December 2006

Hotline founder Doug Bailey was part of Gerald Ford's campaign inner-circle in the '76 general election campaign that saw Ford make a near-miraculous comeback from 31 points down. We've asked Bailey to pen his remembrances of Ford.

John Deardourff and I prepared the general election advertising for President Ford in 1976. It was the easiest job we ever had.

Imagine the luxury of a political consultant whose client (1) is President of the United States but had never run for anything bigger than a congressional district in Grand Rapids – and (2) is an honest, candid, simple, straight-forward, believable guy.

America had a president it didn’t know, so our job was to introduce the people to their president, his wife, their children – who they were, where they came from, what they were like. And to do so in a compelling way, all we really had to do was part the curtains and let Jerry Ford be Jerry Ford. He would never have allowed us to make him be anyone else anyway. He was who he was.

Some found him less than a scintillating intellect, even though he knew more about how government works (and the budget, for example) than any president before or since.

But all found him authentic. You watched him and listened to him and you felt you knew the man. He was the anti-Nixon. He inspired the confidence that you knew him. And I can assure you he was exactly the same man with the camera on or off. For good or bad, what you saw was what you got. And after Nixon, that was a treat.

With all the media talk about how the pardon may have cost him the election (it probably did, but it was the right thing to do, and he did it because it was the right thing to do), it’s worth remembering all in the minds of voters in 1976.

That election came after eleven years of downward spiral for the American spirit: the assassinations of JFK, Bobby, and Martin Luther King; the civil rights riots that followed; Vietnam (with 59,000 Americans dead); the resignation in disgrace of a Vice-President; Watergate; and the resignation in disgrace of a President.

And yet by the end of the campaign much of the country was singing “I’m feeling good about America.” The reason was this wonderfully simple and calm and decent and honest man, who gave us reason to hope again.

Maybe it’s time we go looking again for another president who doesn’t crave the job! [DOUG BAILEY]

Polling firms, it seems, don’t even take the holidays off. Two new polls this week examine the Presidential primary fields, and for one front-runner, the news is decidedly mixed.

That front-runner is Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), who stands, depending on which poll you believe, in first place among likely Democratic caucus goers, or in fourth among the same group. A poll out this week from ARG, a NH-based firm who doesn't regularly polls IA Dems and who has done work for Republican candidates in the past, shows Clinton with 31% of the vote, besting ex-Sen. John Edwards’ (D-NC) 20%, the 17% who prefer IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) and 10% who say they want Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). The poll was conducted 12/19-23 and surveyed 600 likely caucus-goers.

FWIW, there's not an Iowa Dem Caucus poll we have heard about, public or private, that has had Clinton in first.

Meanwhile, a poll for KCCI-TV by Research 2000 released 12/21, shows the same top four candidates, but in a very different order. Edwards and Obama each command 22% of the vote, with Vilsack at 12% and Clinton trailing the pack at 10%. That poll interviewed 400 likely caucus-goers.

The Republican side of the two IA polls shows the two front-runners, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) splitting leads, though both are within the margin of error. KCCI and R2K have McCain up 27% to 26%, while ARG has Giuliani up 28% to 26%. The ARG poll shows McCain leading big among independents while Giuliani has a large lead among Republicans.

Big differences between the two GOP polls come in runners-up. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) clocks in with 18% in the ARG poll, while MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) tie in fourth place with 6%. The KCCI poll has Romney with 9% in third place and Gingrich with 7%. In that survey, Hagel didn’t even make the cut on the questionnaire. [REID WILSON].

The new Census Bureau 2006 state population estimates are out and the numbers offer some insight into the post-2010 Census reapportionment of congressional seats. While it’s still too early to predict exactly which states are gainers and losers, a few things are already clear.

According to an analysis by Polidata, a political data consulting firm, seven states are all but certain to lose at least one seat: Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Another six states are all but certain to gain at least one seat: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Texas and Utah.

A few other interesting projections from Polidata: Texas could pick up as many as 4 congressional seats; New York and Ohio could lose 2 seats. California, for the first time since statehood, may not pick up any seats.

Polidata’s Clark Bensen also observes that Florida (currently with 25 seats) is now poised to replace New York (29 seats) as the third most populous state – and that both states might end up with 27-member delegations when the dust settles after reapportionment.

Sixty years ago, no one would have believed that Florida and New York might one day have House delegations of equal size. In the 1940s, the New York delegation was a 45-member congressional powerhouse while Florida was a puny 6-seat weakling. But between 1942 and 2002, Florida gained 19 seats while New York lost 16.

Much of Florida’s surge in congressional clout has been carved directly out of New York’s hide; out-migration from New York to Florida has been a prime contributor to Florida’s growth. The 2000 Census revealed that, between 1995 and 2000 alone, 308,000 people moved from New York to Florida – the largest state-to-state flow in the U.S. At last count, nearly 1.5 million Floridians were born in New York, including five members from Florida’s current House delegation. Two are Democrats born in Queens: Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Robert Wexler. The three Republicans were born outside New York City: Ginny Brown-Waite was born in Albany, John Mica in Binghamton and Dave Weldon in Amityville.

Among the New York five, Brown-Waite (who is a former New York state Senate staffer) ranks as an aberration. She represents a Gulf Coast-side district located just north of Tampa, while the other four represent districts on Florida’s Atlantic Ocean side. Traditionally, the Gulf Coast has been a haven for Midwesterners – they took Interstate 75 south to Florida for vacation and later resettled close to that familiar corridor. Until recently New Yorkers (and other East Coasters) tended to follow a different path, settling on the Atlantic Coast along I-95, in places like Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

The 2006 election was one Kansas Republicans would like to forget. At the statewide level, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius easily won reelection, former state GOP chairman Mark Parkinson switched parties and ran on her ticket as lieutenant governor, and GOP Attorney General Phill Kline was defeated. In Congress, Republican Jim Ryun lost his bid for a sixth term while perennially endangered Democrat Dennis Moore scored a career-high 65 percent victory.

In Western Kansas, however, Republican Congressman Jerry Moran won a 79 percent landslide. How did he manage to do so well while his party colleagues floundered? Maybe it’s the annual “Big First Listening Tour”. Every year since his election to Congress in 1996, Moran has made it his mission to schedule events in each of the 69 counties in his very big 1st Congressional District. This is no simple task: At 57,576 square miles in size, his district is roughly the size of Illinois. It runs 350 miles east from the Colorado border, about the distance from New York City to Richmond, Virginia.

Moran is already well into his eleventh annual tour – in response to the uncertainty of a new congressional voting schedule, Moran began his 2007 listening tour in early December. After a brief Christmas break, he’s scheduled to visit three counties on December 27th (including the Hungry Hunter restaurant in Lincoln County), four counties on the 28th (including the Swedish-American State Bank in Republic County), and four more counties before the end of the year. No events are scheduled for New Year’s Day, but Moran’s got six more counties squeezed in before the 110th Congress convenes on January 4. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]

In a note to his e-mail list entitled "The big decision," John Edwards asked his internet community Saturday to rally for his all-but-announced campaign. Supporters are asked to e-mail Edwards at a new domain -- "changeforamerica.com" -- instead of the address he's been using for the past few years, OneAmericaCommittee.com.

The Web site for Ready To Change America includes a "town hall" style tour schedule across the presidential primary states. Edwards will head to Des Moines, IA, on 12/28, Portsmouth, NH and Reno, NV on 12/29, West Columbia, SC and Chapel Hill, NC on 12/30. Although many of those events were already publicized by local state parties, this is the first attributed announcement that links all the appearances together.

Some excerpts from Edwards "big decision" e-mail:

"Now, we have a big decision to make -- and I do mean we. I'm getting ready to take this effort to the next level - to bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming...

"But this is our effort, and we can only succeed if we're all in it together. So before I make a final decision, I need to hear from you: Are you ready? If you're ready to take this to the next level, and launch a renewed national effort to change America, send me a note and let me know: JohnEdwards@readytochangeamerica.com...

"I can't promise you where this will ultimately lead. But I can promise you this: if you're on board, we'll launch a renewed commitment to change our country from the bottom up... Stay tuned: I'll let you know what we decide early next week."

'Twas the week before '07, and all through DC, Democrats were stirring. How could they not be?

Top staffers announced by '08ers with care, in hopes that the benjamins soon would be there.

Rahm and Schumer were nestled all snug in new power, while Reid and Pelosi prepared their first 100 hours.

And HRC in her 'kerchief, and Edwards in his cap, took a long, hard look at the electoral map.

When out in the '08 field there arose such a clatter, Bill sprang from his bed to see what was the matter. When, what to the president's eyes should appear, but the junior Obama's political premiere!

First, Warner! Then, Allen! Now, Frist, even Evan! Who'll run? Richardson, Kerry, Dodd, and Joe Biden?

To the top of White Mountain, to Iowa Falls! Now dash away, dash away, dash away all! Barack's eyes, how they twinkled! His smile, how merry! Who else could bring a sell-out crowd to NH's Derry?

And we heard him exclaim as he sped out of sight, Happy Holidays to all, see you on caucus night!

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

If Facebook was originally intended for college students, and universities typically lean left-of-center, one might surmise that it's lonely for college conservatives on the social networking site.

But a state-by-state analysis of College Democrats and Republicans on Facebook proved otherwise. There were almost an equal number of organized College Dems and Republicans groups. And of the 66 College groups listed for all 50 states and D.C. (Out of 102, 36 states didn't have a CR or CD), College Republican groups had 70 more people on average than College Democrats.

That difference was in no small part because of the Missouri College Republicans group, which is the largest of its kind in the U.S. with almost 3,000 members. New York College Democrats is the second largest group with 1,100 members.

MO CR's had an active recruitment effort for 2006 on Facebook under outgoing chair Justin Smith. Smith said he increased his Facebook group's membership by personally identifying 8,000 College Republicans in the state since last August.

"The trend I saw was that there were many Republicans and conservatives on college campuses, you just have to go find them," he said.

To find potential members, the Missouri College Republicans team meticulously searched for conservative rhetoric on students' profiles, for example searching by political affiliation and looking for quotes by famous Republicans.

Though only about 1/3 of these students joined the statewide facebook group, the effort yielded a large list of conservative-leaning students by college. Smith's group ended up giving out that list to almost half the universities in the state for on campus recruitment this past fall [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

The Hotline received the following holiday card from Americans for Tax Reform (well, from Grover. G. Norquist and the Staff of Americans for Tax Reform):

And On The Inside, a list of who's "naughty" vs. who's "nice."

Today, we give you the best political news of the year. From the most overhyped to the least-watched... stories to reminice about during the holidays.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

To Capitol Hill I Go
(to the tune of "To Grandmother's House We Go")

I'm a big giver
And they get the goods:
To Capitol Hill I go.
For red and blue
The green gets through
To Capitol Shills I know.
Out-of-state earmarks
For out-of-state sharks
All done for the folks back home.
A protection game
By any name
Right under, rotunda, the Dome.

It's House Speaker Pelosi
(to the tune of "Dominick the Donkey")

Hey chingedy ching (he haw he haw) it's House Speaker Pelosi
chingedy ching (he haw he haw) the Italian Speaker Pelosi.
(la la la-la la-la la la la la)
(la la la-la la-la la-ee-oh-da)

Murtha's got a little friend,
her name is Nancy P.
The cutest little donkey,
You never see her kick.
But when she visits her paisons,
With orders she will be.
Because the Democrats cannot win without unity.

Draft Obama changed its status late this morning from 527 to non-connected PAC after a senior adviser to the organization sought counsel from the FEC, which will now take from the IRS the regulatory authority over the committee.

The group had been reported on Monday as "not a political organization," but the adviser contacted the IRS last week, and an official there said it should be "operating as a 527."

"We are completely following the law, 100 percent," the adviser said, adding that the group has had no contact with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), his staff or his team.

If an organization is to become a PAC, it has within 10 days of raising its first $1000 to file with FEC, and Draft Obama says it has followed procedures correctly. An online donations page was added to DraftObama.org just this Saturday, and the organization held a fundraiser at Local 16 on Tuesday night charging $25 per person. [ERIN MCPIKE]

FoleyCacaSwingVoter, And The Veep Shoots A Guy In The Face

Now, the highlights of your year in politics:

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Greens Respond To Froehlich

JohnCombest.com -- CDT Politics Blog: Democrats Might Be Key In Stem Cell's Second Round

NhNewslinks.com -- Granite Status: Big Names Seek State GOP, Dem Posts

Quorum Report -- SELBY: Travis Republicans Look For Better Luck In '08

Sayfie's Review -- AP: Jennings Presses Election Challenge In Congress And The Courts

WisPolitics.com -- Mad City Soap Box: Who Was The Top Political Newsmaker Of 2006?

After yesterday's post, "We don't know what the heck this is," we have an answer...

From: Draft Richardson Nevada [mailto:draft.richardson.nevada@gmail.com]
Sent: Thu 12/21/2006 8:00 AM
To: draft.richardson.nevada@gmail.com
Subject: RELEASE: NEVADANS CALL FOR RICHARDSON CANDIDACY

NEVADANS CALL FOR RICHARDSON CANDIDACY

Form "Draft Richardson Committee"

Las Vegas , NV— Seventy prominent Nevadans called on New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson today to seek the Presidency in 2008.

"Nevada will be a lynch-pin in the Democratic Presidential nomination process in 2008 and many Nevadans believe Bill Richardson is the best choice to lead our party", stated "Draft Committee" Chairman Reynaldo Martinez, a resident of Incline Village, and former chief of staff to U.S. Senator Harry Reid. Earlier this year the Democratic National Committee (DNC) designated Nevada to be the second state to hold a nomination contest on January 19, 2008 following Iowa (caucus) January 14 and before New Hampshire (primary) January 22, and South Carolina (primary) January 29. Nevada will be a "caucus" state and the State Democratic Party will sponsor and organize the state-wide event. Martinez added, "Bill Richardson is the Favorite-Son of the West, and the West beginning with Nevada can lead the Democrats to the White House in 2008."

Joining Martinez as Co-Chairs of the "Draft Committee" are Hannah Irsfeld of Las Vegas, Judge John F. Mendoza of Las Vegas and Robert McGowan of Reno. Other notable Nevadans calling for Richardson to run include; Carlos Blumberg (Las Vegas), Jeff Taguchi (Las Vegas), John Henry Brebbia (Las Vegas), Dr. R.D. Prabhu (Las Vegas), Horacio Lopez (Las Vegas), Vicki Hulbert (N. Las Vegas), Lee Wastell (Las Vegas), Don Ellis (Henderson), Kim Ellis (Henderson), Eva Garcia (Las Vegas), John Medina (N. Las Vegas), Jose G. Troncoso (Las Vegas), Holly Johnson Troncoso (Las Vegas), Robert Agonia (Las Vegas), Larry Mason (Las Vegas), Marcelo Napoli (Las Vegas), Dr. Rene Cantu (Henderson), Dr. Letitia Medina Worth (Las Vegas), Dr. Lata Shete (Las Vegas), George T. Lopez (Las Vegas), Michael Pariente (Las Vegas), Sandy Ellis (Henderson), Bob Ellis (Henderson), Curtis Anderson (Las Vegas), Dr. Agustin Orci (Las Vegas), Alejandro Alverez (Las Vegas), Sylvia Lazos (Las Vegas), Pat Hodges (Las Vegas), Gloria Martinez Ferree (Henderson), Hugh Ferree (Las Vegas), Mary Geidlel (Las Vegas), Xavier Rivas (Las Vegas), Ismael and Monica Sanchez (Las Vegas), Linda Smith (Las Vegas), Troy Wade (Las Vegas), Fernando Romero (Las Vegas), Earl and Susan Greene (Las Vegas), James E. Rogers (Las Vegas), Harlane and Racquel Sumida (Henderson), Maria Sefchick (Reno), Marino De La Rosa (Reno), Geralda Miller (Reno), Rosemary Flores (Henderson), Vito De La Cruz (Reno), Gus Ramos (Las Vegas), Dr. Raquel Casas (Las Vegas), Lonnie Feemster (Sparks), Luisa Mendoza (Las Vegas), Mario Castro (Las Vegas), Miguel Castro (Las Vegas), Javier Trujillo (Las Vegas), Michael Reed (Reno), Theresa Navarro (Reno), Sherri Overstreet (Reno), Chris and Julie Wedge (Reno), Frederico Bannelos (Carson City), Rita McGeary (Reno), Luis and Emma Guzman (Sparks), Steve Heslop (Sparks), William Thorton (Reno), and Diane Sauer Martinez (Incline Village). The group includes African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, significant Democratic Party activists and environmentalists. (release).

Beset by questions about his committment to social conservatism, Gov. Mitt Romney today adds two validators to his team.

Gary Marx, the current exec. dir of the Judicial Confirmation Network and formerly the Bush-Cheney campaign's chief staff liaison to social conservatives, will join Gov. Mitt Romney's PAC as an adviser, a Romney aide said.

If Romney runs for pres, Marx, along with Romney aide Peter Flaherty, will be in charge of outreach to the Republican base and will advise Romney on his contacts with them. Marx is a vet of Focus on the Family's VA affiliate and has also worked with Ralph Reed when Reed hung his shingle at Century Strategies.

Also, Jay Sekulow, a constitutional lawyer who's argued numerous cases of import to social conservatives before the Supreme Court, has endorsed Romney and will serve as an adviser. Sekulow is chief counsel for the American Center for Law and Justice, although his endorsement does not mean that the organization is partial to Romney. Sekulow is close to Karl Rove and to virtually every conservative judicial luminary in the country. [MARC AMBINDER]

Last night's TV mainly concentrated on Pres. Bush's 12/20 presser and Iraq.

