Insiders Poll: Irrational Exuberance?
The results of National Journal’s new "Congressional Insiders" poll, released 8/3, reveal overwhelmingly positive expectations by Dems that they'll retain control of the House and Senate in the 11/08 election, and notable confidence by GOPers that they'll take back their majorities. In addition, the results offer little encouragement to AG Alberto Gonzalez and the prospect that he'll keep his job.
Close to 90 percent of the Dem Insiders said that there's a low probability of a GOP takeover of either chamber. “What is less than zero?” one Dem replied, when asked the likelihood that GOP will take over the House. “They have no stars and back bench. The talent is with the Dems,” replied another. If anything, Dems were even more optimistic about keeping Senate control. “The seats up are ours. The question is how big a Democratic majority?” said one Dem Insider. Another said that GOPers were “playing defense in too many states.”
GOPers, for their part, were notably optimistic at this early stage of the '08 campaign. Half said that the chance of a GOP takeover of the House was between four and six on a 0-to-10 scale. The remainder divided about evenly between a low and high chance of a House takeover. “Anti-incumbent mood vexes the new majority!” according to a typical GOP reply. Another said that “Democrats had a great opportunity but have largely squandered it.”
GOPers were a bit more cautious about their Senate prospects: 54% said that they had a middling probability of regaining control, and the remaining 46% said their prospects were low. GOP skeptics cited the large number of seats that they have to defend. But another added, “Does it really matter? Whether controlled by Democrats or Republicans, the Senate is consummately incapable of moving forward….on anything.”
The Congressional Insiders also were asked who they expect will be Attorney General on 1/1/08. The replies revealed that 43% of GOPers and 37% of Dems believe that it will continue to be Gonzalez. “Why would the president get rid of his whipping boy?” replied one GOPer. One Democrat added that he hopes that Gonzalez will stay. “He is proof that things can get worse.”
Of the other choices, 26% of GOPers predicted Bush will make a recess appointee before the end of this year, and 23% predicted that he will tap a temporary attorney general from within the DoJ; only 9% predicted that the Senate will confirm a new AG. The results were similar among Democrats: 29% expect a temporary appointee from within DOJ, 24% predict a recess appointee, and 10% said that a successor will be confirmed by the Senate [RICH COHEN].
Sometimes I wonder if our nation will ever wakeup from the nightmare of Bush. I also wonder if anyone realizes just how much they have destroyed the country I love.
Who are those who still support this horrible White House?
For a more accurate prediction of the political future gaze into a highly polished crystal ball. I view this article through the predictable haze of partisan politics.
Here's my non-insider prediction: Democrats will INCREASE their majorities in both the U.S. House & U.S. Senate, and will likely take the Presidency at the same time, assuming they don't make the fatal mistake of nominating Barack Obama. Republicans have simply run out of gas, much as the Democrats did beginning when Reagan defeated Carter (1978?). If "GOP insiders" are "notably optimistic" about their chances, particularly in the Senate, of regaining a majority, their answers must simply be for "public consumption", since I don't think there's a single non-partisan political analyst who would agree with their assessment.