April 2007

The latest Charlie Cook/RT Strategies poll shows a statistically significant narrowing of Hlilary Clinton's lead, and decline in Rudy Giuliani's margin over John McCain.

Barack Obama released more than a dozen South Carolina endorsement today, including Phil Noble, the pres of the SC branch of the DLC, ex-Senate candidate Inez Tennenbaum, and ex-SC Dem chair Dick Harpootlian. Remember that Mr. Harpootlian was a fan of Mark Warner's before it was cool to be a fan of Mark Warner's.

Newt Gingrich and Chuck Hagel are two-non candidates, and yet they were the first Republicans to attend an executive meeting of the powerful Service Employees International Union today.

Here's a balanced look at Rudy and gays.

By the time we get your letter, will Renzi be gone? And when will Bloomberg just cut the coyness already? All this and more in this week's mailbag...

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

ORANGEBURG, SC -- Outgoing SC Chair Joe Erwin was peppered with praise at the Dems' dinner. One of the most interesting accolades: On a tribute video, played at the dinner, Chris Dodd noted that Erwin would make a “great Governor” [NORA McALVANAH].

ORANGEBURG, SC -- A day after their debate, the Dem candidates gathered at the Columbia Convention center ballroom on Friday night for the party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. The candidates were placed strategically at separate tables, and entered the dinner -- entourage in tow -- at separate times. Hillary Clinton entered the dinner with the largest throng of cameras and reporters, who eventually thinned out as she ate.

She chewed her chicken, as she does everything else, meticulously. Mouth closed, bite by bite, Clinton had trouble making her way through her meal, as she was interrupted by diners. She called someone’s mom on a cell phone, she posed for pictures, and she shook hands. On the other side of the room, Bill Richardson sat with his arms crossed, starring over at the crowd gathering around Clinton.

Harold Ford Jr. was the keynote speaker for the dinner, where he gave a rousing speech on the strength of the Dems' ‘08 field. What he choose to highlight about each candidate served as a telling assessment of the field. He called Joe Biden a great diplomat and said that if GOPers want Hillary, “they must not be very smart.” Ford said Dodd had a “great understanding of how markets work;” and noted that Richardson” supports guns like me. “

Interestingly, he didn’t mention Barack Obama and John Edwards directly --although he briefly mentioned them later at the end of his speech [NORA McALVANAH].

Some more round-up from the Hotline's Nora McAlvanah, in SC over the weekend: Amidst a crowd clutching fried whiting on white bread, boxed wine in plastic cups, and cans of Budweiser-- Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson made their way to a small stage. The candidates, like many before them, were getting ready to address Rep. Jim Clyburn's annual fish-fry.

Part street party and part political rally, the event was started in '92 by Clyburn for Dems who couldn't afford tickets to the party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner held earlier in the evening.

“I have been all over the world, I’ve been to all kinds of political events,” Clinton yelled to the crowd, her voice slightly hoarse, “I can honestly say I’ve never seen anything like Jim Clyburn’s fish fry in the world.”

This year, in particular, Clyburn’s fish-fry was something to see. Over 2,000 people packed themselves into a parking garage in downtown Columbia in hopes of getting a glimpse of the candidates. The press crowded themselves onto risers just to watch the people watch the candidates.

But for all the hoopla, the event has retained its original purpose: it’s a community meet-up, a street-fair, an exercise in political access. It’s loud, it’s hot and it’s free.

Well aware of the spectacle, the candidates tried to bring a little something extra. Edwards arrived with a high school drum line to escort him into the show, Obama took off his jacket and rolled up his sleeves, Biden virtually closed up the event, shaking hands till 11:00 p.m.

The mood was informal and collegial, with the candidates clapping for each other as they addressed the crowd. Biden spoke first and was notably brief. “I love all these folks I'm running with, but I'm coming for every one of you. I ain't giving up on any of you.” Like Biden, Dodd kept his remarks short and sweet.

Richardson talked about the importance of education, and said, "Let's also not forget the genocide in Darfur." Edwards then spoke about the Civil Rights movement. Momentum building, Clyburn introduced Clinton and then Obama, who both took bites from their stumps.

Off to the side, children wove between their parents. Sitting in a folding chair a grandmother cradled an infant. Her daughter, she said, was off trying to get a picture of Obama on her cell phone.

From today's Hotline:

"George Tenet will have to explain why he waited this long to speak out and why he took the Medal of Freedom."

-- Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), "Late Edition," CNN, 4/29

Short answer: Maybe.

Ryan Sager is the author of a very admiring, very intelligent book about Republicans, and it silently argues for a Giuliani nomination. One can read the disappointment -- discovering a deity is human, almost -- in his choice of adjective. He uses the word "startling." Here's the rub:

On a February 2004 edition of Fox News's "The O'Reilly Factor," Mr. Giuliani told Bill O'Reilly, when asked if he supported gay marriage, "I'm in favor of … civil unions." He also said, "Marriage should be reserved for a man and a woman."

Asked by Mr. O'Reilly in the interview how he would respond to gay Americans who said being denied access to the institution of marriage violated their rights, Mr. Giuliani said: "That's why you have civil partnerships. So now you have a civil partnership, domestic partnership, civil union, whatever you want to call it, and that takes care of the imbalance, the discrimination, which we shouldn't have."

The charitable explanation is that Giuliani was confused in 2004. Civil unions, you'll recall, barely existed when Giuliani left the mayoralty. The government of Vermont coined the term to refer to a marriage-equivalent arrangement tasked to the state (and Gov.Howard Dean) to create. Actually, the court gave the government two options: marriage, or something like marriage but not called marriage. So -- "Civil Unions" went into effect in mid-2000.

Giuliani had no occasion to consider the merits of civil unions. As mayor he signed domestic partnerships into law. These grant to couples most of the same rights conferred upon married couples in a particular jurisidction. Of course, there are many rights that New York State confers on married couples -- rights Giuliani could not extend to gays. And gay couples do not find their unions recognized, sanctioned or in any way affirmed by federal law.

What's the difference between civil unions and domestic partnerships? Well, civil unions refer to the specific arrangements created in Vermont and elsewhere, like in Connecticut. Domestic parternship laws belong to a much broader class and can confer many fewer rights. They are not specially assigned to gay people, although most partnership laws were passed for the benefit of gay people. Interestingly, though, the words that the Vermont Supreme Court used to refer to the marriage-like option it gave to the state: "domestic partnerships." So -- basically the same thing.

Maybe in 2004, Giuliani was refering to civil unions that were marriage-lite,instead of marriage-like. He seems to object to New Hampshire's law because it is marriage under a different name -- "spousal unions" in this case.

USA Today picks up on the official Giuliani campaign website pronouncement:

Rudy Giuliani believes marriage is between a man and a woman. He does not -- and has never -- supported gay marriage. But he believes in equal rights under law for all Americans. That's why he supports domestic partnerships that provide stability for committed partners in important legal and personal matters, while preserving the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.

That's a terribly pregnant statement. One can read the "never" parenthetical as a "perish-the-thought" aside. But legitimately, many Giuliani opponents assume he has favored gay marriage. He has not and does not. The paragraph does not mention gay people, and technically, as mentioned, there is no need for such partnerships to be for gay couples. But, really, people aren't dense. They understand what this means.

Giuliani likes gay people. He bunked with a domestically partnered man in the months after a divorce and presumably came to the view that the love between those two men was a good thing. His opponents, eager to paint him as gay-friendly (and one can, again, potentially question the ethics of that), have reams of direct evidence that Giuliani is comfortable with the notion that gay people are fledged members of society and ought not to be shunned, or suffer from job discrimination, or be able to be fired because they are gay.

Has Giuliani decided to pick on gay people in order to pander to those religious conservatives who strongly object to the notion that gay people are normal and should be welcomed in society?

The follow up questions for Mr. Giuliani: -- what rights should straight people have that gay people shouldn't? How much lighter do civil unions have to get before Giuliani believes they can be applied to gay people?

Perhaps Giuliani's staff didn't realize that their boss was contradicting himself. Or maybe they believe that, because he could never contradict himself, the O'Reilly transcript is wrong. Or maybe Giuliani has, over the past three years, engaged in a bit of silent soul searching on the issue of whether gay people should benefit from the joys and privileges of the union he now shares with Judith Guiliani.

Giuliani will be asked to talk about gay rights again. His answer(s) may answer some of these questions. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Invisible border wall nearing reality

Capitol Fax-- More trouble for the GRT

Colorado Pols-- Monday Open Thread

Doc's Political Parlor-- Jeffco corruption not creating outrage

Georgia Political Digest-- Follow the money

Iowa Politics-- Senate approves incentives to lure Google

JohnCombest.com -- Leaked Obama memo: caution regarding Clay, Carnahan campaign roles

NhNewslinks.com -- Delegation urges Lynch to upgrade power transmission lines

Quorum Report -- House to consider Indian casinos bill

Sayfie's Review -- Lawmakers have a lengthy to-do list

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Thompson rally in Cookeville draws 300

WisPolitics.com-- Animal disease study lab opposed in Dunn

Obama spokesman Bill Burton talks. Ben Smith of the Politico listens.

This man is the one Kucinich supporter we saw.

John and Cindy McCain.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama won't commit to the first Democratic debate in New Hampshire in early June.

Their excuse: the debate isn't party-sanctioned.

Last night, we asked DNC executive director Tom McMahon if there was any way the party would endorse the New Hampshire debate?

"Our debates start in July."

Period?

"Yes."

So -- barring a miracle, don't expect to see Clinton or Obama in New Hampshire.

From today's Hotline:

"A child conceived last night would be a month old before the people of South Carolina got to vote in their primary."

-- CBS's Jeff Greenfield, "Early Show," 4/27

From an e-mail:

I have some very exciting news to share – presidential contenders Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama will be joining us at Pentecost 2007: Taking the Vision to the Streets, June 3-6 in Washington, D.C.!

Our nationally televised presidential candidates forum will be the first to focus exclusively on faith, values, and poverty. We'll be asking candidates the important questions – and you can be there in person.

Register for Pentecost today, and you'll be guaranteed a seat as Clinton, Edwards, and Obama discuss the issues that matter most to you.

Seating will be limited - but if you register right now, we'll make sure you get a chance to see the presidential candidates live and in person. After May 4, registration costs will go up, housing may be full, and we may run out of space at the forum.

You won't want to miss the presidential candidates forum or the rest of Pentecost 2007, which will be packed with captivating speakers, inspiring worship, prophetic advocacy, and hands-on training. Speakers confirmed so far include Brian McLaren, Shane Claiborne, Rev. Freddie Haynes, Rev. Sam Rodriguez, Marshall Ganz, Jennifer Kottler, Peggy Flanagan, Gary Haugen, Romal Tune, Adam Taylor, and many more. Both Republican and Democratic leaders will join us for our Capitol Hill reception on Tuesday night.

Click here to learn more and register for Pentecost 2007 – where we'll take the vision to the streets!

Since candidates aren't doing bipartisan events at this point, we're planning to invite Republican candidates to a similar forum later this year. Don't miss this opportunity to be a part of history in the making, as we challenge presidential aspirants and other political leaders – Republicans and Democrats alike – to put poverty at the top of the national agenda.

I hope to see you there.

Blessings,

Jim Wallis

Sen. John McCain joked yesterday that South Carolina Republican Party chairman Katon Dawson "extorted" $25,000 from his presidential campaign. Technically, that's the price of entry. The state pays for its own primary. Or it did.

This week, the South Carolina state senate approved a $7.2B budget for fiscal year 2008. Included among the line items: money to fund the '08 Republican and Democratic primaries. Gov. Mark Sanford (R) might veto the budget, and the Senate will probably override its veto.

So - the state parties can set any primary date they want. And the state will pay for it. One caveat: the state will also supervise the election, which means that shenanigans will be harder to pull off.

The parties don't have to schedule their primaries on the same day. And they've both sent signals that they're itching to move up their dates. Right now, the Democrats are scheduled for 1/29. The Republicans are scheduled for 2/2. Privately, party insiders predict that both parties could hold their primaries as early as January 15.

And why not?

Neither party cares about delegates. And all the candidates will participate. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Public not entitled to all officials' records

Capitol Fax-- Smoking ban edges closer to passage

Colorado Pols-- Colorado Supremes punt amendment 41

Doc's Political Parlor-- Boon or Bane?

Georgia Political Digest-- NAACP leader criticizes Brown

Iowa Politics-- Iraq war dominates presidential debate

JohnCombest.com -- House Speaker Rod Jetton: Romney consultant?

NhNewslinks.com -- Civil unions OK'd

Quorum Report -- State lawmakers criticizes border police chiefs

Sayfie's Review -- Law would make lying illegal for legislators

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Ford jurors in third day

WisPolitics.com-- Ziegler seeks to block Ethics Board complaint

The format, in which candidates were limited to 60-second answers and not allowed to engage each other, kept the debate civil. The night's only real exchange came when Dennis Kucinich challenged Barack Obama for saying, once, that all options were on the table with respect to Iran, charging "You're setting the stage for another war."

Standing, from left to right, were Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson. In the spin room, Biden's political director Danny O'Brien seemed pleased with Biden's center stage positioning. He said it was randomly determined before the debate. O'Brien: "When you're a second-tier candidate, you take what you can get."

The debate took place in SCSU's heavily guarded MLK Auditorium. Prior to going live, Brian Williams told the crowd he was trying to work on the temperature. But it only seemed get worse: on stage, Richardson, Edwards, and Obama were sweating and the program turned into a makeshift fan for many in the audience [NORA McALVANAH]

Our thoughts immediately after we exited the debate:

Bill Richardson : Has shined in these forums in the past- recall the DNC Winter meeting and Nevada cattle call. But he didn't live up to the expectations -- sweating, pacing, and, during some moments, talking to someone off stage.

John Edwards : Showed restraint last night. He's traditionally taken on the role of the aggressor, but last night he was reserved. He even waited till the second time he spoke to mention the mill. He also waited some time before he reminded everyone, "I was born here in South Carolina."

Hillary Clinton : Was wearing some serious bling, and she proved that she could pull it off. She seemed comfortable, polite and attentive. She has, of course, had plenty of time to perfect the stare-and-nod.

Barack Obama : Avoided looking at Hillary directly and thumbed through his note cards. This is where his inexperience shows the most: he was nervous.

Joe Biden: No one benefited more from their position, both literally and figuratively, during the night. The debate focused on Iraq, his forte, and he was dead center in the line-up. He also had the night's biggest laugh with his answer to the question of whether he could assure the public, that despite his reputation as too verbose, he could be disciplined. He answered simply: "Yes."

Mike Gravel: Was shifting his weight around. He served as the night's "woe is me" candidate, letting Brian Williams know he thought he was being slighted on time.

Dennis Kucinich: If he has an advisor, here's what she/he told him before the debate: Smile and look off into space. He showed good posture tonight. For someone as short as he is, the guy stands up pretty tall.

Chris Dodd: We barely knew ya. Still [NORA McALVANAH].

As expected, our inboxes were swarmed with spin. "THE REVIEWS ARE IN: HILLARY 'SUPERB,' 'STRONG,' 'VERY SOLID' IN FIRST DEBATE" ... "John Edwards: Winning the Issues Debate" ... "DODD DEMONSTRATES PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIP AT FIRST DEBATE" arrived in tandem last night. In reference to his highly-regarded one-liner, Biden's press release was titled simply "yes."

Interestingly, however, Bill Richardson's camp has stayed quiet today. Still, he wasn't entirely absent from our emails. Dodd's camp sent out a few releases devoted to the NM gov, one noting that Richardson said he was for instant background checks, but as a Member of Congress, he voted against the Brady Bill [NORA McALVANAH].

The first debate of the WH cycle was last night and MSNBC had full out coverage. CNN also touched on it but there was not a lot on FNC.

Of the '08ers only the top three -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards -- did not do interviews afterwards, sending campaign surrogates instead. Elizabeth Edwards was on "Hardball" pre-debate and "LKL" post-debate but Edwards may wish he had done some TV himself as he did not get a lot coverage in the post-debate analysis. In fact, at one point in the evening, after showing a clip of Edwards from the debate, MSNBC's Olbermann noted: "It's perhaps the first reference to the Edwards performance tonight in our coverage since the debate ended about an hour and 45 minutes ago."

Here are some more post-debate highlights:

MSNBC's Matthews: "It was civilized and therefore not that exciting" (4/26).

CNN's Crowley: "No blood spilled in this first of umpteen presidential debates. You had to listen hard for the low-impact jabs" ("AC 360," 4/26).

Dem strategist James Carville: "I don't think much happened. I don't think much change" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26).

Joe Biden, on his "yes" answer: "Well, look, I mean, how do you answer that question? The fact of the matter is, the American people are going to make a judgment, not the press, whether or not I talk too much or too little. And so I think it was the appropriate answer" (MSNBC, 4/26).

Bill Richardson: "I'm not a blow-dried candidate. I don't have a bunch of consultants. I speak from the heart. I also think I'm the most experienced candidate with the most foreign policy experience. I'm a governor. I've actually done all of the things they talked about in the debate" (MSNBC, 4/26).

More Richardson: "It seemed, at the beginning, that the top tier candidates, at least in the polls, were getting most of the questions. And I was a little frustrated because I wanted to answer so many" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26).

Dennis Kucinich: ""I was able to establish that you can't say you're a peace candidate and keep voting to fund a war" (MSNBC, 4/26).

Elizabeth Edwards, on Edwards: "I was very pleased tonight because he was able to express, albeit in those little, short one-minute answers, his ideas on health care, on the energy crisis, on global warming, on the war in Iraq."

On the $400 haircut: "We're pretty distressed that that bill didn't come to our house instead of the campaign" ("LKL," CNN, 4/26). [EMILY GOODIN]

Dennis Kucinich and his red-headed-amazon-wife were PDAing in the spin room, where she held his hand, affectionately pushed back his hair, and rubbed his back as he was answering questions [NORA McALVANAH]

Bill Richardson was noticeably uncomfortable throughout the debate, shifting, sweating, and, at times, starring off stage. In the spin room, Richardson looked equally haggard. "I want to leave now," he barked to his advisor, Mike Stratton. At least he didn't look at his watch on camera [NORA McALVANAH]

Republican Gov. Mark Sanford, a possible VP or even dark-horse WH candidate despite his protestations, joined Dems for their big night, sitting up front to watch the show. When asked his opinion on the night's stand-outs, hepassed. SC's the winner, he said diplomatically.

But perhaps all that playing nice with Dems has kept him away from his own party. When we asked him about John McCain's trip to SC this weekend, Sanford seemed confused: "To be honest, I didn't know he was here." [NORA McALVANAH]

The Hotline gave out the following awards for the night:

Comfortable in his/her own shows award: Hillary Clinton.
If you blinked you missed me award: Chris Dodd.
I came here with a lot of signs award: Barack Obama, although Hillary's a close second. (When we pulled up to the debate sight there was a virtual Obama vs. Hillary street war going on).
I only came here because everyone else did award: Bill Richardson. The guy just looked bored.
I love this Dasani water bottle the organizers gave me award: John Edwards. He was all about the H2O on his podium.
I flew in special from space just to be here award: tie: Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich.
I want to be VP award: Joe Biden. Unlikely, we know, but he chatted up Hillary before and after the debate and threw her the night's only candidate-to-candidate bone in the evening's closing statement [NORA McALVANAH]

It's the circle of life. Reporters ask campaign officials who won. Then campaign officials ask reporters who won. Then reporters tell other campaign officials about what they were told. Campaign officials tell campaign officials who tell reporters, and the circle is complete.

The collective perception of the national press corps will drive tomorrow's news coverage, and it seems as if the press, right now, has some ideas about Obama.

Either Obama did fine but not as fine as HRC and Edwards, "Obama O'Bombed," or Dennis Kucinich, by virtue of engaging Obama on terrorism, saved Obama from bombing. Granted, that spin is self-serving. Going into the debate, Obama was the night's biggest target, and the volleys continued in the spin room.

Everyone seemed to think that both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards acquitted themselves admirably, although there were a few mentions of Edwards's long pause before responding to the "moral leader" question, and a few counter-volleys about Hillary Clinton's alleged shrillness.

Everyone also seemed to think that Sen. Joe Biden distinguished himself from Sen. Chris Dodd and Gov. Bill Richardson. Not only did Biden have the best line of the night, he was able to show the television audience his good side.

One correction: Bill Richardson was the first candidate to mention Darfur; Biden was second.

And the Clinton campaign insisted to us that none of their supporters was paid for their efforts. No one received any money to attend on Clinton's behalf, two Clinton aides said. Rumors and and our one anecdote aside, we have no hard evidence that Clinton or her allies or consultants paid anyone.

--Still unknown: What constitutes success in Iraq for Edwards, Obama and Clinton.

--"Do you believe there is such a thing as a global war on terror?" Clinton, Obama and Edwards raise hands.

--Biden was the only candidate to mention Darfur

--Obama, potentially realizing that he might face some heat for his response to the question of what'd he do if two American cities were nuked, later clarified his response: "We have genuine enemies out there that have to be hunted down." There is "no contradiction" between using force "intelligently" and building alliances. Kucinich then noted that his statement was "provocative." Obama calls the idea of initiating a war with Iran "a profound mistake" but says "there is no contradiction taking us the seriously the need to want to strengthen our alliances around the world" but "if we have nuclear proliferators around the war," that is a "grave" threat. It was strong response.

--Edwards's efforts to draw out Clinton and Obama on specifics.

--Obama's refusal to answer the question of how he'd pay for his health care plan.

--Gravel's outrage over Congressional [in]action about Iraq.

--Richardson distinguishing himself from Biden and Dodd on Iraq.

--Obama will get props for bringing up black infant mortality rates

--Commentators will say that Edwards and Obama looked uncomfortable at times

--No one made any major errors. No one made any major advances.