FNC's Baier: "Setting the tone for his speech about the new way forward in Iraq, soon after the knew year, President Bush conceded in an hour long news conference 2006 was a difficult year for U.S. troops and the Iraqi people. While the president said insurgents were successful in sparking sectarian
violence, setting back reconstruction and preventing stability, he added the U.S. enters the new year, quote clear eyed about the challenges ahead" ("Special Report," 12/20).

MSNBC's Shuster: "In the face of the tough news coming out of Iraq, President Bush today tried to take control of the storyline by underscoring his resolve and confidence. ... In his last scheduled news conference of the year, President Bush today played the role of cheerleader in chief" ("Hardball," 12/20).

CNN's J. King, on Bush: "He is in a tough box, because he's not ready to answer the big questions right now: Will he send in more troops? Will he establish benchmarks for getting the troops out? He's not ready for that. Look for that in the first week of January" ("AC 360," 12/20).

New Republic's Crowley: "There's something very unsettling about what we're starting to hear from Bush. For so long, his mantra was that he was taking his lead from the commanders on the ground, and that was this ... ultimate card he could play of credibility. ... You thought things couldn't get worse, and now you have a situation where, gosh, he's overruling the people who really do seem to know best. And we're sort of in uncharted territory here, if you ask me" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20).

Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI): "I don't support the surge. I think it would be a mistake to get in deeper into Iraq. When General Abizaid was in front of us, he didn't support the reductions which we were proposing in our forces in Iraq. But he also very strongly opposed increasing the number of forces in Iraq because he basically said that would take the pressure off the Iraqis to reach a political settlement" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/20).

NBC's Miklaszewski, asked if the American public will support a surge in troop levels in Baghdad: "I think it would be a very tough sell politically and the U.S. military would have to be clearly on board before the public is going to buy that argument" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/20).

AN INSIDE VIEW

There was also much discussion on Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) 12/20 appearance on "The View."

HRC, asked if she would support Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) if she decides not to run for WH '08: "Well, you know, I'm just going to wait and see how all this develops, you know?"

On Obama: "He is a terrific guy. And we're going to have a lot of good people running in the Democratic primary, and I think that's exciting because in most elections, you know, it was kind of expected somebody on one side or the other was going to be the nominee and maybe the likely winner. This time, that's all thrown up. And I think that's good. I think everybody who wants to compete should compete."

Asked if it would help to have a woman in the WH: "We will never know that until somebody tries because it's such a leap of faith. And I am well aware of that. It is, like, way out there."

On poll numbers showing here ahead of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: "I heard that. ... Well, you know, it's very early" (ABC, 12/20).

Salon.com's Joan Walsh, on HRC's appearance: "I think she's playing to her strong suit, which will be women voters, and she went to a very, very receptive, as you said, fawning audience. ... You know, she's going to where she's loved and she's going to play it for a while. ... I think the worst thing for Hillary Clinton right now would be to have an air of inevitability about her because that would bring all of the Hillary haters out of the closet. ... I think voters don't like Hillary when she's Princess Hillary. They love her when she's, you know, scorned and victimized Hillary, sadly" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20).

FNC's Schwartz: "Daytime is becoming part of a political strategy" ("O'Reilly Factor," 12/20).

Atlantic Monthly's Green: "I think she ought to win a daytime Emmy Award for fielding such inane questions" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/20). [KATHERINE LEHR]

Anyone have any guesses? Several of us received this e-mail tonight. The NV Dem party has no idea, either.

-----------

From: 2008 Presidential Draft Committee [mailto:2008.presidential.draft.committee@gmail.com]
Sent: Wed 12/20/2006 5:05 PM
To: 2008.presidential.draft.committee@gmail.com
Subject: ADVISORY: NEVADANS TO MAKE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT 2008

* *

December 20, 2006 Contact Information Available Tomorrow at Time of Release

*MEDIA ADVISORY*

*NEVADANS TO MAKE MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT 2008 *

* *

Las Vegas, NV-More than 50 prominent Nevadans will make a major announcement
on Thursday, December 21, regarding the 2008 Presidential Campaign. A "Draft
Committee" has been formed and will announce their plans and members at that
time. Nevada is scheduled to be the second state in the nation to hold a
nomination contest, a caucus, as part of the 2008 road to the White House.

*WHO: Draft Committee *

* *

*WHAT: Release Regarding the 2008 Democratic Nomination *

* *

*WHEN: Thursday, December 21, 2006 *

* *

'Tis the season to remind friends and family you care about them -- at least in a greeting card. And we just received one from ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D).

Yet since his was sent as an e-card, might he have a wish that stretches beyond his inner-circle?

Dear Friends,

We wanted to take just a moment out of your busy holiday schedule to wish you and your family a happy holiday season and best wishes for a new year full of hope, health and happiness.

Mark, Lisa, Madison, Gillian and Eliza

Join us today, as we choose the best political ads of the year.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The "netroots" are back.

-- Emboldened by their role in the Dem sweep, liberal bloggers are now targeting Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-CA 10), a Bay Area centrist, pro-business Dem in the mold of Joe Lieberman.

-- Her crime? Bloggers perceive her as too cozy with Pres. Bush and big business. And as chair of the New Democratic Coalition, she's been a proponent of free-trade agreements to the ire of the populist crowd.

-- CA was fertile ground for lefty primary opposition in '06. At the other end of the state, Rep. Jane Harman (D) received a spirited and well-funded challenge from anti-war activist Marcy Winograd (D).

-- The '01 redistricting made Tauscher's district more receptive to a challenge from the left. She lost GOP-leaning suburbanites in the San Ramon Valley, while gaining working-class voters in Solano Co.

-- Nancy Pelosi could be the key to defusing this brewing intraparty divide. Her Silicon Valley ties and credibility with the left could dissuade potential opponents from running.

-- This episode could provide a new test of Pelosi's sympathies. Will she side with the bloggers or the business-friendly wing of the caucus? [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

1. Here's an interesting NH public radio clip of an interview with new NH Rep. Paul Hodes.

At about 5:35 into Part One of the interview, Hodes talks about the lobbying campaign on the Hoyer/Murtha race. Doesn’t name any names, but openly discusses how he heavily he was pressured and how he was told several times that he was making a “terrible mistake.”

2. Remember how Sen. Joe Lieberman's campaign claimed their web site had been hacked on the day of his primary against Ned Lamont? Whatever happened, it wasn't the Lamont campaign's fault.

The architect of Sen. Evan Bayh’s presidential finance team, Nancy Jacobson, has found another buyer.

She’s joining the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton as a senior adviser and will work hand-in-hand with Clinton’s nat’l finance director, Jonathan Mantz. Jacobson’s deputy for Bayh, Stefanie Freeman, will become Clinton’s deputy finance director.

Jacobson is one the Democratic Party’s top fundraisers and relationship cultivators. She is a former finance director of the DNC. Two years ago, Bayh tasked her with building a self-sustaining fundraising organization that would allow him to opt-out of the federal public financing system.

She focused on finding new, upper middle class Democrats who became active in the party after the Clintons had left office. She recruited young entrepreneurs who appreciated Bayh’s tax-cutting resume as an Indiana governor.

Jacobson is married to Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief pollster. For years, there had been an informal firewall between the couple's private and professional lives. No longer.

The next big recruit from Bayh's world is Kory Mitchell, who handled the day-to-day affairs of Bayh's finance team. [MARC AMBINDER]

Trying to come up with a final column of the year to sum everything up is never easy. Sometimes, I've gone the "awards" route, and in other years, I've looked to the future. But this year, I thought I'd experiment with a tribute of sorts to Paul Simon's "50 Ways to Leave Your Lover" with the twist, "50 ways I learned from 2006."

Attention media elitists: Alabama may be home to former state Supreme Court judge Roy Moore, but that doesn't mean state Republicans bring God with them to the voting booth.

Alaska wanted change, but not the past -- former Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles. It wanted the future -- Republican Gov.-elect Sarah Palin. A lesson for legacies running in '08?

Although Arizona is filled with swing voters, they won't buy into a candidate who says he's "independent" but whose previous job was state party chair.

Democrats should still believe in a place called Hope, because Arkansas is still bluer than the rest of the South.

It's a pretty simple formula for statewide success in California: The moderate Democratic general-election nominee will always triumph. Congrats to Arnold Shriver.

Democrats ought not get cocky in Colorado. Their recent success has everything to do with the party nominating more centrist candidates. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue reading ON THE TRAIL.

What's happening to GOPers in IA? Why is the state so politically quixotic? Does the Ames straw poll really matter? Before he gets nabbed by an '08 GOP (and he's being recruited by several), The Hotline interviewed Nick Ryan, campaign mgr. for Jim Nussle's IA GOV bid.

HOTLINE: How much danger is there that the Iowa GOP is becoming a regional party within the state?

Nick Ryan: The dominant party in Iowa is no party -- and it grows every passing year. Republicans historically always perform well in Western Iowa, and there is no doubt that as a party we are suffering in our performance in Eastern Iowa. Looking at central and eastern Iowa -- I think Republicans can be encouraged that the right candidates CAN win there. Absent the 2006 wave, both congressional seats in eastern Iowa were held by Republicans -- by two very good, effective congressmen (Nussle and Leach). At every level -- be it federal, state or local - by recruiting good candidates we can win. Remember, the dominant party in Eastern Iowa is no party - not Republican or Democrat.

How did Bush win in 04 and Dems succeed in 00, 02 and 06?

The President and his team ran an incredibly effective campaign in 2004. Plus, Republicans were as unified as I have ever seen in campaigning for a candidate. In statewide elections, Dems did well in Iowa in 00, 02 and 06. However, in 00 and 02, the results were not as strong for Dems. You will remember that in 02, the Dems placed big bets on challengers to Nussle, Leach and Latham -- and came up losers in all matches. That example illustrates the paradox that is Iowa -- people here vote for the person, not the party. And that explains how Harkin and Vilsack can win in the same year by comfortable margins - and so can Republican congressional candidates.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Whitewater edition

JohnCombest.com -- SNL: Lawmakers Seek To Undo Stem-Cell Amendment

NhNewslinks.com -- A NH Liberal's Christmas Holiday Form Letter

Quorum Report -- Two Advance To Runoff To Fill Dead Legislator's Seat

Sayfie's Review -- Disputed Sarasota Election Case Goes Back To Court

WisPolitics.com -- Mad City Soap Box: Who Was The Top Political Newsmaker Of 2006?

The Miss U.S.A. scandal was the talk of the TV last night, but the Bush admin.'s support of an increase in US troop levels in Iraq was also discussed.

MSNBC's Shuster: "In the wake of a new Pentagon report saying the number of insurgent attacks on U.S. troops keeps rising and the chaos across Iraq is growing, today White House officials, for the first time, publicly confirmed that the Bush administration is considering a U.S. troop increase. Press Secretary Tony Snow denied, however, a front page story in today's Washington Post reporting a rift over that proposal between the president and the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff" ("Hardball," 12/19).

CNN's Henry: "Senior administration officials confirming to CNN that the president has asked his incoming new secretary of defense, Robert Gates, to ... increase both the size of the Army and the Marines. White House officials, though, cautioning that this is not a confirmation of the president approving a so-called surge of up to 30,000 or 40,000 additional U.S. troops to actually go directly to Iraq. ... But there's also no denying that this could help the president lay the groundwork for this surge in troops to Iraq" ("AC 360," 12/19).

CNN's Starr: "President Bush's announcement that he is supporting now expanding the size of the permanent active duty military really comes as no surprise. That is something that the military wanted to see happen. But make no mistake, it will take years to recruit and train and get the money for all of the equipment, to substantially increase the permanent size of the active duty military. That is a longer term problem and a longer term solution. The issue on the table right now, though, is would more troops in the near term for Iraq really make any difference?" ("Situation Room," 12/19).

CNN's J. King: "One of the big questions in town has been will there be real policy change when Rumsfeld goes out and Gates comes in? Here is more evidence that yes, there will be more policy change. ... The fact that it's being leaked that there's a disagreement, a difference between the Joint Chiefs is extraordinary and again, I think a sign that Donald Rumsfeld has left and the chiefs feel more emboldened to speak out publicly" ("Situation Room," 12/19).

Retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey: "Putting another 13,000, 15,000 will not change conditions at all. So I think it's an unwise course of action" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/19). [KATHERINE LEHR]

Ex-VA Gov. / RNC chair Jim Gilmore (R) has decided to open a presidential exploratory committee.

His positioning is not ... subtle.

“A void exists,” Mr. Gilmore said in an interview. “There is just no conservative right now who can mount a national campaign.”

The Draft Gilmore folks exult:

www.DraftGilmore.org is excited to announce that former Governor Jim Gilmore will explore a presidential bid in 2008. We believe Jim Gilmore is the only true conservative candidate in the 2008 presidential race. As Governor, he slashed taxes for hard-working Virginia families. As the leader of national security think tanks, Gilmore traveled the United States discussing national security. Gilmore has been and continues to be an advocate for deficit reductions, spending limits, and national security. Jim Gilmore is the next generation of conservatism. We believe only he can realign the conservative movement in America.

“We’re very pleased with tonight’s fundraiser turnout," says Sunny Mindel, Giuliani's spokesperson. "This will provide the seed money to continue to explore a potential run for the White House.”

Just today, Giuliani launched his exploratory committee website.

And here's a preview of the issues he'll run on.

Join us today, as we dish out hotties for worst winner of '06.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Few Say They Would Have Trouble...

JohnCombest.com -- Human Events: Missouri's Brian Johnson: The Case For Mike Pence In 2008

NhNewslinks.com -- # Hodes Vows Support For '100 Hours'

Quorum Report -- SAEN: Rep. Reyes Stumbles On Key Terror Issue

Sayfie's Review -- Tribune: Future Governor Stops In Tampa

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle: Take New Look at Civil Unions

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will announce at the beginning of the new year that he has secured staffs in both Iowa and New Hampshire and planned trips to both states (Hotline sources, 12/19). Also, his fundraiser Roy Bailey said Giuliani "is considering creating a variation of the fundraising network set up by Bush, with more tiers of donors and a baseball theme."

Also in NH, Dem activists say they're getting postcards from Sen. Barack Obama. On one side there's a photo with a similing Obama among the crowd with a return addres for Obama 2010 campaign in Chicago on the other side. Here's what the postcard said:

Dear Friend,
What a day last Sunday was! Thanks so much for joining me in Manchester to celebrate the wonderful success of New Hampshire Democrats in last month’s election. The energy and enthusiasm I encountered gave me great hope that the movement for change that started in the Granite State has the power to sweep across the nation.

This election represented the beginning of a movement to create a different kind of politics in this country – a politics that stops dwelling on what divides us and starts focusing on what unites us so that that we can tackle the great challenges of our time, whether it’s the war in Iraq, access to quality health care for everyone, educating our children or an energy policy that reduces our dependence on foreign oil.

Americans are ready to turn the page. This is our moment to write our own chapter in the history books, and this is our time to lead. It all started in New Hampshire, but we still have a long way to go, so please visit BarackObama.com to see how you can join me in this effort in the days and months to come.

Sincerely,
Barack Obama
U.S. Senator
(Hotline sources).

Gov. Mitt Romney spoke to the Boston press corps for the first time since Thanksgiving on Bay Windows-gate and said he's for an national employment verification system for employers to vet employees.

South Carolina social conservatives are concerned about Romney's 1994 comments not on "rights," but rather his words on "Reagan." National Review reports Romney tried to distance himself from Regan during the 1994 Senate debates, and the comments are circulating among social conservatives in South Carolina without much media attention.

Primary Source reports, and Romney's camp confirmed to us, that he's will be in NH tomorrow with some events that might be open to the press. Primary Source writes Romney will meet with smaller groups of NH GOP activists because there's concern he might be "overexposed," and therefore is opting for more intimate gatherings.

Sen. Sam Brownback meets with conservative activists in Dubuque and Davenport today. Then he'll head to Florida tomorrow to speak at the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC luncheon and meet with Miami Republicans. On Thursday, 12/21, Brownback travels to the Greenville, SC, area. He also removed his block on a Michigan Judge who attended a friend's same-sex commitment ceremony because he said he didn't realize his suggestion that the judge recuse herself from same-sex union cases raised constitutional questions.

Per a noon release from his exploratory committee, Sen. John McCain announced that he's brought on MI-03 GOP Chair Dave Dishaw as his grassroots chair for the state. Dishaw was the MI Chair for Bush-Cheney '04 grassroots operations and recently was finance chair for Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land's re-election campaign.

NM Gov. Bill Richardson was in NH yesterday, and he's considering a request from the Save Dafur Coalition to go to Africa to persude the Sudanese government to accept a peacekeeping force [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

They include Henry Kravis, a founding partner of the KKR conglomerate, John Lehman, the 9/11 commissioner and ex-Navy sec. and Woody Johnson, the owner of the New York Jets.

McCain's campaign will not cop to this, but it's fairly clear they want this muscle-flexing to scare uncommitted donors away from signing up with other campaigns. The constellation of New York fundraising stars, in particular, poses a challenge to Giuliani. McCain's team believes that if Giuliani has trouble raising money, he will decide not to run.

On the downside, bragging about a large finance team raises expectations for how much they'll collect before the end of the first financial quarter of '07.

