May 2007

Gordon Gekko once told us, “Money itself isn't lost or made; it's simply transferred from one perception to another.”

We’re noticing that on the two major political futures markets -- the Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade -- investors are readjusting their expectations. Rudy Giuliani’s (R) shares have taken a dive in the last months despite his poll numbers only taking a dip. Meanwhile, investors seem to have bought into the Fred Thompson hype.

It’s not by any means scientific, and markets have been known to suffer from a herd mentality (what’s up pets.com), but money talks:

On InTrade, an exchange based in Dublin, Ireland, 2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI shares closed end of April at $32.00 while 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) shares closed at $15.20. Today, Giuliani’s value has dropped to $25.90/share while Thompson is up to $24.80.

(From Intrade FAQ: “Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring… Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying and selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.”)

Check out the charts after the jump. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF].

A number of Dem WH '08ers will head to the Crown Plaza Five Seasons Hotel in Cedar Rapids, IA, 6/2 for the IA Dems' Hall of Fame Dinner. But according to one Dem campaign, it looks like Hillary Clinton and John Edwards have some public relations work to do. The Clinton camp has reserved four blocks of parking space in front of the hotel for the entire day, while Edwards has rented a large parking lot across from the hotel for the entire weekend.

KCRG-TV9, Cedar Rapids' ABC affiliate, reported 5/30 this might pose problems for small businesses and Saturday Farmers Market attendees.

KCRG's Beth Malicki: "If you're headed to downtown Cedar Rapids for the Farmers Market this Saturday, good luck parking along First Avenue. ... The Cedar Rapids Coffee Company is located on First Avenue right across from the U.S. Cellular Center. They boast the best brew in town, but only if you can get there."

Cedar Rapids Coffee Company's Matt Ford: "We have a lot of drive through traffic they just stop in get coffee so they'll just go right on by us down the road to somewhere else."

Malicki: "The owner of a coffee shop called the city and complained and here's the compromise, they won't mark off these parking spots but there will be plenty other meters with hoods on them come Saturday" (5/30).

Clinton and Edwards should remember that all politics is local. Want someone's vote? Don't take away their parking space [KATHERINE LEHR].

LOS ANGELES – Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani both aggressively sought 90210 dollars 5/30 p.m. at competing Beverly Hills fundraisers, with the ex-New York mayor drum-beating against Clinton’s “old-thinking” call this week for tax hikes, writes David Finnigan.

From today's Hotline:

"It's going to be like the Academy Awards of presidential debates."

-- WMUR's Andrew Vrees, getting excited, New Hampshire Union Leader, 5/31

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Talk of the TV last night was focused on the Atlanta man under federal quarantine for tuberculosis and Fred Thompson testing the WH '08 waters.

FNC's Hume: "The actor and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson will move a step closer to a formal presidential campaign June 4th when he forms what's referred to as a testing the waters committee. This will enable him to raise money and hire staff without officially committing to run. Thompson's plans for a June campaign swing through early primary states are still only in the discussion stage and his advisors are quick to say he hasn't made a final decision about running, not yet" ("Special Report," 5/30).

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN), on whether Thompson is a candidate for sure: "Yes. I think this is a very important first step. ... I'm greatly encouraged, because, having run the draft organization for two months, we signed up over 30,000 people on our Web site to volunteer for him. Many, many members of Congress have been waiting for him to file something, so they could step out there with him. And I think we can do that starting next week. This testing-the-waters committee is Fred's way of letting people know that he's very, very interested in this; he's serious about it. And I think he's a man preparing to become a presidential candidate. And I think he, frankly, is what our base is looking for" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/30).

Washington Post's Milbank: "Let's get rid of this fiction now once and for all. These are just technical terms that the FEC sets up. He is in the race, and if he decides not to run at this point, he is pulling out of the race. So let's not grant him the cover of any of these sort of peculiar terms. He's running" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/30).

CNN's J. King, on which GOPer will be hurt the most: "They all need to worry, for different reasons. I have talked to several people in the McCain campaign today, who say, in the short term, their already struggling finance operation, the fund-raising effort, will likely be hurt by Fred Thompson. Governor Mitt Romney ... is trying to reach out to social conservatives. Many question his flip-flop, they would call it, on abortion. They're looking for a candidate. They say they will wait a little longer now and look at Senator Thompson. If you are Rudy Giuliani, you were the star in this race, the former mayor of New York City, the glamour of his leadership post- 9/11. Now there's a big Hollywood figure coming in, who could take some of the star quality away from Rudy Giuliani. ... Republicans are still looking. They're not locked in yet. Fred Thompson will freeze the race" ("PZ Now," 5/30).

Politico's Allen: "Very respected journalists have made the case that it hurts Romney most, that it hurts Giuliani most, and it hurts McCain most. So you can make any of those cases. But what's interesting is it shows how unsettled this field is" ("Tucker," MSNBC, 5/30).

CNN's Crowley: "He's got an eight-year record in the U.S. Senate. And you can pull out votes that hurt. It's why so many senators fail when they try to grab that brass ring for the White House. ... Candidates always look great when they're not running. Voters love candidates who aren't running. Once they're in the arena, that's when they start to pick apart the record and really see who voted for what when. So obviously any kind of paper trial is going to be rife with a number things for people to pick on. So it only gets harder from here when Fred Thompson jumps in" ("PZ Now," 5/30).

A FAMILY AFFAIR

John McCain appeared on the "O'Reilly Factor" last night to talk about immigration.

McCain, on the immigration bill: "Right now, it's de facto amnesty because we have 12 million people who are here illegally. ... We are doing everything short of deportation. We're talking about a 13-year period. We're talking about fines. We're talking about learning English. We're doing literally everything that I can think of to make sure that illegal behavior is punished" (FNC, 5/30).

Meanwhile, FNC's Van Susteren interviewed Cindy McCain in the McCain's AZ condo.

C. McCain, on J. McCain running again: "It's fine. I'm happy. It was, I tell you, it was a difficult decision for me, though. Because ... we'd been through it once and with our -- you know, kids were in motion and everything was going on and all that and so it was, for me it was a big decision, but I'm here and glad to be here."

On the family discussion prior to running: "We sat down at Christmas and, believe it or not, the kids have a lot of questions."

On why Cocoa the dog is J. McCain's favorite pet: "It's something about him. He thinks he looks like a circus dog. And so he just clicked with him" ("On The Record," 5/30). [KATHERINE LEHR]

From today's Hotline:

"I'm deeply concerned about America losing its soul."

-- Pres. Bush on the immigration debate, McClatchy, 5/29

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Aside from talk about Lindsay Lohan's DUI and Rosie O'Donnell leaving "The View," last night's TV focused on May being the deadliest month for U.S. troops in Iraq since Dec.' 04, as well as Pres. Bush imposing tougher sanctions on the gov't of Sudan. There was also a fair amount on WH '08ers:

CNN's Dobbs: "The middle class in this country making it to the top of the presidential campaign agendas, at least for today. Presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton campaigning in New Hampshire. Both Senator Clinton and Senator Barack Obama turning their attention to the plight of our embattled middle class. Senator Clinton attacked excessive corporate profits. Senator Obama unveiled a vision for health care" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/29).

Fortune's Easton: "I think the most interesting thing about these speeches was the extent to which both candidates borrowed from the No. 2 candidate we saw there, John Edwards. In the case of Hillary Clinton there was almost a 'to America' speech theme running throughout her remarks today. You know, the haves and the have-nots, the trickle-down hasn't occurred and how can we address that. She even talks about unions. ... Then Barack Obama borrowed from Edwards on the healthcare plan. The details are different, yes. But it involves both their healthcare plans are large government rolls that would be subsidized by business taxes and increasing taxes on individuals at the wealthy end. ... To me it's like they're all joined at the hip on domestic policy, in particular, and so the race starts to become who do you like better, who you trust better, who do you believe?" ("Special Report," FNC, 5/29).

WashingtonPost.com's Cillizza: "In the last two hours after Obama put out his plan, I got a statement from both Edwards and Clinton, both of whom expressed some skepticism subtly, but still skepticism that Obama's plan does not mandate universal coverage, that this would not cover everyone. ... That's the danger when you put out a big comprehensive plan. It gives a lot of people a lot of time to shoot at it. ... He has been criticized that his resume is too thin. When he comes out and puts out a policy proposal to show he has some depth to his position, people say it's wrong. ... So he's in a catch 22. He has to roll out some big policy proposals, but he also has to realize that he's going to have to weather some criticism from his opponents who don't think it's enough or think it's too much" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/29).

CNN's Bash, on why Obama and HRC are shifting to domestic issues: "It's one of the things that voters are yearning to hear about from candidates. Just being here in New Hampshire, certainly the Iraq War tops the list in terms of things that really give voters anxiety, but when it comes to issues close to home, the economy is right there behind it" ("Situation Room," 5/29).

ALRIGHT, WE GET IT

Al Gore was on "Countdown" last night to talk about his book, but conversation turned to WH '08.

Gore, on Newsweek reporting that a close friend and financial backer of Gore's says Gore is 50-50 about running: "Whoever that was doesn't reflect my thinking. And I can't even answer the question without sounding repetitious. You know my answer. I'm not thinking about running. I don't expect to run. Yes, I haven't ruled out the possibility at some point in the future. But I'm not keeping that exception alive to be coy. I really don't expect to be a candidate again. But here we are, 500 days or so before the next election. I don't see why, you know, everybody has to close the doors and say, OK, let's narrow the field and make your bets" (MSNBC, 5/29). [KATHERINE LEHR]

From today's Hotline:

"To me it's good natured ribbing."

-- Ex-Mary Landrieu spokesperson Rich Masters, on Dems calling Bobby Jindal "Piyush," New Orleans Times-Picayune, 5/28

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

From a statement:

"While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security.

"By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."

Sen. Barack Obama's just released some paper on Sen. John McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney:

“This country is united in our support for our troops, but we also owe them a plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else’s civil war. Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe the course we are on in Iraq is working, but I do not.

“And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago.

“Governor Romney and Senator McCain are still supporting a war that has cost us thousands of lives, made us less safe in the world, and resulted in a resurgence of al-Qaeda. It is time to end this war so that we can redeploy our forces to focus on the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and all those who plan to do us harm.”

Again, with homages to the WSJ's Washington Wire:

What did Ronald Reagan think of Rudy Giuliani? In the former president's own words: "Crazy." Now -- we're sure Reagan had kinder words in private. But it's kind of funny, anyway.

Per the Hotline's Wake Up Call: Mitt Romney said "he supports" allowing illegal immigrants "to apply to become permanent residents" but "opposes current legislation that would allow them to do just that" (Palm Beach Post). Give Mitt Romney a hard time if you want, but also ask how Rudy Giuliani would replace the Z Visa program...

Speaking of Romney: Hotline On Call wants to know: who's the hottest Romney son?

Asked at a news conference in Lakeland how he would specifically change the language, Romney said, "I'm not, here, going to describe language of a piece of legislation. I'm not a legislator, at least not currently, so I'm not going to give you legislative language."

MSNBC's First Read:

*** Safety Dance: The safe thing to do if you're a Democrat running for president was to do what Clinton, Dodd, and Obama did: vote against the Iraq supplemental. But ask yourself this question: What if Clinton had voted for it? There was plenty of cover (including Al Gore, by the way), and she might have gotten very "presidential" type coverage since she was doing the supposedly unpopular thing. To put it another way, will anti-Iraq Democrats ever give her the credit for this vote?

BTW: The RNC Research Shop sent around a memo entitled "THE SHAMEFUL SWITCH"

"At a time when the men and women of our military fighting terrorism around the globe needed them most, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cast a vote that singularly defines their lack of leadership and serves as a glaring example of an unrealistic and inexperienced worldview on national security that is regrettably shared by too many of their fellow Capitol Hill Democrats.

"Voting against our troops during a time of war shows the American people that the leaders of the Democrat Party will abandon principle in favor of political positioning.

"Their votes render them undependable in the eyes of the men and women of the United States military and the American people."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

From a paper statement:

"I was very disappointed to see Senator Obama and Senator Clinton embrace the policy of surrender by voting against funds to support our brave men and women fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."

Update: Thompson's spokesman, Mark Corallo, says Thompson was not, in fact, referring to VA Tech.
Last night, aspiring presidential hopeful Fred Thompson said

"We're are now living in a nation that is beset by suicidal maniacs..."

He proceeded to criticize the Senate immigration bill.

Was he referring to Cho Seung-Hui's rampage?

Because if he was, Thompson is positioning himself well to the right of Tom Tancredo on immigration. Hui was a legal immigrant who acheived permanent resident status-- and, anyway, unless Thompson is a cultural essentialist, was, at the time of his shootings, more of an American than he was a Korean. Anyway, is Thompson saying that every legal immigrant is a potential Cho? What does VA Tech have to do with amnesty for illegal immigrants?

Or maybe Thompson's referring to hidden terror cells in the US.

Or maybe he meant to say "we are living in a WORLD"... which would make much more sense.[MARC AMBINDER]

In spirit.

From an e-mail:

This is Rep. Andrew Edwards of Nashua…

I’m writing to let you all know of something exciting that’s going to happen at the State Party Convention on Saturday, June 2nd. Some of you have expressed a willingness to get Al Gore to run, others of you have been mentioned as people who could be interested in this.

We have arranged to get a Draft Gore table at the convention, through the national organization that has been organizing the draft movement across the country. We will be bringing up folks from the different groups down in Massachusetts who just recently did this at their own state party convention. This occasion will be much greater in terms of impact and national media attention. They will be providing resources like pins, buttons, stickers, posters, etc., what we need to do is get folks at the convention to take notice.

There are a number of compelling reasons for an Al Gore presidency, and this is the perfect opportunity to begin mobilizing a draft campaign in NH.

- His Oscar victory has generated substantial interest and the media has since been following his every move (and his weight)

- He is polling in the double digits in major primary states across the country where he isn’t even on the ballot!

- His Alliance for Climate Protection has reached 500,000 signatures and his Live Earth concerts this summer will reach 2 billion people

- He could possibly be awarded the Nobel Prize in October, a critical time and still before the filing deadline

- He has the resources and the support to avoid the unusually accelerated primary process we’re experiencing

and most importantly…

- His new book is generating a ton of interest and has brought him back into the political dialogue in this country.

If you can attend the convention, we want to have an impressive showing of Gore support inside and outside the convention hall. Those who don’t need/want to pay to get inside, we will have signs to be held outside and flyers to handout. If you are attending the event as a delegate or guest, we’d love you to hang around and work at the Gore table, but most importantly, spread the message by word of mouth. There are so many people all across the state who are waiting to see if Gore will run, and every day we find a new reason to believe that this can happen. We need to provide an outlet for that interest and channel this energy into an organized grassroots movement.

If you are at all interested in getting involved with the movement, please contact myself or Rep. Jeff Fontas:

Jeffrey.Fontas@leg.state.nh.us

Andrew.Edwards@leg.state.nh.us

Based on this Washington Post article, On Call agrees with the Politico's Ben Smith: where's the there there?

Revelations are said to be:

Ooh -- HRC is ambitious. And ruthless. Ambitious people can be ruthless.

Ooh -- HRC fought to keep her family's private life private.

Ooh -- Bill Clinton had extramarital affairs.

Ooh -- the Clintons were worried about Whitewater.

Don't get us wrong: the books themselves we will buy and plow through, and given the pedigree of the authors: Carl Bernstein, Don Van Natta, Jeff Gerth -- they are certain to be well-reported and worth the money.

Two points of interest:

-- that HRC didn't read the 2002 NIE (although it's hard to tell how her perusal of that document would have changed her vote). Also -- this has been reported before.

-- Van Natta/Gerth's chronicle of her Senate career.

But the only thing that really matters, politically, are new relevations about Clinton's marriage -- or revelations of recent misconduct by Pres. Clinton. There aren't any.

Other knowledge about Hillary Clinton is overdetermined, in sociological lingo. And there just aren't too many stories left to tell about Hillary Clinton, arguably the most scrutinized American political figure of the past 15 years.

It's hard to imagine we'll be talking about these books in August. [MARC AMBINDER]

We've taken a gander at reactions in the liberal blogosphere to the Democrats' capitulation on war funding, and they are predictably inner-directed and selfish -- and we don't mean that in a bad way.

Dem leaders are "lying whore[s]"; have "bizarre fear[s]", they're more afraid of Bush than they are of a "demoralized grassroots base"; they're avatars of "learned helplessness."

Maybe so. To the netroots' collective credit, they don't seem to buy the argument that political realities "forced" the Democratic leadership to drop withdrawal dates. Political realities are not like the laws of physics; they can be changed, and, indeed, are unequivocally useful today for Democrats, rather than Republicans. But they aren't whimsical social constructions.

It's a bit inaccurate to say that Americans by and large support legislation that would cut off funds for the troops. Yes, yes, that's the GOP frame, but Dems bought into it -- cutting off funds being the only way to exercise their constitutional authority.

Matthew Yglesias cites a poll showing that upwards of 60% percent of Americans favor a no-strings-attached funding bill with benchmarks -- exactly what passed yesterday -- to inexplicably argue that Democrats were too afraid of a confrontation with President Bush over the war to stand up for what a majority of Americans elected them to do.

The upside for Dems is that they'll simply have to wait about three months before they (probably) get their way, here.

Last night, Sen. John McCain had dinner with Int'l Assoc. of FireFighters pres. Harold Schaitberger. We're told that McCain asked to meet with Schaitberger on the heels of the senator's appearance at a DC presidential forum earlier in March.

Schaitberger's union, the first to endorse John Kerry in '04, intends to be rigorously bipartisan this cycle, although the iAFF does not much like ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

What did they talk about? We're not sure -- but we bet immigration came up. There's a disconnect between many labor leaders and the Dem leadership on the merits on the Senate compromise, and Schaitberger is said to oppose the bill that McCain is touting. [MARC AMBINDER]

Sen. Joe Biden was the only '08 Dem to vote yes last night.

An aide e-mails some context:

First, as you know, Biden was the ONLY Democratic presidential candidate in the Senate to vote for the supplemental. In remarks on the floor following the vote, he said: "The President may be prepared to play a game of political chicken with the well-being of our troops. I am not. I will not." He also again called for the President to make building and deploying MRAPs a national priority.

Last night, TV was dominated by the vote on the Iraq war funding bill.

CNN's J. King: "The House and Senate tonight passing legislation that funds the war in Iraq, but doesn't impose a timetable for bringing the troops home. The political impact is potentially immense, especially on the presidential ambitions of two of the senators voting, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton" ("AC 360," 5/24).

CNN's Bash, on HRC and Obama: "It was high drama, to say the least. Both of those senators had made two promises that were conflicting, one promise that they would continue to fund troops in harm's way, but another promise that they would do whatever possible to end the war in Iraq. So, they essentially tonight had to pick one of the promises to keep and one to break. And they didn't vote until the very end of this Senate vote tonight. They both, in the end, voted no. And that is exactly, of course, how staunchly anti-war Democrats, who are going to be voting in the primaries in 2008, wanted them to vote" ("AC 360," 5/24).

Dem strategist Paul Begala: "I think both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, neither of them covered themselves with glory here. This bill was not unexpected. It was not a deal that would suddenly shock anybody. And the fact that they could not decide until just right before the vote, where they were going to be, I think, is going to upset a lot of their supporters. And maybe this gives new oxygen to some of the stronger, clearer anti-war candidates" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/24).

Bash, on John McCain: "He did vote and he did vote yes. He certainly has missed a lot of votes, but this one he made sure to here for" ("PZ Now," 5/24).

CNN's Malveaux, on the WH's reaction: "It considers it a victory in the sense that there are no timelines for troop withdrawal. That was a big deal for the administration. But they are certainly not gloating here. It is a short-term victory. Just a couple months away, Democrats are going to hold this administration once again accountable and challenge whether or not they're going to be funding additional troops for more and more months ahead" ("PZ Now," 5/24).

Dem strategist Julie Roginsky: "I am sick over this. They got elected with a mandate to do something. The fact that they've done nothing. The fact they won't even have benchmarks that are enforceable. Never mind putting a stop to this war is not what the Democrats were elected to do" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/24).

GOP strategist Karen Hanretty: "I think they're going to have a short-term impact from you know the Daily Kos and all the left-wing bloggers. But my bigger concern is that in the long run being basically
September, this fall, I think what the Democrats are doing is they're just stalling. It's just a game of waiting to get enough moderate Republicans who will join with them so that this fall they can claim victory with a bipartisan bill that has timetables in it. And I wouldn't be surprised if in fact they get that" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/24).