--Gravel will get props for being himself.

From an Obama aide: It was a "Strong, commanding performance. The candidates agreed that this is a change election and he showed himself to be the strongest candidate for change."

From RNC chairman Mike Duncan:

“The Democrats’ performance in South Carolina could not have been more predictable. There is a reason the Democrats have failed to win South Carolina in a presidential election in the last 30 years. On every issue, from the War on Terror to keeping our taxes low and our economy strong, Democrats like Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and others are out of touch with the values of the people of South Carolina – and all of America.”

Edwards was asked to identify his moral leader. He paused for about seven seconds. Then: "I don't think I could identify just one person who could be his moral leader." He then identifies his Lord, his wife and his father.

Williams asks HRC: Overall, is Wal-Mart a good thing or bad thing for the United States of America? Clinton: "It's a mixed blessing. It brought goods intro rural Arkansas and gave people a chance to stretch the dollar further. As they grew much bigger, they have raised serious questions about ... [corporate] responsibility."

Biden is the first candidate to mention Darfur.

An e-mailer asks about the NAACP boycott. Biden cites James Clyburn. Says there's no reason not to honor students at this college.

Sen. Obama: "I think that the Confederate Flag should be put into a museum. But we've got an enormous debate that should be taking place right now." Mentions black mortality rates and poverty. As "Hillary mention earlier, this is going to be a change election."

The candidates are asked about their professional mistakes.

Gravel: "I won't hold their youth and inexperience against them."

Kucinich: "When I was mayor of Cleveland, on Good Friday, I fired the police chief live on the six o'clock news."

Clinton: "I don;t have enough time to tell you about all the mistakes I made in the past years." ... she cites health care and her believing Bush.

Obama: The Schiavo case. "Professionally, the biggest mistake I made was that when I first arrived in the Senate. A lot of us, including me, left the Senate with [legislation] that allowed Congress to intrude where it shouldn't have."

Biden: "Overestimating the competence of this administration and underestimating the arrogance."

Edwards: "I was wrong to vote for this war."

Dodd: "The war in Iraq was a huge mistake."

Richardson: "I'm impatient. I'm too aggressive."

------------

Clinton is asked whether she'd grant amnesty, against the wishes of the American people, to illegal immigrants. Clinton responds that she favors comprehensive immigration reform.

-----------

Obama is asked about his response to a hypothesized catastrophe. Two nukes. We're sure it's Al Q.

Obama: He'd make sure the recovery and response was solid. "What we can't do is then alienate the world community based on false intelligence based on bombast." He says he'd talk to the international community.

Edwards: "The first thing I would do is be certain I would know who is responsible, and I would act swiftly and strongly and hold them responsible for that."

Clinton: "Having been a senator during 9/11, I understand the horror ... of that attack. I think a president must move as swiftly as is prudent to retaliate. If we are attacked and we can determine who is behind that attack and if there were nations that supported or gave mateiral aid to those attack. I believe that we should quickly respond. But that doesn't mean we go quickly looking for other fights."

Same question of all the field:

Say a name or pass. The question is: your model Supreme Court justice.

Richardson: Justice Whizzer White. Or Justice Ginsberg.

Dodd: Ginsberg.

Edwards: Ginsberg or Breyer.

Clinton: did the government fail those students at Virginia Tech? Clinton: "Yes." "We now know that the background check system didn't work because this shooter... had been involuntarily committed but yet he could walk into a gun store and buy a gun."

Richardson, an NRA favorite, is asked about VA Tech: Expresses his condolances to those that perish. "You're right. I'm a Westerner. I'm the governor of New Mexico. But I want to state for the record that a vast vast majority of gun owners are law abiding." The issue is twofold: mental illness, and notes he favors instant background checks. He then calls for mental health parity.
--------------------

The Clinton campaign is blogging the debate.

The Dodd campaign warroom is live, too.

--------------------
Show of hands:

Gravel, Biden. Dodd, Kucinich, Richardson -- they've had a gun in their house. The rest haven't. Biden: "Shot gun, not pistol."
-------------------

Edwards is asked about which taxes he'd raise to pay for his health care plan. George W. Bush's, he says. And then he notes that he has a specific health care plan. "Rhetoric is not enough. High falooting language is not enough."

Obama is asked how he'd pay for his plan. Obama says there should be a national pool people can buy into if they don't have health insurance. Then -- he'd make sure that "we control costs." Then -- catastrophic insurance for those who can't afford it.

Obama did not answer the question.

Clinton: "All of the ideas that you are going to hear in this campaign" should be put out to the public for review. Clinton mentions that she put forth a plan with elements of what Obama and Edwards have proposed. First, she'd cut costs. She thinks she "we can save money into the existing system." She is "not ready to put new money" into the system.

Gravel says other candidates "scare" him. Especially the one that wants to nuke Iran. The "top tier" ones. And "Joe." Who "has a certain arrogance." The Iraqis "are asking us to leave." So "we should just leave."

Williams to Clinton: why does the majority of the public have an unfavorable view against you? She answers in reference to Republicans: "It may have something to do with the fact that I fight for what I believe in." The "country is ready for change. It is ready for universal health care policy." It is "ready to clean up the government."

Williams asks Edwards about abortion. Most Americans support the partial birth abortion ban. The Democrats don't support it. Why? Edwards: "This decision by the Supreme Court is a perfect example of what's at stake in this election." We "have to show respect for people who have different views."

Obama says that "most Americans recognize that this is a profoundly difficult issue." "When you describe a specific procedure that accounts for less than 1% of the abortions that take place, and people get concerned..."

Williams as Biden: as president, would he have a specific litmus test question on Roe v. Wade. He wouldn't have a specific question but wink wink that the folks he'd appoint would "share my values" and understand a "right to privacy." Biden supports the partial birth abortion ban, BTW.

Kucinich, asked about his standing in the polls, attacks Clinton and Edwards for "making the wrong" decision in '03.

Williams asks Biden about his mouth and his gaffe-machine-ness. Will he have the discipline he'd need on the world stage?

Biden's answer: "Yes."

That's it.

Press room laughs. Audience laughs. Williams moves on.

Richardson says if he were in Congress, he would not vote to fund the troops. He would withdraw "all of our troops" including residual troops by the end of '07.

Williams asks Dodd about the Feingold-Reid legislation. "Is that possible?" Dodd: "I believe it is, Brian."

Williams feels the need to introduce the country to Sen. Gravel. What's his advice for the rest of the non-Vietnam era field? Gravel: "First off, understand that this war was lost the day that George Bush invaded Iraq in a fraudulent basis." Gravel says he is embarrassed about Dems in Congress. Says he wants to sit down with Pelosi and Reid to pass a "law making it a felony to stay there." The press room titters.

An e-mailer asks Obama what his definition of a "mission complete" status is. Obama thanks the e-mailer's husband for his service and talks about the legislation he's proposed to increase the size of the ground forces. "We are one signature away or 16 votes away from ending this war. If the president is not going to sign the bill that has been sent to him, what we have to do is gather up 16 votes to override his veto." He praises the troops again.

Williams asks Clinton for a rebuttal. "I think what Barack says it right. I think our challenge is to put together the political support ... within the Republican Party... to [end] this war."

Williams promises to ask uncomfortable questions.

Obama: You've promised a new kind of politics, but just this week, the Resko story broke. Does Obama practice what he preaches? Obama: "We had thousands of donors. This donor engaged in some ethical [sic] behavior and we denounced it." He cites his record of bringing people together around this type of politics. He brags about not taking money from politics or federally registered lobbyists.

Edwards: You've spoken with great passion about poverty...his two America's themes... A Roger Simon quote is read. "The point is not the cost. But why did he pay for his hair cuts out of his campaign funds?" Edwards: "That was a mistake." He acknowledges that he lives a "blessed and privileged" lifestyle now. Yes, Edwards was a son of a mill worker. He vividly remembers his Dad after church, taking his whole family into a restaurant, and then his father realized he couldn't pay the prices that were on the menu and had to leave.

Williams asks Edwards about a hedge funds -- do they make America any better? Edwards: the financial markets are "an important component" of figuring out what America needs. Edwards thinks folks who work in financial markets can play a role.

Williams asks Clinton about hedge funds. Clinton: America "is a great country" because it is entrepreneurial and has "learned how to regulate" its great free markets. HRC notes that she represents NYC, the "global capital market leader" and a "big state where people have no access to health care."

Sorry MSNBC -- Clinton didn't take the bait.

Williams asks Richardson about his dawdling in calling for the Gonzales resignation. Cause he was Hispanic. Huh? Richardson: "That's how I felt, Brian." Richardson said he wanted to wait for Gonazles's testimony before he made up his mind. The American people "don't want blow dried candidates with perfection."

The press room titters.

Dodd is asked about his coziness with lobbyists. Dodd: "I am very proud to come from a family who served in public service."

Why did Williams not ask Clinton about her elephant? Inquiring opposing candidates (and this reporter) want to know.

Williams asks Clinton about Reid's "war is lost" comment. Does she agree? Clinton: "The American people have spoken. The Congress has voted as of today to end this war..." It's not clear whether Clinton agrees with Reid. "This is not America's war to win or lose." It is up to Iraq, she says, to "demonstrate that they are willing to .. make the sacrifice and compromise necessary to put together" a unity gov't and end the civil war.

Williams asks Biden the same question. Biden: "Look Brian, this is not a game show. This is not a football game. This is not win or lose." He transitions to the Iraq bill. Biden gets extra points for wearing roughly the same outfit as B.W.

Williams asks Obama, who called the war "dumb," voted for the approps, whether his words can square with those who have given sacrifice for the country. Obama: "I am proud that I opposed this war from the start." He transitions to the war. Obama brags that he is "proud to have put together a plan in January" that mimics what the Congress passed.

Williams asks Edwards whether his "leaders need to admit mistakes" rhetoric is a jab at his opponents. Edwards answers no, but he mentions Clinton specifically in his answer, and says it's up to her to look at her conscience. So -- yes.

Williams turns to Clinton for a response. Clinton: "I take resp. for my vote. Obv. I did as good a job I could at the time. It was a sincere vote based on the info available to me.... If I knew then what I know now..." But "the real question is what to we do now?" And she pivots into Bush's stubborness.

Williams, to Kucinich: Can one be against the war and still fund it? Softball! Kucinich home runs. "No." Kucinich cites his end-the-war bill.

We are watching the program feed from MSNBC. The director seems to be practicing his sweeps and swoops.

About 16 minutes before the debate, eight Democratic presidentials clad in nearly identical gray suits -- even Hillary Clinton -- stood and posed for pictures. Dennis Kucinich waved at someone -- probably his lovely wife. Obama and Hillary stood on opposite sides of the stage.

The candidates then moved to their respective lecterns. Obama's eyes remained on the crowd. Joe Biden concentrated on what seemed to be some notes. John Edwards looked slightly concerned about something. Mike Gravel joked with someone off-stage. Hillary Clinton seems poised.

Then Obama walked over to Edwards and began to chat. Hillary and Bill Richardson likewise.

Then Hillary walked over to Obama and she, Obama and Joe Biden said hello.

Brian Williams briefed the audience. "When we come on the air, I have to introduce these candidates. And the camera moves are arleady pre-planned and we really need to ask that you do something counterintuitive and not clap for all these perfectly nice honorable people who are running for ... president."

Williams confesses: "I'm getting a little itchy."

The first, with Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama.

The second, with Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson.

What Is To Be Done?

Barack Obama -- an adviser acknowledged to us that "Everyone is here to see whether he is what they think he is." In other words: the beef. Does Obama have it? Can he stand a stage next to Hillary Clinton and prove he is ready to be president? Also: he knows he's the star attraction, and he wants to frame the debate as much as possible. Also: he was the only guy who got Iraq right from the start.

Hillary Clinton -- an aide said that the campaign hoped that Clinton would demonstrate that she's the only person up there ready to be president from day one. She is bristling for attacks from her opponents. She has also never participated in a multi-candidate debate before.

John Edwards -- where Obama is the dreamer and Clinton is the thinker, Edwards wants to be the doer. He has solutions: for health care, for climate change, for Iraq. Also: does the moderator take Edwards as seriously as Obama and Clinton?

The rest of the joes want to get in good zingers. They have the least to lose, but if they lose it tonight, they'll be losers for good.

About a quarter mile from the Martlin Luther King theatre and temporary presidential debate studio site, MSNBC's Hardball erected a massive outdoor soundstage. The piazza in the background has become a gathering place for supporters of the candidates. These crowds are "built," in the argot of campaign science.

How?

1. Have the "it" candidate. Sen. Barack Obama's South Carolina staff has spent the last week corralling Obama supporters at nearby campuses. And -- how to say this -- South Carolina State University at Orangeburg is a majority African American campus. So it probably was not a huge challenge to turn out Obama supporters.

2. Pay them. The rumour du jour is that Hillary Clinton's campaign, or some consultant affiliated with the campaign, paid students at nearby Clafin College to come hold large "Clinton Country" signs. One Clinton sign-holder did indeed volunteer to us that she was being paid, but she wouldn't say by whom. A Clinton spokesman denies that the campaign has paid anyone to attend.

3. Bus them in. John Edwards did a bit of that, we're told. (Busing in, not paying). Edwards allies seemed to have arrived late. We caught Edwards's director of advance -- he's the guy with the telephone to his ear in the picture below -- telling the other end of the line that "We need more signs!". Indeed: Chris Matthews's first guest was Elizabeth Edwards. About two dozen Edwards supporters materialized a few minutes later, but they were too late: the only room for them was on the fringes of the piazza.

ORANGEBURG -- For some reason, field organizers from the campaigns of Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton decided to clad their supporters in dark blue shirts.

At the prompting of a camera operator from NBC News, this scene erupted:

There are no signs here for Ex-Sen. John Edwards, the candidate who last won the South Carolina Democratic Party.

Update: there's now a few John Edwards signs. And Edwards supporters are wearing white.

John McCain’s second stop in South Carolina today took him to an active flour processing factory off Gervais Street in downtown Columbia. 200 supporters packed into a dark, dank room. There was no air conditioning, because, presumably, the flour would blow around.

As McCain’s entourage turned into the complex, they passed a guy waving a Confederate Flag, a van emblazoned with “Kerry-MCCAIN signs, a half-naked woman posing for an erotic photo shoot, and a Bermuda-shorts wearing Beach Boy.

“We all know that John McCain sacrificed for his country,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham by way of introduction. “Now we’re going to sacrifice for him.” McCain kept his remarks mercifully short. The supporters cheered with genuinely. His standard stump speech ensued.

And then McCain and about 40 members of the press corps trooped across the street into one of the very few buildings that survived Sherman’s civil war wrath – a tiny converted school house. Grits milled from the flour company awaited. Maureen Dowd wandered over, arched an eyebrow, and did not partake. But many in the press did. They said it was delicious.

Mostly, the press asked about Iraq and McCain gave his standard answers. At one point, he conceded that he “understands that the clock is ticking.” Asked about Rudy Giuliani’s statement that the country would suffer more casualties if a Democrat were elected president in 2008, McCain passed. “I will not say anything about that. “ He allowed that “I believe that America will be safer if I am president.”

It’s not clear if McCain saw the protesters, but his staff tried to turn one of their symbols into campaign fodder: McCain entered and exited the stage to the strains of Barbara Ann. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"I'm not sure how much of a debate it is. I understand the quote 'first-tier' guys didn't want any opening statements."

-- Joe Biden, Columbia State, 4/26

The New Hampshire Senate has just passed its spousal union bill, our NH affiliate, Dr. Bill Siroty, reports.

Gov. John Lynch (D) is expected to sign the legislation shortly.

COLUMBIA, SC -- A few hours before the Democrats debate, ex-Sen. John Edwards will do something a little differently. At noon, he's scheduled to take a walking tour of Allendale, South Carolina, a small county about two hours southwest of Columbia.

Abundant with cotton fields and forests, Allendale is pretty to look at, but it is desperately poor. More than a third of all residents there live below the federal poverty line. -- the highest percentage in South Carolina. More than half of its residents lack health insurance. Most children do. The big business in Allendale is charity: dozens have set up shop there.

Edwards may point out the irony: the Lowcountry region of South Carolina, according to the Allendale County website, is "one of the fastest growing regions in the US." Perhaps in the other America.

Though there's an outpost of South Carolina State University there, Edwards isn't stumping for votes. He probably won't get too many. He is stumping instead for the contrast. By showing up there on an important day, his campaign hopes reporters will pay attention to his anti-poverty agenda and his detailed plan for universal health care coverage. The campaign also hopes that reporters notice that Sen. Barack Obama's first post-debate visit takes him to wealthy Charleston.

To win South Carolina again, Edwards cannot rely on past successes; he will not win the same endorsements he won in 2004; he cannot hope to outshine Obama or Hillary Clinton in mega-wattage. His only route to victory is to convince enough Democrats that his policies best represent the values of Democratic primary voters. So he will take his campaign to different places and try to emphasize different points. [MARC AMBINDER]

will be Trip King, who was state dir. for Sen., Fritz Hollings for more than a decade. Also joining the team: the stupendously named Remle Beard, who was Howard Dean's upstate director in '04 and worked for the Gore-Lieberman ticket in '00.

Kudos for Biden: he was the only '08 Dem to show up at the official Orangeburg pre-debate party last night.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- McCain's support in Ariz. slipping

Capitol Fax-- Pay raises and pajamas

Colorado Pols-- GOP Slobbering all over itself on ethics ...

Doc's Political Parlor-- The legislature resolves

Georgia Political Digest-- $7 million on the line in contract dispute

Iowa Politics-- Senate approves incentives to lure Google

JohnCombest.com -- Politicos having common enemy helps to heal political wounds

NhNewslinks.com -- N.H. is set to approve same-sex civil unions

Quorum Report -- Immigration folly at the lege

Sayfie's Review -- Florida will be punished if it moves primary before Feb. 5

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Knox / Hamilton meet on BEP

WisPolitics.com-- Campaign finance law returns to court

1. Why does lieutenant governor Andre Bauer need a security detail? In theory, it might help keep insurance rates down, since he seems to be a bit accident prone.

2. Will suburban white voters vote Obama? Is there anything HRC can do?

3. Bill Richardson has a better organization here than people think, and superstardom and money aside, he's probably the best fit for Democrats here.

4. Joe Biden's repeated treks here have won him some endorsements. But can he still build crowds?

5. Do African American leaders in the state believe the country is ready to elect an African American?

6. How many years will it take before Dems take control of the governor's mansion?

7. If Fred Thompson decides to run, who's left to run his campaign here? Is he actually going to campaign?

8. If you're a Republican, there are some places in the state where it would be best NOT to mention how great a governor Mark Sanford is.

9. Speaking of: Sanford is now planning to find primary challengers to profligate state representatives. And people think there are divisions among Republicans now!

10. Why did McCain lose the Charleston straw poll?

11. Immigration, immigration, immigration.

12. 800K South Carolinians out of 4M lack health insurance. Discuss: __.

13. Bill Clinton's coming later this month!

14. WIll Rep. James Clyburn endorse?

15. What's with those Michigan economic development ads on TV?

Not terribly surprising, but check out this breathless State lede:

EXCLUSIVE GOP stirs a media storm for Democrats’ parade

By AARON GOULD SHEININ - asheinin@thestate.com

While Democrats celebrate and enjoy their time in the national spotlight today, the Republicans will try to turn that shaft into a cold, hard glare.

National and state Republicans will spend the day telling South Carolinians and the country at large why the party believes “Democrats are wrong.”

According to a copy of a Republican National Committee plan to be released today, the GOP will launch a major media offensive to counter the Democratic message coming from Orangeburg.

The plan, which was obtained by The State, includes talking points and research on why the top Democratic candidates are “wrong on the economy for South Carolina,” as well as wrong on the war in Iraq and wrong on South Carolina values.

RNC comm. dir Lisa Miller and deputy Brian Walton earned their keep today. You can read what they're saying after the jump.

LEXINGTON, SOUTH CAROLINA -- You cannot escape the advertisements on radio stations across the state. Elton John is coming to Greenville! One night only. April 30.

South Carolina has Elton fever. We even heard a promo on a country station.

Greenville is the heart of South Carolina's Republican population. But there are plenty of Elton John fans in Greenville.

If one assumes that Elton John is a blue state kind of guy, one wonders why he is welcome in South Carolina.

Unless it's stupid to break things into red and blue categories.

J. Cofer Black, former director of the CIA's Counterterrorism Center (CTC) has joined Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Black later served as the state department's coordinator for counterterrorism. Black works right now as vice chairman of Blackwater USA, the major DoD security contractor.

Noon ET, outside a museum.

TV was all Rosie last night:

FNC's O'Reilly: "As predicted here last January, Ms. O'Donnell is leaving 'The View.' She made the announcement today, making me an oracle" ("O'Reilly Factor," 4/25).

And Donald Trump made the TV rounds:.

Trump: "Rosie O'Donnell is a very self-destructive person. I mean, she's basically a loser" ("Scarborough Country," MSNBC, 4/25).

More: "I don't look as it as a victory or anything else, but, I mean, she was a very self-destructive person. She was a bad person. ... She is a terrible human being. I know her well. And it's very good that she got canned" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 4/25).

THE POST-ANNOUNCEMENT TV TOUR

John McCain and Cindy McCain were on "LKL" last night:

Asked if he'd be a one-termer because of his age, McCain: "I don't know. That's something you've got to decide at the time and I think the major factor is to whether you have done the job or not and whether you think you're still fit to serve, not just because of your health, but primarily because of the kind of job you've done."

