i work in the press club building. they've just replaced the calendar of upcoming events listing in the elevator with one saying gonzales 's speech has been cancelled. for what it's worth...
Turns out that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani had a different reason for opposing George Pataki's tax cuts in '94...
Mayor GUILIANI: He has plans to reduce taxes that are so ambitious and so inconsistent with the performance of the economy of this state that he would, in essence, in order to accomplish that, raise property taxes in the suburbs, around New York, and in New York City. Because-
SHAW: And in your mind that's a no-no?
Mayor GUILIANI: It would be a disaster. It would be an absolute disaster. It would be the kind of tax shift that substitutes for sound management. I've reduced the budget of New York City dramatically. I've actually reduced taxes already in New York City. But I didn't do one of those pledges and promises and one of those fancy campaign things that locks you into unwise economic policy.
Along with African-American voters in the polls, Sen. Barack Obama is picking up support among black bundlers in important New York money circles. The Clinton and Obama presidential campaigns released partial lists of their African-American bundlers yesterday. While both campaigns flashed some big names, Mr. Obama's list is decidedly longer and richer in Wall Street types.
Business leaders topping Mr. Obama's list include Earl Graves, publisher of Black Enterprise magazine; Ann Fudge, who recently stepped down as chief executive of Young & Rubicam Brands; investment banker Ray McGuire with Citigroup; asset manager Tracy Maitland; John Rhea, a managing director at Lehman Bros.; Brian Mathis of the Provident Group; and Ron Blaylock of GenNx360 Capital Partners.
Record company executives L.A. Reid and Andre Harrell are supporting Mr. Obama, along with entertainment lawyer Jeh Johnson and hip-hop voter registration organizer Alexis McGill. Robert Smith, who is active in DL21C, and cultural community leader Gordon Davis give the Obama campaign access to those worlds.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has corralled experienced fund-raisers Clarence and Jackie Avant, Binta Niambi Brown and Shahara Ahmad-Llewellyn. Along with Mr. Avant, iconic black entertainment elites Quincy Jones, Bob Johnson and Berry Gordy Jr. are raising money for Mrs. Clinton.
From the political world are Carl McCall, one-time candidate for governor of New York, and Tyson Pratcher, a former deputy state director for Mrs. Clinton who ran unsuccessfully to replace Harold Ford in Congress. Pam Pickens, president of Black Diamonds Entertainment, organizes networking and social events for young black professionals that have drawn 10,000 people.
"There are no lightweights on either list," says Suri Kasirer, owner of a leading lobbying and fund-raising firm in New York City. How much each group can raise will become clearer as campaign finance reports are filed next month.
The Obama campaign released this list of New Yorkers, noting that it is not all-inclusive: Brian Mathis, Jeh Johnson, L.A. Reid, Frank Cooper, Andre Harrell, Derek Johnson, Ray McGuire, Tracy Maitland, Judy Byrd Blaylock, Ron Blaylock, Earl Graves, Ann Fudge, Robert Smith, Vivienne LaBorde, Vaughn Willaims, Gayle Atkins, Charles Atkins, Gordon Davis, John Rhea, Wendy Credle, Alexis McGill, Rhonda Medina, Maxim Thorne, Jason Wright, Marc Mitchell.
The Clinton campaign sent this list: Clarence and Jackie Avant, Dana Wade Smith, Shahara Ahmad-Llewellyn, Binta Niambi Brown, Pamela Hayes, Tyson Pratcher, Carl McCall, Bob Johnson, Quincy Jones, Berry Gordy Jr. and Pam Pickens. [ANNE MICHAUD]
Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain's Insider political newsletter based in New York City.
In an internal memo sent this morning to ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney’s top fundraisers, campaign chief counsel Ben Ginsberg delivers a stern warning: look extra carefully at those breathless reports about what Romney’s opponents might have raised.
Why? Because some campaigns, trying to work the refs, will release a single number to the media early next week. But most major campaigns – all of the top six except for Romney – are simultaneously raising money for the primary contests and for the general elections. Low hanging fruits are being squeezed twice. But that general election money shouldn’t matter at all right now – it has no bearing on the primary and if it’s reported as part of the overall total, it’s downright misleading.
As Ginsberg writes, "This money will artificially inflate totals, but it is meaningless in gauging current strength since not one penny of a campaign's general election funds can be used in the primary."
The Hotline obtained the memo from a Romney source, and the campaign verified its accuracy. An e-mail to Ginsberg has not been answered.
Ginsberg's point is a good one: the campaigns on 4/15 will report two separate numbers, one for the primary and one for the general. We'd advise our readers to ignore the general election money and focus solely on the amount raised for the primary. Do not let campaigns fool you into thinking they raised more than they did!
The full Ginsberg memo is after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
Straight to the point: here are our final predictions, based on reporting with key campaign figures and donors. These figures represent totals -- money raised for both the primary AND the general election accounts.
Yes -- this means that most candidates will be well under the expectations set for them by the media (us included).
Sen. Hillary Clinton will raise between $23M and $30M.
Sen. John McCain will raise between $18M and $22M.
Sen. Barack Obama will raise between $18M and $24M.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney will raise between $19M and $21M. ** Romney is not raising general election money yet.
Ex-Sen. John Edwards will raise between $13M and $17M.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani will raise between $12M and $15M.
These figures do not include transfers from other accounts or from the final quarter of '06.
Yes, we're saying that Sen. Obama could outraise HRC.
Burn rates are more difficult to forecast. If Sen. Hillary Clinton winds up with about $16M in the bank, that would track our expectations. Sen. Obama would impress us if he kept about $10-12M. Sen. McCain would need to keep around $15M. Gov. Mitt Romney should have more than $10M in the bank. Edwards and Giuliani will have less.
Forget aggregate raising and spending: of most importance to political journalists and citizens everwhere are the line item disbursements. Only by picking through the FEC data can you get a feel for how these campaigns are actually spending their money. Some questions that we'll try to answer in mid-April include:
1. How much did Romney spend for his early TV ads? How much did Alex Castellanos keep? How much did Romney pay to staff field operatives in Florida?
2. Who has the biggest Iowa / NH / SC staffs?
3. Has any campaign deferred payment to "consultants" in order to keep their overall staff levels in check? Has any campaign "asked" consultants not to take a salary until the second quarter in order to deflate their overall burn rate?
4. Of what Sen. Clinton and the others raise, how much was shunted into a general election account lockbox and is therefore untouchable in the primary?
5. Who's paid the most for lawyers and legal compliance?
6. Who's paid the most per campaign? If it's not the campaign manager, there's a backstory...
7. How much did the two refurbished Straight Talk Express busses cost the McCain campaign?
8. Who paid the most for their websites and internet consulting teams?
9. Who has polled?
10. How many "endorsers" are on retainer?
The only really interesting question we'll answer from the contribution ledger is to discover which Dem donors are doubling or tripling down. [MARC AMBINDER]
The political talk on cable last night focused on ex-DoJ CoS Kyle Sampson's testimony:
CNN's Henry: "The president under siege on two fronts, with the full Senate defying him on Iraq policy while a Senate committee hears explosive testimony in this U.S. attorney flap" ("Situation Room," 3/29).
MSNBC's Shuster: "Even administration supporters said today that testimony by Kyle Sampson was devastating" ("Hardball," 3/29).
PBS' Holman: "Since the controversy broke, Gonzales has maintained that the firings were not politically motivated, but for performance-related reasons. Today, Sampson said there is no real difference between the two interpretations" ("NewsHour," 3/29).
CNN's Bash, on GOPers' reax to Gonzales: "They're simply fed up. They say that, at this point, the attorney general has a very high bar to get over in order to explain himself. They're not pushing him over just yet. But they're certainly not getting out there to support him, not even close" ("AC 360," 3/29).
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA), on Gonzales: "I'm not going to run him out of town on a rail based on newspaper stories or television or radio interviews. I want to see him eyeball to eyeball. I want him under oath and hear what he has to say" ("LKL," CNN, 3/29). [EMILY GOODIN]
Dr. James Dobson clarifies his comments about Sen. Fred Thompson in statement released by his office:
“We welcome the opportunity to clarify Dr. Dobson’s remarks that were first reported in Dan Gilgoff’s online article titled ‘Dobson Offers Insight on 2008 Republican Hopefuls: Focus on the Family Founder Snubs Thompson, Praises Gingrich.’ At the outset, it’s important to note that this headline is an outright mischaracterization of the views Dr. Dobson expressed. His words weren’t intended to represent either an endorsement of former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich or a disparagement of former Sen. Fred Thompson. Dr. Dobson appreciates Sen. Thompson’s solid, pro-family voting record and his position that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided.
“In his conversation with Mr. Gilgoff, Dr. Dobson was attempting to highlight that to the best of his knowledge, Sen. Thompson hadn’t clearly communicated his religious faith, and many evangelical Christians might find this a barrier to supporting him. Dr. Dobson told Mr. Gilgoff he had never met Sen. Thompson and wasn’t certain that his understanding of the former senator’s religious convictions was accurate. Unfortunately, these qualifiers weren’t reported by Mr. Gilgoff. we were, however, pleased to learn from his spokesperson that Sen. Thompson professes to be a believer.
“With regard to Mr. Gingrich, while Dr. Dobson spoke positively about his intelligence and his ability to articulate conservative values, he expressed concern about the former speaker’s past moral failures. You may be aware that Mr. Gingrich recently appeared on a Focus on the Family broadcast to discuss America’s Christian heritage and the threat posed by radical Islam. Prior to the interview, Dr. Dobson asked Mr. Gingrich if he’d be willing to talk about his family life on the air because he felt our friends deserved an explanation. Those who listened to the exchange heard nothing indicating that Dr. Dobson excused Mr. Gingrich’s past indiscretions. The former speaker was offered a chance to address the subject openly and honestly, and he did so, stating, ‘I have turned to God and have gotten on my knees…and sought God’s forgiveness.’ Dr. Dobson firmly believes that Scripture teaches there is redemption available through Christ for those who confess their sins – were it not so, we’d all be in a world of trouble. Of course, only the Lord knows the condition of individual hearts.
“In conclusion, we would caution friends of our ministry not to believe what they read about Dr. Dobson in the secular media today. Never in the 30-year history of this ministry has there been more misreporting and outright distortion of his beliefs and teachings. It is apparent that those who represent a liberal worldview seek to marginalize him and confuse our friends. Anyone who ever has a question concerning what they read about Dr. Dobson or Focus on the Family is encouraged to contact us for clarification. The chances are they have been misinformed.”
On why Rudy endorsed Mario Cuomo (D) over George Pataki (R) in '94: "[Pataki] has plans to reduce taxes that are so ambitious and so inconsistent with the performance of the economy of the state. It would be a disaster. It would be the kind of tax shift that substitutes for sound management."
How high can Hillary go? Place your bids and come on down!
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John McCain is counting on Steve Duprey in NH and Chuck Larson in IA. But he needs another key ally to deliver an even bigger prize: David Petraeus in Iraq.
-- In his 3/28 spat with Obama, and his online "surrender is not an option" petition, McCain revealed a new optimism about Iraq and a shift in his WH '08 strategy. When he returns from the region next week, he'll give what aides bill as a major policy address about progress under Petraeus and new standards for success.
-- His notable pessimism and calls to "do our duty" have suggested, as Obama said 3/28, that McCain wants to stay in Iraq indefinitely. But in the weeks ahead, aides say, he'll evince a can-do spirit and conviction that America can get Iraq right because new tactics are working.
-- McCain's toughest task is convincing voters to give the war another shot, even if there are signs of success. That's why he frontally rebuffed Obama, asking why the Dem would choose to surrender in the wake of "early progress." It's a hard argument for McCain to build. But as the WH '08er most closely tied to the war, does he have any other choice?
Federal agents are conducting “worksite enforcement” actions, otherwise known as raids, in and around the Baltimore area this afternoon, a senior Homeland Security official confirms. Agents from the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement Bureau have gone to 8 locations, and officials will hold a press conference at 2:00 PM ET, said Marc Raimondi, the ICE spokesperson.
The worksite action comes on the heels of a raid in New Bedford, Mass., on a clothing manufacturer who held millions of dollars in Defense contracts. ICE rounded up several hundred people in that raid, but stirred the ire of Massachusetts Sens. John Kerry and Edward Kennedy because some of the apprehended illegal workers were separated from their young children, some of whom were born in the United States and are citizens. Kerry has called for an investigation into how the raid was planned and carried out, and Kennedy compared the plight of children and family members separated from the apprehended workers to the “human suffering that we all witnessed after the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Katrina.
ICE officials defended themselves against criticism from the lawmakers, as well as state and local officials, who accused the agency of being ham handed in its approach. ICE noted that state and local agencies, as well as the governor’s office, were briefed in advance of the raid, and that the workplace raid was a legitimate part of ICE’s mission to enforce immigration laws. They also said they took steps to ensure that any workers who were the sole providers for children at home were let go for “humanitarian” reasons.
Presumably, ICE officials will be especially sensitive in how they process suspected illegal workers in the Maryland raids today. Raimondi said that the Maryland raid is “not as big” as the one in New Bedford, indicating that not as many workers will have been rounded up by the end of the day. [SHANE HARRIS]
Rudy Giuliani said that if elected president, he would have no problem allowing his wife Judith Giuliani to sit in on cabinet meetings, "If she wanted to. If they were relevant to something that she was interested in. I mean that would be something that I'd be very, very comfortable with," he said.
Judy Giuliani:
"Rudy and I have never had any secrets from each other. … Rudy and I have always known everything about each other," she said. "I have just recently begun -- I think they call it in the political world -- being 'rolled out publicly.' … And when I was asked, we discussed it. That was my decision."
When asked how she and Rudy had met, Judith said, "That's one thing that I would kind of like to keep private," but she did say the two met "by accident."
She said that the two were instantly attracted to each other, and that "from the minute that Rudy and I met, we had an incredible … mutual respect for each other."
We don't endorse all the content on 'em -- they're independent, after all, which is a good thing -- but we do vouch for the sites' influence in their states and, generally, the degree to which folks in both major parties find them fair. Some are run by folks who have backgrounds in politics; others are authored by journalists. Some are fully-fledged news organizations.
To be included in our informal network, the sites must operate independently of any political candidate or of any entity that represents political candidates. No one operating a site can be paid by a firm that has an '08 candidate as a client. Site contributors linked to campaigns must disclose their affiliations. If site owners decide to donate to, volunteer for or raise money for any candidate ('08 or otherwise), they gotta tell you about first -- in big bold type, at the top of their pages. That way, you'll know. Other than that, enjoy!
How much the '08 will raise doesn't interest us nearly as much as their line item disbursements. Where they're spending their money geographically, how much senior strategists are getting paid, which "endorsers" get consulting contracts, how much direct mail prospecting has cost and what the rate of return was... Dan Hoover is already starting to notice. BTW: Why was Alex Castellanos, who is a top strategist for Mitt Romney, having dinner with Fred Thompson?
If Barack Obama refuses to take campaign contributions from lobbyists but allows lobbyists to hit up their wives, husbands and families for contributions, and is able to raise more than $200K at a tony law and lobby firm in DC, can he cleanly claim to have taken a real symbolic step in ridding his campaign of the pernicious influence of those scandalous l-worders?
We might have wanted to hear what CBN Newsers were talking about during last night's Radio Television Correspondents Association dinner. Guests included Michelle Malkin and David Vitter. Wonder if immigration and/or Rudy came up.
A list of moneymen that'd make Chris Cillizza cry.
And our Capitol Fax Blog's Rich Miller tells us that the IL House has voted to move its primary to 2/5. [MARC AMBINDER]
Next week, watch for ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani's first stretch of serious retail campaign stops. According to an aide, Giuliani will attend events and participate in town hall meetings in New Hampshire, Iowa, Florida and South Carolina.
"He and his surrogates have spent this week (and will spend the next couple of weeks) talking about his record of fiscal conservativism and his commitment to supply-side economics," the Giuliani aide said.
Expect lots of New York know how -- as in, "Know how Rudy fought the unions?" "Know how Rudy tamed the liberal bureaucracies?" as in "Know how Rudy cut taxes?"
The message of the tour, according to the aide, is this: "Rudy is the true fiscal conservative in this race. He doesn’t talk the talk – he has walked the walk."
Florida is an interesting addition to the tour. The state may well move its primary to 1/29, and for Rudy, it would put more blush on the attractive idea of dancing around the conventional early primaries and making his stand in the bigger states where his popularity alone could carry him to victory. In the bigger states, Rudy's media image is paramount. Note: if the local TV stations there cover the message that we've described above, consider it a good trip. [MARC AMBINDER}
Several '08ers were on TV last night to talk about Iraq.
Joe Biden: "What people don't read about the Senate resolution, the Senate bill we passed, it sets a goal just as the same goal set out by the Baker-Hamilton commission, the Iraq Study Group, to have combat troops out by March of '08, except for those left behind to protect the borders, to protect our troops, train Iraqis and go after al Qaeda. It is not as the president portrays it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).
Bill Richardson: "I would not leave any troops in Iraq. ... If I were president today, I would withdraw by the end of this calendar year, depending on what our military says. But I would also have a reconciliation conference of the three religious groups, forge a coalition government, divide the country into three entities. ... I don't believe you need a residual force in Iraq. I believe you need any troops that you can deploy from Iraq. I would put them in Afghanistan, where al Qaeda and the Taliban are serious threats" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/28).
Barack Obama: "I'm very proud of the fact that I was against this war from the start."
More: "Now, there is a ratcheting-up of pressure on the president. And I am very pleased about the vote that took place yesterday, where a majority of the Senate for the first time said we need to have a timetable."
Obama: "John McCain may believe that it's an option for us to maintain an indefinite occupation of Iraq, regardless what happens in terms of the politics within Iraq, so that we're, every year, sending $100 billion over to Iraq, so that, every year, we're seeing hundreds or thousands of young Americans dying, so that we continue to see a deterioration of America's standing in the world. I don't think that serves the best interests of the United States. ... I don't question John McCain's sincerity in believing that the approach that he wants to take, which is essentially a continuation of Bush policies over the last six years, are the right ones to take."
On the fired U.S. attys scandal: "I think that the issue of executive power and executive privilege is one that is subject to abuse and in an Obama presidency what you will see will be a sufficient respect for law and coequal branches of government that I hope we don't find ourselves in a situation in which we would be having aides being subpoenaed for what I think everybody acknowledges is some troublesome information."
Asked about gay groups being upset he didn't respond to Gen. Pace's comments: "I'm not sure that the story got out there properly. I mean, what happened was I was leaving a firefighters' union meeting and trying to get in my car and did not respond to a reporter's query at that point. I wasn't responding to reporters period because I was trying to make a vote. Subsequently I made it very clear. I don't think that gays and lesbians are any more moral or immoral than heterosexuals and that I think it is very important for us to reexamine the don't ask, don't tell policy because it's costing us millions of dollars in replacing troops that by all accounts are actually doing a good job but are simply being kicked out of the military because of their sexual orientation."
On Al Sharpton: "I don't think there was much going on there. The Reverend Sharpton has been a terrific advocate on behalf of the dispossessed. I've always expressed my respect for him. I think this was a misunderstanding as a consequence of his reading of a report in New York, and I called him and said we had nothing to with the article" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/28). [EMILY GOODIN]
It's come up before, and we'll bring it up again. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney was not a lover of Steve Forbes's flat tax, and, as a "concerned citizen," took out ads in Boston, New Hampshire and Iowa in 1996 to send the publisher that message.
At the end of the ad, Romney argues that government money is better spent on a series of priorities, including reudcing abortion, fighting pornography, ending frivolous lawsuits .... and campaign finance reform.
Mitt and McCain are battling to lower the bar, but when the fundraising dust clears, will either have money to burn? We've got the bottom line.
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Did Chuck Hagel help hand his party a major defeat on Iraq and, coupled with his recent use of the I-word re: Pres. Bush, further cement his status as the Senate GOP's biggest, baddest maverick? Or did Hagel unwittingly help his fellow GOPers put Senate Dems on record calling for a timetable, forcing yet another showdown with Bush and putting Dems on course toward '08 defeat?
-- In either case, one thing seems virtually certain: Hagel's no longer planning a WH '08 bid, at least not as a GOPer. (Or, alternatively, not one he plans to win).
-- Two weeks after he announced he'd announce his '08 intentions later, and voted against identical withdrawal language, Hagel delivered the deciding vote 3/27 for Dems' timetable. It was the vote of a GOPer seeking re-election in NE, where even GOPers like ex-Rep. Bereuter oppose the war. It wasn't the vote of a GOPer plotting a WH race against McCain, Romney and Giuliani in SC and beyond.
-- On the other hand, is Hagel simply ahead of the curve? He called for AG Gonzales to resign on 3/25; today, the National Review followed suit.
Barack Obama would be the 4th president to have served in Congress without completing at least one full term. James Monroe spent a few years in the Senate, while Andrew Jackson served only partial terms in both the House and Senate. Warren G. Harding resigned about 2 months prior to end of his only Senate term to assume the presidency. Abraham Lincoln and Benjamin Harrison served exactly one term in the House and Senate, respectively.
McCaskill talks about putting her fiscal skills into practice on the Hill -- and getting some accountability on Iraq. Here's a preview:
McCaskill: "We have never turned the president down for one dime of money for this war, ever. Every dime he's asked for, Congress has given him. Up until right now. And so if we don't have what we need to do the job, then somebody has some explaining to do. Why don't people lose their jobs when they misspend money in the Department of Defense?"
Besides a lot of well wishes for Tony Snow last night, TV concentrated on the Senate vote on Iraq:
John McCain was in the "Situation Room" last night to discuss Iraq (the interview took place before the SEN vote). He started his interview by saying: "Could I just say, I am a supporter of the new strategy. It's a new strategy. It's an increase in troops, but it's an entirely different strategy. And it is succeeding, as we speak."
More: "I am confident hell won't freeze over. I am confident we can succeed if we stay with this strategy. And if I'm wrong, we've got a lot more problems than anything that it does to my political reputation."
Asked if AG Gonzales should resign: "No, I think he should be able to make his case and everybody should work together so that he can make that case. I certainly believe in executive privilege, but I'm hoping that reasonable people could sit down and work out a way to get this whole issue out in the open and resolved" (CNN, 3/27).
And McCain made the morning show rounds this a.m.
CNN's Malveaux: "So far ... the White House is not yet worried. They think this is veto-proof legislation. But, then, if the Republicans start jumping ship, it is going to be a big problem. So far, the strategy is, despite the fact that it's going to be the president to veto, they are painting this as the Democrats vs. the U.S. troops" ("AC 360," 3/27).
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS): "We knew the vote could go either way. It was going to be close, and we lost. But I think what it really means is the president is really going to be forced by the Democrats in Congress to veto this bill. That's a tough decision, because it contains funds that are needed now for giving the troops in the field what they need to protect themselves and do a better job of winning this war" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/27).
FNC's Garrett: "The president's veto still stands. But Democrats will argue that both chambers of Congress have now embraced a timeline for withdrawal. They know the president will not accept it, and they will have to compromise eventually, but in those talks, Democrats now feel, they have more clout than if the Senate had killed this troop withdrawal timeline" ("Special Report," 3/27). [EMILY GOODIN]
Now Hiring: GOP Senate candidates in CO. Competitive benefits; duties could go either way. Don't call us, we'll call you.
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They're the biggest '08 Dem storylines: B. Clinton is a double-edged sword for HRC, and Obamamania will subside, a victim of rookie flaws. Both stories drive the race today, and they have more in common than you think.
-- As HRC counts the millions he has helped her raise, the NYT writes about her efforts to repair his "rocky relationship" with military brass. House GOPers want him to testify about the (Marc Rich) pardons. And HRC, campaigning in IA, dismissed GOP comparisons between the Bush atty firings and those in Clinton's DoJ.
-- Meanwhile, two new polls show the Oboomlet stalled, as some black Dems move back to "undecided" and women stick w/Clinton. Three days after his health-care know-how was panned in Vegas, AP asks, "Is Obama all style and little substance?"
-- Notably, HRC and Obama benefit by comparison to one another's downsides. HillaryCare 2.0 drew raves in Vegas; she's learned a lot since '93. Obama has no past presidents to apologize for; being a rookie does have its upsides. One year from now, which story will drive this race?