MSNBC's Abrams: "It's time to look back at today's winners and losers. Winner, President Bush for establishing expectations today that ensure he'll be right about Iraq, no matter what happens. Either the violence escalates this summer, as he predicted this morning, or the situation gets better, as he's been suggesting all along. Loser, President Bush for establishing expectations today that ensure he'll be right about Iraq" ("Scarborough Country," 5/24).

CNN's Dobbs: "The House of Representatives has just voted to approve an amendment to the war funding bill. That amendment will raise, as well, the minimum wage for the first time in a decade. This increase is a key part of the Democratic legislative program that has been stalled for some time now" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/24). [KATHERINE LEHR]

From today's Hotline:
"We're living in a nation beset by suicidal maniacs."

-- Fred Thompson, letting loose on the immigration bill, Greenwich Time, 5/25

With homage to The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire, here's a brief digest of the rest of the day's political news:

Mitt Romney likes gays and immigrations; John Edwards likes gay immigrants. And check out this very angry post to the Washington Blade's blog about Edwards, Shrum, and one's comfort level with gays.

President George W. Bush Is Crapped Upon; literally. The clip isn't yet on YouTube. Bet they don't teach this stuff at Beltville.

Rudy Giuliani Announces “All-American” fundraising team; young, under-45 professionals participate in tiered fundraising system with max of $1M. Goal is to engage new generation of political donors. Bryan Pickens, son of major Rudy donor Boone Pickens, is nat'l chair. Mitt Romney's next major young donor event is scheduled for June 7.

Sort of a fascinating response from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney to a question from an AP reporter about anti-gay discrimination.

"I oppose discrimination against gay people," Romney said. "I am not anti-gay. I know there are some Republicans, or some people in the country who are looking for someone who is anti-gay and that's not me."

Wonder who he's referring to? And can anyone really dispute his point -- that there are some Republicans who are looking for a candidate who does find homosexuality immoral and is willing to say so?

On immigration, Romney took a step towards answering the question posed to him by the press and by John McCain -- no, Kevin Madden, not the same entity -- how would he handle the 12M illegals already in the country?

"I don't think that we're going to round up 11 or 12 or however many million people and bus them out of the country. That's not what I'm talking about," Romney said. "Those who committed felonies, of course, would be deported. Those who require government assistance to stay here would surely need to get off government assistance and ultimately could not remain here on government assistance."

Still hasn't really answered the question, but the thoughts above limit his options a bit.

A birdie with access to the latest media buys gives us this rundown:

Richardson placed 5/29-6/4 in Iowa and New Hampshire. He has upped his buy in IA to 500-600 GRPs in each major market and 50-100 GRPs in smaller markets. In NH, his buy remains similar to previous weeks, about 200 GRPs for the flight.

Romney placed 5/25-5/29 and 5/30-6/5 in South Carolina (all cable) and 5/30-6/5 in Iowa (all cable). This is about 25-50 GRPs per market per week in SC and 50-100 GRPs per market in Iowa.

GRPs = gross ratings points -- a measure of how many people see the ads
flight = the duration of the ads
place = to purchase ad time.
cable = what we all watched before DirectTV.

Well, it's a big story.

Don't ask us why the Des Moines Register placed the Hillary story next to a picture of some guy who looks as if he's about to be kicked in the gazoingas.

Also: on TV: the largest station in the Sioux City area:

The most influential radio news operation in IA...

The Mason City Globe-Gazette.

From today's Hotline:

"If there's wrongdoing, it will be taken care of."

-- Pres. Bush, on fired prosecutor probes, AP, 5/24

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Kind of a big Feb. 5 get for the Giuliani campaign:

The Rudy Giuliani Presidential Committee today announced that Speaker of the Georgia House of Representatives Glenn Richardson will serve as the campaign’s Georgia Chairman. The campaign also unveiled endorsements from a host of Georgia elected and former Republican party officials in the first round of announcements for the Mayor’s Georgia leadership team.

He's also the chairman of the overlooked but powerful Southern Legislative Conference (SLC) and the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC).

Mr. Richardson takes credit for endursing passage of the "Woman's Right To Know Act," which requires women to get fetal ultrasounds before they get abortions.

We can't get enough. We're masochists. But the e-mails we get are so entertaining. So -- our daily dose of Ron Paul.

From MSNBC's First Read:

*** Let’s Get Ready To Ron-ble: Ron Paul -- yes, Ron Paul -- steps into the political spotlight with a press conference at the National Press Club. Appearing with former CIA official Michael Scheuer, ex-head of its Bin Laden Unit, Paul finally punches back at Giuliani after the ex-mayor blasted him at last week's GOP debate for stating that the US presence in the Middle East was responsible for 9/11.

Lord he was born a gambling man. Try to make a difference, doing the best he can.

Have you ever read a New Hampshire Union Leader editorial that's friendly to Sen. John McCain? You're in for a treat. The headline even uses a favorite metaphor of McCain's chief strategist, John Weaver: "The Gambler: John McCain Goes All In"

We disagree with the senator about the immigration bill. But we admire his determination to do what he believes is right even at great personal risk. McCain is gambling his political career on his belief that Americans want a leader, not a follower. So far, no other presidential candidate has had the guts to do the same.

In other words, McCain's displaying guys and character. Another good headline from SC: "McCain Cites Terrorists As Reason To Push Immigration Bill"

2. 6 Days and no word from the Romney campaign as to what they would replace the Z visa program with. Yes, we're repeating a McCain talking point. But it's still a reasonable question. The Florida press corps is picking up the trail. And someone asked Al Cardenas, a key Romney adviser, former state party chair, and um, Cuban-American, what he thinks: Romney advisor Al Cárdenas, a Cuban-American lawyer and former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said:

"The criticism he has received has been over the top and unfair. . . . I am confident that he will [put] forward an immigration proposal that Floridians and Hispanics alike will find fair.''

Most of last night's TV concentrated on the feud between "The View"'s Rosie O'Donnell and Elisabeth Hasselbeck, as well as Ex-DoJ WH liaison Monica Goodling's testimony before the House Jud Cmte 5/23.

MSNBC's Shuster: "Monica Goodling testified she was not very involved in the seemingly political firings of federal prosecutors. But, while trying to distance herself from the scandal, Goodling
damaged Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and outgoing Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty" ("Hardball," 5/23).

FNC's Angle: "Democratic critics were hoping Goodling's testimony would finally validate their suspicions of some kind of wrongdoing at the White House, especially by Karl Rove. ... But if that was the expectation, Goodling's testimony was an enormous disappointment" ("Special Report," 5/23).

Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL): "We continue to have reasons to believe that these U.S. attorneys were fired because of, in some instances, political pressure from outside the department, and that the Department of Justice didn't give us the straight story. ... We need to hear from Karl Rove and some of the White House to close this matter out" ("Newshour," PBS, 5/23).

CNN's Toobin: "To think that those great lawyers work for a fifth rate lawyer like Monica Goodling, you know, with her seventh rate law school education, I mean, it's just appalling to think how much power a woman like that has" ("AC 360," 5/23).

CNN's Arena: "Republicans keep trying to end this all. Today, complaining about the amount of money that's being spent on this investigation without any proof of any illegal activity. But there is little chance of that happening" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/23).

Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA): "The fact of the matter is, there is no illegality that has been presented with one iota of evidence with respect to the hiring or firing of these U.S. attorneys" ("Newshour," PBS, 5/23).

RUNNING ON FAITH

Mike Huckabee was on "Hannity & Colmes" last night to discuss why he canceled his appearance at a Baptist conference organized by Jimmy Carter.

Huckabee: "I think that to call a sitting president the worst in history, that's pretty much over the top.
... I think Jimmy Carter is a great humanitarian. And I even value him as a Christian brother. This isn't a personal thing about Jimmy Carter. But I just feel uncomfortable going on a program that was presented to me as a nonpolitical program. And then these comments this weekend seemed to have such an edge to them that I thought it's just better for me to pull away."

Asked if giving Carter the benefit of the doubt would be the Christian thing to do: "Well, the Christian thing to do is to continue to love him but to not go on the program with him" (FNC, 5/23).

EASIER SAID THAN DONE?

John Edwards was in the "Situation Room" last night to talk about Iraq.

Edwards, on the Dems: "What they should do is continue to submit funding bills supporting the troops to the president with a timetable for withdrawal. And if the president of the United States, George Bush, continues to veto those bills, it's the president who's deciding he's not going to fund the troops. And ultimately that would actually require George Bush to start withdrawing troops from Iraq."

On his critics suggesting it's easy for him to say that since he's not in the Congress right now: "Can I just say, respectfully, that I would disagree with that? First of all, I've been in that position. I have, in the past, voted against the funding bill, $87 billion, when I knew that George Bush was on the wrong course in Iraq. And, secondly, and I think more importantly, I'm running for president of the United States. All of us running for president will be held accountable, ultimately to voters, for the positions that we've taken."

On an increase in the minimum wage being included in the legislation: "Lord knows I'm for raising the minimum wage. Anyway we can get that done is a good thing. But it shouldn't be tied to what's happening in Iraq. What we should be doing in Iraq is standing our ground, stopping what this president is doing, forcing his hand and forcing him to withdraw troops from Iraq" (CNN, 5/23). [KATHERINE LEHR]

Let's throw out one more thought: the national press corps will be appropriately skeptical that no one else in the Clinton campaign has ever thought about ditching Iowa. And they'll wonder why Mike Henry, entrusted with the keys to the kingdom, all the internal polling data, privy to all the strategic discussions -- why only Mike Henry came to the conclusion that winning Iowa would be tough?

Flipping the coin, isn't it also true that expectations that HRC will win -- and needs to win -- Iowa are forever diminished? Look at both sides of the coin together: does HRC now need to win Iowa to win the nomination? Will the press say that she does? Probably not, and probably not.

Some updates:

David Yepsen notes that the Clinton campaign has doubled its field staff in Iowa -- "hardly the actions of a campaign preparing to pull up stakes and bypass Iowa." Still, he notes:

The bottom line is she’s headed for a loss in Iowa next year unless she and her campaign can somehow turn things around.

The Iowa Democratic Party's communications director, Carrie Giddins, released a statement:

“Iowa is more important than ever in this election cycle. Iowa has seen the highest level of political activity at this early point in history. Biden, Obama and Edwards will be here this weekend, and so will Senator Clinton. And next weekend she will join Senator Biden, Senator Dodd, Senator Edwards and Governor Richardson for the first major caucus event of the year at the Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame Dinner in Cedar Rapids. Bypassing Iowa would be a fatal mistake for any campaign to make.”

The memo came from a rival campaign who laundered it through an intermediary. So -- some rival campaign operative is responsible for forcing the Clinton campaign's hand in Iowa.

A bad day for Tom Vilsack, the ex-IA Gov who dropped out to support Hillary Clinton. And where is Vilsack today? He's campaign for HRC in New Hampshire.

Brad Henry, the political director for Sen. John McCain in South Carolina, has left the campaign.

We're told that Henry has returned to the fold of his former boss, AG Henry McMaster, and will serve as campaign manager and finance director for the AG's re-election. He'll also continue to advise the McCain team. McMaster endorsed McCain late last fall.

Not sure what to make of this -- just last week, senior McCain aides in DC were raving about Henry.

The well-regarded Trey Walker remains McCain's SC state director.

A Strong Military for a New Century
Council on Foreign Relations
New York, New York
May 23, 2007

Key line: "The worst thing about the Global War on Terror approach is that it has backfired—our military has been strained to the breaking point and the threat from terrorism has grown. We need a post-Bush, post-9/11, post-Iraq American military that is mission-focused on protecting Americans from 21st century threats, not misused for discredited ideological pursuits. We need to recognize that we have far more powerful weapons available to us than just bombs, and we need to bring them to bear. We need to reengage the world with the full weight of our moral leadership."

Not all troops out of the region: "I believe that once we are out of Iraq, the U.S. must retain sufficient forces in the region to prevent a genocide, deter a regional spillover of the civil war, and prevent an Al Qaeda safe haven. We will most likely need to retain Quick Reaction Forces in Kuwait and in the Persian Gulf. We will also need some presence in Baghdad, inside the Green Zone, to protect the American Embassy and other personnel. Finally, we will need a diplomatic offensive to engage the rest of the world in Iraq’s future—including Middle Eastern nations and our allies in Europe."

Obligatory Harry Truman reference: "But Americans like President Harry Truman and General George Marshall saw the truth: that it would require not only America’s military might, but our ingenuity, our allies, and our generosity to rebuild Europe and keep it safe from tyrants who would prey on poverty and resentment. Our leaders resisted the imperial temptation to force our will by virtue of our unmatched strength. Instead, they built bonds of trust founded on restraint, the rule of law, and good faith. They were magnanimous out of strength, not weakness."

Mitt Romney would disagree. "By framing this as a “war,” we have walked right into the trap that terrorists have set—that we are engaged in some kind of clash of civilizations and a war against Islam."

When he'd use force: "As president, I will only use offensive force after all other options including diplomacy have been exhausted, and after we have made efforts to bring as many countries as possible to our side. However, there are times when force is justified: to protect our vital national interests…to respond to acts of aggression by other nations and non-state actors…to protect treaty allies and alliance commitments…to prevent terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons…and to prevent or stop genocide."

Shot at fellow Dems: "The problem of our force structure is not best dealt with by a numbers game. It is tempting for politicians to try and “out-bid” each other on the number of troops they would add. Some politicians have fallen right in line behind President Bush’s recent proposal to add 92,000 troops between now and 2012, with little rationale given for exactly why we need this many troops—particularly with a likely withdrawal from Iraq"

Innovative idea: "I will create a National Security Budget that will include all security activities by the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, and our homeland security, intelligence, and foreign affairs agencies. This would allow more oversight and would also allow us to more carefully tailor our expenditures to our missions. Today, literally dozens of agencies have overlapping responsibilities, missions, tasks and programs. We don’t link these efforts together nearly enough. We have nuclear proliferation programs in the Defense, State, and the Energy departments. We also have more than fifteen different security assistance programs, running out of both the State Department and the Defense Department."

Elizabeth mentions: 1

Some thoughts, after a deep breath:

1. "Skipping Iowa:" It's not an absurd strategy. HRC is strong in NH and SC; her support seems to be deep enough in those two states. John Edwards has lived in Iowa since the last campaign. (Yes, that's a trademarked sentence by now, but it's true). Hard to see Iowans deserting him en masse. The war is so key.

2 But it's not good strategy. The verb "skip" is especially egregious. You never skip states, even when you're skipping states. Just bad form to say it. The point of memo, which we haven't seen and which the Clinton team would not make available, was to suggest that Clinton not spend as much time or money in Iowa as in the other early states.

3. The question of who leaked this to the AP is important and not small. Memos like this are equivalent to top-secret military planning orders. The distribution lists are very, very small, and memos like this never fall into the hands of reporters by accident.

4. Did someone close to Clinton leak the memo in order to embarass Mike Henry? To embarass the campaign? To force the campaign to participate in Iowa? Did a donor get a hold of it and leak it to the AP?

5. This is a one-week story at most. Votes permitting, HRC is headed to Iowa this weekend. She'll probably have a joke ready about the memo. (She will in Iowa for the next three weekends, in fact.) And then it will be forgotten by everyone except for us national campaign reporters who love to speculate about the inner workings of the Clinton Kremlin.

Jerry Hauer, the former director of the Mayor’s Office of Emergency Management, in NYC, has been a vocal critic of ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani as of late. For example, Mr. Hauer, speaking to the New York Times recently, said it was "not" true that he recommended building an emergency bunker near the World Trade Center site before 2001.

One of Mr. Hauer’s first tasks was to find a home for an emergency command center to replace the inadequate facilities at police headquarters. Mr. Hauer suggested an office complex in downtown Brooklyn as a “good alternative” in a memorandum.

But Mr. Hauer said the mayor insisted instead on a site within walking distance of City Hall. Given that concern and others, Mr. Hauer said he decided that offices on the 23rd floor of 7 World Trade Center, next to the twin towers and just a few blocks from City Hall, seemed the best choice.

The site was immediately controversial because it was part of the trade center, which had already been the location of a truck bomb attack in 1993. City officials, though, including Mr. Hauer, have long defended their decision, even after the command center had to be evacuated during the 2001 terror attack.

Last week, in an interview with Fox News, Mr. Giuliani again faced questions about the site. He put responsibility for selecting it on Mr. Hauer.

“Jerry Hauer recommended that as the prime site and the site that would make the most sense,” Mr. Giuliani said. “It was largely on his recommendation that that site was selected.”

Mr. Hauer took immediate exception to that account in interviews. “That’s Rudy’s own reality that he lives in,” he said. “It is not, in fact, the truth.”

Now, courtesy of a Giuliani supporter, hear Hauer tell WCBS’ Andrew Kirtzman on 5/9/04 that he "absolutely" favored constructing the OEM site at the World Trade Center site.

Kirtzman: “Did you personally favor putting OEM (Office of Emergency Management) where it was situated?

Hauer: “Absolutely.”

And when later pressed about the possible Brooklyn location for OEM, Hauer replied “Hindsight is 20/20, Andrew.”

As the AP notes, given that the memo leaked, it's not going to happen.

But the real question: how in the heck did an internal Clinton memo leak?

Is it us or is John McCain basically the only major national figure aggressively touting the Senate immigration compromise? Yes, the White House is sending paper to critics at the Corner, but the efforts seem a bit half-butted. Maybe they're just fatigued. In the coming days, McCain will hold conference calls with reporters in all the early primary states, Florida and California, with the twin goals of defending the compromise and branding himself as the bipartisan leader who helped to broker it.

Meanwhile, we received this urgent message from the folks at The Shot in South Carolina.

York County GOP Chairman Glenn McCall yesterday sent out a “call to action” to put pressure on Senator Graham to back down from the recently proposed Senate immigration deal. This comes on the heals of RNC Chairman Senator Mel Martinez, who was a key player in shaping the new immigration deal, calling on Republicans at the national level to get in line behind the deal.

This is obviously a major issue with the base and it is becoming increasingly hard for GOP leaders to avoid taking a side. Thus far State GOP Chairman Katon Dawson has been eerily quiet on the issue. Having had the National GOP Chair weigh in as well as a major County GOP Chair, one has to wonder how Chairman Dawson has been able to sneak under the radar on the issue. Especially given his recent interest in using his roll as Chairman to take policy positions on School Choice and Workers Comp legislation. Perhaps a call to the SCGOP to ask where Dawson stands on the immigration bill would be in order,

By the way: if you're wondering precisely what Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani would actually do with the 11-12m illegal immigrants already here, well, you'll have to wait a while. No specific proposals are forthcoming, we are told.

In the deeper tissues of the immigration debate, there are several trigger points that drive action but aren't above skin.

To make things easier, let's divide the two sides into "pro-comps" and "anti-comps" -- with comps being a stand in for supporters of a comprehensive measure that would provide some pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

# Pro-comp Republicans believe that anti-comp Republicans are catering to a nativist, even racist element among Republican base voters. Pro-comp Republicans can't say this out loud because they don't want to be seen as bashing their own party's base.

# Anti-comp Republicans believe that the Senate immigration bill is Karl Rove's gift to the Democrats, pure and simple, and would essentially award the Democratic Party millions of new votes in critical states like Ohio and Florida.

# Many anti-comp Republicans are faking their opposition to the issue and have told their corporate fundraisers and lobbyist patrons that they privately hope a bill will pass. These anti-comp Republicans have to pretend to be in the anti-amnesty camp because they'd suffer politically because of it.

# Another reason why pseudo-anti-comp Republicans are in the hardliners camp is that the threat of a breakaway immigration faction is real and worry that any populist third party with teeth would crush the party's tiny hopes of regaining the House majority in 2008.

# Pro-comp Republicans know that they won't gain House or Senate votes; the votes they have now are the votes they need to keep. They are worried about the recess.

The Iowa Republican caucuses are really two separate events: the first is a glorified spectacle of an early August straw poll in Ames, Iowa. The second is the night of the precinct caucuses, tenatively scheduled for the middle of January.

Newt Gingrich has decided to attend the Ames straw poll. Not -- mind you -- as a candidate. He's going to set up an Americans Solutions tent for those Republicans who want some asparagus.

Gingrich doesn't want to compete in the straw poll; he just wants to be a presence. So -- will he be on the ballot? Unclear. That's up to the IA GOP, and they haven't figured it out yet.

