor was it an endorsement of a true or real Democrat alternative. It was a rebuke of the way Washington has conducted itself as of late. This past year, we were presented with many opportunities to act decisively, but instead we wavered in our responsibilities. Yet in defeat there is hope, and now we are presented with an opportunity to reevaluate, unite, and change course."

From Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA):

Americans spoke last night and Republicans are listening. Americans have not become less conservative, but they believe some Republicans have. As a party, we need to remember who we are and the principles that have always led our party and our country to success.

We must return to the common sense Reagan Republican ideals of fighting for hard working Americans, lowering taxes, shrinking government, curbing out-of-control spending, promoting the traditional values of faith, family and freedom, and providing a strong national security with all the necessary tools to protect the American people and win the War on Terror.

This country wants resolute leadership to tackle tough issues and a positive vision for a better future here at home and around the world. They want leadership that trusts the American people, keeps America strong and moves our country forward.

Americans across the country over the past year didn’t say they want higher taxes. They didn’t say they want more run-away wasteful spending or a Congress that continues irresponsible pork projects. Nobody ever said that this nation needs a bigger deficit.

Americans didn’t say they wanted more activist judges who legislate from the bench and they don’t want less secure borders.

No one said they want more rights for terrorists, nor did they ask that we stop terrorist surveillance … and nobody suggested that we should make life even harder for our brave men and women fighting terror around the world.

We didn’t hear a mandate for a more liberal direction because the Democrats didn’t present one. Americans don’t share those liberal ideas.

What voters told us is that America is stuck and Washington is broken. Voters told us to move forward by embracing our conservative convictions that Americans agree with and value – and we will.

Here's the Dear Colleague letter sent today from Rep. Mike Pence announcing his min. leader campaign.

An excerpt:

"Our mission has now changed. Our mission in the Majority was to pass legislation reflecting Republican principles. The duty of the Republican Minority in the 110th Congress is to defeat the liberal agenda of the Democrat Party and become the majority in Congress again. We will only defeat the Democrat agenda by presenting a positive, conservative message in vivid contrast to the big government liberalism of the new Majority."

Pence's campaign manager for the contest with be Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX).

In another development, conference chair Rep. Deborah Pryce has decided not to seek re-election to her leadership post.

The full Pence letter is after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Hotline has learned that Maj. Leader John Boehner plans to run for Min. Leader. A formal announcement is expected within the next few days. A source close to Boehner says that several dozen House Republican members have called to express their support. [MARC AMBINDER]

A source close to Maj Whip Roy Blunt tells The Hotline that the current #3 leader in the House leadership ranks will seek to retain his position in the minority -- and that Chief Dep Min Whip Eric Cantor "will run Mr. Blunt's race for" the job. Per our source, "Cantor has already begun making calls on Blunt's behalf."

Many Hill-watchers had assumed that Blunt would not vye against his "boss" for the Min Whip position, but Blunt is still unlikely to hang onto his post without a fight, whether it is on the right from Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ) or another member in the rank-and-file.

On another House leadership front, Energy & Commerce Committee Chairman Joe Barton (R-TX) appears to be intent on mounting a challenge to Maj Leader John Boehner (R) and RSC Chair Mike Pence (R) for the Min Leader position in the new Congress. A House source shares that Barton held a conf call this a.m. with fellow members of his committee and made clear he'd be ready and willing to give up his gavel for an office in the Capitol if the support is there.
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Here's the letter from Rep. Steny Hoyer, a candidate for Majority Leader.

"November 8, 2006

"Dear Colleague,

"WE DID IT!!!

"After toiling for 12 years in the Minority, last night we recaptured the House Majority and now are poised to make history by electing our Leader, Nancy Pelosi, as the first woman Speaker, to pursue an aggressive Democratic agenda that addresses the needs of our nation and the American people, and to ensure that the Executive Branch is no longer given free rein by Congress to do whatever it wants but is held accountable by a co-equal branch of government.

"For the last four years, I have been honored to serve as your Whip, working on a daily basis with Nancy, Jim, John, Rahm, and all of the Members of our Caucus to bring us to this point. Together, our Caucus has achieved unprecedented unity – and our unity, I believe, proved to be instrumental to last night’s tremendous Democratic victory. This was a team effort!

"Today, as part of the leadership team that helped our Caucus regain the House Majority, I am writing to ask you to support my candidacy for the position of Majority Leader when the Caucus elects its leaders for the 110th Congress on November 16th. I would be honored to serve as your Majority Leader, and am grateful for the depth and broad range of commitments that have been given by Members for my candidacy. While my top priority has been helping our Caucus regain the Majority, I assure you that I have given a great deal of thought to the duties of this leadership position.

NRCC is first out of the gate, ignoring two of the chief culprits (Pres Bush and Iraq), but admirably not holding back fire at their own members.

Full memo after the jump:

A Category 5 political storm hit the shores of the Northeast on Tuesday, realigning the region from a moderately competitive terrain between the two parties to solidly Democrat. The Northeast for congressional Democrats is now the mirror image of the South for congressional Republicans.

Like any strong storm, the force weakened away from its epicenter. The farther away from the Northeast, the more competitive the GOP performed. But despite hanging tough in other regions around the country, Republicans suffered their worst midterm defeat in a generation.

Continue Reading Chuck Todd's On The Trail.

Here are a few Democrats who deserve mucho credit for building an impressive ground machine.

At the DCCC, they are Sean Sweeney and Adrian Saenz, political and field directors respectively.

At the DSCC, pol. dir. Guy Cecil spent months developing GOTV programs in Montana and Missouri that effectively harnessed those states' blue waves. (Not for nothing are DSCC exec dir J.B. Poersch and DCCC exec dir. Karin Johanson old hands at "field.") BTW: the DCCC brought in guru Michael Whouley to supervise the field programs during the last two months.

In Missouri, for example, the DSCC had 5,400 volunteers and paid staff on the streets 11/7. They targeted 250K drop-off voters and 350K swing voters outside of St. Louis and Kansas City. While the Republicans bragged about making 3 million voter contacts on the Saturday before the election, Democrats made about 3.5 million contacts.

An analysis of internal RNC and DSCC/DCCC data suggests that during the final week, the Democrats made, on average, knocked on about twice as many doors as Republicans did nationally. The two parties made roughly the same number of telephone calls.