The AP reports that WH spokesperson Tony Snow's exam yesterday showed his cancer has returned:
Snow, 51, had his colon removed in 2005 and underwent six months of chemotherapy after being diagnosed with colon cancer. A small growth was discovered last year in his lower right pelvic area, and it was removed on Monday. Doctors determined that it was cancerous, and that his cancer had metastized, or spread, to his liver, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.
She said Snow is resting comfortably after his surgery and has pledged to aggressively fight the disease with an as-yet-to-be-determined treatment course.
"He said he's going to beat it again," Perino said in an emotional morning briefing with White House reporters. "When I talked to him, he was in very good spirits."
AG Alberto Gonzales sat down with NBC's Pete Williams:
Gonzales: "I was not involved in the deliberations during the process as to who should or should not be asked to resign. I depended on the people who knew about how these United States attorneys were performing, people within the department who would have personal knowledge about these individuals."
More: "I know the reasons why I asked these United States attorneys to leave, and it was not for improper reasons, it was not to interfere with a public corruption case, it was not for partisan reasons. I also, we also know that there is nothing in the documents that indicates that they were asked to leave for improper reasons."
On if he'll resign: "I think that every Cabinet official has to ask themselves -- every day - Is it still appropriate for me to lead a Cabinet department? It's something that I've been asking myself more lately than perhaps others. Because at the end of the day, it's not about Alberto Gonzales. It's about this great Department of Justice. .. I'm confident that ... we can still move forward and still continue to do great things for the American people. And as long as I have the confidence of the president, I intend to do just that."
THE ABCs OF CAMPAIGNING
ABC's Terry Moran joined John McCain on the Straight Talk Express:
Asked if being tied to Bush is a liability for him, McCain: "Sure. But one, you've got to do what's right. Second, there is a little irony that I was the greatest critic of the way the war was mismanaged. But life isn't fair. There's so much at stake here, in this conflict that, you know, I really must do what's right.. ... I have no choice. Nor would I consider any other choice."
On not being the frontrunner when everyone expected him to be: "Yeah. You know, we're a little concerned, obviously. I mean, to say that, you know, sounds great. But I think this is the beginning of the campaign. I'm glad where we are, financially, politically, every other way. I'm happy. In these early states, we are either tied or ahead with all of our competitors. So I'm happy about that. But do we have a lot of work to do? Sure."
Asked if he's moving to the right: "If you look at my positions on literally every issue, I haven't changed. I'm no different from what I was. And that's a tiny bit frustrating to me that this portrayal, well, he's pandered to this or done that. I don't know" ("Nightline," ABC, 3/26).
ANOTHER CALL FOR GONZALES TO STEP DOWN
Chris Dodd was in the "Situation Room":
On Gonzales: "The time has come based on the information over the weekend and this kind of information that the attorney general really needs to step aside. The president ought to be asking for his resignation. This story is only going to get worse."
On Hagel saying Bush could be impeached: "I don't want to see us jump to this right now. It seems to me this is getting ahead of ourselves. There have been calls already. Various people have raised that as a suggestion here. I'd rather see us try and resolve some of these outstanding issues we have here."
More: "I've been down this road -- that foolish effort to impeach Bill Clinton, that took so much time and effort here, I would be very cautious about jumping to that procedure here of impeachment having been through it once already" (CNN, 3/26).
AND NOW, THE REST OF THE STORY
And here are some updates on yesterday's big stories:
Tom Vilsack, asked if he was looking at the VP mansion: "The key is just for Senator Clinton to do well in Iowa and begin this campaign. Honestly that's the focus. We have got to focus on Iowa. We have got a tough fight ahead of us" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/26).
FNC's Angle: "We know that this was a Senator Webb's gun, that it was brought in by one of his aides. Apparently Senator Webb went to the airport at some point in the last couple of days, and the aide took the bag with the loaded weapon in it. ... It was in some bag the senator had, but he was getting on a plane, and could not take it with him, obviously. Now, the interesting thing here ... is that if a senator goes through security, you don't have to put your things on the belt. You don't have to go through metal detector. You just walk around it. And you can also waive an aide around if you wish. So, he could have done this many times and it never have come to the attention of anyone" ("Special Report," 3/26). [EMILY GOODIN]
From Ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack's endorsement of Sen. Hillary Clinton:
Christie and I plan on spending the next 10 months helping Hillary win the Iowa caucuses and the other states necessary to win the Democratic nomination -- and after that, the White House in 2008.
State Sen. Barack Obama's self-injection into a Chicago city council run-off isn't ordinarily a topic that earns space in the Hotline or on On Call.
But Sen. Barack Obama, the presidential candidate, gets a whole new level of scrutiny.
He's decided to help an old friend, Dorothy "The Hat" Tillman, who is described by the Chicago Sun Times as having "an iron grip on every nickel that rolls into the 3rd Ward and has pulled in the backing of virtually every black big shot in the city."
Writes a Sun-Times columnist: "Obama's campaign mailers aren't going to mention Tillman's deployment of city resources to hire her family and reward campaign contributors, nor her abject neglect of the ward." She's also a prominent supporter of slavery reparations. But she began her career in Alabama working side-by-side with Dr. Martin Luther King.
BTW: Jesse Jackson, Jr. supports Tillman's opponent, Pat Dowell, as do most of Chicago's labor unions.
Why is Obama getting intimately involved in Chicago ward politics? Loyalty. He's loyal to Tillman, who endorsed Obama in '04 when Obama opponent Blair Hull was furiously courting Chicago's black political power elite. Same reason he endorsed Richard Daley's mayoral re-election. Obama may be running a different campaign, but he's a political realist -- something that Ryan Lizza captures nicely. [MARC AMBINDER]
Iraq and the fired U.S. attorneys dominated the Sunday shows but we begin with John and Elizabeth Edwards's appearance on "60 Minutes":
E. Edwards, on if the cancer has spread to other spots: "There are a couple of hot spots, on the bone scan. In my right hip, for example. And one of the questions was whether or not to do radiation on that to reduce the size of the cancer in that location for fear that it might weaken my bone and that I might break my hip. But the consensus was that it was too small an area for that to be a risk. You know, we were on a real roller coaster."
E. Edwards, on the decision to keep campaigning: "You really have two choices here. I mean, either you push forward with the things that you were doing yesterday or you start dying. That seems to be your only two choices. If I had given up everything that my life was about, first of all, I'd let cancer win before it needed to. You know, maybe eventually it will win, but I let it win before it needed to. And I just basically start dying. I don't want to do that. I want to live. ... I want next year to look like last year, and the year after that and the year after that. And the only way to do that is to say, 'I'm going to keep on with my life.'"
More E. Edwards: "It is our intention to deny cancer any control over us, and though I know that there are people who live short lives, I feel optimistic, not because I've got rose-colored glasses on, but because I know that I have only low volume -- a small amount of cancer in my bones."
J. Edwards: "I can promise you, we don't understate or misunderstand the seriousness of this. I mean, this could kill her. And we know it. And what we choose to do is we choose to live our lives fully and with strength and optimism. We get to make that choice. And that's what we choose."
E. Edwards: "That would be my legacy, wouldn't it ... that I'd taken out this fine man from the possibility of giving a great service. I mean, I don't want that to be my legacy."
J. Edwards, on people saying he's capitalizing on this: "Here's what I would say about that. First of all, there's not a single person in America that should vote for me because Elizabeth has cancer. Not a one. If you're considering doing it, don't do it. Do not vote for us because you feel some sympathy or compassion for us. That would be an enormous mistake. The vote for the presidency is far too important for -any of those things to influence it. But I think every single candidate for president, Republican and Democratic, have lives, personal lives, that indicates something about what kind of human being they are. And I think it is a fair evaluation for America to engage in, to look at what kind of human beings each of us are and what kind of president we'd make."
Asked if he's putting work before his family, J. Edwards: "But this is not work. Work is what I did as a lawyer. This is service."
On those who question his ability to run the country while dealing with his wife's illness, J. Edwards: "All I can tell you is I know from my own life experience that I could do it. I don't have to guess about that. Second, people will be able to watch during the course of this campaign, and I ask them to watch."
More J. Edwards: "We have every reason to be optimistic right now. I believe in my heart and soul that Elizabeth is going to do well. I do believe that. She will be out there campaigning with me and separately. If you ask me today whether I'm in this campaign for the duration, the answer to that question is yes."
TOO MANY COOKS IN IRAQ'S KITCHEN?
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL): "The Senate will take a little bit different approach. It will set as a goal of the withdrawal of some of the troops, leaving troops for the purpose of training the Iraqi army for force protection which could include border patrol. And that follows the recommendation of the unanimous, bipartisan Iraq Study Commission. That, combined with a very aggressive, diplomatic effort in the region is what we're going need to have" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT): "I would like to see us come out of there, but I don't want to undermine the troops, nor do I want to act like a super-imposing general because I'm a senator in the United States Senate" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).
Iraqi Amb. Samir Sumaidaie, on what would happen if Congress sets a deadline for troops: "I don't expect them to do so. Secondly, if they did, they would live to regret it."
More: "If we set out a date now for a complete withdrawal, you can bet your bottom dollar that the terrorists are going to be waiting for that date and attacking and launching their biggest attack on civilians and the institutions of state of Iraq" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).
Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), on if they have the votes to take the timetable out of the Iraq bill: "We have not done a whip check specifically on this upcoming vote, but I believe that we do. There are members in the Senate in both parties that are not comfortable with how things have gone in Iraq. But they understand that artificial timetables, even as goals, are a problem" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).
ALL ABOUT ALBERTO
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC): "The attorney general has been wounded because of his performance, not because of politics. And he is willing to come before the Senate and explain himself under oath. And I think he should. And we should allow him to tell his side of the story, ask him hard questions, not run him off because of newspaper articles. But I'm very disturbed by the way this has been handled. And there's no substitute for him coming into the Senate."
More: "He's going to have to come to the Senate and re-establish his credibility. He's going to have to prove to us that there was a legitimate reason this was poorly handled, because you can't say it was anything other than poorly handled. Nothing nefarious happened here. I'm willing to hear him out. I think he deserves to be heard out" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), on admin officials: "I want them in the open, under oath, publicly, where both Republican senators and Democratic senators can ask questions. You know, our founders devised this system of checks and balances. This administration has been used to going unchecked. The balances kicked in last November, and they're going to have to deal with that reality" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).
Graham: "The way to handle this, in my opinion, is to have a private conference, interview, with Karl Rove, Harriet Miers, and have a transcript so we know what happened" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 3/25).
Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA): "Attorney General Gonzales' testimony will be a make or break situation for him. There are a lot of questions to be answered beyond credibility. There's no doubt that what has happened has had a very chilling effect on the United States attorneys across the country."
On Gonzales: "As to his independence, there's a real question that he has allied himself a little too closely with the president when the attorney general has broader responsibilities than most other Cabinet officers. ... I want to hear from him directly what he did vis-a-vis the White House, what kind of independence he showed, if any."
Specter: "If there's a confrontation here on executive privilege for the president and oversight by the Congress, it's going to take a long time to decide. The last matter took more than two years, so we'd be in the term of another president before the courts had ruled. ... I think the president is wrong when he refuses to have a transcript. If you don't have a transcript, senators are going to walk out and, in good faith, have different versions as to what occurred. ... I would vastly prefer to have the situation public because there is a great public concern here" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/25).
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL): "It would be so refreshing to bring a real prosecutor in there, someone independent to clean up the Department of Justice to restore the integrity and credibility, what that important agency needs" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 3/25).
Nelson, asked if Gonzales should resign: "Personally, I would because I think he's lost his credibility. But I think we ought to go through the procedures and hear what he says. And I don't see what all this fuss is about people coming forth and raising their hand and saying they're going tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. That's what the American people deserve, and that's what we ought to get to" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).
Hatch, on Gonzales: "He's honest, he's decent and he's honorable. But let's be honest about it, the Justice Department has bungled this attorney thing. There's no question about it. There's no excuse for it" ("Late Edition," CNN, 3/25).
Lott: "I see no evidence that anything illegal was done or improper. As a matter of fact, it looks to me like when you look at the dates there that this discussion took place kind of after the decisions had been made" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), on Gonzales: "He called me when I began to become involved in this and told me I didn't know my facts, I didn't know what I was doing. And it turns out he wasn't telling me the truth then either. ... I believe he should step down, and I don't like saying this. This is not my natural personality at all. But I think the nation is not well served by this. I think we need to get at the bottom of why these resignations were made, who ordered them, and what the strategy was" ("Fox News Sunday," 3/25).
HAGEL'S STILL HAGEL
Only one '08er appeared on the Sunday shows this weekend. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) was on "This Week":
On Gonzales: "He does have a credibility problem."
More: "I don't know if he got bad advice or if he was not involved in the day-to-day management. I don't know what the problem is, but he's got a problem. You cannot have the nation's chief law enforcement officer with a cloud hanging over his credibility. ... This needs to be addressed, and I think the president makes a big mistake if he tries to make this a constitutional issue and make it a separation of powers issues. Fix the problem."
Asked if he thinks Gonzales can still be AG: "I do not, and I think the president is going to have to make a tough choice here."
Asked if the admin should send officials up to testify: "That's the way I would do it, and I think we have a very clear past record of other presidents taking that same course of action and I think we have a very clear past record of other presidents taking that same course of action. President Reagan did that on Iran-Contra. The Washington Post has a story today that highlights your picture and your episode."
ABC's Stephanopoulos: "Thanks for reminding me, senator."
Hagel: "And we were very appreciative of your selfless public service to our country, George."
On Congress' role in Iraq: "Congress is going to play a role now like we've not played before. You've already seen the House play that role. We will debate it this week in the Senate. Senator Jim Webb and I are going to introduce some legislation that will in fact have the force of law in the future involvement of our military and our country, and what conditions that future will be."
On the resolution: "It will be binding legislation, and it will be focused on deployment, redeployment, training, equipment."
On his presser saying he'd make on a decision on the future in the future: "I didn't ask all the media to come. In fact, I don't think there was one network correspondent there, except one from a cable news show. I told the people of Nebraska that I would make an announcement on a decision sometime early this year. I owed that to them. I thought about just putting out a press release ... and saying, this is what I'm going to do. Then I thought, I don't think that's right. People deserve to understand why. And I think the way to do that is just come before them. I went to Nebraska. We didn't make a big deal about it. We didn't ask people to come. We put out a one-paragraph statement. I didn't ask the party to come. My family wasn't there. It was the press who built this up. I didn't build that."
More: "I will make a decision when I think I'm ready and my family is ready. I can't control what the Nebraska people or the people of this country will do or will not do. I learned a long time ago to put my energies in the things ... that I can control. So I'm sorry if I didn't fulfill expectations of some people, but I never misled anybody on this" (ABC, 3/25).
ROUNDTABLE ROUNDUP
The "Fox News Sunday" roundtable discussed the U.S. attys story, WH '08, and cong. action on Iraq:
Fortune's Easton, on Elizabeth Edwards: "She loves the campaign trail. She thrives on it. She's said as much. I think this decision was at least as much hers as his."
The "Face the Nation" roundtable discussed the U.S. attys and WH '08:
New York Times' Brooks, on if the attys' story will effect '08: "I would say only if we have two years of partisan warfare. That's going to disgust everybody. And that's what the Democrats really have to worry about, that they had 100 hours of policy to start the legislative year. I didn't realize that would be the end of their legislation. If they're all scandal all the time, that will sicken people in both parties."
The CNN roundtable discussed cong. action on Iraq, Gonzales, and WH '08.
CNN's Bash, on Congress and Iraq: "This all could and it's very likely to stop when this gets to the Senate, because, as you know, the votes aren't there."
Dem strategist Donna Brazile: "There are millions of cancer survivors out in this country today, and they are applauding the decision by the Edwardses to keep going. Life goes on."
Ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie: "That's a decision for John Edwards and Elizabeth Edwards to make with their doctor. And no one, I don't think, frankly, has a right to second-guess it."
The "This Week" roundtable talked about WH '08, cong. action on Iraq, and Gonzales.
When John McCain told reporters yesterday that his campaign's fundraising efforts had been hurt by a late start, was he artfully trying to lower expectations?
A Mitt Romney fundraiser with access to the campaign's daily fundraising tallies tells the Hotline that Romney won't raise more than $20 million -- much lower than the $30 to $35 million figure being floated about Washington by some of Romney's allies.
The fundraiser, who asked to remain anonymous in order to revisit McCain's claims, said that McCain's campaign was engaged in an elaborate game of deception in order to set Romney up. The thinking is that by artificially pumping up the amount of money Romney is expected to raise, the press will dutifully note that Romney "failed" to meet that non-realistic, externally-imposed goal. That'd be a bit of a psychic blow to the campaign.
A Romney campaign aide said last night that "McCain will be in first."
Money comes from three sources: the rolodexes of major "raisers," like Bush pioneers and rich folks; direct mail and e-mail lists; and in-person fundraisers, where major donors and fundraisers are rewarded for their work.
Who's right? Does it matter? Should anyone care?
First, keep in mind that neither side knows how much the other side has actually raised. The daily cash on hand totals are not widely distributed in either campaign. If Romney raises only $18 million, then McCain will eclipse him. If he raises in excess of $25M, McCain might now.
The only number we're getting from the McCain campaign -- unofficially, of course -- is that McCain's haul won't exceed $30M.
Maybe we can answer the questions by asking a different one: who has the most to benefit from exceeding expectations? Romney's had a rough several months, and a higher-than-expected total would let undecided Republicans and donors know that he's still alive. McCain is no longer the numerical frontrunner and has endured weeks of news stories attaching the adjective "floundering" to "campaign." If McCain tops the field by $5 million, it's a show of strength. But the media really won't buy the notion that his fundraising network, which took John Weaver and co. several years to put together, would stumble out of the gate. [MARC AMBINDER]
GRAFTON CO., NH -- Sen. John McCain said his presidential campaign would not meet its fundraising goals this quarter, and his campaign advisers acknowledged that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney may wind up raising more.
"We're going to pay a price for it because we got a late start," McCain told reporters in New Hampshire. "We're not going to meet the goals we had." He later said he did not know whether Romney would outpace him, but his advisers did not downplay that possibility. They also did not rule out finishing first.
McCain contends that his exploratory committee's opening in December and the rush of the busy holiday season did not allow his campaign to begin fundraising in earnest until January. But once that month began, owing in part to a busy Senate schedule, McCain attended only two fundraisers and only two in February. There are twenty scheduled for all of this month, and another twenty in April.
"These are moments, none of which at the end of the day impact winning the nomination," said John Weaver, McCain's chief strategist. "We're on track to do that. Every campaign would trade places with us. We wouldn't trade places with anyone else."
Some Republicans estimate that Romney, whose network of friends, business contacts and party donors is expansive, could accumulate more than $30 or even $35 million this quarter. McCain is not likely to raise in excess of $30M, according to Republicans outside his campaign who have been given the unofficial estimate. Neither Weaver nor any other McCain aide would hazard a guess about their first quarter tally.
A Romney spokesman noted that McCain had recruited more major Bush donors than any other candidate, and possesses a large direct mail list from his earlier presidential campaigns. The Romney spokesman said that McCain was trying to artificially lower expectations.
If Romney reports a higher fundraising tally on April 15, he'll not be faulted for bragging about his strength after what his aides acknowledge was a rough start to his campaign.
Both campaigns agree that two numbers due by mid-July -- six months worth of receipts and the amount of money remaining in their accounts -- are better diagnostic indicators of their candidate's viability.
Romney, in particular, will be burdened with the expectation that he ought to keep pace with McCain and end the half-year with at least $30 to $40 million in the bank. Both campaigns worry about their high burn rates. They both pay the salaries of more than 100 full-time staff members and numerous consultants. Romney even has several field organizers in Florida, placed there when the campaign presumed that the Florida Republican Party would schedule a straw poll for the fall. They ultimately did not. [MARC AMBINDER]
BERLIN, NH -- Seen at at least three McCain events in New Hampshire today:
Jim Wieczorek, the campaign manager of Rudy Giuliani.. (He even clapped a few times.)
At one point, John Weaver ambled over and introduced himself and offered to let Wieczorek ride about the Straight Talk Express. Wieczorek politely declined.
Also: a polite video-camera toting tracker from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign.
LITTLETON, NH -- There are Republicans in New Hampshire north of Concord. Really. "As far as I know," one Republican said to McCain, "you're the only candidate who has gone past Concord. All of the other candidates think there's nothing north of Concord."
Technically, Rudy Giuliani's roadshow wandered up here and Mitt Romney summers on Lake Winnepisaukee. But most candidates confine their appearances to the vote rich region from the northernmost limits of the Concord city line, South. Only about 25 percent of the state voters live among the lakes and in the small towns among the White Mountains to the North. They tend to be more socially and economically conservative than Republicans who live in the suburbs of Massachusetts.
When voters dumped Reps. Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley from office last November, Grafton County was one of the few to stay Republican. McCain's NH campaign has about a half dozen organizers working full-time in this region. McCain has noticed that voters up here ask him more questions about the economy than voters in Manchester. Everyone mentions the closing of the timber mills in Berlin. They haven't come back. Sen. Hillary Clinton has proposed converting paper mills into energy producing facilities that process ethanol. McCain said it "sounds like a good idea." (Wood can be a profitable source of ethanol.)
Voters up here take pride in their independence (duh), but major endorsements matter more here than they do a hundred miles to the South. It's harder to organize up here. That's why McCain's campaign is trying to recruit Laconia high school football coach Jim Fitzgerald. He's a two-term state rep. who knows how to put together a campaign.[MARC AMBINDER]
Littleton Republicans greeted Sen. John McCain like an old friend, and he returned the favor. He was (a), on time, and (b) full of energy. Some of his self-protective senior advisers blanch when they read news reports about how McCain, eight years older, seems slower, more hesitant, less springy. How do these reporters know? Do they measure the reach of his hand gestures and compare it to old video footage?
Regardless, McCain was spry. And he was optimistic. A reporter asked him whether he was now optimistic about the future of Iraq. "I think it's fair to say that I'm optimistic," he said. He ticked off a list of reasons why (a pacified Sadr, more clean neighborhoods, better intelligence, more cooperation between U.S. and Iraqi troops, etc). And he'll have the chance to confirm his optimism first-hand when he visits next week. He blasted House Democrats for passing "an intellectually dishonest" troop withdrawal bill that was "laden with pork." It's "the most shameful" thing he's ever seen as a Senator.
"We will win," he told the Littletown crowd. It's not a line he would have used a few months ago.
He was asked about the Iranian capture of British troops. America, he said, should be prepared to used "very stringent" measures if they're not released.
After a lengthy discussion about campaign finance reform initiated by conservative blogger Matt Lewis, McCain grew tired one of one line of questioning about public financing. When ABC's Terry Moran asked him how much he thought his campaign would cost, McCain shook his head. "I don't want to talk about... you know, I'll just talk about anything else you want, but I'm bored with this one."
MEREDITH, NH -- The Straight Talk Express rumbles to life tomorrow morning in a converted church parking lot about 56 miles and an $120 dollar Queen Anne's cab ride north of Manchester. Sen. John McCain is here on a make-up mission. A week ago, his progress got stuck in the snow. He'll make a day-long arc along the feeder bands of Lake Winnipesaukee (that's where Mitt Romney summers) with town hall stops in Littleton, North Conway and Plymouth.
It's not an Express. It's a Local. McCain is bringing several campaign aides from headquarters along for the trip. They're supposed to watch McCain interact with reporters and reporters interact with McCain. Save your money: he calls us "jerks" and we say "please sir, can I have another?" The A-tier reporters get personal ribbing by McCain. It's a "sign of affection."
Believe it or not, McCain is still the guy to beat in New Hampshire. Not a single reputable poll has shown him behind other Republicans. (Right, Mark Blumenthal?) It's fair to say that his nomination quest will be an exceedingly uphill slog if he doesn't win the state he won in 2000. I don't think he has to win Iowa, but I'll save those thoughts for an Iowa trip. [MARC AMBINDER]
The Hotline's Marc Ambinder and NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd will collaborate on race rankings until we don't.