On AG Gonzales: "I'm very disappointed in his performance. I think loyalty to the president should enter into his calculations. Could I mention, as we talk about these other candidates ... I'm running on my experience, my vision, my strength, my ability to lead the country. I don't need any on the job training. I'm not the youngest guy in the campaign, but I'm the most experienced. And I'm going to be running on my vision and my strength and I'm prepared to lead. And I think that that's what I'm going to be campaigning on."

CNN's L. King: "Now, did you say you think Gonzales should leave?"

McCain: I think out of loyalty to the president that would probably be the best thing that he could do" (CNN, 4/25).

LADIES NIGHT?

And MSNBC previewed tonight's debate:

Rev. Al Sharpton, on HRC: "I'd be very careful how I handle her tomorrow night, particularly when the whole stage are all men and then Ms. Clinton. You don't even have a woman asking the questions."

MSNBC's Matthews: "God, you got a feminine side, Reverend!" ("Hardball," 4/25). [EMILY GOODIN]

The WH candidates are flocking to South Carolina, but will the first-in-the-South primary be upstaged by Iowa and Tsunami Tuesday?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

On the day John McCain committed himself to a presidential campaign, rival Mitt Romney is spending more than $1M to air television advertisements on high-profile cable networks.

Romney will air an ad that brags about his love of vetoing legislation.

He is targeting the influentials -- politically interested Americans who help determine the course of primary races by generating the type of buzz that the media hears, by talking to their neighbors, and by writing checks to candidates.

One would assume that the specific times the ads will run on CNN, Fox News Channel and MSNBC have been calculated for maximum effect by Romney's chief of targeting, Alex Gage.

A Romney aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that a "National cable buy allows for a greater audience size and is cost efficient." It's a "greater bang for your buck reaching a wider group of voters."

The ad "offers specifics on an issue important to Governor Romney as well as voters: spending. The ad speaks to his strength on the fiscal issues," the aide said. Romney has spent more than $2.5M on ads far.[MARC AMBINDER]

If John Boehner is doing it, then maybe Twitter is finally catching on -- or not. This week the House GOP leader joined a small but technologically elite group of pols who use the new technology to communicate.

Twitter, per the New York Times , is a cross between MySpace, "microblogging" and "messaging." That description is about right -- but it takes some experimenting and even frequent messaging on your own to really "get" Twittering. In short, users can set up an account and post short messages for their "friends" and "followers" that can go straight to the Web, IM or mobile phone.

Boehner spokesperson Don Seymour said he started the Twitter account after reading about it online in an effort to "reach a new audience." Okay, but just who is Boehner's target audience? He only has a handful of followers (one of whom authored this post) and it's been reported that only 100K people are on the program.

So what do Boehner and other politicans like John Edwards see in Twitter? It's minimal effort and it's free, so there's nothing to lose but your staff's time and energy. Users are limited to 140 characters, so politicos are (for once) forced to be brief. Active Twitter user and GOP consultant David All called it a "quicker way of sending a message without going through the full process of writing a big long e-mail" in "an age when people don't have much attention."

Nonetheless, it's a trend that's intrigued more pols than Boehner: Edwards has been Twittering regularly for an audience of 2000-plus since early 3/07. Check out the list of Twittering WH '08 candidates, especially the fact that this URL is taken but not in use yet.

Users: JohnEdwards (more than 2K followers, last update more than 1 week ago), RudyGiuliani (friends only), BillRichardson (1 update) and JoeBiden (last update 14 days ago).

No updates yet but the following accounts are taken: ChrisDodd, BarackObama, HillaryClinton, FredThompson, JohnMcCain, BarackObama

Not saved (so get 'em now before they're hacked): MittRomney, MikeHuckabee, SamBrownback, JimGilmore, TomTancredo, TommyThompson, NewtGingrich, ChuckHagel, MikeGravel, DennisKucinich

[SHIRA TOEPLITZ]

COLUMBIA -- Let's take a breath to catch up with the day in politics.

1. John McCain announces. His speech is lauded. This is the key message:

“You can’t sell me on hopelessness. You can’t convince me our problems are insurmountable. Our challenges are an opportunity to write another chapter of American greatness. We must seize it, and those of us privileged to lead America must remember the principles that made us great, have the faith to stand by them, the integrity to honor our public trust, and the courage to keep our promise to put the nation’s interests before our own. Don’t tell me what we can’t do. Don’t tell me we can’t make our country stronger, and the world safer. We can. We must. And when I’m President we will.

There's a tiny dig at Rudy Giuliani in there. Right?

They won't accept that firemen and policemen are unable to communicate with each other in an emergency because they don't have the same radio frequency.

2. Christian groups are gloating that Rosie O'Donnell is leaving The View.

3. John Edwards responds to Rudy's 9/11 comments:

"Rudy Giuliani's suggestion that there is some superior 'Republican' way to fight terrorism is both divisive and plain wrong. He knows better. That's not the kind of leadership he offered in the days immediately after 9/11, and it's not the kind of leadership any American should be offering now.

"As far as the facts are concerned, the current Republican administration led us into a war in Iraq that has made us less safe and undermined the fight against al Qaeda. If that's the 'Republican' way to fight terror, Giuliani should know that the American people are looking for a better plan. That's just one more reason why this election is so important; we need to elect a Democratic president who will end the disastrous diversion of the war in Iraq."

4. The Draft Fred Thompson Committee signs up Bush pioneer and ex-TN GOP chair Beth Harwell.

COLUMBIA, SC -- Marc Lampkin exhaled. His campaign event was running late, and a noonday sun was baking about a hundred students gatherer in a large parking lot next to a museum. A big yellow school bus - -a prop -- needed to park itself, but everyone was standing in the way of the bus. National reporters, like Newsweek's Howard Fineman, were waiting. Chocolate chip cookies provided to satiate the school kids were melting.

No one was listening to Lampkin. "OK," he said to a volunteer, "I need you to grab people and start moving them."

A minute later, with a path cleared, Lampkin circled a staqe full of elected officials one last time. He raised his thumb, trying to get the attention of the first speaker. "Are you ready, Marc?" one of his staff asked him. "Yeah, yeah, yeah." And then he growled softly. And then -- "Ssssh." The crowd quieted down.

Within moments, the first major campaign rally for Ed had begun. This is Lampkin's second presidential campaign; he was a deputy manager for Tx. Gov George W. Bush's campaign in 2000. This year, the campaign he's directing aims to elect Ed -- education reform -- to the pantheon of big-ticket issues that presidential candidates will address in the coming year. www.edin08.com is the cute website.

This is a campaign because there's competition. Environmental groups want the candidates to talk about global warming. The League of Conservation Voters's South Carolina state branch has urged NBC producers to ask a question about climate change tomorrow night. A separate education reform consortium made up of mostly liberal interests released a South Carolina poll earlier this week.

It's common for interest groups to bracket these major presidential events, but it's relatively uncommon for bipartisan groups to try to muscle their way in. That's what Lampkin has been tasked with doing. He's the executive director of something called the Strong American Schools Campaign, which did not really exist until today. Lampkin's boss is basically the richest guy in the world, Bill Gates. Bill and Melinda Gates, along with fellow billionaires Eli and Edythe Broad, have agreed to spend $60 million through the election to promote education reform.

It's a bipartisan effort. Lampkin is a Republican, and he recently recruited former RNC chairman Ken Mehlman to the team. Roy Romer, a former DNC chair and Denver mayor, and the guy charged most recently with fixing schools in Los Angeles, is the public face -- the "chairman."

Education policy tends to polarize politicos. So the foundation is sticking to some broad themes for now, including universal (but not federally-imposed, cookie-cutter) education standards. As in -- kids have to learn stuff. Then -- "effective teachers in every classroom." Even reporters can endorse that concept. (It means, in reality, figuring out a way to train and produce enough effective teachers." And then "more and time and support for learning." Strong American Schools has no position on No Child Left Behind, it's not calling for "merit pay," and its supporters are quick to say that the nature of the reforms themselves is best let to politicians.

Lampkin is sweating in Columbia today because the Democratic presidential candidates will show up tomorrow in Orangeburg to debate. Bill Gates is a big name -- at least one reporter attended the event in the hopes of being able to see him. Alas, the Big Guy wasn't there. But Strong American Schools will be in Simi Valley next week, too. And in South Carolina again in two weeks, when Republicans come back here. And in Nevada later this month. Ed will be everywhere. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"No, not that we know of."

-- Office of Special Counsel's Scott Bloch, asked if Karl Rove has done anything wrong, "American Morning," CNN, 4/25

COLUMBIA, SC -- From their Pickens St. headquarters here in the capital, the League of Conservation Voters released a poll this a.m. of South Carolina Democrats.

The poll was conducted April 14-19 by Ayers McHenry & Associates (R firm) and Hamilton Beattie & Staff (D firm). The sponsors are the Conservation Voters of South Carolina and the Coastal Conservation League.

First the carrots: A majority of South Carolinians believe that the next president should prioritize global warming and environmental issues, and over 80% agree that the government has a role to play in reducing emissions.

Now the dessert:

400 Rs and 400 Ds were asked about their presidential choices.

For the Dems:

Clinton: 31
Obama: 27
Edwards: 16
Undecided: 22

For the Republicans:

McCain: 24
Giuliani: 15
Gingrich: 12
Romney: 10
Fred Thompson: 11
Undecided: 22

Leaners were lumped in.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's musings about the Democratic connection to terror drew these responses -- angry responses -- from Sens. Obama and Clinton.

First, Sen. Obama

“Rudy Giuliani today has taken the politics of fear to a new low and I believe Americans are ready to reject those kind of politics. America's mayor should know that when it comes to 9/11 and fighting terrorists, America is united. We know we can win this war based on shared purpose, not the same divisive politics that question your patriotism if you dare to question failed policies that have made us less secure. I think we should focus on strengthening our intelligence, working with local authorities and doing all the things we haven't yet done to keep Americans safe. The threat we face is real, and deserves better than to be the punchline of another political attack.”

Clinton's statement focuses on the administration:

"There are people right now in the world, not just wishing us harm but actively planning and plotting to cause us harm. If the last six years of the Bush Administration have taught us anything, it's that political rhetoric won't do anything to quell those threats. And that America is ready for a change.

"One of the great tragedies of this Administration is that the President failed to keep this country unified after 9/11. We have to protect our country from terrorism – it shouldn't be a Democratic fight or a Republican fight. The plain truth is that this Administration has done too little to protect our ports, make our mass transit safer, and protect our cities. They have isolated us in the world and have let Al Qaeda regroup. The next President is going to be left with these problems and will have to do what it takes to make us safer and bring Democrats and Republicans together around this common mission of protecting our nation. That is exactly what has to be done and what I am ready to do."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Bill to move up primary date is sent to governor

Capitol Fax-- Hynes cries foul

Colorado Pols-- Two can play at that game

Doc's Political Parlor-- 3 on Gore

Georgia Political Digest-- Twist, turns of veto skirmish may lead to state AG

Iowa Politics-- House passes power fund bill

JohnCombest.com -- In political interlude, Bond and Barnes share the love

NhNewslinks.com -- Teachers say no to Lynch amendment

Quorum Report -- Jessica's law approved in Senate

Sayfie's Review -- What happens in Florida when Castro dies?

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Senior property tax freeze to vary county to ...

WisPolitics.com-- Political ad limits return to court

VP Cheney criticized Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid during his Hill visit and got the kind of TV coverage he was looking for:

FNC's Garrett: "Vice-President Cheney, in a rare Capital Hill appearance, and flanked by Senate GOP leaders, infuriated Democrats with his critique of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's new found anti-war activism" ("Special Report," 4/24).

CNN's Bash: "It was an unprecedented moment. The vice president stepped up to the Senate microphones to blast the Democratic majority leader on Iraq" ("AC 360," 4/24).

MSNBC's Stewart: "On his weekly visit to the Capitol, Vice President Cheney today accused the Democrats of pursuing a defeatist strategy in Iraq in order to win votes here at home. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that remark was just the president's chief attack dog lashing out, a vice presidential woof, if you will" ("Countdown," 4/24).

THOMPSON'S STRAIGHT MAN

Actor Sam Waterson made the TV rounds to talk about Unity08, but he was also questioned about co-star Fred Thompson:

Asked if Thompson will run: "Yes, I think that's going to happen."

More: "He's a good man, a very nice man and he's been very, very straightforward with me all the time ... When I've come to him with questions about what was going on in the world, he's given me straightforward answers" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/24).[EMILY GOODIN]

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's deputy campaign manager has resigned, a Romney aide confirmed to the Hotline Tuesday.

Jason Roe, who functioned as the campaign's top daily operating officer, told campaign officials today that he planned to leave.

"Jason informed the campaign on Tuesday that he decided to resign, citing familial obligations," said Matt Rhoades, Romney's communications director, in a prepared statement. "We understood and accepted what must have been a hard decision."

Roe, like several top Romney aides, commutes between Boston and Washington. Roe's wife lives in the D.C. area.

Roe was hired by the campaign after serving as chief of staff to Rep. Tom Feeney since 2003. He has also managed several congressional races. On Monday, the St. Petersburg Times reported that FBI agents had asked Feeney about a 2003 golfing trip with convicted ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff. The Times also reported that the FBI asked the newspaper to turn over an e-mail Roe sent to the paper. The e-mail's contents, according to the paper, included the sentence: "Any assertion that this office knew Abramoff paid for the Scotland trip is a g--d----- lie."

Roe told the Times on Monday that he had not been contacted by the FBI. A Romney aide said that Roe's departure was not linked to his job performance. [MARC AMBINDER]

With the Columbia, SC, debate as a hook, the League of Conservation Voters will begin airing one of this cycle's first issue ads You may see the ad in DC, but if you watch cable near Columbia or Orangeburg, you should see it a few times. The LCV says the size of its ad buy is large, for cable.

To entice reporters to write about the LCV's efforts, the group smartly commissioned a poll that includes data about the politics of the environment as well as -- yes -- horse race numbers in South Carolina. Natch, those won't be released until tomorrow.

Also, the LCV convinced powerful Dems and GOPers in the state legislature to sign a petition urging the '08 Dems to propose a comprehensive global warming solution.

Now -- really. Will any Dem '08er NOT make climate change a part of their platform?

The LCV ad is about climate change, yes, but it's also about making sure that the environmental movement plays an appropriate role in the field winnowing.

There are many interests to choose from and only so much time to talk: a left-leaning education reform organization and, separately, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, are using the debate to make sure that ed reform is a priority.

The LCV ad, by the way, is narrated by actor Robert Redford.

How long can Gonzo hang on in the Bush administration's latest Muppet Show... and what other follies are waiting in the wings?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

From a release:

GILMORE TO OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCE CANDIDACY

IN LIVE WEBCAST FROM IOWA GOP HEADQUARTERS

Democratic uber-blogger Chris Bowers's Inflated Clinton Poll Theory has crossed our wingspan several times, and it is worth considering. In the end, Bowers's provocative interpretation of some recent polling data may wind up explaining an Obama surge we don't yet see.

In essence, he's noticed that the Rasmussen robopolls tend to show a might tighter national race than polls conducted by live humans at a call center. Generally, Rasmussen claims to screen a much tighter selection of Democrats. Clinton and Obama are tied for the lead in those samples. In most national polls, Clinton has a high-single-digit-to-low-double-digit lead over Obama. Because Rasmussen reportedly draws from a more clued-in sample -- a sample paying close attention to the race -- Bowers notes that Clinton's lead over Obama evaporates.

Any national sample of Democratic primary voters will draw a large portion of responses from New York, California, Florida, Texas, Illinois. There are two ways to interpret the effect of geography on the theory. One is that Clinton does better in these states because voters in these states aren't paying attention to the race as closely as voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

There is some evidence suggesting that voters everywhere are paying attention earlier. It is hard to argue empirically that Democratic primary voters in general do not have enough information about Barack Obama, John Edwards or Hillary Clinton to form their initial, often sticky impressions of the field.

Significantly, primary voters in these large states might actually get to act on their preferences this cycle. In previous cycles, the preferences of voters in these states hasn't mattered. The geographic, demographic, social and economic composition of the early primary vote was probably distinct from the aggregate preferences of Democratic voters nationwide. Who knows which candidate a differently sliced subset -- had this subset been given the power to choose the nominee -- would have chosen. (This is an argument employed by Democrats to add Nevada and South Carolina to the pre-February primary calendar.)

The thinking of some in Clinton's world is that pollsters are including huge numbers of independents in their national samples. Some of the polls suggest that up to 56% of Americans are accurately labeled as Dem primary voters. That can't be right.

The distinction between likely primary voters and self-identified Democrats is important and validly drawn in a state like Iowa, where pollsters have a reliable record of limning those two fields. But in the February 5 states, it means nothing. Where is the evidence showing that self-identified Democrats in those states are predisposed to vote for Hillary Clinton? And how does one figure out the identity of likely primary voters in states whose delegates last mattered in 1992?

Methodologically, it's next to impossible to test this theory with evidence in the public domain. We're not precisely certain how Rasmussen screens its likely voters, we're not certain whether robot pollsters are more reliable or whether they enhance or reduce certain forms of response bias.

One national poll conducted by our colleague Charlie Cook included a subsample of hard core primary voters – the answer to a question about a Hillary Clinton were not significantly different among those two universes.

An unrelated objection to Bowers's theory may be he fails to provide a convincing account as to why Barack Obama would be tied with Hillary Clinton nationally in the first place. Why not John Edwards, whose positions on the issues are more closely aligned with the clued-in activists in the party?

Bowers responds:

" I can't derive an ought from an is, in this case. I don't know why Obama is doing better than Edwards in national polls--I just know that he is. I also know, from data in Pew and elsewhere, that he significantly rises among voters paying close attention, while Edwards does not. That is why I think Obama would benefit from a tighter voter screen more than Edwards."

There is conflicting evidence from the states in which we know voters are paying attention. John Edwards leads in Iowa, but Hillary Clinton still tops most New Hampshire polls. We've seen four South Carolina polls in two weeks, and Hillary Clinton has solid leads in two of them. We don't know enough about the methodology of these polls to say for certain whether a universe of likely primary/caucus goers has been accurately sampled. In Iowa, in fact, it is surprisingly tough to find a reliable sample. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"It was certainly a Freudian slip if I said anything other than Senator Reid."

-- Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), asked if he said "Senator Rude," "American Morning," CNN, 4/24

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- The big debate: Marching against Prop. 300

Capitol Fax-- Backlash heats up over “Friday Massacre”

Colorado Pols-- Tuesday open thread

Doc's Political Parlor-- GOP email circulates at Dem dinner

Georgia Political Digest-- Lawmakers prep for budget battle

Iowa Politics-- Iowa spending bill swells with pet projects

JohnCombest.com -- Democratic, Republican pairs are on display

NhNewslinks.com -- House approves renewable energy legislation

Quorum Report -- Immigrants could lose comfort zone in Austin

Sayfie's Review -- Romney betting on early Florida primary

Tennessee Politics Blog-- State Asked to Stop Lethal Injection

WisPolitics.com-- Line-item veto bill renewed

Chris Cillizza has the news of two long-time aides to Sen. John McCain who will no longer be working for the campaign.

Our brief analysis: this reflects the strength of McCain's campaign manager, Terry Nelson. Eudy is a long-time member of McCain's inner circle. Early worries about Nelson being one chef among many may not be realized.

From an ABC News alert:

SALES OF EXISTING HOMES PLUNGED LAST MONTH BY 8.4 %, THE LARGEST AMOUNT IN NEARLY TWO DECADES, SAYS REAL ESTATE TRADE GROUP

Karl Rove has long feared the sound of the real estate bubble popping.

::::pop::::::

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is hosting a bevy of Washington's elite tomorrow at a $2300 per plate fundraiser in downtown DC.

Among the names on the invitation list: "Hon. Billy Tauzin."

That would be the former Republican congressman from Louisiana, currently the president of The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.

PhRMA is a bit of a bugbear for most '08ers.

Tauzin's spokesman, Ken Johnson, tells the Hotline: "He's had a long standing personal relationship with Bill dating back to their time on the energy and commerce committees."

Tauzin's presence and friendship reflect personal sentiment, not PhRMA policy, and Tauzin is representing only Tauzin tomorrow night, Johnson said. [MARC AMBINDER]

1. His funny little think tank has hired a pollster.

2. He won't announce before September. (We're guessting September 14). Why? In late August, he'll be cruising with Oliver North to various Italian ports of call. Gingrich is the special guest on North's "Freedom Cruise", which departs August 19 from Rome and returns August 29.

Counter-programming:

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Eli and Edyth Broad Foundation will launch an unprecendeted multi-million dollar nonpartisan movement that calls on all presidential candidates to improve America’s public schools. The movement will be unveiled on the eve of the 2008 Presidential debates by parents, teachers, business, civic, political and community leaders, including:

Well, including the Mayor of Columbia, ex-Gov. David Beasley, '04 SEN candidate Inez Tennenbaum, and more.

They're doing this IN South Carolina one day before the debate.

Since it's the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, does that mean we'll be graced by an appearance from ....?

Lots of good interviews on TV last night:

Bill Richardson was on "Hardball" where the subject was gun control:

Richardson: "I believe in responsible gun ownership. You know, gun ownership for the West is critically important. But I do support stronger measures, background checks to detect criminal activity. And obviously, in this case, we've learned that mental illness has been very wishy-washy in terms of being able to purchase a gun. We have to tighten those laws. I think we have to enhance penalties for criminal activity involving a gun. But I do believe ... that we can't overreact."

On the VA Tech shooting: "This is a mental illness issue. We need to expand that definition, so that those with mental illness cannot get guns" (MSNBC, 4/23).

Mitt and Ann Romney were on "On the Record":

M. Romney, on immigration: "I would like a fence, and I'd like to also make sure that we have an employment verification system so that we know who's here legally and who's not, who is able to work and who's not."

