According to the CBS "Evening News," John McCain announced his candidacy during his appearance with David Letterman. From the "Evening News" broadcast:
At 6:49pm (bit late in the broadcast),
Katie Couric: "Well we've been expecting it for some time, but today Sen. John McCain made it official."
Clip:
McCain: "I am announcing that I will be a candidate for president of the United States."
Letterman: "Oh!"
Back to Katie:
Couric: "The Arizona Republican made the announcement during the taping of tonight's 'Late Show with David Letterman.' This will be his second run for the White House. He lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush in 2000."
Couric then transitioned to the McCain-Kennedy "comprehensive new immigration bill."
While McCain appearing on an info-tainment show is not news, his choice of announcing on Letterman is intriguing for two reasons. 1) Letterman is considered a bit more "blue state" than his counterpart Jay Leno. 2) Nothing says "I'm not old" than announcing on one of the late night shows.
One key question: Does this mean McCain's "why I am running for president" announcement is going to come sooner (i.e. before the end of the 1st fundraising quarter) or later?
Update: AP's Sidoti has the Letterman announcement update and also reports that McCain's formal announcement (i.e. the "why I'm running" speech) will come in early April -- after the 1st quarter fundraising. Does this mean McCain's camp believes his 2ndQ fundraising will be stronger than his 1stQ?
Can social conservatives find someone -- anyone -- to harvest from the '08 field? Watch and learn...
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Terry McAuliffe is on the verge of losing his voice.
The prodigal son of Syracuse remains on his book tour -- check out the stellar coverage here -- and his colleagues really want him to preserve his best public asset -- that famous, booming, confident voice that has cajoled literally hundreds of millions of dollars out of the deep, hand-tailored pockets of major Democratic donors. (Listen to a poor -- but proud -- McAuliffe rasp into the microphone.)
After all, Sen. Clinton needs a big fundraising quarter.
In Syracuse, one audience member was professionally concerned about the condition of Mac's throat. "I'm a throat doctor and I want to perscribe something to you," this person said.
So - back in Washington -- one of McAuliffe's aides gave him some advice: don't yell so much. But that didn't stop McAuliffe from screaming his booming hellos. [MARC AMBINDER]
A top Bush finance hand has joined ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuiani's exploratory committee.
Willie Gaynor, most recently the finance director for Bush's '04 inaugural, will serve as senior finance adviser, helping the campaign's professional fundraising staff maintain and develop relationships with major donors.
In '03-04, Gaynor served under Mercer Reynolds as the Western Regional Finance Dir. for the Bush-Cheney campaign. He's a disciple of Bush's original finance chair, ex-Commerce sec. Don Evans and has good contacts in the business world. [MARC AMBINDER]
"It's just so early" has become a pretty common refrain in response to the fast start of the 2008 presidential campaign.
But it's really not that early at all. The starting line moved up because the finish line moved first; the front-loaded primary calendar that has most states voting on or before Feb. 5, 2008, is forcing the campaign to switch into gear now.
This cycle is different. It has two distinct "elections," and candidates who recognize that and stop worrying about the general might benefit more than they realize.
The '08 presidential race should be viewed as two distinct campaigns. Previous primary campaigns have bled seamlessly into the general, which in turn has made the election cycle feel never-ending. For instance, the 2004 campaign, which started full-bore in March 2003, was a solid 20-month continuous campaign because it was all about the general election. The Democratic primary focused on Bush and beating Bush, so the looming general election shone brightly on the party. [CHUCK TODD]
Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) was recently criticized for missing votes while playing at the Bob Hope Classic. But it looks like he could use a bit more practice, since he apparently plays with a 12 handicap.
For months, Clinton strategist James Carville has been telling anyone who would listen that he's convinced ex-VP Al Gore will run, Gore's deflections to the contrary.
Here's how we're translating Mr. Carville:
He might think Gore will actually run.
Also, the more Dems pay attention to Al Gore, the less they'll pay attention to Sen. Barack Obama.
The more there's talk of a Gore run, the more impetus there is for a Draft Gore movement, the more pressure Gore feels compelled to run, the more excited some Democrats become, about a Gore run, etc, the more they compare Gore and his resume to the rest of the field...
Do Sen. Clinton's strategists believe that Gore will actually run? Probably not -- he'd be hard to beat, as they'll acknowledge. But the more the Democratic activist base thinks about Gore, the more they'll compare the ideal -- Mr. Gore -- with the hope -- Mr. Obama, and presumably, they'll find Obama lacking in substance.
Obama's strategists dispute the entire premise of this calculation. [MARC AMBINDER]
157 of the 1000+ surveyed were African American, and the margin of error for those results is about +/- 8 percentage points. (The Post article just says it's "higher for the subsamples.")
As MysteryPollster will doubtless remind you: one poll does not a trend make, and forming holistic conclusions off sub-samples is fairly silly. Watch for trends; watch for a national poll of African Americans only; watch to see whether Clinton's campaign responds or reacts. If they don't, it's safe to say that they're not panicked by the opinions of 157 people in a telephone survey.
Note that the Post's partner -- ABC News -- didn't even mention the shift in its write up.notion.
Editor’s Choice: Some GOPers are pushing Mike Huckabee to drop his "long-shot" WH bid and challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D) for AR SEN (The Hill).
The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Everywhere one looks, the day is filled with Democratic disarray on Iraq."
The Note:'s Insufferable Aside Of The Morning: "Many political reporters are frustrated sports writers and rock critics — which is why the most over-used and annoying political cliché of the season is to describe a hot candidate as "like a rock star."
You might have missed: A new Philadelphia Daily News/Keystone poll of PA shows Giuliani defeating HRC 53-37% and Obama 53-32%. McCain also beats HRC 45-41% and Obama 43%-37% (release) Also, Strategic Vision (R) polls show HRC beating Obama 36%-21% among WI Dems, and 28%-25% among GA Dems. Meanwhile, Giuliani beats McCain 26%-22% among WI GOPers, and 28%21% among GA GOPers (releases).
Thought of the day: Conan O'Brien, on the Oscar ratings improving among 18-34 year-olds: "That statistic is misleading because viewers who were 18 at the beginning of the show were over 50 when it ended" ("Late Night").
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
In addition to what was highlighted in today's "Spotlight", the new Diageo/Hotline poll shows Pres. Bush's job approval rating at 36% among all RVs and 76% among GOPers. Moreover, Bush's handling of the war in Iraq has a 30% approval rating -- 1% higher than what he received 1/14.
Meanwhile, cong. job approval hasn't seen a significant change since the Dem takeover. 30% of voters approve in comparison to the 27% that did 11/15.
Iraq continues to dominate the dialogue, with 38% considering the war as the most important issue facing the country today. Of that %, 6% support the war and 32% oppose it.
As for a generic general WH '08 ballot, 46% of voters would select a Dem candidate. 28% would choose a GOPer. In an open-ended question asking who you'd most like to see elected pres. in '08, Hillary Clinton received 18%. Barack Obama followed with 12%. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain had 8% and 6%, respectively.
When asked to select which category best describes a candidate's age, a majority of voters chose correctly for HRC, John Edwards and Giuliani. However, 41% believe McCain is 55-64. The senator is currently 71 years of age. Obama, 45, was also mistaken by 43% for being in the 35-44 range.
Only about 20% of all voters are aware of the top tier '08ers' religion. 22% correctly labeled Giuliani as Catholic and 20% correctly labeled Romney as Mormon. However, 6% incorrectly think Obama is Muslim [KATHERINE LEHR].
Mitt Romney is taking hits for lurching to the right, but a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows his WH '08 strategy may be working.
-- Romney's name I.D. among GOPers remains less than 1/2 that of McCain or Giuliani, according to the survey, but comparable numbers of GOP voters view him as "conservative." The ex-MA gov also has the lowest "liberal" rating of the three.
-- Of course, the Right's still not sold on their top tier. Less than 1/4 of GOPers describe any of them as conservative. Other unique hurdles each one faces: More than half of GOPers say Giuliani's a moderate, but only 1/3 even know he's pro-choice ... yet. Also just 26% of GOP voters know Romney's a Mormon. And slightly more than half of all voters (60% of GOPers) think McCain is 64 or younger; He'd be 72 at his 1/09 swearing-in.
-- Meanwhile, Dems maintain a key edge in voter excitement, reflected in an open-ended question about preferred '08ers. Clinton alone pulls the same support as all 3 top GOPers combined (and Obama is the only other candidate in double-digits). Is that connected to the relatively small number of GOPers who think Giuliani/McCain/Romney are "conservative?"
Early polling of the '08 WH field indicates young adults still lean Dem, though "not by as large a margin" as they did in '06, according to a Young Voter Strategies analysis of recent Pew, Quinnipiac, RT Strategies and Lake-Tarrance/YVS polls.
Respondents ages 18-29 agree with all ages on the frontrunners -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for the Dems; and Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in the GOP.
But in general election match-ups, younger voters show their color. Giuliani beats HRC, Obama and Edwards among all respondents, but loses to all three Dems among those ages 18-29. Young respondents also prefer all three Dem frontrunners to McCain, who beats HRC and Edwards and ties with Obama among all ages.
Obama "draws stronger support from young adults than from any other age group" among Dems by 11 points, while young adults appear "slightly more supportive" of McCain than GOPers at large.
We get Obama, but is McCainSpace really that popular?
Several readers wrote in to comment on the "Hollywood Hardware Primary." Ex-Pres. Clinton has won two Grammys -- one for Best Spoken Word for his bio and one for Best Spoken Word on an Album for Children. Late Rep. Helen Gahagan (D-CA) has a star on the walk of fame. Late Sen. George Murphy (R-CA) received a special Oscar "for interpreting the motion-picture industry correctly to the country at large" in '50. And Ronald Reagan has a Golden Globe. And yes, we know Al Gore did not technically "win" an Oscar. But he certainly accepted one...
Drudge: ‘Cheney: I Heard A Boom” Also: "FLASH: More than quarter of U.S. women ages 14-59 infected with sexually transmitted human papillomavirus... Developing... "
The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Note question: What would happen if a less — or more — "seasoned" candidate said something like this?" -- they're responding to Sen. John Edwards's insinuation that he'd be open to negotiate a non-aggression treaty with Iran.
Editor’s Choice: Yepsen: Vilsack's departure could signal end for others (Des Moines Register)
Thought of the day: Stephen Colbert, on Oscar celebs using hybrid limos: "Any lowering of emissions they achieved with the limos was canceled out by the amount of smoke they blew up Al Gore's ass" ("Colbert Report").
28 percent of those surveyed in the latest Hotline/Diageo poll correctly identified ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani as pro-choice -- that includes 33 percent of Republicans.
The rest either believed he is pro-life, or they didn't know.
That sounds like the smoking gun, right?
But only 11 percent of those we surveyed incorrectly stated that Sen. John McCain is pro-choice, indicating an enhanced level of knowledge about Giuliani's social positions among primary voters.
45 percent of those we surveyed believe that Sen. Hillary Clinton is pro-choice.
At the end of the Boston Globe article about an internal Mitt Romney strategy memo written by strategist Alex Castellanos.
Like every Republican in the race, Romney faces the delicate task of how to talk about President Bush, whom the country gives low job-approval ratings . But the plan lists two ways Romney can set himself apart from Bush. The first says, simply, "Intelligence."
Castellanos, of course, is a veteran of both Bush campaigns and has remained an informal adviser to the White House.
Not taking anything away from John Solomon and Matthew Mosk's article -- clearly, Sen. Clinton made a mistake -- but was this really necessary?
Private family foundations vary in amounts they give away each year. The Clintons have given away a quarter of their money. The family foundation of record producer David Geffen, by comparison, has been giving away most of what it takes in -- roughly $1 million a year -- leaving it with a balance of $400,000 at the end of 2005.
In the aftermath of Al Gore's Oscar, pundits tried to determine if they had a winner:
Politico's Allen: "If Senator Clinton and Senator Obama eat each other up, if for some reason there's a vacancy, a vacuum, an opening when it comes to the fall, voters are sick of the fantastic choices that they have on either side, I can definitely imagine the vice president making this move" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 2/26).
Pat Buchanan: "Obama has got to fade for Gore to move. He's got to be knocked down. And if he is knocked down, Gore should drive right in there, because then I think he could win" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 2/26).
Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts: "I think there's two people ... that you ought to watch over the next two or three months, Newt Gingrich on the Republican side, Al Gore on the Democrat side. Now, you can't run a covert campaign. So, you need to be active in some way. We don't see any signs of Al Gore being active. However, I think the key is, if somebody stumbles on the Democrat side ... I think he may get in. I think it's a real possibility. The same thing -- John McCain on the Republican side, you see John stumbles, I think Newt probably takes a serious look at it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/26).
MSNBC's Carlson: "In some sense, the presidency almost seems too small for Al Gore at this point" ("Tucker," 2/26).
THE '08ers GET THEIR TV TIME IN
Bill Richardson played "Hardball" last night, where most of the discussion focused on the war on terror:
Asked if he likes "to go head-to-head with the tough guys," Richardson: "Yes, I do. And President Clinton used to send me to talk to Sudan, North Korea. We talked to Cuba. And we had success" (MSNBC, 2/26).
Ron Paul was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":
On his vote against the war in Iraq: "I'm a stickler for the Constitution. I was annoyed because they wouldn't declare war. They thought it was important to go to war. The people's representatives should declare war, and they should fight it and get it over with and win. So I didn't like the way they went, and I didn't think we were ever threatened by Iraq" (CNN, 2/26).
GOTTA HAVE FAITH
Laura Bush was on "LKL."
Asked if Romney's faith should be an issue: "I don't think so. I mean I think that he is a very outstanding and a wonderful man with great character and a lot of great credentials. And so I think people's faith in the United States is their, certainly, you know, what it is. Each person has the right to choose whatever faith they want and it's a very important part of our country."
ONE JUROR OUT BUT LIBBY CASE GOES FORWARD
FNC's Angle: "The jury went right back to work in the Scooter Libby trial, after losing one of its members. The judge told both sides that one juror acknowledged that she might have been tainted over the weekend, leading some to conclude it was another juror who first raised the matter" ("Special Report," 2/26).
MSNBC's Shuster: "They can render a verdict with just 11. They just cannot go down to 10. And the fear that everybody has now is that as this goes along, if the jury is going to continue deliberating for several more days before reaching their verdict, if they were to lose another juror, then they would have to go back to one of the two alternates who have been sent home and simply been instructed, don't watch any sort of media coverage" ("Hardball," 2/26).
CNN's Todd: "It's unclear what kind of information the juror, who's now an arts researcher, was exposed to, but she has gone her own way before in this case" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/26).[EMILY GOODIN]
Gov. Rod Blagojevich loves his proclamating. Blagojevich, who dedicated an entire week to the Chicago Bears after they lost the Super Bowl, has proclaimed 2/26 “Jennifer Hudson Day” in IL “in recognition of the Chicago native’s Oscar win for Best Actress in a Supporting Role” in “Dreamgirls.”
Blagojevich recognizes Hudson for her childhood in Chicago, where she displayed “her music and theatrical skills... in dozens of talent shows and musical productions.” In the 358-word proclamation, Blagojevich cites Hudson’s start “as a vocalist on the Disney Wonder Cruise Ship” and her “first big break” on “American Idol,” and her 2/25 Oscar win as justification for her “day.”
Rudy Giuliani delivered the keynote remarks to the Hoover Institution's Overseers’ Luncheon at the Willard InterContinental in DC today. Although there were no rah-rah moments for the 9/11 hero, the crowd was instead treated to Giuliani as the champion of free market enterprise -- the tax-cutting, welfare-reducing, budget-balancing descendant of Ronald Reagan.
Giuliani was introduced by his camp's new dir. of policy/'02 CA GOV nominee Bill Simon, who called him "a friend, a mentor, a former boss, and a fellow Ronald Reagan Republican." And although Simon noted that he "comforted us, he inspired us on one of the darkest days in American history," Giuliani strayed from the ever-popular 9/11 storytelling session, and opted to focus his address on how the expansion of "freedom" creates the best policies in taxation, school reform, entitlement reform, and health care reform.
In each area, Giuliani consistently pressed the case that GOP policies will be successful so long as GOPers stick to the core belief that "free market principles are really the salvation." Giuliani, on the GOP: "We're not always right, we're not always on our game. ... [But] we have to go back to our core principles and build on them." And what are those core GOP principles? "Freedom. ... When we've been doing well, we've expanded people's freedom a little bit more," Giuliani said, citing a history of GOPers beginning with Abraham Lincoln, and including "our greatest and most effective presidents," Theodore Roosevelt and, of course, Reagan.
Never delving into specific policy proposals, Giuliani kept his talk to the general sweeping idea of promoting free market policy. Giuliani said that the health care system is "fractured" and "in trouble," but can only be fixed with "free market solutions, competitive solutions." Giuliani: "We work best as a party ... and it helps our country the most when we empower people." On the issue of school choice, for example, Giuliani went back to his experience in New York, and argued: "I don't know how you say no to that. ... I don't know why it's not one of the great civil rights issues of our time." Who do we trust with the education of children, he argued, the board of education bureaucrat or the parent?
Meanwhile, in the Q&A session, Giuliani was first asked about his foreign policy experience, to which he quipped to laughter: "What makes you think that the mayor of New York City doesn't need a foreign policy?" Admitting that the presidency is "primarily a foreign policy role," Giuliani called foreign policy "an area of great interest to me," and one that he has developed through 91 or 92 trips abroad, as well as through international work with his firm. Giuliani: "It's something I know as well as anyone who's running. ... I know the world."
When speaking about the war on terror -- or rather, as he has renamed it, "the war of the terrorists against us" -- Giuliani argued that we should be comparing the war not to America's struggle in World War II, but to the Cold War. In the Q&A session, Giuliani also took the opportunity to condemn the congressional non-binding resolutions as "a way to be safe. It was a way to not make a tough choice."
Although there were no standing ovations and a mere one or two applause interruptions, the audience seemed quietly receptive to Giuliani’s message. But were they convinced? As one audience member said: "I may be in love, we'll see.” [MAURA O'BRIEN]
The Hillary Clinton camp is rolling out the big names of the Clinton Administration in its “grassroots” effort to raise $1M in a week.
The “One Week One Million” campaign launched last week with high profile e-mail (and accompanying picture that still has us scratching our heads) from “Bill Clinton.”
(As of 9 am, they had raised $619,896.)
Today, Clinton’s Sec/State Madeleine Albright sends out an e-mail, sharing her memories of HRC fighting “for women’s rights at home and abroad,” as she stood “side-by-side” with her as the “first woman secretary of state of this country.”
“Albright”: “And what a remarkable woman we're putting forward into this historic moment: strong, smart, experienced, and deeply committed to the values you and I share. The very first day of her presidency, Hillary will transform America's role in the international community because of the deep admiration she has long enjoyed on the world stage. She will restore the respect that is the foundation of our alliances and the source of our strength.”
Anyone else find it interesting that HRC is using bigwigs like Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright to push a Dean-style grassroots online fundraising campaign? “Bill” wrote last week that the point was to “demonstrate the range and breadth of Hillary's support by raising one million dollars in grassroots donations in a week's time.” Bill and Sec. Albright are kind of mainstream, no?
Mitt Romney could barely contain his glee 2/24 in NH while discussing '08 Dem discord. "It's great, isn't it?" he chortled. But if we learned anything this weekend, it's that discord remains a bipartisan commodity.
-- Let's start on the right, where the Dobson-Falwell-Norquist group that met recently in FL was so distraught that they begged SC's Sanford to run. Sanford declined, according to the NYT, but the episode reinforced fears among top '08 GOPers that the road to the WH is paved with pitfalls. If none of the big 3 break out, look for talk of Newt, Sanford, Jeb and Haley in the fall. There's a vacuum; It's why Romney decided on the conversion approach and why Rudy's as viable as he appears.
-- The Left's drama played out on the left coast as Hollywood (diCaprio, DeGeneres et al) virtually begged Al Gore to run. Sure they raised money with Barack and Hillary. But doubts remain. Besides, only an Oscar winner can truly be one of them. (Note how Gore didn't go totally native in his carefully constructed quotes.)
-- Their doubts are distinct. But from FL to L.A., it's clear this incomplete script is poised for a few more plot twists
Since Ronald Reagan never won an Oscar, that makes Al Gore the first. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both won Grammys for "Best Spoken Word" for their books (her in '97, him in '06). Rudy Giuliani never won a Grammy but in '98, when he was NYC mayor, he said he didn't care if the ceremony moved back to L.A. (It did). And actor James Woods was nominated for an Emmy after playing Giuliani in "Rudy: The Rudy Giuliani Story." Note that our listing doesn't count ex-Carmel Mayor/multiple Oscar winner Clint Eastwood. Who are we missing? E-mail us.
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
A few weeks ago, On the Download reported on the sorry state of official Congressional Web sites, including citing an upcoming report from the Congressional Management Foundation on that topic. The non-profit group issued a report card today evaluating 615 taxpayer-funded Web sites from the 109th Congress, including those hosted by members, committees and leadership.
The best of the lot were awarded with Gold, Silver, and Bronze Mouse Awards, although CMF called the overall state of Congressional Web sites “disappointing” with about 39 percent of Web sites receiving a substandard or failing grade. Out of all of the studied Web sites, 18 received a Gold award, 27 received Silver and 40 received a Bronze rating. Evaluations were based on what the committee called the pillars of a good Congressional Web site: Audience, Content, Usability, Interactivity and Innovation.
You can read the full report here (www.cmfweb.org.), but here are a few notable findings:
*Only Rep. Mike Honda, D-Calif., Senator Jeff Bingaman, D-NM, and Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., have received an award each of the three times the report has been released in 2002, 2003 and 2006.
*Republican Web sites scored higher than Democratic ones, with 69 percent of GOP sites scoring at least a “C” grade compared to just 56 percent of their Democratic counterparts.
*The report notes that there’s a relationship between the Web site grade and this year’s election margins. Members who received less than 50 percent of the vote in 2006 had the highest percentage of Web sites with an “F” score.
Drum roll please… The following House and Senate members received a gold award for their Web site: Reps. Brian Baird, D-Wash., Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., Marion Berry, D-Ark., Earl Blumenauer D-Ore., Mike Honda D-Calif., John B. Larson, D-Conn., John Linder, R-Ga., Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., Jeff Miller R-Fla., Dennis Moore, D-Kan., Charlie Norwood, R-Ga., and Sens. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., and Rick Santorum R-Pa. CMF declined to release a list of the Web sites that received failing grades [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
If Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's poll numbers don't rise over the next few months, don't worry, writes Alex Gage, a senior Romney strategist: Romney is "well positioned" -- more than most -- to win the nomination over the long haul.
Gage made this innocuous and fairly difficult-to-deny point in an expectations-lowering memo the campaign sent to a few hundred members of the "Romney for President Leadership." We've obtained the memo from a friendly member of said Leadership Team.
Gage does not disclose any of the campaign's internal polling. Instead, he uses public polls and an historical assessment of small state governors to make the point that Romney is ahead of, say, where Bill Clinton was at the equivalent point in 1991.
Romney, writes Gage, is viewed favorably by more than 80 percent of Republicans who know him. He's performing about his national average in the key early states. And besides -- only a quarter of the electorate is paying attention.
"Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don't immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient." Remember that "our ads are only airing in a few states," and history shows that "nationwide polling will continue to reflect name recognition until voters start to pay attention to the election."
Well -- any member of the media expecting Romney's poll numbers to jump nationally after running ads in five states should turn in the membership card. But all this provokes the question: if the television ads won't have any effect on Romney's poll ratings in the five states, why are they being run at all?
We're not going to do this every week... but just for fun..
1) Hollywood mogul David Geffen, who caused controversy with disparaging remarks about Hillary and Bill Clinton, has previously made headlines for:
A. Being the man behind Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young.
B. A run-in with the California Coastal Commission over public access to the beach at his Malibu compound.
C. Selling the world’s most expensive work of art, Jackson Pollock ’s No. 5, 1948 .
D. A $2-billion bid to buy the Los Angeles Times.
E. All of the above.
2) Which of the following apologies were not uttered by a presidential candidate (or their spouse) this week?
A. “It is not at all what I intended to say, and I would absolutely apologize if any [military families] felt that in some ways it had diminished the enormous courage and sacrifice that they’d shown.”
B. “The truth is, a lot of people in the African-American community were hurt by what I said. I really feel lousy about it. I got involved in politics because of civil rights.”
C. “I’m one who voted for it. I regret that. I wish I could have the vote back. I made a mistake.”
D. “I’m so sorry my husband isn't here. I can promise you that he will be back here. Do expect us to come back to South Carolina with our family.”
E. “[W]hen I heard the interview, when I heard myself, it sounded bad. ‘Them being in another country and they shouldn't be in America.’ That should have never come out. I was like, ‘Damn, I messed that up. Damn, I don't believe that came out my mouth. Damn, that’s not me.”
3) A presidential candidate this week identified _________ as a place “where mothers don’t tell their children someday they can grow up to be president of the United States.”
A. Austria
B. Arizona
C. Chicago public schools
D. Wal-Mart
E. Seneca, South Carolina
4) Which of the following was not said by a Democratic presidential hopeful at the Nevada forum:
A. “How much more chaos could there be in Baghdad than exists today?”
B. “There are two Americas. One America that does the work, another that reaps the reward.”
C. “I don’t think it is a big deal if I get elected president.”
D. “The worst thing we can do is tear each other down.”
E. “I’ve got a $250 suit, you’ve probably got a $2,000 suit.”
5) Hillary Clinton's swing through California this week included a meeting with which group of potential supporters?
A. The Motion Picture Association of America
B. Ballona Valley Preservation League members
C. Latino small business owners
D. Persian Jews
E. The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants [MARISA KATZ]
Sen. John McCain and Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani informed WMUR-TV in New Hampshire today that they will not participate in the April 4 debate -- the event labeled by CNN and WMUR as the "First in the nation" GOP debate.
Not anymore.
McCain will be in the Middle East and Giuliani cited unspecified scheduling conflicts, a person with direct knowledge of the debate refusals said.
CNN's Wolf Blitzer and WMUR's Scott Spradling are the hosts.
Both McCain and Giuliani accepted Nancy Reagan's invitation to participate in the 5/3 debate scheduled for the Reagan Library. [MARC AMBINDER]
Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.
DOUBLE JEOPARDY
Once upon a time, AEI's Norm Orenstein used to tell congressmen who literally lived in their offices for days at a time that they were "making a big mistake" and "jeopardizing their marriages." In an age where several congressman don't even see their office five days a week, is there something else they jeopardizing?
