NRSC: No, Kyl Is Leading Among Early Voters

Responding to the DSCC memo about early voting in AZ, the NRSC released a counter-memo this afternoon claiming that its polling shows that Sen. Jon Kyl has a healthy lead over Dem Jim Pederson.

From the memo's author, Dr. Margaret Kenski: "My surprise was founded in the fact that since early October, we have polled 4,020 Arizona voters about the Senate race between Jon Kyl and Jim Pederson. Among the 1,933 who indicated they would vote early or had already done so, Senator Jon Kyl had a substantial lead."

The full memo is after the jump.

To Interested Parties:

I read with interest and some surprise a release from Harstad Strategic Research which headlined "Jim Pederson is leading among early voters in Arizona."

My surprise was founded in the fact that since early October, we have polled 4,020 Arizona voters about the Senate race between Jon Kyl and Jim Pederson. Among the 1,933 who indicated they would vote early or had already done so, Senator Jon Kyl had a substantial lead. The precise figures for these early voters' choice in the Senate trial ballot were:

46.9% Jon Kyl

38.3% Jim Pederson

2.8% Richard Mack

12.0% Refused to State

The demographics of our sample of early voters were normal with, for instance,

61.6% from Maricopa County

18.6% from Pima County

19.8% from the remaining 13 counties

47.7% Republicans

41.3% Democrats

10.9% Independent, NOP, Other

Moreover, our data indicates that the Senator's lead has been consistent throughout the month of October.

Margaret C Kenski, Ph.D.

Arizona Opinion