On health care: "Well, I like the idea of letting states have some flexibility to develop their own programs to get more and more people insured. We found a way to get everybody in our state, Massachusetts, insured. I like the plan. I think it's one of the best things we did in my administration. It's not perfect. We will learn from it. But the idea is for people who can afford insurance make sure they get their premiums down by taking mandates off insurance companies. Let the insurance companies offer true market-based products. And then for people who can't afford insurance, help them buy their own private policy. Don't put them on Medicaid. Get them private insurance. Get everybody in the system. It's a bit like bringing work to welfare. Bring personal responsibility to health care. Get the government out of the health care business for those 45 million uninsured, and let individuals own their own policies" (FNC, 4/23).

Ron Paul was on "Lou Dobbs Tonight" as part of Lou Dobbs offer to give airtime to the '08ers. Dobbs: "I strongly believe that most of us want to hear what presidential candidates have to say on the issues and their specific position. And what we're doing is offering a special series on this broadcast. We call it '2008: Time For Answers.' And we're giving all the presidential candidates two minutes of uninterrupted airtime to address each critical issue facing this country."

Paul, on free trade: "I'm for free trade. Although I'm not for the type of system that we have today because I don't believe it's my concept of free trade. I do not believe that the Congress should ever have the authority to pass this authority to the president. And on things like on fast track and then president devises agreements that serve the interests of the special interests."

More: "I'd get rid of NAFTA and WTO, for that matter. I certainly don't want a North American Union and I'm sick of these plans for this highway coming through here that's going to go from Mexico to Canada. That's not my idea of national sovereignty" (CNN, 4/23).

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid spoke with CNN's Bash:

Asked if he stands by his war is "lost" comment: "General Petraeus has said that only 20 percent of the war can be won militarily. He's the man on the ground there now. He said 80 percent of the war has to be won diplomatically, economically and politically. I agree with General Petraeus. Now, that is clear and I certainly believe that."

More: "General Petraeus has said the war cannot be won militarily. He said that. And President Bush is doing nothing economically. He is doing nothing diplomatically. He is not doing even the minimal requested by the Iraq Study Group. So I stick with General Petraeus. I have no doubt that the war cannot be won militarily, and that's what I said last Thursday and I stick with that" (CNN, 4/23). [EMILY GOODIN]

Sen. Barack Obama spent time tonight talking to the Chicago press corps about the Resko story.

So -- contrary to the impression left by NBC 5 Chicago, Obama is not avoiding reporters. Maybe just _their_ reporter.

(After all, if they were waiting for him, why walk into an ambush? Rule 1 of damage control optics is: respond on your own terms.)

The report by NBC 5 Chicago's Carol Marin begins as follows:

"Sen. Obama went out of his today to avoid answering questions..."

Obama can clear all this up with a press conference. The original Sun Times story found Obama guilty-by-association. Calling "slum lord" Tony Resko a "patron" of Obama is a bit of a stretch.

In the real world, everyone has controversial associations. Usually, we normal non-political folks aren't called to account for them. But Obama is running for president, and his clients, friends, donors, and the clients of his law firm are all fair game. It's a higher standard, it may not be a "fair" standard, but it is probably, on balance, necessary to hold up.

Or maybe the story will go away on its own. [MARC AMBINDER]

Her campaign has moved to a purple state.

This week, the Hillary Clinton for President Exploratory Committee -- yes, it's still an exploratory committee, believe it or not -- is relocating to Fairfax Drive in Arlington, VA.

** = if you believe that Zogby polls in SC are as reliable as other polls - -we are agnostic, being unaware of Mr. Zogby's methods.

Still, that's two recent polls we've seen showing HRC up in SC.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: An exclusive NewsChannel 15-Zogby presidential poll in South Carolina shows Arizona Senator John McCain leading the Republican primary race in South Carolina by a slim margin, and New York Senator Hillary Clinton showing strength in the first in the south Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, McCain has 22 percent of likely statewide primary voters against 19 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former actor turned Senator Fred Thompson, who has not announced a presidential bid, scores third with 11 percent, ahead of former Massachusettes Governor Mitt Romney with 10 percent. South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who has said repeatedly he is not a candidate in 2008, places next with 8 percent. No other Republican candidate is above 2 percent statewide.

In the Democratic race, New York Senator Hillary Clinton is showing strength in the south with 33 percent of likely primary voters supporting her. Senator Barack Obama has 26 percent, former Senator and South Carolina native John Edwards is third with 21 percent. Edwards won the South Carolina primary in 2004. No other Democratic candidate is above 1 percent statewide.

Perhaps the most interesting thing in the poll is the strength of Clinton. She leads Obama among young voters 49 to 10 percent. Clinton's only weak area seems to be among male voters where she trails both Obama and Edwards by a slim one percent margin. However, Clinton enjoys a huge 40 percent to 25 percent edge with women voters over Obama, with just 18 percent for Edwards. Perhaps most striking is that 47 percent of South Carolina Clinton supporters say they are "unlikely" to change their mind by January. Only 38 percent of Obama's supporters are that loyal.

There are some bright signs for McCain. He leads every age category, and self-identified "born again" voters favor him over Giuliani 22-16 percent. McCain also has a double digit lead in the conservative upstate, where his presidential campaign effectively ended in 2000. McCain is beating Giuliani there 26 to 15 percent with Romney at 10 percent. The bad news for both McCain and Giuliani is that their support appears soft. Only 24 percent of Giuliani supporters and 18 percent of McCain supporters say it's "unlikely" they would change their mind by the primary.

NewsChannel 15 anchor Jim Heath, who has interviewed recently most of the presidential candidates, says the poll shows South Carolinians are already engaged in the presidential race. "Like Iowa and New Hampshire, the major candidates are coming to South Carolina and attracting hundreds of people to their events. We still have nine months to go, but voters here know the important role South Carolina plays in the nomination process, and they are taking that role very seriously."

Speaking at a CSIS pres. candidate forum today at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC, John McCain gave the final address of his three-part policy speech series, focusing on "Energy Policy and National Security." McCain expressed dire concern about US reliance on foreign oil, and called the threat of global warming "a serious and urgent economic, environmental and national security challenge" that "isn't a Hollywood invention."

McCain offered one brief reprise from the wonky energy policy rhetoric. The WH '08er raised a "Zach Morris," (circa 1988) cell phone in one hand, with a MotoRazr phone in the other to show that "answering great challenges is nothing new to America" and technological advancements will continue to help solve the issues associated with our current "oil dependence."

In championing bipartisan legislation that would set "reasonable caps on carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions" to fight global warming, McCain strayed from the GOP line he toed in his first two speeches on Iraq policy and economic conservatism. Asked whether conservatives voters would support this legislation and his belief in the threat of global warming, McCain hesitantly responded, "I don't know whether they will or not." Asked to explain the significance of the policy speech series in his '08 campaign, McCain simply acknowledged the speeches as part of a general "thematic concept" leading up to his official announcement kickoff tour, set to begin 4/25 in crucial NH primary territory [AMY DUDLEY]

But funny: a Red Sox fan throws pizza at another fan.

It's a treacherous, twisted road to the White House, but we've got directions -- buckle up and come along for the ride...



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The hot rumor: Barbara Comstock, friend of Jeri Kehn, is leaving Mitt Romney's campaign for Fred Thompson's campaign. Comstock, a former DoJ comm. dir and Republican communications/op research strategist, is one of Romney's principal political advisers.

Source: NH Insider blog.

Truth: Kevin Madden, Romney spokesman, tells us:"It's nonsense."

Supporting evidence: Both Thompson and Romney were making the rounds on Saturday night at the WHCA dinner. Comstock was with Romney. [MARC AMBINDER]

As Sen. John McCain today delivers a major policy address on energy and the environment, we're reminded that rival Mitt Romney is unabashadly presenting himself as the '08 race's prime message/issue candidate. Normally, when a campaign claims to run a "message" campaign, they're usually covering for the characterological deficits of the candidate. And generally, presidential races -- even primaries -- are contests of attributes, not ideas.

But Romney's relentless focus on messages strikes us as necessary Aside from the hippety-hop flip-floppery -- that's still a real problem -- Romney is a great attribute candidate. The man is the message: a reformer, who, by the way, has detailed proposals to reform X, Y, and Z.

Importantly, it allows him to into next week's debate and be ready with an answer to questions about his past positions. Instead of answering why he believed in some silly liberal idea back when, he can respond by pulling out a sheaf of new proposals.

Also, there's no reason to compete in a popularity contest with Rudy Giuliani and John McCain right now. At this juncture, Romney will not win a battle of ideas with these guys. McCain is too strong on Iraq -- or too closely identified with it, now, and Giuliani's anti-terrorism credentials are seen as impregnable.

Romney has so far given speeches on taxes (where Giuliani arguably is not terribly strong, and where McCain has some explaining to do), energy (where Romney is trying to set his stake down in the free market space), and the military, where he's focused on future threats, not past battles. The positioning is creative.

The pitfalls: Romney's policy proposals often sound as if they were ripped from the Heritage Foundation's Guidebook For A Conservative Presidential Candidate. His speeches aren't nearly as elegant as John McCain's, and if the discussed remains focused on the Iraq war, Romney faces the Hobson's choice of trying to distance himself from the administration, thereby earning the activists' disapproval, or out-supporting John McCain, which is next to impossible. Or, Newt Gingrich gets in and blows Romney out of the water. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"Gonzales has always been in over his head. But his behavior lately is starting to make even Janet Reno look good."

-- The New Hampshire Union Leader, 4/23

Salon's Republican chronicler, Michael Scherer, dug in to several South Carolina county Republican conventions, and concluded, in an article about dirty politicking in the state, that, yes, Gov. Mitt Romney's South Carolina field operation is probably paying for delegates to state conventions in the hope that said generosity (and a healthy dollop of Mitt Love, Mitt appearances, and Mitt mailings, ) would help Romney win the convention straw polls.

Scherer was unable to convince Romney aides to admit the obvious -- of course they're paying -- and in doing so, seems to have trapped a Romney organizer in a bit of a verbal bind.

In the past, Romney aides, speaking on background, have acknowledged to the Hotline that they've engineered the purchase of tickets for delegates. Proudly, even. Romney's South Carolina strategy is predicated in part upon the positive press that straw poll wins generate, and the social pressure that those wins create among Republicans in targeted counties. No one forces anyone to vote for Romney.

Straw poll victories show, at a minimum, that Romney's SC team is capable of organizing. That's an important ingredient for victory. At a maximum, they demonstrate that a wide sample of Republican activists are comfortable with Romney.

In Iowa, the biggest event of the year requires candidates to pay for delegates to attend, to pick up their transportation costs to Ames, and to bribe them with food, drink and merriment.

The straw poll victories do not demonstrate grassroots support, if grassroots is defined as "natural," or endemic to a certain population of Republicans. One cannot artificially produce a straw poll victory and then claim that one's popularity is spreading like a funny joke. It's kind of like a movie studio paying for theatre-goers to show up at a new movie, however thumbs-uppy that new movie might be.

(Note to CNN: we don't mean to pick on you, especially because Romney's campaign sent this clip around, but choose your nouns carefully). [MARC AMBINDER]

Independent liberal Matt Yglesias joins the Atlantic Media Company's growing network of blogs.

Welcome!

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Giffords starting to run away in fundraising

Capitol Fax-- Obamarama: Law firm did work for Rezko, but not much connection

Colorado Pols-- Melanson to run Udall Senate campaign

Doc's Political Parlor-- Rep. Bud Cramer (AL-5) has challenger

Georgia Political Digest-- Real blood spilled over health care discussion?

Iowa Politics-- Clinton helps Boswell raise re-election funds

JohnCombest.com -- Blunt, Nixon main beneficiaries of unlimited contributions

NhNewslinks.com -- Obama wants Gregg, Sununu behind Iraq bill

Quorum Report -- Lawmakers plan to put more religion in your life

Sayfie's Review -- Crist popular in UNF polling

Tennessee Politics Blog-- TennCare still having problems

WisPolitics.com-- Georgia Thompson hired back to state job

We've heard Giuliani advisers make this argument, but we've never heard it from the candidate himself.

Interviewed this a.m. on "Smerconish," the Imus substitute on MSNBC, Giuliani said

"From a political point of view, I probably have the best chance of putting states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Washington, Oregon, California in play. And as a Republicans, if we don't put those states in play next time ... we may see a Democratic president."

Pennsylvania and New Jersey are realistic. California, Oregon and Washington are second-tier. Connecticut is unlikely.

But Giuliani's point holds, right?

1. Barack Obama and his slumlord patron. That's a headline, mind you, in the Chicago Sun-Times.

Much of the criticism has centered on two real estate deals involving Obama's South Side mansion. In the first, Obama paid $300,000 less than the asking price for a doctor's home, while [developer/alleged slum lord Tony] Rezko's wife paid the doctor full price for the vacant lot next door. Then -- a few months before Rezko was indicted -- Obama bought part of that lot from Rezko's wife.

But Obama's ties with Rezko go beyond those two real estate sales and the political support, the Sun-Times found. Obama was an attorney with a small Chicago law firm -- Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland -- that helped Rezmar get more than $43 million in government funding to rehab 15 of their 30 apartment buildings for the poor.

Just what legal work -- and how much -- Obama did on those deals is unknown. His campaign staff acknowledges he worked on some of them. But the Rezmar-related work amounted to just five hours over the six years it said Obama was affiliated with the law firm, the staff said in an e-mail in February.

Obama, however, was associated with the firm for more than nine years, his staff acknowledged Sunday in an e-mail response to questions submitted March 14 by the Sun-Times. They didn't say what deals he worked on -- or how much work he did.

Here's the Sun Times/Obama campaign Q and A.

2. The kicker from the Washington Post's examination of the work John Edwards did for a New York hedge fund:

Steve Jarding, a former top strategist for Edwards, said he would have advised the candidate to avoid the business and fundraising relationship with the hedge fund because it flies in the face of his political persona as a champion for the poor and an advocate for making the wealthy pay their share of taxes.

"It raises the question, 'Is John Edwards the guy he says he is?' -- and that is not a debate John wants to have when he is trying to raise money and to move into that top tier of candidates," Jarding said.

3. The Note lives! Rick Klein of the Boston Globe has been hired to write the Note and be ABCNews.com's chief political correspondent.

4. Mike Huckabee showed up at the decadent Bloomberg After Party on Saturday and made his way around largely unnoticed. The next morning, he appeared bright eyed and bushy tailed on Fox News Sunday, so we're pretty sure he didn't get blasted.

5. Tim Gunn told the Hotline he liked our tux.

We're led to understand that, for their new ad about Sen. John McCain and Iran, MoveOn.org has purchased roughly $44K on Manchester, NH's WMUR and about $25K in Iowa so far, spread between the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets.

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

The divorce was finalized two weeks ago. McCain got his Iraq speech; the media kept their '00 memories. McCain's new flame: the conservative press.

-- In '00, McCain could joke about anything, and the media lapped it up. Knowing that beneath the jokey mien was a sober guy who spent 5 years in a Vietnamese prison made his cracks seem like trifles. Besides, McCain was "spontaneous" where Bush was "programmed," right?

-- Thanks to a (Romney?) tracker's video and a quick e-mail to Drudge, "Bomb Bomb Iran" was everywhere 4/19. The MSM was skeptical. NBC called it a "controversy." The conservative press (Fox News this a.m.) laughed it off.

-- McCain's camp uses every MSM/liberal attack to court GOP primary voters. And it works. The press corps, 7 years older, is full of reporters who've never taken the Straight Talk Express. Those who have are bending over backwards to prove they're not giving McCain a pass.

-- Should the media move on and "get a life?" Maybe. But as McCain himself has said, '08's a much more serious time than '00. Are the standards, for everyone, different?

Join your favorite Hotline staffers TODAY for Happy Hour:

Hotline Happy Hour
4pm to 7pm (or "Last Call," if you will...)
Union Pub:www.unionpubdc.com
201 Massachusetts Ave NE

No good reason to celebrate, except that no one bothers to invite us to any real WHCA pre-parties tomorrow so we have to have our own. Sadly, drinks will not be on the company. But we swear our own company is worth it.

"This didn't happen accidentally, all these things."

-- Joe Biden, on Iraq, Venezuela, Katrina, Virginia Tech, Darfur and Imus happening since the "Gingrich revolution," AP, 4/19

Why hasn't Sen. Barack Obama accepted the invitation from the Service Employees International Union to spend a day working in the shoes of one of its members? (The other Dem '08ers have all RSVP'd.)

It's not because SEIU is 100% on track to endorse John Edwards -- that's not a done deal.

www.WalkADayInMyShoes2008.com.

Regardless of who wins the Dem nomination, they will eventually need to be in the good graces of SEIU president Andrew Stern, the leader of the country's largest labor union and one of Washington's hidden power centers.

From a release:

“To joke about such a matter at a time when war in the Middle East has done so much to weaken America is beyond comprehension,” said Dr. Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council.

Ex-Pres. Bill Clinton speculates that ex-VP Al Gore might run. Dems who wait for Al Gore will not commit to, say, Barack Obama. (But we're told that Clinton _really_ thinks that his former vice president might actually run).

BTW: What did he mean when he said this?

"So it's a long, long thing. The thing that bothers me about this process is it's awfully early. It's starting a little early and it's hard for people to maintain the mental and emotional discipline necessary to sustain this long fight."

He later allowed that he was NOT concerned that his wife would wear out. And Larry King's question was about Obama.

Kind of a bizarre headline: "Keep guns from the insane: Obama" (AP).

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- Renzi steps down from House panel after raid on firm

Capitol Fax-- Was it a labor win or not?

Colorado Pols-- A stink bomb, maybe

Doc's Political Parlor-- Dispatch from the Legislature

Georgia Political Digest-- Governor vetoes '07 budget

Iowa Politics-- Richardson will start airing ads in Iowa

JohnCombest.com -- Slay endorses Hillary Clinton

NhNewslinks.com -- Civil unions gain ground as governor vows action

Quorum Report -- For Teflon Pete, divorce case a political problem

Sayfie's Review -- Florida Sen. Martinez facing fines

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Wamp for Gov in 2010?

WisPolitics.com-- Voters not told of Ziegler ethics inquiry

Facebook is in the midst of changing over their WH '08 pages with some improved features on the way. According to a campaign aide familiar with the changes, users are now automatically added as friends again, they can no longer poke candidates and anyone can write on the wall.

More revelant for our purposes, this time around you can check out who has the most supporters. But it's also important to note that since some of the facebook profiles started updating yesterday, each candidate (except for Brownback) has lost between 10 and 60 "supporters." That fact exemplifies that what many online strategies have been preaching for months: Just because they're your facebook friend, doesn't mean they actually support your candidacy.

Heres' the tally as of today:

Dems
Obama: 64,009 supporters
Clinton: 19,518
Edwards: 6,234
Biden 1,754:
Kucinich 1,320:
No changes yet -- Richardson and Dodd.

GOPers
Romney: 6,201
McCain: 1,859
Brownback: 839
Tancredo: 576
Paul: 485
Hunter: 151
Huckabee: 48
No changes yet: Gilmore, Giuliani, T. Thompson

The more liberals bash McCain, the more comfortable conservatives tend to get.

MoveOn says the ad will air in "early primary states." The size of the ad buy isn't known.

There was still a lot talk on VA Tech last night but cable news also delved into other topics, including AG Alberto Gonzales' testimony:

CNN's Bash: "Tom Coburn was the only Republican senator to say today point blank to the attorney general, you should go. But I can tell you, loyal Republican after loyal Republican in this hearing room and more specifically in private to CNN today have made it clear that they are, frankly, flabbergasted by how poorly they think the attorney general has done in this hearing" ("Situation Room," 4/19).

MSNBC's Shuster: "One by one, nearly every Republican committee member criticized the contradictions and rolling disclosures from Gonzales and his department" ("Hardball," 4/19).

Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA): "It's really all a muddle as to what happened. I do not believe that it has been shown that they were influenced politically, but we don't know yet why they were asked to resign. And until that is done, there are clouds of suspicion" ("NewsHour," PBS, 4/19).

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT): "Let's appoint an independent expert to find the e-mails that were suddenly lost. ... It's like saying, 'The dog ate my homework.' Now, let's find those e-mails. Let's find why they were suddenly lost" ("NewsHour," PBS, 4/19).

Newsweek's Wolffe, on the WH reax to Gonzales: "I can tell you, behind the scenes, off camera, all of these expressions of confidence have a caveat. Well, he has full confidence, the president has full confidence, but it's up to Gonzales to show that he should really keep his job and not quit. And it's those caveats that people are picking up on the Hill and obviously bringing out into the public, even those Republicans" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/19).

HAIL TO THE CHIEF

Ex-Pres. Clinton was on "LKL" last night:

On the Dem '08 field: "Vice President Gore might run."

More: "The thing that bothers me about this process is it's awfully early. It's starting a little early and it's hard for people to maintain the mental and emotional discipline necessary to sustain this long fight."

On HRC's Iraq vote: "She's had some difficulty because of the insistence of some people in characterizing the vote on the Iraq War Resolution back in 2002, saying that everybody who voted for that voted for the war. And that's factually inaccurate. Let me remind you that that resolution was written by Senator Carl Levin, Senator Lugar and Senator Chuck Hagel, the primary Republican opponent of the war. And if you read the resolution, it says that the president is authorized to attack Saddam Hussein if the diplomatic efforts, that is, the inspections, fail."

CNN's L. King: "A new poll just in about the notion of Chelsea taking on traditional duties of the first lady if your mom is elected as president. Overwhelming, 63 percent said that's a bad idea. Is it a bad idea?"