FORMING FRIENDSHIPS -- DC-STYLE
If Washington is a city in which "no one takes friendship personally," as AEI's Michael Novak writes, does this mean opinions about politicos turn just as easily? Or are we, as Washingtonians, such a breed that we don't trust anyone except those we unconditionally love? Novak, focusing on how DC dwellers view the presidency via the press, examines the possibilities and concludes "perceptions are changeable."
BATTLE OF THE BANDS
Although events at The Brookings Institution focused this week on policy, The Brookings Institution announced it will co-sponsor a serious of talks on the presidential race with ABC News. Will the Brookings endeavor mirror the Decision '08 series recently launched by The Center For Strategic And International Studies? As of now, no. The plan? Simply to provide a forum for scholars to debate the and rank '08 hopefuls. Yet the name, "Opportunity '08" has a familiar ring to it1
WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT: TALENT OR TRAINING?
If the war in Iraq "will last for years," as Heritage Foundation's James Talent believes, then what should Congress call for when it comes to our military -- talent or training? Talented troops always help, but boots are sometimes better than brains -- especially amidst a cold climate. Talent, playing historian and storyteller, makes a case he suggests Democrats should consider before denouncing any nay-sayers.
REAGAN REVISITED
When it comes to the '08 presidential race, does a candidate's personality matter more than politics? AEI's Steven Hayward coupled up with Cato Institute's John Patrick Diggins to address a new book about Ronald Reagan, which touches on this issue. If any '08 hopeful can deliver Reagan's charisma in a debate, Hayward seems to think America's negotiating opportunities abroad could be "limitless."
Larry McCarthy is pres. of McCarthy Marcus Hennings, a GOP firm that does political and issue advertising, plus corporate video production. McCarthy served as a press sec. for Sens. Jacob Javits (R-NY) and John Heinz (R-PA), and the NRSC. While working for Roger Ailes, he won the '85 nat'l Emmy for Best Writing in a Documentary. And today, McCarthy is our "Consultant Candid."
What is your proudest moment professionally?
Every ad guy is seeking the Holy Grail of The Perfect Spot. My last Perfect Spot was "Ashley's Story" for Progress for America Voter Fund in 04... the perfect combination of a touching, human story that drove a strong message, raised millions of dollars on its own merits, and, as many Democrats noted, had a decisive impact.
If you could be in any other line of work, what would it be?
I want to finally become my Doppelganger, Steven Spielberg, and direct "Indiana Jones IV."
Where is your happy place?
Watching our daughters play the sport du season, watching our Bernese Mountain Dogs endlessly, optimistically, and futilely chase squirrels, and re-living once again Steve McQueen's motorcycle jumps over the Nazis' barbed wire fence in "The Great Escape."
He's not.. Yet.
BTW: check out the masterful use of regional dialect:
Dem strategist Chris Lehane, "who has not endorsed a candidate," on Obama's response: "It fundamentally undermined their long-term message" (Nagourney, New York Times, 2/23).
More Lehane: "If you're running as a transformative candidate, you have to be careful not to degrade the brand you're offering. Taking a whack at Bill Clinton with Democratic primary voters is like taking a whack at Derek Jeter when you're trying to appeal to Yankee fans" (DeFrank, New York Daily News, 2/23). Still more Lehane: B. Clinton "is as popular with Democratic primary voters as Cal Ripken is with Baltimore Orioles fans" (West, Baltimore Sun, 2/23).
And finally, from Lehane, "the White House spokesman for Bill Clinton": "I think history is pretty clear that those folks who are loyal to the Clintons find the loyalty is really reciprocated -- and that is one of the reasons why so many people have stuck wtih them for so long" (Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle, 2/23).
What seems to be mattering most in the early stages of WH'08 is "a different sort of standard," writes Paul Starobin in this week's National Journal. "It's the 'authenticity' standard, the winner being the most appealingly 'authentic' -- as in real, not fake or false -- person in the race. The quotation marks are advisable because authenticity is a deceptively difficult concept to define, especially in the political arena. Authenticity may be about manipulated perceptions of 'the real McCoy' as much as it is about the actual existence of such a figure. No matter. For voters, authenticity has become a Holy Grail." Read more ...
Want proof that Sen. Barack Obama's running at least a little bit of a traditional campaign? At the first hint of trouble, he throws the staff under the bus. (Come to think of it, John Kerry did the same thing -- unfairly, in the eyes of many -- to Robert Gibbs, too).
Said Obama:
“I told my staff that I don’t want us to be a party to these kinds of distractions because I want to make sure that we’re spending time talking about issues,” Mr. Obama said. “My preference going forward is that we have to be careful not to slip into playing the game as it customarily is played.”
So -- we're trying to figure out the timeline here -- did he not speak to his staff at all until 5pm CST yesterday? When he landed in Des Moines in the late afternoon yesterday, he told reporters: " I just heard about this as I got off the plane." Did the roadshow not brief him appropriately?
He seems to have clearly told his staff to respond politely... are we reading the New York Times story correctly? -- all the while claiming he was not terribly aware of the situation itself.
BTW I: If one is interested in staying above the fray, is it too late to disavow Geffen's comments?
BTW II: If comity is the order of the day, will Obama -- has Obama -- explictly asked his staff and his top fundraisers to (a) not personally criticize his opponents in private and (b) stop any campaign oppo research efforts against Democrats? Where does Obama believe the line is between legitimate disagreements and personal attacks?
Now that ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) put the kibosh on his presidential race, here are some of the free agents he's leaving behind. Iowa Democrats: no longer can you hide behind Gov. Vilsack as a reason for not taking Sen. Hillary Clinton's phone call. No more excuses.
Sen. Tom Harkin -- we bet he'll remain neutral. And why not? He's up in '08 anyway.
Teresa Vilmain -- a legendary political operative and field organizer who almost never talks to the press and is known as a miracle worker inside the party. If she doesn't join Clinton's campaign, be very surprised.
Jerry Crawford -- Vilsack's close friend, a top Des Moines lawyer, Kerry's former Iowa chair, a former DGA finance chair, one of the Democratic Party's top fundraisers. He's blessed with a political mind and a massive rolodex.
Jeff Link: a former Harkin re-election mgr, former Gore state director, former ACT state director and state party strategist, he was "senior communications adviser" to the Vilsack campaign. Link has close ties with senior members of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign.
Link's partner in consulting is Matt Paul, a former dep. chief of staff for Tom Vilsack, mgr for Mike Blouin, and dep. state director for Hillary Clinton.
Travis Brock -- a young veteran of state and national campaigns in Iowa.
Other names: Vilsack's Iowa state director Dusky Terry... campaign manager Craig Varoga.... and communications director Josh Earnest.
The Campaign to Defend the Constitution, which calls itself "an online grassroots movement" to preserve a strict separation between church and state (or between conservative Christians and politics), blast e-mailed reporters last night a blog post entitled "John McCain Visits The Creationists."
We're making an assumption, here, but it's probably fair to say that most of the nation's elite political reporters are comfortable with the theory of evolution. The DefCon folks (they call themselves that) know their audience.
Still, their post strikes us as a little misleading.
Yes, McCain will be the featured speaker at a luncheon in Seattle tomorrow co-sponsored by the Discovery Institute, which is, course, the most visible proponent of "intelligent design" creationism in the country.
The forum itself is not nearly so controversial; he'll deliver the speech at the Seattle World Affairs Council -- a standard McCain appraisal of the state of the world. And the Institute is one of ten co-sponsors.
The Discovery Institute may object to their organization's raison d'etre being reduced to their advocacy of "intelligent design," but click here and point out where we're wrong.
That's not to say that McCain has no sympathy for their agenda. He told the Arizona Star last year that "all points of view" about human origins should be taught in public schools.
"I think that there has to be all points of view presented but they'd got to be fairly presented. To say that we can only choose one line of thinking... one belief... on how people and the world was created... there's nothing wrong with teaching different schools of thought."
But does it belong in science class? "There's enough scientists that believe that it does. This is something that I think all points of view should be presented."
Depending on how the questions are asked, a sturdy majority of Americans say they don't believe that the theory of evolution is true. A solid majority of Americans -- and this drives virtually all scientists, many modernists and all atheists crazy -- believe in some form of intelligent design. McCain is solidly in the American mainstream. [MARC AMBINDER]
LOS ANGELES – Sen. Hillary Clinton visited deep pocket Dem donors here Thursday in private gatherings that set the stage for a March 24th L.A. fundraiser expected to surpass the $1.3 million scooped up in earlier this week by Sen. Barack Obama.
With all her Thursday events private, HRC’s shuttle through rainy L.A. began with a breakfast put on by supermarket mogul Ron Burkle, then brunch with more donors hosted by cartoon tycoon Haim Saban and later a cocktail reception put on by investor Sim Farar. Burkle is hosting Clinton’s widely anticipated March 24th fundraiser here; one California Dem consultant described the NY senator’s Thursday appearances as akin to, “pre-sales meetings in a sense, for the big fundraiser,” while predicting that this week’s Clinton/Obama spat over Dreamworks mogul David Geffen’s comments will die down - “This was a first scuffle. Fortunately the Academy Awards (on Sunday night) will stop this momentum.”
Sandwiched in between the flesh-pressing with L.A.’s major Clinton donors was HRC’s visit with former Clinton White House deputy assistant John Emerson, plus an afternoon meet-and-greet with agents and other Hollywood suits at Creative Artists Agency and finally a Beverly Hills dinner with Iranian-American donors. Not stopping to speak to reporters, Clinton was seen being whisked into the CAA reception area, with Daily Variety quoting an attendee of that 90-minute gathering saying that Clinton, “was incredibly well-received.”
HRC spends Friday in Northern California including a noon fundraiser in San Francisco. Along with Obama’s high-profile $1.3 million Beverly Hills fundraiser earlier this week, Clinton’s other `08 rivals also have been seeking California limelight and dollars; former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack flew west last week to chat with Jay Leno on The Tonight Show set, and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) comes to L.A. this weekend to hold three fundraisers. [DAVID FINNIGAN]
Pundits still liked to talk about the Clinton/Obama battle, but with actual news to report on Anna Nicole Smith, cable TV went wild with coverage. But here's an update on another important trial:
CNN's Todd, on the Scooter Libby jury: "They have not asked any questions of the judge in a little more than 11 hours of deliberations. What they have asked for are some Post-it notes, some masking tape, a flip chart, and some pictures of witnesses, indicating that they might be trying to set up some kind of a timeline or a chart of who Scooter Libby talked to and when" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/22).
MSNBC's Shuster: "They went seven hours today and, of course, did not return a verdict. They will come back tomorrow -- 11-and-a-half hours, they have been deliberating Scooter Libby's fate so far" ("Hardball," 2/22).
A FAMILIAR FACE RETURNS TO TV
Tom Daschle, on why he endorsed Barack Obama: "I remember, back in the '60s, when I was just beginning to be interested in politics and government, how inspired I was by certain leaders at the time, the Kennedys and Martin Luther King. I think Barack has some of that same magical ability to communicate, to connect, to unify, to inspire. And that's what I see in him."
On Sen. Tim Johnson's health: "He is doing so well. I'm real encouraged. He is actually doing some work from his room. He's communicating. He looks very healthy. And he has got every reason to believe that he will be back in the saddle, on the job, some time in the next several months" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/22).
NO COWARDLY LION HERE
And Obama hosted "Crucibles of Courage" on the Biography Channel last night.
Obama, in his intro: "I'm Sen. Barack Obama. Today we reflect on the greatest moments in the lives of a handful of trail blazers -- whether through their own determination or by circumstance one choice, one risk, one decision that they made changed their country and the world."
He then introduced profiles of Thurgood Marshall, Marian Anderson, Jesse Owens, Shirley Chisholm, and Muhammad Ali (Biography Channel, 2/22). [EMILY GOODIN]
An unqualified victory for Sen. Barack Obama's legal team, although the matter awaits a vote by the commissioners themselves.
The draft proposes that Senator Obama may solicit and receive contributions for the 2008 general election without waiving his eligibility to receive public funds for the general election, under the conditions described in the request, that is:
Contributions designated for the general election will be kept in a separate escrow account;
Only the campaign treasurer and chief operating officer will have access to this account; and
The funds in this account will not be used for any purpose.
Under the draft proposal, if Senator Obama wins the Democratic nomination and decides to receive public funding for the general election, then he must refund all general election contributions within 60 days of certifying his eligibility for public funds.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Hours after her campaign's contretemps with mogul David Geffen produced a string of stories questioning Hollywood's loyalty to the Clintons, Sen. Clinton flew to Los Angeles for several major fundraisers.
First, we hear that Madonna. Magic Johnson and Warren Beatty joined Clinton for a morning kibbitz at the home of billionaire Ron Burkle. A Clinton spokesman said he had no information about their attendence.
Other events on HRC's schedule today include receptions hosted by Sim Farrar and longtime Clinton supporter/entertainment mogul Haim Saban. (Hat tip, Lynn Sweet). [MARC AMBINDER]
An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.
Organization: The National Rifle Association (NRA)
According to NRA Public Affairs Dir. Andrew Arulanandam, the NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) typically endorses candidates after the nat'l conventions. Approaching '08, the NRA-PVF will survey all WH '08ers (regardless of party affiliation) on issues of interest to the association.
After taking the answers of the party nominees into consideration, as well as their voting records and public statements, the NRA-PVF determines whether or not to endorse a candidate. Note: The NRA has not given its endorsement in every recent WH presidential contest (as in '92 and '96) [AMY DUDLEY]
Now that Hillary's making her WH bid, will the country ever see Bill Clinton the same way? Can HRC run on Bill's record without scratching it? Hotline's John Mercurio takes a look through this week's PolitiScope.
The WH Bulletin (subscription required) reported this morning on growing efforts to draft Fred Thompson, the Law and Order actor, former Senator, and current Paul Harvey replacement on ABC Radio. The report notes slyly that Thompson has yet to endorse any '08 candidate and hasn't disclaimed an interest in the '08 race.
Thompson, the former Tennessee Republican senator who’s now a Law & Order prosecutor and regular replacement for radio host Paul Harvey, is being urged by supporters to consider entering the presidential race, according to associates. “The draft Fred movement is growing,” says one ally. They say that Thompson is flattered by the suggestions, but it is unclear if he is turning away their appeals. The effort is growing among conservative blogs, where several boards are pushing the folksy straight-talker to get in.
Well, for one thing, Mr. Thompson's ABC News contract probably prohibits him from saying anything in public about ongoing political campaigns. Also, while Thompson is conservative and has a record to back it up, he's not and never has been a member of the conservative intellectual elite. He's about as right-leaning as the old Mitt Romney + Mike Huckabee divided by two.
Most importantly, Sen. John McCain is one of Thompson's best friends. They talk regularly. A source close to Thompson said that Thompson will not run for president, period.
NC is the only southern state which holds its GOV elections during presidential election years. This would presumably be a boost for most GOP GOV nominees, yet NC hasn't elected one since '88, while every other southern state has had a GOP governor at some point over the past 6 years. (And no, WV is not a southern state, since it was specifically created to NOT be part of the South.)
Harvey Kornberg's Quorum Report, a member of the Hotline Political Network, reports that the TX GOP this a.m. announced a "major new event" for the '08 cycle -- a statewide straw poll on 8/31 in Ft. Worth.
The party expects at least 15K GOPers to participate.
The other major straw polls:
The biggie in Ames, IA on 8/11.
And on or about 9/24, the MI GOP will hold a straw poll on Mackinac Island.
Rudy Giuliani has picked up the edorsement of Rep. Charlie Dent (PA). According to Giuliani's team, Dent plans "to enlist other" PA GOPers to follow suit.
Dent, explaining his support: "Giuliani successfully led New York City and became known as 'America’s Mayor' because of his dynamic approach to tackling the challenges facing America’s largest city... It takes a determined fiscal leader to make the kind of transformation he achieved as Mayor of New York – and his record speaks for itself." (Hotline reporting)
Anybody else still scratching their head over the Clinton decision to go after Obama over the loss of Hollywood donor David Geffen? Forget what some reporters are reading in to the motivation behind Howard Wolfson's decision (that is baiting Obama over his "above it all" rhetoric). The bottom line: the media has the two leading Democrats fighting over who has more support in Hollywood. Could Karl Rove or any other major Republican strategist ask for a better outcome? But back to the Clinton decision for a minute. A few observations:
-- The Clintons seem hypersensitive about her past.
-- The reaction to the comment was way out of proportion to the comment itself.
-- Is it that hard to find a major Clinton donor who hasn't bashed Obama off the record?
-- This isn't how you avoid being Swiftboated. You can't respond to supposed "Swift Boat" attacks that you have no way of disproving factually.
-- Hollywood liberal and Mo Dowd. That's exactly the frame Clinton needs to be identified with?
-- Vilsack and Richardson must really believe that only Clinton will consider them for the VP slot since both took the opportunity to help her and use Clinton talking points to hit Obama.
As for whether Obama should have responded or not. It's debatable. Yesterday probably wasn't a good day for Clinton and after Obama responded and it became Clinton v. Obama, it turned into a bad day for the Democrats who some had thought were making progress at moving beyond the "Hollywood" stereotype. [CHUCK TODD/MARC AMBINDER]
When cable news wasn't talking about Britney Spears or Anna Nicole Smith, they were dissecting the dustup between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Tony Blair's decision to withdrawal British troops from Iraq:
James Carville, on David Geffen: "A Hollywood guy like that, you try to get him to open his wallet and shut his mouth, because, inevitably, he gets around Maureen Dowd, he's going to make a fool of himself."
Carville, on Geffen saying he's tired of hearing him on TV: "I will tell you what, Mr. Geffen. You can have my TV time. I will take your money" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/21).
HRC comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "Our expectation was that Senator Obama, who was running a campaign premised on changing our politics, who has decried the politics of slash and burn, would denounce the comments, say that these comments don't represent his thinking or his campaign. We were, frankly, surprised that he didn't do that. It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them."
More: "It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them and whether or not the campaign put Mr. Geffen up to this" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).
Variety's Johnson, on the L.A. scene: "I detect a little bit of the people who are for Barack tend to be on the left side in Hollywood. And I find a lot of the most passionate Barack Obama supporters always mention the war. They mention the fact that he's been against the war from the start. Hillary's people are the traditional Democrats who have been behind her for quite a long time" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).
MOVING OUT
CNN's Oakley: "Blair, a prime minister keen to focus on other aspects of his political legacy, like Northern Ireland and the Middle East peace process, feels he's taken a symbolic step forward with the announcement of British troop reductions. But other politicians are suspicious that his move owes as much to forthcoming rounds of elections in Britain as it does to the strategic situation on the ground in Iraq" ("Situation Room," 2/21).
FNC's Hume: "Blair insisted a strong contingent of British troops would remain in Iraq until at least 2008, and that his forces had no intention of backing down" ("Special Report," 2/21).
AL GOV 2014
Ex-BB player Charles Barkley was in the "Situation Room" and said he wants to go into politics:
Barkley: "I want to be a politician. I think I understand how the system works. I think a lot of politicians are corrupt. And it's about time we put some people in there who are going to look out for the majority of the people instead of the rich people."
More: "I just bought a house before the end of the year in Alabama. You have to live there for seven years. So hopefully in 2014, I can run for governor of Alabama."
On his political affiliation: "I'm an Independent. I think the Republicans are terrible and the Democrats are not much better. So I'm really an Independent. ... I said one time I was rich like a Republican. And I still am, I might add. But I think the Republicans have took the country in a terrible situation. And let's get one thing straight about the last elections. The Democrats did not win. They won because the other team wasn't any good."
On WH '08: "I'm really pulling for Barack Obama, John Edwards and Senator Clinton. I think all three of these are great candidates. I'm really pulling for Barack because I consider him a casual friend of mine. I supported John Edwards last time. I think it would be great if a woman became president of the United States."
On being told he has to pick one: "I'm going with Senator Barack Obama" (CNN, 2/21). [EMILY GOODIN]
The Hotline hears that Rep. Chip Pickering (R-MS) will serve as MS Chair, Southern Co-Chair, and member of the U.S. House Whip Team for Sen. John McCain.
You might not recognize Pickering's name, but you'll know his face -- he had an unwitting cameo in Borat. A very conservative House member from MS, some believe Pickering is being groomed as Sen. Trent Lott's successor. (Pickering began his political career by working for Lott.) Pickering is the second successful Mississippi Chip Pickering. In '02, Charles W. Pickering Sr.'s nomination to the 5th circuit court of appeals was blocked by Democrats. Pickering retired, joined a swanky law-and-lobby firm, and wrote a polemical, popular book about how liberals had hijacked the federal judiciary.
Given McCain's dalliance with -- heck, his stewardship of -- the Gang of 14, the younger Pickering may be called upon to sooth the nerves of conservatives who care about judicial nomination. Both Pickerings are active in the Southern Baptist Church in MS; the elder Pickering was president of the church's MS branch.
With the Dem WH '08ers (minus Barack Obama, of course) busy at the AFSCME candidate forum in Carson City, NV, this afternoon, the RNC marked the occasion by sending out a series of press releases so supporters can "meet" the Dem field. Each candidate got an individual release presenting several pages of unflattering quotes about him or her --- plus a particularly snappy, one-line summary:
Meet Joe Biden, "An Undisciplined, Self-Described Northeast Liberal, In Love With The Sound Of His Own Voice."
There's Hillary Rodham Clinton, "A Calculating, Divisive, Lifelong Liberal With Political Baggage."
Don't forget Chris Dodd, "A New England Liberal, Past His Prime, On An Unrealistic Vanity Run For The White House."
Re-introduce yourself to John Edwards, "A Hypocritical, Inexperienced Liberal With A New Negative Attitude."
There's no escape for Obama, "An Inexperienced, Insulated, Arrogant, Unabashed Liberal."
Check out Bill Richardson, "A Self-Promoting, Washington Insider With A Controversial Record."
And, last but certainly not least, get to know Tom Vilsack, "A Tax-Hiking, Mismanaging, 'Blip' Candidate With No Foreign Policy Experience."
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
LOS ANGELES - Sen. Barack Obama picked up about $1.3 million in Hollywood money for his ’08 campaign Tuesday night at a posh Beverly Hills fundraiser which followed a large afternoon rally in one of L.A.’s poorest neighborhoods.
“We’re all shopping,” said former Mad About You sitcom star Paul Reiser in describing celebrities interested in but not totally committed to the Illinois Dem instead of Hollywood’s long-established ‘08 favorite Sen. Hillary Clinton.
At least 300 actors, filmmakers and studio executives paid $2,300 per ticket (the maximum allowed federal campaign donation) to attend the Beverly Hilton dinner organized for Obama by Dreamworks SKG studio moguls Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen. It was Katzenberg who announced the $1.3 million figure, according to a pool report of the dinner by San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Carla Marinucci. (Event organizers barred all other news media.)
“Don’t sell yourselves short,’’ Obama said in his 25-minute speech, per the pool report. “You are the storytellers of our age.” But after a humorous introduction from his wife Michelle, Obama added that in his change-is-in-the-air campaign, “the starring roles don’t go to me. They go to the people of America.’’
Spielberg called Obama, “great,” and actress Jennifer Anniston called him, “lovely,” the pool report said. Attending too were singer Jackson Browne, actor Ben Stiller, filmmaker Ron Howard and actors Morgan Freeman, Eddie Murphy and Mario Van Peebles.
The swank fundraiser came after Obama charmed several thousand supporters at a large outdoor afternoon rally in South Los Angeles, wrapping up a three-day fundraising blitz up and down the campaign cash-rich Golden State. Obama’s tie-less, shirt-sleeves-rolled-up 30-minute speech was anchored in his campaign’s ongoing themes of changing America and ending the Iraq war and foreign oil dependence. “We fund both sides of the war on terrorism,” he told the crowd.
Orange County, Cal., businesswoman and soccer mom Tanya Hutchison said she epitomized the divided loyalties of African-American women equally attracted to Obama and Clinton. “I love Hillary too and she’s a minority and I want to support both,” said the mother of five, who runs a women’s empowerment web site. “I’m not 100 percent on either.”
Well-known California Dem faces were absent from the rally. U.S. Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) attended the rally along with some Los Angeles City Council members, but noticeably absent was L.A.’s always camera-ready Democratic Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, whose major donors include supermarket mogul and Clinton supporter Ron Burkle.
Though only one reporter was allowed into the dinner, some attendees offered their opinions after leaving the early evening event;
- Rev. Jesse Jackson said his stopping by Obama’s fundraiser was, “quite coincidental” and that he was in L.A. working on some trade and education issues. As for Obama, “Barack has my vote. He’s from Illinois.” He also described former Sen. John Edwards as, “a sleeper.”
- Quentin Tarantino and Al Gore film producer Lawrence Bender said Obama, “is my candidate. He’s a force or nature.” (Obama on Tuesday praised Gore’s Bender-produced film, “An Inconvenient Truth,” saying that thanks to this Oscar-nominated documentary, the issue of global warming, “suddenly is in everyone’s living room.”)
- Grammy-winning Dixie Chicks lead singer Natalie Maines said Obama is her ’08 choice for now - “early on.” She added that aside from fundraising, the real point of Tuesday’s dinner was that, “everyone was gettin’ a feel for him, for the first time.”
- Former Paramount Pictures CEO and longtime Democratic Party activist Sherry Lansing said Obama was, “spectacular” but that she has loyalties also to Clinton and Edwards.
Longtime L.A. political consultant Steve Barkan said Obama has generated so much excitement among California Dems partly because, “people want to see, touch, feel.” He echoed his fellow Dems in praising what he said is the wealth of ’08 candidates including Obama, Clinton, Edwards and former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, combining into what Barkan called the party’s, “Hilla-bam-ward-son." [DAVID FINNEGAN]
An insurgent candidate when he last ran for president, John McCain is hoping to win over the establishment crowd from Wall Street and big media at a three-day conference in Deer Valley, Utah, next week. Among the 165 chief executives expected to attend -- “the chiefs, not their deputies,” says one insider -- are media mogul Rupert Murdoch, ad firm chief Ann Fudge of Young & Rubicam, CBS executive Les Moonves and Sirius radio CEO Mel Karmazin.
The Arizona Senator had some of these big establishment names in his corner in 2000, when he challenged President George W. Bush for the Republican nomination. Viacom and Goldman Sachs employees gave the Senator $96,000 seven years ago, for example, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But they gave even more generously to Democratic nominee Al Gore: $166,000. Fully one-third of McCain’s fund-raising in 2000 came in the form of small donations under $200.