In Montana, Cecil worked with the state Democratic party and Gov. Brian Schweitzer's aides to mobilize thousands of volunteers. The Democrats also modeled the electorate in MT and MO and made selective use of microtargeting.

The Republicans' 72 Hour Task Force is no longer impregnable, but it still performed quite well given the environment. The Republican base was motivated and the program worked to turn them out. Credit goes to the RNC's unassuming but driven political director, Mike DuHaime, as well as White House political director Sara Taylor.

Republicans managed to win 14 of 23 congressional races decided by two percentage points or less and 13 of 19 races decided by 5000 votes or less. That's a testament to the durability of the 72 Hour Program. [MARC AMBINDER]

An aide to Sen. Conrad Burns (R) tells the Hotline this morning that Burns has no plans to concede the MT Senate race anytime soon. The aide said that 21K absentee ballots have yet to be counted and other counties still haven’t finished canvassing their regular returns. Democratic officials are confident that Jon Tester (D) will win.

A Republican official close to House conservatives said this morning that Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) is likely to run for minority leader when the Republican conference holds its leadership elections. Speaker Dennis Hastert and current Maj. Leader John Boehner may announce their plans today. Tomorrow, Rep. Roy Blunt delivers what his office bills as a major speech on the future of conservatism.

On 11/7, the board of directors at RedState endorsed a Pence ticket.

And a source close to Boehner said the current #2 man in the House "will wait until [Speaker Dennis Hastert] makes some sort of official announcement about his intentions," but adds that Bohener "is expected to stand for leader if Hastert steps aside."

Pence released a statement this morning that reads like a declaratory manifesto. [MARC AMBINDER and JONATHAN MARTIN]

RESULTS: NATIONAL **** SENATE **** HOUSE **** GOVERNORS

While an informal winner will be announced, the winner won't be certified until 11/27. A canvass will take place over the next seven days to count provisional ballots. State rules stipulate that if the margin is 1% or less, the loser can ask for a recount (ABCNews.com, 11/8). It's unclear how many absentee ballots remained to be counted. The GOP "mounted a strong effort in that area" (Whitley, Richmond Times-Dispatch, 11/8).

The fact that control of the Senate may be determined by VA "raised the possibility that the national parties and hundreds of lawyers could descend" on the state as they did on FL in WH '00. A statewide recount would be the third in state history, and second in two years after the '05 AG recount. The process will likely put Gov. Tim Kaine (D), AG Bob McDonnell (R) and Board of Elections Sec. Jean Jensen "into the national spotlight" (Craig, Washington Post, 11/8).

RESULTS: NATIONAL **** SENATE **** HOUSE **** GOVERNORS

Democrats Win The House, Await MT, VA

Canvass For Senate (Webb Leads By 12K)


Dems Pick Up OH, PA, RI, MO

Dems Pick Up AZ 05, AZ 08, CO 07, CT 05, FL 16, FL 22, IN 02, IN 08, IN 09, IA 01, IA 02, KY 03, KS 02, MN 01, NC 08, NY 19, NY 20, NY 24, NH 01, NH 02, NC 11, NY 19, OH 18, PA 04, PA 07, PA 10, TX 22, WI 08, CA 11…26 so far...

Recount races: CT 02, FL 13, GA 08, IA 02, NM 01, NC 08, PA 06, PA 08, WY AL
Run-off races: TX 23

--Anti-same-sex marriage amendments pass in CO, VA, WI, TN. SD, SC and IA... fails in AZ.
--SD Abortion Ban Fails
--Dems pick up at least 6 GOV seats...
--NH state government swings blue... Iowa state government swings blue..
--Dems win net nine state legislative chambers...
--Murtha, Hoyer declare Maj. Leader Candidacy
--Pelosi meets the press at 1:00 pm ET....
--RedState Urges New GOP Leadership....
----Hastert plans press statement today...
--Bush plans 1:00 pm ET presser...
--Howard Dean plans 10:00 am speech at Nat'l Press Club....

CANVASS DETAILS IN VIRGINIA: Canvasses begin tomorrow morning. Some as early as 8 am.
VA: No credentials are needed to observe a canvass as a representative of the parties and candidates. Credentials are only needed to attend the special session handling provisional allots -- must be local party chair or registered voter in the jurisdiction and carry a letter signed by local party chair.

a

11:10 pm

Fox News' poll of 11 key House races shows Democrats leading in six, Republicans leading in three, and ties in two.

ABC's preliminary exit poll release:

" Preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters today disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job. About four in 10 approve of Bush's performance. That's down from 53 percent approval in 2004, and 67 percent just before the 2002 midterm elections. About four in 10 "strongly" disapprove of the president's work, more than double the number of strong approvers. Intensity of sentiment for and against, by contrast, was about equal in 2004: Thirty-three percent strongly approved of the president's performance, and 35 percent strongly disapproved. And in 2002, strong approvers dominated, quite a contrast from today."

Are the voting problems in NM 01 worth the fuss? This CBS report says no.

The FBI is investigating the shut down of Mike Bouchard's website in MI.

MoveOn.org Political Action "is offering a $250,000 reward for new material evidence leading to a felony conviction for an organized effort of partisan voter suppression or electronic voting fraud."

From the NJ GOP: " During a conference call this afternoon, New Jersey Republican State Committee Counsel Mark Sheridan discussed allegations of voting machine rigging in at least 7 New Jersey polling places in Passaic, Union, Middlesex, Camden, and Hudson counties."

Mark Sheridan said, "We have received dozens of calls from predominately Democrat areas throughout the state complaining of voting machines being preset with votes for Menendez, poll worker misconduct, and machines not registering votes for Tom Kean per the voter's intent. Upon entering the voting booth, individuals have encountered machines that are pre-set to vote for Menendez, causing serious confusion. In some instances, the voter has been unable to de-select the pre-set Menendez vote using the touch screen. A number of voters also have called to express concern that they mistakenly voted for Menendez."

From the Ehrlich-Steele campaign:

There have been three reports of uniformed individuals threatening to confiscate campaign literature and/or arrest Ehrlich-Steele supporters for passing out campaign literature in Prince George’s County earlier today. This is a violation of Federal Election Code 18USC594 and can be punished by up to one year in prison.

Lots of ballot confusion in Central Florida

Democratic boiler room sources report concern about Democratic turnout in Rhode Island....

In Maryland, the party believes it's overperforming in Montgomery County and a little in Prince George's County. The party believes it is underperforming in Baltimore City.