Rudy Giuliani hasn't said whether he'll attend the straw poll; we think Fred Thompson will, but we don't know yet, and we suspect he doesn't know yet. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"Remember, this is a state that started the Civil War."

-- SC GOP Chair Katon Dawson, on not allowing FL to leapfrog SC's primary, Washington Times, 5/23

Rep. Boehner's spokesman, Kevin Smith, e-mails:

“Mr. Boehner’s comment was nothing but an off-the-cuff wisecrack made jokingly during a private gathering. While he has serious concerns about the Senate bill, it’s unfortunate that this comment in particular found its way into print.”

Call it the third law of political dynamics: every time a candidate rises in the polls, there is an equal and opposite attempt by the candidate's strategist to tamp down expectations.

Exhibit A is a new memo from chief Mitt Romney strategist Alex Gage to key supporters of the former Mass. governor.

Mr. Gage writes that Romney "is building real momentum leading in to the summer months and the Iowa straw poll. " But "Here’s what Gov. Romney’s momentum does and doesn’t mean for the campaign in the coming months. We cannot rest on our laurels—this campaign is a marathon, not a sprint."

So while Romney is "leading or tied" in the early states, there is "a long road ahead of us, and it will be bumpy."

Also -- those pesky national polls showing Romney well behind Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are "lagging indicators." [editor's comment: true.]

Writes Gage:

"Our achievement has been in introducing Gov. Romney to these voters—most still know only a few details about him and are by no means firmly-committed supporters. The same is true of McCain and Giuliani supporters at this stage at well. Watch for other campaigns to attempt to raise expectations for us in the coming days in an attempt to lower their own. Despite non-stop media coverage, even voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just starting to pay attention and gather information about the candidates. The race is extremely fluid and unstructured, as evidenced by the 87% of voters in the Des Moines Register poll who said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate:

You can read the full, unvarnished memo after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Writes Elizabeth Edwards on DailyKos:

John is first to have his bags packed for Chicago and YearlyKos. The decision was easy: the opportunity to talk, to listen, to question and to learn from the people who make online the center of real political dialogue that YearlyKos offers is important. Unparalleled, really. And so John will be there, there with you.

Here's the latest television ad run by Mitt Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The script says Romney's "done the toughest things" in the "toughest place."

Let's back up a bit. Actually, move forward again -- this is a well-crafted, effective ad.

Now, backing up -- we had several thoughts simultaneously.

1. Mitt Romney worked with liberal Ted Kennedy on the state's innovative universal health care plan. (There is a still image of Kennedy -- graaaarwl -- in the ad).

2. There are plenty of Paul Tsongas Democrats in Massachusetts who think their former governor is, um, bashing
them in a television ad for political gain. Massachusetts residents: if you want to complain in person, the Romney
campaign headquarters is located in the North End.

3. Romney's opponents will bring up the argument that Romney raised fees and therefore he raised taxes. Are fees taxes? If so...

4. Romney cut the rate of spending but overall spending seems to have increased.

5. Enforcing immigration laws brings up the Guatemalan immigrant story....

House Minority Leader John Boehner, speaking to a private gathering of Republican activists last night, called the Senate's immigration compromise bill a "piece of shit" but said that he had promised President Bush earlier in the day that he would let his teeth be a barrier to such thoughts in public.

Boehner spoke last night at a small reception for the Republican Rapid Responders on Capitol Hill.

"I promised the President today that I wouldn't say anything bad about ... this piece of shit bill," he said, according to two attendees.

Earlier in the day, Boehner released a statement saying that "The Senate agreement appears to recognize that additional border security measures and more effective immigration law enforcement must come before any other issues are addressed, but I have significant concerns about parts of the Senate proposal -- particularly provisions that would reward illegal immigrants who have consistently broken our laws."

A senior Republican official said yesterday that while the chances of the bill, which opens pathways to citizenship for most of the U.S.'s 12 million illegal immigrants, are "50/50" in the House and that the White House would spend its time lobbying Democrats, rather than Republicans, to achieve a majority.

Yesterday, the Senate beat back an amendment by Sen. Byron Dorgan that would have scrapped the bill's new guest worker program. The defeat of that effort was interpreted as a sign that a solid majority of Senators are prepared to support the bill's main tenets, for now.

What happens when they hear from constituents over Memorial Day is unknown and unknowable.

A Boehner spokesman was not able to comment.

Boehner's tendency towards candor occasionally irks his staff, a fact that Boehner brought up with last night's audience. In 2006, Boehner called an idea put forth by then. Sen. Maj. Leader Bill Frist to provide Americans with a $100 rebate on gasoline "stupid." [MARC AMBINDER]

The Iraq funding compromise led most of the news last night:

NBC's B. Williams: "To many people it looks like the Democrats might have rolled over and the president might have gotten what he wanted" ("Nightly News," 5/22).

FNC's Hume: "Congressional Republican leaders said it was a win. And Democrats claim they have made their point. But no matter how the thing is spun, it appears House and Senate negotiators have agreed on language for a bill funding the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan that President Bush will accept" ("Special Report," 5/22).

MSNBC's Shuster: "After weeks of refusing to back down to the White House, today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid did just that" ("Hardball," 5/22).

STILL NO BLOOM ON THIS CAMPAIGN

Mike Bloomberg was in the "Situation Room" last night:

On Hagel saying, "It's a great country to think about a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation," Bloomberg: "Well, maybe he was talking about somebody else from New York. Chuck Hagel's a good guy. He's very smart. He's independent. He says what he thinks. And I'm proud to have him as a friend."

CNN's Blitzer: "I think he was referring to you, though."

Bloomberg: "We don't know. You'll have to go ask Chuck. He's doing the right thing. He's out there trying to give the public more choice. And I think that is an interest. I'm not a candidate for president, and I don't know whether Chuck Hagel is, but the more candidates, the better the public will be served" (CNN, 5/22).

SAME OLD AL

Al Gore was on "LKL" last night:

On the Dems sending Bush a war-spending bill without a timetable for withdrawal: "The tools that are available to the legislative branch of government are not always very precise. They are often blunt instruments. And they passed a measure that would have required a timetable. The president vetoed it. They were not able to override the veto. So their options have been sharply limited. Again, I have not seen the details of what they have done but I have a lot of confidence in Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and rest of the leadership in the House and Senate now."

On whether he will enter WH '08: "You know my answer, that's the problem. Because I don't want to sound repetitive. I am not thinking about being a candidate. I have no plans to be a candidate. But, yes, it's true, I have not made a so-called Sherman statement and ruled it out for all time. I see no reason or necessity to do that. But that's not an effort to be coy or to prop the door open or to invite such speculation. Look, I don't know why it's ordained that as soon as one presidential campaign is over with, the next one begins right away. I'm one of those who doesn't like to see the Christmas goods put into storage right after Halloween."

On whether he will endorse a candidate: "I don't know" (CNN, 5/22).[EMILY GOODIN]

As of 9:46 ET, it looks like Dem Steve Beshear avoided a run-off. And Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) cruised to victory.

DEM: Beshear & Mongiardo -- 138,200 -- 41.2%

GOP: Fletcher & Rudolph -- 98,035 -- 50.9%

Dem turnout greatly exceeded GOP turnout.

More than 65% of the precincts have reported so far in Kentucky, home to the first of the three gubernatorial contests in this off year.

Ex-Rep Anne Northup had posted an early lead, thanks to the 66% of the vote she earned in her old Louisville district. But as the precincts outside Jefferson County started coming in, Gov. Ernie Fletcher eliminated the gap and is now building what appears to be an insurmountable lead. Northup was banking on a strong showing in the "Old Fifth" to supplement her showing in Jefferson County, but so far Fletcher has carried wide majority of the other counties. Businessman Billy Harper is running a distant third.

The only mild surprise of the night is on the Democratic side, where former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear is running well ahead of the 6-candidate field with 44% of the vote. That's important, since any total higher than 40% will eliminate the need for a two-candidate runoff election five weeks from today. Were he to do so, Beshear would be spared a costly fight with self-funded businessman Bruce Lunsford, allowing him to focus on a general election matchup with the governor. Whether he stays above 40% depends now on the late-counting parts of Western Kentucky.

And here are some good links to follow the returns:
Secretary of State:
Lexington Herald-Leader blog:
Louisville Courier-Journal blog:
Dem-leaning BluegrassReport.org:

Newsmax.com's Washington correspondent, Ron Kessler apparently cannot get over how yummy Ann Romney is:

When she is not flashing her truly unbelievable smile, she may lower her eyes demurely. But Ann Romney is not demure — she may be modest, but she isn't meek. She is unpretentious, but she isn't shy. She lowers her eyes, thinking, and then looks up directly at her interviewer and dazzles him with that smile.

And, if we dare go off message... Says Ann Romney: "He hasn't changed his position on anything except choice, and that has been very public, and it has never been a change in his personal philosophy."

Oh.

BTW: Despite what Mitt Romney himself implied in Iowa a few weeks back, Ann Romney _is_ his most trusted adviser.

Whether the issue is running for the presidency or taking over the Winter Olympics, "I weigh in so heavily, and he listens to my advice probably more than anyone else's," Ann agrees. "We never sort of go off on our own, either one of us, without feeling like we're going together on whatever journey that we're on."

In particular, Mitt relies on Ann to evaluate possible staffers.

"I weigh in on personal characteristics," Ann says. "I have no tolerance for people that are phonies. None. I just know when someone doesn't have the right character. And to me that matters a lot; character matters a lot."

Post:

Q This is not asking you for a book review, but Al Gore's new book is out, and he says that Saddam Hussein posed no threat and that President Bush, "forged evidence that Hussein was seeking to develop atomic bombs."

MR. SNOW: Well, the second is false, and the first is in contradiction to Senator Gore -- then Vice President Gore's prior statements. So I'll let him rectify those differences.

Riposte:

[Mr. Gore, in a conference call with bloggers today: "Unlike the President's State of the Union, this book was actually fact-checked."

He's ranked number 12 in the latest /Hotline/NBC News '08 Race Rankings.

So, in the interests of filling space on a slow news day and in letting all voices be heard, here are some of their comments:

Dan Frank:

I thought you people were to report the news, not to twist it. Please try and go against your CFR masters and stop bashing Ron Paul. It is absolutely amazing to me, that when a Congressman upholds the U.S. Constitution he is demonize. You people make me sick!

Red Phillips: "

Why are you disrespecting Ron Paul? By any measure of "buzz" he is top tier. Your plea for his supporters to stop e-mailing you is a testimony to that."

You seemed to have ignored your own "factors" when ranking the candidates. How is that you ranked Dr. Paul 12th in the poll when he placed 2nd in the Fox News text message poll after the debate? Doesn't that show organization and poll results? You said about the rankings, "These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling." The fact that he placed 2nd overall in that poll, I would think shows organization, buzz and polling results. Also Dr. Paul was ranked in the "Top 10" most searched items on Yahoo! both Wednesday and Thursday after the debate...that is buzz. Ron Paul is being searched more on Google than the other candidates. You ignore all of this. Why?

Doug O.

National Journal ranked Ron Paul in last place in terms of the likelihood that he would win the Republican party nomination. The article said that the rankings were based on a number of factors including organization, money, buzz and polling. Considering that Paul has raised the fourth most amount of money in the entire GOP field, has won nearly every online poll on debate performance, has the most YouTube subscribers out of any Presidential candidate and his name is one of the most searched phrases on the Internet it is clear that the National Journal was basing their rankings off of their own political agenda in an attempt to discredit the validity of Paul’s campaign.

Chuck PhoneDude:

You guys are full of it!

Placing him in last place when I have a snap shot of him in first?

Then asking for no more emails to your illegal acts.

The people are on the move and your using old tactics to steer the opinions.
We are organized and are going CRUSH your efforts.

We are not libertarians, we are constitutionalists and we want are rights back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John McCain has been running for president for ten years, and Mitt Romney, by dint of his RGA posts, staff seedlings and the Commonwealth PAC, has had plenty of lead time. Both have very strong "ground games" in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

There are two major reasons we think Giuliani is having some trouble "catching up." One is that it takes time to build a solid field organization. Giuliani's had about six months. Many of the best activists had singed up with other candidates by the time Giuliani decided to run. Not really his "fault." We like to put "unfair" "words" in "quotation marks."

The other is that the campaign's emphasis on Feb. 5 states has hurt their ability to recruit talent in some of the earlier states.

We've said it before -- Giuliani's campaign does not believe that they can do well on Feb. 5 without winning Florida on Jan. 29, and they don't believe they can win Florida without exceeding expectations in the early states. That's a complex message, though, and one that places more weight on the latest contest relative to the early ones.

The Giuliani campaign is living with both these realities. BTW: what's a reasonable way to assess Fred Thompson's performance in the Ames straw poll? [MARC AMBINDER]

State GOPers will gather for their third WH '08 debate 6/5 and host a "First in the Nation Presidential Gala" 6/6. Mitt Romney, Tommy Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Sam Brownback and Jim Gilmore have confirmed their attendance at the Gala, while John Cox, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson have been invited to attend. From the release: "Only in New Hampshire can you watch the candidates debate one day, and see them in person the next" (release, 5/21).

I know we can pretty much assume Fred Thompson’s in, but isn’t it kind of weird that they invited him to this debate? Especially right after the debate he’s not participating in … unless he does! [TINA SALVATO]

NEW HAMPSHIRE (1/22 primary): A Night To Remember?

From today's Hotline:

"I've recently begun to fear that I've been losing my objectivity on Bush and Cheney."

-- Al Gore, asked if he agrees with Jimmy Carter, "Nightline," ABC, 5/21

He gives his thoughts to CBN's David Brody .

He "doesn't know" Gov. Romney and makes a point of noting that Romney's changed his positions. Hmm.

It's good to see a great resource get honored: the 2007 Warren J. Mitofsky Innovator's Award by the American Association for Public Opinion Research goes to Pollster.com.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Superficial Interpretation: McCain is afraid of Romney; McCain is worried by Romney's rise in the polls

Better interpretation: McCain and Romney are now running against each other; they're vying for the Rudy alternative spot; also, McCain is a bit concerned about Romney's rise in the polls, and he's angry that Romney appears to be eschewing intellectual honesty in order to score cheap political points on immigration. Also: McCain thinks Romney is a big phony.

Superficial interpretation: He's running for vice president

Better explanantion: he might not mind being vice president, and he realizes that he wouldn't have a shot unless he does well in Iowa, but he really does want to be president.

Superficial interpretation: Edwards remains popular in Iowa and Romney has benefited from TV ads

Better explanantion: Romney's debate peformances helped him; his Iowa campaign is calling thousands of Iowans almost daily; his field organization is stellar; David Yepsen, who loves Romney, carries weight with Republican activists (! -- ?), and the TV ads have helped. Also: Rudy's had a bad press month. And Edwards is popular with Iowa Democrats.

News item: McCain faces peril over immigration stance

Superficial interpretation: the media's confusing the loud with the many

Better interpretation: the media's confusing the loud with the many, but they may be right, in this case, in that the loud vote.

Superficial interpretation: he's getting antsy; Romney's rising in the polls

Better interpretation: he's a proud, complicated guy, and like many proud, complicated guys, he has a temper.

Once again the immigration bill and AG Alberto Gonzales dominated TV last night along with a smattering of WH '08:

FNC's Garrett: "The Senate was all geared up for a raucous immigration debate, [but] the Senate leaders have just announced a timeout. They will hold this bill until after the Memorial Day recess to give it the Senate's full attention for a full two weeks" ("Special Report," 5/21).

CNN's Bash: "The fact that not only is the Senate going to debate this immigration bill for two weeks, but that they're going to be home for a week in between, really could change the dynamic of what happens with this bill on the Senate floor. ... Because as you well know, when members of Congress go home and talk to constituents, especially on an issue like immigration, it really could change the way they view this particular bill" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/21).

Duncan Hunter was part of a "LKL" panel on the immigration bill.

Asked if he's impressed people like Kennedy and Bush agree on the bill: "No. I think it tells me that they don't understand that border enforcement right now, this vast 2,000 mile border that's unsecured, is probably our most pressing problem with respect to homeland security. I think securing the border is more important than a thousand new shiny fire trucks for New York City or a new communication system for our police" (CNN, 5/21).

STANDING BY HIS MAN

CNN's Henry: "Like the cactus on his Texas ranch, the president is dug in and carrying water for his embattled attorney general, Alberto Gonzales" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/21).

FNC's Angle: "In spite of all the talk of a no-confidence vote, it is not clear when one could be held. Both houses have plenty of issues on their plates. And then, of course, there is the battle over how to fund the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan before Memorial Day, which is why Speaker Pelosi this weekend skirted a question about the vote, saying she has a fuller agenda to worry about" ("Special Report," 5/21).

TURNING THAT FROWN UPSIDE DOWN

Bill Richardson played "Hardball":

On his first debate performance: "I could not hear when Brian would lower his voice and look down a little bit. But I felt I did well in the campaign and in the debate. But I was looking a little uncomfortable, because I was trying to hear him."

More: "And I had this sort of scowly expression, which I won't do again."

On his campaign: "It is a little chaotic. It is a little hard to figure out, as a candidate, where you are going to put your resources. My answer is simple. I am going to go everywhere. But I believe Iowa and New Hampshire are that much more important" (MSNBC, 5/21).

He was also in the "Situation Room":

Asked how he would vote on the current immigration bill: "It would be a yes, but at the same time ... I do believe it needs to be improved. But I've got to give them credit, it's good start. It's bipartisan. They are saying two fundamental things -- there has to be more border security. That is very important. And then, secondly, a legalization plan for 12 million undocumented workers. That's not amnesty. It's going to take at least 10 years for anybody to become a citizen. But there are some flaws in it, and that's what they're paid to do, the senators and the House, to fix those flaws -- too much family separation; the guest worker program."

On his campaign: "I am going house to house in Iowa, in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina. Now Florida wants to move up. I'll go to every house in Florida. I don't know how I can do that, because it's a big state" (CNN, 5/21).

NOT WAITING BY HIS PHONE

Al Gore was on "Nightline":

ABC's Moran: "So, if this fall, sufficient number of Democrats came to you and said, 'This is, this is your moment. We need you. The country needs you.'"

Gore: "I will not -- it doesn't happen that way anymore."

Moran: "It has."

Gore: "You know, 100 years ago, there were times when something like that happened, that hasn't happened in the last century or so. That's just not the way our political system works now."

Moran: "But you wouldn't say no?"

Gore: "I am not looking for a set of circumstances that would open the door for me to get back into politics. I'm really not. I'm enjoying my life" (ABC, 5/21).

CLEARING THAT UP

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), on John McCain swearing at him: "Senator McCain apologized to me afterwards, and I have to say that we've probably all said things that we've later regretted. But this is a pretty spirited debate and I can't think of many more important issues" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 5/21).

More Cornyn: "It wasn't anything I hadn't heard before. ... We'd all been working very hard to come up with something we could be proud of. I still had some really serious questions. But Senator McCain didn't want to hear too much about that. He had an agreement with the core group of senators, and I wasn't part of the agreement. So that's the way it goes."

FNC's Colmes: "I'm sorry you were talked to on the floor of the Senate like that. Who does McCain think he is, Dick Cheney?" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/21).[EMILY GOODIN]

From today's Hotline:

"Many of the predictions that Chuck made about how the war might go have come true."

-- Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell on Chuck Hagel, Omaha World-Herald, 5/20

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Ann Selzer knows how to poll Iowa. So take these results seriously.

The latest Des Moines Register poll, 400 likely caucus goers, May 12-16, margin of error +/-5%.

Mitt Romney: 30%
John McCain: 18%
Rudy Giuliani: 17%
Tommy Thompson: 7%
Sam Brownback: 5%
Mike Huckabee: 4%
Tom Tancredo: 4%
Undecided: 12%

Romney's been on the air here for weeks; David Yepsen seems to love his debate peformances; his campaign is regularly sending mail pieces and telephoning caucus goers..... some combination of the above is paying off.

MANCHESTER, NH - Officially, the event held in a large, muddy parking lot north of the city was called a statewide grassroots canvas. Unofficially, let's call it the first of many "Saul Alinsky" days. Alinsky is the legendary organizer and theorist who Barack Obama reportedly counts as an inspiration. Heck, the journalist who wrote The Essay on Obama and Saul Alinsky -- The New Republic's Ryan Lizza -- was there.