The Senator’s entrée to next week’s high-level networking event is James B. “Jimmy” Lee Jr., vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase, which sponsors the annual conference in Utah mountain country. Lee is also co-chairing McCain’s presidential exploratory committee, and he has arranged time in the schedule for important people to get to know the Senator. An overnight stay, a keynote address by McCain and a fireside chat with PBS interviewer Charlie Rose are on the itinerary.
With so many New Yorkers attending the conference, which begins Feb. 28, it’s significant that one will be absent: former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. McCain supporters are consciously trying to make inroads into Giuliani’s presumed fund-raising base. McCain will follow up with a fund-raiser in Phoenix on the evening of March 2, and then jet into New York for a March 8 gala. [ANNE MICHAUD]
Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain’s Insider political newsletter based in New York City.
IA's "Caucus Cooler" blog compares '00 vs. '08 attendance at the Five County GOP Dinner in Orange City, IA: "It was this event that gave President Bush a lot of momentum 8 years ago. Bush turned out an enormous crowd which furthered the conventional wisdom that he was strong with conservatives and his election was inevitable. ... But word from Northwest Iowa is that Romney didn't get the same boost from this event last night. Only about 150 tickets were sold and the attendance was somewhere near 100. For 5 counties that is a low turnout."
Writes Pres. Clinton: "Am I enthusiastic about my wife's campaign for president? You bet I am. I know her better than anybody on earth, and she's got the best combination of mind and heart of everybody I've ever known."
"All across the country, Hillary is campaigning with the signature wisdom, grace, and humor that make her a great candidate. I know that if we all work hard enough, those same traits will make her an even better president."
"You and I know something about waging and winning presidential campaigns."
The inevitable conclusory statement from Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign. "You Refuse To Disavow X But You Said Y"
The subtle message: Obama's campaign ain't as high and mighty as it claims to be.
BTW: who ever imagined the two would get into a spat over David Geffen? Is that a parody of Democrats, or what?
“By refusing to disavow the personal attacks from his biggest fundraiser against Senator Clinton and President Clinton, Senator Obama has called into serious question whether he really believes his own rhetoric. How can Senator Obama denounce the politics of slash & burn yesterday while his own campaign is espousing the politics of trash today?
“When one of Senator Clinton’s supporters made an inappropriate statement, her campaign disavowed it immediately and the supporter apologized for his words. Why won’t Senator Obama do the same?”
The Obama camp has responded to Howard Wolfson's demands. From spokesperson Robert Gibbs: "We aren’t going to get in the middle of a disagreement between the Clintons and someone who was once one of their biggest supporters. It is ironic that the Clintons had no problem with David Geffen when was raising them $18 million and sleeping at their invitation in the Lincoln bedroom. It is also ironic that Senator Clinton lavished praise on Monday and is fully willing to accept today the support of South Carolina State Sen. Robert Ford, who said if Barack Obama were to win the nomination, he would drag down the rest of the Democratic Party because ’he's black.’"
"Who am I? Why am I here?" is one of the 10 most memorable debate lines in modern presidential campaign history. The line, of course, was uttered by the late Adm. James Stockdale at the ’92 vice presidential debate, where Stockdale tried to reassure the country that Ross Perot’s (I) important first decision wasn't a bad one.
While funny at the time, the line turned out to be the beginning of the end (a second time) for the Perot campaign, because Stockdale did nothing to reassure anyone of Perot's capacity to be the leader of the free world.
The quote itself is one I always like to apply to presidential candidates: Who are they? Why are they here?
A successful presidential campaign needs two simple things -- a dynamic candidate who can relate to the American people and a message that fits the times. The most successful candidates are able to blend their persona and message together in order to become the right candidate at the right time (e.g. Ronald Reagan in 1980, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992). In other years, their messages or personas would have been problems; instead, they became the core strengths for their successful bids.
Two candidates this cycle seem so intent on answering the second question -- why are they here -- that they’ve made the first question much more difficult for the average voter to understand.
Both John Edwards (D) and Mitt Romney (R) have been going through political evolutions that seem to make perfect political sense but just haven't felt right so far, at least to thosecovering the campaign. Frankly, if the media filter isn't buying the change, the voters might not, either [CHUCK TODD].
Hillary Clinton's campaign apparently didn't take too kindly to the harsh rhetoric from L.A. music mogul David Geffen, courtesy of today's Maureen Dowd. Geffen, who is backing Barack Obama, called Bill Clinton "reckless" and clearly is still upset that Clinton didn't grant a pardon to cause celeb native American Leonard Peltier. More Geffen: "Marc Rich getting pardoned? An oil-profiteer expatriate who left the country rather than pay taxes or face justice?"
Clinton chief spokesperson Howard Wolfson, in a release this a.m., is "demanding that" Obama "disavow personal attacks" from Geffen. Wolfson: "While Senator Obama was denouncing slash and burn politics yesterday, his campaign's finance chair was viciously and personally attacking Senator Clinton and her husband. If Senator Obama is indeed sincere about his repeated claims to change the tone of our politics, he should immediately denounce these remarks, remove Mr. Geffen from his campaign and return his money. While Democrats should engage in a vigorous debate on the issues, there is no place in our party or our politics for the kind of personal insults made by Senator Obama's principal fundraiser."
We're waiting on a response from Obama's camp. And while we wait, we'd love to speculate as to why the Clinton folks chose pick this battle? It's not as if they are used to getting good Dowd columns. And considering that this may be the first serious back-n-forth between Clinton and Obama of the campaign, it could end up stepping on the NV Dem-AFSCME cattle call. Do the Clinton folks want to see how quickly Obama backs down (if he does)? Do they simply want to highlight Obama's Hollywood ties? Or are some Clinton folks simply mad at Geffen? Has he said harsher things that we don't know about?
With British PM Tony Blair announcing this a.m. a withdrawal date for British troops, TV speculated what this would mean for the WH:
CNN's Malveaux: "The White House is really trying to paint this as a success story. ... The White House saying that this is simply a success, a sign that things are working in Basra" ("Situation Room," 2/20).
MSNBC's Scarborough: "The news couldn't come at a worse time for a president who's watching his own party as they eat their own" ("Scarborough Country," 2/20).
ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "That's obviously a big, big development, a big story, both militarily and politically. Politically, it will leave President Bush ... with much more isolation. ... That's going to give ammunition to people who say, even with a surge in American troops, once we leave, that there's going to be a slaughter" ("AC 360," 2/20).
Newsweek's Fineman: "The American public's already extremely dubious about the war in general, and the surge in particular. Even if they don't want us to pull every last soldier out there tomorrow, they want us to be gone. And they're naturally going to ask, If the British can go, why can't we?" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/20).
DEVAL DIVULGES NOTHING
Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) was in the "Situation Room":
On who he'll endorse in WH '08: "I do expect to get involved in the race, including in the primary, but, for the time being -- I have been in office less than two months -- I have got to concentrate on my knitting right here."
On Mitt Romney: "Governor Romney deserves some credit for helping be a part of the coalition that brought us a health reform legislation, a very big and broad step forward. And I'm proud of that. It falls to us, now, to implement that. And we are working on that very hard" (CNN, 2/20).
AND THE LIBBY TRIAL GOES TO THE JURY
MSNBC's Shuster: "The headline is that both sides were very emotional. Ted Wells at the very end broke down and had tears in his eyes. ... And prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald finished with a flourish, getting very emotional himself as he said the defense wants you to think that you should be angry about this prosecution" ("Hardball," 2/20).
Newsweek's Isikoff: "What today's closing arguments really underscored is why the White House was so nervous about this trial, why they were so reluctant to talk anything about it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/20).
BILL KEEPS ON TRYING
FNC's O'Reilly broadcast his show from L.A.: "I tried to buy a ticket to the Obama fundraiser. I had my $2,300, much of it in pennies, ready to go. But the Obama people would not sell me a ticket. I don't know why" ("O'Reilly Factor," 2/20). [EMILY GOODIN]
Some wag wanted to make sure that as we, the media, build Sen. John McCain up, we also tear him down.
In that vein, here's a clip of McCain actually saying what that oppo floating around has him saying. (The video was destined for posting on YouTube, our source insists, but we decided to pre-empt him/her for the traffic.)
Again, it's one thing to read it, it's another thing to see it and hear it.
BTW: Is this the first YouTube war between different candidates' supporters?
MCCAIN:
“But we all know, and it's obvious, that if we repeal Roe v. Wade tomorrow, thousands of young American women would be performing illegal and dangerous operations. I want us to be a party of inclusion. I think that we can all be members of the Republican party whether we are pro-choice or pro-life because we share the same goal and that is the elimination of abortion. Because it is an unpleasant and terrible procedure. We think -- I think that we must go back to the party platform of 1980 and '84. We include people who have specific disagreements who share our same goals.”
Was that all McCain said?
Check out the sentence that's not on the clip.
Full quote: “I am proud of a 17-year voting record of pro-life positions. And I adhere to that position. I believe this issue of the repeal of Roe v. Wade is important. I favor the ultimate repeal of Roe v. Wade. But we all know, and it's obvious, that if we repeal Roe v. Wade tomorrow...."
Which, basically, is the position of Pres. Bush, isn't it?
Being a "maverick" in some sense of the word (once synonymous with the AZ Senator), John McCain traded 2/17's Senate debate on the non-binding Iraq resolution for a long weekend of campaigning - with stops throughout IL, OH, IA, FL and SC. A more conservatively charged straight-talk express was in full motion, aiming to tout McCain's most conservative credentials at each turn, from his unending support for the Iraq war and a significant troop increase (going so far as to say that 20,000 troops might not be enough), to an uninhibited call for overturning Roe vs. Wade, to a "private," yet well publicized meeting with evangelical leaders at the National Religious Broadcaster's Convention in Orlando, FL. His harsh critique of ex-Sec/Def Donald Rumsfeld, saying "he will go down in history as one of the worst secretaries of defense in history," was also well received in SC.
Judging from coverage, both local and nat'l, McCain's decision to skip the "political stunt" in DC paid off, gaining key conservative support in competitive states. New York Times's Nagourney: "After hearing Mr. McCain speak, some said his support for Mr. Bush had gone some distance in mitigating reservations they had about him, including his record of being critical of Mr. Bush." Others likened his campaign presence to the McCain of '99 with the free flowing and informal nature of this weekend’s lineup. Washington Post's Balz: "There were flashes of the old McCain," as he "decried" the GOP that has "lost its way" and "punctuated question-and-answer sessions with his particular brand of humor." In a reference to his supposedly ethanol-position rooted reasoning for skipping the IA caucuses in ’00, McCain quipped in Des Moines, "I had my glass of ethanol this morning, and I'm feeling good."
Top it off with two endorsements at the SC rally from ex-Sen. Phil Gramm and ex-Gov. Frank Keating as well as the news of ex-Sen. Mike DeWine and Sen. John Thune's support, McCain certainly knew how to spend his long President's Day Weekend: fine tuning his well oiled campaign machine and doing everything he can to celebrate the holiday as a president himself in '08. The straight-talk express is shining even brighter these days in light of the media mindset forming around a certain other top WH ’08 GOPer labeled as a conservative flip-flopper. [AMY DUDLEY]
Hold on to your mice -- the Blogometer's own Conn Carroll gives us an online tour.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
While researching a National Journal article on ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's evolution on abortion and gay rights, we came across transcripts of his 2002 gubernatorial debate with Dem Shannon O'Brien.
An anonymous YouTuber obtained the actual video. As you listen to the exchange below, be reminded that you're listening to Romney talk about abortion only five years ago.
His only difference with O'Brien -- Romney did not support a chance in the age of consent law to 16, preferring to keep it at 18. Of the state's judicial bypass, Romney said, "So far, in Massachusetts history, when a young woman has gone to a judge, not one single time has there been a denial of that permission."
On the laws generally: "I will preserve them, I will protect them, I will enforce them."
With so few Senate seats potentially "in play" in '08, we thought we'd remind folks of the last time 1 or fewer seats changed hands. The year? 1990. The seat: MN SEN (Wellstone for Boschwitz). The same cycle of SEN seats we're entering in now.
On Sunday, Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up the endorsement of SC State Sen. David Mack III. The last time we checked, Sen. Mack was a public supporter of Sen. Joe Biden. Mr. Mack is a talk show host and small business owner, and one of the politicians that outside journalists call to get the skinny on politics. Was it something Biden said?
Over the weekend, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), an important but not unexpected development. Thune's father served with McCain's grandfather in the Navy, and the two have publicly flirted. Recall how Thune was the '04 cycle's Barack Obama for Republicans. He was a Giant Killer, defeating Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) , and has been, for more than two years, on many pundits' short lists for the Republican vice presidential nomination. Thune tells the Washington Post that he somehow convinced McCain to promise to appoint "guys like Roberts and Alito" to the Supreme Court. (McCain today announced the endorsement of Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH).
Has McCain always been pro-life? CBN's David Brody uses some suspiciously detailed research to get at the answer. Yes -- but McCain hasn't always been favor of overturning Roe. Brody's conclusion: "So, to me, the question for John McCain isn't really whether he is pro-life or not. The question for John McCain is if he's President, how strongly will he fight for the pro-life issues including using his soapbox to speak out on the life issue and the eventual repeal of Roe vs Wade?"
An argument we often hear from Romney acolytes is that while McCain voted the right way for a longer period of time, there ain't no zealout like a convert.
Speaking of Romney, check out the names on his Georgia Leadership Team: "Serving on Governor Romney's statewide team will be House Speaker Pro Tempore Mark Burkhalter, Congressman John Linder, Congressman Phil Gingrey, Congressman Tom Price, Eric J. Tanenblatt, Cobb County Commissioner Sam Olens, Oscar N. Persons, Fred Cooper and Nancy Coverdell." Mrs. Coverdell is the wife of the late Sen. Paul Coverdell, a beloved figure in the state.
Finally, Ex-Rep. Tommy Thompson picked up the support of ex IA 01 House candidate.ex IA House approps chair Bill Dix. Dix will be general chair of Thompson's exploratory committee.
Taking the mic at a reception prior to the Virginia Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday, Barack Obama thanked Gov. Tim Kaine for endorsing him – the first from a governor outside of a candidate’s home state. “It’s a testimony to our friendship, it’s a testimony to Tim’s courage. And it’s a testimony that Mark Warner’s not running,” Obama said.
The crowd of VIPs roared, and then began to chant: “VP! VP! VP!” Smiling, Obama only referred to his and Warner’s matching blue ties. “I want you to notice how we’re dressed tonight,” he said.
Candidate or not, Virginia's former governor still was the favorite son. Obama paid his dues, saying he’s “taking advantage of folks on the rebound.” “We have been enjoying incredible support from a lot of Warner supporters. And I think it’s because these three men represent where the country wants to go,” Obama said, referring to Warner, Kaine and former Gov. Doug Wilder.
Obama’s presence was clearly a factor in what was a record crowd of 4,000 at the Richmond Convention Center. Hillary Clinton signs lined the street outside, and she, Wes Clark and John Edwards had volunteers on hand. But the overwhelming majority of attendees crowded the Obama campaign’s table before and after the dinner.
Still, not everyone was ready to follow Kaine’s lead in endorsing Obama, preferring to keep an open mind this early in the race. Warner himself simply said: “We’ve got great candidates.” And Wilder, the nation’s first African American governor, had praise for Obama but told Hotline after: “As you know we weigh everything. And we’ll be talking.”
What everyone could agree on was that Virginia, after two straight gubernatorial wins and a landmark Senate win, would be in play November 2008. “I expect to be in Virginia a lot,” Obama said. [MIKE MEMOLI]
The Hotline has learned that Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will air his first campaign advertisement in Iowa. Beginning tomorrow, the 30-second spot will air on network television affiliates in Des Moines, and possibly on stations in other markets. The buy will last through 2/25.
Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.
WHY, CAN'T WE ALL GET ALONG?
While Iraq remains at the top of President Bush's agenda, Afghanistan inched a bit closer to the top over at AEI. Bush emphasized his desire to take a multilateral approcah - surprising some in the audience who consider his push for a surge of troops in Iraq far different from that. Bush, on Afghanistan: "We will train you, we will help you and we will stand with you..."
BIDEN-ING HIS TIME
In a packed room full of press, onlookers, and Congressional officials, Sen. Joe Biden (DE) mapped out his five-point plan for Iraq at The Brookings Institution yesterday, which he crafted alongside Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb. Alhough Biden touted his plan, as the greatest factor setting him apart from other '08ers, could there also be a few unspoken similarities? And, as serious as he is, what sort of statements bring out his sense of humor?
IT JUST TAKES TALENT
Over at The Heritage Foundation, former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) addressed Bush's plans to prepare the army to send more troops to Iraq. Pushing for the health and wellness of our troops, Talent proposed a few ways to "rightsize" the army for a new course which lies ahead.
SOUL SEARCHING
If GOPers hope to run the next Congress, Cato Institute's Michael Tanner suggests they consider a new brand of conservatism. Highlighting a detailed plan as well as his new book, Leviathan on the Right, Tanner offered GOPers a route to return back to the days preceding former President Bill Clinton.
ABOUT SIGNING THAT BILL...
Will DC dwellers someday have a chance to send their own members to Congress? AEI's John Fortier layed out the problems with a new bill some of our neighbors have pushed for. Among them, such a bill is unconstitutional. So what choice do determined advocates, hopefuls, and craftsmen have? Fortier suggests they retrace their steps, re-read the Constitution, and consider three steps which could lead to a more promising path.
At first glance, the jarring black-and-white website makes us wonder exactly what message McCain is trying to send – that the choices in this election are black-and-white? Whatever the case, we know he’s serious.
To its credit, the black-and-white format lets viewers focus on what’s in color – the Senator’s inspiring videos, which currently include a personal introduction and a tribute to Ronald Reagan. The videos occupy the homepage’s main feature, demonstrating that the McCain camp has a clear understanding of what attracts viewers.
One unique feature is the roll over flash content at the base of the homepage, where simply rolling over automatically plays a video of McCain, who explains the site’s sections. No reading necessary.
The website also includes a blog section. But rather than have their own blog (and hire campaign bloggers), McCain’s camp appears to be putting it all in the user’s hands, inviting its readers to “engage with outside blogs.”
The ability for users to submit questions via YouTube is one feature will likely be a hit. Another great idea is the “Undecided?” section because it allows the site’s content to be audience-specific.
But the site’s most interesting feature is the interactive “McCainSpace” section, a MySpace imitation that allows users to create their own webpages. If community sites like MySpace and Facebook are any indicator, the system is a proven way for people with common interests to network, get involved and stay updated on the campaign’s latest news. Sen. Barack Obama’s is up with a similar community site called my.barackobama.com
While other campaigns use pre-existing community sites like Facebook, MyGOP, or Party Builder, the McCain team has chosen to create its own version, presumably allowing the campaign to have more control and focus. It remains to be seen whether the feature can attract a similar following. [TINA SALVATO and RIKI PARIKH]
Act One: Libby's Labor's Lost. Act Two: Much Ado About GA 10. The rest? The curtain opens...
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
When asked in a USA Today/Gallup poll how religion, race, and
sex might influence one's '08 presidential pick, more than 90% of respondents
said they would vote for a Catholic, Black, or Jewish candidate -- as long as
that candidate was "well qualified" and someone their party had nominated.
Yet sex, marriage, and religion proved more sensitive subjects.
Asked about Jimmy Carter's new book, respondents who
read it were asked whether they their impression was favorable or
unfavorable -- as well as how they considered Carter as a president.
The results are below:
If Your Party Nominated A Generally
Well-Qualified Candidate For WH '08
Who Was ___, Would You Vote For That Person?
Yes No
Catholic 95% 4%
Black 94 5
Jewish 92 7
A woman 88 11
Hispanic 87 12
Mormon 72 24
Married for third time 67 30
72 years old 57 42
A homosexual 55 43
An atheist 45 53
Would You Be Comfortable In Voting
For A WH '08er Who Was ___?
Comfort- With Would
able Reserv- Not
ations Vote
Black 84% 9% 5%
A woman 78 10 11
Mormon 58 14 24
72 years old 43 15 42
Married for
third time 54 13 30
Of the 29 Dems on the DCCC's first '08 "Frontline" list, 4 won more than 55% of the vote in 2006: Reps. Chet Edwards (TX), Chris Murphy (CT), Brad Ellsworth (IN), and Zack Space (OH).
Democratic consultant Marius Penczner has seen his share of presidential campaigns from the inside, and he's not through with them yet.
In 1996, he worked for the Clinton/Gore team; in 2000, he was with Al Gore again when Gore was at the top of the ticket. And in 2004, he worked with another primary candidate who ended up on the ballot: John Edwards. This cycle, he's back with the former North Carolina senator in his second bid for the presidency.
But Penczner's portfolio extends beyond presidential media strategy. He also designed ads for Harold Ford Jr. (D) during each of his House campaigns beginning with his initial run for Congress in 1996. (GMMB did most of Ford's Senate campaign spots.) New York Times editorial writer Adam Cohendeemed the "Rancher" ad Penczner did for Nebraska congressional candidate Scott Kleeb one of seven "brutally effective" spots that aired during the '06 cycle. (Subscription Required)
This week, Penczner participates in Ad Spotlight's Q&A with political media consultants. Edited excerpts follow. [ERIN MCPIKE]
LOS ANGELES - Ex-VP Al Gore repeated his I’m-not-running-in-‘08 stance here Thursday as he focused instead on a July 7th global concert tied into his Oscar-nominated global warming movie.
“I haven’t changed my answer about politics in quite a few years now,” said Gore.
When asked about a New York Observer story this week which reported that he is keeping his ‘08 options open until September, Gore shook his head but said “I have no intention of running for president again and I’m involved in a different kind of campaign. And persuading other people in this country and all over the world that we have to solve the climate crisis is a position that I feel very passionately about and I’m devoting myself to it.”
But like most Oscar nominees this month, Gore has been in campaign mode to win an Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature for his concert-spawning, slideshow-driven film, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Gore’s Hollywood profile has remained high lately thanks partly to his presence earlier this week at The Grammy Awards; on Thursday he mentioned that there too his global concert attracted attention, with Gore saying that members of the Red Hot Chili Peppers told him, “`we’re in.’”
All Academy Award voting ends next Tuesday. “I don’t want to jinx that whole deal by talking about it,” said the former veep, who also is growing tired of his global warming critics. “I’m running outta things to say to them. Look, this has been well known for a long time.”
Like the global Live Aid concert for African famine relief in 1985, Gore’s 24-hour, July 7th concert aspires to attract about two billion people through live broadcast and online performances on all seven continents - including what he said would be, “the first live musical performance originating from Antarctica.” Gore’s cable channel Current TV also will display viewer-created global warming messages and art during the concert. [DAVID FINNIGAN]
Finnegan is a free-lance writer based in California.
In a packed room full of press, onlookers, and Congressional officials, Sen. Joe Biden (DE) mapped out his five-point plan for Iraq at The Brookings Institution yesterday, which he crafted alongside Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb. In a nutshell, Biden suggested Iraqis need:
1) Breathing Room: Decentralizing the nation could offer Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis "breathing room in their own regions." That way, the central government could control Iraqi shared interests, such as border security and oil revenue distribution.
2) Oil Revenue: By "guaranteeing" the Sunnis, who lack oil, "a proportionate share (about 20 %) of oil revenues," perhaps former Baathists would return to work, "reintegrating those with no blood on their hands."
3) Help From Their Neighbors: Increasing economic aid and "asking oil-rich Arab Gulf states to fund it," could help provide ways to "defend minority rights" and create a jobs program "to deny the militia new recruits."
4) A Networking Group: If Iraqis met with their neighbors and set up a regional conference, creating "a Contact Group of the major powers to enforce their commitments," perhaps -- in the long haul -- violence would lessen in the region.
5) Their Own '08 Date: Just as deadlines often serve well at work, so too, might they in Iraq. If Congress asked the military "for a plan to responsibly withdraw most U.S. forces" by '08... "while refocusing the mission of a small residual force on counter-terrorism and training Iraqis," Iraqis could have "enough time" to organize and prepare their own government to take over.
Alhough Biden touted his plan, as the greatest factor setting him apart from other '08ers, could there also be a few unspoken similarities? And, as serious as he is, what sort of statements bring out his sense of humor? [SARAH LOVENHEIM]
TV concentrated heavily on the Senate Iraq debate, as well as Pres. Bush's troop increase in Afghanistan.
CNN's Blitzer: "A Senate deadlock over an Iraq resolution could get busted wide open very soon in an explosion of partisan fireworks. Democrats now promising to hold a rare Saturday vote. A new showdown over the president's plan for a troop build-up in Iraq" ("Situation Room," 2/15).
FNC's Garrett: "The thirst among Senate Democrats to vote on a non-binding anti-surge resolution can only be described as insatiable. Let's keep count, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has abandoned two previous anti-surge resolutions. ... Reid's latest fancy is the House resolution, any anti-surge, apparently, will do" ("Special Report," 2/15).
CNN's Bash, on which WH '08 Sens. will be present at the Sat. vote: "Senator Clinton's office tells us she will be in the Senate if there is a vote. So does Senator Biden's. We haven't reached others, except Senator Obama's. And, a campaign aide essentially says that he has not decided whether he is going to stay in Washington for that vote" ("Situation Room," 2/15).
MSNBC's Olbermann: "The Pentagon announcing plans to send an additional 3,200 troops to Afghanistan, bringing the American presence there to about 27,000 total, the current escalation of combat troops for Iraq nearly that large" ("Countdown," 2/15).
CNN's Dobbs: "The president's remarks today on Afghanistan covered the need for more troops. The need to push back the Taliban and al Qaeda. And of course the need to support the Afghan government. But there was a significant omission by the name of Osama" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/15).
LAYING DOWN THE LAW
Joe Biden was in "Situation Room" last night.
On Bush saying Dems are hypocritical in opposing the new Iraq strategy because they voted to confirm General Petraeus: "I think that's ridiculous. It's a little bit like saying that because I opposed the war in Iraq that I should be against the military. I mean this is the president of the United States' plan. It's not Petraeus' plan. It's the president of the United States' plan. I know General Petraeus. He's a fine guy and he's perfectly capable of leading our forces. The policy he's asked to lead on is a mistake."
Asked if HRC should admit her Iraq vote was a mistake: "That is purely up to Senator Clinton. I have great respect for her. I remember when we both made our statements on the floor of the United States Senate when this war was being voted on. We both squarely said the president was expected to do things he didn't do, and he did the opposite things he said he was going to do. So I don't want to second-guess Senator Clinton at all" (CNN, 2/15).
