NH Polls Show McCain Mo'

The three most recent polls out of NH show the once moribund John McCain campaign surging just three days from 1/8 primary. Still, the race remains very close between McCain and Mitt Romney.

In the CNN/WMUR poll (1/4-5), McCain led Mitt Romney by five points, 33% to 27%.
The MSNBC/Mason-Dixon poll (1/2-4) showed McCain up eight points over Romney (32% to 24%). The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby tracking poll (1/2-5) showed McCain and Romney statistically tied with Romney at 32% and McCain at 31%.

In all three polls, independents make up smaller portion of the electorate than they did in 2000 when McCain won the GOP primary, beating then Gov. George W. Bush by 19 points, 49% to 30%.

In 2000, according to exit polling, 41% of those who voted in the GOP primary were independents. McCain carried a whopping 62 percent of those voters. McCain lost the Republican vote to Bush 37% to 42%.

In the most recent CNN/WMUR poll independents made up 37% of the primary electorate. McCain was ahead among those voters, but not by the margins he was in '00. Among independents, McCain was leading Romney by 8-points, 32%. to 24% . Rudy Giuliani was close behind at 20%.

The MSNBC/Mason Dixon polled showed just 21% of likely GOP primary voters were independents. McCain was leading among that group with a whopping 50%. Romney was at 18% and Giuliani at just 2%.

Among Republicans, McCain is statistically tied with Romney in MSNBC/Mason-Dixon poll (28% to 26%), and is leading Romney in CNN/WMUR poll by five-points, 33 percent to 28%. Mike Huckabee was in third place with 14%.

The Reuters/Zogby poll showed just 25% of the GOP electorate as independent. Among those voters, McCain was ahead of Romney 48% to 28%. Among Republicans, Romney was leading 33% to 25%.

Bottom line: for McCain to win NH, his ability to stay competitive among GOP voters will be the key, even if fewer independents vote in the primary than they did in 2000. He won't get as big a win as he did in '00, but he could still eke out a narrow victory.

For head to head match-ups with all of the Republican candidates, click below.

[AMY WALTER]

CNN/WMUR
McCain 33%
Romney 27%
Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 11%
Paul 9%
Thompson 1%
Hunter 1%
Other 2%
Undec. 4%

MSNBC/Mason-Dixon/McClatchy Newspapers
McCain 32%
Romney 24%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 10%
Paul 8%
Thompson 3%
Hunter 1%
Undec. 10%

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
Romney 32%
McCain 31%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 6%
Thompson 3%
Undec. 7%