February 2007

According to the CBS "Evening News," John McCain announced his candidacy during his appearance with David Letterman. From the "Evening News" broadcast:

At 6:49pm (bit late in the broadcast),

Katie Couric: "Well we've been expecting it for some time, but today Sen. John McCain made it official."

Clip:
McCain: "I am announcing that I will be a candidate for president of the United States."
Letterman: "Oh!"

Back to Katie:
Couric: "The Arizona Republican made the announcement during the taping of tonight's 'Late Show with David Letterman.' This will be his second run for the White House. He lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush in 2000."

Couric then transitioned to the McCain-Kennedy "comprehensive new immigration bill."

While McCain appearing on an info-tainment show is not news, his choice of announcing on Letterman is intriguing for two reasons. 1) Letterman is considered a bit more "blue state" than his counterpart Jay Leno. 2) Nothing says "I'm not old" than announcing on one of the late night shows.

One key question: Does this mean McCain's "why I am running for president" announcement is going to come sooner (i.e. before the end of the 1st fundraising quarter) or later?

Update: AP's Sidoti has the Letterman announcement update and also reports that McCain's formal announcement (i.e. the "why I'm running" speech) will come in early April -- after the 1st quarter fundraising. Does this mean McCain's camp believes his 2ndQ fundraising will be stronger than his 1stQ?

Normally, we don't take hand-outs, but we did find this video compilation of MSNBC's Chris Matthews rather amusing.

Check out the exchange with Clinton aide Ann Lewis.

Can social conservatives find someone -- anyone -- to harvest from the '08 field? Watch and learn...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Terry McAuliffe is on the verge of losing his voice.

The prodigal son of Syracuse remains on his book tour -- check out the stellar coverage here -- and his colleagues really want him to preserve his best public asset -- that famous, booming, confident voice that has cajoled literally hundreds of millions of dollars out of the deep, hand-tailored pockets of major Democratic donors. (Listen to a poor -- but proud -- McAuliffe rasp into the microphone.)

After all, Sen. Clinton needs a big fundraising quarter.

In Syracuse, one audience member was professionally concerned about the condition of Mac's throat. "I'm a throat doctor and I want to perscribe something to you," this person said.

So - back in Washington -- one of McAuliffe's aides gave him some advice: don't yell so much. But that didn't stop McAuliffe from screaming his booming hellos. [MARC AMBINDER]

A top Bush finance hand has joined ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuiani's exploratory committee.

Willie Gaynor, most recently the finance director for Bush's '04 inaugural, will serve as senior finance adviser, helping the campaign's professional fundraising staff maintain and develop relationships with major donors.

In '03-04, Gaynor served under Mercer Reynolds as the Western Regional Finance Dir. for the Bush-Cheney campaign. He's a disciple of Bush's original finance chair, ex-Commerce sec. Don Evans and has good contacts in the business world. [MARC AMBINDER]

"It's just so early" has become a pretty common refrain in response to the fast start of the 2008 presidential campaign.

But it's really not that early at all. The starting line moved up because the finish line moved first; the front-loaded primary calendar that has most states voting on or before Feb. 5, 2008, is forcing the campaign to switch into gear now.

This cycle is different. It has two distinct "elections," and candidates who recognize that and stop worrying about the general might benefit more than they realize.

The '08 presidential race should be viewed as two distinct campaigns. Previous primary campaigns have bled seamlessly into the general, which in turn has made the election cycle feel never-ending. For instance, the 2004 campaign, which started full-bore in March 2003, was a solid 20-month continuous campaign because it was all about the general election. The Democratic primary focused on Bush and beating Bush, so the looming general election shone brightly on the party. [CHUCK TODD]

Continue reading On The Trail

From today's Hotline:

Rep. Dan Burton (R-IN) was recently criticized for missing votes while playing at the Bob Hope Classic. But it looks like he could use a bit more practice, since he apparently plays with a 12 handicap.

This isn't new news, despite Newsmax.com's breathless breaking news alert.

For months, Clinton strategist James Carville has been telling anyone who would listen that he's convinced ex-VP Al Gore will run, Gore's deflections to the contrary.

Here's how we're translating Mr. Carville:

He might think Gore will actually run.

Also, the more Dems pay attention to Al Gore, the less they'll pay attention to Sen. Barack Obama.

The more there's talk of a Gore run, the more impetus there is for a Draft Gore movement, the more pressure Gore feels compelled to run, the more excited some Democrats become, about a Gore run, etc, the more they compare Gore and his resume to the rest of the field...

Do Sen. Clinton's strategists believe that Gore will actually run? Probably not -- he'd be hard to beat, as they'll acknowledge. But the more the Democratic activist base thinks about Gore, the more they'll compare the ideal -- Mr. Gore -- with the hope -- Mr. Obama, and presumably, they'll find Obama lacking in substance.

Obama's strategists dispute the entire premise of this calculation. [MARC AMBINDER]

Maybe the Post was seeking an antidote to their speculative stories about black voters, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Hence:

Black Voters Shift Support: Sen. Obama picks up support among black voters over Sen. Clinton, poll shows.

As MysteryPollster will doubtless remind you: one poll does not a trend make, and forming holistic conclusions off sub-samples is fairly silly. Watch for trends; watch for a national poll of African Americans only; watch to see whether Clinton's campaign responds or reacts. If they don't, it's safe to say that they're not panicked by the opinions of 157 people in a telephone survey.

Note that the Post's partner -- ABC News -- didn't even mention the shift in its write up.notion.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

Georgia Political Digest-- Guiliani Leads GOP For 2008 Clinton and Obama Tops For Democrats -- an exclusive poll for the Digest.

AZ Political News-- Bill Would Protect Right To Keep Weapons During An Emergency

Capitol Fax -- Morning Shorts

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Kerry Spars With Ambassador Nominee Over Contributions

NhNewslinks.com -- Bill Seeks To Deter Teen Drinking, Opponents Warn Of Unfair Penalties

Quorum Report -- 2003 Chip Limits Could Be Removed

Sayfie's Review -- Bill Would Punish Radar Detector Owners

WisPolitics.com-- Doyle Back Gay Benefits

He now graces the cover of the American Spectator's website. (Run, Fred, Run! screams the Spec's Washington Prowler).

We're skeptical.

But -- it doesn't seem to us like Thompson's circle of advisers (or Thompson himself) are eager to bat down these rumors.

Drudge: ‘R E B O U N D ? ”

Buzz Story One: McCain, Kennedy Try Again on Illegal Immigration (Boston Globe)

Buzz Story Two: Black Voters Shift Support; Obama Picks Up, Clinton Drops. (Washington Post)

Memeorandum: U.S. Will Join Talks With Iran And Syria

Editor’s Choice: Some GOPers are pushing Mike Huckabee to drop his "long-shot" WH bid and challenge Sen. Mark Pryor (D) for AR SEN (The Hill).

The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Everywhere one looks, the day is filled with Democratic disarray on Iraq."

The Note:'s Insufferable Aside Of The Morning: "Many political reporters are frustrated sports writers and rock critics — which is why the most over-used and annoying political cliché of the season is to describe a hot candidate as "like a rock star."

You might have missed: A new Philadelphia Daily News/Keystone poll of PA shows Giuliani defeating HRC 53-37% and Obama 53-32%. McCain also beats HRC 45-41% and Obama 43%-37% (release) Also, Strategic Vision (R) polls show HRC beating Obama 36%-21% among WI Dems, and 28%-25% among GA Dems. Meanwhile, Giuliani beats McCain 26%-22% among WI GOPers, and 28%21% among GA GOPers (releases).

Thought of the day: Conan O'Brien, on the Oscar ratings improving among 18-34 year-olds: "That statistic is misleading because viewers who were 18 at the beginning of the show were over 50 when it ended" ("Late Night").

... all over the red carpet. Enjoy the show!

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

What happens to the presidential race if there's a recession?

In addition to what was highlighted in today's "Spotlight", the new Diageo/Hotline poll shows Pres. Bush's job approval rating at 36% among all RVs and 76% among GOPers. Moreover, Bush's handling of the war in Iraq has a 30% approval rating -- 1% higher than what he received 1/14.

Meanwhile, cong. job approval hasn't seen a significant change since the Dem takeover. 30% of voters approve in comparison to the 27% that did 11/15.

Iraq continues to dominate the dialogue, with 38% considering the war as the most important issue facing the country today. Of that %, 6% support the war and 32% oppose it.

As for a generic general WH '08 ballot, 46% of voters would select a Dem candidate. 28% would choose a GOPer. In an open-ended question asking who you'd most like to see elected pres. in '08, Hillary Clinton received 18%. Barack Obama followed with 12%. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain had 8% and 6%, respectively.

When asked to select which category best describes a candidate's age, a majority of voters chose correctly for HRC, John Edwards and Giuliani. However, 41% believe McCain is 55-64. The senator is currently 71 years of age. Obama, 45, was also mistaken by 43% for being in the 35-44 range.

Only about 20% of all voters are aware of the top tier '08ers' religion. 22% correctly labeled Giuliani as Catholic and 20% correctly labeled Romney as Mormon. However, 6% incorrectly think Obama is Muslim [KATHERINE LEHR].

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Mitt Romney is taking hits for lurching to the right, but a new Diageo/Hotline poll shows his WH '08 strategy may be working.

-- Romney's name I.D. among GOPers remains less than 1/2 that of McCain or Giuliani, according to the survey, but comparable numbers of GOP voters view him as "conservative." The ex-MA gov also has the lowest "liberal" rating of the three.

-- Of course, the Right's still not sold on their top tier. Less than 1/4 of GOPers describe any of them as conservative. Other unique hurdles each one faces: More than half of GOPers say Giuliani's a moderate, but only 1/3 even know he's pro-choice ... yet. Also just 26% of GOP voters know Romney's a Mormon. And slightly more than half of all voters (60% of GOPers) think McCain is 64 or younger; He'd be 72 at his 1/09 swearing-in.

-- Meanwhile, Dems maintain a key edge in voter excitement, reflected in an open-ended question about preferred '08ers. Clinton alone pulls the same support as all 3 top GOPers combined (and Obama is the only other candidate in double-digits). Is that connected to the relatively small number of GOPers who think Giuliani/McCain/Romney are "conservative?"

Early polling of the '08 WH field indicates young adults still lean Dem, though "not by as large a margin" as they did in '06, according to a Young Voter Strategies analysis of recent Pew, Quinnipiac, RT Strategies and Lake-Tarrance/YVS polls.

Respondents ages 18-29 agree with all ages on the frontrunners -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards for the Dems; and Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in the GOP.

But in general election match-ups, younger voters show their color. Giuliani beats HRC, Obama and Edwards among all respondents, but loses to all three Dems among those ages 18-29. Young respondents also prefer all three Dem frontrunners to McCain, who beats HRC and Edwards and ties with Obama among all ages.

Obama "draws stronger support from young adults than from any other age group" among Dems by 11 points, while young adults appear "slightly more supportive" of McCain than GOPers at large.

We get Obama, but is McCainSpace really that popular?

From today's Hotline:

Several readers wrote in to comment on the "Hollywood Hardware Primary." Ex-Pres. Clinton has won two Grammys -- one for Best Spoken Word for his bio and one for Best Spoken Word on an Album for Children. Late Rep. Helen Gahagan (D-CA) has a star on the walk of fame. Late Sen. George Murphy (R-CA) received a special Oscar "for interpreting the motion-picture industry correctly to the country at large" in '50. And Ronald Reagan has a Golden Globe. And yes, we know Al Gore did not technically "win" an Oscar. But he certainly accepted one...

Drudge: ‘Cheney: I Heard A Boom” Also: "FLASH: More than quarter of U.S. women ages 14-59 infected with sexually transmitted human papillomavirus... Developing... "

The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: "Note question: What would happen if a less — or more — "seasoned" candidate said something like this?" -- they're responding to Sen. John Edwards's insinuation that he'd be open to negotiate a non-aggression treaty with Iran.

Buzz Story One: Clintons' Charity Not Listed On Senate Disclosure Forms (Post)

Buzz Story Two:
Romney Campaign Internal Memo (Boston Globe)

Memeorandum: Al Gore’s Personal Energy Use Is His Own “Inconvenient Truth”

Editor’s Choice: Yepsen: Vilsack's departure could signal end for others (Des Moines Register)

Thought of the day: Stephen Colbert, on Oscar celebs using hybrid limos: "Any lowering of emissions they achieved with the limos was canceled out by the amount of smoke they blew up Al Gore's ass" ("Colbert Report").

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- House Oks Bill Backed By Cox Cable

Capitol Fax -- Local Elections Roundup

Georgia Political Digest-- House To Consider Return Of 'Payday Lending'

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Ag Director Quits Amid Allegations

NhNewslinks.com -- Labor Activists Working To Change Federal Labor Law

Quorum Report -- For The Record, Real Voting Will Continue In Secret

Sayfie's Review -- Crist Tries To Sell Congress On Federal Catastrophe Fund

WisPolitics.com-- AirTran: Midwest Merger Would Add 1,100 State Jobs, $1 Billion To Local Economy

28 percent of those surveyed in the latest Hotline/Diageo poll correctly identified ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani as pro-choice -- that includes 33 percent of Republicans.

The rest either believed he is pro-life, or they didn't know.

That sounds like the smoking gun, right?

But only 11 percent of those we surveyed incorrectly stated that Sen. John McCain is pro-choice, indicating an enhanced level of knowledge about Giuliani's social positions among primary voters.

45 percent of those we surveyed believe that Sen. Hillary Clinton is pro-choice.

At the end of the Boston Globe article about an internal Mitt Romney strategy memo written by strategist Alex Castellanos.

Like every Republican in the race, Romney faces the delicate task of how to talk about President Bush, whom the country gives low job-approval ratings . But the plan lists two ways Romney can set himself apart from Bush. The first says, simply, "Intelligence."

Castellanos, of course, is a veteran of both Bush campaigns and has remained an informal adviser to the White House.

Not taking anything away from John Solomon and Matthew Mosk's article -- clearly, Sen. Clinton made a mistake -- but was this really necessary?

Private family foundations vary in amounts they give away each year. The Clintons have given away a quarter of their money. The family foundation of record producer David Geffen, by comparison, has been giving away most of what it takes in -- roughly $1 million a year -- leaving it with a balance of $400,000 at the end of 2005.

In the aftermath of Al Gore's Oscar, pundits tried to determine if they had a winner:

Politico's Allen: "If Senator Clinton and Senator Obama eat each other up, if for some reason there's a vacancy, a vacuum, an opening when it comes to the fall, voters are sick of the fantastic choices that they have on either side, I can definitely imagine the vice president making this move" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 2/26).

Pat Buchanan: "Obama has got to fade for Gore to move. He's got to be knocked down. And if he is knocked down, Gore should drive right in there, because then I think he could win" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 2/26).

Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts: "I think there's two people ... that you ought to watch over the next two or three months, Newt Gingrich on the Republican side, Al Gore on the Democrat side. Now, you can't run a covert campaign. So, you need to be active in some way. We don't see any signs of Al Gore being active. However, I think the key is, if somebody stumbles on the Democrat side ... I think he may get in. I think it's a real possibility. The same thing -- John McCain on the Republican side, you see John stumbles, I think Newt probably takes a serious look at it" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/26).

MSNBC's Carlson: "In some sense, the presidency almost seems too small for Al Gore at this point" ("Tucker," 2/26).

THE '08ers GET THEIR TV TIME IN

Bill Richardson played "Hardball" last night, where most of the discussion focused on the war on terror:

Asked if he likes "to go head-to-head with the tough guys," Richardson: "Yes, I do. And President Clinton used to send me to talk to Sudan, North Korea. We talked to Cuba. And we had success" (MSNBC, 2/26).

Ron Paul was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":

On his vote against the war in Iraq: "I'm a stickler for the Constitution. I was annoyed because they wouldn't declare war. They thought it was important to go to war. The people's representatives should declare war, and they should fight it and get it over with and win. So I didn't like the way they went, and I didn't think we were ever threatened by Iraq" (CNN, 2/26).

GOTTA HAVE FAITH

Laura Bush was on "LKL."

Asked if Romney's faith should be an issue: "I don't think so. I mean I think that he is a very outstanding and a wonderful man with great character and a lot of great credentials. And so I think people's faith in the United States is their, certainly, you know, what it is. Each person has the right to choose whatever faith they want and it's a very important part of our country."