Clinton: "I think so. I can tell you that if Chelsea had been called, she'd be one of those 63 percent. ... I'm very proud of our daughter, and Hillary is. And she's very supportive of her mother. But she's got her own life to live. She works. She does her own range of other activities. She cares a lot about politics and she wants her mom to win. But she's got a life to live. And we don't want to interrupt that. And there is no way she should stop doing what she's doing and try to assume that role. I think, you know, we'll figure out what to do about the traditional social responsibilities of the White House. If the American people choose Hillary, we'll figure out how to discharge them" (CNN, 4/19). [EMILY GOODIN]

Some points about Joe Trippi and John Edwards:

# Trippi remains a hero to the Netroots. Justifiably. Opinions diverge when his fellow political strategists are polled, but many veteran strategists agree that Trippi is among the most brilliant, creative thinkers in politics.

# Trippi will be the first to tell you that he's not the best manager of personnel; in this role, he won’t have to manage anyone… just give advice.

# He's a big personality, and his reputation took a hit after 2004; That he would be asked to join a major Democratic campaign today, (and perhaps having chosen among several trying to recruit him, means that his standing has been rehabilitated.

# Edwards's strategy team includes pollster Harrison Hickman, deputy manager Jonathan Prince, longtime adviser Miles Lackey, senior adviser Chris Chafe, senior adviser Nick Baldick, political director David Medina and manager David Bonior. Elizabeth Edwards remains first among equals. It's not clear how well this team will work together in the long run, but if Trippi was asked to come aboard, it's safe to say that John Edwards and Elizabeth Edwards are confident that everyone will play nicely.

# It's not entirely clear what role Trippi will play in developing Edwards's Internet activism capacity. Ex-Moveon.Org Advocacy Dir. Ben Brandzel and Kerry/Edwards '04 Internet Development Dir. Aaron Meyers head up the Internet department, while Dean alum Matt Gross advises the e-team.

# Trippi will also help create Edwards's television, internet and radio ads, joining consultant Marius Penczner .

# Two statements from the campaign: Bonior: "

We couldn't be more excited to have Joe join our team. He's creative, passionate, committed and shares John Edwards' vision of an America that works for all of us."

Prince said,

"Joe is a true believer who has never been the kind of guy who sits around and waits for somebody else to bring about the change he believes we need. And that's what our campaign is about. That's the challenge John and Elizabeth have laid before all of us. I'm glad Joe Trippi is one of those who's ready to take it up."

[MARC AMBINDER]

Trippi, writing on John Edwards's blog:

I really thought that the 2004 presidential campaign would be the last I would be involved in. I have always wanted to make a difference, but for me I thought those days were over.

A few weeks ago, John and Elizabeth Edwards made their decision to continue, not just John Edwards' campaign for President, but their work together to make a difference for their country.

And that made me realize that I wasn't done trying to make a difference either. Not by a long shot. So today I am joining the John Edwards campaign.

Too much is at stake. The war in Iraq continues, and more of our troops will lose their lives. Working Americans are losing ground. Poverty continues in the wealthiest nation on the planet. And nearly nothing is really being done to reduce global warming.

John Edwards is leading the way and making a difference on all of these issues. He's offering big ideas backed by real plans to change our country. And so his campaign is the place where I will work to make whatever difference I can.

Lets make a difference together, for each other, and for our country. Too much is at stake to give anything less than everything we've got.

We're told that Trippi will be a senior adviser and a member of the media team. We suspect he'll play a large role in developing Edwards's internet strategy. [MARC AMBINDER]

Developing....

... And why is John Kerry still talking about 2008? Listen up.



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Sen. Tom Coburn just became the first Republican on the judicary committee to ask AG Gonzales to resign.

Dem strategist Steve Rabinowitz e-mails:

"All seven major Democratic presidential candidates will speak next week to members of the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC) here, in Washington. These speeches differ substantially from those delivered recently to AIPAC and the Religious Action Center in that NJDC is a strictly partisan, Democratic group, made up some of the biggest Jewish donors in the Democratic Party. In addition, NJDC focuses as much on domestic issues as on Israel and Iran. They are also the only purely Jewish Democratic group in the country."

The vetting begins Monday at Almas Temple on K Street. The full schedule is after the jump.

We've been following the Gonzales hearing on C-SPAN 3, and we only think you need to read two things.

One: Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) said to Gonzales: "You made up reasons to fire them."

Two: Byron York:

It has been a disastrous morning for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales at the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. The major problem with his testimony is that Gonzales maintains, in essence, that he doesn’t know why he fired at least some of the eight dismissed U.S. attorneys.

It doesn't seem to be going very well.

Drudge is all over "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran"

Spin 1 -- John McCain was just joking.

Spin 2 -- Remember when Ronald Reagan missed his radio address cue and joked about bombing Russia? Well, McCain is so much like Reagan than when he makes a gaffe, it's the type of gaffe Reagan would make.

Spin 3 -- At least McCain never claimed to be an independent and distance himself from Ronald Reagan (cough, Romney).

Mark Blumenthal notices in the ABC News/Washington Post poll that "opposition to Romney is greater than much better known figures, such as Hillary Clinton (45%) and John McCain (47%)."

Romney is well-known by about 20% of Americans, so maybe he's become quite polarizing among those who've heard of him.

The ABC News write-up includes this additional detail. The 54 percent that would definitely not support Romney includes "a third of Republicans - a particularly broad level of rejection within his own party."

A third of Republicans? Yes, the presidential campaign is off to its earliest start ever, and yes, according to the same ABC/Post poll, the 66% following the presidential campaign "very closely" or "somewhat closely" is higher now than it was in September 2003 (56%) or October 1999 (61%), but that sort of reaction still seems surprisingly high. Especially since, a bit later in the survey, only 14% say they know a "great deal" or a "good amount" about Romney's positions on specific issues, 15% say they know some and more than half (51%) say they know "little or nothing."

As both articles point out, opposition to Romney is greater than much better known figures, such as Hillary Clinton (45%) and John McCain (47%).

Two other polls out in the last week showed Romney with negative ratings that were slightly (though not significantly) higher than his positives: Gallup (23% favorable, 24% unfavorable - via Polling Report) and CBS News (10% favorable, 16% unfavorable). Still, the negative percentages on those surveys clearly fall far short of the 54% definitely not support number on the ABC/Post poll.

From today's Hotline:

"I have seen the sonograms of my babies."

-- Fred Thompson, on why the abortion issue means more to him now, Bloomberg, 4/19

The loudest debate in the political and legal blogospheres right now hinges on how severe a blow yesterday's ruling was to the future of Roe. The thin view suggests that Carhart paves the way for further restrictions on abortion law and and "it reweights how courts should balance the competing interests articulated in Casey by giving greater deference to the State’s important interest in regulating abortion." That's the thin argument!

The thick argument concludes that

Not only will this change in the standard applied by Casey make litigation to protect a woman's reproductive freedom much more expensive and difficult, but it will have the perverse effect of making the fact that abortion regulations almost invariably have much more impact on poor, rural women an argument in their favor.

But here's a third view, suggested to us by a smart reader:

1. Chief Justice John Roberts was on the prevailing side. So it was he who picked Justice Anthony Kennedy to write the decision. (Maybe he knew Kennedy would render a theatric and visually evocative piece of legalese -- Kennedy, after all, has long hinted that the majority decision in Casey v. Pennsylvania would indeed allow for a federal partial birth abortion law.)

2. Roberts and Justice Sam Alito concurred in whole with Kennedy.

3. Justice Scalia and Justice Thomas added a concurrence that attacked Roe specifically.

4. Roberts and Alito did not sign on to that.

5. Ask: what about the concurrence did Roberts and Alito not endorse?

6. Are Roberts and Scalia willing to preserve Roe? Or were they less willing to rock the boat on their first abortion case? The legal eagle assumption is that one ought not read their failure to join the Scalia/Thomas concurrance as anything other than their desire to limit their opinion to Carhart.

7. Are there only two justices on the court who would -- today -- take the opportunity to overturn Roe?

Note: Quin Hillyer has an interesting take on Kennedy's theory of the case.

Per the AP's Norma Love:

Gov. John Lynch told The Associated Press on Thursday he will sign legislation establishing civil unions in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire thus will become the fourth state to adopt civil unions and the first to do so without first having a court fight over denying gays the right to marry.

"I believe it is a matter of conscience, fairness and preventing discrimination," Lynch said in an interview.

In a sea of Republican presidential hopefuls that invoke Reagan about as much as the average person references their mothers, receiving the Ronald Reagan award seems to be the Everest of accolades. And such was the case at last night’s Frontiers of Freedom Ronald Reagan gala, where Mitt Romney sought to channel the legendary leader’s charisma, optimism and folksy feel.

Just as Reagan did when he warned against the “unprecedented danger” of communism, Romney laced his speech with warnings of modern day foreign threats like North Korea. But, like Reagan, he also channeled optimism. As he often does, Romney invoked Reagan’s famous line that “I have seen four wars during my lifetime and none of them began because America was too strong.”

Romney also used his speech-- which he opened by praising the day’s “life affirming” Supreme Court decision-- to allude to his religious convictions (hint: they’re not unlike yours, Christian Conservatives). He referenced Isaiah when highlighting his foreign policy goals and cited Cain and Abel when talking about the Virginia Tech shootings. He also said that after hearing about the tragedy in Blacksburg, “the first thing I did was pick up my bible.”

Speaking before a room full of black-and-white tuxedos, Romney’s speech was, fittingly, a study in contrasts: He spoke of life and death, good and evil, small vs. big. And for a candidate who’s plagued by accusations of policy shifts and flips flops, he wanted to make one thing certain: he’s the Reagan candidate. And he’s prepared to make as many Peggy Noonan or “Shining City” references as it takes, till they believe him. [NORA MCALVANAH]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

AZ Political News-- McCain heads to Vegas, applauds abortion ruling

Capitol Fax-- Bo bends House to her will

Colorado Pols-- Tancredo belittles Virginia Tech tragedy

Doc's Political Parlor-- Study: What do we not know?

Georgia Political Digest-- Veto threat hinders state budget work

Iowa Politics-- Carter speaks at Carver

JohnCombest.com -- WashU students to hear from Obama

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch is mum on gay union stance

Quorum Report -- Weapons bill OK'd by House

Sayfie's Review -- Legislature rejects 'guns at work' bill

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Thompson woos Congress

WisPolitics.com-- Ethics Board accuses Ziegler

Rescheduled from Monday, when it was rained out.

On Friday, April 20, 2007, Hillary Clinton will travel to New Brunswick, NJ, where she will deliver a speech at Rutgers University as part of the 50th anniversary celebration of the Eagleton Institute of Politics and the 35th anniversary of Eagleton’s Center for American Women and Politics. The topic of the speech is "Because Politics Matters: Women and Public Leadership."

A month ago, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning said he had no intention of running for Senate unless incumbent Chuck Hagel stepped down.

But Bruning now says that Hagel's decision no longer matters.

LINCOLN—Attorney General Jon Bruning today said Senator Chuck Hagel’s recent vote in favor of a strict troop withdrawal deadline, and public comments calling the impeachment of President Bush an option have provided him with significant reasons to consider running for U.S. Senate regardless of Senator Hagel’s plans.

“Senator Hagel voted with the Democratic leadership against President Bush on the most important issue facing our country,” Bruning said. “His comments made it clear that he thinks impeachment of the president is an option. These are drastic and dramatic shifts away from the Republican Party, our President, and the people of Nebraska.”

....

“Given Sen. Hagel’s vote and public comments, I have to seriously consider running for this seat regardless of what Sen. Hagel does,” Bruning concluded.

Don't construe this lovey-dovey picture of Rep. Adam Putnam and Fred Thompson on the cover of today's Roll Call as an endorsement.

Putnam is playing around. In late February, he attended a high-profile event at the Mayflower with ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney.

Putnam spokesman Ed Patru said Putnam hasn't endorsed anyone, privately even. "When he endorses someone, you will know," Patru said.

The poll finds that the percentage of those surveyed who would definitely not support Sen. John McCain has nearly doubled and is nearly a majority -- 47%. He's become as polarizing as Hillary Clinton, at least to partisans. But only 41% of independents say they would definitely not support him.

Among independents -- Definitely would NOT support
Romney: 53%
Clinton: 51
McCain: 41
Edwards: 39
Giuliani: 35
Obama: 29

In the Republican primary, McCain's support has leveled off at about 21 percent. When Fred Thompson is included in the question, Rudy Giuliani receives 33%. Without Fred Thompson, he takes 37%. Last month, Giuliani was at 44%. (Giuliani is the second choice of a plurality of Thompson supporters).

Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton still holds a sizable lead over Barack Obama, and her lead holds even among strong supporters of the war.

Also: "Clinton, the Democratic leader, has 59 percent “strong” support in her party, compared with 45 percent “strong” support among leaned Republicans for Giuliani."

Finally, here's ABC's Gary Langer on party affiliation:

"The Democrats may also take some hope from recent trends in political affiliation. As reported in an April 16 analysis of other results of this poll, self-identified partisanship has shifted from an even split between Democrats and Republicans in 2003 to a four point Democratic edge on average from 2004-2006, widening to a 10-point Democratic advantage so far this year. Nonetheless, plenty of Republicans have overcome that kind of gap to win the presidency in past years."

Updated: Lynch tells the AP he'll sign the bill if it passes the Senate.

According to New Hampshire Public Radio, the state senate has scheduled a vote on civil unions (or "spousal unions," as NH calls them) for next Thursday, ending a suspensful two week period where the state house passed hill appeared to be in limbo. This being New Hampshire and civil unions being a major cultural trigger point, here's a brief closer look.

Lynch has stratospheric approval ratings. He opposes gay marriage. It's unclear whether he thinks "spousal unions" are equivalent to state-sanctioned marriage -- too equivalent, that is. Privately, NH Dems say that he has indicated that he will sign the bill into law if it passes the Senate.

Pro-spousal union forces hoped that the Senate, led by Sylvia Larson, a major Hillary Clinton supporter, would schedule a vote on the legislation immediately after it passed the state house in early April. It appeared as if the vote would take place last Friday; it was delayed.

A few theories:

1.Lynch doesn't want the civil unions bill to define his legacy, and so he's hoping it wil get passed amid a cacophany of other bills. At the very least, he didn't want it to be the first bill that he signed.

2. Lynch doesn't want to risk his political capital on the bill.

3. Lynch wants the state senate to pass his constitutional amendment dealing with education and the civil unions bill is stuck amid the wheeling and dealing.

Lynch has three options when the bill comes to his desk: sign it, veto it, or let it become law without affixing his signature to it.

Remember: Howard Dean signed Vermont’s Civil Union bill in the middle of the night without any fanfare. President Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage bill under similar circumstances. [MARC AMBINDER]

In the latest news in the VA Tech shootings, NBC received a package from Cho Seung-Hui. Here's how Brian Williams opened the "Nightly News":

Williams: "We now know what the Virginia Tech gunman was doing during that two-hour period between shootings on campus. He was compiling before going to the post office and mailing via overnight mail what can only be described as a multimedia manifesto, containing video, still pictures and a lengthy document to NBC Headquarters -- this very building -- here in New York. The envelope was sent from Blacksburg, Virginia on Monday morning. And looking at a copy, you can even see the handwriting of the clerk checking it in at 9:01 a.m. But because the gunman had the wrong zip code -- and there are three different scratched out attempts at it, along with Rockefeller Avenue and not Rockefeller Plaza in New York -- the zip code had to be corrected and it didn't arrive here until today. An alert New York City Postal Service employee spotted the return address and he spotted the return address name 'Ishmael' and brought it to our attention by hand. When the package arrived on the desk of our news division president today, the first thing we did was call federal authorities. Tonight, they have the original envelope. This one we've been showing you is a color copy. We have been poring over a copy of the contents we made. It has taken hours and we are still going through it" (NBC, 4/18).

NBC's Pete Williams, on Cho's package: "In a separate written document, he includes 29 photos he apparently took of himself. He looks like a normal, smiling college student in only the first two. In the rest, he presents the stern face and strikes the pose that was very likely what his victims saw later on Monday. In 11 of the pictures, he aims handguns at the camera, likely the very ones he bought in the past two months. In his 1,800-word diatribe, he expresses rage, resentment and a desire to get even. With exactly whom, he never says" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/18).

NBC News Pres. Steve Capus: "When it came in here, NBC security opened it and handled it appropriately and everybody who touched it wore gloves to keep everything intact. And we immediately contacted authorities and that set forward the chain of events. And we worked with the authorities this afternoon to make sure that they knew everything that we did. And they requested that we not release some of the information until they had a chance to take a look at it. And we honored that request."

More: "This is inside the mind of a murderer. And I don't know, that's the way I would characterize it. The authorities need to look at this and really dissect it and pick it apart. You look at the some of the writings and these are just long, ramblings. That honestly, are very hard to follow. ... And there is an extreme amount of anger. It is laced with profanity all the way through it. And it is very hard to follow. It really is."

Asked why Cho picked NBC, Capus: "No indication in the letter ... of why NBC" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/18).

More Capus: "We also had a lot of conversations here about the sensitivity of all this and whether it would be appropriate to release it. And, you know, we sat on this for hours while we had all those conversations all day long."

Capus: "There's definitely some things that I don't think are appropriate to see the light of day. And we're holding off on some of that. And we're making determinations about what more can and should be released" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/18).

Brian Williams stopped "Scarborough Country" to discuss the net's decision to air portions of the package:

Williams: "Here we were, straddling the line between being almost duty bound to broadcast the greatest single piece of advancement in the largest ever piece of gun crime in the United States and holding back on some of this that may have, shall we say, negative social consequences, knowing that these broadcasts don't air in a vacuum."

More Williams: "We all understood here the fact that we are really completing his thesis by airing this at all. And that was, this was his statement from the grave, released perversely between shootings to a news organization. We don't know why we were chosen. It was addressed to no one in particular; no one particular is mentioned in this. This is his statement from the grave. He wanted to be heard. We're allowing him to be heard in a limited way, because it advances maybe our understanding of why 32 people were killed along the way during one day, the last day of his life" (MSNBC, 4/18).

And on the "Today" show this morning, Matt Lauer and Meredith Vieira explained NBC's decision to air some of the footage. They also noted they were scheduled to talk some of the family members of VA Tech victims, but those guests cancelled because NBC aired portions of Cho's manifesto.

NOTE: All the other broadcast and cable networks showed portions of the package Cho sent to NBC (Hotline viewing).

Hotliner Tim Sahd reports:

Said Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson, exiting a get-to-know-you session on Capitol Hill this p.m.: "I wanted to come over and see old friends, meet new ones and listen and see what was on their minds."

53 members came to see Mr. Thompson. (Redstate says there was 63).

Rep. Zach Wamp spoke to reporters.

On fundraising issues: “He was not afraid, at all, of not having money, not in this climate in terms of his campaign. And he didn’t think it was too late. He knew there was a window, and he was not going to go outside of that window.

Wamp, on the timing of his announcement and the workings of his campaign: “He said ‘I have the ability right now to do certain things you can’t as a candidate.’ And that’s why it’s special he’s doing it his way. He said ‘I’m not going to follow the consultants’ path here because they’ve been wrong too many times. I’m going to follow my heart and this is going to be a different approach and I think people are ready for a different approach. And that’s why I’m not here because I want to be here, I’m here because there’s a need.’ I really believe he thinks the man and the times are lining up.”

On the field: “Fred Thompson actually has the ability to unite America, which our guys were saying was sorely needed.”

“They’re not getting the traction they need. They’re good people but frankly the race started so early that the momentum has been lost by some of them and people are looking for an alternative and they’re looking for more stature, they’re looking for someone who is presidential. Maybe it’s a time where our country is looking for somebody who didn’t crawl all over everyone else to try to become president.”

On social issues: “The conservatives say he checks the boxes but he also transcends our party. He reaches out to the middle. He brings Reagan Democrats back to our party. He has appeal that other candidates simply don’t have.”

If he’s running: “The man that came to see us today, in my view, is preparing to run for president.”

Three Democrats have promised to attend the Iowa Democratic Party's major fundraiser, it's Hall of Fame dinner, in early June. The other three who were invited -- Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Barack Obama and Gov. Bill Richardson -- have not.

IDP chairman Scott Brennan did not mince implications: "It is obvious that Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and John Edwards take the First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses very seriously and their attendance at the Hall of Fame is a sure sign of the importance of Iowa in selecting a Democratic Presidential nominee.”

This is unusual, but it is not inexplicable. There will be plenty of chances for Iowa Dem activists to compare candidates side-by-side, and a paltry peformance at an early cattle call can't really hurt. Biden will be in New Hampshire that weekend. The others may have more pressing engagements. We're a ways away from January of 2008.

The 1,000 or so activists who show up will notice who did not. The party uses this fundraiser and October's Jefferson-Jackson dinner to raise the $1M or so it takes to hold the caucuses. Candidates generally help out. [MARC AMBINDER]

Now that John Breaux and Mitch Landrieu are out of the running for LA GOV, are state Dems -- and voters at large -- ready to move on to a greener field?



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

Somehow, we missed the extraordinarily provocative words of Defense Sec. Robert Gates , as reported this morning by the Washington Post:

The debate in Congress . . . has been helpful in demonstrating to the Iraqis that American patience is limited. The strong feelings expressed in the Congress about the timetable probably has had a positive impact . . . in terms of communicating to the Iraqis that this is not an open-ended commitment."

Does that not justify the actions of the Democratic Congress? Does not that not undermine the Bush Administration's argument that the debate itself is sending precisely the most unhelpful signal possible to the Iraqis? And doesn't this undermine the general Republican contention that the Democrats really have no power -- constitutional or moral -- to influence the course of reconciliation?

Sen. Barack Obama is the first Dem '08er to pick up on the remark:

"After the President has repeatedly ignored the will of Congress and the American people, his own Secretary of Defense now recognizes that the only way to pressure the Iraqi government toward a political settlement is to make clear that American troops will not be in Iraq forever. President Bush has had a long history of ignoring the advice of his commanders on the ground, but let’s hope that he follows the advice of his Defense Secretary so that we can finally begin the process of ending the war in Iraq in a responsible way.”