To "canvass," means to go house-to-house and collect something. Today, Obama's team is collecting signatures to to pressure Sens. Gregg and Sununu to end the war in Iraq. Unoffiically, the event serves another,more Alinskian purpose. There are so many Obama volunteers statewide that the campaign itself cannot accomodate all the solicited help. So today's event is a place-holder of sorts, a way for those thousands of volunteers to invest their time for Obama's greater cause. The canvass cements their link to Obama by appealing to another part of their political self-interest.

A side benefit: big early grassroots events impress reporters. I was impressed.

A campaign spokesperson said that about 550 NH Dems shrugged off the rain and chilly weather to attend. Jim Demers, Obama's state co-chair, said he's never seen a canvass this large, this early. It's the first major canvass of the cycle in New Hampshire, we think.

A side benefit of today's war canvass: all the names collected will be entered into a database, and Obama's phone bank volunteers might just call to follow up.

A side note: Obama stopped by unannounced to Manchester's two famous political diners: the Red Arrow and the Merricmack. We're no Frank Bruni, but we'd recommend the Red Arrow.

Pictures of this morning's canvass kick-off follow.

MANCHESTER, NH -- There are dozens of would-be presidential endorses who claim that their good word can move votes. But don't be fooled. Based on conversations with top Dems in the state, here are the only endorsements that really matter.

Ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen -- currently the director of Harvard's IOP, her husband endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton. Shaheen, who is being pressured to run for Senate against John Sununu, might not endorse at all, or she might endorse if Hillary Clinton _really_ needs her to, down the line.

Ex-NH state chair Kathy Sullivan -- she's partially responsible for the Democrats' astounding '06 success and is well respected by most precincts in the party -- and in the media. She'll likely endorse, but not for a while.

The New Hampshire Professional FireFighters Association -- among the few unions that actually work on election day, and a great symbolic endorsement. Pres. Mark MacKenzie is also influential. The New Hampshire NEA's endorsement is good for press coverage.

Rep. Carol Shea Porter -- Whereas Rep. Paul Hodes won his seat in Congress largely because of the environment, Shea Porter was a genuine grassroots success story, and she has a large cadre of loyal supporters who will give considerable weight to her word.

Speaker of the House Terie Norelli -- the big surprise of election night '06: the Dems in NH taking control of the state house. And she's the grand poobah.

Gov. John Lynch -- or, as he's known here, Mr. 74% for his approval ratings. Want to know when he'll endorse? Figure out the primary date, and then work two weeks backwards. [MARC AMBINDER]

Candidate: Barack Obama

Event: Town Hall Meeting

Location: Rye Elementary School in Rye, NH

Attendance: Approx: 250

Candidate was X minutes late: 15

Television cameras: 5, including one from HDN – the high definition television network.

Print scribes: 12

Lenses: 7

Substance: Obama’s town hall stump speech, then approximately 9 questions on topics ranging from the war, to defense spending, to global warming, to defense spending.

News we’re supposed to write about: how Obama asked Rye residents to pressure their two Senators, Sununu and Gregg, to change their minds on withdrawing U.S. troops on Iraq. Problem is, Obama kind of worked this in to a question about defense spending, so its effect was somewhat diluted. The "only realistic option" is to find a "veto proof majority" to "bring this war to the close." One of the thingss that every I think has to do is to help generate those 16 votes. You've got a couple of senators here in New Hampshire you know, I think, they need to recognize our troops have preformed valliantly and it is now time for them to come home." People "speaking out vigorously and forcefully."... "In some ways, the power is in the hands of the American people to put enopugh pressure on the other side to move things along.."

Interesting non-anticipated question: an Obama supporter from Atlanta asked about the acute shortage of FAA-certified air traffic controllers. Obama responded with his call to reform the civil service.

Gaffes: none, although about 100 early-bird supporters had to wait in the rain for the Secret Service to finish their ordinance reece – the press got to wait in the lobby. And it was cold outside.

Discordant note: with proud lobbyist/Obama New Hampshire senior adviser Jim Demers looking on , Obama blasted lobbyists and their culture. (The AP noticed this first). [MARC AMBINDER]

RYE, NEW HAMPSHIRE -- Sen. Barack Obama touches down on a cold, windy, rainy day in here in this seaside town for two days of straight-from-the-hip politics. Tonight, he holds a town meeting. He then presents his case to the New Hampshire trial bar. Tomorrow morning, he rallies his troops at their campaign's first statewide canvass. Then he speaks at a commencement ceremony attended by thousands of students -- and their parents.

It's too early to say much about Obama's strength here. He certainly can win, and he seems a natural fit for a pre-exisitng coalition of Deaniacs, college students, professionals and suburnites. His New Hampshire staff exceeds three dozen; there are hundreds of volunteers working out of four statewide offices.

On Saturday, Obama will urge Democrats and independents to pressure Sen. John Sununu into changing his position on troop withdrawals. It's helpful in New Hamshire, obviously -- Sununu is vulnerable only because he supports President Bush here -- but there's a national element to this strategy as well. Wherever Obama goes, he'll pressure the Senate -- he did so in Iowa last week, earning the ire of Sen. Chuck Grassley, who then played right into Obama's hands by scolding the younger senator for his impatience.

This may be the germ of a nationwide movement to link the nomination of Obama with the Democrats' being able to expand their majorities in the Senate -- and with Republican Senators who might, this fall, change their minds and support troop withdrawals.

This is Obama's first trip to New Hampshire with Secret Service protection. It will be interesting to see whether that makes a difference somehow.

From today's Hotline:

"He's awesome."

-- DHS Sec. Michael Chertoff on immigration negotiator Ted Kennedy, Boston Globe, 5/18

Live Dispatches From The 4th Annual Personal Democracy Forum In New York

NEW YORK – It’s hard to imagine any candidate that doesn’t want to be the next “Tech President.” There’s the single-story news buzz from trying Twitter or text messaging. There’s the online blog support from the influential Netroots and Rightroots. And then there are the Silicon Valley and NoVa campaign donations, which despite traditionally giving to Democrats are increasingly donating to Republicans too. Take, for example, John McCain, Bill Richardson and others recent visits to Google’s California HQ.

All of those reasons are why almost all of the campaigns have sent representatives from their Internet teams to this year’s Personal Democracy Forum today. This years conference is more than 750 people strong, according to organizers, including 100-plus media covering the conference today at Pace University in downtown Manhattan. And the event has almost doubled in size since last year.

But not one candidate has a comprehensive technology policy, say PDF/TechPresident.com Founder and Editor Andrew Rasiej and Micah Sifry. So conference organizers have challenged all the WH ’08 candidates to sign onto their Tech President pledge or come up with their own policy alternatives. Sifry said the pledge has not been personally delivered to every campaign, but many of the WH '08 e-campaign aides at the conference (including ones from Obama, Romney and Clinton) have told him that they’re sending it on campaign HQ to take a look at it.

Except for on a wonky level, this pledge is not a big deal until a candidate actually signs PDF’s challenge – even more so if they do it by the end of the day. In that case, that candidate is showing he or she is willing to seek (or kiss up to) the heart and wallet of the Internet community.

Check out a broken down version of the tech president pledge/petition after the jump, or read the full version here [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

John Edwards is a rich guy, owns a big house, dresses nicely, got a $400 haircut, earned lots of money at a hedge fund, runs a poverty center and focuses his political energies on pushing the idea that poverty in America is a scandal and ought to be eradicated.

The volume of press coverage directed at proving that, yes, Edwards is a rich guy and invests his money like a rich guy suggests that the media senses hypocrisy. And that's a very, very dangerous sensation, so far as John Edwards is concerned. A large number of national and local editors and reporters -- think of the AP's Mike Glover in Iowa -- can't get enough of the story.

The truth is that the media seems to be confusing “hypocrisy” -- doing what one says one must not do -- with bad optics and a few cases of ill-considered judgment. (This Newsday headline: "Poverty Campaigner And Spouse Earned $29M") is pregnant with meaning, and yet logically suspect.)

The fact is, if you're in politics and you talk about poverty, extra attention will be paid to the manner in which you display your personal wealth -- whether, by dint of expensive haircuts and mammoth homes, you spend the money you earn and don't care about "what it looks like."

Edwards has been uncautiously ostentatious. That's the basic mistake. He's set himself up for questions about the work his poverty center did, the Cayman Islands, why he joined Fortress, Sudan holdings, etc, not because he held himself to a different moral standard, but because he didn't hold himself to a high enough political standard. The press reads this as arrogance.

Knowing he was going to focus on poverty, he probably should have dialed back his displays of wealth. The optics would look better. Roger Simon wrote that the problem with Edwards's $400 haircut was not the haircut itself; it was the fact that it slipped into his campaign finance report. Wrong. The problem was the haircut -- or, more precisely, the shrug of the shoulders that accompanied his decision to get it. The press pays attention to these things. It -- we -- have a fetish for the discrepant, the unseemly, the showy. You just don't get a $400 haircut during a campaign to eradicate poverty. Your credibility as a messenger suffers.

Think of what would happen if Rudy Giuliani profited off of 9/11. (Uh... that's for another post. We won't want Katie Levinson to get mad at us today.)

At the end of the day, the standards may not be fair. Who faults Bill Gates for having a tremendo-mungus home and a zillion cars? (The riposte might be: has Edwards actually helped the world's poor, yet?)

The good news for Edwards is that, per public polls and private polls done for Democrats, the haircut/hedge fund coverage hasn't cut into Edwards's lead in Iowa, the only state that really matters right now to that campaign. Unions still love him. He's still the only guy who's running on poverty. But a few more weeks of coverage like this might begin to do some damage. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

The immigration bill dominated last night's TV talk:

ABC's Raddatz: "This is a giant step toward immigration reform but what was perhaps most remarkable about today is the Democrats, Republicans and the White House came together" ("World News," 5/17).

CBS' Attkisson: "Compromise, the bill's strength, is also it's weakness. For every point that pleases someone, there's another that angers someone else" ("Evening News," 5/17).

FNC's Garrett: "This deal already under attack from left and right. Conservatives announced what they see as amnesty and reckless increase in future legal immigration. Liberals think the temporary worker program is too restrictive and oppose new green card rules that say only spouses and minor children can legally enter the country, no more aunts, uncles, cousins, and in all but a few cases, no grandparents" ("Special Report," 5/17).

CNN's Dobbs: "It's very hard to tell whether there is real sincerity, real backbone on the border security provisions, and whether there are real and determined, sincere efforts to bring enforcement of U.S. immigration law to bear. Without those two things, this deal, no matter how ballyhooed the result today on Capitol Hill, it hasn't got a chance in the world" ("AC 360," 5/17).

DHS Sec. Michael Chertoff: "I understand there's some people who expect anything other than capital punishment is an amnesty. The reality is the proposal here requires people who came in illegally who want to stay to pay a penalty. Like a fine. That's a punishment. That's not an amnesty" ("Situation Room," CNN, 5/17).

Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI): "I think the bill stinks" ("Evening News," CBS, 5/17).

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), asked if the new immigration bill will stop illegal immigration: "I don't think it will, because the bill cuts my fence in half. ... You have to put that fence in place. When we put that fence in place in the number-one smuggling corridor in California, it worked great. It has knocked down smuggling in that sector by more than 90 percent. So, the Senate bill, off the bat, more than cuts the Hunter fence in half. I don't like that. And, so, you're going to have the same porous border" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/17).

Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO): "It is amnesty. And, if they want it, just say it. They're just afraid of the word. But they're not afraid of actually doing it" ("PZ Now," CNN, 5/17). [EMILY GOODIN]

Republicans have a message for Ron Paul: don't mess with us.

Since Tuesday's debate, Mr. Paul's supporters have flooded the phone lines and e-mail servers at South Carolina State Republican Party headquarters with complaints. A mild annoyance, to say the least. So the party is struck back, sort of. They have Mr. Paul's mobile phone number, and they invite all complaint callers to leave a message on it. Call it blowback.

Undaunted, Paul-ites soon moved to another target: outspoken Michigan Republican Party chairman Saul Anuzis, who publicly called for Paul to be banned from further debates. The Michigan Republican Party has been deluged with incoming missives, some inviting Anuzis to go become the Republican party chair of Cuba. They're even calling his home. Anuzis won't give him and still plans to circulate a petition. [MARC AMBINDER]

Joe Biden continues his quest to have an Iraq-centered debate. The DNC announced its official debate schedule 5/16 and today Biden sent a letter to the networks chiefs and DNC Chair Howard Dean calling for one of the six scheduled debates to focused solely on Iraq. (No letter was sent to FNC but that network is not scheduled to host any of the debates).

Excerpts from the letter that went to CNN Pres. Jon Klein, ABC News Pres. David Westin, NBC News Pres. Steve Capus, and CBS News Pres. Sean McManus: "I am asking you today to make at least one of these debates a 90-minute discussion solely devoted to ending the war in Iraq and the implications of our policy prescriptions for the world, the region, for Iraq and, most importantly, for our troops and the American people.

And he wrote to Dean: "I am asking you today to help me push the network sponsors to make at least one of these debates a 90-minute discussion solely devoted to ending the war in Iraq." [EMILY GOODIN]

First -- why did Obama engage now? The Clintons have been saying this for a while.

Maybe it was what Ex-President Clinton said right after. The itals are ours.

COOPER: Are you surprised by the strength of Barack Obama's campaign?

CLINTON: No. No. Because in the beginning, there was this impression that he was the only one that was really against the president's policy in Iraq, which I don't think is accurate, but it nevertheless had some legs out there.

His voting record and Hillary's are almost identical, I think, on all the relevant issues. And also, he's just a very gifted man. I mean, he's an attractive, compelling charismatic guy who has not been in politics very long, therefore has not had the time to pick up the enemies that you pick up or at least opposition you pick up if you stay around and actually, you know, are in the fray and you're fighting to do things. And I think he's a very -- he's running a great campaign. So I'm not surprised.

We could see how Mr. Obama might find that patronizing.

Obama, who has made his 2002 opposition to the war a centerpiece of his presidential campaign, was asked this morning on MSNBC about comments made last night by former President Clinton, in which he said that Sens. Clinton and Obama have had similar voting records on the war.

"I suppose that's true if you leave out the fact that she authorized it, and supported it, and I said it was a bad idea," said Obama. "That's a fairly major difference."

While Obama has sought to draw this contrast with Clinton throughout the campaign, he has previously avoided making such a pointed criticism of his rival.

When asked the same question about his voting record last fall, by the New Yorker magazine, Obama admitted that "it's not clear to me what differences we've had since I've been in the Senate."

"I think what people might point to is our different assessments of the war in Iraq," Obama said at the time, "although I’m always careful to say that I was not in the Senate, so perhaps the reason I thought it was such a bad idea was that I didn't have the benefit of U.S. intelligence."

====================================

Ex-Maj. Leader Tom Daschle guests at the opening of Barack Obama's campaign headquarters in Iowa Saturday. Writes Daschle, in an e-mail to Polk Co. Democrats:

"Sometimes exceptional leaders come along at the right time to guide us through pivotal periods in the course of history. With a tragic war raging indefinitely, millions of Americans (and thousands of Iowans) living precariously without adequate health care, and our moral standing in the world community severely diminished, today we stand at one of those pivotal times. Thankfully, Barack Obama has emerged as a leader with a vision for changing the way things are done and leading our country towards a brighter future. That's why I'm standing with him in this campaign."

=======================================

Rudy Giuliani's headed to Missouri on June 8, and the host for his event, Charlie Barnes, was mostly recently the district office director or Sen. Kit Bond...

BTW: The Romney campaign estimates it signed up well over 24,000 new supporters over the past few hours. The final tallies will be released later.

Now: a new Iowa poll out from rom KCCI/Research 2000:

McCain 18% Giuliani 17% Romney 16% (Fred Thompson had 9% and Newt Gingrich had 6%, the rest were at 3% or less)

Giuliani 27% McCain 26% Romney 9%

And here's a paragraph from a Zogby release on its IA/NH polling.

Republican Mitt Romney has made an explosive leap ahead of his competitors in the first primary state of New Hampshire, jumping up to 35% support from 25% just a month ago, and leaving other top competitors John McCain, the senator from Arizona, and former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, in the dust, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

The telephone survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York holds a small lead over Barack Obama of Illinois, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards trailing behind—even as New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has seen his support jump to 10%.

The poll, conducted May 15 and 16, 2007, included 500 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters and 503 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for each survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Romney, who also shows a small lead in Zogby International’s latest poll in Iowa, leads the GOP field in New Hampshire with 35%, and distances himself from McCain and Giuliani who are tied at 19% support. While Romney has surged ahead 10 points since Zogby’s April poll in New Hampshire, McCain has seen his support decrease from 25%, and Giuliani holds steady at 19%—the same level of support he received in last month’s poll.

To World Net Daily.

My conclusion from this closer look at the current GOP front-runner comes down to this: Speaking as a private citizen and not on behalf of any organization or party, I cannot, and will not, vote for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. It is an irrevocable decision. If given a Hobson's – Dobson's? – choice between him and Sens. Hillary Clinton or Barrack Obama, I will either cast my ballot for an also-ran – or if worse comes to worst – not vote in a presidential election for the first time in my adult life. My conscience and my moral convictions will allow me to do nothing else.

Here's how we'll advance this. Would Dobson vote for Mitt Romney? Probably, yes.

John McCain sent out an e-mail to supporters offering a autographed copy of "Faith of My Fathers" in exchange for a $200 campaign donation. The e-mail suggests it for a "Father's Day or graduation gift" but notes: "Due to the Senator's campaign schedule, fulfillment can take 2-4 weeks." [EMILY GOODIN]

From today's Hotline:

"I suppose that's true if you leave out the fact that she authorized and supported it and I said it was a bad idea."

-- Barack Obama, on Bill Clinton saying Hillary Clinton and Obama's voting records are similar, MSNBC, 5/17

1. Why did John Edwards not disclose his Fortress salary until today? That's three weeks of bad Iowa stories, a George S. grilling, and lots of other unnecessary guff? Just for $479K?

2. What's the significance of this potential difference between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on Feingold-Reid?

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., indicated Wednesday that her cloture vote in favor of a Feingold amendment which would cut off funding for major combat operations in Iraq after March 31, 2008 was not tantamount to supporting the underlying legislation.

“I am not going to speculate on what I am going to be voting on in the future,” Clinton told ABC News in a follow-up to a question posed by the New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny. “I voted in favor of cloture to have a debate, we weren’t successful. . . So I will take the votes as they come. . . You know, if we were making progress, if I thought the Iraqi’s were ready to make the tough decisions, you might have seen a different vote. I don’t see that.”

Going forward, look for the Dodd campaign (out in the open) and the Obama campaign (more quietly) to use Clinton’s Wednesday straddle on the issue to curry favor with ardent opponents of the Iraq war.

“We're as confused as anyone on Senator Clinton’s position,” Dodd spokeswoman Christy Setzer told ABC News, “and frankly it's hard to know whether it's indecision, miscommunication, or simple word games and political gamesmanship we're dealing with.”

The more restrained Bill Burton of the Obama campaign passed on the chance to criticize the former first lady while affirming Obama’s support not only for cloture on the Feingold amendment but also for the underlying policy of cutting off funding for major combat operations after March 31, 2008.

“It has been Obama’s position that he supports the Reid-Feingold measure and he would vote for it” as a substantive measure, Burton tells ABC News.

3. Is this a John Kao idea or what?

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

COLUMBIA -- Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson has told Republicans that if he decides to run for president, he would enter the race earlier than anticipated -- perhaps as early as the second week of June. A Tennessee Republican said that Thompson has been convinced that he will not win unless he recruits a good staff, and that he cannot recruit a good staff unless he gets in the race.

Several RNC state chairs said that representatives for Thompson had tentatively accepted invitations to candidate events scheduled for later in the fall, a sign they interpreted as evidence of his desire to run. Members of an unofficial Draft Thompson group slid pro-Thompson fliers under the doors of RNC members and journalists attending the state chairs' meeting here. Wednesday night, they held an information dinner that attracted more than 40 Republican officials, including the state chairs of Oklahoma and California.

At last week's Council for National Policy gathering in Virginia, Thompson was quizzed by Republican activists about the heat of the fire in his belly. Thompson, according to two sources, responded that he understands he'll have to create a conventional campaign apparatus in order to move to the next level. [MARC AMBINDER]

EMILY’s List endorsed Niki Tsongas (D), the widow of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas (D-MA), today in the Special Election race to fill Rep. Marty Meehan’s (D-MA 05) seat.