ONE JUROR OUT BUT LIBBY CASE GOES FORWARD

FNC's Angle: "The jury went right back to work in the Scooter Libby trial, after losing one of its members. The judge told both sides that one juror acknowledged that she might have been tainted over the weekend, leading some to conclude it was another juror who first raised the matter" ("Special Report," 2/26).

MSNBC's Shuster: "They can render a verdict with just 11. They just cannot go down to 10. And the fear that everybody has now is that as this goes along, if the jury is going to continue deliberating for several more days before reaching their verdict, if they were to lose another juror, then they would have to go back to one of the two alternates who have been sent home and simply been instructed, don't watch any sort of media coverage" ("Hardball," 2/26).

CNN's Todd: "It's unclear what kind of information the juror, who's now an arts researcher, was exposed to, but she has gone her own way before in this case" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/26).[EMILY GOODIN]

Gov. Rod Blagojevich loves his proclamating. Blagojevich, who dedicated an entire week to the Chicago Bears after they lost the Super Bowl, has proclaimed 2/26 “Jennifer Hudson Day” in IL “in recognition of the Chicago native’s Oscar win for Best Actress in a Supporting Role” in “Dreamgirls.”

Blagojevich recognizes Hudson for her childhood in Chicago, where she displayed “her music and theatrical skills... in dozens of talent shows and musical productions.” In the 358-word proclamation, Blagojevich cites Hudson’s start “as a vocalist on the Disney Wonder Cruise Ship” and her “first big break” on “American Idol,” and her 2/25 Oscar win as justification for her “day.”

Rudy Giuliani delivered the keynote remarks to the Hoover Institution's Overseers’ Luncheon at the Willard InterContinental in DC today. Although there were no rah-rah moments for the 9/11 hero, the crowd was instead treated to Giuliani as the champion of free market enterprise -- the tax-cutting, welfare-reducing, budget-balancing descendant of Ronald Reagan.

Giuliani was introduced by his camp's new dir. of policy/'02 CA GOV nominee Bill Simon, who called him "a friend, a mentor, a former boss, and a fellow Ronald Reagan Republican." And although Simon noted that he "comforted us, he inspired us on one of the darkest days in American history," Giuliani strayed from the ever-popular 9/11 storytelling session, and opted to focus his address on how the expansion of "freedom" creates the best policies in taxation, school reform, entitlement reform, and health care reform.

In each area, Giuliani consistently pressed the case that GOP policies will be successful so long as GOPers stick to the core belief that "free market principles are really the salvation." Giuliani, on the GOP: "We're not always right, we're not always on our game. ... [But] we have to go back to our core principles and build on them." And what are those core GOP principles? "Freedom. ... When we've been doing well, we've expanded people's freedom a little bit more," Giuliani said, citing a history of GOPers beginning with Abraham Lincoln, and including "our greatest and most effective presidents," Theodore Roosevelt and, of course, Reagan.

Never delving into specific policy proposals, Giuliani kept his talk to the general sweeping idea of promoting free market policy. Giuliani said that the health care system is "fractured" and "in trouble," but can only be fixed with "free market solutions, competitive solutions." Giuliani: "We work best as a party ... and it helps our country the most when we empower people." On the issue of school choice, for example, Giuliani went back to his experience in New York, and argued: "I don't know how you say no to that. ... I don't know why it's not one of the great civil rights issues of our time." Who do we trust with the education of children, he argued, the board of education bureaucrat or the parent?

Meanwhile, in the Q&A session, Giuliani was first asked about his foreign policy experience, to which he quipped to laughter: "What makes you think that the mayor of New York City doesn't need a foreign policy?" Admitting that the presidency is "primarily a foreign policy role," Giuliani called foreign policy "an area of great interest to me," and one that he has developed through 91 or 92 trips abroad, as well as through international work with his firm. Giuliani: "It's something I know as well as anyone who's running. ... I know the world."

When speaking about the war on terror -- or rather, as he has renamed it, "the war of the terrorists against us" -- Giuliani argued that we should be comparing the war not to America's struggle in World War II, but to the Cold War. In the Q&A session, Giuliani also took the opportunity to condemn the congressional non-binding resolutions as "a way to be safe. It was a way to not make a tough choice."

Although there were no standing ovations and a mere one or two applause interruptions, the audience seemed quietly receptive to Giuliani’s message. But were they convinced? As one audience member said: "I may be in love, we'll see.” [MAURA O'BRIEN]

The Hillary Clinton camp is rolling out the big names of the Clinton Administration in its “grassroots” effort to raise $1M in a week.

The “One Week One Million” campaign launched last week with high profile e-mail (and accompanying picture that still has us scratching our heads) from “Bill Clinton.”

(As of 9 am, they had raised $619,896.)

Today, Clinton’s Sec/State Madeleine Albright sends out an e-mail, sharing her memories of HRC fighting “for women’s rights at home and abroad,” as she stood “side-by-side” with her as the “first woman secretary of state of this country.”

“Albright”: “And what a remarkable woman we're putting forward into this historic moment: strong, smart, experienced, and deeply committed to the values you and I share. The very first day of her presidency, Hillary will transform America's role in the international community because of the deep admiration she has long enjoyed on the world stage. She will restore the respect that is the foundation of our alliances and the source of our strength.”

Anyone else find it interesting that HRC is using bigwigs like Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright to push a Dean-style grassroots online fundraising campaign? “Bill” wrote last week that the point was to “demonstrate the range and breadth of Hillary's support by raising one million dollars in grassroots donations in a week's time.” Bill and Sec. Albright are kind of mainstream, no?

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Mitt Romney could barely contain his glee 2/24 in NH while discussing '08 Dem discord. "It's great, isn't it?" he chortled. But if we learned anything this weekend, it's that discord remains a bipartisan commodity.

-- Let's start on the right, where the Dobson-Falwell-Norquist group that met recently in FL was so distraught that they begged SC's Sanford to run. Sanford declined, according to the NYT, but the episode reinforced fears among top '08 GOPers that the road to the WH is paved with pitfalls. If none of the big 3 break out, look for talk of Newt, Sanford, Jeb and Haley in the fall. There's a vacuum; It's why Romney decided on the conversion approach and why Rudy's as viable as he appears.

-- The Left's drama played out on the left coast as Hollywood (diCaprio, DeGeneres et al) virtually begged Al Gore to run. Sure they raised money with Barack and Hillary. But doubts remain. Besides, only an Oscar winner can truly be one of them. (Note how Gore didn't go totally native in his carefully constructed quotes.)

-- Their doubts are distinct. But from FL to L.A., it's clear this incomplete script is poised for a few more plot twists

From today's Hotline:

Since Ronald Reagan never won an Oscar, that makes Al Gore the first. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both won Grammys for "Best Spoken Word" for their books (her in '97, him in '06). Rudy Giuliani never won a Grammy but in '98, when he was NYC mayor, he said he didn't care if the ceremony moved back to L.A. (It did). And actor James Woods was nominated for an Emmy after playing Giuliani in "Rudy: The Rudy Giuliani Story." Note that our listing doesn't count ex-Carmel Mayor/multiple Oscar winner Clint Eastwood. Who are we missing? E-mail us.

Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.

A few weeks ago, On the Download reported on the sorry state of official Congressional Web sites, including citing an upcoming report from the Congressional Management Foundation on that topic. The non-profit group issued a report card today evaluating 615 taxpayer-funded Web sites from the 109th Congress, including those hosted by members, committees and leadership.

The best of the lot were awarded with Gold, Silver, and Bronze Mouse Awards, although CMF called the overall state of Congressional Web sites “disappointing” with about 39 percent of Web sites receiving a substandard or failing grade. Out of all of the studied Web sites, 18 received a Gold award, 27 received Silver and 40 received a Bronze rating. Evaluations were based on what the committee called the pillars of a good Congressional Web site: Audience, Content, Usability, Interactivity and Innovation.

You can read the full report here (www.cmfweb.org.), but here are a few notable findings:

*Only Rep. Mike Honda, D-Calif., Senator Jeff Bingaman, D-NM, and Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., have received an award each of the three times the report has been released in 2002, 2003 and 2006.

*Republican Web sites scored higher than Democratic ones, with 69 percent of GOP sites scoring at least a “C” grade compared to just 56 percent of their Democratic counterparts.

*The report notes that there’s a relationship between the Web site grade and this year’s election margins. Members who received less than 50 percent of the vote in 2006 had the highest percentage of Web sites with an “F” score.

Drum roll please… The following House and Senate members received a gold award for their Web site: Reps. Brian Baird, D-Wash., Xavier Becerra, D-Calif., Marion Berry, D-Ark., Earl Blumenauer D-Ore., Mike Honda D-Calif., John B. Larson, D-Conn., John Linder, R-Ga., Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., Jeff Miller R-Fla., Dennis Moore, D-Kan., Charlie Norwood, R-Ga., and Sens. Bill Frist, R-Tenn., Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., and Rick Santorum R-Pa. CMF declined to release a list of the Web sites that received failing grades [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News--
Governors Seeking Help From Congress For Children's Health Care

Capitol Fax -- Winner Or A Loser?

Georgia Political Digest-- House Bill Will Help Establish Accountability

Iowa Politics-- Legislature Will Focus On Budget This Week

JohnCombest.com -- CDT: Legislative Race Might Lure Presidential Hopefuls

NhNewslinks.com -- Election Is Still Far Off, But Sununu Feels The Heat

Quorum Report -- HC: Excutive Disorder

Sayfie's Review -- '06 Lobbyists Spent Up To $253M To Sway Lawmakers

WisPolitics.com-- Records Spur Questions In Report's Delay

If Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's poll numbers don't rise over the next few months, don't worry, writes Alex Gage, a senior Romney strategist: Romney is "well positioned" -- more than most -- to win the nomination over the long haul.

Gage made this innocuous and fairly difficult-to-deny point in an expectations-lowering memo the campaign sent to a few hundred members of the "Romney for President Leadership." We've obtained the memo from a friendly member of said Leadership Team.

Gage does not disclose any of the campaign's internal polling. Instead, he uses public polls and an historical assessment of small state governors to make the point that Romney is ahead of, say, where Bill Clinton was at the equivalent point in 1991.

Romney, writes Gage, is viewed favorably by more than 80 percent of Republicans who know him. He's performing about his national average in the key early states. And besides -- only a quarter of the electorate is paying attention.

"Observers in the media will inevitably question why our numbers don't immediately rise after being up on the airwaves, but we must remain patient." Remember that "our ads are only airing in a few states," and history shows that "nationwide polling will continue to reflect name recognition until voters start to pay attention to the election."

Well -- any member of the media expecting Romney's poll numbers to jump nationally after running ads in five states should turn in the membership card. But all this provokes the question: if the television ads won't have any effect on Romney's poll ratings in the five states, why are they being run at all?

The full memo is after the jump.

We're not going to do this every week... but just for fun..

1) Hollywood mogul David Geffen, who caused controversy with disparaging remarks about Hillary and Bill Clinton, has previously made headlines for:

A. Being the man behind Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young.

B. A run-in with the California Coastal Commission over public access to the beach at his Malibu compound.

C. Selling the world’s most expensive work of art, Jackson Pollock ’s No. 5, 1948 .

D. A $2-billion bid to buy the Los Angeles Times.

E. All of the above.

2) Which of the following apologies were not uttered by a presidential candidate (or their spouse) this week?

A. “It is not at all what I intended to say, and I would absolutely apologize if any [military families] felt that in some ways it had diminished the enormous courage and sacrifice that they’d shown.”

B. “The truth is, a lot of people in the African-American community were hurt by what I said. I really feel lousy about it. I got involved in politics because of civil rights.”

C. “I’m one who voted for it. I regret that. I wish I could have the vote back. I made a mistake.”

D. “I’m so sorry my husband isn't here. I can promise you that he will be back here. Do expect us to come back to South Carolina with our family.”

E. “[W]hen I heard the interview, when I heard myself, it sounded bad. ‘Them being in another country and they shouldn't be in America.’ That should have never come out. I was like, ‘Damn, I messed that up. Damn, I don't believe that came out my mouth. Damn, that’s not me.”

3) A presidential candidate this week identified _________ as a place “where mothers don’t tell their children someday they can grow up to be president of the United States.”

A. Austria

B. Arizona

C. Chicago public schools

D. Wal-Mart

E. Seneca, South Carolina

4) Which of the following was not said by a Democratic presidential hopeful at the Nevada forum:

A. “How much more chaos could there be in Baghdad than exists today?”

B. “There are two Americas. One America that does the work, another that reaps the reward.”

C. “I don’t think it is a big deal if I get elected president.”

D. “The worst thing we can do is tear each other down.”

E. “I’ve got a $250 suit, you’ve probably got a $2,000 suit.”

5) Hillary Clinton's swing through California this week included a meeting with which group of potential supporters?

A. The Motion Picture Association of America

B. Ballona Valley Preservation League members

C. Latino small business owners

D. Persian Jews

E. The Sisterhood of Traveling Pants [MARISA KATZ]

Sen. John McCain and Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani informed WMUR-TV in New Hampshire today that they will not participate in the April 4 debate -- the event labeled by CNN and WMUR as the "First in the nation" GOP debate.

Not anymore.

McCain will be in the Middle East and Giuliani cited unspecified scheduling conflicts, a person with direct knowledge of the debate refusals said.

CNN's Wolf Blitzer and WMUR's Scott Spradling are the hosts.

Both McCain and Giuliani accepted Nancy Reagan's invitation to participate in the 5/3 debate scheduled for the Reagan Library. [MARC AMBINDER]

The Hotline hears that... ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani has accepted his first debate invitation.

Appropriately enough, it's for the May 3 gathering at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

No word on whether this will be Giuliani's only debate appearance before May.

Nancy Reagan personally invited the Republican presidential candidates to attend. [MARC AMBINDER]

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.

DOUBLE JEOPARDY
Once upon a time, AEI's Norm Orenstein used to tell congressmen who literally lived in their offices for days at a time that they were "making a big mistake" and "jeopardizing their marriages." In an age where several congressman don't even see their office five days a week, is there something else they jeopardizing?

FORMING FRIENDSHIPS -- DC-STYLE
If Washington is a city in which "no one takes friendship personally," as AEI's Michael Novak writes, does this mean opinions about politicos turn just as easily? Or are we, as Washingtonians, such a breed that we don't trust anyone except those we unconditionally love? Novak, focusing on how DC dwellers view the presidency via the press, examines the possibilities and concludes "perceptions are changeable."

BATTLE OF THE BANDS
Although events at The Brookings Institution focused this week on policy, The Brookings Institution announced it will co-sponsor a serious of talks on the presidential race with ABC News. Will the Brookings endeavor mirror the Decision '08 series recently launched by The Center For Strategic And International Studies? As of now, no. The plan? Simply to provide a forum for scholars to debate the and rank '08 hopefuls. Yet the name, "Opportunity '08" has a familiar ring to it1

WHAT'S MORE IMPORTANT: TALENT OR TRAINING?
If the war in Iraq "will last for years," as Heritage Foundation's James Talent believes, then what should Congress call for when it comes to our military -- talent or training? Talented troops always help, but boots are sometimes better than brains -- especially amidst a cold climate. Talent, playing historian and storyteller, makes a case he suggests Democrats should consider before denouncing any nay-sayers.

REAGAN REVISITED
When it comes to the '08 presidential race, does a candidate's personality matter more than politics? AEI's Steven Hayward coupled up with Cato Institute's John Patrick Diggins to address a new book about Ronald Reagan, which touches on this issue. If any '08 hopeful can deliver Reagan's charisma in a debate, Hayward seems to think America's negotiating opportunities abroad could be "limitless."

From The Hotline:

Larry McCarthy is pres. of McCarthy Marcus Hennings, a GOP firm that does political and issue advertising, plus corporate video production. McCarthy served as a press sec. for Sens. Jacob Javits (R-NY) and John Heinz (R-PA), and the NRSC. While working for Roger Ailes, he won the '85 nat'l Emmy for Best Writing in a Documentary. And today, McCarthy is our "Consultant Candid."

What is your proudest moment professionally?

Every ad guy is seeking the Holy Grail of The Perfect Spot. My last Perfect Spot was "Ashley's Story" for Progress for America Voter Fund in 04... the perfect combination of a touching, human story that drove a strong message, raised millions of dollars on its own merits, and, as many Democrats noted, had a decisive impact.

If you could be in any other line of work, what would it be?

I want to finally become my Doppelganger, Steven Spielberg, and direct "Indiana Jones IV."

Where is your happy place?

Watching our daughters play the sport du season, watching our Bernese Mountain Dogs endlessly, optimistically, and futilely chase squirrels, and re-living once again Steve McQueen's motorcycle jumps over the Nazis' barbed wire fence in "The Great Escape."

