HRH Extra: Southern Comfort
From CongressDaily:
Thomas Schaller has a provocative message to Democrats in his new book "Whistling Past Dixie." The University of Maryland-Baltimore County professor argues that they have been too solicitous in courting Southern voters, who have rebuffed them election after election.
It's an understandable point. Former Vice President Al Gore and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., were both shut out in the South, and Southern Democrats are outnumbered in the Senate, 19-5.
But the Democrats' performance in the South during the 2006 midterms might temper some of Schaller's argument. They won the majority of the vote in many vote-rich Southern states often considered out of reach.
In North Carolina, Democrats won 52 percent of the overall House vote -- their first majority this decade. Only 54 percent of Texas voters cast ballots for Republicans, comparable to the pre-redistricting numbers. Even a majority of voters in Tennessee -- a state that didn't vote for native son Gore in 2000 -- cast more than half of their ballots for House Democrats.
This doesn't mean that, all of a sudden, the South is primed to shift longstanding allegiances. But understanding why the Democrats made inroads -- and recognizing that the South's electoral influence is growing, not shrinking -- is critical for long-term Democratic success.
A focus on the Southwest to the exclusion of the South is a reactive strategy. The Southwest has been trending Democratic and will be an important part of future geographic coalitions. But new growth areas are taking place in the areas Schaller advises Democrats to ignore [JOSH KRAUSHAAR].
Pre- and post-redistricting statewide house numbers shouldn't change very much. The only real effect would be a more limited number of competitive races.