EMILY’s List Founder Ellen Malcolm: “Niki Tsongas has committed her life to serving others and will continue this exceptional legacy in the United States Congress. As an educator, a lawyer, a community activist, and a dedicated wife and mother, Niki will be a strong voice for the 5th district. EMILY’s List is thrilled at the opportunity to help Niki Tsongas become the first Democratic woman elected to the Massachusetts congressional delegation in more than 30 years.

“She is running for Congress to fight for universal health care and an end to the war in Iraq. She will work to improve education because, as an educator and mother of three, she knows what a difference a strong education can make in a child’s life.”

Tsongas: “I am thrilled to have earned the support of EMILY's List in this challenging but exciting special election. My life has been dedicated to the issues that matter most to women and families and I look forward to representing their interests in Washington. EMILY's List is a tremendous force in electing pro-choice Democratic women to Congress and, with their help, Massachusetts will again have a woman’s voice in the United States House of Representatives.”

Tsongas and Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue (D) are the frontrunners in the 9/4 Dem primary, but polls show Tsongas, with the help of high name I.D., with a commanding early lead [TIM SAHD].

COLUMBIA -- Based on discussions with more than two dozen GOP state chairs, here are some nuggets that don't fit anywhere else.

^^ Chairs were impressed with ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee's debate performance Tuesday night. But they wondered whether his campaign will find a way to capture the momentum. Chairs and RNC members were not keen on Mitt Romney's debate mien.

^^ Privately, several chairs hope to band together to weed out lower-tier candidates like Ron Paul. One big-state chair called his debate antics "embarrassing." It's unclear whether they'll formalize any plans.

^^ Supporters of ex-Sen. Fred Thompson held a private meeting with RNC members and state chairs.

Lots of talk last night on James Comey's testimony and how it will effect AG Alberto Gonzales:

MSNBC's Scarborough, on Comey's testimony: "The damaging testimony sounds like one more nail being hammered into the political coffin of Alberto Gonzales" ("Scarborough Country," 5/16).

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), on Gonzales: "The evidence is that he is much more somebody who's over there to do the president's bidding and to watch the president's back than somebody who is prepared to stand up and make the tough calls that attorney generals often have to, often against the people who put them in power" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/16).

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), on Rove's role: "That doesn't mean that we should not use the right of subpoena to garner this information. That is just exactly what our chairman is doing" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/16).

BETTING THEIR BOTTOM DOLLAR

And there was talk on the Iraqi funding bill that failed in the Senate:

Newsweek's Wolffe, on the Iraqi funding: "In the fantasy sports league that this has become, I guess the White House would like this to be dragged out as long as possible, to the point where Democrats, in their view, would be overreaching, and they'd all end up sounding like Mike Gravel" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/16).

FNC's Hume: "Democratic leaders in the Senate today took another vote that seemed mainly designed to measure support for ending the war in Iraq. It failed, as expected, by a wide margin. In discussing the outcome later, the Democrats claimed though that they are making progress. And the vote did put a couple of presidential candidates on the record" ("Special Report," 5/16).

POLITICS ARE US

And there was plenty of '08 talk last night:

Newt Gingrich, on his upcoming commencement speech at Liberty Univ.: "It's a very sober challenge. Jerry Falwell called me about nine weeks ago and asked if I'd come and be the commencement speaker. It was a great honor this year. As you know, Senator McCain did it last year. And I was really looking forward to being with him, and it was a tremendous shock yesterday to learn that he had passed away. ... I'm wrestling now, frankly, with how to give the right commencement speech because for the young people who are there, it's their day, but it will also be the morning-after memorial service for Reverend Falwell" ("On the Record," FNC, 5/16).

Chris Dodd, on the Iraq vote: "I'm confident today was the beginning of the end. We're clearly moving in the direction that the Feingold-Reid-Dodd Resolution calls for. I'm thankful to my colleagues who have joined us. I hope they'll co-sponsor. We clearly need to be heading in a different place" ("Situation Room," CNN, 5/16).

Ron Paul, on Giuliani's debate comments: "I think he's going to have to back away from his statement pretty soon, because I found two very clear quotes in the 9/11 Commission report that says that very thing, that our foreign policy has a very great deal to do with their willingness and desire to commit suicide terrorism. So, I would suggest that he read the 9/11 Commission report" ("Situation Room," CNN, 5/16).

Ex-Pres. Clinton, asked how much time he spends as "political adviser": "Not much. We talk every day of course. I try to do some fundraisers for her here in New York so she can be down in the Senate ... or out in the primary states. ... We talk about the big issues a lot ... as we have done all of our lives. ... But I'm not very much involved in the day-to-day operations of the campaign. I do what I'm asked to do" ("Nightly News," NBC, 5/16).

On the New York Times story saying HRC asked him to leave the room during debate prep, Clinton: "That was back in 2000 when she was nervous about it. We get so much nervous at each other's debates. It's very interesting. ... Oh, she used to get so nervous, that she could hardly bear to come to my debates" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/16). [EMILY GOODIN]

COLUMBIA – The Republican National Committee is an unincorporated association of its 50 state parties. They’re kept on a loose leash; only 30 national rules govern their conduct. In the vacuum years – that is, the year before a presidential election when candidates begin to assert themselves – the national party is especially weak, and the state parties, correspondingly grow stronger. This year, at least five state parties are preparing to flout a national rule and schedule their presidential primaries in January. Technically, they can’t – the “window” through the RNC accepts convention delegates opens on Feb. 5, 2008. States selecting delegates before that date will lose half of their allotted delegates, half of their convention hotel rooms, half of their meal tickets. RNC chairman Mike Duncan says the rule will be enforced, and until the convention itself, is irreversible.

No matter: to these wayward states – Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and possibly Wyoming and Michigan – clout matters more than delegates, and the prospect of giving activists in their state a greater role in determining the identity of the party’s nominee is worth the risk. And why not? Parties are about elections, and, really, about one major election every four years. State party chairs are beholden to their state committees, to their state party’s wealthy donors, the aggregate preferences of Republicans in the state, and to the states
themselves.

Duncan has one arrow in his quiver. By September 1, parties must submit their delegate selection plans for 2008. At some point between September 1 and December 31, Duncan will put out the formal “call for convention.” States that haven’t submitted delegate plans by then could get nine tenths of their delegates taken away from them.
Several states might fall into the trap. New Hampshire’s Secretary of State Bill Gardner could theoretically announce in late November that he’s decided to hold the New Hampshire Primary in mid-December. Under that scenario, Iowa would rush to hold its caucuses a week earlier. South Carolina has tentatively scheduled its primary for Feb. 5; they would almost certainly move up by two weeks. Michigan would move; other states could abandon February for January as well. Several may decide to hold what one party chairman called a “non-b inding, binding straw poll” before the window opens and then “formally” choose their delegates later.

Can Duncan enforce his rules? Will it matter? Strategists for the major presidential candidates say that they’d welcome back all the delegates that Duncan took away from the party – an action Duncan says is “binding.” Rhetorically, Duncan asks: what formal power do the presidential candidates have?

I put that question to a senior strategist for one of the Republican frontrunners last night. His response: “What power does Mike Duncan think he’ll have when there’s a nominee?”

A confrontation looms. Duncan said he’s being pressured by some states to formally call for a convention as soon as possible, with the goal of pressuring out-of-line states to conform. Duncan wouldn’t show his cards, but did say, repeatedly, that “I intend to enforce the rules.”

Does it disturb him that some state parties don’t seem to care? “Does it disturb me? No. It’s part of a process that will, over time, self-correct.”

In the mid-90s, Duncan, then on the RNC rules committee, worked with chairman Haley Barbour to offer miscreant states a carrot – they’d get bonus delegates for staying within the window. This year’s delegate penalties are the stick.

Privately, some Republicans said that a convention floor fight about the primary calendar is the only way to resolve the impasse.

The pressure to give more states a greater voice is evident, as is the concern that that pressure is unwisely trumping a thoughtful, deliberate primary process that would produce the best nominee the party can find. Each state wants more influence; that compresses the schedule. Collectively, the less compressed the schedule is, the better. Compression can prevent a solid frontrunner from recovering from a stumble. It can also prevent a dark horse from gaining momentum. It could result in the party choosing a nominee who is manifestly un-electable.
Conservative activists in Iowa and South Carolina worry that the early Florida primary will dilute their influence. South Carolina worries, rationally, that it will no longer be the firewall state for non-Southern candidates. Party apparatchiks worry about the six or seven months between the nominee determination in early February and the convention in August.

Duncan said that RNC staffers are meeting regularly with their DNC counterparts, and that he’s invited DNC rules committee members to attend RNC rules committee meetings. The parties are weary of working together openly; they don’t want to collude and they don’t want Congress to intervene. (Congress doesn’t want to intervene, incidentally). But as institutions, the DNC and RNC face the same problem: how legitimate are they if they can’t enforce their own rules? [MARC AMBINDER]

July 23, 2007: YouTube/Google and CNN* in Charleston, SC

August 19, 2007: ABC in Des Moines, IA

September 26, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Hanover, NH

October 30, 2007: NBC News/MSNBC** in Philadelphia, PA

November 15, 2007: CNN* in Las Vegas, NV

December 10, 2007: CBS in Los Angeles, CA

Lieberman Address to Republican Jewish Coalition “Now is the time for choosing”

From today's Hotline:

"I always appreciated his sincerity, even though I knew what he was selling and he knew what I was selling."

-- Larry Flynt on Jerry Falwell, AP, 5/15

COLUMBIA -- The theme of this year’s conclave of Republican state party chairs is “Republicans For A Reasons.” And what, RNC chairman Mike Duncan, are the core “reasons” of the Republican Party? “A strong national defense, individual responsibility [which Duncan said encompasses judges and social issues], lower taxes, less government and balancing the budget.”

Since Duncan spoke to reporters on the day of the first South Carolina primary debate, and since we were all expecting to write volumes about Rudy Giuliani and abortion, we tried to get Duncan’s opinion on just how many acres of ideology the party’s “big tent” covers.

“There is room for divergence of opinion in our party,” he said. Enough room to tolerate a pro-choice nominee? “That’s going to be up to the voters in the various states.” [One "evangelical leader" tells CBN's David Brody that a "stop Rudy" movement is in the offing; Richard Viguerie offers the same thought.]

Republicans, Duncan said, were optimistic about America. “The Democrat[ic] Party is all negative. Their attitude is, everything is wrong with the country.“

Why then, a reporter asked, do fourth-fifths of country believe the country is headed in the wrong direction?
A superficial answer: Duncan cannot really say, and won’t, that Americans are frustrated with the administration, are growing tired of the Republican brand, are angry about Iraq and believed the last Republican Congress was a disaster. Instead, he says: “We’ve got to show that the Democrats want a major tax increase.” [MARC AMBINDER]

COLUMBIA -- On Call is staying in Columbia for a few extra days in order to catch up with Republican Party state chairs. They're in town for the RNC's annual state chair's meeting. Later today, we'll have some thoughts on the dilemma RNC chairman Mike Duncan faces over his party's primary schedule.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

This is how the NAACP in South Carolina is promoting Friday's visit featuring Bill Clinton:

The South Carolina NAACP

invites you to
South Carolina State Conference Freedom Fund Celebration

Featuring
The Honorable
William Jefferson Clinton
42nd President of the
United States of America

When:
Friday, May 18, 2007
5:00 PM Grand Reception
7:00 PM Keynote Address

Where:
Bible Way Church of Atlas Road
2440 Atlas Road (Map)
Columbia, South Carolina
(803) 754-4584

Ticket Prices:
$75, $260, and $350
Purchase a ticket online or at any of the neighborhood ticket locations listed below.

For more information regarding the Celebration, email info@scnaacp.org.
Direct sponsorship inquiries to, ffcsponsors@scnaacp.org.

Neighborhood Ticket Locations:

Columbia
South Carolina Community Bank
1545 Sumter Street
4103 W. Beltline Boulevard

Sumter
South Carolina Community Bank
201 S. Main Street

Charleston
Loco Records
4060 Rivers Ave

What Cha' Like Gospel Records
3910-B Rivers Avenue

Orangeburg
Jamison's Pharmacy
1225 Goff Avenue

Dean's LTD
1185 Russell Street

M & S Health & Beauty
1133 Russell Street

Rock Hill
Freedom Temple
215 East Main Street

There are really only four or five questions at the heart of the race for the Republican nomination. Answer them, and you’ve got a reasonable chance of predicting your nominee.

Is this a national security election?

Will Republicans choose their nominee based on leadership or judgment or experience -- or platform?

Will Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Al Gore, John Edwards or someone else be the Democratic nominee?

Can John McCain convince enough conservatives that he’s an acceptable fall-back?

Has President Bush so damaged the Republican brand that Republican primary voters will choose candidates who don’t evoke Bush’s particular qualities?

Some corollary questions:

What percentage of the Republican primary electorate are single issue abortion voters?

Is the mien of Republican primary voters in Florida different than the mien of Republican primary voters in South Carolina?

Who does Karl Rove believe will best serve the interests of Pres. Bush’s legacy?

In what direction and to-and-from which candidates will immigration move votes?

FNC had all the post-debate analysis along with candidate interviews:

FNC's Cameron: "With Mitt Romney and John McCain sparring over who amongst them is the most conservative, Rudy Giuliani had to just love it" ("Hannity & Colmes," 5/15).

Rudy Giuliani, on his exchange with Ron Paul: "It was sincere and it came from the heart. ... I usually hear this on the Democratic side. Don't usually hear it on the Republican side. You have got to face reality. If you can't face reality, you can't lead" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

John McCain, on his response to Mitt Romney: "I just thought it would be good to respond, because some of the issues that he disagreed with me on, he used to agree with me on."

On the Giuliani/Paul exchange: "I thought Mayor Giuliani's intercession there was appropriate, and frankly, very, very excellent. I really appreciated it. Because we should never, never believe that we brought on this conflict. This is an evil force that is trying to destroy everything we stand for and believe in. And this is a transcendent struggle. That's why I want to be president of the United States" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Mitt Romney, asked about McCain's comments on him: "Senator McCain talked tonight about how he had changed position on the flag and he is changing position on Roe v. Wade. He was against overturning it, now he's in favor of it. He voted against the Bush tax cuts and now he is in favor of them."

More: "Senator McCain knows about a lot of things, but I do not believe he is a font of all knowledge" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Mike Huckabee, on his John Edwards line: "I go to these kinds of things and I just hope that if I blurt out something like that, two things happen, the people laugh and my wife does not disown me. And in both cases, she approved and the people laughed and it went OK."

Huckabee: "If I had as much hair as John, I would pay $400 for the haircut" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Tom Tancredo, asked about criticizing other '08ers: "Well, why not? We are supposed to be a debate here, right?"

On his campaign: "If I do well in the Iowa straw poll ... if I can come into that in that race top five, let's say, I get catapulted up" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Sam Brownback, asked why he's not breaking through in polls: "I am not sure on that. I do know on the ground, I am breaking through. I am breaking through on the ground in Iowa. I have been there a number of times. I have gone to key meetings with people and pulling people in. I am doing the same thing in South Carolina. And you've got to remember, too, and you know, this, it is not a nationwide race. It is a race through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the super duper Tuesday, and in those states I think we are doing well" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Tommy Thompson, on Iraq: "My plan on Iraq is once again is the only plan out there -- and I really wish some of the other candidates would come up with a plan. My plan really is going to win the war and win the peace in Iraq. And I really believe that more people should be talking about it" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Duncan Hunter, on the Giuliani/Paul exchange: "I think there was a lot of entertainment there. And I think people are looking for entertainment" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Ron Paul, on his exchange with Giuliani: "Maybe he will debate me on foreign policy. I would be delighted to debate him on foreign policy, where we each got to explain our positions."

More on 9/11: "Americans did not do anything to cause it, but policies over many years caused and elicited hatred toward us so somebody was willing to commit suicide. For instance, the occupation with our military troops in their Holy Land in Saudi Arabia. Bombing a Muslim country for 10 years. Putting on sanctions that killed hundreds of thousands of people. So that caused the anger" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

Jim Gilmore: "I do not think I have changed my positions. I have been a consistent conservative for many, many years. And I think that is part of the value of a presidential candidate is somebody who actually runs, does what they say they're going to do and keeps their word" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/15).

SAYING GOODBYE

And there were was much talk on the Rev. Jerry Falwell:

Family Research Council's Tony Perkins: "He would make a statement, usually in jest, knowing that a reporter somewhere would pick it up and run with it. Obviously, taken out of context, it looks horrible, but he got a headline. And he knew how to get his message across. Sometimes that was a double-edged sword, but most of the times he was very effective at doing it" ("NewsHour," PBS, 5/15).

GOP strategist Ralph Reed: "I would argue that, in the last 100 years, the two most significant demographic transformations in our politics were the movement out of African-Americans out of the Republican Party into the Democratic Party to help the FDR coalition in the 1930s, and the second was the movement of conservative people of faith out of the Democratic Party and into the Republican Party" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/15).

Rev. Jesse Jackons: "We became a kind of odd couple of friends. I have high regard for him. He was a man who had a heart of gold and a strong point of view. And we met often, debating very different points of view, but had a kind of generous friendship" ("PZ Now," CNN, 5/15).

Rev. Al Sharpton: "He's one of the few people that I know that was of national acclaim that never let it go to his head. He was a decent guy. ... I just didn't agree with him on anything. And we used to tease each other about how both of us were national and controversial" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/15).

MSNBC's Carlson: "I was struck by two things, one, the intensity of his passion for sports, and, two, how he almost never talked about politics in private. In fact, I never heard him say a single nasty, polemical, even ideological thing about anybody" ("Tucker," 5/15). [EMILY GOODIN]

From a smart Democratic strategist: "McCain was Jeb Bartlett presidential and Giuliani was Clinton/Bush presidential.:"

From a smart Republican: "Marc, you're wrong. Rudy will win the debate because the press will play the exchange with Ron Paul over and over again.":

CBN's David Brody: "No offense to Stella, but if I was going to title this debate, I would call it, "How Giuliani got his groove back."

Andrew Sullivan:

For me, the moral question of torture in many ways settles this race. Just hearing Brit Hume curl his lips around the phrase "enhanced interrogation techniques" was a brief moment of insight. I was glad that McCain called these hideous methods by their proper name, and that Paul described Hume's weasel words as "newspeak." I was surprised to see Romney so aggressively embrace torture and Gitmo. On reflection, however, I was being naive again. Romney aims to please. He knew where he was - South Carolina. You can largely determine his beliefs in advance by judging the audience he is attempting to win over. For me, then, the debate winnowed the field of candidates down to two: McCain and Paul. That was quick.

National Review's K. Lopez:

"I might have avoided sending out "GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY WINS SECOND DEBATE ADVOCATING A STRONGER AMERICA" as they just did. He had some moments, but he didn't win and saying so while par for the course feeds into the (unfair, IMHO) "he'll say anything" meme."

NBC News Political Director Chuck Toddhttp://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/:

"Giuliani and McCain looked and acted like the frontrunners tonight. They got opportunities to look presidential and seized the moments. Romney, after a great first debate, turned in a very mediocre performance. Part of his problem were the surprisingly tough questions he received from his inquisitors which seemed to throw him off. But there was something about him that just seemed less present on stage tonight. Maybe it was because he wasn't standing on the far left side of the stage, like McCain this time and Romney was in the first debate."

More pictures:

COLUMBIA -- As her husband was being interviewed by Hannity and Colmes in the spin room, Ann Romney joined her eldest son Tagg, who was holding court with some reporters.

"So, Mom, how did he do?" Tagg asked.

"I think he did great," Ann Romney said. And her second thought: "He was attacked."

Yes he was. By three of his opponents. And, in a way, by the unrelenting questions thrown to him by the Fox News hosts.

I asked Tagg Romney whether his father expected the barbs directed at him. "I don't think it was a surprise. Dad's going up in the polls, and some of the people who thought they would get the nomination are a little nervous."

Romney didn't do as well as he wanted to do -- one of his advisers admitted as much -- but his campaign seems happy that he managed to make three policy points.

One -- he proposed to double the size of Gitmo. Two -- he wants to bring the concept of benchmarks to government performance in Washington. And three -- that the McCain-Kennedy immigration approach would do just as much harm to the country as McCain-Feingold did to the Republican Party.