McCain is expected to forgo federal matching funds for both the primary and general election. McCain can tap each donor for a maximum of $2,100 per race, and he can raise money for both the primaries and the general election race at the same time.

A side note: recall that Gov. Mitt Romney's aides, when discussing their candidate's foreign policy education, let it be known that Romney had spent time with Kissinger.

Here's what McCain, in a statement he'll release later, has to say about his team: “I am honored to have the support of so many talented and experienced professionals. New York is the heart of the financial world, and this team’s work on behalf of my exploratory committee will be indispensable as we move forward.” [MARC AMBINDER] The full list follows the jump.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) may not have decided whether now is the time for him to seek the White House, but Draft Obama sure has.

A 60-second ad urging the junior senator to enter the race will debut in New Hampshire on Wednesday and run through Christmas Day. It is also making its way onto Washington, D.C., airwaves this week. The Jackson Group's Bud Jackson, who produced the ad gratis, confirmed it is the first TV spot of the 2008 election.

"We can replace fear with hope" flashes on the screen as the ad begins; it's a line that underscores what many political analysts deem Obama's top selling point. And Obama's second book -- "The Audacity of Hope," echoing the same theme -- is once again perched on top of the New York Times' best-seller list. Jackson said that although he's used the line in other campaign spots, it was an easy choice for the TV spot.

New Hampshire played host to Obama last weekend in what was reported by the New Hampshire Union Leader as a "whirlwind debut." But MSNBC.com national affairs writer Tom Curry found that the feverish media entourage that followed Obama put off the New Hampshirites who are used to being "courted" and "want more substance when he returns."

That's precisely why Jackson, who said he may not even end up working for a presidential candidate in 2008, got on board to produce the spot.

"Obama is potentially the right candidate at the right time," Jackson said, adding that Democrats deserve to hear more from him.

Jackson and consultant John Hlinko, who is also a new addition to Draft Obama, were part of the successful movement that pulled retired Gen. Wesley Clark into the 2004 Democratic presidential primary. One of Jackson's claims to fame is that he produced the first-ever presidential draft ad -- a similar ad to this year's Obama spot, but touting Clark.[ERIN MCPIKE]

Continue reading Ad Spotlight

Newt Gingrich might be onto something. Appearing on "Meet," he said that if McCain, Romney or Giuliani "seals it off by Labor Day, my announcing now wouldn't make any difference." In WH '08, should longshots wait before wading in, while frontrunners announce early?

Early '07 will be all about frontrunners who need extra months to work out kinks (HRC's spontanaiety, Obama's experience, Rudy's right flank, Romney's religion)? If so, should 2nd-tier candidates relax and let the fields shake out before wasting $50M?

The Jimmy Carter-created C.W. for longshots was to get in early to build a warchest and prove viability. But as we learned in both '99/00 and '03/'04, money follows buzz (see McCain, Dean and Clark). And while none of them won their party's nod, they got closer than any of the tortoise/longshot hopefuls of those cycles.

None of which explains Bayh's decision to drop out. With $10M+ in the bank, Bayh's departure leaves an electability void likely to be filled by Edwards or, perhaps, some "new" fall flavor, like maybe Mark Warner?

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) will be the next DCCC Chair, as announced by incoming Speaker Pelosi's office this morning.

Talk of the missing Mt. Hood climbers dominated TV coverage last night, but Iraq and new Defense Sec. Robert Gates were close seconds.

FNC's Emanuel: "Robert Gates became the 22nd secretary of defense today and providing fresh
perspective on Iraq is at the top of his priority list. The secretary says he's planning to travel to Iraq quite soon to speak with U.S. military commanders" ("Special Report," 12/18).

CNN's Malveaux: "Earlier today, President Bush stood shoulder to shoulder with the man who, of course, will be advising him on any kind of change in tactics regarding Iraq. The president attending the official signing in ceremony of his new secretary of defense, Bob Gates. Now, we expect some sort of announcement in a couple of weeks, the new year, of course, on possible changes in those tactics. But already we're hearing a change at least in tone with the administration. It was Gates, during his confirmation hearing, who gave a real blunt assessment of the state of the war, saying, in fact, that we are not winning" ("Situation Room," 12/18).

GOP strategist Terry Holt, on Gates: "You know we're at war in Afghanistan and we're in a war in Iraq, but he goes into a war front in the Pentagon. There's still a fundamental and huge difference about what these groups of generals want to do in the world, how they want to grow their particular thiefdoms. And I think he's going to have his hands full, just with sorting out the bodies over at the Pentagon" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 12/18).

PBS' Holman: "The idea of dispatching another 20,000 soldiers and Marines, mainly to try to secure Baghdad, appeared to be gaining momentum. It even has its own name: 'surge.' And though Gates did not touch on the issue in his maiden speech, the surge debate filled newspaper headlines" ("Newshour," 12/18).

Malveaux, on ex-Sec/State Colin Powell's criticism of the war in Iraq: "Persuading Powell isn't a priority, the White House insisted, in its attempt to downplay his criticism. Aides say the president is weighing his numerous options for changing tactics in Iraq, following his consultations last week with Iraqi leaders and advisers at the Pentagon and State" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/18).

MSNBC's Carlson: "Colin Powell more than any other person probably apart from Bush himself, got us into the war in Iraq. His speech before the U.N. describing Saddam's weapons of mass destruction was the pivotal moment in the countdown to invasion. Bush could not have done it without him. So before Powell tells the rest of us what we already know about the disaster in Iraq, shouldn't he acknowledge his responsibility and take a moment to apologize?" ("Tucker," 12/18).

THE HOLLYWOOD VOTE

While appearing on last night's "Hardball," Matt Damon and Robert DeNiro were asked who they are rooting for in WH '08.

Damon: "Barack Obama."

DeNiro: "Well, I think of two people: Hillary Clinton and Obama."

Damon, asked if he would campaign for Obama: "Yes, I mean, I would support him strongly." [KATHERINE LEHR]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Obamarama - Few Say They Would Have Trouble...

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Medicaid Crucial Issue To Blunt's Future

NhNewslinks.com -- Republicans Sounding The Alarm

Quorum Report -- ROBINSON: Perry Wants More Line Items To Veto

Sayfie's Review -- Times: Crist Girds For Change In Cuba

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Hits Up Execs For Inaugural Cash

Before he dropped out, Sen. Evan Bayh put together an impressive political team to help run a presidential race. They're now free agents.

• Anita Dunn -- served as Bayh's chief consultant. Before the election, she signed on to Sen. Barack Obama's HopeFund PAC but is no longer affiliated. It's not clear whether Dunn will do a different campaign.


• Marc Farinella -- was exec. dir of Bayh's PAC.


• Paul Maslin -- no major Dem campaign needs a pollster right now, but Maslin has the nat'l and pres. experience.


• Dan Pfeiffer -- affable comm. dir for Bayh. Given that he's a veteran of Tom Daschle's campaign universe, it would not be a surprise if he joins the Obama camp in some capacity. That said, Pfeiffer hasn't made a decision yet/


• Nancy Jacobson -- the architect of Bayh's finances, she'll end up either with Sen. Hillary Clinton (her husband is Mark Penn), Barack Obama (many Bayh donors like Obama) or remain unaffiliated.


• Kory Mitchell -- the man in charge of putting together Bayh's plan to raise the tens of millions needed for a campaign. He managed Sen. John Kerry's relationships with FL donors in '04 and was key point of contact for Western donors at the DNC. We're told that four campaigns and two candidates called Mitchell directly.


• Other fundraisers: key bundlers signed up by Bayh include Greg Wendt, Mark Chandler, Eric Mindich, Jeff Smulyan, Mark Gilbert, Adam Aron, Danny Holtz and Danny Ponce. All are big fish, capable of bringing in six figure sums through their rolodexes.


• Chris Hayler and Sean Downey -- seved as Bayh's political directors for the pre-presidential months. Hayler is a former IA Dem staffer; Downey was Sen. Joe Leberman's dep. pol. dir in '04.


• Camp Bayh staff -- the 25 in IA, 15 in NH, 2 in NV and 1 in SC. Well trained and many have deep relationships with local elected officials. In IA, the Camp Bayh-trained political team helped secure the state leg. for Dems, according to Republicans.
  

In an effort to have all their political bases covered for 2008, Bush strategist Jack Oliver will become the next co-chair of the ONE campaign, joining Yahoo! COO Dan Rosenweig. The two will join ONE CEO and former Reid Chief of Staff Susan McCue who signed onto the anti-poverty campaign last month.

"Jack and Dan are two of the country’s best political and tactical minds," McCue said in a statement. "I look forward to joining forces with them in our grassroots campaign to bring the fight against global AIDS and extreme poverty to the forefront of today’s political arena and 2008 Presidential cycle. We are building a team unlike any other and together we plan to create an unstoppable force, powered by people, for real change."

Oliver's statement: "ONE is building a successful campaign by doing it differently: bringing together people of different political parties and faiths, business and politics, grassroots and Internet organizing to help America do even more to save lives in the world's poorest countries."

The Gates Foundation's Joe Cerrell, a former assistant press secretary to Al Gore, was also elected to the board.[SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

In the last 7 WH races, at least one of the major parties has nominated someone who was making at least their 2nd run.

For now, at least 3 candidates are embarking on 2nd runs in '08: McCain, Edwards and Biden (with Gore a possible 4th). Not surprisingly, all three are trying new tacks for their second bids. McCain has evolved from insurgent to establishment; Edwards is going from fresh face to crusader; and Biden is vying for the seasoned veteran mantle (we're not even going to try to classify Biden's '88 theme).

McCain's shift is the most historically viable. Republicans have nominated the second place insurgent three times since '80.

The most risky change is the Edwards strategy. Not since McGovern have the Dems actually nominated the crusader. Then again, maybe Edwards had no choice. The establishment is with Clinton; the fresh-face crowd is with Obama and Edwards can't pull off senior statesman. Edwards better hope Gore doesn't block the crusade path.

Rep. Tom Allen (D-01) '04 manager Michael Cuzzi confirmed they have brought on Heather Quinn as finance dir. should Allen decide to run for SEN. Last cycle, Quinn managed Rep. Mike Michaud (D-02)'s campaign. Some ME Dem sources say this is Allen's attempt to break into ME-02. Cuzzi said he will also play a significant role in Allen's pending campaign. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks!

FOR THE 110TH TIME...
If you could offer a few words of advice to incoming-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, what would they be? In his article, Goodbye, 109th (And Good Riddance)", AEI's Norm Ornstein suggests a few appointments Pelosi might consider to keep her allies -- left and right. Among them -- a "council of elders" led by one GOPer in particular (hint: he's from CO) and a special group of 10 or so House GOPers...

MUSICAL CHAIRS
AEI's John Fortier wonders how strong Dems will become on homeland security in the 110th Congress. Is it enough, he asks, that Pelosi's friend Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) will chair the defense appropriations subcommittee? Or, should Dems instead focus on gaining power in other cmtes where pols, such as Pelosi, may lack friends? Dems, he suggests, have a few promises to keep.

HOW THE GRINCH STOLE LOBBYISTS
If Congress is the Grinch, suggests Heritage's Ronald Ult and Brian Riedl, then what will happen to K Street? Although pols like Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Rep. David Obey (D-WI) might have a few ideas, unless they are implemented, Riedl and Ult ask what would happen in the case of an emergency?

TOO TERRORIFIED TO RUN?
Have some politicians become too focused on nat'l security? Has the fear of threats shifted the political landscape to an unhealthy degree? At CATO, Woody Hayes Nat'l Security chair John Mueller sat down with ex-VA Gov. James S. Gilmore to examine a few theories.

*Talk at the Center For American Progress and the Brookings Institution was all about policy... politics makes a comeback on Monday.
[SARAH LOVENHEIM]

Have an idea for next week's Tank Talk?
Send your suggestions to Sarah, at slovenheim@nationaljournal.com.

We're not trying to start anything but with the decision by Evan Bayh to not run, there was a lot of commentary on the Sunday shows wondering if Mark Warner was having second thoughts.

And by sheer coincidence this week, one of our NH spies informed us they received a holiday card in the mail from... Mark Warner.

Could Warner get coaxed back into the race next summer once the euphoria of Obama and Hillary has worn off? He has the personal resources... Again, not trying to start anything but simply making an observation.

NH Dem Chair Kathy Sullivan announced this weekend she will not seek re-election in March. She's been the chair of the party since '99 and therefore is, perhaps, the only state chair many current active WH '08 Dems have known. Sullivan will easily go down as one of the most successful state party chairs in NH Dem history. The results speak for themselves. The only office the NH Dems have not been able to win on Sullivan's watch was a U.S. Senate seat and that could change in '08 if GOP Sen. John Sununu receives the strong challenge many analysts expect.

According to multiple reports, NH Dem Vice Chair Ray Buckley, a veteran activist in the party, plans to seek the top spot.

As for Sullivan's future, very little was hinted at in reports about whether she'll run for office herself (could she run for Senate?) or whether she'll sign on with a WH '08 campaign. With Sullivan not presiding over the state party, there is now a new major "get" for WH Dem '08 candidates to fight over: Kathy Sullivan.

In New Hampshire this a.m., Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) will confront Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Iraq.

The White House is leaning towards adopting McCain's proposal to add tens of thousands of combat troops to U.S. forces in Baghdad in a final effort to secure the city.

Here's what Richardson says:

“The leading advocate for escalating the war is Senator John McCain. I have served with John in Congress and I respect him. But John McCain is wrong, dead wrong to think that we can solve Iraq’s political crisis through military escalation.”

“There are no quick or easy answers to the crisis in Iraq. Our choices are between bad options and worse ones. Some prefer military escalation. Some choose staying the course. These options are illusions. The only realistic choice we have is to stand down militarily and let the Iraqis stand up and face the political crisis which only they can resolve.”

“I’ve been to Iraq and Afghanistan. I worked in this region...we should harbor no illusions. This withdrawal will not be pretty. People will die. But fewer will die than if we stay. There are no guarantees that our departure will end the civil war, but it is sure to continue so long as we stay. The Iraqis might, or might not, resolve their political crisis. It is up to them. They distrust and fear one another, and this makes it very tough. But they share one goal – they don’t want to destroy their own country. To save it, they need to stop killing each other and start compromising. And we need to get out of the way.”

From Evan Bayh's statement:

The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath. And whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I'm just not the right David, the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue. This path - and these long odds - would have required me to be essentially absent from the Senate for the next year instead of working to help the people of my state and the nation.

"Too many Goliaths"? Sounds like Obama-mania has claimed another victim.

Indy Star has the definitive story.

It appears the CBS News story about Evan Bayh deciding against a WH '08 bid may be true. Fox News now has their own sources telling them Bayh won't make a bid. FWIW, we tried to get our Bayh sources to debunk the news and they wouldn't.

Bayh would have started a campaign with more than $10M in the bank and while no one was talking about Bayh as a first tier candidate just yet, there was an assumption he'd be a leader of the second tier and no modern primary campaign to date hasn't had a second tier candidate make the jump to top competitor. Bayh's most recent trip to NH coincided with Barack Obama's first visit to the state. One wonders if the sudden rise of Obama spooked Bayh. The coverage of the two trips was, well, incomparable. A few months ago in Iowa, Mark Warner shared the stage with Obama at the Harkin Steak Fry. It was seen by some as a real eye-opener for Warner, who made the decision not to run a few weeks later.

If Bayh does indeed pass up a WH campaign, it will be the second WH cycle in a row where Bayh has flirted but decided against a bid. Will there be a third time? [CHUCK TODD]

Update: A Dem close to Bayh confirms that the senator will put a statement out tomorrow confirming that he's decided against a WH bid.

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

When Evan Bayh announced he was forming an exploratory committee to run for President last week, he already had thousands of virtual supporters and potential volunteers behind him. That's because Bayh was able to develop his profile and name ID on Facebook.com since early last summer.

After Labor Day, Facebook set up public pages for every candidate up for re-election and any other politician who asked, including Bayh. And now that the election is over, all sitting members of Congress and Governors's pages will move forward (losing candidates will be given the option to open a regular account or be removed) and similar public pages for 2008 Presidential candidates will be added in 2007.

And as presidential announcements start rolling out, many of pages and the online networks that accompany them have continued to grow for WH '08 candidates.

"Facebook was really just part of our outreach strategy," said Bayh's online organizer Ryan Alexander. "Senator Bayh has always been a strong advocate of students."

It's a strategy that pulled in more than 6,000 supporters at last count because, in part, Bayh's approach includes pro-actively recruiting and maintaining relationships with his "friends," according to his e-campaign. Bayh's internet team wishes supporters a Happy Birthday, updates Bayh's status almost every day and puts in more personal nuggetts on his profile than those that appear on his Senate Web site.

"You can't just throw up a facebook (page) that is a rehash of your Senate Web site. You have to understand that people on this Web site are looking for personal information," Alexander said. "We really wanted to approach this how a regular facebook user approaches this."

Oh, and it also helped that Bayh promoted his facebook page at the National College Democrats of America conference last July. In the 48 hours following, Bayh received 1200 friend requests.

But how does a candidate turn his or her "friends" into "volunteers" or "activists"?

Jacob Colker used facebook to recruit a couple hundred volunteers. As Peter Franchot for Maryland Comptroller statewide field director, Colker said it's a matter of using the microtargeting that Facebook sets up.

The downside, according to Colker, is that it's tedious work for one lucky campaign staffer.