He's not.. Yet.
BTW: check out the masterful use of regional dialect:

Dem strategist Chris Lehane, "who has not endorsed a candidate," on Obama's response: "It fundamentally undermined their long-term message" (Nagourney, New York Times, 2/23).

More Lehane: "If you're running as a transformative candidate, you have to be careful not to degrade the brand you're offering. Taking a whack at Bill Clinton with Democratic primary voters is like taking a whack at Derek Jeter when you're trying to appeal to Yankee fans" (DeFrank, New York Daily News, 2/23). Still more Lehane: B. Clinton "is as popular with Democratic primary voters as Cal Ripken is with Baltimore Orioles fans" (West, Baltimore Sun, 2/23).

And finally, from Lehane, "the White House spokesman for Bill Clinton": "I think history is pretty clear that those folks who are loyal to the Clintons find the loyalty is really reciprocated -- and that is one of the reasons why so many people have stuck wtih them for so long" (Marinucci, San Francisco Chronicle, 2/23).

What seems to be mattering most in the early stages of WH'08 is "a different sort of standard," writes Paul Starobin in this week's National Journal. "It's the 'authenticity' standard, the winner being the most appealingly 'authentic' -- as in real, not fake or false -- person in the race. The quotation marks are advisable because authenticity is a deceptively difficult concept to define, especially in the political arena. Authenticity may be about manipulated perceptions of 'the real McCoy' as much as it is about the actual existence of such a figure. No matter. For voters, authenticity has become a Holy Grail." Read more ...

From today's Hotline:

Howard Dean.

Want proof that Sen. Barack Obama's running at least a little bit of a traditional campaign? At the first hint of trouble, he throws the staff under the bus. (Come to think of it, John Kerry did the same thing -- unfairly, in the eyes of many -- to Robert Gibbs, too).

Said Obama:

“I told my staff that I don’t want us to be a party to these kinds of distractions because I want to make sure that we’re spending time talking about issues,” Mr. Obama said. “My preference going forward is that we have to be careful not to slip into playing the game as it customarily is played.”

So -- we're trying to figure out the timeline here -- did he not speak to his staff at all until 5pm CST yesterday? When he landed in Des Moines in the late afternoon yesterday, he told reporters: " I just heard about this as I got off the plane." Did the roadshow not brief him appropriately?

He seems to have clearly told his staff to respond politely... are we reading the New York Times story correctly? -- all the while claiming he was not terribly aware of the situation itself.

BTW I: If one is interested in staying above the fray, is it too late to disavow Geffen's comments?

BTW II: If comity is the order of the day, will Obama -- has Obama -- explictly asked his staff and his top fundraisers to (a) not personally criticize his opponents in private and (b) stop any campaign oppo research efforts against Democrats? Where does Obama believe the line is between legitimate disagreements and personal attacks?

Now that ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) put the kibosh on his presidential race, here are some of the free agents he's leaving behind. Iowa Democrats: no longer can you hide behind Gov. Vilsack as a reason for not taking Sen. Hillary Clinton's phone call. No more excuses.

Sen. Tom Harkin -- we bet he'll remain neutral. And why not? He's up in '08 anyway.

Teresa Vilmain -- a legendary political operative and field organizer who almost never talks to the press and is known as a miracle worker inside the party. If she doesn't join Clinton's campaign, be very surprised.

Jerry Crawford -- Vilsack's close friend, a top Des Moines lawyer, Kerry's former Iowa chair, a former DGA finance chair, one of the Democratic Party's top fundraisers. He's blessed with a political mind and a massive rolodex.

Jeff Link: a former Harkin re-election mgr, former Gore state director, former ACT state director and state party strategist, he was "senior communications adviser" to the Vilsack campaign. Link has close ties with senior members of Sen. Barack Obama's campaign.

Link's partner in consulting is Matt Paul, a former dep. chief of staff for Tom Vilsack, mgr for Mike Blouin, and dep. state director for Hillary Clinton.

Travis Brock -- a young veteran of state and national campaigns in Iowa.

Other names: Vilsack's Iowa state director Dusky Terry... campaign manager Craig Varoga.... and communications director Josh Earnest.

Ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack will drop out of the 2008 presidential race today, three independent sources who were briefed on the decision said.

Developing...

The Campaign to Defend the Constitution, which calls itself "an online grassroots movement" to preserve a strict separation between church and state (or between conservative Christians and politics), blast e-mailed reporters last night a blog post entitled "John McCain Visits The Creationists."

We're making an assumption, here, but it's probably fair to say that most of the nation's elite political reporters are comfortable with the theory of evolution. The DefCon folks (they call themselves that) know their audience.

Still, their post strikes us as a little misleading.

Yes, McCain will be the featured speaker at a luncheon in Seattle tomorrow co-sponsored by the Discovery Institute, which is, course, the most visible proponent of "intelligent design" creationism in the country.

The forum itself is not nearly so controversial; he'll deliver the speech at the Seattle World Affairs Council -- a standard McCain appraisal of the state of the world. And the Institute is one of ten co-sponsors.

The Discovery Institute may object to their organization's raison d'etre being reduced to their advocacy of "intelligent design," but click here and point out where we're wrong.

That's not to say that McCain has no sympathy for their agenda. He told the Arizona Star last year that "all points of view" about human origins should be taught in public schools.

"I think that there has to be all points of view presented but they'd got to be fairly presented. To say that we can only choose one line of thinking... one belief... on how people and the world was created... there's nothing wrong with teaching different schools of thought."

But does it belong in science class? "There's enough scientists that believe that it does. This is something that I think all points of view should be presented."

Depending on how the questions are asked, a sturdy majority of Americans say they don't believe that the theory of evolution is true. A solid majority of Americans -- and this drives virtually all scientists, many modernists and all atheists crazy -- believe in some form of intelligent design. McCain is solidly in the American mainstream. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Cox-Backed Bill Passes Preliminary House Vote

Capitol Fax -- Phones Vs. Cable

Georgia Political Digest-- Special Election Set To Fill GA Congressional Seat

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Obama Looks To Be Unifying Force

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Obama In Town?

NhNewslinks.com -- State Smoking Ban Bill Basses In Senate By Large Margin

Quorum Report -- Obama-Rama Feling As Sen. Obama rallies Austin Supportersl

Sayfie's Review -- Bill Seeks Earlier Primary For Florida

WisPolitics.com-- Pay Ranges Could Rise For Top State Jobs

LOS ANGELES – Sen. Hillary Clinton visited deep pocket Dem donors here Thursday in private gatherings that set the stage for a March 24th L.A. fundraiser expected to surpass the $1.3 million scooped up in earlier this week by Sen. Barack Obama.

With all her Thursday events private, HRC’s shuttle through rainy L.A. began with a breakfast put on by supermarket mogul Ron Burkle, then brunch with more donors hosted by cartoon tycoon Haim Saban and later a cocktail reception put on by investor Sim Farar. Burkle is hosting Clinton’s widely anticipated March 24th fundraiser here; one California Dem consultant described the NY senator’s Thursday appearances as akin to, “pre-sales meetings in a sense, for the big fundraiser,” while predicting that this week’s Clinton/Obama spat over Dreamworks mogul David Geffen’s comments will die down - “This was a first scuffle. Fortunately the Academy Awards (on Sunday night) will stop this momentum.”

Sandwiched in between the flesh-pressing with L.A.’s major Clinton donors was HRC’s visit with former Clinton White House deputy assistant John Emerson, plus an afternoon meet-and-greet with agents and other Hollywood suits at Creative Artists Agency and finally a Beverly Hills dinner with Iranian-American donors. Not stopping to speak to reporters, Clinton was seen being whisked into the CAA reception area, with Daily Variety quoting an attendee of that 90-minute gathering saying that Clinton, “was incredibly well-received.”

HRC spends Friday in Northern California including a noon fundraiser in San Francisco. Along with Obama’s high-profile $1.3 million Beverly Hills fundraiser earlier this week, Clinton’s other `08 rivals also have been seeking California limelight and dollars; former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack flew west last week to chat with Jay Leno on The Tonight Show set, and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) comes to L.A. this weekend to hold three fundraisers. [DAVID FINNIGAN]

Pundits still liked to talk about the Clinton/Obama battle, but with actual news to report on Anna Nicole Smith, cable TV went wild with coverage. But here's an update on another important trial:

CNN's Todd, on the Scooter Libby jury: "They have not asked any questions of the judge in a little more than 11 hours of deliberations. What they have asked for are some Post-it notes, some masking tape, a flip chart, and some pictures of witnesses, indicating that they might be trying to set up some kind of a timeline or a chart of who Scooter Libby talked to and when" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/22).

MSNBC's Shuster: "They went seven hours today and, of course, did not return a verdict. They will come back tomorrow -- 11-and-a-half hours, they have been deliberating Scooter Libby's fate so far" ("Hardball," 2/22).

A FAMILIAR FACE RETURNS TO TV

Tom Daschle, on why he endorsed Barack Obama: "I remember, back in the '60s, when I was just beginning to be interested in politics and government, how inspired I was by certain leaders at the time, the Kennedys and Martin Luther King. I think Barack has some of that same magical ability to communicate, to connect, to unify, to inspire. And that's what I see in him."

On Sen. Tim Johnson's health: "He is doing so well. I'm real encouraged. He is actually doing some work from his room. He's communicating. He looks very healthy. And he has got every reason to believe that he will be back in the saddle, on the job, some time in the next several months" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/22).

NO COWARDLY LION HERE

And Obama hosted "Crucibles of Courage" on the Biography Channel last night.

Obama, in his intro: "I'm Sen. Barack Obama. Today we reflect on the greatest moments in the lives of a handful of trail blazers -- whether through their own determination or by circumstance one choice, one risk, one decision that they made changed their country and the world."

He then introduced profiles of Thurgood Marshall, Marian Anderson, Jesse Owens, Shirley Chisholm, and Muhammad Ali (Biography Channel, 2/22). [EMILY GOODIN]

An unqualified victory for Sen. Barack Obama's legal team, although the matter awaits a vote by the commissioners themselves.

The draft proposes that Senator Obama may solicit and receive contributions for the 2008 general election without waiving his eligibility to receive public funds for the general election, under the conditions described in the request, that is:

Contributions designated for the general election will be kept in a separate escrow account;
Only the campaign treasurer and chief operating officer will have access to this account; and
The funds in this account will not be used for any purpose.
Under the draft proposal, if Senator Obama wins the Democratic nomination and decides to receive public funding for the general election, then he must refund all general election contributions within 60 days of certifying his eligibility for public funds.

Castles Made Of Sand...fall, eventually?.

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Los Angeles still loves ya, Hillary Clinton.

Hours after her campaign's contretemps with mogul David Geffen produced a string of stories questioning Hollywood's loyalty to the Clintons, Sen. Clinton flew to Los Angeles for several major fundraisers.

First, we hear that Madonna. Magic Johnson and Warren Beatty joined Clinton for a morning kibbitz at the home of billionaire Ron Burkle. A Clinton spokesman said he had no information about their attendence.

Other events on HRC's schedule today include receptions hosted by Sim Farrar and longtime Clinton supporter/entertainment mogul Haim Saban. (Hat tip, Lynn Sweet). [MARC AMBINDER]

An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.

Organization: The National Rifle Association (NRA)

According to NRA Public Affairs Dir. Andrew Arulanandam, the NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) typically endorses candidates after the nat'l conventions. Approaching '08, the NRA-PVF will survey all WH '08ers (regardless of party affiliation) on issues of interest to the association.

After taking the answers of the party nominees into consideration, as well as their voting records and public statements, the NRA-PVF determines whether or not to endorse a candidate. Note: The NRA has not given its endorsement in every recent WH presidential contest (as in '92 and '96) [AMY DUDLEY]

Now that Hillary's making her WH bid, will the country ever see Bill Clinton the same way? Can HRC run on Bill's record without scratching it? Hotline's John Mercurio takes a look through this week's PolitiScope.

The WH Bulletin (subscription required) reported this morning on growing efforts to draft Fred Thompson, the Law and Order actor, former Senator, and current Paul Harvey replacement on ABC Radio. The report notes slyly that Thompson has yet to endorse any '08 candidate and hasn't disclaimed an interest in the '08 race.

Thompson, the former Tennessee Republican senator who’s now a Law & Order prosecutor and regular replacement for radio host Paul Harvey, is being urged by supporters to consider entering the presidential race, according to associates. “The draft Fred movement is growing,” says one ally. They say that Thompson is flattered by the suggestions, but it is unclear if he is turning away their appeals. The effort is growing among conservative blogs, where several boards are pushing the folksy straight-talker to get in.

Well, for one thing, Mr. Thompson's ABC News contract probably prohibits him from saying anything in public about ongoing political campaigns. Also, while Thompson is conservative and has a record to back it up, he's not and never has been a member of the conservative intellectual elite. He's about as right-leaning as the old Mitt Romney + Mike Huckabee divided by two.

Most importantly, Sen. John McCain is one of Thompson's best friends. They talk regularly. A source close to Thompson said that Thompson will not run for president, period.

And that's the rest of the story. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

NC is the only southern state which holds its GOV elections during presidential election years. This would presumably be a boost for most GOP GOV nominees, yet NC hasn't elected one since '88, while every other southern state has had a GOP governor at some point over the past 6 years. (And no, WV is not a southern state, since it was specifically created to NOT be part of the South.)

Harvey Kornberg's Quorum Report, a member of the Hotline Political Network, reports that the TX GOP this a.m. announced a "major new event" for the '08 cycle -- a statewide straw poll on 8/31 in Ft. Worth.

The party expects at least 15K GOPers to participate.

The other major straw polls:

The biggie in Ames, IA on 8/11.

And on or about 9/24, the MI GOP will hold a straw poll on Mackinac Island.

Rudy Giuliani has picked up the edorsement of Rep. Charlie Dent (PA). According to Giuliani's team, Dent plans "to enlist other" PA GOPers to follow suit.

Dent, explaining his support: "Giuliani successfully led New York City and became known as 'America’s Mayor' because of his dynamic approach to tackling the challenges facing America’s largest city... It takes a determined fiscal leader to make the kind of transformation he achieved as Mayor of New York – and his record speaks for itself." (Hotline reporting)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Governor Defends Her Border Efforts

Capitol Fax -- Local Elections Roundup

Georgia Political Digest-- Would Feb. 5 Primary Put Georgia In Race?

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Obama Looks To Be Unifying Force

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: More Anti-War Activists Arrested At McCaskill's office

NhNewslinks.com -- House Passes "Deep Pockets" Bill

Quorum Report -- Business Leaders Hire Lobbyists To Battle Dirty Coal

Sayfie's Review -- Post: Giuliani, Obama Seek Local Dollars

WisPolitics.com-- Taxpayers Pay For Lobbying

Anybody else still scratching their head over the Clinton decision to go after Obama over the loss of Hollywood donor David Geffen? Forget what some reporters are reading in to the motivation behind Howard Wolfson's decision (that is baiting Obama over his "above it all" rhetoric). The bottom line: the media has the two leading Democrats fighting over who has more support in Hollywood. Could Karl Rove or any other major Republican strategist ask for a better outcome? But back to the Clinton decision for a minute. A few observations:

-- The Clintons seem hypersensitive about her past.
-- The reaction to the comment was way out of proportion to the comment itself.
-- Is it that hard to find a major Clinton donor who hasn't bashed Obama off the record?
-- This isn't how you avoid being Swiftboated. You can't respond to supposed "Swift Boat" attacks that you have no way of disproving factually.
-- Hollywood liberal and Mo Dowd. That's exactly the frame Clinton needs to be identified with?
-- Vilsack and Richardson must really believe that only Clinton will consider them for the VP slot since both took the opportunity to help her and use Clinton talking points to hit Obama.

As for whether Obama should have responded or not. It's debatable. Yesterday probably wasn't a good day for Clinton and after Obama responded and it became Clinton v. Obama, it turned into a bad day for the Democrats who some had thought were making progress at moving beyond the "Hollywood" stereotype. [CHUCK TODD/MARC AMBINDER]

When cable news wasn't talking about Britney Spears or Anna Nicole Smith, they were dissecting the dustup between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Tony Blair's decision to withdrawal British troops from Iraq:

James Carville, on David Geffen: "A Hollywood guy like that, you try to get him to open his wallet and shut his mouth, because, inevitably, he gets around Maureen Dowd, he's going to make a fool of himself."

