Battle For The Electoral College: Hey (Three) Nineteen

With eight new state polls out since last week's 7/25 update, Barack Obama's Electoral College lead has increased while his margins in key battleground states have decreased. The Hotline estimates Obama now has 319 EVs to John McCain's 207 -- a 27 EV swing from Obama's 292-234 EV lead on 7/25.

But Obama interestingly now has 207 solid EVs and 61 lean EVs; last week he had 227 solid EVs and only 14 lean EVs. McCain meanwhile has 142 solid EVs and 23 lean EVs; one week ago, he had only 134 solid EVs but 50 lean EVs. Twelve EVs remain toss-ups.

The 27 EV switch was the result of a Quinnipiac Univ. poll released this a.m. showing Obama with a statistically insignificant 46-44% lead in FL. Previously, two GOP pollsters had shown FL as lean and solid McCain, respectively; in Quinnipiac's previous FL survey, completed 6/16, Obama had a statistically significant 47-43% lead.

In addition to the new FL numbers, Quinnipiac shows Obama leading 46-44% in OH and 49-42% in PA -- down from his leads of 6% in OH and 12% in PA on 6/16. While the narrow margin in OH moves its 20 EVs from solid Obama to lean Obama, PA's 21 EVs remain solid Obama. Likewise, a new Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Obama with a solid (9%) lead in PA.

Meanwhile a new Research 2000 survey in SC -- the first poll taken in the state -- shows McCain leading Obama 53-40% and moves SC from the Bush/Bush projection to solid McCain. Finally, new polls out in CA, ME and WA all confirm these states as Obama strongholds.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 15 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results. For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.

(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB and CARRIE DINDINO)

For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.

Electoral Distribution

McCAIN STATES           OBAMA STATES           TOSS-UP STATES
M  Lean McCain    23    O  Lean Obama    61    --        12
M+ Solid McCain  142    O+ Solid Obama  207
M* Bush/Bush      42    O* Gore/Kerry    51
Total            207    Total           319

State-By-State Polling

St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER       DATE       SAMPLE   +/-  LEAD
AL  9  49% 36% AL Ed. Assoc.  6/25-7/1    536 LVs 4.2% M+
AK  3  51  41  Research 2000  7/14-16     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      44  42  GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10      600 LVs 4.0  M
AR  6          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
AZ 10  38  28  AZ State Univ. 6/20-21     175 RVs 7.4  M+
-      50  39  Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20     630 RVs 3.9  M+
CA 55  35  50  PPIC           7/8-22     1401 LVs 2.6  O+
-      30  54  Field Poll     7/8-14      672 LVs 3.8  O+
-      40  47  LATimes/KTLA   5/20-21     705 RVs 3.7  O+
CO  9  41  45  Frederick (D)  7/16-22     700 LVs 3.7  O+
-      46  44  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1425 LVs 2.6  M
CT  7  35  57  Research 2000  6/30-7/2    600 LVs 4.0  O+
-      35  56  Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29    2437 LVs 2.0  O+
DE  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
DC  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
FL 27  44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1248 LVs 2.8  O
-      47  45  ARG (R)        7/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      49  41  StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29    1200 LVs 2.8  M+
GA 15  51  43  StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29     800 LVs 3.5  M+
HI  4          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
ID  4          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
IL 21          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
IN 11  47  38  IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1    601 RVs 4.0  M+
IA  7          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Bush     --
KS  6  49  36  TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1   3004 RVs 1.8  M+
-      45  41  CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8       808 LVs 3.4  M+
-      51  40  Research 2000  6/2-4       600 LVs 4.0  M+
KY  8  50  31  V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17     601 LVs 4.0  M+
LA  9  52  36  SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28     600 LVs 4.0  M+
ME^ 4  31  51  CrticalInsghts 6/1-27      602 RVs 4.0  O+
-      32  46  PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18     400 Adl 4.9  O+
MD 10          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
MA 12  30  53  Suffolk Univ.  6/8-10      500 RVs 4.4  O+
MI 17  42  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1684 LVs 2.4  O+
-      41  43  EPIC-MRA       7/13-15     600 LVs 4.0  O
MN 10  44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1261 LVs 2.8  O
MS  6  51  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     600 LVs 4.0  M+
MO 11  43  48  Research 2000  7/7-10      800 LVs 3.5  O+
MT  3  47  39  Mason-Dixon    5/19-21     625 LVs 3.9  M+
NE^ 5  57  29  Research 2000  5/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  M+
NV  5  44  42  Mason-Dixon    6/9-11      625 RVs 3.9  M
NH  4  45  47  ARG (R)        7/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      43  46  UNH SurveyCntr 7/11-20     475 LVs 4.5  O
-      42  39  Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2    401 RVs 4.9  M
NJ 15  36  50  MonmouthU/Gan. 7/17-21     698 LVs 3.7  O+
-      38  47  StrtegicVis(R) 7/11-13     800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      33  49  FDU/PublicMind 6/17-22     589 RVs 4.0  O+
-      39  45  Quinnipiac Unv 6/5-8      1473 RVs 2.6  O+
NM  5          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Bush     --
NY 31  37  50  Siena College  7/7-10      626 RVs 3.9  O+
-      32  51  New York Times 6/6-11      931 RVs 3.2  0+
-      36  50  Quinnipiac Unv 6/3-8      1388 RVs 2.6  O+
NC 15  43  40  Tel Opinion(R) 7/14-16     800 LVs 3.5  M
ND  3  45  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     500 LVs 4.4  M
OH 20  44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1229 LVs 2.8  O
OK  7  52  38  Research 2000  6/9-11      600 LVs 4.0  M+
OR  7          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
PA 21  42  49  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1317 LVs 2.7  O+
-      40  49  StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27    1200 LVs 2.8  O+
RI  4  25  53  Opinion Factor 6/18-27     500 RVs 4.4  O+
SC  8  53  40  Research 2000  7/22-23     500 LVs 4.4  M+
SD  3          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
TN 11          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
TX 34  52  36  Baselice (R)   5/20-25    1005 RVs 3.1  M+
UT  5  57  29  Dan Jones Assc 6/16-19     405 RVs 4.9  M+
VT  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
VA 13          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
WA 11  37  48  StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27     800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      37  47  Moore Info (R) 7/9-10      400 RVs 4.9  O+
-      39  47  Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26    1200 RVs 2.8  O+
-      38  44  Elway Poll     5/26-29     405 RVs 4.9  O+
WV  5          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
WI 10  39  50  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1094 LVs 3.0  O+
-      37  50  Univ. of WI    6/8-10      506 LVs 4.4  O+
WY  3  53  40  Research 2000  5/20-21     500 LVs 4.4  M+

Key

SYMBOL STATES
M      McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
M+     McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
M*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Bush Twice
O      Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
O+     Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
O*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Both Gore & Kerry
--     Most Recent Poll Tied OR No Data & Voted Bush Once

^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.

(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)