2008 Weekly Race Rankings: The Republicans
It's been as tumultuous a two-week period as the Republican field has had to date. Everyone has had some incredible ups and downs. Mitt Romney seemed on the verge of being in serious trouble and, then, voila, he pulls off a needed solid CPAC performance (even if it took some ballot stuffing). Rudy Giuliani had a great 10 days but the last few haven't been so hot. John McCain's "Letterman" performance was OK, although he did create himself a mini-distraction. All in all, it was a very lively EKG for the GOP field.
This week we have yet another fun twist: an Iowa ranking, which shows where each candidate would score on a list that only applied to the first primary state.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
REPUBLICANS
1. John McCain, Arizona senator Last Ranking: 1
He'll spend about 90 percent of March out of Washington. And when McCain is outside Washington, good things happen. He's still an excellent retail politician. Why is he the front-runner despite the polls? We look at history, state organization, financial strength, message, the role of the media and issues -- the whole gamut. McCain's still got the edge. Fundraising projection: $20 million, +/- $7 million. Iowa ranking: 2.5 (his organization is good but it is still a very dangerous state for him).
2. Rudy Giuliani Former New York City mayor -- Last Ranking: 2
He leads all the polls, has breathtaking fav/unfavs and has a talented if overworked team. But is his image immune to lightning strikes? The Andrew Giuliani story, which cuts at the heart of his appeal -- his character -- wasn't generated by his opponents. His family troubles might be the super-strong gust of wind that blows him off his moorings. Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $6 million. Iowa ranking: 2.5. There's no "there" there yet.
3. Mitt Romney Former Massachusetts governor Last Ranking: 3
We're waiting for the executive, can-do Romney to emerge. He's due for a round of good press, and that's where wife Ann comes in. Her "I'm his only wife" line is (a) true, (b) a self-effacing reference to Mormonism, and (c) probably annoying the heck out of Rudy. Ann brings out the best in her husband, and aides say she cheers him up on the trail. Fundraising projection: $25 million, +/- $6 million (he could outraise McCain this quarter). Iowa ranking: 1 or 2. Almanac Profile
4. No One
Has there ever been a bigger gap between the first tier and the second tier?
Continue reading our weekly race rankings. [CHUCK TODD and MARC AMBINDER]
Ranking Duncan Hunter at 11 and falling? He was a dozen votes from winning the Spartanburg straw poll last week... though he did announce his bid there.
Immigration, trade with China, supporting the war, son was in Fallujah. abortion. On all the issues he is with the conservative base. No other candidate comes close.
Yeah the bused-in CPAC crowd is pro free trade and immigration 'reform' so they would never go for Hunter.
Duncan could easily go top three in Iowa, NH and SC.
Just hope he isn't riding around in the Dukester... but the recent USAO firing shows somebody is looking out.
He should be no lower than 7 at this point. Huckabee's a joke so make it number 6.
Wouldn't Ann Romney's line also be annoying to McCain, who also is divorced?
If you're looking for blog commentary on McCain, check out www.blog4mccain.com.
I'd say #4 (No One) is really a holding place for Fred Thompson.
REMEMBER - You can only vote for your candidate in the primary if you are registered for that party!! I didn't know that last name & was not able to vote for the one I wanted!