Carville, on Geffen saying he's tired of hearing him on TV: "I will tell you what, Mr. Geffen. You can have my TV time. I will take your money" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/21).

HRC comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "Our expectation was that Senator Obama, who was running a campaign premised on changing our politics, who has decried the politics of slash and burn, would denounce the comments, say that these comments don't represent his thinking or his campaign. We were, frankly, surprised that he didn't do that. It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them."

More: "It makes you wonder whether or not he agrees with them and whether or not the campaign put Mr. Geffen up to this" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).

Variety's Johnson, on the L.A. scene: "I detect a little bit of the people who are for Barack tend to be on the left side in Hollywood. And I find a lot of the most passionate Barack Obama supporters always mention the war. They mention the fact that he's been against the war from the start. Hillary's people are the traditional Democrats who have been behind her for quite a long time" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/21).

MOVING OUT

CNN's Oakley: "Blair, a prime minister keen to focus on other aspects of his political legacy, like Northern Ireland and the Middle East peace process, feels he's taken a symbolic step forward with the announcement of British troop reductions. But other politicians are suspicious that his move owes as much to forthcoming rounds of elections in Britain as it does to the strategic situation on the ground in Iraq" ("Situation Room," 2/21).

FNC's Hume: "Blair insisted a strong contingent of British troops would remain in Iraq until at least 2008, and that his forces had no intention of backing down" ("Special Report," 2/21).

AL GOV 2014

Ex-BB player Charles Barkley was in the "Situation Room" and said he wants to go into politics:

Barkley: "I want to be a politician. I think I understand how the system works. I think a lot of politicians are corrupt. And it's about time we put some people in there who are going to look out for the majority of the people instead of the rich people."

More: "I just bought a house before the end of the year in Alabama. You have to live there for seven years. So hopefully in 2014, I can run for governor of Alabama."

On his political affiliation: "I'm an Independent. I think the Republicans are terrible and the Democrats are not much better. So I'm really an Independent. ... I said one time I was rich like a Republican. And I still am, I might add. But I think the Republicans have took the country in a terrible situation. And let's get one thing straight about the last elections. The Democrats did not win. They won because the other team wasn't any good."

On WH '08: "I'm really pulling for Barack Obama, John Edwards and Senator Clinton. I think all three of these are great candidates. I'm really pulling for Barack because I consider him a casual friend of mine. I supported John Edwards last time. I think it would be great if a woman became president of the United States."

On being told he has to pick one: "I'm going with Senator Barack Obama" (CNN, 2/21). [EMILY GOODIN]

The Hotline hears that Rep. Chip Pickering (R-MS) will serve as MS Chair, Southern Co-Chair, and member of the U.S. House Whip Team for Sen. John McCain.

You might not recognize Pickering's name, but you'll know his face -- he had an unwitting cameo in Borat. A very conservative House member from MS, some believe Pickering is being groomed as Sen. Trent Lott's successor. (Pickering began his political career by working for Lott.) Pickering is the second successful Mississippi Chip Pickering. In '02, Charles W. Pickering Sr.'s nomination to the 5th circuit court of appeals was blocked by Democrats. Pickering retired, joined a swanky law-and-lobby firm, and wrote a polemical, popular book about how liberals had hijacked the federal judiciary.

Given McCain's dalliance with -- heck, his stewardship of -- the Gang of 14, the younger Pickering may be called upon to sooth the nerves of conservatives who care about judicial nomination. Both Pickerings are active in the Southern Baptist Church in MS; the elder Pickering was president of the church's MS branch.

With the Dem WH '08ers (minus Barack Obama, of course) busy at the AFSCME candidate forum in Carson City, NV, this afternoon, the RNC marked the occasion by sending out a series of press releases so supporters can "meet" the Dem field. Each candidate got an individual release presenting several pages of unflattering quotes about him or her --- plus a particularly snappy, one-line summary:

Meet Joe Biden, "An Undisciplined, Self-Described Northeast Liberal, In Love With The Sound Of His Own Voice."

There's Hillary Rodham Clinton, "A Calculating, Divisive, Lifelong Liberal With Political Baggage."

Don't forget Chris Dodd, "A New England Liberal, Past His Prime, On An Unrealistic Vanity Run For The White House."

Re-introduce yourself to John Edwards, "A Hypocritical, Inexperienced Liberal With A New Negative Attitude."

There's no escape for Obama, "An Inexperienced, Insulated, Arrogant, Unabashed Liberal."

Check out Bill Richardson, "A Self-Promoting, Washington Insider With A Controversial Record."

And, last but certainly not least, get to know Tom Vilsack, "A Tax-Hiking, Mismanaging, 'Blip' Candidate With No Foreign Policy Experience."

Uh... poor Dennis Kucinich.

... Is half the battle for McCain.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

LOS ANGELES - Sen. Barack Obama picked up about $1.3 million in Hollywood money for his ’08 campaign Tuesday night at a posh Beverly Hills fundraiser which followed a large afternoon rally in one of L.A.’s poorest neighborhoods.

“We’re all shopping,” said former Mad About You sitcom star Paul Reiser in describing celebrities interested in but not totally committed to the Illinois Dem instead of Hollywood’s long-established ‘08 favorite Sen. Hillary Clinton.

At least 300 actors, filmmakers and studio executives paid $2,300 per ticket (the maximum allowed federal campaign donation) to attend the Beverly Hilton dinner organized for Obama by Dreamworks SKG studio moguls Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen. It was Katzenberg who announced the $1.3 million figure, according to a pool report of the dinner by San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Carla Marinucci. (Event organizers barred all other news media.)

“Don’t sell yourselves short,’’ Obama said in his 25-minute speech, per the pool report. “You are the storytellers of our age.” But after a humorous introduction from his wife Michelle, Obama added that in his change-is-in-the-air campaign, “the starring roles don’t go to me. They go to the people of America.’’

Spielberg called Obama, “great,” and actress Jennifer Anniston called him, “lovely,” the pool report said. Attending too were singer Jackson Browne, actor Ben Stiller, filmmaker Ron Howard and actors Morgan Freeman, Eddie Murphy and Mario Van Peebles.

The swank fundraiser came after Obama charmed several thousand supporters at a large outdoor afternoon rally in South Los Angeles, wrapping up a three-day fundraising blitz up and down the campaign cash-rich Golden State. Obama’s tie-less, shirt-sleeves-rolled-up 30-minute speech was anchored in his campaign’s ongoing themes of changing America and ending the Iraq war and foreign oil dependence. “We fund both sides of the war on terrorism,” he told the crowd.

Orange County, Cal., businesswoman and soccer mom Tanya Hutchison said she epitomized the divided loyalties of African-American women equally attracted to Obama and Clinton. “I love Hillary too and she’s a minority and I want to support both,” said the mother of five, who runs a women’s empowerment web site. “I’m not 100 percent on either.”

Well-known California Dem faces were absent from the rally. U.S. Rep. Diane Watson (D-CA) attended the rally along with some Los Angeles City Council members, but noticeably absent was L.A.’s always camera-ready Democratic Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, whose major donors include supermarket mogul and Clinton supporter Ron Burkle.

Though only one reporter was allowed into the dinner, some attendees offered their opinions after leaving the early evening event;

- Rev. Jesse Jackson said his stopping by Obama’s fundraiser was, “quite coincidental” and that he was in L.A. working on some trade and education issues. As for Obama, “Barack has my vote. He’s from Illinois.” He also described former Sen. John Edwards as, “a sleeper.”

- Quentin Tarantino and Al Gore film producer Lawrence Bender said Obama, “is my candidate. He’s a force or nature.” (Obama on Tuesday praised Gore’s Bender-produced film, “An Inconvenient Truth,” saying that thanks to this Oscar-nominated documentary, the issue of global warming, “suddenly is in everyone’s living room.”)

- Grammy-winning Dixie Chicks lead singer Natalie Maines said Obama is her ’08 choice for now - “early on.” She added that aside from fundraising, the real point of Tuesday’s dinner was that, “everyone was gettin’ a feel for him, for the first time.”

- Former Paramount Pictures CEO and longtime Democratic Party activist Sherry Lansing said Obama was, “spectacular” but that she has loyalties also to Clinton and Edwards.

Longtime L.A. political consultant Steve Barkan said Obama has generated so much excitement among California Dems partly because, “people want to see, touch, feel.” He echoed his fellow Dems in praising what he said is the wealth of ’08 candidates including Obama, Clinton, Edwards and former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, combining into what Barkan called the party’s, “Hilla-bam-ward-son." [DAVID FINNEGAN]

Finnigan is a freelance reporter in California and can be reached at david.finnigan@yahoo.com .

An insurgent candidate when he last ran for president, John McCain is hoping to win over the establishment crowd from Wall Street and big media at a three-day conference in Deer Valley, Utah, next week. Among the 165 chief executives expected to attend -- “the chiefs, not their deputies,” says one insider -- are media mogul Rupert Murdoch, ad firm chief Ann Fudge of Young & Rubicam, CBS executive Les Moonves and Sirius radio CEO Mel Karmazin.

The Arizona Senator had some of these big establishment names in his corner in 2000, when he challenged President George W. Bush for the Republican nomination. Viacom and Goldman Sachs employees gave the Senator $96,000 seven years ago, for example, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But they gave even more generously to Democratic nominee Al Gore: $166,000. Fully one-third of McCain’s fund-raising in 2000 came in the form of small donations under $200.

The Senator’s entrée to next week’s high-level networking event is James B. “Jimmy” Lee Jr., vice chairman of JP Morgan Chase, which sponsors the annual conference in Utah mountain country. Lee is also co-chairing McCain’s presidential exploratory committee, and he has arranged time in the schedule for important people to get to know the Senator. An overnight stay, a keynote address by McCain and a fireside chat with PBS interviewer Charlie Rose are on the itinerary.

With so many New Yorkers attending the conference, which begins Feb. 28, it’s significant that one will be absent: former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. McCain supporters are consciously trying to make inroads into Giuliani’s presumed fund-raising base. McCain will follow up with a fund-raiser in Phoenix on the evening of March 2, and then jet into New York for a March 8 gala. [ANNE MICHAUD]

Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain’s Insider political newsletter based in New York City.

From today's Hotline:

IA's "Caucus Cooler" blog compares '00 vs. '08 attendance at the Five County GOP Dinner in Orange City, IA: "It was this event that gave President Bush a lot of momentum 8 years ago. Bush turned out an enormous crowd which furthered the conventional wisdom that he was strong with conservatives and his election was inevitable. ... But word from Northwest Iowa is that Romney didn't get the same boost from this event last night. Only about 150 tickets were sold and the attendance was somewhere near 100. For 5 counties that is a low turnout."

(ED -- Is the picture cute or creepy?)

Writes Pres. Clinton: "Am I enthusiastic about my wife's campaign for president? You bet I am. I know her better than anybody on earth, and she's got the best combination of mind and heart of everybody I've ever known."

"All across the country, Hillary is campaigning with the signature wisdom, grace, and humor that make her a great candidate. I know that if we all work hard enough, those same traits will make her an even better president."

"You and I know something about waging and winning presidential campaigns."

Read the rest of the e-mail after the jump.

The inevitable conclusory statement from Howard Wolfson of the Clinton campaign. "You Refuse To Disavow X But You Said Y"

The subtle message: Obama's campaign ain't as high and mighty as it claims to be.

BTW: who ever imagined the two would get into a spat over David Geffen? Is that a parody of Democrats, or what?

“By refusing to disavow the personal attacks from his biggest fundraiser against Senator Clinton and President Clinton, Senator Obama has called into serious question whether he really believes his own rhetoric. How can Senator Obama denounce the politics of slash & burn yesterday while his own campaign is espousing the politics of trash today?

“When one of Senator Clinton’s supporters made an inappropriate statement, her campaign disavowed it immediately and the supporter apologized for his words. Why won’t Senator Obama do the same?”

The Obama camp has responded to Howard Wolfson's demands. From spokesperson Robert Gibbs: "We aren’t going to get in the middle of a disagreement between the Clintons and someone who was once one of their biggest supporters. It is ironic that the Clintons had no problem with David Geffen when was raising them $18 million and sleeping at their invitation in the Lincoln bedroom. It is also ironic that Senator Clinton lavished praise on Monday and is fully willing to accept today the support of South Carolina State Sen. Robert Ford, who said if Barack Obama were to win the nomination, he would drag down the rest of the Democratic Party because ’he's black.’"

"Who am I? Why am I here?" is one of the 10 most memorable debate lines in modern presidential campaign history. The line, of course, was uttered by the late Adm. James Stockdale at the ’92 vice presidential debate, where Stockdale tried to reassure the country that Ross Perot’s (I) important first decision wasn't a bad one.

While funny at the time, the line turned out to be the beginning of the end (a second time) for the Perot campaign, because Stockdale did nothing to reassure anyone of Perot's capacity to be the leader of the free world.

The quote itself is one I always like to apply to presidential candidates: Who are they? Why are they here?

A successful presidential campaign needs two simple things -- a dynamic candidate who can relate to the American people and a message that fits the times. The most successful candidates are able to blend their persona and message together in order to become the right candidate at the right time (e.g. Ronald Reagan in 1980, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992). In other years, their messages or personas would have been problems; instead, they became the core strengths for their successful bids.

Two candidates this cycle seem so intent on answering the second question -- why are they here -- that they’ve made the first question much more difficult for the average voter to understand.

Both John Edwards (D) and Mitt Romney (R) have been going through political evolutions that seem to make perfect political sense but just haven't felt right so far, at least to thosecovering the campaign. Frankly, if the media filter isn't buying the change, the voters might not, either [CHUCK TODD].

Continue Reading On The Trail.

Hillary Clinton's campaign apparently didn't take too kindly to the harsh rhetoric from L.A. music mogul David Geffen, courtesy of today's Maureen Dowd. Geffen, who is backing Barack Obama, called Bill Clinton "reckless" and clearly is still upset that Clinton didn't grant a pardon to cause celeb native American Leonard Peltier. More Geffen: "Marc Rich getting pardoned? An oil-profiteer expatriate who left the country rather than pay taxes or face justice?"

Clinton chief spokesperson Howard Wolfson, in a release this a.m., is "demanding that" Obama "disavow personal attacks" from Geffen. Wolfson: "While Senator Obama was denouncing slash and burn politics yesterday, his campaign's finance chair was viciously and personally attacking Senator Clinton and her husband. If Senator Obama is indeed sincere about his repeated claims to change the tone of our politics, he should immediately denounce these remarks, remove Mr. Geffen from his campaign and return his money. While Democrats should engage in a vigorous debate on the issues, there is no place in our party or our politics for the kind of personal insults made by Senator Obama's principal fundraiser."

We're waiting on a response from Obama's camp. And while we wait, we'd love to speculate as to why the Clinton folks chose pick this battle? It's not as if they are used to getting good Dowd columns. And considering that this may be the first serious back-n-forth between Clinton and Obama of the campaign, it could end up stepping on the NV Dem-AFSCME cattle call. Do the Clinton folks want to see how quickly Obama backs down (if he does)? Do they simply want to highlight Obama's Hollywood ties? Or are some Clinton folks simply mad at Geffen? Has he said harsher things that we don't know about?

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Mayor, Councilor Asked To Stop Unlawful Behavior

Capitol Fax -- Question Of The Day

Georgia Political Digest-- Lawmakers Eyeing Earlier Presidential Primaries

Iowa Politics-- Senate Passes Stem-Cell Bill

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Iraq War Protesters Target Democrats

NhNewslinks.com -- Hodes Ttalks War, Economy During Visit

Quorum Report -- Judge Says Governor Overstepped Bounds

Sayfie's Review -- AP: Clinton Campaigns In Miami's Black Community

WisPolitics.com-- WisPolitics Election Blog: Clifford, Ziegler to Meet Tomorrow in First Forum

With British PM Tony Blair announcing this a.m. a withdrawal date for British troops, TV speculated what this would mean for the WH:

CNN's Malveaux: "The White House is really trying to paint this as a success story. ... The White House saying that this is simply a success, a sign that things are working in Basra" ("Situation Room," 2/20).

MSNBC's Scarborough: "The news couldn't come at a worse time for a president who's watching his own party as they eat their own" ("Scarborough Country," 2/20).

ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "That's obviously a big, big development, a big story, both militarily and politically. Politically, it will leave President Bush ... with much more isolation. ... That's going to give ammunition to people who say, even with a surge in American troops, once we leave, that there's going to be a slaughter" ("AC 360," 2/20).

Newsweek's Fineman: "The American public's already extremely dubious about the war in general, and the surge in particular. Even if they don't want us to pull every last soldier out there tomorrow, they want us to be gone. And they're naturally going to ask, If the British can go, why can't we?" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/20).