The Dems are confident about Virginia... and are expecting another surge tonight.

Dems "have concerns in Denver due to all the problems they are having there."

Dems are pleasantly surprised about what they're seeing in TN and MO.

Britney's filed for divorce from K-Fed.

She wants both babies.

The RNC is sending this memo to surrogates this afternoon.

NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)
Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

Were high density Republican precincts in NM 01 left without an adequate supply of provision ballots? A precinct in NM ran out of ballots in two hours -- only 150 provisional ballots were provided. Rep. Heather Wilson: "They are turning away voters."

Machine problems at Democratic precincts in TX 22: "Even prior to 8 am, there were already problems at the Oak Lake Baptist Church polling location in Ft. Bend County, which serves precinct 4126. The E-Slate machines were not working, and voters were turned away from the polls. This precinct is targeted by Nick Lampson's campaign and Democrats this year. "

Democratic intimidation in OH 15?

Rep. Ben Cardin (D-MD) issues a statement: "In all my years as a public official and candidate for office, I have never seen anything so deceitful, offensive and desperate. Michael Steele and the Republican Party are taking gutter politics to a new low. Since he can’t win on the issues, Michael Steele is taking a page from Karl Rove’s playbook and turning to the politics of deception. The people of Maryland deserve better.”

From Democrats: "It appears that Missouri officials appear to be handling voters correctly when optical scan machines are failing. Those voters are now being allowed to cast their ballots, even if they have to be scanned later on a working machine, without having to wait for the machine to be fixed, and without being forced to vote on provisional ballots. We will continue to monitor this."

Dems say that voters in Dem precincts recieved telephone calls urging them to cast ballots in different locations in St. Louis Co. and Kansas City. MO.

Also -- Dems have filed suit to keep polls in Denver Co., CO open for two extra hours because of early morning problems.

About 40 percent of precincts in Cuyahoga County in Ohio had to switch to paper ballots.

The following updates come direct from reputable state sources and from senior Democratic and GOP officials monitoring turnout from the parties' central boiler rooms:

From the Ehrlich (R-MD) campaign: "Our internal poll tracking is showing that turnout is light in our key counties. If this trend continues through the rest of the day we may face real trouble. In 2002 we won because of the incredible turnout. Our latest comparison of turnout, shows a decline that could put the election in jeopardy."

From a Republican: "Rhode Island – High turnout in traditional Chafee towns (Warwick, West Warwick, Narragansett, Barrington, Bristol, North Kingstown and South Kingstown). Also, Chafee ID’s in these towns are turning out, between 30% to 50% of Chafee ID’s in many of these precincts by 1:00pm. Areas of concern for Chafee are East Providence, high turnout, not a traditionally strong GOP area and low Chafee turnout in East Providence. Coventry turnout high. This is a good town for Governor Carcieri but only average for Chafee. So far (1:00pm) turnout is 28% of the level from the 2000 Presidential year. Expect turnout to approach 400,000."

From a Democrat: "Turnout is high. Especially in interesting places like VA10 and WA5."

From Jon Ralston in NV: "Add those to the number here who have voted early and sent in mail ballots and the total in Southern Nevada so far is 234,000 or so -- that's 36 percent of registered voters. In the last two elections, a large percentage has voted after 3 p.m., so there may be a deluge to come. If the initial number represents about a fourth of those who will vote today, the total turnout could still be above 55 percent. It was 57 percent four years ago."

Welcome back to On The Download, your almost-daily dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. Hotline subscribers: Check out our archives.

If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

If you have ever signed up for a political candidate's e-mail list, OTD would bet its congressional gambling winnings that you received an e-appeal today (and yesterday and the day before...) That's because if there's one day for which political e-mail can serve as more than a fundraising tool, it's today as a reminder to vote. But for some of the bigger political organizations, it's also part of a larger GOTV strategy in which parties bring out the big guns (and 2008 candidates try to squeeze their names on the list) for that final push from behind the computer screen to inside the voting booth. Here's a quick look at two trends for the final e-appeal:

GOTV: E-mail reminders to vote went out to both the DNC's and RNC's lists yesterday with links to Web sites where voters can look up polling places. The RNC, however, had to resend localized e-mails to voters today alerting receipients that the voter information listed "may have contained outdated or inaccurate information" and included a link to a voter services Web site. According to an RNC staffer, the localized e-mails were incorrect due to a computer glitch which has now been fixed and the e-mails were resent with additional voter information just in case.

Otherwise, final voter appeals were generally sent out by the heads of each campaign organization (i.e. Rahm Emanuel for the DCCC, Tom Reynolds for the NRCC, Howard Dean for the DNC and either Ken Mehlman or Political Director Michael DuHaime for the RNC) instead of the typical big names (Obama for Dems; A lot of McCain and Giuliani for GOPers) that usually bring in the big bucks. In terms of quantity, the RNC sent out at least one e-mail every day since mid-October, while the DNC kept up the pace with their mid-week fundraising letters.

WH '08: The final crunch is also a last chance for potential White House '08 candidates to show their support for party favorites in addition to an excuse to get their name out to supporters across the country. For just the RNC list, the following WH '08 candidates had their likeness on an e-mail in the past few weeks: Jeb Bush, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Bill Frist, Sam Brownback. And of course, Laura Bush -- twice since late October. Comparatively, the DNC's weekly e-mails were addressed by Howard Dean or Tom McMahon.

But here's something of note: Hillary Clinton was never in Iowa or New Hampshire to fundraise for candidates this cycle, but her HILLPAC sent out an e-mail in late October asking for donations to Iowa Congressional candidate Bruce Braley via an ActBlue donations. Sneaky, sneaky. page [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Indiana may extend voting hours.

In TN, that dead guy may have voted again in Shelby Co.

In Ohio, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-OH) had trouble voting on the new machines there. YouTube's already featuring the footage.

From the Democrats: "VOTER NOTICE: We are concerned that in Missouri and Ohio, some voters are being asked to vote on provisional ballots when the optical scan machines are failing. Those voters should be allowed to cast their ballots, even if they have to be counted later on a working machine, without having to wait for the machine to be fixed, and without being forced to vote on provisional ballots."

From Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-RI)'s campaign: "The Chafee Campaign has received numerous complaints from Rhode Islanders about the removal of our campaign signs. Last night, Keep Chafee signs were taken down throughout Rhode Island while those of opponent Sheldon Whitehouse remained in place."

