It was, in this reporter's opinion, the most interesting moment in today's Clinton campaign phoner with reporters. Responding to the release of HRC's new TX TV ad, which asserts in no subtle terms that only she has the experience to deal with a major world crisis, and, relatedly, to keep your children safe, Slate's John Dickerson asked the obvious question:
"What foreign policy moment would you point to in Hillary's career where she's been tested by crisis?" he said.
Silence on the call. You could've knit a sweater in the time it took the usually verbose team of Mark Penn, Howard Wolfson and Lee Feinstein, Clinton's national security director, to find a cogent answer. And what they came up with was weak -- that she's been endorsed by many high ranking members of the uniformed military.
Barack Obama's campaign is pushing Hillary Clinton anew to release her tax returns and White House schedules. During Tuesday's Dem debate she vowed to make the tax returns public with a caveat: "I will release my tax returns. I have consistently said that. I will do it as others have done it upon becoming the nominee or even earlier, Tim. I have been as open as I can be. The public has 20 years of records for me."
As for those scheds from her time as first lady, well, Bill Clinton is in possession of them. Here's what HRC had to say Tuesday about when he would release them: "I’ve urged that the process be as quick as possible. It is a cumbersome process set up by law."
And the related memo today from Team Obama:
To: Interested Parties
From: Obama Campaign
RE: Why Won’t Hillary Clinton Release Her Tax Returns?
DA: 2/29/08
During a recent MSNBC debate, Senator Clinton was asked if she would release her tax returns. She answered, “Well, I will do it as others have done it, upon becoming the nominee or even earlier.” But the very next day, her campaign backtracked, saying, “As is customary, as the Democratic nominee Sen. Clinton will release her tax information in April at tax time.”
But waiting until April is not customary. In the 2004 Democratic primary, Governor Dean, Rep. Kucinich, Senator Lieberman, and Senator Edwards released their tax returns in April of 2003 – a full year earlier in the primary process. Senator Kerry released his tax returns in December of 2003, and General Clark released his tax returns in January of 2004.
Senator Clinton’s refusal to make this very basic disclosure has raised a number of eyebrows among advocates for increased transparency. As her top Ohio supporter Governor Ted Strickland said in his 2006 campaign, if a candidate is not releasing his or her “tax return, what is he hiding? We should question what’s going on.”
Sen. Jay Rockefeller, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, endorsed Barack Obama today. (Nice counter to HRC's new TX TV spot, don't you think?)
Here's Rockefeller, in a statement released by Obama's campaign:
"Today, I’m proud to lend my support and strong endorsement to Barack Obama and his candidacy for President of the United States. Barack Obama is the most qualified person – Democrat or Republican – to lead our country in the face of enormous challenges – the very real threat of terrorism, economic uncertainty, and instability at home and abroad.
“As Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I am all too aware that the threats we face are unconventional. They are sophisticated. They are constantly changing and adapting. And they are very serious. What matters most in the Oval Office is sound judgment and decisive action. It’s about getting it right on crucial national security questions the first time – and every time.
“The indisputable fact is Barack Obama was right about Iraq when many of us were wrong. It was a tough call and the single greatest national security question, and mistake, of our time. Today, we remain a country at war, and countless mistakes over the last six and a half years have made us less safe. The stakes have never been higher, and that is why we must take a stand.
“I am not just supporting Barack Obama because of his strength on national security. I am equally proud of his commitment to rebuild America – so that we’re a country of equality and prosperity – where no segment of society is left behind. I know Barack Obama will fight and win the battle for health care, good paying jobs, and energy security."
FOX News/Opinion Dynamics released new polls this afternoon of OH Dem LVs and TX Dem LVs. In OH, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 46-38%, with 14% undecided, while in TX Obama leads Clinton 48-45%, with 5% undecided.
In OH, Clinton leads 51-33% among women, while Obama leads 43-41% among men. Clinton also leads white men by 3%, Inds by 4%, union households by 10%, those making less than $50,000/year by 10%, whites by 16% and non-college grads by 24%.
On issues, Obama leads by 12% on Iraq, while Clinton leads by 22% on immigration and 40% on health care. On qualities, Obama leads by 18% on change and 34% on chances to win in Nov., while Clinton leads by 61% on experience.
Meanwhile in TX, Clinton leads 50-43% among women, while Obama leads 52-39% among men. Obama leads white men by 20%, blacks by 78%, Inds by 16% and voters under 45 by 24%. Clinton, however, leads white women by 12%, Hispanics by 38%, non-college grads by 3% and those making less than $50,000/year by 3%.
On issues, Clinton leads by 40% on immigration and 17% on health care, while Obama leads by 35% on Iraq. On qualities, Obama leads by 53% on change, 17% on chances to win in Nov. and 36% on understands average Americans, while Clinton leads by 78% on experience.
Here are the lineups for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programming:
SUNDAY:
Meet the Press hosts a roundtable with Dem strategist James Carville, GOP strategist Mary Matalin, Dem strategist Bob Shrum and GOP strategist Mike Murphy.
Face the Nation hosts Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) and Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Evan Bayh (D-IN).
This Week features a roundtable with New York Times' David Brooks, strategist Matthew Dowd, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, and George Will.
Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Karl Rove.
Late Edition hosts NATO Sec.-Gen. Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, DNC Chair Howard Dean, Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-TX), Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), House Min. Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO), and a roundtable with CNN's John King, CNN's Gloria Borger, and CNN's Candy Crowley.
OTHER WEEKEND SHOWS:
Washington Week features Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes on OH; Politico's Gebe Martinez on TX; and New York Times' John Harwood on the WH campaign (PBS, FRI, 8 pm).
Real Time hosts actor Harry Shearer, diplomat Shashi Tharoor, journalist Christopher Hitchens, and Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) (HBO, FRI, 11 pm).
MSNBC will reair the 2/26 Dem debate throughout the weekend -- Friday from 8-10 pm; Saturday from 8-10 pm; and Sunday from 4-6 pm.
Saturday Night Live has host Ellen Page and musical guest Wilco (NBC, SAT, 11:30 pm).
FNC will air William F. Buckley: Right from the Start (FNC, SAT, 10 pm).
Newsmakers hosts Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX) questioned by Politico's Martin Kady and Roll Call's Jennifer Yachnin (C-SPAN, SUN, 10 am/6 pm).
Chris Matthews Show hosts BBC's Katty Kay, Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Cynthia Tucker, KXAS' Kevin Cokely; and WCMH's Patrick Preston (NBC, check local listings).
60 Minutes features Steve Kroft in OH where he talks to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (SUN, CBS, 7 pm). [EMILY GOODIN]
Responding to Hillary Clinton's new TX TV ad, Barack Obama today claimed that by initially opposing the war, he demonstrated a judgment that would enable him to not only answer phone -- but make the right decisions about the nation's security.
"I stood up and I said the war in Iraq would be unwise," he said during a town hall in Galveston, TX. " It would cost us thousands of lives and billions of dollars. I said it would distract us from the real threat that we face, that we should take the fight to al Qaeda in Afghanstan. That's the judgment that I made on the most important foreign policy decision of our generation, and that's the judgment I intend to show when I answer the phone in the White House as president of the United States of America."
Obama also referred to the HRC spot as a scare tactic, and he pledged not to use terrorism as a political weapon.
"I will never see the threat of terrorism as a way to scare up votes because it's a threat that should rally the country around our common enemies," he said, reports NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan.
And one more David Plouffe note for the day. Given the polls in OH and TX, and the benchmark that Hillary Clinton's camp previously set for itself -- to come within 25 delegates of Barack Obama -- Plouffe said Team HRC is bound for disappointment Tuesday.
"They are going to fail by that measure and fail miserably," he said, noting that Clinton would have to win OH and TX each by 10 points.
Here, by the way, is HRC pol director Guy Cecil during the campaign's Feb. 13 phoner with reporters:
"We expect that we will be in a virtual tie with Sen. Obama with delegates," he said, specifiying that Clinton will be "within 25 delegates by the fourth " of March.
Seems like a near impossibility. First Read's delegate count today is 1,398-1,291, advantage Obama.
David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager, dismissed Hillary Clinton's powerful new TX TV ad, which asks voters whom they want answering the phone at 3 a.m. in the White House when a crisis occurs.
"We don’t think the ad’s going to be effective at all," he said, "because Sen. Clinton has already had her red phone moment. It was the decision about whether to let go Bush invade Iraq. ... This is about what you say when you answer that phone. What kind of judgment you demonstrate."
Plouffe said Clinton failed to read the National Intelligence Estimate, and he said that her 2002 vote for the Iraq war resolution puts her in a category with George W. Bush and John McCain.
In numbers news, meanwhile, Plouffe declined to provide specifics about Obama's February fundraising take. Clinton's team announced yesterday that they raised $35M this month. While there are some reports circulating that the Obama campaign raised as much as $50M, Plouffe would only say today that they've done better than their rival. Plouffe said Obama received money from more new donors in February than January.
"We’ve raised considerably more than Clinton’s total, which is a very impressive total," Plouffe said.
Many worthwhile reads in the issue of National Journal out today. Here are a couple:
Ron Brownstein, Atlantic Media's political director, writes about the evolution of the Democratic Party this primary season into a younger, more affluent and more liberal institution in "A Party Transformed."
Meanwhile, Hotliner Sean J. Miller takes a look at the Dems' impressive grassroots efforts in "Surprisingly Organized."
It's nearly official: "Public financing" could soon mean grassroots tithing -- money lured from the masses into campaign collection plates so candidates can spend without limits. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will opt out of the traditional public financing system that bears his name if Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois wins the Democratic nomination and does so first, McCain campaign policy director Douglas Holtz-Eakin said during an interview at the candidate's whisper-quiet headquarters in Virginia this week.
"Oh, yeah," he replied when asked if McCain would renounce the public funds he once admired (and required), if Obama -- as he keeps hinting -- jettisons the shackles of Federal Election Commission rules. Winning against a mega-fundraiser like Obama is daunting. "Make it no harder; it's hard enough!" said Holtz-Eakin.
McCain's finances, though improving, remain too lean to put Holtz-Eakin and other advisers on the payroll. "I never want to say we're at all like Obama, who is a money machine," he marveled. "It's really quite amazing. And I don't want to pretend he's not a hard opponent. Just look at the turnouts; they're phenomenal."
HRC ad running in TX ... 'It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House, and it's ringing. ... Your vote will decide who answers that call."
This ad blends Rudy G.'s "Fear Factor" spots with John Edwards' caution that the nation must be stronger and more propserous for the next generation ... Effective spot, plays on voters' key looming fear about Barack Obama -- that he doesn't have the experience to do the job.
ABC's McFadden spent the day with Hillary Clinton in OH for a piece on "Nightline":
Asked about her saying she hates being the frontrunner: "Because you're the big target. I'm still being treated like that, in terms of coming after me when this is a close contest."
Asked about looking back: "Not yet. I have to keep looking forward. ... I have just learned that it's really important to keep your concentration where it needs to be. I get up every day and think I think what do I have to try to do to advance my campaign?"
Asked about women who say they feel sorry for her: "I think a lot of women project their own feelings and their lives on to me, and they to see how hard this is. It's hard. It's hard being a woman out there. It is obviously challenging with some of things that are said, that are not even personal to me so much as they are about women. And I think women just sort of shake their heads. My friends do. They say, oh, my gosh, this is so hard. Well, it's supposed to be hard. I'm running for the hardest job in the world. No one has ever done this. No woman has ever won a presidential primary before I won New Hampshire. This is hard. Now every so often, I wish it were more of an even playing field, but I'll play on whatever field is out there."
On Obama: "I think the best description actually is in Barack's own book, the last book he wrote 'Audacity of Hope' where he said that he's a blank screen and people of widening differing views project what they want onto believe on to him. Then he went on to say, I am bound to disappoint some if not all of them. He just hasn't been around long enough. I'm a full-fledged canvas. You know, some people love me, some people a little less, but you know where I stand. You know the fights I've taken on. You know that you can count on me to do what I say I will do."
Asked if she'll know when she should drop out: "I don't think about that. I think about Tuesday" ("Nightline," ABC, 2/28).
Talk about the battle between Barck Obama, Pres. Bush, and John McCain after the jump. [EMILY GOODIN]
Hillary Clinton taped a series of special messages to be broadcast on tonight’s LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN. Check out one of her featured messages ...
NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg's announcement last night that he wouldn't seek the presidency produced this varied react today from Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
"I had the opportunity to have breakfast with Mayor Bloomberg a few months ago, had a wonderful conversation, there are some areas where he and I agreed very strongly, there are some areas where we've got some differences, but I have always been confident in my ability to get votes from independents," Obama said, per NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan. "And, you know, I hope that Mayor Bloomberg will look at my track record of trying to reduce special interest influence in Washington, have common sense energy plans that can put us on a more a stable economic footing and conclude that I'd be in the best position to put forward the kinds of the pragmatic, common sense solutions that he's championed in New York. And I will definitely be reaching out to him."
Clinton called Bloomberg's decision not to run for president a very personal one, reports NBC/NJ's Athena Jones.
"I have the highest regard for Mayor Bloomberg," she said. "I have worked with him on many issues affecting New York and, you know, this is such a personal decision, as I can attest to. There are lots of reasons why people decide either to run or not to run, and I respect his reaching his own decision, and I look forward to continuing to work with him as the mayor for the next couple of years."
And here's a snippet from Bloomberg's op-ed piece in the New York Times today:
"In the weeks and months ahead, I will continue to work to steer the national conversation away from partisanship and toward unity; away from ideology and toward common sense; away from sound bites and toward substance. And while I have always said I am not running for president, the race is too important to sit on the sidelines, and so I have changed my mind in one area. If a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach — and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy — I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House."
Hillary Clinton said she was excited and gratified that her campaign raised $35M in February, its highest monthly total to date, and had attracted some 200,000 new donors, many of them small donors.
"I think it says a lot," she said. "People demonstrate their support for a candidate in a number of ways. Obviously, they come out to events, they make phone calls, they hold signs, they are actively involved in supporting us, but contributions are another way of judging and when people found out that we didn't have the resources to compete, and I did put my own money in, it just set off a chain reaction across the country of hundreds of thousands of people saying 'Wait a minute, we want this campaign to go on.'"
Clinton said her campaign had not paid back the $5 million she had loaned it.
Terry McAuliffe, Hillary Clinton's national chairman, just announced on a phone call with the campaign's finance team (and reporters) that HRC's crew raised $35M in February, more than double its January take. He said 200K new donors gave this month and that their average contribution was about $100.
Overall, McAuliffe said, the campaign has raised in excess of $167M total, $145M of that has been primary money. HRC's loan to the campaign on Feb. 6, he argued, prompted the flood of cash.
"Our Interent exploded, and it has never stopped," he said.
More McAuliffe: "We have the resources to play in the big states coming up TX, OH, RI, VT and states beyond," he said.
He added: "It’s exciting, and we are in this thing for the long haul."
The AP reported this morning that Democratic superdelegate and state Rep. Senfronia Thompson, of Houston, has defected from Hillary Clinton to endorse Barack Obama.
"I'm honored to have earned the support of Representative Thompson and am pleased that she'll play an important role in advancing our grassroots movement for change in Houston and across Texas," Obama said in a statement. "Throughout her three decades in the Legislature, she's been a tireless advocate for working families and when I'm president we'll work together to put the American dream within reach of every child in Texas and across our country."
Ralph Nader announced his pick of Matt Gonzalez, a past member of the San Francisco board of supervisors, as his running mate. If you're thinking -- 'Gonzalez, who?' -- you're probably not alone.
Gonzalez, a native of McAllen, Tx., ran unsuccessfully for mayor of San Fran in 2003, losing to Gavin Newsom. He graduated from Columbia College in 1987 and received his J.D. in 1990 from Stanford Law School, where he was an editor of the Stanford Law Review.
Nader said today that Gonzalez is "committed to his politics with clear eloquence and humane logic." And he mentioned that one reason that he selected Gonzalez is that the pol helped push to raise the minimum wage in SF, which boasts the highest rate in the nation.
Perhaps another reason Nader picked Gonzalez ... No one else would run with him. We're just speculating, of course. No real cause to think that Nader's choice of an nationally unknown city official as his sidekick might reflect a paucity of excitement among progressives about his third consecutive WH bid ...
The duo hold their first rally together this evening at George Washington University.
CANTON, Ohio -- Michelle Obama often refers to what she calls the "fear bomb" that was used against her husband in his Senate race, as rivals questioned whether someone with his name could be elected. Today, she acknowledged that it is happening again in his presidential race, and said that the use of his middle name -- Hussein -- against him is an example of why America can't wait for a leader like him to be elected.
"They threw in the obvious, ultimate fear bomb," Obama said of her husband's '04 Senate race. "We're even hearing [that] now. … 'When all else fails, be afraid of his name, and what that could stand for, because it's different.'" She said rivals use innuendo to play on fears. "Just as they're saying it now," she said.
But, she told about 200 supporters this morning at a restored theater in Canton, Obama won despite that "climate of negativity and doubt" in 2004, and even after standing up against the Iraq war. "We learned number one that when power is threatened by real change they will say anything to stop it," she said. "But we also learned that the American people can handle the truth."
Just this week, the Tennessee Republican Party issued an inflammatory press release accusing "Barack Hussein Obama" of disliking Jews and linking him to Louis Farrakhan. A spokeswoman for John McCain's campaign promptly condemned the TN GOP for its tactics.
Meanwhile, Michelle Obama said this morning that what America needs is a "fundamentally different kind of leadership," one that challenges people to be different, and better, to one another. And that, she said to critics who say it is not his time, cannot wait. "Barack Obama will be the kind of leader we need right now, not in four years or eight years or 12 years," she said. "We can't wait to get this right. We need it to happen today."
Obama said her husband's effort to bring people together is grounded in the lessons he learned growing up. "You don't rip your opponents apart, because you never know when you're going to have to sit right down next to them and figure something out," she said. "That's how he was raised. Imagine a president of the United States who is trying to bring those values to the Oval Office."
James Baker is endorsing John McCain today in Houston, reports NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy. Baker, of course, spoke for George W. Bush during the prolonged 2000 election contest. And he has, as we know, held a number of big deal Washington jobs: chief of staff to President Reagan, as well as his Treasury Sec, chairman of George H.W. Bush's presidential campaign and later his Sec of State. Count Baker's endorsement of McCain as another, obviously at this point perhaps unnecessary, nod from the family Bush.
The talk between John McCain and Barack Obama on Iraq netted the two men some TV coverage last night.
But before we get to that Hillary Clinton sat down with PBS' Woodruff:
Asked if the 2/26 Dem debate will affect the campaign: "One never knows, but I feel very good about it and have had a tremendously positive reaction from people where I've been today, in Cleveland, here in Zanesville."
On NAFTA: "Well, I had my doubts about it way back at the beginning of Bill's term, but I was working on health care. But David Gergen and others have apparently remembered a lot of the meetings we were in where I raised a lot of questions. But it's hard to argue with the economic success overall of the Clinton years. ... Since I've been in the Senate, I have raised a lot of serious questions. And I've said, look, I have a plan to fix it."
More from HRC and other WH '08 talk after the jump. [EMILY GOODIN]
Barack Obama and John McCain traded barbs today about the presence of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
McCain, riffing off of comments that Obama made in last night's Dem debate, said that Obama is mistaken if he believes that the terrorist organization isn't rooted in Iraq. But Obama subsequently denounced (ahem) McCain's remarks, saying that McCain and President Bush are responsible for starting the Iraq war and leaving the region vulnerable to terrorist activity.
"I'm not embarrassed to tell you that I did not watch the Democrat debate last night, but I am told that Senator Obama made the statement that if Al Qaeda came back to Iraq after he withdraws – after the American troops are withdrawn – then he would send military troops back, if Al Qaeda established a military base in Iraq," McCain said while campaigning in Tyler, TX. "I have some news: Al Qaeda is in Iraq. Al Qaeda, it's called Al Qaeda in Iraq, and my friends, if we left they wouldn't be establishing a base, they wouldn't be establishing a base, they'd be taking a country. And I'm not going to allow that to happen my friends. I will not surrender. I will not surrender to Al Qaeda.
Obama, stumping in Columbus, sought to clarify his debate remarks, noting that he would reserve the right to go into Iraq to strike Al Qaeda.
"So you know this is how politics works," Obama said. "McCain thought that he could make a clever point by saying ,'Well, let me give you some news Barack, Al Qaeda is in Iraq,' like I wasn't reading the papers. Like I didn't know what was going on."
Obama continued: "But I have some news for John McCain, and that was that there was no such thing as Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain decided to invade Iraq."
Obama said McCain and Bush -- a pairing the Dem candidate is likely to utter repeatedly over the next eight months, should he win the nom -- took the United States into a war "that should have never been authorized and never been waged."
"So John McCain may like to say he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, but so far all he's done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq that's cost of thousands of lives and billions of dollars," he said.
(JENNIFER SKALKA, NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY and NBC/NJ's ASWINI ANBURAJAN)
Hillary Clinton's camp aims to revisit one not-so-fab moment for Barack Obama during last night's debate -- the revelation that the sub committee he chairs hasn't held any hearings about Afghanistan ... Related memo from HRC's team after the jump.
And courtesy of the Clinton campaign, here's a clip of that moment:
A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out last night shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 48-42% among Dem primary voters, with 5% undecided. Obama's margins appear to be based on large leads among both men and self-described Inds. Obama and Clinton are tied 46-46% among self-described Dems, while Obama leads by 21% among Inds. They are also nearly tied among women (she is up 1%), while he holds a double-digit lead among men.
The survey shows Obama leads 55-37% among voters who have already cast votes in a 2008 Dem primary or caucus. Obama, however, only leads Clinton 51-49% in total popular vote (including MI and FL), meaning either more people have moved into his camp since they cast ballots or voters cannot remember for whom they actually voted.
What's more, given Obama's 6% lead in the full primary poll but his 18% lead in this already-voted subsample, one can extrapolate Obama's numbers are far weaker in the 14 states which have not yet held a Dem primary or caucus. Nevertheless, this anecdotal evidence should not trouble the Obama camp given the more their candidate campaigns in a state, the better he fares.
Also, some good news for the Clinton camp -- more than half of Dem primary voters believe delegates from MI and FL should be allowed to vote at the convention. The poll did not, however, specify how such delegates would or ask how they should be allocated.
On the GOP side, 24% of primary voters say they are unhappy John McCain is their Nom, a figure which jumps to 26% among self-described conservatives and 28% among evangelical/born-again Christians. These groups likely overlap with the 23% of primary voters, 26% of conservatives and 37% of evangelicals who say McCain is not a true conservative. Interestingly enough, only 6%, 6% and 7% of these groups, respectively, say McCain is not a true GOPer.
Finally, 70% of RVs say the U.S. is ready to elect an African-American man president, and 61% say the U.S. is ready to elect a woman president. But surprisingly, more men than women believe the U.S. is ready to elect a woman. The poll shows comparable numbers of Dems are ready for both a woman and African-American man president, while Inds and GOPers appear far more ready for the latter. Less than half of GOPers and six in ten Inds say the U.S. is ready to elect a woman, while 64% of GOPers and more than seven in 10 Inds say the U.S. is ready to elect an African-American man.
Here are Mike Huckabee's comments about the death of William F. Buckley, Jr.:
"Janet and I were sad to hear the news of William F. Buckley's passing. As one of the founders of the modern conservative movement, William Buckley helped turn the intellectual and political tide, shifting America from liberalism to conservatism. Our country, and our world, are better for his 82 years on this earth.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution is reporting that GA Rep. John Lewis, the civil rights leader, has finally decided to shift his allegiance from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama.
"Something's happening in America, something some of us did not see coming," Lewis told the AJC. "Barack Obama has tapped into something that is extraordinary.
Lewis had endorsed Clinton, but when his district voted overwhelmingly in the GA primary for Obama, floated to the New York Times that he might commit his superdelegate vote to Obama. Lewis told the AJC that this decision was enormously difficult.
"I did it because I felt I had to support Mrs. Clinton because of our friendship," Lewis said. "But also I thought she was ready to lead. Lewis had placed a called to Clinton's office Wednesday morning but hadn't heard back from her. He also had a Please-Return-The-Call message of his own from Obama. By midday, he still hadn't returned it.
"It's been a long, hard and difficult struggle to come to where I am now," Lewis said.
Bill Clinton is fond of enumerating the differences of policy opinion between Hillary Clinton and her rival, often listing off their areas of disagreement on health care and trade. But residents of Space City USA were treated to a new "huge difference" during one of the former president's campaign stops on a day-long blitz here today.
"Hillary has always supported the manned space program just as I did when I was president," he told a crowd of over 250 who gathered in a picturesque neighborhood park in a Houston suburb today. "Her opponent says we should downgrade man space travel and upgrade robotic travel."
Conservative commentator William F. Buckley Jr. has died at age 82, according to the AP. His assistant told the AP that Buckley died Wednesday morning at his home in Stamford, Conn. The New York Times is reporting that Buckley suffered from diabetes and emphysema, but that the cause of death is unknown.
Buckley is known for his writings in his magazine, the National Review, which posted this statement:
I’m devastated to report that our dear friend, mentor, leader, and founder William F. Buckley Jr., died this morning in his study in Stamford, Connecticut, writes Kathryn Jean Lopez, NR editor.
He died while at work; if he had been given a choice on how to depart this world, I suspect that would have been exactly it. At home, still devoted to the war of ideas.
As you might expect, we’ll have much more to say here and in NR in the coming days and weeks and months. For now: Thank you, Bill. God bless you, now with your dear Pat. Our deepest condolences to Christopher and the rest of the Buckley family. And our fervent prayer that we continue to do WFB’s life’s work justice.
Statement from House GOP Leader John Boehner after the jump ...
Another day, another debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Here's some of the post-game anaylsis:
MSNBC's Olbermann: "Ninety minutes of them, now about 85 minutes of us" (2/26).
MSNBC's Matthews: "I think we learned tonight why Americans like high-scoring sports. This was a low-scoring game, perhaps like a hockey game. I didn't hear many goals myself. A lot of back and forth about health care, which I find almost absurd given the fact we don't have a national health care plan. ... I learned really nothing new except again Senator Clinton's admission that she would like to have that vote back" (2/26).
NBC's Mitchell: "I actually thought that she presented herself as a fighter, that was what was her mission was tonight. And she kept saying, I'm a fighter, you know, five or six times. That was the phrase she was using. And she came across very credibly, very strongly as a fighter. ... And while the details of health care may seem a little bit onerous to people watching, I think people in Ohio, from all of our polling, really care about it" (MSNBC, 2/26).
More debate reax and John McCain's apology to Obama after the jump. [EMILY GOODIN]
OH Gov. Ted Strickland for HRC: "Hillary Clinton showed Ohioans again tonight why she is uniquely qualified to be president and begin turning our economy around on her first day in office. Hillary is the fighter, the doer and the champion Ohio's working families need. No one is better prepared to deliver quality, affordable health care for every American and lead our country as commander in chief."
David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager: “Tonight, Barack Obama showed why he’s the one candidate who has the judgment to serve as Commander-in-Chief and can draw a clear contrast on foreign policy with John McCain. Barack Obama opposed this war in Iraq from the start, and said that it would distract us from the terrorists in Afghanistan. When he is President, he will end this war, take the fight to al Qaeda, restore respect for America in the world, and bring this country together to deliver the kind of change that will help struggling families afford health care, stay in their homes, and send their children to college.”
Russert asks: Words or votes that you would take back, if you could?
Clinton said, as she has previously, that she would take back her Iraq war vote. "I would not have voted that way again. I would certainly as president never have taken us to war in Iraq."
Obama on Terry Schiavo debate: "It was not something I was comfortable with, but it was not something that I stood on the floor and stopped. ... As a constitutional law professor I knew better. I think that's an example of inaction, and sometimes that can be as costly as action."
Russert asks: What can you tell me about V. Putin's successor?
HRC: He's hand-picked by Putin. "This is a clever but transparent way for Putin to hold on to power. And it raises serious issues about how we're going to deal with Russia going forward."
(She needed prompting from Russert to summon his name, however. And we're guessing Obama might have had a similarly tough time. Let's wrap back to that commander-in-chief question, shall we?)
Obama: "I think Sen. Clinton speaks accurately about it." Hand-picked by Putin.
Both candidates knock Bush for neglecting relationship with Russia.
Russert: Ok, guys, he's 42 yrs old, a former law professor, was Putin's campaign manager.
"I have been very clear in my denunciation of Minister Farrakhan's anti-semitic comments. I think they are indefensible and reprehensible. I did not solicit this support. He expressed pride in an African American, who seems to be bringing the country together. i obviously can't censor him. But it is not support that I sought. And we're not doing anything, I assure you, formally or informally, with Mr. Farrakhan."
On Israel:
"I have been a stalwart friend of Israel's. I think that they are one of our most important allies in the region, and I think that their security is sacrosanct. And that the United States is in a special relationship with them. As is true with my relationship with the Jewish community. And the reason that I have such strong support is because they know not only would I not tolerate anti-semitism in any form but also because of the fact that what I want to do is rebuild what I consider to be a, what I consider to be, a historic relationship between the African American community and the Jewish community."
HRC: "I will release my tax returns. I have consistently said that. I will do it as others have done it upon becoming the nominee or even earlier, Tim. I have been as open as I can be. The public has 20 years of records for me."
Russert presses her to release the tax returns, filed jointly with her husband (who makes a bundle in overseas speaking), by Tuesday: "I can’t get it together by then. But I will certainly work to get it together. I’m a little busy right now. I hardly have time to sleep."
What about those first lady scheds, released by the National Archives a month ago, but not yet made public. They are in Bill Clinton's possession. "I’ve urged that the process be as quick as possible. It is a cumbersome process set up by law."
Obama: "I am not yet the nominee, and what I have said is when I am the nominee, if I am the nominee … then I will sit down with John McCain and make sure that we have a system that is fair for both sides. Because Tim, as you know, there are all sorts of ways to get around the loopholes."
Those watching the debate on local Cleveland TV got treated during the commercial break to a familiar face from debates long ago -- Dennis Kucinich. He's also on the ballot next week, and he's facing a primary challenge. So he is on the air now running ads for his re-election bid.
In fact, Kucinich exited the White House race in part because he was facing a serious primary opponent for the first time. Unlike '04, he was worried about keeping his day job.
Clinton has said on the trail that Obama's foreign policy experience reminds her of George Bush's bona fides circa 2000. The postscript is, well, of course, look where that's gotten us.
Obama counters: "Sen. Clinton equates experience with longevity in Washington."
More: "On the critical issues that actually matter I believe my judgment has been sound."
HRC: "I have put forth my extensive experience in foreign policy." Notes her work helping with peace process in Ireland and her landmark Beijing human rights speech.
She criticizes Obama for giving his 2002 anti war speech and then voting once in the Senate to fund the war. Also notes as she has previously that he would be willing to meet with some of the worst dictators in the world "without preconditions."
"I will have a much better case to make on a range of issues that America must confront on issues moving forward," she said.
