Battle For The Electoral College, The More Things Change ...
The past week saw a steady flow of new WH '08 state polling data with 15 new surveys in 11 states, including 10 battleground state releases. Despite the flurry of new polls, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain 292 EVs to 234 EVs (with 12 EVs up for grabs) in The Hotline's Electoral College estimation -- identical to the total in our 7/17 update.
Within each candidate's electoral total, however, some movement has occurred. MN and NH -- swing states previously classified as solid Obama because of his statistically significant leads -- shifted to lean Obama this week. Two new NH polls by ARG (R) and UNH, as well as the latest Quinnipiac Univ. survey in MN, all saw Obama's lead move within the margin of error. These updates gave Obama a solid EV total of 227 compared with 241 on 7/17; accordingly, he now has 14 lean EVs compared with his previous total of zero.
State polls this week showed a similar trend for McCain. FL and its crucial 27 EVs -- which Strategic Vision (R) showed 6/29 as solid McCain -- became lean McCain as the result of a new ARG (R) poll. Meanwhile new Research 2000 polls moved AK from lean McCain to solid McCain and moved ND out of the Bush/Bush projection to lean McCain. McCain now has 134 solid EVs compared with 158 on 7/17; he also has 50 lean EVs compared with 23 on 7/17.
Interestingly, a Quinnipiac Univ. poll released this week saw CO move from solid Obama to lean McCain; a subsequent sample by Frederick Polls (D), however, reversed it to solid Obama. Similarly, a new poll by EPIC-MRA saw MI move from solid Obama to lean Obama, but was superseded later in the week by a Quinnipiac Univ. poll which moved it back to solid Obama.
Finally, new polls in NC by Tel Opinion Research (R) and MS by Research 2000 confirmed these states as lean McCain and solid McCain, respectively; two new NJ polls, as well as a Quinnipiac Univ. survey in WI, all reaffirmed solid Obama classifications.
As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 16 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results.
(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB and CARRIE DINDINO)
For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.
Electoral Distribution
McCAIN STATES OBAMA STATES TOSS-UP STATES M Lean McCain 50 O Lean Obama 14 -- 12 M+ Solid McCain 134 O+ Solid Obama 227 M* Bush/Bush 50 O* Gore/Kerry 51 Total 234 Total 292
State-By-State Polling
St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER DATE SAMPLE +/- LEAD AL 9 49% 36% AL Ed. Assoc. 6/25-7/1 536 LVs 4.2% M+ AK 3 51 41 Research 2000 7/14-16 600 LVs 4.0 M+ - 44 42 GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10 600 LVs 4.0 M AR 6 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* AZ 10 38 28 AZ State Univ. 6/20-21 175 RVs 7.4 M+ - 50 39 Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20 630 RVs 3.9 M+ CA 55 30 54 Field Poll 7/8-14 672 LVs 3.8 O+ - 40 47 LATimes/KTLA 5/20-21 705 RVs 3.7 O+ CO 9 41 45 Frederick (D) 7/16-22 700 LVs 3.7 O+ - 46 44 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1425 LVs 2.6 M CT 7 35 57 Research 2000 6/30-7/2 600 LVs 4.0 O+ - 35 56 Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29 2437 LVs 2.0 O+ DE 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* DC 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* FL 27 47 45 ARG (R) 7/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M - 49 41 StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29 1200 LVs 2.8 M+ - 43 47 Quinnipiac Unv 6/9-16 1453 LVs 2.6 O+ GA 15 51 43 StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29 800 LVs 3.5 M+ HI 4 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* ID 4 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* IL 21 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* IN 11 47 38 IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1 601 RVs 4.0 M+ IA 7 Results '00/'04 Gore/Bush -- KS 6 49 36 TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1 3004 RVs 1.8 M+ - 45 41 CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8 808 LVs 3.4 M+ - 51 40 Research 2000 6/2-4 600 LVs 4.0 M+ KY 8 50 31 V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17 601 LVs 4.0 M+ LA 9 52 36 SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28 600 LVs 4.0 M+ ME^ 4 32 46 PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18 400 Adl 4.9 O+ MD 10 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* MA 12 30 53 Suffolk Univ. 6/8-10 500 RVs 4.4 O+ MI 17 42 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1684 LVs 2.4 O+ - 41 43 EPIC-MRA 7/13-15 600 LVs 4.0 O MN 10 44 46 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1261 LVs 2.8 O MS 6 51 42 Research 2000 7/21-23 600 LVs 4.0 M+ MO 11 43 48 Research 2000 7/7-10 800 LVs 3.5 O+ MT 3 47 39 Mason-Dixon 5/19-21 625 LVs 3.9 M+ NE^ 5 57 29 Research 2000 5/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 M+ NV 5 44 42 Mason-Dixon 6/9-11 625 RVs 3.9 M NH 4 45 47 ARG (R) 7/19-21 600 LVs 4.0 O - 43 46 UNH SurveyCntr 7/11-20 475 LVs 4.5 O - 42 39 Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2 401 RVs 4.9 M NJ 15 36 50 MonmouthU/Gan. 7/17-21 698 LVs 3.7 O+ - 38 47 StrtegicVis(R) 7/11-13 800 LVs 3.5 O+ - 33 49 FDU/PublicMind 6/17-22 589 RVs 4.0 O+ - 39 45 Quinnipiac Unv 6/5-8 1473 RVs 2.6 O+ NM 5 Results '00/'04 Gore/Bush -- NY 31 37 50 Siena College 7/7-10 626 RVs 3.9 O+ - 32 51 New York Times 6/6-11 931 RVs 3.2 0+ - 36 50 Quinnipiac Unv 6/3-8 1388 RVs 2.6 O+ NC 15 43 40 Tel Opinion(R) 7/14-16 800 LVs 3.5 M ND 3 45 42 Research 2000 7/21-23 500 LVs 4.4 M OH 20 42 48 Quinnipiac Unv 6/9-16 1396 LVs 2.6 O+ OK 7 52 38 Research 2000 6/9-11 600 LVs 4.0 M+ OR 7 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* PA 21 40 52 Quinnipiac Unv 6/9-16 1511 LVs 2.5 O+ RI 4 25 53 Opinion Factor 6/18-27 500 RVs 4.4 O+ SC 8 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* SD 3 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* TN 11 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* TX 34 52 36 Baselice (R) 5/20-25 1005 RVs 3.1 M+ UT 5 57 29 Dan Jones Assc 6/16-19 405 RVs 4.9 M+ VT 3 Results '00/'04 Gore/Kerry O* VA 13 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* WA 11 37 47 Moore Info (R) 7/9-10 400 RVs 4.9 O+ - 39 47 Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26 1200 RVs 2.8 O+ - 38 44 Elway Poll 5/26-29 405 RVs 4.9 O+ WV 5 Results '00/'04 Bush/Bush M* WI 10 39 50 Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22 1094 LVs 3.0 O+ - 37 50 Univ. of WI 6/8-10 506 LVs 4.4 O+ WY 3 53 40 Research 2000 5/20-21 500 LVs 4.4 M+
Key
SYMBOL STATES M McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E. M+ McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E. M* No Current Polling Data AND Voted Bush Twice O Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E. O+ Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E. O* No Current Polling Data AND Voted Both Gore & Kerry -- Most Recent Poll Tied OR No Data & Voted Bush Once
^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.
(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