We've got a new No. 1 this week, and it reflects several realities. For one thing, there's a deep hunger on the Republican side for a candidate who can rebrand the party after seven-plus years of President Bush. Also, the issue stuff just doesn't seem to be hurting Rudy Giuliani yet, and we can't help but think that the early predictions of his doom were overstated.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
1. Rudy Giulian Last Ranking: 2
There are three distinct camps among those Republicans who don't think Giuliani will win the nomination: the McCain camp, the Huckabee camp and the Arlington camp. The McCain camp believes questions about Giuliani's business practices and his personal character will disqualify him, and that his liberal positions on issues will be the coup de grace. The MSM is mostly in this camp. The Huckabee camp believes Giuliani is objectively too liberal to be the nominee and will not vote for him. The Arlington camp doesn't know whether Giuliani will be elected but worries -- for the sake of its organizations' bottom lines -- how a social liberal would affect the power and influence of organized conservative interests. If the election were held tomorrow, Giuliani would win. He doesn't have McCain's organizational strength, money, or endorsements, but he has a solid and growing lead in national polls. And so far, he's repelled some fairly devastating attacks (like the notion that he does not speak to his son).
Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $3 million. Fundraising ranking: 3.
2. John McCain Last Ranking: 1
Giuliani's rise does not reflect any diminished capacity on Sen. McCain's part. He still has the biggest and best campaign, the most talented operatives, a great stump manner (check out those second day bus tour clips) and the best chance to survive the gauntlet laid down by the Republican base. Still, early polls don't mean too much, but it's hard for us to call McCain the front-runner any longer when 80 percent of the voting base routinely chooses someone else. Real skepticism is growing among the media too. Do not for a moment believe we are downgrading the chances of McCain's surviving, recovering, and ultimately thriving. But we can't ignore the voices of an already-fairly engaged electorate. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 2. Almanac Profile
3. Mitt Romney
Romney's Florida gaffe underscores his political problems. It's not that Romney isn't smart -- he is. It's not that he isn't a gifted politician -- he is. It's not that his advisers aren't smart -- they are. But if Romney is a natural presidential type, he doesn't seem to be a natural politician. He -- and the guy does write a lot of his own speeches -- overthinks. He tries to be someone, to say something, to leave a political impression, rather than simply showing up and talking to his audience, not at them. Alienating South Florida Cuban-American Republicans has real electoral consequences. Winning candidates cannot, and mostly do not -- make these mistakes. Fundraising projection: $25 million, +/- $5 million. Fundraising ranking: 1. Remember, Romney has the bigger initial "friends of" Rolodex, including Bainiacs, Bostonians, Utahns and fellow Mormons. Oh, and don't forget his own bank account.
... Sometimes in the same news cycle. Political fame may be fleeting, but there's always opportunity to score some style points. Check it out!
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Sen. Barack Obama "is set to endorse the always controversial" 3rd Ward Chicago Ald. Dorothy Tillman (D) in her runoff against Pat Dowell (I).
"Almost every black political, religious and civil rights leader in the city is lending support to Tillman" -- except Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D). Jackson "tried to downplay the fact that this is the first time he and Obama have ever opposed each other in a local race."
Jackson says he understands why Sen. Obama would back Tillman. The alderman was one of Obama's earliest supporters in his U.S. Senate bid. But others are wondering how Obama's decision to back such a die-hard proponent of slavery reparations will play in Iowa and New Hampshire. They may have a point.
The AP is reporting that former candidate and ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack will endorse Hillary Clinton in IA on 3/26. The campaign also issued a press released saying Clinton would make a "major announcement" at a TBA location in Des Moines and would be "joined by special guests."
Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton, in a major political coup, captured the endorsement of former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who recently abandoned his own presidential bid, officials told The Associated Press on Friday.
Vilsack and his wife, Christie, planned to make the endorsement on Monday when the New York senator will be in the state, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because of the planned formal statement next week.
Clinton spokesman Mark Daley would not confirm Vilsack's endorsement, but did say the campaign had a major announcement planned for Monday in Des Moines.
To be clear, the sponsoring organization was not the state's official College Republican group.
In fact, Vic Bailey, Jr. the chairman of the official, duly certified and authorized state college Republican group in SC, is a paid field rep for the McCain campaign.
A McCain ally calls the SC Colleagiate Republican Organization a "rump group" for Romney supporters who split away from the formal College GOP organization. But why did State Sen. John Courson, a McCain endorser, speak at their convention? We're told he didn't know enough about the group. [MARC AMBINDER]
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's directror of strategy sent top supporters a memo 3/22 crowing about a "notable" growth in support for Giuliani since he declared on 2/5.
Before February, 5th, we were leading in major media polls by an average of 5-points. Since February, 5th our lead has grown to an average of nearly 20-points.
Other key bullet points:
Mayor Giuliani has a wider lead among social conservatives than he does among Republicans in general. Social conservatives already know who Rudy Giuliani is. In fact, more than 70% say they know “some or a lot” about him – these numbers are almost identical or better than other candidates in the race.
Social conservatives are already more likely than Republicans in general to know the Mayor’s positions on key issues. Social conservatives are tuned in to the campaign and they like what they see in Mayor Giuliani.
We've seen some equivocal polling. But our sense is that what Seaborn claim is broadly correct. Giuliani's opponents now say that the mayor's character issues will soften him up and that his cultural liberalism will be the coup de grace. Read the entire memo after the jump.
The AFL-CIO, angry about Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter's veto of a pro-union bill, may recommend that the Democratic Party move its 2008 convention from Denver. The bill would have made it easier to set up all-union workplaces. "The attention of the American people will be focused on Denver and the state of Colorado as they prepare to host the 2008 Democratic National Convention," the labor federation's executive council said in a resolution passed during their winter meeting in Las Vegas. "Union members and working people will make up more than a quarter of the delegates to the Denver convention.
It's true that all of the unions are very upset with Ritter -- but some feel that there are ways, other than threatening to move the convention, to deal with Ritter and the situation in Colorado. Labor invested a great deal into electing Ritter. Many unions feel that he reneged on an explicit campaign promise and that that has to be dealt with. But some feel this threat affects not just Ritter but the Democrats in the legislature who supported labor and union members in the state. As one labor operative put it, "look the burden is on Ritter. He needs to take this as a serious wake-up call that he has big problems with labor and that he needs to come to the table prepared "
Privately, senior labor officials have re-assured Denver's host committee that it shouldn't read too much into the AFl-CIO's collective expression of disappointment. [MARC AMBINDER]
We've learned that Rudy Giuliani plans to appear, soonish, on CBN's The David Brody Show. Ok, CBN doesn't have the David Brody show, but.. honestly, aside from the faith healing, he's the best thing to happen to the 700 Club in a while.
As we kind of knew they would, the Nevada GOP now wants to hold their caucus on Jan. 19 along with the Dems. It makes sense: it won't cost them much, and it'll give them a much higher profile, and the only Nevada Republicans who really care about delegates are... the potential delegeates themselves. Off the top of our heads, I'd say McCain and Romney have an edge in NV.
Kudos to the USA Today and a few other newspapers for daring to report that not everyone was comfortable watching Sen. Edwards promise to continue his campaign in spite of his wife's serious cancer relapse.
Ben Smith is a friend and we admire his guts, honesty and stick-to-itiveness. Don't let yesterday's mistake distract you from honestly appraising his body of work, which is almost entirely top-notch and which makes him one of the best political reporters in the business. [MARC AMBINDER]
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
On The Download asked 22 of some of the best Democratic Internet strategists what they thought of the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates' Web sites. Check the Republican Internet Insiders Poll here.
Though this survey is not at all scientific, here's a quick note on methodology: Of the 22 strategists polled, 15 were unaffiliated and 7 worked for a WH '08 campaigns in some capacity. Therefore, only answers from unaffiliated Internet Insiders were counted in the first question. Also, respondants were polled on Rudy Giuliani's former Web site design -- not the new Web site that launched this week.
Question 1: Which Democratic WH '08 candidate has the most effective Web site? BarackObama.com -- 5 votes:
"Obama's social network is the bomb... Obama's presentation is wired and Hillary's is very tired."
"Obama has effectively used video to portray himself as a transformational candidate. The social networking aspect of his site captures one of the things Howard Dean used so effectively: giving grass roots and first time organizers a sense over ownership over aspects of the campaign."
"Most effective Democratic site is Obama – best campaign logo in Presidential history, plenty of opportunities to engage visitors and has video available on homepage."
"Obama's website projects momentum. Hillary's projects 'establishment.'"
JohnEdwards.com -- 5 votes:
"Edwards is the only candidate website that's focused outwards in their content creation, and not just creating an walled garden for supporters."
"Win or lose, most candidates fold their websites after each election cycle. After his loss, Edwards intelligently kept a robust site up, became the first to have regular video and audio conversations, and the first to embrace mobile communication. Hillary has the most sophisticated tools and Obama and Richardson have great sites, but Edwards still has the edge."
"All the candidate sites look the same, and all carry similar functionality. Edwards has fun tools: Twitter is oh-so-hot right now, and he's got a Mac OS X widget (even if it's ugly)."
HillaryClinton.com -- 2 votes:
"There were several sites with advanced advocacy and social networking capabilities. Clinton has the edge due to its usability and not assuming everyone understands online social networking. Also has a strong mix of action and issue information."
"Clinton's web site has most tools, best interface, and best navigation to easily find relevant information about the candidate. Some weakness on video and multimedia, but a site built for the long haul."
RichardsonForPresident.com -- 1 vote:
"It's relevant, not too busy, and gives easy access to essential online tools and information. The fully integrated social networking aspects of sites like Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's -- my close second and third choices -- are great. But at this early stage, it's most important that a campaign site is simple, informative, inviting, and aesthetically pleasing. That's why I give the edge to Richardson."
JoeBiden.com, ChrisDodd.com, Gravel2008.us, Kucinich.us, or other -- 2 votes :
"While Obama's web team seems to have gotten the most bang for their buck since launching; Edwards website has the most potential to be interactive and to contribute something new and different - they embrace an model that is outside the box of traditional online campaigns and it shows, they just haven't done much to take advantage of that yet. Clinton's is clearly the best at message control on her site, and her tools are super slick, but lack the fun of Edwards and Obama."
With the Iowa caucuses less than a year away, an unscientific survey of Iowa county chairs from both parties shows few who have committed to a presidential candidate. Of the 82 Democratic and Republican county chairs who responded to the IowaPolitics.com survey, just 10 said they were already committed to a candidate.
Among those who said they were not yet committed, Democrats were leaning toward supporting John Edwards and Barack Obama. Among undecided Republicans, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee were the top choices.
This proves he's still popular with the young 'uns.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney won the SC Colleagiate Republican Organization's straw poll yesterday. Ironically, the SCCRO's convention this year was keynoted by State Sen. John Courson, a major backer of Sen. John McCain's. No word on whether -- or how much -- Romney's campaign paid to move the vote here.
Pundits went into full analytical mode after the John and Elizabeth Edwards' announcement:
Des Moines Register's Yepsen: "This was all a plus for John Edwards politically. When he canceled his trip here on Tuesday to deal with this, the political community in this state really held its breath because John Edwards and Elizabeth Edwards have been all over this state, many Democrats here know them. Even people who didn't support him, they were just worried about what this meant. And so, it was sad news, but he handled it with grace, she handled it with courage. ... I think this will go down as one of the defining moments of the 2008 campaign. ... He was already the front-runner in Iowa and I see nothing today that changes that" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/22).
Paul Begala: "He's almost spent enough time in Iowa to pay property taxes there" ("AC 360," 3/22).
FNC's Cameron: "Democrats across the spectrum expect a sympathy surge for the ailing spouse, but the Edwards campaign knows itself full well, it will take much more than that to win the Democratic nomination" ("Special Report," 3/22).
CNN's Schneider: "Edwards has been criticized in the past as a rich populist who lives in a mansion. But it's going to be very hard for anyone to portray him as isolated from the real-life problems that ordinary people face" ("Situation Room," 3/22).
FNC's Kondracke: "There will be kind of a glow around them, I mean, there's a sense of poignancy, that's the best word I can think of. I would think that the one other political outcome of this is that there's going to be renewed attention to the two other cancer survivors here, John McCain, who had skin cancer and Rudy Giuliani, who had prostate cancer" ("Special Report," 3/22).
Tommy Thompson: "John Edwards knows what has to be done because he's been through it already. And this is just a reoccurrence. What you have to do is be as supportive as you possibly can be and give your wife the kind of attention that she badly needs, because she is going through not only turmoil, but tremendous emotional highs and lows. And she has got to be coping with this every single moment that she's awake. And she wants, of course, to survive, and we all do. And that is why the husband has really got to reach out and be as supportive as he possibly can be. And, really, you know, it's difficult but he has to reach out more than ever before to make sure that his wife knows that he is there, loves her, supports her and will continue to do so no matter what happens" ("LKL," CNN, 3/22). [EMILY GOODIN]
Nevada's Jon Ralston sends out this FLASH to his readers:
Sources say today that movement behind the scenes has made it more likely the Republicans will hold their presidential caucus on Jan. 19 -- the same day as the Democratic Party's. The deal is not quite consummated but insiders say key players -- elected officials included -- have agreed to pay the penalty meted out by the Republican National Committee -- the loss of delegates and national convention seats if the date is moved from Feb. 7. This comes on the eve of a Democratic candidates forum on health care, so the GOP's caucus envy may well be satisfied soon.
The Rudy Giuliani camp quietly launched a revamped website today that is more complete than what it offered previously, but still a shell of what it should be. Presumably the soft launch means that the camp has more to roll out in the near future. But first impressions show positive features, including the first GOP semblance of a blog and site widgets.
The new site has much more information than his previous site, including an exclusive welcome video in which Giuliani says the site will be used as to “talk directly to you.” The word “leadership” pops up several times as does Reagan’s “City Upon a Hill” theme.
In addition to the welcome video, the front page includes the requisite e-mail signup and donation links, a flowery quote from George Will is featured along with a photo album (with the broken link) and a Facebook-esque “Live Feed” that links to press releases and news stories. [RIKI PARIKH]
1. John Edwards' crusade is larger than John Edwards. And what a way to show that to the world. Some of Edwards's opponents are grumbling, quietly, that the candidate orchestrated this event for maximum publicity and hang time.
2. On the other hand, a Democratic pollster wondered to us whether middle America might be creeped out that Edwards wouldn't suspend his campaign to go tend to his wife. The Edwardses and their staff might be willing to promote the idea of a movement candidacy, but it's by no means clear that Democratic primary voters are ready to buy it, just yet.
3. Elizabeth Edwards is a beloved, national figure. Is any candidate's wife a better asset?
Said Tony Snow: "[As] somebody who has been through this, Elizabeth Edwards is setting a powerful example for a lot of people, and a good and positive one. She has been on top of diagnosis and follow-up. When you have cancer it's very important to keep checking. She's being aggressive. She's living an active life. And a positive attitude, prayers, and people you love are always a very good addition to any kind of medicine you have. So for Elizabeth Edwards, good going; our prayers are with you.
4. As Chris Cillizza astutely points out, it's going to be very hard for any presidential candidate to cast negative aspersions on Sen. Edwards for a while. And the press will treat him with kit gloves. Check out, for example, our Hotline Spotlight:
A Greater Battle
The struggle John and Elizabeth Edwards face is far tougher than any WH campaign. But they'll face it, together, and with a base of support greater than they've ever known.
-- Throughout early WH '08, Edwards has operated within his own context. He's a top-tier Dem but still, for better or worse, exists apart from Obama and Clinton. They announced via their websites. He traveled to New Orleans to repair Katrina-ravaged homes. While they've been wracked for weeks by insider squabbles and tugs-of-war, he has talked issues in early-vote states (Like, for example, energy policy 3/20 in IA).
-- Coverage today reinforces the distinction. Obama vs. Clinton reports dwelled on Philip de Vellis, while cable nets blanketed air w/pics of the Edwards family, paired with comments likes ABC News' Sawyer ("Together they have weathered so much joy and heartbreak") and CNN's pro-HRC Carville ("My heart goes out to him").
-- John and Elizabeth Edwards have been running for pres. longer than anyone in the '08 field, arguably since he withdrew from the '04 race in 3/04. We hope they'll remain active participants of a campaign that's been clearly influenced by their unique voices. (#11)
5. Through 3/31, would any donor possibly say no to the Edwardses?
“I spoke with Elizabeth Edwards today and shared my heartfelt belief that she serves as an inspiration to the entire nation. Both Cindy and I wish John and Elizabeth the very best, and our thoughts and prayers are with them.”
In the GOP WH field, conservatives are represented by two unannounced but unexpectedly favorable candidates. These are their stories.
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Whitehouse talks about his agenda, his impression of Senate GOPers and the hallowed hazing rituals of the country's most exclusive club. Here's a preview:
Q: What is your No. 1 goal and legislative priority for Rhode Island in the 110th Congress?
Whitehouse: "I think, like everyone else, it's finding a responsible way home from Iraq."
Rocky Anderson the a pro-gay marriage, pro-choice, Bush-impeaching results-oriented mayor of Salt Lake City Utah. He was also, circa 2003, a close friend of Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Mr. Romney endorsed Anderson's election that year, and Romney's spokesman explained to a newspaper reporter that sometimes, personal friendship trumped political parties. The two became friends during the '02 Olympics.
Romney even appeared in a television advertisement for Anderson. Anderson, in 2002, had used his self-described "liberal Democrat" street cred to cut an endorsement spot for Romney's Massachusetts gubernatorial bid.
Said Romney in his ad: "In my view, Salt Lake City is a better place because of Rocky."
Romney spokesman Kevin Madden e-mailed us this response: ""Mayor Anderson and Governor Romney worked together during his tenure as head of the very successful Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002. Mayor Anderson was a fan of Governor Romney's executive experience and ability, and the governor appreciated his support in making the Olympic Games a success."
“Obviously we strongly disagree with Mayor Anderson's opinions on President Bush. His opinions and beliefs are his own and not shared by the governor."
Ed McElroy, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, hosted a dinner last night at Finn and Porter's for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Guests included ubiquitous International Assoc. of Firefighters Pres. Harold Schaitberger, Jimmy Williams, the president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, Ed Hill of the electrical workers, Larry Cohen from CWA, and the presidents of the Air Traffic Controllers, Airline Pilots and Postal Workers' unions.
Reports were that she was "terrific," according to an attendee. Ex-Sen. John Edwards dined with the group last week. Sen. Barack Obama's visit is TBD.
To qualify an earlier post's contention that Sen. Barack Obama recieves less scrutiny from the press: it's not the level of scrutiny so much as it is the press corps' willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt when said scrutiny produces an errant or discordant thread.
Reserve the circumstances of de Vellis-gate just a bit. Let's say an employee at a major Bush vendor or a major Clinton vendor was caught engineering a stunt like this. The presumption of innocence would be gone. The press would treat the matter as it were a real scandal.
Neither campaign would get the benefit of the doubt. To Obama's credit, in this situation, he does.
John McCain's camp has unveiled a new team of "Young Professionals 4 McCain," in the spirit of the "Mavericks" of the Bush-Cheney '04 camp. The organization currently has representation in eight states and will continue to expand nationwide. The members of the DC Metro "Young Professionals 4 McCain" played a central role at a DC fundraiser 3/21 with the senator and Cindy McCain at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel.
DC's "Young Professional's 4 McCain" include:
Atty Brian Brooks
GOP atty Eric Burgeson
Ex-Bush staffer Christine Burgeson
Atty Kirsten Chadwick
Atty Mike Chappell
Lobbyist Doug Davenport
Atty Ashley Davis
Lobbyist Missy Edwards Robert Fisher
Lobbyist Anne Gavin Sam Gedulding Randall Gerard
Ex-Press Sec. to VP Cheney Juleanna Glover Weiss
Ex-Aide to Sen. Trent Lott John Green
Lobbyist Kristen Gullott
Lobbyist Kate Hull
Lobbyist Aleix Jarvis Alex Johnson Matt Keelen John Kelliher
Consultant Alison McSlarrow
Mike Meece
Ex-RGA finance dir Susan Nelson
Lobbyist Elise Pickering Tim Powers
Lobbyist Sloan Rappaport
Atty Hans Rickhoff Peter Sobich
Lobbyist Dave Vennett Brad Wine
Ex-Special Asst. to Pres. Bush Kirk Blalock
There were two main political stories on the tube last night: the scandal over the fired U.S. attys and Al Gore's return to Capital Hill:
CNN's Malveaux, on the conflict between Congress and the admin: "We're not yet at DEFCON 1" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 3/21).
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY): "The president says he wants to get to the truth. Well, then what's wrong with an oath and what's wrong with transcripts" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/21).
More Schumer: "There are enough disgruntled people in the Justice Department in particular, because they really resented what happened here, that the information is going to come out. It will either come out drip, drip, drip, or it'll come out all at once, we'll get to the bottom of it in a complete way, and solve the problem and move on. It would be much better for the White House itself, as well as the Justice Department and the country, if they let it all come out at once" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/21).
FNC's O'Reilly, in his "Talking Points" memo: "I was happy when President Bush said that Karl Rove and others would talk in front of Leahy's committee. If they lie to that committee, they can be prosecuted. So this is not some coffee klatch. Now Leahy should be happy as well if he's really sincere about wanting to know what happened" ("O'Reilly Factor," 3/21).
AL GORE PART DEUX
MSNBC's Shuster, on Gore's return: "It was of course great political theater. ... And in part because, in addition to sort of the battles with Inhofe, there was Al Gore with Joe Lieberman, his former running mate. Joe Lieberman yukked it up with Gore and they reminisced and talked about what it was like back in 2000. And then there was Hillary Clinton and there is no sort of secret in Washington that Hillary Clinton and Al Gore don't like each other very much. And it was noteworthy, Chris, that Hillary Clinton was all business. She sort of said welcome to the vice president" ("Hardball," 3/21).
Newsweek's Fineman: "If Inhofe is the best arguer that they can come up with for their side, Al Gore is in even better shape politically than he even realizes" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/21).
CNN's Crowley: "Red carpet nights vs. snowy New Hampshire days, making lots of money vs. having to raise it -- the new Al Gore may prefer the new haunts" ("AC 360," 3/21). [EMILY GOODIN]
John Edwards disclosed that his wife, Elizabeth, had breast cancer the day after he lost the vice presidency in the 2004 election. Now his political future may hinge on her health.
The couple planned a 12 p.m. ET news conference in Chapel Hill, N.C., to discuss their plans, one day after visiting doctors who are monitoring Mrs. Edwards' recovery from the cancer.
Campaign officials refused to answer any questions about what the couple learned at the doctor's appointment or how it might affect Edwards' second presidential bid. Edwards had cut short a trip to Iowa to be with his wife but still attended a barbecue fundraiser Wednesday evening in Chapel Hill, their hometown.
What could this press conference be about? A few ideas:
1. Elizabeth Edwards' cancer has returned, and so John Edwards is dropping out of the race.
2. Elizabeth Edwards' cancer has returned, and so John Edwards is putting his WH '08 race on hold.
3. Elizabeth Edwards' cancer has returned, and so she is leaving the campaign in her role as her husbands political adviser.
The Obama campaign and its employees had no knowledge and had nothing to do with the creation of the ad. We were notified this evening by a vendor of ours, Blue State Digital, that an employee of the company had been involved in the making of this ad. Blue State Digital has separated ties with this individual and we have been assured he did no work on our campaign’s account.
A Blue State Digital managing partner also responded:
Statement from Thomas Gensemer, Managing Director, Blue State Digital
This afternoon, an employee at our firm, Phillip de Vellis, received a call from Arianna Huffington of "The Huffington Post" regarding the "1984" video currently circulating online. Initially, de Vellis refused to respond to her requests. He has since acknowledged to Blue State Digital that he was the creator of the video. Pursuant to company policy regarding outside political work or commentary on behalf of our clients or otherwise, Mr. de Vellis has been terminated from Blue State Digital effective immediately. Blue State Digital is under contract with the Obama Campaign for technology pursuits including software development and hosting. Additionally, one of our founding partners is on leave from the company to work directly for the campaign at headquarters. However, Blue State Digital is not currently engaged in any relationship with the Obama Campaign for creative or non-technical services. Mr. de Vellis created this video on his own time. It was done without the knowledge of management, and was in no way tied to his work at the firm or our formal engagement [on technology pursuits] with the Obama campaign. I have spoken with David Plouffe, Sen. Obama's campaign manager, to inform him of this action and am appreciative of his understanding and ongoing support of our work. We wish Mr. de Vellis well in his future endeavors.
So -- they fired the guy for creating a creative wonderpiece.