From the DSCC: "Paid GOP poll workers in PG County are handing out Ehrlich/Steele mailer that wrongly says PG County Exec Jack Johnson and others are endorsing the Steele-Ehrlich ticket." Johnson is holding a presser to denounce the mailer.

What If...:

.....Romney had run for re-election and Allen hadn't. ...

.....MD Dems had moved their primary to June

... the WH hadn't "Stayed the Course" all summer or they'd nat'lized the election this spring

... Lamont had run as aggressively AFTER the primary as he did before

... House GOPers hadn't dumped DeLay

... TN's Ford was married

... Rehberg were the MT SEN nominee

... DeWine had run for OH GOV as planned

... Talent had said no to a WH visit and Crist had said yes.

... Sig Rogich had escorted NV's Gibbons to his room

... WI's Green had transferred his House money to the GOP.

Imagine if...:

.....Roemer had challenged Lugar

... or VA's Warner hadn't dropped his WH plans

... or Van Hollen had run for MD SEN

... or Johanns hadn't moved to USDA

... the NRSC hadn't ever left MT

... Jack Ryan had run for IL GOV

... Ridge had run for PA SEN and Santorum for PA GOV

... FL's Harris had lost the '98 Sec/State primary.

Remember: millions of people voting * tens of poll workers * thousands of machines = literally billions of voting-related transactions.

We've checked in with the national parties, and aside from minor, sporadic tangles and anecdotal evidence of high turnout, there are no major national voting problems.

Here's the AP's national overview.

Maryland and Virginia

Ohio -- Well, it's Ohio.

Indiana: problems with machines and poll workers but not with the state's new voter ID law.

Camden, NJ -- 30 machines not working.

From the PA Dem Party: "Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney today said an injunction was granted to have “Rendell/Santorum” signs removed from areas near polling places in Philadelphia."

From NJ: Statement by Kean campaign manager Evan Kozlow:

“It appears the Democrats have already resorted to Election Day dirty tricks. Late last night vandals struck the Kean for Senate Headquarters and an auxiliary office of the Star-Ledger by chaining closed the main entrance to the building as well as braking off keys in the side door entrances. Desperate ploys such as using Hudson County Correctional Inmates to disrupt press conferences or chaining closed the front door to our headquarters, will not prevent us from informing voter’s that Bob Menendez is under Federal Criminal Investigation and is unfit to serve in the United States Senate.”

How quickly is an official request filed in St. Louis to keep polls open?

Early voting effect on stopping Burns' momentum and on salvaging Ford?

Dems living by the independent sword in just about every race but two: CT SEN And RI SEN where the Dem nominee does NOT lead among indies.

At what point during the day does Fox News start focusing almost entirely on Pelosi, Rangel, etc

Does the early vote make MI tighter?

How many live shots from Louisville, KY tonight? Does John Yarmuth become the most famous alternative weekly publisher in America?

Does John McCain appear on every network at 10pm tonight?

If the GOP loses less than 25 seats, will the WH pin all the blame on the House and deflect any Iraq/WH blame?

If Dems fall short, do party repulars dump on Kerry a la "Bartman" of Chicago Cub fame? Howard Dean?

If Dems win, will party regulars give Dean any credit? (He deserves some...)

Will all the nets cover Hillary's "victory" speech?

Who is the designated senior administration official who'll give reporters the background response of the White House tonight?

Who is the first member of the current GOP leadership tp blame Bush? Karl Rove?

Romney, McCain, Giuliani's first statements ... Compare and contrast.

Control Of Congress Tea Leaves -- Election Day

Both RNC and DNC officials took solace in Democracy Corps' final poll.

This final survey of the 50 competitive Republican districts, dialed Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night, shows the Democrats with a 5-point margin in the named congressional ballot (49 to 44 percent).1 That is down 2 points from the middle of last week and up 2 points from a week ago. In fact, the Democrat has polled 49 percent in virtually every survey in October, while the Republican has been stuck, now at 44 percent. When the undecided is allocated based on leanings, the Democrats carry this Republican territory, 51 to 46 percent. With the Democrats ahead in the most vulnerable and safest tiers of seats, Democrats should expect to carry the great majority of them.

2. Bob Novak: "Enormous Republican efforts to encourage early and absentee voting could dramatically skew exit polls. Do not be surprised if the apparent results Tuesday night are overturned by Wednesday morning in several close House races. Also, expect a few recounts."

3. But.... the MT Sec of State reported Friday that 106K voters cast ballots early or by absentee... well over 1/4 of the votes expected in the state. Of these, Dem internal polls had Jon Tester winning 58-37.

4. Code Orange! Election Lawyers Earn Their Salaries today.

5. Neh? "Phone service at Allen campaign headquarters is currently down, for reasons that remain unclear. To contact the press office, please call: ..." The Webb campaign complains of voter intimidation calls... and the VA Sec/State expresses concern.

6. Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) plans an important, post-election speech on the future of American conservatism. He's at the Heritage Foundation on Thurs.

7. The RNC research dept. sent out a release entitled "Beware The Exit Polls: Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Elections.

8. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) won't switch parties. Either will Gene Taylor (D-MS).

All politics across cable TV last night. Pundits gave their predictions, candidates got in some last-minute interviews and correspondents offered updates on the most contested races. Here are some updates:

MSNBC's Shuster, on VA SEN: "The election hasn't even started and the lawyers are already involved. The Webb campaign says that they are considering filing a complaint with the Department of Justice for what the Webb campaign is calling widespread and deliberate voter suppression efforts by the Republicans. The Webb campaign, as well as state officials here in Virginia, have documented widespread calls in which people call voters claiming to be a Webb volunteer and saying that their polling location has changed. Enough of the people who are on the receiving end of these calls, including one who was a poll worker, noticed that these calls were coming in from out of state, so the Webb campaign says that they're concerned that this is an effort to try and confuse people about the election" ("Tucker," 11/6).

NBC's Mitchell: "The Redskins won in the last seven seconds. ... It was a wild game. They beat their legendary rivals the Cowboys" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/6).

CNN's Johns, on TN SEN: "People are worried about the weather here right now. But, mostly, they're focused on turnout" ("AC 360," 11/6).

