Baracking The Vote

HANOVER, NH -- In a speech to students at Dartmouth College yesterday, Barack Obama's NH dir. told students that young voters could decide which WH Dem carries the Granite State in '08.

"If we can get two to three thousand extra votes from you guys that could be 4 to 5, 6, 7 percent of the vote," Matt Rodriguez said.

He pushed students to register and vote in NH and to encourage their friends and dormmates to do the same. Obama's camp has five dedicated college organizers to get out the vote on campuses across the state. Their efforts appear to be paying off, at least at Dartmouth, where Obama signs and t-shirts are ubiquitous across the picturesque New England campus.

Referencing the "strong support" for Obama on Dartmouth's campus and across the country, Rodriguez told students that Obama had the potential to pull votes from college students that are not going to any of the other candidates.

"If it's a battle between Hillary and Barack, it doesn't take a lot to win. Thirty thousand votes. Think about what a few thousand young people would mean," Rodriguez said.

Both Rodriguez and Jim Demers, a Dem strategist working with the Obama camp, stressed the idea of students being part of a historical sea change in politics should they help elect Obama.

"Young people connect with Barack Obama better than any other candidate," Demers said. "If this guy wins, it would be the first time since the Vietnam War that the youth vote made a difference."

The Obama camp's emphasis on campaigning among college students and young voters has raised eyebrows, especially in IA where the youth vote is not seen as a constituency that can be relied upon to turnout (see Dean, Howard '04). But Dean, now the DNC chair, discussed the potential impact that the 18-to-29 vote could have in this election on Wednesday night.

"The 18 to 29 year old vote increased by 20 percent in the 2004 election," Dean said, adding that '06 participation by this group had increased by 24%.

Eligible voters under 30 actually increased by 9% in '04 election. In the swing states of MN, MI, OH, WI and PA, their participation exceeded 60%, according to the Vanishing Voter Project at the Kennedy School of Gov't.

Demers, when speaking to the students about electability, brought up the potential hurdle Obama could face among the electorate as the first African-American president. He compared the notion that no one would for a Black candidate today to the idea that no one would vote for John F. Kennedy because of his religion.

"Everyone said a Catholic couldn't win the presidency, and Barack Obama as an African American candidate there are those that say he can't win. But the American stepped up and did it."

When asked by Dartmouth student Anna Bufa, 20, about whether Obama could win a general election, Demers echoed the theme that the Obama campaign has tried to stress all week - greater nat'l electability.

"With Hillary Clinton, the biggest concern I have is national polls saying 43 percent of Americans don't want to vote for her," Demers said "My fear is that we have a map that looks like the last two elections, and it will become about a race for a win in one state. That's how we got George W. Bush."

Appearing to channel the recent campaign endorsement given by ex-Dem chair Gordon Fischer , Demers also said Obama would provide coattails for other Dems on the ballot, and referenced the race between NH Sen. John Sununu (R) and Dem Jeanne Shaheen (D) in '08.

Whether the youth vote can actually give Obama an edge in the primaries is up in the air. In Iowa in 2004, there was a four-fold increase in caucus participation by 18 to 29 year olds, but in New Hampshire, by contrast, turnout levels remained the same, according to the Vanishing Voter Project.

The eventual dates of the primary calendar could have a tremendous impact on whether the youth vote could affect the outcomes of the primaries. Should the New Hampshire primary be held before students return to school, students would largely have to vote by absentee ballots. A campaign that relied on students for volunteer support during GOTV could also be affected, if students had to be relied upon to return to the state before classes started. [ASWINI ANBURAJAN].