Spotlight: John McKerry?
Today's Hotline Spotlight:
Is John McCain the John Kerry of '08? If so, is that a good or bad thing?
-- The presumptive frontrunner due to establishment backing, superior org. and a "war hero" persona, Kerry ambled through '03 with limp support from Dem activists. Questions about his liberal creds paved the way for Howard Dean on the Left. Four years later, another war hero can't catch fire with his party's base. Questions about his conservative creds have opened the door for Romney and Giuliani on the Right.
-- In IA, Kerry proved that org. and the establishment matter. Can McCain, now 20 points down, do the same? Their landscapes are similar: Both face younger, charismatic rivals (Edwards/Romney) and NE moderates who draw surprising support from party wings that stem from hot-button issues (Dean & gay marriage/Giuliani & 9/11). All 4 rivals share one quality: far less experience than McCain/Kerry in public office, or on the trail, two key factors in the first wide-open WH race since 9/11.
-- Ultimately, '04 Dem primary voters chose experience and (what they thought was) electability. Can McCain mirror Kerry's primary success, but avoid his general-election fate?
Howard Dean won statewide election five times in Vermont - he wasn't exactly a political newcomer. I guess Vermont is the size of one congressional district though. :-)
"In IA, Kerry proved that org. and the establishment matter."
Huh? Shortly before the '04 Iowa caucus, the conventional wisdom was that Dean and Gephardt would likely place first and second because *they* were the ones with the best organizations. By that time, the party establishment was largely coalescing around Dean because they thought his nomination was inevitable. Meanwhile, Gephardt had heavy backing from organized labor, so that's where his organization came from.
Dean's collapse in Iowa seemed to come about because of a series of gaffes by his campaign and last minute doubts about his electability. Kerry, who had been the frontrunner about six months earlier, was now the underdog with momentum, and his victory definitely did not show that money and organization wins Iowa. If anything, it showed the opposite:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A33734-2004Jan20?language=printer
Electability has more to do with the basics. Kerry's own primary campaign was tough, loyal and wanted the win. Going national and relying on staff from losing campaigns, a Democratic party that is not unified or waiting for their own next election loyalties, could not close the deal, watch his back, or protect the vote.
The Democrats will win only if they face realities of what a national campaign requires.
Um i was one of Kerry's staffers in Iowa and trust me when I say it was all about organization. Dean's Iowa opperation was a perfect storm of how not to run a campaign.
Gephy was never going to place more than 4th. Dean had a lock on 2nd in December but lost it to the undecided vote to Edwards.
The point here is how out of touch the media is.