DEVAL DIVULGES NOTHING

Gov. Deval Patrick (D-MA) was in the "Situation Room":

On who he'll endorse in WH '08: "I do expect to get involved in the race, including in the primary, but, for the time being -- I have been in office less than two months -- I have got to concentrate on my knitting right here."

On Mitt Romney: "Governor Romney deserves some credit for helping be a part of the coalition that brought us a health reform legislation, a very big and broad step forward. And I'm proud of that. It falls to us, now, to implement that. And we are working on that very hard" (CNN, 2/20).

AND THE LIBBY TRIAL GOES TO THE JURY

MSNBC's Shuster: "The headline is that both sides were very emotional. Ted Wells at the very end broke down and had tears in his eyes. ... And prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald finished with a flourish, getting very emotional himself as he said the defense wants you to think that you should be angry about this prosecution" ("Hardball," 2/20).

Newsweek's Isikoff: "What today's closing arguments really underscored is why the White House was so nervous about this trial, why they were so reluctant to talk anything about it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/20).

BILL KEEPS ON TRYING

FNC's O'Reilly broadcast his show from L.A.: "I tried to buy a ticket to the Obama fundraiser. I had my $2,300, much of it in pennies, ready to go. But the Obama people would not sell me a ticket. I don't know why" ("O'Reilly Factor," 2/20). [EMILY GOODIN]

Some wag wanted to make sure that as we, the media, build Sen. John McCain up, we also tear him down.

In that vein, here's a clip of McCain actually saying what that oppo floating around has him saying. (The video was destined for posting on YouTube, our source insists, but we decided to pre-empt him/her for the traffic.)

Again, it's one thing to read it, it's another thing to see it and hear it.

BTW: Is this the first YouTube war between different candidates' supporters?

MCCAIN:

“But we all know, and it's obvious, that if we repeal Roe v. Wade tomorrow, thousands of young American women would be performing illegal and dangerous operations. I want us to be a party of inclusion. I think that we can all be members of the Republican party whether we are pro-choice or pro-life because we share the same goal and that is the elimination of abortion. Because it is an unpleasant and terrible procedure. We think -- I think that we must go back to the party platform of 1980 and '84. We include people who have specific disagreements who share our same goals.”

Was that all McCain said?

Check out the sentence that's not on the clip.

Full quote: “I am proud of a 17-year voting record of pro-life positions. And I adhere to that position. I believe this issue of the repeal of Roe v. Wade is important. I favor the ultimate repeal of Roe v. Wade. But we all know, and it's obvious, that if we repeal Roe v. Wade tomorrow...."

Which, basically, is the position of Pres. Bush, isn't it?

Being a "maverick" in some sense of the word (once synonymous with the AZ Senator), John McCain traded 2/17's Senate debate on the non-binding Iraq resolution for a long weekend of campaigning - with stops throughout IL, OH, IA, FL and SC. A more conservatively charged straight-talk express was in full motion, aiming to tout McCain's most conservative credentials at each turn, from his unending support for the Iraq war and a significant troop increase (going so far as to say that 20,000 troops might not be enough), to an uninhibited call for overturning Roe vs. Wade, to a "private," yet well publicized meeting with evangelical leaders at the National Religious Broadcaster's Convention in Orlando, FL. His harsh critique of ex-Sec/Def Donald Rumsfeld, saying "he will go down in history as one of the worst secretaries of defense in history," was also well received in SC.

Judging from coverage, both local and nat'l, McCain's decision to skip the "political stunt" in DC paid off, gaining key conservative support in competitive states. New York Times's Nagourney: "After hearing Mr. McCain speak, some said his support for Mr. Bush had gone some distance in mitigating reservations they had about him, including his record of being critical of Mr. Bush." Others likened his campaign presence to the McCain of '99 with the free flowing and informal nature of this weekend’s lineup. Washington Post's Balz: "There were flashes of the old McCain," as he "decried" the GOP that has "lost its way" and "punctuated question-and-answer sessions with his particular brand of humor." In a reference to his supposedly ethanol-position rooted reasoning for skipping the IA caucuses in ’00, McCain quipped in Des Moines, "I had my glass of ethanol this morning, and I'm feeling good."

Top it off with two endorsements at the SC rally from ex-Sen. Phil Gramm and ex-Gov. Frank Keating as well as the news of ex-Sen. Mike DeWine and Sen. John Thune's support, McCain certainly knew how to spend his long President's Day Weekend: fine tuning his well oiled campaign machine and doing everything he can to celebrate the holiday as a president himself in '08. The straight-talk express is shining even brighter these days in light of the media mindset forming around a certain other top WH ’08 GOPer labeled as a conservative flip-flopper. [AMY DUDLEY]

Hold on to your mice -- the Blogometer's own Conn Carroll gives us an online tour.

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

While researching a National Journal article on ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's evolution on abortion and gay rights, we came across transcripts of his 2002 gubernatorial debate with Dem Shannon O'Brien.

An anonymous YouTuber obtained the actual video. As you listen to the exchange below, be reminded that you're listening to Romney talk about abortion only five years ago.

His only difference with O'Brien -- Romney did not support a chance in the age of consent law to 16, preferring to keep it at 18. Of the state's judicial bypass, Romney said, "So far, in Massachusetts history, when a young woman has gone to a judge, not one single time has there been a denial of that permission."

On the laws generally: "I will preserve them, I will protect them, I will enforce them."

From today's Hotline:

With so few Senate seats potentially "in play" in '08, we thought we'd remind folks of the last time 1 or fewer seats changed hands. The year? 1990. The seat: MN SEN (Wellstone for Boschwitz). The same cycle of SEN seats we're entering in now.

On Sunday, Sen. Hillary Clinton picked up the endorsement of SC State Sen. David Mack III. The last time we checked, Sen. Mack was a public supporter of Sen. Joe Biden. Mr. Mack is a talk show host and small business owner, and one of the politicians that outside journalists call to get the skinny on politics. Was it something Biden said?

Over the weekend, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) endorsed Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), an important but not unexpected development. Thune's father served with McCain's grandfather in the Navy, and the two have publicly flirted. Recall how Thune was the '04 cycle's Barack Obama for Republicans. He was a Giant Killer, defeating Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) , and has been, for more than two years, on many pundits' short lists for the Republican vice presidential nomination. Thune tells the Washington Post that he somehow convinced McCain to promise to appoint "guys like Roberts and Alito" to the Supreme Court. (McCain today announced the endorsement of Sen. Mike DeWine (R-OH).

Has McCain always been pro-life? CBN's David Brody uses some suspiciously detailed research to get at the answer. Yes -- but McCain hasn't always been favor of overturning Roe. Brody's conclusion: "So, to me, the question for John McCain isn't really whether he is pro-life or not. The question for John McCain is if he's President, how strongly will he fight for the pro-life issues including using his soapbox to speak out on the life issue and the eventual repeal of Roe vs Wade?"

An argument we often hear from Romney acolytes is that while McCain voted the right way for a longer period of time, there ain't no zealout like a convert.

Speaking of Romney, check out the names on his Georgia Leadership Team: "Serving on Governor Romney's statewide team will be House Speaker Pro Tempore Mark Burkhalter, Congressman John Linder, Congressman Phil Gingrey, Congressman Tom Price, Eric J. Tanenblatt, Cobb County Commissioner Sam Olens, Oscar N. Persons, Fred Cooper and Nancy Coverdell." Mrs. Coverdell is the wife of the late Sen. Paul Coverdell, a beloved figure in the state.

Finally, Ex-Rep. Tommy Thompson picked up the support of ex IA 01 House candidate.ex IA House approps chair Bill Dix. Dix will be general chair of Thompson's exploratory committee.

A sixty second spot, airing for five days in select markets in MI, FL, IA, NH and SC.

The text follows the jump.

We saw this ad on Facebook.

BTW: haven't joined the Hotline's Facebook group? What are you waiting for?

http://harvard.facebook.com/group.php?gid=2236360109

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

AZ Political News-- Dems In Legislature Write To Bush Opposing Surge

Capitol Fax -- Reform And Renewal - Where’s The Check?

Georgia Political Digest-- Chambliss: Credit Troops' War Time For Retirement

Iowa Politics-- Senate Passes Stem-Cell Bill

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Bond Off To Asia; Iraq Opponents Blast His Stance

NhNewslinks.com -- Hodes: Diplomacy, Economic Reconstruction Needed In Iraq

Quorum Report -- Democrats Must Address Reforms, Conway SaysTo Lee Students

Sayfie's Review -- Tribune: GOP Warned Not To Move Up Primary

WisPolitics.com-- McGee To Take Recall Fight 'To The Street,' Drops Election Challenge

RICHMOND, VA -- It took less than a minute.

Taking the mic at a reception prior to the Virginia Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday, Barack Obama thanked Gov. Tim Kaine for endorsing him – the first from a governor outside of a candidate’s home state. “It’s a testimony to our friendship, it’s a testimony to Tim’s courage. And it’s a testimony that Mark Warner’s not running,” Obama said.

The crowd of VIPs roared, and then began to chant: “VP! VP! VP!” Smiling, Obama only referred to his and Warner’s matching blue ties. “I want you to notice how we’re dressed tonight,” he said.

Candidate or not, Virginia's former governor still was the favorite son. Obama paid his dues, saying he’s “taking advantage of folks on the rebound.” “We have been enjoying incredible support from a lot of Warner supporters. And I think it’s because these three men represent where the country wants to go,” Obama said, referring to Warner, Kaine and former Gov. Doug Wilder.

Obama’s presence was clearly a factor in what was a record crowd of 4,000 at the Richmond Convention Center. Hillary Clinton signs lined the street outside, and she, Wes Clark and John Edwards had volunteers on hand. But the overwhelming majority of attendees crowded the Obama campaign’s table before and after the dinner.

Still, not everyone was ready to follow Kaine’s lead in endorsing Obama, preferring to keep an open mind this early in the race. Warner himself simply said: “We’ve got great candidates.” And Wilder, the nation’s first African American governor, had praise for Obama but told Hotline after: “As you know we weigh everything. And we’ll be talking.”

What everyone could agree on was that Virginia, after two straight gubernatorial wins and a landmark Senate win, would be in play November 2008. “I expect to be in Virginia a lot,” Obama said. [MIKE MEMOLI]

The Hotline has learned that Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will air his first campaign advertisement in Iowa. Beginning tomorrow, the 30-second spot will air on network television affiliates in Des Moines, and possibly on stations in other markets. The buy will last through 2/25.

Brad Grey, the chairman and CEO of Paramount and everyone's favorite Soprano producer, has agreed to raise money for ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Grey plans to endorse Giuliani next week, two sources close to the Giuliani campaign confirmed.

Worried you missed a few Washington whispers? Fear not. Scholars can play pundits, too. Here's the weekly roundup from DC's top five think tanks.

WHY, CAN'T WE ALL GET ALONG?
While Iraq remains at the top of President Bush's agenda, Afghanistan inched a bit closer to the top over at AEI. Bush emphasized his desire to take a multilateral approcah - surprising some in the audience who consider his push for a surge of troops in Iraq far different from that. Bush, on Afghanistan: "We will train you, we will help you and we will stand with you..."

BIDEN-ING HIS TIME
In a packed room full of press, onlookers, and Congressional officials, Sen. Joe Biden (DE) mapped out his five-point plan for Iraq at The Brookings Institution yesterday, which he crafted alongside Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb. Alhough Biden touted his plan, as the greatest factor setting him apart from other '08ers, could there also be a few unspoken similarities? And, as serious as he is, what sort of statements bring out his sense of humor?

IT JUST TAKES TALENT
Over at The Heritage Foundation, former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) addressed Bush's plans to prepare the army to send more troops to Iraq. Pushing for the health and wellness of our troops, Talent proposed a few ways to "rightsize" the army for a new course which lies ahead.

SOUL SEARCHING
If GOPers hope to run the next Congress, Cato Institute's Michael Tanner suggests they consider a new brand of conservatism. Highlighting a detailed plan as well as his new book, Leviathan on the Right, Tanner offered GOPers a route to return back to the days preceding former President Bill Clinton.

ABOUT SIGNING THAT BILL...
Will DC dwellers someday have a chance to send their own members to Congress? AEI's John Fortier layed out the problems with a new bill some of our neighbors have pushed for. Among them, such a bill is unconstitutional. So what choice do determined advocates, hopefuls, and craftsmen have? Fortier suggests they retrace their steps, re-read the Constitution, and consider three steps which could lead to a more promising path.

Have an idea for next week's Tank Talk?
Send your suggestions to Sarah, at slovenheim@nationaljournal.com.

John McCain’s new website, www.johnmccain.com launched this afternoon.

At first glance, the jarring black-and-white website makes us wonder exactly what message McCain is trying to send – that the choices in this election are black-and-white? Whatever the case, we know he’s serious.

To its credit, the black-and-white format lets viewers focus on what’s in color – the Senator’s inspiring videos, which currently include a personal introduction and a tribute to Ronald Reagan. The videos occupy the homepage’s main feature, demonstrating that the McCain camp has a clear understanding of what attracts viewers.

One unique feature is the roll over flash content at the base of the homepage, where simply rolling over automatically plays a video of McCain, who explains the site’s sections. No reading necessary.

The website also includes a blog section. But rather than have their own blog (and hire campaign bloggers), McCain’s camp appears to be putting it all in the user’s hands, inviting its readers to “engage with outside blogs.”

The ability for users to submit questions via YouTube is one feature will likely be a hit. Another great idea is the “Undecided?” section because it allows the site’s content to be audience-specific.

But the site’s most interesting feature is the interactive “McCainSpace” section, a MySpace imitation that allows users to create their own webpages. If community sites like MySpace and Facebook are any indicator, the system is a proven way for people with common interests to network, get involved and stay updated on the campaign’s latest news. Sen. Barack Obama’s is up with a similar community site called my.barackobama.com

While other campaigns use pre-existing community sites like Facebook, MyGOP, or Party Builder, the McCain team has chosen to create its own version, presumably allowing the campaign to have more control and focus. It remains to be seen whether the feature can attract a similar following. [TINA SALVATO and RIKI PARIKH]

Act One: Libby's Labor's Lost. Act Two: Much Ado About GA 10. The rest? The curtain opens...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Conducted 2/9-11; surveyed 1006 adults; margin of error 
+/- 3% (release, 2/16).

If Your Party Nominated A Generally 
 Well-Qualified Candidate For WH '08
Who Was ___,  Would You Vote For That Person?    
                                      
                          Yes No                  
Catholic                  95%  4%                           
Black                     94   5   
Jewish                    92   7    
A woman                   88  11         
Hispanic                  87  12    
Mormon                    72  24  
Married for third time    67  30   
72 years old              57  42
A homosexual              55  43    
An atheist                45  53 

Would You Be Comfortable In Voting
For A WH '08er Who Was ___?

From Today's Hotline:

Of the 29 Dems on the DCCC's first '08 "Frontline" list, 4 won more than 55% of the vote in 2006: Reps. Chet Edwards (TX), Chris Murphy (CT), Brad Ellsworth (IN), and Zack Space (OH).

From today's Ad Spotlight:

Democratic consultant Marius Penczner has seen his share of presidential campaigns from the inside, and he's not through with them yet.

In 1996, he worked for the Clinton/Gore team; in 2000, he was with Al Gore again when Gore was at the top of the ticket. And in 2004, he worked with another primary candidate who ended up on the ballot: John Edwards. This cycle, he's back with the former North Carolina senator in his second bid for the presidency.

But Penczner's portfolio extends beyond presidential media strategy. He also designed ads for Harold Ford Jr. (D) during each of his House campaigns beginning with his initial run for Congress in 1996. (GMMB did most of Ford's Senate campaign spots.) New York Times editorial writer Adam Cohen deemed the "Rancher" ad Penczner did for Nebraska congressional candidate Scott Kleeb one of seven "brutally effective" spots that aired during the '06 cycle. (Subscription Required)

This week, Penczner participates in Ad Spotlight's Q&A with political media consultants. Edited excerpts follow. [ERIN MCPIKE]

LOS ANGELES - Ex-VP Al Gore repeated his I’m-not-running-in-‘08 stance here Thursday as he focused instead on a July 7th global concert tied into his Oscar-nominated global warming movie.

“I haven’t changed my answer about politics in quite a few years now,” said Gore.