The Politics: This is not a sign of the apocalypse for Sen. Obama's campaign. It weakens, in a very public way, one of the nagging strategic problems of his campaign, which is best summed up by this question: How can a traditional (talented) campaign apparatus run a non-traditional campaign? And -- in this media world of distractions and freelancers and 24/7 yadda yadda, how can an "authentic" candidate keep his "authentic" identity?
The revelation is nonetheless deeply embarassing for Obama's campaign, so much so that said embarassment tends to undercut the conspiracy theory that the video and its release were orchestrated by its senior managers. The "They Wouldn't Be That Stupid" standard applies.
Questions remain unanswered.
1. Did de Vellis tell no one at Blue State Digital, which built the interent architecture for Obama's campaign, of his video? Did any consultant currently working on Obama's campaign have any knowledge of the video's auteur's identity?
2. Did Obama's campaign ask its Internet consulting team about the video's origination? Were they mislead?
3. Clearly, enough people knew; Arianna Huffington found out about it. How?
4. Should Obama's campaign be held to a different (higher) standard for incidents like these, given Sen. Obama's preference for running a positive, uplifting and different campaign?
5. Does this "resolution" to the YouTube ad story mean that the ad will be repeated ad nauseum on network and cable television? In the short term, the fewer people see the video, the better for Sen. Clinton's campaign. In the long-term, the fall-out from this probably -- probably -- worth the short term pain.
6. Will this incident change any votes in Iowa? (Or New Hampshire?) -- Probably not. Will it prod the media to cover Sen. Obama more critically? Probably. [MARC AMBINDER]
Hillary Clinton, in a 3/18 energy speech: "I think America is ready to be asked to do something besides 'go shopping.'" And John Edwards, in a 3/20 energy speech: "The American people are ready for the president of the United States to ask them to do something other than go shopping."
The guests at last night's fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Clinton, each of them paying $1K, $2.3K or $4.K, were treated to a sparse spread of vegetables, breads and cheeses. Hillary even addressed the slim pickings in her speech, noting: "We run a tight ship. You may have noticed we don’t have dinner here tonight"
Still, she told the crowd she would make it worth their while, and wallets, if she's elected. Spotted among the breads and vegetables at the Marriott Wardman Park fundraiser last night: Eliot Engel (NY), Jerrold Nadler (NY), Sheila Jackson-Lee (TX), and Madeleine Albright.
Meanwhile, the following is a time-line of the night:
Terry McAuliffe introduced the Clintons at 8:11. At 8:13, grown men are reduced to adolescents at a Clay Aiken concert, as they eagerly hold up their camera phones. Bill Clinton begins his introduction of Hillary Clinton at 8:14. Hillary takes the mic at 8:25 and Bill exits the stage.
Hillary begins by thanking her supporters. At 8:32, health care needs to be fixed. At 8:33, a cell phone rings. By 8:35, education is key and by 8:38, the climate crisis really needs to be solved. It's 8:41 when a Code Pink woman starts screaming. It's also 8:41 when the Code Pink woman is dragged out immediately by four security guards. At 8:43, Iraq is briefly mentioned. At 8:45, there's a "call to service." Finally, at 8:46, there's a "God Bless" reference and sustained applause. At 9:15, 10,000 Maniac's "These are Days" plays for the 4th time. At 9:30, both Clintons are still working the crowd, when Engel is spotted again-- this time on the rope line trying to talk to the couple like everyone else. [NORA MCALVANAH]
To all candidates for public office in 2008 -- Advocate working on compliance with Kyoto and developing a new more aggressive treaty to begin in 2010 and make India, China and other countries a party of that treaty.
Tonights mega-fundraiser for the DCCC, held at the Virginia home of Dem super-donors Al and Claire Dwoskin, will net the party about $600K. Rep. Jim Moran, the host, will be joined by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and a host of committee chairs.
What's interesting to us is that the arranger of tonight's medley is Mame Reiley, a former senior adviser to ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner. She's just hung her own shingle -- The Reiley Group, and this is her first major event. That the DCCC hired her suggests that Reiley is still a major political force in Virginia.
From an e-mail sent by David Westin, the president of ABC News:
About a month ago, Mark Halperin came to me to say that he wanted more time to pursue writing – perhaps another book and possibly for a publication. We all know how valuable a member of our political reporting team Mark is, and he made it clear that he has an equally high opinion of ABC News and what we're trying to accomplish. So, we've worked out a new relationship with Mark that will transform him from our Political Director to our Political Analyst at least through the 2008 election. This will make it possible for us to continue to draw upon Mark's unparalleled political analysis and knowledge while at the same time giving him some new venues in which to use his talents.
As Political Director these past 10 years, Mark has groomed an entire generation of outstanding political reporters. I'm pleased to say that our new Political Director will be one of the best and brightest of them, our own David Chalian. David began his career at ABC News in 2003 after covering city and state politics at NY1.
At ABC News, David has distinguished himself and our news organization reporting on the California recall in 2003, the entire 2004 presidential cycle from Iowa to election night, and the 2006 midterms. David is deeply involved in every aspect of our political coverage and planning for 2008. Please join me in congratulating Mark and David.
Hold on. I'm not saying that I know Mr. Gore will formally enter the presidential race. Matter of fact, I doubt it. But that's a technicality. If the Democratic primary field moves when he talks -- and they do -- then why pretend that he's not already influencing the process? He's in until he's out.
Gore has no formal power over the candidates running for Democratic presidential nomination, but his informal power -- his ability to power its storylines -- is tremendous. The moment he says he's 100% out and will under no circumstances run for president -- then he'll have no power. Nothing formal -- no imperium.
Gore has given the verb "plan" a strenuous and deliberate work out. He is an intelligent, politically savvy guy. . He knows very well what "plan" or "plans" -- as in "I have no plan to run again" sounds like to other candidates. He very much enjoys the second order benefits that such speculation provide for his first order concern, which is, of course, global warming.
The theory, here, is that Gore won't run, and that he won't say he won't run because if he does, he'll have fewer resources to (a) fight global warming (b) be seen as the public spokesman for the forces arrayed against global climate change (c) see his policy speeches make a difference (d) maintain his identity as the hyung -- the respected older brother -- of the Democratic Party.
The crush of reporters on Capitol Hill today are also dutifully playing their parts. They'll point out how the hunger for Al Gore reflects a lack of enthusiasm over Hillary Clinton (not really true, but it is hard to disprove empirically), that Gore would bring both excitement and substance to the Democratic ticket (take that, Obama), that Gore remains a polarizing figure (which is a positive attribute to some Democratic primary voters), that Gore could wait several months before he announces (true), that Gore has re-engineered his public image after the '00 election (true), that Gore is far more popular among regular Americans than the man he beat and lost to seven years ago... etc.
Most of Gore's friends do not believe he will run. They say that he has no appetite for the crap that real candidates withstand. He's been there and really doesn't want to do that again.
A close Gore friend tells me that he and Tipper Gore were addled by the national press's obsession with his large house and its energy use.
Gore exclaimed to this friend :"Why would I want to go back to that?"
There is no evidence whatsoever that Gore is asking fundraisers to keep their pockets full for him. He stays in touch with old friends -- like State Sen. Lou D'Allesandro in New Hampshire -- but they don't chat about politics, and D'Allesandro may soon endorse someone else. Several senior Gore aides from his campaigns and White House staff have asked him directly whether they should wait for him. Gore says no.
All this really tells me is that if Gore runs, it'll be a very untraditional campaign. [MARC AMBINDER]
Former Vice President Al Gore is testifying at this moment before Congressman Roscoe Bartlett and other Members of Congress at a Joint Hearing of the House Committee on Science and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment and the Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Energy & Air Quality.
"....Gore agreed with Congressman Roscoe Bartlett that climate change represents perhaps the world's biggest market failure.
Asked if he's officially announcing: "That's going to be several more weeks. But it's really looking good. I've been spending a lot of time in Iowa, as you know. I've been there more than any other candidate and I'm going to see the individuals that go to the caucus. And I've been receiving tremendous support."
More: "And who can win Iowa and who's the closest one to Iowa? Who's spending the time there? Who's organizing the grassroots and who's got the best campaign team going? And I really have great political operatives in Iowa. I feel very strong and very positive about my chances."
Thompson said his official announcement would be in WI and in IA (CNN, 3/20).
Tom Tancredo was on "Tucker":
On AG Gonzales: "I think he has been derelict in his duty. I think he has not done what we should expect of a chief law enforcement officer of the land. He is not going after the people. He has refused to enforce the law especially with regard to immigration issues" (MSNBC, 3/20).
Mike Gravel was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":
On not being invited to the CNN-NH debate: "You're very courageous to bring me on the show, because in New Hampshire, CNN, the Union-Leader ... and the Hearst News TV station have said that I don't meet some secret criteria to be on the show."
More: "Not your political unit, but CNN was party to this with these other two" (CNN, 3/20).
BUSH MAKES HIS STAND
And there was plenty of reax to Pres. Bush's show of support to Gonzales:
NBC's Mitchell: "It's Texas loyalty. He's his guy. And I think they also decided, risk-benefit, that there was more to risk by putting him up there and by getting rid of him. But I do think this White House was divided. You cannot misread the signals coming from Tony Snow and others in the White House as recently as yesterday. So there were those in the White House who wanted to let him go, but obviously, the president has now made his decision" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/20).
CNN's Roberts: "It was tough language, after a week in which Democrats beat the stuffing out of the administration over the U.S. attorney firings" ("AC 360," 3/20).
CNN's Malveaux: "Essentially what we heard from the president in public is lay off my guy. I'm the one who can save him, and that's exactly what I'm doing here" ("Situation Room," 3/20).
Newsweek's Alter, asked if Bush's praise for Gonzales is the "kiss of death": "It certainly was with Don Rumsfeld. ... The difference in this case, though ... is that there is history between Bush and Gonzales. And remember that it was Gonzales who saved Bush's career when he was called for jury duty as governor of Texas. Gonzales used a technicality to avoid public disclosure of Bush's arrest for drunk driving" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/20).
CNN's Roberts, to Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT): "President Bush insisted today that nothing improper was done here. Do you not take him at his word?"
Leahy: "President Bush insisted that there's weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, too."
Roberts: "So, you're not taking him at his word?"
Leahy: "I'm not saying that. I don't think the president is fully aware of all these things that have gone on. He wasn't on the weapons of mass destruction. I doubt if he is on this. And he has got a lot of things on his plate."
More Leahy: "They have offered to have these people, have Karl Rove or Harriet Miers or others, come up here and give us private briefings, off-the- record briefings, no transcripts, to a handful of senators. I have had those kind of briefings. And, usually, two days after we have had them, we pick up the paper and find a whole lot of things that were never told to us. For the sake of the American people, I want these people to come before the Senate Judiciary Committee. There's both Republicans and Democrats who can ask them questions. But I want them under oath" ("AC 360," CNN, 3/20). [EMILY GOODIN]
After running to '06 victory on the Iraq war, why can't the Dems get any traction in DC? Get off the Speaker's lawn and check it out!
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Gov. Mark Sanford's (R-SC) office sent out a release this afternoon announcing "plans to invite Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, their spouses and their families" to attend a bike ride and 5K walk as part of the gov's "2007 Family Fitness Challenge" on 5/5 in Aiken.
Sanford, in the release: "Fitness and healthy living are not partisan issues, and as a nation and a state far too many of us don't eat the right things and don't get enough exercise. Over the coming months, South Carolina is going to be at the center of the political universe, and I think that while the nation's eyes are turned our way it provides us an incredibly important opportunity for getting the word out about the need for healthier lifestyles."
Obama assumed Iraq had WMDs. But he didn't think the administration made the case for them.
A distinction without a difference? Or evidence of political calculation?
In other words -- if the point of going to war was to prevent Saddam Hussein from using his WMDs and Obama assumed that Hussein did, indeed possess them, then why would it necessarily matter whether the administration had made the case for them or not?
Obama implies that had the administration made the case for war, he might have changed his mind. The principle here is: If you think SH has the weapons, then you go to war. If he doesn't or you're not sure, then you don't. The question does not depend on whether the "case" for war is made. It hinges on whether WMDs actually exist, right?
Now -- maybe you don't think that WMD possession is a sufficient condition to wage war. Or that you might have gone to war but didn't think the administration deserved its use-of-force authorization from Congress. But then -- say so.
Or are we reading too much into this? After all, Obama got the major question "right" -- and right from the start.
Normally, the addition of a single name to a roster of 77 fundraisers wouldn't be noticed, but this is different: Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney has won the support of one of the most high profile, influential entrepreneurs in all of Florida -- a major GOP fundraiser to boot. This get will earn him some positive Sunshine State press. H. Wayne Huizenga is #153 on the list of Forbes's 400 richest Americans. His nickname in South Florida: "King Midas."
H. Wayne Huizenga Is The Creator Of Several Corporations, Including Three Fortune 500 Companies – Waste Management Inc, Blockbuster Video And AutoNation. He is the owner of the Miami Dolphins and, with the franchising of the Florida Marlins and Florida Panthers, was the driving force behind the introduction of baseball and hockey to South Florida. Huizenga is a renowned philanthropist whose beneficiaries include Nova Southeastern University where the business school carries his name.
There is no loved lost between the Club for Growth and Sen. John McCain. McCain said he has little in common with the Club and accused them of directly contributing to the Republicans' loss of the Senate in '06.
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has agreed to participate in a third Republican primary debate. He'll attend the May 15 forum in Columbia, SC hosted by Fox News, the network that routinely chyrons him as "America's Mayor."
Giuliani had previously agreed to attend the 5/3 debate at the Ronald Reagan library near Los Angeles. He's also decided to attend CNN's rescheduled New Hampshire debate in early June. [MARC AMBINDER]
On Iraq: "The precondition for any continuing involvement by the United States in Iraq has to be a willingness on the part of Iraqi leadership and the heads of various Iraqi factions to come together and want to make Iraqi work as a unified country."
On Gen. Peter Pace's comments: "I don't think that homosexuals are immoral any more than I think heterosexuals are immoral. I think that people are people and to categorize one group of folks based on their sexual orientation that way I think is wrong. I disagreed with General Pace. More importantly, I think, traditionally, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff tries to stick to military issues precisely because of the kind of hot water that he got himself into this time out. And hopefully he's learned his lesson."
On "don't ask, don't tell": "I think that is a policy that has to be absolutely re-examined."
On the HRC ad on the internet: "We knew nothing about it. I just saw it for the first time. And, you know, one of the things about the Internet is that people generate all kinds of stuff. In some ways, it's the democratization of the campaign process. But it's not something that we had anything to do with or were aware of and that frankly, given what it looks like, we don't have the technical capacity to create something like that. It's pretty extraordinary."
On the primary calendar: "I think democracy would be better served if we spread out these primaries a little bit more so we could actively campaign state by state. I still think that Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, the four early states, are going to be, you know, very intense. There's going to be a lot of competition, a lot of eyes focused there. February 5th you could see primaries in half the country. And nobody can campaign in half the country. You don't even do that during a general election."
On AG Gonzales: "It's time for him to step down and for another attorney general who can exercise some independence to be put for the reminder of this president's term" (CNN, 3/19).
DNC Chair Howard Dean, asked why Dems can't agree on a war policy: "We do agree on a war policy. We believe we ought be out."
On the fired U.S. attys: "The year of accountability is here. Now that the American have elected us to make sure the president doesn't have a rubber stamp Republican Congress and doesn't get away with stuff like that anymore" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/19).
House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer: "We now see the president proposing a fourth surge. This is not the first. This is not a change in policy, the fourth surge. And whether or not it is successful, we hope it is, but what we are going to be saying in our legislation is, there need to be timelines and there need to be requirements for the safety of our troops and the equipping of our troops" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/19).
And from Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson, on Pres. Bush: "I think if impeachment were ever justified, this certainly is the time" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/19). [EMILY GOODIN]
The frontrunners will be saturating the airwaves come Tsunami Tuesday -- will everyone else get washed out to sea? Come on in, the water's fine...
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Sen. Hillary Clinton has tapped Bob Nash, a former Clinton administration official and currently the president of a pioneering community development bank, to be one of several deputy campaign managers.
It's unclear what Nash's portfolio will be. He's been informally helping the campaign contact and massage the egos of prominent African American political leaders, so he might manage the campaign's outreach to allies or perhaps its political operation.
Nash is the vice chair of ShoreBank Corp, which bills itself as the "country's first and largest community development bank." In the Clinton administration, he served as director for presidential personnel and prior to that, undersecretary of Agriculture. An Arkansan, Nash was a top aide to Gov. Bill Clinton in the 1980s.
A former Republican official in New Hampshire is making one last attempt to prevent Ray Buckley from becoming chairman of the state Democratic Party.
The Hail Mary comes in the form of a provocative, tasteless YouTube production that includes context-free snippets of Buckley's home movies from more than a decade ago. On the video, Buckley seems immature and silly.
Joe Kelly Levasseur, a cable access show host and Buckley enemy, has taken credit for the video.
On Saturday, Buckley e-mailed county and city chairs in New Hampshire, describing himself as a victim of "Manchester Republicans" and calling the video a highly misleading "attack." You can watch the video here; we do not endorse its content. Buckley notes in his letter that his former roommate, Rep. Steve Vaillancourt, tried unsuccessfully to have Buckley prosecuted for unspecified child pornography charges -- charges the state's attorney general found to be entirely without merit.
If Buckley was exonerated, and if the video is scurrilous and prurient, why is this still a story? Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) saw the video and decided to withdraw his support for Buckley's chairmanship bid. At the Merrimack County St. Patrick's day dinner on Saturday, Buckley and Hodes had what one source called an animated chat. As of last night, Hodes was still standing by his reservations. Buckley's letter follows the jump.
It's a vast, right-wing conspiracy all right -- which plots and players can go the distance, and who might get tossed under the bus? You heard it here first...
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John McCain is rolling out a souped-up Straight Talk Express, fully equipped with hi-tech gadgets and stainless-steel appliances. But the most notable accessory on board 3/15 in IA was someone he invited along for the ride: Tim Pawlenty.
-- As McCain struggles to recapture the magic of '00, the Straight Talk might ultimately travel a starkly different road in '08. Visibly older and facing a lukewarm reception from corners of a disillusioned GOP, he's showering attention on the MN gov in what could be an intriguing ploy: Limiting himself to one pres. term and offering up "VP Pawlenty," not himself, as the GOP's salvation.
-- National Review floated the one-term notion 3/15, noting it would separate him from the GOP pack and fit the "narrative arc" of his career, acting above self-interest. It would defuse the age issue and Pawlenty would lend much-needed, outside-the-Beltway cred. McCain fueled speculation 3/15 in IA, calling him the "leader of the new generation of the Republican Party."
-- Weighed down in '08 by his '00 arch-nemesis, against whom he once ran as the outsider, McCain needs to make himself, and the GOP, feel good again. Pawlenty might be his much-needed shot-in-the-arm.
An addendum to the DoJ files released by the House Judiciary Committee included the full resume of J. Timothy Griffin, the interim district attorney for the eastern district of Arkansas.
The merits of the entire affair aside -- and there are merits galore to certain parts of the investigation, it's hard to make the argument that Griffin is unqualified.
Mr. Griffin, 38, has plenty of political experience -- the type of stuff that gets John Conyers and Chuck Schumer to fret about political cronyism. But it's not as if Griffin has zero prosecutorial experience.
Take a look at a summary of Harry E. "Bud" Cummins' qualifications -- one that was prepared by the White House when they nominated him in 2001.
The President intends to nominate Harry E. Cummins, III to be United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Arkansas. Cummins is currently a Partner with Cummins & Associates in Little Rock, Arkansas and was Chief Legal Counsel for the Governor of Arkansas from 1997 to 1998. He was a clerk to the Chief Judge on the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Arkansas and clerk to the United States Magistrate Judge for the U.S. District Court in Arkansas. Cummins received a B.S.B.A in Finance and Real Estate from the University of Arkansas, and a J.D. from the University of Arkansas, School of Law.
Check out Griffin's legal qualifications:
1. He's a '94 grad of Tulane Law School and spent two years studying at Oxford in England
2. He spent a year at DoJ where he prosecuted, among other things, federal firearms cases and served as a point person on international trafficking investigations. He also appointed by Homeland Sec. Chertoff to prosecute cases in the eastern district of AR.
3. He was the senior investigative counsel for Dan Burton at the House Gov't Reform Cmte. Complain about Burton's politics, but since when is Congressional staff service a disqualifier?
4. He helped independent counsel David Barrett investigate Henry Cisneros.
5. He prosecuted cases as an Army JAG officer.
6. He's a decorated Army Reserve major.
7. He served in Iraq.
And yes, he was a close associate of Karl Rove's, was an RNC strategy master, worked in Florida for Bush after the '00 elections.
He's political, and call him a crony if you want, but he's certainly a qualified crony. [MARC AMBINDER]
With so much tumult on the Republican side, Democrats should be pleased that their field is starting to stabilize. The top tier of Clinton, Obama and Edwards seems secure, with Richardson and Dodd solidifying a strong second tier.
The "Draft Gore" stuff seems more of a media and blogosphere dream than a true movement among the Democratic elite. Gore would need key donors and activists to begin to sour on two of the top three candidates in order to truly fill a need. Right now, that doesn't appear to be the case.
As we did last week with the Republicans, we've added a current Iowa projection.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings. Chuck Todd is now the political director of NBC News. Marc Ambinder covers politics for the Hotline and other associated entities.
1. Hillary Clinton Last Ranking: 1 -- Clinton's team has struck a nice balance between staying on message and policy. And her firefighters speech showed some ability to do the dramatic re: 9/11. But it's hard to say whether the press will allow her the luxury of sticking to policy and message. In New Hampshire, her "invisible Americans" speech was rewarded with a day of cable coverage about her (alleged) self-comparison to J.F.K.
Fundraising Projection: $35 million +/- $5 million.
3. John Edwards -- Last Ranking: 4 - He's been building his organization, staying on message, and courting endorsements, but he remains in third place. Why? Here's an example. On Tuesday morning, Edwards released a statement calling for Alberto Gonzales to resign. On Tuesday night, ABC News e-mailed reporters a teaser saying that Hillary Clinton would appear on Wednesday morning's GMA and become the first candidate to call for Gonzales' resignation. Fundraising Projection: $15 million +/- $3 million. Iowa Ranking: 1. [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]
So why wouldn't Sen. John McCain respond to a question about whether Gen. Peter Pace is correct about the moral status of homosexuality?
After all, McCain told ABC News's George Stephanopoulos on November 19 last year that h'sexuality is neither a "defect" nor a"sin"
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: You threw your support behind Trent Lott this week to be Republican Whip. Do -- he has said that homosexuality is a sin. Is that what you think?
SEN. MCCAIN: I have never heard Trent Lott state that. But no, that's not what I --
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: It's not your position?
SEN. MCCAIN: No.
Yesterday, per Adam Nagourney's New York Times story:
On Thursday, even as he promised a stream of the candid comments that distinguished him in 2000 — “Anything, anything you want to talk about,” he said — he steered clear of offering opinions on two of the biggest issues on the political landscape this week. He declined to say whether he agreed with the assertion by Gen. Peter Pace, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that homosexuality is immoral, or whether he thought Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales should be ousted for his handling of the firing of federal prosecutors
The fired U.S. attys story continues to get a lot of airtime:
CNN's Malveaux: "The e-mail shows that Karl Rove raised the idea of firing all 93 U.S. attorneys nearly a month before the White House previously acknowledged" ("AC 360," 3/15).
Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "It's going to put enormous pressure on Karl Rove now to go before the Senate and testify, voluntarily. He's not going to want to do that. There may be a real fight over it" ("AC 360," 3/15).
NBC's P. Williams: "Congress doesn't seem to be in an interest to get immediate answers. They want to try to let this play out some. The next step will probably be more e-mails tomorrow from the Justice Department and then possibly some resolution tomorrow to the question of whether the White House will just freely turn documents over and freely allow access to people like Harriet Miers, the former counsel, and Karl Rove, the political adviser, or whether they'll exert executive privilege on some of this" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/15).
FNC's Goler: "The president says it is up to Gonzales to reassure lawmakers about the firings in closed-door testimony that's expected next week. The way Democrats see it, Gonzales will be trying to save his job, and they are in no mood to be reassured" ("Special Report," 3/15).
Newsweek's Fineman: "Gonzales doesn't have long for the attorney general's job, even though the White House would then face the very daunting task of finding somebody to replace him who could be confirmed by the Democratic Senate. That's probably the only thing keeping Alberto Gonzales in his job right now" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/15).
Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL), on Sununu calling for Gonzales to resign: "I think my good friend from New Hampshire is jumping the gun just a bit. I think that this is a difficult situation, and one that I feel personally, because I consider Alberto Gonzales a good friend. We served together in the president's administration."
More: "I can see how Harriet Miers would be an appropriate witness. I'm not so sure Karl Rove has much to do with this. That is, again, injecting politics into it. But I think all of those that are relevant to the investigation should certainly come and testify before the Congress" ("LKL," CNN, 3/15).
MIGHTY MITT
Mitt Romney was on "LKL" last night, as were Regis Philbin's doctors:
On his religion: "My religion's theology may be different than that of other faiths, but my religion is like other religions. It has its own unusual beliefs, for those who weren't born in the church and yet it has also taught me to be a better person than I would have been. Look, I'm not perfect. But I have a better marriage because of my faith. My kids, I think, are better kids because of their faith. And I'm, frankly, a better person than I would have been otherwise."
On Peter Pace's comments: "I think America is a compassionate nation and that we respect the right of other people to live their lives as they'd like to live them. I hope we can come together and be less divisive and bitter amongst our people. And so I'd like to show more tolerance and respect for others that live different lifestyles than we do. So I think the choice of words of the chief of staff were inappropriate for the public discourse. He can believe what he wants to. That's the great thing about America -- believe what you want. But in a governmental setting, the right way to go is to show more of an outpouring of tolerance. In my own view, I originally didn't think the don't ask, don't tell policy made a lot of sense. It seemed kind of silly to me. But you know what? It's worked. It's been in place now for over a decade. The military seems to be getting along pretty well with that rule. We're in the middle of a conflict right now. I wouldn't change it right now. Let's leave it the way it is."
Asked if AG Gonzales should resign: "We collect facts and interview witnesses before we convict. And we don't have that information yet. Of course, with regards to a U.S. attorney, that's an appointment made by the president at his or her pleasure. And that's a political appointment. That means the president has a right to choose people who share his political philosophy. On the other hand, we do not expect politicians to interfere with or meddle with investigations or stimulate investigations through political pressure. So which has happened here? Is it just a matter of carrying out political philosophy or was there political interference? And that's something I think time will tell."
Asked if he'd like Pres. Bush's endorsement: "Of course. I'd like everybody to endorse me. I want the whole nation to endorse me."
Asked if pols personal lives are relevant: "I look at the full character of the people who are considering running when I vote in the past. There are things I just dismiss as not being relevant. I look at the full character. I'm not going to give advice to the American people what they should look at. They're going to make that assessment on their own, decide what they think is the right person to lead the country."
Asked if he'd be VP: "I'm running for president. I don't want to be vice president. I want to be president."
Ann Romney also joined the interview. Asked if she disagrees with her husband on any issues: "I'm not going to put political wedges in there. There are some political issues that I don't agree with him" (CNN, 3/15).
HE'S BACK
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA) was in the "Situation Room" to talk about the CA primary.
Schwarzenegger: "It is very important that California is part of the mix in the decision-making of who should be our nominees, because up until now, by having the June primary, you know, by that time, before the voters ever had a chance to vote, it was already locked in who the candidate is. And I think that is unfair to California, because we are number one, the number one state in the union. So now we have changed it. We've signed a bill today that moves the June primary up to February. Now we will be part of the mix and we will be part of the decision-making."
Asked if he's thought of running for CA SEN: "No, absolutely not" (CNN, 3/15). [EMILY GOODIN]
Why are political headlines starting to read like bad pickup lines? We've got the exclusivo on all the repeat offenders. You know, in case you missed them.
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"“As the New York Times reported today, I do not agree with General Pace that homosexuality is immoral. Attempts to divide people like this have consumed too much of our politics over the past six years.”
Appearing on Bloomberg News, Sen. Hillary Clinton:
"Well I've heard from a number of my friends and I've certainly clarified with them any misunderstanding that anyone had, because I disagree with General Pace completely. I do not think homosexuality is immoral. But the point I was trying to make is that this policy of Don't Ask, Don't Tell is not working. I have been against it for many years because I think it does a grave injustice to patriotic Americans who want to serve their country. And so I have called for its repeal and I'd like to follow the lead of our allies like, Great Britain and Israel and let people who wish to serve their country be able to join and do so. And then let the uniform code of military justice determine if conduct is inappropriate or unbecoming. That's fine. That's what we do with everybody. But let's not be eliminating people because of who they are or who they love."
Vince Galko, formerly Sen. Rick Santorum's campaign manager, is slated to become ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's regional political director for Northeastern states. Galko is a former exec. dir of the PA GOP and was dep. exec. dir. of Pres. Bush's '04 re-election.
If Giuliani wins the nomination, New Jersey and Pennsylvania would suddenly be in play for Republicans, so the post of NE regional pol. dir is particularly important. It's a post Giuliani's campaign manager, Mike DuHaime, knows well. He was Pres. Bush's northeast regional political director in the '04 campaign. [MARC AMBINDER]
Following are WH '08 hopefuls ranked according to their highest-seeded home state team:
(1) Brownback: Kansas.
(1) Edwards: UNC. Other shots: Duke (6); Davidson (13).
(1) Kucinich: Ohio St. Other shots: Xavier (9); Miami (OH) 14.
(2) Hunter: UCLA. Other shots: Southern Cal (5); Stanford (11); Long Beach (12).
(2) F. Thompson: Memphis. Other shots: Tennessee (5); Vanderbilt (6); Belmont (15).
(2) T. Thompson: Wisconsin. Other shots: Marquette (8).
(3) Paul: Texas A&M. Other shots: Texas (4); Texas Tech (10); Texas A&M CC (15); North Texas (15).
(4) Gilmore: UVA. Other shots: Va Tech (5); VCU (11); and ODU (12).
(4) Obama: Southern Ill. Other shots: Illinois (12).
(7) Romney: BC. Other shots: BYU (8); Holy Cross (13); Weber State (15).
(8) McCain: Arizona.
(10) Gingrich: Ga Tech.
(10) Hagel: Creighton.
(12) Clark: Arkansas.
(12) Huckabee: Arkansas.
(13) Clinton: Albany (13). Other shots: Niagara (16).
(13) Giuliani: Albany (13). Other shots: Niagara (16).
(13) Pataki: Albany (13). Other shots: Niagara (16).
(13) Richardson: New Mexico St.
(16) Dodd: C. Conn. St.
Not playing: Biden, Tancredo, Gravel. Among top tier '08 candidates, only Romney will see his undergrad alma mater (BYU) play in the tourney. Gilmore's Hoos, Fred Thompson's Memphis Tigers and Tommy Thompson's Wisconsin Badgers also tip off in the big dance. Several candidates have advanced degrees from tourney teams, among them: Brownback (Kansas); Dodd (Louisville); Edwards (UNC); Paul (Duke). Fred Thompson is the only possible '08er with degrees from two different tourney schools (he got his J.D. from Vanderbilt). Final note: Nevada, UNLV and SC's Winthrop will probably gain some new fans...
Former New York Gov. George Pataki has told supporters he cannot guarantee he is going to run for president this cycle and has given his blessing for them to join other presidential campaigns.
A source close to the governor said his focus is currently on policy issues and not campaigning for the White House.
An e-mail sent out by Republican aide Don Stewart:
4 hours of debate to run concurrently on:
SJ Res 9 (Reid withdrawal/timeline bill)
S Res 107 (Murray, AKA “Gregg Lite”)
S Con Res 20 (Gregg funding resolution)
No amdts or motions in order to any of them
Use or yielding back of time, vote on each in above order
2 mins of debate equally divided between each vote
According to NE's Leavenworth Street blog, Bruning filed paperwork this a.m. to set up a Senate exploratory cmte. But he said he "will not challenge" Sen. Chuck Hagel if Hagel seeks re-election.
Bruning said he'll do "everything he can do," including fundraising, until Hagel decides what to do. Bruning said he's talked to several GOPers, including Sec/Ag/ex-Gov. Mike Johanns, but Johanns "would not give any information about his intention to run."
Bruning said that he's also fielded calls from Sen. John McCain's campaign about an endorsement, but said that he won't endorse McCain if Hagel runs.
The Los Angeles Times makes some provocative points this morning about a five-year old Sen. Barack Obama "bow[ing] to Allah," about how, though his mother went to Church, "Barry Obama" would often choose to attend mosque, about how he was registered as a Muslim at school.
Campaign spokesman Bill Burton sent a listering, bolded, underlined response: "Barack Obama Is Not and Has Never Been a Muslim."
Depends on what the meaning of the word "is," is, but really: how many young children have fully formed religious identities -- especially young children in mixed religion families? Do we really know why Obama liked to hang out at the mosque? The Times article suggests that the mosque served as a communal gathering place for him and his friends.
A more interesting question is why Obama so forcefully takes exception to having his childhood labeled as such. Certainly, if it's not true, he has a right to object. It could be that, as a Christian, he is offended by those who claim that he once inhabited a different moral universe. It could also be that he knows a general prejudice against Islam exists in America today, and that his identification with that religion could hurt him politically. (A recent poll found that seven percent of those surveyed thought Obama was Muslim -- that can't be helpful in a general election). Or maybe Obama, already a precocious autobiographer, objects to a different interpretation of his history. [MARC AMBINDER]
Editorial side note: I attended a small high school affiliated with the Episcopal Church. Every Wednesday, all students attended a mandatory prayer service. When the students stood, I stood. When they bowed their heads, mine inched down. You might have even caught me mouthing of a few of the hymns. But I was Jewish, as were about fifteen percent of my classmates. We weren't Christians. We didn't become Christians because we sat through the services. Attendence was required; it was a prerequisite -- a community standard.
Before everyone goes nuts about the New York Times's write-up of its interview with Sen. Hillary Clinton, keep this in mind:
The Senate resolution set for debate today endorses the concept of a residual force in Iraq for counterrorism purposes. Said resolution is supported by Sen. Russ Feingold, Sen. Bernie Sanders and other non-Liebermans. Most every Iraq plan propounded by Democrats since the end of "major combat operations" would keep a limited amount of troops in the country or on high alert nearby.
On 1/30, Sen. Barack Obama's office released a fact sheet about his Iraq plan. It included this sentence: "The plan allows for a limited number of U.S. troops to remain as basic force protection, to engage in counter-terrorism, and to continue the training of Iraqi security forces."
Here's what the Times writes of Clinton: "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton foresees a “remaining military as well as political mission” in Iraq, and says that if elected president, she would keep a reduced military force there to fight Al Qaeda, deter Iranian aggression, protect the Kurds and possibly support the Iraqi military. In a half-hour interview on Tuesday in her Senate office, Mrs. Clinton said the scaled-down American military force that she would maintain would stay off the streets in Baghdad and would no longer try to protect Iraqis from sectarian violence — even if it descended into ethnic cleansing."
This is NOT a Note-esque criticism of the Times's Gordon and Healy, who dutifully led with the lede. It's just a caution to those who want to cast the substance of Sen. Clinton's remarks in the worst possible light. [MARC AMBINDER]
Although TV had a lot of talk about AG Gonzales and the situation in Iraq, there were several WH candidates giving interviews:
Duncan Hunter, asked if he would call Giuliani a conservative: "No, I wouldn't."
Asked if McCain is one: "I would say on some issues, yes. But you've got Sam Brownback, conservative, clearly, on some issues, wrong on a few. You know something, what I'm going to do is play my game" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 3/14).
Sam Brownback: "As I am campaigning in Iowa and South Carolina and across the country, people there are conservative, but they don't know where the stances of all the candidates are. We're in March of the year before. So there's a long time for that to be figured out."
Asked if he's proud of voting for the Iraq war: "I am, because I am proud of the troops that have served. I am proud of what they have done in moving forward democracy and liberty in a part of the world that has never known her. But we have a long way to go for this to be stable, and we are not going to stabilize it just militarily. It must be a political solution" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 3/14).
Chris Dodd, asked about being a second-tier candidate: "That is kind of how the national media talk about the race. But I've been around politics long enough ... to know the difference between courtesy and someone who wants to see more of you. And I've done a lot of these town meetings in New Hampshire and Iowa. They have a different perspective on this. They want you to come back, we'll get good commitments and people volunteering, offering to step forward to help out in the campaign" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/14).
And Barack Obama was on the "Today" show this a.m. where he discussed the KSM confession, the situation in Iraq, and the fired U.S. attys. He stopped short of calling for Gonzales' resignation. [EMILY GOODIN]
It's John Edwards's turn to run through the labor gauntlet.
Tonight, the former NC Senator has a private dinner scheduled with the presidents of seven major labor unions, including Leo Gerard of the United Steelworkers and Harold Schaitberger of the Intl' Assoc. of Firefighters, whose conference Edwards and other 08ers addressed today.
The dinner, one of a series with different presidential candidates, is being hosted by the American Federation of Teachers' Ed McElroy and the Communications Workers of America's Larry Cohen.
We also hear that Edwards had lunch with McElroy today.
There are Senate races in '08, too, you know -- so where are all the challengers? Cowering in fear of Susan Collins, perhaps? Check it out, if you dare...
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
National Journal's Alyssa Rosenberg throws out the idea that Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson, an independent Republican, and Sam Waterston, a liberal affiliated with the Unity '08 group, could run together on the Unity '08 ticket.
As his campaign expands, Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney is giving two key members of his staff some new portfolios. Josh Ginsberg, currently the campaign's deputy political director for voter contact, has been promoted to national field director.
The current national field director is Julie Teer, who joined Romney's campaign when it was a sparsely funded political action committee. Teer will become deputy finance director for affinity groups.
Is this a shake-up? A Romney aide, confirming the changes, says no. Both Teer and Ginsberg, the aide said, are moving to positions that best fit their talents. Ginsberg, a disciple of Bush-Cheney strategist Matthew Dowd, helped to craft CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenneger's voter contact strategy. Field directors are responsible for building voter contact organizations -- that's statewide campaigns -- in the early primary and caucus states. This cycle, the states will include -- at least -- Florida and California. Those states will require extensive microtargeting. Ginsberg is also a veteran of the RNC's strategy shop.
The aide said that no further staff changes were expected. [MARC AMBINDER]
A side note: Ginsberg's father, Ben Ginsberg, is the campaign's chief counsel.
The Hotline Political Network is very pleased to announce the addition of two new websites.
Doc's Political Parlor, from the great state of Alabama, and the Tennessee Politics Blog, from, er, yes.
Here's what you need to know about HPN:
Where do political junkies in your state get their news? The sites we're collecting in this network. We don't endorse all the content on 'em -- they're independent, after all, which is a good thing -- but we do vouch for the sites' influence in their states and, generally, the degree to which folks in both major parties find them fair. Some are run by folks who have backgrounds in politics; others are authored by journalists. Some are fully-fledged news organizations.
To be included in our informal network, the sites must operate independently of any political candidate or of any entity that represents political candidates. No one operating a site can be paid by a firm that has an '08 candidate as a client. Site contributors linked to campaigns must disclose their affiliations. If site owners decide to donate to, volunteer for or raise money for any candidate ('08 or otherwise), they gotta tell you about first -- in big bold type, at the top of their pages. That way, you'll know. Other than that, enjoy!
Quite a few of you responded to yesterday's Overlooked about SEN races featuring Reps vs. ex-Reps, although many of the submissions involved primary races, incumbent senators, etc. But the most recent example of a Rep vs. ex-Rep general election for an open SEN seat, prior to OK SEN '04, appears to be NV SEN '86, when then-Rep. Harry Reid (D) defeated ex-Dem Rep. Jim Santini (R). Prior to that, ex-Rep. Lloyd Bentsen (D) beat then-Rep. George H.W. Bush (R) in '70 for what was an open seat after Bentsen defeated Sen. Ralph Yarborough (D).
Seems like there are at least three Republican Parties today.
Today, the NYT runs an article about the National Association of Evangelicals rejecting attacks on their global warming stance and endorsing an anti-torture position.
Also: Southern Baptist Convention poobah Richard Land says that he can't vote for Rudy in a general election.
Name a candidate for President with these characteristics:
1. worried about global warming.
2. anti-torture
3. thinks abortion is murder.
4. supports a guest worker program
There are three. Brownback, Huckabee, McCain.
Name a candidate for President with these characteristics:
1. not so worried about global warming
2. wants to give the govenrment maximum flexibility to stop terrorism
3. thinks abortion is murder
4. opposes a guest worker program.
There are four: Romney, Hunter, Gingrich, Tancredo
Name a candidate for President with these characteristics:
1. worried about global warming
2. wants to give the govenrment maximum flexibility to stop terrorism
3. Pro choice, pro gay rights
4. supports a guest worker program
Rudolph Giuliani's law firm lobbies for Citgo Petroleum Corp., a unit of the state-owned oil company controlled by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, the U.S.'s chief antagonist in the Western Hemisphere. (Bloomberg)
1. The firm is called Bracewell Guiliani.
2. Giuliani's spokesperson, in her response to Bloomberg, does not say whether Giuliani
(a) knew about his firm's work for Citgo
(b) knew about his firm's work for Citgo and disapproved
(c) has veto power of his firm's contracts
3. Don't blame Giuliani's current campaign for this political malapropism. But did anyone from his inner circle advisers
bother to object?
4. Perhaps one way to spin this affirmatively for Rudy is to suggest that he wasn't thinking about running for president when the contract was signed and therefore had no reason to vet clients for political sensitivities.
5. As president, would Giuliani negotiate with -- or hold talks with -- Venezuela, Iran or North Korea? If not does he have to explain today the morality of permitting a firm that has his name (and rep) attached to it to do business with Chavez?
If you're coming into the U.S. Attys scandal a little late and are feeling confused about what's going on, TV can help you out:
CNN's Roberts: "It is the smoking gun in the latest scandal to rock Washington, 144 pages of e-mails and memos showing extensive contact between the White House and the Department of Justice over the firing of the U.S. attorneys. It's so important, because members of Congress, suspicious that politics was behind the dismissals, had previously been told the White House wasn't involved" ("AC 360," 3/13).
CNN's Toobin: "There's a lot of circumstantial evidence here that suggests that some of these people, at least, were fired for not prosecuting Democratic politicians and not prosecuting Democratic voters for vote fraud. That's a political problem. It's not a legal problem" ("AC 360," 3/13).
MSNBC's Abrams: "U.S. attorneys are supposed to be able to act independently. They're supposed to be able to base their decisions about whether to prosecute, not to prosecute, whether to investigate, not to investigate, based on the facts, and not based on political pressure. And that's the real question here, is, is this administration starting to get into the nitty-gritty of telling federal prosecutors how to do their jobs, and then firing them if they don't like them?" ("Tucker," 3/13).
CNN's Arena explains the controversy behind DoJ CoS Kyle Sampson: "Lawmakers were incensed this morning when they found out there were e-mails dating back to early 2005 between Gonzales' chief of staff, Sampson, and White House counsel Harriet Miers, who, it turns out, had suggested all 93 U.S. attorneys be fired" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 3/13).
MSNBC's Olbermann: "Sampson ... strongly urged in a memo to [Miers] that Congress be bypassed in naming replacement attorneys, that the administration use a power deftly, quietly slipped into the Patriot Act in 2006, that allows the attorney general to name replacements without Senate confirmation. ... Sampson ... told a White House aide, 'If we don't ever exercise it, then what's the point of having it?' Three months later, the White House giving the firings a green light" ("Countdown," 3/13).
Newsweek's Wolffe: "This is a complete egregious abuse of the Patriot Act -- had nothing to do with terrorism" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/13).
CNN's Blitzer: "Democratic leaders want to look deeper into the Bush administration. They have their sights on hearings and on the White House deputy chief of staff, Karl Rove" ("Situation Room," 3/13).
CNN's Bash: "Since the beginning of the Bush administration, Democrats have viewed Rove as both political mastermind and master of dirty tricks. With e-mails suggesting he played a role in firing U.S. attorneys, Democrats see an opportunity to finally grill him" ("Situation Room," 3/13).
NBC's Gregory: "Any administration is within its rights to fire a U.S. attorney. They serve at the pleasure of the president. Former President Clinton got rid of the U.S. attorneys back in 1992 when he came into office in 1993" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/13).
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY): "While you can certainly fire a U.S. attorney for no cause or for good cause, you cannot fire a U.S. attorney when they are in the middle of a political investigation and you want to cut it off" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/13).
WH Counselor Dan Bartlett: "The decision to remove these seven U.S. attorneys was made at the Justice Department. They were made on an individual basis based on a totality of evidence from a management standpoint. And we stand by those decisions. Now we are more than happy to share information with the United States Congress. ... The role that the White House played was not to approve -- to craft a list or to add or subtract from the list, but the ultimately sign off on the list. And that's appropriate role" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/13). [EMILY GOODIN]
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Ted Welch is perhaps the most powerful Republican fundraiser in the South, and it was somewhat of a coup when, in January, he signed on with ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Mr. Welch and much of his network of loyal donors were initially inclined to support Sen. John McCain, but Welch has told associates that McCain's support of Trent Lott for minority whip was beyond the pale. (Lott defeated Welch's protege, Lamar Alexander, by a single vote.)
Many Tennessee Republicans appear ready to support Thompson if he runs, and that's led to speculation that Welch would stop picking up the phone for Romney and chair Thompson's campaign.
"Ted Welch is with us," said Matt Rhoades, Romney's communications director.
To go an inch deeper: he has committed to Romney even if Fred Thompson runs?
"Ted Welch is solidly with us," Rhoades said. [MARC AMBINDER]
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards was skeptical about voting for the Iraq war resolution and was pushed into it by advisers looking out for his political future, according to an upcoming book by one of his former consultants.
Democratic strategist Bob Shrum writes in his memoir to be published in June that he regrets advising Edwards to give President Bush the authority to go to war in Iraq. He said if Edwards had followed his instincts instead of the advice of political professionals, he would have been a stronger presidential candidate in 2004.
On the rare occasions when a Rep and an ex-Rep go head-to-head for an open SEN seat, does the ex-Rep have a bit of an edge, all else being equal? If nothing else, the ex-Rep certainly has more scheduling flexibility, not having to worry about missing House votes, and perhaps bears less of a DC "taint" than a current Rep does. Ex-Rep. Tom Coburn (R) defeated then-Rep. Brad Carson (D) in OK SEN '04, but one case doesn't prove a point. Are there other examples prior to that? Let us know. Oh, and it doesn't count if an ex-Rep held another major office prior to his/her SEN bid.
The former Senate Maj. Leader writes in a blog post:
I believe Fred Thompson should run for President. I've not talked with Fred personally about a potential run, so I am basing my thoughts simply on knowing him well, having worked with him in policy and politics everyday for 8 years, and knowing the people across America want a genuine leader who represents them. Fred understands real people and they understand him. He understands the legislative process and has a strong bipartisan appeal, though he is a real conservative. He has the experience of government service with a real appreciation for all three branches of government. He is a commonsense leader.
Chuck Hagel announces he will have an announcement; Fred Thompson may be running -- it all leaves pundits trying to pat their head and rub their belly at the same time.
But first, Mitt Romney was on "Hannity & Colmes":
On his standing in the polls: "It's way too early to be looking at polls. This is very, very early in the presidential process. People start concentrating on these elections and making opinions in the fall. And by the fall and December, I'll be building my strength. Actually, there have been a lot of people in the past who have followed the same course. John McCain was one of them, Bill Clinton, of course. So front-runners usually have a difficult time, and I'm expecting that to happen in this election's case, as well."
FNC's Hannity: "[Giuliani]'s pro-choice. He has said he would appoint originalist justices like Scalia, and Thomas, and Alito. On that issue of judges, is that the type of justice you'd be looking for?"
Romney: "Well, of course, we're all going to talk about appointing judges that will follow the law and not legislate from the bench. But being pro-life is, of course, broader than just the kind of judges you appoint. There's legislation, which month to month and year to year comes forward, that can either protect the sanctity of time of can take it away. As governor, I had several measures that came to my desk, which affected life. And they were not court decisions; they were legislative decisions which I faced as governor. And if you're pro-life, then you're going to come down on the side of life. And if you're pro-choice, you'll take the other direction. And it's something where my record is clear. When my legislature tried redefine when life began, I said no. When they said they were going to clone human embryos for research purposes, I said no. When they said that they were going to block the education of our kids on abstinence in school, I said no. So we're going to be able to define ourselves based upon our positions on issues, and people can decide where they line up" (FNC, 3/12).
