On The Trail: A Long-Term Senate Democratic Majority?
One reason why Republicans were particularly depressed about losing the Senate this cycle was the demoralizing realization that the party may not have another realistic shot at getting the majority back until 2012.
It's tough to rank the next round of races this early, because it's inevitable that they will be shaken up as incumbents choose whether or not to seek re-election.
In fact, Democrats weren't supposed to pick up any seats in 2006, because the GOP appeared to have the better opportunities. After all, despite holding just 45 seats (counting Vermont independent Jim Jeffords'), Democrats had to defend 18. Furthermore, four of the five Democrats who knocked off GOP incumbents in 2000 were facing their first re-election contests this year.
It's tough to rank the next round of races this early, because it's inevitable that they will be shaken up as incumbents choose whether or not to seek re-election. So for now, with the help of Hotline state editor Quinn McCord, I'm breaking the list into four groups: a current top 10 based on vulnerability; a retirement "watch list"; the recruitment-dependent contests; and the likely "fuhgeddaboudits." [CHUCK TODD]
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