Control Of Congress Tea Leaves: 24 Hours Out...
1. In a polarized electorate where incumbency and redistricting have left a sizable Democratic lagoon and a larger Republican lagoon, don't be surprised that the generic ballot question, which measures sentiment across the entire country, shows a regression toward the mean as voters actually consider their vote. But news reports about Republican momentum can only make Republicans slightly more hopeful and Democrats slightly more nervous.
A senior Republican official explains the momentum as such:
The momentum comes from three things: (1) the likely voter screen capturing increased GOP motivation, (2) a more accurate sampling (although in the case of Pew and ABC, they haven’t been bad in the past, so I wouldn’t overplay this factor), and more importantly, (3) tightening coming from some key swing comes coming home to GOP. We had been close to maxed out (85-90) among republicans for a while, but these recent polls show gains among moderates, independents – particularly conservative I’s and white evangelical Christians (groups we should be winning 3-1, but had been 2-1 with for a while).
Republicans find a strong correlation between party ID and the generic ballot.
2. It's hard to get a handle on early voting. The smart, honest number crunchers in both parties are claiming that their sides have the advantage. In some states, like Iowa, the Democrats had a better go of it; in others, like Florida, Republicans have the advantage. In states like Michigan Montana, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico, each party has numbers to back up their claims to be confident. One thing's certain: the GOP's early vote program did not fail, and that the Republicans at least kept pace with Democrats means that the modeling techniques used to cue up these voters were successful.
3. Never in recent electoral history have the structural assets claimed by one party -- the Republicans -- so loudly clashed with the prevailing winds, which favor the Democrats. In 2000, the Democrats had a superior, union-influenced turn-out effort and the GOP had the environment -- Clinton fatigue. But Democrats picked up four Senate seats and won a popular vote majority in the general election. Or maybe tomorrow will be like 1998: If Republicans do better than expected tomorrow, is it because Democrats overplayed Iraq, because the economy is strong, because independents were angry and turned off, or because there hasn't been a terror attack since 9/11? [MARC AMBINDER]
4. Wave or no wave. One theory is that wave elections aren't possible in the modern (post '00) political era: the benefits of incumbency + redistricting + a superior GOTV operation + a better, more responsive and more forward-thinking Republican campaign machine combine to produce an insurmountable wall. To torture a metaphor, if incumbents are ships, capable of swaying in rough seas but tough to capsize, they're now garbage trawlers.
5. In Montana, Jon Tester still needs money. "We are in need of $50,000 in order to defeat Republican incumbent Senator Conrad Burns on Election Day. This money will go straight to increasing our outreach to undecided voters." A Democratic strategist e-mails us: "We got some interesting data back on the Bush's Montana trip. We think he ended up doing more to hurt Burns than he did to help him. In Billings, Burns was actually doing well before the trip and afterwards we were in the lead there."
6. Here's the argument against cancelling an appearance with Pres. Bush the day before the election. Suddenly, the story becomes "Charlie Crist Cancels Appearance With Bush." The media will repeat the words "Charlie Crist" and "Bush."
7. Mike DuHaime, the RNC political director, sent Victory '06 directors and GOP state chairs an e-mail pointing out two highlights from this weekend's polls: "Four in 10 registered voters say they've been contacted recently on a candidate's behalf, up from three in 10 two weeks ago. And it could be that the Republicans' vaunted machine is a bit better tuned: Among those who've been contacted, three in 10 say they've been asked only to vote for a Republican, two in 10 only for a Democrat. The rest have been approached by both sides. From Pew:
40% of Republicans have been contacted by Republicans while just 34% of Democrats have been contacted by Democrats."
8. Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) predicts a 50/50 Senate. *** Will Jim Webb's turnout machine be similar to Tim Kaine's?
9. Borat is the run-away number film in America. It's not a pro-GOP film.
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