On Eve Of First Debates, HRC, McCain Lead In SC**
** = if you believe that Zogby polls in SC are as reliable as other polls - -we are agnostic, being unaware of Mr. Zogby's methods.
Still, that's two recent polls we've seen showing HRC up in SC.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: An exclusive NewsChannel 15-Zogby presidential poll in South Carolina shows Arizona Senator John McCain leading the Republican primary race in South Carolina by a slim margin, and New York Senator Hillary Clinton showing strength in the first in the south Democratic primary.On the Republican side, McCain has 22 percent of likely statewide primary voters against 19 percent for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Former actor turned Senator Fred Thompson, who has not announced a presidential bid, scores third with 11 percent, ahead of former Massachusettes Governor Mitt Romney with 10 percent. South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who has said repeatedly he is not a candidate in 2008, places next with 8 percent. No other Republican candidate is above 2 percent statewide.
In the Democratic race, New York Senator Hillary Clinton is showing strength in the south with 33 percent of likely primary voters supporting her. Senator Barack Obama has 26 percent, former Senator and South Carolina native John Edwards is third with 21 percent. Edwards won the South Carolina primary in 2004. No other Democratic candidate is above 1 percent statewide.
Perhaps the most interesting thing in the poll is the strength of Clinton. She leads Obama among young voters 49 to 10 percent. Clinton's only weak area seems to be among male voters where she trails both Obama and Edwards by a slim one percent margin. However, Clinton enjoys a huge 40 percent to 25 percent edge with women voters over Obama, with just 18 percent for Edwards. Perhaps most striking is that 47 percent of South Carolina Clinton supporters say they are "unlikely" to change their mind by January. Only 38 percent of Obama's supporters are that loyal.
There are some bright signs for McCain. He leads every age category, and self-identified "born again" voters favor him over Giuliani 22-16 percent. McCain also has a double digit lead in the conservative upstate, where his presidential campaign effectively ended in 2000. McCain is beating Giuliani there 26 to 15 percent with Romney at 10 percent. The bad news for both McCain and Giuliani is that their support appears soft. Only 24 percent of Giuliani supporters and 18 percent of McCain supporters say it's "unlikely" they would change their mind by the primary.
NewsChannel 15 anchor Jim Heath, who has interviewed recently most of the presidential candidates, says the poll shows South Carolinians are already engaged in the presidential race. "Like Iowa and New Hampshire, the major candidates are coming to South Carolina and attracting hundreds of people to their events. We still have nine months to go, but voters here know the important role South Carolina plays in the nomination process, and they are taking that role very seriously."