Rudy Ramps Up, Part VI

What to make of an unsure Rudy Giuliani who hesitates to check the "Republican" box, therefore preserving the option of running as an independent?

First, that was two months ago, when Rudy and his tight circle of advisers were trying to game out the Republican primary. Given his potential vulnerabilities, it would have been malpractice for Rudy's team to reduce the number of options available to him. Politically, it'll be a question he may be called to account for in an early debate: "Why were you uncertain about running as a Republican?"

Today, no one in Giuliani's world expects him to run as anything other than a Republican.

Beginning next week, the campaign will have 60 staffers. More than a dozen major fundraising events are planned for February. Giuliani's team is close to hiring its media consultant. Its Republican media consultant. This week, they hired a well-regarded polling firm, the Tarrance Group.

And today, the campaign strategy director, Brent Seaborn, distributed a memo about Giuliani's strength with Republican voters. The full memo is after the jump, but here is the lede:

The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes - including "better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans", "would manage government more effectively" and what I believe to be the single most important factor - "is the stronger leader."

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

Note the innoculation in the final sentence. [MARC AMBINDER]

To:
Team Rudy

From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director

Date:
February 2, 2007

Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination

Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters - particularly Republican primary voters - feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.

Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country - according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.

According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:

70% of independents are favorable,
70% of 35-44 year olds,
74% of married women,
73% of households married with children,
52% of minority voters
The Mayor also enjoys strong approval among white evangelical Christians (76%) and self-described conservative Republicans (82%).

In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes - including "better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans", "would manage government more effectively" and what I believe to be the single most important factor - "is the stronger leader."

In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.

The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor's exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead - in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.

Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:

State
Mayor Giuliani
Closest Competitor
Source

California
33%
19% (Gingrich)
ARG - Jan. 11-17

Florida
30%
16% (Gingrich)
ARG - Jan. 4-9

Illinois
33%
24% (McCain)
ARG - Jan. 11-14

Michigan
34%
24% (McCain)
ARG - Jan. 4-7

Nevada
31%
25% (McCain)
ARG - Dec. 19-23, '06

New Jersey
39%
21% (McCain)
Quinnipiac - Jan. 16-22

North Carolina
34%
26% (McCain)
ARG - Jan. 11-15

Ohio
30%
22% (McCain)
Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28

Pennsylvania
35%
25% (McCain)
ARG Jan. 4-8

Texas
28%
26% (McCain)
Baselice Jan. 17-21

Conclusion
Recent polling continues to suggest Mayor Giuliani is very well positioned within the party - particularly when compared to other potential Republican candidates - to win the nomination.

Mayor Giuliani's favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City's economy in the 1990's.

Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor's story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.