Worst. Idea. Ever.
MANCHESTER -- Hillary Clinton's campaign hasn't confirmed reports that a NH loss would force her to skip SC and/or NV an focus on the 20 states holding primaries on 2/5. But just in case Clinton/Solis/McAuliffe/Penn/Wolfson is checking out "On Call" this p.m., here are a few reasons this idea would destroy any remaining chance she has of defeating Barack Obama.
First, she'd be accused of alienating minority voters. The main reason the DNC voted to move up the votes in SC and NV was to give the two largest minority voting groups, hispanics and African-Americans, a larger voice in the race. Hispanics in NV and black voters in SC. Ignoring these states would easily be read as a decision to ignore those voters, who also happen to live in large numbers in 2/5 states like NY, NJ, IL and CA.
Second, such a move would underscore critics' arguments, unfairly, that she is afraid to compete in red states. Both SC and NV have gone GOP in the past two WH elections.
Third, it would send a message to the political world that Clinton is reeling, both financially and
Fourth, even more comparisons to Howard Dean. After losing his frontrunner mantle following bad losses in IA and NH in '04, Dean ignored other races to focus solely on WI. By the time the WI vote finally rolled around, he had lost key labor support and was virtually broke. He placed third.
Clinton climbed to the top of early-state and nat'l polls in '07 by projecting an image of confidence and claims of a nat'l mandate. At a time when she's struggling to regroup and mount a comeback bid, such a move would contradict both of those things. [JOHN MERCURIO].
one of them happens to be sitting right here. dont wory, hotline. not gonna happen.
And five : Obama wins big tonight (44? 48?), then his excitement rolls over to caucuses in Nevada - now that we understand how demanding caucuses are of voters, doesn't it seem like the excited voters would be with the inspiring candidate with two wins? And then African American voters in SC get a chance to vote for an Obama who has just won three contests?
The front loading of the primaries has greatly enhanced the importance of the early contests. If Clinton (and Guiliani), thinks she (or Giuliani) can bank on Feb. 5th states to resusitate their campaigns....wow, that's a really tall order. The resumes of campaign staff will have long been sent to the Obama (and Huckabee? McCain???) fax machine by the end of January.