An Internal Romney Memo Tries To Lower Expectations
Call it the third law of political dynamics: every time a candidate rises in the polls, there is an equal and opposite attempt by the candidate's strategist to tamp down expectations.
Exhibit A is a new memo from chief Mitt Romney strategist Alex Gage to key supporters of the former Mass. governor.
Mr. Gage writes that Romney "is building real momentum leading in to the summer months and the Iowa straw poll. " But "Here’s what Gov. Romney’s momentum does and doesn’t mean for the campaign in the coming months. We cannot rest on our laurels—this campaign is a marathon, not a sprint."
So while Romney is "leading or tied" in the early states, there is "a long road ahead of us, and it will be bumpy."
Also -- those pesky national polls showing Romney well behind Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are "lagging indicators." [editor's comment: true.]
Writes Gage:
"Our achievement has been in introducing Gov. Romney to these voters—most still know only a few details about him and are by no means firmly-committed supporters. The same is true of McCain and Giuliani supporters at this stage at well. Watch for other campaigns to attempt to raise expectations for us in the coming days in an attempt to lower their own. Despite non-stop media coverage, even voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just starting to pay attention and gather information about the candidates. The race is extremely fluid and unstructured, as evidenced by the 87% of voters in the Des Moines Register poll who said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate:.
You can read the full, unvarnished memo after the jump. [MARC AMBINDER]
Gov. Romney has experienced a recent spike in publicity after strong performances in the first two GOP presidential debates and appearances on the cover of Time magazine and 60 Minutes. Combined with the success of Sign Up America! and the continued hard work of our grassroots team, Gov. Romney is building real momentum leading in to the summer months and the Iowa straw poll.
Here’s what Gov. Romney’s momentum does and doesn’t mean for the campaign in the coming months. We cannot rest on our laurels—this campaign is a marathon, not a sprint.
GOV. ROMNEY IS LEADING OR TIED FOR THE LEAD IN KEY EARLY STATES
New survey results in Iowa and New Hampshire show that Gov. Romney has continued to make steady upward progress and is now leading the field or statistically tied for the lead in key early states.
Polls by the Des Moines Register in Iowa (5/12 to 5/16) and Zogby International in New Hampshire (5/15 to 5/16) show Gov. Romney leading the field by 12 points and 16 points, respectively. The Register poll even shows Gov. Romney expanding his lead to 18 points among likely Iowa straw poll attendees. Both of these polls have their flaws, but by they are by and large accurate gauges of Gov. Romney’s strong support in those states today.
As shown in the table below, Gov. Romney’s support has been steadily increasing in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida over the past few months. The campaign has been concentrating its effort building strong organizations in these states and this is where we expected to see the greatest gains.
Gov. Romney’s Support, Monthly Avg. Of All Public Polls
Mar. Avg. Apr. Avg. May Avg. Apr./May Change
Iowa 11.5% 14.0% 21.7% +7.7
New Hampshire 18.7% 24.5% 35.0% +10.5
South Carolina N/A 10.8% 9.0% -1.8
Florida 7.3% 7.0% 10.0% +3.0
Michigan 16.7% 10.0% 24.0% +14.0
Keep in mind that at this stage in the campaign, national polls are lagging indicators that are a poor judge of a candidate’s strength. In May 2003, Joe Lieberman was leading the Democratic field and John Kerry was in third place nationwide; Bill Clinton was at less than 2% nationwide in May 1991. National polls oftentimes do not catch up with state-by-state polling until after the first early primaries when voters start to tune in—John Kerry did not poll higher than 13% in nationwide Gallup poll until after he won Iowa and New Hampshire.
BUT THE ROAD AHEAD OF US IS LONG—AND IT WILL BE BUMPY
But while we should feel good about coming so far so quickly, we should also not lose sight of the fact that our early lead in Iowa and New Hampshire today guarantees nothing.
Our achievement has been in introducing Gov. Romney to these voters—most still know only a few details about him and are by no means firmly-committed supporters. The same is true of McCain and Giuliani supporters at this stage at well. Watch for other campaigns to attempt to raise expectations for us in the coming days in an attempt to lower their own.
Despite non-stop media coverage, even voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are just starting to pay attention and gather information about the candidates. The race is extremely fluid and unstructured, as evidenced by the 87% of voters in the Des Moines Register poll who said they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.
Gov. Romney’s lead today is a testament to our successful advertising and grassroots strategy, but other campaigns will undoubtedly redouble their own efforts to catch up. The other major candidates have not yet run ads, and we should expect them to receive a temporary bounce in the polls when they go up on the air.
As in any campaign, we will be prepared for inevitable ups and downs. Some polls will show Gov. Romney in the lead; others will not. But ultimately, Gov. Romney’s message, field organization, and momentum continue to make him well-positioned to win the Republican nomination.
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Is Hotline official campaign website of mutiple choice Romney?
Hotline is just reporting the news...and the news is that it is becoming more and more likely that Governor Romney will get the GOP nod and win in 2008.
"Multiple Choice" Romney.
That's cute.
It grossly distorts reality, but it's cute.
The tag line is supposed to be "multiple choice Mitt" you idiot, it is a weak attempt at Alliteration and you just killed it dead. Multiple choice Romney? Not much poetic about that Mr. What.
The moniker is not accurate as those at the extreme ends of both parties would have you believe. These are the people that are so bad at negotiation and articulation that they would rather shut down the government than work together. They'd rather talk "at" people instead of "to" people. Mitt's positions are conservative, but they are reasonable...and it is interesting that his critics only look at decades old sound bites to criticize him instead of his actual record of achievement. I wonder why that is???
Um, Bill Clinton won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire, though it could be argued that the latter might as well have been a Clinton victory. Still. Nice to see that commitment to truthiness.
Romney is the man, very intelligent. Hope he takes it all the way, and stick it to the Democrats with another 8 years of Republican leadership. I'm confident he won't let the children in Congress play with our money, as he has made it clear he is not afraid to whip out a veto pen. I wish Bush would use his veto pen more!
Using "multiple choice" to describe him is simply a blatant misrepresentation used by rivals and opposition alike.
I am awe-struck at the the depth of knowledge and understanding Alex Gage has about the current, medium and long term political risks, depth of support and other current, medium and long term political pitfalls along with the reasons why Mitt Romney will eventually become victorious at capturing the GOP nomination for president.
Just about every word I agreed with. It is a near-perfect memo and Mr. Gage is worth every penny he is earning, in my opinion.
Well done thou good and faithful sMITTen.
P.S. Although, next time I wouldn't go public with it...
Denny sMITTen