WHAT WAS THAT?
Pundits try to find meaning in Hagel's words:
Hagel brother Tom Hagel: "You know as much about it as I do" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/12).
FNC's Hume: "It takes a courageous man to decide he's undecided" ("Special Report," 3/12).
MSNBC's Carlson: "Hagel looks like he just went bankrupt and just woke up at the same time" ("Tucker," 3/12).
Washington Post's Milbank: "This is the political equivalent of Geraldo opening Al Capone's vault" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/12).
CNN's Bash: "It was the political version of kicking the can" ("Situation Room," 3/12).
IS HE A POLITICIAN OR JUST PLAYING ONE ON TV?
Was Thompson serious or not?
WashingtonPost.com's Cillizza: "I'm skeptical about him running. I think he likes his name out there. There is a lot of money in Tennessee that went away when Bill Frist decided not to run. So, he would have something of a funding base, and he is a well-known personality" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/12).
FNC's Cameron: "Odds are against it. A lot of signals from the closest aides and friends to Thompson lead us to probably going to decide not to, but the pressure is growing. A lot of enthusiasm. Conservatives think he might be the guy, because he has had a consistently conservative record" ("Special Report," 3/12).
CNN's J. King: "He hides his toughness behind the affable sense of humor. He's a polished attorney. He doesn't just play one on TV" ("Situation Room," 3/12). [EMILY GOODIN]
Do we need to call security? See for yourself on Chuck's Hotline TV finale. (And don't miss his last "Big Show.")
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Louisiana’s David Vitter, a major Southern conservative, became the first Senator to endorse the presidential campaign of ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani today.
Standing before a throng of national press in DC, Vitter said he was convinced that Giuliani “would appoint the best federal judges of all the major candidates.” He said that Giuliani’s performance as mayor of New York “proved” that “he is a conservative reformer who can make government work using conservative economic policy.” He allowed that he disagreed with Giuliani “on some very significant social issues.”
Said Vitter: “These are really important matters to me and many people I represent. But after numerous personal meetings with him, it is very clear to me that he is not running for President to advance any liberal social agenda.”
We asked Vitter what “a liberal social agenda” was, and he said it included "social issues."
Vitter’s endorsement raises an interesting point: picking the right kind of judges matters for policy outcomes. Despite pleas to the contrary, it doesn't just mean an approach to judging. Vitter said there was “no litmus test” in the Republican Party. Well, there is certainly a strong correspondence between calling oneself a “strict constructionist” in politics and believing that Roe should be overturned or believing that Lawrence V. Texas was a bad decision. [MARC AMBINDER]
We have two theories about Fred Thompson, who formally showed some leg this weekend.
-- 1. The Kingmaker: He's setting himself up to make the game-changing endorsement down the road. Maybe he has a candidate in mind (McCain?) and wants to build his influence. He can't endorse until his ABC Radio contract ends -- if it ends.
-- 2. The Savior: Freshman Sen. Obama lowered the barrier of entry; how could Thompson not consider a run if the party's conservatives beg him to? There'd be two large TN money networks: Lamar's and Frist's -- and, we'd bet, dozens of Bush Rangers. Thompson is firmly pro-life, opposed to gay marriage, supports the surge, is an Iran hawk, pro-tax cut and pro-Scooter pardon -- (almost) the full monty.
-- CW holds that dark horses will be hurt most by the 2/5 Tsunami Tuesday, but maybe not. Remember: most GOP contests are winner-take-all. The field could easily split. Maybe Rudy will win NY. McCain gets CA. Romney wins FL. Red November wins TX. And suddenly, 2/12 (at least VA) and other late Feb. dates become decisive.
With the possibility (albeit still very remote) that Sen. Mary Landrieu's (D-LA) '96 and '02 opponents may both attempt re-matches in '08, one wonders if this would be a first. Namely, have 2 prior nominees for major statewide office, losing to the same opponent, ever attempted re-matches in the same cycle? Let us know. The most recent similar example appears to be when the '90 and '94 GA GOV nominees Johnny Isakson and Guy Millner (who both lost to Gov. Zell Miller), squared off for the '96 SEN nomination, but that of course was for a new office against a new opponent (Max Cleland).
“I think it is extremely disappointing that Senator Hagel would bring the entire state of Nebraska to a screeching halt by holding an elaborate ceremony to announce absolutely nothing.”
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) said today he will postpone any consideration of a presidential bid until "later this year," but hinted that he is open to the possibility of a run.
"America is facing its most divisive and difficult issue since Vietnam—the war in Iraq, an issue that I have been deeply involved in. I want to keep my focus on helping find a responsible way out of this tragedy, and not divert my energy, efforts and judgment with competing political considerations," he said.
And so: "I am here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year."
Hagel said he believes "there will still be political options to me open at a later date," but his choice "will depend on the people of Nebraska and this country." He said he will continue to travel the country to raise money for his PAC, an unsubtle signal to Republicans that he's open to attending political events in IA, NH and SC.
Hagel insisted that, were he to run, his opposition to the Iraq war would not define him. "I am not an anti-war candidate," he told a questioner, and later noted that Presidents Reagan and Eisenhower had withdrawn troops and were not deemed to be "anti-war."
Hagel said that, were he to run, he would keep his Republican affiliation. "I've based my entire political life on what I had thought was the party I shared most of my political philosophy with. I am concerned and have been disappointed with my party over the past few years. I think we've become loose from our moorings."
During his speech, he said "we are experiencing a political re-orientation, a redefining and moving toward a new political center of gravity."
See his full statement after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
It's been as tumultuous a two-week period as the Republican field has had to date. Everyone has had some incredible ups and downs. Mitt Romney seemed on the verge of being in serious trouble and, then, voila, he pulls off a needed solid CPAC performance (even if it took some ballot stuffing). Rudy Giuliani had a great 10 days but the last few haven't been so hot. John McCain's "Letterman" performance was OK, although he did create himself a mini-distraction. All in all, it was a very lively EKG for the GOP field.
This week we have yet another fun twist: an Iowa ranking, which shows where each candidate would score on a list that only applied to the first primary state.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
REPUBLICANS
1. John McCain, Arizona senator Last Ranking: 1
He'll spend about 90 percent of March out of Washington. And when McCain is outside Washington, good things happen. He's still an excellent retail politician. Why is he the front-runner despite the polls? We look at history, state organization, financial strength, message, the role of the media and issues -- the whole gamut. McCain's still got the edge. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $7 million. Iowa ranking: 2.5 (his organization is good but it is still a very dangerous state for him).
2. Rudy Giuliani Former New York City mayor -- Last Ranking: 2
He leads all the polls, has breathtaking fav/unfavs and has a talented if overworked team. But is his image immune to lightning strikes? The Andrew Giuliani story, which cuts at the heart of his appeal -- his character -- wasn't generated by his opponents. His family troubles might be the super-strong gust of wind that blows him off his moorings. Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $6 million. Iowa ranking: 2.5. There's no "there" there yet.
3. Mitt Romney Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 3
We're waiting for the executive, can-do Romney to emerge. He's due for a round of good press, and that's where wife Ann comes in. Her "I'm his only wife" line is (a) true, (b) a self-effacing reference to Mormonism, and (c) probably annoying the heck out of Rudy. Ann brings out the best in her husband, and aides say she cheers him up on the trail. Fundraising projection: $25 million, +/- $6 million (he could outraise McCain this quarter). Iowa ranking: 1 or 2. Almanac Profile
4. No One
Has there ever been a bigger gap between the first tier and the second tier?
As many as 26 states could hold their primaries or caucuses on 2/5/08, representing a full 70% of the U.S. population. By the end of Feb. '08, 40 states and DC may have held some sort of delegate selection process, meaning nearly 86% of Americans will have been able to vote for president before what would traditionally be the March "Super Tuesday."
Has a candidate's offspring ever become so popular, so quickly? The tag-team of Tagg and Craig Romney are now certifiable draws on the campaign trail, and they bring manifold benefits, like the Romney campaign's ability to raise money in three different places at once (Mitt, Ann and sons). Also: the doting and admiring sons of Romney provide a nice, if unstated contrast to the strained relationship ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani and Andrew Giuliani currently have.
Here's a sample invite:
MEET CRAIG ROMNEY
Saturday March 10, 2007
1:30 p.m.
Son of Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney
Craig is a New York City Music Producer and Marketing Specialist
He will be at Dot's Diner 2317 Jefferson Highway (Corner of Labarre Road) Metairie, LA
Light Food and Soft Drinks Will Be Served RSVP: XXX@XXX.com
An alert reader pointed us to a August 25, 1988 Washington Post article about VP George H.W. Bush's refusal to agree to a pre-9/20 debate with Michael Dukakis. Bush adviser Roger Ailes demurs:
"I don't know that we need to do more than one. There's no reason to think we'd need more than one. That's a negotiating item." He added: "We're not anxious to debate at this point. We intend to debate, but we're not going to let anybody stampede us into a debate."
I feel compelled, however -- on a serious note -- to say a few words. We're headed into covering a tough political season and all of us will be called upon to do our best and be fair. Recently pressure groups are forcing candidates to conclude that the best strategy for journalists is divide and conquer, to only appear on those networks and venues that give them favorable coverage.
And:
Any candidate for high office of either party who believes he can blacklist any news organization is making a terrible mistake about journalists. And any candidate of either party who cannot answer direct, simple, even tough questions from any journalist runs a real risk of losing the voters
John Edwards is skipping a debate -- one of more than a dozen -- arguably a little less fundamental to our deliberate democracy. And the threat here is that Fox News will somehow treat Edwards differently if he refuses to appear at their debate. Doesn't that reinforce the reasons why Edwards (spurred by Nevada grassroots Dems, MoveOn and Kos) is dubious?
Make fun of us if we turn about to be wrong, but the talk of an imminent shake up in ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's campaign seems to be unfounded.
# Amid the rumors of belt-tightening, the campaign added two staffers -- eCampaign strategist Mindy Finn and deputy manager Jason Roe. The campaign added field staffers in SC and IA.
# Romney's raising lots of money. Yes, the campaign is burning through it quickly, but no more quickly than his rivals. Given Romney's consultant/CEO background, the campaign's administration and management team uses detailed metrics to track spending and ROI -- that's Return On Investment
Who's fueling the rumors? Other campaigns, maybe.
But Romney supporters are, too -- those on the periphery who are concerned about the direction of the campaign. It's a tried and true tradition -- sympathizers try to pressure the campaign from the outside by bringing their frets to the press. [MARC AMBINDER]
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
In true National Journal style, On The Download asked 24 of the best Republican Internet strategists what they thought of the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates' Web sites. Though this survey never even esteems to be to scientific, here's a quick note on methodology: Of the 24 strategists polled, 15 were unaffiliated and 9 worked for a WH '08 campaigns in some capacity. Therefore, all 24 responses were used when asked about the first question on Dems' Web sites, while only the unaffiliated strategists' answers were used for the question about GOP web sites.
Question 1: Which Democratic WH '08 candidate has the most effective Web site? BarackObama.com -- 10 votes
"On the Democrat side, Obama has the best offline story to tell right now, and it is translating effortlesssly to his online efforts."
"The emphasis on social networking is the perfect fit for Obama, who has already shown himself to be the most popular candidate on social networking sites like Facebook."
"Very rewarding site, visually, a lot of rich content, very modern and sophisticated, and a great logo." HillaryClinton.com -- 7 votes
"Her site is slightly more attractive than (Obama's), and I appreciate the lack of a landing page."
"The video component on Hilary's site is very good for her because she comes across as accessible when normally she does not."
"Edwards emphasis on social networking is exactly what he needs -- supporters generating some buzz in states like Iowa and New Hampshire. He's harnessing all the Web 2.0 tools to do it."
"John Edwards is trying way too hard and making a lot of mistakes in the process."
"Say wht you will about the rest of his campaign, Edwards understands how to effectively use the Internet."
The two main political topics on TV last night were the Dems plan for Iraq and whether VP Cheney still has influence in the WH:
FNC's Angle: "Leaders in the House, in yet another effort to unite their members, announced a complicated plan with several timeline, based on different conditions, but Speaker Pelosi emphasized one common element, aimed at bringing Democrats together" ("Special Report," 3/8).
CNN's Koppel: "Setting up a possible showdown with President Bush and almost daring Republicans to vote against emergency funding for the war, House Democratic leaders today laid out their plan to withdraw all U.S. combat troops by the end of the summer 2008" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 3/8).
Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC): "It's always an issue of how far to go, how much to put in, and what kind of timetables to put in place, what the benchmarks ought to be. And that's a challenge for us, and that's what diversity is all about" ("NewsHour," PBS, 3/8).
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA): "If [Bush] vetoes the legislation, as you know, we have the option to try and override the veto. It may be a steep hill to climb, but that's our responsibility, to try and meet those challenges" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/8).
Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA), on the Dems: "I'm actually glad they've come up with a plan, because I think it shows how completely wrong they are in the understanding of the situation that we're in" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 3/8).
MAN OF THE TOWN OR MAN OUTTA TOWN?
Time's Duffy, on if Cheney will resign: "I don't think this is ever going to happen. The president picked Vice President Cheney because he wasn't going to run for office some day, that he would keep his counsel secret, that he wouldn't have long policy debates, the way some presidents and vice presidents did. George Bush doesn't want to have that again. He doesn't want to pick someone now. I think the instinct inside the White House is very to just gut this out, make the best of the situation, not just with the vice president, but across the board" ("AC 360," CNN, 3/8).
New York Daily News' DeFrank: "It's fair to say that the vice president's power and authority internally has been curtailed. The Libby verdict is a grievous embarrassment to him, but he is still a powerful force, and he's not going anywhere" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 3/8). [EMILY GOODIN]
An occasional series of posts on the presidential endorsement processes for major interest groups.
Organizations: The AFL-CIO and AFSCME
In a 3/7 a.m. press briefing from the AFL-CIO Exec. Council Winter mtg in Las Vegas, NV, Pres. John Sweeney and Political Cmte Chair/AFSCME Pres. Gerald McEntee announced plans for a "very bottom up" WH '08 endorsement process. Sweeney said the group will "involve union members more broadly than ever before" to make sure candidates are "listening to working people." Sweeney: "We are asking each of our unions to reach deep into their membership and provide opportunities for working people to evaluate all the candidates." The "blueprint" of the endorsement process will focus on:
Engaging members in broad discussion
Organizing a series of grassroots issue forums
Hosting a series of discussions on candidates
Utilizing interactive, online resources for members to share ideas, help make decisions and give feedback
Following a major candidate forum in Chicago, IL, Aug. '07, the Exec. Council will convene at their fall meeting to determine whether or not the federation is prepared to endorse a candidate.
McEntee said AFSCME "began" their WH '08 endorsement process with the Pres. forum held in Carson, NV, 2/ 21 but emphasized how they are "not going to act as individual unions" but more so seek to involve members as "messengers" and "activists" to drive the process. He also said he considers the Dem WH '08 field the "best he's ever seen" and that the candidates "are diverse as they are talented, good for the Democratic Party and America."
The AFL-CIO endorsement plan also included a resolution that passed unanimously 3/7, charging all 54 nat'l unions within the AFL-CIO to "take no action to endorse any candidate until the General Board of the Federation can make a decision whether or not to endorse a candidate prior to the primaries, and, if so, which candidate to support." According to Sweeney, in '04, individual unions pursued their own primary endorsements rather than as a collective federation. On the whole, the AFL-CIO "failed to drill down far enough" to "the real activist level" sparking the need to develop a more elaborate endorsement "process of substance." However, Sweeney highlighted the success of union candidates in '06 as a sign that the influence of unions will remain strong in the WH '08 election [AMY DUDLEY]
The self-described "democratic socialist" talks about the treatment of Iraq war veterans, the perils of corporate media ownership and his dissatisfaction with the president's budget -- plus his favorite place in DC. Here's a preview:
Q: As a member of the Veterans Affairs Committee, what concerns do you have about the soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan?
Sanders: I believe that the way the Bush administration has dealt with veterans is a national disgrace. Year after year, they have underfunded the needs of our veterans. They've thrown hundreds of thousands of so-called Category 8 [low health care priority] veterans off of the VA. They have, year after year, tried to raise prescription drug costs and enrollment fees. It is just not acceptable.
A dirty little secret: the amount of money raised by presidential candidates in the first quarter of 2007 carries no inherent implication for their nomination prospects.
And yet -- us political insiders will obsess about little else until we get the numbers. For a variety of reasons, quarter 2 matters more than quarter 1.
But we'll open our notebooks now because it's just plain fun.
1. We're fairly certain that Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) raised $12 million through the first of March. Banked means banked; pledges don't qualify. If that figure is correct, and we have reason to believe that it is, Obama will probably amass northwards of $18 million this quarter, and we'll bet that he banks a little more than $13 million. Can Obama build a mid-to-small donor base in time to reap its rewards by the end of the 2nd quarter? Unclear.
2. Expect Sen. Hillary Clinton to transfer $11 million from her Senate campaign account into her presidential account. Informed donor-types believe that she's be able to raise more than $20 million in "new money," giving her a grand total of more than $32 million. One caveat: a not-small percentage of the new money has been shunted to Clinton's general election account and can't be used for the primaries. So expect Clinton to have roughly $16-20M cash on hand when she reports. How much Clinton raises in the second quarter will determine how large her fundraising network really is. Plenty of donors are hedging their bets.
3. Equivocal signs from Sen. John Edwards's camp. But a $12-15M quarter is reasonable. His second quarter matters more than his first quarter. He probably needs to raise just as much. His fundraising drop-off from Q1 to Q2 in 2003 hurt his campaign more than some of his advisers care to admit.
Expect Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Chris Dodd to do just fine.
Republican donors talk less, so it's harder to gauge the pace of fundraising for the GOP candidates.
It's very possible that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney outraises or almost outraises Sen. John McCain this quarter. Romney's forest of low-hanging fruits is enormous: RGA, personal connections, Olympics, Mormons (Realistic to say he'll get $7M from members of the LDS church this quarter?), Bain connections, some Bush '43 fundraisers, Mass tech companies, Harvard, Harvard, etc. We hear that Romney finance types are actually asking some of their major fundraisers to slow down a little; their goal is to surprise the field in the second quarter, more so than on 4/15.
McCain's fundraising is proceeding well; he's raising money from a different donor base than in '00, and there are bound to be some thorny patches. But no one from his campaign evinces doubt that he'll be in the top two.
Ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani will probably raise more than $10 million. His second quarter is very important.
Of the rest of the field, Sen. Sam Brownback may have a surprisingly good quarter. [MARC AMBINDER]
From Rep. John Lewis (D-GA): " I think it is much too early in the election season to make that kind of decision. I will be evaluating each contender carefully, giving them time to express their commitment to the issues as the election season continues. At some point, I will have an executive session with myself and determine who I will endorse for president. Though President Clinton did call me, he did not at any time discuss my intention to publicly endorse either candidate. He put no pressure on me whatsoever to cast my lot with Sen. Clinton or to hold off on the endorsement of Sen. Obama. Any reports to the contrary are inaccurate."
With the recent talk of various WH '08 contenders switching to SEN races, it's interesting to note that such a mid-cycle switch has never been attempted, at least in recent memory (not counting incumbent sens.) Of course, several failed WH candidates made it to the Senate in later, different cycles (e.g. Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander, Terry Sanford).
There as many people who think he's going to retire as there are who speculate that he'll form an exploratory committee. Sen. Hagel keeps close counsel, and we understand that he has told very few people -- certainly no Senators -- about his decision.
In a self-described PR project for their primary, SC Dem leaders-- joined by Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd—held their “kickoff” fundraising event in DC last night.
While the bulk of the ’08 Dem field was originally scheduled to appear at the reception, only Dodd and Clinton attended—a fact that was not lost on the evening’s attendees. One SC Dem at the event called the candidate turnout “disappointing,” saying the group had expected John Edwards, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson to be among the guests.
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn assured the group that SC will retain its primary importance, and called on candidates to commit to at least 5 visits to the state. Ex-Clinton Press Sec. and SC native Mike McCurry said the candidates should get ready to eat a lot of French fries. For his part, Dodd assured the SC crowd that he'd be in the state until they’re “sick of him.”
And for what the evening lacked in names, it made up for in money. SC is one of a handful of states where the party has to self-fund their primary. Erwin estimated the cost of SC’s primary was $285K in ‘04, and will be closer to $500K by ‘08. But he said, with last night’s fundraiser, the party has already raised $150K to cover the tab.
The success of the event seemed to be attributed to SC Dem chair Joe Erwin. And with accolades flying as fast as the appetizers, Erwin seemed to bask in the praise. Erwin, whose term as party chair ends in April, provided an interesting sub-text for the night: what’s he going to run for?
Back With Her People
Despite recent controversy surrounding her Southern accent in AL, HRC didn’t shy away from slipping into a down-home drawl at the SC reception.
We think it's about Fox. (Convenient: Edwards goes after Clinton but refuses to admit to attacking Clinton, and he attacks Fox and refuses to acknowledge he's attacking Fox.)
BTW: If Fox is the problem, wouldn't it be smart for Dem candidates to use the debate to pillory Fox News? To make fun of the questions?
"PoliticsNJ.com has been purchased by the New York Observer. Site re-launch is today. Christie Whitman and Bob Torricelli have joined the site as bloggers. Wally Edge will remain a columnist."
There was a lot of TV talk on the Jessica Lunsford case. Politics-wise, there were discussions about the Dems and Iraq and there was still plenty of talk of Scooter Libby:
CNN's Koppel: "Democrats in both the House and the Senate are struggling right now, trying to bridge the differences on Iraq, not just with Republicans, but among members of their own rank-and-file" ("Situation Room," 3/7).
Newsweek's Wolffe: "The White House is enjoying that spectacle" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 3/7).
SCOOTING ALONG
FNC's Angle: "The end of the Libby trial cleared the stage for Joe Wilson to leap back into the spotlight, with a conference call for reporters and appearances on four television shows in less than 24 hours, giving him a chance to gloat just a little about the verdict" ("Special Report," 3/7).
New York Daily News' DeFrank: "If there's pardon, it won't happen before the November 2008 election. Because if the president were to pardon Scooter before that, the Republican Party would get flushed right down the drain in those 2008 elections" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/7).
MSNBC's Shuster: "Just the consideration of a Libby pardon could be politically provocative heading towards the 2008 presidential campaigns. Democrats are eager to seize any controversy surrounding the war in Iraq, including the aggressive way the vice president's office tried to deal with the war critic. And Republican war supporters, including John McCain, could pay a political price for a Libby pardon backlash. President Bush does have some time to consider a Libby pardon. Libby will not be sentenced until June, and it could be a year before his appeals are exhausted and Libby is forced to report to prison. Still, if the president wants to keep Libby from ever having to go to prison, it means the White House would have to deal with this issue before the 2008 presidential election" ("Hardball," 3/7).
Libby juror Ann Redington, on Libby: "I don't want him to go to jail" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/7).
Ok, now to the merits. This is an interesting story, and it suggests that Obama was not as careful as he ought to have bee, or could have been. But our political antennae are buzzing here; our ethical antennae are silent. If Obama has a problem, this isn't it.
If a senior Disney Co. executive or a partner in a major institutional shareholder raises money for a candidate and the candidate's qualified visually impaired trust invests in Disney, it wouldn't raise any hackles. Say the candidate also supports, say, an FCC candidate who promises not to over police network television. So what?
In this case, Obama donor George W. Haywood, suggested that Obama employ UBS to manage his money. Obama's UBS-managed trust invested in, among many entities, a very small pharmaceutical company that was new to its field, and in a satellite communications "concerned" that was partly owned by one of his major contributors, the wonderfully named Jared Abbruzzese.
The difference here is not one of kind -- it's one of magnitude. The smaller the company, the more obscure the company is, the more a company’s backer has ties to the “Swift Boats,” the more suspicious one is supposed to become of the dynamics underlying the purchase. (Were the companies really obscure? Opinions differ. But if the Times pronounces them as "relatively obscure," then maybe they are.)
But if the ethical principle is: it's OK to invest in companies owned by your fundraisers, then journalists covering the story need to justify why the standard changes: in this telling, it's the obscurity of a purchase and not the purchase itself that's the issue. The Times suggests that Haywood recommended that Obama use UBS's broker in part because he knew that UBS would invest some of Obama's assets in the two companies partly owned by Haywood.