"You need a computer-savvy, almost nerdy-quiet person to sit there on the Web sites and try to talk to as many people as possible," said Colker.

After the jump, check out out On The Download's Facebook Guide to all the Democratic candidates. A separate guide to Republican candidates' facebook efforts will run next week. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ] and [TINA SALVATO].

To what extent is ex-Maj. Leader Tom Delay's (R-TX) downfall still hitting home? Hotline senior editor John Mercurio considers a few questions GOPers might ask. Among them, "Could President Bush's state go blue?"

It pays to have a home-state paper in your corner. Just ask Tom Vilsack. Today, we take a look at early ink in the WH '08 race.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Top donors and prominent supporters of Gov. Mitt Romney have been told to expect a formal announcement of his presidential candidacy on the 8th of January. They've also been warned that the date could change. (Hotline sources).

This morning, Romney's press team e-mailed reporters a Q and A featuring Romney and his National Review admirer, KLo. Romney's not comfortable with the ISG report, he seems to want constructive engagement with China, and he no longer supports ENDA -- the employment non-discrimination act for gays.

Several top Romney supporters implored his campaign to respond more fully to the Boston Globe/Bay Windows blogswarm. But Romney was in Asia when the news broke, and top members of his team were busy interviewing staff and slogging through hours-long planning meetings.

One early sign that Romney's communication team will help contain stories like these: Matt Drudge didn't touch it. . Drudge is friendly with Romney's communications director, Matt Rhoades, the former research director of the RNC. Draw conclusions on your own.

Sen. John McCain's ExploreAmerica committee announced part of its nat'l finance team:

Also, banking exec James Huffines will be TX state chair. Huffines is currently the chair of the University of Texas Board of Regents and is a longtime Republican donor.

Finally, Kathleen Shanahan, a former chief of staff for Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and VP Cheney, will join McCain's nat'l strategy team. Shanahan is currently the CEO of WRS Infrastructure and Environment in Tampa. That brings to two the number of top Jeb Bush associates who've joined McCain. The other is Phillip Handy.

Also: McCain's got the support of Michigan attorney General Mike Cox. The long-rumored endorsement means that both statewide elected Republicans in Michigan are for McCain; Terri Lynn Land, the Sec/State, is said to be on board. Cox will serve as chair of the "Law Enforcement for McCain" and also as his Michigan state chair.

The New York Daily News's Ben Smith updates the Lou Susman saga. Mr. Susman, John Kerry's nat'l finance chair in '04, will raise money Barack Obama if Obama runs.

After 40 years and 3K columns, The State's Lee Bandy is retiring (The State). We will miss him. The "It" political writer in the state is now offiically Dan Hoover of the Greenville News. [MARC AMBINDER]

Hillary Clinton’s hiring of “faith guru” Burns Strider as an adviser to her presumptive presidential campaign, reported two days ago in the Hotline, draws some rare attention to Clinton’s religiosity, as yet unexamined in the same way that ’08 heavyweights like Mitt Romney and, through his high-profile meeting with Pastor Rick Warren, Barack Obama have been.

In Clinton’s case, there’s plenty to examine: religion seems to be the only part of her life that hasn’t undergone rigorous scrutiny.

Though Strider, as a onetime staff member for Nancy Pelosi, is squarely in the liberal camp, Clinton is part of not one, but two, prayers groups with distinctly conservative bents: an exclusive Senate prayer group that meets on Wednesday mornings, and a women’s prayer group that she’s been a part of since her early White House days. The women’s group is run by Holly Leachman, a layperson at the McLean Bible Church in Virginia, itself magnet for prominent conservatives, including former independent counsel Kenneth Starr, Republican senators John Thune and James Inhofe, as well as several Bush staffers and their families.

Leach's prayer group includes many prominent Republican wives, among them Susan Baker, wife of Iraq Study Group co-chairman James Baker, who along with Leachman ministered to Hillary Clinton in the wake of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. (Leachman, mentioned briefly in Clinton’s memoir, Living History, is the wife of Washington Redskins chaplain Jerry Leachman).

Both prayer groups are affiliated with The Fellowship, a reclusive and often controversial evangelical organization with a decades-long history of ministering to powerful people in government including Clinton, who herself has spoken at The Cedars, a mansion that The Fellowship maintains in Arlington.

Because it insists on utmost secrecy, The Fellowship has cultivated something of the air of one those sinister organizations you come across in John Grisham novels and, though it runs the annual National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, D.C., is the type of outfit that would make many liberals blanch. All of which is to suggest that candidates’ religion will an ongoing topic of fascination for political reporters, and it won’t just be limited to Romney. [JOSHUA GREEN ]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Obamarama

JohnCombest.com -- Bond Secures Key Post On Intelligence Committee

NhNewslinks.com -- Shea-Porter To Education Committee, Hodes To government Reform

Quorum Report -- Runoff May Hint At 2008 Landscape

WisPolitics.com --

One reason why Republicans were particularly depressed about losing the Senate this cycle was the demoralizing realization that the party may not have another realistic shot at getting the majority back until 2012.

It's tough to rank the next round of races this early, because it's inevitable that they will be shaken up as incumbents choose whether or not to seek re-election.

In fact, Democrats weren't supposed to pick up any seats in 2006, because the GOP appeared to have the better opportunities. After all, despite holding just 45 seats (counting Vermont independent Jim Jeffords'), Democrats had to defend 18. Furthermore, four of the five Democrats who knocked off GOP incumbents in 2000 were facing their first re-election contests this year.

It's tough to rank the next round of races this early, because it's inevitable that they will be shaken up as incumbents choose whether or not to seek re-election. So for now, with the help of Hotline state editor Quinn McCord, I'm breaking the list into four groups: a current top 10 based on vulnerability; a retirement "watch list"; the recruitment-dependent contests; and the likely "fuhgeddaboudits." [CHUCK TODD]

Continue reading ON THE TRAIL.

Admiral John Eisold, Attending Physician of the United States Capitol said, “Subsequent to his admission to George Washington University Hospital yesterday, Senator Tim Johnson was found to have had an intracerebral bleed caused by a congenital arteriovenous malformation. He underwent successful surgery to evacuate the blood and stabilize the malformation. The Senator is recovering without complication in the critical care unit at George Washington University Hospital. It is premature to determine whether further surgery will be required or to assess any long term prognosis.”

Barbara Johnson, wife of Senator Johnson, said, “The Johnson family is encouraged and optimistic. They are grateful for the prayers and good wishes of friends, supporters and South Dakotans.

“They are especially grateful for the work of the doctors and all medical personnel and GWU hospital.”

CNN reports that Sen. Tim Johnson has been dignosed with a congenital arteriovenous malformation. (AVM).

CNN's Sanjay Gupta: "We're talking about a long road, here." Recovery time may take weeks or months or longer.

The Johnson family is said to be "encouraged and optimistic."

The location of the malformation -- near Broca's area, which helps to control speech, suggests that he will need significant therapy to recover his full speech functions.

If the capillary bed is thought of as a sponge, then an AVM is the rough equivalent of jamming a tangle of flexible soda straws from artery to vein through that sponge. On arteriorgram films AVM formation often resemble a tangle of spaghetti noodles. This tangle of blood vessels forms a relatively direct connection between high pressure arteries and low pressure veins.

Sen. Tim Johnson underwent overnight "emergency surgery." George Washington University Hospital was "preparing to announce that his condition was critical (AP).

Lots of talk last night about Sen. Tim Johnson's (D-SD) condition and the possible effect on the Dems control of the Senate:

NBC's Reid: "A spokesperson from his office this evening came out and said, no, it was not a stroke, but it was some other undiagnosed illness. So some confusion now as to exactly what it is, but certainly, it was something of great concern."

More: "Any time a Democratic senator from a Republican state, a state with a Republican governor, gets a cold, they worry up there. So this is a potentially serious situation. But again, we have no reason to believe that it is that serious. But obviously, we're waiting for the tests to come back to see exactly what happened to Tim Johnson today."

MSNBC's Scarborough: "Majority leader-to-be Harry Reid has been at the hospital for most of the day, right?"

Reid: "That's right. He's been there quite a bit. He's supposed to go back tonight" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/13).

MSNBC's Shuster: "If there is a vacancy, if somebody were to die, then, of course, the governor, the Republican, in this case, would appoint a replacement. But if a senator or a congressman, for that matter, is merely incapacitated, there is nothing in federal state law that essentially enables the governor at that point to step in. ... Incapacitation is not a reason for somebody to be replaced. In fact, the Senate historian says tonight that incapacitation, in other words, somebody's health might be severe, but as long as they're not dead, there's nothing that either state law or federal law can do" ("Countdown," 12/13).

CNN's Bash: "Talking to both Democrats and Republicans, we should make clear tonight ... that they're being very careful to say, nobody is meeting. Nobody is planning any of this right now. But it's the cold political reality, that if Senator Johnson could no longer be able to serve, that would have a huge political impact, big ramifications, here in Washington" ("AC 360," 12/13).

READY TO RUMBLE

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) was on "Hardball" to talk about his WH run:

Kucinich: "I'm on a quest for integrity."

More: "My candidacy is about the end of fear and the beginning of hope. We have to challenge our fellow Democrats -- or my fellow Democrats to understand what the people said in November. If the Democrats had, going into the November election, had told people, look, we're going to vote to continue to fund the war, I doubt very seriously we would have gained control of the House and the Senate. So we're at an important moment here and a turning point in the war. We need to call the troops home. And we also need to say, no more money for the war, Mr. President" (MSNBC, 12/13). [EMILY GOODIN]

From HPN's TX affil, Quorum Report, columnist Ed Sills writes, "The ironies in Democratic challenger Ciro Rodriguez’s special election runoff victory over" Henry Bonilla (R) "are plentiful enough. Having been drawn out of Congress by Republican mid-decade redistricting that turned his Democratic base into quicksand, Rodriguez trounced Bonilla with 54 percent of the vote in a district the U.S. Supreme Court ordered up to give a Hispanic Democrat an even-money chance. ... Having survived a near-political-death experience in which he announced he was withdrawing from the first-round field in the special election, Rodriguez accepted a total campaign makeover that pumped new life into a message that resonated with working people. Having lost in two consecutive" TX 28 Dem primaries to Henry Cuellar "because he could make no inroads into Cuellar’s powerful Webb County base, Rodriguez won election in CD 23 by making inroads into Bonilla’s powerful West Texas base and by winning border counties he had never campaigned in." The rest of the Sills column can be found on the Quorum Report.

Q. How can Rudy Giuliani's team demonstrate to the media that they are serious about a presidential race?

A. DuHaime.

Michael DuHaime is the RNC's political director, vice Northeastern regional political director for Bush-Cheney '04, vice successful consultant in New Jersey politics. A protege of Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager, and of Ken Mehlman.

His is unknown outside Washington and Republican circles; you can't Google his picture. Inside the Beltway, he is a rising star and a political natural.

Per the New York Times, he'll be Giuliani's campaign manager should the former New York City mayor decide to run.

For months, there has been – at least in Republican political circles – considerable skepticism over Rudy Giuliani’s interest in running for president in 2008, for two reasons: The first is that his views, well known from his two terms as mayor of New York, may be far too liberal to win the Republican presidential nomination. The second – and more striking – is that Mr. Giuliani has long been renowned for having a very close (some might say insular) circle of advisers, all of them from New York, and all tied to him through his career as a mayor, in the United States attorney’s office, and as a lawyer.

That perception is about to get knocked on its head.

It's the Get Of The Week.

Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) has suffered a stroke, according to his office.

Senator Tim Johnson was taken to George Washington University Hospital this afternoon suffering from a possible stroke. As this stage, he is undergoing a comprehensive evaluation by the stroke team. Further details will be forthcoming when more is known.

If Sen. Johnson decides he is too ill to continue as Senator, Gov. Mike Rounds (R) would have ten days from the day of Johnson's resignation to appoint a replacement.

Because Johnson's in cycle, his replacement would stay on through the '08 elections.

Update: From CongressDaily: "Johnson became disoriented during a call with reporters at midday, but appeared to recover and walked back to his office before the Capitol physician was called. A Johnson spokeswoman also told reporters that "it was caught very early."

Are KY Dems having trouble turning the Bluegrass State blue?

-- One month after a nat'l Dem wave helped them oust Rep. Anne Northup (and 48 days before the filing deadline), state Dems, once confident they could beat Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) in a '07 walk, are struggling. Steve Beshear and Dan Mongiardo could run, but they're not scaring away a crowded field of second-tier Dems.

-- One of their biggest problems: KY's rule that GOV candidates choose running mates before they declare. That's where Ben Chandler, waiting as long as he did to bow out, hurt his party most. Before that, some B-List Dems would've gladly run for LG. Now, they see no one as unbeatable. With Fletcher so vulnerable and a crowded Dem field, 1/3 of the primary vote (plus runoff) could be the key to becoming the next gov.

-- Of course, KY GOPers aren't in great shape either. Northup, her party's best shot, says she's unlikely to run. Fletcher faces a self-funding primary challenge, who could ultimately weaken both. When's the last time any state had real primaries on both sides, with an incumbent on the ticket?

No, not that face time. Today, Chuck and Hotline editor Emily Goodin take a look at which candidates are getting the most television screen time. Ah, sweet, sweet free media.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Filing day *** Updated x2 ***

JohnCombest.com -- CDT Politics Blog: Blunt Keeps Mum On Mitt

NhNewslinks.com -- For NH's Political Operatives, It's Resume Season

Quorum Report -- Runoff May Hint At 2008 Landscape

Sayfie's Review -- Governing: Bush/December 2006

WisPolitics.com -- U.S. Rep.-Elect Kagen: Assigned To Transportation And Infrastructure Committee

The FEC unanimously decided to settle with three 527's "accused of violating" federal campaign finance laws during the '04 presidential election. Among them: The League of Conservation Voters, MoveOn.org Voter Fund and Swiftboat Veterans and POWs for Truth.

In sum, they must pay a combined amount of $630K.

The announcement settles charges the 527's "failed to register and file disclosure reports as federal political" cmtes, and "accepted contributions in violation of federal limits and source prohibitions." FEC Commission Chair Michael Toner said the Commisssion's findings "send a strong message" that the FEC handles such cases with "serious legal consequences." Vice chair Robert Lenhard said the "bipartisan and unanimous nature" of the decision shows the FEC "is willing to regulate election activity more aggtressively than it has in the past."

No wonder so many groups find it so easy to flout the law: it takes the FEC a year and a half to get around to making them pay for it. (We're not suggesting that the above groups wilfully violated the law, just that the enforcement delay is an incentive for others to break it.)

Sen. Hillary Clinton has dinner with tonight with several of her husband’s top political advisers – James Carville, Paul Begala, Joel Johnson and Joe Lockhart.

All four have substantial presidential campaign experience, and none will play a formal role in the campaign.

The subject of the dinner could not be determined, but the guest list offers a clue, as does history: Clinton convened a similar dinner shortly before she announced her New York Senate candidacy in 2000.

The “White Boys” – as this group of Bill Clinton top aides informally bills itself, tongue in cheek – are unique assets for Clinton. That they won’t be part of the formal hierarchy of the campaign, which will be managed by Patti Solis Doyle, poses some rare challenges.

Between the four of them, they’re friends with just about every important Democratic strategist and office-holder in the nation. They’re personal friends with Bill Clinton. And they have access to – and regularly speak with – charter members of the national political media.

As informal advisers, they’ll be in a position to provide Clinton with information and perspective from outside the campaign structure. But they’ll also be free to talk about the campaign to others.

One Clinton insider (we hate to use the term, but this person really is an insider) said that Clinton wants all four to know that she’s open to their advice. She may also use the occasion to subtly caution her friends from public backbiting or using their status as advisers to speak on background to reporters.

Carville was the senior consultant on Clinton’s 1992 campaign; he was a close adviser through the Clinton presidency. He leveraged his celebrity into a Hollywood career, a CNN gig, numerous teaching engagements, popular books, overseas consulting for international presidential candidates, and even a restaurant. Democrats sought his advice and feared the sting of his rebukes.

In the late summer of 2004, he pressured John Kerry to shake up his campaign. Within weeks, Johnson and Lockhart, by then wildly successful lobbyists and consultants, were asked to retool Kerry’s public image. Democrats debate today whether their intervention worked.

Other members of the “White Boys” include Doug Sosnik, a former White House political director who is now a top adviser to Sen. Chris Dodd’s presidential campaign, Steve Richetti, another top political aide in the Clinton White House, and Harold Ickes, a former deputy white house chief of staff who is close to Hillary Clinton and who is currently helping her recruit political staff for her campaign. Rep. Rahm Emanuel was considered a White Boy during his White House service.

Among Hillary Clinton’s staff, the term “White Boys” is used to refer to two distinct groups: her husband’s staff, led by chief of staff Doug Band, and the larger group of her husband’s outside advisers and friends. Terry McAuliffe, Clinton’s chief fundraiser and the former DNC chairman, transcends both Hillary and Bill Clinton universes. [MARC AMBINDER]

Rep. Henry Bonilla’s (R-TX 23) loss last night confirms one of the Bush administration’s greatest fears: that a hard-line position on illegal immigration could cause Republicans long-term damage among the growing Latino vote.

Bonilla was a strong supporter of the tough-on-immigration measures sponsored by the Republicans. He voted for the construction of the 700-mile border fence, and supported Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner’s bill penalizing workers who hire illegal immigrants.