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

It's Jim Webb's Dem party. We recognized this in 11/06, when voters returned a decidedly different Dem majority to the Hill; reaction to the tragic 4/16 shootings in Webb's VA confirm it. But is it Giuliani's GOP?

-- Empowered by red-state freshmen named Webb, Tester, Shuler and Ellsworth, anti-gun Dems sounded defeated following the gun massacre. Carolyn McCarthy called new gun controls a "tough sell." Rosa DeLauro: "We tried and it didn't succeed." Lloyd Doggett: "We're not going to take this kind of political damage bringing up something that would never become law." Even Chuck Schumer, the DSCC chair, demurred.

-- Dem silence, echoed in the netroots, stands in marked contrast to the howling debate Giuliani sparked 4/14 in IA, where he urged GOPers to "get beyond issues like" abortion. One pro-life GOPer responded: "Apparently, we're supposed to just 'get beyond' the murder of 3,000 innocents every day in America." Hardly the voice of defeat.

-- With some regional exceptions, guns and abortion once defined each party's base. For the GOP, it apparently still does. Basking in their newfound power, have Dems moved on?

Washington, DC -- "This decision marks a dramatic departure from four decades of Supreme Court rulings that upheld a woman's right to choose and recognized the importance of women's health. Today's decision blatantly defies the Court's recent decision in 2000 striking down a state partial-birth abortion law because of its failure to provide an exception for the health of the mother. As the Supreme Court recognized in Roe v. Wade in 1973, this issue is complex and highly personal; the rights and lives of women must be taken into account. It is precisely this erosion of our constitutional rights that I warned against when I opposed the nominations of Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito."

From Sen. Barack Obama:

“I strongly disagree with today’s Supreme Court ruling, which dramatically departs from previous precedents safeguarding the health of pregnant women. As Justice Ginsburg emphasized in her dissenting opinion, this ruling signals an alarming willingness on the part of the conservative majority to disregard its prior rulings respecting a woman’s medical concerns and the very personal decisions between a doctor and patient. I am extremely concerned that this ruling will embolden state legislatures to enact further measures to restrict a woman's right to choose, and that the conservative Supreme Court justices will look for other opportunities to erode Roe v. Wade, which is established federal law and a matter of equal rights for women.”

"The Supreme Court reached the correct conclusion in upholding the congressional ban on partial birth abortion. I agree with it."

As Soren Dayton asks, going forward, will the story be about judges? Or abortion?

We'd bet Rudy wants it to be about judges. Everyone else wants it to be about abortion.

"Today, our nation's highest court reaffirmed the value of life in America by upholding a ban on a practice that offends basic human decency. This decision represents a step forward in protecting the weakest and most innocent among us."

“I am very pleased that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled to uphold the ban on partial birth abortions,” said Brownback. “This ban was enacted to put an end to one of the most grotesque forms of abortion, and it is completely in line with the respect for life that is at the very heart of our Constitution. This is a great step forward for our nation’s citizens, born and unborn.”

The U.S. Supreme Court by a 5-4 decision today ruled that the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act is constitutional. The Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act was passed by Congress and signed by President Bush in 2003.

Brownback continued, “I applaud the Court for finding that the constitution ‘expresses respect for the dignity of human life,’ and hope that this decision signals the Court’s willingness to revisit and reverse Roe v. Wade.”

John Edwards:

""I could not disagree more strongly with today's Supreme Court decision. The ban upheld by the Court is an ill-considered and sweeping prohibition that does not even take account for serious threats to the health of individual women. This hard right turn is a stark reminder of why Democrats cannot afford to lose the 2008 election. Too much is at stake -- starting with, as the Court made all too clear today, a woman's right to choose" (release, 4/18).

From Sen. John McCain's statement:

"Today's Supreme Court ruling is a victory for those who cherish the sanctity of life and integrity of the judiciary. The ruling ensures that an unacceptable and unjustifiable practice will not be carried out on our innocent children. It also clearly speaks to the importance of nominating and confirming strict constructionist judges who interpret the law as it is written, and do not usurp the authority of Congress and state legislatures. As we move forward, it is critically important that our party continues to stand on the side of life."

To whom do you think that last sentence was directed?

From a statement:

"I commend the United States Supreme Court for upholding the nation’s ban on partial-birth abortions. This decision sends a clear message that the United States values life and has no tolerance for this gruesome, abhorrent way to take a life. There is no place for partial-birth abortions in this country, and I am pleased the court upheld the law passed by Congress."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates


AZ Political News-- House OKs bill targeting gangst

Capitol Fax-- Contradictory argument?

Colorado Pols-- Suthers to launch identity theft education ...

Doc's Political Parlor-- Daily News

Georgia Political Digest-- Stem cell bill clears House panel

Iowa Politics-- Anti-discrimination bill stalled in House

JohnCombest.com -- McCaskill owes over $191,000 for race

NhNewslinks.com -- Lynch is mum on gay union stance

Quorum Report -- Senate panel votes to toughen no-pass, no-play

Sayfie's Review -- Senate bill sets early primary

Tennessee Politics Blog-- AT&T bill clears Ssbcommittee

WisPolitics.com-- State IT jobs bust budgets audit finds

5 to 4, with Kennedy writing the majority

Dems "got over" gun control -- a majoritarian issue that paradoxically loses them votes, so why can't Republicans get over abortion -- a minoritarian issue that wins them votes in certain instances but might cost them their most attractive presidential candidate? That's the Giuliani argument, anyway.

First, the political establishment seems to care more about abortion than gun control, and the media does as well.

Second, the abortion debate really covers a wider range of ranges, all yoked together under of rubric of questions about human nature. As Katherine Luker has noticed most astutely, cultural conservatives and cultural liberals organize their worlds in fundamentally different ways.

Third, abortion as an issue cuts across socioconomic and regional cleavages. Gun control -- generally --has been a preoccupation of coastal political elites and citydwellers.

Fourth, as Jeanne Cummings notes, the pro-gun lobby is extraorindarily powerful and has a successful track record of beating incumbents who stray -- perhaps the best record in politics. The pro-choice and pro-life groups are organized and powerful compared to almost all interest groups BUT the NRA. It's a question of magnitude.

Still, abortion's salience is overplayed. Some polls we've seen suggest that only a third of Republican primary voters consider it a litmus test issue. Well more than half are pro-life, but enough pro-lifers are willing to vote for pro choicers in certain circumstances. Usually, however, Republican candidates are pro-life, so the trend isn't immediately evident. And this proposition has never been tested on a presidential level. [[MARC AMBINDER]

Pardon the headline, but there's a point to it:

Sen. Hillary Clinton has released a list of her prominent gay supporters to the Washington Blade.

Commenting on identity politics has always made us a little uncomfortable, but one wonders why Democrats go out of their way to characterize Democrats who are gay as "gay Democrats." We've always found it weird that Democrats load up their fundraising staffs with specialists who reach out to gay donors as "gay donors." Perhaps it's a more efficient way to raise money?

Steve Elmendorf, Ethan Geto, Fred Hochberg, Billie Jean King -- all are proud to be affiliated with HRC as Democrats as opposed to being Gay Democrats (tm), right?

Some folks on the list entered politics as gay rights activists. Others entered politics to help Democrats. Billy Jean King was a famous tennis player.

Alternatively, no Republican presidential candidate has unveiled a list of gay Republicans who support them, but that's an entirely different matter altogether. [MARC AMBINDER]

The results will be fascinating, no?

10,000 Kossacks have already voted.

John Edwards is winning online straw polls, Barack Obama is placing and Bill Richardson is creeping up.

Is Clinton doomed?

Is there a correspondence between the average reader of DailyKos and the average Iowa caucus goer? The average participant in the New Hampshire primary? The average New York primary voter? The average labor voter? The average single woman voter? The average white working class Dem voter? Is there a correlation between those blog readers who vote in online straw polls and those blog readers who vote in primaries?

In the sense that the blogosphere is a self-contained constituency, and it is, even if its range spans across several other identity groups, one would need to demonstrate not only that Demcorats read blogs, or that blog-readers vote, but that blog-readers are somehow more accurately aligned with actual primary voters than other constituencies.

It seems to me that a more satisfying and ultimately more precise way to describe the power of the Democratic blogosphere is to characterize them as the "leading edge" of base opinion. In the same way, national presidential preference polls, which Hillary still tops, are trailing indicators.

Certainly, Clinton remains unpopular with the netroots, and that's become a large problem for her candidacy. But it's a leap to say that her entire presidential aspirations are doomed because she's lost favor with Markos and his readers. [MARC AMBINDER]

Once again cable news focused on the VA Tech shootings, particularly on Cho Seung-Hui and his motives. And Pres. Bush and Laura Bush did interviews with the three broadcast nets. In each interview, he was asked about gun control:

Asked if there will be a nat'l debate on gun control, Bush: "I do. Yeah. I mean I think when a guy walks in and shoots 32 people it's going to cause there to be a lot of policy debate. Now is not the time to do the debate until we're actually certain about what happened. And after we help people get over their grieving, but yeah I think there's going to be a lot of discussion" (ABC, 4/17).

Asked if there should be stricter gun control: "I haven't had time to reflect nor do I know all the facts that took place. I do know that now's the time to help heal. ... There's ample time for the debates that follow" (CBS, 4/17).

More: "There's going to be plenty of time for debate and a political discussion and a policy discussion. Now is not the time. I'm more interested in helping people heal right now. And that's why we're here. ... There is going to be a lot of discussion like there has been after other incidents about what is the right policy and the wrong policy. The right thing now is for this county to pray and help these people heal."

NBC's Williams: "Is this not a part of homeland security? By that, I mean, the early reporting indicates that these guns may have been legally purchased. This young man may have waited the mandatory month-long waiting period, and if it turns out that it's the classic profile of a loner who exhibited trouble, isn't that a trend that deserves now more resources?"

Bush: "Well, I don't know what you are talking about spending money on, but it is certainly something people ought to pay attention to. In other words, and that's one of the things that after the Amish school shooting, we had a symposium, and one of the things the experts told us was that adults need to be paying attention to different kind of behavioral patterns. You can't predict obviously, but you can discern if somebody needs help and/or is the type of personality that may act up. This is a difficult situation here, Brian, because there is 20,000-something kids who go to school here, and 10,000 professors or whatever. I mean, it's a lot of people in and out."

More: "There will be ample time for these kinds of discussions. Trust me, there is going to be a lot of debate. And I understand it and will participate in it" (NBC, 4/17).

There is no Democratic front-runner. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all have a plausible claim on the nomination.

The usual metrics are all jumbled. Clinton leads the money race, leads in New Hampshire, and tops the national polls. Obama led in one recent South Carolina poll we saw, in media love, and in enthusiasm. Edwards has the tightest message, the best organization in Iowa, and the lead in Iowa.

These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Democratic Party primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Republican rankings.

1. No One -- Help wanted. Perhaps the "winner" of the first debate will nudge above the rest.

2.(tie) Hillary Clinton -- New York senator Last Ranking: 1 -- Has a solid lead in national polling ever meant so little, so early? We're not sure the Clinton camp sufficiently steeled itself for the inevitable bruise of Obama's ability to match her in fundraising. The Clinton machine was built by hard work, but also by contingency and circumstance: the magic of doing the right things at the right time. To win, Hillary has to sell herself as a doer (in contrast to Obama's "hoper") and a trailblazer (will she alienate men?). She must also figure out how to survive the early debates without the aura of invincibility that might have kept her rivals from shooting buckshot in her direction and the aura of celebrity that, just six months ago, would have guaranteed that every crowd her campaign built was large and inspired. The good news, though, is that somebody else now has to share the burden of expectations.

2.(tie) Barack Obama -- Illinois senator - - Last Ranking: 2 The Obama campaign has been slow, steady and methodical. At this moment, it doesn't matter that Obama lacks a health care plan, a comprehensive economic policy, any subtle foreign policy vision or even a concrete proposal to move the Middle East peace process forward. But the idea of Obama is worth, it's safe to say, about 20 points in the national polls, and that is not sufficient. Just like Clinton, Obama has earned the privilege to fight for the nomination. That means he must subject himself to the indignities of a presidential campaign. Does he have the plod?

2.5. John Edwards -- Former North Carolina senator Last Ranking: 3 -- From the perspective of pure politics, the cancer announcement and its aftermath were handled adroitly. Edwards has had a good quarter, but he's still stuck between tiers, as our colleague Stu Rothenberg eloquently put it. We are impressed by Edwards' enduring lead in Iowa, where crowds have shown up to Clinton and Obama events, processed them and haven't changed their minds. Still, the Edwards folks have to fortify themselves for the inevitable Iowa falloff. Can they prevent the media from overreacting? Dick Gephardt couldn't survive once he lost his Iowa inevitability. Can Edwards? His final target is Clinton; his immediate enemy is Obama. As you watch him in the debates, keep that in mind.

Continue reading the Democratic race rankings.

It's celebrity endorsement time, and you can bet every '08er wants to snag a slice of this spotlight...



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

From today's Hotline:

"Of course we are going to be participants in that conversation."

-- WH spokesperson Dana Perino, on a national discussion about gun control policy, 4/17

The broadcast networks are notorious for wanting the big "get" -- the interview that defines a news story. And in the case of the Virginia Tech story, two nets are going online in search of the "get," posting interview requests to Facebook:

From a posting by ABC's "GMA": "Our thoughts are with everyone affected by the horrific tragedy at Virginia Tech. In our ongoing coverage, we want to speak with people that knew Cho Seung-Hui. We have anchors and producers on campus that would love to meet with you."

From a posting by NBC's "Dateline": "We understand how difficult this is, and want to help share your story. 'Dateline' NBC urgently looking for anyone who knew Seung Hui Cho. We have produces and camera crews nearby ready to talk to anyone who can supply information about him and his movements leading up to the tragedy. We are attempting to produce a thoughtful and informative report that might shed some light on the tragedy and possibly help prevent something like this from happening again." [EMILY GOODIN]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates


AZ Political News-- Gov. may be dragged into freeway fight

Capitol Fax-- Covering up for the bosses

Colorado Pols-- Obama, Romney, and don't forget Tom Tancredo

Doc's Political Parlor-- Senate may remove amdts to PAC-to-PAC bill

Georgia Political Digest-- Gun bill heads to Senate floor

Iowa Politics-- Polk owes $93,701

JohnCombest.com -- Blunt, Nixon raise money at record-setting pace

NhNewslinks.com -- N.H. voting bills clarify student voting rules

Quorum Report -- Lawmakers seek to curb drunken driving

Sayfie's Review -- Lawmaker backpedals on apology

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Corker: Allow campaigns to approve...

WisPolitics.com-- Thompson apologizes to Jews for comments

The Washington Times reports this morning that ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner contributed $$ to Sen. Barack Obama.

Warner spokesman Lars Anderson e-mails:

"I just wanted to let you know that the assertion in the Washington Times story this morning that Gov. Mark Warner gave money to Obama is NOT true and we are working to get it corrected."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton e-mails to let us know that Sen. Barack Obama's postponed today's foreign policy speech.

The daily browse is a window onto the soul. That's what the philosophers say, anyway. So what newspapers or magazines were important enough for the '08 campaign companies to spend money on subscriptions?

Tooting our own horn a bit, it seems that the three major Republican canididates spent more than $35,000 combined on various National Journal subscriptions, according to the disbursement sheets. Mr. Giuliani seems to have spent the most – more than $13,000.

Giuliani's campaign also paid for subscriptions to TimesSelect, the Wall Street Journal online, OpinionJournal (two times at $4 a pop), and the hard copy of Roll Call.

Romney's campaign spread the most money to news organizations, paying for subscriptions to the Atlantic (thank you), the Weekly Standard, the New Republic, Time and the Howey Political Report.

John McCain's campaign likes the dead tree versions of newspapers. They paid for hard copy subscriptions to the New York Times and the Washington Post.

1. A USA Today/Gallup poll has Giuliani leading McCain 35-22% and Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 31-26%. Giuliani leads HRC 51-46% in a head-to-head matchup. According to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, 35% approve of Pres. Bush as pres., and 62% disapprove. The poll also finds 53% approve of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, 35% disapprovw.

2. Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee is an expert on kids who kill. He wrote a book about the subject called "Kids Who Kill."

3. Mario Cuomo is critical of Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The two senators aren't specific enough for the former New York governor.

4. Here's the full transcription of Tommy Thompson's Jewish "joke" as recorded by someone who was there:

I'm sort of a reform public servant, 38 years in the government. I'm in the private sector and for the first time in my life I'm earning money. You know that's sort of part of the Jewish tradition and I do not find anything wrong with that. I enjoy that.

TV last night focused on the shootings at Virginia Tech:

FNC's Colmes: "More questions are emerging like, why was there a two-hour lapse in between shootings? Why weren't students notified earlier of the danger? And who was the shooter? Was he a student?" ("Hannity & Colmes," 4/16).

LG Bill Bolling (R-VA): "Right now, the focus is on getting the investigation completed. ... We need to find out exactly what happened when, and what actions were taken by university officials and when. And all of that will be determined in the course of this investigation. And, when that investigation is completed, university officials, I am certain, law enforcement official and others, we will sit down and do a comprehensive review of the situation to find out exactly what happened" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/16).

Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA): "There are unanswered questions and I think the university is trying to put the things in the right order. The most immediate thing to do now is to make sure that all of the victims are identified and that every next of kin receives notification as promptly as possible. That is the first priority, and then dealing with those grieving family members and students" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/16).

FNC's Van Susteren: "There's a person of interest. And they're rather vague about what that means in terms of a person of interest. I think there's just someone they want to talk to. But they certainly have not said here that there is an accomplice out there with a gun. They merely sort of piqued our interest at a news conference a short time ago and mentioned a person of interest" ("O'Reilly Factor," 4/16).

CNN's Cafferty: "The gun control debate will likely heat up again in the wake of the Virginia Tech shooting. Tragic events tend to become politicized. And a tragedy of this magnitude, the deadliest single shooting rampage in U.S. history will likely trigger a new round of debates over our constitutional rights to keep and bear arms" ("Situation Room," 4/16). [EMILY GOODIN]

Politics is pausing.

First, Sen. John McCain's communication director, Brian Jones, informs us that McCain's schedule for tomorrow has been canceled. We also received this statement from Giuliani campaign communications director Katie Levinson:

"Our nation mourns for those who were killed, prays for those who survived and stands shoulder to shoulder with the families, friends and loved ones of all touched by this horrific tragedy. “Tomorrow is a day for prayer, reflection and unity. It is a time for our great country to come together. Mayor Giuliani has cancelled all political events tomorrow."

Now -- here's what Ex-Sen. John Edwards and Elizabeth Edwards sent to their campaign e-mail list tonight:

We are simply heartbroken by the deaths and injuries suffered at Virginia Tech. We know what an unspeakable, life-changing moment this is for these families and how, in this moment, it is hard to feel anything but overwhelming grief, much less the love and support around you. But the love and support is there. We pray that these families, these students, and the entire Virginia Tech community know that they are being embraced by a nation. There is a Methodist hymn that gave us solace in such a moment as this, and we repeat its final verse here, in hopes it will help these families, as it helped us:

In our end is our beginning; in our time, infinity;
In our doubt there is believing, in our life, eternity,
In our death, a resurrection; at the last, a victory,
Unrevealed until its season, something God alone can see.

Our dearest wish is that this day could start again, with the promise of these young people alive. Knowing that cannot be, our prayer is for God’s grace and whatever measure of peace can be reached on this terrible day.

John and Elizabeth Edwards

The Virginia Tech shootings are, for the moment, topic A in the presidential race. The major presidential candidates have issued statements, and one of them, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, has canceled a fundraiser in Virginia scheduled for tomorrow. (Late word from Congress: the Senate Judiciary Committee's grilling of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales has also been postponed).

Inevitably, as inexplicable as this shooting might turn out to be, politicians will discover long-standing problems and then propose solutions. Remember that ex-President Clinton wanted Congress to close the so-called "gun show loophole" that allowed the two Columbine killers to purchase their weapons -- that hasn't happened.

Though the national gun control debate has effectively been tabled since 2000, it may return to the agenda, again. Already, Romney and ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani have been pressed on their 2nd amendment credentials and the degree to which federalism will govern their federal policy proposals. Mr. Romney has altered his position on gun laws, and Mr. Giuliani seems to have softened his support for federal regulation. Will Democrats bite? Americans favor some type of gun control in principle But many Democrats believe that the issue cuts against them with swing voters, and the evidence is equivocal.

Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama stuck mostly to expressions of grief, which seems about right. Obama did allow, at the end of his remarks this afternoon, that he thinks "we have to do some soul searching to find out are there ways we can prevent these things from happening again."

One candidate can scratch the "do something" itch immediately. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico ordered a stem-to-stern review of his state's higher education security policies. [MARC AMBINDER]

Update: seems that Sen. John McCain has won five South Carolina straw polls: Spartanburg, Dillon, Florence, Clarendon and Greenwood.

Over the weekend, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney won unofficial county straw polls in Horry County, York County and Orangeburg County, South Carolina. (Results after the jump).

This isn't an accident: Romney's South Carolina campaign is targeting these county meetings and packing them with allies. Straw poll victories are always worth a good newspaper clip, they help the campaign test its field organization in key counties, and they help generate momentum.

Romney has won six of the straw polls so far. John McCain, by our count, has won three, atlhough McCain advisers are quick to say that they're organizing elsewhere and don't need artificial bumps like these.