Biden also played "Hardball."
On a solution in Iraq: "It gets very complicated. So what I'm doing is ... redefine what authority the president has to use force in Iraq. The original authority he had was to get rid of weapons of mass destruction, take down Saddam Hussein, comply with U.N. resolutions. That's all done. Now we have to define for him, 'Mr. President, you're not allowed to get us in the middle this civil war. You're allowed to train Iraqi forces. You should be bringing in the international community to make it their
problem and get a political solution. And you should help them with their constitution'" (MSNBC, 2/15) [KATHERINE LEHR].
1. The Los Angeles Times is conducting a 2008 presidential preference survey of members of the Republican National Committee.
2. NM Gov. Bill Richardson plans to raise $2M tonight in Albuquerque.
3. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has agreed to attend the 3/24 debate in Nevada sponsored by the Service Employees International Union. He's not attending an earlier debate put on by AFSCME, a big union for public employees. For accuracy's sake, let's call these events "forums," since the candidates won't share the stage.
4. Attention Massachusetts Republicans: you can now attend tonight's Romney fest in Boston for free. We hear that some Romney supporters are blast e-mailing their GOP friends with pleas to stop by the event, which the campaign bills as a demonstration of the breadth of Romney's appeal among MA Republicans.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Dems are trying to build on inroads they've made with religious voters, but perhaps no one faces a bigger challenge among those voters than Hillary Clinton. Hotline's John Mercurio has the story in this week's PolitiScope.
Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has announced that the Senate will vote on the surge resolution this Saturday. But a quick look at Hotline’s table of WH candidate schedules indicates that at least six Senators were planning to be out of town that day:
Biden: Iowa Clinton: Boston Dodd: South Carolina Obama: South Carolina and Richmond, VA Brownback: Orlando, FL McCain: Iowa
Sen. Chuck Hagel, who of course hasn’t announced his intentions yet, had no public events planned. So will any of the other six change plans? [MIKE MEMOLI]
Is it just us or are there fewer WH campaigns HQed in the DC metro area than ever before. A majority of the Big Six campaigns are based outside the Beltway (including Romney, Edwards, Rudy and Obama). And don't forget Huckabee, Vilsack and Brownback (among others) all in their home states, rather than in DC. Has there been another year when so few were HQed in DC? Let us know.
As expected, Barack Obama’s announcement was covered big by the media, about as big as Hillary Clinton’s announcement. The test for Obama, though, is whether he can sustain momentum in the same vein as Hillary.
As for the rest of the pack, the blogger controversy is a full-fledged debacle for EdwardsWorld. It stepped on his health care rollout and has been the dominant theme of his campaign for a week.
For the remainder of this first quarter, we'll be including a fundraising projection based on what all the campaigns are saying about themselves and each other, and our own reporting of what's going on in these various fundraising shops.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.Click here for Democratic rankings.
1. Hillary ClintonLast Ranking: 1
Clinton got into a bit of a royal rut trying not to make the same mistake John Kerry made -- seeming weak and being for something before being against it. It's cute to say "it was Bush's mistake," but the base knows that, and they want more.Here's another way of looking at it: Obama goes on "60 Minutes" and admits to using cocaine; Clinton, when asked about the war, blames someone else. Who's more real? Fundraising projection: $50 million, +/- $10 million. Almanac Profile
2. Barack Obama. Last Ranking: 2 The He's trying to run an unconventional campaign with conventional (but talented) strategists. Something will give, and soon. By the way, Michelle Obama reminds us a lot of Hillary circa 1992 -- an accomplished woman who will be a challenge for the campaign to manage -- which means she'll probably be more of an asset than somein the media believe. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million.Almanac Profile
TV focused on the Pres. Bush presser and its implications for Iraq and Iran.
CNN's Blitzer: "At his first news conference this year, President Bush seemed resigned to a symbolic Congressional vote against his plan for a troop build-up in Iraq. But he sounded downright miffed at repeated questions about whether Iran is arming Iraqi insurgents" ("Situation Room," 2/14).
MSNBC's Carlson: "The president did not mention anywhere in the press conference democracy in Iraq or the Iraqi constitution. It does seem like everybody has kind of given up on the notion that spreading democracy in the Middle East is a good idea" ("Tucker," 2/14).
FNC's Baier: "Soon after the news conference, Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton took to the Senate floor, calling the president's comments about Iran, quote, deeply concerning and disturbing, and insisting that the president cannot be allowed to act without the authority and oversight of Congress" ("Special Report," 2/14).
Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), on a non-binding resolution: "The president, on the one hand, says that this is just a resolution that doesn't really mean that much and, on the other hand, the White House is working very hard to stop Republicans from voting for it. ... The motion of disapproval of the president's escalation of the war in Iraq is going to set the stage for a whole new debate on Iraq. We'll take care of this, this week" ("Newshour," PBS, 2/14).
IT's OFFICIAL...(again)
Rudy Giuliani was on "LKL" last night.
CNN's L. King: "Are you running or not?"
Giuliani: "Yes, I'm running. Sure."
L. King: "Do you make an official announcement or is this it -- here, right now?"
Giuliani: "I guess you do one of these things where you do it four times or five times in a day so that I can, you know, get on your show and about five others. ... Yes, I'm running."
L. King: "I don't want to break your heart, but if you're president, you can't root for the Yankees. ... You have to root for everybody."
Giuliani, on being a strict constructionist: "I am pro-choice, yes. But I ... always have been against abortion, hate abortion, don't like it, wouldn't personally advise anyone to have an abortion ... but I believe a woman has a right to choose. And you can't have criminal penalties and I think that would be wrong. I would select judges who try to interpret the Constitution rather than invent it, from my views as a lawyer. And I don't want to sound presumptuous, I'm not a constitutional lawyer, but I have argued in the Supreme Court and I have argued in many of the circuit courts. I've spent more time in court than I have in politics."
Asked if he favors a constitutional amendment saying marriage is between a man and a woman: "Not if it remains the way it is now. Unless all of a sudden lots of states do what Massachusetts does and kind of come at it from the other side and decide that the Constitution says that you cannot have marriage between a man and a woman. If it stays the way it is, you don't need one."
Asked if it is going to be for him in the South: "I've been in South Carolina quite a bit -- and other parts of the South. And it seems like they're open. It seems like people are open to maybe approaching this election a little differently ... both on the Republican side and the Democratic side."
L. King: "So you think they'll vote for you?"
Giuliani: "I think they will. I think they will. And I think they will on the basis of leadership. I think they will on the basis of ultimately we need someone who we think can handle this country at a time of war and a time in which we have real tough things that we have to face that we haven't been facing for a while" (CNN, 2/14). [KATHERINE LEHR].
The Rudy Giuliani Exploratory Cmte. sent out fundraising letters on 2/5.
In a letter, Giuliani paints himself as Reagan 2.0, quoting the fmr. pres. as saying "The future belongs to the free." Giuliani: "Today, as Republicans, we need to restore that optimistic spirit to our party and to the national political debate that is shaping the future of this great nation."
Giuliani writes that he believes the GOP is the "party of freedom" and then lays out the party platform of low taxes, small gov't, entitlement reform, and school choice, and then lists his GOP record as Reagan's Associate AG and NYC Mayor.
To give you the extra confidence for your investment, manager Mike Duhaime attaches a "Memorandum" addressed to "Team Rudy" detailing recent nat'l poll numbers, all of which show, on average, Giuliani leading John McCain. "More importantly," he includes polling numbers in early primary states, which are also mostly favorable toward Giuliani.
Giuliani writes: "I'm humbled by early polls that show me leading the race nationaly and in key primary states. I am ready for the tremendous amount of hard work that lies ahead to earn our party's nomination, and I would count on the help from party leaders like you."
Oh, and the 9/11 reference: "In the dark days after September 11th, I knew that the United States would neet the crisis and rise to new heights. Because people who live in freedom have much more strength than people who live in oppression." He goes on to compare it to the "story of the Old Testament ... the Second World War ... (and) the history our generation writes when we win the War on Terror."
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Mitt Romney is ready to play with the big boys on their turf. With 23 Congressmen listed as honorary chairs of the campaign, Romney plans to infiltrate DC later this month with a 2/27 luncheon fundraiser at the Mayflower Hotel on Connecticut Ave. He's allowing those who want to attend the VIP "Leadership Reception" to max-out on donations for the GOP primary at $2,300/person. The actual lunch will cost $1K/person.
Among the names of lobbyists and lawyers serving as co-chairs: American Gas Asso. EVP Rick Shelby, ex-Delay CoS Drew Maloney, Ken Sarr wife Alice Starr, Lobbyist/Latter-Day Saints stake president William Nixon, and George H.W. Bush daughter/George W. Bush sister Doro Bush Koch.
Mike DuHaime, the former RNC political director, sure has loyal colleagues.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's exploratory cmte. announced a bunch of new hires today to its political team, at the national and regional levels.
Mark Campbell, nat'l pol. dir.; "past clients" include Bush-Quayle, American Medical Association PAC, RNC, NRCC, Bush-Cheney FL Recount
Rick Wiley, dep. pol. dir.; previously served as executive director and pol. dir. of GOP of WI, exec. dir. of GOP Victory '04
Bill Stepien, nat'l field dir.; dir. of '05-'05 Nat'l 72 Hour, BC04 NH field dir
Jake Menges, sr. advisor to pol. dept.; worked for National Media, a GOP media firm in Alexandria, VA, and managed Bill Simon's CA GOV primary.
Cary Evans, nat'l field advisor; previously worked as RNC regional pol. dir., BC04 regional pol. dir., dep. manager for Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR),
Regional Political Directors
Chris Gulugian-Taylor, previously served as exec. dir. of NV Victory '06, exec. dir of NV GOP, the Nevada Republican Party as Executive Director and Political Director. Gulugian-Taylor has worked for the Republican National Committee in Washington, D.C., and in the field, serving as the Washington State 72 Hour Director for President Bush's 2004 re-election campaign.
K.C. Jones, manager for Rick O'Donnell's House Run (CO-07), VA dir. of RNC's 72 Hour, BC04 IA field dir., BC04 MN dep. exec. dir.
Matthew R. Mahoney, Giuliani's WH Pol. Affairs Liason from '02-'07, dep. dir. of advance for Giuliani between '98-'02, sr. legal adviser to Solutions America PAC.
Matt Mason, dir. GOTV in '04 and '06 for OH GOP, joined Marines after 9/11, served a tour in Iraq in '05
Tyler O'Connor, state. dir. for MO GOP 72 Hour/Victory '06, pol. dir. for Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) '04 camp
Mike Roman, dir. of Election Day Operations at RNC in '06 and in PA in '04, before that at the PA GOP camp. cmte., Phill Ward Leader from '02 to '06
Mike Vallante, COO of CA GOP, chair of RI GOP, regional pol. dir. for RNC
David Watts, exec. dir./pol. dir. of Dallas County GOP ('98-'01), Western reg. pol. dir. for BC04.
Yes, that's the coverage Sen. Hillary Clinton wants, but..
Here's what she said on the floor of the Senate about Iran.
"In dealing with the threats posed by the Iranian regime, which has gained its expanding influence in Iraq and the region as a result of the administration's policies, President Bush must not be allowed to act without the authority and oversight of Congress. It would be a mistake of historical proportion if the administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran without further congressional authorization. Nor should the president think that the 2001 resolution authorizing force after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in any way authorizes force against Iran. If the administration believes that any, any use of force against Iran is necessary, the president must come to congress to seek that authority."
State Sen. Darrell Jackson (D) is the pastor of the Bible Way Church in Columbia. which has one of the largest congregations in South Carolina. He was the youngest African American ever elected to the legislature. His endorsement is among the few in the state that can change minds and move votes.
Jackson is also a prized political consultant, and, during the past two South Carolina primary campaigns, has been the object of a bidding war between top-tier presidential candidates.
Yesterday, Jackson confirmed that he had decided to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton, less than six days after his public relations firm, Sunrise Enterprises, agreed to a contract with Clinton's campaign worth at least $10,000 a month through the 2008 elections - a total of $210,000. (The contract has not been signed.)
A few days before that, Jackson was deep in negotiations with Steve Hildebrand, a senior strategist for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign. On the table was a contract worth in excess of $5K a month, beginning on 3/15/07. Separately, Obama was personally soliciitng Jackson's endorsement.
There's no question that the contract and the negotiations are legal. Sunrise is the oldest political consulting firm run by African Americans in the state and its services were in demand: at least five candidates, including Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Joe Biden, reached out to Jackson.
But in an interview, Jackson conceded that he should have acknowledged his firm's new business relationship with the Clinton campaign. "This Clinton campaign didn't put this on me, and neither did I. We didn't intend to announce this for a while," he said. "It wasn't me that called a press conference." Jackson's colleague, State Sen. Robert Ford, proudly told a reporter yesterday that he and Jackson had decided to endorse Clinton. Jackson, in subsequent interviews with reporters, confirmed his choice.
"It's Not About The Money"
"It's not about money," he said. "Quite honestly, I've turned done more money from some of the other candidates." Jackson said that when he told an official for another campaign about his Clinton endorsement, the official offered to "double" whatever Clinton offered him. Jackson told the official, whose name and campaign affiliation he declined to identify, that he was offended at the thought that his endorsement was bought. Jackson: "I don't even take a salary" (at Sunrise).
"Senator Jackson is one of the most respected leaders in South Carolina, and he runs one of the most successful media firms in the state," said Mo Elleithee, a Clinton spokesperson. "He and his firm were being aggressively courted by other campaigns - once we learned that he was supporting Senator Clinton, we jumped at the chance to have him be part of our South Carolina operation. We're proud to have him on our team."
Elleithee said the Clinton campaign never intended to compensate Jackson in exchange for an endorsement. Another Clinton adviser acknowledged that the optics of the endorsement were cloudy but said that the negotiations were above board.
As late as Feb. 7, Jackson had not decided which candidate to support. He was fielding formal offers from at least three other campaigns, including Obama's. In October of 2004, before Obama began to publicly consider a presidential race, the then Senate candidate spoke at Jackson's church and met privately with the minister.
On Feb. 6, according to copies of an e-mail provided to the Hotline, Obama called Jackson and again asked for his endorsement. The next day, one of Jackson's aides told Hildebrand, who oversees Obama's early primary state campaigns, that Jackson would decide whether to endorse Obama within two days. The aide wrote that Jackson had not decided about which contract offer to accept. And the aide hinted to Hildebrand that Sunrise had received another offer for a consulting contract.
In 2003, Sunrise was hired by Axelrod and Associates to advise on media buys and consult on strategy for Sen. John Edwards's campaign. David Axelrod, now an Obama adviser, was Edwards's media consultant in 2004. Sen. Jackson endorsed Edwards, who won the primary.
Jackson said his personal ties to the Clinton family go back to 1992, when his firm worked for Clinton's presidential campaign and his business partner, Heywood Bannister, served on Clinton's transition team. "Obama is a friend of mine," he conceded, but Clinton "would be the best president." [MARC AMBINDER]
As some of you noted, yesterday's Overlooked confused NC's two SEN seats. (We just wanted to see if you were paying attention.) Sen. Richard Burr (R) holds ex-Sen. Sam Ervin's (D) seat, which has not re-elected an incumbent of either party since '68. Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) holds ex-Sen. Jesse Helms' (R) seat, so there is no trend/record she'd have to break to win re-election herself in '08. It remains true that Dems have not won a NC SEN seat in any WH year since '68.
TULARE , CA – Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani capped a trio of public appearances in California Tuesday at the world’s largest agricultural convention where he emphasized his love for California crops and campaign cash.
“Campaign fundraising is very important in California, it’s very important in Texas,” Giuliani said, standing in front of a huge combine and an even more massive, half-million dollar cotton picking machine. “It’s very important in New York , it’s very important in Illinois , it’s very important in Florida , it’s very important in Iowa , New Hampshire . You can’t control the fact that these elections are enormously expensive.”
Giuliani was in Fresno Monday night, 50 miles north of here. The Fresno Bee reported that about 100 people attended his $2,300-per-head fundraiser gathering at the home of Central Valley land developer Jerry DeYoung. After Tuesday morning’s World Ag Expo stop, Giuliani headed to San Diego for another event with campaign communications director Katie Levinson and California campaign chair and ’02 GOP CA nominee Bill Simon. Also trailing the ex-mayor was a field office staffer for U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), who endorsed Giuliani on Feb. 9 and sits on the NRCC’s executive committee. (“I trust him to do what’s right, and not just what is politically expedient,” said the Nunes press release.)
Like his speeches before Republican conventioneers in Sacramento last Saturday and Silicon Valley executives on Monday, Giuliani’s Central Valley visit found him facing a crowd of curious farmers and farm equipment sales folk, with one of them shouting, “Are you running?”
“Yes, I am running! And a lot sooner than I ever thought,” he said at an outdoor press conference. “When I think about my background and my experience and being from Brooklyn and then I, possibly, be a candidate for president or possibly president of the United States , that’s a real big thing to get your mind around.”
The World Ag Expo’s opening day found Giuliani appearing more relaxed here than at his two other California speeches, wearing no tie just like most the 450 salt-of-the-earth types (plus one Brooklyn transplant dressed like Tony Soprano) sitting before him in the expo hall.
Giuliani spoke to them almost as if they were a jury and the ex-federal prosecutor’s farming-is-important speech was an opening argument for his all-but-formally-announced candidacy. His focused talk was just under 14 minutes, his we’re-all-Americans themes displayed but not overplayed with some Sept. 11th references to help out, the most memorable being about Midwestern firefighters driving their rigs to Manhattan on Sept. 12. Serious applause came when Giuliani said farmers deserve, “a level-playing field.”
Just as his Silicon Valley speech linked expanding Internet technology to defetaing terrorists, Giuliani told the farmers that secure domestic food production must be maintained so that unlike energy, food will be not held hostage like energy needs now require foreign entanglements with terrorist-friendly importers. “What you learn about agriculture when you’re the mayor of America ’s largest city is how much we depend on each other,” he said, “and that we’re all in this together.”
As Giuliani toured the expo’s sprawling grounds in a golf cart, the setting could have been mistaken for Iowa , as he posed for a picture with a mom and her baby, patted an old timer’s back, and showed genuine interest while examining a $5,650 dust control unit. When a visiting Wisconsin farmer told him what Badger State town she hailed from, Giuliani replied, “ Dodge County is just about all Republican.”
After finishing his opening day speech, Giuliani went back to his chair and sat on stage with two rows of California and farm dignitaries. Still left to do before his golf cart tour was a short tribute to deceased expo volunteers; Giuliani kept his head down as a tartan-clad bagpiper played one verse of, “Amazing Grace,” the tune bagpipers often played at the 9/11 funerals Giuliani attended for New York’s 60 killed police officers and 343 lost firefighters. [DAVID FINNIGAN]
Finnigan is a free-lance writer based in California.
TV was still a lot of talk about Anna Nicole Smith with some weather and Iraq thrown in. Mitt Romney's announcement got decent coverage and he did an interview on the "Today" show this a.m.
CNN's Crowley: "Romney's courtship of the right is, well, complicated. He has been pro-choice and friendly to gay rights and embryonic stem cell research. And then he wasn't" ("Situation Room," 2/13).
CNBC's Harwood, on why Romney announced in MI: "It's certainly better than being in Massachusetts, which doesn't quite fit with the GOP theme, or in Utah, where he has also been part of his life, because that might raise questions about the whole Mormon thing, which he's not eager to address, at least on his first day formally in the race" ("Hardball," 2/13).
Scott, on the Mormon issue: "I think the more they learn about Mitt, the less they become concerned. Our faith has taught us our values, it's taught us to believe in one man-one wife, it has taught us to believe in the Constitution, it has taught us to believe in a separation of church and state. It's taught us our family values" ("Big Story," 2/13).
DOTTING THE I's
Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) was in the "Situation Room" where most of the talk focused on Iraq and Iran:
Dodd: "I would, one, argue for or author legislation that would reduce funding to allow for the redeployment of forces to put some pressure on the administration to change its policies, and do it in a way that would allow adequate time for these troops to be repositioned within Iraq and take them out of Iraq, to redirect funding to support efforts in Afghanistan, the veterans' benefits, to rebuild our military. But clearly, if the president doesn't act, then Congress has got to act responsibly. And if that's the only thing we can do, by reducing the funding to create a change there, then I'm for it."
On his habeas corpus legislation: "We made a major mistake last fall on the 60th anniversary of the Nuremberg verdicts, that we went off and basically eliminated habeas corpus in dealing with these detainees. We also decided we're no longer going to live by the Geneva Convention on major issues here. And again, to allow evidence accumulated through torture and coercion to be used in these cases. I think that was a major step back. At Nuremberg, we said we're different, we believe in the rule of law. And when I watch my government, my Congress walk away from these principles, I get very worried about it. So I've offered legislation today with Bob Menendez and Pat Leahy and Russ Feingold that says we're going to restore habeas corpus, we're going to live up to the Geneva Conventions, and we're not going to allow evidence that we acquired through torture. That's to protect our troops" (CNN, 2/13).
Dodd also played "Hardball":
On voting for the original Iraq resolution: "I made a mistake. I know you are not supposed to say that in politics. But, frankly, I wish I could have the vote back. You can't have it back" (MSNBC, 2/13).
MARK YOUR CALENDARS
FNC's Cameron: "Fox News has learned that John McCain is now making plans for his announcement, targeting March 12th to join the race officially" ("Special Report," 2/13). [EMILY GOODIN]
Massachusetts Republicans may spoil Mitt Romney’s party this week. Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani is set to score a coup with endorsements from 2 and perhaps a third of the 5 Bay State Republican state senators. Credit for the Giuliani coup goes to former governor Paul Cellucci, who’s been working to snag members of the tiny Republican caucus.
Sources said that Senate minority leader Richard Tiseito endorse Giuliani. Tisei, a Wakefield Republican, is in his first term as leader. Insiders think the only way to increase their numbers (or avoid obliteration) in 2008 is with a moderate Republican. There are 24 Republicans among the 200 Massachusetts House and Senate members.
Romney returns to Massachusetts on Thursday for Boston fund-rasier to cap a tour of early primary states that began today. The Senate GOP trio may make their announcement before that. The nineteen Republican members of the House signed a letter of support for Romney, but that too is starting to crack. State Representative Paul Loscocco jumped to McCain. Other defections among the House members are expected.
Accustomed to being ignored during Romney’s four years as governor, Republican legislators are taking considerable delight in the attention lavished on them by the three top-tier presidential contenders. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's media team is exploring the cost of buying early television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, a Romney aide confirmed today.
The aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity, would not say when Romney's campaign intended to run ads, only that the campaign had inquired about the available time and rough cost of ads in both states.
A month ago, a Romney political adviser told the Hotline that the campaign had no reason to run television ads this early. So the early activity may be a sign that Romney's advisers want to shore up his conservative credentials in the wake of articles questioning his evolution on social issues and conservative activists who have given voice to their doubts. Already, Sen. Sam Brownback and Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee have directly questioned Romney's conversion on abortion.
Romney formally launched his candidacy this morning.
Rep. Duncan Hunter’s PAC has already aired ads in Iowa, and several interest groups, including the liberal MoveOn.org, have run ads in both early primary states attacking Sen. John McCain. In 2003, then candidate Howard Dean became the first Democrat to run ads -- but that was in June. [MARC AMBINDER]
So -- has Hillary Clinton been consistent about the Iraq war?
You be the judge.
October, 2002: HRC votes for the resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq. In her floor speech and subsequent speeches justifying her vote, HRC often evoked 9/11 by reminding people that she is a senator from NY who "has seen all too closely the consequences of [the] terrible attacks on our national and balancing the risks of action versus inaction. I think New Yorkers who have gone through the fires of hell may be more in turn to the risk of not acting. I know that I am."
Clinton protects herself for future attacks against her position. [RIKI PARIKH and MARC AMBINDER]
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is posting the most commanding lead ever for a WH '08 hopeful in the current GOP Bloggers straw poll. Without any data to back it up, the Blogometer speculates that Giuliani's lead is due to two factors: 1) His official paper filing and increased hiring of campaign staff have convinced many he's serious about running; 2) the previous GOP Blogger straw poll front-runner, MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), has suffered a death of a thousand flip-flop cuts (on gay rights, abortion, CFR, etc.). With The Smoking Gun posting past oppo on Giuliani, we'll see if his stay at the top can last longer than Romney's.
GOP FIELD: Romney In Free-Fall
GOP Bloggers is conducting their Feb. WH '08 straw poll, and with 7,627 votes in the first-choice favorites are:
The Feb. results contrast sharply with the Jan. results which had Romney ahead with 28% of first choice votes. Gingrich barely moved at all from his 24% showing, but Giuliani rocketed up from his 21%.
Pajamas Media also released their latest straw poll results with a markedly result
Ron Paul 46%
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Mitt Romney 10%
Fred Thompson 3%
Seriously local politics: Sen. Hillary Clinton e-mailed Linn Co, IA residents yesterday to urge them to vote for Dem Joel Miller for state auditor. Writes Clinton: "Don't sit on the sidelines for this important election. Today and Tuesday, talk to your neighbors, call your friends and family, forward this email, and encourage everyone you know to elect Joel Miller as the new Linn County auditor. And most important, please be sure to vote tomorrow."
A Washington Postcorrection says their headline, "McCain Taps Cash He Sought to Limit," was "misleading."
John Edwards blogger Amanda Marcotteannounced her resignation last night (AP). Chris Bowers blogs, "now the progressive blogosphere will look really bad." Dave1021 wonders if Marcotte had a "desire to spend more time with her family" (MyDD.com).
Barack Obama "brought a strong antiwar message" to NH (Boston Globe), and apologized again for saying lives had been "wasted" in Iraq (New Hampshire Union Leader).
Michelle Obama "lashed out" at Obama's "rivals for peddling 'baseless claims' against him -- including charges" that "he is not black enough" (New York Post).
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Following up on a press release from last night, Sam Brownback's campaign has released the e-mail from a Gov. Mitt Romney aide which they say mislead voters about the Senator's position on abortion. According to the Brownback campaign, the following was an e-mail sent from Romney Michigan Field Director Stefani Zimmerman to Pro-Life Activists:
From: Stefani Zimmerman
To: [REDACTED]
Cc: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, February 08, 2007 1:01 PM
Subject: RE: [RNCLife] Republican National Coalition for Life FaxNotes - February 2, 1007
Hi [REDACTED] and [REDACTED],
I have attached a couple of articles that should clarify Mitt's view on abortion.