Based on the election results, it appears Latino voters – even among his previous supporters – turned on him and supported ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D). In Maverick County (95% Hispanic), Bonilla won a miniscule 14% of the vote. By contrast, Bonilla carried the county in his comfortable 2004 win, and President Bush even performed respectably here in 2004 when he won 40%.

Val Verde County (76% Hispanic) has traditionally been a solidly pro-Bush, pro-Bonilla county. Bush carried it with 59% of the vote in 2004. But Bonilla barely carried it, only winning 51% there against Rodriguez.

By contrast, the majority-white counties in the district remained strongly pro-Bonilla. Medina County (45% Hispanic) overwhelmingly voted for Bonilla, giving him 68% of the vote. That’s not much of a dropoff from Bush’s 70% performance there in 2004.

On the day of the election Bonilla’s spokesman Phil Ricks expressed confidence that Hispanics were supportive of Bonilla’s stance on border security. “If you’re a legal citizen, you’re not in favor of illegal immigration. If you go through the process legally, illegal immigration insults you,” he said.

Hispanic voters didn’t see things the same way. And if Bonilla – the only Mexican-American Republican in Congress – takes this much of a hit among Latinos, Republicans have much to be concerned about looking ahead to 2008. [JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

Yesterday, we reported the endorsement of Sen. John McCain by a handful of prominent College Republicans in Massachusetts, home of Gov. Mitt Romney.

Now there's a backlash. One Mass. Alliance of College Republican board member wants chair Michael Miltenberger to resign, citing a litany of alleged misdeeds. The McCain endorsement, in the view of these board members, was the final straw.

A board member e-mailed hundreds of Mass. Republicans a broadside against Miltenberger , but at the end, refused to identify him or herself "due to fear of retribution," the letter said.

A spokesperson for Romney's PAC said they have nothing to do with the letter.

Here's the letter:

I write to you today about a very important situation of concern relating to Massachuetts College Republicans. As a member of its Executive Board, I learned with profound dissapointment today that Massachusetts Alliance of College Republicans (MACR) State Chairman Michael Miltenberger, a Florida native, unilaterally decided that the MACR should prematurely endorse the presidential aspirations of U.S. Senator John McCain, a decision that was covered in today's edition of "The Hotline," a major national political news website (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com).

Endorsing one presumptive GOP presidential candidate over another when the race for our Party's presidential nomination is still more than eighteen months in the future is premature at best. However, the most dissapointing part of this endorsement is its snide tone and the perception it disingenuously offers. While he has not yet officially announced his intentions, many expect our Governor, Mitt Romney, to announce soon that he will seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Governor Romney has faced unfair and unwarranted criticism in recent weeks over the authenticity of his conservative beliefs. So you can imagine why national news outlets picked up on Governor Romney's homestate College Republican federation endorsing a likely presidential nomination opponent, Senator McCain, and noting his "authenticity" and "straight talk" - in a subtle but clear jab at the Governor.

Pres. Bush postponed his speech to the nation on Iraq dominated TV coverage last night.

CNN's Dobbs: "The White House today said President Bush will delay the announcement of any changes in his Iraq strategy until the new year. The White House announcement had been expected before Christmas. A top White House official insists the delay is not a sign of trouble, but simply a sign of the president's determination" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/12).

FNC's Baier: "Administration officials say the president also wants to wait until his new Defense Secretary, Robert Gates, who will be sworn in Monday, has a chance to travel to Iraq, to, quote, kick the tires with commanders on the ground" ("Special Report," 12/12).

CNN's Henry: "People familiar with the deliberations are now telling CNN that the president is actively considering sending more troops to Iraq, a controversial move that White House aides just will not confirm or deny" ("AC 360," 12/12).

Newsweek's Alter: "My feeling about these consultations he's having with a lot of Democrats and military experts is, better late than never. But it sure is late. ... They should have been reassessing this policy and making these adjustments, creating a new policy, really, at least three years ago" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 12/12).

CNN's Bash: "If the president wants patience from Democratic leaders, it's pretty clear he's not going to get it. The incoming Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, blasted the president for delaying his announcement of this new Iraq policy, even appeared to chide him on this so-called listening tour that he's on" ("Situation Room," 12/12).

"Hannity & Colmes" also ran the second part of its interview with Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld.

Rumsfeld, on the current situation: "The military is doing a superb job. They're doing everything that military people can do. The problems here are political, and they're going to require diplomacy. They're going to require progress on that front for the military to succeed. So we're in that unusual circumstance where there's no way our military can lose a single battle, here or around the world; there's also no way the military can win alone" (FNC, 12/12).

MAKING THE ROUNDS

Several WH '08ers also made TV appearances.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) and his wife, Elizabeth, played "Hardball."

Edwards, on Bush: "I do not trust him. ... I think that skepticism and cynicism is well-deserved. I think the president has shown a complete inability to change, a complete incompetence in the management of the war in Iraq. ... And now he tells us it's going to be January before he takes any different course? It's just not acceptable. It's not leadership. That's not what America needs."

On the advantages of having already run for pres.: "Running before makes you focus on something different. Instead of focusing on how crowds respond to you and what everybody seems to love of you. That's not the test for being president. The test for being president is are you the best person to occupy the Oval Office and be the leader of the free world? Because literally the future of the world is at stake here. This is not about popularity and excitement."

Asked if Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is receiving too much hype: "No, I think it's -- listen, he's an exciting, charismatic guy and I think he would add something to the race if he decided to run for president. And then the real test, as those of us who've been through enough" (MSNBC, 12/12).

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) was in the "Situation Room."

Kucinich, on Iraq: "My position and my run-for the presidency is about consistency. It's about a quest for integrity. It's about saying the money is there to bring the troops home, so let's bring them home. What are we waiting for?"

CNN's Blitzer: "So you're saying this is not simply an ego trip for Dennis Kucinich?"

Kucinich: "Was it an ego trip to stand up in 2002 and say there was no basis for this war, when no other person was willing to do that? ... I chose a career in public life ... not just to do well, but to do good. And I chose a career where I can manifest this integrity and to stand up and speak on behalf of the people. ... We have to bring those troops home. We have to rededicate the purpose of our nation to something other than war.
And my candidacy is about doing just that" (CNN, 12/12).

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) also stopped by the "Situation Room."

Brownback, on Bush waiting to make an announcement in 1/07: "This is a big course correction, if you want to call it that, a course adjustment that he's making, and I think he needs to take every bit of time that he needs to have."

Asked if he would support ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani as the '08 GOP nominee: "Oh, I think so. I believe in a big tent party. I believe in a party that binds people together even though we don't agree on all of the topics, and so I think I could do that. But I think I'm going to be the nominee and not Rudy Giuliani" (CNN, 12/12). [KATHERINE LEHR]

It's official... AP has called TX 23. Ex-Dem Rep. Ciro Rodriguez is coming back to Congress. With 94% of precincts reporting, Rodriguez leads GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla 55-45%. The official makeup of the House is now 233D, 202R.

Frankly, not only is Rodriguez's victory a mild surprise (Bonilla fell just 2 points short of avoiding the runoff in November), the size is a shock. National Journal's Congressional guru Rich Cohen emails the following: a "very well-connected Democratic source told me today that the DCCC spent $1.5 million on the contest largely because they knew that Rodriguez, with his limited fundraising skills, could not win this on his own. So, this is as much (if not more) a victory for Rahm, as it is for Ciro."

Cohen also makes one other point. This is now the second seat in TX this cycle that has switched hands from the GOP to the Dems as a result of Tom DeLay's re-redistricting efforts. The other seat, of course, was DeLay's. So the net result for the GOP based on DeLay's re-redistricting was all of 2 seats. Was that really worth all the hassle and the subpoenas and courtroom dramas? Many a Republican is probably wondering that same thing tonight, in particular, soon-to-be-ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla.

Update: National Journal's Charles Mahtesian, who is the editor of the Almanac of American Politics, observes: "Take a look at these remarkable numbers in Maverick County. Bonilla won it with 59% in 2004, even as Kerry was carrying the county; Bonilla lost it 86-14% tonight. Maverick County is a border county and home to Eagle Pass, where the border fence issue was huge. Bonilla's vote in favor of a fence made an enormous difference here.

Talk about a mayor who knows his town. In a September newspaper story about the fence issue, here's a quote by Eagle Pass Mayor Chad Foster, 'It's kind of hard to support someone who wants to build a fence,' said Foster, who's also president of the Texas Border Coalition, a group of city and county officials. 'I'd say 95 percent of Maverick County agrees with me.' Turns out the guy was off by 9 points."

One of the more fascinating ideas about what the WH should do re: Iraq comes from the always-thinking-about-retiring GOP consultant Mike Murphy. In a L.A. Times op-ed today, Murphy advises Pres. Bush to expand his war cabinet to include Dems, specifically the incoming Senate/House cmte heads of Armed Services and Intelligence. Murphy contends the country (and Bush) desperately needs to find some bipartisan solution on Iraq.

But what makes this op-ed facinating is not what Murphy writes but what he doesn't write. Murphy is a one-time political aide to both John McCain and Mitt Romney, two of the three frontrunners for the WH '08 GOP nod. And his op-ed seems to scream, "PRES. BUSH, STOP IRAQ FROM BEING A 'REPUBLICAN WAR'!" The op-ed doesn't specifically say this, but the message is implied. There are many GOP strategists who worry that if Iraq is still the major issue in '08 and Iraq is still viewed as Bush's war (translation: the GOP's war), it won't matter who either party nominates for president, the GOP will be in an unwinnable situation. The fact is, no matter how unpopular Bush is right now, the GOP desperately needs him to pivot on Iraq and find a way out or the entire party will pay one more time in '08. [CHUCK TODD]

TX 23: Punctuation Matters

Today's runoff between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) either "will be an exclamation point" to the Dem takeover over Congress or a "question mark," suggesting a potential GOP comback down the road. "Seeing a chance to personally strengthen" the new Dem majority, incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) "got personally involved," sending Rodriguez $5K from a PAC she controls. Yet her contribution doesn't amount to $315.9K Bonilla received "over the past two weeks," to Rodriguez's $168.7K.

Bonilla predicts "it'll be close" in Bexar Co. but believes his margins in TX 23's outlying counties will "put us over the top."

Regardless of the outcome, Gov. Jeb's son George P. Bush thanked Bonilla for his efforts, saying he "has been there for the Bush family through and through, and he's been there for the Republican Party." Meanwhile, Rodriguez camp "blasted" Bush's visit, saying it showed Bonilla would "support" Bush "without question" (San Antonio Express-News).

FL 13: Media Turning On Jennings?

In the contest between banker Christine Jennings (D) and auto dealer Vern Buchanan (R), St. Petersburg Times editorializes, "the race's troubling aspects have morphed into absurdity. It is time to bring finality. Christine Jennings (D) should concede defeat and the Democratic Party should butt out."

Jennings has raised "some legitimate questions about the voting process" in FL, but "no evidence of fraud or equipment malfunction has been found."

It's time for Jennings "to bow out," and for Dems "to stop fanning fears about electronic voting machines without much more than suspicions" (St. Petersburg Times).

Miami Herald's Reinhard writes, "a happy ending is unlikely for Jennings" since lawsuits seeking to overturn elections "tend to be hard sells in court." Moreover, the "fledging" Dem "leadership will find itself in an awful bind" if Jennings "seeks a political remedy" and asks Congress "to investigate and bar Buchanan from joining the House." Having already won the majority and trying to lay the groundwork for WH '08, Dems don't need another "Sore Loserman." (Miami Herald).

We know how bloggers are likely to approach the '08 WH race, but which candidates will be blogosphere favorites? Sorry, front-runners, you're not on the list.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Two major polling organizations -- USA Today/Gallup and CBS News -- came out with big polls dissecting public opinion on the war in Iraq in the wake of the Iraq Study Group report, and the results could be a sobering wake-up call for the Bush administration. We say "could be" because the public holds so much distrust and angst about the war in Iraq that it may simply be too late for the Bush admin to turn things around.

Some of the polls', well, low-lights:

A majority of Americans think neither side is winning the war (64% in Gallup's, 63% in the CBS poll), though a slightly greater percentage choose the Iraqi insurgency (17% and 18%, respectively) than the U.S. and its allies (16% and 15%).

A majority thinks the U.S. should keep a significant number of troops in Iraq for less than a year (55% in the Gallup survey), while in CBS's poll, 59% say the U.S. should either decrease troop levels or remove troops altogether.

The war, say majorities, was a mistake. That's nothing new - a majority has agreed that the war was a mistake in most Gallup polls since early May 2005, with few exceptions. 53% continue to agree, while 62% called sending troops to Iraq a mistake in the CBS poll.

It's not getting any easier, either. Just 8% say the situation in Iraq is getting better, while 52% say it's getting worse, according to CBS. The same poll shows 71% believe U.S. efforts in the country are going somewhat or very badly
Is it worth it? The big number today is 64, the percent of Americans who say the costs of succeeding in Iraq outweigh the benefits to the U.S. Just 33% of the Gallup sample feel the opposite way. 53% in the CBS poll say the U.S. is not likely to succeed. In a smaller Washington Post/ABC News poll, only 36% say the war was worth it, as 61% say it wasn't.

And as President Bush talks about his administration's strategy for the war, it's not clear he's helping his own case. The WaPo/ABC poll shows just 28% approving of his handling of the situation in Iraq, an all-time low. That's actually 7 points better than the CBS sample. Also according to CBS, Americans trust Congressional Democrats nearly 2-1 (53%-27%) over Bush in making the right decisions about Iraq. Finally, CBS shows just 28% of Americans have confidence in Bush's ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, while 70% are uneasy.

It doesn't get any better in Gallup. 46% say they trust Bush "a great deal" or "a fair amount" to recommend the right thing to do in Iraq, far below the aggregates for Congressional Democrats (58%), the Iraq Study Group (66%) and even Sen. John McCain (63%).

If the ISG report serves as a warning and a call for change, as Bush has signaled - news reports today suggest a new strategy in Iraq will be announced early next month - it is doubtful any action will be sufficient to reverse these dismal numbers.

As Americans perceive everything in Iraq as going so poorly, Pres. Bush's approval rating has actually sunk from last quarter (31% in the CBS poll, 36% in the Washington Post/ABC poll and 38% in the USA Today/Gallup poll), breaking a string of years in which, going into the holiday season, his numbers have risen. It remains to be seen if January's State of the Union -- typically a boost for presidential poll numbers -- will provide Bush an opportunity to come back. [REID WILSON]

Are you ready?

Burns Strider, a senior policy adviser to incoming House majority whip James Clyburn, has agreed to join Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, should the Senator decide to run. Burns has more than a decade of political and policy experience, and he has a Southern pedigree. The son of Sheriff , Burns was chief of staff to ex-Rep. Ronnie Shows, and worked with Clinton advisor Howard Wolfson at the DCCC. A native of Grenada, MS, Strider has headed up the House Democratic Caucus's outreach to faith groups. His exact place in the Clinton hierarchy is unknown, but he'll likely serve as a senior political and policy aide to Clinton. [MARC AMBINDER]

The December rush to recruit top-level staffers for presidential races continues apace.

But one Democrat with manifest Iowa experience will be headed to... Nevada. Jean Hessburg, the former exec. dir of the Iowa Democratic Party, has been recruited by Harry Reid to manage Nevada's caucus operation. Hessburg has many admirers (and some detractors) in the Democratic Party, but her ability to put together a caucus is unquestioned. Hessburg had been informally chatting with Democrats close to Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton about running their respective Iowa operations.

We've learned that Brad Anderson, most recently the communications director for IA GOV candidate Chet Culver's success campaign, has agreed to serve as communications director for Ex-Sen. John Edwards's presidential campaign in Iowa. Anderson's boss at the Culver campaign was Patrick Dillon, and Edwards '03-04 field staffer who will probably become a senior level official for Edwards in Raleigh... or else will run the state of Iowa on his behalf.

Also, Christina Reynolds, the well-regarded former research director for the DCCC, will serve as Edwards's research chief. Edwards will soon announce a new communications chief for his national operation.

Two prominent Democrats helped to staff Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) in New Hampshire this weekend. Both were last affiliated with Ex-Rep. Dick Gephardt's 2004 presidential bid. They are Matt Rodriguez, political director for Gephardt's campaign, and New Hampshire lawyer and strategist Jim Demers . They're "friends," of the campaign, an Obama aide said. The two join David Plouffe, a senior strategist for Gephardt's final campaign. Plouffe now consults for Obama.

Josh Earnest, a former DNC spokesman and comm. dir for Rep. Jim Davis's gubernatorial campaign in FL, has joined Gov. Tom Vilsack's presidential campaign as communications director. Earnest starts tomorrow.

Some Romney World items:

Dan Senor, reported by CNN to have joined Romney's communications team, won’t play an official role in the campaign. He's been informally advising Romney on foreign policy and helped to set up meetings with experts in the field, but he will not be paid by the campaign as a consultant. . An earlier post in this space erroneously said that Senor would be a paid consultant. Senior will continue to run his private equity firm in New York City; he's also a Fox News contributor.