When asked about a New York Observer story this week which reported that he is keeping his ‘08 options open until September, Gore shook his head but said “I have no intention of running for president again and I’m involved in a different kind of campaign. And persuading other people in this country and all over the world that we have to solve the climate crisis is a position that I feel very passionately about and I’m devoting myself to it.”

But like most Oscar nominees this month, Gore has been in campaign mode to win an Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature for his concert-spawning, slideshow-driven film, “An Inconvenient Truth.”
Gore’s Hollywood profile has remained high lately thanks partly to his presence earlier this week at The Grammy Awards; on Thursday he mentioned that there too his global concert attracted attention, with Gore saying that members of the Red Hot Chili Peppers told him, “`we’re in.’”

All Academy Award voting ends next Tuesday. “I don’t want to jinx that whole deal by talking about it,” said the former veep, who also is growing tired of his global warming critics. “I’m running outta things to say to them. Look, this has been well known for a long time.”

Like the global Live Aid concert for African famine relief in 1985, Gore’s 24-hour, July 7th concert aspires to attract about two billion people through live broadcast and online performances on all seven continents - including what he said would be, “the first live musical performance originating from Antarctica.” Gore’s cable channel Current TV also will display viewer-created global warming messages and art during the concert. [DAVID FINNIGAN]

Finnegan is a free-lance writer based in California.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Obama Campaigning In S.C.Today

AZ Political News-- State GOP Power Shift Threatens McCain

Capitol Fax -- Gone?

Georgia Political Digest-- Rep. Williams Enters 'Sunday Sales' Fray

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: 'Fair Share' Bill Debated At Statehouse

JohnCombest.com -- AP: Talent, McCaskill campaigns honored for civility

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch: A Plan, But No Price Tag

Quorum Report -- Perry Urges Lawmakers, Public To Take His Health Care Ideas Seriously

Sayfie's Review -- Tribune: GOP Warned Not To Move Up Primary

WisPolitics.com-- DC Wrap: Petri Says U.S. Soldiers Should Not Be "Policemen In A Civil War"

In a packed room full of press, onlookers, and Congressional officials, Sen. Joe Biden (DE) mapped out his five-point plan for Iraq at The Brookings Institution yesterday, which he crafted alongside Council on Foreign Relations President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb. In a nutshell, Biden suggested Iraqis need:

1) Breathing Room: Decentralizing the nation could offer Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis "breathing room in their own regions." That way, the central government could control Iraqi shared interests, such as border security and oil revenue distribution.

2) Oil Revenue: By "guaranteeing" the Sunnis, who lack oil, "a proportionate share (about 20 %) of oil revenues," perhaps former Baathists would return to work, "reintegrating those with no blood on their hands."

3) Help From Their Neighbors: Increasing economic aid and "asking oil-rich Arab Gulf states to fund it," could help provide ways to "defend minority rights" and create a jobs program "to deny the militia new recruits."

4) A Networking Group: If Iraqis met with their neighbors and set up a regional conference, creating "a Contact Group of the major powers to enforce their commitments," perhaps -- in the long haul -- violence would lessen in the region.

5) Their Own '08 Date: Just as deadlines often serve well at work, so too, might they in Iraq. If Congress asked the military "for a plan to responsibly withdraw most U.S. forces" by '08... "while refocusing the mission of a small residual force on counter-terrorism and training Iraqis," Iraqis could have "enough time" to organize and prepare their own government to take over.

Alhough Biden touted his plan, as the greatest factor setting him apart from other '08ers, could there also be a few unspoken similarities? And, as serious as he is, what sort of statements bring out his sense of humor? [SARAH LOVENHEIM]

TV concentrated heavily on the Senate Iraq debate, as well as Pres. Bush's troop increase in Afghanistan.

CNN's Blitzer: "A Senate deadlock over an Iraq resolution could get busted wide open very soon in an explosion of partisan fireworks. Democrats now promising to hold a rare Saturday vote. A new showdown over the president's plan for a troop build-up in Iraq" ("Situation Room," 2/15).

FNC's Garrett: "The thirst among Senate Democrats to vote on a non-binding anti-surge resolution can only be described as insatiable. Let's keep count, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has abandoned two previous anti-surge resolutions. ... Reid's latest fancy is the House resolution, any anti-surge, apparently, will do" ("Special Report," 2/15).

CNN's Bash, on which WH '08 Sens. will be present at the Sat. vote: "Senator Clinton's office tells us she will be in the Senate if there is a vote. So does Senator Biden's. We haven't reached others, except Senator Obama's. And, a campaign aide essentially says that he has not decided whether he is going to stay in Washington for that vote" ("Situation Room," 2/15).

MSNBC's Olbermann: "The Pentagon announcing plans to send an additional 3,200 troops to Afghanistan, bringing the American presence there to about 27,000 total, the current escalation of combat troops for Iraq nearly that large" ("Countdown," 2/15).

CNN's Dobbs: "The president's remarks today on Afghanistan covered the need for more troops. The need to push back the Taliban and al Qaeda. And of course the need to support the Afghan government. But there was a significant omission by the name of Osama" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 2/15).

LAYING DOWN THE LAW

Joe Biden was in "Situation Room" last night.

On Bush saying Dems are hypocritical in opposing the new Iraq strategy because they voted to confirm General Petraeus: "I think that's ridiculous. It's a little bit like saying that because I opposed the war in Iraq that I should be against the military. I mean this is the president of the United States' plan. It's not Petraeus' plan. It's the president of the United States' plan. I know General Petraeus. He's a fine guy and he's perfectly capable of leading our forces. The policy he's asked to lead on is a mistake."

Asked if HRC should admit her Iraq vote was a mistake: "That is purely up to Senator Clinton. I have great respect for her. I remember when we both made our statements on the floor of the United States Senate when this war was being voted on. We both squarely said the president was expected to do things he didn't do, and he did the opposite things he said he was going to do. So I don't want to second-guess Senator Clinton at all" (CNN, 2/15).

Biden also played "Hardball."

On a solution in Iraq: "It gets very complicated. So what I'm doing is ... redefine what authority the president has to use force in Iraq. The original authority he had was to get rid of weapons of mass destruction, take down Saddam Hussein, comply with U.N. resolutions. That's all done. Now we have to define for him, 'Mr. President, you're not allowed to get us in the middle this civil war. You're allowed to train Iraqi forces. You should be bringing in the international community to make it their
problem and get a political solution. And you should help them with their constitution'" (MSNBC, 2/15) [KATHERINE LEHR].

1. The Los Angeles Times is conducting a 2008 presidential preference survey of members of the Republican National Committee.

2. NM Gov. Bill Richardson plans to raise $2M tonight in Albuquerque.

3. Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) has agreed to attend the 3/24 debate in Nevada sponsored by the Service Employees International Union. He's not attending an earlier debate put on by AFSCME, a big union for public employees. For accuracy's sake, let's call these events "forums," since the candidates won't share the stage.

4. Attention Massachusetts Republicans: you can now attend tonight's Romney fest in Boston for free. We hear that some Romney supporters are blast e-mailing their GOP friends with pleas to stop by the event, which the campaign bills as a demonstration of the breadth of Romney's appeal among MA Republicans.

Feb 5, 2008: come join CA, IL, NJ, NE, TX, AL...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Dems are trying to build on inroads they've made with religious voters, but perhaps no one faces a bigger challenge among those voters than Hillary Clinton. Hotline's John Mercurio has the story in this week's PolitiScope.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has announced that the Senate will vote on the surge resolution this Saturday. But a quick look at Hotline’s table of WH candidate schedules indicates that at least six Senators were planning to be out of town that day:

Biden: Iowa
Clinton: Boston
Dodd: South Carolina
Obama: South Carolina and Richmond, VA
Brownback: Orlando, FL
McCain: Iowa

Sen. Chuck Hagel, who of course hasn’t announced his intentions yet, had no public events planned. So will any of the other six change plans? [MIKE MEMOLI]

An update from our Hotline Political Network IL affiliate, Capitol Fax:

Former IL Rep. Al Salvi lost to Sen. Dick Durbin running for Senate in 1996. Yet rumor has it that Al's wife, Kathy, "may run against Durbin in 2008."

You'll find the rest of the story here.

From today's Hotline:

Is it just us or are there fewer WH campaigns HQed in the DC metro area than ever before. A majority of the Big Six campaigns are based outside the Beltway (including Romney, Edwards, Rudy and Obama). And don't forget Huckabee, Vilsack and Brownback (among others) all in their home states, rather than in DC. Has there been another year when so few were HQed in DC? Let us know.

As expected, Barack Obama’s announcement was covered big by the media, about as big as Hillary Clinton’s announcement. The test for Obama, though, is whether he can sustain momentum in the same vein as Hillary.

As for the rest of the pack, the blogger controversy is a full-fledged debacle for EdwardsWorld. It stepped on his health care rollout and has been the dominant theme of his campaign for a week.

For the remainder of this first quarter, we'll be including a fundraising projection based on what all the campaigns are saying about themselves and each other, and our own reporting of what's going on in these various fundraising shops.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.

1. Hillary Clinton Last Ranking: 1

Clinton got into a bit of a royal rut trying not to make the same mistake John Kerry made -- seeming weak and being for something before being against it. It's cute to say "it was Bush's mistake," but the base knows that, and they want more.Here's another way of looking at it: Obama goes on "60 Minutes" and admits to using cocaine; Clinton, when asked about the war, blames someone else. Who's more real?
Fundraising projection: $50 million, +/- $10 million. Almanac Profile

2. Barack Obama. Last Ranking: 2
The He's trying to run an unconventional campaign with conventional (but talented) strategists. Something will give, and soon. By the way, Michelle Obama reminds us a lot of Hillary circa 1992 -- an accomplished woman who will be a challenge for the campaign to manage -- which means she'll probably be more of an asset than somein the media believe. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million. Almanac Profile

Continue Reading White House 2008 Rankings: The Democrats.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Clyburn Says He Won't Endorse Primary Candidate

AZ Political News-- Recall Drive Targets McCain Over Iraq

Capitol Fax -- Visitation For Officer Vazquez

Georgia Political Digest-- Senate Rejects Move To Limit Spending

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: 'Fair Share' Bill Debated At Statehouse

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Akin To Take Third Trip To Iraq

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch: A Plan, But No Price Tag

Quorum Report -- Republican Rank-And-File Support Moving Up Primary Election

Sayfie's Review -- Democrat: Governor Approves Citizens' New Plan

WisPolitics.com-- Tax Increases Under Doyle's Budget Hit Variety Of People

TV focused on the Pres. Bush presser and its implications for Iraq and Iran.

CNN's Blitzer: "At his first news conference this year, President Bush seemed resigned to a symbolic Congressional vote against his plan for a troop build-up in Iraq. But he sounded downright miffed at repeated questions about whether Iran is arming Iraqi insurgents" ("Situation Room," 2/14).

MSNBC's Carlson: "The president did not mention anywhere in the press conference democracy in Iraq or the Iraqi constitution. It does seem like everybody has kind of given up on the notion that spreading democracy in the Middle East is a good idea" ("Tucker," 2/14).

FNC's Baier: "Soon after the news conference, Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton took to the Senate floor, calling the president's comments about Iran, quote, deeply concerning and disturbing, and insisting that the president cannot be allowed to act without the authority and oversight of Congress" ("Special Report," 2/14).

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), on a non-binding resolution: "The president, on the one hand, says that this is just a resolution that doesn't really mean that much and, on the other hand, the White House is working very hard to stop Republicans from voting for it. ... The motion of disapproval of the president's escalation of the war in Iraq is going to set the stage for a whole new debate on Iraq. We'll take care of this, this week" ("Newshour," PBS, 2/14).

IT's OFFICIAL...(again)

Rudy Giuliani was on "LKL" last night.

CNN's L. King: "Are you running or not?"

Giuliani: "Yes, I'm running. Sure."

L. King: "Do you make an official announcement or is this it -- here, right now?"

Giuliani: "I guess you do one of these things where you do it four times or five times in a day so that I can, you know, get on your show and about five others. ... Yes, I'm running."

L. King: "I don't want to break your heart, but if you're president, you can't root for the Yankees. ... You have to root for everybody."

Giuliani, on being a strict constructionist: "I am pro-choice, yes. But I ... always have been against abortion, hate abortion, don't like it, wouldn't personally advise anyone to have an abortion ... but I believe a woman has a right to choose. And you can't have criminal penalties and I think that would be wrong. I would select judges who try to interpret the Constitution rather than invent it, from my views as a lawyer. And I don't want to sound presumptuous, I'm not a constitutional lawyer, but I have argued in the Supreme Court and I have argued in many of the circuit courts. I've spent more time in court than I have in politics."

Asked if he favors a constitutional amendment saying marriage is between a man and a woman: "Not if it remains the way it is now. Unless all of a sudden lots of states do what Massachusetts does and kind of come at it from the other side and decide that the Constitution says that you cannot have marriage between a man and a woman. If it stays the way it is, you don't need one."

Asked if it is going to be for him in the South: "I've been in South Carolina quite a bit -- and other parts of the South. And it seems like they're open. It seems like people are open to maybe approaching this election a little differently ... both on the Republican side and the Democratic side."

L. King: "So you think they'll vote for you?"

Giuliani: "I think they will. I think they will. And I think they will on the basis of leadership. I think they will on the basis of ultimately we need someone who we think can handle this country at a time of war and a time in which we have real tough things that we have to face that we haven't been facing for a while" (CNN, 2/14). [KATHERINE LEHR].

The Rudy Giuliani Exploratory Cmte. sent out fundraising letters on 2/5.

In a letter, Giuliani paints himself as Reagan 2.0, quoting the fmr. pres. as saying "The future belongs to the free." Giuliani: "Today, as Republicans, we need to restore that optimistic spirit to our party and to the national political debate that is shaping the future of this great nation."

Giuliani writes that he believes the GOP is the "party of freedom" and then lays out the party platform of low taxes, small gov't, entitlement reform, and school choice, and then lists his GOP record as Reagan's Associate AG and NYC Mayor.

To give you the extra confidence for your investment, manager Mike Duhaime attaches a "Memorandum" addressed to "Team Rudy" detailing recent nat'l poll numbers, all of which show, on average, Giuliani leading John McCain. "More importantly," he includes polling numbers in early primary states, which are also mostly favorable toward Giuliani.

Giuliani writes: "I'm humbled by early polls that show me leading the race nationaly and in key primary states. I am ready for the tremendous amount of hard work that lies ahead to earn our party's nomination, and I would count on the help from party leaders like you."

Oh, and the 9/11 reference: "In the dark days after September 11th, I knew that the United States would neet the crisis and rise to new heights. Because people who live in freedom have much more strength than people who live in oppression." He goes on to compare it to the "story of the Old Testament ... the Second World War ... (and) the history our generation writes when we win the War on Terror."

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Mitt Romney is ready to play with the big boys on their turf. With 23 Congressmen listed as honorary chairs of the campaign, Romney plans to infiltrate DC later this month with a 2/27 luncheon fundraiser at the Mayflower Hotel on Connecticut Ave. He's allowing those who want to attend the VIP "Leadership Reception" to max-out on donations for the GOP primary at $2,300/person. The actual lunch will cost $1K/person.

Among the names of lobbyists and lawyers serving as co-chairs: American Gas Asso. EVP Rick Shelby, ex-Delay CoS Drew Maloney, Ken Sarr wife Alice Starr, Lobbyist/Latter-Day Saints stake president William Nixon, and George H.W. Bush daughter/George W. Bush sister Doro Bush Koch.

Here's a copy of the swanky invite.

Mike DuHaime, the former RNC political director, sure has loyal colleagues.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's exploratory cmte. announced a bunch of new hires today to its political team, at the national and regional levels.

Mark Campbell, nat'l pol. dir.; "past clients" include Bush-Quayle, American Medical Association PAC, RNC, NRCC, Bush-Cheney FL Recount

Rick Wiley, dep. pol. dir.; previously served as executive director and pol. dir. of GOP of WI, exec. dir. of GOP Victory '04

Bill Stepien, nat'l field dir.; dir. of '05-'05 Nat'l 72 Hour, BC04 NH field dir

Jake Menges, sr. advisor to pol. dept.; worked for National Media, a GOP media firm in Alexandria, VA, and managed Bill Simon's CA GOV primary.

Cary Evans, nat'l field advisor; previously worked as RNC regional pol. dir., BC04 regional pol. dir., dep. manager for Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR),

Regional Political Directors

Chris Gulugian-Taylor, previously served as exec. dir. of NV Victory '06, exec. dir of NV GOP, the Nevada Republican Party as Executive Director and Political Director. Gulugian-Taylor has worked for the Republican National Committee in Washington, D.C., and in the field, serving as the Washington State 72 Hour Director for President Bush's 2004 re-election campaign.