Just like Sam Brownback, Mitt was once pro-choice but changed his views upon being elected to office. Sam Brownback used to identify himself with Nancy Kassebaum and rebuffed being pro-life when he first ran for office. Kassebaum was a prominent GOP senator that was known for being pro-choice. When Brownback was elected to office, that is when he also had a conversion and voted with the pro-life movement. The same is true for Mitt Romney. In fact, Mitt Romney has harshly criticized in Mass. for speaking out AGAINST embryonic stem cell research. As Governor, Mitt vetoed the morning after pill, the embryonic stem cell research bill, and issued regulations that ban the creation of embryos for research. Mitt has also received endorsements from Gary Marx, James Bopp- the national RTL counsel, and Mass. Citizens for Life.
I can assure you that if I thought Mitt was not pro-life or had pro-choice leanings, that I would not work for him. But I strongly believe that he has had a change of heart and will do the right thing to protect the unborn if elected to office. As more questions like this come up, please feel free to contact me at any time. I would love to have the opportunity to clarify and let you know what Mitt really believes.
We're waiting from confirmation from Romney's campaign, which is just starting their WH '08 announcement tour and en route from MI to IA.
The Wall Street Journal's editorial board, compiling a history of Sen. Hillary Clinton's remarks, accuses her of yoking her remarks to prevailing public opinion.
But a closer examination of what she has said and the contexts within which she has spoken shows something a little more equiovcal. It's hard to find a clear flip-flop, much less an unexpected change of position, much less any statement or comment that conflicts with the thrust of her first major speech on the subject.
We'll post our analysis later this afternoon, but the worst one could say is that when the war seemed to be progressing well, Clinton called attention to her vote (see the Saddam Hussein capture below). When WMDs weren't found and it appeared that the US footprint was too light for the task, she evinced skepticism and accused Pres. Bush of misleading the Congress. Calculation? Yes. A flip-flop? Not really.
There's a slightly less menacing storm in Michigan, too. Three Michigan lawmakers who once gave Mitt Romney their endorsement are now backing Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). (Contrary to published reports, McCain is not actually in Michigan -- he's in DC.)
SANTA CLARA, CA -- Rudy Giuliani made a few diplomatic jabs Monday at his '08 opponents including Mitt Romney on the eve of the ex-MA GOV's formal campaign start Tuesday in Dearborn, MI.
Giuliani, to reporters at a windy press conference after his speech before about 500 Silicon Valley business executives: "Governor Romney is a good friend, he was somebody I campaigned for very, very hard when he ran for governor of Massachusetts, helped him get elected. I don't think I'll be campaigning for him for the Republican nomination this time. I have another candidate that I think is probably going to be better, but I really wish him well. He's a very, very good man."
Giuliani's 29-minute Hyatt Regency speech before a venture capitalist crowd saw him make 13 references to Winston Churchill (plus another seven to Ronald Reagan) and that was fitting since the event was sponsored by Silicon Valley's bi-partisan Churchill Club speakers forum. The luncheon's typically Northern California mix of Dems, indies and GOPers found Giuliani very comfortable working a broad audience similar to the politically mixed crowds he knew as New York's mayor: he began his speech with some laughs via his throaty, Marlon Brando/Godfather voice expressing his pleasure at this, "meeting of the families from the different parts of California."
When asked by the luncheon host during the Q-and-A about the qualities of his potential subway series rival Hillary Clinton, Guiliani politely demurred: "I would not be the best source of describing Senator Clinton...the most objective source...I'm not sure she'll be the candidate."
Giuliani also pledged his fidelity to an '08 run: "I'm 100% committed. That official part, I still have to do a formal announcement but we'll figure out how to do that."
The onetime Reagan-era, Mafia-busting federal prosecutor said that as a 9/11-tested government executive, he is, "probably much more experienced with terrorism than anyone else running, except maybe John McCain."
But lacking street credibility for him is Al Gore's global warming documentary, "An Inconvient Truth," which Giuliani found thick with complaints but lacking real-world solutions or questioning of special interest groups blocking alternative energy developments like wind and solar power. Giuliani: "I did not detect in the movie the same zeal to take on those special interests in explaining the problem."
His California audience laughed heartily after Giuliani said terrorism festers in slow-to-develop Middle Eastern countries where women still can be stoned, prompting him to pause and clarify to the medical marijuana-tolerant crowd, "And by stoned I mean hit with rocks."
In this Silicon Valley venue Giuliani expressed his views on immigration reform with seemingly a notch less tension than his speech last Saturday in Sacramento at the CA GOP convo, where some party conservatives expect much harder calls for border closings.
"How do we keep this country open?" he said Monday, before reminding the audience of the expected U.S. population drop in 10 years. Giuliani also critiqued Western Europe's "socialized medicine" and called for solutions that preserve American health care's "genius" based on health care industry competition.
Giuliani also repeated his absolute support for California moving its primary to next Feb. 5;
"California is a state that you could regard as a microcosm of the U.S. We're all (presidential candidates) gonna have to contest in a place that's kind of similar to what we're eventually gonna have to do, which is to run in the entire country." [DAVID FINNIGAN]
David Finnigan is a freelance journalist based in California
TV continues to not only talk about Iraq, but Iran is getting more attention. There was also a good chunk of North Korea talk. Meanwhile, there were some good interviews on last night:
Pres. Bush sat down with C-SPAN's Scully.
Asked if he'll watch the House debate on Iraq: "In terms of watching the debate, I've got a lot to do -- I'm not exactly sure what hours they'll be debating, but I've got a pretty full day, I mean, like, I started this morning at 6:45 a.m. and I've had meetings up until right now. So I haven't been watching anything."
On media coverage of Iraq: "I'm wise enough not to bash the media. I would hope, however, that they would take a good look at, for example, the rest of the country outside of Baghdad and Anbar province -- at least the reports I get are people are beginning to live a normal life. If you're a correspondent in a war zone, it's a little difficult to travel around the country on a free basis. But, look, I'm not going to complain about the media."
On WH '08: "From my perspective, it is good not to have a vice president running for president. Can you imagine a vice president out there running and all of a sudden saying, well, I wouldn't have done it exactly that way, the war; when things got difficult like they are in Iraq, I told the president that he should have done it this way, he chose another way. In other words, there would be the tendency for a candidate who was associated with the president to feel like they needed to distance themselves during the tough moments, like for right now. And that would create instability inside the administration. So I don't have to deal with that. And it's going to be -- it really puts a premium on me staying completely out of the race until the nominee is chosen, and then help unify the party and do whatever the nominee wants me to do to help him get elected."
On campaign finance: "I thought the FEC ought to abolish 527s, for starters. I believe in full disclosure of any money into the political system. And we don't have it that way today yet. I just believe if somebody gives money, we need to know who they are and why they're giving it. That's not the way it is."
On his dad: "I am actually more concerned about him than I have ever been in my life, because he's paying too much attention to the news. And I understand how difficult it is for a person who loves somebody to see them out in the political process and to kind of endure the criticism. My answer to him is, look, don't pay attention to it. I'm doing fine" (2/12).
THE GUEST THAT CAN TALK ABOUT ANY TOPIC
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on how his campaign is going: "I have been very encouraged so far. I have been a candidate about three weeks. We have got thousands of volunteers, our fund-raising is going well. I visited nearly all of the early primary states. I'm going to go to Iowa next month, New Hampshire this weekend. We had a very good session at the Democratic National Committee, the cattle call. I think most everyone agreed that I gave the best speech" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/12).
Richardson was also on "AC 360" to talk about North Korea. [EMILY GOODIN]
February 12, 2007
Contact: XXX
Mitt Romney’s Campaign Misleads Voters about Senator Brownback’s Position on Abortion
"Mitt Romney’s flip flops are enough to make John Kerry blush."
Alexandria, VA – Documentation surfaced over the weekend that the Romney for President Exploratory Committee is misleading voters.
In an e-mail circulated to right-to-life leaders on February 8, 2007, a key Romney staffer wrote: "Just like Sam Brownback, Mitt was once pro-choice but changed his views upon being elected to office… When Brownback was elected to office, that is when he also had a conversion and voted with the pro-life movement."
Brownback for President National Campaign Committee Member Dr. Jack Willke, who was President of National Right to Life for ten years, responded: "Senator Brownback has always been pro-life, and has never made a statement or cast any vote to the contrary."
This false allegation by the Romney campaign comes in light of recent evidence that Romney has switched positions on abortion at least three times. Below are direct quotes from Mitt Romney on the issue of abortion:
CHRONOLOGY OF MITT ROMNEY’S ABORTION POSITIONS (IN HIS OWN WORDS):
1994: Mitt Romney was pro-choice
"I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a US Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years we should sustain and support it." (Joan Vennochi, "Romney’s Revolving World," The Boston Globe, 3/2/06)
2001: Mitt Romney was not pro-choice
"I do not wish to be labeled pro-choice." (Mitt Romney, Letter to the Editor, The Salt Lake Tribune, 7/12/01)
2002: Mitt Romney was again pro-choice
"I respect and will protect a woman’s right to choose. This choice is a deeply personal one … Women should be free to choose based on their own beliefs, not mine and not the government's." (Stephanie Ebbert, "Clarity Sought On Romney’s Abortion Stance," The Boston Globe, 7/3/05)
2007: Mitt Romney acknowledges he was "effectively pro-choice," but says he "was always for life."
January 2007: "Over the last multiple years, as you know, I have been effectively pro-choice." (Bruce Smith, "Romney Campaigns in SC with Sen. DeMint," The Associated Press, 1/29/07)
February 2007: "I am firmly pro-life… I was always for life." (Jim Davenport, "Romney Affirms Opposition to Abortion," The Associated Press, 2/9/2007
"Mitt Romney’s flip flops are enough to make John Kerry blush," Brownback for President Campaign Manager Rob Wasinger said. "It is absurd of Mitt Romney to compare himself to Senator Brownback on the right to life issue."
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
EDS: please disregard previous versions of this post. The AFL-CIO's spokesman did not suggest that the labor federation would announce its endorsement post March -- only its endorsement process. It is also not clear that the AFL-CIO will endorse any candidate before the caucuses and primaries begin.
An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.
Organization: The AFL_CIO
According to AFL-CIO spokesperson Steve Smith, they are "working out details right now" for their endorsement process for WH '08 and are likely to announce particulars of their plan in early March, following their first Executive Council Meeting since the Nov. '06 elections in Las Vegas, NV, March 6th - 8th.
Each of the 54 national and international labor unions within the AFL-CIO has their own respective endorsement processes and must be considered in forming the general AFL-CIO endorsement. [AMY DUDLEY]
Elif Wisecup is the 9th congressional district chair for "McCain for Michigan."
Her husband is Trent Wisecup, the chief of staff for Rep. Joe Knollenberg (a Romney endorsee) and the former political director for Romney's political action committee.
We hear that Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has signed veteran Democratic fundraiser Adrienne Donato to head the Illinois Senator's Texas fundraising operation. There's a lot of Dem money in those parts, be it nestled in the suburbs of Dallas or in the tonier precincts of Houston. [MARC AMBINDER]
They traveled to opposite coasts, courting reluctant base voters with pleas to accept their nuanced positionings. But Giuliani and Clinton met with varied degrees of success.
-- As Bob Reich noted 2/11 on "This Week," the Iraq war has become for the Left what abortion has long been for the Right. Perhaps no two candidates know that better than Giuliani and Clinton, whose WH'08 aspirations depend hugely on whether they can win doubters on each issue.
-- In CA, Giuliani was embraced 2/10 by conservative GOPers, the same ones who now openly rebuke his "soulmate," Gov. Schwarzenegger. Part of Rudy's appeal, ironically, is GOPers' belief that he's the anti-Hillary, the only one who can beat her. But on abortion, they're willing to accept in him (Mr. "strict constructionist") something he and Clinton share: Their need for nuance.
-- Meanwhile in NH, Clinton gave a complex response on Iraq to a man who asked for simplicity. Her problem: Her position is complex.
-- Are pro-life GOPers willing to accept nuance in '08, while antiwar Dems reject it? If so, advantage Giuliani.
Iowans, lend Mitt Romney your ears. On the even of the ex-MA Gov.'s announcement tour, the campaign has volunteer phone banks set up to tell Iowa Republicans about Romney's schedule -- and to see whether they'd yet made any commitments to a candidate. Early phone banking isn't unusual, but making a so-called "ID" call -- where the caucus-goer is asked to identify which candidate they're supporting at the moment -- is.
A Romney adviser said the callers also asked Iowans some "general questions" about issues. By combining the two types of calls, Romney's campaign avoids inundating these Republicans will too many phone calls, a tactic that might reap them some goodwill.
Romney's not the only Republican making phone calls. Ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson's campaign called to inform Republicans about Thompson's event schedule.
And paper stock from both Romney and Thompson landed in mailboxes this past week. Romney's campaign sent an informational postcard to thousands of Republicans. Thompson sent a colorful two-sided invitation to his event. (If you're a Des Moines Republican, you received an invite to his Des Moines event). For Thompson, the prospecting paid off: he drew crowds in excess of 80 -- which, for him, is a good number -- at least twice this weekend.
Who: Ex-SC first lady Iris Campbell, and son Mike Campbell
For: Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Who else courted them: Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain
Significance level: (1 to 10) 6
Background: Iris Rhodes Campbell is the wife of the late Carroll Campbell II, beloved SC governor from '87 to '94,, and before that, a critical player in the movement to make SC a must-win primary for GOP presidential candidates. Seen as a bit of a kingmaker for GOP presidential candidates. Did we mention: beloved by many rank-and-file Republicans?
Campbell was SE regional chair for George H.W. Bush's campaign in '88 and endorsed George W. Bush in '00. Son Mike Campbell lost a run-off primary bid for SC Lt. Gov. in '06.
Note that Carroll Campbell III, the couple's other son, endorsed Sen. John McCain. Also, be aware that Warren Tompkins, who is Romney's chief consultant in the state, was never a favorite of the Campbell family.
Huckabee's release notes this bit of history: "In 1980, the first South Carolina primary was held. That year the SC party established led by Sen. Strom Thurmond and former Gov. Jim Edwards supported early frontrunner, John Connelly. However, Carroll and Iris Campbell decided to support the underdog, Ronald Reagan."
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
It’s probably no coincidence that Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, Obama for America, sounds a lot like that of a former 2004 candidate’s campaign: Dean for America. That’s also likely because some of the internet masterminds from the Howard Dean’s campaign now work for Obama’s bid.
The most recent hire was announced this weekend: former Dean Web strategist Joe Rospars will be Obama’s new media director on the campaign. He joins his former colleagues from the Dean Internet staff Gray Brooks and Jim Brayton, who has directed Obama’s internet operation since his 2004 Senate campaign.
For many Democrats, Howard Dean’s 2004 Presidential campaign is synonymous with innovation in internet politics. For many practical reasons, it was also the training ground for much of the Democratic internet talent on the market for 2008. Let’s check out the rest of the Dean Class of 2004 and see where they are now: [SHIRA TOEPLITZ]
SACRAMENTO -- Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani shortened his WH ;08 announcement plans Saturday when he was asked in Sacramento, CA, if he seriously was determined to mount an '08 run.
"Yes, I am committed," Giuliani said to reporters after his 44-minute keynote speech Saturday afternoon at the CA GOP convo. Pressed in the short post-keynote press conference about when he will make a formal announcement, Giuliani jokingly said, "If you go back to my speech, I think I may have."
Giuliani's keynote speech included 18 references to the Golden State's governor-turned-president.
"I worked for Ronald Reagan."
"...Ronald Reagan is one of my heroes."
"Ronald Reagan embodied optimism."
Giuliani's almost Romney-esque attachment to the Gipper's legacy did not diminish the ability of America's favorite mayor to charm a banquet audience including some California conservatives exasperated over Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's universal health care proposal.
Giuliani did not mention abortion or other issues dividing him from the party's right wing, and his generic comments on improving health care included no specific references to Schwarzenegger's plans. His keynote's attempt at playing the God card seemed lukewarm when he said that American ideas are, "ideas that come from God," prompting applause only from about only one-third of the ballroom's 800-plus people.
By contrast Giuliani's support-our-troops line received a long, ballroom-wide standing ovation. This was followed by more stand-up applause when he slammed the Senate's non-binding resolution fight of the Iraq troop surge. "What we pay people in Washington to do is to make decisions! They can't decide this, they can't decide that," he declared.
Sources said Giuliani's private Friday night convention meeting with about 30 Republican state Assembly members found some legislators skeptical of his views on issues such as gun control and immigration. But he repeated those views in his keynote and before reporters, including his gun control platform emphasizing urban crime weapons while leaving sports hunters alone, ("I would not interfere with that,"). He sees immigration as a national security issue and would not support laws which deport and divide family members. ("You have got to deal with the people who are here"). But Arizona Minutemen likely will find little comfort in Giuliani's call for, "a highly technological" border fence rather than their pleas for an actual wall.
Schwarzenegger received some blowback from California conservatives opposed to his health care ambitions. Los Angeles accountant and Bush-Cheney '04 "Pioneer" fundraiser Bruce Bialosky said the Friday night audience for Schwarzenegger's dinner speech was, "way down. The audience was very tepid."
But such grumbling did not affect Giuliani, whose keynote speech was welcomed. '02 GOP CA GOV nominee Bill Simon introduced Giuliani and also stood off to the side at his press conference. Giuliani appeared in TV ads for Simon in that '02 campaign.
Since by his own estimate he has visited California, "about 23 times in the last year or two," Giuliani embraced the possibility the state's primary could move to Feb. 5, saying, "If California does it, it changes the whole nature of the primary."
Giuliani also spoke more boldly of his presidential apsirations Saturday such as telling reporters that when he met last week with with naval officers and sailors in San Diego. He said he told them, "I'm not the president, you don't have to tell me what I want to hear. I'd like to be be the president and then you will have to tell me what I want to hear." [DAVID FINNIGAN]
Finnigan is a freelance reporter based in California
At his first stop in Iowa as a presidential candidate, Barack Obama may have secured the support of one of the key newcomers in Iowa. Freshman Rep. Dave Loebsack, who pulled one of the bigger upsets in '06 by defeating longtime GOP Rep. Jim Leach, participated in the official program at the Obama rally. Loebsack, who hasn't endorsed in the WH '08 race didn't officially endorse Obama today, but he did introduce the person who introduced Obama.
For some, just being involved in the official program can be construed as support. We'll find out for sure if Loebsack's appearance was indeed an endorsement.
Capitol Fax Blog's Rich Miller is blogging Obama's announcement from Springfield, IL
10:43 AM – RICH MILLER: A dominant theme is Obama's speech was the discussion of generational lines. There were many references to "this" generation and a "new" generation. Yet, Obama doesn't seem to fit into any branded generation himself.
He is 45 years old- too young to be a baby boomer and too old to be a Gen Xer. Instead he is drawing on the idea of being a bridge between generations, capable of connecting the two divergent groups.
Or perhaps Obama's generational talk is meant to promote a "new" generation- a generation of change. He could talk of uniting differing groups into this new generation of transformation and challenge to the status quo.
I recognize there is a certain presumptuousness a certain audacity to this announcement. I know I haven't spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington, but I have been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change.
* 9:42 AM - RICH MILLER: The Governor just released a statement. He said that he was pleased to join many Illinoisans on this historic occasion. At the end of his statement he urged the legislature to immediately send him a bill to move the Illinois primary up to Feb 5th 2008 that will give Illinois voters the opportunity to support Barack Obama.
* 9:08 AM - RICH MILLER: Advance copies of Obama speech are now out. From a glance the broad themes appear to be: unity, bipartisanship, and ending the war. The speech quotes Lincoln and talks about his own inexperience. It also mentions the great struggles that the country has been through together and how Obama would like to bring the nation together again.
* 9:00 AM - RICH MILLER: The crowds are growing larger but still not huge. There are tons of media. The governor's people have confirmed that he will be here for the program, but he will not be speaking.
Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.
LET'S NOT GO BACK FOR SECONDS
AEI's Norm Orenstein notes that Congress "has on its plate two huge issues" -- the Iraq War and the federal budget. Although both demand immediate attention, they're too hefty to digest anytime soon. Yet "two huge" helpings on a plate often seems better than waiting a while and going back for seconds. And then there's the question of which issue to tackle first. The U.S. may be more hungry to resolve Iraq but the federal budget is an issue everyone wants to grab at for the same reasons. So which does the U.S. tackle first? Orenstein weighs the possibilities.
WHO'S UP FOR A HONEYMOON?
If you had to rank your honeymoon, what sort of factors would measure your happiness? Rather than address her own, AEI's Karlyn Bowman takes a stab at what these might be for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Dem members of Congress who seem to enjoy theirs. To name just a few -- internet privacy, downplaying CEO pay and Al Gore's standing.
IT'S GETTING LOUD IN HERE
Is it easier to hear one voice or many? That can be a tough question if the "many" refers to voices speaking in unison and the "one" is one with a tone loud enough to make others consider adjusting theirs. Although he didn't use those words, AEI's John Fortier considers President Bush's speech on Iraq and wonders how it overpowers the "cacophonous body of 535." If the answer is that such "clashing views" on the war "cannot coexist," then should they adopt new tones or redefine their roles?
ACT '74
It may be 2007 but The Heritage Foundation's Helle Dale says she feels like she's re-living 1974. If we continue going back in time, she argues, the Iraq War will escalate not just abroad but at home. Democrats, upset in 1974 with the Ford administration's pardoning of Richard Nixon, concluded it was "time to punish the new administration...". Whether or not this could ring true today is a question Dale tackles, as she considers the facts.
POST-BIRTHDAY BLUES
As GOPers and Democrats alike remembered President's Ronald Reagan's birthday last week, a new film featuring a "never-before-seen oval office interview" during his presidency debuted. The Heritage Foundation's Lee Edwards played host and took questions -- addressing a conversation that was long overdue.
THE CHEMICALS BETWEEN US
In his Daily Dispatch, Cato Institute's Sam John offers the best quotes of the week on everything from Pelosi's chemistry lesson to an Iraq attack.
Policy trumped politics at The Brookings Institution this week. Political events resume on Monday.
Ready for the Lawrence of Arabia of announcements? Hillary's opening in NH theaters? Or the GOP show? Give it up for all that and more.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Tom Vilsack’s campaign released today the names of 1,159 Iowans who have pledged to publicly support Vilsack and represent him during the Iowa caucuses. (They're "ones", in other words.)
Vilsack said he is confident that he will win Iowa despite a recent poll that placed him 4th among likely caucus goers, behind Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. He said the ranking is “very appropriate and very realistic and reasonable” from the people of Iowa.
Vilsack: “Iowans clearly want me to earn their support. They deserve a full and complete and vigorous debate. Polls are often an indication of name and notoriety and not necessarily of support at this point. What is an indication are people willing to sign cards that expressly state their intent to stand up at a caucus and appear on my behalf. I’m convinced that as time goes on, with these ‘Tom Team’ meetings that we’re having, as we travel around the state, (we’ll) continue to get more and more support from regular folks who understand and appreciate what a caucus is and the job I’ve done as governor.” [RIKI PARIKH]
A short Troika today, with staff news only. Mark Daley, a former IA Dem party comm. dir, will serve as Sen. Hillary Clinton's communications director in NH. He'll work for JoDee Winterhoff, Clinton's state director.
As state director, Nick Clemons is unquestionably a big get for Clinton in NH. (Writes James Pindell: "Due to his experience and his prominent political family, Clemons is the biggest New Hampshire "get" who had not yet signed with a candidate." Still, a prominent New Hampshire Dem who isn't yet supporting any candidate e-mailed us with some local perspective: "I don’t think his appointment will impress the grassroots/rabble. And [a friend] laughed at the ‘intensive search’ description. Clinton and Nick got where they are through nepotism – Nick’s mother is a state rep." That she is -- she's a very prominent, powerful Nashua Dem. But Clemons has credentials: his first presidential campaign experience was based in Nashua: he was the city field dir. for Al Gore's '00 presidential bid, working under Nick Baldick, a very senior aide to John Edwards.
EX-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), fresh on the heels of announcing Iowa endorsements and a campaign manager who can raise money (Chip Saltzman), today received the endorsements of of ex-Manchester GOP cmte chair Cliff Hurst, and ex-NH state school board member Fred Bamante. We're not obsessed with money, but it would be more comforting to fans of the AR governor if he released the names of some GOP donors who're supporting him.
And Obama is sold out in NH -- again. Brian "Cosmo" Lawson e-mails us: "Lundholm Gymnasium, which is where the event is taking place [at UNH], has a capacity of 3,500 people."
Iowa Politics-- Iowapolitics.com has partnered up with Drake University to launch a series of brownbag discussions on IA's "role in the presidential selection process." The sessions will include: significant candidates, elected officials, party leaders, campaign organizers, pollsters, pundits and the Drake community.
JohnCombest.com -- KC Star: Stampede looms for early '08 primaries
The RNC this morning calls Sen. Barack Obama a "Dem Dodger" for declining to appear at an AFSCME-sponsored candidate forum in Nevada.
A few points of context:
1. WHAT'S HAPPENING IN NEVADA ... IS NOT A DEBATE. The candidates will not appear on stage at the same time.
2. It's hard to find a Democrat in this world who believes that AFSCME will endorse anyone other that Sen. Hillary Clinton, owing to AFSCME pres. Gerald McEntee's ties with the Clinton family.
That said, onto the oppo:
The sub-headings of the RNC release include:
Forum Flight Reinforces Obama’s Tight Bubble:
Suspicions Are Growing That Obama “Doesn’t Have Much To Say”:
On Sunday, Bill Richardson’s home state newspaper, The Albuquerque Journal , will run the fourth installment of a five-part biographical series about the New Mexico governor.
Titled High Ambition, this fascinating series is the product of months of research by reporters Leslie Linthicum and Thomas J. Cole. The first three segments provide a revealing look at Richardson’s boyhood in Mexico City and his rise to power; there is plenty of evidence to suggest Richardson might make an extremely attractive general election candidate.
At first, it’s hard not to notice the similarities between Richardson and, if you can believe it, John Kerry. Both had well-traveled, internationalist fathers who were reserved and emotionally distant; both attended blue-blood, East Coast prep schools where they perceived themselves to be outsiders; both followed their fathers to elite Northeastern universities; both began their political careers with unsuccessful, carpet-bagging congressional bids.
