The Big Number: 64
Two major polling organizations -- USA Today/Gallup and CBS News -- came out with big polls dissecting public opinion on the war in Iraq in the wake of the Iraq Study Group report, and the results could be a sobering wake-up call for the Bush administration. We say "could be" because the public holds so much distrust and angst about the war in Iraq that it may simply be too late for the Bush admin to turn things around.
Some of the polls', well, low-lights:
A majority of Americans think neither side is winning the war (64% in Gallup's, 63% in the CBS poll), though a slightly greater percentage choose the Iraqi insurgency (17% and 18%, respectively) than the U.S. and its allies (16% and 15%).
A majority thinks the U.S. should keep a significant number of troops in Iraq for less than a year (55% in the Gallup survey), while in CBS's poll, 59% say the U.S. should either decrease troop levels or remove troops altogether.
The war, say majorities, was a mistake. That's nothing new - a majority has agreed that the war was a mistake in most Gallup polls since early May 2005, with few exceptions. 53% continue to agree, while 62% called sending troops to Iraq a mistake in the CBS poll.
It's not getting any easier, either. Just 8% say the situation in Iraq is getting better, while 52% say it's getting worse, according to CBS. The same poll shows 71% believe U.S. efforts in the country are going somewhat or very badly
Is it worth it? The big number today is 64, the percent of Americans who say the costs of succeeding in Iraq outweigh the benefits to the U.S. Just 33% of the Gallup sample feel the opposite way. 53% in the CBS poll say the U.S. is not likely to succeed. In a smaller Washington Post/ABC News poll, only 36% say the war was worth it, as 61% say it wasn't.
And as President Bush talks about his administration's strategy for the war, it's not clear he's helping his own case. The WaPo/ABC poll shows just 28% approving of his handling of the situation in Iraq, an all-time low. That's actually 7 points better than the CBS sample. Also according to CBS, Americans trust Congressional Democrats nearly 2-1 (53%-27%) over Bush in making the right decisions about Iraq. Finally, CBS shows just 28% of Americans have confidence in Bush's ability to make the right decisions about Iraq, while 70% are uneasy.
It doesn't get any better in Gallup. 46% say they trust Bush "a great deal" or "a fair amount" to recommend the right thing to do in Iraq, far below the aggregates for Congressional Democrats (58%), the Iraq Study Group (66%) and even Sen. John McCain (63%).
If the ISG report serves as a warning and a call for change, as Bush has signaled - news reports today suggest a new strategy in Iraq will be announced early next month - it is doubtful any action will be sufficient to reverse these dismal numbers.
As Americans perceive everything in Iraq as going so poorly, Pres. Bush's approval rating has actually sunk from last quarter (31% in the CBS poll, 36% in the Washington Post/ABC poll and 38% in the USA Today/Gallup poll), breaking a string of years in which, going into the holiday season, his numbers have risen. It remains to be seen if January's State of the Union -- typically a boost for presidential poll numbers -- will provide Bush an opportunity to come back. [REID WILSON]
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