K.C. Jones, manager for Rick O'Donnell's House Run (CO-07), VA dir. of RNC's 72 Hour, BC04 IA field dir., BC04 MN dep. exec. dir.

Matthew R. Mahoney, Giuliani's WH Pol. Affairs Liason from '02-'07, dep. dir. of advance for Giuliani between '98-'02, sr. legal adviser to Solutions America PAC.

Matt Mason, dir. GOTV in '04 and '06 for OH GOP, joined Marines after 9/11, served a tour in Iraq in '05

Tyler O'Connor, state. dir. for MO GOP 72 Hour/Victory '06, pol. dir. for Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL) '04 camp

Mike Roman, dir. of Election Day Operations at RNC in '06 and in PA in '04, before that at the PA GOP camp. cmte., Phill Ward Leader from '02 to '06

Mike Vallante, COO of CA GOP, chair of RI GOP, regional pol. dir. for RNC

David Watts, exec. dir./pol. dir. of Dallas County GOP ('98-'01), Western reg. pol. dir. for BC04.

Yes, that's the coverage Sen. Hillary Clinton wants, but..

Here's what she said on the floor of the Senate about Iran.

"In dealing with the threats posed by the Iranian regime, which has gained its expanding influence in Iraq and the region as a result of the administration's policies, President Bush must not be allowed to act without the authority and oversight of Congress. It would be a mistake of historical proportion if the administration thought that the 2002 resolution authorizing force against Iraq was a blank check for the use of force against Iran without further congressional authorization. Nor should the president think that the 2001 resolution authorizing force after the terrorist attacks of 9/11 in any way authorizes force against Iran. If the administration believes that any, any use of force against Iran is necessary, the president must come to congress to seek that authority."

State Sen. Darrell Jackson (D) is the pastor of the Bible Way Church in Columbia. which has one of the largest congregations in South Carolina. He was the youngest African American ever elected to the legislature. His endorsement is among the few in the state that can change minds and move votes.

Jackson is also a prized political consultant, and, during the past two South Carolina primary campaigns, has been the object of a bidding war between top-tier presidential candidates.

Yesterday, Jackson confirmed that he had decided to endorse Sen. Hillary Clinton, less than six days after his public relations firm, Sunrise Enterprises, agreed to a contract with Clinton's campaign worth at least $10,000 a month through the 2008 elections - a total of $210,000. (The contract has not been signed.)

A few days before that, Jackson was deep in negotiations with Steve Hildebrand, a senior strategist for Sen. Barack Obama's campaign. On the table was a contract worth in excess of $5K a month, beginning on 3/15/07. Separately, Obama was personally soliciitng Jackson's endorsement.

There's no question that the contract and the negotiations are legal. Sunrise is the oldest political consulting firm run by African Americans in the state and its services were in demand: at least five candidates, including Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Joe Biden, reached out to Jackson.

But in an interview, Jackson conceded that he should have acknowledged his firm's new business relationship with the Clinton campaign. "This Clinton campaign didn't put this on me, and neither did I. We didn't intend to announce this for a while," he said. "It wasn't me that called a press conference." Jackson's colleague, State Sen. Robert Ford, proudly told a reporter yesterday that he and Jackson had decided to endorse Clinton. Jackson, in subsequent interviews with reporters, confirmed his choice.

"It's Not About The Money"

"It's not about money," he said. "Quite honestly, I've turned done more money from some of the other candidates." Jackson said that when he told an official for another campaign about his Clinton endorsement, the official offered to "double" whatever Clinton offered him. Jackson told the official, whose name and campaign affiliation he declined to identify, that he was offended at the thought that his endorsement was bought. Jackson: "I don't even take a salary" (at Sunrise).

"Senator Jackson is one of the most respected leaders in South Carolina, and he runs one of the most successful media firms in the state," said Mo Elleithee, a Clinton spokesperson. "He and his firm were being aggressively courted by other campaigns - once we learned that he was supporting Senator Clinton, we jumped at the chance to have him be part of our South Carolina operation. We're proud to have him on our team."

Elleithee said the Clinton campaign never intended to compensate Jackson in exchange for an endorsement. Another Clinton adviser acknowledged that the optics of the endorsement were cloudy but said that the negotiations were above board.

As late as Feb. 7, Jackson had not decided which candidate to support. He was fielding formal offers from at least three other campaigns, including Obama's. In October of 2004, before Obama began to publicly consider a presidential race, the then Senate candidate spoke at Jackson's church and met privately with the minister.

On Feb. 6, according to copies of an e-mail provided to the Hotline, Obama called Jackson and again asked for his endorsement. The next day, one of Jackson's aides told Hildebrand, who oversees Obama's early primary state campaigns, that Jackson would decide whether to endorse Obama within two days. The aide wrote that Jackson had not decided about which contract offer to accept. And the aide hinted to Hildebrand that Sunrise had received another offer for a consulting contract.

In 2003, Sunrise was hired by Axelrod and Associates to advise on media buys and consult on strategy for Sen. John Edwards's campaign. David Axelrod, now an Obama adviser, was Edwards's media consultant in 2004. Sen. Jackson endorsed Edwards, who won the primary.

From today's Hotline:

As some of you noted, yesterday's Overlooked confused NC's two SEN seats. (We just wanted to see if you were paying attention.) Sen. Richard Burr (R) holds ex-Sen. Sam Ervin's (D) seat, which has not re-elected an incumbent of either party since '68. Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) holds ex-Sen. Jesse Helms' (R) seat, so there is no trend/record she'd have to break to win re-election herself in '08. It remains true that Dems have not won a NC SEN seat in any WH year since '68.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Campaign Trail: Upcoming Stops By Presidential Candidates

AZ Political News-- Cox To Air Events From AZ Capitol

Capitol Fax -- The State Makes Its Case, But Holes Pop Up Everywhere

Georgia Political Digest-- Rep. Charlie Norwood, Intrepid Georgia Republican, Dies At 65

Iowa Politics-- IowaPolitics.com: Obama Touts Grassroots Politics To College Crowd in Ames.

JohnCombest.com -- P-D: Too Much Mitt Already? Some In Utah Think So

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch: A Plan, But No Price Tag

Quorum Report -- Texas Lawmakers Likely To Choose Middle Course On Stem-Cell Research

Sayfie's Review -- Democrat: Governor Approves Citizens' New Plan

WisPolitics.com-- Panel Gives new recommendations for No Child Left Behind

If reporters want to show up in Arizona on the 12th, they'll be treated to a nice spring day.

But not a candidate announcement.

(Fox News reported last night that McCain was considering a 3/12 launch).

TULARE , CA – Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani capped a trio of public appearances in California Tuesday at the world’s largest agricultural convention where he emphasized his love for California crops and campaign cash.

“Campaign fundraising is very important in California, it’s very important in Texas,” Giuliani said, standing in front of a huge combine and an even more massive, half-million dollar cotton picking machine. “It’s very important in New York , it’s very important in Illinois , it’s very important in Florida , it’s very important in Iowa , New Hampshire . You can’t control the fact that these elections are enormously expensive.”

Giuliani was in Fresno Monday night, 50 miles north of here. The Fresno Bee reported that about 100 people attended his $2,300-per-head fundraiser gathering at the home of Central Valley land developer Jerry DeYoung. After Tuesday morning’s World Ag Expo stop, Giuliani headed to San Diego for another event with campaign communications director Katie Levinson and California campaign chair and ’02 GOP CA nominee Bill Simon. Also trailing the ex-mayor was a field office staffer for U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), who endorsed Giuliani on Feb. 9 and sits on the NRCC’s executive committee. (“I trust him to do what’s right, and not just what is politically expedient,” said the Nunes press release.)

Like his speeches before Republican conventioneers in Sacramento last Saturday and Silicon Valley executives on Monday, Giuliani’s Central Valley visit found him facing a crowd of curious farmers and farm equipment sales folk, with one of them shouting, “Are you running?”

“Yes, I am running! And a lot sooner than I ever thought,” he said at an outdoor press conference. “When I think about my background and my experience and being from Brooklyn and then I, possibly, be a candidate for president or possibly president of the United States , that’s a real big thing to get your mind around.”

The World Ag Expo’s opening day found Giuliani appearing more relaxed here than at his two other California speeches, wearing no tie just like most the 450 salt-of-the-earth types (plus one Brooklyn transplant dressed like Tony Soprano) sitting before him in the expo hall.

Giuliani spoke to them almost as if they were a jury and the ex-federal prosecutor’s farming-is-important speech was an opening argument for his all-but-formally-announced candidacy. His focused talk was just under 14 minutes, his we’re-all-Americans themes displayed but not overplayed with some Sept. 11th references to help out, the most memorable being about Midwestern firefighters driving their rigs to Manhattan on Sept. 12. Serious applause came when Giuliani said farmers deserve, “a level-playing field.”

Just as his Silicon Valley speech linked expanding Internet technology to defetaing terrorists, Giuliani told the farmers that secure domestic food production must be maintained so that unlike energy, food will be not held hostage like energy needs now require foreign entanglements with terrorist-friendly importers. “What you learn about agriculture when you’re the mayor of America ’s largest city is how much we depend on each other,” he said, “and that we’re all in this together.”

As Giuliani toured the expo’s sprawling grounds in a golf cart, the setting could have been mistaken for Iowa , as he posed for a picture with a mom and her baby, patted an old timer’s back, and showed genuine interest while examining a $5,650 dust control unit. When a visiting Wisconsin farmer told him what Badger State town she hailed from, Giuliani replied, “ Dodge County is just about all Republican.”

After finishing his opening day speech, Giuliani went back to his chair and sat on stage with two rows of California and farm dignitaries. Still left to do before his golf cart tour was a short tribute to deceased expo volunteers; Giuliani kept his head down as a tartan-clad bagpiper played one verse of, “Amazing Grace,” the tune bagpipers often played at the 9/11 funerals Giuliani attended for New York’s 60 killed police officers and 343 lost firefighters. [DAVID FINNIGAN]

Finnigan is a free-lance writer based in California.

TV was still a lot of talk about Anna Nicole Smith with some weather and Iraq thrown in. Mitt Romney's announcement got decent coverage and he did an interview on the "Today" show this a.m.

CNN's Crowley: "Romney's courtship of the right is, well, complicated. He has been pro-choice and friendly to gay rights and embryonic stem cell research. And then he wasn't" ("Situation Room," 2/13).

CNBC's Harwood, on why Romney announced in MI: "It's certainly better than being in Massachusetts, which doesn't quite fit with the GOP theme, or in Utah, where he has also been part of his life, because that might raise questions about the whole Mormon thing, which he's not eager to address, at least on his first day formally in the race" ("Hardball," 2/13).

FNC's Gibson interviewed Mitt Romney's brother Scott:

Scott, on the Mormon issue: "I think the more they learn about Mitt, the less they become concerned. Our faith has taught us our values, it's taught us to believe in one man-one wife, it has taught us to believe in the Constitution, it has taught us to believe in a separation of church and state. It's taught us our family values" ("Big Story," 2/13).

DOTTING THE I's

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) was in the "Situation Room" where most of the talk focused on Iraq and Iran:

Dodd: "I would, one, argue for or author legislation that would reduce funding to allow for the redeployment of forces to put some pressure on the administration to change its policies, and do it in a way that would allow adequate time for these troops to be repositioned within Iraq and take them out of Iraq, to redirect funding to support efforts in Afghanistan, the veterans' benefits, to rebuild our military. But clearly, if the president doesn't act, then Congress has got to act responsibly. And if that's the only thing we can do, by reducing the funding to create a change there, then I'm for it."

On his habeas corpus legislation: "We made a major mistake last fall on the 60th anniversary of the Nuremberg verdicts, that we went off and basically eliminated habeas corpus in dealing with these detainees. We also decided we're no longer going to live by the Geneva Convention on major issues here. And again, to allow evidence accumulated through torture and coercion to be used in these cases. I think that was a major step back. At Nuremberg, we said we're different, we believe in the rule of law. And when I watch my government, my Congress walk away from these principles, I get very worried about it. So I've offered legislation today with Bob Menendez and Pat Leahy and Russ Feingold that says we're going to restore habeas corpus, we're going to live up to the Geneva Conventions, and we're not going to allow evidence that we acquired through torture. That's to protect our troops" (CNN, 2/13).

Dodd also played "Hardball":

On voting for the original Iraq resolution: "I made a mistake. I know you are not supposed to say that in politics. But, frankly, I wish I could have the vote back. You can't have it back" (MSNBC, 2/13).

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

FNC's Cameron: "Fox News has learned that John McCain is now making plans for his announcement, targeting March 12th to join the race officially" ("Special Report," 2/13). [EMILY GOODIN]

Massachusetts Republicans may spoil Mitt Romney’s party this week. Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani is set to score a coup with endorsements from 2 and perhaps a third of the 5 Bay State Republican state senators. Credit for the Giuliani coup goes to former governor Paul Cellucci, who’s been working to snag members of the tiny Republican caucus.

Sources said that Senate minority leader Richard Tiseito endorse Giuliani. Tisei, a Wakefield Republican, is in his first term as leader. Insiders think the only way to increase their numbers (or avoid obliteration) in 2008 is with a moderate Republican. There are 24 Republicans among the 200 Massachusetts House and Senate members.

Romney returns to Massachusetts on Thursday for Boston fund-rasier to cap a tour of early primary states that began today. The Senate GOP trio may make their announcement before that. The nineteen Republican members of the House signed a letter of support for Romney, but that too is starting to crack. State Representative Paul Loscocco jumped to McCain. Other defections among the House members are expected.

Accustomed to being ignored during Romney’s four years as governor, Republican legislators are taking considerable delight in the attention lavished on them by the three top-tier presidential contenders. [KEVIN F. RENNIE]

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's media team is exploring the cost of buying early television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, a Romney aide confirmed today.

The aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity, would not say when Romney's campaign intended to run ads, only that the campaign had inquired about the available time and rough cost of ads in both states.

A month ago, a Romney political adviser told the Hotline that the campaign had no reason to run television ads this early. So the early activity may be a sign that Romney's advisers want to shore up his conservative credentials in the wake of articles questioning his evolution on social issues and conservative activists who have given voice to their doubts. Already, Sen. Sam Brownback and Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee have directly questioned Romney's conversion on abortion.

Romney formally launched his candidacy this morning.

Rep. Duncan Hunter’s PAC has already aired ads in Iowa, and several interest groups, including the liberal MoveOn.org, have run ads in both early primary states attacking Sen. John McCain. In 2003, then candidate Howard Dean became the first Democrat to run ads -- but that was in June. [MARC AMBINDER]

So -- has Hillary Clinton been consistent about the Iraq war?

You be the judge.

October, 2002: HRC votes for the resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq. In her floor speech and subsequent speeches justifying her vote, HRC often evoked 9/11 by reminding people that she is a senator from NY who "has seen all too closely the consequences of [the] terrible attacks on our national and balancing the risks of action versus inaction. I think New Yorkers who have gone through the fires of hell may be more in turn to the risk of not acting. I know that I am."

Clinton protects herself for future attacks against her position. [RIKI PARIKH and MARC AMBINDER]

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is posting the most commanding lead ever for a WH '08 hopeful in the current GOP Bloggers straw poll. Without any data to back it up, the Blogometer speculates that Giuliani's lead is due to two factors: 1) His official paper filing and increased hiring of campaign staff have convinced many he's serious about running; 2) the previous GOP Blogger straw poll front-runner, MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), has suffered a death of a thousand flip-flop cuts (on gay rights, abortion, CFR, etc.). With The Smoking Gun posting past oppo on Giuliani, we'll see if his stay at the top can last longer than Romney's.

GOP FIELD: Romney In Free-Fall

GOP Bloggers is conducting their Feb. WH '08 straw poll, and with 7,627 votes in the first-choice favorites are:

Rudy Giuliani  35%

Newt Gingrich  26%

Mitt Romney    15%

Tom Tancredo   6%

Duncan Hunter  5%

The Feb. results contrast sharply with the Jan. results which had Romney ahead with 28% of first choice votes. Gingrich barely moved at all from his 24% showing, but Giuliani rocketed up from his 21%.

Pajamas Media also released their latest straw poll results with a markedly result

Ron Paul       46% 	 

Rudy Giuliani  22% 	 

Newt Gingrich  10% 	 

Mitt Romney    10% 	 

Fred Thompson   3%

WH candidates: ripped from the headlines. Courtroom scene to follow.