Said Romney spokesman Kevin Madden: "We all came here to talk about issues, and a debate broke out."
[MARC AMBINDER]

Invoking the Roger Simon rule: in my judgment, John McCain convincingly and incontrovertibly won tonight's debate. He was strong, confident, answered tough questions with ease and dispatch, and seemed the most presidential. He handled a Confederate Flag question with aplomb. He wore the fictionally commander-in-chief hat ably, and his responses to the torture questions were, simply, moving -- he transcended the format and the event.

Rudy Giuliani did very well. No one watching the debate will have any illusions that he's a cultural conservative. But he gave clear and illuminating answers to probing questions, and he did not appear nervous; he did not seem out of his league. And -- yes -- he was, at times, presidential. His outrage when Ron Paul said something loopy about 9/11 was genuine, and his emotions overflowed into the audience; he bonded with them. A powerful moment that evoked Giuliani's best moment and his best qualities. He also gets props for directly criticizing Hillary Clinton.

Mitt Romney was battered by the Fox News questioners. And his habit of answering the subject -- not the question -- left several flip-flop queries hanging, although his answer to a late-debate question on pandering was stronger. He didn't hurt himself tonight, but the debate moderators didn't help him. Romney didn't seem to get much air time. He answered the final terrorism question well. But he seemed to be on the defensive too much -- not his fault, generally -- but that's the impression he left me with.

Tom Tancredo had a good night, too, ending the night with a great Jack Bauer line. Maybe -- the break-out candidate of the night. Mike Huckabee was impressive under fire. Duncan Hunter was proficient on national security questions. The rest of the candidates were also on stage. Tommy Thompson committed two gaffes. Fox News questions were good. [MARC AMBINDER]

after the debate?

The Fox News moderators are brutalizing Mitt Romney tonight.

Giuliani found it offense that Ron Paul suggested"....That we invited the attack because we were attacking Iraq. I don't think I've ever heard that before, and I've heard some pretty absurd explanations for 9/11. I ask the Congressman to [take that back.]"

[HUGE APPLAUSE]

Paul believes "very sincerely that the CIA is correct when they teach and talk about blowback."

McCain: "I've take and kept a consistent position on campaign finance reform. I have a kept a consistent position on right to life. And I haven't changed my position on even number years and haven't changed my position based on what offices I may be running for."

Tom Tancredo was given the opportunity to distinguish himself from the rest of the field on immigration. He did. “ If we pursue this past towards amnesty, it is a disaster for the country.”

But – McCain was then given the opportunity to say: “I’ve never supported amnesty and I never would.” And THEN McCain cited President Bush’s leadership. McCain notes that the Ft. Dix arrestees “came with vetoes that were expired.”

Then Mitt Romney was asked to address McCain's statement that his approach doesn't support amnesty. He was also asked to address another apparent flip-flop.

Is it me, or are the Fox News questioners being really aggressive with Romney?

Gilmore was asked to elaborate on Rudy McRomney; he did. Giuliani, McCain and Romney gave servicable responses.
But all their uncomfortable positions have been laid out for all South Carolinians to hear.

Rudy gave the best answer:

Giuliani: “I think Rudy McRomney wouldn’t make a bad ticket. And I kind of like the order, John. But in any event, we can respond to all that and discuss all that. But there’s something really big at stake. We’re looking at a race…[where the Dem leader, Hillary Clinton] believes that an “unfettered free market’ is bad; She’s also said with regard to taxes that we have to take money from you to give it to the common good. That’s a stark difference -- a very big difference if we go in that direction, removing private choice… those are the things that she should be debating and Republicans should be uniting to make sure that what the liberal media is talking about, that we’re going to lose, is not going to happen."

You haven't missed much.

Says Jim Gilmore, re: The Reagan Debate: "Some of the people on this stage were very liberal on this stage in characterizing themselves as conservative on abortion..and taxes."

Gilmore wouldn’t say who – go to his blog tomorrow, he said. Uh. Yeah.

Wendell Goler, after Tommy Thompson doesn’t answer a question to his liking: “Congressman Paul: can you do better than that, sir?”

Mike Huckabee: "We had a congress that spent money like John Edwards at a beauty shop."

How does “Flip-flop Mitt” explain his evolution on singing Grover Norquist's tax pledge? How is it not a flip flop? Isn't Romney pandering?

He doesn’t answer the question. But his first line is very clear: “I want to make it very clear that I’m not going to raise taxes.” Strong line – but the premise of the question is left hanging.

The two most striking statements of the earliest moments:

Tom Tancredo: "We are going to be in Iraq, or in the region, for a long time. Our national interest dictates that. The question is: in what capacity will we be there?"

Is Ron Paul in the right party? "You have to realize that the base of the Republican Party shrunk last year because of the war issue."

There are five broad criteria I'll be using to evaluate the debate.

1. Who seemed presidential?

2. Who best represented the values of the South Carolina Republican electorate?

3. The two "Gs" -- who had the best Good lines and the worst Gaffes.

4. The context -- who best leveraged the context surrounding the debate -- Jerry Falwell's death, Congress and Iraq, abortion? And who used the debate to advance his campaign the most?

5. Break out performances: of those candidates not named Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or John McCain, who merits a second look? [MARC AMBINDER, proudly "Wanker of the Day"]

As he left the University of South Carolina this afternoon, ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani spoke about Rev. Jerry Falwell:

“I express my condolences to his family, Reverend Falwell’s family, and to his much larger family …He was a man who set a direction. He was someone who was not afraid to speak his mind. We all have great respect for him … he is a person who told you what he thought and you knew where he stood. … My sympathies and my prayers go out to his family…”

Many journalists smiled at this sign outside the press file.

COLUMBIA -- Can you imagine what Tom Tancredo's campaign manager, Bay Buchanan, said to him after the Ronald Reagan library debate? Our guess is that several of her words had four letters and that her body language was animated. Tancredo missed several opportunities to draw a clear contrast with the rest of the field on his signature issue, immigration.

Tonight, here's one clue that Tancredo will be more aggressive.

He sent this e-mail to his supporter list earlier today:

am sitting in the airport in Chicago, on my way to South Carolina for Tuesday's debate. Of course, there are weather delays, so I thought I would spend the time updating you on the latest excitement from the campaign trail.

Friday in Iowa, I rushed off a plane to a conference on preventing child trafficking. I had no time to change -- so my shirt was creased -- and I followed Senator Brownback who was in a suit and tie. But as the Rocky Mountain News reported, it didn’t matter because when I went in there and spoke plainly about the issues, the crowd response was amazing!

The next day, I joined bikers from across Iowa at the ABATE conference. Next to these bikers, I may have looked out of place, but I felt right at home as we talked about helmet laws, jobs, healthcare, and illegal aliens. I then got to ride the new 2007 Harley Davidson Fatboy. Now, I have a Harley back home but this bike was much bigger, and I was actually worried about rolling it. Turned out to be a great time!

Saturday night, at a townhall meeting, a young lady disapproving of Senator Edwards’ expensive habits, asked me how much my haircuts cost. I was thrilled to show her a card from my local barber with seven hole punches in it. Three more cuts, I told her, and I get one free! She loved the demonstration and so did the press. The AP sent it out over the wire.

But by far, the most uplifting moment of the trip came on Sunday, just after church. A number of congregants approached me and told me that in the fight for conservative values they have been looking for a David; and now they have finally found one.

So last week was very exciting. This week, I will be focused on the First in the South debate in Columbia South Carolina. It would be great if you could watch it, and then write me back with your reactions and suggestions. The debate airs live Tuesday night at 9 PM on the FoxNews channel. My blog will have all the behind the scenes excitement in the hours leading up and regular updates during the debate. Be sure to check it out.

Speaking of the debate…I need to get back to these note cards I am working on. Wish me luck and have a great week!

Thank you so much for all your support.

Tom

COLUMBIA -- A Republican poll shows growing support for overturning Roe.

And Gallup's latest abortion survey shows that 53% of Americans don't want Roe overturned, compared with 35% who do. The percentage favoring a Roe repeal has increased since 2005, when 28 percent of Gallup's sample wanted Roe gone and 63 percent wanted it to stay law.

Note that Gallup used to ask the question differently: it added the adjective "completely" to the question.

As of 2005, 68 percent of Amercians did not want Roe completely overturned.

Gallup also asks today about late term / partial birth abortions. 22 percent want the practice legal; 72 percent want it illegal. We'd bet, though, that if the question included wording about the lack of a health/life of mother exception, the percentage of those who wanted to ban the practice entirely would drop a little. [MARC AMBINDER]

Our post on Obama and "mistakes" received a mountain of e-mail.

One excerpt will do. This writer found it "irksome" that we had focused so minutely on parsing Obama's language.

"Half the things in your post aren't even mistakes and the other half aren't excuses Not having released a health care plan is not a mistake (I'm pretty sure 9 of 10 candidates have made that mistake).

This one is my favorite, [because] it isn't a mistake or an excuse: it's a criticism of the media for being wrong

Why does the media claim he lacks substance?

This could have been written about any candidate at any level.

After the jump.

He's the first '08er to react.

Statement is after the jump.

NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg has the billions and (seemingly) the sanity to mount a credible Indy bid. Should Rudy -- and Obama -- be running scared?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!

COLUMBIA -- Jerry Falwell was a dominant political figure of our time. He was a prime mover in the effort to change the way Christians relate to politics and the architect of the infrastructure that sent them to the polls on behalf of Republicans.

In the public's imagination, he was the archetype associated with one of the important sociopolitical movements of the past thirty years: the Religious Right. He was the most frequent foil for secularists. The mention of his name inspires visceral hatred among liberals.

Fallwell fused contemporary Christian moralism with political conservatism. Being "born again" became a badge of honor in Republican politics. He was opportunistic at the right moments, was always eager to inflame cultural trigger points, and was a master of the media. More than any one man save Ronald Reagan, Falwell brought white evangelicals to the Republican Party and made sure that their concerns were only one rung below communism in the party's hierarchy of concerns.

With the movement, Falwell had detractors. His preference for political oppositionalism -- in insisting that Christians were persecuted by modern politics and had to aggressively wage war against modernism to break free -- was a grave error, according to critics. Evangelical Christianity became synonymous with Christian fundamentalism, and that small trick of language sublimated the political impulses of modernist evangelicals for decades. Others simply felt that he was crass, politically opportunistic and simply, mean.

In recent years, the media overstated Falwell's power considerably, but his influence is undeniable, and has, for years, exceeded his power. Still, the movement he founded lost some of its original coherence. The Moral Majority doesn't exist -- it has matured into a dozen different organizations. The Christian Coalition is a shell of its former self. Some Republicans question their arrangement with the leading lights of the Christian Right; conservative Christians are asserting their independence. But such are the signs of a mature political movement. That tonight's debate will focus, fairly or unfairly, on one candidate's position on abortion -- that's a testament to Falwell's legacy. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"The hope is that we'll ask better, more pointed questions than have been asked in previous debates."

-- FNC's Chris Wallace, Columbia State, 5/15

1. On the day Sen. HIllary Clinton receives a "major" state legislative endorsement, Sen. Barack Obama does some bracketing, releasing the names of his New Hampshire co-chairs. They are: State Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, ex-cong. candidagte Mary Rauh, longtime Dem insider/ex-rep. Jim Demers, and ex-state party chair Ned Helms. Obama arrives in New Hampshire Friday for three events in and around Manchester, including a major grassroots kick-off. Clinton's endorser is no surprise: State Sen. Maj. Leader Sylvia Larsen.

2. Speaking of: today, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney inaugurates his Sign Up America drive. He wants 24,000 new supporters, and, um, donors, within 24 hours. He hopes a strong performance tonight will drive up those numbers. He's hosting 70 House parties across Florida.

3. If Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton win their party's nominations, you can bet that this will be a subject of their debates:

CLINTON AND NADLER TO INVESTIGATE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FAILURES ON ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF 9/11 WORLD TRADE CENTER ATTACKS

Washington, DC - Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY), Chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Superfund and Environmental Health, and Congressman Jerrold Nadler (NY-08), Chairman of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Civil Liberties, announced today that they will conduct companion hearings into the failures of the Federal government in responding to the environmental crisis that resulted from the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center attacks. For over five years, Clinton and Nadler have staunchly criticized the Administration's misleading public statements about post-9/11 air quality, as well as its continued failure to provide a proper testing and cleaning of indoor spaces contaminated by WTC toxins and its lack of provision of health care for the thousands of people who are ill as a result of exposure to the pollutants.

4. Here's the text of Sen. Chris Dodd's first television ad:

Half measures won't stop this president from continuing our involvement in Iraq's civil war. That's why I'm fighting for the only responsible measure in Congress that would take away the President's blank check and set a timetable to bring our troops home.

Unfortunately, my colleagues running for President have not joined me. I'm Chris Dodd. I'm running for President. I approved this message because we can't simply wait for a new President. We should have the conviction to stand up to this one.

COLUMBIA -- Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson's scored a major South Carolina endorsement: Rep. Gresham Barrett, who announced his support for Thompson in an e-mail distributed by Thompson supporters.

Said Barrett, according to the email: "Middle America can relate to Senator Thompson's common sense values. He is a statesman and a leader who appeals to a cross-section of American voters and I am excited about the prospects of his candidacy."

Also endorsing Thompson today: Rep. Jeff Miller (R-FL) and Rep. Don Manzullo (R-IL).

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, among others, heavily courted Barrett. [MARC AMBINDER]

COLUMBIA -- Today, less than a mile from the site of presidential debate, the South Carolina State Senate will meet to vote on, among other things, a bill that would encourage women seeking abortions to obtain fetal ultrasounds at state expense. After a conference, compromise language will be sent to Gov. Mark Sanford, who's expected to sign it.

The Charleston Post and Courier off-ledes a story about a state senate that would fund elective bible courses in public schools. Most state senators support it, as do members of a key state House committee.

Good fodder for tonight.

COLUMBIA -- Many an appetizer at the Republican Party's annual Silver Elephant dinner fundraiser last night -- presidential candidates James Gilmore, Sam Brownback, Duncan Hunter, Mike Huckabee -- but, alas, no steak -- no John McCain, no Mitt Romney, no Rudy Giuliani. Sean Hannity was the guest MC. Pictures follow.

Sen. Graham is always so happy to see us.

This is Rep. Duncan Hunter.

Lots of elephants, not that much free booze.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

An earlier post about congressional candidate Bill Kelly withdrawing his endorsement of Sen. John McCain in Michigan was marred by an infelicitious error on our part -- Bill Kelly ain't no state rep or state senator (yes, I managed to somehow call him both in the course of a single paragraph).

Several e-mailers provide some additional context. One wrote:

"Bill Kelly was looking for donations and was blatantly telling people, 'if you don't raise me money, I will switch my endorsement to Mitt Romney.....The only detriment is that John McCain's staff refused to make that sort of deal with him."

Kelly hasn't yet responded to an e-mail seeking comment.

It's become fairly common for Republicans to endorse, retract, endorse someone else. State Rep. David Agema endorsed Romney but now is neutral, as is ex-State Rep. William VanRegenmorter. State Rep. Judy Emmons now supports McCain. [MARC AMBINDER]

Here is Mike Duncan's problem: the Republican National Committee is an unincorporated association of fifty plus state political parties, each with their own powerful chairman who, in turn, is beholden to both the parochial interests of a particular state and to the constellation of Republicans who operate the machinery of the party.

He is also -- in theory -- the ultimate arbiter between ten presidential campaigns. He cannot alienate presidential candidates -- as soon as one gets enough delegates to win the nomination, Duncan will, in essence, be work for him.

There are about 30 rules governing the operation of the RNC. But they're set every four years. It's very hard to unset them.

One rule is: delegate selection cannot begin until Feb. 5. Then, a window opens, and the RNC will welcome any convention delegates won.

This election cycle, at least five states -- Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Michigan, are prepared to willfully violate RNC rules in order to hold primary contests in January, thereby giving activists in those states some real leverage in determining the identity of the Republican nominee.

Sept. 1 is the deadline for Republican state parties to submit their delegate selection plans to the RNC. Those states choosing to hold primaries or caucuses before Feb. 5 face the prosepct of losing half of their delegates.

But Sept. 1 will be too early for at least three of those states -- New Hampshire, South Carolina and Iowa. Because Iowa will hold its caucuses a week before New Hampshire, and because South Carolina will hold its primary sometime after New Hampshire, the New Hampshire Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, will effectively determine the window within which all three early states hold their contests.

Duncan has an additional arrow in his quiver. At any time between Sept. 1 and the end of the year, he can issue a "call to convention." Those states who haven't submitted plans by then -- well, they'll get 90 percent of their delegates taken away.

New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina -- and Nevada and Florida -- are more than willing to take the risk. They're assuming that the eventual nominee of the party would demand that the RNC seat the entire delegations anyway -- why would they risk the ire of party activists in swing states? And come convention time, the nominee's campaign generally dictates RNC policy, anyway. Technically, the only way to seat additional delegates is to overturn the rules passed four years ago. The conventions themselves -- the body of delegates, in this case, not the event -- can vote to rescind any rule it wants.

Duncan points out that if a state loses half of its delegates, convention planners will allot half them half the seats on the convention floor, half the hotel rooms, half the meal passes. In theory.

One savvy veteran of Republican politics, a former member of the rules committee and a senior strategist for a leading candidate, proposes a different reality: "Those seats will magically appear two months before the convention."

None of the presidential campaigns are worried. Duncan insists that they have no formal power to change the rules -- but he does not deny that.

Although Duncan did not say it, next summer's convention could be notable for including the first real floor fight in recent convention memory. The subject will be the primary calendar. There is no consensus about what to do -- only a consensus that something needs to be done.

Today, the New York Times caucus blog brings us the tale of John Kao, an informal adviser to Sen. Hillary Clinton who thankfully has a marvelously entertaining specialty:

Mr. Kao, who has taught at Harvard Business School, is the author of “Jamming: The Art and Discipline of Corporate Creativity,” in which he explains how members of a work team can adapt the principles of improvisational music to collaborate at a higher, more creative level, a process he calls “getting to cool.”

In his “transformation manifesto,” Mr. Kao suggests hiring a “chief destruction officer” instead of a “chief innovation officer.” Organizations, he says, “must ruthlessly trash outmoded obstructions to creativity,” including “a confining brand image” and “revered memories of old successes.”

Mr. Kao is also a trained psychiatrist. He was also, according to a dossier, an executive on the film Sex, Lies and Videotape.

It would be fun to know precisely what type of advice Dr. Kao gives to Sen. Clinton. His website says that a "major branch" of the U.S. government -- we're assuming this is the Department of Defense -- worked with Kao and Co. to "clarify its story and strategic communications strategy."

Actually, the idea that campaigns -- think of them as $100M corporations -- need innovation, creativity and, well, a good shrink's mind -- isn't so outrageous.

Clinton enjoys the advice of several other visionary consultants, including legendary marketer Roy Spence, who has helped rebrand Southwest Airlines and Wal-Mart, among other companies. In 2004, Clinton's Senate re-election campaign contracted with Gia Medeiros, a teen marketing whiz who was later found to have made some unfortunate remarks about 9/11. Medeiros's contract wasn't renewed. [MARC AMBINDER]

On the morn' of the South Carolina debate, the simmering proxy war between Sen. John McCain and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney is heating up in Michigan.

From a Republican who is not allied with either campaign, we've obtained an e-mail from a prominent Michigan GOPer who calls his endorsement of John McCain THE "worst mistake" he's ever made.

The e-mail from Bill Kelly (R) to a dozen prominent Republicans ostensibly answered questions about Kelly's congressional bid. He's angling to run against Rep. Dale Kildee, the 77-year-old Democrat from Michigan's 5th district, which includes Flint and other Detroit suburbs.

Before he elaborated on his positions, however, Kelly informed the list that

I now formally endorse Mitt Romney for president. Romney has the charisma and ability to communicate our conservative values. He will lead our party to victory. Endorsing John McCain was the biggest mistake of my political career - I think he has been more of a detriment than a benefit to our party.

Not only did Kelly endorse McCain, he was co-chair of McCain's Genesee County operation.

Mr. Kelly, in his e-mail, did not say why McCain was "more of a detriment" to the GOP. But his switch to Romney will be widely noted in Michigan political circles. [MARC AMBINDER]

Lots of debate preview on FNC last night:

FNC's Cameron: "We have some signs behind us here. You can get an idea of how the anticipation is growing in South Carolina, here in Columbia. No Rudy Giuliani signs, lots of Mitt Romney, lots of John McCain and other candidates, but Rudy Giuliani not a particularly pronounced presence here at least tonight" ("Special Report," 5/14).

