The Absentees: A Closer Look At NM 01

Here is a foundational story explaining Republican confidence in their early voting / absentee canvassing program this cycle: the way Republicans in Washington tell it, the last-minute infusion of staff from the RNC helped GOPer Brian Bilbray make up a significant deficit in absentee voting in the CA 50 special... and by election day, Republicans managed to outperform Democrats in that area. The notion that the national Republican turnout machine lifted Bilbray to victory is not universally shared. The NRCC, in particular, believes that Bilbray won the race because he was a better candidate than Democrat Francine Busby.

10/31's Wall Street Journal suggests that Republicans are outperforming Democrats in the arenas of early voting and absentee ballot collection. The article relied on an RNC document provided to the Journal as well as on interviews with Republican officials.

In the fiercely contested New Mexico district held by Republican Heather Wilson, the party says that the number of absentee ballots already requested by Republicans has almost reached the number requested in 2004 -- nearly 22,000 so far this year, compared with almost 24,000 in 2004. The party says it is on a pace to exceed 2004.

Democrats dispute the connotation of that entire paragraph.

Dems Have An Edge In The Raw Numbers

In Bernalillo Co, which covers the vast majority of the district, Democrats have a 1,000 vote edge in identified ballot returns.

According to Matt Farrauto, the executive dir. of the NM Dem party, 24,740 ballots have been requested by Democrats in Bernalillo, and 23,254 ballots have been requested by Republicans.

Early voting, too, favors Democrats in NM 01. According to Bernalillo County county clerk statistics, 8434 Democrats have voted early, compared to 6,041 Republicans and 1,864 others.

Farrauto: "Simply put, more Democrats have voted early and requested ballots than Republicans in CD 1."

...While GOPers Are Ahead Of '04 Pace


Here's the argument for Republican optimism: by any measure, their absentee/early voting effort is outpacing its 2004 performance. Districtwide, Dems have only a two point advantage.

In '04, Pres. Bush lost the congressional district by 3 percentage points, which equals about 9,000 votes.

Wilson, in '04, outperformed Bush by 17,000 votes even as Democrats managed a 14 percent advantage among early and absentee voters.

So being down, this cycle, by such a small percentage, means that the GOP's program is working well. [MARC AMBINDER ]

But it's not working as well as the Democratic program, and Wilson's race in '04 wasn't nearly as competitive as it is today. The ballot program for Democrats was focused on the presidential race. And Wilson managed to peel off about 20 percent of the Democratic vote. In '06, Republicans may have increased their raw numbers. But to prevent Wilson from losing, they need to over perform among Democrats.

A caveat: no one knows whether Democrats are casting 90 percent of their ballots -- or 80 percent of their ballots -- for Patsy Madrid. And maybe Republicans are casting more than 10 percent of their ballots for Madrid. But if there's a correlation between current polling and current early voting, then Wilson is in trouble.

Dropping Off

Dems say that 40 percent of voters in NM 01 who requested absentees were drop-offs -- that is, they voted in the presidential cycle but not in '02 -- while only 25 percent of Republican requesters were drop-off voters.

Fighting Shape?

Elsewhere, Democrats claim to be in fighting shape. In the two swing counties of Ohio, Democrats claim to have advantages in the thousands: 8,000 in Franklin Co., which encompasses OH 15 district held by Deborah Pryce, and 500 in Stark Co (which is represented by the safe Ralph Regula (R).)

In Indiana, Democrats claim to have a strong advantage; the DNC credits its early organizing efforts; the Dems claim to have received more absentee requests in that district than they did for the entire state in '04. (Caveat: Indiana wasn't competitive in '04.)

In Iowa, the Dems claim to have about 108K absentee ballots returned, compared to 74,838 for Repbulicans. About 70 percent of the entire absentee ballot universe have turned in ballots to date, while about 61% of Republicans who requested ballots have turned theirs in. Traditionally, Dems have had a stronger absentee program than Republicans in that state, and the Dems' 80K advantage in '04 wasn't enough to win that state.

Resources

Electionline.org has a full list of early and absentee ballot laws.
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Updated absentee numbers for IOWA
TEXAS
TENNESSEE
FLORIDA (Hotline reporting, 11/1)