Some Clues On How HRC Did It
What happened in NH? And how did so many polls get it so wrong?
We’ll be digging into this for the next few days, but for now, exit polls can at least tell us what happened, if not why:
--Women turned out big (they made up 57% of electorate, 3% more than they did in 2004) – and Hillary Clinton won almost half of them.
--While most are pointing to the Portsmouth “tear-up” as the cause for her success, it’s also noticeable that her success seems to have come at the expense of John Edwards. In Iowa, Edwards competed strongly with HRC for the traditional blue-collar, core Democratic voter. In New Hampshire, those voters broke decidedly for her.
--In IA, for example, among voters who said that the economy was their number one issue, Edwards and HRC were tied with 26% each. Barack Obama won these voters with 36%. In New Hampshire, however, HRC carried those voters with 43%, Obama stayed at the same place at 37%, while Edwards dropped to 16%.
--It also seems that Edwards’ populist message had little resonance in the Granite State. Clinton took 41% among the large group of voters who said they were very worried about the economy, Obama came in 5-points behind at 36%. Edwards, meanwhile, took just 17%.
--While HRC split Dem voters with Obama in Iowa, she carried Democrats in New Hampshire by eight points. Independent voters still broke strongly for Obama (+15), but the last pre-primary poll taken by CNN/WMUR/UNH, showed Obama up among independents by 25 points.
[AMY WALTER]
And how did so many polls get it so wrong?
Going into the primary, nearly half the voters (~47%) said they were "undecided." You can't make accurate predictions when that proportion can't tell you who they're in favor of.
Then there are cellphone-only users, who tend not to show up in polls.
I support Barack Obama for his message that seeks to build a voting majority of democrats, independents and republicans who seek to move forward to an America grounded in justice, honor, consultative leadership within our nation and among nations. His background and training in constitutional law will provide the knowledge and judgment to undue the damage to our constitutional system done by the Bush-Cheney administration. His poise and speaking ability are essential to a world needing new and courageous leadership. I am 86 years old and devoted to change as essential to our survival.
Did any of the issue statements posted at hillaryclinton.com have any influence at all?
How about the issues at barackobama.com or johnedwards.com?
Were any voters influenced by any of these web sites?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
i am a 84 year ww2 vet who enjoys your appeances on tv.iam frustrated because i believe ihave a unique way for hilary to stop obana surge .ibelieve she should get committments from vastly expeienced past servantsto seve in her administratoon .examples -bill richardson for v/p or sect of stste,bob ribbn-treasury ,dodd or leahy -atty general,bob reich -labor.obama could never match these choices .am i dreaming?
You are a very intelligent woman, and I think you are sexy in the way you present it. I enjoy watching you on the news hour :)
You are a very intelligent woman, and I think you are sexy in the way you present it. I enjoy watching you on the news hour :)
The ousting of our Ambassador in Venzuella, and we ousting theirs - Gasoline may rise as much as $1 by this weekend. I think this is going to push this topic even further up the ladder of political concerns. {on a personal level. . . I wish the reponders to this site would take the time to spell words better and use basic English punctuation. It is hard to read some of your comments}
Richard Lewis
Central Arkansas