MSNBC's Blome: "The worst of the weather in west Tennessee, Harold Ford territory, came through today. The rain has finally stopped. It's moving into central Tennessee and over into east Tennessee overnight and tomorrow. They're saying 100 percent chance of rain in east Tennessee. That's Bob Corker territory" ("Tucker," 11/6).

NBC's Tibbles, on MO SEN: "The Democrats are hoping and the polling seems to show that the stem cell issue is going to pass and the Democrats are hoping that that is also going to mean a vote for Ms. McCaskill" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/6).

FNC's Cameron, on MD SEN: "On election eve, a flashback -- former Vice President Al Gore stumping for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ben Cardin in Maryland and indirectly acknowledging the Democrats could lose this seat, and with it, any chance of the Senate majority" ("Special Report," 11/6).

CNN's Franken, on OH SEN: "Ohio Democrats have gotten a big boost from the state GOP's corruption problems. ... So anything but bad news for Ohio Republicans ... would be considered an upset. But as we all know, in politics, upset happens" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 11/6).

FNC's Baier, on FL GOV: "Rove seemed pretty miffed by Crist choosing Palm Beach over the president" ("Special Report," 11/6).

FINAL TV TIME

Rudy Giuliani appeared on "Hannity & Colmes" with IA GOV's Jim Nussle (R).

Katherine Harris stopped by "On the Record."

Harold Ford was on "LKL."

Mike DeWine and Sherrod Brown were on "LKL" in separate interviews.

Rick Santorum was also on "LKL" and on "Imus" this a.m. [EMILY GOODIN]

ALEXANDRIA, VA -- If the manner in which the 42nd and 43rd presidents closed out the 2006 election cycle is indicative, predictions of a Democratic surge tomorrow could prove true. Pres Bush attended a rally today held for FL's frontrunning GOV candidate, AG Charlie Crist (R) -- without Crist. An appearance with Bush in the state's conservative Panhandle was not as important as touching down in more competitive cities, Crist said. So the President of the United States was relegated to touting a candidate in absentia while standing on stage with his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush (R), and Sen. Mel Martinez (R), neither of whom are on the ballot tomorrow.

WH officials tried to argue that it was not a snub, and that the event was intended as a rallly for the GOP ticket. But the other top Republican on the ticket did not even get a spot on the stage, let alone a chance to speak alongside Pres Bush. Rep. Katherine Harris (R) got a fleeting mention in the president's introductory remarks and even less when a reporter asked WH Press Sec. Tony Snow before the event if the president was excited to campaign for the former FL Sec/State who played a pivotal role in the 2000 campaign. "He wants Republican candidates to win," Snow offered.

Hours later and almost a thousand miles north, Pres Bill Clinton took to a stage in this city, just across the river from the nation's capital. With him was not just the candidate on top of VA's ticket, SEN nominee James Webb (D), but VA's current and immediate past governor, the local congressman, a downstate congressman, three other candidates for area cong. seats, and almost every local Democratic office-holder. And if that wasn't enough, ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey (D), Sen Min Leader Harry Reid (D) and DSCC chair Charles Schumer (D) also found their way to the top of the riser -- and to the front row.

So while the WH couldn't get one statewide candidate to even show at their event -- and wouldn't let another grace the same stage with the president -- in a red region of a red state, Democrats couldn't keep people away from their rally in another red state. While Alexandria and the rest of Northern VA are, of course, significantly more blue-leaning than the rest of the commonwealth, it is nonetheless striking that VA Democrats, who for decades sought to distance themselves from their nat'l party, would even seek the polarizing Clinton to appear at an election-eve rally in a state he lost twice. Clinton's last public appearance with a statewide candidate in VA? Nine years to the day, in front of the same city hall here, for then-LG Don Beyer's (D) unsuccessful GOV bid. Clinton's '97 appearance, however, was not the last time a president swooped into VA for an election eve visit. Pres Bush decamped from Air Force One last November to fire up Republicans at a Richmond airport hangar for then-AG Jerry Kilgore's (R) GOV bid. Kilgore was trounced the next day. Sen. George Allen (R), like Crist, avoided the 11th-hour photo op, but will he avoid Kilgore's fate?
[JONATHAN MARTIN]

Dems need to pick up 15 seats to win back control of Congress. That's happened only once since '82 -- during the '94 GOP sweep. Here's a look at the net pickups since 1970:

1970: +12D
1972: +12R
1974: +49D
1976: +1D
1978: +15R
1980: +34R
1982: +26D
1984: +14R
1986: +5D
1988: +2D
1990: +9D
1992: +10R
1994: +52R
1996: +3D
1998: +4D
2000: +2D
2002: +5R
2004: +6R

The weather outlook for tomorrow looks good except, in western WA and OR, where flood watches have been posted along with high wind watches.

The National Weather Service also predicts rain in VA and TN (CNN).

The DSCC spent a total of $25M on turnout, and the cmte provided a few nuggets about their efforts:

• "1. In Tennessee, early voting among Democrats and, in particular, African Americans is significantly higher than past off-year election cycles. We expect to exceed presidential level turnout in the African American community."


• "2. In Montana, we have one volunteer for every 21 voters we need to get to the polls on Election Day, exceeding the goals of the RNC 72 hour task force. We have also seen a significant increase in absentee ballot voting for Democrats."


• "3. In Missouri, we have hundreds of volunteers knocking on the doors of drop-off Democrats (Democrats who typically don't vote in an off-year election, including unmarried women across the state who heavily favor [MO SEN candidate] Claire McCaskill)."


• "4. In Rhode Island, we have exceeded our GOTV volunteer recruitment goals by 50%" (Hotline reporting, 11/6).

Are Dems set for a big night in Tuesday's Gov races? Get the run-down on just about every major governor's race in the country in our second big predictions show! And join us tomorrow for our Senate look.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

A trip through The Hotline archives for the weekend before the '94 election shows the generic ballot as follows:

ABC: --- 47-46 in favor of the Dems (a 6-point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
Gallup: --- 51-44 for the GOP (a 4 point swing in the last week toward the Dems)
NBC: --- 46-35 for the GOP (a 2 point swing in the two weeks toward the Dems)
Times Mirror: --- 48-43 for the GOP (a 7 point swing in the last month toward the Dems)

While this may come across as DNC talking points, it's worth noting as folks chatter all day about the meaning of today's Pew, Gallup and ABC generic ballot closings. [CHUCK TODD]

GOPers reported making 2.9M voter contacts on 11/4, bringing their total for the year to 27.2M. More voter contacts were made on 11/5 than in the past six days combined. In 12 of 30 states, the GOP exceeded 1M voter contacts, and in 19 of 47 CDs, the GOP exceeded 25K voter contacts (Hotline reporting, 11/6).