And Chris Cillizza reports that Joe Wall, a floor assist to Rep. Roy Blunt, will join the campaign as an assistant policy director. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Holiday Blogger Bash

JohnCombest.com -- Human Events: Blunt On Conservatives' Revival

NhNewslinks.com -- Mahoney In For Rath

Quorum Report -- Runoff May Hint At 2008 Landscape

Sayfie's Review -- Sun-Sentinel: Presidential Campaign Begins

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Continues Push To Expand Health Coverage

There were two main topics of TV last night: Iraq and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL):

Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld was on "Hannity & Colmes":

On why he resigned: "I think that this time the outcome of the election, just to put it right up on the table, created a situation where I personally believe, and the president agrees, it is better for someone else to be leading this department with that new Congress. And it's better for the military; it's better for the department; and it's better for the administration. And I feel comfortable with that."

Asked if he's read the ISG report: "I've skimmed it" (FNC, 12/11).

Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), on Iraq: "What I say, I say in sorrow, not in anger. President Bush is my friend. And I know he agonizes day and night over this issue. But he has a very determined streak in him. And, yet, I have to believe he knows, with the Iraq Study Group, and what others are saying, that the time is now to rethink this and reposition the American war against terrorism" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/11).

NBC's Gregory: "Impatience, frankly, by the public within the public is not really the top concern of the president's right now. He has got a much more difficult set of difficulties which is the course of the war in Iraq and whether or not this strategy that he launched can be salvaged" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/11).

CNN's Roberts: "Between the meetings and the reports he's expecting from the State Department, Pentagon and National Security Council, President Bush should have plenty of political cover to ignore the rest of what the ISG had to say, as long as he comes up with a workable alternative" ("AC 360," 12/11).

Newsweek's Wolffe, on Bush: "He's making a big show, I'm listening to the commanders, I'm listening to the State Department folks. But that's what we're going to have for another week or so -- Bush as listener, not so much Bush the 'decider'" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/11).

OBAMA-MANIA

Washington Post's Balz, on the difference between Obama and Powell: "I think there was much more doubt that Colin Powell would actually take the step and run for president and that, if he did, he would have a very difficult time winning a Republican nomination. Obama doesn't have that" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/11).

CNN's J. King, on Obama's NH trip: "When you have 150 journalists from as far away as Australia tracking your every move, it's hard to engage in that one-on-one, hand-to-hand, face-to- face campaigning for which New Hampshire is famous" ("Situation Room," 12/11).

MSNBC.com's Curry, on Obama's NH visit: "There were others who were concerned that the media frenzy and the euphoria surrounding his visit, that it may change the nature of the New Hampshire primary. You know, the people up there, as you well know, they like to be courted. They like you to start out in the living room ... come to their coffee shop and answer some specific questions. And they found the news media frenzy a little bit bewildering and they couldn't quite figure it out" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/11).

Pat Buchanan: "He has got this big boomlet going, I do not know how he crawls back in from that limb. I think this guy has virtually put himself into this race. And I hope he is prepared for what is coming, because Hillary has been vetted to a T. There is nothing more we can learn about her. We don't know anything about this guy" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 12/11).

FNC's Cameron, on Obama's NH trip: "The main-event drew 2,000 more, an unprecedented crowd for any politician's first trip to New Hampshire. Now Granite State Democrats feel obliged to arrange a similar reception for Hillary" ("Special Report," 12/11).

FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "The rise of Obama has to be killing Hillary Clinton, who did not anticipate the challenge. I still believe the senator from New York will get the nomination because old guard Democrats don't really like the far left and feel comfortable with the Clinton style" ("O'Reilly Factor," 12/11). [EMILY GOODIN]

According to the Boston Globe:

Senator Edward M. Kennedy Monday dropped his public commitment to support Senator John F. Kerry in a 2008 presidential race, saying that he won't wait "indefinitely" for Kerry to declare his intentions while the Democratic primary field takes shape.

Kennedy said he doesn't currently plan to endorse another candidate and still might support Kerry if Kerry decides to run. But in an hourlong interview with the Globe's Washington bureau, Kennedy offered strong praise for two of Kerry's possible presidential rivals: senators Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, calling them "formidable figures" who are connecting with rank-and-file Democrats.

So will Kerry wait until April?

BTW: The longer Kerry waits, the more likely he is to write himself another check to start things off.

'08 features a lot more GOPers up than Dems up in hot Senate races. We preview the senators already getting started on their '08 campaigns.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Rep. Dennis Kucinich will announce a presidential bid 12/12 from Cleveland City Hall, "the site of his political birth - the biggest place of his embarrassment."

Yet as the second Dem to make an official '08 bid, Kucinich "is sure to grab some" media attention. Stay tuned...

(Cleveland Plain Dealer)

LA 02: Jefferson's Day

Rep. William Jefferson (D) defeated state Rep. Karen Carter (D) in the LA 02 runoff. Results with 100% of precincts reporting (LA Sec/State).

LA 02 Runoff
                 votes         %age
Jefferson        35,121         57%
Carter           26,985         43

Considering Jefferson's win, the "laggard pace" of the criminal probe "may have worked to his advantage. Jefferson "never missed a chance" during the campaign to "remind voters of the universal presumption of innocence." U-NO prof. Susan Howell: "He was able to convey to black voters that he was beleaguered, persecuted and unfairly treated by the Republican Department of Justice... He was able to discredit the FBI." What's more, the "widespread post-Katrina disgust with the federal power structure" may have helped him.

Jefferson managed to "mitigate the loss of his traditional base of black voters" with "newfound support among white voters." He scored a "decisive win" by "routing" Carter in Jefferson Parish, drawing 70 percent of the vote in the suburban precincts. That may have "attested less to his appeal" than to the power of Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee, whose "bitter attacks" on Carter appeared to have "been a factor" in "sharply suppressing turnout" that Carter needed, especially among white voters. About 120,000 of the CD's voters are registered in Jefferson Parish, but turnout was a "dismal 15 percent" -- half of what it was in the primary (New Orleans Times-Picayune).

Yet Jefferson Parish voters also may have had "selfish motives" behind their vote. If Jefferson is forced to resign, they could "get another crack at electing one of their own" -- state Sen. Derrick Shepherd (D), who ran third in the primary but won in Jefferson Parish. Shepherd backed Jefferson in the runoff, and "never denied" he would "make another run at the seat if it became open" (New Orleans Times-Picayune).

TX 23: They've Lost That Loving Feeling

Pres. Clinton swung through San Antonio Sunday "to wind up supporters" of Rodriguez. Clinton: "You couldn't have a clearer choice. You couldn't have a better candidate. And you've got just about 48 hours to bring this home." His 20-minute speech was "laced" with jabs at Bonilla. Clinton zeroed in on Bonilla's "votes against the minimum wage," which provoked a response from Bonilla spokesperson Phil Ricks. Ricks: "All of the small business owners... tell him if they had to pay a higher minimum wage, they would have to lay off workers in order to do that."

Meanwhile, Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumped for Bonilla 12/10 in Hondo, TX. Bush nephew George P. Bush will campaign for him this afternoon. (San Antonio Express-News)

As Gov. Mitt Romney shook off jet lag, his potential '08 opponents dutifully e-mailed thousands of Republicans on their respective supporter lists the news coverage of Romney's 1994 interview with Bay Windows, a gay newspaper in Boston, wherein Romney bragged that he'd outflank then opponent Ted Kennedy on gay rights issues.

The official Romney response begins with the assertion that he has never supported same-sex marriage. He has not, on the basic matter of equality for gay people, changed his opinion. Over the years, though, he has watched with dismay as gay rights activists tried to carve out special exemptions within the law. And by judicial fiat, the imposition of gay marriage attacked the privileged status of the nuclear family. In other words: events happened; Romney matured; he no longer is a crusader for gay rights.

As late as 2002, Romney's campaign apparatus was not embarrassed to be associated with the cause of gay and lesbian equality (sans marriage). So it's a recent evolution.

The danger for Romney right now is not that Tony Perkins and others will suddenly withhold their support. It's that he'll lose supporters he already has to Sam Brownback or Mike Huckabee. More broadly, it's that his conservatism is seen as synthetic, not authentic. Pro-life activists haven't been known to forgive recent conversions .There's a counter pressure, too: the press corps, and a small but not-insignificant chuck of the Republican electorate, wants Romney to own up to his moderate impulses on gay issues. Happily for Romney, he'll be forced to address his stance both in public and in private well before most Iowa caucus goers care whether his conservatism is Gothic or Queen Anne.

Michigan State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk was one of about a dozen state legislators who signed up for a Michigan Steering Committee put together by Romney’s Commonwealth PAC in late August. Six weeks ago, he met Romney and shared with him “some reservations” about the governor’s recent conversion on abortion rights. “The purpose of that meeting was for him to talk to a group of individuals, social conservatives, who had concerns about abortion and marriage and stem cell research.”

Some of the questions were answered, Hoogendyck said, to his satisfaction. Others were not. And the Bay Windows information “has not helped” Romney. “I guess my initial support was a little soft,” he says. Hoogendyk said he is not willing to withdraw his support, but he’s “a little reticent to get in wholeheartedly.” And he admits that the recent entrance of Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) “also gives me a pause to reconsider.” [MARC AMBINDER]

Squibs:

This Los Angeles Times piece by the well-connected former Miami Herald reporter Peter Wallsten contains solid hints that outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush is privately in Romney's corner.

College Republicans in Massachusetts endorsed Sen. John McCain on Sunday, including the pres. of the MA Alliance of College GOpers, Michael Mittenberger, and Brian Gwozdz, the MACR's exec. vice chair. Mittinberger: "Conservative College Republicans in Massachusetts appreciate Senator McCain's authenticity and straight talk and urge him to run for President. We look forward to building a strong youth organization for him in Massachusetts and helping in neighboring states and across the country."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Daley To Announce Today

JohnCombest.com -- LSL: Skelton To Lead House Armed Services Committee

NhNewslinks.com -- Landrigan: Find Out What The Hype's About

Quorum Report -- Bonnilla-Rodriguez Race Is 'Dogfight' To The End

Sayfie's Review -- Newsmax: Jeb Bush's Remarkable Record

WisPolitics.com -- McReynolds' Use Of Phone Deemed OK

Nashua Telegraph--NewsLandrigan: Find Out What The Hype’s About

Concord Monitor-- Rapturous Reception For Obama

Foster's Daily Democrat--N.H. Dems Ogle Obama

New Hampshire Union Leader--Obama Fever Grips NH

Nashua Telegraph--Obama's N.H. Visit Draws A Crowd

Portsmouth-Herald--Obama-Rama!

As we said in yesterday's Hotline, Gov. Mitt Romney's 1994 support for the full measure of gay rights -- sans gay marriage -- would make the doubting Dobsons of the world more nervous.

Today's New York Times finds a "shocked' (Shocked!) Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and an equally as anxious Paul Weyrich.

Neither of those two gentleman will play a dispositive role in determining the next Republican presidential nominee, although Romney has cozied up to Mr. Perkins: Romney recieved a standing ovation at a Family Research Council forum in Washington recently and was a featured speaker at Justice Sunday 4, which focused almost entirely on same-sex marriage.

Getting James Dobson on the telephone, or anyone from the Iowa Christian Alliance, or Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention -- that would be most interesting.

If you'd like to read the original Bay Windows story from 1994, click here.

Note: Romney does not endorse gay marriage here. He is a strong proponent of federalism, it seems, and opposes federal efforts to intervene in decisions he feels are best made by communities. But the differences in tone, at least, are fairly striking.

Here are some excerpts:

“For a number of years, I was chief executive at Bain and Co. It’s an environment that fosters openness and fights discrimination. I believe it is a good place for gay and lesbian individuals to work. I know of nothing in our workplace that doesn’t encourage promotion and compensation based on performance, without regard to personal differences, such as sexual orientation. I believe that my record, my life, is a clear indication of my support and insistence on anti-discrimination and on efforts to assure equal rights for all.”

I am aware of the legislation that Barney Frank proposed [the Employment Non-Discrimination Act] and do support that and would vote in favor of that.

“I think when people have a commitment to one another, either a heterosexual or homosexuals relationship, that they should have the benefit of visitation rights and leave privileges and things of that nature. The question for me in regards to the health care benefits would be to determine what the cost is, what the implications are, where one would draw the boundaries , how one would define commitment. And those are areas I haven’t studied so I won’t take a position on that. I do support generally the proposition that people in homosexual relationships should not be discriminated against in terms of employment benefits.”

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks!

CAN'T DISMISS DASCHLE
At least, not at the Center for American Progress where ex-Senate Min. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) appeared to discuss a new book.

BOLTON'S BOLT
Center for American Progress's Spencer Boyer considers the consequences.

WHO'S TAKING A HONEYMOON?
American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman examines a new Dem survey.

AND, WHO CAN DEFINE CONSERVATISM?
Aspen Institute's Alan Abramson, Philanthropy Roundtable's Adam Meyerson, and John Templeton Foundation's Kimon Sargeant took the question to debate.

CAN'T COUNT ON IRAN TO PICK UP THE PIECES
At least, that's what Brookings' Ken Pollack predicts.

HAVE WE LOST OUR MORALS?
Pollack plays devil's advocate, addressing the "rights and wrongs" of helping Iraq.

WHERE'S THE LINE BETWEEN BLUE AND RED?
Brookings' Pietro Nivola questions a panel for answers.

IT'S NO MSG, BUT STILL... HOW HEALTHY IS ISG?
Brookings' Carlos Pascual investigates.

THREE OF A KIND: BUSH AND...
Heritage Foundation's Kim Holmes invited a group to consider a new book...

WHAT'S THE STATE OF AMERICAN/IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY?
Hertiage Foundation's Matthew Spalding hosts a discussion.

*Talk at the CATO Institute was all about policy... politics makes a comeback on Monday.
[SARAH LOVENHEIM]

Have an idea for next week's Tank Talk?
Send your suggestions to Sarah, at slovenheim@nationaljournal.com.

Sen. Hillary Clinton, shuttling between New York and Washington, now has meetings scheduled with the leaders of at several major labor unions, including the International Associaton of Firefighters and the Service Employees International Union, to discuss her likely presidential campaign.

At least two of the meetings are tentatively scheduled for next week, Democrats with direct knowledge of the meetings said.

Unions, despite a steep decline in their numerical strength, remain powerful institutional allies of the Democratic Party, spending more than $100M in 2006 to elect Democratic candidates.

Labor union members make up about 15 percent of the delegates who attend the Democratic National Convention. But only one union endorsed the eventual winner of the primary in 2004, John Kerry -- the International Association of Firefighters. When Bill Clinton ran for president in 1992, AFSCME, a public employees union, broke ranks and gave him a pivotal endorsement before the New Hampshire primary. In office, Clinton kept AFSCME chief Gerald McEntee close but often rejected the union's advice on policy matters.

For the second cycle in a row, there is no consensus labor candidate. Ex-Sen. John Edwards teamed up with UniteHere, a service union, to back minimum wage hikes and several other union initiatives. That union is particularly strong in Nevada, where its Las Vegas affiliate represents tens of thousands of hotel and casino workers. (The AFL-CIO today presented Edwards with its Wellstone award.) Sen. Evan Byah (D-IN) is well-liked by several industrial unions, including the Auto Workers. Other labor unions assume that AFSCME's McEntee will quickly endorse Clinton. The SEIU, led by maverick Andy Stern, has no horse in the race.

It's unclear whether either major labor federation -- the AFL-CIO or the breakaway Change to Win coalition -- can muster a consensus for a joint endorsement, though discussions about the process have started. The unexpected presidential explorations of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) have also jumbled the calculus. Obama voted against CAFTA, which labor likes, but he’s associated with Robert Rubin, the former treasury secretary, on a big-think economy workup called The Hamilton Project. That makes labor nervous.

Senior members of Clinton's team continue to gauge the interest of Democratic consultants. Two Democratic ad makers acknowledged they have been contacted informally by a Clinton adviser to see whether they'd be interested in joining of a team of consultants who'd work on media for the campaign. But a Clinton aide cautioned that no firms have been hired and no decision about the structure of the media team had been made.

One Democrat said that Clinton's team hopes that Michael Whouley, the vaunted Democratic strategist who masterminded Sen. John Kerry's come-from-behind win in the Iowa caucuses and Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, would join her team later in the year. But Democrats close to Whouley say he will wait to see whether Kerry runs again before making any other decisions. Whouley is a principal of the Atlas Project, which aims to increase Democratic performance in presidential elections, and would likely play a key role in the Democratic nominee's general election campaign, regardless of who that nominee may be.

Separately, a Clinton aide said that the Senator planned to attend Renaissance Weekend, a New Year's gathering of prominent Americans, over the holidays.

Clinton's office has not confirmed reports that the New Hampshire Democratic Party has invited her to keynote its Team 100 fundraising dinner in early February. New Hampshire Dem chair Kathy Sullivan said that no announcements were imminent. [MARC AMBINDER]

This week on Hotline TV, we invite our staff writers up to tell you what's on their mind. We're talking a Hillary-Obama street brawl, the best in campaign books to stuff those stockings, the winners and losers in the consulting world, and, of course, the fastest two minutes in politics.

Visit HotlineTV.net for this week's big show, the latest news and predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes!

Wondering why certain WH hopefuls quickly announce their presidential bids while others lag behind? Hotline senior editor John Mercurio addresses models used in the past and compares them to those potential candidates might choose this year.

LA 02: LOST AND FOUND

Although the runoff's tomorrow, state Rep. Karen Carter (D) and Rep. William Jefferson (D) were nowhere to be seen in LA 02 yesterday. Jefferson spent the day in DC to vote on an offshore royalty revenue sharing bill, while Carter was "preparing to travel briefly" to Baton Rouge, LA to partake in the opening of a special legislative session. Their "conspicious absence" reflected "a weird campaign, even by Louisiana standards."