But Clinton declines, as she did in last week's CNN debate, to directly answer a question about Obama's readiness to be commander in chief.
Russert asks if Clinton would tell Mexico and Canada that in six months time she plans to withdraw from NAFTA.
"I will say we will opt out of NAFTA unless we renegotiate," Clinton said.
Cinton says that parts of New York state have benefited from NAFTA. "It has worked in some parts of America. It hasn’t worked in Ohio."
Obama: "I will make sure that we renegotiate. I think we should use the hammer of a potential opt-out as leverage to make sure we get labor standards that are enforced."
The economy and jobs, are, of course, the most critical matters on the minds of OH voters.
HRC on health care: "If you have a mandate it has to be enforceable. It would be as though Franklin Roosevelt said, let's make social security voluntary."
When asked about NAFTA, Clinton says she resents the fact that she's had to field questions first over the last several debates. Says she doesn't know if anyone's seen SNL's campaign spoof (skit last weekend about media being in the tank for Obama), but: "Maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow."
Cleveland State University, 20th Dem debate of the 2008 election season, no rules ...
Opening Q charts Hillary Clinton's change of tone over the last few days ...
Clinton: "This is a contested campaign. As I have said many times, I have a great deal of respect for Sen. Obama, but we have differences." Said it's "disturbing" to her that Obama has misrepresented her positions on health care and NAFTA in mailers circulating in Ohio.
But to that end, Brian Williams asks, can she say unequivocally that she knows nothing about the photo of Obama wearing Somali elder garb that was posted on Drudge. "So far as I know it did not (come from the campaign), and I certainly know nothing about it," she said. "We have no evidence where it came from." She said she would ask someone to leave her campaign if it turns out the photo originated from her team.
Response -- Obama said campaigns are rough and tumble but that his campaign hasn't whined about Clinton's mailers or robocalls.
As Hillary Clinton's staffers struggle to halt Barack Obama's stride toward the party's nom, they have wagged fingers at the press for unfairly targeting the New York senator, for being tougher on her than her rival.
But a look back at press coverage of Clinton from as recently as November indicates – even if anecdotally – that she was widely portrayed by the media as the front-runner, the inevitable nominee. It was only when Obama’s fundraising machine kicked into the highest of gears, when Oprah hit the trail, and, most importantly, when voters started to tune in – and head to the polls – that the landscape changed dramatically.
Check out these headlines:
The Seattle Times, Nov. 16: “Clinton throws counterpunch; Democratic debate – Front-runner ready when Edwards, Obama go on attack”
Baltimore Sun, Oct. 21: “Clinton’s Steady March; Going Into Iowa, She’s The One To Beat – If Anyone Can”
“Can anybody stop Hillary Clinton? The former first lady appears to be pulling away from her rivals in the Democratic contest. Many analysts seem to have all but conceded the nomination to her.”
Cleveland Plain Dealer, Oct. 18: “Hillary Clinton In The Catbird’s Seat”
“The latest round of financial filings and polls suggests that Hillary Clinton’s bid to position herself as the all-but-inevitable Democratic presidential nominee is working.”
Chicago Tribune, Oct. 12: “Obama takes aim as Clinton pulls away; Campaigns trade words on Iran vote”
Christian Science Monitor, Oct. 11: “Inevitable Hillary?”
“Clinton is not Dean. Her national campaign machine is massive, her pockets are deeper, and so is her experience on the national scene. Her national appeal among Democrats looks genuinely broad among reliable primary voters: women, seniors, and blue-collar workers.”
Chicago Sun-Times, July 27: “Hillary Thrives On The Campaign Trail”
“The big story line out of the Democratic campaign thus far has got to be how Hillary Clinton keeps improving, maturing and getting more effective as a candidate.”
Meanwhile, do not forget this terrific Clinton line, offered up in response to heightened attacks from her rivals during the Nov. 15 debate in Las Vegas: “People are not attacking me because I’m a woman. They’re attacking me because I’m ahead.”
Her words, not ours.
Meanwhile, USA Today/Gallup tracking polls show that Clinton held a 30-point lead nationally over Obama just three months ago. She peaked at 50% in the survey conducted between Oct. 12 and 14; Obama won just 21%. Even in mid December she was still up, 45% to 27%. Solid leads by anyone’s measure.
And yet, as Clinton and Obama face-off tonight in Cleveland tonight for their last debate before the critical March 4 contests in OH and TX, all eyes are on the former first lady, who is no longer ahead but struggling instead to keep her campaign alive. The latest USA Today/Gallup tracking poll – taken after Obama won 10 straight primary contests – shows her down 12 points.
It’s easy to blame reporters. And certainly should Clinton not find a way to scrap back into the fight, theses will be written, books, too, about the failure of her once-dominant campaign -- and the role of the press, and for that matter gender politics, in her collapse. But it’s wise to remember that from name recognition to cash, Clinton entered this race with every advantage. And for a long time, per the press, she was inevitable.
Check out this clip of Bill Richardson telling CNN's Wolf Blitzer that he's pondering a pre March 4 endorsement ... Long loyal to the Clintons, if Richardson backed HRC would he give her a much-needed positive headline? Could he help Clinton with Latino voters in TX, in particular, where some polls show Barack Obama overtaking her?
"I may make a decision and do an endorsement," Richardson said.
Blitzer: "Within the next few days?"
"Possibly, yes," Richardson responded.
Richardson said he isn't interested in giving hints about his leanings, but then hinted: "I think it's going to be very, very close. I don't think this race is over."
COLUMBUS, OH - Responding to Mike Huckabee's call today for a GOP debate, John McCain left the door open for a face-to-face meeting.
"I did not know that he had sought to do that," McCain said in Cincinnati. "In fact, we've had 16 debates since this campaign began, and I've been engaged in every one of them. So, I would certainly consider that proposal."
Chip Saltzman, Huck's campaign manager, said that the campaign had not officially sent a letter or contacted the McCain campaign seeking a debate, but reiterated the former AZ guv's earlier words that campaign officials had "made it very clear" that they wanted a forum. Saltzman also said there had been plans for a debate, but the television network scheduled to air it backed out.
Greg Oden, the centerpiece of Ohio State University’s 2006-2007 Big Ten champion and national runner-up team, announced today his endorsement of Barack Obama.
The number one overall pick in last year’s NBA draft, Oden is a first-time voter, and he decided to speak out about this election because he believes America is at a critical juncture.
“Like a lot of young people, I’ve been drawn to Senator Obama’s campaign and the potential he has for our country,” Oden said. "Obama gives Americans, especially young voters like me, a sense of hope in politics. He makes us feel like we can come together for the good of our country. Topics like education and healthcare are very important to me, and I agree with Sen. Obama's views on these issues."
Oden will work with the campaign to reach out to young voters in Ohio and states that are still to waiting to have primaries, such as Indiana, where Oden was the high school basketball player of the year, and Oregon, where Oden plays for the Portland Trail Blazers.
“Greg Oden meant a lot to the state of Ohio, and we’re proud to have his endorsement,” Obama Ohio Director Paul Tewes said.
CLEVELAND, OH -- Conn Sen. Chris Dodd today endorsed his onetime rival, Barack Obama, giving the novice Washington lawmaker the stamp of approval of a veteran policy-maker. Dodd is also the first former Democratic presidential hopeful to back another candidate.
"I believe that Barack Obama has the experience, the ability, the vision to lead this country, to make a difference both at home and abroad," said Dodd, who has served in Congress for more than three decades.
Dodd, who joked that he had hoped to be on the receiving end of endorsements, said that he had been moved by the crowds that have come to see Obama and the sentiment that he stirs in young people.
"I think the ability of Barack Obama has brought to this to reach out and attract the kind of response is certainly something none of us have seen in a long time in American politics," Dodd said. "Certainly in the last generation. The kind of response where we saw in this primary the crowds showing up, many of them coming to listen and hear for the first time but walking away convinced they were hearing something different contributed, I think, to the judgment I had today to support this candidacy."
Dodd also argued for a quick resolution to the nominating contest. He said he is worried about the potential for long-term divisiveness within the party, and he noted that, historically, contentious nominating processes have caused the party to lose the general election.
"A cautionary note here, to campaigns and the people around them, be careful this week," he said. "We have good people running. We have remarkable people running in these two candidates. ... I don't want a campaign that is only divisive here, and there is a danger of it becoming that, not because the candidates want it, but too often the advisers, the consultants, others are seeking for that divisiveness."
Dodd said he spoke to Hillary Clinton last night, noting that "these are not easy conversations." He praised Clinton and her work for the country and said that he believed she would have contributions to make for many years to come.
"But it's the hour to come together," he added. "I appeal to Democrats, Independents, and others who will participate in the primary vote here next Tuesday, in Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. This is the moment for Democrats and Independents and others to come togther, to get behind this candidacy."
CLEVELAND - Mike Huckabee said his campaign has been asking John McCain's campaign to debate, and suggested today that questions surrounding McCain's adherence to campaign finance laws raise doubts about his viability.
Speaking at a press conference that drew just the six reporters still traveling with Huckabee - even though the national press corps is in town for the Democratic debate - the candidate said he wants to debate his rival.
"There's a race going on, and I wish Sen. McCain was debating me this weekend," Huckabee said. "I wish we were gonna be in Cleveland tonight on stage or in Dallas or in Houston or San Antonio or Austin or somewhere between now and Tuesday having a debate."
He said Republicans deserve a one-on-one face-off and that he was "disappointed" a forum between the remaining candidates (Ron Paul is still in the GOP race as well) hasn't been planned.
"We've made it very clear that we would love to have, whether it's a debate or a forum or 'Q and A', where both of us are there; I think any type of format would be acceptable to us, and any location would be acceptable to us," he said.
Huckabee said that the race remained open while questions linger about McCain's spending.
"What can John McCain actually spend?" he asked. "And he seems to be almost being bitten by his own campaign finance reform act, and there are a lot of issues to be settled with what happens in his spending limits."
He said McCain may have to "go completely dark between virtually now and the nomination convention."
Huckabee did not hold a public event in Cleveland, but did receive a private tour of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, before traveling to Columbus and Mason for rallies and a fundraiser in Dayton.
Ohio Rep. Rob Portman, the former U.S. trade rep and pension reform guru, endorsed John McCain today.
"I am proud today to announce my support for Senator John McCain to be the next President of the United States," Portman said in a statement released by the campaign. "John McCain is a proven leader with a track record of breaking through partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C. and achieving results in the national interest. He has been an effective champion for fiscal responsibility and pro-growth economic policies. No one is a more committed advocate for our men and women in uniform, and no one understands better the threats America faces. John McCain is the right choice for Ohioans to keep our nation secure and to get our economy back on track."
Portman, like McCain, has a rep for reaching ably across the aisle. And, well, the popular moderate calls Ohio home. The latter should make him an automatic addition to McCain's short list for veep.
But then, of course, here's another likely McCain veep shortlister on MSNBC this a.m. -- in a clip released by the campaign:
Smart new vid from the DNC that pushes theme of last week's NYT story, that John McCain is too cozy with lobbyists. Shows a clip of George W. Bush slamming McCain during the 2000 GOP primary campaign:
"My friend is raising money from people who have business in front of his committee," Bush said. "Nothing illegal about that. But I just want to make sure the facts are laid bare."
Most of the TV talk last night concerned the Hillary Clinton campaign -- with pundits trying to figure out exactly what strategy the senator is employing. There was also plenty of talk on the photo of Barack Obama in native African dress:
NBC's Mitchell: "With Hillary Clinton slipping in those national polls, she is taking a noticeably harder line
against Barack Obama" ("Nightly News," 2/25).
National Journal's Douglass, on HRC: "Clearly, she's listening to the people who said, Look, this is your last stand. You've got to do everything you can to try to reinforce any doubts that are growing among people who still aren't sure they know enough about Obama. So she's decided just to go for it" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 2/25).
CBS' Axelrod: "A senior Clinton aide told me Hillary Clinton doesn't like it at all the way her final warm remarks were seen as a farewell so she is leaving no doubt that she will fight and fight fiercely for the Democratic nomination" ("Evening News," 2/25).
More Clinton talk and the Obama photo after the jump. [EMILY GOODIN]
Hartford Courant is reporting that Sen. and ex-Pres. candidate Chris Dodd will endorse Sen. Barack Obama this morning and campaign with Obama in Ohio.
And here's the RNC's Alex Conant weighing in on the meaning of a Dodd endorsement: “When Americans think of change, how many think of Chris Dodd? Dodd played a key role in combating FISA legislation and it’s no surprise he would now embrace the Senate’s ‘most liberal’ member. This is only news because Dodd is endorsing a candidate for President whose policies he previously labeled as ‘dangerous’."
GALVESTON, TX -- As punches, counterpunches, conference calls, and Drudge warfare reach fever pitch in the final days before March 4th, Michelle Obama said today that her husband is unflappable.
And, she added, the main argument against Barack Obama -- that he doesn't have the experience necessary for the job -- is just "a distortion" anyway.
"He doesn't get rattled," she said of her husband to an audience in a Galveston opera house this afternoon. "When you've been in this thing for so long, and you've had it all thrown at you, you can still manage to duck the mudslinging, fix your tie and look presidential in the midst of it all."
The senator's wife also decried the primary argument against Obama as "a distortion" based more on fear than fact. "The question of experience is a distortion," she said. "It's part of the game of politics to keep you afraid and hesitant, and doubting, and not working towards the change that is staring you in the face."
She added that her husband's eight years as a state senator in Illinois actually demonstrate that he trumps his opponent as far as legislative experience.
"When power is confronted with real change," she warned, "they will say anything to stop it."
CINCINNATI -- In a rare a moment on the campaign trail these days, a voter challenged Barack Obama about how he would bring about the change he's promised.
At a roundtable on pension security, Colleen Munninghoff, 48, told Obama that this is the first time since she turned 18 that she was undecided.
"I understand that the younger kids are getting on the Obama bandwagon and that's great …"
Obama cut her off, saying, "We've actually been doing pretty well among more experienced voters as well."
He launched into a long explanation of how he and Hillary Clinton were not all that different in terms of their policy positions, but he said only he has the ability to build a coalition of Republicans and Independents to get the job done.
And then in a candid moment unlike most on the trail these days as he promises grand change to enthusiastic crowds that number in the thousands, he admitted just how hard it will be to get everything done.
"I'll be honest with you we've dug ourselves into a hole, and it's going to take some time to get out," he said. "The question is are we going to make sure that the price that has to be paid to dig ourselves out of the hole is not borne by you guys at this table."
Munninghoff then asked Obama if she could "hope that any of these policies will be implanted in time to help me."
Obama said that change was at least "two or three years away."
Former Cleveland Mayor Michael R. White writes today in his hometown paper that he's flipping from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama.
A snippet:
Six months ago, I supported Senator Hillary Clinton. My wife JoAnn and I are friends of the Clintons. President Clinton was only the second elected official, after the assassinations of the 1960s, to give me hope again. Not withstanding his personal transgressions, President Clinton loves America and tried to do as much for the same Americans that the Kennedys and Dr. King were concerned about. But, after watching the primary election process by the day and sometimes by the hour, I decided that I cannot cast my vote for Senator Clinton.
On March 4th, I'm voting for Barack Obama because I want real change in our America, and he's made me hopeful that he has the intestinal fortitude to make the change which our country so sorely needs.
As an African-American, I am proud to see Barack Obama make such an extraordinary effort to become the President of the United States. But being Black is not enough for me to vote against my friend. I am voting for Barack because he has rekindled my hope again through his experience, vision and leadership for change in a political system that has gone so awry.
USA Today and Gallup have a new national poll out today that shows Barack Obama up 12 points over Hillary Clinton.
Democratic voters also believe by a three-to-one margin that Obama will be his party's nom.
Meanwhile, the survey shows that John McCain would run ahead of Clinton in a general election, 50% to 46%. He and Obama are effectively tied, 48% to 47%.
Howard Wolfson, in a call with reporters a few minutes ago, denied Hillary Clinton's team had anything to do with the photo up today on Drudge of Barack Obama dressed in the traditional garb of a Somali elder.
“I have not previously seen this photograph," Wolfson said. "I’m not aware that anyone in this campaign circulated it. I don’t imagine that you have any independent reporting to suggest that we did.”
Drudge's piece is headlined: "CLINTON STAFFERS CIRCULATE 'DRESSED' OBAMA."
More: "'Wouldn't we be seeing this on the cover of every magazine if it were HRC?' questioned one campaign staffer, in an email obtained by the DRUDGE REPORT."
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe earlier slammed Clinton's campaign for pushing the photo.
“On the very day that Senator Clinton is giving a speech about restoring respect for America in the world, her campaign has engaged in the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we’ve seen from either party in this election," he said in a statement. "This is part of a disturbing pattern that led her county chairs to resign in Iowa, her campaign chairman to resign in New Hampshire, and it’s exactly the kind of divisive politics that turns away Americans of all parties and diminishes respect for America in the world."
And Clinton campaign chief Maggie Williams subsequently lobbed the matter back in Obama's court, suggesting that his campaign is using the episode to "distract from the serious issues confronting our country today."
"Enough," she said in a statement. "If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely. This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry. We will not be distracted.”
This is Hillary Clinton calling to set the record straight. Senator Obama has sent out attack mailers that distort my record on NAFTA, but I believe Ohio deserves the truth.
NAFTA has hurt Ohio families and I have a plan to fix it. My opponent does not. I’ll appoint a Trade Prosecutor to enforce our trade agreements, and crackdown on China’s unfair trade practices. I'll eliminate tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and invest in creating good jobs right here in Ohio.
Ohio needs solutions, not distortions. With your support on March 4th, we can jumpstart the economy and get Ohio back to work.
This call is paid for by Hillary Clinton for President
PORTSMOUTH, Ohio -- Bill Clinton weighed in for the first time this afternoon on the direct mailers Barack Obama's campaign sent Ohio voters, calling the pieces "pure garbage." Hillary Clinton's campaign has spent the last two days making a fuss about the mailers, which denounce her position on NAFTA and criticize her health care plan.
The former president today sought to counter Obama's assertions that his wife's health care plan mandates coverage.
"It is not true that Hillary's plan forces anybody to buy insurance that they cannot afford," he said. "Nobody will have to pay more than a certain fixed percentage of their income because you are eligible for refundable tax credits to keep your cost down. But everybody does have to be covered or you will never get control of the cost."
He told the audience at Shawnee State University, which included a large bear mascot, that they will "never get a chance again to vote for somebody who can make change in your lives this well." And he highlighted differences in the race, again raising the mailers.
"She voted against Bush's energy subsidy bill, her opponent voted for it," he said. "She is for universal health care coverage, and his plan leaves some out. ... And a lot of the mailings that have been sent out on her about health care and NAFTA are pure garbage, as has been pointed out."
As he continues his tour of southern Ohio, Clinton has been reminding each audience of the stakes. He said today that if HRC wins Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, "I believe she will go on to the convention, be nominated, be the president."
"If you believe the feeling of change is more important than the act of it you have one choice -- an eloquent, intelligent charismatic choice," he said. "But if you believe that the fact of change is more important than the feeling of change. If you believe solutions are what unlocks the future. If you believe that the empowerment of the american people is more important than their momentary incitement you have another choice -- a changemaker, someone who in every time in her life has always made changes for other people."
A new Quinnipiac survey of OH voters shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama, 51% to 40%. Less than two weeks ago, however, a Quinnipiac survey showed Clinton with a 21-point lead.
HRC is up eight points -- 47% to 39% -- in a survey released today by the University of Cincinnati. Though no longer running, John Edwards draws support from 9% of voters. The margin of error is 4.3%
Obama, meanwhile, leads among men, while Clinton has a larger advantage with women. Clinton and Obama are also drawing equal support, 49%, from the 18-29 set. Obama has dominated in most earlier contests among younger voters, with HRC maintaining solid support from voters 65 and older.
The poll shows that the economy and jobs are the overwhelming issues of concern to OH's Dem voters, followed by health care and the Iraq war. The survey was conducted Feb. 21-24.
Ralph Nader announced his WH run on "Meet the Press":
Nader: "Let me put it in context, to make it a little more palatable to people who have closed minds. Twenty-four percent of the American people are satisfied with the state of the country, according to Gallup. That's about the lowest ranking ever. Sixty-one percent think both major parties are failing. And, according to Frank Luntz's poll, a Republican, 80 percent would consider voting for a independent this year. Now, you take that framework of people feeling locked out, shut, shut out, marginalized, disrespected and you go from Iraq to Palestine/Israel, from Enron to Wall Street, from Katrina to the bungling of the Bush administration, to the complicity of the Democrats in not stopping him on the war, stopping him on the tax cuts, getting a decent energy bill through, and you have to ask yourself, as a citizen, should we elaborate the issues that the two are not talking about? ... When you see the paralysis of the government, when you see Washington, D.C. be corporate-occupied territory ... one feels an obligation ... to try to open the doorways. ... Dissent is the mother of ascent. And in that context, I have decided to run for president."
Ralph Nader told NBC's Tim Russert this morning that he will run for president this year as an independent, indicating that both parties are complicit in big business' control over Washington.
"You take that framework of people feeling locked out, shut out, marginalized and disrespected," he said. "You go from Iraq, to Palestine to Israel, from Enron to Wall Street, from Katrina to the bumbling of the Bush administration, to the complicity of the Democrats in not stopping him on the war, stopping him on the tax cuts."
"In that context, I have decided to run for president," he said.
Nader, who at 73 would be the oldest person ever elected president, did not bite when Russert pressed him to respond to a widespread belief within the Democratic Party that he siphoned critical votes from Al Gore in 2000. Nader pointed instead to then FL Secretary of State Katherine Harris and Jeb Bush and the Supreme Court of the United States.
Barack Obama told reporters this morning that he has heard from Nader over the course of the campaign and that he has the right to run, reports NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan: But Obama said that Nader believes if you're not totally on board with his political agenda that "you must be lacking in some way." He said Nader has "a pretty high opinion of his own work."
"I think anybody has the right to vote for president if they file sufficent papers," Obama said. "And I think the job of the Democratic Party is to be so compelling that a few percentage of the vote going to another candidate's not going to make any difference."
More: "He had called me and I think reached out to my campaign - my sense is that Mr. Nader is somebody who if you're - don't listen and adopt all of his policies, thinks you're not substantive. He seems to have a pretty high opinion of his own work. Now, and by the way, I have to say that historically, he is a singular figure in American politics and has done as much as just about anybody on behalf of consumers, so in many ways, he is a heroic figure and I don't mean to diminish him. But I do think there's a sense now that if somebody's not hewn to the Ralph Nader agenda then you - you must be lacking in some way. "
NEW YORK - Mike Huckabee showed once again that he gets the joke, appearing on NBC's "Saturday Night Live" to explain why he hasn't conceded the Republican nomination to John McCain and outstaying his welcome.
Huckabee appeared on the "Weekend Update" segment of the show, which made its return after a prolonged absence because of the strike by the Writers Guild of America. He chatted with anchor Seth Myers about the "mathematical impossibility" that he could win.
"The media loves to throw around the term 'mathematical impossibility,' but no one can ever explain what that means to me," he said, eliciting an explanation from Myers that even if Huckabee won every remaining delegate, he would be 200 short.
"Wow," Huckabee said. "That was an excellent explanation, but I'm afraid that you overlooked the all-important superdelegates, don't forget about them," he said. Superdelegates are only in the Democratic primaries, Myers reminded him.
"Uh oh, that's not good news," Huckabee said. "You know Seth, I was counting on those superdelegates."
But the real joke came when Huckabee's segment drew to a close. "Mike Huckabee does not overstay his welcome," he said, referring to his candidacy. "When it's time to go, I'll know. And I'll exit out with class and grace." But after two rounds of applause, he was still there, smiling and waving. It took a gentle reminder from Myers to get him off stage.
Huckabee has appeared on The Colbert Report and other political satire shows in recent weeks, finding humor in his continued participation in the Republican race. He joins a long list of politicians who have appeared on "SNL," including McCain and former Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani, both of whom were guest hosts.
Huckabee arrived in New York Saturday and taped "Geraldo At Large" before arriving at NBC Studios in the evening for rehearsals, accompanied by his wife, Janet and daughter, Sarah.
As tradition dictates, Huckabee returned at the end of the show, to be thanked by guest host Tina Fey. After the show ended, he told NBC/NJ that the experience was "a blast."
"It was one of the coolest things I've ever got to do," he said.
Wow, Thursday night feels so long ago. What happened to the Hillary Clinton who said she was "honored" to share the stage with rival Barack Obama during CNN's Austin debate? She won such props for her closing remarks, which were regaled by reporters as classy and genuine. The Clinton campaign thought their candidate had so scored -- in her tone and message -- that they promptly sent the You Tube clip to reporters.
And now, just 48 hours later, she's ripping into Obama, criticizing him for sending misleading mailers to Ohio residents. She said today that he should be ashamed of himself. Well, if positive Hillary won plaudits, why change the game plan? We watched Thursday night's face-off for a sign of a recast message, a new HRC plea. And we didn't see it. But what we saw was Clinton do something she hasn't done enough -- she told voters that her hunger for the presidency is about serving people and that she will be fine, no matter what happens.
Making hay over mailers and lobbing comparisons of Obama to President Bush won't give voters a reason to give the candidate another look. It might only serve to remind them that Clinton's warm wishes to her rival Thursday and her plainly expressed hope for America's future, amounted to the very thing she has dismissed about her rival's pitch. They were just words.
Barack Obama vigorously defended two mailers his campaign dropped in Ohio that led rival Hillary Clinton to say today he should be ashamed of himself.
Noting that the mailers -- one on NAFTA and the other on health care -- had been out for weeks, Obama suggested during a press availability in Columbus that Clinton's fiery remarks smacked of political gamesmanship.
"I am puzzled by the sudden change in tone unless these were just brought to her attention it makes me think that there's something tactical about her getting so exercised this morning," he told reporters.
He added: "And unlike some of the attacks that have been leveled about me that have been debunked by news organizations, these are accurate. Sen. Clinton as part of the Clinton administration supported NAFTTA. In her book she called it one of the administration's successes. And we point that out in a state that has been devastated by trade and has been deeply concerned about the position of candidates on trade."
When questioned why the NAFTA mailer inaccurately indicates that Clinton said the agreement was a "boon" to the economy, a comment that was later corrected by a local paper, Obama said: "Well that's fair enough. It is true that the mailer went out before the newspaper made the correction, right? That's my understanding, and I will need to check with staff on that. The characterization that she supports NAFTA I think is indisputable."
Obama was also pressed on his healthcare mailer, which when it appeared weeks earlier had been compared to the Harry and Louise ads that scuttled Clinton's attempt to pass universal healthcare in 1993. He said nothing was "factually inaccurate" about the mailer.
"I have seen the mailer, and I completely dispute that characterization," Obama said. "There are many people who support Sen. Clinton who support healthcare mandates, who didn't like the characterization of it, but there wasn't anything inaccurate in what was said."
For those who might not have already seen it, The New York Times' public editor, Clark Hoyt, criticizes the paper's leadership today for running this week's piece on John McCain without uncovering "independent proof" of an affair.
Hoyt also writes that the article "had repercussions for both McCain and The Times," adding that, "The newspaper found itself in the uncomfortable position of being the story as much as publishing the story, in large part because, although it raised one of the most toxic subjects in politics — sex — it offered readers no proof that McCain and (Vicki) Iseman had a romance."
He concludes: "If you cannot provide readers with some independent evidence, I think it is wrong to report the suppositions or concerns of anonymous aides about whether the boss is getting into the wrong bed."
Hillary Clinton unfurled a series of attacks against her Democratic rival today at one point saying he should be ashamed of himself for circulating what she said were misleading mailers about her position on NAFTA. She also compared Barack Obama to George W. Bush.
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports that Clinton, during a Cincinnati town hall this morning, cautioned that change for the sake of it is not necessarily a good thing.
"He promised change as a compassionate conservative," Clinton said, referencing Bush, "and the American people got shafted."
The line brought the hundreds at Cincinnati State College to their feet. "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me," she continued.
Obama's campaign responded quickly, sending reporters a December quote from Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson, deriding any move by Democrats to compare their party rivals to the president.
"If you want to talk about tactical political maneuvering, it's about one Democrat comparing another Democrat to George Bush," Wolfson told the AP. "That's the worst kind of tactical political maneuvering."
Clinton was even more forceful in a press conference with reporters, railing against the Obama campaign's latest NAFTA mailer, which reads: "Hillary Clinton believed NAFTA was a 'boon' to our economy; Bad trade deals like NAFTA hit Ohio harder than most states. Only Barack Obama consistently opposed NAFTA."
"This mailing about NAFTA, saying I believed NAFTA was a quote "boon," quotes a newspaper that had corrected the record," Clinton said. "We have pointed it out, the newspaper pointed it out. Time and time again, you hear one thing in speeches and then you see a campaign that has the worst kind of tactics, reminiscent of the same sort of Republican attacks on Democrats."
And then this smack: "So shame on you Barack Obama. It is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages in public, that's what I expect from you. Meet me in Ohio, and lets have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign."
Bill Burton, an Obama spokesman, defended the mailer in a statement, saying it is "completely accurate."
“Unlike the discredited attacks from Hillary Clinton’s negative campaign that have been rejected in South Carolina, Wisconsin, and across America," he added. "We look forward to having a debate this Tuesday on the facts, and the facts are that Senator Clinton was a supporter of NAFTA and the China permanent trade treaties until this campaign began. And she herself has said that under the Clinton health care plan, she would consider 'going after the wages' of Americans who don't purchase health insurance, whether they can afford it or not."
(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI, JENNIFER SKALKA and NBC/NJ's ASWINI ANBURAJAN)
SAN ANTONIO, TX -- It was clear even before Chelsea Clinton took the stage that it might be a tough crowd.
Speaking at an outdoor question-and-answer session on the campus of San Antonio College today, Clinton faced an anti-abortion heckler, rowdy Barack Obama supporters and a tough question about one of her mother's most controversial Senate votes.
As supporters and curious observers gathered before Chelsea's address, chants of "Vote for Obama!" were audible, and a man sporting anti-abortion signage circled the crowd. Almost as soon as she took the microphone, the former first daughter glanced back at the loud Obama supporters with a nervous smile and said: "I'd love to have a conversation. And if it's interrupted, I'd like to keep having a conversation."
And the interruptions came. The first from the pro-life advocate, who carried a sign urging Democrats to end abortion. His repeated comments forced a visibly exasperated Clinton to reiterate her mother's pledge to make abortions "safe, legal, and rare." The protestor's comments were, in turn, interrupted by the fiesty Helen Gonzales, a local Latina activist who - gesticulating wildly - delivered a passionate defense of abortion rights and encouraged Chelsea to take the man's question in order to silence further interruptions.
Perhaps more interesting, though, was questioning from Dale Curtis, a sophomore at San Antonio College who objected to Hillary Clinton's vote to classify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. "I'm proud that she showed up to vote on that," she shot back, an obvious reference to Obama's absence from Capitol Hill the day the legislation was considered. "I'm proud that she stands up and takes a stand on tough issues." She went on to add that her mother's vote was based on an assessment of the organization's threats to American security, with help from "her advisors."
Curtis, who carried a loudspeaker to ensure that his shouted question was heard and answered, told NBC/NJ after the rally that he is not a supporter of any candidate but that he believes Hillary Clinton's vote could be used to justify a hawkish stance towards Iran.
Despite the day's boisterousness - which at times made Chelsea Clinton visibly uncomfortable despite fairly cool-headed responses - there was one solemn moment that went uninterrupted. At the beginning of her remarks, the former first daughter asked attendees to participate in a moment of silence for the motorcycle policeman killed in an accident this morning as he escorted her mother's motorcade in Dallas.
COLORADO SPRINGS, CO - In town to give a paid speech, Mike Huckabee stopped by the Focus on the Family campus Friday for what he described as an "off-the-record and confidential" meeting with Christian leader James Dobson.
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Huckabee would not detail the talk, other than to say it was "excellent" and more personal than political. "We have a relationship that dates back on a personal level for 14 years," he said.
Dobson, who has endorsed Huckabee, did not join the presidential candidate at the media availability. And Huckabee said it was unlikely Dobson would campaign for him, given his busy schedule.
Huckabee also disputed suggestions that the second paid address in a week was a sign that he was neglecting the campaign trail. He said he is holding numerous events in March 4 primary states of Ohio and Texas.
Asked about his scheduled appearance on "Saturday Night Live" tomorrow, Huck suggested Brad Pitt could do a good 'Mike Huckabee,' adding that people at airports are always asking if he's the globetrotting actor/activist.
Hotline's Amy Walter makes her HBO debut this evening on Real Time With Bill Maher. She'll be joined on the panel by Rep. Jack Kingston(R-GA), author David Frum, and, via satellite, Tom Brokaw. Real Time correspondent Matt Taibbi will also make an appearance. 11 p.m.
Looks like there might be a special election in AZ-01 afterall. Calling the charges in Rep. Rick Renzi’s (R-AZ) indictment “completely unacceptable for a Member of Congress,” House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH) urged Renzi this p.m. to “seriously consider whether he can continue to effectively represent his constituents under these circumstances.” Boehner, in a statement: “I expect to meet with Rep. Renzi at the earliest possible opportunity to discuss this situation and the best option for his constituents, our Conference, and the American people.”
And the indictment’s fallout has hit the WH trail. NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports that John McCain said Renzi “would probably step down” as co-chair of his AZ campaign. McCain was unaware of the Renzi indictment until he was asked about it after an Indy town hall this a.m., at which point he said that you always think about the family in these circumstances and he would look into Renzi's role in his campaign.
WI Sen. Russ Feingold told The (Madison) Capital Times today that he voted for Barack Obama in this week's Badger State primary. Feingold also told the paper's editorial board that he would likely give his vote as a superdelegate to the IL senator at this summer's Democratic convention.
Feingold, per The Capital Times: "I really do think that at the gut level, this is a chance to do something special" for the nation, Feingold said, adding that electing Obama represents "an enormous historical opportunity for America and for our relationship with the world."
National Journal Contributing Editor Linda Douglass today interviewed Charlie Black, a top adviser to John McCain, about the New York Times report asserting that the senator had an inappropriate relationship with a female lobbyist. Read the full transcript here, and here's a snippet:
Linda Douglass: So the two main charges in this story -- that he had an inappropriate relationship with this woman and that that inappropriate relationship allowed her clients to get special access to McCain -- those are both untrue?
Charlie Black: They are both untrue. They are completely phony charges. As he said yesterday, he knows her as he knows many lobbyists and representatives of different organizations in Washington. He considers her a friend. Nobody ever suggested anything inappropriate until the New York Times did. And most importantly, John McCain does favors for no one. He's got a lot of friends that he has known for many, many years who lobby. And I guarantee you, nobody gets special treatment or favors. On these kind of issues, John McCain listens to both sides, he'll meet with people on both sides and then he'll make a decision on the merits -- what he sees as best for the country. There are numerous examples of when he has made decisions that went against the interests of his home state or of his own political career. So both are false and certainly nobody has come forward yet and demonstrated where he did a favor for anyone.
In the ABC News/Washington Postpoll of TX Dem LVs released 2/21, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 48-47%. Despite this narrow edge, Clinton holds a commanding lead on the issues most important to voters. Why the discrepancy?
On health care, which one-third of voters say is the single most important issue to their Presidential primary choice, Clinton leads Obama by 17%. And on the economy, which 22% say is most important, Clinton leads by 13%. Clinton also leads Obama on immigration by 2%, which placed fourth in importance with 4%, but Obama leads by 1% on Iraq, which 14% chose as most important.
Meanwhile, a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll of national RVs released 2/21 shows 72% of Dems based their primary choice on a candidate's positions on issues, while 13% selected based on his/her personal qualities. The same proportion said they based their choice on both issues and qualities.
Could TX Dems be that different from Dems nationally? Or is it more likely that people feel it's more acceptable to say they vote based on policy? Or are they perhaps out of touch with their own motivations? Something does not appear to add up ...
Here's what's on the Sunday talk shows and other shows:
SUNDAY SHOWS:
Meet the Press hosts Ralph Nader and a roundtable with New York Times' David Brooks, historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, NPR's Michele Norris, and NBC's Chuck Todd.
Face the Nation hosts Govs. Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) and Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) and McCain adviser Charlie Black.
This Week hosts Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) and a roundtable with Peggy Noonan, Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, Cokie Roberts, and George Will.
Fox News Sunday hosts McCain campaign manager Rick Davis and Govs. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Rick Sanford (R-SC), Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Jon Corzine (D-NJ).
Late Edition hosts McCain atty Bob Bennett, Govs. Ed Rendell (D-PA) and Kathleen Sibelius (D-KS), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Pawlenty, and a roundtable with CNN's Bill Schneider and Hotline's Amy Walter.
OTHER WEEKEND SHOWS:
Washington Week hosts Washington Post's Jeffrey Birnbaum on the McCain story; Time's Karen Tumulty and New York Times' Jeff Zeleny on the WH campaign; and NPR's Tom Gjelten on Fidel Castro's decision to step down (PBS, FRI, 8 pm).
Political Capital hosts Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) (Bloomberg, FRI, 8:30 pm).
Real Time hosts Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), author David Frum, Hotline's Amy Walter and NBC's Tom Brokaw (HBO, FRI, 11 pm).
This Week In Politics features CNN's Candy Crowley, The Hill's A.B. Stoddard, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez, CNN's Dana Bash, CNN's Ali Velshi, CNN's Juan Carlos Lopez, CNN's Susan Candiotti, and CNN's Bill Schneider (CNN, SAT at 6 pm/SUN at 1 pm).
SNL returns with host Tina Fey and musical guest Carrie Underwood (NBC, SAT, 11:30 pm).
Chris Matthews Show hosts HD Net's Dan Rather, CNN's Gloria Borger, Newsweek's Howard Fineman and NBC's Norah O'Donnell (NBC, check local listings).
60 Minutes examines the charges against ex-Gov. Don Siegelman (D-AL) (CBS, SUN, 7 pm).
Q ∓ A: Brian Lamb interviews USA Today's Ken Dilanian about his special report entitled "Lobbyists Find More Ways to Bond with Lawmakers" (C-SPAN, SUN, 8/11pm).
80th Annual Academy Awards (ABC, SUN, 8:30 pm). [EMILY GOODIN]
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – After a tumultuous day of media coverage, John McCain held a town hall here this morning and refused to answer any questions about the New York Times story alleging that his relationship with a female lobbyist prompted special favors for her firm.
"I don't have any more comment about this issue," McCain said. "I had a press conference yesterday morning, and I answered every question. I'm moving on… I addressed the issue. I addressed every question that was addressed to me, and I do not intend to discuss it further."
McCain added that his campaign will no longer be using strong language against the Times and in case anyone misunderstood, McCain continued, "Obviously, the fact is, I won't discuss it anymore."
But McCain did answer a follow-up question about the apparent conflict between his anti-special interest rhetoric and the large role of lobbyists in his campaign.
CLEVELAND, OH – Sonny Nardi, president of Teamsters’ Local 416, today endorsed Barack Obama, citing his 20-year record of standing up to special interests and fighting for economic fairness.
“Barack Obama began his career in public service helping to restore opportunity to a community that was devastated by a steel plant closing, and he has been fighting for economic fairness ever since,” said Nardi. “The American Dream is getting out of reach for too many working families in Ohio, and we need a President who has stood up to special interests and fought for the middle class throughout their career. Barack Obama believes that unfair trade agreements like NAFTA were the wrong policies for American workers, and he has proposed the Patriot Employers Act which would end tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs and encourage corporations to create good-paying jobs here in Ohio. He passed legislation that reduced the grip of corporate lobbyists over the legislative process, expanded health care coverage to 150,000 thousand Illinois residents, and opposed the bankruptcy bill which has made it harder for many Ohioans to climb their way out of debt.”
This a.m., the AP reported that Rep. Rick Renzi (R) was indicted for “extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other charges” related to a land deal in AZ. The 26-page indictment “accuses” Renzi and two ex-business partners of “conspiring to promote the sale of land that buyers could swap for property owned” by the fed. gov’t.
Renzi had already announced his retirement, and the race to replace him has already heated up. But does an indictment bring another special election? Look for more in today’s HRH. [TIM SAHD]
A recent New York Times article examined a number of decisions by Senator John McCain that raised questions about his judgment over potential conflicts of interest. The article included reporting on Mr. McCain’s relationship with a female lobbyist whose clients often had business before the Senate committee led by Mr. McCain. Since publication of the article, The Times has received more than 2,000 comments, many of them criticizing the handling of the article. Editors and reporters who worked on the article will be answering questions on Friday. Please send yours to askthetimes@nytimes.com.
SAN ANTONIO, TX – Bill Clinton is fond of saying that he doesn't give "whoop-de-doo" speeches, preferring to focus on lengthy policy outlines.
Late last night, he gave a whoop-de-doo speech.
"This is not a night for issues stuff," he admitted during a boisterous and picturesque outdoor rally attended by over 1,500 in San Antonio.
But it was a night for copious praise for his wife's performance in last night's debate. "I thought it was obvious that I was ready to be president and lead tomorrow," said the former president when he appeared after tonight's debate in quaint Sunset Station. Later he said that he "loved it" when his wife lauded Obama during the debate and called for national unity.
But the mushiest line came when the press corps got a rare within-earshot opportunity to lob a softball his way. Asked what his favorite part of the debate was, he touched his heart affectionately and said "Oh, her closing. That's my girl."
Two big news stories dominated the media coverage last -- the Dem debate on CNN and the continued fallout from the New York Times' story on John McCain:
Beginning with reactions to the debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:
CNN's Crowley: "I thought, in fact, Barack Obama probably gave us his best performance tonight. That format seems to suit him when they're sitting down. But she as always was great. What effect will this all have? If what she wanted to do was trip him up tonight, didn't seem like he did it. Again, though, a very strong performance I thought from both of them" (2/21).
Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "I thought it was a very even performance by both of them. What was interesting about Barack Obama when you go back to the first debate in this series, in New Hampshire, she just clobbered him. He was very tentative. And how much he's changed and improved over time. He's confident tonight, self effacing. I thought he was very, very effective" (CNN, 2/21).
Dem strategist Donna Brazile: "While I didn't hear a lot of fireworks, what I did see tonight was these two candidates reaching out to the people that they've already reached. But they didn't reach into each other's camp and pull anyone toward them" (CNN, 2/21).
More react after the jump. Also, Clinton also made the morning show rounds this a.m. Details on that will be in today's Hotline. [EMILY GOODIN]
Clinton Tonight: “You know, whatever happens, we're going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people. And that's what this election should be about.” [Democratic Debate, 2/21/07]
John Edwards: “What's not at stake are any of us. All of us are going to be just fine no matter what happens in this election. But what's at stake is whether America is going to be fine.” [Democratic Debate, 12/13/07]
John Edwards: “I want to say this to everyone: with Elizabeth, with my family, with my friends, with all of you and all of your support, this son of a millworker's gonna be just fine. Our job now is to make certain that America will be fine.” [Edwards Speech, 1/30/08; http://www.johnedwards.com/news/press-releases/20080130/]
And from Team Clinton, the aforementioned "best moment":
Both were poised and largely respectful of each other. Their differences were minor -- on the outreach appropriate to Raul Castro and Cuba, and on the differences in their health care plans, a regular topic during these debates and one that tonight drew a particular passion from a sometimes chilly Hillary Clinton.
Call it a draw. But a draw means the night ultimately belongs to Barack Obama.
With polls tightening in TX and OH, HRC needed to show something new, to illustrate a deeper connection with voters or offer a more potent argument for why Obama isn't ready to be the leader of the free world. When she used her last answer to a question about when she's been personally challenged to instead tell a poignant story about the soldiers and families who really have it tough, she shined. But Clinton showed a glimpse of a candidate perhaps coming to terms with her destiny in this contest. She is blessed, she said, and will be fine, no matter what.
Obama, meanwhile, gave a solid performance. He pushed back on Clinton's campaign trail charges that he is all froth and bubbles.
"The implication is that the people who have been voting for me or have been involved in my campaign are somehow delusional," he said. Are newspaper board members, across TX and the country, who have endorsed him and blessed his candidacy in glowing prose nuts, too? What about the millions of voters who turn into the debates? "The thinking is that somehow they're being duped," he said. Enough of that talk. It's time, he said, to "bring the country together" and "to stop the endless bickering."
This was not a momentum shifter event. And in a sense, these debates no longer further the dialogue. The candidates have made their cases. Xerox those ballots, TX and OH. It's time to vote.
"Whatever happens, we're going to be fine. We have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people. And that's what this election should be about." -- Hillary Clinton
Barack Obama was just asked about his habit of borrowing from other people’s speeches. It looks like he did it again tonight:
Tonight, Sen. Obama said: “In Youngstown, Ohio, I talked to workers who have seen their plants shipped overseas due to consequences of poor deals it's like NAFTA that have literally seen equipment unbolted from the floors of factories and shipped to China.” [CNN Univision Debate, 2/21/08]
John Kerry in 2004: “What does it mean in America today when Dave McCune, a steel worker I met in Canton, Ohio, saw his job sent overseas and the equipment in his factory literally unbolted, crated up, and shipped thousands of miles away along with that job?” [Kerry Remarks, Democratic Convention, 7/29/04]
Jorge Ramos asks HRC if Obama isn't ready to be commander-in-chief.
HRC doesn't answer. Instead, she says she served on Senate Armed Services Cmte. Just this week ... Elections in Pakistan. Leadership change in Cuba. Kosovo independence. Embassy set on fire in Serbia. "I believe I am prepared and ready on Day One" to lead, she said.
Obama
"I wouldn't be running if I didn't think I was prepared to be commander in chief. My number one job as president would be to keep the American people safe."
John King asks about HRC's talk on the stump of Obama's substanceless platform. This was HRC's opening ... And this is what she came up with:
"Sen. Obama and I have a lot in common. We both care passionately about our country. We are devoted to public service. We care deeply about the future. ... But there are differences between us."
"I do offer solutions, that's what I believe in and what I have done."
This debate is sparkfree. And that's bad news for Hillary Clinton.
Fair or not, the onus is on her to shake things up. She's not doing it. She's not making the case for her over him, for her experience over his. She needed to change the tone, the subject matter, the dynamic.
Otherwise, Barack Obama wins the night -- and the momentum in his direction continues.
HRC: English should remain common unifying language. Does not believe it should be official language. But English is "an important part of the American experience."
Obama: Everyone should learn English. "Every student should be learning a second language."
Clinton on immigration: Path to legalization to bring immigrants "out of the shadows" -- "I would introduce that in the first 100 days of my presidency."
Obama: "Comprehensive immigration reform is something that I've worked on extensively." Stronger border security, cracking down on employers taking advantage of undocumented workers, improve relationship with Mexico "so that their economy is producing jobs on that side of the border." Bush "dropped the ball" in fostering economic relationship with Mexico.
Border fence? Will you commit to finishing construction?
HRC, you voted for it, said CNN's John King. Smart policy?
"I think both Sen. Obama and I voted for that as part of the immigration debate," Clinton responded. But she points finger at Bush administration for not implementing it properly. Deploy more technology and personnel instead of the physical barrier.
(So, wait, she regrets the vote now?)
Obama -- "This is an area where Sen. Clinton and I almost entirely agree." Will reverse that policy. There may be areas where it makes sense to have some fencing.
Hillary Clinton salutes Barbara Jordan and fmr TX guv Ann Richards. Touts 350k TX kids who she said get health care every month because "I helped to start the Children's Health Insurance Program. ... I offer a lifetime of experience and proven results."
"It's now up to the people of TX, OH and the other states ahead," she added.
Barack Obama ... "We are at a defining moment in our history, our nation is at war and our economy is increasingly in shambles." Families, he said, are bearing the brunt of that economy. He says he met a couple whose mortgage has doubled. Others working the night shift. In Youngstown, OH, Obama said, people have seen their jobs shipped overseas "as a consequence of NAFTA."
"Washington has become a place where good ideas go to die," he added.
So HRC mentioned pols, but Obama mentioned ... real people. Score one for the IL senator.
Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ 03) just couldn't say goodbye.
After announcing 2/11 that he wouldn't run for re-election in '08, Shadegg announced this p.m. that he'd reverse course and will run again. He pointed to letters that he received that urged him to run again as the reason he changed his mind. One was signed by 146 GOP Reps., and another was signed by 33 Conservative org leaders.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released tonight shows tight races in Hillary Clinton's must-win states, TX and OH. With less than two weeks until voters go to the polls, the survey finds Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat in the Lone Star State, Clinton is at 48%, compared with Obama's 47%. In Ohio, HRC leads 50% to 43%.
And talk about fluid, the poll indicates that a quarter of voters in TX and a third in Ohio say they could change their minds or are undecided.
In TX, meanwhile, the numbers indicate that HRC is being kept competitive by support from Hispanics.
Howard Dean, in an interview with National Journal Contributing Editor Linda Douglass that will air tomorrow, said that John McCain is part of a "culture of corruption." The DNC chairman said McCain, despite his reputation as a maverick, has long been cozy with lobbyists.
A snippet:
Dean: I have no idea whether the affair story is true or not, and I don't care. What I do care about is John McCain -- and this has been well-documented -- is talking all the time about being a reformer and a maverick, and in fact, he has taken thousands of dollars from corporations, ridden on their corporate jets, and then turned around and tried to do favors for them and get projects approved. He has tons of lobbyists on his staff. This is a guy who is very close to the lobbyist community, a guy who has been documented again and again by taking contributions and then doing favors for it. This is not a guy who is a reformer. This is a guy who has been in Washington for 25 years and wants to give us four more years of the same, and I don't think we need that.
At an event today at Cleveland State University, the wife of Barack Obama talked about the breadth of support her husband's campaign has seen across the country, saying it was a testament to the power of hope.
"When was the last time we've had a presidential candidate of any gender or race or political party who pull together wins in places like Idaho and Utah and Louisiana and Georgia and Maine and Alaska and Missouri, and Illinois?" she said. "What we've been seeing over the course of this year is that folks are hungry for change. ... We've learned that in this nation with a little bit of hope and inspiration people do want to take hold of their destinies and move it in a different place. So yes, I am proud."
Obama took some heat over the last few days for saying duirng a recent campaign event that she is proud of her country for the first time in her adult life. Her remarks drew an uncharacteristic counter from John McCain's wife, Cindy, who said that she's always been proud of her country.
"I just want to make the statement that I have and always will be proud of my country," Cindy McCain said Tuesday in WI.
As rumored, The New Republic was indeed working on a piece about the NYT story on John McCain, focusing on newsroom strife around the investigation. And here it is, up on the mag's Web site this afternoon.
A snippet:
"What happened? The publication of the article capped three months of intense internal deliberations at the Times over whether to publish the negative piece and its most explosive charge about the affair. It pitted the reporters investigating the story, who believed they had nailed it, against executive editor Bill Keller, who believed they hadn't. It likely cost the paper one investigative reporter, who decided to leave in frustration. And the Times ended up publishing a piece in which the institutional tensions about just what the story should be are palpable."
Fresh off the NYT's John McCain bombshell, the Republican National Committee is using the report to raise some coin. Nothing the RNC would like more than to use the Gray Lady to bring the disjointed GOP together (finally!) around its likely nom. After all, Rush Limbaugh and Laura Ingraham -- no fans of McCain -- used the paper's piece to slam the liberal media.
As one GOP strategist told On Call: "Guess what? This provides the Republicans the opportunity to rally around the individual who is going to be the nominee -- and to do one of the things that we do best, attack elitist and out of the mainstream groups."
And here's this letter from RNC Chairman Robert M. "Mike" Duncan, emailed today to supporters:
The New York Times has proven once again that the liberal mainstream media will do whatever it takes to put Senator Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in the White House.
From the beginning of Campaign 2008, liberal media pundits have fawned over the Democrat presidential candidates while ignoring their lack of substance on the issues. You can be certain that as the campaign heats up they will continue to mislead voters with their anti-Republican agenda.
Republicans must fight back against the mainstream media's clear liberal bias -- and we need your help to do it.
Please make an urgent secure online contribution of $1,000, $500, $100, $50, or $25 to help the RNC get our responsible message of lower taxes, a strong national defense, and limited government past the liberal media filter and directly to the voters.
In the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, which surveyed 803 registered voters between February 14 and 17, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 45-43% among Dem primary voters, with 7% undecided. Among GOP primary voters, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53-25%, with 9% undecided.
In a generic general election matchup, the Dem candidate leads the GOP nominee 46-35%, with 14% of voters undecided. The survey also shows Obama leading McCain 48-40%, and Obama leading Huckabee 49-38%. McCain leads Clinton 48-40%, while Clinton leads Huckabee 49-39%.
In a three-person race, Obama leads McCain and Michael Bloomberg 44-39-6%, and Obama leads Huckabee and Bloomberg 47-33-8%. Clinton meanwhile leads McCain and Bloomberg 42-40-6%, and Clinton leads Huckabee and Bloomberg 45-35-7%.
As we ponder the New York Times story on John McCain today, we're reminded that one of the groomsman in his '80 wedding to Cindy Hensley was none other than ... Gary Hart.
"The allegations and malicious innuendo reported by the New York Times yesterday are completely and utterly false. Alcalde & Fay’s relationship with Senator McCain has been professional, appropriate and consistent with his legislative, jurisdictional and constituent duties. The story is based upon the fantasies of a disgruntled former campaign employee and is without foundation or merit. Ms. Iseman is a hard working professional whose 18 year career has been exemplary and she has our full support. It is beneath the dignity of a quality newspaper to participate in such a campaign of character assassination."
Barack Obama has won a primary vote of 20K Democrats living abroad.
"Voters living in 164 countries cast votes online, while expatriates voted in person in more than 30 countries, at hotels in Australia and Costa Rica, at a pub in Ireland and at a Starbucks in Thailand," according to the AP.
Obama won 65% of the vote, compared with 33% for Hillary Clinton. The overseas primary was conducted by Democrats Abroad, an organization sanctioned by the Dem Party.
Meghan McCain, blogging last night in wake of the NYT story about her dad, courtesy of NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli...
"Lucky Girl"
POSTED BY MEGHAN
ON 02.20.08 10:55 PM
Life is all about perspective. Having grown up in politics, I know it's an industry that, for all intents and purposes, is known for being dirty and cruel. And yet, despite it all (and I really mean it all) I feel so grateful and blessed for every single day and for the opportunities I've been given. I have an absolutely epic group of friends, wonderful parents I love and who love me in return, a brother who just returned safely from Iraq, and I have the honor of touring the greatest country in the world with a group of people I just can't get enough of. The list of blessings in my life could go on for days.
Why do I choose to be involved in politics right now? Because my father is different. He's compassionate, full of life, hilarious and is a beacon of integrity to myself and to so many others. Politics is rough, but I absolutely adore my Dad and this campaign and have never, ever stopped believing in him. It's just that simple.
HOUSTON - Mike Huckabee said that he took John McCain at his word and would not speculate on the New York Times article suggesting the Republican front-runner had a relationship with a female lobbyist.
"You know, I've campaigned now on the same stage and platform with John McCain for 14 months, I only know him to be a man of integrity," Huckabee said at a press conference after a rally. "Today he denied any of that was true; I take him at his word. I have no further comment other than that. I think for me to get into it is completely immaterial. Again, I only know him what I know him to be, and that's a good and decent and honorable man."
Pressed to speak about the paper's decision to run the article or what the allegations may mean for the Republican race, he demurred.
"This is politics, but you know, I don't have any further comments on this other than what I've said," Huckabee said. "I feel like that's why I'm not in Texas anyway."
HRC's campaign sends another example this morning of Barack Obama using stump speech lingo that echoes someone else's remarks. This time the comparison is with a 2003 John Edwards speech.
Here's the question -- Does this storyline bring the Clinton campaign any closer to comeback? Is it changing the minds of voters -- or Super Ds?
John McCain, responding to a report this morning that he had a personal relationship with a female lobbyist, said he was "disappointed" with the NYT for publishing the story. During a press conference, he denied that anything inappropriate -- either personally or professionally -- transpired with the woman, Vicki Iseman.
"I consider her a friend," said McCain, his wife, Cindy, by his side.
More: McCain's campaign circulated these comments last night from his attorney, Bob Bennett, on Fox News' "Hannity & Colmes":
Bennett: "Senator McCain did not want a repeat of what occurred years ago in South Carolina, namely a real smear campaign and asked me to assist them and I have been assisting him. And this -- I'm just -- I think what the New York Times did here was shameless, just shameless. As you pointed out in the lead, it's almost entirely unsourced. You know, I'm in a pretty unique position to talk about John McCain. First, I should tell your listeners you know I'm a registered Democrat, so I'm not on his side of a lot of issues. But I investigated John McCain for a year and a half, at least, when I was special counsel to the Senate Ethics Committee in the Keating Five. Which, by the way, this New York Times article goes back to and discusses -- goes back years and years. And if there is one thing I am absolutely confident of is John McCain is an honest man. I recommended to the Senate Ethics Committee that he be cut out of the case, that there was no evidence against him, and I think for the New York Times to dig this up just shows that Senator McCain's public statement about this is correct. It's a smear job."
The late-breaking news from the New York Times on John McCain got plenty of coverage on the cable nets and lead all the morning shows.
McCain also held a presser this a.m. with wife Cindy by his side, where he said of the story: "It's not true."
NBC's K. O'Donnell, with the McCain campaign: "Obviously this changes the dynamic of the campaign trail. We'll have to press him on this" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/20).
Newsweek's Wolffe: "This story has been talked about inside Washington for a long period of time. There was a lot of controversy about the New York Times holding it, about why they weren't going to print with it."
Wolffe, asked if this will help Huckabee: "It's obviously not divine intervention, it's the New York Times."
More Wolffe: "Some people, especially certain web sites are going to be focused on the personal aspect to this. But really what's much more important is what it says about John McCain's relationship to lobbyists and to business interests inside Washington at a time when he's presenting himself as a candidate of reform who has taken on lobbyists like Jack Abramoff" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/20).
Newsweek's Alter: "I was covering that campaign quite intently in 2000. I've spent a lot of time with John McCain that year and actually, this issue of his relationship with lobbyist did surface. He had to go on 'Nightline' with Ted Koppel and answered questions about it."
More Alter: "This gives a lot of ammo to his Republican opponents and more important, arguably, to Barack Obama, should he be the nominee. We've already noticed that on several issues, Obama is working on a theme of John McCain as hypocritical on torture, because he voted for a bill recently that was quite different and his attitude toward waterboarding and what he had enunciated previously on finance campaign reform. Clearly on taxes, Obama has gone after McCain for being a hypocrite on that. ... You may see this relationship with lobbyists turn up in some of what Barack Obama has to say as he turns his attention to what he now is assuming will be a general election campaign against John McCain" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/20).
The NYT decided to go with a story this p.m. on John McCain's much-rumored relationship with Vicki Iseman, 40, a partner at the firm Alcalde & Fay, who represented telecommunications companies for whom the Senate commerce cmte that McCain once chaired was pivotal.
"Both say they never had a romantic relationship," reads the article, with an unusual four-person byline (Rutenberg/Thompson/Kirkpatrick/Labaton). "But to his advisers, even the appearance of a close bond with a lobbyist whose clients often had business before the Senate committee Mr. McCain led threatened the story of redemption and rectitude that defined his political identity."
In a statement released tonight after the NYT posted the article on its website, McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker called the report "gutter politics."
"It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards to engage in a hit and run smear campaign," she said. "Americans are sick and tired of this kind of gutter politics, and there is nothing in this story to suggest that John McCain has ever violated the principles that have guided his career."
James Hoffa, president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, said tonight that his board voted unanimously to endorse Barack Obama, a decision that stemmed from Obama's interest in renegotiating NAFTA, rebuilding the nation's infrastructure and pushing for universal health care.
During a conference call with reporters, Hoffa also said that the vote was taken after the union's members were polled. In the group's surveys, Obama faired better than Hillary Clinton against John McCain. Clinton's negatives, Hoffa added, were also higher than her rival's. He wouldn't provide specific numbers.
The Teamsters chief said that momentum is on Obama's side, and he stressed the candidate's "rock star presence," saying that Obama's ability to energize the electorate and routinely pack large athletic stadiums cannot be ignored.
"I think his candidacy is just starting to take off," Hoffa said.
Hoffa said he will appear in Ohio Friday with Obama, but the details of that event are still pending. He also noted that he tried to reach Hillary Clinton before news of the group's endorsement was leaked to reporters, but that he hasn't yet spoken directly with her. Hoffa said he holds Bill and Hillary Clinton in the "highest regard."
"She’s still going to be a senator, whatever happens, or she’s going to be president of the United States," he said. "This is not a retaliation or anything like that."
The Teamsters has 1.4M members.
RNC Spokesman Alex Conant issued this statement about the endorsement: “Nothing says ‘change’ like the Teamsters and James Hoffa. Long-winded speeches and partisan endorsements are no substitute for serious policy discussions. Some partisan groups may applaud Obama’s ‘most liberal’ rhetoric, but the freshman senator must still answer real questions about his record and experience.”
Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-TX, announced today that he'd back Barack Obama.
“When he stands up, all the world will know that America really has changed, that the disastrous policies of the last eight years have ended,” said Doggett, a DNC superdelegate. “That is why today, I am announcing my vote for and endorsement of Barack Obama.”
“My decision is not based on what is wrong with another candidate, but what is right with him,” he added in a statement released by the campaign.
More: “Today, I am adding one more delegate vote to Senator Obama's total, and I am adding my every effort to help win the support he needs among our neighbors here in Central Texas, win the nomination nationwide, and win the general election in November, so that in 334 days, President Obama can take the helm and set the new course that this country so needs.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Kind, D-WI, committed his Super D vote to Obama, in keeping with the wishes of his district, which voted overwhelmingly yesterday for the IL senator.
Bill Clinton in Beaumont, TX, today: "If she wins in Texas and Ohio, she'll be the nominee. If she doesn't, I don't think she can be. It's all on you."
The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers endorsed Barack Obama today, giving him another critical union nod. The Teamsters Union is expected to follow this afternoon.
“Barack Obama is bringing together a diverse coalition and inspiring people to action like no other candidate has in decades,” said International Brotherhood of Boilermakers President N.B. Jones. “Barack Obama has shown the energy and vision to unite Americans, jumpstart our economy, and put working people first again. Our members are grateful for his efforts opposing unfair trade deals, and his proposal to reward employers who retain and create good jobs here at home. That’s the kind of leadership we need right now.”
Remember, the SEIU -- with 1.9M members the country's largest union -- endorsed Obama last week.
The RNC's Alex Conant sends this note of interest about Barack Obama to On Call today:
Obama’s speech last night was as long as President Bush’s State of the Union Address last month (approx. 50 minutes). Yet, news of the day was noticeably missing:
John McCain's team is going after Barack Obama this a.m. on the question of public financing. Team McCain's oppo drop, alleging that Obama has flipped on the question of public financing, after the jump.
Here's the Obama response, per spokesman Bill Burton: “John McCain is in no place to question anyone on pledges when he abandoned the latest campaign finance reform efforts in order to run for the Republican nomination and went back on his commitment to take public financing for the primary election this year."
This seems to us to be the only hit of the week with legs. The "plagiarism" stuff is totally bogus; the candidates co-opt each other's language constantly, as evidenced by clips of Hillary Clinton using Obama's "Fired Up" catchphrase. But on the matter of public financing, Obama said one thing -- yes to a public financing commitment, as specified in a Midwest Democracy Network questionnaire -- and now appears to be backtracking. This episode raises questions about his veracity on a matter that goes to the heart of his change argument. If the system is broken, if Washington needs a new and different kind of politics, shouldn't Obama -- as a self-described agent of that change -- take the public financing plunge?
If Hillary Clinton couldn't win WI, a state that is demographically tailor-made for her strengths (9 of 10 are white, working class/lower income voters make up a solid percentage of voters), then how can she possibly take Ohio?
Check this out:
OH/WI
whites
84%/87%
college grads
21%/22%
earns less than $50K
59%/57%
blue collar workers
28%/28%
And Barack Obama has one built-in edge in OH: black voters. They make up 11.4% of state voters, double the 5.6% in WI.
Hawaii went for native son Barack Obama last night, 76% to 24% with 100% of caucus precincts reporting. The win marks the 10th consecutive primary victory for Obama since Super Tuesday.
HI Sen. Daniel Inouye, who has been voting since 1948, told the AP that the turnout was the biggest he's ever seen: "For the first time we have a woman against an African-American. What more do you want?" asked Inouye, 83, as he stood in line to vote.
This clip of Chris Matthews pushing an Obama surrogate to name the senator's legislative accomplishments is being circulated by the Clinton campaign and the RNC. Question -- Whose performance is most cringe-worthy? Matthews, or TX State Sen. Kirk Watson.
We'll have results in the a.m. out of Hawaii, which is expected to tilt toward Obama, the native son.
The AP is reporting this evening that "crowds of voters are expected to pack the 68 neighborhood caucus locations statewide, with 12,000 people or more participating in the presidential vote starting at 7 p.m. HST."
More on HI: "About 5K people have signed up with the state Democratic Party since Super Tuesday two weeks ago, bringing the party’s total membership to about 25,000 statewide."
We'll also have the results of the WA GOP primary ... The contest is less critical at this point, with McCain poised to seize his party's nom.
The latest WI exit polls posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 56-43% among Dems. Among GOPers, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 55-34%.
In WI, Obama won Inds 62-34%, and turnout was 2:1 in favor of Dem ballot.
As we know, McCain bases his appeal in large measure on his renegade rep and ability to attract moderates. If Obama's the nom, and McCain has trouble rallying the GOP base, this could prove a critical variable in a general election match-up.
In Missouri, which Barack Obama won 49-48%, Hillary Clinton won white men 55-41%, voters without a college degree 50-47% and union households 58-39%. Tonight in Wisconsin, however, Obama leads among white men 62-36%, voters without a college degree 54-45% and union households 51-47%.
Wisconsin exit polls posted by MSNBC show John McCain leading Mike Huckabee 47-36% among men, who made up 58% of GOP primary voters. McCain also leads Huckabee 59-35% among women.
Exit polls also show...
-- McCain leading 45-43% among conservatives (61% of voters) and 64-27% among moderates (29% of voters).
-- 42% of voters believe McCain is not conservative enough, while 49% believe he is about right.
-- Huckabee leading 54-32% among Evangelical/Born-Again Christians (38% of voters), and McCain leading 62-25% among all others.
-- Huckabee leading 46-43% among the 69% of voters who believe abortion should be illegal.
-- McCain leading 55-37% among Republicans (71% of voters) and 41-36% among Independents (24% of voters).
-- Huckabee leading 47-43% on illegal immigration, and McCain leading 61-28% on Iraq, 48-39% on the economy and 59-30% on terrorism.
-- Huckabee leading 53-33% on shares my values, and McCain leading 55-31% on says what he believes and 86-11% on experience.
-- Huckabee leading McCain 50-37% among those voters aged 30-44 (22% of voters), while McCain leads Huckabee 52-28% among those aged 45-59 (25% of voters) and 61-32% among voters 60 and over (47% of voters).
-- McCain leading 51-37% among the 59% of voters who frequently or occasionally listen to conservative talk radio and 53-36% among those who listen rarely or never.
At his speech in Houston, Obama directly addresses his opponents' attacks on him by acknowledging that change is " gonna take more than big rallies and rousing speeches. It will take more than policy papers and positions. It's gonna require something more. "
Yet, this address has turned no new ground, nor did it introduce any specifics to his current positions.
Barack Obama did not wait for Hillary Clinton to finish her speech this evening -- even though it was teased as a major address, one in which she would be aided, uncharacteristically, by a teleprompter. And the nets followed, switching coverage to the IL senator.
MSNBC’s Olbermann, on Obama speaking before Clinton was finished: “The etiquette of the campaign has ended.”
John McCain tonight went after Barack Obama. McCain did not hold back in pitching himself as older but wiser, tested, a veteran.
"I’m not the youngest candidate, but I am the most experienced. My friends, I know what our military can do, what it can do better and what it should not do. I know how Congress works and how to make it work for the country. … I know how the world works. I know the good and the evil in it. ... I don’t seek the office out of a sense of entitlement. I owe America more than she has ever owed me. ... I’ve been an imperfect servant in my country for many years. I’ve never lived a day in good times and in bad that I haven’t been proud, proud of the privilege."
FNC’s Rove: "Tonight Sen. McCain took his first shot at him and in a very conservative fashion, saying he is not fit to be commander in chief."
CNN’s King, on McCain’s speech: “That was full bore, welcome to the fall campaign.” A “direct assault to Barack Obama.”
CNN’s Toobin, on McCain playing the experience card over Obama: “This was the argument Hillary Clinton has tried and failed against Barack Obama”
Wisconsin exit polls posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 51-49% among women, who made up 57% of voters. Obama also leads 61-35% among all men and 59-38% among white men.
Exit polls also show...
-- Obama leading 51-49% among those making less than $50,000 a year (41% of voters) and 50-48% among voters without a college degree (59% of voters).
-- Obama leading 67-33% among first-time primary voters (11% of electorate).
-- 54% of voters believe Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, while only 34% believe Obama attacked Clinton unfairly.
-- 68% of voters would be satisfied with Clinton as the Democratic nominee, while 80% would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee.
-- Obama leading 73-20% among voters aged 18-29 (14% of voters), 66-34% among those aged 30-44 (20% of voters) and 56-44% among those aged 45-59 (28% of voters). Clinton, however, leads 55-43% among voters 60 and over (39% of voters).
-- Obama leading 50-49% among Democrats (64% of voters) and 63-34% among Independents (27% of voters).
-- Obama leading 56-40% among liberals, 54-46% among moderates and 52-48% among conservatives.
-- Obama leading 55-43% on the economy, 57-40% on Iraq and 51-48% on health care.
-- Obama leading 77-20% on change, and Clinton leading 95-5% on experience.
-- Obama leading cities 66-30%, suburbs 53-46% and rurals 51-48%.
Called first by MSNBC ... Followed by FNC and CNN ...
Newsweek’s Fineman said Clinton advisers Mark Penn, Mandy Grunwald and Harold Ickes would “probably go to war” with each other if HRC didn’t win any primaries tonight (Countdown,” MSNBC, 2/19).
NBC’s Mitchell, on Clinton camp reax: “They are not happy but, of course, what they are saying is they managed to narrow the gap here. … A lot of things went against her but most prominently their indecision on whether to take Wisconsin seriously” (MSNBC).
"I will be our party's nominee for president of the United States. Thank you, Wisconsin."
--John McCain tonight
And this from McCain as he eyes a potential match-up with Obama: He said he will "make sure that Americans are not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change that promises no more than a holiday from history."
FOX's Hume: "John McCain, as we noted, might be the man."
Called by CNN, FOX and MSNBC as clock struck 9 p.m. ET ...
MSNBC’s Olbermann called WI for McCain as polls closed but noted: “The Democratic race is too early to call but exit polls show Barack Obama has a substantial lead.”
CNN’s Blitzer said based on the exit polls, Obama “does have the lead,” but CNN can’t yet predict a winner.
CNN’s Crowley noted that an Obama strategist called WI the “no excuses” primary for Clinton. In every state she’s lost, she’s blamed different factors. But in WI, there are a lot of Dem voters that fit HRC’s profile, so Obama’s people think a victory tonight will mean a lot if he can win with an electorate that favors HRC.
NBC’s Russert: “If Hillary Clinton can pull an upset tonight it can be a game changer.”
Russert also mentioned the plagiarism charges against Obama and noted: “I think we’ll learn tonight whether attacks work in a Democratic Primary.”
More Russert: “If Obama sweeps Wisconsin and Hawaii … it’s going to freeze any super delegates from endorsing Hillary Clinton.” Russert, on HRC: “She needs a win” (“Countdown,” MSNBC, 2/19).
Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod, talking to NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan today, explains the similarities between Obama's WI JJ speech and remarks Deval Patrick made on the campaign trail in MA.
"He’s making a political argument. And the political argument was very much the same in both campaigns. Which is that this is not about him, it’s about that people need to do this for themselves, not for a candidate. This is not about the advancement of one candidate. That was a central theme of the 2006 campaign. That was essentially what ‘Yes We Can’ was about in 2004. Deval embraced some of that in 2006. These guys are kindred political spirits. They believe in the same kind of philosophy. It’s distinctive. And Barack is expressing it there."
Given the fuss over pledged delegates -- She's stealing ours, no, he's stealing ours -- the DNC forwarded a primer to reporters today. Available in full after the jump, here are the highlights:
Delegates are pledged "in all good conscience (to) reflect the sentiments of those who elected them."
BUT it is not required that they cast their vote for the candidate they are publicly pledged to.
BROOKFIELD, WI – Cindy McCain took a subtle jab at the wife of the Democratic frontrunner today during a rally here, playing a more vocal and visible role in the campaign than usual.
"I'm proud of my country, I don't know about you if you heard those words earlier. I'm very proud of my country," Cindy McCain said, alluding to Michelle Obama's statement in WI yesterday that for the first time in her adult life she was proud of America.
When asked if his wife was criticizing either of the Obamas, John McCain said, "I don't think we have any comment on that."
When pressed to elaborate, Cindy McCain said: "I just want to make the statement that I have and always will be proud of my country."
Howard Wolfson said on a conference call with reporters a few minutes ago that Hillary Clinton's campaign raised $15M online in the first 15 days of the month ...
Meanwhile, HRC's Ohio state director, Robby Mook, said Clinton would be heading to Appalachia in coming days and is, in keeping with the theme of her latest TV ad, expected to work the night shift. Details to come on both appearances. The major issue of concern to Ohio voters, Mook said, jobs, jobs, jobs.
TX state director Ace Smith said HRC has 20 offices open in the Lone Star State. The campaign will vigorously target young people in TX, Smith said, much as it did in CA. "We’re going to run a campaign down here where we concede absolutely nothing," he added.
Roger Simon reported in Politico this a.m. that an unnamed senior Clinton staffer told him the campaign would soon go after its rival's pledged delegates. The revelation started tongues a wagging in Barack Obama's camp, giving David Plouffe a quick and easy reason to summon reporters for the conference call du jour.
“Every day there seems to be a new tactic they’re developing that might allow them to pull a rabbit out of hat and subvert the will of the voters,” Plouffe said on the call.
Plouffe was joined on the call by former DNC chairman David Wilhelm who said that the Obama team has always "played by the rules." He noted Florida and Michigan as one example. He said the Simon piece is "beyond troubling" and urged party elders to get involved.
"I would just add that sometimes nominations are not worth having, and one of those times would be when the nomination comes at the cost of ripping the party apart," Wilhelm said.
But Clinton spokesman Phil Singer issued a statement to On Call that suggests Simon's source was misguided. Wooing already pledged delegates, he said, is not on HRC's agenda.
"We have not, are not and will not pursue the pledged delegates of Barack Obama," Singer said. "It's now time for the Obama campaign to be clear about their intentions regarding our pledged delegates."
The three leading presidential candidates weighed in this morning on news that Fidel Castro is stepping down as Cuba's president. Raul Castro, the leader's brother, is expected to take over. Still, the candidates spoke with one voice in urging the nation to seize the opportunity to embrace democracy and freedom.
Hillary Clinton said it's time for Cuba to join "the community of democratic nations." "The American people have been on the side in the Cuban people's struggle for freedom and democracy in the past and we will be on their side for democracy in the future," she said in a statement released by her campaign.
Barack Obama said that Castro's announcement marks the "end of a dark era in Cuba's history," but is "an essential first step" in bringing freedom to Cuba.
John McCain said Cuba's transition to democracy is "inevitable." "We must press the Cuban regime to release all political prisoners unconditionally, to legalize all political parties, labor unions and free media, and to schedule internationally monitored elections," McCain said in a statement.
As Hillary Clinton's campaign looks on the eve of another round of primaries to make an issue of Barack Obama's use in a weekend speech of lines previously used by his pal and supporter Gov. Deval Patrick, the Obama team points to this ...
HRC in Iowa: "And we are fired up, and we are ready to go ... "
YOUNGSTOWN, OH -- Barack Obama acknowledged today that he probably "should have" given Deval Patrick credit for lines he used at Saturday's Jefferson Jackson Dinner in Wisconsin but added that he didn't think "it was too big of a deal."
"I was on the stump," Obama said. Patrick "had suggested we use these lines. I thought they were good lines. I'm sure I should have. Didn't this time."
The Clinton camp, in an earlier conference call, has said that by using someone else's language, lines uttered by Patrick in a 2006 speech, Obama had shown himself to be inauthentic.
"I've written two books, wrote most of my speeches, so I putting aside the question that you just raised whether my words are my own, I think that would be carrying it too far," Obama said.
He reaffirmed the close relationship that he and Patrick share, and said that no one has taken issue with Clinton ripping off some of his lines.
"Deval and I do trade ideas all the time, and he's occasionally used lines of mine, and I, at a JJ dinner in Wisconsin, used some words of his. And I would add, on occasion, Sen. Clinton has used words of mine as well," he said.
Obama also said that the excitement he was generating was his own and not because he had used ideas or language from others.
"I'm happy to give Deval credit as I give to a lot of people for spurring all kinds of ideas," he said. "But I think its fair to say that everything we've been doing and generating the excitement and the interest people have had in the elections is based on the core belief in me that we need change in America."
The Clinton campaign held a conference call Monday, led by Massachusetts Rep. Jim McGovern and Communications Dir. Howard Wolfson, to discuss Barack Obama's use this weekend in WI of a key chunk of a 2006 Deval Patrick speech. The Clinton supporters argued that by lifting -- or borrowing, or echoing, depending on one's view -- Patrick's lines about the power of words Obama "raises questions about the premise of his candidacy."
"If you use someone else's words or someone else's ideas, I think you should credit them," McGovern said, adding that Obama's use of the Massachusetts governor's words without attribution made those words less inspiring, less authentic and more politically calculating. He also argued Obama's economic plan was just like Clinton's and that the American president should be someone who can come up with original ideas.
(NOTE -- David Axelrod, a top Obama strategist, helped run Patrick's 2006 gube campaign in MA. Patrick is an Obama supporter.)
Wolfson said Clinton was "not running to be Orator in Chief" but to be president, but that Obama was "fundamentally" running on the strength of his rhetoric and the strength of his promises, because he has not had a lengthy career in public life. He also said Obama was asking the public to judge him on his promises and had broken them, most recently by backing away from a pledge to take public financing in the general election if nominated.
The call seemed sure to invite increased scrutiny of the two candidates' speeches in the coming weeks and possibly even extensive research into their past speeches to look for examples of "lifted" passages.
Clinton has been using rhetorical flourishes reminiscent of Obama lately. Here's a recent example from her speech at the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Richmond, VA, Feb. 9:
"I am ready to make your case, because your voices are the change we seek," she said, echoing a similar line from Obama's Super Tuesday speech in Chicago: "We are the ones we've been waiting for, we are the change we seek." (The first part of the quote is frequently attributed to elders from the Native American Hopi culture, a saying Maria Shriver cited during her endorsement of Obama.)
But when one reporter pointed out that Clinton had used the Obama slogan "Fired up ready to go" in a speech, Wolfson argued they were not making an issue about whether one of the candidates had strung a few words together from another, but about Obama's decision to use a major chunk of another politician's speech and repeat it almost verbatim. He also suggested Obama had used a line in his presidential announcement that was very similar to rhetoric used by John Edwards when he made his presidential announcement in 2003.
In answering questions about whether it was acceptable to use the language of a friend who approves of its use, Wolfson argued the issue was that the public did not know Obama's words were not his own. By contrast, he said that it was possible the New York senator had used Bill Clinton's phrase "bridge to the 21st century", but that if she had, the public probably knew where it came from.
With one day until primaries in Hawaii and Wisconsin, as well as Washington State's GOP contest, the candidates are focused on the Badger State. There are 74 delegates at stake in WI and 20 up for grabs in Hawaii.
Barack Obama starts the day in Youngstown, OH, with a rally at Youngstown State University. He heads later to Beloit, WI, for an event at Beloit College's Flood Arena.
Hillary Clinton holds an a.m. town hall in De Pere, WI, at St. Norbert University. In the afternoon, she has another town hall at the Wausau Labor Temple. Chelsea Clinton joins her mom in the evening for an event at the Monona Terrace, Exhibition Hall, in Madison.
John McCain is also in WI tomorrow -- and Tuesday. He is scheduled to make remarks in Appleton at the Outagamie County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner tomorrow evening. He is expected to have a media avail Tuesday a.m. in Brookfield, WI.
STEUBENVILLE, Ohio – A frustrated Bill Clinton angrily raised his voice in response to heckling from pro-life protestors at a rally here tonight.
When protestors first held up signs reading "Abortion Kills Children," the former president responded calmly, outlining his wife's past policies to help children and mothers. But when interrupted a second time by a more vocal heckler, Clinton shouted in response and stabbed his finger at the protestor.
"I gave you the answer. We disagree with you," he said impatiently. "You wanna criminalize women and their doctors, and we disagree."
"If you were really pro-life, you would want to put every doctor and every mother as an accessory to murder in prison," he continued, as the crowd applauded its support. "And you won't say you wanna do that because you know that you wouldn't have a lick of political support."
"This is not your rally," he concluded, still agitated. "I heard you. That's another thing you need is a president, somebody who will stick up for individual rights and not be pushed around, and she won't."
The outburst came after Clinton earlier responded to protestors who held up anti-abortion signs at the front of the rally. He boasted then of the steps he and his wife took to reduce abortions. "Without overturning Roe v. Wade, or trying to keep people all torn up and upset or calling them killers," he said, "the abortion rate went down almost 20 percent on our watch."
In addition to the sign-holders, and the man who interrupted the former president (who left the rally of his own accord), three young people spent the rally praying the rosary quietly -- with their backs to Clinton.
"It's easy for a politician to run and say, 'I'm pro-life, you vote for me and we'll get rid of Roe v. Wade,'" Clinton told the crowd. "Nobody can tell you how they're gonna do that. … It's not gone yet."
In a delegate race that's essentially tied, with Obama in a slight lead, the Edwards nod could be very valuable.
Obama's campaign said in a statement: "Senator Obama visited this morning with John and Elizabeth Edwards at their home in Chapel Hill to discuss the state of the campaign and the pressing issues facing American families."
COLUMBUS, OH - Politics as usual won't cut it. But Bill Clinton said this morning that America faces serious challenges, and that only the political system could address them.
"Politics is important, because there are some things we do through our elected leaders that can be done in no other way," he said at St. Paul AME Church this morning. "The truth is, we can never build a good society unless we have strong citizens, strong families and communities and churches, and strong leadership."
The former president spoke at length about problems in the economy and health care, and then talked about solutions that he said "only the political system can make." "Only the political system can decide, will you finally stop making excuses and get everybody health care and get rid of these excessive costs," he said. "You're not going to be able to save the economy or get more jobs past a certain job unless we do it. That is a decision for you to make."
Clinton also argued that the job of the president in particular is "to take the good intentions we all have and turn them into positive changes in other people's lives." "I respect everybody's choice in this election. This is not an easy deal," he said. "But the job we have to do now is vote for the person most likely to turn all of our good intentions into positive changes."
Clinton arrived this morning just in time for the church collection. Having just sat down, Clinton reached for his wallet, took out a few bills of unknown denomination and placed them in the collection plate.
After his remarks, Clinton remained on stage for the closing benediction and hymn. Without the help of a hymnal, the former president seemed to know all the words, singing loudly, at times with hand on heart. Clinton had joked that a relative once told him: "I think you could have been a preacher, Bill. If only you'd been a better boy."
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan has nabbed the new Hillary Clintonmailer circulating in WI that hits Barack Obama for offering a health care plan that leaves 15M Americans without coverage.
"Barack Obama, Which Of These People Don't Deserve Health Care?" the front reads, above a photo of seven people of different ages and races.
The mailer says that HRC is the only candidate, Dem or Republican, whose plan would cover everyone.
The Obama campaign fought back in a conference call featuring Ted Kennedy and WI Gov. Jim Doyle.
Kennedy told reporters in a conference call that he had been fighting for universal healthcare for 38 years and would not have endorsed Obama if he didn't believe that he wasn't for it or couldn't pass it. He told reporters that the Clinton campaign was resorting to the same kind of "fear mongering" that had scuttled their efforts to et a health care plan through Congress in 1994.
Kennedy also introduced a new line of attack on Clinton, saying that neither she nor her husband were initially for the S-chip program which he introduced in the Senate with Republican Orin Hatch after the failure of Clinton's health care plan in 1994.
But he had no answer for why the Obama campaign had also gone negative in their ads about healthcare and engaged in what some claimed was "fear mongering" as well, by dropping a mailer that had an eerie resemblance to the Harry and Louise ads that were released by drug companies to discredit the Clinton plan in the early nineties.
"We've seen this in the past," Kennedy said of Clinton's tactics. "Carter insisted there was health planning and cost containment. Those are legitimate debates. But what is not legitimate is to undermine the central position of Barack Obama of not being for universal comprehensive healthcare. That is the distortion… is a misrepresentation and that is fundamentally wrong."
Doyle, who has in other calls criticized Clinton for not spending enough time campaigning in the Badger State, said today that HRC's campaign has spent more time attacking Obama than talking to WI voters.
"It reflects how Senator Clinton has conducted the campaign in Wiscosin," he said about the mailer. "Before she even came to the state she started running negative TV ads which distorted Senator Obama's record."
The first post-Potomac primary Gallup tracking poll of national likely voters shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49-42% among Dems, with 7% undecided. The same poll shows John McCain leading Mike Huckabee 54-28% among GOPers.
The survey of 1,223 Dems and 999 GOPers was taken 2/13-15; each sample has a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Another Hillary Clinton ad up in WI today ... In case anyone wondered if Clinton wants the Badger State in her win column. She might not have campaigned there yet -- she sent Bill and Chelsea instead but is due for an event in Milwaukee tomorrow eve -- but by our count, this is her fourth spot.
Hillary Clinton aired an ad this week in WI poking rival Barack Obama for not agreeing to a Badger State debate. Obama's team struck back with a spot that accused Clinton of practicing politics as usual by sparking a debate feud. And today, HRC's team answered Obama's response ad with "Deserves" ...
SEIU voted last night "overwhelmingly" to endorse Barack Obama, a big get for the IL sen in the lead up to the next round of contests in states -- OH and PA especially -- with strong union chapters.
The group's president, Andy Stern, and Anna Burger, its secretary-treasurer, indicated this afternoon on a call with reporters that despite the close contest on the Democratic side, their leaders felt that the group's endorsement might help the party avoid a convention fight for the nom. With John Edwards out of the race -- the North Carolina senator had loyal support within the group that kept the organization from endorsing -- the choice became clear.
Stern said Obama, a former community organizer, has been a friend to unions over the course of his career. More broadly, he said, the union is endorsing because they recognize in Obama the ability to attract a broad and deep coalition of voters.
"It’s about the right person at the right time," Stern said. "We think this is a moment that’s an opportunity for fundamental change in this country."
SEIU has 1.9M members in the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico and is the largest union representing health care and property services workers in the country. Stern said the group has 150k members in the upcoming primary contests, adding that WI, OH, PA, RI, TX and OR have strong chapters.
Burger said the group will be "on the ground, on the air, (and) in the streets" working for the senator in states where it can "make a difference."
The New York chapter -- out of loyalty to Hillary Clinton -- abstained from voting.
"We have an enormous amount of respect for Sen. Clinton and appreciate so much what she’s done for us," Stern said.
Here are the listings for the Sunday talk shows and other weekend programming:
SUNDAY:
Meet the Press hosts Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a roundtable with Bloomberg's Margaret Carlson, Bloomberg's Al Hunt, Chicago Sun-Times' Robert Novak, National Review's Kate O'Beirne, and syndicated columnist Mark Shields.
Face the Nation hosts HRC adviser Howard Wolfson, Obama adviser David Axelrod, ex-Gov./Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder, L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and Politico's Roger Simon.
This Week hosts John McCain and a roundtable with Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, Time's Jay Carney, ABC's Claire Shipman and George Will.
Fox News Sunday hosts DNI dir. Mike McConnell, and Govs. Jim Doyle (D-WI) and Ted Strickland (D-OH).
Late Edition hosts Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) and a roundtable with CNN's Gloria Borger and CNN's John King.
OTHER WEEKEND SHOWS:
Real Time hosts Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) (HBO, FRI, 11 pm).
Washington Week hosts National Journal's Jim Barnes, CNN's Gloria Borger, Politico's Jeanne Cummings, and Vanity Fair's Todd Purdum on WH '08 (PBS, FRI, 8 pm).
Political Capital hosts Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Bloomberg, FRI, 8:30 pm).
Newsmakers features DCCC Chari Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) questioned by Roll Call's David Drucker and Washington Post's Paul Kane (C-SPAN, SUN, 10 am/6 pm).
Road to the White House features McCain in WI (C-SPAN, SUN, 6:30 pm/9:30 pm).
Q&A features "18 in '08" founder David Burstein (C-SPAN, SUN, 8 pm/11 pm).
Chris Matthews Show hosts NBC's David Gregory, New York Times' Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times' David Brooks, and Financial Times' Chrystia Freeland on WH '08 (NBC, check local listings). [EMILY GOODIN]
The latest Gallup tracking poll of national LVs shows Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 47-45% among Dems, with 6% undecided. Among GOPers, John McCain leads Mike Huckabee 53-28%.
CINCINNATI, OH -- Roundtables are becoming Sen. Hillary Clinton's modus operandi. At her second one in as many days, Clinton said today she was the candidate of the middle class.
"I am a candidate of, from and for the middle class of America," she said as a way of summing up her campaign. "Sometimes I hear people say on TV or read in the papers, say, 'Well, she gets so intense' you know 'She gets all, you know, upset' Well, you're right, I am upset because the American Dream and the American middle class is at risk!"
She appeared with Gov. Ted Strickland, Cong. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, and Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory and spent about an hour talking about healthcare, education, college affordability, the home foreclosure crisis and other issues.
Clinton held a roundtable on the home foreclosure crisis yesterday in Dayton and had one at Yale the day before Super Tuesday that focused mainly on healthcare. She also had a small gathering at a house in Los Angeles in the lead-up to Feb. 5th, where she discussed foreclosures.
When asked at Yale why so many roundtables, a spokesman said this kind of thing was what her campaign was all about, discussing issues she’s passionate about with intimate, policy gatherings, displaying the depth of her knowledge on a range topics and showing that she’s willing to do the work.
These roundtables are an interesting counter to Barack Obama’s huge rallies. HRC doesn’t draw Obama’s crowds, but she is arguably effective in smaller gatherings, and it has often been observed by those who’ve met her, and by her staffers, that the closer people get to the senator, the more they like her. The problem is that she can’t meet every voter. Last night, Clinton acknowledged that at a rally in Columbus with former Ohio Sen. John Glenn, asking the crowd to help her get her message out over the next three weeks.
A new statewide survey of TX voters shows John McCain and Mike Huckabee locked in a statistical tie. McCain's up 45% to Huck's 41%. Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama, meanwhile, 49% to 41%.
The poll, conducted for the Texas Credit Union League, Public Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns, shows that illegal immigration is of paramount concern to TX GOPers, while TX Dems are focused on education.
McCain draws support from moderates/liberals, women between the ages of 45 and 54 and white educated women. Huck is dominating among men without degrees, those who self-identify as very conservative (especially men), religious conservatives and church goers. McCain is doing well in the south, central and Dallas Fort-Worth regions of the state, while Huck is dominating in east and west TX.
The poll shows that McCain's emphasis on his national security creds, which has helped in other places, is not resonating with TX voters. Among voters who say terrorism and national security are the most important issues facing the nation, Huck wins out, 50% to 39%. He also does better among voters who say illegal immigration is the critical issue of the day, 55% to 27%.
On the Dem side, Clinton's pattern of support is a familiar one; she is dominating with Hispanics, women and strong Democrats. Obama's support is coming from African Americans, Indies, men and wealthier voters. These groups have proved to be his core constituencies as well.
There was a lot of talk on TV last night about the shootings at Northern Illinois University. But here are the political highlights:
John McCain was on "LKL" last night:
Asked if he was surprised at Romney's endorsement: "I was a bit surprised because it's been a short time since the primary, since he decided to suspend his campaign. I'm very appreciative. He could have waited until like March 4th, as you well know, after the Texas and Ohio primaries. So I was a little surprised. But I'm very appreciative but he came out very quickly and this is an important time, as you know, to keep the momentum going in the race."
More on Romney: "He has earned himself a very important spot in the Republican Party."
Asked his feelings on Huckabee: "I respect Governor Huckabee. I have a good relationship with him. We've run a very respectful campaign. ... He has a very winning way about him and I respect if he's going to stay in the race. I am more confident today, in light of our victories in Virginia and Maryland and the District, that we are on the path to the nomination. But I respect Governor Huckabee. If he wants to stay in this campaign, stay in."
Asked why conservatives have a lot of "venom" about him: "I don't know."
Asked Rush Limbaugh's "gripe" about him: "I don't know. I've never met Mr. Limbaugh. I respect him. He's highly regarded and very popular. But, look, we're on the path to uniting the party. More and more conservatives are coming on board. In the Virginia and Maryland elections, we got a good percentage of the conservative voters. I realize that we have to unite the whole party and I'm trying to reach out to all parts of the party to unite us."
Asked about Mark McKinnon's reported comment to NPR that he would leave McCain's campaign if Obama is the nominee: "I love Mark McKinnon. He's one of the unique geniuses and great guys. I haven't had a conversation about that with Mark, but I am very grateful for all of his support that he's given us. ... I think there's maybe some clarification that I would like to talk to him about, but he's a unique person and a wonderful guy. And I'm grateful to have him as a friend."
Asked if he would consider Romney for the VP slot: "When I start to think about it, I avoid it." More: "Make sure you have the nomination. There's plenty of time to go through this process. And I am a person who really believes that you ought to address one challenge at a time. There will be plenty of time to address that issue. But it will be a person who is most prepared to immediately take my place if something should happen."
Asked if he would consider a woman: "I would consider any great American who I think is qualified to run this country" (CNN, 2/14).
The New York Times is reporting tonight that Rep. John Lewis will back Barack Obama's presidential bid -- a move he says keeps with the wishes of his Georgia district, which voted for Obama during the state's Feb. 5 primary. Lewis endorsed Hillary Clinton last fall.
Lewis, a superdelegate, told the paper he didn't want to see a convention brawl and, as a "respected elder statesman" would be willing to mediate any discussions to guarantee the nomination contest wraps within the next month. But he's also come around to the view that Obama has matured as a candidate. Lewis said he is impressed with his ability to draw support from a broad range of constituencies.
“Something is happening in America and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap,” he told the NYT's Zeleny and Healy.
It makes sense, at least in this writer's view, that the superdelegates make their decision based on the votes of their districts or states. The popular vote even seems a legit way to measure the country's sentiment should this contest reach an impasse. But here's our question ... What happens if Clinton scores victories in WI, OH, TX and PA? Not out of the realm of the possible, what with her appeal to working class voters. Then what? Who appears the frontrunner if that happens?
New Mexico residents caucused on Super Tuesday, but with provisional ballots outstanding and a small margin between the leading candidates, the state couldn't be called. With eight straight states voting for Obama, Hillaryland couldn't have used this headline more.
MItt Romney endorsing John McCain today in Boston sounded very, very veeply:
"I'm officially endorsing his candidacy," Romney said, "and today I'm asking my delegates to vote for Sen. McCain at the convention."
"In the thick of the fight, it's easy to lose sight of your opponent's finer qualities but the truth is ... I could never quite do that," he added. Romney also said "the caliber of the man was apparent" and that McCain is "capable of leading the country at a dangerous hour."
More: "For him, national security is not just another agenda item. It is the abiding concern and responsibility of the nation."
Romney said McCain has "served and suffered for his country." "With their rhetoric, our Democratic opponents are very skilled at striking heroic poses but ... we're going to offer them the real thing."
McCain desperately needed Romney's nod to start to quiet a rowdy religious right still attempting to buck his now inevitable nom. Interestingly, the AZ senator said he would "have Gov. Romney and members of his team at my side." He thanked Romney for the "hard, intensive, honorable campaign he ran," saying the former MA guv "helped me become a better candidate."
"I look forward to campaigning with Gov. Romney, and I look forward to his continued very important role of leadership in our party that he has exercised in the past and will exercise even more so in the future," McCain said.
He added: "Now we move forward together for the good of our party and the nation."
Campaigning together. Sharing staff. Watch out, Mike Huckabee. Seems like there's a new veep wannabe in town.
Hillary Clinton wished her traveling press corps a '"Happy Valentine's Day" and handed out chocolates on the plane today in Vienna, before taking off to a stop in Dayton, OH.
"I apologize to all of you who are not spending Valentine's Day with your significant others," she said.
Clinton said she had received chocolates and a dozen roses from Bill and talked to him this morning. She said they had spent almost every Valentine's Day together.
She then surprised everyone, by speaking with the girlfriends of the CBS embed Fernando Suarez and Politico's Ken Vogel, after asking the reporters to call the women on their cell phones.
Suarez's girlfriend was sick and Clinton told her she had something that "just won't go away either", it just hangs on and hangs on.
She then spoke with Vogel's girlfriend and ended by saying "Happy Valentine's Day...forging ahead here."
This wasn't Clinton's first foray into feeding the reporters covering her campaign. Before Super Tuesday, on a flight from Little Rock, the senator served peach cobbler to reporters.
Barack Obama answers Hillary Clinton's ad accusing him of dodging a WI debate with an ad of his own asserting that she's practicing "the same old politics of phony charges and false attacks." Obama notes in the spot that the candidates have debated 18 times, with two more events on the calendar. They've only faced off once, however, one-on-one.
Mitt Romney will endorse John McCain this afternoon in Boston and ask his delegates to support the AZ Sen, according to Romney spokesman Kevin Madden.
"Governor Romney made his decision to endorse today in the interest of helping Senator McCain gain the delegates he needed to secure the party nomination and unite the party for the general election against the Democrats in November," Madden told On Call.
MILWAUKEE, Wisc. - Bill Clinton said today that the delegates won by his wife in the penalized state of Florida should count towards the final score leading into the convention. In making his case, the former prez said "the Republicans set the date" in Florida and that "we had nothing to do with it."
During a morning rally in chilly Milwaukee, Clinton also noted -- an obvious reference to Barack Obama -- that he doesn't have a whole lot of patience for "the excitement of the new."
"This really is a choice between the excitement of the new and a lifetime of empowerment of other people," Clinton said before a crowd of 300. "This really is a choice between the inspiration of speeches and the profound inspiration of solutions."
The former president also reiterated his wife's assertion that she is "in the solutions business" and said that her supporters are those who take threats to America's domestic and foreign policies seriously. The choice between Democratic candidates "depends on how serious you think these economic problems are, and how serious you think these international problems are," he added.
Clinton made his remarks as Hillary Clinton's campaign retools after eight straight primary and caucus losses to Obama.
Former RI Sen. Lincoln Chafee endorsed Barack Obama today, telling reporters on a conference call that he promised the candidate: "Anything he wanted I would do for him."
Chafee said that Obama's opposition to the war ulimately swayed his decision. He also said he thinks Obama will do well in the state's March 4 primary because RI boasts a lot of Indy voters.
"I think momentum is in Sen. Obama’s favor right now," Chafee said.
DAYTON, Ohio -- Don't be mistaken: Chelsea Clinton hopes her mother returns to the White House. She just thinks she's too old to live with her parents again.
"Sometimes people ask me if I want to move back to my old room," Chelsea playfully told an audience at Sinclair Community College in Dayton yesterday. "One, I don't see past March 4th. I don't take anything for granted. … And two, I'm 27. I love my parents a lot. But I don't want to move back in with them."
Chelsea had been asked about the challenges of once again being involved in the presidential campaign of one of her parents. Earlier, she had mentioned that she did have a private life working and living in New York. "At least did until about five weeks ago," she said. "Yet I do believe this is the most important election of my lifetime. And I believe so strongly in my mom. Not only is there anyone that I love and respect more, but I've seen her work on these issues my whole life, and that's why I'm here."
Last night's TV coverage mainly focused on Roger Clemens' testimony and WH '08.
Mike Huckabee was on the "O'Reilly Factor":
Huckabee, on VA: "We had a good night in the sense that we won everything outside the beltway. We didn't think we'd win the beltway. I mean, that's John McCain's territory, but we're winning the heartland. And that's why we're in Wisconsin. It's why we're going to compete here. Our game plan is to continue showing that people in places like Wisconsin and Texas and Ohio, they ought to have a choice and they ought to have a voice" (FNC, 2/13).
The tone of this afternoon's call with Clinton advisers Penn/Wolfson/Cecil was unusually grim following HRC’s 2/12 walloping. The day's spin -- that all delegates matter and should be counted, superdelegates, too -- seemed to ignore the contest's current trendlines and the deep hunger many voters have expressed for a new kind of politics.
"We don't make distinctions between certain kinds of delegates," Wolfson emphasized.
Well, that's nice that you guys don't make distinctions. But the difference between the two categories of delegates is becoming ever clearer to voters. Last night, Gov. Eliot Spitzer, an HRC supporter, was on The Colbert Report, of all shows, explaining to the show's younger audience that superdelegates (who he joked don’t wear capes and tights) are a legit part of the process.
Prominent Dems (see Donna Brazile) have said, of course, that allowing a final decision on the nom to be made by a cabal of governors, members of Congress and party hangers-on would be not just bad for the Dems' populist message but a knock on democracy.
So having lost eight straight primaries and caucuses, here is HRC’s team still hammering home that they can claim victory on the backs of these super special delegates, who were not created to break a tie between two mainstream candidates but to prevent a fringe operator from stealing the nom.
Today’s call made me wonder for the first time: Is this all the Clinton team has left to peddle? That with some creative math, she's still the likely nom.
Sure, technically speaking, by adding in those superdelegates the contest is tight. And with contests pending in WI, TX, OH and PA, there are still enough delegates in play, (should Clinton win big in those states). But cosmically, the HRC team line -- superdelegates or bust -- feels out of touch with the already expressed desires of those voters turning to Obama. Obfuscation is out in 2008.
Obama last night in Madison, Wisc., touched on the very matter that the Clinton folks seem to be missing: “We can’t keep playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and somehow expect a different result – because it’s a game that ordinary Americans are losing. We are going to put this game to an end.”
Why wouldn’t Clinton, potentially faced with an uphill climb, try the unexpected – even if it’s politically risky? She could say, ‘We’re going to fight hard in these upcoming primaries, we are going to make our case for my experience and judgment and proposals, and we’ll let the voters decide. Superdelegates, be damned, let’s take them off the table. This election is about you.’
Maybe that move, of all her campaign’s machinations, would inspire a second look from voters. Winning at all cost can never really be winning if the hearts of the people are lost in the process.
Clintonista Guy Cecil predicted today that his candidate will be within 25 delegates of rival Barack Obama after the March 4 primaries.
On a conference call with reporters, Cecil said that counting all delegates, supers and not, they expect Clinton to be "in a virtual tie" with Obama, post WI, OH, TX.
"This does not include Florida and Michigan, where we won whose delegates we think should be counted at the convention," he added.
Cecil said Team HRC is opening offices and hiring staff in all the remaining primary and caucus states. Puerto Rico, too. The trio pushed the retooled Clinton message ... that she's in the "solutions" business, not the "promises" business. And they said -- in keeping with their new WI ad -- that the people of the Badger State deserve to see the candidates debate.
"What you have to ask is, 'Why Sen. Obama is hiding from the people of Wisconsin?'" said adviser Howard Wolfson.
Can someone be qualified without having experience? Can someone have experience but not be qualified?
One of the recurring themes during the democratic primary struggle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has been experience. Exit polls show voters buy the argument that Clinton has it and Obama lacks it. Where Clinton has struggled, however, is on converting this trend into votes.
Just look at the breakdown from two exit poll questions which have been asked repeatedly throughout the primary season:
"Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today?" To which respondents selected one of these answers: can bring about needed change, cares about people like me, has the right experience and has the best chance to win in November.
And, "Regardless of how you voted today, which one of these candidates do you think is most qualified to be commander in chief?" To which respondents chose among the active candidates.
Among those voters who say "has the right experience" is the most important quality they look for in a candidate, Clinton repeatedly thumps Obama. Nevertheless, Obama consistently does better when it comes to who is more qualified to be President (table below).
Could this be the ultimate manifestation of their respective pre-war stances on invading Iraq? Democrats recognize her experience, yet believe he has the judgment necessary to lead?
WASHINGTON -- One day after John McCain successfully swept primaries in MD, VA, and DC, manager Rick Davis directed his attention to potential Dem rival Barack Obama, telling a group of journalists over lunch today that “hope has to be defined by something.”
Perhaps following McCain's lead from the night before -- when the candidate inferred that Obama's rhetoric "is not a promise of hope," it's "a platitude" -- Davis argued that "hope has to come in some form."
Davis took pains to insist that the camp is "still very much in primary mode," but the scribes gathered at the St. Regis Hotel pressed him to explain how McCain would run against Obama.
More Davis, on Obama's call to withdraw troops and more generally on the Dems proclivity for raising taxes: "If these are the things you would define hope as, we're gonna argue hope. ... Hope has to be defined by something. ... If he wants to run on empathy, great."
Davis also commented about Obama being ranked by National Journal (full disclosure, NJ is Hotline's parent co.) as the most liberal senator: "I don't know if all 17,000 people who were in his audience last night know that. ... But they will." He also made it clear that he believes McCain can easily compete with Obama's message of change, saying of McCain: "Nobody has been a bigger catalyst for change."
Davis also said his campaign is happy to have Mike Huckabee in the contest for as long as Huck wants to run. "Governor Huckabee's campaign is perfectly fine with us. ... If we didn't have an opponent, we probably wouldn't be on the front page of the newspapers."
Last night, however, Davis was hardly so welcoming, writing in a memo: "For Governor Huckabee to reach the 1,191 delegate threshold, he needs an additional 950 delegates -- more than remain available in future contests."
Davis said the camp hopes to "lock up the nomination on the fourth," when TX, OH, VT, and RI will hold their primaries. And while Davis described the TX demographic -- heavy on evangelicals -- as a "hurdle," he said it was "no more than a hurdle than California; no more of a hurdle than Virginia." He did, however, cite two factors that "intimidated" him about campaigning in TX: the size of the state, and the cost to campaign there.
"We're still a budget campaign,” he said. “ ... The reason I'm here is I heard there was a free lunch."
And on a more serious note, Davis said: "We've got to get the Republican Party excited about this candidacy." And with the fight for the Dem nod continuing to rage on, and media attention focused elsewhere, his candidate just may have the time to do so [MAURA O'BRIEN].
In the light of day, some analysis of last night's MD and VA exit polls …
-- Did they come out just for him? Exit polls show that the less often 2/12 Dem primary voters had gone to the polls in the past, the more likely they were to vote for Barack Obama yesterday. Obama beat Hillary Clinton among those voters who had previously voted in a presidential primary MD 56-39%/VA 62-37%, those who had previously voted but never in a primary MD 65-32%/VA 66-33% and those who had never voted before MD 70-30%/VA 72-28%.
-- Did Rush Limbaugh cut John McCain'sVA victory to single digits? Mike Huckabee won VA GOP voters who frequently listen to conservative talk radio 51-36%, while McCain prevailed among all other groups. He took occasional listeners 50-38% (29% of voters), won 56-36% among those who rarely listen (22% of voters) and finished 58-36% among those who never listen (18% of voters). In MD, however, where McCain won by more than 25% of the vote, all of these demographics broke his way; McCain took frequent listeners 49-28 (28% of voters), occasional listeners 56-29% (32% of voters), those who listen rarely 57-33% (20% of voters) and those who never listen 62-26% (19% of voters).
-- Is Obama making inroads in the Hispanic/Latino community on the eve of the Texas primary? Although they comprised just 5% of Dem primary voters, Obama won Hispanics/Latinos 54-46% in VA, but lost them 55-45% in MD. VA marked only the third '08 primary contest (where data is available) in which Obama carried Hispanics/Latinos; he previously won them 53-43% in CT (6% of voters) and 50-49% in his home state of IL, where they represent 17% of voters.
-- A manager, not a leader? Given the choice of Huckabee, McCain, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, 26% of VA GOP voters and 27% of MD GOP voters chose Romney as the most qualified candidate to manage the economy, despite the fact that he suspended his campaign nearly a week ago.
-- Did they like him before the media narrative came full circle? Thirty-four percent of MD GOP voters and 37% of VA GOP voters said they settled on their White House candidate more than a month ago, groups which broke 49-26% and 49-37%, respectively, for McCain.
My friend and former colleague, Balt Sun columnist Laura Vozzella, had this interesting item in the paper today ... Seems Bo Harmon, who managed Saxby Chambliss' successful campaign against then-GA Sen. Max Cleland, is John McCain's national political director. And just a reminder, in case anyone's forgotten, that Chambliss ran an ad questioning Cleland's patriotism. Oh, and one more thing, Vozzella writes, it seems McCain was highly critical of that ad and the campaign ... Read on.
McCain's visit brought Bo Harmon back to town. Ehrlich's former campaign manager is McCain's national political director.
Ehrlich created a bit of a stir by hiring Harmon, who in 2002 had run Saxby Chambliss' upset campaign against then-Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia. The Chambliss campaign ran a TV ad questioning the courage of the Vietnam vet and triple amputee.
Among those who objected to the ad: a certain senator from Arizona. "Worse than disgraceful," McCain called it.
Either McCain is over it, or he doesn't blame Harmon for the spot. Tom Perdue, Chambliss' media consultant and strategist, told The Gazette back in 2005 (when Ehrlich had just hired Harmon) that Harmon bore no responsibility - for the ad, or practically anything else.
"The heaviest thing he [Harmon] had to do was buy the peppermint candy to fill the bowl at the front of the office," Perdue told the paper.
David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this a.m. on a conference call that Hillary Clinton would have to win landslide victories in upcoming primary contests to seize the nomination.
"The only way that she can overcome this pledged delegates lead is to win most of the remaining delegate contests in blowout form," he said. "... We see no evidence that that's going to happen. ... The math is the math."
Relishing Obama's wins in eight straight primaries and caucuses, Plouffe said HRC would have to score 20-point margins in WI, OH, TX and PA to land enough pledged delegates to catch up. If she wins narrow victories, Obama would continue to amass delegates and still have an edge.
Plouffe said Clinton hasn't provden so far that she's capable of blowout victories; she only won Florida and Michigan by significant margins, and as we know, Obama didn't campaign in the former and wasn't on the ballot in the latter.
As questions continue to percolate in punditland about the intentions of the 796 superdelegates, Plouffe said he expects "the pledged delegates situation to drive events."
"We have always believed that the pledged delegates leader is going to be the nom of the party," he said. "At the end of the day, I think it's more likely than not that the superdelegates ratify that outcome."
No one doubts, of course, that Maryland and Washington, D.C., will be solid blue come November. But, Virginia, a state that gave Pres. Bush 54% in '04, is looking less red these days. In the last three elections ('05, '06 and '07), Virginia voters have elected a Dem Gov. (Tim Kaine), a Dem Sen. (Jim Webb), and a Democratic controlled state senate. But, turn-out for the 2/12 primary also confirmed that Republicans shouldn't consider Virginia's 13 electoral votes to be in the bank.
Let's take a look. In MD, Dems outnumbered GOPers nearly 3:1 and DC Dems outnumbered GOPers nearly 20:1. But in Virginia, nearly 1 million voters cast Democratic ballots on Tuesday, more than twice the number who voted in the GOP primary.
Score another one for the challengers. In MD-01, state Sen. Andy Harris (R) defeated Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R) and state Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R) 44-32-21%. Some conservatives feared that the crowded ballot would split the conservative vote and give the plurality to the moderate Gilchrest, but those fears were put to rest with Harris' convincing victory.
Gilchrest has survived several close-call primaries before against more-conservative GOP challengers, but his luck ran out tonight. He met his match in the extremely well-funded and Club for Growth-backed Harris. Even though Pipkin's entrance into the race muddled the field a bit, in the end, Harris could fight off the attacks coming to him from his left and right with his $1M+ warchest.
While his lead has dwindled, state Sen. Andy Harris' (R) has never lost it, and he currently leads by a comfortable margin over Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R) in MD-04. With 74% of the precincts reporting, Harris has a 6% lead, 41-35%, over Gilchrest. State Sen. E.J. Pipkin (R) trails with 21%.
We'll keep you posted on this race in the a.m. [TIM SAHD]
It's all over but the crying in MD-04. With 49% of the precincts reporting, '06 nominee Donna Edwards (D) is blowing out Rep. Al Wynn (D-MD 04), 60-36%.
Edwards and her allies, including EMILY's List and the SEIU, pounded Wynn on ethics issues, the Iraq war and the lagging housing market. Wynn had the help of the Dem Cong. leadership and the CBC, but didn't have the kind of wide-ranging backing Edwards enjoyed.
In the end, it may have been Edwards' omnipresence on TV that enabled her to harness today's Barack Obama voters and make them Edwards voters. They are a natural constituency for her message of "change," and the paid media helped direct those voters her way. Last week, Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL 03) faced a challenger who also ran on a "change" theme, but didn't have the money to run ads on broadcast TV. Lipinski won in a walk, in part because the influx of casual voters for Obama voted for the known quantity -- Lipinski -- over the candidate they may have been more in line with.
After Wynn's close call in '06, he tried to improve his image. He called his vote authorizing the use of force in Iraq a mistake, and signed on with Dennis Kucinich's call for VP Cheney's impeachment. He also tried to improve his constituent services operation. But primaries are all about the incumbents, and Edwards hammered him on his weak spots, and she was successful. [TIM SAHD]
Buoyed by eight straight victories since Super Tuesday, including a sweep tonight of the Potomac primaries, Barack Obama appeared to turn his attention this evening to the general election. Speaking in Madison, WI to a massive crowd, he sounded an oh-so familiar note of confidence, acting as though he'd finally cleared the deck. It reminded us of ... Hillary Clinton, circa fall 2007, when she deigned to debate her Dem rivals but stuck to a general election, anti GOP message all the while.
"I just want to say that you have lifted my spirits," Obama said this evening. "We have now won east and west, north and south, and across the heartland of this country that we love."
Obama said his campaign has "given young people a reason to believe" and brought the "young at heart" back to the polls.
"This is what change looks like when it happens from the bottom up," he added.
Obama went after McCain tonight, saying the likely Repub nom is "an American hero," and that "we honor his service ... But his priorities don't address the problems of the American people." And seeking to link McCain with President Bush, he reminded voters of the AZ senator's support for the Iraq war and Bush's tax cuts. Bush, Obama said to his audience's great cheer, will not be on the ballot in November.
In the state where the progressive movement was born, Obama said that when he is the nominee, he will offer a "clear choice."
MD GOP exit polls posted by CNN showJohn McCain leading Mike Huckabee 54-28% among men, who represented 49% of primary voters. McCain also leads 55-30% among women.
Exit polls also show:
-- McCain leading 56-29% among registered GOPers (80% of voters) and 49-24% among registered Inds (18% of voters).
-- Huckabee leads 52-35% among Born-Again/Evangelical Christians (35% of voters), while McCain leads all others 66-17%.
-- 43% of voters believe McCain is not conservative enough, while 45% say he is about right. McCain meanwhile leads 43-36% among conservatives (62% of voters).
-- Huckabee leading 49-26% on shares my values, which 40% of voters said was the most important quality they sought in a candidate.
-- 56% of voters believe abortion should be illegal, a group which McCain leads 42-39%.
-- 77% of voters believe McCain is the GOP candidate most likely to beat the Dem nominee and 64% say he is most qualified to be commander-in-chief.
-- McCain leads 44-26% among those voters most concerned with illegal immigration (22% of voters), Iraq 64-24% (21% of voters), economy 55-32% (38% of voters) and terrorism 62-27% (16% of voters).
-- 39% of voters believe illegal immigrants should be deported, a group which broke 48-31% for McCain.
-- McCain leads Huckabee 53-27% in Suburban Baltimore, 60-27% in D.C. Suburbs and 56-31% in the rest of the state.
Celebrating his wins in DC, MD and VA tonight, John McCain let loose on his presumed (hoped for?) general election foe. His speech, however, was delayed 20 minutes, while the networks ran Barack Obama's remarks live from Madison, Wisc. And Team McCain was forced to wait on stage -- his entire VA leadership crew that is -- while Obama wrapped it up in.
Meanwhile, check this: McCain spoke to a ballroom of about 225 people; Obama filled the Kohl Center, capacity 17,000.
Here's that "hope" riff ...
"Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing," McCain said. "I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men's hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. And I stood astonished at the resilience of their hope in the darkest of hours because it did not reside in an exaggerated belief in their individual strength, but in the support of their comrades, and their faith in their country. My hope for our country resides in my faith in the American character, the character which proudly defends the right to think and do for ourselves, but perceives self-interest in accord with a kinship of ideals, which, when called upon, Americans will defend with their very lives.
"To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude."
McCain closed with another slam on his potential Dem rival.
"I will fight every moment of every day for what I believe is right for this country, and I will not yield," he said. "And, my friends, I promise you, I am fired up and ready to go."
MD Dem exit polls posted by CNN showBarack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 67-31% among men, who made up 38% of primary voters. Among women, Obama leads Clinton 59-38%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leads 51-46% among whites (53% of voters), while Obama leads 88-11% among blacks (37% of voters) and 53-47% among hispanics/latinos (4% of voters).
-- Obama leads 54-44% among white men (20% of voters), 89-9% among black men (15% of voters) and 88-11% among black women (22% of voters). Clinton, however, leads 55-42% among white women (34% of voters).
-- Obama leads 68-29% among 17-29 year olds, 71-27% among 30-44, 62-37% among 45-59 and 50-46% among 60+.
-- Obama leads Clinton in Baltimore City 77-19%, Suburban Baltimore 62-35%, D.C. Suburbs 65-33% and 52-46% in the rest of the state.
-- Obama leads among those most concerned with the economy 63-34% (49% of voters), Iraq 65-32% (30% of voters) and health care 57-42% (20% of voters).
-- Obama leads 62-37% among registered Dems (85% of voters) and 68-24% among registered Inds (13% of voters).
-- Obama leads on change 84-14%, cares about people 67-29% and electability 57-40%. Clinton meanwhile leads on experience 91-6%.
As polls closed in MD, the nets called it for Barack Obama and John McCain. MD's black, affluent and well-educated population likely delivered for Obama. Both candidates scored huge margins. MD offers 99 delegates ...
Early MD exit polls posted by CNN show Obama leading Clinton 62-35% among Dems. Among GOPers, McCain leads Huckabee 55-29%.
CNN's Blitzer: "Hillary Clinton is not doing well at all in these states, not in VA, not in MD" (CNN).
CNN's Cooper: "Momentum is with Barack Obama, and that's a hard thing to stop. Can she stop it in Texas?"
NJ/NBC's Athena Jones obtained Mike Henry's 2/12 1etter of resignation:
Hi everyone.
I just wanted to let you know about a decision I've made. Yesterday I made the decision to leave the campaign. Out of respect for Maggie and her new leadership team I thought it was the best thing to do.
Speaking to her "El Paso family" just now, it didn't take long for Hillary Clinton to toss out a Texasism or two.
Clinton: "There's a great saying in Texas, all hat and no cattle. Well, after seven years of George Bush, we need a lot less hat and a lot more cattle."
(Just wondering: Was she really talking about Bush here, or Barack Obama?).
More Clinton: "Texas needs a president who actually understands what it's going to stake to turn the economy around, to get universal health care, to save hard-working homes from foreclosure. We've got a lot of work to do!"
Understandably, just as she did after her SC drubbing while speaking 1/26 in TN, Clinton didn't mention tonight's primary results in her TX remarks.
“There was nothing in this speech, nor did we really expect anything in this speech, that suggested that anything happened tonight in the greater District of Columbia area” – MSNBC’s Olbermann, on HRC’s strategy of “not referencing something that you don’t like.”
OLD TOWN, ALEXANDRIA, Va. -- Rep. Tom Davis, a John McCain supporter, told reporters tonight that Mike Huckabee "ran a very strong race in the rural areas" and that he owes his solid performance in VA to those voters.
“That’s Gov. Huckabee’s natural constituency,” he said, adding, “Gov. Huckabee gave it his best shot in VA.”.
Davis also said that McCain is going to build his campaign on Indy voters, a sign, perhaps, that Team McCain is looking to squash all talk of conservatives' dissatisfaction with him as the nom once and for all.
"That’s where the senator is going to put a lot of his energy,” Davis said.
Sure enough, that's the only constituency where McCain doesn't need to devote time and energy. He does well with Indy voters. No matter how hard Davis spins, McCain's going to have to build a following among GOPers -- and a bridge to their leaders.
So far, it looks like McCain's doing better in VA with registered Republicans. Could this be the night he wins a primary AND scores with GOP voters?
In a statement tonight, McCain camp mgr Rick Davis congratulated Mike Huckabee on his "strong showing" in VA, but insisted that John McCain "will be the Republican nominee."
More: "He will continue to campaign hard in the coming contests across the country and unify the Republican Party for victory in November."
"John McCain will continue to run on his core conservative principles. The stakes could not be higher in this election, and John McCain will contrast his vision for America with that of Senators Clinton and Obama. He will draw sharp contrasts: victory versus surrender to radical Islamic extremism; lower taxes and spending versus more big government; free-market solutions to health care versus costly mandates; and the appointment of strict constructionist judges versus those who legislate from the bench."
ALEXANDRIA, Va. -- At a polling station here today, the GOP poll worker sat quietly, her eyes glazed over in boredom. A minute later she got up to relieve her Dem counterpart, who faced a steady line throughout the day.
The poll workers' dilemma at Blessed Sacrament Catholic Church helps explain, in part, why John McCain struggled to defeat Mike Huckabee in VA. VA has an open primary system. According the poll workers in Alexandria, voters “choosing” the GOP primary were few and far between. The fact is unsurprising given it was Dem-heavy-Alexandria. But the scenario seems indicative of a larger trend in the state indicating that center-right, more independent GOPers — aka reliable McCain voters -- "crossed over" to vote in the Dem primary.
This, combined with the fact that, according to exit polls, conservatives made up a significantly larger portion of VA primary voters, helps explain the surprisingly close GOP contest in the state today. [NORA McALVANAH].
A quick look at (almost complete) results from two Northern Virginia suburban counties should give strength to Barack Obama's argument that he is the stronger candidate v. John McCain in November.
Not surprisingly, Obama crushed Hillary Clinton in liberal Arlington County. But, he also looks to beat her soundly in more exurban (and GOP leaning) Prince Wiliam County. These exurbs were responsible for Gov. Tim Kaine's victory in his '07 contest. More important, the fact that McCain's margin of victory in Prince William dropped dramatically from his margin in Arlington, suggests that independents were defecting to Obama, leaving a more conservative (and Mike Huckabee friendly) Republican vote behind.
Nets call VA for McCain, "narrowly beating Huckabee," said CNN's Blitzer.
"Mike Huckabee showing surprising strength in a state a lot of people thought McCain would win decisively. ... A winner take all state," Blitzer adds.
Mac scored VA's 63 delegates.
Meanwhile, Dana Bash's streak lives on ...
CNN’s Bash, at the McCain party in Alexandria: “They were worried all night about this particular race. … He needed to win very, very big in order for this sense of momentum to continue.”
The Fix's Cillizzareports that dep Clinton camp mgr Mike "Skip Iowa" Henry has resigned.
Henry tendered his resignation 2/11 a.m., but he worked the last two days on a volunteer basis. His departure is not entirely unexpected, as he was brought into the campaign by Patti Solis Doyle, who stepped down 2/10.
Henry, as many remember, was responsible for writing a memo that was leaked last summer suggesting that the Clinton campaign bypass IA. Solis Doyle, meanwhile, was criticized for spending too much money on the Hawkeye State. (AMY WALTER)
With 23% of VA precincts reporting, CNN shows Obama leading Clinton 61-38% among Dems. Among GOPers, McCain leads Huckabee 47-45%.
Karl Rove, on Obama's "big, decisive victory" in VA: "Virginia alone could wipe out [HRC's delegate lead]. ... The more I look at Texas, the more worried I'd be if I were Hillary Clinton." (FNC).
MSNBC calls DC for Barack Obama; McCain vs. Huck remains too close to call.
CNN's Blitzer: "None of the news organizations did the so-called exit polling" in DC. So we're "going to have do it the old-fashioned way" and wait for actual results.
Meanwhile, DC Mayor Adrian Fenty, an Obama supporter, said the voting lines throughout DC are “unbelievable” (MSNBC).
The latest VA GOP exit polls show Mike Huckabee leading John McCain 46-45%. Huckabee now leads McCain 47-45% among registered GOPers. Among registered Inds, Huckabee leads McCain 43-34%, with Ron Paul at 19%.
"I think he hit every church in Virginia. He thinks he can pull off a miracle." -- CNN's Donna Brazile tonight on Huck.
CNN’s J. King, on the VA GOP side not being called yet: “It’s a reminder of the struggle within the McCain campaign. Are they running a Republican primary against Mike Huckabee or are they transitioning to a national campaign?”
If he loses VA tonight, will McCain have to give back the crown?
Has Barack Obama made a breakthrough among white men? In Arkansas, Hillary Clinton won this demographic 71-24%; in Tennessee, she carried the group 58-32%.
But tonight in Virginia, Obama leads Clinton among white men 55-43%. White men represented 34% of AR, 29% of TN and 28% of VA Dem primary voters.
MD extends voting until 9:30 p.m. ET due to inclement weather (cold, hard rain) causing traffic (slippery roads) across the region ... The WaPoexplains.
VA Dem exit polls posted by CNN show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 58-42% among women, who made up 56% of primary voters. Obama leads 65-34% among men.
Exit polls also show:
-- 30% of voters had never voted in a primary election before, a group which Obama leads 62-37%.
-- Obama leads 66-33% among registered Inds (21% of voters), 59-41% among registered Dems (71% of voters) and 70-26% among registered GOPers (8% of voters).
-- Clinton leads among whites 51-48% (63% of voters) and Obama leads among blacks 90-10% (29% of voters).
-- Obama leads among white men 55-43%, black men 93-7% and black women 88-12%. Clinton leads among white women 58-42%.
-- Obama leads 80-20% among 17-29 year olds (11% of voters), 67-32% among 30-44 (25% of voters), 58-42% among 45-59 (35% of voters) and 52-47% among those 60 and older (28% of voters).
-- Clinton leads 61-38% among whites 60 or older (20% of voters) and 55-45% among whites 45-59 (23% of voters).
-- Obama leads 63-36% in Northern VA, 67-33% in Southeastern VA and 62-37% in Eastern VA/Richmond, while Clinton leads 56-44% in Western VA.
-- Obama leads among those most concerned with the economy 60-39% (48% of voters), Iraq 65-35% (31% of voters) and health care 55-45% (16% of voters).
-- Obama leads on change 84-16%, cares about people 67-33% and electability 67-32%. Clinton meanwhile leads on experience 96-4%.
-- 85% of voters said the U.S. is ready to elect a black POTUS and 85% said hte U.S. is ready to elect a woman POTUS.
VA GOP exit polls posted by MSNBC show McCain leading Huckabee 50-36% among men, who made up 52% of primary voters. Huckabee, however, leads 47-43% among women.
Exit polls also show:
-- 74% of GOP primary voters were registered Republicans, a group which McCain leads 47-45%. Among the 22% Independents, McCain also leads, 38-35%.
-- Huckabee leads among conservatives (68% of voters), 51-35%, while McCain leads 67-26% among moderates (26% of voters).
-- Evangelical/Born-Again Christians comprised 46% of GOP primary voters and went 58-30% for Huckabee. All others went 56-29% for McCain.
-- 62% of VAans frequently or occasionally listen to conservative talk radio, a group which Huckabee leads 48-38%.
Barack Obama takes VA at top of the hour ... (mult.)
FNC's Major Garrett says the Obama camp would like to see a victory "so big" tonight that they "wouldn't have to spin it, the results would speak for themselves."
More Major: "It would be very, very difficult for Hillary Clinton to claim a moral victory if she loses in VA by more than 15 points to Obama. ... It's going to be a very difficult night for the Clinton campaign."
CNN’s Bill Schneider: “A very substantial Southern white vote for Barack Obama -- that is something of a break through. … Barack Obama carrying women is another break through. ... Most striking he's splitting the white vote in Virginia with Hillary Clinton."
“Trust me, I certainly don’t look at the exit polling” – Obama supporter/Sen./pres.-for-an-hour John Kerry (D-MA), when asked what resources he uses to monitor the results (MSNBC).
This dispatch comes from NJ/NBC's Carrie Dann as she sits in the parking lot that is inbound 395:
Tonight's traffic in the DC metro area is among the worst that I, as a lifetime native of the DC area, can remember. Icy ramps and Beltway bumper cars have left some folks trying to leave DC so hopeless that they have literally turned off their cars due to motionless gridlock on southbound highways. It could conceivably take some Virginians three to four hours to make it home from DC.
Why is this worth pointing out (other than to complain)?
Hillary Clinton was hoping for a strong showing among federal workers with fond memories of her husband's admin. (B. Clinton has even specifically shouted out to that group in his DC-area speeches this week). A lot of those who are bureaucrats by day and NoVa residents by night, however, aren't going to get home before polls close. Folks who left their DC offices at five thought they'd have plenty of time to pull the lever before dinnertime. Not so.
In other words, it might be that a lot of Hillary votes are going to end up on 95 South.
John McCain was asked last week if, like his former colleague, 1996 GOP presidential nom Bob Dole, he would resign from the Senate to devote himself to his White House bid. His non-answer answer, offered Feb. 6 on a flight from Phoenix to DC, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy:
"Obviously I'd like to see if we get the nomination first, but in Dole's case he was the Republican leader, he wasn't just a Republican senator. When you're the Republican leader you've got – you know you really got – it's a long day every day. So I understand why he did it.
"I remember discussing it with him and frankly I recommended that he not do it at that time although I didn't have to keep his schedule, because he always had a forum when he was Republican leader and he lost that forum, but I think he felt he couldn't do justice to his job.
"I think it's very different when you're the leader, but we'll – if I get the nomination we'll figure that out. "
NOTE this comment from a reader, Kevin: "It's doubtful that he would resign, as Janet Napolitano would likely appoint a Democrat to replace him."
Endorsing Barack Obama, WI Gov. Jim Doyle said in a conference call today with reporters that Obama's ability to campaign in every state in the country was a key reason for his support.
In an open swipe at Hillary Clinton, Doyle criticized them for not competing in Wisconsin, saying that voters here wanted to make an informed choice about the candidates and Clinton's decision not to campaign there for the first part of this coming week deprived voters of that opportunity. (Bill Clinton's schedule indicates that he is heading to the Badger State Thursday and is expected to stump in Milwaukee, Madison and La Crosse.)
Doyle also warned that should Clinton not compete in WI but win the nomination, she would be at a disadvantage because John Kerry and Al Gore each won the state by slim margins of only a few thousand votes.
Doyle's criticism of Clinton, made in the same breath where he called her the "incumbent in this contest," appeared to be an obvious attempt to set the bar low for Obama. Doyle also pointed to the fact that Bill Clinton had carried the state in 1992 and 1996.
The attempt to lower expectations was also evidenced by Plouffe who claimed that the campaign did not factor in momentum as part of a winning strategy. Plouffe said that the key to success in WI and later in OH and TX would be face-to-face interactions between Obama and voters. The slower schedule provides them, he added, with ample opportunity to build familiarity with the candidate.
Plouffe also pointed to the need for face time with voters as the reason for not having a debate in Wisconsin this week, a request that had been made by the Clinton campaign.
WASHINGTON -- Participating this morning in the Christian Science Monitor's breakfast series, Gov. Mike Huckabee weighed in on his Democratic rivals, saying that Hillary Clinton is struggling to connect with voters because the country is looking for a candidate with a “longer vision.”
"People underestimated Barack Obama, and his capacity to inspire," Huckabee said. "I think [in] bringing a different kind of dialogue to the race, he has energized an enormous level of the electorate, not only within the Democratic Party, but I think in the general population as well."
Huckabee said Clinton is the "more focused of the two," but that voters are gravitating toward Obama as the “new and fresh” candidate.
"Voters ultimately, when they think about a leader, are not necessarily thinking about somebody who can fix the carburetor, as much as it is they want somebody who can drive the car and describe the destination as a place they want to go. That's where I think Obama has had the distinct advantage."
Huckabee said Obama is the "inspirational" candidate, but added that his inexperience could be seen as a weakness.
"Either candidate the Democrats put forth, there's going to be a clear contrast and the Republicans are going to have a message," Huckabee added. "I think this idea that it's all cooked and that it's going to be a Democrat this year is nonsense."
Huckabee also touted the "civil" campaign he and John McCain have been running for the GOP. "I would hope [this civility] bodes well for the future of politics in general, but particularly Republican politics," Huckabee told reporters. "I'd like to believe that we are proving that a civil discourse and a campaign of ideas is possible without it being a demolition derby."
In what was perhaps another subtle clue he's got his eye on the veep spot, Huckabee played nice when asked about President Bush's recent endorsement of McCain. Huckabee said it he doesn't think it was an endorsement, as the president has been "very careful not to make an endorsement." Rather, Huckabee saw Bush's remarks as being in defense of McCain and attacks against his conservative credentials.
"In that same sentence, he was very quick to say, 'And then Mike Huckabee is also a very conservative and solid guy,’" Huck noted.
One thing Huckabee made very clear is his lack of a desire to run for the Senate against Sen. Mark Pryor this year.
"There is a greater chance that I would dye my hair green and get tattoos all over my body and do a rock tour with Amy Winehouse than there is for the Senate."
Barack Obama's wife, Michelle, is robocalling DC voters today, reminding them that the polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. and providing them with a toll free number to call to find out where they can vote.
"With Barack, we can unite this country," she says, adding, "Our moment is now."
DC Mayor Adrian Fenty has also been robocalling Washington voters on Obama's behalf.
Hillary Clinton's new health care focused spot; her first in WI. The state votes 2/19. Barack Obama heads there today, even before votes in MD/VA/DC are counted ...
On the eve of the Potomac primary, DC Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton, also a superdelegate, endorsed Barack Obama late last night. In a statement, released by the Obama campaign, she said she believes that the superdelegates should get behind the candidate ultimately supported by the majority of voters. She also said Obama is a candidate right our of "central casting." And she noted about her struggle in making up her mind between Obama and Hillary Clinton: "My own work for civil rights and feminist advances made this year’s choices a personal embarrassment of riches. However, I am confident in my choice."
On Obama: "He wouldn't have taken us down this path if he didn't think that he had a very good shot at it. And that's something that we talked about. I mean I looked at Barack as were making this decision and I said, do you think not only can you do this, but should you do this? And he looked me in the eye and he said, yes. He said I can be a good president."
On possibly being the next first lady: "I think wow, what an opportunity. What a platform that I'll have, potentially, to talk about a whole range of issues that could affect the country. What a privilege it will be to have the opportunity to speak to peoples' hearts, to be a part of moving this country in a different direction. So I try to embrace the exciting parts of it."
More: "We're not new to politics. We're new to the national scene, but Barack has been in the U.S. Senate for several years. He was in the state senate in Illinois for eight years."
M. Obama, asked about the competition: "I'm not thinking about Bill or Hillary. I'm not even thinking about Barack. I'm thinking about the people in front of me and what their pains the level of unfairness -- this gap of inequality that is happening with working folks out here, regular folks trying to make it. So with that, I don't have time to focus on the competition."
CNN's L. King: "When you were a small, little girl, wasn't it one of your dreams to see the first female president?"
M. Obama: "You know, I have to honestly say no. That's, you know, because that wasn't even a possibility for me. I mean the truth is, when I was a little girl, the thought of a woman or an African-American being president was the furthest thing from what could be possible. So it's only now that I am seeing, in this race, these two phenomenal candidates that I know, as some have said, that we now can move beyond those issues and we can go for who we think is the best candidate."
Asked about super delegates: "I think a lot of people, more and more, I'm hearing, that they don't want this race to be decided by super delegates. I mean they want the voters to decide" (CNN, 2/11).
That’s how many, mostly students, turned out at the University of Maryland’s Comcast Center today – and they weren’t there for an ACC championship match between the Terrapins and Duke Blue Devils. They showed up on a cold school day to see Barack Obama on this eve of the Potomac Primary, when MD, VA and DC voters head to the polls.
“The last thing we need is to have the same old cast of characters, doing the same old things ...” Obama said today as the screams and applause of the audience drowned out his voice.
Already, the pundits are predicting a sweep tomorrow for Obama over Hillary Clinton. They cite Mason Dixon surveys released Sunday that indicate he leads by 18 points in Maryland and 16 points in Virginia. The chattering class also notes, probably not unerringly, that the black populations of MD (29.5%), VA (20%) and DC (56.5%) could give Obama a boost. Meanwhile, Obama does well with affluent, highly educated voters of the kind found in Montgomery County and Northern Virginia.
But a victory here on the banks of the Potomac River, where the business of politics is done, won’t be the story of the day. Nor will the demographic causalities of that win necessarily provide deeper insight into all that’s driving this seemingly unending two-person nomination contest.
What we will know anew, perhaps, is that Obama is on a streak. A serious one. The kind that must be forcing young Democratic up and comers, like MD Gov. Martin O’Malley, who is supporting HRC, to wonder if they’ve backed the wrong candidate.
“This is a place where he should win,” Maryland Attorney Gen. Douglas F. Gansler, Obama’s MD co-chairman, told On Call in a recent interview. “These are smart people. Where there are smart people, he should win. I don’t think there’s much that can stop the tide right now.”
If Obama does come out on top of all three contests tomorrow, he will have scored eight of the last eight primaries and caucuses. And what’s on the horizon couldn’t be better tailored to his strengths: Hawaii and Wisconsin. He grew up in the former. The latter abuts his home state of Illinois and is home to a large state university.
Wins there would give him 10 in a row – and Clinton would have gone two weeks without a victory. In the meantime, we have learned that she dumped her campaign manager and longtime friend, Patti Solis Doyle, and loaned $5M to her campaign.
Not a good show, by anyone’s estimation.
But whether Obama’s movement -- which columnist Paul Krugman wrote in today’s New York Times is “dangerously close to becoming a cult of personality” -- is more than that, still, strangely, remains to be seen. Today indeed felt, as Obama’s rallies often do, like a party.
Anwan Glover, a star of The Wire, a stellar HBO series about the streets of Baltimore that has a cult following of its own, spoke early in the program. As attendees waited for the candidate to show, they did the wave. And this classic 1970 song by Stan Vincent, filled the room: “Ooh child, things are gonna get easier, Ooh child, things will be brighter … ” After taking the stage, Obama even thanked the DJ for his music.
It all feels so good. It does, there’s no denying it. The students left pumped. But as their tuition costs rise and federal aid falls off, as they enter a work world with stagnant wages and fewer available jobs, is their optimism false? Or is it ok to hope at all cost, no matter the work that lies ahead?
Maybe hope, once stirred, is more vital to this contest than the hopelessly undemocratic courting and counting of superdelegates.
Hillary Cinton and Barack Obama have agreed to participate in a debate in Texas sponsored by CNN, Univision and the Texas Democratic Party. The event will be held at the LBJ Library, Thursday, Feb. 21.
TX Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison endorsed John McCain tonight: "Senator McCain called me over the weekend and asked if I would campaign with him in Texas, and I am very pleased to do so. I think we can strengthen our Party and our ability to reach out to voters if we all come together as soon as possible to talk about what unites us and what we will do for America. I look forward to campaigning with Senator McCain in Texas so our voters get a chance to learn of his significant achievements for our country during his lifetime of service to our nation and his vision for a secure and thriving America for the future."
And then, we're guessing, Hutchison said: I have a little something to ask you, too, John. About that veep nod ...
The former Florida guv endorsed John McCain today, a move that tacitly extends the president's support, and likely Papa Bush's as well.
Jeb Bush in a statement released by McCain's campaign:
"John McCain is a patriot and devoted conservative leader," Bush said. "Like no other candidate in the field, John McCain has made tremendous sacrifices for this nation. He is beholden to no interest other than that of the public good. He is determined and steadfast in his commitment to reducing the burden of high taxes, restoring the people's trust in their government, and winning the war against radical Islamic extremists. It is with pride that I announce my endorsement of John McCain for president."
Here's a question -- In the tussle for independents that's bound to happen in the general, especially if Barack Obama is his party's nom and McCain runs for the GOP, is McCain hurt by a blessing from the Bush family?
Saturday's exit polls show a Democratic electorate in Louisiana that closely mirrored that in Georgia on 2/5 and South Carolina on 1/26.
Women made up 60% of LA primary voters, 63% of GA voters and 61% of SC voters; black women made up 30% of LA primary voters, 33% of GA voters and 35% of SC voters.
Whites represented 47% of LA Democratic voters, exactly four percent more than in both the SC and GA primaries. Black voters meanwhile made up just 48% of voters, down from 55% in SC and 51% in GA.
There were, however, a few noteworthy distinctions within the numbers:
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 58% of white votes on Saturday, up from her 53% share in GA and 36% showing in SC, perhaps due to the withdraw of former Sen. John Edwards from the race.
Among those voters who said the most important quality in a candidate is that he or she “cares about people like me,” Sen. Barack Obama and Clinton ran roughly even, a significant departure from the results in GA. These voters broke 47-42% for Obama-Clinton in LA, while in GA the same breakdown was 66-28%.
Although she still trailed Obama in the category, voters in LA believe Clinton is more qualified to be commander-in-chief than those in GA. Exit polls show voters favored Obama over Clinton 56-35% in GA, while those figures narrowed to 52-44% in LA. In GA, Edwards ranked third at 7%.
Finally, 24% of LA voters said the candidates' gender was important to their decision, and 25% said race was a factor; these figures were an increase from the reported 18% and 21% in GA respectively.
WHITE MARSH, MD -- One day before three primary contests her campaign has already said it expects her to lose, Hillary Clinton said she wasn't concerned about the momentum her rival could pick up if he sweeps February's primaries and caucuses.
Clinton said she was ahead in superdelegates, that she didn't have "any idea" when this race would be decided and attributed Barack Obama's big wins over the past few days to the caucus process and to black voters.
"We had a great night on Super Tuesday," she said. "I'm still ahead in the popular vote and in delegates. We're each picking up delegates. I believe if you look at the states that are upcoming I am very confident. I am absolutely looking to Ohio and Texas, because we know that those are states where they represent the broad electorate in this country. They represent the kind of voters that are going to have to be convinced and won over in the general election."
On whether Obama's momentum could impact Ohio and Texas:
"I don't think it does," she said. "I think those are independent electorates and everybody knew, you all knew what the likely outcome of these recent contests were and, you know, my husband didn't win any of these caucus states. You know, he didn't win Maine. He didn't win Colorado. He didn't win Washington. This is about making a strong case. You know, before Super Tuesday you all were reporting the same thing about all of the momentum. It didn't turn out to be true. Let's have the election. You know, intead of talking about them and pontificating about or punditing about them, let's let people actually vote and I think in Texas and Ohio, I will do very, very well, and I intend to run very competitive winning campaigns there."
Clinton said Patti Solis Doyle decided on her own to step down as campaign manager and cited the toll long campaigns take on families.
She said she looked forward to competing in Wisconsin and urged Obama to debate her there.
"It's kind of like one day at a time, where we're going what we're doing," she said. "But, you know, I have a very strong campaign already on the ground in Ohio, in Texas, we're getting, you know, prepared for Wisconsin. We're going to compete everywhere that's the advantage of being able to, you know, have the resources and have the ability to compete eveywhere."
Clinton said she had not been surprised by the large margin of her recent losses to Obama, citing the fact that they were caucus states and in the case of Louisiania the "very strong and very proud African-American electorate, which I totally respect and understand."
NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger is reporting that Paul Weyrich, the Moral Majority co-founder who had supported Mitt Romney's campaign, is bucking his party's trend toward John McCain to instead endorse Mike Huckabee.
In Virginia Beach today, Huck told reporters that Weyrich called him to notify him of his decision. Details to come.
Pro-lifer Gary Bauer endorsed John McCain today, a move the McCainiacs probably hope will start to put to rest the dissatisfaction many in the conservative right have with their likely nominee. Bauer worked in the Reagan White House and is a past president of the Family Research Council. His endorsement follows a decision last week by James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, to back Mike Huckabee.
So what do we know today about the state of the GOP? The party is fractured several times over. Moderates and conservatives clearly aren't getting along. And conservative conservatives -- the religious righters -- seem to be going in different directions -- even as Huck still trails McCain, perhaps irreparably, in the delegate count.
By the by, note Bauer's use of a Hillary Clinton campaign line in his praise for McCain ...
"John McCain has dedicated his life to defending human rights around the world, including the rights of the unborn," Bauer said in a statement released by McCain's campaign. "I admire his consistent 24-year pro-life record and demonstrated commitment to the values that keep our families and communities strong. John McCain alone has the experience, character and credibility to lead as commander in chief on day one and defeat the transcendent threat of our time -- radical Islamic extremism. I am proud to support John McCain for president."
Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA 12), the only Holocaust survivor to serve in the House, died this a.m., according to the AP. He was 80.
His spokesperson said he passed away at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center in MD.
Lantos announced his retirement in early Jan. after learning he’d been diagnosed with cancer of the esophagus. Lantos, on 1/2: "It is only in the United States that a penniless survivor of the Holocaust and a fighter in the anti-Nazi underground could have received an education, raised a family, and had the privilege of serving the last three decades of his life as a Member of Congress."
Mike Huckabee was on "Meet the Press" this weekend:
On the delegate count: "I don't know how the math works out, but there's always the chance something stumbles. The thing is it's not just how many I need, Senator McCain also needs that many. And if he doesn't get that many, he's not the nominee either. This thing could go to the convention. Who knows? But the one thing I know, when people say, 'Isn't it a rather complicated and convoluted path to victory?' You bet it is. But it's a real easy path to defeat. All I have to do is walk off the field, game's over."
The money graph is at the end. Barack Obama can win races in red states and HELP down-ballot Dems, Hillary Clinton can't, argues David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. Why not call it the "McCaskill argument," and it's an effective one.
SILVER SPRING, MD -- It's an argument that Bill Clinton has made before: Hillary Clinton loses caucus states because working-class voters are disenfranchized by evening caucuses. But in the midst of a frenetic effort to harvest the blue-collar vote that Barack Obama has struggled to court in the lead-up to Tuesday's Potomac Primary, the former president isn't holding back.
"Her campaign's broad appeal is largely to people who need a president," Clinton told an audience in Silver Spring's Leisure World retirement community tonight. "Very often they are working and busy and dont go to these caucuses."
Clinton also claimed that, despite losses in caucuses those held in Iowa and Washington State (he conceded that she "got killed" by rival Obama), his wife "had receieved about half a million more popular votes." (it's unclear when that count was made, however) He noted that her losses in caucus - versus primary -- states echoes the results of his own ultimately successful run for the presidency in 1992.
The room filled with regretful and sympathetic murmurs when Clinton related the story of six nurses in Washington State who spoke at an event for the New York senator after she was endorsed by the American Nurses Association. "They all said how sorry they were because they couldn't caucus for her because they had to work that day," he related.
Clinton reiterated his claim today that it is "mostly working people" who have contributed to the fundraising boom that has taken place since "it came out that our campaign was not raising nearly as much money as her opponents campaign, especially over the Internet."
Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in the ME Dem caucuses, according to the AP. With 59% of precincts reporting, the Illinois senator edges HRC, 57% to 42%.
AP: "The voting came a day after Obama and Clinton made personal appeals here ... Organizers had expected heavy participation at the caucuses, but up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) of snow and Arctic cold were expected when many of the gatherings were scheduled. Even so, Democrats started Sunday with more than 4,000 absentee ballots in hand."
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones has confirmed that Hillary Clinton met with John Edwards Thursday at his home in Chapel Hill to make her pitch for his endorsement. The encounter was first reported earlier today by The Page. NBC News subsequently confirmed that Barack Obama will make the same pilgrimage tomorrow to visit with JRE. The Obama campaign, however, is not commenting on the report, according to NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan.
Since Edwards dropped out of the contest nearly two weeks ago, Clinton and Obama have given public props to him at every possible turn, on the stump and in their first one-on-one debate in CA. As former Edwards supporters have realigned, however, more seem to be finding their way to Obama.
While scoring JRE's nod would certainly dominate a day's news cycle, and provide the beneficiary of Edwards' support a new opportunity to appeal to his base of blue-collar voters, would it deliver anything of consequence?
After all, Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy and John Kerry couldn't help push MA into the win column for Obama. Mari Culver, Iowa's first lady, didn't bring Edwards, whom she backed, a victory in her state's first-in-the-nation contest. And many wonder, for example, if MD Gov. Martin O'Malley, a rising star in the Democratic Party and an HRC supporter, be able to help Clinton win his state during Tuesday's Potomac Primary. We're guessing that the state's demographics will play in Obama's favor in the end. So the answer ... No.
So these endorsements -- from former candidates and powerful actors and activists -- don't necessarily produce victories. The question then is do Edwards' delegates shift to the candidate of his choice? And did he land enough delegates to matter in the end?
(ATHENA JONES, ASWINI ANBURAJAN and JENNIFER SKALKA)
In a move rumored since she lost the Iowa caucuses, Hillary Clinton announced today that she is replacing her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle. Maggie Williams, who served as chief of staff to Clinton in the White House, will take over. Doyle, who first worked for Clinton during the 1992 presidential contest, will be a senior adviser.
"Patti Solis Doyle has done an extraordinary job in getting us to this point - within reach of the nomination - and I am enormously grateful for her friendship and her outstanding work," Clinton said in a statement released by her campaign. "And, as Patti has said, this already has been the longest presidential campaign in history and one that has required enormous sacrifices of everyone and our families. I look forward to her continued advice in the months ahead. Patti and I have worked with Maggie Williams for more than a decade. I am lucky to have Maggie on board and I know she will lead our campaign with great skill towards the nomination."
The shake-up comes as rival Barack Obama continues to best Clinton in fundraising -- his team raised $32M in January -- and with Obama in the driver's seat for several of the February nominating contests. The question is -- No matter who is at the helm, can the Cinton team shift gears dramatically at this stage of the contest?
Solis Doyle issued this statement to campaign staff this afternoon.
Over a year ago Hillary launched her campaign for President.
Her announcement began a historic effort that has inspired millions and brought hundreds of thousands to their feet all across this nation.
I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than sixteen years. I know that she will make a great President.
This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families.
During the last month I have been working closely with my longtime friend, Maggie Williams.
This week Maggie will begin to assume the duties of campaign manager. I will serve as a senior adviser to Hillary and the campaign and travel with Hillary from time to time on the road. Maggie is a remarkable person and I am confident that she will do a fabulous job.
Although I will continue to see you all at headquarters, I would be remiss if I didn’t thank each of you for your dedication, excellence, and passion over the last year.
You are the best campaign staff in the history of Presidential politics and I am grateful to each of you for your hard work and friendship.
LYNCHBURG, Va. - Mike Huckabee suggested the Republican Party could meet the same fate as it did in 1976, when the GOP lost the White House to a relatively unknown Georgia peanut farmer, if it nominates a moderate candidate who does not inspire voters.
Speaking at a press conference after addressing Thomas Road Baptist Church, Huckabee compared himself to Ronald Reagan, who ran in 1976 against the party establishment, which led to a floor fight at the national convention. When reminded that the Republicans lost the presidential contest that year, Huckabee said it wasn't because the party was divided, but because the incumbent, Gerald Ford , did not energize the party.
"He never championed himself as a conservative, not a pro-life person for whom that was important," Huckabee said. "He was a really nice moderate Republican, a true gentleman. But a member of Congress and more a part of the Washington Republican establishment than representing the grassroots of conservatism."
And without naming rival John McCain, Huckabee went on to say Republicans could lose this year in a similar fashion.
"I would argue that if we do not have a candidate who can excite the base of this country, and particularly the base of our party and make them energetic and going out and getting the folks to put the yard signs in and making phone calls and traveling all over the country asking people to vote, we can lose again," he said.
Standing with Jerry Falwell Jr., the chancellor and president of Liberty University, Huckabee acknowledged that he was surprised by his success in yesterday's nominating contests; Huck won KS and LA.
"Quite frankly we were very surprised," Huckabee said. "And we weren't confident of anything like that kind of victory in Kansas. We felt we were doing well in Kansas, and I thought we would win Kansas. I thought it would be close."
He also said "all bets are off" if no candidate gets enough votes to secure the Republican nomination.
"We have party officials who wrote the rules," he said. "I'm playing by the rules that somebody else wrote. The very people that are asking me to step aside wrote the rules and now want to suspend and ask us not to go vote. Now they either need to change the rules so they can fix this so 700 votes, or 700 delegates gets the nomination, or don't create a set of rules that requires 1,191."
RICHMOND -- Hillary Clinton was greeted warmly at the VA Dem Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner. But the night belonged to her rival -- here, where voters chanted "Yes We Can" during their governor's rousing introduction of Barack Obama, and in LA, WA and NE, where Obama won decisive caucus and primary victories.
Just three days before Tuesday's DC, MD and VA primaries, Obama rode a burgeoning wave of post Super Tuesday momentum into the Virginia Commonwealth University stadium. He entered to intense applause, and when he wrapped his arm around Gov. Tim Kaine, who introduced Obama by saying "now on to the main event, folks," the audience went wild.
Obama reframed himself -- yet again -- as the underdog, despite the evening's news, and he made a firm and extended pitch for himself as the candidate of choice against likely GOP nom John McCain.
Obama said he does better among independents than Clinton and that he is showing as this contest chugs on that he can win red state America.
"Virginia Democrats know how important this is," he said. "That’s how Mark Warner won in this state. That’s how Tim Kaine won in this state. That’s how Jim Webb won in this state. And if I am your nominee, that's how I'll win this state."
Obama saluted McCain for his service to country, but noted -- as Clinton did earlier -- that he has aligned himself with President Bush, on policies from the Iraq war to tax cuts for the wealthy.
"Somewhere along the way the wheels came off the Straight Talk Express," Obama said.
Obama campaigns in VA tomorrow, starting in Alexandria and later in Virginia Beach. HRC is also in VA, Manassas and Roanoke. Bill Clinton and his daughter, Chelsea, campaign tomorrow in DC and MD for HRC.
"Let me tell you, if that doesn't give me a place in fatherhood heaven, I don't know what will."
-- Mark Warner tonight in Richmond, noting that instead of making a bid for the presidency, for which he would have had to walk the snowy streets of Manchester and Nashua, he took his daughter and her friend to a Hannah Montana concert
As the results come in from WA, NE and LA, here was the Clinton campaign spin:
From spokesman Phil Singer to reporters:
"Tonight there are contests in three states that the Obama campaign has long predicted they would win by large margins. According to a spreadsheet that was obtained by Bloomberg News, the Obama campaign predicted big victories in Washington State, Nebraska and Louisiana.
"The Obama campaign has dramatically outspent our campaign in these three states, saturating the airwaves with 30 and 60 second ads. The Obama campaign has spent $300,000 more in Louisiana on television ads, $190,000 more in Nebraska and $175,000 more in Nebraska.
"Although the next several states that hold nominating contests this month are more favorable to the Obama campaign, we will continue to compete in them and hope to secure as many delegates as we can before the race turns to Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania."
And then this from Singer a few moments ago ... the money card:
"We have now raised $10 million from 100,000 donors since Super Tuesday."
"And now with Sen. McCain as the likely nominee, the Republicans have chosen more of the same. President Bush has already put his stamp of approval on Sen. McCain's conservative credentials, and I'm sure that will help."
-- Hillary Clinton in Richmond at the VA Dem Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner
RICHMOND -- Mayor Doug Wilder took the stage in front of a crowd of 5,000 at the VA Dems' Jefferson-Jackson dinner and saluted the party for its progress in the state. He promised to help deliver VA for the Dems in November. He also harkened back to the 1992 presidential campaign when he watched the returns pour in with Bill and Hillary Clinton in Little Rock. He said Hillary Clinton remarked that evening that her husband only lost VA by a few points. You would have won it, he recalled saying to HRC, had you campaigned there.
And then Wilder, the former VA guv, dropped this quote at the tail-end of his speech before skeddadling off the stage:
"I'd be less than honest if I did not tell you I want Barack Obama to be the next president," he said.
RICHMOND -- Anyone looking for Barack Obama to score the trifecta of Virginia gube endorsements tonight, well, dream on.
Gov. Tim Kaine, who is Barack Obama's national campaign co-chairman, and his predecessors, Mark Warner and Doug Wilder, also an Obama supporter, locked arms before their state's Jefferson Jackson dinner here this evening, sounding this chorus: The party must and will unify when the Democratic nomination battle is settled.
During a brief joint press conference, they also suggested that in the next month of primary contests one of the two leading contenders, Obama or Hillary Clinton, would surge ahead. And that, they said, should signal whom the party should coalesce around, a move highly preferable to a blistering convention brawl.
"I would hope we would have a nominee sooner than the convention so that the party can come back together," said Warner.
When pressed by reporters for an endorsement, however, Warner hedged: "I'm backing Mark Warner for United States Senate."
Sigh.
Wilder, the Richmond mayor and an Obama supporter, seconded Warner's call for the Dems to settle their battle for the nomination before the convention. "Back-room deals and smoke-filled rooms are not going to be the answer," he said.
They said, however, that there is good news in the fact that the fight for the party's nom has found it's way to the most important evening for VA Dems. "Both of the candidates recognize that Virginia is pivotal," Wilder said.
And they all agreed, not surprisingly, that they can deliver the state, once reliably red but now purplish blue, to the Democrats.
"We're going to unify behind our candidate and do what we need to do to win," Kaine said.
Clinton has been campaigning here more intensely than in MD and DC; voters in all three go to the polls Tuesday as part of the Potomac Primary. Heavily African American populations in MD and DC, however, give Obama a built-in advantage.
While campaigning in Wichita, this afternoon with KS senator and former presidential candidate Sam Brownback, John McCain announced that he had recently received the support of another former candidate.
"I also spoke again yesterday to my friend Fred Thompson who assured me he is ready to do whatever it takes to help me win the election in November," McCain said. "I'm very proud to have the friendship and support of Fred Thompson as well."
The campaign would not confirm whether Thompson officially endorsed McCain or not, and sources close to Thompson did not immediately return phone inquiries. Thompson did serve as a national co-chair of McCain's 2000 presidential campaign but has not announced formal support since he dropped out of the race last month.
McCain has many reasons to feel confident in his bid for the nomination after Mitt Romney suspended his campaign yesterday, but GOP donors had already begun to coalesce around their new frontrunner in January. On the campaign's plane traveling from Virginia to Kansas this morning, McCain's campaign manager told reporters that the campaign had raised $12 million last month alone, surpassing the campaign's entire fourth quarter total.
MSNBC's David Shuster has been suspended for comments he made on last night's "Tucker" about Chelsea Clinton. During the broadcast, which Shuster hosted, he asked a guest if Chelsea was "being pimped out in some weird sort of way?"
According to "The Trail," Hillary Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson called the comment "disgusting," "beneath contempt" and "the kind of thing that should never be said on a national news network." Wolfson also noted Clinton had just agreed to participate in an MSNBC debate Feb. 26 in Cleveland and added: "I, at this point, can't envision doing another debate on that network."
Shuster is expected to apologize for the remark on tonight's "Tucker." He already apologized this morning, when he appeared on "Morning Joe," saying: "Last night I used a phrase, some slang about her efforts. I didn't think that people would take it literally, but some people have. ... I apologize for that. I should have seen people would see it that way. I'm sorry."
According to the NBC statement, despite the suspension, he will be allowed to make the appearance on "Tucker" tonight.
From NBC: "Shuster, who apologized this morning on MSNBC and will again this evening, has been suspended from appearing on all NBC News broadcasts, other than to make his apology. He has also extended an apology to the Clinton family. NBC News takes these matters seriously, and offers our sincere regrets to the Clintons for the remarks."
EMILY's List got into the action earlier today, announcing President Ellen Malcolm sent a letter to MSNBC News Senior Vice President Phil Griffin, stating: "The half hearted apology by Mr. Shuster this morning fails to even acknowledge the insulting nature of his comments. Your tolerance for this behavior speaks volumes about the corporate culture of MSNBC. If you refuse to take action, women across the country, viewers, sponsors, and consumers can only assume your implicit endorsement of this type of sexist commentary on women and repugnant treatment of our children."
TMP posted You Tube clips from Shuster's "Tucker" appearance with his original comments and his apology this morning on "Morning Joe":
The ongoing saga has been the main story on Drudge most of the day. (EMILY GOODIN)
Here's the lineup for the Sunday morning public affairs shows and other weekend happenings:
SUNDAY SHOWS:
Meet the Press hosts Mike Huckabee and a roundtable with Washington Post's David Broder, PBS' Gwen Ifill, NBC's Chuck Todd, and CNBC's David Brody.
Face the Nation hosts Huckabee, Dem strategist Joe Trippi and GOP strategist Karl Rove.
This Week guests are TBD.
Fox News Sunday hosts Pres. Bush for the full hour.
Late Edition hosts Speaker Nancy Pelosi, ex-Sec/State Colin Powell, House Min. Leader John Boehner, and hosts a roundtable with Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria, CNN's Jeffrey Toobin, and CNN's Gloria Borger.
OTHER WEEKEND SHOWS:
60 Minutes features a Steve Kroft interview with Barack Obama and a Katie Couric interview with Hillary Clinton (CBS, SUN, 7 pm).
Washington Week hosts Washington Post's Dan Balz, Time's Michael Duffy, Wall Street Journal's Jackie Calmes, and Slate's John Dickerson on the WH campaign (PBS, FRI, 8 pm).
Political Capital features American Conservative Union's David Keene (Bloomberg, FRI, 8:30 pm).
Chris Matthews Show features New York Times' Patrick Healy, Washington Post's Anne Kornblut, BBC's Katty Kay, and NBC's Ron Allen on the WH campaign (NBC, check local listings).
KANSAS CITY, Kan. - Mike Huckabee worked to draw a contrast between himself and John McCain today, and suggested the twists and turns of the Republican race for president make him still viable.
"Conservatives in the Republican Party ought to have a choice for somebody who is unapologetically, one hundred percent, without any flinching at all, pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, and pro-fair tax," he said to a full house at Mid-America Nazarene University, adding, "and pro-secure borders."
Huckabee is hoping strong showings in Kansas on Saturday and Virginia on Tuesday will keep his campaign alive. But said he would campaign until one candidate has a majority of delegates, even suggesting that Romney delegates could select him at the convention if they are released.
"Let's say we get to the convention and Romney releases his delegates," he said. "They can come towards me. There's also a lot of factors that can happen. Any given day, a candidate can say one word and it gets YouTubed and his campaign's done.
"The one thing, I know, isn't it a very complicated process for you to win? The answer is yes. But, you know, it's a very simply way to lose. I can just quit."
AP reports that Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire endorsed Barack Obama for president today, "providing a last-minute lift to the Illinois senator on the eve of the state's hotly contested Democratic caucuses."
The AP writes that it was a tough decision for the female governor; the state's two female senators -- Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell -- are with Hillary Clinton. "But she said Obama is a charismatic and skilled leader who can bring the country together, help solve nagging problems, and restore the country's image abroad."
Gregoire is expected to campaign today with Obama in Seattle. Clinton is also in Washington. Democrats caucus tomorrow in Washington. There are 78 delegates in play.
"I would give him the edge going into Saturday, but caucuses are kind of hard to call," she said, according to the AP.
Hillary Clinton debuted two TV ads today in the Potomac Primary market: "Free Fall" and "Can Do." The former is a bit Rudy Giuliani-esque in its fear factor element, only its focus is on the economy, not national security. Features a skydiver tumbling through the air as a narrator expounds that "foreclosures, interest rates, and health care costs are spinning out of control. With your job and family security in the balance, the stakes have never been higher in choosing our next president." Your parachute? Clinton, of course. "Can Do" is, as the name implies, more optimistic in tone.
With Mitt Romney suspending his campaign, pundits discussed its ripple effects on the '08 race:
JUST A MATTER OF TIME?
There was discussion of whether or not Mike Huckabee would drop out:
CNN's J. King, on Huckabee: "Some believe that he might step aside after another week or two of the contest, that one of his goals is to get more delegates than Mitt Romney heading into the convention."
More King: "Virtually impossible for Mike Huckabee to catch up to John McCain. He would have to win all of the contests and he would have to win them huge, Wolf, because many of the contests to come have proportional rules in them. So McCain would get some of the delegates even coming in second place. The math is almost impossible" ("Situation Room," 2/7).
ABC's Stephanopoulos: "The math just isn't there for Mike Huckabee. ... Mike Huckabee stays in for now so he can continue to gain delegates so he's the clear second choice. The more delegates he gets the better case he has to be the vice presidential pick" ("World News," 2/7).
Washington Post's Milbank: "If Huckabee is indeed the anointed and the hand of God touches him, but you know, we here on earth have to deal with things such as delegate count. So, it's virtually a statistic impossibility unless he basically wins everything almost entirely from here on out and it's just not on the cards" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/7).
Two Potomac Primary friendly endorsements for John McCain today: former RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman, a native Marylander, and former MD Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr., who had supported Rudy Giuliani's bid. The latter endorsement is expected shortly in Balto.
Mehlman, in a statement released by McCain's campaign: "Our party has had many outstanding candidates this year, but it is now time for Republicans across the country to unite. Together, led by Sen. McCain, we will work for a better, safer, stronger America."
New HRC ad airing in Washington State. Mentions support for her from the state's two female senators, Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell. The ad is otherwise health care focused.
Narrator: "Health care is a moral obligation, not a privilege."
John McCain, who appears to be the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee, was resoundingly booed before and after addressing the Conservative Political Action Convention this afternoon, despite his plea to the Republican right that they have more in common than not.
McCain was introduced first, though erroneously, by former VA guv George Allen. Allen, who endorsed McCain today after having supported Fred Thompson's bid, was supposed to introduce Sen. Tom Colburn who had the official honor of presenting McCain. So, with the double introduction, McCain was booed not once, but twice.
McCain made a humble plea for the support of the far right contingent of his party, saying that though they have disagreed at turns and though he has made "mistakes" (more booing), "you will still allow that in many ways important to all of us (I have) maintained the record of a conservative."
The AZ senator made his argument today on principle, saying that he is a politician to be trusted, a man who will be frank about his views even in the face of criticism.
"I hope you will grant that I have defended many positions we share, just as ardently as I have made my case for positions that have provoked your opposition," he said.
But that didn't seem enough. So on he plowed.
"I will stand on my convictions, my conservative convictions," he said.
"Liberty," he said, "is a right conferred by our Creator, not by governments."
Finally, big applause.
McCain reinforced his support for Ronald Reagan, saying as he has in ads to date and on the trail, that he was a foot soldier in the Reagan revolution. He ticked off the views about which he figured he and his audience would find commonality: small government, fiscal discipline, strong defense, social values, strict constructionist judges. He said he has "proudly defended" his 25-year pro life record and backed the Second Amendment.
And he addressed some of those nagging points of difference, illegal immigration, prime among them. He even tried humor.
"I have made mistakes, you can attest to that," he joked, before promising to "secure our borders first."
OMAHA, NE -- Barack Obama called Mitt Romney's candidacy "ineffective" on the day that the former MA governor exited the presidential race.
Romney, who dropped out of the race for president today in Washington, said in his exit speech that the GOP must unify and not allow Democrats to allow the country to "surrender to terror."
"Well my reaction to Mitt Romney's comment that's the kind of poorly thought out comment that led him to drop out," Obama said during a press avail on his campaign plane. "It's a classic attempt to appeal to people's fears that will not work in this campaign. I think that's part of the reason he was such an ineffective candidate."
And the day after rival Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign $5 million, Obama also stressed that he had disclosed his income tax returns.
"I'll just say that I've released my tax returns," he said. "That's been a policy I've maintained consistently. I think the American people deserve to know, you know, where you get your income from," he said, adding that his campaign had "set the bar on transparency and disclosure."
Obama said that unlike Clinton he didn't have enough personal funds to loan his campaign that much money. On what it meant that Clinton had to borrow funds from her husband, former President Bill Clinton, he said little, saying it's a legal issue but he didn't want to get into the "intricacies" of it.
He added that Clinton's money woes reflected her inability to generate the same kind of "grassroots enthusiasm" that the Obama campaign.
"You know it's not for lack of trying and she's got a former president actively fundraising for her as well as people like Terry McAuliffe, but you know what we've done is we've created this base where people are sending $25 checks and $50 check on an ongoing basis and that is an enormous advantage to our campaign," he said.
He added that the success of his online fundraising had allowed him to limit the number of fundraisers he was holding and focus more on door to door campaigning, citing that $27M of the $32M his campaign had raised in January came from online donors.
Reflecting a change in fundraising strategy he added, "At this point in January we had 4 or 5 fundraisers I think. And most of the money that we're raising now is coming online from people who are strong supporters of us."
(NBC/NJ's ASWINI ANBURAJAN)
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Former NE Sen. Bob Kerrey is featured in a new Hillary Clinton spot that will air in his home state. Just a reminder ... Kerrey, who is president of the New School in New York, ran for president against Bill Clinton in 1992. Nebraska's Democratic caucus is Saturday.
Kerrey: "I support Hillary because I like her, trust her, and have confidence in her as commander and chief. As a leader to get our economy back on the right track and to strengthen our rural communities, expand access to affordable healthcare, and improve the quality of our schools."
Iowa Gov. Chet Culver, whose wife endorsed John Edwards before his state's first-in-the-nation caucuses, has endorsed Barack Obama.
From an Obama campaign statement: "It’s clear the American people are hungry for change, and they're looking for a leader who can push back on the special interests,” Culver said. “It’s time for a new, fresh approach to governing in Washington, and Sen. Barack Obama represents this new approach.”
Despite the fact his general primary opponent has yet to concede, scientist Bill Foster (D), who comfortably won his special primary, is charging out of the gate with a “significant” ad buy in IL-14. Beginning tomorrow a.m., the campaign will begin a 1-week ad buy on broadcast TV. Here’s the ad:
A broadcast TV ad buy is a big move, but the condensed schedule of the special election – it’s 3/8 – makes such moves necessary. Already, both candidates have tried to engage the other on topics they feel the other is vulnerable on. Foster, in his ad, on Iraq, and his opponent, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (R), used the day after the 2/5 primary to challenge Foster on taxes.
Foster, however, fired the first broadcast shot, and it certainly won’t be the last. Both camps spent about $1.3M in the primary, and with the expensive Chicago media market, that figure seems likely to be duplicated in the next month.[Tim Sahd]
A genuine show of financial strain? Cynics could -- perhaps justifiably-- view yesterday's personal-loan announcement by the Hillary Clinton camp as no less tactical than her Iowa tears. Ultimately, Clinton's personal loan may illustrate her financial disadvantage, as much it does her tactical prowess. To wit: Clinton made the loan last month but did not make it public until yesterday, the same day the campaign confirmed that some of her top staff members, including manager Patti Solis Doyle, would go without pay in order to save her cash-strapped campaign. It was an odd roll-out of desperation and self-sacrifice--a perfect recipe, it seems, to ask supporters if they, too, could dig deep.
And that's just what Clinton did. After admitting financial strain, Clinton personally sent an e-mail plea to her donors. "I've never asked so much of you as I am now: $3 million in three days. But the need has never been so great," she pleaded.
Taking on the air of a PBS pledge drive signaled, if nothing else, that Clinton had lost her frontrunner status-- a desirable predicament in a campaign where no one wants to be the Inevitable One. Cue Barack Obama reminding supporters yesterday that he's still the underdog.
In Clinton's case, it seems-- once again-- showing weakness worked. Even without the promise of a commemorative tote bag, the people responded giving Clinton what the campaign said was its biggest single day of contributions since their launch. The Clinton camp exceeded the $3M fundraising goal in less than 24 hours, raising $4M online in a single day. It may not have been calculated, but the value of vulnerability played out once again (Nora McAlvanah).
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney abandoned his flailing campaign for the GOP nom today, telling a supportive audience at the CPAC convention that he and his fellow conservatives must withstand cultural attacks from the left, cut income and corporate taxes, and put unions in their place. It was technically an exit speech, but it sounded more like he was debuting his pitch to be the Republicans' pick in 2012. And during and after Romney spoke, the crowd routinely booed references to their party's presumptive nominee, John McCain -- without discouragement from the MA governor.
"If I fight on in my campaign all the way to the convention, I want you to know I've given this a lot of thought, I forstall the launch of the rest of the campaign
and frankly I'd be making it easier for Sen. Clinton and Obama to win," Romney said. "Frankly in this time of war I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror."
He added: "If this were only about me, I'd go on, but it's never been only about me. I feel I have to now stand aside for my party and for my country."
There were yells of "No No No" from the crowd and "We love you Mitt."
Romney said he and McCain are closer in this contest than people might think. Romney said he's won the votes of 4M people, compared with McCain's 4.7M. But, he added, "because size does matter he's doing quite a bit better with the delegates he's got."
In leaving the race for the White House, Romney did not offer the same generous tone as did onetime rival Rudy Giuliani, who graciously departed the contest by congratulating the GOPers -- and particularly McCain -- for the campaigns they'd each run and celebrating their shared political mission. Instead, Romney's remarks were about, well, Romney, and the continued recasting of the MA governor as the heir apparent to Ronald Reagan's legacy.
Laura Ingraham, the talk radio host who introduced Romney here today, called him the "true conservative" in the race, the candidate "who is proud to be a conservative and who embodies conservative ideals."
Her introduction and his address offered not just a revisionist rendering of Romney's record but also reinforced potentially debilitating divisions within the party. Neither Romney nor Ingraham did a lick today to mend fences between the moderate and right wings of the GOP. This schism can only hurt their nominee in the long run -- but perhaps that's the idea.
Romney today offered up a bounty of red meat to the conservative right, a sign that his political evolution is a work in progress, even though his campaign ends today.
He said that marriage should be fortified through Constitutional amendment "so that liberal judges cannot continue to attack it." He said Europe is facing "a demographic disaster" because of "disrespect for human life" and a decline in morality. He said America must stand up for family values. He said that we need lower income taxes -- and corporate taxes. He said that the long-term health of the country's economy rests on the nation's investment in new energy technologies: nuclear power, clean coal, liquid coal and more. "Simply put, America must never be held hostage by the likes of Putin, Chavez and Ahmadinejad."
And he said the country must "stand up to the increasingly voracious appetite of the unions in our government."
Oh my, oh my. Dare I write it? Let the 2012 contest begin.
WASHINGTON -- Laura Ingraham today at CPAC, gearing up to introduce Mitt Romney, had this to say about Hillary Clinton's infusion of $5M of her own cash into her campaign. Ingraham, the uber conservative radio talk show host, said she's not sure why everyone is so surprised:
"That tear duct enlargement surgery is really expensive."
Severalsources are now saying that Mitt Romney will drop out of the WH GOP race.
From National Journal/NBC's McPike: Romney used this year's CPAC confab here as the venue to bring his presidential bid to a close.
"If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Sen. Clinton or Obama would win," Romney said.
As the results were rolling in on Super Tuesday, the Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes correctly predicted on FOX that Romney would likely exit the presidential race during his CPAC appearance.
Several scenarios abounded regarding the road ahead should Romney have stayed in the race (including a situation the campaign explained to the New York Times that had the campaign hoping they could nab many of the delegates up for grabs in the event of a Huckabee concession), but too many prognosticators deemed the odds mathematically impossible.
Romney employed many of the same lines in his speech that he's used on the stump throughout his campaign. And he confirmed one obvious thing that he admitted in his book, Turnaround, following his failed 1994 Senate campaign: He hates to lose.
Hillary Clinton’s top campaign operatives today continued their efforts to line up future debates with Barack Obama, sending a letter to the Obama camp, saying: "We hope Senator Obama will join Senator Clinton for a debate a week beginning this weekend.” The Clinton camp notified the press about the letter early this a.m., which they said campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle will be sending to Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.
"I was disappointed to see that Senator Obama rejected the idea of having more debates given the fact that he and Senators Clinton have had only a single one-on-one debate," Solis Doyle wrote. "I think we can do better and so does Hillary."
For their part, the Obama camp objected to the challenge, or at least the manner in which it was posed. “Their tactic is underscored by their admission that they sent their reporters before they actually sent it to us,” said Obama spokesperson Bill Burton. “We’re going to debate but it’s not going to be dictated by the Clinton campaign. We’ll have details on our schedule, including debates, soon” (NORA McALVANAH).
In the aftermath of Super Tuesday, and dealing with "political hangovers" as some pundits put it, the talking heads looked back on country's first so-called national primary:
REPORTERS START VYING FOR PUERTO RICO ASSIGNMENT
There was a lot of discussion on the delegate race for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and whether the Dems will see their nomination go to a brokered convention:
New York Times' Brooks: "It's very unlikely, frankly, if you calculate the number of delegates that are still out there and the number you would need to get a clear majority, it's unlikely that they will get them without these super-delegates, who are the party honchos. And it could be up to the party honchos to decide this or, under the supposition that the craziest possible thing that can happen will happen, it could be up to Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico comes at the end. It is the only -- it is not the only, but it is a winner-take-all primary, 63 delegates at stake, a bigger margin for the winner than in California, New York, Illinois. So this thing could be settled by Puerto Rico" ("NewsHour," PBS, 2/6).
Dem strategist/Super delegate Donna Brazile: "I think, if 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this. ... There's no reason why we should decide this election. I feel very strongly" ("Situation Room," CNN, 2/6).
CNN's Borger: "In a way, it's sort of back to the smoke-filled room. Because if it's up to the 800 or so -- 796 super-delegates, they're going to have their arms twisted by party leaders, by over who won in their state, over who won in where they live, etc" ("Situation Room," 2/6).
NBC's Todd: "There's a huge gap this time between the last primary, Puerto Rico in June and the actual start of the convention. You know, in the old days, the conventions were you know, only four weeks after the last primary. So, a convention fight didn't seem like it get out of hand. I think Howard Dean is having a nightmare of a three-month convention fight after the last primary and before the start of the actual convention" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 2/6).
Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe sent this fundraising email out tonight. In it, he works to raise a little dough off of yesterday's Super Tuesday "win," BUT, more critically, off of today's news that Hillary Clinton has given $5M to her campaign.
Dear XYZ,
I was writing a note to you about the state of the race after Super Tuesday when we got some startling news.
The Clinton campaign just announced that Hillary and Bill Clinton injected $5 million of their personal fortune into her campaign a few days ago.
This is a dramatic move, and a clear acknowledgement that our campaign has the momentum. We saw undeniable evidence of that last night as the results came in.
Barack Obama won the most states and the most delegates on February 5th.
We have gotten to this point thanks to an unprecedented outpouring of support from ordinary Americans.
To date, more than 650,000 people like you have taken ownership of this campaign, giving whatever they can afford.
The Clinton infusion of $5 million -- and there are reports it could end up being as much as $20 million -- will give them huge resources for the next set of primaries and caucuses.
Thanks to you, we have raised more than $3 million since the polls closed on February 5th. But we have no choice -- we must match their $5 million right now.
We're going to do it the right way, with small donations from people like you. It's never been more urgent that you make a donation of $25 right now.
John McCain is running three ads in the Feb. 12 Chesapeake primary states -- DC, MD and VA. The spots -- "Never Surrender," "True Conservative," and "Trust" -- have run in other early states. McCain, who dominated the Super Tuesday contests and appears to be en route to his party's nom, is the only GOPer up in the Washington market.
No definitive word yet out of New Mexico, the only Super Tuesday state not to have been called. According to the AP, fewer than 100 votes separate Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Four precincts are still out, and some 16,870 ballots remain to be counted.
With 180 of 184 precincts reporting, Obama has the slightest edge — 65,036 votes, compared with 64,965 for Clinton. Up for grabs ... 26 of the state's 38 delegates to the Dem National Convention. The state has 12 superdelegates not bound by the caucus results, reports the AP.
State Dem Party Chairman Brian Colon said results from four precincts were delayed because the county chairs could not be reached.
Sen. Hillary Clinton confirmed today during a press conference in Arlington that she loaned her campaign $5M last month.
Meanwhile, Howard Wolfson, a Clinton spoksman, told The Page that "the loan illustrates Sen. Clinton’s commitment to this effort and to ensuring that our campaign has the resources it needs to compete and win across this nation."
Here, however, was Bill Clinton in the the Politico Dec. 24, slamming the notion of self-financing during a campaign event in Iowa.
“In response to a question in Cedar Rapids about campaign finance reform, Clinton touched on a possible presidential bid by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. ‘Let’s think of somebody I really admire, the mayor of New York City, Mike Bloomberg,’ Clinton said. ‘I like him; he’s a really good mayor. But if he’s runs for president, he can spend a billion dollars and not miss it. That’s real money to most of us. Under the law, there are no constraints.’ He railed against the Supreme Court for blocking some attempts to limit the influence of money in politics. ‘We are very frustrated because we have a Supreme Court that seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us.’ And he implied that he would not use his own funds to support his wife's candidacy. ‘For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary’s campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform,’ he said.”
As for the 'whys' of this move ... Remember, Barack Obama's team reported that they raised $32M in January alone, this in the lead up to the oh so possibly critical Super Tuesday contests.
The cable nets were in full-on coverage mode for Super Tuesday and The Hotline tracked (to the best of its TV watching ability) the times each net called various races. But one thing worth noting was how cautious CNN was to call states, leaving it behind the other nets on projection after projection.
For example, FNC called MA for Hillary Clinton at 8:52 pm. MSNBC called it at 8:57 pm but CNN didn't call it until 9:46 pm. And while FNC and MSNBC called GA for Mike Huckabee at 10:41 pm, CNN didn't call it until 11:29 pm. Those weren't the only states. CNN was noticeably behind on calls in the AL GOP race (2 and 1/2 hours after FNC called it), both MO races (almost an hour in the Dem race and about 30 minutes in the GOP race), and the TN GOP race (almost an hour and a half after FNC called it).
It can be argued the net was suffering from “New Hampshire syndrome,” which prompted all the news outlets to promise to be more careful in their examination of poll numbers, but the lag times left a noticeable hole in CNN’s news coverage and gave FNC and MSNBC a leg up on the competition.
The NM Dem primary remains uncalled. CNN reports that with 98% of precincts reporting, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49-48%. In fact, Obama currently has 65,036 votes to Clinton's 64,965. Obama's edge of just 71 votes is far less than the 2,002 cast for John Edwards or the 1,164 for Bill Richardson.
So reported but perhaps overshadowed by the overwhelming nature of the day's news was this remark from Hillary Clinton last night at her sorta victory party:
"Let me be clear, I won't let anyone swift boat this country's future."
Dear readers, what do YOU think she meant? The line wasn't so much about John Kerry's swift boating troubles, as it was about Barack Obama's potential vulnerabilities being greater than hers? The GOP as able, more easily, to sink his candidacy?
Seemed to us a loaded statement for a Super Tuesday speech ...
So where are we this morning? Well, let's start with: Where aren't we?
Post Super Tuesday, we haven't a definitive nominee for either party -- though John McCain looks to be the GOP's presumptive pick based on a strong showing last night. He won nine states, including CA, AZ, IL and NY. And he has Mike Huckabee, yet again, to thank for stealing Mitt Romney's thunder. Huck picked up WV, AL, TN, AR and GA.
It might be early to posit as much, but how could McCain not select the former Arkansas governor as his running mate? A McCain/Huckabee partnership could potentially quiet the griping coming from the religious right about McCain's lack of solidly conservative credentials. Also, and more importantly, Huckabee has stayed in a race he knows he's not going to win to siphon potential support from this community. For McCain's benefit alone. Or depending on how one looks at it, to sink Romney. Huck is hugely responsible for McCain's resurgence; McCain wouldn't likely have done it without him. Thank you, Iowa. Thank you, Florida.
The Dems, however, as we know at this point, are a whole other scene. Last night was a draw at best, with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each able to claim significant victories. Clinton landed CA and NY and MA, among other states. She has been up in MA from the start, by 20 to 30 points at various turns, but with Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy and Sen. John Kerry campaigning extensively there and elsewhere for Obama, Clinton's MA win is certainly something to flaunt. And flaunt, her team is. With pleasure.
On a call with reporters this morning, HRC adviser Mark Penn noted that Clinton is ahead thus far in the popular vote and scored the most delegates out of Super Tuesday. In the big states -- MA, CA, NY, NJ, AZ, TN -- her margins were strong, he said. And despite losing MO by a hair to Obama (your 'thank you' bouquet is in the mail, Claire McCaskill, xoxo, Team Obama), Penn argued that Clinton won 110 of the state's 115 districts, "debunking claims" that she can't win in rural, red state America.
"Voters sent a strong message that they’re looking for a serious, substantive candidate," Penn said. He also pitched this line about their rival -- Voters, he said, "rejected the increasingly establishment oriented campaign of Sen. Obama."
(Rich, indeed, coming from the former First Lady's team.)
While the Clinton people wouldn't offer a final delegate count out of the night or the contest, saying that they believe at this point that she's up one for Super Tuesday, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, pitched his team's very specific count to reporters. He said he believes Obama garnered 847 pledged delegates last night to Clinton's 834. For the contest so far, Plouffe said their count shows Obama at 910 and Clinton at 882.
(The Washington Post has Clinton with 845 overall and Obama with 765. Remember as well that New Mexico is still outstanding this a.m.)
Plouffe said that in total, Obama has more states, and he believes more delegates. "We think that's a powerful showing." He said Clinton had all along anticipated that Super Tuesday would decide the contest for her. "On that score, they failed miserably," he said.
But sadly, for Mitt Romney's sake, it's probably not worth a thousand dollars.
What's clear: Romney had a disappointing night, winning in only a few places like MA and UT where he was couldn’t afford to lose anway. According to a Romney aide, today will be a day of "frank discussions" for the campaign. One that we're guessing could force Romney to re-evaluate his stock options [NORA McALVANAH].
In what's developing into a very interesting twist, scientist/businessman Bill Foster (D) leads '06 nominee John Laesch (D) 50-43% in the IL-14 special election primary, but has only a 21-vote lead in the regular primary election. Only 63% of precincts are reporting in that regular primary, but is it possible that Foster will win a spot on the 3/8 special primary ballot and be denied a spot on the 11/08 ballot?
On the other side in the contentious GOP primary, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (R) leads state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) 57-43% with 56% of the vote counted in the special election primary, while Oberweis leads Lauzen 56-41% on the regular primary ballot with 63% of the precincts in.
Barack Obama, addressing supporters in Chicago tonight:
"The polls are just closing in California, and the votes are still being counted in cities and towns across America. But there is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know. Our time has come. Our time has come, our movement is real and change is coming to America."
Obama said his campaign "began as a whisper in Springfield" but is now "a chorus" of voices sweeping across the nation.
He said this election, the stakes are too high "to play the same game with the same Washington players." It's time, he said, to write a new chapter in American history.
Obama said the campaign is not about him or Sen. Hillary Clinton.
"I respect her as a colleague, I congratulate her on her victories tonight," he said. "She's been running an outstanding race. But this fall we owe the American people a real choice. We have to choose between change and more of the same. We have to choose between looking backwards and looking forwards."
And he said his is the campaign who has unified Americans of all backgrounds and races to a "common purpose." The contest he said shouldn't be about experience, but about who should change Washington.
"We've won primaries in the west, south, the midwest and the northeast," John McCain said tonight at his AZ election party, adding that he doesn't much care for the frontrunner label. But he added: "I think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party frontrunner for the nomination of president of the United States. And I don't really mind it one bit."
[Others aren't so sure: "John McCain is going to have to scratch and crawl all the way to St. Paul" -- MSNBC's Joe Scarborough.]
Meanwhile, McCain also lauded Mike Huckabee's skills as a campaigner. "I salute you, I salute Gov. Huckabee," McCain said.
He also congratulated Mitt Romney on his victories, despite grumblings from his Phoenix audience.
McCain also mentioned in his speech that his mother, Roberta McCain, will be 96 in two days. McCain: "We're taking her everywhere" (mult.).
Mitt Romney press sec. Kevin Madden just told reporters that John McCain "woefully underperformed given the expectations he set for himself." Madden added: "There's a big fat question mark next to John McCain."
Madden also said he's got to look further into the exit polls, but that McCain is losing among conservatives again, and that it looks like is "willing to antagonize a lot of conservatives."
As for Huckabee, Madden laughed at his statement that the race is now a two-person race between him and McCain. He said that Huckabee doesn't have the ability to make the argument on electability that the Romney camp does, and that's one of the things they will be pointing out going forward. The other big forthcoming message is that Romney is the GOPer who can best present a contrast to the Dem candidates -- a message they've been using a lot lately (NBC/National Journal).
NEP exit polls of CA GOPers posted by MSNBC show John McCain leading Mitt Romney 38-37%.
-- Among the 65% of voters who approved of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R) job, McCain led 49-29%, while among the rest who disapproved, Romney topped McCain 55-18%.
-- Continuing a trend seen in some other states today, McCain led among voters younger than 64 years old, 39-36% over Romney, while Romney led among voters 65+, 40-38%.
-- The economy was the top issue among GOPers, and McCain took 43% of that vote, while Romney only received 31%.
-- On illegal immigration, which was the second-most important issue, Romney led McCain 55-21%.
-- Among the 63% of voters who considered themselves conservative, Romney topped McCain 48-32%. Among moderates, which made up 27% of the vote, McCain led Romney 48-22%.
-- The 37% who made their decision in the last week, Romney led McCain 42-36%. Voters who made their decision before that gave McCain a 41-40% advantage.
NEP exit polls of CA Dems posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton among men 51-43% (45% of voters) and Clinton leading Obama among women 57-39%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Obama leading 49-44% among whites (53% of voters) and 78-19% among blacks (6% of voters). Clinton, however, leads 65-34% among hispanics/latinos (29% of voters).
-- Obama leading 54-46% among voters aged 18-29 (14% of voters) and 50-47% among those aged 30-44 (23% of voters). Clinton meanwhile leads 53-44% among voters aged 45-59 (31% of voters) and 53-37% among those 60 years or over (31% of voters).
-- Clinton leading 55-40% among registered Dems (81% of voters) and Obama leading 63-31% among registered Inds (17% of voters).
-- Obama leading 49-47% among the 36% of voters who decided within the last week. Among all others, Clinton leads 54-42%.
-- Clinton leading 51-44% in LA County, 56-41% in So. Cal. and 58-38% in the bay area.
-- Obama leading on Iraq 52-43% (46% of voters say it is the most important issue facing the U.S.) and Clinton leading on economy 52-43% (32% say most important issue) and health care 61-36% (19% say most important issue).
-- Obama leading on "change" 65-32%, with 49% of voters saying it was the most important quality to their decision. Clinton, however, leads on "experience" 90-6%, with 24% of voters saying it was the most important quality to their decision.
On a conf. call minutes ago w/reporters, Obama manager David Plouffe said: "We could not be more thrilled with how we're doing tonight. ... We're going to come out of it in much better shape than we had imagined."
The camp projects it's ahead in delegates awarded tonight, 606-534. And "we may end up winning more delegates" as the Western states come in. The camp projects winning 23 of the 32 delegates in KS; and 46 of the 72 delegates in MN. The camp expects MN, which also has 72 delegates, to be "very close."
Plouffe said the camp is "doing very well in the caucus states, exceeding our margins that we had projected there" -- "we're not eking out wins here." Plouffe: "We've shown real strength across the country tonight."
Plouffe also notes Obama won his home state by more delegates than HRC did, by a 15 net delegate margin, which he called "unexpected." He also highlighted Obama's exit poll performance among women and Latino voters (and said he expects winning "a good share of the Latino vote" in CA), and that the camp won CT and DE, where Indy voters weren't allowed to participate.
"If this ends up being a draw," Plouffe said, "we think that that is a remarkable night for us" [HOLLY NOE].
Hillary Clinton said tonight that voters across the nation cast ballots today "in record numbers, not just to make history but to remake America."
"Tonight we are hearing the voices of people across America," she said addressing supporters in NYC at 10:50 p.m, " ... after seven years of a president who listens only to the special interests, you're ready for a president who brings your voice, your values and your dreams to the White House."
She congratulated Barack Obama and noted that she looks forward to "continuing our campaign and our debates." She also paid tribute to the folks of TN who have seen a tornado roll through several towns, causing one fatality and prompting the closure of at least four polling sites.
"Tonight, though, is your night," she said. "Tonight is America's night. And it's not over yet because the polls are still open in California for a few more minutes."
HRC also mentioned this evening that her mother, who was born before women could vote, is now witnessing her daughter's bid for the presidency. "We are destined for progress together," she said.
Clinton has won six states so far this evening; Obama has taken nine. But a few big ones loom large -- CA, AZ and MO -- and the Super Tuesday advantage will go to the candidate who scores those states' delegates.
It's a "bit chaotic" at Obama's NY party. "Apparently the Giants enthusiasts have been here drinking all day and now they are being displaced a bit by the hopeful young crowd who are arriving in a steady stream. ... It seriously smells like vomit up in the front" ("The Politicker").
Meanwhile, we hear Rob Reiner is at the HRC party in NYC, where it doesn't smell like vomit.
FNC's Garrett, who is at HRC's HQ, was standing next to HRC surrogate/Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ). Garrett: "I saw him a couple of minutes ago dancing up and down. Well, not up and down. Back and forth" (FNC).
Mike Huckabee, in his Election Night speech: "Over the past few days, a lot of people have been trying to say this is a two-man race. Well, you know what, it is, and we're in it! ... Tonight we are making sure America understands that sometimes one small, smooth stone is even more effective than a whole lot of armor" (mult.)
Mitt Romney, who has won just three Super Tuesday states this evening, vowed a few minutes ago to press on in his bid for the presidency.
"Ann came to me and said the one thing that's clear tonight is that nothing's clear," said Romney, addressing supporters at 10:30 p.m. in Boston. "One thing's clear, this campaign is going on. ... We're going to go all the way to the convention. We're going to win this thing and go all the way to the White House."
Romney, his wife by his side, said that the three states in which he and Ann have lived -- MI, MA, UT -- have given him victories. But he said he's looking west, to Colorado and Montana, among other places, for additional support.
He cautioned that the delegate count for the evening is still undetermined as yet. "My guess is that our home we'll be staying up later than most of you will," he said.
And without naming John McCain, he took this shot at his rival: "I think it's important to have a president who has actually had a job in the private sector."
NEP exit polls of UT GOPers posted by MSNBC show Mitt Romney blowing away the field with 91%. McCain trails far back with 4%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Romney took every demographic category with at least 70% of the vote, and even won among the 14% who said McCain is the most qualified to be commander-in-chief.
"Over the past few days, a lot of people have been trying to say this is a two-man race," Mike Huckabee said this evening, addressing supporters in Little Rock at 10:10 p.m. "Well, you know what, it is, and we're in it! ... Tonight we are making sure America understands that sometimes one small, smooth stone is even more effective than a whole lot of armor" (mult.)
NEP exit polls of UT Dems posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 56-42%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Obama leading 65-30% among men (43% of voters) and Clinton leading 51-49% among women.
-- Obama leading 58-36% among voters aged 30-44 (30% of voters) and 62-38% among those aged 45-59 (26% of voters). Clinton, however, leads 60-39% among those 60 years or over (28% of voters).
-- Obama leading 68-25% among registered Inds (29% of voters) and Clinton leading 51-49% among registered Dems (66% of voters).
ABC’s Sawyer reports, HRC and Obama are “only a couple thousand votes apart” in the popular vote nationally.
GOP
McCain: CT, NJ, DE, IL, NY, OK
Huckabee: WV, AR, AL
Romney: MA, UT
Tom Brokaw: "Governor Huckabee's success tonight is one more manifestation that the Republican Party suddenly has developed multiple personalities" (MSNBC).
NOTES: What to watch for as the night progresses ... MO, AZ, NM. Polls are closed in all three states. And then, of course, CA.
They aren't voting for him! This is a powerful testament to the Dodd political machine in CT, that he was able to convince so many voters not to punch ballots for him.
Hillary Clinton won about 3/4 of the Hispanic vote in NY, slightly better than elsewhere in the U.S., where she was gaining the votes of roughly six in 10 Hispanic voters (AP).
According to the HRC camp, Hispanics “delivered overwhelmingly” in NJ, where she enjoyed a 3-2 edge among Latino voters. In AZ, exit polls show HRC leading among Hispanics 52-45%. This advantage seems to be a good sign for HRC’s prospects in CA, where Hispanics constitute about 23% of the Dem electorate.
NEP exit polls of OK Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 59-29% among women (53% of voters) and 59-32% among men.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leading 48-40% among voters aged 30-44 (19% of voters), 51-36% among those aged 45-59 (27% of voters) and 69-21% among those 60 years or over (44% of voters).
-- Obama leading 52-39 among college graduates (38% of voters) and Clinton leading 71-18% among non-grads.
-- Clinton leading 64-32% among liberals (39% of voters) and 60-30% among moderates (45% of voters), but just 37-34% among conservatives (16% of voters).
NEP exit polls of TN Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47-43% among men (41% of voters) and 56-35% among women.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leading 66-24% among whites (69% of voters) and Obama leading 78-18% among blacks (27% of voters).
-- Obama leading 49-44% among voters aged 18-29 (13% of voters) and 49-41% among those aged 30-44 (26% of voters). Clinton meanwhile leads 57-37% among voters aged 45-59 (33% of voters) and 62-25% among those 60 years or over (28% of voters).
-- Obama leading 44-41% among registered Inds (21% of voters), while Clinton leads 56-36% among registered Dems (76% of voters).
John McCain takes Oklahoma. MSNBC made the projection at 9:52 pm. FNC called it at 9:57 pm. ABC called it at 10:02 pm. CNN called it at 10:04 pm.
Mitt Romney wins Utah. CNN, FNC and MSNBC all called it as soon as the polls closed at 10 pm. ABC called it 10:02 pm.
And FNC called UT for Barack Obama at 10 pm. MSNBC called it at 10:05 pm.
Obama also won North Dakota. FNC called it at 10:02 pm. MSNBC called it at 10:03 pm. CNN called it at 10:06 pm. CBS called it at 10:09 pm. ABC called it at 10:13 pm.
Obama takes Connecticut. CBS called it at 10:09 pm. FNC called it at 10:17 pm. CNN called it at 10:21 pm. MSNBC called it at 10:27 pm. ABC called it at 10:38 pm.
Obama also took Minnesota. FNC called it at 10:26 pm. CNN called it at 10:32 pm.
And Mitt Romney won North Dakota. FNC called it at 10:30 pm.
CBS' Whitaker, at Romney HQ: "No matter what happens tonight, they're telling us that they're going to go on."
"There's a big question mark about John McCain. ... This is a very fluid race" -- Romney press sec. Kevin Madden (MSNBC).
Politico’s Allen: “Without Huckabee in the race, Mitt Romney would be doing much better. … He’s also chipping away at the conservative vote in other states [aside from WV and AR]” (ABC).
Meanwhile, at Romney's "victory party" at the Boston convention center, "a few hundred supporters are packed into a small space, standing around, quietly chatting and quaffing $5.50 beers as they await the returns." However, "the mood becomes a little more boisterous when a Romney surrogate is being interviewed by television" ("The Trail").
Rothenberg Report’s Rothenberg notes exit polls in AL, IL, MO, and GA show Bill Clinton's unfavorables among Dems "are up significantly” (PBS). (Obama has won three of the four so far this evening; Missouri is still outstanding.)
Fortune’s Easton, on the negative Bill Clinton effect on HRC: "I think that took a toll on her" (FNC).
"Bill Clinton is going to be blamed for Barack Obama winning Georgia" -- Pat Buchanan (MSNBC).
"I think this evening will be a repudiation of Bill Clinton" -- Washington Post's Eugene Robinson (MSNBC).
According to CNN, Hillary Clinton is leading the Democratic delegate race with 279 to Barack Obama's 210. On the GOP side, John McCain is out front with 309, Mitt Romney trails with 99 and Mike Huckabee has converted 54. More to come...
Meanwhile, CBS News reports that HRC has 462 delegates to Obama's 394. McCain has 302; Huck, 48; and Romney, 44.
NEP exit polls of NM Dems posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 48-44%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Obama leads among women 47-43% (56% of voters) and men 50-46%.
-- Clinton leads among hispanics/latinos 61-30% (33% of voters), while Obama leads among whites 55-37% (58% of voters).
-- Obama leads 59-38% among voters aged 30-44 (14%) and 50-48% among voters aged 45-59 (37%). Clinton, however, leads 45-52% among the 42% of voters aged 60 years or older.
NEP exit polls of NY Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 56-40%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leads among whites 58-38% (71% of voters) and hispanics/latinos 74-25% (10% of voters). Obama meanwhile leads among blacks 62-36% (15% of voters).
-- Obama leads 57-43% among black women, and Clinton leads 50-44% among white men.
-- Clinton leads among 30-44 year olds 52-43% (22% of voters), 45-59 year olds 62-36% (33% of voters) and those voters 60 or over 61-36% (30% of voters).
-- Clinton leads among college graduates 55-43% (60% of voters) and among non-grads 60-35%.
-- Clinton and Obama are tied 48-48% among the 21% of voters who decided in the last three days, while Clinton leads among all others 59-39%.
NEP exit polls of AZ Dems posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama up slightly over Hillary Clinton, 47-45%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leads among hispanics/latinos 52-45% (18% of voters) and among whites 49-44% (69% of voters). Obama leads among blacks 82-10% (8% of voters).
-- Clinton leads among women 50-45% (61% of voters), while Obama leads 53-40% among men.
-- Obama leads 55-41% among 45-59 year olds (34% of voters) and 57-40% among 30-44 year olds (20% of voters).
-- Clinton leads 48-47% among registered Dems (79% of voters), while Obama leads 51-37% among registered Inds (20% of voters).
FNC made the call at 9:10 pm. ABC called it for HRC at 9:18 pm. MSNBC called it at 9:20 pm. CNN calls it at 9:49 pm.
And John McCain wins New York. FNC called it at 9:18 pm. MSNBC called it at 9:19 pm. And CNN called it at 9:20 pm. MSNBC called it at 9:32 pm. ABC called it at 9:33 pm.
Barack Obama takes Alabama. MSNBC called it for him at 9:25 pm. FNC called it for him at 9:28 pm. CNN called it at 9:30 pm and ABC called it at 9:31 pm.
Ok, with results coming in fast and furiously, let's review who has scored which states so far:
DEMS
HRC: OK, TN, AR, MA, NY
Obama: GA, IL, DE
Columnist Mark Shields: "Barack Obama is carrying male voters, in many states, by a greater margin than Hillary Clinton is carrying women voters." But he notes she may be saved by the high proportion of female voters overall who vote in Dem primaries (PBS).
GOP
McCain: CT, NJ, DE, IL
Huckabee: WV, AR, AL
Romney: MA
MSNBC's Carlson reports the McCain camp believes they will lock up the nod if they win CA.
NEP exit polls of MO Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 51-45% among women, who made up 55% of voters. Among men, Obama leads 46-42%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leading 53-38% among whites, who made up 80% of voters, and Obama leading 75-21% among blacks, who made up 15% of voters.
-- Clinton leading 51-43% among registered Dems (72% of voters), but Obama leading 59-31% among registered Inds (22% of voters).
-- 28% of voters made their primary choice in the last three days, a group which broke 46-45% for Clinton. Among the 70% of voters who decided earlier than that, Clinton also leads, 48-46%.
Laura Ingraham just stopped by the FNC studio. Ingraham, on Huckabee's performance tonight: "Huckabee is taking some of these votes away from John McCain."
Ingraham, on her issues with McCain: "I'm gonna support the Republican nominee. ... I care about conservatism and the future of conservatism." More, on McCain's possible choices for VP: "I would think he would want to build a bridge to conservatives. ... I don't think it would be a bad idea to take someone like a Mitt Romney" (FNC).
ABC’s Stephanopolous, on candidate superstitions: “Barack Obama plays basketball on Super Tuesday. He insists they build in time on election days to play basketball.”
NEP exit polls of MA Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 57-40% among women, who made up 58% of voters. Among men, Obama leads 54-42%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leads 49-47% among registered Inds, who made up one-third of primary voters. Clinton also leads 53-45% among registered Dems.
-- Obama leads 54-44% among 30-44 year olds (24% of voters) and 53-43% among 18-29 year olds (14% of voters). Clinton, however, leads 53-42% among 45-59 year olds (33% of voters) and 58-39% among voters 60 years or over (30% of voters).
-- Clinton leads 54-39% among union households (27% of voters), but leads just 49-48% among non-union households.
The networks are making some more calls before more polls close at the top of the hour:
FNC called MA for Hillary Clinton at 8:52 pm. MSNBC called MA for HRC at 8:57 pm. CNN calls it at 9:46 pm.
"They did it with the Beacon Hill boys" -- Newsweek's Howard Fineman, on how HRC beat out Obama's Kennedy support in MA (MSNBC).
New York Times' Seeyle: "Here's a hint about Mrs. Clinton's strong showing" in MA. "She way outspent" Obama on TV. "Per the Campaign Media Analysis Group: She ran 309 spots, costing $65,000, compared with 120 spots" by Obama, "who spent $27,000" ("The Caucus").
"I'd be interested to see that delegate count, but look for Hillary Clinton to take a lot of boasting rights by saying she won Massachusetts over Ted Kennedy" - NBC's Tim Russert (MSNBC).
MSNBC projects AL for Mike Huckabee at 8:53 pm. ABC projected AL for Huckabee at 9:04 pm.
NEP exit polls of DE Dems posted by MSNBC show Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 56-33% among whites, who made up 66% of voters. Among black voters (27%), Obama leads Clinton 89-11%
Exit polls also show:
-- Obama leads 54-35 among 30-44 year olds and 57-41% among 45-59 year olds, 18% and 35% of voters, respectively.
-- Obama leading among black women 88-12% and Clinton leading among white men 42-41%.
-- Obama leading 60-37% among those making more than $100,000/year (21% of voters), and Obama and Clinton tied 46-46% among all others.
NEP exit polls of OK GOPers posted by MSNBCshow John McCain barely ahead of Mike Huckabee, 34-33%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Among the 73% of voters who described themselves as evangelicals, Huckabee led McCain 39-29%, while among the rest, McCain dominated with 55% to Mitt Romney’s 20%.
-- 59% of voters said their candidate’s positions on issues was most important, and Huckabee led McCain 37-29%. Among the rest who thought personal qualities and leadership were most important, McCain led Huckabee 44-28%.
-- Voters chose the economy as the most important issue, and among those voters, McCain led 39-25% over Huckabee.
In "the most bizarre election sanfu in recent memory," 20 ballots in Chicago's 49th Ward this a.m. were cast with "'magic' invisible ink pens." Apparently "poll workers told incredulous voters -- including one spouse of an election judge -- that the stylus used for touch-screen voting was actually an inkless pen to fill out paper ballots." One voter: "I was thinking, 'This is crazy,' but when someone in authority insists, what are you supposed to do?" (Chicago Tribune).
NEP exit polls of NJ GOPers posted by MSNBCshow John McCain ahead of Mitt Romney 51-30%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Among the 16% of voters who consider themselves evangelical, McCain and Romney picked up 33% each, while Mike Huckabee took 27%.
-- McCain won overwhelmingly among those who made their decisions before the last three days, while he won by just 3% over Romney, 41-38%, among those who decided within those last three days.
-- McCain won GOPers 56-30% over Romney, while among indies, he enjoyed only an 11% gap over Romney, 42-31%.
NEP exit poll analysis by Pollster.com of the 8pm poll closes shows the Dem races as:
AL: Obama 53%, Clinton 41
CT: Obama 49%, Clinton 46%
DE: Obama 47%, Clinton 43%
IL: Obama 67%, Clinton 30%
MA: Obama 47%, Clinton 46%
MO: Clinton 44%, Obama 44%
NJ: Clinton 48%, Obama 47%
OK: Clinton 51%, Obama 27%
TN: Clinton 51%, Obama 39% (CNN calls it at 8:32)
Rove, on the current outlook for John McCain: "This is a good start for the evening. ... He has won two of the biggest [winner-take-all states]." On the current Romney outlook: "He's got an incomplete." On Huckabee's southern Bible Belt strategy: "It's working so far."
Meanwhile, Rove also weighed on McCain's decision to watch the 2/3 Superbowl in MA, calling it a missed opportunity to pick up delegates. Rove: "It was a big mistake. If I were him, I wouldn't have been watching that game in Boston. I would have been in a military community" (FNC).
NEP exit polls of TN GOPers posted by MSNBC show Mike Huckabee leading John McCain 33-29%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Among evangelical voters, who made up 73% of the electorate, Huckabee led McCain 40-27%, while among non-evangelicals, McCain led 36-30% over Mitt Romney.
-- Of the 74% who consider themselves Republicans, Huckabee led McCain 36-31%, while Romney fell to third place. Among indies, McCain led Huckabee by just 27-26%.
-- Among the 32% of voters who made their decision today, Huckabee beat McCain 34-31%.
The lack of TV net projections in MA, NJ and CT on the Dem side is obviously troubling news for the HRC camp, which viewed these states as their turf. The HRC camp seems to be pointing to CA, saying they feel confident in a big win there. [NORA McALVANAH]
NEP exit polls of CT Dems posted by MSNBC show Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 50-46%.
Exit polls also show:
-- Clinton leading 49-47% among whites, who made up 83% of primary voters, and Obama up among blacks (69-25%) and hispanics/latinos (51-41%).
-- Obama leading 49-48% among 45-59 year olds, who made up 38% of voters, but Obama and Clinton tied 48-48% among voters 60 years and older, who made up 29% of voters. Obama leads 49-45% among voters aged 30-44% (23% of all voters).
-- Clinton leads 53-40% among the 43% of voters without a college degree. Obama leads among the 57% who are college graduates, 57-41%.
In California, progressive advocates -- and the campaign of Barack Obama -- have raised the first challenges to Tuesday's voting procedures saying they "were designed to discourage and confuse millions of decline to state voters." 527 group Courage Campaign head Rick Jacobs: "This is definitely a Florida." Jacobs "said that his group, which held a conference call with the Obama campaign Tuesday, has moved to mount a legal challenge to the Los Angeles County voting system, charging that confusing procedures in that major urban area could disenfranchise the estimated 776,000 'decline to state' voters there" (San Francisco Chronicle).
Steve Weir, czar of Contra Costa County elections, says four major precincts around SF "are running out of Democratic ballots." Poll workers in the Dem "stronghold" of west Contra Costa (El Cerrito and Hercules), "the more politically conservative San Ramon Valley and the farmtown-turned-boom town Brentwood” told Weir “they're hurting” around mid-p.m. Weir said, "I've never seen anything like this before. We're hearing a lot of stories -- it's all anecdotal -- of Republicans asking for Democratic ballots." (San Francisco Chronicle).
Voting problems in CA. At least two polling places failed to open on time. "At Immaculate Heart of Mary Church in Los Angeles, where the doors were locked until 11 a.m and voting did not get underway until shortly after noon" (Los Angeles Times)
In CA, GOPers "are running a closed primary," which created confusion because they "allowed nonpartisan voters to cast ballots on Republican candidates in 2004." In San Diego County alone, "the number of voters registered as nonpartisan, or Independent, has jumped from 12 percent to 23 percent" since '04 (San Diego Union-Tribune).
FNC's Kelly: "The headline for the GOP side is how well Mike Huckabee is doing.”
CNN's J. King" "I think one of the questions was why was John McCain was spending so much time in Massachusetts."
FNC's Barnes: "John McCain is not going to wrap up the nomination tonight. ... Mitt Romney is going to find a rationale in the results tonight to find a reason to continue.”
According to his supporters, Ron Paul "will not merely do well" in AK's GOP caucuse. They believe he will win.
Paul AK field dir. Matthew Peters: "We expect to win up here. Alaska tends to go for the anti-establishment candidates or the alternative candidates, whatever you want to call them. I think we have a great chance." More: "Turnout is key. We've got a nice list of supporters, and if they turn out we're going to swamp it. If 50 percent show up, it'll be pretty close. We're pretty optimistic" ("The Trail").
In SC, Barack Obama took 25% of non-black voters 30-44 years old. In GA he took 47% of non-blacks 30-44 years old.
Among non-blacks ages 45-59 Obama did 13 points better than in SC, 36% to 23%. Among blacks in SC Obama took 82% of voters aged 30-44; in GA it was 94%.
With John Edwards out of the race, Obama and Hillary Clinton both got a huge bump among white voters. In SC, whites went 40-36-24 for Edwards-Clinton-Obama; in GA, whites went 54-43 for Clinton-Obama, an 18 and 19 point bump, respectively.
Among blacks, Edwards departure remained largely a non-factor. Blacks went 78-19% for Obama-Clinton in SC and 86-13% for Obama-Clinton in GA.
Obama and Clinton have spent more than $21M on TV advertising "in the past two weeks, outspending the remaining" GOP candidates "by more than 3-to-1."
Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Paul have spent "slightly more" than $6.3M since 1/21. Meanwhile, the new spending totals also show that Obama "is the new overall leader in television ad spending." Obama has laid out more than $31M for TV ads -- $12M since 1/21. Romney, "who was the spending leader on ads for the past year, has invested more than" $30M on TV ads, and $3.5M "in the past two weeks."
Meanwhile, HRC has spent $24.6M this election cycle on TV ads -- and more than $9M "in the past 14 days" ("Political Ticker").
CNN reports a "large and dangerous tornado" was in Memphis just south of the airport. It also hit the town of Clinton, AR, and "people were still at the polls at that time."
Bad omen at the Huckabee HQ. According to ABC's Tapper, the "power went out." And, "tornados in the state could impact turnout" ("Political Radar").
On Call sources say, meanwhile, that Missouri is getting hammered by a cold, driving rain.
Hillary Clinton campaign spin outta GA, per spokesman Phil Singer, subject "Surrogate Points" ...
"We’re excited by what we’re seeing. We have 21 states that are still outstanding where we expect to pick up a significant number of new delegates. To be sure, both campaigns have a long night ahead of them – but we feel very good about the numbers that we’re seeing. It’s very important that people in the states where the polls are still open get out and vote.
"Unlike the Obama campaign, the Clinton campaign never dedicated significant resources to Georgia. Sen. Obama spent over $500,000 dollars on ads on television and radio; we never went up on TV. The Obama campaign has 9 offices in Georgia. The Clinton campaign only has 2. Sen. Obama has had staff and significant campaign operation across the state for 8 months. Sen. Clinton only deployed staff to the state in the last couple of weeks. Polls have consistently showed Sen. Obama with wide lead over Sen Clinton. That lead has only widened over time."
We have to ask -- Did this go to the press list instead of the surrogate list, kids???
"They're already raising the estimate of delegates that they think they can win tonight" -- NBC's Todd, on the Obama camp (MSNBC).
"It was close, but in the end I voted for Obama" -- Barack Obama, casting his ballot with wife Michelle in Chicago's 4th ward this p.m. (Chicago Sun-Times).
FNC's Kristol: "If Obama can pull out victories in New Jersey and Connecticut, I think he might be on his way to winning a slight majority tonight.”
"They see victory. They believe the delegate count at the end of the night will be very close to Hillary" -- MSNBC's David Shuster, from Obama HQ.