Major upcoming GOP straw polls include:

April 16:  Anderson And Pickens Counties
April 19:  Richland County (with guests Romney, Giuliani, Hunter, Huckabee, Cox, Brownback and Frank Keating (for McCain).
April 21:  Greenville
April 28:  Lexington
 

2. Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani unveiled his national finance executive committee today and a list of three dozen regional finance chairs. Bigger names include Carl Icahn, ex-VA Gov. candidate Jerry Kilgore, MD developer John C. Reith, ex-IL Gov candidate Ron Gidwitz, Nat'l Assoc. of Wholesaler-Distributors pres. Dirk Van Dongen and Paul Singer, general parter of Elliott Associates.

3. It appears as if Ex-Sen. John Edwards outraised Sen. Hillary Clinton in Western New York. [MARC AMBINDER]

Sen. John McCain, in discussing President Bush's tax cuts today, uses a distinctive pronoun.

"When we passed those tax cuts, we increased spending as well. That's unacceptable, and the best way to protect the tax cuts and balance the budget is to stop spending money on things that are not the business of government and on programs that have outlived their usefulness or were never useful to begin with. …”

Well -- trouble is, McCain did not vote for those tax cuts -- either the $1.3 trillion '01 round or the '03 round. In 2006, he voted to extend them, arguing that to vote against an extension would be tantamount to a tax increase. Originally, he said the decided to vote against the income tax rate reductions because they favored the rich.

More recently, he says he opposed the tax cuts then because they were not accompanied by spending cuts and threatened to swell the deficit. But he has also hinted that the amount of revenue produced by those tax cuts was higher than he expected.

Read in that context, the "we" makes a little more sense:

When we passed those tax cuts, we increased spending as well. That’s unacceptable, and the best way to protect the tax cuts and balance the budget is to stop spending money on things that are not the business of government and on programs that have outlived their usefulness or were never useful to begin with."

Despite having Arthur Laffer on staff, McCain is not a Jack-Kemp supply sider. He's not a tax-raiser, but spending has always been his hobby horse. McCain devotes most of his speech today to a call for spending reform.

“The government spends more money today than ever before. Since Ronald Reagan left office, government spending adjusted for inflation has increased $2,500 for every man, woman and child in the country. Wasteful spending has gone from irresponsible to indefensible. And we’re not spending it on programs that are any more effective than they were twenty years ago. My goodness, when disaster strikes the government isn’t even ready to deliver drinking water to dehydrated babies or rescue the aged and infirm trapped in a hospital with no electricity. I promise, if I’m elected President I won’t let Congress waste anymore money on programs that aren’t reviewed or that need to be reformed or abolished or on projects that serve no greater purpose than to deceive voters into re-electing their local Congressman.

A few other interesting lines:

On corporate welfare and eminent domain:

"I’ll appoint judges who won’t allow our legal system to be abused by meritless class action suits that increase the costs of every product we purchase and every job we create; judges who won’t let your property be confiscated to build a new shopping mall without your permission. But I won’t use government to make your profits for you. Every American and every American business can do that for themselves.

On Social Security and Medicare, McCain appears not to rule out any solution:

“If I’m President, I’ll submit a plan to save Social Security and Medicare, and I’ll ask Democrats in Congress to do the same. We’ll listen to what people outside government suggest as well. I’ll work on a bipartisan basis to make the hard choices; to protect the retirement security of the American worker, and the growth of the American economy. And if Congress is afraid to make those choices, then they can just let me do it. I’ll take the heat.

On unemployment insurance:

“If I’m elected President, I’ll work with Congress and the states to overhaul unemployment insurance and make it a program for retraining, relocating and assisting workers who have lost a job that’s not coming back to find a job that won’t go away. We should replace our outmoded and redundant programs with a single system. We can help people get back on their feet more quickly with jobs in the private sector, which offer the best training for a changing marketplace. We can strengthen community colleges and technical training, and give displaced workers more choices to find their way back to productive and prosperous lives.

Greg Stevens, a Republican media strategist and partner in Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm, has died. He was 58.

Blast faxing still exists as a tactic: Sen. Chris Dodd's campaign spent mopre than $1,500 on it.

Obama's campaign spent $750 on interpreters for the deaf and hard or hearing.

Obama's prodigious telemarketing operation burned through about $200K.

Sen. Hillary Clinton paid her pollster/strategist Mark Penn $277K, Obama reported spending: $106,500 on polling, and Ex-Sen. John Edwards reported spending nothing.

The Edwards campaign spent more than $16K on paraphernalia at "Progressive Store" in Rancho Cucamonga, CA.

From today's Hotline:

"Being rich and famous just doesn't get you as far as it used to."

-- Jim Gilmore, quoting "Law & Order" D.A. Arthur Branch, release, 4/13

Ex-Sen. John Breaux sent this e-mail to Patton Boggs colleagues this morning:

As you may know I was actively considering a run for Governor of my home state of Louisiana. I want to especially thank everyone at Patton Boggs for the support and encouragement they gave me as we considered this decision.

I have made the decision not to run, as I did not want the campaign to be based on my eligibility status. The real challenges facing Louisiana are too great to be diverted by a campaign focused on where I'm from, with the possibility of my being in the courthouse only weeks before the election.

I look forward to our continuing to work together on challenges and opportunities ahead. Again my sincere thanks to everyone!

Don't read too much into this.

We understand that Sen. John Kerry in no way meant to re-open the door to a possible '08 presidential run.

On Wednesday, ex-Sen. Fred Thompson arrives on Capitol Hill for a private meeting with Republican House members, and if you believe Rep. Zach Wamp, he might exit the meeting with more congressional supporters than any current candidate.

Not to be outdone or overlooked, we hear that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney plans a luncheon fundraiser than same day featuring his entire roster of congressional endorsements. He's holding court at the American Gas Association at noon. Individuals are asked to contribute $2300 and PACs can pay up to $5000.

Five senators have endorsed Romney, along with more than 20 members of Congress.

Rep. Marcia Blackburn (R-TN) is listed on the Romney invitation. Will she show up at both candidates' events? [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates


AZ Political News-- Pro-immigrant march returning

Capitol Fax-- Question of the day

Colorado Pols-- Monday open thread

Doc's Political Parlor-- Who’d fall on his sword for the Governor?

Georgia Political Digest-- Lawmakers get weary in overtime

Iowa Politics-- Lawmakers narrow agenda as session winds down

JohnCombest.com -- Don’t botch wage law, Blunt says

NhNewslinks.com -- After boom, cigar store owners fear bust

Quorum Report -- Conservative goes his own way

Sayfie's Review -- Presidential hopeful Obama campaigns in Tampa

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Edwards 1st to Rally in TN

WisPolitics.com-- Voting officials work to fix flaw

Strategy whiz Soren Dayton makes an interesting observation:

There are several theories about Feb. 5th, but one is that there will not yet be a decisive winner, and the fight for delegates will shift dramatically after that point. Many of the remaining delegate selection contests will be caucuses in which organization matters. Romney could be laying the groundwork for that. They do run a very methodical campaign. Too bad about the candidate…

4th WriteThru...

There's been a change in the senior ranks of Ex-Sen. John Edwards.

Jennifer Swanson, Edwards's finance director, has left the campaign. Democratic fundraising sources said that Swanson announced her decision to leave late last week, about two weeks into the second fundraising quarter. Swanson was not fired, sources said.

Late Thursday, Swanson posted this little-noticed blog item on Edwards's website:

Hello, everyone. First, thank you again for everything you did to make our first quarter a success. Our campaign gains momentum every day as more and more Americans learn about John Edwards and his bold plans to change America. I want to take a moment to announce that I will be moving on from my job as National Finance Director of the campaign and that Brian Mixer has been named the new Director. I joined the campaign to lead the finance team through the first critical quarter of this year, knowing I couldn't move to Chapel Hill, but I couldn't be more pleased to be giving you the news that Brian is going to be doing this job! Brian and I have worked together for John and Elizabeth for a number of years and have been committed to this cause with you for a long time. He returned to Team Edwards earlier this year to head the Edwards NY fundraising effort after a brief hiatus to attend Wharton Business School. Having worked with Brian for so long, I can't overstate how much I admire his commitment and all the work he has done here. Please join me in wishing him the best as he goes to Chapel Hill to lead the staff effort there and to work with all of you around the country. Again, I want to thank you for all your support and look forward to continuing to be involved in John Edwards' campaign to build the America we all believe in.

Swanson was chief of staff of Edwards's finance dept. in '04. Loyal to the Edwards family and close to both Elizabeth and John Edwards, Swanson was among those senior Edwards staffers who was unable to move to North Carolina. Both Edwardses were happy with Swanson's performance as finance director, the sources said.

Brian Mixer, a former fundraising for ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner, starts shortly as the new finance director.

Swanson is a former deputy finance director of the DCCC.

An Edwards spokesman said the blog post spoke for itself. [MARC AMBINDER]

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain by three points in the latest CNN presidential preference poll. That's with both Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich in the race.

Without Gingrich, Giuliani's lead increases to six points -- 30 to 24. Without Fred Thompson. Giuliani leads 31 to 26. It seems to us that in CNN's samples, McCain's floor is around 23 or 24%. (The Los Angeles Times had McCain in the teens last week, FYI).

The upshot:

CNN/OPINION RESEARCH CORPORATION POLL
April 10-12
Registered Republicans'
Choice for Nominee in 2008
Giuliani 27%
McCain 24%
F. Thompson 11%
Romney 10%
Gingrich 8%
Pataki 2%
Brownback 1%
Hagel 1%
Paul 1%
Tancredo 1%
T. Thompson 1%
Gilmore * ASTERISK INDICATES LESS THAN ONE HALF
Huckabee * OF ONE PERCENT
Hunter *
Unsure 13%
Sampling error: +/-5% pts
QUESTION: (REPUBLICANS

Sen. Barack Obama

$25.8M raised total

$24.8M primary

Number of contributors: 104,000

Spent: $6.6M

CoH: $18.2M

Debts: $190,000

Sen. Hillary Clinton

Total receipts: $36M

Total raised: $26M

CoH total: $31M

CoH for primaries: $24M

Total raised for primaries: $19M (approx)

Disbursements: $5M

Contributors: 60,000

Debts: $1.8M

An interesting perspective from Michael Turk, former eCampaign director for the RNC, as posted to his Facebook account:

The Politico's Jonathan Martin posts a breakdown of Mitt's numbers, as claimed by the campaign. If you look beyond the claim, the numbers just don't add up.

Total Raised for the quarter: $23, 434, 634

Total Disbursements: $11, 570, 981

Money Raised Online: $7, 206, 216

Total Donors: 32,074

Itemized ($200+) donors: 12,236 (38%)

Non-itemized donors: 19,838 (62%)

The Hotline breaks that online number down further.

$3,365,625.59 in pure and simple website fundraising, and

$3,840,591.00 raised through Quick ComMitt, our online fundraising pledge entry tool

The average online gift for both the Bush campaign and the Kerry campaign (and most of this year's contenders) has been in the range of about $100, but let's be generous and say that could go as high as $150. That puts the number of online donors at somewhere between 22,430 and 33,656 donors. We know it wasn't 33,656 because he only has 32,074 total donors. If we assume it was 22,430 people giving an average of $150, that means the remaining 9,644 made an average gift of $2,081.

If 19,838 people gave him less than $200 (let's assume it was $1 less for purposes of giving him the benefit of the doubt), that would preclude the 22,430 $150 donations. That also means a maximum of $3,947,762 out of $23 million consisted of small dollar donations.

If you assume the overwhelming majority of of the $3,365,625 in "pure and simple" online fundraising was small dollar donations (which you have to because it takes a lot of $25 contributions to balance $2,300 to get a $100 average), Romney would have to have the most successful Internet fundraising effort ever run by anyone (including Democrats), together with the worst direct mail and telemarketing campaign in the history of politics. (Telemarketing and direct mail donors are typically small dollar gifts) There is no way that number represents "pure and simple" website giving. The math just doesn't support the claim.

The campaign is using SiteCatalyst to track it's web traffic. If they really want me to buy that number, they're going to have to show me the unique visitor report that supports their online claims. On the Bush campaign, the ratio of unique visitors to donations worked out to about 100 to 1. From our calculations, Kerry was probably around the same.

If for every 100 visitors, you receive one online contribution. To generate the 22,430 donations, they would have to have a minimum of 22,430,000 visitors through their site in the last 90 days. That works out to about 250,000 unique visitors per day. Given their Alexa rank of 101,590, I also don't see that they have the traffic to sustain their numbers.

Some other numbers to keep in mind:

Obama, 50,000 online donors, $6.9 million

Edwards, 30,000 online donors, over $3 million online

Clinton, probably around 30,000 online donors, $4.2 million online

Romney, with a number of total donors that is on par with or less than the "online donors" of the three Democrats raised more than all of them online? I doubt it.

More likely, the campaign is driving their large donors and event attendees to give via credit card on the website in order to pad the online number. They could still claim that as "website fundraising" and keep it and the COMMitt fundraising separate. It's likely that the average gift was astronomically high, meaning there is almost no chance this is a "grassroots outpouring" in favor of Romney. (which is confirmed by the very skewed ratio of donors to dollars raised)

This is a large dollar candidate, not an Internet candidate. No matter how you cook the books, Mitt, that dog doesn't hunt, either.

Hotline ace Mike Memoli e-mails:

Breaux says no!

Mitch Landrieu is probably next logical choice for Dems (unless the don't want Landrieus on the ballot in back-to-back years). Chris John was another possibility. Foster Campbell is already running.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani declined this week to offer an opinion about whether Alabama should fly the Confederate Flag outside its state capitol building.

“One of the great beauties of the kind of government we have, which is a national/federal government, is that we can make — on a broad range of issues — we can make different decisions in different parts of the country,” Mr. Giuliani said. “We have different sensitivities, and at different times we are going to come to different decisions, and I think that is best left up to the states.”

A reader urged us to flash back to 1998, when Giuliani visited Columbia, South Carolina.

Giuliani called Gov. David Beasley "courageous" for his efforts to remove the flag from the top of the state's capitol building.

From the New York Daily News on 9/3/98:

During his visit, the mayor also praised Beasley, who is leading a controversial bid to permanently remove the Confederate flag from the capitol dome. Those involved in that effort, Giuliani said, took "a very courageous stand . . . at great political risk." "There is disagreement in South Carolina," the mayor said, noting that local Republicans tried and failed to have the flag moved to a Confederate museum, "and South Carolina has to work that out."

A New York Post news brief from the day reported this:

"COLUMBIA, S.C. - Mayor Giuliani, venturing into the Deep South on another of his "non-presidential" swings, yesterday urged South Carolina to remove the Confederate flag from atop its state capitol."

The strain of consistency here is that Giuliani said the decision was best left to each states. But in the case of South Carolina, before he had conservatives to court, he was comfortable expressing his opinion.

What changed?

Total receipts in the first quarter:

Total receipts were $23,434,634.25, all for the Primary.

The $23.4 million figure is comprised of not only contributions and the governor's loan, but several other items:

Net contributions $20,737,149.05

Loan from Gov. Romney $2,350,000.00

Refunded contributions $245,539.18

Vendor refunds $99,420.01

Interest income $2,426.01

Other refunds $100.00

Number of donations and contributors:

36,538 donations, 32,074 unique donors

Top 10 states for donations:

In order: California, Utah, Massachusetts, Texas, Michigan, New York, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Connecticut

Breakdown of itemized (over $200) vs. un-itemized (under $200) contributions: 38%, or 12,236 donors, were itemized (over $200); 62%, or 19,838, were un-itemized (under $200)

Internet Contributions: Over $7.2 million was raised online ($7,206,216.59). This breaks down into:

$3,365,625.59 in pure and simple website fundraising, and
$3,840,591.00 raised through Quick ComMitt, our online fundraising pledge entry tool

Disbursements

Cash on hand: 11,863,652.79

Investment rate: Our investment rate was 49.37%. Total receipts were $23,434,634.25. Total disbursed was $11,570,981.46, leaving $11,863,652.79 cash on hand.

Now Mitt Romney refuses to weigh in on South Carolina's fetal ultrasound legislation.

''I would like to see each state be able to make its own law with regard to abortion. I think the Roe v. Wade one-size-fits-all approach is wrong.''

But governor: is it a good idea? A bad idea?

Maine Democrats say the endorsement of Republican Sen. Susan Collins by Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman underscores a central argument in their challenge of the two-term senator next year: the war in Iraq. A political adviser for Democratic Rep. Tom Allen -- an unannounced but likely candidate against Collins -- said Lieberman's support for the war and Collins' support for the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., tie her to the Bush administration's politically unpopular war policy. "I think the Lieberman endorsement is significant. For us, it's a gift," the Allen adviser said. "It paints a picture of Susan Collins with people like Lieberman and McCain, who support the war."[MARK WEGNER]

Do the Netroots love the man, or the plan on Iraq? Is Giuliani tossing away his political capital on state Capitols? And if Fred Thompson's in, what's a poor consultant to do? All this and more on the big show.



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

ReGo Echo? -- Hillary Clinton's tax-week address on gov't reform sounds Gore-ish; can she manage expectations better than he did?

Another Joe Blow -- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I/Decide) backs ME's Collins (R) against any Dem challenge. Anyone really that surprised?

Not Put To Rest -- Sen. John Warner still doesn't quash retirement rumors, says he's "seriously considering" running again. He only raises $500, but remember -- he started off slowly in '01 too. And WV's Byrd announces re-elect bid. For 2012.

Imus Tipper -- In the post-Imus world, will there be new appreciation for Tipper Gore's work to clean up the music industry?

The movie: September Dawn.

With stars: Taylor Handley, Jon Voight, Lolita Davidovich, Tamara Hope, Terrence Howard .

The plot:" The film is a love story set against the 19th century massacre of a wagon train of settlers in Utah at the hands of a renegade Mormon group."

The Mitt Romney connection:Parley Pratt was Romney's great-great-grandfather. He was murdered. The massacre was seen as a response to his murder.

Release date: May 4.

From today's Hotline:

"Maybe this is the warm-up period where we allow ourselves a little fluff and frivolity."

-- Elizabeth Edwards, on the "cult of personality" that follows Clinton and Obama, AP, 4/12

Rudy Giuliani's presidential committee raised two thirds of its $15M haul in March and ended the first fundraising quarter with nearly $11 million to spend in the primary, according to Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime.

About 28,000 people contributed, and 64% of the contributions were less than $100. But the overwhelming majority of Giuliani's money came from major donors. Giuliani's small donor base is small.

Finance chair Roy Bailey said the campaign has 40 state finance chairs signed up to raise money and hundreds of bundlers.

Two Gallup questions about taxes:

Do you consider the amount of federal income tax you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low

Date             High    About right  too low  no opinion 
2007 Apr 2-5      53        41           2           3

Do you regard the income tax which you will have to pay this year as fair?

                  Yes, fair     No, not fair     No opinion

2007 Apr 2-5          60            37              3

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates


AZ Political News-- Teeth added to DUI bill

Capitol Fax-- Just a few things…

Colorado Pols-- Kucinich vows to accept nomination on picket ...

Doc's Political Parlor-- Riley & Beason’s marriage of convenience

Georgia Political Digest-- $20.2 billion budget clears House committee

Iowa Politics-- GOP objects to 2 more appointees

JohnCombest.com -- Mitt Romney fundraiser last night at Hunter Farms

NhNewslinks.com -- Sex offender law changes are approved in Senate

Quorum Report -- Voting malfunction or voter malfunction?

Sayfie's Review -- Crist makes push for insurance bill

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Metro Under Pressure to Move Election on ...

WisPolitics.com-- 82 felons may have voted in state

1. How many journalists sent e-mails to White House officials' name@gwb43.com accounts? How many journalists currently covering the e-mail story did this?

2. Rudy Giuliani's campaign will share details of his first quarter fundraising today. We'll get some detailed numbers from Sen. John McCain tomorrow.

3. All the major Republican candidates are heading to Des Moines Saturday night for the Polk County Lincoln Day Dinner. It's the first GOP Iowa cattle call, so expect cheer analyses.

4. From a White House pool report: "President began the public part of his Friday the 13th by attending a prayer breakfast. Seems prudent."

Andrew Sullivan implies that we take issue with federalism. Certainly not. There are certainly a great many questions, most of them cultural and provincial, that are best decided by state and local governments. And Rudy Giuliani might even be correct, in an ultimate sense, that the topics he’s been confronted with are best deliberated and adjudicated by state legislatures.

We’re a politics blog, and so we’re making a political point.

Giuliani is also deliberately using federalism as a cover to avoid having to reveal his personal opinion about topics of longstanding cultural controversy.

It’s one thing to say that the topics of slavery apologies, or gun control, or even abortion, are best handled stateside. But saying so does not magically obliterate a presidential candidate’s duty to explain why said issue is best grappled with by the states, and most importantly it is no excuse whatsoever for the candidate not to give his personal opinion. Personal sentiments are vital clues to character. And Rudy’s candidacy is predicated on characterological attributes: his force of will, his personal tolerance, his candor, his strength of convinction, and his leadership abilities.

By scooping up so many issues into his state right’s satchel, Giuliani dodges his responsibility as a presidential candidate to explain to the electorate why he believes that the right to abortion is not absolute, or why he believes that states can fly the Confederate Flag, or whether he believes that, as abhorrent a symbol as that flag may have become, states certainly have the “right” to fly it. That last example is instructive. No one we know of has ever asserted that Congress should ban the Confederate Flag. It is a dodge – a plain dodge – to simply say that it’s a state’s rights issue. No one disputes that. Rudy has decided he does not need to tell Alabamans whether he personally endorses the idea.

In 2000, John McCain was asked about the flag in South Carolina. In a thin voice, he proceeded to tell reporters that it was a state issue and he wouldn’t get involved. McCain now admits that he was intellectually dishonest. There was never any doubt that South Carolina had the right to fly the flag, but by omitting his personal opinion, McCain avoid the political consequences of acknowledging that the flag evoked very painful and even hurtful feelings in black South Carolinians.