On "Hannity & Colmes," Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC) previewed the SC debate:

Asked SC's favorite candidate: "Beauty is always in the eye of the beholder in these things, but you've got some folks who have some very solid credentials and credibility walking into this thing."

More: "South Carolina is it is literally gateway to the South. And you've got two things going on. One is a very mixed demographic that you don't have in the other early primary states. If you were to look at Iowa or look at New Hampshire, they're about 95 percent white. And in South Carolina, we've got a growing Hispanic population. About a third of our population is black. ... And, secondly, ... you've got a lot of people from, whether it's Long Island or Staten Island or from the middle of Ohio, all over the country who've come and moved to South Carolina, that give you a real snapshot of what comes next, I believe, nationally" (FNC, 5/14).

And Newt Gingrich offers his take for GOPers: "If we can find on the Republican side somebody as prepared to break with the past, as prepared to offer real change, as prepared to propose new solutions, as Sarkozy has been in France. Remember, he was in President Chirac's cabinet. He was identified with the current incumbent president who'd been in office for 12 years. And yet, Sarkozy by discipline, methodical, proposing very bold new solutions, ended up changing the whole debate in France. The opposition party, the candidate to the left, who by the way, was a woman candidate; not drawing any immediate parallel with the Democrats but Segolene Royal was an attractive woman running as the socialist candidate. By the end of the campaign, the opposition candidate was the candidate of the status quo; and, the conservative, Sarkozy, was the candidate of real change" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/14).

WILL ONE RESIGNATION LEAD TO ANOTHER?

NBC's P. Williams, on Paul McNulty's resignation: "It's no secret ... that he and the attorney general had been at loggerheads. They didn't agree on how to handle the announcement of these firings of the U.S. attorneys, so there has been some disagreement between the two of them about how to handle this issue. Things have been somewhat strained. I think Mr. McNulty just doesn't want to answer any more questions from Congress about this. ... This doesn't mean ... anything about what the attorney general himself is going to do" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/14).

CNN's Arena: "When asked if McNulty's departure had anything to do with that U.S. attorney mess, the White House, of course, denied that, saying that they would take McNulty at his word, that it was for personal reasons" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/14). [EMILY GOODIN]

COLUMBIA -- An informed source tells the Hotline that ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney has re-upped for two additional weeks worth of television ads in Iowa and New Hampshire beginning Thursday. Despite what a previous post reported, the buy isn't new. [MARC AMBINDER]

COLUMBIA -- The second Republican debate takes place inside a theater here on the grounds of the University of South Carolina. Across a small street, more than 300 members of the press will sit side-by-side, munching on free catering and pondering the significance of what Fox is auspiciously billing "The First Debate In The South."

The format is slightly different -- moderator Brit Hume will be dominating presence, and he'll throw to two, not one, commercial breaks. (Don't begrudge Fox for trying to make money here.)

The audience will be composed of major donors to the South Carolina Republican Party, students, and invited guests of the candidates.

We flew down to Columbia late yesterday on a flight full of luminaries. Seated near the back was the most influential journalist of them all -- the AP's lead political correspondent for the debate, Liz Sidoti. The answer to an oft-asked question -- can Michael Steele fit his six-feet-four-inch tall frame in a tiny airport -- was answered a few rows up. Across the aisle sat former solicitor general Theodore Olsen, preparing for his first turn as a debate surrogate for Rudy Giuliani. There was one candidate aboard -- former WI Gov. Tommy Thompson -- who perused the Washington Post and chatted amiably with a Giuliani surrogate seated next to him. As the jet was beginning to descend, the New York Daily News's Richard Sisk leaned across the aisle and asked Thompson, for the record, what he thought about Rudy Giuliani and abortion. A loud airplane and politeness prevented us from hearing the answer; you'll read it into tomorrow's Daily News.

The plane landed safely, and passengers disembarked. Thompson had a debate prep session to get to; Giuliani had a prep session scheduled for this afternoon.

Being a presidential candidate is hard: each week, in public, you utter thousands of words, make hundreds of decisions, and events often interpose themselves between your best laid plans and your objectives.

So does the press (Just ask John "Hedge Fund Learning Opportunity" Edwards). We're obsessed with gaffes, ticks, and hiccups, often focusing on these tiny pinpricks at the expense of more interesting, important developments. When something unusual happens, the demands for "apologies" , "personal responsibility" or an immediate record correction -- follow. The political world is obsessed with contrition. For some unexplained reason, It is perhaps the only true marker of vulnerability.

Barack Obama makes no more mistakes than any other candidate, but he has a habit of challenging the premise that he is responsible for what error (or alleged error) is brought to his attention. And the press has a habit of printing his excuses, leading Obama's opponents to build a dossier of his alleged unwillingness to take personal responsibility. The most common explanation in Obama's arsenal is that his campaign staff made the mistake and he that bore the consequences; Obama telephoned firefighters in New Hampshire last week because his staff had scheduled him to be in Missouri that Friday, he said.

Sometimes, though, Obama is clearly correct: we noted yesterday that the Chicago Tribune took Obama to task for allegedly getting his facts wrong during his speech on energy in Detroit. But it turns out that Obama was right -- the point he made about Japanese cars was factual and the press misinterpreted what he meant.

Herein, a chronicle of questions and answers, so you can decide.

Why did some think he did poorly at the debate? Per the Chicago Tribune: "I was a little nervous, not so much because it was my first presidential debate, but because there was a 60-second time-limit on answers."

Why did he not know that one of his first and major donors, Tony Rezko, was a slum lord? Obama: "Should I have known these buildings were in a state of disrepair? My answer would be that it wasn't brought to my attention."

Who's responsible for Obama's buying two "obscure" stocks linked to donors? Obama "said the decisions to invest in those two companies were made by the broker without his knowledge, as part of a ‘quasi-blind trust’ arrangement he said he had hoped would fend off conflict-of-interest questions."

Why did he wait so long before condemning Gen. Peter Pace's anti-gay comments? Obama: I'm not sure that the story got out there properly. I mean, what happened was I was leaving a firefighters' union meeting and trying to get in my car and did not respond to a reporter's query at that point. I wasn't responding to reporters period because I was trying to make a vote."

Wny no plan for universal health care yet? From the SEIU/Center for American Progress Health Care forum on 3/24: "Well, keep in mind that our campaign now is I think a little over eight weeks old. And so we will be putting a very detailed plan on our website . . . . One thing I want to make sure of is that you're going -- I'm not sure whether you're going to the campaign website or my Senate website. So we haven't transitioned all that information from our Senate website over to the campaign website." [Awkward ending; obvious, Obama should have stopped at "our campaign is a little over eight weeks old" ]

Why does the media claim he lacks substance? Obama: “I know that one of the running threads, or one of the narratives that’s established itself among the mainstream media is this notion ‘Well, you know, Obama has pretty good style, he can deliver a pretty good speech, but he seems to prioritize rhetoric over substance ... “Now, factually that’s incorrect ... The problem is that that’s not what you guys have been reporting on. You’ve been reporting how I look in a swimsuit." (AP, 2/10)

Why did his staff respond to the Clinton campaign after the David Geffen affair? Obama: “I did tell my staff, and this is reported, I think, in The New York Times, that I thought that we probably should have just entirely left it alone. They had their testosterone going and felt that we had been unfairly attacked."

Also -- why did Obama say he didn't know about the controversy until late into that day? "I just heard about this as I got off the plane. It's not clear to me why I would be apologizing for someone else's remarks. I mean, I don't know the entire story." Also, he was getting a haircut. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"I don't think it's for me to decide. I can't decide when life begins."

-- Rudy Giuliani, "Fox News Sunday," 5/13

Chris Dodd's going up.

Democratic consultants say that Dodd will be the latest Dem to air early campaign ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and will broadcast a single television ad nationally on CNN.

The ads will air in Manchester, New Hampshire and in several Iowa markets. A tally by one of Dodd's opponents estimates the total cost at more than $120,000. The ads beginning tomorrow and are slated to run through Sunday. Dodd has also purchased a single $8,000 spot on CNN tomorrow. Further buys on other national cable networks are expected.

Three Dems -- Dodd, Bill Richardson and John Edwards -- have aired ads, along with two Republicans -- ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Duncan Hunter. More details a bit later. [MARC AMBINDER]

This was posted to YouTube quite recently.

Somehow, we missed this:

STEPHANOPOULOS: .... You've been a strong supporter of affirmative action...

OBAMA: Yes.

STEPHANOPOULOS: ... and you're a constitutional law professor,
so let's go back in the classroom. I'm your student, I say,
"Professor, you and your wife went to Harvard Law School. You've got
plenty of money. You're running for president. Why should your
daughters, when they go to college, get affirmative action?"

OBAMA: Well, first of all, I think that my daughters should
probably be treated by any admissions officer as folks who are pretty
advantaged, and I think that there's nothing wrong with us taking that
into account as we consider admissions policies at universities.

I think that we should take into account white kids who have been
disadvantaged and have grown up in poverty and shown themselves to
have what it takes to succeed.

So I don't think those concepts are mutually exclusive. I think
what we can say is that in our society, race and class still
intersect, that there are a lot of African-American kids who are still
struggling, that even those who are in the middle class may be first
generation as opposed to fifth or sixth generation college attendees,
and that we all have an interest in bringing as many people together
to help build this country.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Sandra Day O'Connor wrote that in 25 years,
affirmative action may no longer be necessary. Is she right?

OBAMA: I would like to think that if we make good decisions and
we invest in early childhood education, improve K-12, if we have done
what needs to be done to ensure that kids who are qualified to go to
college can afford it, that affirmative action becomes a diminishing
tool for us to achieve racial equality in this society.

The meme is out there: Rudy Giuliani is going to skip Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and place all his chips on the February 5th Tsunami Tuesday contests.

Though there's a kernel of truth in the idea that Giuliani is placing more emphasis on the Feb. 5, contests, it's simply not true that he is writing off the three early states -- not yet, anyway.

A Giuliani aide said that the campaign has, in fact, budgeted millions for the early contests. It has more staff members in New Hampshire now than California or Florida combined. Watch New Hampshire -- it's where Giuliani wants to make a stand. Aides concede that Giuliani might not follow the normal script in South Carolina and Iowa, but they insist that he will campaign there -- and that he will spend money to win there. Granted, aides concede that winning South Carolina and Iowa -- are, in that order, not easy as pie.

Don't forget Nevada. The Republican caucuses will probably be held 1/19. We're told that Giuliani is running to win those caucuses and that a gaggle full of key endorsements will wend his way after the state legislative session ends. [MARC AMBINDER]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

For the first time as a presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, posed a question about entitlement reform, said that "everything was on the table," except for private accounts, and in doing so, because the first top-tier Democratic presidential candidate to acknowledge that Social Security deficits could not, and would not, be solved without pain.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You've also said that with Social Security, everything should be on the table.

OBAMA: Yes.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Raising the retirement age?

OBAMA: Everything should be on the table.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Raising payroll taxes?

OBAMA: Everything should be on the table. I think we should
approach it the same way Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan did back in
1983. They came together. I don't want to lay out my preferences
beforehand, but what I know is that Social Security is solvable. It
is not as difficult a problem as we're going to have with Medicaid and
Medicare.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Partial privatization?

OBAMA: Privatization is not something that I would consider, and
the reason is this: Social Security, I think, is -- that's the floor.
That's the baseline. Social Security is that safety net that can't be
frayed, and we shouldn't put at risk.

As MSNBC's First Read:

But isn’t he right? Experts say that to shore up Social Security, you either have to raise the retirement age, raise taxes, cut some benefits, or some combination of the three.

The politics? It's tempting to say that no Florida Democrat -- no Florida Democrat beyond a certain age -- would ever vote for a candidate who threatened to raise the retirement age. But emprically, there's not a whole lot of evidence to back that up. It's true that older Floridians have the purchasing power in primaries, and it's easy to imagine the television ads attacking Obama in Miami-Dade and Ft. Lauderdale. But -- will John Edwards or Hillary Clinton have the gumption to claim that they can fix Social Security and Medicare without the options troika mentioned above? And will any lower-tier candidate have enough money by the time Floridians are paying attention to even try? Yes, Dick Gephardt was able to dent Howard Dean's margin in Iowa by pointing to Dean's own honest remarks about the subject, but few Iowans seemed to care on caucus day. [MARC AMBINDER]

Taking oppo from opposing candidates? Well we never! Okay, we have.

Confusion over whether Rudy Giuliani will participate in the Ames straw poll:

A Hagel/Bloomberg ticket? Bloomberg/Hagel? Said Sen. Hagel on Face: "Asked if he could see himself and Bloomberg on a ticket in "no particular order": "It's a great country to think about a New York boy and a Nebraska boy to be teamed up leading this nation" (CBS, 5/13)."

Fred Thompson wins a straw poll in Wisconsin.

Barack Obama draws 3,000K in Missouri.

John McCain doesn't talk about his kids much, so this Mother's Day video card is especially interesting.

The Club's "Report Card" on Giuliani includes some ready-for-television-ad statements, including this wet kiss of a subject heading:

Rudy Giuliani Enacted Pro-Growth Policies Despite Liberal New York Environment

Club President Pat Toomey elaborates for National Review Online:

Despite powerful local obstacles, Giuliani was able to significantly cut taxes; hold spending increases down below the rates of inflation and population growth; overhaul the welfare system; deregulate and privatize many local government services; and join the fight for school choice. These accomplishments played a crucial role in transforming New York City from an economic basket case into a thriving economy.

The most important question is what Giuliani’s mayoral tenure tells us about how he would govern if elected president. The answer is not clear cut, as some of his local positions are worrisome and some of his federal positions are still unknown. Nonetheless, one cannot help but conclude that if Giuliani could accomplish the pro-growth record he did in the hostile environment of New York City, the potential for him to accomplish even more amid the more politically balanced federal government is great.

A tipster sends along this report about Sen. Fred Thompson's speech before the Council for National Policy, a conservative club with deep ties to the movement, at the Ritz Carlton in Tyson's Corner this weekend.

1. Thompson got a standing ovation when we entered. 2. His speech started on judges and pivoted to Scooter Libby. No one understood why he was talking about Libby. 3. People seemed to like him because they felt like they had to. However, Thompson's presence empowered people to bad-talk Romney, McCain, and others, in a way that they hadn't done in previous CNP meetings. 4. People also recognized that he is not perfect for them. They recogized that it is awkward, even in context.

Rudy Giuliani, in Houston, on abortion:

"Everybody's got to make a choice," Giuliani told about 500 students, faculty and staff crammed into an auditorium at Houston Baptist University. "How important are the differences and how important are the other issues we may agree on."

Giuliani emphasized his conservative credentials on tax cuts, crime and the war in Iraq before clarifying his support for abortion, a position he acknowledged was unlikely to be shared by those listening.

Describing his belief that abortion was "morally wrong," Giuliani said he has opposed it all his life. But he said he believes the decision should ultimately be left to individuals and that their decisions should be respected.

"In a country like ours ... I believe you have to respect their viewpoint and give them a level of choice. I would grant women the right to make that choice," he said.

After the jump, the Catholic League's Bill Donohue is in full froth:

Why, right here in river city.

The location of the Council for National Policy meeting he's speaking at is supposed to be secret. The CNP likes its privacy.

So -- in order to respect their wishes, please don't drop by the Ritz Carlton in Tyson's Corner on Saturday. [MARC AMBINDER]

Says Newsbusters:

Obama makes another mistake, will media report it? --The junior senator and god-in-the-making bungles the facts on the fuel efficiency of American and Japanese cars. Will the media report this "lie?"

We mentioned it yesterday.

Allegedly, Obama said that

"While our fuel standards haven't moved from 27.5 miles per gallon in two decades, both China and Japan have surpassed us, with Japanese cars now getting an average of 45 miles to the gallon," Obama said.

"I'm not sure where he got that figure," Toyota spokesman Mike Michels said. "No carmaker gets 45 m.p.g. Ours is closer to 30 m.p.g."

Obama was right. In the US, Japanese-made cars would get 45 m.p.g. assuming they were subjected to the US fuel economy test cycle. Here's the wonky paper he based his claim on. [MARC AMBINDER]

From today's Hotline:

"We didn't get elected to worry just about the fate of the Republican Party."

-- VP Cheney, "Special Report," FNC, 5/10

From CNN:

Obama publicly scolds staff for scheduling decision

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, told New Hampshire firefighters Friday that he was frustrated his staff did not build into his travel schedule a personal appearance before their union meeting taking place in the coastal city of Portsmouth. Instead, the presidential hopeful had to address the IAFF and Federation of State and Provincial Firefighters Association this morning by telephone.

"I have to tell you, I wish I was there," Obama said over a speakerphone. "My staff had already scheduled some things and they couldn't wiggle out if it. They heard from me a little bit because I wasn't happy I couldn't be there personally."

Obama went on to say that "having a chance to talk to you guys is important. And I'm not going to let a thousand miles between us keep me from saying what I have to say."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

Remember, we think ex-Maj. Leader Bill Frist will wind up being Fred Thompson's finance chair... or campaign chair... so heed the words he writes to his VolPAC community:

Karyn and I are spending our final morning in Washington today, having packed all our boxes and helped load the van for Nashville. Want to share quickly with you 3 points:

1. First, Fred Thompson is continuing his "front porch" conversations. For sometime now he has been speaking directly to Americans and wisely relying upon the New Media to get his message out. His ABC radio podcasts are downloaded everyday and linked to by many popular, conservative blogs including: Red State, Wizbang, Pajamas Media, etc. Since I began blogging and podcasting almost two years ago, I know how effective this type of outreach can be.

2. Fred continues to win presidential straw polls nationwide, despite the fact he is not on the ballot and has not raised or spent a dime. From Gwinnett County, Georgia to state party victories in Washington and Oklahoma and most recently a victory in Washington where Fred garnered over 50% of the ballots cast.

3. Finally, Fred Thompson continually places well in the polls often running ahead of the announced candidates Most recently, in a WRAL-TV Raleigh, North Carolina Public Policy Poll where 35% of respondents said they supported him, while only 16% supported McCain and 13% supported Romney. Something is in the air.

First Read:

*** A Curious Absence: Biden, Clinton, Dodd, and Edwards all travel to New Hampshire to address the International Association of Fire Fighters; Richardson spoke to them yesterday. Where’s Obama? He’s in Iowa, where he will speak to the labor union by phone. Obama’s campaign says its schedule conflict, but we also couldn’t help but notice yesterday’s article in The Hill, in which IAFF President Harold Schaitberger said that Obama’s initial speech to the union -- as well as McCain’s -- wasn’t well received by members. The IAFF, of course, was the sole union to back John Kerry in 2003-2004 before he went on to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire.

Here's what Obama's campaign is thinking. It's fairly simple, actually. First, he really does have a scheduling conflict. It's a small conflict -- he's not participating in, say, major surgery. Later in the day, he'll be endorsed by two MO congressmen.

But choosing not to attend is a way of demonstrating Obama's belief that his campaign is different, that he won't always bend to the whims of established interests (no matter how powerful they are), and that he won't put himself in the line of of fire, so to speak, if it's not necessary. That said, Obama doesn't really want to offend the firefighters.

Obama, in fact, is speaking to the convention via telephone as we .... type.....these....words. Per a source in the room:

Barack is talking now. He's giving a much more personal and focused appeal for support today than last time. That's good. He's also making a broad appeal based on winning.

Not a coincidence: all those profiles you're reading this a.m. of Michelle Obama

Going into Mother's Day, Mrs. Obama graces the cover of the USA Today -- remember, the nation's most-read newspaper will be in newsboxes all weekend -- and the Washington Post.

Why? We're "introducing Michelle Obama to the American people," according to an Obama aide.

Michelle Obama has a résumé packed with accomplishments. But her campaign appearances are not meant to signal that Obama & Obama offer voters "two for the price of one," which is what Bill Clinton told voters they would get in 1992 if he and Hillary Rodham Clinton moved into the White House.

Instead, Michelle Obama's casual, no-notes talks focus on the commitment to perseverance and hard work she learned from her late father — who worked for the Chicago water department even after he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis — and her mother, who has worked at a bank since raising her two kids.

Obama says her husband shares those values and is "confident without being cocky" and "the real deal." She doesn't talk about race or the prospect that she and her husband would be the first African-American first lady and president.

Obama's openness doesn't extend to discussions about what sort of first lady she would be, what policies she might want to influence or whether she would work outside the White House. "I'm really thinking one foot in front of the other," she says. "What do we have to do today? This week?"

