Super Tuesday, From The West

The biggest House primary day of the year last p.m. produced few surprises, and that continued in the western states of CA and NM.

In one of the ugliest primaries of this cycle, in CA-04, state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) defeated ex-Rep. Doug Ose (R), 54-39%, in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Doolittle (R). Newspapers proclaimed the race the "pragmatist [Ose] versus the conservative [McClintock]."

Ose spent $2.8M of his own cash on the race, airing ads accusing McClintock of being a carpetbagger (McClintock represents a S. CA district in the legislature, but lives in Sacramento), and accused him of taking a per diem, while living just miles from the Capitol. McClintock targeted Ose for his spending record while in Cong, and ran versus the liberal candidate.

Just after entering the race, McClintock released a poll showing him leading Ose, 43-11%. While McClintock didn't win by that large a margin, he still did cover the spread nicely against a very well-financed and focused opponent.

He'll now face '06 nominee Charlie Brown (D) in the fall, and while Brown released a poll this week showing him leading McClintock 42-40%, McClintock starts out with the edge, due to the GOP nature of this CD. But it's by no means a safe hold for GOPers, as Brown will have all the money he'll need to win the seat. And McClintock will need to heal the rifts within the GOP caused by the primary. Ose didn't endorse McClintock, but said he'd work to keep the seat in GOP hands, a good signal for GOPers.

In the southern part of the state, a Duncan D. Hunter (R) will replace Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA 52). The younger Hunter, a Marine captain, easily sailed past Santee Councilor Brian Jones and San Diego Co. Board of Ed. Pres. Bob Watkins (R), 73-16-8%. He's heavily favored in the general election against ret. Navy SEAL Mike Lumpkin (R).

NM has three open seats, and each had contested primaries. But like the other contests last p.m., there were few surprises.

In NM-02, restauranteur/'02 candidate Ed Tinsley (R) defeated a field of GOPers to claim the nod. After Rep. Steve Pearce (R) announced his retirement, many considered Tinsley the defacto frontrunner, since he came close to defeating Pearce for the open seat in '02. But he didn't immediately catch fire, and that enabled others, like ex-Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman (R) and rancher/ret. banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (R), to sneak into contention. But Tinsley soundly defeated Newman and Dunn, 31-21-20%, respectively.

Newman was aided in his efforts largely by the Realtors, who put nearly $1M into the race on his behalf. The other two candidates invested heavily into their campaigns, with Tinsley adding $235K of his own cash, while Dunn put in over $582K of his own money into his campaign.

Tinsley will face businessman Don Teague (D) in the general. Teague also invested over $750K of his own cash into the race to defeat Dona Ana Commis. Don McCamley (D). Teague is considered socially conservative, and in this CD, that's a winning prescription for a Dem. Teague starts off as an underdog against Tinsley in this GOP-leaning CD, but Dems will certainly put an effort in here.

And finally, in NM-03, NM Public Regulation Commis. Ben Ray Lujan (D) survived a rough couple of weeks to defeat developer Don Wiviott (D), 42-25%, in the race to replace retiring Rep. Tom Udall (D). Wiviott dumped over $1.3M into the race, and used some of that in the final weeks to attack Lujan's lack of participation on a state health board, for which he got paid $90K. And during a debate, ex-NM Indian Affairs Sec. Bennie Shendo (D) questioned Lujan's sexuality, a charge Lujan denied. Still, he was the frontrunner from the beginning, and will be heavily favored over contractor Dan East (R) in the fall.

And, as expected, Bernalillo Co. Sheriff Darren White (R) will face Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich (D) in the race to replace Rep. Healther Wilson (R-NM 01). Each won their primaries comfortably, and will face off in a race that'll receive nat'l attention. White starts off with the edge, but the bad nat'l enviro for GOPers will certainly be a factor in this very marginal CD.

(TIM SAHD)