But unlike Kerry, whose burning ambition and calculating ways rubbed people the wrong way at every stop in his life from prep school to the Senate, the equally ambitious Richardson seems to have attained at least grudging respect from those who failed to succumb to his considerable charm.
Stylistically, the candidate Richardson most clearly resembles is Bill Clinton. Like Clinton, he is a force-of-nature candidate—a smart, physical politician with prodigious retail campaigning skills, comfortable in front of almost any audience. [CHARLES MAHTESIAN]
The death of Anna Nicole Smith dominated TV coverage last night. There were a few updates on the congressional action on Iraq and the Scooter Libby trial:
FNC's Garrett: "Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, checkmated by Republicans, has all but given up on symbolic moves to oppose the president's Iraq troop surge. Fox News has learned Reid will tap Democrat Edward Kennedy to lead party efforts block the surge with binding legislation" ("Special Report," 2/8).
CNN's Bash: "House Democrats announced their Iraq resolution will be simple and straightforward: Congress supports the troops, but opposes the president's plan to send 21,500 more of them to Iraq" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/8).
NBC's Viqueira: "House Democrats will over three days next week put a resolution on the floor that would be very simple. Simply expressing opposition to the president's policy of sending 21,000 more troops into Baghdad and Iraq. They will contain nothing on funding for the troops" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/8).
MNSBC's Shuster: "The defense really went hard at Tim Russert. At one point they even thundered at Tim Russert saying, only answer the questions we ask you, OK? They went after the fact that Russert didn't keep notes. They went after the idea that Tim couldn't remember what day of the week the conversation with Scooter Libby really was" ("Hardball," 2/8).
CNN's Todd: "The tables turn on one of the toughest interviewers in the news business. NBC's Tim Russert appears nervous on the stand as Lewis 'Scooter' Libby's lead attorney points out Russert's perceived inconsistencies, asking why Russert willingly talked to an FBI agent about his key conversation with Libby, then tried to avoid testifying about that conversation to a grand jury because he believed it was confidential. Russert says his contact with the agent and his testimony were separate and distinct. Russert stiffens when the defense points he and his colleagues at NBC couldn't get their stories straight about who among them knew administration critic Joe Wilson's wife worked at the CIA and when they knew it" ("Situation Room," 2/8).
FNC's Herridge: "The defense will begin its case on Monday when they're expected to call other journalists including one of Russet's co-workers, NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell. Her lawyer is fighting to keep her out of court" ("Special Report," 2/8). [EMILY GOODIN]
Sen. Hillary Clinton has chosen NH Dem Party exec. dir Nick Clemons as her state director, capping off an intensive search-and-interview process by snagging the most in-demand operative in the state.
In 2006, Clemons supervised the political and field operation that helped Democrats take over both New Hampshire legislative chambers and gain control of its two House seats. He’s in near-daily contact with key county chairs, and knows all the major organizers.
Many New Hampshire Democrats loyal to Clinton were active in the party more than a dozen years ago, and others have migrated to opposing campaigns. Clemons brings both youth and experience, an eagle’s eye for talent, and an insider’s perspective on more recent elections in the state.
Kathy Sullivan, the departing NH Dem chair, would not address a question about Clemons’ departure. But asked about his talents, she called him “the best executive director in the country.”
“It is also no secret that any presidential candidate who was able to lure him away would be very, very, very lucky to have him,” she said.
Clemons served as the Kerry-Edwards state director in New Hampshire during 2004. He was Sen. John Kerry’s field director during the primaries, competing with former Dean state director Karen Hicks. Hicks is now the Clinton campaign’s national field director. Both Hicks and Clemons worked for ex-NH Gov. Jeanne Shaheen; Clemons was her field director in '00 and '02.
Clinton is due in New Hampshire this weekend. Clemons did not immediately respond to an e-mail seeking his comments. [MARC AMBINDER]
If Gov. Bill Richardson became president, what sort of goals would he prioritize? At The Center for Strategic and International Studies earlier today, an audience of Washingtonians received a sneak preview.
The best of his talking points:
-- Encourage Diplomacy: He reasoned: "American policy is dominated more by dogma than by facts. The administration has... emboldened our enemies, isolated us from our friends. We must work with our enemies and everybody in-between...power without diplomacy is blind."
-- Always Negotiate: Referring to JFK's statement on fear, Richardson said America must "never negotiate out of fear but never fear to negotiate."
-- Persuade Our Enemies: "I know that even bad guys will listen to you when you hold a carrot in one hand a stick in the other." [SARAH LOVENHEIM]
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
With such an extensive list of presidential hopefuls, how possible is it for an '08er to appear a maverick? Hotline senior editor John Mercurio notes several Americans are "seeing double" or "even triple" when they examine the playing field. If that's the case, then how can any hopeful improve his image?
Jon Ralston reports Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) will skip the 2/21 Carson City Dem forum, and will actually be in IA on that date. Obama will be in NV a few days earlier, however, on 2/18.
Three recent stories have worked their way up the media food-chain to cause big Dem headaches. They say a lot about how news is made these days. But they also should instruct WH '08ers as they prepare rapid-response shops.
-- Pelosi's plane: Only last p.m. did Pelosi give her side of this story, which moved from Drudge into the mainstream 2/7 (and first made Hotline, 2/5). She said her "criticism" of the Iraq war (and her gender?) caused the Pentagon leaks. Regardless of its merits, the damage is done; "Pelosi One" fits the GOP caricature and will surely become a standard attack line.
-- Edwards bloggers: Bloggers hate paralysis, and candidates who hire full-time bloggers have to deal with a paper trail. This a.m., Edwards stood behind Marcotte and McEwen, but what took so long?
-- Pelosi and Edwards could learn from Obama's response to the new-media firestorm he faced on the madrassa rumors. Obamaland looked paralyzed ... for about 1/2 a news cycle, but then became the victim. Aided by a story that fell apart, they still hit back hard. Speed trumps accuracy, particularly for the candidate getting attacked.
Sen. John Edwards' camnpaign released a statement about the blogger controversy (finally!), including the following remarks from Edwards and bloggers Amanda Marcotte and Melissa McEwen:
Edwards, on McEwen and Marcotte: “The tone and the sentiment of some of Amanda Marcotte's and Melissa McEwen's posts personally offended me... it's not how I expect the people who work for me to talk to people... that kind of intolerant language will not be permitted from anyone on my campaign, whether it's intended as satire, humor, or anything else."
He continues: "But I also believe in giving everyone a fair shake. I've talked to Amanda and Melissa; they have both assured me that it was never their intention to malign anyone's faith, and I take them at their word. We're beginning a great debate about the future of our country, and we can't let it be hijacked.”
Marcotte: “My writings on my personal blog, Pandagon on the issue of religion are generally satirical in nature and always intended strictly as a criticism of public policies and politics... I am sorry if anyone was personally offended by writings meant only as criticisms of public politics.”
McEwen, on what she wrote in her blog, Shakespeare's Sister: " I certainly don't expect Senator Edwards to agree with everything I've posted... It has never been my intention to disparage people's individual faith, and I'm sorry if my words were taken in that way.”
Amid all the debate about the role Mitt Romney's religion will play in '08, it's worth noting that ID's non-Mormon senator (Larry Craig) has endorsed Mitt Romney, while the state's Mormon senator (Mike Crapo) apparently remains neutral for now.
Sen. John McCain plans his first 2007 visit to Iowa next weekend, and there's scuttlebutt about plans for a New Hampshire and South Carolina trip around the same time. Is McCain preparing to announce his presidential candidacy (formally, offiically, and, uh, again) that week, the same week that Gov. Mitt Romney (formally, officially, and, sigh, again) announces?)
No. It's just a "normal trip," we are assured. Cindy McCain will headline the NH trip; John will appear in South Carolina, as well as Iowa. McCain still plans to announce-announce-announce in the early spring.
West Virginia Democrats are going against the grain. They're calculating that the Democratic presidential nomination calender will produce a delegate horse race, and by the time their primary rolls around -- May 6 -- that the Democratic candidates will court the state with an ardor normally reserved for IA or NH.
Today, the party will submit its delegate selection plan to the DNC's rules and bylaws committee. It calls for the formal election of delegates to be held even later -- in June. Candidates will recieve delegates based on the proportion of the vote they get in the primary. "In this race, with the people that are running, it’s very possible that Feb. 5 will just throw things into more of a tailspin," says Tom Vogel, the party's exec. dir. Under the DNC's bonus delegate system, which was instituted to encourage states to hold their primaries later, West Virginia now gets 39 spaces at the Democratic National Convention, up from 37. As we've reported, the WV Republicans are taking the opposite tack. They've decided to hold a complicated Internet primary. Delegate selection begins -- this isn't a typo -- this summer.
Squibs:
The Washington Post asks whether Sen. Hillary Clinton will disclose her campaign bundlers. The answer, we presume, will be "yes," but the campaign isn't saying anything just yet. (Check out ABC's Tahman Bradley's attempt to get Sen. Clinton to say something.)
A Clinton spokesman tells the Hotline: "We're going to comply with the law." And that law doesn't require bundler disclosure.
Mitt Romney was endorsed by Sens. Larry Craig (R-ID) and Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT). Sen. John McCain was endorsed by Rep. Christopher Shays (R-CT). [MARC AMBINDER]
The Iraq debate continues in the halls of Congress and on your TV screens:
CNN's Bash: "It's now clear the Senate will not vote on Iraq anytime soon, but the debate is as heated as ever. Not about the president's Iraq policy or plan, but about who should pay the political price for the Senate deadlock" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/7).
Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA): "We're doing everything that we can, and quite frankly, over the last couple of weeks, we worked pretty closely with a number of Republicans, as you know, to try to get language that would be acceptable to both parties."
More: "I don't think they want a vote and I think they know they will lose a vote. But, quite frankly, ending this war is more important than embarrassing a president" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/7).
THE PLANE, THE PLANE
Speaker Nancy Pelosi was on "On the Record" and discussed the airplane controversy:
Pelosi: "This is about transportation. It's not about a plane. Myself, I wish I didn't have to have so much security, because I like my freedom of mobility, but being, second in line of succession, and since 9/11, Mr. Hastert had that transportation provided. ... It's their call as to what security is needed for the speaker of the House, and they requested that. Where the misrepresentations and mischaracterizations came from, I don't know, perhaps the Defense Department, because I've been one of their critics. But I'll say this, I know it didn't come from the president of the United States. Because he has been, if anything, very definite in saying to me, you need to have the security you have."
FNC's Van Susteren: "It's about the size of the plane. I think that's what the dispute was."
Pelosi: "It was the distance."
Van Susteren: "You're from California, we can't do anything about that. ... And Speaker Hastert was Illinois, the mid-part of the country."
Pelosi: "That's right."
Asked if she asked for a particular sized plane, Pelosi: "No."
More Pelosi: "They told me the first day that I was supposed to go that I couldn't make it across the country. And I said well, that's fine, I'm going commercial. ... I'm not asking to go on that plane. If you need to take me there for security purposes, you're going to have to get a plane that goes across the country, because I'm going home to my family. ... I'm happy to go commercial. But they want me to go on this plane, so the issue was distance, not size. And again, it's not about having a plane. It's about having transportation. These planes are used for other purposes in between trips, which are, you know, take place once or twice a week, going or coming. So, it isn't about that. But there are probably those in the Department of Defense who are not happy with my criticism of Secretary Rumsfeld, the war in Iraq, other waste, fraud and abuse in the Defense Department and I guess this is their way of making their voices heard. But it has nothing to do, as I say, with the president of the United States. He has encouraged my having the security I need" (FNC, 2/7).
THE TRUTHINESS WILL SET YOU FREE
MSNBC's Matthews: "Scooter Libby complained 'what the hell is going on 'Hardball?' What was going on in 'Hardball' was the pursuit of the truth."
MSNBC's Shuster: "Tim Russert testified that during the course of this phone call, Libby said, 'what the hell is going on with 'Hardball?' I'm tired of hearing my name. What is going on? What is going on is not true. Russert then testified, and this is the key to the case against Scooter Libby, he testified that at no point during this conversation did he ever discuss Valerie Wilson" ("Hardball," 2/7).
FNC's Wilson: "For those who don't know, Tim Russert is in crutches because he tripped over his dog Buster" ("Special Report," 2/7).
Newsweek's Wolffe: "What you have here is an extraordinary picture of senior officials who came into this trial saying that they were overwhelmed with national security concerns, and, in fact, they're obsessing about Chris Matthews and Tim Russert and NBC" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/7). [EMILY GOODIN]
A very good catch by the Politico's Ken Vogel, who was tipped by the FEC to an Obama campaign request for an advisory opinion about the public financing system.
Here's the rub:
Obama has decided to reject the federal matching funds for the primary. He's going to start raising money in increments of $4600, of which $2300 would be shunted to his general election -- that's post-convention -- account.
An Obama adviser explains the question this way: is there any way, post-convention, that Obama could return the money he's raised for the general and accept the general election match? If you've let the horse out of the barn, can you shove him back in?
Bottom line: Obama's decided to opt out of the primary. He wants to preserve the option of opting back in for the general election -- if he can. But as of today, the campaign has started to raise money in $4600 chunks. Unless the FEC says otherwise, he'll fund his general election campaign -- should he be so fortunate as to get the nomination --himself.
What's more striking to us is that the open-sourced, non-traditional, non-consultant-driven populist campaign of Sen. John Edwards has walled themselves off from the rest of the world.
What's driving the blogosphere's response, right now, is the uncertainty...
The controversy surrounding past criticism of the Catholic Church by progressive Pandagon blogger Amanda Marcotte is shaping into a make or break moment for John Edwards young campaign.
Already on the defensive from his netroots base for “hawkish” rhetoric on Iran, if Edwards relents to MSM pressure to fire Marcotte, his lefty blogger credibility will be destroyed.
In a 12/18 post called “The Bar Fight Primary” MyDD’s Matt Stoller wrote: “The way to gain my support in 2008 is to show that in a bar fight, your sympathies are with liberals and are set against the bullies that have been running the country for so long. You can run on anything you want, you can talk of unifying the country or any sort of conventional wisdom chatter. … But you have to speak on some critical point, some piece of entrenched power, and promise that you are going to gore that conservative ox.”
Todayt, Stoller makes clear Marcotte is Edwards first “bar fight” moment. Fellow MyDDer Chris Bowers asks Edwards: “Are you willing to point out the double standards and hypocrisy behind this story, or will you cave to even the mildest pressure from the Republican Noise Machine?”
But Bowers also sees opportunity for Edwards: “Whether he stands up or backs down will be a turning point for his campaign online. Either way, he won't be tied with Barack Obama in Dailykos straw polls anymore. It will be hard in one direction or the other.”
Daily Kos diarist wilbur also sees “an extraordinary opportunity” and urges Edwards to “rally the netroots troops and hit back hard.”
If Edwards understood what he was doing when he hired Marcotte, he must follow the advice of Bowers and Wilbur. When Edwards hired Marcotte he signed up to a hard hitting unapologetic movement, a movement whose rhetoric is, shall we say, not always appreciated in the mainstream. If he backs off the ethos now, he can kiss their support away forever.
Appropos of our earlier post about Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's 2/15 attempt to showcase his ties to Massachusetts Republicans, Hotline contributor Kevin F. Rennie adds this following:
The power of embarrassment is often underestimated in political circles. The McCain campaign knows its worth.
Expect the Arizona senator’s presidential operation to snag endorsements from a gaggle of the tiny Massachusetts Republican legislative caucus. One insider says some of the GOP legislators were very impressed with McCain when they met with him last fall. That meeting miffed Mitt. The governor and his wife then sent generous contributions to Republican incumbents (of which there are few).
Massachusetts Republican party treasurer Brent Andersen says there’s “quite a bit of support for Senator McCain” in the commonwealth. The Auburn conservative is among the McCain people. He’s also one of the many “Republicans turned off by the jokes Governor Romney makes about Massachusetts when he’s in the South and Midwest.”
Andersen, whose been the party treasurer for the past 5 years, says Romney gets credit for raising a lot of money, but he was “totally unsuccessful” at party building. There are fewer registered Republicans in the state now than when Romney was elected, Anderson points out. “Some party people feel he abandoned the party.” [KEVIN F. RENNIE]
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney spoke to the Detroit Economic Club today, giving the first rendition of his economic policy proposals.
Often a popular podium for Presidents and candidates alike to spout their economic policies, then TX-Gov. George W. Bush gave a speech there in February of 2000 – right after the South Carolina and just before the Michigan primary. The budget was then in surplus, remember? Said Bush: "The role of government is not to create wealth, but to create an environment in which entrepreneurship can flourish, in which small businesses can become large businesses, in which people who dream about owning something in America can realize that dream if they're willing to work hard and take risks."
Said Romney today: "We put our trust in the American people and the free enterprises American people create," he said. "If government is too big, it slows down innovation and entrepreneurs."
Romney is playing to his strength here. And although Romney doesn’t give a specific number on, say, controversial CAFE standards in his speech, he does say how he’s going to figure it out: he's going to employ his trademark data collection approach that helped him “Turnaround” Bain, the Olympics and the MA govt.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Sources close to Sen. Barack Obama's campaign tell the Hotline that the Illinois senator has decided to opt out of the public financing system for both the nomination fight and the general election.
Obama joins Sen. Hillary Clinton, Ex-Sen. John Edwards, Sen. John McCain and Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney in deciding to forgo the federal matching funds.
Also today: In the wake of a Wall Street Journal article suggesting Clinton will raise in excess of $30 million this quarter, Clinton's campaign plans to float a much lower figure -- $15 million. That's hard to square with the public ebullience of some of her chief fundraisers.
The first quarter of fundraising matters more for Clinton than for Obama in this way: a lower-than-expected first quarter will partially derail the inevitability train that's carrying her to Denver. We’d ask: “Where did the vaunted fundraising machine go?” “Do Democratic donors not expect her to win?”
By comparison, Obama is just getting started. He'll raise a bunch this quarter -- though John Edwards could raise more -- but he'll need to sustain his pace in the second quarter in order to avoid questions about his financial viability. On the other hand, perhaps we're falling for spin -- and perhaps Obama will outraise 'em all. But we don't think so, at the moment.
One final money point to remember: Raising early money costs a lot of money, too, and the rate of return, at first, isn't that great. Obama doesn't have a strong donor base, although his campaign is building one rapidly, and the grassroots swell of support, if it exists, may take a few months to get rolling. [MARC AMBINDER]
During his FNC interview this week, Rudy Giuliani promoted the number of candidates he's campaigned for around the country. Energizer bunny he may be, but . ... According to our Election Scorecards of GOV, SEN and House races, Rudy-backed candidates went a combined 32-43 in '02, '04 and '06. And just yesterday, the NY state Senate candidate he endorsed lost as well. Of course, even Rudy couldn't save GOPers last November. And were it not for him, NYers might be calling Mark Green, not Mike Bloomberg, Mr. Mayor.
By our count, Ex-Sen. John Edwards's presidential campaign is paying more than a half dozen political consultants (media, polling, communications, fundraising, Internet) to.... well, do nothing of substance, according to Edwards himself. And he writes his own speeches, so the campaign doesn't apparently need a speechwriter.
MyDD's Jonathan Singer scored the Edwards interview that produced this gem of an exchange:
Singer: Realistically, you're going to have consultants on your campaign.
Edwards: Not doing much.
Singer: I mean there are going to be polls taken…
Edwards: Sure. My pollster doesn't… I decide what I'm going to say. The speech I gave today – I wrote it. Nobody else wrote it. I have to admit that we did have a speech written that I didn't give. I gave my speech. And that's what I do now. Anything that matters I do it myself.
I had a town hall meeting in New Hampshire Wednesday and I talked and answered questions, and every word that came out of my mouth was just me. Nobody told me what to say or suggested what I should say. I don't do that anymore.
Singer: Expanding on that, inherently in a campaign you're giving a stump speech, though and you get into a rhythm
Edwards: That's true. But where does the stump speech come from is part of it. Every word of my stump speech came from me. Every word. Nobody has written a stump speech for me. Every word came from me – the one I'm doing now.
There's a slang term in the corporate world that many start-up businesses view as the Holy Grail. It's called the "hockey stick moment" -- the point in a graph where a company's profits skyrocket from being comfortable but flat (like the face of the hockey stick) to a peak (like the handle of the hockey stick). Business leaders often don't realize their enterprise has hit that moment until after it's happened.
A number of presidential candidates have experienced hockey stick moments, including Jimmy Carter in 1976, George H.W. Bush in 1980, Gary Hart in 1984, both Ross Perot and Bill Clinton in 1992, John McCain in 2000 and Howard Dean in 2004.
As these examples show, hockey stick moments don't necessarily last; in some cases, they form another hockey stick on the line graph that heads in the wrong direction (e.g., Perot and Hart). But the one thing all of these "hockey stick" candidates have in common is that they burst on the political scene out of nowhere to become either the establishment candidate of their party (e.g., Clinton, Bush and Carter) or a big scare for the establishment (e.g., Dean and McCain).
This cycle, each party's presidential primary field has one establishment candidate -- New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democrats and McCain for the Republicans -- and a number of hockey stick hopefuls.
Three of these contenders are formalizing their candidacies this week or next. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) made his campaign more official on Monday with the decision to file formal papers [PDF]. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) will announce his candidacy formally on Saturday, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will announce his bid next Tuesday.
These three candidates have establishment-like characteristics, but in order to surpass Clinton or McCain, they'll need to get hot enough to see a hockey stick-like rise in their poll numbers. That's very hard to plan. Of the three, Romney is best positioned to have a moment like this because the expectations he starts with are quite low. Even small movements in the polls (starting with single digits and then onto double digits) can be taken as momentum. [CHUCK TODD]
With apologies to our friends at ABC's The Note, there's a fairly glaring omission in their analysis today of Sen. Hillary Clinton's financial prowess. Money matters... but
The candidate that raised the most in the primary (Dean) didn't get the nomination and the candidate that spent the most in the general lost (Kerry). And Kerry outraised Bush from Jan. of 04 through the conventions.
It's impressive that HRC's able to get 400 of her closest friends to sit for a few hours and listen to campaign strategy. But what about Mitt Romney's ability to convince 450 of his closest friends to spend an entire day raising money for him? Or John McCain's stealthy cultivation of Bush mega-donors? Or the Democratic Party's ability to find a small donor base to replace soft money?
Here's another truth: the second quarter of this year matters more than the first quarter, we think.
TV last night was mostly about the astronaut charged with attempted murder. But there was a lot of talk about the action (or non-action) in Congress regarding the nonbinding resolutions on Iraq:
FNC's Garrett: "Dismayed at the Senate stalemate over Iraq, House Democrats reversed course today and said they would no longer wait to debate a resolution opposing the president's new Iraq strategy" ("Special Report," 2/5).
CNN's Bash: "The Senate now appears unlikely to vote any time soon on the president's plan to send more troops to Iraq" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/6).
Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell: "This is a debate we would like to have. ... In the Senate, it's customary for the minority to be treated respectfully and to have at least several different proposals considered. Senator Reid and I have been in negotiation over the last few days trying to narrow down the various proposals that would be considered. As we speak tonight, we've come down to one proposal, the proposal offered by Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, that would put the Senate on record as favoring funding support for the troops in Iraq. Unfortunately, the majority leader is objecting, so it appears as if we're going forward here, if we go forward, without the minority having any amendments at all" ("NewsHour," PBS, 2/6).
Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO): "The fact of the matter is that we should have a vote on whether or not there is a support for the president's plan to escalate the war by sending in 21,500 additional troops. Senator Reid has been imminently fair with the Republican Party by allowing two Republican resolutions to go forward, the McCain resolution as well as the Warner resolution. And so at the end of the day, this is simply whether or not the Republican majority wants to block a vote on the most basic question facing America, and that is whether or not we should escalate the military effort in Iraq by 21,500 troops, in reality almost 48,000 troops, over the next year as the president is doing right now" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/6).
WashingtonPost.com's Cillizza: "It's really a parliamentary game at this point, and frankly, I think the American people are looking to the Senate to do something. It's funny to say that passing a nonbinding resolution would mean doing
something. But in the situation we're in, it would" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/6).
SHUSTER EXPLAINS IT ALL
MSNBC's Shuster, on the testimony at the Scooter Libby trial: "If you think that is confusing ... you can only imagine what the jury may be thinking about Scooter Libby's logic. And that's why the defense has some awfully tough decisions they've got to make now in the days ahead when the defense phase of this case takes over. And Scooter Libby has to decide whether he wants to try to explain all of this from the witness stand and also enlist the help of Vice President Cheney" ("Hardball," 2/6). [EMILY GOODIN]
Here's a small preview of the message you'll hear from Gov. Mitt Romney next week when he announces his presidential candidacy.
Michigan is, yes, the state where his father served for three terms as governor. The Henry Ford museum in Dearborn is dedicated to, yes, Henry Ford. But its exhibits recount the economic, social and political history of American manufacturing. That industry is dying. Michigan's economy is lagging. America might one day wake up to find that China and India.... Well, you get the idea.
Two buzzwords: "Innovation" and "change."
Romney will introduce himself as the president who can see around the next corner, who will equip Americans to meet the competitive challenges of the 21st century, who will bring innovation and reform to government.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
It's contained in a letter that McCain's campaign distributed to their support list today.
Writing on McCain's behalf, Sen. Trent Lott hopes you'll join him in pausing to reflect on the legacy of "this inspirational American leader. Ronald Reagan inspired John and me to service, and we were, and remain today, proud foot-soldiers in the Reagan Revolution."
More, from Lott: "John knows firsthand the power a visionary and optimistic leader like Ronald Reagan can wield. During his time as a prisoner of war, stories of Governor Reagan and his loving wife, Nancy, spread through the Vietnamese prison camps, giving hope to John and others that their pride in America was not misplaced. Today, as we again face difficult times at home and abroad, we must remember Ronald Reagan's unyielding confidence that America is the greatest instrument for good in the world. While our freedom and democracy is still challenged, John McCain knows that our resolve, like Ronald Reagan's, must remain steadfast."
Home is where the heart is. Unless you're a Massachusetts Republican; home is where your headaches are.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney left office in January unpopular with most Democrats and at odds with a part of the state GOP power base. But the upper echelon of the party, led by new chair Peter Torkildson, are fans.
So on Friday, Feb. 15, Romney will hold a major fundraiser in Boston. The guests will be as many Republican officials and office-holders as possible, from hamlet councils to city councils to state representatives. A Romney aidem in confirming the event, called it a "show of force." The press corps has also been invited.