What's a Web site's worth in 2008? It's a question that bears asking in light of the recent incident over Barack Obama's MySpace volunteer asking for payment for his work on the social networking site.

After all, direct mail firms can prove their price tag how much money they've brought in for a candidate. Field staffs can show off how many volunteers they've recruited for a campaigns' ground game. Communication shops have the press clips to prove it. But other than online donations, how does an Internet department prove its worth? It's more difficult to put a price on MySpace Friends, unique hits or volunteer bloggers.

OTD has compiled FEC Q1 numbers from PoliticalMoneyLine.com in conjunction with information from the campaigns on who's working on and consulting for WH '08ers Web sites. The full chart is after the jump, but here's a preview of some of the more notable numbers:

*Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton paid the most for their actual Web sites, about $412K and $202K, respectively, in Q1.
*Dennis Kucinich spent by far the largest percentage of his total expenditures on his Internet shop and Web site -- in no small part because his total expenditures were very low.
*Who wins the Web site value award for Q1? Chris Dodd and Barack Obama. Though both had Senate Web sites off which they could build, but presentation and features are certainly above par for their price tag.
*Obama and Richardson both listed payments to ActBlue/Auburn Quad. Edwards' campaign should also be part of this group, considering he's raised millions through the Democratic donation portal.
*Is it possible to guess how much ABC PAC (the Republican answer to ActBlue) charge? By simple math on the report, Giuliani raised $43 on the Web site in Q1 and paid the Web site $3. Judging only by those numbers, ABC PAC is taking a 6.9% cut off of every donation -- in the range of a standard amount.
*While Democrats have spurred quite a few firms since Dean's '04 campaign, some of the Republican Internet firms are on their first cycle. Among the newbies for a WH campaign: ElectionEdge.Us, LCM Strategies, Molecular and Adfero Group [SHIRA TOEPLITZ].

Check out the list after the jump.... Questions? Comments Suggestions? E-mail us.

So the political world spazzed out yesterday with word from the New York Times that Giuliani would embrace his pro-choice vantage point on abortion and begin to offer a "forthright affirmation of his support for abortion rights in public forums."

Does that mean he'll repudiate his stance on partial birth abortion, his support for the Hyde amendment, his support for parential notification?

No.

In fact, we'll told that he'll acknowledge that he has evolved from, say, 1997, when his campaign filled out a questionnaire in such a way that only a dyed-in-the-wool pro-choicer or a committed Planned Parenthood donor would approve.

What Giuliani will do is explain his thinking in a more detailed way. He will make it clear that he believes that a woman has the right to choose -- perhaps not a constitutional right to choose, but a deeply-ingrained political and social right to determine whether to bear a child. [MARC AMBINDER]

Most of the pundit talk last night focused on the Iraq funding bill and what's next in that process:

VP Cheney sat down with FNC's Baier:

On Iraq: "We didn't get elected to be popular. We didn't get elected to worry just about the fate of the Republican party. Our mission is to do everything we can to prevail in what is now, we believe, a global conflict, a fundamental test of the character of the American people, whether or not we're going to be able to prevail against one of the most evil opponents we have ever faced."

On Tenet's book: "I haven't read George's book, but to state that somehow the president didn't spend a lot of time thinking about this or talking about it -- we had extensive conversations. Maybe George wasn't included in those. But the fact of the matter is this decision was weighed as heavily and given as careful consideration as any I have ever been involved in and I have worked for four presidents."

More: "When George Tenet sat in the Oval Office and the president of the United States asked him directly and said, George how good is the case against Saddam on weapons of mass destruction, and the director of the CIA said it is a slam dunk, Mr. President. It is a slam dunk. ... It's an accurate reflection of what happened. It is not to say that George walked in and said that and everybody decided to run off and go to war. Not by any means. We had been receiving evidence for months. I think this conversation occurred some time in late 2002, as I recall."

Asked if he has any hard feelings toward Tenet: "No, if I had ill feelings toward everybody that has written books, it would be a pretty long list" ("Special Report," FNC, 5/10).

AL IS STILL TALKING

Al Sharpton stopped by "Hardball" to talk about his Mormonism comments:

Sharpton: "I talked today to two of the leaders on the top apostles group of the Mormon Church. I said to them, I was certainly not being anti-Mormon. ... I am going to go see them in Utah. I have said, if I offended Mormons with the misuse of my words, I would apologize to Mormons. ... I think Romney is going to play politics. But I think that we need to have a dialogue."

More: "I have no problem talking to Mr. Romney and explaining to him what I meant and what I didn't say" (MSNBC, 5/10).

And on "LKL" Marie Osmond was asked about the Sharpton/Romney exchange

Osmond: "Al has not led a perfect life. I think people need to be responsible for what they say. And it's unfortunate. ... I'm not saying I'm voting for Mitt. I'm not saying anything. You know we have a year, year and a half left to make our decisions. But I think that it's really, really important, especially as a mother, what I try to teach my children, is who cares what celebrities say, who cares what other people say? What's important is to study the issues" (CNN, 5/10). [EMILY GOODIN]

Mr. Colbert's liberal/Democratic writers, clearly, are not fans of Mrs. Clinton.

Prediction: Fort Dix will be the subject of a question during next Tuesday's debate in South Carolina.

From an e-mail circulated by Tom Tancredo's campaign:

Subject: Should terrorists who illegally enter the United States in order to kill Americans be put on a "path to citizenship?"

May 10, 2007

Dear [Hotline],

Last week, federal agents broke up a terrorist plot to kill U.S. soldiers at Fort Dix, New Jersey. Three of the six men arrested were in the United States illegally…..just as many of the 9/11/01 terrorists were.

If the President, “open borders” supporters in Congress and the other presidential candidates have their way, future terrorists will keep coming into our country…..and once they’re here, they will be eligible for a “path to citizenship!”

HOW CAN WASHINGTON POLITICIANS EVEN TALK ABOUT A “PATH TO CITIZENSHIP” WHEN WE HAVEN’T FIXED OUR BROKEN IMMIGRATION SYSTEM AND SECURED OUR BORDERS AGAINST TERRORISTS?

I’ve had it with politicians who declare “war on terrorism,” then refuse to secure our borders …. and that’s why I am running for President!

Click here to join Team Tancredo

Incredibly, even as the illegal aliens who were plotting to kill American soldiers at Fort Dix are now sitting in jail, the President and key members of Congress are preparing to launch another “comprehensive immigration reform” bill….a bill that would give AMNESTY to illegal immigrants, like the ones arrested last week in New Jersey!

This is an outrage! It is an insult to the memory of the Americans who died at the hands of illegal aliens in 2001, it is an insult to our servicemen and women in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is an insult to the millions of immigrants who come to our nation legally, and it proves the political establishment in Washington is NOT SERIOUS when it comes to fixing our broken immigration laws and securing our nation!

Will you help me stand up for securing our borders, saying “NO” to amnesty for illegal aliens (like the terrorists arrested in New Jersey), and for REAL conservative values?

Click here to join Team Tancredo

If you are fed up with Washington’s failure to secure our borders, then I urge you to join me in my presidential campaign.

I am leading the fight against amnesty, and I making this fight the centerpiece of my campaign for President. Last year, with the help of hundreds of thousands of Americans, I stopped an amnesty bill from becoming law……and now I urgently need your help to defeat this new attempt to grant amnesty to illegal aliens!

I need you to make a contribution ……of $25, $50, $100 or more….to “Tancredo for President” today, so that I can rally the voters to our cause, win and stop this new push to pass an amnesty bill. With your help today, we can stop amnesty…..and we can nominate a candidate for President who stands for border security, real immigration reform, and true conservative values!

Sincerely,

Tom Tancredo

P.S. The only way we can guarantee that a “path to citizenship” for illegal aliens, like the terrorists arrested in New Jersey last week, is defeated, and that the illegal immigration crisis is fully addressed in this presidential campaign, is by running a presidential campaign that is effective and well-funded. Please be generous when you make your contribution!

Kind of significant when the proprietor of one of the most widely read conservative websites officially ditches Mitt Romney and admits that, if the election were held today, he'd vote for a guy he once said he'd never vote for: John McCain.

When you think of John Edwards, think Iowa, and when you think of Iowa Democrats, then of Iraq. That's all you need to know, really, about why every incremental political advance for Edwards, every chance he gets to convince even one caucus goer that he's right, he takes.

From a letter:

This is the critical moment in our effort to end the war.

Congress is considering abandoning it's plan to end the war in favor of yet another "extension" for President Bush that doesn't bring a single soldier home. We have to turn up the heat—and we have to move fast.

As of this morning, 101,180 Americans have joined our call for Congress to stand up to Bush and end the war. We have a plan to get these names onto every desk and doorstep in Washington D.C., but we need your help.

Last night, my staff put the signatures into a full page ad for The Washington Post and now we need to raise $29,559 to rush it into print and keep the pressure on. We need 1,000 people to contribute $29.56 to make it happen. Can you chip in your $29.56 today?

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

Oh, it's on. GOPers have long wanted to avoid Armageddon on abortion, but their top WH '08er won't let them.

-- Giuliani has tried to be on 3 sides of a 2-sided coin: He hoped to pacify pro-lifers by pledging to appoint "strict constructionist" judges and by taking baby steps toward them. It never really worked. After 3 especially rough weeks, he has decided to embrace his pro-choice creds with gusto. What happens next? Three possibilities: his camp will collapse under the pressure, the GOP will fragment, or the GOP will "move on" from abortion, as he has urged. A strong plurality of primary voters could find that final option offensive.

-- Is the debate over abortion really a stand-in for discussion of other issues? Religion in the public sphere and public versus private morality? Social control versus individual liberty? The sacred v. the secular? For years, the GOP has worn its religious sympathies proudly. But now their most electable nominee might be an NYC cultural liberal who represents everything that one major stand of conservatism has been fighting against.

1. Poor advance work: did an aide to Rudy Giuliani really tell an Iowa family that they weren't rich enough to host a campaign event?

Last weekend Deb and Jerry VonSprecken of Olin received a call from former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign office asking them if they would be interested in holding a campaign rally on May 4, after she had donated to his campaign....[they agreed].... .... On Tuesday Deb received a call from Giuliani's Des Monies office and was asked to call New York....."They wanted to know our assets," she revealed, and added that she and Jerry have a modest 80 acre farm and raise cattle. ..... Later she received a call from Tony Delgado at the Des Monies location. "Tony said, 'I'm sorry, you aren't worth a million dollars and he is campaigning on the Death Tax right now.' then he said they weren't going to be able to come," Deb continued.

2. Toyota fact checks Barack Obama on emissions.

"While our fuel standards haven't moved from 27.5 miles per gallon in two decades, both China and Japan have surpassed us, with Japanese cars now getting an average of 45 miles to the gallon," Obama said.

"I'm not sure where he got that figure," Toyota spokesman Mike Michels said. "No carmaker gets 45 m.p.g. Ours is closer to 30 m.p.g."

3. Those Bill Richardson ads are cute, but might they be too cute? Doesn't he want voters to take him more seriously? Also: resumes are for veep candidates. The ad kinda screams "Pick Me!"

4. Erick Erickson may not like Tom Cole's strategy for recapturing House seats, but Rahm Emanuel did pretty much the same thing in '06 and it didn't turn out so bad...

5. Sounds like Joe Biden endorses John Edwards's strategy for the Senate Iraq bill.

Yesterday afternoon, in a hotel conference room just off exit nine on the New Jersey Turnpike, the state Republican Party did presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani a huge favor: they agreed to consider an unprecedented rule revision that could, in effect, rig the New Jersey Republican primary, award Rudy Giuliani 52 delegates, save his campaign millions of dollars, and establish the state’s most conservative county chairman as an ingenious powerbroker.

Historically, New Jersey's Republican primary has allotted delegates proportionally, based on performance in the state's congressional districts. Since 1968, the primary has been held late in the cycle and has therefore ratified the choices of Republicans in early-voting caucuses and primaries.

Last year, bowing to pressure, New Jersey decided to move its 2008 primary to Feb. 5 in order to give its citizens more of a role. That was before most Republicans really believed that Giuliani would run.

Continue reading Marc Ambinder's dispatch.

From today's Hotline:

"I think he appreciated the fact that people were willing to really open up and give it to him. "

-- Rep. Ray LaHood (R-IL) on Pres. Bush, "American Morning," CNN, 5/10

A few days ago Al Sharpton said during a religious debate: "As for the one Mormon running for office, those that really believe in God will defeat him anyway, so don't worry about that -- that's a temporary situation."

And Mitt Romney hit back hard, accusing the African American reverend, the man who got Don Imus fired for his comments about the black Rutgers Univ. women's basketball team, of bigotry. Romney, in an interview on MSNBC: "I can only wonder if there's not bigotry that still remains in America. That's an extraordinary thing for someone to say. I can't imagine what prompted him to say something of that nature. ... It's an extraordinarily bigoted kind of statement" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/9).

Then Sharpton went on CNN and hit right back, accusing the Mormons of bigotry: "If, prior to '65, '78, whenever it was, they did not see blacks as equal, I don't believe that as real worshipers of God, because I don't believe God distinguishes between people. That's not bigotry. That is responding to their bigotry" ("PZ Now," CNN, 5/9). [EMILY GOODIN]

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates -- Updated 24/7

New Hampshire -- NHNewslinks.com

New Jersey -- PoliticsNJ

California -- The Roundup

Missouri -- JohnCombest.com

Illinois -- Capitol Fax

Tennessee -- Tennessee Politics Blog

Florida -- SayfieReview.com

Alabama -- Doc's Political Parlor

Colorado -- ColoradoPols.com

Wisconsin -- WisPolitics

Texas -- Harvey Kronberg's Quorum Report

Georgia -- Political and Policy Digest

Iowa -- IowaPolitics.com

Arizona -- AZ Political News

... on the cover of Time.

Is Sen. Barack Obama thinking about a major television ad blitz?

Democratic media buyers say that Obama’s media team asked television stations in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada about available ad time and rates.

Robert Gibbs, an Obama spokesman, said the inquiries were "routine" exercises and should not be interpreted as signaling that an actual buy is imminent. He said the media team asked about rates through the end of the year.

Obama’s media team is led by strategist David Axelrod and includes veteran Dem ad-crafter Jim Margolis. Asking about buying time does not mean that time will be bought, but campaigns are generally aware that once they talk to TV stations about purchasing time, their intentions become public.

Sen. Hillary Clinton commands handsome leads in all national polls and leads in three out of the four early primary states. The exception is Iowa, where ex-Sen, John Edwards consistently outpolls the Democratic field. Obama’s team was cheered by a recent Wall Street Journal poll question which suggested that of those Democrats paying close attention to the primary horse race, Obama had the most support.

Judging by the large crowds Obama attracts in locales as varied as Atlanta and Oakland, the excitement that greeted February entrance into the race has not abated. National and private polling shows that Obama seems to have a foothold among Democratic professionals, students, and elite activists, while Clinton does better among blue collar voters, African Americans, and women. In most Democratic primaries, Clinton’s group is larger than Obama’s group.

So far, two Democrats – Ex-Sen. John Edwards and NM Gov. Bill Richardson, and two Republicans – ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Tom Tancredo – have advertised on television and radio this cycle. [MARC AMBINDER]

Jonathan Rick:

According to a press release released on Tuesday by Ron Paul's campaign, since the GOP presidential debate on May 3, the congressman has

1. Placed a close third (18%) in a debate poll on Drudge.
2. Won an ABCNews.com debate poll with 84% (after initially being excluded).
3. Won a C-SPAN online GOP candidate poll with 69%.
4. Became the third most-mentioned person in the blogosphere, beating out Paris Hilton, according to Technorati.
5. Produced a YouTube video that was ranked the 8th most-popular overall video and the most-viewed political video.
6. Been featured, by popular demand, on the front of Digg.
7. Generated so many bulletin posts on MySpace that the site owner News Corp. blocked all additional posts about Paul.
8. Became a "most searched" term on Google and Yahoo!.
9. Saw a quadrupling of daily visitors to RonPaul2008.com.

Lots of Iraq talk last night:

NBC's Russert, reporting on a meeting between GOP congressional members and the admin: "They told the president, and one said, quote, 'My district is prepared for defeat. We need candor. We need honesty, Mr. President.' The president responded, I don't want to pass this off to another president. I don't want to pass this off particularly to a Democratic president, underscoring he understood how serious the situation was. ... The Republican congressman then went on to say, The word about the war and its progress cannot come from the White House or even you, Mr. President, there's no longer any credibility. It has to come from General Petraeus. The meeting lasted an hour and 15 minutes and was, in the words of one, remarkable for the bluntness and no-holds-barred honesty in the message delivered by all these Republican congressmen" ("Nightly News," 5/9).

Washington Post's Milbank: "These are, while not Republican leaders, are certainly mainstream Republicans, vulnerable Republicans, the president obviously realizing that not only does this Iraq war risk a larger Democratic majorities in Congress, but risks handing the presidency to the Democrats as well" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/9).

Rep. Chris Shays (R-CT): "I think what's going to ultimately happen is Reid is going to decide to take up a bill and fund for the rest of this year, the fiscal year, until the end of September, and I think that's about as sensible as he can do at the moment" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/9).

FNC's Kondracke: "The vice president is over there telling them to move and meanwhile, the prime minister's national security advisor Mowaffak al-Rubaie was in Washington yesterday trying to get members of Congress to be patient. ... If they could meet in the middle, a happy medium somewhere, that would be fine, if there were some patience in Washington and some speed in Iraq this might all work out" ("Special Report," 5/9).

AL'S LATEST ISSUE

Rev. Al Sharpton was on "PZ Now" and asked about his comments on Mitt Romney's religion.

Sharpton: "The argument was over atheists. The argument was not about Mormon -- real believers, not atheists, was going to vote against him anyway, because I don't think Romney will win. ... I didn't bring this up -- Hitchens did -- has opened the door for me to say, well, wait a minute. Is Hitchens right?"

Sharpton, on Mormonism: "If, prior to '65, '78, whenever it was, they did not see blacks as equal, I don't believe that as real worshipers of God, because I don't believe God distinguishes between people. That's not bigotry. That is responding to their bigotry" (CNN, 5/9).

Christopher Hitchens, asked his reaction to Sharpton's comments: "He's a bit of a crowd pleaser. In fact, that's one of the best-known things about him. And he was trying to be funny. But he was reacting to a point that I made seriously, which was, it surprises me that Governor Romney is not asked more often, nor at all, about the fact that his church was officially racist until at least 1965" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 5/9). [EMILY GOODIN]

Today's Hotline Spotlight:

The Dem divide apparently runs along the Potomac River. On one side, MD's O'Malley lines up today behind Clinton, while VA's Kaine stood last p.m. with his chosen '08er, Obama. The split reflects a larger trend in the race (establishment/blue collar Dems for her vs. indie/"vision" Dems for him). But can anyone win the party nod without bringing both groups on board?

-- It's a common divide, most recently on display in Gore vs. Bradley '00. It shows up not only among Dem leaders ('tho it's particularly pronounced there) but among rank-and-filers and health-care focused workers. HRC, for example, wouldn't dream of skipping the 5/11 firefighters convo in NH; Obama will send his regrets from St. Louis. Obama, meanwhile, draws big from indies and luxury-class Dems with a stronger focus on big pictures than policy specifics.

-- Does something eventually have to give? In NH, Dante Scala says, candidates who build coalitions, rather than those who only mobilize a few factions, are most likely to succeed in later primaries, even if they don't win first place in his state. The Wilson Bridge connects MD to VA. Who will bridge the Dem divide?

From the AP:

"...the Vatican spokesman, the Rev. Federico Lombardi, later issued a statement approved by the pope clarifying the remarks. The statement said the pope did not intend to excommunicate anyone. Politicians who vote in favor of abortion should not receive the sacrament of Holy Communion, Lombardi said.

"Since excommunication hasn't been declared by the Mexican bishops, the pope has no intention himself of declaring it," said Lombardi, who was on board the plane. "Legislative action in favor of abortion is incompatible with participation in the Eucharist. ... Politicians exclude themselves from Communion."

Pressed further by journalists if the lawmakers were excommunicated, Lombardi reiterated: "No, they exclude themselves from Communion."

Based on the latest Diageo-Hotline poll, Hillary Clinton leads on the issues like no other Dem -- but can she address those electability concerns, or do GOPers have reason to hope?

Visit HotlineTV.net for the latest predictions, to sign up for email alerts or to view our now daily webisodes, plus check in on Fridays for the full weekly show!