The ultimate consequences of the purchase provide no help, here. Obama lost money overall and divested himself as soon as the purchases were disclosed to him. The facts are on his side.
If you think Obama is lying and somehow directed his broker to purchase these stocks on Haywood's advice (and knew that Haywood was an investor in those companies), and if Obama planned to use his office to appropriate avian flu funds to the pharma company, then... say that. The circumstantial evidence does not begin to prove it.
The Times justifies the content of its story, and by implication, its page A-1 placement, by pointing to the fact that Obama "has made ethics a signature issue." Fair point. Media critics we're not, but we wonder if the Times editors hope this story sends a message to the candidates and the Times' competitors that it will closely scrutinize every ink mark, iota and giblit.
By the way: who's the broker? He/she's at the center of the storm, and we don't know who he/she is.
1. Chris Cillizza is right that Tom Loeffler will be "elevated" by Sen. John McCain. to the informal post of consiglieri. We hear that Loeffler, joined by Ex-Sen. Phil Gramm, will be McCain's chief enforcers. Their goal: prevent Republican donors and poo-bahs from placing bets with any other candidate. Loeffler will work out of McCain's Crystal City campaign offices.
2. Newt Gingrich asked God to forgive his sins. That word comes from James Dobson's press shop. The former House Speaker was a guest on Dobson's radio program. The show airs tomorrow.
3. Fred Thompson teases. He'll have "more to say" about a possible presidential run in the future.
4. Sen. John McCain defended Sen. Barack Obama's stock purchases.
For 15 years there has been one Hotline constant: Chuck Todd. As a result, a generation of political junkies has witnessed a rare melding of individual and institution. Through 4 pres. campaigns, hundreds of tight cong. races, recounts and scandals, he was here. Chuck has defined The Hotline.
As editor-in-chief, Chuck has led through uncertain times for news orgs. And he's done every job here -- from 4 am clipping of actual newspapers, to late-night phone calls back when faxes were groundbreaking, to TV transcribing, to election all-nighters. With his unique wit and unparalleled political acumen, he's done it all.
He leaves today for a larger stage. As pol. dir. for NBC News, he takes his expertise to a mass audience. And millions of "Today" and "Nightly News" viewers will better understand the ins-and-outs of politics because of it. The Peacock's plume just grew brighter, and his presence will be missed by us all. But The Hotline will still be here, better than ever, to provide the most comprehensive, smart and cutting-edge news and commentary around. Because that is the legacy of Chuck Todd. [THE HOTLINE STAFF]
A note to reporters: Obama's trust wasn't blind at the time of establishment. A trust cannot be blind if you know what it contains or are able to know what it contains. Calling it a "blind trust" misleads viewers and reporters. Something is either blind, or it's not. Now -- Obama can claim and has claimed that he didn't know his broker bought the stocks -- but that's a different point. If he had wanted a blind trust, there's a fairly easy procedure in place for Senators. Real blind trusts don't begin tp purchase stocks until they're fully established. Obama did not avail himself of that procedure.
Barack Obama sent an e-mail to supporters yesterday to launch a different type of small donor fundraising campaign that is focused on people, not dollars.
In the e-mail, in which he vows against “taking any contributions from Washington lobbyists or political action committees,” Obama again plays up the “historic” nature of his run coupled with the bottom-up grassroots campaign/movement he wants to build.
The e-donor drive is asking supporters to pick a dollar amount that they are willing to donate. Then, they are given an opportunity to write a note to another supporter who gave the exact same amount telling them “about the importance of their involvement."
Rather than publicly displaying the total amount of money raised, Obama is publicizing the number of people participating.
Obama: “We need to dramatically multiply the number of people who own a piece of this historic campaign, because the only way we can win is by making this campaign belong to as many people as possible. … But this campaign isn't just about money. And our democracy shouldn't be either. It should be about people.”
Here's a small sampling of the Scooter Libby talk from last night's TV:
CNN's Crowley: "It's hard to see how a terrifically weakened president is any more weakened by this" ("Situation Room," 3/6)
MSNBC's Shuster: "Legally, this investigation is over unless Scooter Libby decides that he has information that he can provide to prosecutors and prosecutors agree to try and cut a deal" ("Hardball," 3/6).
FNC's Kondracke: "The question is here, can the Democrats figure out some way to subpoena people, get this into the investigative stream in Congress, put people under oath and try to develop the story even further? So far, no indications that they can" ("Special Report," 3/6)
MSNBC's Matthews, on the effect on Cheney: "Clearly, when you have a chief of staff and a close confidant working at the office day after day, doing things that are perceived to be illegal now, you got to wonder about the role of the boss" ("Scarborough Country," 3/6).
HOW LONG WILL HE GET?
Washington Post's Leonnig: "Federal sentencing guidelines would suggest that anywhere from 1.5 to 3 years; some people take a more rigid interpretation and think that the time frame could be a little bit longer" ("NewsHour,' PBS, 3/6).
CNN's Toobin: "He could probably stretch out the appeals process until November 2008" ("AC 360," 3/6).
MR. WILSON'S WAR
Joe Wilson made the TV rounds
"We weren't part of the investigation. We will be part of the civil suit" ("AC 360," CNN, 3/6).
More: "The president also said that he would fire anybody involved in the lake. We know that Karl Rove was involved in it. We have that testimony on the record. And he's still employed by the White House. So I don't know what to say. Is the president going to keep his word on this or anything?" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 3/6).
On rumors there will be a movie: "I read that. I read that in the newspapers. We have, in fact, signed a contract with Warner Brothers and we'll see how it develops" ("LKL," CNN, 3/6).
EVERYBODY GETS ASKED ABOUT SCOOTER
DNC Chair Howard Dean: "Scooter Libby now has a great incentive to tell what else was going on in the vice president's office. ... The best way that the president has to shut Scooter Libby up before sentencing is to pardon him. I hope that will not happen" ("Situation Room," CNN, 3/6).
John Edwards: "The American people deserve to know how far this goes. You know, does it stop at Scooter Libby? Does it go to others in the administration, the vice president, Karl Rove and others?"
More: "He should not be pardoned. This is a situation where he has been convicted at a crime committed as part of his official responsibilities in working for the vice president. He absolutely should not be pardoned" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/6).[EMILY GOODIN]
Obama and Clinton(s) cross the bridge to the '08 primary. Follow the leader and check it out!
Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!
Kathy Sullivan, the outgoing chair of the NH Dem party, e-mails: "Now that our Attorney General has totally exonerated Raymond Buckley, Jim Craig, who stepped in to fill the vacuum, is suspending his candidacy for chair and supporting a rules change to let Raymond run for NH Democratic Party chair. It is good to know that wrongs can be righted."
(Buckley, the frontrunner to replace Sullivan, was accused by a former roommate of a felony; the NH AG found no basis for the charge).
Presidential candidates: it's now officially OK to start calling Ray Buckley again. Craig's full statement is after the jump.
Is John McCain the John Kerry of '08? If so, is that a good or bad thing?
-- The presumptive frontrunner due to establishment backing, superior org. and a "war hero" persona, Kerry ambled through '03 with limp support from Dem activists. Questions about his liberal creds paved the way for Howard Dean on the Left. Four years later, another war hero can't catch fire with his party's base. Questions about his conservative creds have opened the door for Romney and Giuliani on the Right.
-- In IA, Kerry proved that org. and the establishment matter. Can McCain, now 20 points down, do the same? Their landscapes are similar: Both face younger, charismatic rivals (Edwards/Romney) and NE moderates who draw surprising support from party wings that stem from hot-button issues (Dean & gay marriage/Giuliani & 9/11). All 4 rivals share one quality: far less experience than McCain/Kerry in public office, or on the trail, two key factors in the first wide-open WH race since 9/11.
-- Ultimately, '04 Dem primary voters chose experience and (what they thought was) electability. Can McCain mirror Kerry's primary success, but avoid his general-election fate?
Alternately dubbed Super Tuesday, Super Duper Tuesday, Mega-Tuesday, Giga-Tuesday and most recently, the "Powerball Primary" (by National Journal's Charlie Cook), Feb. 5 could make or break the winners of the early states.
But the date is getting crowded, with as many as 20 states possibly voting that day, and several delegate-rich big states including CA, TX, IL, NJ and NY likely to dominate.
As many forward-thinking analysts have surmised, other states might be better off voting after Feb. 5. Granted, if a clear winner emerges that day, the states voting after Feb. 5 would be irrelevant. But if the Feb. 5 primaries narrow the field down to two or three candidates, the states voting in the weeks after Feb. 5 could be decisive.
Here's a look at the states that have decided not to follow the Feb. 5 crowd:
NEVADA (2/7 GOP caucuses): Responding to early Dem activity for the 1/19 Dem caucus, GOP leaders agreed last Friday to hold their caucus two days after Super Tuesday. The GOP is hoping three or four candidates will emerge from 2/5, and then travel to Nevada to grab the next headline. A final approval is expected from the state GOP’s executive board tomorrow.
MICHIGAN (2/9 Dem primary?): State Dems and GOPers are still negotiating a 2/5 primary, but for now, Dems have said they’ll hold a statewide vote on 2/9.
NEBRASKA (2/9 Dem caucuses): Rather than risk being lost in the crowd on 2/5, state Dems are gambling that the contest will still be undecided by 2/9, when they could help decide a tight race.
KANSAS (early Feb. primary): Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh (R) has appointed a bipartisan advisory panel to study the primary calendar and recommend the best possible primary date for KA. Thornburgh favors a primary sometime after 2/5, and he has asked the Legislature to give him more flexibility in choosing the date. State Sen. Phil Journey, who introduced a bill in Jan. to set the date at 2/5, now agrees with Thornburgh.
LOUISIANA (2/9 primary): The state WH primary has been tentatively set for 2/9.
MAINE (2/10 Dem caucuses): In Jan., the state Dem cmte decided on a 2/10 caucus date, hoping to have a chance to be a deciding factor.
VIRGINIA (2/12 primary): The state WH primary has been tentatively set for 2/12.
WISCONSIN (2/19 primary): If no candidate sweeps the 2/5 primaries, WI could end up strategically sandwiched between the two Super Tuesdays on 2/5 and 3/4, with a mid-Feb. date all to itself [TINA SALVATO].
Over the past few days, Sen. Joe Biden's campaign has unfurled a long list of elected official endorsements in SC.
They include several of the state's most prominent black political leaders. Sen. Gerald Malloy is the immediate ex pres. of the SC trial bar, an influential position in an influential group. And Rep. Jerry Govan represents Orangeburg, the African American heartland of the state.
Also, state Sen. Glenn Reese (D-Spartanburg) was a major supporter of Sen. John Edwards in '04. Luckily for Sen. Biden's staff, Reese owns Krispy Kreme franchises here. Also, Leon Lett, the Richland Co. Sheriff.
Perhaps the biggest name on the list: Jim Smith. the former state house majority leader who is currently serving in Afghanistan. He's also a trial lawyer.
The full list of endorsements is after the jump. These are fairly big gets for Biden. [MARC AMBINDER]
"The conviction today underscores what happens when our foreign and national security policies are subverted by politics and ideology. Leaks and innuendo in pursuit of a flawed policy lead to shameful episodes such as this. It should never happen again."
The Washington Times draped Sen. Jim Webb's bill to prohibit funding of military operations in Iran without Congressional approval across the top of its front page.
And no one -- not Republicans, certainly not Democrats -- can begrudge him.
A Republican -- Rep. Walter Jones -- introduced similar legislation in the House. He has near 50 cosponsors.
Kind of makes you wonder whether this will be the Dems' solution to their constitutional inability to put the cat back in the cage. Remember too how Sen. Hillary Clinton took to the Senate floor two weeks ago to demand that Pres. Bush seek Congressional approval before invading Iran.
Both Webb and Clinton seem to acknowledge that proaction is better than reaction. And this is a fight Democrats can actually win. [MARC AMBINDER]
The Note's Command of the day: "While Democrats on Capitol Hill reach (again and still) their moments of truth on Iraq, and while Republicans ask themselves if the US Attorney story is a huge problem or a giga-mega problem, if you want to be certain you are tracking the long term of American politics, you need to re-check in on the Hillary Clinton for President campaign today."
Romney's camp today launched its first Spanish radio ad. It features ex-FL GOP Chair Al Cardenas (release).
Hillary Clinton "will begin an ambitious effort" today to "enlist thousands of women" for her campaign (New York Times).
In his comments yesterday, Rudy Giuliani "didn't mention either" Andrew or Caroline "by name, or discuss his relationship with them" (New York Post).
Chris Dodd said in IA: "You're going to be so sick of seeing me here" (Omaha World-Herald). Meanwhile, Barack Obama attended fundraisers in MA and NY (Boston Herald).
Thought of the morning: Jon Stewart, on the upside of the Walter Reed story: "Yes, there is tons of black mold growing in the walls where we house our wounded soldiers. But nobody mentions, mold can be used to make cheese" ("Daily Show").
TV is still giving a lot of coverage to Walter Reed Hospital and the conditions there. Otherwise the political talk focused on Ann Coulter's comments, Rudy Giuliani's family and Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Selma:
CNN's Roberts, on Bill Clinton's presence in Selma: "The fact that he needed to be there is the lead of the story, in the sense that she is very much threatened by Senator Obama's continued inroads and advancing inroads in the African- American community. ... The fact that she needs to play the Bill card so soon in the community where he is so beloved is a sign of weakness, not strength" ("AC 360," 3/5).
New York Times' Zeleny: "He did not come out until very late in the day. It was after Senator Clinton had already finished her speech. In fact, she spoke a couple times. She met privately with some black leaders in Montgomery. So he was there and sort of at the very end of the day. And, you know, at that point, they were really looking for sort of a good photograph of all three of them together" ("NewsHour," PBS, 3/5).
CNN's Crowley: "What this does do is feed to that image that Hillary Clinton is very, very studied, that she does everything with a purpose, and that she makes her message so that it points toward a particular audience. So, that's where the harm is in this" ("AC 360," 3/5).
FNC's Cameron: "In the past the Giuliani kids have been fixtures on the campaign trail when he was running for mayor. They have not been this time. And Andrew said basically it was a problem with his candidate father's third wife, Judith Nathan. Mr. Giuliani was asked about it today, and said that it was a private matter, and he did not want to discuss it, and it would be in the best interests of the family if it remained private, and sort of asked the media to lay off" ("Special Report," 3/5).
Ann Coulter: "The word I used has nothing to do with sexual preference. It is a schoolyard taunt, and unless you're going to announce here on national TV that John Edwards, married father of many children, is gay, it clearly had nothing to do with that. It's a schoolyard taunt" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 3/5).
A CHENEY UPDATE
FNC's Baier: "After Vice President Cheney complained of what aides called mild calf discomfort, he visited his doctor's office at George Washington University. An ultrasound there revealed a deep vein thrombosis, or DVT, otherwise known as a blood clot. Aides say his doctors will be treating him with blood-thinning medication that he will have to take for several months. ... Vice-President Cheney, you may recall, just returned last week from flying around the world in nine days, with stops in Asia, Australia, and the Middle East, logging more than 65 hours aboard Air Force Two. Experts also say blood clots can form during prolonged travel" ("Special Report," 3/5). [EMILY GOODIN]
The American Conservative Union, which runs CPAC, released this statement:
"The just completed 2007 Conservative Political Action Conference on March 1 – 3, 2007, was the largest in the 34 year history of the event, featuring 33 panels on a variety of public policy issues, 24 stand alone speakers including public officials, writers, student activists, media personalities and comedians."
"ACU, the event’s primary sponsor and CPAC strive to provide a platform and forum for a variety of differing views and personalities. ACU and CPAC do not condone or endorse every speaker or their comments at the conference. As such, ACU and CPAC leave it to our audience to determine whether comments are appropriate or not:"
" Ann Coulter is known for comments that can be both provocative and outrageous. That was certainly the case in her 2007 CPAC appearance and previous ones as well. But as a point of clarification, let me make it clear that ACU and CPAC do not condone or endorse the use of hate speech."
So -- a procedural response from CPAC. The CPAC speaker selection process, says Mr. Keene, is neutral about content. It's all about the process. (There's an echo in our minds about the Supreme Court and religion, but we digress).
Well -- this is a conservative conference. Mr. Keene subjected the panelists to ideological scrutiny, right?
So does Keene think Coulter's remark was "hate speech?"
Would Keene defend anything Coulter said? Is all speech protected?
Doesn't the grant of a prime speaking slot at CPAC indicate at least a tacit level of approval of both the speaker and her comments?
Did CPAC this year invite the Log Cabin Republicans? (See the end of the linked article).
In California, ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani "called for privacy" after questions regarding with relationship with son Andrew.
"My wife Judith is a very loving and caring, good mother and … stepmother. She has done everything she can. The responsibility is mine and I believe that these problems with blended families are challenges, sometimes they are. And the challenges are best worked on in private. The more privacy I can have for my family, the better we are going to be able to deal with all these difficulties."
It may be unfair, but almost nothing reflects personal character better than -- or more accurately than -- your family. We think: If Giuliani is disqualified by Republicans, it'll be because the sturdy statue of his character collapses, not because he is pro-choice.
We don't necessarily speak this language, but we felt we'd pass this e-mail from a reader along:
A Second Life attack group has been identified as the perpetrators of last week's attack on the virtual HQ of U.S. Presidential candidate John Edwards.
This has been unfair for Edwards. His online outreach has been flawless, and this was an unofficial site created by a volunteer. It became randomly-selected target of an organized group of in-world pranksters who prefer attacking with server-clogging floods of an image of Nintendo's Mario -- or giant advancing
posters of Jell-o Pudding Pops spokesman Bill Cosby.
We all know what happened the last time Giuliani faced bad press about his family in the midst of a heated campaign. He quit. What he learned in '00 SEN will determine how he responds to new reports about strained relations with his kids. And that response could say lots about the GOP frontrunner's WH'08 prospects.
-- In other words, it's not the report, it's the response. Strong candidates can overcome perceptions of family discord (even children's refusal to campaign) if they frame it as a common personal struggle, and don't dismiss it as irrelevant. As he made clear in '00, Giuliani thinks his family is quite relevant.
-- Then again, is this just the beginning of hard times for Giuliani? Rumors have circulated for weeks that rival camps are planning anti-Rudy oppo-drops on a range of topics. Following a month in which he made inroads to conservatives, is more bad press just around the corner? And if you're McCain or Romney, how do you respond? Pile on? Or back away?
-- Camp Rudy has never had the thickest skin. If last weekend was any indication, they might want to grow one.
But what's the problem? Romney's campaign was open to the New York Times about its expensive show of support. And straw polls reward organization. And the Iowa caucuses reward organization.
No one should interpret Romney's CPAC showing as representative of his strength among conservatives. But it's not clear why his attempt to gin up support -- and demonstrate that he can put on a good show -- is hinky.
Choice To Be The Republican Nominee For President in 2008
Combined 1st/2nd Choice 1st Choice 2nd Choice
Giuliani 33% 17% 16%
Gingrich 30% 14% 16%
Romney 30% 21% 9%
Brownback 23% 15% 8%
McCain 20% 12% 8%
NPR's Ken Rudin offers an answer to 3/2's Overlooked, which asked when the last time a defeated ex-Rep. was elected GOV. It might be John Gilligan (D-OH), who lost his House re-election bid in '66 and a '68 SEN bid before winning GOV in '70. (He's also the father of KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius). The last 3 ex-Reps. who retired from the House before winning GOV races are Bill Richardson (D-NM), John Rowland (R-CT), and George Allen (R-VA).
An unfortunate video tape (who took it, we wonder?) surfaces. But Romney's campaign quickly condemned Coulter's remarks, and we're fairly certain that Coulter, when she appears on television later today, will criticize Romney for caving to pressure. Note: this video was recorded before Coulter spoke. (PoliticalDerby wants a hat tip for this anonymously forwarded video, so -- Hap Tip, PD. )
Why does Sen. John McCain sit atop our '08 race rankings when he's the two-to-one underdog in national polls?
-- He continues to lead most polls in NH and all of them in SC. He's running strong in IA, too, despite stepping away from the '00 caucuses. He's leading in MI, and was leading in the last GOP poll we saw in CA. McCain has the strongest teams in IA, NH and SC bar none.
-- While voters fawn over Rudy Giuliani, they continue to like McCain quite a bit. His fav/unfavs are very strong. Romney's favs are ok among conservatives, but among Republicans, generally, they're even with his favorables.
-- When was the last time you read a "McCain Panders To the Right" story?
-- He'll probably wind up raising more money this quarter than any other candidate, although Romney might come close. His direct mail list is producing significant returns, his calendar is full of fundraisers, and no major bundler has defected.
-- He continues to get endorsement after endorsement: Thune, Ridge, Sen. Warner, Chip Pickering, Mitch Daniels, Frank Keating, strategist Charlie Black. Note that Sen. Hillary Clinton hasn't been able to keep prominent Dems from endorsing Sen. Obama, but McCain, for the most part, has been able to keep prominent Republicans from endorsing anybody else.
-- In a favorable cover story, National Review's Ponnuru urged conservatives to take a closer look at his record.
-- His formal announcement on Letterman was funny, self-effacing and well-covered; his troop lives "wasted" gaffe wasn't.
-- McCain (and Hillary Clinton) are two candidates who, by dint of their public profiles, are immune from opposition research. Their popularity (or lack thereof) reflects the sum of all there is to know about them. So more than the other candidates, McCain and Clinton will rise (or fall) on their merits.
-- Most insiders believe that McCain will be the nominee. Only 11 percent of RNC members surveyed by the Los Angeles Times say they'd never vote for McCain. McCain's nomination has the tacit blessing of the Bush White House. "Tacit blessing' doesn't mean "endorsement" -- it means that the White House -- Karl Rove, specifically -- is not going to put his body in front of any prominent GOPer who wants to endorse McCain.
Welcome back to On The Download, your dispatch on politechs: Politics, Multimedia and the Internet. If you have tips, comments, or suggestions, email us.
While Republicans have been able to streamline their states’ files into a smooth-running turnout machine over the past few cycles, Democrats have continuously stumbled on the road to coordinating voter files across the country.
But the DNC might be on that same road to recovery starting this month when states began integration into Democrats’ new national voter file system, called “Vote Builder.” The company behind the technology, Voter Activation Network (VAN), was already working with more than two dozen states last cycle, but the DNC expects to have at least 90 percent (or 45 states) sign up for the new system.
"This deal is a crucial step to creating a truly national voter file that will allow Democratic candidates to have access to the best possible tool for running their campaigns,” said DNC Director of Technology Ben Self, who oversaw this $8M effort over the past couple years to create an in-house voter file for the DNC.
Contrary to popular semantics, this is not a replacement for Demzilla, the DNC’s donor database. It’s also not a replacement for anything else because the DNC has not had a national voter file system and was continuously playing catch-up to the RNC’s Voter Vault for the past few cycles [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Which will last longer, the Daley machine in Chicago or the media focus on Barack Obama's race? And what does it take, besides paper and scissors, to create the perfect VP? Find out on HotlineTV.
"I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word ‘faggot,’ so I — so kind of an impasse, can’t really talk about Edwards," Ann Coulter said today at CPAC. Her audience seemed to to evince both shock and delight.
The Human Rights Campaign's Joe Solomnese was not happy.
“To interject this word into American political discourse is a vile and disgusting way to sink the debate to a new, all-time low. Make no doubt about it, these remarks go directly against what our Founding Fathers intended and have no place on the schoolyard, much less our country’s political arena.”
Next, there'll be calls for Republican candidates to disassociate themselves from Coulter's remarks. Unfairly, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney faces the biggest burden: he spoke right before Coulter and praised her... not knowing what she planned to say.
1. Sen. John McCain was the surprise winner of last night's Spartanburg, SC straw poll, eclipsing ex-NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani for the lead today. Some McCain opponents grumbled that McCain suddenly "found" 50 votes, but we don't think Spartanburg GOP chair Rick Beltram -- not a particularly huge McCain fan -- would have certified the results if he'd been suspicious about fraud. The results:
2. As we reported below, McCain picked up the support of noted GOP strategist Charlie Black. It's a major Beltway get.
3. Also: we hear that Sen. Hillary R. Clinton gave the keynote address today to the board meeting luncheon of the Human Rights Campaign, the nation's top gay rights lobby. Gay support for HRC is not a given; many activists are still angry that President Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act into law. But Clinton herself has proven a reliable supporter of gay rights -- sans gay marriage, which she opposes.