The fissures in the party are real enough, but If the right people turn up, the pull of the Romney bandwagon will be too strong to resist. And if the right people (and they know who they are) don't show up, Romney's got a problem back home. [MARC AMBINDER]
Update: it'll be two days after he formally "announces."
Which WH '08 GOPer is wrapping himself deepest in Ronald Reagan's mantle? The only mention of Reagan on John McCain's Web site appears within a single speech, given 11/16/06 to GOPAC (although he references Reagan 10 times in the speech.) Rudy Giuliani's site includes 5 distinct mentions of Reagan. The most "Reagan-y" site probably belongs to Mitt Romney, which includes 8 different Reagan references (counting a Boston Globe article as one mention).
Hillary Clinton has confirmed she'll attend the NV Dem candidate forum 2/21 in Carson City, sources say. Six other '08 Dems (Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Mike Gravel, Tom Vilsack, Wes Clark and Chris Dodd) have already agreed to attend the AFSCME-sponsored event. No word from John Edwards and Barack Obama yet. (An Obama spokesman said they're still working out its schedule for that week).
Last week, reps from the Clinton, Obama and Edwards camps urged the DNC to cut down on the number of debates. There are currently more than a dozen scheduled to date, and most camps have received invites to more than 20 other forums. [JOHN MERCURIO]
1. He enters the race more admired; and, not only more admired, more-liked than any presidential candidate since Eisenhower. His national poll ratings do not simply reflect name recognition. They reflect the intrinsic bond that Giuliani formed with the country in the days after 9/11.
2. His resume is thicker than some of his fellow Republican candidates and not as expansive as some of the others. But being the mayor of New York City, presiding over and taming a mammoth bureaucracy, arguably fortified him with more executive experience than the governors of two dozen states. (How many states have fewer than 7 million people?) Massachusetts and Arkansas, for two.
3. More than any other Republican candidate, he would expand the 2008 electoral map. New Jersey would certainly be, for the first time, really, competitive. New Hampshire wouldn't be a sure thing for Democrats. Either would Pennsylvania or Michigan. Independents might re-defect from the Democratic Party.
4. He's pro-choice and pro-gay rights. So is a good chunk of the GOP's donor base, who fret mainly about taxes and government regulation.
5. "I'm pro choice." "I favor domestic partnerships." You be may pro-life, and you might not favor expanded civil rights for gay couples, but you will have no doubt, when introduced to Rudy Giuliani, where he stands on those issues. On the other hand, you may be confused by someone who says he prefers "strict constructionist" judges and who also endorses Roe v. Wade and Lawrence V. Texas.
6. About 30 percent of the Republican primary base is pro-choice and open to supporting some gay rights initiatives. The rest of the base is pro-life, but only about half -- about 30 percent in total -- are pro-life voters. Assuming he gets the majority of GOP moderates, a little less than half of the ideological conservatives, and only 20 percent of the hard-core moral conservatives, he could do well in the Iowa caucuses.
7. The Ames Straw poll will be, obviously, a barometer of the Giuliani team's organizational strength in Iowa. It will also test Giuliani's baseline credibility. The latter is important; the former is more important.
8. Fox News seems to be in love with "America's Mayor," as they call him. That's an unalloyed good. Liberals will recall the "Pre 9/11 Rudy" and charges of racial insensitivity and his mercurial, imperious personality. The more liberals attack Giuliani, the more comfortable conservatives will feel about him.
9. Rudy Giuliani will never get the endorsement ofTony Perkins, or James Dobson, or Richard Land, or Rod Parsley. Therefore, he won't have to pander to them, and he can focus his time and energy on finding Republicans who can vote for him.
10. "Can Rudy win the nomination?" is a good question. "What does Rudy need to do to win the general election?" is a better question. [MARC AMBINDER]
Quorum Report -- Bush Plan To Slow Safety Net Spending Could Affect Texas
Sayfie's Review -- Times: Romney Heeds Call Of Florida; Primary Seen As Contest Between Crist And Bush; McCain Advisor Says Gallagher Supporters Going To Romney
WisPolitics.com-- Government Worker Accused Of Threatening coworkers
WHICH Oscar-nominated former Vice President recently initiated a conversation with a prominent New Hampshire Democrat who remains uncommitted to any presidential candidate?
WHICH newly-announced Republican presidential candidate, whose admiration for John Roberts, Sam Alito and Antonin Scalia calmes conservative nerves, praised liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg in a similar manner? A conservative broadcaster/blogger got his hands on the July '05 tape....
Asked if he should be congratulated or consoled: "A little of both, but mostly congratulations. It's wonderful thing to be, you know, organizing and putting together. And it's a little -- very humbling to think that running for president of the United States is a kid from Brooklyn. It's quite a step."
More: "We still have to formally announce it and do a few more things. But this is about as close as you're going to get."
On critics saying he's too different from the GOP: "I don't think anyone has campaigned much more than I have for Republican candidates, going back to 1998. I mean, I've been in 45 states on behalf of 200 candidates, all Republicans. Sometimes differences on issues here and there, but the same basic philosophy of strong foreign policy, being on offense against terrorism, smaller government, lower taxes. And in my case, those are things that I did."
More: "Those are very conservative. And on the issues where, you know, sometimes -- of course there are disagreements. I mean, you never agree with any one candidate 100 percent."
On where he stands on abortion: "Where I stand on abortion is, I oppose it. I don't like it. I hate it. I think abortion is something that, as a personal matter, I would advise somebody against. However, I believe in a woman's right to choose. I think you have to ultimately not put a woman in jail for that, and I think ultimately you have to leave that to a disagreement of conscience and you have to respect the choice that somebody makes. So what I do say to conservatives, because then, you know, you want to look at, well, OK, what can we look to that is similar to the way we think? I think the appointment of judges that I would make would be very similar to, if not exactly the same as, the last two judges that were appointed."
More: "I don't think you have a litmus test. But I do think you have sort of a general philosophical approach that you want from a justice, and I think a strict constructionist would be probably the way I'd describe it."
On partial-birth abortion ban: "If it doesn't have a provision for the life of the mother, then I wouldn't support the legislation. If it has provision for the life of the mother, then I would support it."
On gay marriage: "Marriage should be between a man and a woman. Here's exactly the position I've always had. And I feel the same way about it today that I did eight, 10 years ago when I signed the domestic partnership legislation: Marriage should be between a man and a woman. It should remain that way. ... I thought the best answer was domestic partnership as a way of dealing with that, so that you're recognizing the rights of people who are gay and lesbian and protect them. But marriage should remain between a man and a woman."
Asked who's the bigger Yankee fan, him or HRC: "Well, we could do a debate on Yankee trivia and find out."
On the Dem candidates: "I think they're all, you know, worthy people, and they're all people that are going to fight it out for the Democratic nomination. And I haven't the foggiest idea which one's going to win. Right now, it looks like Hillary."
On the GOPers: "Very good men, all very, very good men, very worthy men, very good men."
More: "I'm in this to win" (FNC, 2/5).
MORE TAXES, NO WORRY
John Edwards was in the "Situation Room":
Asked if his raising taxes comment would hurt him: "My view is that the single most important characteristic of the next president of the United States is somebody who's decent and honest with the country. No one can propose universal health care and say they can pay for it without doing anything to the tax structure. That is not the truth. And I think the American people deserve and are entitled to the truth, that I suspect the will be other Democratic candidates as we go forward who will follow the lead that I've put out there today and will come forward with their own universal health care plan. And if they contend that they can pay for it leaving the tax cuts and the tax structure exactly as it is, I don't believe that's true. And we'll have to hear what they have to say" (CNN, 2/5).
TV GETS ITS SENATE COVERAGE IN ORDER
And there was a lot of action on TV about the action on the Senate floor:
MSNBC's Scarborough: "Republicans killed the debate over this resolution that was offered up by one of the president's former top allies in the Senate, GOP senator John Warner. But even John Warner himself fell meekly in line with the rest of the Republican minority, killing any Senate floor debate about the president's surge that most Republicans oppose" ("Scarborough Country," 2/5).
FNC's Garrett: "Democrats say all of this is an elaborate Republican charade to filibuster an important debate on the Iraq war resolution, and the Iraq troop surge the president has put before the country. Republicans say look, if you want to have a debate and a vote in the Senate, you've got to have a fair process where all, or at least many, ideas are debated, not just one" ("Special Report," 2/5).
CNN's Roberts: "They're going to back to square one with the whole thing" ("AC 360," 2/5). [EMILY GOODIN]
We're a long, long way from that, but given the veepstakes buzz around Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (mostly generated by folks who don't get to make those decisions), we thought we'd note that Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romneysat down with the TX Sen. in Dallas today.
Apparently, Sen. John McCain was also in TX today.
Both men are raising money.
On Wednesday, Romney pops his head out in Detroit, where he'll speak about economic policy at the famed Detroit Economic Club.
The back-and-forth eye-poking between Sen. John McCain and Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney over who can accumulate the most endorsements from the other's home state strikes us as a little pissy.
You can blame the apostates on the vagaries of state politics.
McCain remains popular with rank-and-file Republicans in Arizona, but a sizable portion of the party elite -- state legislators, county chairs, donors – find him, well, demonic, almost. With a tiny majority, they managed to elect RNC member / McCain critic Randy Pullen as state chair. (The entire staff of the party promptly resigned in protest). The fissures go way back and have a lot to do with sharing the spoils of state party power.
In Massachusetts, Romney's problems with some Republicans have nothing to do with Mitt Romney, per se. Romney's present circle of advisers worked for the imperious but whip-smart ex-state treasurer Joe Malone. Malone often butted heads with with ex-Gov. L. Paul Cellucci, who eventually beat him in a ’98 gubernatorial primary. Malone also tangled at various times with GOP governors William Weld and Jane Swift. The factions don't get along, and they've used the canvass of state party politics to skirmish for years. (The Boston Phoenix has plenty more background.)
. [MARC AMBINDER]
How can NH save the primary calendar process? Consider the possibilities and check out today's web episode.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
For the past year, NH has been the spoiled brat among '08 Dems, throwing temper tantrums when the DNC and NV (among others) threatened its first-in-the-nation primary status. One year from today, if NH Sec/State Bill Gardner responds as promised to the increasingly front-loaded calendar, will NH instead emerge as a voice of reason?
Several states plan to move up their primaries to 2/5/08, creating a hectic Super Tuesday that complicates everyone's roadmap. (Nevermind FL's ambition to hold their primary on 1/29.) All this frontloading actually provides NH an opportunity. Gardner's threats to jump before NV (to 1/15, which would lead IA to move to 1/7) might actually calm the process, creating a week-long opening that lets everyone catch their breath and prepare for 2/5, when voters might actually have some idea who they're voting for.
How can Gardner ensure that NH goes first? Simple, he'll just wait. He's done it before, refusing to schedule the '96 primary 'til 12/20/95.
-- Gardner's legacy is protecting this primary; and there's a fear of the slippery slope effect if NH "allows" NV to precede them.
As part of our increased WH '08 coverage the Blogometer will be talking to leading bloggers in key primary states to get a better feel for who local bloggers are and what motivates them. Today we talk to Chris Woods of IA's Political Forecast.
The Hotline confirms a Fox News report that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will file a statement of candidacy with the FEC today. He'll run as a Republican.
It looks like Bill Kristol had similar thoughts on Fox News Sunday about how Rudy Giuliani could finesse the abortion issue:
I think if Giuliani is conservative on judges, if Giuliani says look, I served in the Reagan Justice Department with John Roberts and Samuel Alito, they're the kinds of judges I'll put on the court, I might vote differently as a legislator on abortion, but let's not have the federal courts resolve these issues, let's give them back to the democratic processes in the states — if he makes that a very key part of his campaign — his conservative view on judges — I think he has a chance to overcome social conservative concerns.
Mitt Romney's campaign became the first WH '08 GOP effort to officially start a pro-active recruitment effort today on Facebook.com. The membership drive started over the weekend when Romney online communications director Stephen Smith sent a message to about 40 or 50 activists asking for their help with today's launch.
Though Smith asked recipients to keep the effort quiet until now, MittReport.com published the full version of message, which included a goal of getting 1,000 members in the first 24 hours. The profile went up a little after noon today, and just over 35 people joined within the first hour of its launch. According to someone with knowledge of the online effort, the goal is for this profile to be a "hub" for existing facebook groups.
The hit-the-ground-running strategy? It worked for Obama's one million strong group, which was still getting ink over the weekend for its ever-increasing numbers. But this is the first facebook page run by a GOP's campaign team, so it will be interesting to see whether there's similar Facebook support out there for Dems as Republicans. Or can no one be as popular with college students as Obama? [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) is apparently pondering a re-re-re-rematch with Rep. Baron Hill (D) in IN 09. If Sodrel does challenge Hill in '08, it will be the fourth cycle in a row the two have met. More importantly, they have traded victories at least once. Is there any historical parallel? Can anyone find an example of two candidates facing each other 4 or more times and who have traded victories at least once?
On Friday, rumors began to circulate through Democratic circles that Sen. Barack Obama committed a high grade faux pas: he stood up New Hampshire Democrats.
Here's the real story: About 15 Democrats from New Hampshire expected to meet with Obama after he finished speaking Friday morning. They waited for almost twenty minutes; he never showed up. A few of the folks who waited felt stiffed. But it wasn't really Obama's fault. The DNC meeting started a half hour late, and the speeches all went long. So both Sen. Obama and the NH delegation were pressed for time. Obama had to cancel his meeting, and the folks waiting in the room for Obama weren't informed.
"We all thought he gave an excellent speech on Friday," NH Dem chair Kathy Sullivan says. As to Obama's non-appearance: "These things happen. It was a crazy day."
We keep hearing that Ned Lamont may challenge Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT). Today, he sent his e-mail list this missive:
When I said that the end of the campaign would not bring an end to our fight – our fight for an end to the disastrous occupation in Iraq; our fight for new, innovative solutions to the problems our country faces; and our fight for basic rights and equality of opportunity – I meant it.
Since the campaign, I have become more convinced that the biggest changes in America will not begin in Washington, D.C., but in the same ways that our campaign worked – at the local level, among the grassroots, in the places where optimism and hope still outperform cynicism and anger.
Even on the critical issue of Iraq - a federal issue if there ever was one - state governments have been taking the lead. The Progressive States Network and a number of partner organizations have launched a campaign, with encouraging success, to get state legislatures to speak out against President Bush's disastrous proposal to escalate the war.
"I have a very, very strong view that for this country to work, for our freedoms to be protected, judges have to interpret not invent the Constitution. Otherwise you end up, when judges invent the constitution, with your liberties being hurt. Because legislatures get to make those decisions and the legislature in South Carolina might make that decision one way and the legislature in California a different one."
"And that’s part of our freedom and when that’s taken away from you that’s terrible. President Bush has the great model because I think as the President he did appointed some really good ones and both of them are former colleagues of mine - Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito. Justice Scalia is a former colleague of mine
Is Giuliani hinting at a change of course? Plausibly, yes. "Strict Constructionist" is a term without real content in the legal world -- it means so many different things to different people. But in politics, it's nothing if not a code word for "Roe v. Wade, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, Lawrence v. Texas and all decisions of their ilk were outrages against the Constitution."
So precisely how can an avowedly, openly, proudly pro-choice stalwart morph into a defender and protector of the unborn?
Three ways come to mind.
Maybe he'll simply change his positions and claim that he was, to use Mike Murphy's words, a pro-life conservative faking it as a pro-choice friendly. After all, there'd have been no way in Hades that New York's voters would have elected a pro-life mayor. So in order to get things done, Rudy had to prestidigitate a little. This is an implausible scenario, so let's set it aside.
More realistically, Giuliani could:
1. Bank to the right on either late term abortions, civil unions, or embryonic stem cell research. Imagine if Giuliani said this:
"I have to say -- I've changed my mind about partial birth abortion. Until very recently, I'd never actually seen the procedure. I watched a video of one, and it’s horrific. A doctor friend of mine explained in a dispassionate, clinical way how it works -- how the baby's brain is sucked out of its head. It changed my whole view of it. I don't know anyone who wouldn't be changed by that. If people don't like that, sorry."
.
Such a conversion would send pro-lifers a sign that Giuliani is open to considering more restrictions on abortion. But he's still be able to say that, on the whole, he doesn't want government to intervene in the private medical decisions of responsible women beyond a certain point.
2. Which brings us to the second scenario, which is a little more plausible: Giuliani could call himself a strict constructionist and then bash Roe V. Wade, which enshrined or discovered (according to your point of view) a constitutional right to abortion. Here's what our fictional Rudy might say:
"I'm personally pro choice, and I've never made any bones about it. Having talked to constitutional scholars though and really having studied it more myself, I think Roe was terrible case law. Even liberal scholars will tell you that. And I'm a lawyer. All I've ever cared about is the construction. And having seen that, I really believe abortion should be a state issue, and if elected, I'm going to nominate people like Scalia and Roberts to the bench. Call it a litmus test or whatever you want, but I'm going to nominate judges who reflect my philosophy."
If Roe were overturned, state legislatures would once again decide whether abortion ought to be legal. The intellectual gymnastics required to pull this off would be formidable. Being pro-choice has come to mean that the right to abortion cannot be abrogated by law. Being pro-life has come to mean that state governments have every right to ban abortion. The non-real Rudy might say:
"I personally believe that women ought to be able to have abortions, but I don't think that my view should be imposed on every other state."
So overturning Roe would be the ideal solution. What's the principle here? If abortion is an horrific crime, then why should it be permitted in Massachusetts? If the right to an abortion derives from an unassailable constitutional right, then why would be it OK for Oklahoma to forbid it?
We're all the way back to our first scenario: Giuliani would be suggesting that he is not and has never been pro-choice in the conventional sense and had to appear to be pro-choice solely for the sake of liberal New Yorkers. Hard to get our brains around, but Rudy may well be vectoring to this approach. [MARC AMBINDER]
DNC Winter Meeting: Joe Biden On The Stump Who: Sen. Joe Biden
Standing Ovations: 4
Introduced by: MI Dem Chair Mark Brewer
Subtle Theme: Iraq is the big issue, I have the experience to deal with it
Overt Theme: Iraq is the big issue, I have the experience to deal with it. “We’re looking for someone to restore America’s greatness and that seems to be me.” “We must stop this war.”
Bragging: “The next president … will have to immediately end the war in Iraq.” “I am absolutely, positively sure that the American people are ready and so I am.”
Playing to the Crowd: Opening with “So how was your week?”, “Mr. President the majority of Americans” disagreeing with you “are not emboldening the enemy -- that’s the one mission you have accomplished.”
Cliches: “Restore America’s greatness,” “We need a plan,” “I have a plan,” “May God bless you and may God protect our troops.”
Discordant Note: Dealt with the “clean” comment at the beginning and got it out of the way. Kept speech short.
Howard Dean Suck Up: None
Self-deprecation: “So, how was your week?” “It’s been a hell of a week.
Blooper: A blooper free, short speech – the new Biden strategy?
DNC Winter Meeting: Bill Richardson On The Stump Who: Gov. Bill Richardson
Standing Ovations: 7
Introduced by: DNC Finance Chair Phil Murphy
Subtle Theme: Be positive and my resume rocks.
Overt Theme: I’m “calling on all other candidates to agree to run only positive campaigns.” I “call on the Democratic National Committee to pass a resolution” calling for clean campaigns. We need a president who “brokered international agreements … served as a governor, balanced budgets … turned an economy around.” And I went to Darfur.
Bragging: In New Mexico, we’ve created jobs, many in the high tech industry and we “didn’t abandon union families along the way.” “One of the first things I did as governor was re-instate collective bargaining for employees.” “Rather than using tax cuts to reward the wealthy, I used them to put people to work.” “The first thing we did was give teachers a raise and we did it every four years.” “Expanded health insurance -- we insure every child under the age of five.” “My state has become the clean energy state.” “We need someone who can win in every region in the country.” “As someone who’s served in Congress 14 years …”
Playing to the Crowd: Intro written by the wife of journalist Paul Salopek, the reporter Richardson rescued from the Sudan. Richardson, referring to the time limits on the speeches - “I don’t need seven minutes – I can do it in four words – elect a Democratic President.” Giving the nod to the other ‘08ers: we’re “better off with any of them serving in the White House – as my vice president.”
Cliches: “Don’t tear each other down,” “We believe in offering them a hand and help them up.” “I’m tired of hearing the Democrats don’t stand for anything – we do.”
Discordant Note: Played to the crowd so much he had to shout over applause.
Howard Dean Suck Up: “I just told Gov. Dean I’m almost finished and he said ‘Yeah right.’” “By the way Howard Dean was right about rebuilding our party in 50 states.”
Self-deprecation: “I know that rap on governors – that we don’t know anything about foreign policy. Maybe you can say that about certain governors from Texas but not this governor.”
Blooper: Speech time limit was seven minutes (as Howard Dean pointed out at the beginning of the morning). Richardson spoke about 18 minutes.
DNC Winter Meeting: Tom Vilsack On The Stump
Who: ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack
| Standing Ovations: 3
Introduced by: DNC Vice Chair Lottie Shackelford
Subtle Theme: Be not afraid. Change is good.
Overt Theme: “Sadly today so much of what takes place is motivated by fear.” “I am tired of a government that reminds me every day to be afraid and only talks about evil and never talks about promoting goodness.” “I’m not talking about small change, I’m not talking about incremental change but bold change.” “It requires courage for real change in this country.” “If we have the courage to make change we can turn America from red to blue.”
Bragging: “As a governor … I balanced eight budgets … and we had to make tough choices but I’m proud of that record as governor.” “We built a renewable fuel energy.” “We created new jobs and better paying jobs.”
Playing to the Crowd: “In this city they talk about no child left behind. Well the fact is I was a child left behind.” “I’ve always understood what it felt like not to belong.” “The war must end and our troops must be brought home now.” “Those who voted for the war, those who voted to fund the war, can surely vote to stop the war”
Cliches: “How privileged I am to be here this morning.” “Before hope is courage.” “We are a party of outsiders … and a reminder to you we win as outsiders.” “We know what we have to do all we need is the courage to get it done."
Discordant Note: The DC insiders have had their chance – go with the outsider.
Howard Dean Suck Up: I want to “take this opportunity to acknowledge the chair … for the support and the confidence you had in all 50 states.”
Self-deprecation: On the time limit -- “I see the time … take it off the next speech I give.”
Blooper: As the final speaker (and with things running late) Dean was encouraging him to wrap it up
Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.
PARTNERS IN POLITICS
Governors Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sebelius may have their own agendas but when it comes to character, both share a certain type of energy -- an energy they brought to the Center for American Progress earlier today. As they sat down to address questions of sex, strength, and progressive politics, each revealed a few personal past times that stretched beyond what could be learned from a press release.
21 AND LEGAL
If both President Bush and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) share the goal of sending close to 21,000 troops to Iraq, why has McCain's "whack-a-mole" approach received less press and less credit from the White House? Heritage Foundation's Mackenzie Eaglen and James A. Phillips argue that although Bush's plan may leave "an oil stain" on the country, McCain's "search and destory" mission could make U.S.-Iraqi relations much more difficult to mend.
A PEAK AROUND THE CORNER
Just beyond the Beltway, GOPers gathered at the Conservative Winter retreat - a three-day event not to miss for at least 90 House members. Those attending heard from presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and top politicos such as Tom Delay. Yet who were those other GOPers? TownHall Blog reports on a few of those forgotten.
SORRY, IT'S A PRIVATE PARTY
As you pencil in new primary dates, AEI's Tim Ryan asks that you consider the following: states pay for primary elections but when private organizations become involved, setting that primary date is a whole different ball game. No one wants to remember the private party's plead of '32 but are states, such as FL, quickly returning to the past? A trip back in time could suggest a few primaries are headed for trouble [SARAH LOVENHEIM]
What to make of an unsure Rudy Giuliani who hesitates to check the "Republican" box, therefore preserving the option of running as an independent?
First, that was two months ago, when Rudy and his tight circle of advisers were trying to game out the Republican primary. Given his potential vulnerabilities, it would have been malpractice for Rudy's team to reduce the number of options available to him. Politically, it'll be a question he may be called to account for in an early debate: "Why were you uncertain about running as a Republican?"
Today, no one in Giuliani's world expects him to run as anything other than a Republican.
Beginning next week, the campaign will have 60 staffers. More than a dozen major fundraising events are planned for February. Giuliani's team is close to hiring its media consultant. Its Republican media consultant. This week, they hired a well-regarded polling firm, the Tarrance Group.
And today, the campaign strategy director, Brent Seaborn, distributed a memo about Giuliani's strength with Republican voters. The full memo is after the jump, but here is the lede:
The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes - including "better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans", "would manage government more effectively" and what I believe to be the single most important factor - "is the stronger leader."
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
Note the innoculation in the final sentence. [MARC AMBINDER]
As Sen. Hillary Clinton, in her speech to the Democratic National Committee today, promised to end the war in Iraq as president, protestors from the anti-war group "Code Pink" stood up and shouted "End it Now! End it Now!"
There have been 10 Super Bowls held in the year before a presidential campaign year. The NFC leads the AFC in those 10 games, 6-4. In three of those 10 Super Bowls, the presidency was open and the AFC leads the NFC 2-1. And in the four Super Bowls that took place immediately AFTER the Senate changed hands, the NFC leads the AFC 3-1. Finally, there have been 5 Super Bowls held in FL the year before a presidential election year and the AFC leads the NFC 3-2. So based on these "trends," it appears this game will be like the other two Super Bowls the Colts played in (both in Miami, BTW) -- suprisingly close. BTW, one more useless stat that has nothing to do with politics but everything to do with angry Baltimorians: Two out of the three previous teams to make it to a Super Bowl AFTER moving from their original NFL city, won Lombardi Trophies in their first attempt -- TN being the exception.
** Every candidate sans one peppered the crowd with buttons and bumper stickers. But Sen. Barack Obama, befitting his sober speech, had none of that. His display table outside the main ballroom was spare, expcept for a few sign up sheets and photocopied black and white signs. All the candidates sans one entered to music. But Obama had none. Every candidate packed the hall with supporters. Obama didn't do anything in advance.
** Slogans: HRC: "I'm in it to win." Vilsack: Courage to create change." Kucinich: "Strong leadership for America's future." Edwards: "Tomorrow begins today." Clark: "Securing America's future." Dodd: :"Proven Leadership. A record of results." Gravel: "Let the people decide." Biden: no slogans.
** A Democratic strategist joked to Biden's campaign manager, Luis Navarro, that one salutory effect of the New York Observer article was that now, everyone in the country knows where Biden stands on Iraq.