The top five states in terms of GOP voter contacts on 11/4:

Ohio                257,082 

Pennsylvania        241,459 

Florida             237,954 

Missouri            215,624 

Minnesota           181,819 

CO 07                  48,564 

NY 20                  41,245 

IN 02                  40,030 

MN 06                  39,213 

AZ 05                  38,539 

Michigan Republican chair Saul Anuzis e-mailed an overview of Republican early vote / absentee efforts in Michigan.

The highlights:

608,074 Absentee Ballots have been requested across the state

369,045 (60.69 percent) of those requests come from our primary or secondary target lists

Only 127,677 requests come from voters who have been identified as Democrats

435,252 ballots that have been returned (versus simply requested)

Our target Republicans account for 269,650 (61.95%) of all ballots returned so far

IDd Democrats account for only 21.5% of returned ballots (though there are undoubtedly many Dems among the 90,371 returns who fall into the unidentified category)

The full memo is after the jump.

Republican pollster Steve Lombardo e-mails the Hotline his final overview.

The Republican "surge," he writes, may have come too late.

"Tomorrow’s election will take place in what may be the greatest time of voter discontent in the last 30 years. Six in ten voters believe the country is on the “wrong track”. They are angry and they know who is in charge. When you look at a Gallup poll question on satisfaction nearly two thirds of voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This is very close to 1994 levels and just a bit better than 1982."

On the Congressional Generic Ballot (CGB):

"Republicans have not closed the GCB gap far enough. We believe that the narrowing of the GCB is in part a natural occurrence (Republicans and some swing voters coming home) and also some improvement in the environment for the GOP, but it remains a huge hurdle for the Party. In 1994, eve of the election polls showed Republicans with anywhere from a 4 to 7 point GCB lead. The two most recent polls in this election show Democrats with a similar 4-7 point lead."

Also:

"Democrats do better in polls than they do on Election Day. Simply put, Democrats under-perform because a large segment of their core vote is made up of Independents and young people -- both of whom are less likely to actually vote on election day."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

JohnCombest.com -- Talent tours rural areas, Obama visits St. Louis

Sayfie's Review -- Crist says he won't join Bush today at rally

NhNewslinks.com -- NRCC to end calls in dispute; War, GOP dominate for voters

Quorum Report -- Secret money source steps forward

WisPolitics.com -- Clinton In Milwaukee For Dem Guv

Capitol Fax -- Latest state treasurer TV ads - both negative

Some turnout nuggets from Dem congressional campaign sources:

• GOTV rallies have been larger than expected: 6K showed up for Bill Clinton's last-minute visit to AZ 05.
• In IL 06, the DCCC canvassing program stormed through two days worth of precincts in less than one day
• In IN 08, "huge numbers of volunteers" are showing up
• 600 volunteers spent Sunday making calls on behalf of Dem Angie Paccione in CO 04
• The DCCC claims early vote success in FL (Hotline reporting, 11/6).

A memo from RNC chairman Ken Mehlman includes a nugget about turnout:

72-HOUR PROGRAM IS WORKING.

The GOP’s 72-hour program has reached 27 million volunteer contacts through Saturday, hitting 3 million voters this Saturday alone. By and large, this effort will have its impact on Election Day and will not show up in most public opinion polls. However, some trends are starting to be seen in the data:

Republicans are casting a wider net: According to the ABC/Washington Post poll, among those who have been contacted by campaigns, 70% were contacted by Republicans while only 61% were contacted by Democrats.
And using better targeting: The Pew study says that we are not only contacting more voters, but contacting the right voters: 40% of our party was contacted by Republicans, while Democrats only connected with 34% of their own party.

From ABC News' The Note:

In a tailor-made-for-Jon-Stewart development, Vice President Cheney has concluded his 2006 campaigning and is participating in his annual hunting trip. The White House insists that Cheney is not avoiding being out on the trail, he's simply keeping his long planned excursion, reports ABC News' Karen Travers. This is the first time Mr. Cheney has gone hunting since he shot and wounded his friend Harry Whittington in February.

Travers also reports that Cheney was in South Dakota on a hunting trip for the midterm elections in 2002. The White House also Notes that Cheney has done 117 total campaign events -- 59 House events, 20 Senate events, 4 gubernatorial events, and 34 events for the national Republican Party committees and state Republican parties. Cheney did four victory rallies in the last week. The AP has it too

1. In a polarized electorate where incumbency and redistricting have left a sizable Democratic lagoon and a larger Republican lagoon, don't be surprised that the generic ballot question, which measures sentiment across the entire country, shows a regression toward the mean as voters actually consider their vote. But news reports about Republican momentum can only make Republicans slightly more hopeful and Democrats slightly more nervous.

A senior Republican official explains the momentum as such:

The momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).

Republicans find a strong correlation between party ID and the generic ballot.

2. It's hard to get a handle on early voting. The smart, honest number crunchers in both parties are claiming that their sides have the advantage. In some states, like Iowa, the Democrats had a better go of it; in others, like Florida, Republicans have the advantage. In states like Michigan Montana, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, each party has numbers to back up their claims to be confident. One thing's certain: the GOP's early vote program did not fail, and that the Republicans at least kept pace with Democrats means that the modeling techniques used to cue up these voters were successful.

3. Never in recent electoral history have the structural assets claimed by one party -- the Republicans -- so loudly clashed with the prevailing winds, which favor the Democrats. In 2000, the Democrats had a superior, union-influenced turn-out effort and the GOP had the environment -- Clinton fatigue. But Democrats picked up four Senate seats and won a popular vote majority in the general election. Or maybe tomorrow will be like 1998: If Republicans do better than expected tomorrow, is it because Democrats overplayed Iraq, because the economy is strong, because independents were angry and turned off, or because there hasn't been a terror attack since 9/11? [MARC AMBINDER]

The Lieberman campaign is feeling both feisty and confident. They can start checking names off their list of Democrats who turned on the three term incumbent after his August primary defeat.

