Insider Interview: Nick Ryan
What's happening to GOPers in IA? Why is the state so politically quixotic? Does the Ames straw poll really matter? Before he gets nabbed by an '08 GOP (and he's being recruited by several), The Hotline interviewed Nick Ryan, campaign mgr. for Jim Nussle's IA GOV bid.
HOTLINE: How much danger is there that the Iowa GOP is becoming a regional party within the state?
Nick Ryan: The dominant party in Iowa is no party -- and it grows every passing year. Republicans historically always perform well in Western Iowa, and there is no doubt that as a party we are suffering in our performance in Eastern Iowa. Looking at central and eastern Iowa -- I think Republicans can be encouraged that the right candidates CAN win there. Absent the 2006 wave, both congressional seats in eastern Iowa were held by Republicans -- by two very good, effective congressmen (Nussle and Leach). At every level -- be it federal, state or local - by recruiting good candidates we can win. Remember, the dominant party in Eastern Iowa is no party - not Republican or Democrat.
How did Bush win in 04 and Dems succeed in 00, 02 and 06?
The President and his team ran an incredibly effective campaign in 2004. Plus, Republicans were as unified as I have ever seen in campaigning for a candidate. In statewide elections, Dems did well in Iowa in 00, 02 and 06. However, in 00 and 02, the results were not as strong for Dems. You will remember that in 02, the Dems placed big bets on challengers to Nussle, Leach and Latham -- and came up losers in all matches. That example illustrates the paradox that is Iowa -- people here vote for the person, not the party. And that explains how Harkin and Vilsack can win in the same year by comfortable margins - and so can Republican congressional candidates.
Can Harkin be beat? If so, what kind of candidate can beat him?
This is Iowa -- any politician can be beat with the right candidate and the right campaign. The right candidate to run against Harkin is one that provides voters a clear contrast in not only policy but in personality and diversity of background. In 2006 Senate races, Democrats across the country played contrast well with their candidates - that is what would need to be done with Harkin in order to be successful.
What newspapers/interest group endorsements matter?
I think the Iowa Farm Bureau endorsement carries the most weight because of their statewide reach, large membership numbers, and all the added value they provide to a campaign in terms of additional communications and advocacy. Other interest groups add great value by educating their membership and mobilizing them. However, no one has the reach of the Farm Bureau. I think the time where newspaper endorsements had any real effect is long gone.
How many Republicans do you expect to caucus in '08?
I would expect right around 100,000
Will immigration play a role in winnowing the '08 GOP field?
I think immigration will play a very key role in winnowing the '08 GOP field. There is little doubt that immigration is a defining issue for not just Republicans, but Iowans and Americans as a whole. And currently there are real defining differences between the presidential candidates on what the best approach is to the problem.
Does the Ames straw poll still matter? If so, why?
It absolutely matters. I have no doubt that the Ames straw poll will likely winnow the field of contenders. The race currently has 2 clear front runners in Iowa -- Senator McCain and Governor Romney. The straw poll will be a test for each of them to position who has developed the best organization at that point in the campaign. Additionally, for all the other candidates that may enter the race, the straw poll provides an opportunity for them to jumpstart their campaign, reshape the face of the race, and energetically move forward as they head toward caucus day.
What are the geographic/demographic keys to victory statewide in '08?
Iowa is a very purple state and I think that 2004 was a tipping point for us in the base turnout war. Just like any party, we will always need to be mindful of turning out our base. However, elections in Iowa will be won or lost with no party voters instead of piling up large winning margins in one part of the state to offset large losing margins in another part of the state.
How deep is the GOP bench?
I think we are at a transition point as a party - there are some new up and coming Republican leaders that are fresh faces to the party. They need to gain more experience and exposure, but there are some very good people on the bench.
- Secretary of Agriculture-elect Bill Northey
- State Auditor David Vaudt
- Bill Dix (fmr. State rep, candidate in IA-01)
- Brian Kennedy (fmr. State chair, candidate in IA-01)
- Rep. Kraig Paulsen (State House Minority Whip)
- Jeff Lamberti (fmr. Iowa Senate President, candidate in IA-03)
What about the up-and-coming Dems?
- Rep. Geri Huser
- Rep. Kevin McCarthy (incoming State House Majority Leader)
- Rep. Swati Dandekar
- Sen. Jeff Danielson (incoming President Pro Tempore)
- Sen. Tom Hancock
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