LA political analyst Ed Renwick: "It's almost Christmas, you got candidates not in their district, and I can't ever recall a big-deal debate on the night before an election," calling the days leading up to an election "a time usually reserved for energizing turnout."

Tulane prof. Brian Brox: "But for Jefferson, it might be a good thing, because he can vote on an isue important to Louisiana" (New Orleans Times-Picayune

TX 23: BORDER-LINE ISSUE

Despite the 700 miles of fencing along the Mexican border, Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) have "made it a point to avoid any discussion of immigration." At rallies in San Antonio and by the border, Bonilla and Rodriguez "spoke of health care, education and taxes, but not of immigration."

Yet immigration "is one of the most clear" differences between the two candidates. Bonilla favored a House bill making it a felony to be an illegal alien, and supported the creation of the fence. Rodriguez "voted strongly against both measures."

Although both candidates are of Mexican descent, Bonilla "shudders" at what he calls "psuedo-intellectuals" who try to stereotype him. Bonilla: "They always think that the color of your skin should dictate what your political philosophy is. Nothing can be more insulting" (USA Today).

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

Two famous-name internet strategists from the 2004 Democratic primary have signed on as advisers to the DraftObama.org campaign. Zephyr Teachout, who was one of the first staffers on Dean's internet campaign in 2004, and John Hlinko, who was one of the Draft Wesley Clark founders in 2003, have joined the unofficial draft movement aimed at getting the Senator from Illinois to run for President.

DraftObama.org was started by a government computer technician from Rockville, MD on a single Web page, but now boasts a national infrastructure with volunteers in every state.

However the Draft Clark movement had all of that and more (like $2.2 million to start) and failed, in part, because it could not transition quickly enough into a real ground campaign. At one point during the transition, draft staffers were meeting in the campaign HQ's basement bathroom to plan strategy under the professional staff's noses.

"There's no doubt that there was friction between the draft class and those who were brought on - the professionals," said Hlinko. "The draft was a very new kind of beast. I think we unfortunately lost a lot of time on that. We're in a very different position now and there would be time to fully integrate that."

Getting press was another problem for Draft Clark, something that likely won't occur with Obama because free media is his best asset. But the other practicial problems that plagued Clark, such as transfering the e-mail list and new staff, could incur if an organized movement snowballs before Obama announces his intentions.

"Whatever work you do in a draft movement should be viewed in the context of how you are helping a potential campaign," online strategist Larry Huynh, also one of the founders of the Draft Clark 2004 movement.

Huynh is an online strategist for Blackrock and Associates which not only manages Wesley Clark's online strategy, but also designs www.DickDurbin.com, which posted its own "Draft Obama" petition last week.

Byte:
*The online strategy firm formerly known as Right Click Strategies has changed its name to the "Aderfo Group" in order to reflect a change in its portfolio. According to Managing Director Jeff Mascott, Aderfo aims to grow its public affairs clients in addition to internet consulting for interest groups like the NFIB and Chamber of Commerice.

Like any college football fan, my disgust for the Bowl Championship Series system, which decides the sport's mythical national champion, knows no bounds. And since it's December (translation: slow news season), what better time to combine two of my passions in life -- politics and college football -- into one column?

Fortunately, unlike college football, the parties' nomination processes still include some playoffs (the primaries) but the way the field winnows prior to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries too closely resembles the backward methods the BCS uses when anointing two teams to play for the national title. So let's identify some of the same factors to narrow down the presidential field that sports writers and football coaches use to determine the national title contenders.

Now, let's look at the candidates in the race just by the strength of the schedule (i.e., the races they've run in the past and whether that prepares them for the tough task of the general). [CHUCK TODD]

Continue Reading On The Trail.

National Journal's latest survey of Democratic and Republican Insiders -- members of Congress, party activists, fundraisers, consultants, lobbyists, and interest-group leaders for whom presidential politics is an "all-engrossing topic" -- finds that Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain continue to be viewed as the candidates most likely to clinch the major parties' 2008 presidential nominations.

The Insiders' assessments of the 2008 contests have changed considerably since May. Back then, Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia was ranked second by his party's Insiders, after having been in first place throughout 2005. But on his way to losing his bid for a second term, Allen tripped repeatedly over his own feet -- and has now vanished from the top 10. Another Democrat, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, ran second in May but disappeared from the Insiders' top 10 after formally announcing that he will not run. Meanwhile, political phenomenon Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who in May made his first appearance on his party's top-10 list by grabbing the lowest rung, has rocketed to the No. 2 spot -- putting him just ahead of former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina but still well behind Clinton. [JAMES BARNES]

Continue reading about National Journal's poll of political insiders.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Is The Feud Over?

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Colin Powell Speaks Here About Iraq

NhNewslinks.com -- Now Speaking For The Governor...

Quorum Report -- CASEY: Will Real Guv Please STand Up?

Sayfie's Review -- Herald-Tribune: Jennings Gets Dean's Help

WisPolitics.com -- DC Wrap: Ryan Named Ranking GOP Member Of House Budget Committee, Petri And Sensenbrenner Denied

Still a lot of talk on the ISG along with review of the Pres. Bush/PM Blair presser:

CNN's Henry: "This is a president who does not like to admit mistakes and you could see his frustration today as reporters pressed that point about mistakes one day after the release of the Iraq Study Group's report" ("Situation Room," 12/7).

CNN's Roberts: "Even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the White House is hanging on fiercely to talking points on Iraq that now seem like so much wishful thinking" ("AC 360," 12/7).

MSNBC's Shuster: "The president aggressively defended the Iraq war by going back to an argument that helped sell the invasion to the American people nearly four years ago, the idea that without action now, rogue states and terrorist groups will someday blackmail the West with a nuclear weapon" ("Hardball," 12/7).

DON'T HAVE A PRESIDENTIAL NICKNAME? HERE'S WHY

Newsweek's Wolffe: "I don't know that the president is paranoid -- or even that he is that hostile to the press. ... Look at the body language in the press conference. He actually kind of enjoys this stuff. He hates leaks and he hates the punditry. There are certain people he has a special loathing for."

Asked who Bush hates the most, Wolffe: "Oh, I don't want to get into that."

MSNBC's Carlson: "Oh, go ahead. No one is listening."

Wolffe: "The group, the pack dynamic I think he doesn't like so much. But he enjoys the banter with the press. Look, even someone like NBC's very own David Gregory, who they love to beat up, they think very affectionately of and will talk to him all the time" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 12/7).[EMILY GOODIN]

From a release:

GOVERNOR RICHARDSON (D-NM) TELLS FOX NEWS CHANNEL’S CARL CAMERON THAT HE WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2008. TUNE INTO FOX NEWS CHANNEL’S SPECIAL REPORT WITH BRIT HUME AT 6:22 PM TODAY TO SEE THE FULL INTERVIEW.

Or not.

A dozen senators could be seriously contemplating White House bids. We know the names of the biggies in the top tier, but today Hotline TV takes a look at some of the second tier denizens. Which one has the chance to run with the big dogs and make it on our radar as a first-tier candidate?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

FL 13: DEAN'S DECLARATION

DNC Chair Howard Dean said the Dem-controlled Congress "should not seat" Vern Buchanan (R), insisting there are still "18,000 people who may have voted, and we don't know what happened to their votes." Dean, taking a jab at GOPers: "You can bet that if the Republicans were 500 votes short they'd be calling for a new election, and they'd be right." Although the House plans to swear in Buchanan 1/4, it "could unseat him later" or leave the seat vacant.

Meanwhile, Christine Jennings (D) will ask the House by 12/20 "to take the extreme measure of conducting its own investigation," which could set the stage for a "volatile political showdown" 1/4. Buchanan spokesperson Sally Tibbetts said the Jennings camp believes she's "putting her own interests above those of the 13th District. Although some members "privately say they hope to avoid the partisan warfare", Jennings said she " can't imagine anyone in government, regardless of party, that's not concerned with what happened" (St. Petersburg Times/Sayfie Review)

LA 02: LINE DANCING

Rep. William Jefferson (D) is "urging voters to look beyond the 21-month corruption investigation" that he claims "unfairly dominated news coverage and allowed his opponent to escape scrutiny." Jefferson, in attempt to "remind voters" he's not charged with a crime: "I'm not convicted of anything... Karen Carter would like to make this election about that and nothing else, but I think voters need to look at her own record, which I don't think warrants sending her to Washington."

Yet at a rally, state Rep. Karen Carter (D) "hammered home the message that Jefferson can't be effective" due to the "taint" of the ethics investigation, and the loss of the Ways and Means Cmte seat (New Orleans Times-Picayune)

Today's debate has been scheduled rescheduled for tomorrow – 10 hours before voters go to the polls.. Jefferson spokesperson Melanie Roussell said jefferson was ready to participate "via satellite" from DC but Carter "refused to accomodate" him. Carter spokesperson Cheron Brylski on Jefferson: "He's trying to control the setting... When it's not face to face, it's not a debate." (New Orleans Times-Picayune)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- "Pockets Of Resistance"

JohnCombest.com -- SNL: McCaskill Gets Down To Business

NhNewslinks.com -- Obama Appearance Sold Out

Quorum Report -- It's Official: Dist. 23 Runoff Next Tuesday

Sayfie's Review -- Times: Dean: Dems Should Keep Out Buchanan

WisPolitics.com -- Doyle Seeks Local Input On State Budget

"The truth is a lot of reports in Washington aren't read by anybody. To show you how important this report is, I read it." -- Pres. Bush, on the ISG report, at this a.m.’s presser, mult, 12/7.

A new Gallup poll hits upon an interesting idea. The company asked 1003 adults what came to their mind when they thought of one of four possible Dem presidential contenders in '08 and the open-ended question sheds fascinating light on the strengths and weaknesses of some Dem frount-runners.

Some highlights for each of the four contenders:

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY): She's "qualified" or "capable" of serving as president, according to 10%, "strong" and "intelligent" according to 14%. But 18% say they dislike her or that she wouldn't be good for the country and 6% call her "dishonest" or say they don't trust her. A positive former negative: Just 3% say she's too liberal.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL): 12% call him "young" or "inexperienced," while 7% say he's a "fresh face with new ideas." Obama's top responses are almost all positive, aside from those concerned with his inexperience. People call Obama "intelligent" (4%), "charismatic/dynamic/energetic" (4%), "honest" and "articulate" (2% each) before they say he's unelectable at the moment (2%).

Ex-VP Al Gore: Gore's movie was a convenient P.R. vehicle, as 13% associate him with environmentalism or global warming issues. Gore gets some negative marks, as 10% either don't like him or say he would be a bad candidate, while another 4% say he's "weak" or has "no backbone." 7% call him "not very smart" or "incompetent." On the plus side, 8% say he would be a good candidate while 5% say he was a good VP or is "experienced." 10%, though, think Gore is "past his time," and in an answer unique to this poll, 3% called him "crazy." We kid you not.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA): The source of our big number. Of the top 10 answers given about Kerry, 9 are negative -- some astoundingly so. Plenty say he's "dishonest" (6%) or "wishy-washy" (6%), while 7% don't like him. Like Gore, a sizeable portion -- 12% -- think he's had his shot. Just 4% say he would make a good candidate, but that same percentage actually call him a "traitor" and "disloyal to the military." Are memories of Swift Boat Vets really still lingering?

The poll surveyed 1003 adults on Gallup's national panel between 11/27-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% and was released today. Gallup tells us they have yet to conduct similar questions for top GOP candidates. Full poll, with every answer garnering more than 4%, if you hit the jump [REID WILSON].

Excerpts from Sen. Bill Frist's swan speech today:

12 years ago….the people of Tennessee took a great chance. They took a chance on a little known doctor who had never held a public office, who had never run for public office. They began by opening their minds, and then their homes, then their lives and their hearts. And I’m eternally grateful to them for giving me that trust and taking that chance.

“It is,” my Dad used to day, “a powerful thing to know where you are going in life, but it is equally powerful to know where you have come from.”

To the good people of Tennessee, I thank you for never letting me forget where I’ve come from. You’ve never let me forget those promises made on the trail over a decade ago…the promises that have been at the heart of everything we’ve done.

Yours are the voices that have called out to me from Mountain City to Memphis. The people who are out there working day-in and day out to take care of a family, to grow a business, to run a farm, to get ahead.

Gov. Mitt Romney 's top aide, Beth Myers, is likely to serve as campaign manager if he decides to run for president, Republican sources said.

Myers is currently the exec. dir of Romney’s Commonwealth PAC. She had been his gubernatorial chief of staff. Republicans familiar with the decision said Myers has Romney’s total confidence and an ability to keep her eye on the big picture. She's known as a tough manager, complimenting Romney's executive-oriented decision-making style.

Myers was formerly chief of staff to Mass. Treasurer Joe Malone. Myers got her start in Texas politics. A PAC spokesman declined to comment. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Washington Post this morning confirms that Terry Nelson is Sen. John McCain's campaign manager.

Brian Jones, currently the RNC's communications director, will serve as communications director. Several of Jones's current colleagues are expected to join McCain's press team in more junior roles.

"Terry Nelson's management skills and political acumen built the historic Bush-Cheney 04 turnout machine brick by brick," RNC chairman Ken Mehlman told us in an e-mail. And "Brian Jones has fantastic judgment, the respect of the press, good management skills, creativity, and a commitment to excellence."

We'll add that Michael Dennehy, who ran New Hampshire for McCain in '00, will serve as national political director. Rick Davis, McCain's manager in '00, will serve as campaign CEO with an emphasis on policy and fundraising management. Mark Salter, McCain's alter ego and Senate chief of staff, will serve as counselor, helping McCain craft his speeches and working with the communications team. And John Weaver, the architect of all of this, will serve as chief strategist.

Rounding out the upper echelon: Lance Tarrance Jr. will serve as a senior strategist and research director. Bill McInturff will serve as the chief pollster. Mark McKinnon will serve as chief media strategist and coordinate the work of admakers. Former Sen. Phil Gramm and ex-USTR Robert Zoellick will help McCain devise domestic and international policy. Ex-FEC chairman Trevor Potter will be McCain's general counsel. Carla Eudy, his long-time finance guru, will take a lead role in that department.

Two governors: Jon Huntsman Jr. of Utah and Tim Pawlenty of MN will play major roles.

Prominent Republicans who have agreed to consult and advise the operation include a prominent California operative Gerald Parsky, Nevada's Sig Rogich, McCain '00 adviser Greg Stevens.

One McCain adviser estimates that they've received about 40 resumes for every open campaign position. [MARC AMBINDER]

Per a statement from FEC chairman Michael Toner:

This morning I sent President Bush a letter indicating that I plan to step down from the Federal Election Commission this winter to pursue other professional opportunities. My one-year term as Chairman of the Federal Election Commission ends on January 1, 2007.

It has been a tremendous honor to serve as a Commissioner at the Federal Election Commission for the last 4 1/2 years. During that time, the Commission successfully implemented the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, which made the most significant changes to the federal election laws in a generation. I am particularly pleased that earlier this year the Commission issued regulations protecting on-line political speech from many of the restrictions and prohibitions of the campaign finance laws. In so doing, the Commission ensured that millions of Americans in the future will have the ability to use the Internet to support the candidates of their choice without fear of FEC investigation or restriction.

It was all about the Iraq Study Group report last night.

MSNBC's Shuster: "Senate hearings on the recommendations will begin tomorrow, putting even more pressure on the White House. Meanwhile, the violence in Iraq continues. According to U.S. military officials, insurgents carried out a string of attacks across Iraq today and 10 American soldiers were killed" ("Hardball," 12/6).

CNN's Roberts: "If there were any lingering doubts about how bad things are in Iraq, they were pretty much erased" ("AC 360," 12/6).

FNC's Angle: "The Iraq Study Group says there is no magic formula to solve Iraq's problems, but embraced the president's goal of an Iraq that can govern itself, sustain itself, and defend itself" ("Special Report," 12/6).

NBC's Gregory: "You cannot read this report and hear the comments from the chairman without concluding that this is a rejection of the way the president has been handling the war" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/6).

NBC's Russert: "This was such a sobering report -- powerful, passionate, bipartisan, unanimous. I think it's not only a wake-up call for the Bush White House but I think for the whole country" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/5).

CNN's Henry: "His back against the wall, President Bush tried to put the best face on the Iraq Study Group's report" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/6).

FNC's Garrett: "House and Senate Democrats greeted the Iraq Study Group report as vindication and wasted no time in taking a rhetorical victory lap" ("Special Report," 12/6).

CNN's Bash: "Just the image the Iraq Study Group says the country needs: Democrats and Republicans confronting the Iraq crisis side by side. But the first reflex of Democrats poised to take control of Congress was, 'I told you so'" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/6).

THE CHAIRS MAKE THE TV ROUNDS

Co-chairs James Baker and Lee Hamilton were everywhere:

Hamilton: "We tried very hard in this report to set up goals and recommendations that are achievable, achievable in both countries, looking at both countries very pragmatically. We've got a big split in this country, Democrats control Congress, Republicans control the White House, all kinds of splits within the Congress, the American people soured on the war. You have to take all of that into consideration when you make recommendations. But, likewise, you have to take into consideration the environment in Iraq, as well" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/6).

Baker: "We're still going to have a very robust force presence in Iraq and in the region for quite a number of years after this thing sorts itself out, which ever way it sorts itself out. We have to do that, because we have vital national interests in that region. We have the problem of al Qaeda. We cannot leave the country to be a Taliban-like base for al Qaeda" ("AC 360," CNN, 12/6).