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Following up on a press release from last night, Sam Brownback's campaign has released the e-mail from a Gov. Mitt Romney aide which they say mislead voters about the Senator's position on abortion. According to the Brownback campaign, the following was an e-mail sent from Romney Michigan Field Director Stefani Zimmerman to Pro-Life Activists:

From: Stefani Zimmerman To: [REDACTED] Cc: [REDACTED] Sent: Thursday, February 08, 2007 1:01 PM Subject: RE: [RNCLife] Republican National Coalition for Life FaxNotes - February 2, 1007

Hi [REDACTED] and [REDACTED],

I have attached a couple of articles that should clarify Mitt's view on abortion.

Just like Sam Brownback, Mitt was once pro-choice but changed his views upon being elected to office. Sam Brownback used to identify himself with Nancy Kassebaum and rebuffed being pro-life when he first ran for office. Kassebaum was a prominent GOP senator that was known for being pro-choice. When Brownback was elected to office, that is when he also had a conversion and voted with the pro-life movement. The same is true for Mitt Romney. In fact, Mitt Romney has harshly criticized in Mass. for speaking out AGAINST embryonic stem cell research. As Governor, Mitt vetoed the morning after pill, the embryonic stem cell research bill, and issued regulations that ban the creation of embryos for research. Mitt has also received endorsements from Gary Marx, James Bopp- the national RTL counsel, and Mass. Citizens for Life.

I can assure you that if I thought Mitt was not pro-life or had pro-choice leanings, that I would not work for him. But I strongly believe that he has had a change of heart and will do the right thing to protect the unborn if elected to office. As more questions like this come up, please feel free to contact me at any time. I would love to have the opportunity to clarify and let you know what Mitt really believes.

We're waiting from confirmation from Romney's campaign, which is just starting their WH '08 announcement tour and en route from MI to IA.

The Wall Street Journal's editorial board, compiling a history of Sen. Hillary Clinton's remarks, accuses her of yoking her remarks to prevailing public opinion.

But a closer examination of what she has said and the contexts within which she has spoken shows something a little more equiovcal. It's hard to find a clear flip-flop, much less an unexpected change of position, much less any statement or comment that conflicts with the thrust of her first major speech on the subject.

We'll post our analysis later this afternoon, but the worst one could say is that when the war seemed to be progressing well, Clinton called attention to her vote (see the Saddam Hussein capture below). When WMDs weren't found and it appeared that the US footprint was too light for the task, she evinced skepticism and accused Pres. Bush of misleading the Congress. Calculation? Yes. A flip-flop? Not really.

There's a slightly less menacing storm in Michigan, too. Three Michigan lawmakers who once gave Mitt Romney their endorsement are now backing Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). (Contrary to published reports, McCain is not actually in Michigan -- he's in DC.)

Just for kicks, we annotated Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential announcement speech

Find out what he really meant.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Campbell Family Endorses Huckabee

AZ Political News-- Tough Stands A Risk For McCain

Capitol Fax -- Dancing Obama

Georgia Political Digest-- House OKs Guns In Cars

Iowa Politics-- Obama Touts Grassroots Politics To College Crowd in Ames.

JohnCombest.com -- CDT: Romney Defends Experience

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch: A Plan, But No Price Tag

Quorum Report -- Presidential Hopefuls Strike It Rich In Texas

Sayfie's Review -- Democrat: GOP Confident It Can Regain Party's Power

WisPolitics.com-- Protection Wanted For State's Malpractice Fund

SANTA CLARA, CA -- Rudy Giuliani made a few diplomatic jabs Monday at his '08 opponents including Mitt Romney on the eve of the ex-MA GOV's formal campaign start Tuesday in Dearborn, MI.

Giuliani, to reporters at a windy press conference after his speech before about 500 Silicon Valley business executives: "Governor Romney is a good friend, he was somebody I campaigned for very, very hard when he ran for governor of Massachusetts, helped him get elected. I don't think I'll be campaigning for him for the Republican nomination this time. I have another candidate that I think is probably going to be better, but I really wish him well. He's a very, very good man."

Giuliani's 29-minute Hyatt Regency speech before a venture capitalist crowd saw him make 13 references to Winston Churchill (plus another seven to Ronald Reagan) and that was fitting since the event was sponsored by Silicon Valley's bi-partisan Churchill Club speakers forum. The luncheon's typically Northern California mix of Dems, indies and GOPers found Giuliani very comfortable working a broad audience similar to the politically mixed crowds he knew as New York's mayor: he began his speech with some laughs via his throaty, Marlon Brando/Godfather voice expressing his pleasure at this, "meeting of the families from the different parts of California."

When asked by the luncheon host during the Q-and-A about the qualities of his potential subway series rival Hillary Clinton, Guiliani politely demurred: "I would not be the best source of describing Senator Clinton...the most objective source...I'm not sure she'll be the candidate."

Giuliani also pledged his fidelity to an '08 run: "I'm 100% committed. That official part, I still have to do a formal announcement but we'll figure out how to do that."

The onetime Reagan-era, Mafia-busting federal prosecutor said that as a 9/11-tested government executive, he is, "probably much more experienced with terrorism than anyone else running, except maybe John McCain."

But lacking street credibility for him is Al Gore's global warming documentary, "An Inconvient Truth," which Giuliani found thick with complaints but lacking real-world solutions or questioning of special interest groups blocking alternative energy developments like wind and solar power. Giuliani: "I did not detect in the movie the same zeal to take on those special interests in explaining the problem."

His California audience laughed heartily after Giuliani said terrorism festers in slow-to-develop Middle Eastern countries where women still can be stoned, prompting him to pause and clarify to the medical marijuana-tolerant crowd, "And by stoned I mean hit with rocks."

In this Silicon Valley venue Giuliani expressed his views on immigration reform with seemingly a notch less tension than his speech last Saturday in Sacramento at the CA GOP convo, where some party conservatives expect much harder calls for border closings.

"How do we keep this country open?" he said Monday, before reminding the audience of the expected U.S. population drop in 10 years. Giuliani also critiqued Western Europe's "socialized medicine" and called for solutions that preserve American health care's "genius" based on health care industry competition.

Giuliani also repeated his absolute support for California moving its primary to next Feb. 5;
"California is a state that you could regard as a microcosm of the U.S. We're all (presidential candidates) gonna have to contest in a place that's kind of similar to what we're eventually gonna have to do, which is to run in the entire country." [DAVID FINNIGAN]

David Finnigan is a freelance journalist based in California

TV continues to not only talk about Iraq, but Iran is getting more attention. There was also a good chunk of North Korea talk. Meanwhile, there were some good interviews on last night:

Pres. Bush sat down with C-SPAN's Scully.

Asked if he'll watch the House debate on Iraq: "In terms of watching the debate, I've got a lot to do -- I'm not exactly sure what hours they'll be debating, but I've got a pretty full day, I mean, like, I started this morning at 6:45 a.m. and I've had meetings up until right now. So I haven't been watching anything."

On media coverage of Iraq: "I'm wise enough not to bash the media. I would hope, however, that they would take a good look at, for example, the rest of the country outside of Baghdad and Anbar province -- at least the reports I get are people are beginning to live a normal life. If you're a correspondent in a war zone, it's a little difficult to travel around the country on a free basis. But, look, I'm not going to complain about the media."

On WH '08: "From my perspective, it is good not to have a vice president running for president. Can you imagine a vice president out there running and all of a sudden saying, well, I wouldn't have done it exactly that way, the war; when things got difficult like they are in Iraq, I told the president that he should have done it this way, he chose another way. In other words, there would be the tendency for a candidate who was associated with the president to feel like they needed to distance themselves during the tough moments, like for right now. And that would create instability inside the administration. So I don't have to deal with that. And it's going to be -- it really puts a premium on me staying completely out of the race until the nominee is chosen, and then help unify the party and do whatever the nominee wants me to do to help him get elected."

On campaign finance: "I thought the FEC ought to abolish 527s, for starters. I believe in full disclosure of any money into the political system. And we don't have it that way today yet. I just believe if somebody gives money, we need to know who they are and why they're giving it. That's not the way it is."

On his dad: "I am actually more concerned about him than I have ever been in my life, because he's paying too much attention to the news. And I understand how difficult it is for a person who loves somebody to see them out in the political process and to kind of endure the criticism. My answer to him is, look, don't pay attention to it. I'm doing fine" (2/12).

THE GUEST THAT CAN TALK ABOUT ANY TOPIC

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), on how his campaign is going: "I have been very encouraged so far. I have been a candidate about three weeks. We have got thousands of volunteers, our fund-raising is going well. I visited nearly all of the early primary states. I'm going to go to Iowa next month, New Hampshire this weekend. We had a very good session at the Democratic National Committee, the cattle call. I think most everyone agreed that I gave the best speech" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/12).

Richardson was also on "AC 360" to talk about North Korea. [EMILY GOODIN]

http://pandagon.net/

Bill Donohue has his scalp.

A press release:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NEWS RELEASE

February 12, 2007
Contact: XXX
Mitt Romney’s Campaign Misleads Voters about Senator Brownback’s Position on Abortion

"Mitt Romney’s flip flops are enough to make John Kerry blush."

Alexandria, VA – Documentation surfaced over the weekend that the Romney for President Exploratory Committee is misleading voters.

In an e-mail circulated to right-to-life leaders on February 8, 2007, a key Romney staffer wrote: "Just like Sam Brownback, Mitt was once pro-choice but changed his views upon being elected to office… When Brownback was elected to office, that is when he also had a conversion and voted with the pro-life movement."

Brownback for President National Campaign Committee Member Dr. Jack Willke, who was President of National Right to Life for ten years, responded: "Senator Brownback has always been pro-life, and has never made a statement or cast any vote to the contrary."

This false allegation by the Romney campaign comes in light of recent evidence that Romney has switched positions on abortion at least three times. Below are direct quotes from Mitt Romney on the issue of abortion:

CHRONOLOGY OF MITT ROMNEY’S ABORTION POSITIONS (IN HIS OWN WORDS):

1994: Mitt Romney was pro-choice

"I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country. I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a US Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years we should sustain and support it." (Joan Vennochi, "Romney’s Revolving World," The Boston Globe, 3/2/06)

2001: Mitt Romney was not pro-choice

"I do not wish to be labeled pro-choice." (Mitt Romney, Letter to the Editor, The Salt Lake Tribune, 7/12/01)

2002: Mitt Romney was again pro-choice

"I respect and will protect a woman’s right to choose. This choice is a deeply personal one … Women should be free to choose based on their own beliefs, not mine and not the government's." (Stephanie Ebbert, "Clarity Sought On Romney’s Abortion Stance," The Boston Globe, 7/3/05)

2007: Mitt Romney acknowledges he was "effectively pro-choice," but says he "was always for life."

January 2007: "Over the last multiple years, as you know, I have been effectively pro-choice." (Bruce Smith, "Romney Campaigns in SC with Sen. DeMint," The Associated Press, 1/29/07)

February 2007: "I am firmly pro-life… I was always for life." (Jim Davenport, "Romney Affirms Opposition to Abortion," The Associated Press, 2/9/2007

"Mitt Romney’s flip flops are enough to make John Kerry blush," Brownback for President Campaign Manager Rob Wasinger said. "It is absurd of Mitt Romney to compare himself to Senator Brownback on the right to life issue."

Which started the Romney Revolution.



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

EDS: please disregard previous versions of this post. The AFL-CIO's spokesman did not suggest that the labor federation would announce its endorsement post March -- only its endorsement process. It is also not clear that the AFL-CIO will endorse any candidate before the caucuses and primaries begin.

An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.

Organization: The AFL_CIO

According to AFL-CIO spokesperson Steve Smith, they are "working out details right now" for their endorsement process for WH '08 and are likely to announce particulars of their plan in early March, following their first Executive Council Meeting since the Nov. '06 elections in Las Vegas, NV, March 6th - 8th.

Each of the 54 national and international labor unions within the AFL-CIO has their own respective endorsement processes and must be considered in forming the general AFL-CIO endorsement. [AMY DUDLEY]

Elif Wisecup is the 9th congressional district chair for "McCain for Michigan."

Her husband is Trent Wisecup, the chief of staff for Rep. Joe Knollenberg (a Romney endorsee) and the former political director for Romney's political action committee.

We hear that Sen. Barack Obama's campaign has signed veteran Democratic fundraiser Adrienne Donato to head the Illinois Senator's Texas fundraising operation. There's a lot of Dem money in those parts, be it nestled in the suburbs of Dallas or in the tonier precincts of Houston. [MARC AMBINDER]

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

They traveled to opposite coasts, courting reluctant base voters with pleas to accept their nuanced positionings. But Giuliani and Clinton met with varied degrees of success.

-- As Bob Reich noted 2/11 on "This Week," the Iraq war has become for the Left what abortion has long been for the Right. Perhaps no two candidates know that better than Giuliani and Clinton, whose WH'08 aspirations depend hugely on whether they can win doubters on each issue.

-- In CA, Giuliani was embraced 2/10 by conservative GOPers, the same ones who now openly rebuke his "soulmate," Gov. Schwarzenegger. Part of Rudy's appeal, ironically, is GOPers' belief that he's the anti-Hillary, the only one who can beat her. But on abortion, they're willing to accept in him (Mr. "strict constructionist") something he and Clinton share: Their need for nuance.

-- Meanwhile in NH, Clinton gave a complex response on Iraq to a man who asked for simplicity. Her problem: Her position is complex.

-- Are pro-life GOPers willing to accept nuance in '08, while antiwar Dems reject it? If so, advantage Giuliani.

From today's Hotline:

Barack Obama's 2/10 prepared remarks used the word "generation" 13 times. Mentions of "Democrats" and "Democratic Party": zero.

Iowans, lend Mitt Romney your ears. On the even of the ex-MA Gov.'s announcement tour, the campaign has volunteer phone banks set up to tell Iowa Republicans about Romney's schedule -- and to see whether they'd yet made any commitments to a candidate. Early phone banking isn't unusual, but making a so-called "ID" call -- where the caucus-goer is asked to identify which candidate they're supporting at the moment -- is.

A Romney adviser said the callers also asked Iowans some "general questions" about issues. By combining the two types of calls, Romney's campaign avoids inundating these Republicans will too many phone calls, a tactic that might reap them some goodwill.

Romney's not the only Republican making phone calls. Ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson's campaign called to inform Republicans about Thompson's event schedule.

And paper stock from both Romney and Thompson landed in mailboxes this past week. Romney's campaign sent an informational postcard to thousands of Republicans. Thompson sent a colorful two-sided invitation to his event. (If you're a Des Moines Republican, you received an invite to his Des Moines event). For Thompson, the prospecting paid off: he drew crowds in excess of 80 -- which, for him, is a good number -- at least twice this weekend.

"The biggest difference between Mitt Romney and the other candidates," she said, is that Mitt has "only had one wife."

The Politico's Jonathan Martin has the scoop behind Ann Romney's creative description of her husband's family values.

Does that mean that, to Romney's campaign, the marriages of Sen. John McCain (2) and ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani (3) are fair game?

And here's another weird observation: Not a single first-or-second tier Democratic candidate has been divorced.

Who: Ex-SC first lady Iris Campbell, and son Mike Campbell

For: Ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)

Who else courted them: Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain

Significance level: (1 to 10) 6

Background: Iris Rhodes Campbell is the wife of the late Carroll Campbell II, beloved SC governor from '87 to '94,, and before that, a critical player in the movement to make SC a must-win primary for GOP presidential candidates. Seen as a bit of a kingmaker for GOP presidential candidates. Did we mention: beloved by many rank-and-file Republicans?

Campbell was SE regional chair for George H.W. Bush's campaign in '88 and endorsed George W. Bush in '00. Son Mike Campbell lost a run-off primary bid for SC Lt. Gov. in '06.

Note that Carroll Campbell III, the couple's other son, endorsed Sen. John McCain. Also, be aware that Warren Tompkins, who is Romney's chief consultant in the state, was never a favorite of the Campbell family.

Huckabee's release notes this bit of history: "In 1980, the first South Carolina primary was held. That year the SC party established led by Sen. Strom Thurmond and former Gov. Jim Edwards supported early frontrunner, John Connelly. However, Carroll and Iris Campbell decided to support the underdog, Ronald Reagan."

The full release is after the jump.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliaites

A Daily Shot Of South Carolina Politics-- Bandy: Giuliani Makes Pitch In S.C.

AZ Political News-- State GOP Upheaval Worries Democrats--

Capitol Fax -- Obama Announcement Pics