** Wierdest pander: palm cards handed out by Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack's staff were manufactured using wind power.
Overt Theme: I'm Hillary Clinton, and even though I'm in Congress, that's OK, because we're going to hold Pres. Bush to the fire. Also: I'm Hillary Clinton.
Bragging: "I'm Hillary Clinton." "I'm not here to today just to start a campaign." "I grew up in a middle class family in the middle of America." "If I had been president in October of 2002, I would not have started this war." "If we in Congress don't end this war by January of 2009, as president, I will." "I expect to busy in the White House in January of 2009." "Lifetime of experience and qualifications." "We can elect the first women president."
Playing to the crowd: Thanks the DNC members and state chairs. "Hello Democrats!" mentions "universal health care.:" Proposes putting oil company profits into a strategic energy fund. "I am not running for president to put band aids on our problems." "fighting for more than 35 years"
I know a thing or two about winning campaigns." "When our pary and our candidates are attacked, we have got to stand up and fight back."
Cliches: 'I'm in, I'm in to win." Becaue we need ot take our country back. We need to work together. Put the country "back on the right track." "Things are just not right." "We need to start standing up for the American worker again." "I want to renew that promise of America." "We're working to push this agenda forward."
"People are tired of politics as usual, with good reasons." "We may even be falling further and further behind."
Discordant note:: Voice climbed into a yell five times.
Uses of the word "affordable"
Howard Dean suck up: Thanks her "long-time friend" for "helping to lead the charge" in '06.
Self-deprecation: obligatory health care reference
Blooper: Mentioned "band aids," a trademarked curity strip brand, rather than "health strips."
Staffed by: Minyon Moore, Karen Keogh, Capricia Marshall, Mark Penn, Mandy Grunwald, Phil Singer
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
When YouTube co-founder Chad Hurleyannounced last week that he has plans to start sharing profits with users, the online video Web site joined the ranks of many others that already pay contributors for their content. But the pay-for-play system raises legal questions for campaigns that use YouTube or other online video sites to share their content.
That's because political campaigns getting paid for anything, including Web videos, falls under the rare circumstance of making a profit without fundraising. Accordingly, there are two ways the FEC could judge this: Either the money earned would count as a corporate contribution from YouTube, or the profit is considered a normal business transaction as long as it's made at market value.
Former FEC Chairman Bradley Smith subscribes to the latter camp. He says as long as the sale is made at a market price, then it's just like a campaign selling extra office furniture.
"Traditionally, the basic standard is that these have to be commercially reasonably transactions," Smith said. "If YouTube was buying out space that the campaign had leased and paid for...that would not be considered a contribution by YouTube."
Most election law experts, including Smith, say campaigns should seek an FEC advisory opinion first on this matter. But other campaign law attorneys see this kind of profit-sharing as a corporate contribution. [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Subtle Theme: I make you cry. I make your hearts bleed. So vote for me, because it doesn't have to be that way. I'm the only one of these turkeys who has guts. Hillary and Obama are calculating. I'm real.
Overt Theme: There are major problems. It's our duty to fix them. Bad things don't have to happen. "This is not the time for political calculation. It's the time for political courage." "Silence is betrayal."
Bragging: Nothing, really.
Playing to the crowd: Uses death of Molly Ivins to say how important it is to "address women's health issues in our country.:" "union brothers and sisters" "Silence is a betrayal not to stop this president's plan to escalate the war." "We can not be satisfied with passing non-binding resolutions we know the president will ignore." "men and women who worked with their hands." "The unions, the men and women or organized labor. They will never lack the backbone to stand up to their workers." "It is time to be patriotic about something other from a war."
Cliches: "Will you stand up..." "It's time we stood up for an energy policy that's not dictated by the profits of big oil companies." "It is time for us to stand up for the real promise for America." "Tomorrow begins today."
Discordant note:: none
Uses of the word "affordable" 0
Howard Dean suck up: None.
Self-deprecation: None
Blooper: none
Staffed by: Sam Myers, Sam Myers Jr., David Bonior
Subtle Theme:I'm a general. This is a national security election.
Overt Theme: I'm a general. This is a national security eleciton.
Bragging: Clark was in the military for 34 years. "Over 34 years," in fact. "I know all of the units. I know many of the commanders. A lot of them worked for me.:" "I joined the military at the age of 17." "Fought in Vietnam." "Helped create the national security strategy of the United States." "I helped end a war in Korea, prevent one in Bosnia" and saved the Balkans.
Playing to the crowd: "A woman only makes 77 cents on the dollar to a man." "Where is the equality in America?"
Cliches: "It's not enough to be right. We must also be strong." "re-energize the American spirit." "Let's remember who we are as Americans."
Discordant note: A Clinton jibe? Some of the "problems existed before [Bush] took office."
Uses of the word "affordable" 1
Howard Dean suck up: 50 state strategy, um-hum. Dean's doing great.
An attendee at the Heritage Foundation / Republican Study Committeee retreat in Baltimore sends along these notes:
Last night, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich told RSC members they had two choices. to be content in the minority or to work every minute of day to earn it back. Gingrich saaid he was a hated member of the minority "for good reason."
Ex-Rep. Tom DeLay gave an "intriguing" presentation about degree to which liberal organizations like Moveon.org can control elections and showed a chart about how many different groups (hundreds) are associated.
Both Delay and Gingrich said that the RSC must seek to be the mouthpiece and the conscience of the Republican caucus, because no one else will.
Subtle Theme: The media sucks. I'm authentic. ("This is not a contest for the TV cameras. It's a contest for America.")
Overt Theme: "Democrats, this is not a game." Don't settle; follow your dreams. I'll restore hope.
Bragging: Subtly reminds audience that he oppopsed the war from the beginning. Then, he explictly mentions that he "publicly, frequently" opposed it.
Playing to the crowd: "The times are too serious to let the cynics win this time." The Iraq war "should have never been waged." Promises health care for all "by the end of the first term of the next president." "We don't have to send our young people off to fight if we make sacrifices here at home." Says every candidate should put forth a plan to get out of Iraq.
Cliches: "We have always been at our best in American when we aim high." "This is our time." "It is time for us to turn the page." "That's what we offer the American people: hope." "Together, we can hope."
Discordant note: "We internalize those fears."
Uses of the word "affordable" 0
Howard Dean suck up: 50 state strategy, baby.
Self-deprecation: Sometimes, he feels like he's on American Idol. Will he be voted off the island?
Blooper: None. Although he did criticize the media for focusing on campaign gaffes, rather than on crying children.
Subtle Theme: GIve me, Chris Dodd, a chance before you make up your mind. I'm a Democrat's Democrat.
Overt Theme: Let's ignite the passion of the American people. We need to pay attention their dreams and aspirations. "I'm am an optimist."
Bragging: Reminds the crowd that he was general chairman of the DNC, and mentions SC Dem / ex chair Don Fowler.. "I'm a strong Democrat."
Playing to the crowd: "We're finally going to have a debate over the war in Iraq." "It's time for a change in Iraq, and we're going to insist upon it, and I ask your support for that effort." "We're not going to take fear as an answer any longer in America." Promises to introduce a bill overturning "the horrible torture bill" that Pres. Bush signed into law. Also promises to "bring our troops out of Iraq." Bashes the "meaningless" Warner resolution that Sen. Hillary Clinton and other Dems have said they'll support.
Discordant note: "Let me tell you how important it is to be bipartisan in this country."
Uses of the word "affordable"
Uses of the word "middle class" 1
Howard Dean suck up: Recalls how Dean's speech 4 years ago "ignited the Democratic Party" and praised the 50 State Strategy
Self-deprecation: Recalls that he was once introduced as a "great leader of the Western world," and his sister teased him. "I'm the only candidate who gets mail from the AARP and from diaper services."
Blooper: Said America will elect its 43rd president in '08.
Staffed by: Jim Jordan, Maura Keefe, Nancy DiNardo, and ex-Hotliner Reid WIlson.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is adding a rapid response veteran to his campaign staff. Tom O'Brien was the dep. research director at the NRCC in the '02 cycle, part of a team that the Hotline said at the time "ran circles" around Democrats. Most recently, O'Brian was the dep. comm. dir. of the MTA in NY. O'Brien took a law degree from Fordham and has taught American history.
The AP's Nedra Pickler reports on a secret meeting between DNC exec. dir Tom McMahon and the presidential campaigns of Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama and Ex-Sen. John Edwards. They want the DNC to reign in the number of early debates. An adviser to a rival campaign called it a "cabal." Some allies of Sen. Joe Biden worried that the three secret meeters were trying to relegate the other campaigns to the second tier.
** Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack has the snazziest booth at the meeting. The highlight is a popcorn machine, which is supposed to represent Iowa corn.
** The meeting started about 20 minutes late, and DNC chairman Howard Dean had to stall for a few more moments before Majority Leader Harry Reid arrived. Reid proceeded to talk for about 25 minutes. (Did you know that his mother did the wash for prostitutes in Searchlight?) Reid had kind words for Dean's 50 State Strategy, crediting it with building the Democratic Party in places like North Dakota and Idaho.
** Consider this meeting a valedictory of sorts for Howard Dean. Four years ago, presidential candidate Dean walked up to the podium and began, "What I want to know is..." and brought the house down. His last line: "I represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." Today, Dean exulted that he is "proud to be a member of any wing of the Democratic Party. I am proud of what we have stand for, I am proud of what we accomplished, and I am proud of the American people.
The Capital Fax, the IL affiliate of our Hotline Political Network, offers up two interesting posts.
In the first, Capital Fax considers Sen. Barack Obama's pledge not to take PAC and lobbyist money and wonders whether his promise could backfire. In 1998, former gubernatorial candidate Glenn Poshard "banned most of those very same contributions when he ran" against George Ryan. Yet "As a result, he had constant money troubles."
The second post suggests President Bush's trip to Peoria, IL seemed a little too quiet. At a restaurant stop, Capital Fax writes "one thing caught my eye."
On his "clean" statement: "I wasn't making a historical statement. I was trying to compliment a colleague."
On Obama saying there have been articulate African-American candidates before: "Well he's right -- I campaigned with those articulate candidates."
More: "What I really regret here is that this sort of takes everything I was saying in that article about the war in Iraq and everything I was talking about what we need to do to get out of that war, and it just sort of, it moved it. And I also regret that there are people out there who would think that I was making a statement about the past. I was complimenting one of my colleagues, who by the way, he's like a meteor. There's not a single politician in either party who wouldn't like to be positioned where he is at this point."
Biden: "I think I'm going to be judged by a different standard and I deserve to be judged by a different standard because I say what I think. I sometimes say things inartfully."
More: "You know my state. My state, I think, has the eighth largest black population in America."
On if he's a "prisoner" of Capital Hill: "It's obvious that I'm not talking in the Senate language. I'd be a lot better off if I said I liked my distinguished colleague from Illinois" (MSNBC, 2/1).
HAIR RAISING ISSUES
And Mike Huckabee was on "On the Record":
On Mitt Romney: "He's got better hair than I do."
On the differences between him and Brownback: "I think there it's a matter of Senate versus executive experience. Senator Brownback and I would be very much kindred spirits in terms of many of the social issues. I don't know that we have a big disagreement there. So, it would primarily be in terms of experience and what we would bring to an executive branch job" (FNC, 2/1).
McCAIN GETS TOUGH
PBS' Suarez, on the Gen. Casey hearings: "Republican senators dominated the proceedings with their concerns about the president's troop increase plan and their attacks on Casey for the deteriorating situation in Iraq. Among the chief critics was Arizona Republican John McCain, a supporter of the president's troop buildup" ("NewsHour," 2/1).
CNN's McIntyre: "The case against Casey was laid out in prosecutorial style by maverick Republican John McCain, who slammed the outgoing Iraq commander's past rosy predictions and his reluctance to call for reinforcements while Iraq descended into chaos" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/1).
NOTHING LIKE POWER...
Rep. John Murtha (D-PA), on Dems controlling Congress: "I've been invited to the White House much more than I was in the past year" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/1).
AND FINALLY
MSNBC's Shuster: "The testimony late today was dramatic, and it was all about Vice President Cheney. An FBI witness was on the stand, and brought in evidence showing that Scooter Libby and Vice President Cheney may have discussed with each other leaking Valerie Wilson's identity to reporters as a way of undercutting administration critic Joe Wilson" ("Hardball," 2/1).
[EMILY GOODIN]
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
This busy beaver of a presidential candidate has an extraorindarily busy February, according to a campaign e-mailed we were sent.
February 1-2, New York City
February 5, Bloomington, IL
February 6, Detroit, MI
February 7, Kansas City, MO
February 7, Oklahoma City, OK
February 8, Charleston, SC
February 9, Chapel Hill, NC
February 9, Mississippi
February 12, Miami, FL
February 13, Ft. Lauderdale, FL
February 14, Tulsa, OK
February 14-15, Los Angeles, CA
February 15, San Francisco, CA
February 16, Las Vegas, NV
February 20, Houston, TX
February 21, Dallas, TX
February 22, Knoxville, TN
February 22, Nashville, TN
February 23, Pittsburgh, PA
February 25, New York City
February 26, New Jersey
February 27, New York City
It's fundraising month, folks. Let Obama to Iowa and HRC do New Hampshire...
From the Hotline's interview with Sen. Hillary Clinton
Hotline: Indira Gandhi, Margaret Thatcher, Golda Mier -- all led their nations at times of global or regional conflict. No one really seemed to question their credentials or their ability to be commander in chief, and yet, Americans still seem to have those questions. Why do you think that might be? Why are behind the rest of the Western world?
Clinton: Well, I think we're going to find out how far behind we are. I'm very excited by this campaign and as I said throughout Iowa and as I will continue to say throughout the campaign, I believe my experience and qualifications equips me to hit the ground running in 2009 to begin the process of renewing our own nation and restoring respect for our leadership around the world. And it will be a campaign that takes that message to the electorate, and I think that people will judge me on my merits and make the decision to support me because they think I am the most qualified person. Obviously I am also a woman, which I'm very proud of, and am excited to be running a credible, strong campaign for president to break some more barriers and create more opportunities for all of our children. I believe that the campaign itself will demonstrate that this is an opportunity and an historic time that people will find themselves being able to support.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) and Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) may not seem like two-of-a kind. Yet after careful examination, they have quite a bit in common. Hotline senior editor John Mercurio explores a few "striking similarities," as he questions how their rankings could affect their race.
Maybe he's the Cassandra of conservative worry-warts, or maybe he's trying to sell a book, but Richard Viguerie is again dropping strong hints about a third party. The latest e-mail we've gotten posits a nighmare scenario wherein the pro-gay, pro-choice Rudy Giuliani is pitted against HRC...
One of the reasons why so many DC GOP estab types are still skeptics about Rudy Giuliani running is that he hasn't hired many major GOP consultant types... that is... until now. The Giuliani camp announced today the hiring of the Tarrance Group, including all three major strategists inside the firm, Ed Goeas, Dave Sackett and Brian Tringali. With a pollster on board, the biggest missing piece for Giuliani is on the media side. We've heard plenty of rumors and there are truly only about 2 major players left as both McCain and Romney seem to be signing on teams of media consultants. Any care to start speculating on the frontrunner to handle Giuliani's media?
From the Hotline's interview with Sen. Hillary Clinton
Hotline: Do you think you have to tell voters what role the former president will play in your administration?
Clinton: Well, I've said that he will certainly be called upon for the kind of tasks that former presidents have performed. I've been very proud of the work he's done with former president Bush. In fact, I think that in many ways, the work they did on the tsunami is one of the few bright spots in American foreign policy in the last several years. Respect and gratitude for America in places like Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, increased dramatically because former President Bush and Bill presented America at its best. I believe, that, just as presidents call upon former presidents I intend to do that.
So -- America's roving ambassador?
I don't have any specific assignments in mind right now, but as a matter of historical precedence, there's a lot of ample examples of how former presidents have been called into service for their country.
From the Hotline's interview with Sen. Hillary Clinton
Hotline: We'd like to start with Iraq. Sen. Obama, last night, for the first time, called for a phased withdrawal with a date certain. In your estimation, what is wrong with that approach? Why haven't you signed on to an approach that includes a date certain by which troops would be redeployed?
Clinton: As I've said before, I've long been for beginning a phased redeployment from Iraq as soon as possible, and I have cosponsored legislation to that effect last year. I think we should begin to get U.S. troops out of Iraq as soon as we can and would urge the administration to do so as expeditiously as possible. I think it is the responsibility of this president to resolve our presence in Iraq before he leaves office. I've also, as I said last week, introduced legislation to cap the number of troops in Iraq at pre-escalation levels as of Jan. 1 and require both the Iraqis to meet certain conditions in order to continue funding the Iraqi security forces and to require that the administration meet additional conditions or require a new authorization resolution in order to keep our troops in Iraq. And I believe that that approach, keeping the pressure on both our government and the Iraqi government, trying to cap the troops, trying to get more leverage on the Iraqis to perform the way they have promised, is a comprehensive approach that, if it were pursued in addition to a diplomatic offensive, would be the best way to end our involvement in Iraq in the right fashion.
But what is the danger, then, in setting a precise date for the troops to be fully withdrawn?
Well, everyone has to do the best he or she can to try to resolve this terrible dilemma that we confront. And I've just explained what I believe is the best approach.
What did you think of Joe Biden's blunt language about your proposal [yesterday] morning?
Well, again, everyone has his or her opinion. Obviously, I disagree. I support the approach that has been taken to get the resolution of disapproval. I don't see what I'm proposing and what others are proposing as potential next steps to be in any way contradictory to trying to get a bipartisan statement of disapproval first.
From the Hotline's interview with Sen. Hillary Clinton
Hotline: What do you think is the origin of the emotions you inspire in some conservative activists? Was it Tammy Wynettte? Was it something else? A recent cover of NewsMax magazine insists that your nomination will be the panacea to all the ills of the Republican Party.
Clinton: Well, I think that's whistling in the dark. My take on it is that it's actually a perverse form of flattery ... that they take me seriously. They know how committed I am to my values and ideals and how deeply I care about our country and how wrong I think many of their policies have been that have undermined America's future. So when they protest too much and when they engage in all of their criticism and attacking me, I believe it demonstrates that I'm doing well.
Hotline: The first 100 days of a Clinton presidency: what are your priorities?
Clinton: Well, let's wait and see closer to the election what the problems we face are. Obviously, if this president has not resolved out involvement in Iraq in an appropriate way that is in keeping with our vital national security interests, that will be left to his successor. On a more positive note, I'm going to be looking to make progress on universal health care, and energy independent and global climate change and trying to relieve the squeeze on the middle class so that we can get back to renewing the promise of America for the vast majority of our citizens.
For Richard Tarrant, the GOP's VT SEN candidate in '06, it was about $85 a vote.
In 2006, some candidates spent their campaign cash prudently, converting each dollar raised into a vote. Others spent as much as possible, with less favorable results. We examine which politicians got the most bang for the buck. NationalJournal.com's Patrick Ottenhoffcrunched all the numbers.
In our weekly "Consultant Candids," we ask participants to label negative campaigning as good or bad. Their responses thus far were of a wide variety. Take a look:
Putting It Into Perspective
The use of negative campaign strategies was especially highlighted in this last cycle, but according to some consultants, the concept has been around the block.
GMMB Sr. VP Susan DiLiddo Michels: "Negative campaigning is... as old as time and human nature. The Romans campaigned negatively; Shakespeare dedicated an entire play to negative campaigning -- Richard III."
Targeted Creative Communications' Dan Hazelwood: "It is a myth that negative messaging is a recent invention. The Bible goes pretty negative on Pharaoh and the snake gets a pretty high unfavorable rating by the end of Genesis. That's appropriate."
Get Over It
It might have been around since the beginning of time, but where did negative campaigning get such a bad rap? Consultants point to the media. [KATHERINE LEHR]
Talk about message discipline. In the spirit of Sen. Barack Obama's quest for comity....
Not only did new finance chair Penny Pritzker maxed out to Sen. Hillary Clinton in '06, she also maxed out to... the Bush-Cheney re-election committee in '04.
Pritzker seemed to have hedged her bets in Obama's '04 Senate primary, too. She contributed to his opponent, Dan Hynes.
In Pritzker's defense, it's smart for a billionaire executive of a major company to max out to the president's re-election campaign. And Pritzker endorsed John Kerry in '04. And almost every check she's written over the past few cycles have been sent to Democrats.
And yes, she's given to Joe Biden, too. [MARC AMBINDER]
Last night, The Hotline interviewed Sen. Hillary Clinton. About 2:30 pm, we'll post the full version here.
A preview:
-- Clinton said she was not prepared to support Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) Iraq plan, in which he'd cut off funds for the entire war. . She supports "something that would be a strong bipartisan statement of disapproval," like the Warner resolution.
--Clinton wouldn't bite when we asked her why, unlike Sen. Barack Obama, she doesn't want to propose a "date certain" by which all U.S. troops would be redeployed.
--Find out what Clinton hopes to do in the first 100 days of her administration.
Coverage of the Democratic National Committee's Winter Meeting
Republican presidential candidates take note: if you didn’t think the Democratic National Committee was serious about scrutinizing your every utterance this early in the cycle, look at the resume of the man Howard Dean hired to be his new director of research.
Back in 2003, when Gehrke worked for John Kerry, Dean fell victim, often, to Michael Gehrke’s opposition research. “The chairman has a unique appreciation of tough he is and how critical he is to the effort,” says DNC communications director Karen Finney.
Gehrke will head an expanded DNC research department with the grand title of “Democratic Victory 2008.” Primarily, his team will dig deeply into the backgrounds of Republicans running for office. In this era of YouTube politics and oppo research blogs, you’ll see a lot more of their research be released on-the-record, and a lot earlier than usual. Victory 2008 will coordinate with other levers of the party. When the Democrats nominate their '08 presidential candidate, Gehrke and his team will have reams of research to hand over to the campaign.
Gehrke spent the ’06 cycle as the exec. dir of the Senate Majority Project, which was formed to target out of-cycle Senate Republicans. Remember the developing meme that John McCain was pandering to conservatives? A lot of the credit (or discredit, if you’re inclined) belongs to Gehrke’s brain, within which is imprinted a minute-by-minute chronology of everything the Arizona senator has ever said. It’s very easy for Gerhke to download his brain to an e-mail and then to zip it to reporters. The New Hampshire phone jamming scandal? Gehrke’s efforts raised its profile this year.
The DNC’s effort began with Devorah Adler, now the research director for Sen. Barack Obama. It will expand under Gehrke, who, working for John Kerry, knows a thing or two about defining presidential candidates early – or, in this case, having another presidential candidate define your candidate early.
The RNC has a similar, but less public plan. And two of the top GOP oppo researchers in the business -- Barbara Comstock and Matt Rhoades -- have taken positions with Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. [MARC AMBINDER]
There was still a lot of talk on Iraq last night, along with reports on scary cartoons in Boston, but pundits' favorite subject was Joe Biden:
Time's Carney: "What Biden was saying, and this is Biden's fault for not being clear in what he was saying in this interview, is that there hasn't been a candidate, a viable African-American candidate with all those qualities in one ... who is mainstream" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/31).
Dem strategist Donna Brazile: "I was shocked to read those comments. Look, I know Joe Biden. I believe his intentions are good. He has a strong civil rights record. But it came across pretty damaging. His first, you know, major event, his announcement, and he stepped on his own story" ("Situation Room," CNN, 1/31).
Washington Post's Kornblut: "This is classic Joe Biden. ... He tends toward the hyperbolic often in his speech, and he talks and talks and talks" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 1/31).
Newsweek's Alter: "This guy does have a foot in mouth disease. He has ever since he arrived in the U.S. Senate at age 30" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 1/31).
Newt Gingrich: "I have occasionally put both of my feet in my mouth, and it's not a very comfortable feeling, because you have nothing left to stand on. And I think Senator Biden just had one of those moments" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 1/31).
Washington Post's Milbank: "Nobody sees Joe Biden as a racist. They just see him as a man who just can't seem to, you know, get that governor in control in between his brain and his mouth" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 1/31).
FNC's Hannity: "Trent Lott apologized multiple times. He made his first apology to me after making a joke at Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday. Nobody accepted his apology" ("Hannity & Colmes," 1/31).
Weekly Standard's Kristol: "I think it's a very clever move by Senator Biden. Seriously, if he had just announced his candidacy, he'd be like the ninth Democrat in the race, who would care? He'd be on page A-7 in the papers, we would not be discussing him here -- anymore than we didn't discuss Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd an all the other people who are running. And here we are and he's on every news show. He's got people airing his criticisms of his competitors, Senator Edwards and Senator Clinton and Senator Obama" ("Special Report," FNC, 1/31).
STILL STANDING ALONE
Pres. Bush spoke with FNC's Cavuto:
On Sen. Arlen Specter's not the "sole decider" comment: "He wants to make sure the legislative body has input in the process and they do. They decide funding levels, for example. ... You shouldn't be surprised that members of the legislative body want to have input."
More: "I don't take any of this stuff personally. I really don't. ... It's a difficult time on Capital Hill. There are people who are doubtful."
Bush: "When times are good there are millions of authors of the plan, when times are bad there is one author and that would be me."
Asked what the troops would think of a Pres. Obama: "Oh I don't know. He hasn't been elected yet. He hasn't even gotten his party's nomination. He's an attractive guy. He's articulate. I've been impressed with him when I've seen him. But he's got a long way to go to be president."
Asked about Hillary Clinton's criticism of Iraq: "She's not nominated either" ("Your World," 1/31).
Contributing Editors: John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Tim Sahd, Maura O'Brien, and Abby Livingston
Contributing Writers: Holly Noe, Ian Faerstein, Rachelle Douillard-Proulx, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez
On Call editors reserve the right to delete inappropriate comments. The Hotline, National Journal Group, Inc. and Atlantic Media Company are not responsible for the content of the comments that remain.
On Sunday, Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up the endorsement of SC State Sen. David Mack III. The last time we checked, Sen. Mack was a public supporter of Sen. Joe Biden. Mr. Mack is a talk show host and small business owner, and one of the politicians that outside journalists call to get the skinny on politics. Was it something Biden said?
The He's trying to run an unconventional campaign with conventional (but talented) strategists. Something will give, and soon. By the way, Michelle Obama reminds us a lot of Hillary circa 1992 -- an accomplished woman who will be a challenge for the campaign to manage -- which means she'll probably be more of an asset than somein the media believe. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million. 
There's a slightly less menacing storm in Michigan, too. Three Michigan lawmakers who once gave Mitt Romney their endorsement are 
