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Stats For Thought

February 13, 2008 3:15 PM | |

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In the light of day, some analysis of last night's MD and VA exit polls …

-- Did they come out just for him? Exit polls show that the less often 2/12 Dem primary voters had gone to the polls in the past, the more likely they were to vote for Barack Obama yesterday. Obama beat Hillary Clinton among those voters who had previously voted in a presidential primary MD 56-39%/VA 62-37%, those who had previously voted but never in a primary MD 65-32%/VA 66-33% and those who had never voted before MD 70-30%/VA 72-28%.

-- Did Rush Limbaugh cut John McCain's VA victory to single digits? Mike Huckabee won VA GOP voters who frequently listen to conservative talk radio 51-36%, while McCain prevailed among all other groups. He took occasional listeners 50-38% (29% of voters), won 56-36% among those who rarely listen (22% of voters) and finished 58-36% among those who never listen (18% of voters). In MD, however, where McCain won by more than 25% of the vote, all of these demographics broke his way; McCain took frequent listeners 49-28 (28% of voters), occasional listeners 56-29% (32% of voters), those who listen rarely 57-33% (20% of voters) and those who never listen 62-26% (19% of voters).

-- Is Obama making inroads in the Hispanic/Latino community on the eve of the Texas primary? Although they comprised just 5% of Dem primary voters, Obama won Hispanics/Latinos 54-46% in VA, but lost them 55-45% in MD. VA marked only the third '08 primary contest (where data is available) in which Obama carried Hispanics/Latinos; he previously won them 53-43% in CT (6% of voters) and 50-49% in his home state of IL, where they represent 17% of voters.

-- A manager, not a leader? Given the choice of Huckabee, McCain, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, 26% of VA GOP voters and 27% of MD GOP voters chose Romney as the most qualified candidate to manage the economy, despite the fact that he suspended his campaign nearly a week ago.

-- Did they like him before the media narrative came full circle? Thirty-four percent of MD GOP voters and 37% of VA GOP voters said they settled on their White House candidate more than a month ago, groups which broke 49-26% and 49-37%, respectively, for McCain.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)