The Lieberman people took delight early last week in telling a story of John Kerry’s rebuff by Senate Democratic leaders when he lobbied them to lend some aid to Democrat aristocrat Ned Lamont’s flagging campaign. Lieberman’s campaign is delighted it still has friends in high places. They received added satisfaction when Lieberman got to pile on Kerry mid-week as the haughty Massachusetts neighbor limped off the campaign field. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

Pew is out with their final pre-election poll and just like the ABC/Wash. Post poll, Pew shows Republicans with momentum. In the generic ballot, Dems lead by just 4 points. More importantly, the GOP has made significant cuts into the Dems once gigantic lead among indies. Also of note, from the release:

"There also are some indications that Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the war Iraq may have had a modest impact on the race. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry’s remarks – with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush’s statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of Defense until he leaves office in 2009."

Here are today's must-read headlines

• Mason-Dixon/MSNBC/McClatchy Senate Polls: Dems have solid to semi-solid leads in PA and OH (though DeWine's cut it to single digits); Chafee is actually leading in RI (by a point); MT SEN is dead even; McCaskill and Webb have statistically insignificant 1-point leads in MO and VA; Steele's cut Cardin's lead to 3; Kyl's just barely under 50 and leads by 8; Corker (TN), Stabenow (MI) and Cantwell (WA) all have double-digit leads. In other polling in these same races: In NJ, Monmouth Univ. has Menendez up on Kean by just 3 points with more than 10% of folks undecided.

• Natural Tightening Or Real Closing?: The final ABC News/Washington Post poll shows Pres. Bush and the GOP ticking up just a bit. Dems lead the GOP 53-43 among RVs and 51-45 among LVs, as narrow of a generic ballot as we've seen in weeks. Meanwhile a Time poll claims 52% of Dems say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of GOPers. Finally, in a Newsweek poll, Dems lead the generic by double-digits among LVs, 54-38.

• The GOP's Mood: While the polls mentioned above should lift GOP spirits, one can't tell it in today's New York Times, at least in regards to the House. GOP pollster Glen Bolger: "It’s the worst political environment for Republican candidates since Watergate." Multiple GOP strategists are quoted either on the record or on background admitting they could lose at least 25-30 House seats. Ex-NRCC Chair/Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA): "There’s no question we’re going to take a hit. The only question is how hard it would be."

• Who Needs Polls!: The Washington Post's 13th annual Crystal Ball contest is out and it's a tournament of champions, meaning only previous winners were allowed to play this year. The consensus: Dems win the House, GOP holds the Senate.

• The Hussein Verdict: He's been sentenced to death but all death sentences automatically go to appeal.

• Does every politician have original sin, even Barack Obama? The Dem golden boy issued a statement of "regret" about his dealings with an "indicted political fundraiser."

• Turnout Watch: Is the 72-hour program showing some signs of wear and tear? According to one source, the RNC is now having to increase its "volunteer" compensation from $75 a day to $100 a day in certain places in New England (Hotline). ... Here are some exerpts from a Family Research Council GOTV email sent yesterday: "Two days remain before Election Day. America's Pastors hold the keys to Tuesday's elections. Thousands of founding era election sermons testify to the Biblical responsibility that motivated pastors to prepare their flocks to vote. .. May God pour out his Spirit upon America's Pastors! May their powerful Election Sermons stir voters to elect God-fearing leaders who will restore righteousness in government and public policy! (Ex 18:21; Lev 10:8-10)."

• The Stumpers: Ex-Pres. Clinton is stumping in MD on Sunday night for both major Dem nominees, Ben Cardin and Martin O'Malley. He's in NY 24 on Monday for Mike Arcuri. ... Barack Obama is in Nashville for Harold Ford at lunchtime today. ... On Monday, John McCain begins his day in TN for Bob Corker, flies to FL for a Charlie Crist rally and then heads west to NM 01 for Heather Wilson.

• Crossing Our Transom: What impact will there be Tuesday on the results due to the number of inexperienced campaign managers (particularly on the GOP side) who are finding themselves in difficult races?

• AZ SEN: Perhaps it is good news for Dem Jim Pederson that Republicans are worried enough to file an FEC complaint over what they claim is a "money laundering" scheme involving Pederson and the state party.

• VA SEN: Sen. George Allen (R) will close out his campaign with one more 2-minute TV ad, his third such 2-min. of ad of the cycle.

• FL GOV: The Palm Beach Posthas internal numbers from both parties which give Charlie Crist a lead of 5-8 points over Jim Davis. However, a new Miami Herald/Zogby poll has Crist up 10.

• IA GOV: The final Des Moines Register poll shows Dem Chet Culver leading GOP Rep. Jim Nussle by nine points. More importantly, Culver is over 50%.

• MI GOV: According to the final Detroit Free Press poll, Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) has opened up a double-digit lead over GOPer Dick DeVos, her largest lead of the campaign.

• House Polls: The DCCC is touting news polls in IA 01 (Braley up double-digits) and FL 22 (Klein with largest lead in any public poll yet).

A special news digest from the staff of the Hotline.

A weekend from .... for the GOP? Dems nervous about MT as poll shows dead heat .... Turnout hints .... Bill Clinton's only TV ad?

WHAT'S BREWING

This may be the closing weekend from hell for the White House. First, the mainstream media is savoring the Ted Haggard controversy; it led network newscasts last night.

Then, those brave neo-cons who pined for a war with Saddam Hussein essentially regurgitate all over the entire Bush national security team in Vanity Fair. Vice President Cheney, in an interview with George Stephanopoulos yesterday, looked shell-shocked.

Then the Los Alamos security breach.

Then, of course, the news that the four independent and influential newspapers that serve the branches of the military will jointly call on Monday for the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld in an editorial entitled "Time For Rumsfeld To Go."

Cheney, on ABC, said it was "full speed ahead" with the admin's Iraq policy.

"It may not be popular with the public — it doesn't matter in the sense that we have to continue the mission and do what we think is right. And that's exactly what we're doing," Cheney said. "We're not running for office. We're doing what we think is right."

So: the context for tomorrow's expected Saddam Hussein verdict will be all of the above.

On NBC this morning, Tim Russert said that strategists in both parties think there’s a 50/50 chance that Democrats retake the Senate.

On 11/2, the RNC recorded more than 1 million voter contacts, bringing their total for the year to more than 23 million. (Hotline)

We hear the NRCC is flying in a plane load of volunteers to help Rep. Richard Pombo (R-CA) survive.