It's the first bipartisan forum with the major '08 presidential candidates. The first union forum with all announced Democratic candidates. The International Association of Firefighters hosts its annual legislative conference on 3/14 in DC, and no major Democratic candidate would dare to be square.
Check out the line-up, which includes three Republicans, too:
8:30 a.m. IAFF General President Harold Schaitberger
This weekend’s CPAC is a microcosm of conservative activists from around the country, which made it a perfect testing ground for MA Gov. Mitt Romney’s (R) new economic policy stump speech. And he let out all the stops for this crowd: Not only did he drop the “R” word at least twice, he also dropped the “M’ word twice by blasting the Arizona Senator for both his immigration and campaign finance bill.
First, Romney criticized McCain by calling for the repeal of McCain-Feingold and pledging to fight to repeal the law if elected. Second, he blasted McCain-Kennedy as an ineffective immigration policy.
Finally, Romney laid out his pledge to cap non-defense discretionary spending at inflation minus 1 percent. It’s the same plan Romney was selling in New Hampshire yesterday that also promised he would veto any budget sent by congress that exceeds that cap, regardless of party. And to that, he got his vigorous round of applause.
To cap it off, he asked for the line item veto back that he had as Governor. “I like vetoes,” he said – yet another knock to the sitting President who has been too stingy for many conservatives with his veto power.
Although the Governor's appearance was not without agitation from activists concerned with his past positions on social issues. In addition to flip-flops in four different bright colors, a large dolphin (“flipper”) played agent provocateur before, during and after Romney’s speech [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Pushed back to half and hour due to the crush to see Rudy Giuliani’s speech in the main convention hall, Townhall VP Chuck DeFeo kicked off CPAC’s “Conservative Victories with New Media” panel by introducing the Heritage Foundation’s Rob Bluey who asked each panel member to share their new media conservative victories.
RedState’s Erick Erickson talked about their success promoting an altercation between Harold Ford and Bob Corker at an airport in Memphis, TN. Erickson said RedState kept video of the incident at the top of their site for days before it start going play locally before breaking on to Fox News. Erickson said the episode was key to Ford’s slipping behind Corker in the polls, eventually leading the GOPers victory.
David All touched on his efforts to put his former boss Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) in front of as many eyes as possible, even if that meant venturing into enemy territory like the Bill Maher and Stephen Colbert shows.
James O’Keefe promoted the Leadership Institute’s mission of helping students start their own conservative newspapers nationwide. For his new media angle, O’Keefe told how we captured his satirical yet successful effort to ban Lucky Charms at Rutgers dining halls on YouTube.
NewsBusters.org Matthew Sheffield recounted his role in starting the RatherBiased blog that eventually helped dethrone CBS anchor Dan Rather by exposing flaws in 60 Minutes National Guard/Pres. Bush story.
The first panel questioner from the audience asked how CPAC planned to help him hookup with fellow CPAC attendees once he was back in GA [CONN CARROLL]
The following item caught out attention from Sen. Hillary Clinton's public sked for today:
-- 1:40pm, The Ed Schultz Show: Senator Clinton will be live on The Ed Schultz Show to discuss the situation at Walter Reed Army Medical Center.
Why did this catch our eye? Because of this rant Schultz had regarding Clinton a few weeks back. Among the lines Schultz uttered: "Hillary's people treat us like dirt. We are constantly disregarded, told things that aren't true, and given speculation an interview might happen someday."
We'd love to find out how the interview went since we didn't get the heads up about the radio appearance until 1:26pm today and didn't get to it ourselves until 2pm. We'll chalk that up to email servers. (FYI, we're told the minute the Clinton folks and Schultz folks secured the time slot, Clinton's office sent the alert).
Update: A Clinton source informs us Clinton last appeared on the Schultz program 2/8, so she clearly is making herself avail to Schultz (post-rant).
By a very quick count, it appears that about half of sitting House members who've run for GOV over the past 15 years have succeeded in their bids. But ex-Reps who've run recently haven't fared so well. Mike Parker (R-MS), Bill Orton (D-UT), Matt Salmon (R-AZ), Bill Cobey (R-NC), David Emery (R-ME), Chris Bell (D-TX), and Asa Hutchison (R-AR) all lost GOV bids after sitting out for a spell. John Rowland (R-CT) appears to be the most recent ex-Rep to win a GOV seat (in '94, after voluntarily leaving the House in '90 for a failed GOV bid). But who was the last defeated ex-Rep. to make a successful GOV bid?
It's hard not to view Barack Obama as the candidate with the momentum these past two weeks. The spike you are seeing in national polls is simply Obama's announcement from more than two weeks ago finally sinking in. If he hadn't started moving up, there would be cause for concern in his camp.
The thing we'll be watching for over the next few weeks is whether John Edwards can stay in the top tier as far as the media's concerned. The David Geffen incident showed just how dominant Hillary Clinton and Obama can be in a news cycle. That had to be a scary moment for Edwards and everyone else. By the way, we're no longer ranking Wesley Clark.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.
1. Hillary Clinton -- New York senator Last Ranking: 1
Take a look at how the Clinton campaign bookended Obama's Ohio visit this week. They pre- and rebutted it -- a classic procedure from a classic procedural campaign. As for Geffen, the strategy was clear: knock Obama off his high horse, bait him into a tit-for-tat, and secondarily, remind base voters, many of whom don't like "Clintonism," of solidarity they felt with the Clintons during the impeachment debacle, which has morphed into an historical asset for Clinton. Fundraising projection: $35 million (including the $10 million roll-over), +/- $5 million. Almanac Profile
2. Barack Obama -- Illinois senator Last Ranking: 2
The media, in trying to learn from last cycle, doesn't seem terribly impressed with big crowds (15,000 in Austin, 7,000 in Cinnci-freaking-Republican-nati). But Obama isn't Howard Dean. The crowds turned out for Dean because of his anti-war message; they hadn't invested in him as a candidate. Obama's supporters are genuinely curious about him. It doesn't seem to matter that he doesn't really say much. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $5 million.
3. Al Gore -- Former vice president Last Ranking: --
He debuts because the Academy begged him to run, because he was the beneficiary of about $15 million worth of free, positive media, and because his entrance could knock either Edwards and/or Obama out. James Carville keeps saying Gore will run because the Clinton universe knows that if he does, interest in Obama translates into solidarity with Gore. Ask Mark Penn whether he's polled this. Fundraising projection: N/A, and he can't really fund himself, regardless of what some folks whisper. But who doubts his ability to raise money, especially with, say, Joe Trippi running his campaign? [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]
A reader passes along an excerpt from the New York Times on 6/18/93:
“Leaflets distributed by the Giuliani campaign at the morning program said that he opposes restrictions to Federal Medicaid financing for abortions and opposes the Hyde Amendment, which is intended to deny support for that financing.
Compare that two what Bill Simon, a Giuliani surrogate, said of his boss. In his recounting, Giuliani won't tinker with the Hyde Amendment, which is current federal law.
In theory, Giuliani could still oppose the Hyde Amendment but also could promise -- a la Mitt Romney in 2002 -- not to change existing law.
At any rate, Giuliani's position today suggests that he puts much less of a priority on the Hyde amendment than he did in 1993.
Makes you wonder why... and also makes you wonder whether Giuliani will decide not to challenge other parts of federal law that conservatives want to protect.
Rudy Giuliani wins the Spartanburg Co. straw poll in South Carolina -- a surprise.
He might even with this weekend's CPAC straw poll, which, contrary to what we reported yesterday, asks voters for their choice.
Make fun of CPAC all you want: attendees are conservative, and they're politically educated, and they probably know more about Giuliani's cultural politics than most journalists who cover the race.
We're wondering: are conservative elites -- not the CPACers, but the conservative chattering class -- making the same misjudgment, the same generalizations, about Republican base voters that the MSM has been making for years?
Why is it impossible to believe that a plurality of these voters care more about -- prioritize, in fact -- a successful prosecution of the war against terror and effective conservative government -- than they do about making incremental progress against the march of gay rights and abortion rights?
These Republicans might believe that the central moral dilemma of our time is the balance between liberty and security. With reference to George Will's famous dictum that most Americans -- even Republicans -- are operationally liberal, the central failing of the modern Conservative Movement has been its inability -- unwilligness, even -- to adapt to the realities of globalization, wealth inequality, and even cultural dislocation. Call them Ted Olson conservatives. In theory, they might be Mitt Romney conservatives.
They care about social issues; their political identiies derive from and are not nourished by them.
The entire political world is betting on the probability that once conservative voters know about Giuliani's social positions, they'll desert him in favor of someone who is more orthodox. It's an assumption with some grounding in the history of Republican nomination fights.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between. Certainly, some conservatives will abandon Rudy once they hear him affirm that he is pro-choice. Some won't, if they're comfortable that Giuliani won't rock the boat on judges and won't, as part of his governing agenda, tinker with the Hyde amendment. (See the YouTube video below if you want a sense of just how difficult it might for Giuliani to finesse these issues.)
In a field crowded with heavyweights, the winner of the Iowa caucus could skate by with less than 40 percent of the vote. And there's no one -- no one -- in politics now who doesn't think that Giuliani wouldn't be competitive in New Jersey or California or Florida -- primaries near enough to Iowa to catch some of its momentum.
The point is: the conventional wisdom about whether Giuliani can win the nomination ought to change. Of course he can.
1. Sen. Barack Obama, speaking in a fairly impoverished Cleveland, saying he wants "everybody here to pony up five dollars, ten dollars for this campaign. I don't care how poor you are, you've got five dollars."
2. An anti-Giuliani video, just in time for CPAC. The greatest hits, from partial birth abortion, to immigration, to domestic partnerships, to the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy," to McCain-Feingold....
TV last night was mostly about the weather and the continued controversy over conditions at Walter Reed. There was some talk about John McCain but very little about his "wasted" comment -- especially when compared to how much press Barack Obama got over his. All reports noted Obama's defense of McCain:
CNN's Bash: "Barack Obama may seem an unlikely McCain sympathizer, but he's still smarting from having to apologize for saying virtually the same thing as he launched his presidential campaign last month" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 3/1)
But most of the McCain talk was about his skipping the CPAC conference:
FNC's Cameron: "The morning after McCain's 'Late Show' appearance, an attendance sheet surfaced at C-PAC, noting that he also skipped recent conservative conferences by the National Review and the Heritage Foundation, but made it to late-night television" ("Special Report," 3/1)
Washington Post's Robinson: "I don't really understand the benefit of not going to C-PAC for McCain" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 3/1).
FNC's Kondracke: "The explanation that I get from the McCain people is that this particular one, the CPAC, they don't regard it as representative of the grassroots Conservatives all around the country. They think that it's a bunch of Washington insiders who have organized this thing and they don't think that McCain has to go" ("Special Report," 3/1).
And someone is not happy with McCain:
FNC's O'Reilly, on McCain: "His staff is extremely nasty to my staff. And there's no reason to be. This is crazy. We're the most powerful cable news program in the country and we have 400 radio stations. And, I mean, these people go out of their way to be nasty to us" ("O'Reilly Factor," 3/1).
NO D-DAY TODAY
MSNBC's Shuster: "Seven days of deliberations, and they have not reached a verdict. But there's also no indication that the jury is stuck. They are not brought into court each day ... but they were this afternoon so that the judge could tell the jury that he was agreeing with their request in a note that they be dismissed tomorrow at 2:00 o'clock and resume their deliberations on Monday, an indication to the judge that they will not be reaching a verdict this week" ("Hardball," 3/1). [EMILY GOODIN]
It wasn't Sen. John McCain's day. It wasn't the McCain warroom's day. It's a day for a 10pm tonic and gin.
In order of importance:
1. The curve ball: Rick Santorum blasts McCain's pro-life credentials and says he'd vote for ABC -- anyone but McCain. A McCain spokesman -- Danny Diaz -- does his darndest, and no one in McCain's world is surprised that Santorum doesn't like their candidate, but it's not pleasant, all the same.
2. An unforced error: McCain stepped on his own presidential announcement and the AP's lead beat reporter on the Republican frontrunners, Liz Sidoti, wrote the Day One story on his comments. In the end, no one will remember this, but it's still not good.
3. Boos: Time finds that ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani is quite a bit more popular nationally than Sen. McCain -- and even five points more popular in the West.
No wonder Clinton and McCain face base rebellions; those voters feel abandoned. And judging from the National Journal's new composite scores of cong. vote ratings, they may have good reason. Not only are Clinton and McCain the most moderate members of cong. in the WH '08 race, but they've each made sharp swerves to the center at decisive points in the past few years.
-- Clinton, for example, once voted solidly with the left, ranking among the most liberal sens in '01 and '02. Since '04, she has moved notably to the right, esp on economic and foreign issues. While her lifetime average is still slightly left of Biden, she's now the 32nd most liberal; Obama is the 10th, even farther left than Kucinich (although the OHan's rating has surged since '98).
-- Same story for McCain, who ranked among the most conservative sens during his first 8 years. Starting with the GOP takeover in '95, however, and continuing through the Bush years, McCain has moved steadily to the middle (in '04, McCain, Chafee and Snowe were the most liberal GOPers). He now ranks as the 46th most conservative sen.
People close to former New York Gov. George Pataki insist that he is still considering a run for the presidency, even though he is lagging behind a crowded Republican field. "There are so many candidates," says a friend who dined with him last week. "He just wants to not jump in right now."
Pataki raised $350,000 at a fund-raiser last week for his 21st Century Freedom PAC. The former governor has changed tactics since early February, when he released his New Hampshire campaign staff and supporters, says the friend, adding, "He's observing and traveling and working on policy, not politics." Pataki has set himself apart from the GOP field by criticizing the president's plan for troop build-up in Iraq.
One school of thought is that Pataki is waiting for Rudy Giuliani to implode. With the former New York City mayor in the race, Pataki will always be the second-best New York hero of Sept. 11. Giuliani has a number of enemies working to unearth new scandals. Rivals are betting that he will not survive the money primary at the end of this month.
Another possibility is that Pataki loyalists are talking up a presidential run while he transitions to a rumored new career as a consultant on environmental issues. Pataki has been speaking around the country on climate change and alternative energy.
Arthur Finkelstein is advising Pataki, along with a handful of people from his administration: Zenia Mucha, Walt Breakell, Rob Cole, Charlie Gargano, David Catalfamo, Kieran Mahoney and Cathy Blaney. [ANNE MICHAUD]
Anne Michaud is the editor of the Crain's Insider political newsletter based in New York City.
Update: the Boston Globe reports that Pataki has cancelled his NH appearance planned for tonight.
“Last evening, I referred to American casualties in Iraq as wasted. I should have used the word, sacrificed, as I have in the past. No one appreciates and honors more than I do the selfless patriotism of American servicemen and women in the Iraq War. We owe them a debt we can never fully repay. And America’s leaders owe them, as well as the American people, our best judgment and honest appraisal of the progress of the war, in which they continue to sacrifice.
“As I have said many times, I believe we have made many mistakes in the prosecution of the war. With a new Commanding General and a new strategy, we are now trying to correct those mistakes, and I believe we have a realistic chance to succeed.
“That does not change the fact, however, that we have made many mistakes in the past, and we have paid a grievous price for those mistakes in the lives of the men and women who have died to protect our interests in Iraq and defend the rest of us from the even greater threat we would face if we are defeated there.”
The Nat'l Cable Comm. (NCC) is in the midst of presenting materials about Video On Demand (VOD) to the WH, political parties, the Congress, and a broad range of public interest groups, as a new means of enhanced constituent communications. Its pitch? VOD provides a 24/7 opportunity to hear directly and "in person" from a candidate, public official or group.
Owned by Comcast, Cox and Time Warner, the NCC is the spot cable sales rep for "virtually" every cable system in the country's 210 markets. Past VOD endeavors have included Time Warner's cable system in the Lincoln, NE, media market allowing voters to watch the debates between candidates running for the state legislature, Treas. and Sec/State free of charge and on their own time prior to '06 state primary. Moreover, Comcast created "Candidates on Demand" for the '04 CO SEN race and the '05 NJ GOV races.
NCC VP of Political Marketing Bob Carlstrom believes giving Americans more access to the gov't and public interest groups serves as a significant public good during such "seminal times." He adds that VOD is "defining the future of TV" and is "the ultimate in consumer choice." [KATHERINE LEHR]
The nat'l economy will inevitably play a larger role in the WH'08 race than it has so far. And for almost every major candidate, that's good news, writes Hotline senior editor John Mercurio in a new PolitiScope.
NPR "political junkie" Rudin was queried about ex-mayors running for pres. He writes: "Nearly every former mayor I can recall who sought the presidency had served in other offices," e.g. Pete Wilson (R-CA), Dick Lugar (R-IN), Hubert Humphrey (D-MN). "Perhaps the person who best fits" the category is then-Irvine, CA, Mayor Larry Agran's (D) "largely unnoticed" '92 WH bid. Two sitting mayors did run in '72: L.A.'s Sam Yorty (D) and NYC's John Lindsay (D). "But both were members of the House prior to their tenure in City Hall, and both failed at bids for statewide office." Only 3 ex-mayors ever made it to the WH: Andrew Johnson (Greenville, TN), Grover Cleveland (Buffalo, NY) and Calvin Coolidge (Northampton, MA).
They've chosen Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) to deliver the keynote address at CPAC's Ronald Reagan banquet 3/2. Does Pence, a former Republican Study Cmte chair, harbor any presidential ambitions? There's already a grassroots website set up to tout him.
Through a spokesman, Pence told us that he thinks about running for POTUS "no more and no less than any other kid who grew up in the Midwest with a cornfield in his backyard."
Asked to elaborate, Pence spokesman Matt Lloyd was more clear: "Congressman Pence has not ruled out a run in the near term or the long term." In other words: Pence is quite comfortable with the buzz. [MARC AMBINDER]
On the issue of abortion, Simon focused on Giuliani’s recent comments on judges. When pressed — what is a pro-lifer like Simon doing flacking for an abortion-rights advocate? — and asked if he had any assurance that Giuliani wouldn’t support taxpayer-funded abortion as president, Simon told National Review Online, “I have an assurance that he is in favor of the Hyde amendment” (which forbids such taxpayer subsidies).
Update: A Giuliani spokesperson clarifies for the Hotline: "It's not a change of position. The Hyde Amendment is a current law and, as such, he respects it."
So: Giuliani would not work to change it -- he doesn't neccessarily support it -- but his agenda for governing does not include any changes to the law as it's currently enforced.
By most measures, tonight’s Spartanburg County GOP WH ’08 straw poll is not a big deal, despite being the first of its kind in South Carolina. Party leadership expects between 1200 and 1500 to show up tonight (what one local activist called “the core of the base”), but that only boils down to a handful of people at each of Spartanburg County’s 92 participating precincts. Nonetheless six campaigns have sent out mailers, some have bought advertisements, and others have sent campaign staff to the area in preparation for tonight’s event.
So what would make news at tonight’s straw poll?
-If McCain comes in third or below: Talk about great expectations, especially in this state.
-Same for Giuliani. If he comes in third or below with his high name ID, they maybe southern conservatives aren’t willing to overlook America’s Mayor’s social positions.
-If Romney comes in first, then it might be proof that conservatives in this area are buying his shtick.
-If any of the lesser known’s (Cox, Hunter, even Brownback) take the whole thing.
After the jump, check out the South Carolina ground game of the six campaigns that are making an effort tonight. Results will be carried lived on Fox News at 9 PM [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].
Lynn Sweet has the scoop about Sen. Barack Obama's Israel speech this Friday.
In 11 days, AIPAC hosts its annual policy conference in DC. The speakers are tbd... but
We hear that Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Obama, Sen. Joe Biden and others will host private receptions after a banquet dinner on 3/12. About half of Congress is expected to show up, too.
Buzz Story One: On the eve of CPAC, National Review urges conservatives to take a fresh look at Sen. John McCain. Writes Ramesh Ponnuru: :McCain’s apostasies from conservatism, unlike Giuliani’s, are well known. The mayor’s polls form a ceiling. McCain’s could be a floor, if conservatives are willing to reconsider their view of him. If they do, then the current Giuliani moment will be succeeded by a McCain moment. I think conservatives will give him a second look — as they should." (no link yet)
Buzz Story Two: Obama "on Friday will call for tougher Iran sanctions, more bilateral diplomacy and declare he is for leaving all military options on the table" (Chicago Sun-Times).
Memeorandum: Breaking: Video: McCain tells Letterman he's in
Editor’s Choice:Arthur Schlesinger, Historian Of Power, Dies At 89
The Note:'s Insight of the Morning: ."Also, Note readers who are men and women of the world will ask themselves which is more likely: that Ben Smith took time out from his family, blogging, and covering events to meticulously gather all this judicial research on his own, or someone (a/k/a: "the Romney or McCain campaign") delivered all this to him in a nice, tight little package?"
You might have missed: Romney, lashing Giuliani for being pro-choice and anti-gun, to CBN's David Brody.
Thought of the day:Letterman's Paul Schieffer, on McCain: "He's doing the formal announcement on Leno" ("Late Show").
1. Every major Republican presidential candidate sans John McCain. (McCain hasn't attended a CPAC event in... at least nine years, according to Ian Walters, a CPAC legend who has staffed the convention for... nine years.) Still, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) will speak on Saturday, and he's just about the best McCain surrogate we can imagine. If McCain went to CPAC, the MSM would say he's pandering. Hugh Hewitt would say he's pandering. CPACers aren't McCain Republicans -- it's just a fact of life that McCain's campaign accepts.
2. The exhibition booths and the 100+ co-sponsors. Free literature, free notepads and free pens. Also: a good way to take the temp of the Conservative Movement.
3. The CPAC straw poll is kind of frustrating. Participants are asked to guess the next nominee -- as in, "Who do you think will be the Republican nominee?" They don't get to register their preferences. At most, then, the CPAC results can be read as an expectations barometer. Nonetheless, a few candidates (Romney included) are bussing in supporters.
4. The Hillary-hating. How many exhibitors will feature anti-Hillary goods? Will any other Democratic candidate be so honored?
5. The grumbling: why hasn't President Bush ever graced CPAC?
6. The more than 3500 young Republicans who take over the Omni Shoreham. They drink and smoke -- the older ones, anyway. They're fun to be around, regardless of your political or professional persuasion. Think YearlyKos for the conservative mindset.
TV last night again focused on the Dow and Iraq so we'll focus on the big news of the night, John McCain's announcement on the "Late Show":
David Letterman: "You had a birthday."
McCain: "Tragically."
Letterman: "It was a landmark, one of the big birthdays. ... 70 years old."
McCain: "Do we have to talk about that?"
Letterman: "Sorry. ... How did you commemorate that day?"
McCain: "Cried."
Letterman: "Here's what we really want -- presidential campaign gossip and dirt and backstabbing."
Letterman than asked about Sens. Clinton and Obama fighting over Hollywood money, McCain: "I've never had to worry too much about that myself."
Letterman: "Are you running? Are you going to announce that you're running?"
McCain: "The last time we were on this program, I'm sure you remember everything very clearly --"
Letterman: "Yes."
McCain: "You asked me if I would come back on the show if I was going to announce. I am announcing that I will be a candidate for president of the United States."
Asked why he's running, McCain: "It's a reason to be on this show."
Letterman: "It's nice to know your priorities are in the right spot."
McCain: "By the way I'll be making a formal announcement in April."
Letterman: "This was not the formal announcement?"
McCain: "You drag this out as long as you can. You don't just have one. ... This is the announcement preceding the formal announcement."
Letterman: "How do you think that makes me feel?"
Paul Schieffer: "He's doing the formal announcement on Leno."
Asked about Giuliani, McCain: "He's an American hero. ... I think he's going to be a very formidable candidate."
Asked about the VP slot: "You may remember that in the last election there was some conservation about me being vice president of the United States -- it wasn't clear which party -- and I was on one of the shows and the guy said what's this about you being vice president and I said 'You know, I spent all those years in a North Vietnamese prison camp, kept in the dark, fed scraps, why the heck would I want to do that all over again?" [EMILY GOODIN]
Contributing Editors: John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Tim Sahd, Maura O'Brien, and Abby Livingston
Contributing Writers: Holly Noe, Ian Faerstein, Rachelle Douillard-Proulx, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez
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