Make That 236 For Dems
The third time proved to be the disaster for GOPers, as Prentiss Co. Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D) defeated Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) in tonight’s MS-01 special election, according to the AP. Childers, who will fill the remainder of Sen/ex-Rep. Roger Wicker’s (R) term, leads 51-49%, with 80% of the precincts reporting.
The House makeup is now 236 Dems and 199 GOPers.
This is the third seat GOPers have lost in special elections this year, and symbolically, it was the biggest one. Not only was it the safest GOP seat of the trio – Pres. Bush took 62% here in ’04 – it was also the one in which the party went all out in an effort to save it. Every major MS GOP politician campaigned for Davis, and VP Cheney parachuted into the CD for an election eve rally.
With all of this very visible GOP activity in the CD, the loss represents a referendum on the party. In previous contests, the GOP could blame poor candidates and other factors. In MS-01, while Davis wasn’t exactly the most polished of candidates, he certainly wasn’t unacceptable, as Woody Jenkins (R) and Jim Oberweis (R) were in LA-06 and IL-14, respectively.
Even though the ballot was non-partisan, meaning that no party appeared next to the candidate’s name, everyone was familiar with the party IDs of the candidates by the time this election rolled around. First of all, this was the fourth election for this district since Mar. 11, so voters knew their candidates.
And with the nearly $5M spent among all the factions in the contest – much of it linking Childers to Barack Obama and other Dem leaders – voters knew who was a Dem and who was a GOPer.
One of the reasons for Davis’ loss is geography. Davis hails from the suburbs just south of Memphis. While his home county, DeSoto, is the CDs most populous, voters in the traditional center of the CD, Tupelo, wanted to keep control of the seat. The tug of war between east and west was again won by the east, as it was in the previous three races. In Lee Co. (Tupelo), Childers piled up an 1.8K vote win, while in DeSoto Co., Davis took 9.9K votes. In the end, though, that wasn’t enough to overcome Childers’ advantage in Lee Co. and the rural counties that make up his base.
Childers campaigned as a conservative Dem, and efforts to link him to Obama and other Dems apparently failed. Voters here are used to voting for Dems in local races – the state legislature is 61% Dem – and Childers proved to be an acceptable alternative to the geographically “wrong” Davis.
But the bottom line is that despite the challenges Davis faced, he still should’ve won this race. In a normal year, this is a snoozer for the GOPer. But this appears to be the farthest thing from a “normal year,” and Davis paid the price. The two will meet again, however, in the fall. Then, Davis’ prospects appear much better, as he’ll be paired with John McCain, who will likely overwhelmingly win the CD.
(TIM SAHD)
Wow.
GOP disaffection is very very real.
This is great news for everyone -- but especially Obama. And horrible news for any politicians in the GOP tied to George W. Bush -- which is all of them.
Uh, not the 3rd straight Special Election loss for the GOP. The GOP won LA-1 just a week ago.
It doesn't say straight loss.
And who cares what order. It's three huge losses in three very Republican districts.
Not 3rd straight, but the 3rd straight Dem pick-up in competitive races. Each more "Republican" than the next.
In MS-1, Childers -- the Dem -- won by 8%.
8%!
Huge.
(It said straight loss when I added the comment!)
And the post still needs correction. GOP has lost 5 Special Elections this year. IL-14, IN-7, CA-12, LA-6, MS-1.
Matt - If you want to get technical, the GOP has lost SIX special elections this CYCLE - you forgot about MA-05. The only special election the Democrats failed to retain/pickup was LA-01.
Childers is more of a Republican than John McCain is in many ways. He ran as fast as he could away from Obama. He ran on anti-abortion pro-life and gun issues. Also, there was a lot of nasty local politics going on there.
Something IS going on here, but it's not the obvious. The results seem to sharpen some of the issues: conservative positions win in Republican districts, but party does not. Even party stalwarts make no difference to voters this year.
Voters in Republican districts are very, very informed this year. Trying to paint an opponent does not work. Trying to sell a message without substance does not work. This may well be because Republican voters are feeling betrayed by their party and their leaders. Boehner and company don't seem to get it quite yet.
At first blush, the reverse seems to be true in the Democratic races: Obama soars when he doesn't speak to the issues but to hope; he crashes when he tries to parse issues. When Hillary ticks off her list of seventeen critical issues, she plummets, but when she films a phone or a drink, she rises. The media gets side-tracked into global gender or race questions, and misses the actual messages.
But what this may portend is a trend toward dismissal of party line messages. A recent Washington Post Magazine article predicted in passing President Heath Shuler a few years hence. Conservative Dem, riding the crest of the immigration enforcement wave. This is back to the 80's, where some southern Dems were more conservative than most northern Reps. This isn't 2006, where some very liberal Dems won new seats for the first time in a long time.
In election technical terms, it's even more confuzzled. Contrary to past efforts involving motivation elections, where you simply try to get the faithful to the polls, now they seem to get themselves there. But they don't hew to flyers or sound bites when they get there.
Lots of fascinating trends here. Don't get locked into the obvious and probably wrong one.
Childers actually did NOT run from Obama. You people need to look at the facts on the ground. Black turnout was the deciding factor in this race. Childers got the endorsement of Obama 3 weeks ago then the DCCC sent out an ad claiming davis was a member of the KKK. Typical Dem race baiting. and it worked. Turnout was huge for a run off election for a special election.
Childers took $$$ from Pelosi, her PAC and Barney Frank. What part of any of that is conservative?
Childers actually did NOT run from Obama. You people need to look at the facts on the ground. Black turnout was the deciding factor in this race. Childers got the endorsement of Obama 3 weeks ago then the DCCC sent out an ad claiming davis was a member of the KKK. Typical Dem race baiting. and it worked. Turnout was huge for a run off election for a special election.
Childers took $$$ from Pelosi, her PAC and Barney Frank. What part of any of that is conservative?