Analyze This
Gordon Gekko once told us, “Money itself isn't lost or made; it's simply transferred from one perception to another.”
We’re noticing that on the two major political futures markets -- the Iowa Electronic Market and Intrade -- investors are readjusting their expectations. Rudy Giuliani’s (R) shares have taken a dive in the last months despite his poll numbers only taking a dip. Meanwhile, investors seem to have bought into the Fred Thompson hype.
It’s not by any means scientific, and markets have been known to suffer from a herd mentality (what’s up pets.com), but money talks:
On InTrade, an exchange based in Dublin, Ireland, 2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI shares closed end of April at $32.00 while 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) shares closed at $15.20. Today, Giuliani’s value has dropped to $25.90/share while Thompson is up to $24.80.
(From Intrade FAQ: “Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring… Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying and selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.”)
Check out the charts after the jump. [PATRICK OTTENHOFF].
Giuliani in May
Thompson in May:
Thompson vs. Giuliani
You forgot to add that shares of John McCain have completely tanked to $17 from $30 in the last few weeks...
I'll take 100 shares of Fred at $80.00 please.
www.fredthompsonnews.com
And Mitt Romney was at 15.5 at the end of April and now he's at 23.
No one will win. It will be a convention ballot.