More Baker: "I think there are going to be a lot of people who will, a lot of self-proscribed experts who will have their preferred approach and they might not like ours. There will be a lot of people who won't like ours for other reasons" ("LKL," CNN, 12/6).

WH REAX

WH Counselor Dan Bartlett: "We're not going to have an instant analysis of every piece of information coming out just yet. There is a robust review under way by the administration, by the military leadership, by the national security staff. So there's a lot of activity under way, but the president was deeply grateful for the service to the country that these people provided by producing this report" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/6).

More Bartlett: "No question it was a bleak assessment provided by the ISG. It's a tough situation right now in Iraq" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 12/6).

WH spokesperson Tony Snow: "Since they finished up the report last week before the ink had dried, you saw some evidence that the Iraqi government understands the problem and is dealing with it" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 12/6).

'08ers HAVE AN OPINION TOO

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA): "This study group does not do as much of the job as I think we still need to get done" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 12/6).

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT): "The most important audience for this commission report are in Iraq and within the region. Most of these recommendations call upon the Iraqis to do things differently" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/6).

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE): "The fact is the future of Iraq will be determined by the Iraqi people. It's not going to be determined by us" ("NewsHour," PBS, 12/6).

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), asked what will happen if Bush doesn't follow the report recommendations: "I don't want to speculate on that right now. The fact of the matter is the president is the commander-in-chief. As much as we object to what he is doing, ultimately we are expecting leadership from the White House on this issue. The one power that we have in Congress is the power of the purse. I see no appetite, and certainly I would not support, actually restricting funds that we need to make sure that our troops are protected and successful. But I think the interesting thing ... is that you're going to see at least as much pressure, if not more pressure, from within the president's own party, to take these recommendations seriously, because I think they recognize that not only is America paying a price for misguided policies, but the Republican Party is paying a political price, as well" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/6).

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI): "This is really a Washington inside job, and it shows not in the description of what's happened, that's fairly accurate, but it shows in the recommendations. It's been called a classic Washington compromise that does not do the job of extricating us from Iraq in a way that we can deal with the issues in Southeast Asia, in Afghanistan, and in Somalia, which are every bit as important as what is happening in Iraq. So this report does not do the job, and it's because it was not composed of a real representative group of Americans, who believe what the American people showed in the election, which is that it is time for us to have a timetable to bring the troops out of Iraq" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 12/6).

AND SPEAKING OF '08

Obama, of course, was also asked about WH '08:

CNN's Blitzer: "You want to be president or you want to be vice president?"

Obama: "Well, you don't run for vice president."

Blitzer: "So what does that mean? You want to run for president?"

Obama: "I answered the question, Wolf. I've got to go vote" ("Situation Room," CNN, 12/6). [EMILY GOODIN]

NH GOP Chair Wayne Semprini has resigned, citing health problems, per www.nh2008.blogspot.com

Even before Republicans were battered in November's elections, the state GOP had problems, both mundane and profound. Bad publicity from the 2002 phone jamming scandal, serious divisions about party priorities, a dispute between moderates and conservatives -- these were simply the first layer of problems.

Now, Sens. Judd Gregg and John Sununu are looking for a consensus candidate. They're working with many '08 Republican hopefuls to come up with the right name. [MARC AMBINDER]

Thursday, Gov. Bill Richardson D-NM) unveils a set of principles he hopes will guide the immigration debate from now through 2008. Richardson won't announce his presidential plans until January, when he's sworn in for a second term. He'll probably show some leg before 1/17, when the legislature, full of famously independent Democrats and fewer Republicans, comes to order.

Richardson will first propose to expand the number of visas available to those seeking employment. He'll propose an increase in the size of the Border Patrol. He'll promote engagement with Mexico, having met recently with Mexico's new president. The goal is for Mexico to acknowledge that illegal immigration to the US is an actual problem. Richardson will call the concept of a border fence "ridiculous" -- ineffective and unworkable. And he'll call for a "reasonable but tough" path for illegal immigrants to earn their citizenship.

Richardson speaks tomorrow at Georgetown's Gaston Hall. [MARC AMBINDER]

TX-23: HOW TERROR-FYING!

Rallying a group of supporters, ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) "deplored" Rep. Henry Bonilla's (R) attempt to "take this campaign into the gutter" by suggesting a link between Rodriguez and terrorism -- a "dangerous judgment" according to Bonilla. Rodriguez was referring to a '99 bill Bonilla sponsored that he said "helped keep terrorists out of jail" and a donation Bonilla "accepted" from a man "later convicted of illegal business ties with Libya."

In his defense, Rodriguez called the legislation "an effort to ensure" that people have "the right to know the charges he is being accused of" before going to prison -- a bill he said Pres. Bush "commented favorably on" (San Antonio Express-News).

San Antonio Express-News Castillo writes that although the latest scoop from Dems was that Rodriguez had "pulled within 3 percentage points" of Bonilla, the buzz was "nothing more than scuttlebutt." Still, he said Bonilla's decision to go "negative in nuclear fashion" reveals " that this race is tighter than he expected." What's more, Bonilla's "dreams" of a Senate run may explain why he "chose the desperate route of going nuclear" (12/6).

FL 13: PRIDE OR PREJUDICE?

It could be "well into the 110th Congress" before a FL 13 member is "seated by the House." The "next several weeks" on Capitol Hill in the courts "could prove explosive." Meanwhile, Jennings is meeting "drumming up financial support."

Speaker-Elect Nancy Pelosi (D) holds the "power" to give the seat to Jennings. Yet such a move could "create hard feelings" among GOPers, which could dissuade Pelosi from making the decision (Sarasota Herald-Tribune)

LA 02: MARK YOUR CALENDAR

As the 12/9 runoff approaches, state Rep. Karen Carter's (D) concentrating on Rep. William Jefferson's (D) "ongoing legal problem." Carter said that while her honesty and integrity "have never been questioned," she considers Jefferson's "ineffective for this community."

In turn, Jefferson's camp has questioned Carter's credentials. Jefferson spokesperson Melanie Roussell said Carter's "cozied up with the insurance companies who are robbing us."

Carter said the runoff results will depend on two factors: "Whether people sense the urgency associated with this recovery, and whether they feel like Washington and the nation is watching Louisiana" (Baton Rouge Advocate)

In an afternoon release, Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) called the Report "a realistic view of how far the situation has deteriorated." He seemed to agree with three R's in particular:

Rhetoric:

Redeployment:

(Calls For A) Regional Summit:

Over lunch with NH GOP lawmakers, Gov. George Pataki (R) "said he agrees" with the Iraq Study Group "that the number of U.S. troops embedded to train Iraqi forces be dramatically increased." Pataki: "I think that's part of making Iraqi's take the lead." For this to happen, he suggested:

Leave It To Iraq

Let 'Em Want It To Win it

The Past's A Key To Present

(AP/Boston Globe)

Races in Florida, Texas and Louisiana are still undecided. Two runoffs to go, plus a new version of Indiana's "Bloody 8th"?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY), after being briefed on the Iraq Study Group Report and discussing it this a.m. with incoming-Defense Secretary Dr. Robert Gates, said the report shows "We need a dramatic change of course in Iraq, including a redeployment of American troops." What's more, she offered a:

Wish For The WH:

Presidential Message:

Personal Plans:

(release)

Sen. John McCain and his long-time administrative assistant, Mark Salter, will spend part of the Christmas holiday completing a non-fiction book, their fifth, timed for a late August 2007 release.

The book's working title is "Hard Call," and it explores what Salter calls "historically significant decisions, not just political and military but from many other endeavors, like business, medicine and science." Six general qualities, McCain and Salter believe, generally distinguish successful decisions from failures.

One is awareness, which Salter describes as the "awareness the risks and opportunities and the environment and personal characteristics of the decision-maker." Another is timing: Western Union refused to buy a patent from Alexander Graham Bell's father because they didn't see how it would help the telegraph business. Whoops! A third quality, per the authors, is confidence: do the decision-makers have the fortitude and resources to see the decision through to its conclusion. The fourth is foresight -- an attribute they apply to Churchill's sense of the gathering Nazi threat. The fifth is humility -- can the decision-maker put others' interests above his or her own? And finally, sixth: inspiration. For some, it's faith. For others, it's duty, as in Alexander Solzhenitsyn's decision to publish the Gulag Archipelago because he had a "duty to the dead."

It's unclear whether part of the book will touch on the Iraq War. The subject may be addressed in a forward or an afterward, both yet to be written. Salter acknowledges that the book could well serve as a touchstone for McCain, in interviews or speeches, to apply the lessons of decision-making to Iraq, and certainly will guide his thinking about the critical decisions he'll make if elected president.

McCain and Salter's well-reviewed first book, "Faith of My Fathers," served as the Senator's family memoir. It became a bestseller upon publication in Aug. of '99 and added heft to his presidential campaign. In 2002, they published "Worth Fighting For," which was largely autobiographical. In 2004, they published a book on courage. And in 2005, they wrote a book for young people, entitled "Character Is Destiny: Inspiring Stories Every Young Person Should Know and Every Adult Should Remember." The tomes have all been edited by John Karp, who now has his own imprint at Time Warner. McCain and Salter are working for the first time with a researcher, Mike Hill.

Other '08 books on the horizon include:

Ex-Sen. John Edwards’s “Home” is in bookstores now.

Gov. Mike Huckabee's "From Hope To Higher Ground: 12 Stops to Restoring America’s Greatness."

Sen. John Kerry is co-writing a book with wife Teresa; it’s out this Spring.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's "It Takes A Village" – to be reissued this month with a new forward.

Ex-VP Al Gore's "The Assault On Reason" -- fall '07.

Ret. Gen. Wes Clark's "America's Son" -- fall '07. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Capitol Fax -- Tribune: Obama Should Run

JohnCombest.com -- Blunt, Sebelius Share The Dais

NhNewslinks.com -- Dickinson Back In Government With Budget Committee Appointment

Quorum Report -- CASTILLO: Bonilla Is Traveling Dangerous Path As Runoff Vote Approaches

Sayfie's Review -- Special Session Doesn't Deter Insurance Hike Request

WisPolitics.com -- Legislators, Lt. Gov. Discuss Need For Ethics Reform

Iraq continues to dominate the TV talk:

ABC's Moran interviewed Sens. Barack Obama (D-IL), Joe Biden (D-DE) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) about their positions on Iraq.

Obama: "I'm not calling for complete withdrawal tomorrow. What I am suggesting is that if we send a signal to them that we will not be there for perpetuity. Then they've got to start making some decisions about what is this country gonna look like?"

More Obama: "We have no good options at this point. We have bad options and worse options. And each option we exercise, carries with it risks. There is no doubt that if we begin a phased withdrawal, there's a possibility that you would see a spike initially in violence in Iraq. I think we have a responsibility to exit as carefully as we were careless in going in. But there has to be something to change the dynamic in a fundamental way."

Graham: "When I say we need more troops, I know what that entails. That means more Americans are gonna get killed and injured." More: "If we can control the violence ... if we can give the politicians in Iraq a little breathing space from the violence, I am still convinced that there are more people in Iraq who want to live as one nation, not three nations. And they wanna embrace the rule of law. And they want their country to be different and better than Saddam Hussein created for them. I still believe that."

Biden: "We need a political solution." More: "Keep the central government, controlling currency, the borders, their national army, and the distribution of the oil. Give them control over their local police, as their constitution calls for. Control over their local laws. Control over the local education. Control over the local distribution of funding. Control over those social laws. Just like we have the difference between California and Maryland. Those differences" ("Nightline," 12/5).

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) was on "Hardball" to talk about the situation in Iraq.

Kerry: "It seems as if the Iraq Study Group under Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton is moving in the direction that I and others have been arguing we should be moving in."

More: "I think this commission gives everybody an opportunity to step back, hopefully, and move in the right direction. And my hope is the president will look for bipartisan support to do that. I don't think you can do it any other way."

Asked if he's going to vote for Gates: "Yes, I will. And I think that that's a refreshing statement, just having a secretary of defense, potential, who has now acknowledged that we've got to do better and we've got to change" (MSNBC, 12/5).

HEARING THE BLUNT TALK

Lots of talk on the Robert Gates' hearing:

FNC's Garrett: "Gates gave the Senate Armed Services Committee, especially it's Democratic members, just what they sought on Iraq, unvarnished candor" ("Special Report," 12/5).

CNN's McIntyre: "Gates was showered with plaudits for his candor from the senators, especially for his candid admission the U.S. is not currently winning the war" ("AC 360," 12/5).

MSNBC's Shuster: "On Iraq, Gates showed enough contrition on behalf of the Bush administration and signaled enough flexibility to all but assure his confirmation" ("Hardball," 12/5).

CNN's Henry: "The president is obviously thrilled that Robert Gates has cleared this first hurdle in the confirmation process, but the White House is already in an uncomfortable position because of that blunt assessment from the nominee" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 12/5).

Newsweek's Wolffe: "There was nothing that Gates said today that wasn't thoroughly rehearsed and thoroughly vetted by the White House and by everyone in the administration" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 12/5).

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) was in the "Situation Room" to discuss the Gates nomination.

Bayh: "He impressed me as being more candid, more open-minded and more realistic than what we've been seeing out of the administration these last six years."

On WH '08: "I can tell you that I have a keen appreciation of the challenges that face our country, an agenda for dealing with those challenges, a proven track record of delivering the kind of results when I was governor or my state that the American people, I think, are hungry for in Washington. And perhaps more than anything else, ... our nation's capital has broken down. We need someone who can unite Democrats, Independents and Republicans in a politics of common purpose to move our country forward. That's not happening today. But it's something I demonstrated repeatedly an ability to do and I think that's something we're going the need in the next president."

On campaign cash: "We have about $10,700,000 on hand right now ... which is a good start. But there's still work to be done" (CNN, 12/5). [EMILY GOODIN]

The Fix's Chris Cillizza reports that Gov. Mitt Romney has retained the services of Matt Rhoades, the former research director of the RNC. Rhoades will be a senior communications strategist and probably serve the campaign as communications director. He'll work closely with Kevin Madden, brought on to be the national spokesman.

Rhoades was the research director for Bush-Cheney '04. He kept the Kerry portfolio. Whatever Kerry said, Rhaodes knew the ten things he'd say next. With Steve Schmidt, he ran the campaign's famous rapid-response warroom.

Campaign officials credit him with doing more than just about any other staffer to define John Kerry as weak, wimpy, French and flip-floppy -- an unacceptable Commander in Chief.

And now, he'll handle a larger portfolio, designing a communications strategy and overseeing research against opponents Republican and Democrat.

You won't see Rhoades quoted by name, and he rarely talks to the press. But Republican insiders say he has a preternatural understanding of news cycles and the folkways of the establishment (and non-establishment) media. And as Cillizza reports, he has a direct line to Matt Drudge, who can still (despite some slippage) drive network news coverage. Finally, he's one of the best opposition researchers in the business.

And that's why he's the Hotline's Get Of The Week.

READY FOR THE RUNOFF?

Ex-Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) has a formidable financial hurdle to overcome in his runoff against Rep. Henry Bonilla (R-TX 23). The incumbent has spent nearly 20 times more than Rodriguez over the last month. And Rodriguez has depended on the DCCC for TV advertising.

-- But redistricting has given Dems some hope for an upset. Seven opponents held Bonilla under 50% (49%) in a reconfigured CD, which encompasses south San Antonio -- including parts of Rodriguez's base from his old seat in Congress.

-- The new CD also brings in poorer Hispanics, receptive to a more liberal message. The GOP lost ground with Latinos in the midterms. If the trend continues and party trumps ethnicity (Bonilla is one of the leading Latino GOPers), Bonilla could be in trouble.

-- The race also pits demographics against money and organization. Rodriguez has already run twice in the last two years, losing both times. Will he capitalize on the new CD and the anti-GOP tide, or will Bonilla's superior infrastructure carry him to victory?[JOSH KRAUSHAAR]

LA 02: AD WAR GOES FROM BAD TO VERSE

State Rep. Karen Carter (D) launched a radio ad this week attacking Carter. In the ad, she alleges that while she was on CNN post-Hurricane Katrina demanding "buses and gas" to evacuate residents, Jefferson had a Nat'l Guard escort bring him to his Uptown home to pick up a laptop. The ad's announcer delivers the narrative "as a poem, a la 'Twas the Night Before Christmas." To highlight one segment: "Karen Carter made headlines, pleading for buses and gas; to help desperate people in the Dome, and on the Claiborne overpass. In the meantime Bill Jefferson couldn't be found. Oh, that's right, two Humvees and a chopper had taken him Uptown."

It may not be a campaign manager, but ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is bulking up on financial management experience. Next week, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Management Sandra Pack will leave her post and head to Giuliani's exploratory committee, her office confirms.

Pack was Chief Financial Officer for the Bush-Cheney ’04 campaign, as well as the Bush-Cheney '00 treasury director, and has previous experience in financial management as Assistant Secretary of the Army. The certified public accountant served as a financial officer for the presidential campaigns of Bob Dole and Phil Gramm, as well.

That Pack would leave a prestigious government job for Giuliani's exploratory committee is a sign that he is very likely to run. [REID WILSON]

Conservative? Check. Purple state creds? Check. Money-raising ability? Check. Last name? Oooh, we have a problem. Is a Jeb Bush presidential bid really out of the question, or could he take a shot?