Meanwhile, Montana's tightness concerns Democrats. Over the past two days, Gov. Brian Schweitzer has convened conference calls with several groups of Democrats, including a handful of prominent liberal bloggers. His message is that Jon Tester's (D) margin over Conrad Burns (R) has shrunk to about five points in internal Democratic tracking, and that if Tester isn't ahead of Burns by three points on election day, the state's natural conservative swing could shove Tester off the precipice of victory. Democratic donors have also been asked to contribute. Democrats worry about the GOP's formidable 72 Hour Program in the state, long touted as one of the country's most proficient. Republicans say they've averaging about 17,000 telephone calls and in-person contacts with voters. (Hotline)

1. In The Waiting Line: Rep. John Sweeney's (R) camp "failed" to produce documents this a.m., which it claims will refute reports that Sweeney's wife, Gaia, called 911 and alleged that "he physically abused" her in 12/05. Although the AP, the Times Union of Albany and New York Daily News have all offered "assistance in preparing release waivers," Sweeney's camp "has declined" the help. The AP tried to contact Sweeney's office this a.m. but Sweeney's camp had "no immediate comment" (AP/Newsday).

2. Gotta Assume Undecideds Break Right, Don't We? In ID 01, a Greg Smith & Assoc. poll; conducted 10/25-11/1 for the Idaho Business Review and KTVB-TV; surveyed 287 LVs; margin of error +/- 6% (release, 11/3). Tested: State Rep. Bill Sali (R) and atty Larry Grant (D).

General Election Matchup
Grant                38%
Sali                 34
Other/undec          28

This week on Hotline TV, we're finally putting our money where our mouths are and picking EVERY COMPETITIVE RACE IN THE HOUSE! Play along, and keep score. Can you beat Chuck and John?

Join us Monday for a special look at the nation's governor's races, and Tuesday for our Senate prediction show. Have fun campaigning this weekend.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

The Hotline's Jonathan Martin and Josh Kraushaar examine in this week's National Journal how where Dems pick up seats in '06 could determine if their potential majority lasts more than one term.

"Because of the circumstances that have produced these varied targets of opportunity, Democrats are on course to win 12 seats in districts that President Bush carried in 2004. The three other races most likely to get Democrats to that magic number of 15 needed to take the House are in districts that Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry won by 7 points or less.

"It is the next 10 most contested races that are crucial to Democratic hopes for laying the foundation for a lasting majority. Nearly all of the contests are toss-ups, with polling showing them within the margin of error. These are the races that will determine if the change in power -- assuming there is one -- is merely a fluke caused by circumstances unique to this cycle."

Doesn't sound like it.

"All of us at Focus on the Family are heartsick over the allegation, not yet confirmed, that Ted has had a private life with a homosexual for several years. We will await the outcome of this story, but the possibility that an illicit relationship has occurred is alarming to us and to millions of others. "Ted has been my close friend and colleague for many years. He has been used mightily to spread the Gospel of Jesus Christ in Colorado Springs and around the world. He will continue to be my friend, even if the worst allegations prove accurate. Nevertheless, sexual sin, whether homosexual or heterosexual, has serious consequences, and we are extremely concerned for Ted, his family and his church. "We ask that the Focus on the Family constituency and Christians everywhere pray for Ted and his loved ones. Our hearts go out to all of them. Perhaps the allegations are false and the circumstances are not as we have heard. Either way, the situation has grave implications for the Cause of Christ, and we ask for the Lord’s guidance and blessings in the days ahead."

With Kerry’s comments and tight Senate races, the Nevada GOV race has managed to stay out of the national spotlight. But if you want to know just how bizarre it has gotten, three new ads tell you everything you need to know.

Dina Titus:

Jim Gibbons:

NV Democratic Party:

Late night phone call berating student? Check.

Using the “L” word? Check.

Allegations of assault against a cocktail waitress? Check.

A vast, Vegas strip conspiracy to cover up the charge? Check.

Pro-choice/pro-life flip flop? Check.

Illegal immigrant nanny? Check.

Exploiting an Iraq widow? Check.

Gibbons’ ad represents his first counterattack on Titus after what has been a brutal few weeks for him. He refers to a phone message Titus left on a student’s voice mail (which we documented last August ). In her ad, Titus rounds up some of her main attacks on Gibbons – abortion, illegal immigration – while strongly hinting at the assault allegations from the infamous Friday the 13th affair. The Nevada Democratic Party’s ad is their second to explicitly refer to the situation; this one tries to play up theories of a cover up.

Despite it all, Gibbons’ campaign is exhibiting optimism heading into the weekend. They see positive signs from early voting results, which they think will put them over the top. And today, there are reports that portions of surveillance tapes released to the media back Gibbons’ account of the night in question. Still, we are going to be keeping a close eye on the number of votes for “None of the Above” on election night. [MIKE MEMOLI]

1. Keeping Up With The Fords? In TN, ex-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) lent his camp $2M earlier this week. FEC records showed Ford "was keeping pace, or was even ahead, in overall resources." Although Corker had raised $13.1M to Ford's $10.9M before his loan, IEs on Ford's behalf "far outpaced" Corker's. (Memphis Commercial Appeal).

This Race Is Nasty: Last night, Corker was on "Hannity & Colmes." Corker: "The great thing about this race, I get to wake up every day and just be myself... unfortunately, my opponent has to wake up every day being somebody he's not." Asked if he supports Common Sense Tennessee sponsoring negative automated phone calls about Ford: "I don't. I really don't know much about it, to be honest. I read one news clip that, you know, referred to it... that's something that if elected I'd like to look into" (FNC).

In Michigan, allies of Sen. John McCain seems to be pushing a movement to oust party chair Saul Anuzis. The Lansing State Journal reports that

"One source reports that west Michigan Republican Chuck Yob is quietly plotting to oust Anuzis and has enlisted the help of Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land to do it. The Chuckster claims he knows nothing about that and emphasizes, "I have never lied to a reporter." Asked, however, if he was happy with Anuzis, Yob deflected, saying, "I don't know about that." Hardly a ringing endorsement. Anuzis suggests, "Anyone focusing on the chairman's race at this point in time should re-evaluate their priorities."

More from the Journal: "With John McCain probably running for president, some of his Michigan backers are a tad worried that Anuzis has cuddled too closely to the Mitt Romney for president effort."

Squibs: