Analysis: The Landscape

So where are we this morning? Well, let's start with: Where aren't we?

Post Super Tuesday, we haven't a definitive nominee for either party -- though John McCain looks to be the GOP's presumptive pick based on a strong showing last night. He won nine states, including CA, AZ, IL and NY. And he has Mike Huckabee, yet again, to thank for stealing Mitt Romney's thunder. Huck picked up WV, AL, TN, AR and GA.

It might be early to posit as much, but how could McCain not select the former Arkansas governor as his running mate? A McCain/Huckabee partnership could potentially quiet the griping coming from the religious right about McCain's lack of solidly conservative credentials. Also, and more importantly, Huckabee has stayed in a race he knows he's not going to win to siphon potential support from this community. For McCain's benefit alone. Or depending on how one looks at it, to sink Romney. Huck is hugely responsible for McCain's resurgence; McCain wouldn't likely have done it without him. Thank you, Iowa. Thank you, Florida.

The Dems, however, as we know at this point, are a whole other scene. Last night was a draw at best, with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each able to claim significant victories. Clinton landed CA and NY and MA, among other states. She has been up in MA from the start, by 20 to 30 points at various turns, but with Ted Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy and Sen. John Kerry campaigning extensively there and elsewhere for Obama, Clinton's MA win is certainly something to flaunt. And flaunt, her team is. With pleasure.

On a call with reporters this morning, HRC adviser Mark Penn noted that Clinton is ahead thus far in the popular vote and scored the most delegates out of Super Tuesday. In the big states -- MA, CA, NY, NJ, AZ, TN -- her margins were strong, he said. And despite losing MO by a hair to Obama (your 'thank you' bouquet is in the mail, Claire McCaskill, xoxo, Team Obama), Penn argued that Clinton won 110 of the state's 115 districts, "debunking claims" that she can't win in rural, red state America.

"Voters sent a strong message that they’re looking for a serious, substantive candidate," Penn said. He also pitched this line about their rival -- Voters, he said, "rejected the increasingly establishment oriented campaign of Sen. Obama."

(Rich, indeed, coming from the former First Lady's team.)

While the Clinton people wouldn't offer a final delegate count out of the night or the contest, saying that they believe at this point that she's up one for Super Tuesday, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, pitched his team's very specific count to reporters. He said he believes Obama garnered 847 pledged delegates last night to Clinton's 834. For the contest so far, Plouffe said their count shows Obama at 910 and Clinton at 882.

(The Washington Post has Clinton with 845 overall and Obama with 765. Remember as well that New Mexico is still outstanding this a.m.)

Plouffe said that in total, Obama has more states, and he believes more delegates. "We think that's a powerful showing." He said Clinton had all along anticipated that Super Tuesday would decide the contest for her. "On that score, they failed miserably," he said.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

One note, Clinton has played well for sure in big states, but they are traditionally Democratic states. The MO argument made by Penn is a fair one. But a glance at the map this morning, shows Obama winning out in typically GOP territory, his mother's homestate of KS, for example, as well as CO, UT and ID. He also won AL and GA, so he does well in the south, too, largely buoyed by the backing of African American voters. Does he have the potential to play more broadly during a general election contest? Clinton's wins so far do not show the same range.

So where do we go from here?

The Chesapeake Primary -- MD/VA/DC -- is next Tuesday. Clinton is in VA over the next couple days; she's expected to campaign hard there. Obama, by contrast, will likely show better in DC and MD, where 28 percent of the state is African American. Advantage Obama, then, coming out of the Feb. 12 contests. Watch this weekend also, as voters in LA, NE and WA go to the polls. Obama has shown an organizational advantage so far in caucus states, and two of those three are caucuses. Hawaii, meanwhile, votes on Feb. 19. Also a caucus state, and there, Obama can leverage his status as favorite son.

In the long-term, both teams say they have their eyes on the WI primary Feb. 19 and the March 4 contests in OH and TX. These games will likely continue through early March, but delegate bounties in Ohio and Texas could make the difference.