Give Mitt Romney credit. In 2002, he told Massachusetts residents that while he personally was pro-life, but he said he recognized that both the law and the state’s cultural habits would not countenance any significant changes to abortion law. (Disregard, for the sake of this argument, anything else you’ve read about Romney and abortion).

By not saying something like

I think the flag is divisive, and I don’t like it. But Alabamans can do what they want.

And instead saying only “Alabama should do what it wants,” Giuliani implies that each side’s arguments have equal merit – which, in an of itself, is a moral judgment whether Giuliani realizes it or not. [MARC AMBINDER]

Don Imus was fired by CBS, met with the Rutgers players at the NJ GOV mansion and Jon Corzine was hurt in a car accident on the way to that meeting. It was a heck of night for cable TV:

Washington Post's Robinson: "I think CBS kind of felt out there alone. CBS is giving up X million dollars a year in revenue from this decision, and clearly, they decided that brand and good will were worth more than whatever revenues Imus was making for them" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/12).

CNN's Feyerick: "The Governor was going to be the host of this private meeting. However, on his way here, he actually got into a car accident. He is now in surgery for injuries he sustained to both his legs and his ribs. So, right now, he's not even the governor. There's an acting governor" ("AC 360," 4/12).

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), on whether journalists and pols gave Imus a pass by appearing on his program: "I don't think so. In a way, you mentioned, I made an announced of my presidential candidacy on that program. One of the reasons is because one of the other networks, when they offered to have me on, said they would maybe give me one minute or two minutes, maybe that morning. And we talked to the Imus program. And they said, well, you can have 20 minutes here to explain why you're doing this, and the opportunity to get heard by a lot of people" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/12).

FNC's O'Reilly: "I think there's a karma thing in play here. I think, over the years, Don Imus has hurt a lot of people. And this is the end for him. It will be interesting to see if NBC now will stop the hate that they have been peddling in on their cable networks for two years" ("O'Reilly Factor," 4/12). [EMILY GOODIN]

Which bit of common knowledge matters most for the '08 WH candidates -- guns or groceries? Or, could the hair primary decide it all? Take your best shot.



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

A certain Virginia Democrat is quietly and steadily laying the groundwork for a statewide run -- and it isn’t Mark Warner. Amid rumors this week that Warner is being urged to run for Senate, Del. Brian Moran hired one of the former governor’s longtime advisers, Mame Reiley , as a fundraising consultant for his Leadership for Virginia’s Future PAC.

Moran, the Caucus chairman and brother of Rep. Jim Moran (D), has his eye on the governor’s mansion, but has indicated that he would run for lieutenant governor if Warner chooses to seek his old job.

Moran made a point last year of traveling the Commonwealth and raising money for Democrats, at one point bringing 2nd District candidate Phil Kellam up to Langley for an event. And the Alexandria Democrat will venture down to Wakefield, in the swamps of Tidewater, for Shad Planking next week.

The hiring of Reilly at this early point, a full two years before the election, serves notice to other Democrats considering a run that Moran intends to lock up the nomination early. One potential opponent is state Sen. Creigh Deeds, who lost a 2005 election for attorney general by less than 500 votes.

Deeds had solid support in rural Virginia, but ran behind other Democrats in NOVA, which is Moran’s base. A primary battle between Deeds and Moran would pit a country, rural Democrat against an urban, Northern one. Deeds indicated in a 2006 interview that he would not rule out a run, but he seemed tepid about the prospect. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

From today's Hotline:

"Senator McCain has been in armed conflict, and Senator Obama hasn't."

-- McCain adviser Mark McKinnon, "Tucker," MSNBC, 4/11

The latest Gallup polling on party identification provides more evidence that a few months of Democrats in Congress hasn't solved the Republican brand woes.

Gallup says: "During the first quarter of 2007, an average of 33% of Americans identified as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 38% as independents. Several things are notable about these numbers. -- First, 28% is the lowest percentage of self-identified Republicans in any quarter since the second quarter of 1999."

Caveats: The GOP has suffered. But the Democratic brand has not correspondingly improved. In fact: "Despite its advantage over the Republicans, the percentage of Americans identifying with the Democratic Party actually
went down this past quarter. After averaging 35% in each of the last three quarters of 2006, Democratic identification is now similar to what it was at the beginning of 2006."

There's an academic debate about the fluidity of party ID, but we haven't seen any polling that would suggest that more Americans are identifying as Democrats. We've seen polling to suggest that fewer Americans are comfortable telling call-takers they are Republicans.

Finally: "The consequent rise in independent identification from 35% in the final quarter of 2006 to 38% now, pushed that percentage to the highest level it has been since the last quarter of 1999, when 38% also identified as independents."

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani has taken to using a mantra -- let states decide controversial issues -- to avoid having to voice his own opinion on said controversial issues. (The Giuliani campaign hates it when we call it a "mantra.") But here's why the dodge won't work for Giuliani.

In a liberal democracy, tolerance generally morphs into, and usually equals, assent or agreement.

By sanctioning a state's ability to decide something, Giuliani is extending the zone of what's morally permissible. One of Abraham Lincoln's chief arguments against the Kansas-Nebraska Act was that, in allowing states to decide on slavery expansion, the federal government was affirming the morality of the pro-expansion side." If slavery is morally permissible in Kansas, it's morally permissible in Nebraska, too. If not, someone had to explain why

Giuliani does not explain why New York State has a moral obligation to fund a poor woman's abortion and Oklahoma does not.

He does not explain why it is tolerable for Alabama to display the Confederate Flag, something, incidentally, it no longer does.

He does not explain, in this latest incidence, whether states are obligated to apologize for slavery, or whether they are not.

Giuliani's position on each suggests, rightly or not, that these questions remain contested and are unresolved in his mind. So -- like it or not, his federalist mantra constitutes a moral stance on these issues. [MARC AMBINDER]

About that MoveOn straw poll... Obama and Edwards topped the MoveOn straw poll on Iraq, but of those who actually watched the online town hall meeting on Iraq, Obama finished third.

Do voters like Obama more than they like his positions?

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates


AZ Political News-- Arizona prepares for first execution in seven years

Capitol Fax-- Just a few things…

Colorado Pols-- Nervous GOP turns up defensive heat.

Doc's Political Parlor-- B’ham news urges calls on PAC-to-PAC ban

Georgia Political Digest-- 75,000 voter registration cards found in trash bin in Atlanta

Iowa Politics-- Bill would add 5 percent to satellite television bills

JohnCombest.com -- Kinder hopes another actor can restore magic to GOP

NhNewslinks.com -- Civil unions draw debate

Quorum Report -- Count me opposed to steroid bill

Sayfie's Review -- One-armed bandit helps pay college tuition

Tennessee Politics Blog-- Interpreting the Thompson cancer announcement

WisPolitics.com-- Lawmakers debate color-coded license plates for sex offenders

The question: "Which candidate do you believe would be best able to lead the country out of Iraq?”

MoveOn member vote, overall:

Obama 27.87%

Edwards 24.84

Kucinich 17.18

Richardson 12.26

Clinton 10.70

Biden 6.19

Dodd 1.05

YouTube has put Mitt Romney in the Spotlight -- er, or maybe the hot seat is a better word for it. The online video giant launched their YouTube You Choose '08 Spotlight yesterday where they'll showcase one WH '08 candidate per week asking users to answer a specific question. In turn, users can submit video responses to the candidates questions. For the first edition, Romney asks YouTube users: "What do you believe is America’s single greatest challenge and what would you do to address it?”

The clips get some pretty prominent attention at the top of the News and Politics Category page, which has certainly helped Romney gather the 14K plus views since the video was posted less than 24 hours ago. So far all the other WH '08 candidates have signed on except for Tommy Thompson and Jim Gilmore (though YouTube News and Politics head Steve Grove said his company is in contact with these campaigns). Grove also said the campaign picked Romney first because of scheduling, but it's an obvious advantange because of this first round of press.

In the hours since Romney's video has been posted, users have been honest about what they think of his question -- and Romney himself. Of the 100-plus written comments thus far, some users have contributed constructive comments like "How about answer how long we will stay in Iraq if you are elected? I fear that if a Republican is elected, then we will have four more years of Iraq" to this little quip: "My favor for Pres is Fred Thompson but if he dosen't run you will have my vote."

It's going to be interesting to who gets the most negative attention and just how many generic questions these pols can come up with to ask the general public without getting too wonky. Or as one user puts it: "The questions for these political YouTube videos need to be more specific. General topics leave no room for addressing specific problems in a specific way."

On June 2, the Iowa Democratic Party holds a major fundraising dinner -- one of the two planned ahead of the precinct caucuses. The party spends about $1,000,000 to put on the caucuses, and it relies on these two dinners -- the other being the Jefferson-Jackson jamboree in November -- for funding. What will lure approximately 1000 Iowa Democrats to a ballroom in Cedar Rapids?

Party chair Scott Brennan is a charming bloke. Alas, few will pay to hear him speak.

Normally, presidential candidates would trip over themselves to spend 10 minutes with 1,000 of the party's most committed foot-soldiers. In Eastern Iowa, to boot -- at the center of a newly Democratic House district in the most populous quadrant of the state! These folks actually organize the caucuses. Recruiting them -- impressing them early -- is pretty crucial.

But to date, only two Democrats have signed up. The party's spokeswoman, Carrie Giddins, wouldn't tell us which ones had agreed to attend and which candidates have yet to commit. One is Sen. Chris Dodd, per a Dodd spokesman.

We suspect that the other campaigns are playing chicken. We'll go if you go. Or -- if you go, we won't?

What are the risks? If all the candidates attend the dinner, it'd mark the first time that Iowa Democrats would be able to compare them, each after the other. Some candidates don't want to be compared, right now. A good performance at a Hall of Fame dinner can really give a pop -- or a pow -- to a candidate.

"Activists expect the candidates to show up at these events," Brennan said.

A Clinton spokesman said they the campaign has yet to commit. An Obama spokesman said they'd have something for us "soon." An Edwards spokeswoman said the former Senator's campaign hasn't decided. A Biden spokesman said the Senator will be attending a convention of New Hampshire state Dems instead.

They'd better decide soon. If the invites go out and no big names are included, the Iowa Democratic Party might have to scramble to find a celebrity guest speaker. Al Gore is always available... [MARC AMBINDER]

A DNC web ad misspells Baghdad. (There are two "s"s in misspell, right?) Twice.

Update: A DNC spokesman says a draft video accidentally made it to YouTube, and he points us to the real version, here.

Don Imus may no longer be on cable, but he dominated the TV talk:

NBC News Pres. Steve Capus, on why MSNBC will no longer be broadcasting "Imus": "I've received hundreds, if not thousands of emails, both internal and external, with people with very strong views about what should happen. I've listened to those people with their comments. And many of them are people who have worked at NBC News for decades, people who put their lives on the line covering wars and things like that. These comments were deeply hurtful to many, many people. And we've had any number of employee conversations, discussions, emails, phone calls. And when you listen to the passion and the people who come to the conclusion that there should not be any room for this sort of conversation and dialogue on our air, it was the only decision we could reach."

Asked if he was caving in to advertisers demands: "I understand the people are going to view it that way, and I only say that is not why this decision was made. This decision was made after listening to the people who work for NBC News, who have placed a trust and respect the trust that America has given us" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/11).

Barack Obama made the TV rounds:

Obama: "I believe that NBC should not be having hosts like Don Imus who are making derogatory statements towards and women and minorities. I've got two young daughters who I hope will be athletes. And, you know, the notion that somehow they would be degraded and insulted, and that that would pass as humor, and that NBC would be running that over the public airwaves I think is atrocious" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/11).

Asked if he would go on "Imus" again: "No, I would not. I was on there once, actually, after the Democratic national convention. I spoke about my book briefly. That's been my only experience on the show. And he was fine when I was on that show. But I don't want to be an enabler or be encouraging in any way of the kind of programming that results in the unbelievably offensive statements that were made just a few days ago" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 4/11).

Chris Dodd, asked if he will go on "Imus" again: "We know what the charges are. Don Imus has apologized for them. I take his apology to be a sincere one. ... His actions will show the depth of that sincerity. And I will make my decisions based on that in the coming days" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/11).

Rev. Al Sharpton: "I think MSNBC has done the right thing. Now, I would hope CBS, who I'm going to meet with tomorrow, will do the same thing" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 4/11).

Rev. Jesse Jackson: "I'm glad MSNBC did step up. But we can't stop here. Because whether it is on NBC television, or whether it is and CBS Radio, or even music, we must raise a higher ethical standard for all the music, because we cannot allow these images of violence to continue, because if you can call a woman a ho and she will submit to it, that's the first step toward domestic violence. That must stop" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/11). [EMILY GOODIN]

Sen. John McCain 's campaign retooling continues.

Manager Terry Nelson is trimming some of the organization's vestigial edges to pare down costs and more efficiently distribute key staff. Contrary to rumors, the campaign is not shedding weight in order to slow down its cash burn rate.

Nelson has decided to eliminate several staff positions from the campaign's May budget, some yet to be filled. In addition, several campaign consultants will see their contracts modified. Others currently on retainer will work for the campaign on a per-project basis.

Key departments, including political affairs, communications and the field staff in early primaries states -- were spared, and some instances, are still hiring.

A campaign aide characterized the changes as "minor adjustments."

After having raised $12.5 million, a solid but below-average sum for the Republican field, the campaign revamped its finance operation, bringing in Republican lobbyist and fundraising wizard Tom Loeffler to oversee fundraising, and asking Republican strategist Steve Schmidt to look after spending more carefully.

During February and March, McCain's campaign hired a staff of more than 120, and it staged several expensive bus trips through Iowa and New Hampshire. A trip through South Carolina is planned for next week.

Because a detailed accounting of McCain's spending hasn't yet be released, it's not clear whether the campaign began to pay the legion of consultants it has signed up.

The campaign aide declined to say how much McCain spent during the first quarter although McCain advisers have emphasized that the campaign's monetary difficulties revolved around the tasks of raising money, rather than the rate at which the money was spent.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney raised $24M and spent $12M.

McCain's first quarter filings will be available on Saturday. [MARC AMBINDER]

Get your barn-storming boots ready. John Edwards will kick off a week-long rural outreach tour this Monday from his birth town of Seneca, SC, that will blend major policy speeches with country, string-pickin’ rallies.

Edwards will unveil his rural economic recovery agenda, which includes creating new jobs and businesses in rural areas, and helping those areas with schools, health care and family farms.

The SC event will be followed with a policy presser at a location TBD before the campaign heads to Nashville for a country and bluegrass concert at Ryman Auditorium. From there, the campaign will shoot up the Blue Ridge on Thursday for a rally in Roanoke with the bluegrass band Dr. Ralph Stanley and His Clinch Mountain Boys.

Edwards will cap the week with a swing through Iowa on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The tour fits into to Edwards’ strategy of trying to be the candidate with the detailed policy prescriptions, but it also sends the symbolic message that he is the only Dem nominee with Southern know-how and roots. At the helm this effort, of course, is David “Mudcat” Saunders who worked with the NC senator in ’03.

Two things to be on the lookout for – Some good Carolina v. Tennessee BBQ battles, and the reaction of Southern Dems. Will the tour win him some SC love? Will VA’s junior senator notice the rally in his back yard? [PATRICK OTTENHOFF]

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg is floating a gov't takeover of the primary process -- but is the sky really going to fall on Feb. 5? Don't put all your eggs in one basket.



Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

The conservative blogosphere has never taken much of a shine to Sen. John McCain. Campaign finance reform, media cuddling, global warming. The sense that he's a "caesarist" and a technocrat.

But conservative bloggers loved his speech on Iraq today, and, in a blogger conference call, McCain seems to have won them over, for now. The speech was simple, direct, subtle and rooted in McCain's experience, not in the tilled soil of a speechwriters mind. It may be standard-setting -- perhaps the most powerful plea a war supporter has ever sent to the American people since the troop surge began. Has any other presidential candidate written a speech to persuade -- importune -- an audience to change their minds? Right now, McCain's primary opponents are busy rousing the converts with poll-tested applause lines and briefing-book ready sound bites. McCain doesn't have to.

An ICYMI from McCain's campaign follows the jump.

The Hotline today published a CBS News poll about McCain and the war. The war is not popular, McCain is associated with the war, and Americans do not agree with McCain. McCain's standing with liberals and independents has suffered. Yet:

Republicans – whose Presidential nomination McCain is seeking – do agree with him on the war: six in ten Republicans say the war is going at least somewhat well and seven in ten say the U.S. is likely to succeed in Iraq.

McCain is representing, ably so, the collective opinion of the Republican primary electorate. If the war drives their vote, why would they choose a candidate who ignored Iraq? [MARC AMBINDER]

Flagging This -- How much longer can Giuliani use a states' rights defense to avoid taking positions on cultural issues?

O-versaturation -- Obama's fav ratings have dropped 10 points in a month, into HRC territory.

I.O.P? O, I See -- Pressure grows for Jeanne Shaheen to launch an NH SEN rematch, but she really likes her cushy Harvard job.

MoveOn.org is still polling members to determine "Which Candidate is best able to lead the country out of the war in Iraq?" but if early blogger reviews are any indication, Bill Richardson managed to separate himself away from the pack during 4/10's Virtual Town Hall Meeting on Iraq. The Blogometer recently pressed card- carrying netrooter Liberal Oasis about what a candidate would have to say on Iraq to win his vote for BloggingHeads.tv. Bill Scher stressed that the candidate who best convinced him they would leave no permanent troops anywhere in Iraq would get his vote.

Bill Richardson did just that 4/10 telling MoveOners he "would have no residual force whatsoever" in the country. MyDD's Chris Bowers responded: "With perfect clarity, that is exactly the line I have been looking for from Democratic candidates for President." Richardson has steadily improved his numbers in online straw polls, and this position would seem to only bolster that momentum. Will any of the Big Three join in Richardson's pledge?

Continue reading today's Blogometer.

From today's Hotline:

"It is certainly no respecter of persons and totally non-partisan."

-- Fred Thompson on cancer, RedState.com, 4/11

Well played.

The top banner on Hillary Clinton's website is devoted to Don Imus's comments about Rutgers. With a post entitled "Respect for Rutgers," Clinton invites visitors to her site to join her in sending the “young women of Rutgers a message of respect and support. Show them that we are proud to stand with them and for them."

HRC has said of Imus' comments: "Those women did not deserve those hateful and hurtful comments. I've been on the receiving end of his barbs, so I understand" (AP, 4/11). She has also noted: "I've never been asked to go on the show and I've never wanted to go on his show... and I certainly don't ever intend to go on his show" (Rosato, WABC, 4/11).

Here is Sen. Barack Obama's response to Sen. John McCain:

“Progress in Iraq cannot be measured by the same ideological fantasies that got us into this war, it must be measured by the reality of the facts on the ground, and today those sobering facts tell us to change our strategy and bring a responsible end to this war."

"No matter how much this Administration wishes it to be true, the idea that the situation in Iraq is improving because it only takes a security detail of 100 soldiers, three Blackhawk helicopters, and two Apache gunships to walk through a market in the middle of Baghdad is simply not credible or reflective of the facts on the ground."

"What we need today is a surge in honesty. The truth is, the Iraqis have made little progress toward the political solution between Shiia and Sunni which is the last, best hope to end this war. I believe that letting the Iraqi government know America will not be there forever is the best way to pressure the warring factions toward this political settlement, which is why my plan begins a phased withdrawal from Iraq on May 1st, 2007, with the goal of removing all combat troops by March 31st, 2008."

(Capsule summary: Iraq is and will be a long, hard slog; Americans oppose the war, and McCain knows it. But they are blind to the downside risks of withdrawing troops, especially now that there are "early signs" of progress. For the sake of the "broader struggle" between the Arab world and modernity, America must, must win this war.")

It's remarkable -- ballsy -- for a presidential candidate to tell the American people, on the most intractble and divisive issue of our time, that they are wrong and he is right. And that they ought to -- they must -- trust his judgment. Either this is hubris, or leadership -- tragic leadership, as E.J. Dionne might write. Some of McCain's opponents have proposed to us convoluted arguments purportedly demonstrating how McCain's speech today and his identification with the surge are convenient for his political aspirations, but... we're yet to encounter a convincing theory.

The following sentence might be overlooked, but it suggests or imposes on John McCain the burden of explaining what happens next if the new strategy does not work, which, as McCain himself acknowledges, is a possible.

Given our security interests and our moral investment in Iraq, so long as we have a chance to prevail we must try to prevail. As General Petraeus has repeatedly stated, it will be several months or more before we know with any confidence whether we can turn this war around.

Significant? Pres. Bush seems to brook no doubt about whether the war can be won; it must be; he does not publicly concede to the war's opponents what McCain is conceding here. "Whether" is an important word.

There is also this concession to reality, with emphasis italicized.

But whether or not al Qaeda terrorists were a present danger in Iraq before the war, there is no disputing they are there now, and their leaders recognize Iraq as the main battleground in the war on terror.

Later, McCain invokes Rwanda:

“To enumerate the strategic interests at stake in Iraq does not address our moral obligation to a people we liberated from Saddam Hussein’s tyranny. I suspect many in this audience, and most members of Congress, look back at America’s failure to act to prevent genocide in Rwanda with shame. I know I do. And yet I fear the potential for genocide and ethnic cleansing in Iraq is even worse.

And the end, he closes with a neat trick to shame Democrats into supporting funding for the war.

I hope Democrats in Congress will heed the advice of one of their leading candidates for President, Senator Obama, and immediately pass a new bill to provide support to our troops in Iraq without substituting their partisan interests for those of our troops and our country.

The full speech is after the jump.