Tipping Well

Barack Obama’s big win in Wisconsin on 2/19 suggested a Democratic nomination that had reached the tipping point. For the first time, one candidate found a way to take votes from the other’s base. Obama carried almost all demographic groups,including those that Hillary Clinton had owned up until that point, such as voters making less than $50,000/year and those without a college education. But, it also marked something of a tipping point for the Clinton campaign. Their decision to attack Obama on national security in ads was first time that she explicitly questioned his ability to handle a crisis. And, from the early exit polls, it looked as if those attacks worked.

Clinton carried the 21% of Texas Democrats who said they made up their mind within the last three days by a whopping 23 points (61-38%). In Ohio, she carried those voters by 11-points, 55-44%.

The big question now: Will she continue to hammer Obama, even if it creates serious rift in the party and causes lasting damage to the potential nominee? With McCain now free to concentrate full-time on setting the stage for the general election, will pressure among party insiders be enough to keep the Democratic nomination from going nuclear?
(AMY WALTER)