August 2008

MINNEAPOLIS -- With a Dixieland band, free booze and bountiful eats, and red, white and blue balloons in abundance, it sure did look, sound and smell like a party.

As Gulf Coast residents prepared to bear the brunt of Hurricane Gustav, delegates at the Republican Convention gathered for a boisterous welcome reception -- even as they digested John McCain's order to tone down the festivities.

"You can't look like you're celebrating if people are hurting," said Madeleine Gelsinon, an alternate delegate from Sudbury, Mass.

Convention attendees interviewed by National Journal and The Hotline expressed an understanding of McCain's decision to limit official business tomorrow. And they said they would accept any move to shorten the convention, if necessary, to allow the nation to focus on the recovery effort along the Gulf.

"We're going to try to get the business done tomorrow and then go into volunteer mode," said June Burkhart, a national committeewoman from Alaska.

David Boyle, Alaska chairman of the McCain campaign, said he's already changed his expectations for convention week and that the people affected by Gustav are "a priority" in the "minds and hearts" of delegates.

"If you do the right thing, in the long run it works for the best," Boyle said.

Delegates browsed a sprawling exhibit of presidential paraphernalia, from Ronald Reagan's black, bulletproof Cadillac limo (circa 1986) to a collection of First Lady gowns to a model of Air Force One. A life size Franklin Delano Roosevelt sat perched in his black and green 1926 Cadillac, his cane and his dog by his side.

The alcohol, by the way, was provided by convention sponsors Anheuser-Busch and Diageo.

Despite the hoopla of the evening, the red carpet crowd said they will wait for news of the storm's impact and for instructions from the national party about what's next. Typically for delegates, conventions are usually meticulously planned, with each hour of each day packed with policy events, floor action and evening parties. But this one is shaping up to be uncertain. And delegates said they're patient, they'll take each day as it comes.

Dick Stoffel, another Alaska delegate, said he's "thankful that we're in a position to actually honor these people."

"They need our support," he said.

(JENNIFER SKALKA and BARA VAIDA)

This image was brandished on stage by congressional candidate Mark Schauer before the Obama/Biden rally today in Battle Creek, MI, AKA Cereal City.

They're Gr-r-reat!

MINNEAPOLIS -- In the Twin cities, third party candidates (and the partiers that came along with them) aren’t planning to follow the GOP’s lead when it comes to Hurricane Gustav. Representatives from Bob Barr's and Ralph Nader's camps said they plan to go ahead with their plans this week, for now, despite the GOP’s decision to tone things down in the Excel Center.

“If they want to cancel because they don’t want it to look like they’re having a party while a hurricane hits, that’s up to them,” said Andrew Davis, Media Coordinator for the Barr campaign, referring to the GOPers gathered in MN. Barr’s planning to go ahead with a full schedule of engagements during the convention, including press avails and speeches.

For the Nader camp, it’s more of a waiting game. Nader has a rally similar to the one he held in Denver scheduled for 9/4, the same day originally planned for John McCain’s acceptance speech. Campaign spokesman Jason Kafoury said that Nader has not made any plans to change the event in the wake of the GOP convention announcement, but could alter his schedule if things continue to change for the Republicans.

“We’re going to closely track what the Republicans are doing,” Kafoury said. “If McCain’s going ahead, we’re going ahead.”

Organizers behind the other political outsider event taking place this week, Rep. Ron Paul ( R )’s 9/2 Campaign For Liberty Rally, are also planning to move forward despite the GOP’s changes to the convention schedule. “Thousands of people around the country paid a lot of money to come up here for this, and we’re going to continue as planned,” said Jesse Benton, spokesman for the Campaign For Liberty.

Benton said Paul had no opinion on the GOP’s convention decisions, but added that Paul, who represents a gulf coast district in TX, thinks that St. Paul might be the best place for politicians as Gustav heads into shore.

“The last thing local responders need is a lot of federal elected officials walking around and getting in their way,” he said. “If Dr. Paul’s presence could do anything to change the [Gustav] situation, he’d be there.”

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

Strong conservative credentials? Foreign Policy experience? A reputation for bucking the political establishment? Forget all that: What matters for some in the political world is that Sarah Palin - a cross between the actress in the “Hot for Teacher" video and Tina Fey—is a brilliant choice because she’s a babe. That’s right; she basically bedazzled the ticket with glitter, sequins, and a twirling baton in the form of an elk hunting rifle.

Here’s a sampling of the chatter over Palin’s many “qualifications” for the job:

Rush Limbaugh: “We’re the ones with the babe on our ticket” -- (CNN, 8/29).

Jimmy Ng, a retired member of the Coast Guard: “She is a strong woman who can wear a skirt and be proud of it” (New York Times, 8/31).

Newsweek’s Karen Breslau: “As a journalist, and a female one at that, I am embarrassed to admit that the first thing that struck me about her was that she's so, well, striking” (Newsweek.com. 8/30).

CNN's Paul Begala: "She's a charming person. She's well spoken. She's attractive “(CNN, 8/29).

TOLEDO, OH - Joe Biden is already conceding one thing to Sarah Palin.

"Well there's obvious differences," he joked during a roundtable discussion on the economy this afternoon. "She's good looking."

Biden was trying to make a serious point about the different perspective he said each ticket has on the economy, but the crowd began to chuckle when he said there was a "gigantic" difference between Barack Obama and John McCain and himself and "my vice presidential opponent." After complimenting Palin's looks, someone in the crowd shouted back that Biden was "gorgeous."

"Oh, I tell you what! Would you make sure Jill hears that?" he replied. "I haven't heard that in a long, long, long time."

He added that hanging out with a "lean, young-looking" Obama was starting to make him "feel pretty old." But he continued on with his intended message, which was that the Democratic team would work to give the middle class a "fighting chance."

"John McCain looks to the past," he said, saying he'd give tax breaks for corporations and oil interest instead of working people. "John McCain's proposal - he leaves out 100 million American families without a single red cent," he said. "Barack Obama's going to give 95 percent of the American people a tax cut."

Biden began by saying he offered a prayer at morning mass for the people of the Gulf Coast, and urged those in the audience to do the same.

"These folks have been through, you know, they've been through hell, and pray God this Gustav decides to take a turn or something, but it doesn't look real good now," he said.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

8/31, 8:45am CT: Set of "Fox News Sunday"

Pre-show observations: While waiting to enter the Xcel Center, we found the security staff to be friendly; they offered seating, observing that "those heels must not be very comfortable" to stand in.

Show Guests: John and Cindy McCain (pre-taped 8/30), and the Sunday regulars: Fox's Brit Hume, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson and NPR's Juan Williams.

Scene: In a suite overlooking the convo floor.

After making our way to the "Fox Experience" tent, we were re-directed to the Xcel Center. After being told by security we didn't have the proper credentials to gain access to the center, we were saved by the kind people at Fox, who provided us with borrowed credentials to sit in on the last 10 minutes of the "Fox News Sunday" roundtable.

More after the jump, including pictures and an interview with Chris Wallace, who reflects on the DNC's Denver show and considers political fallout for the GOP as Hurricane Gustav interrupts the party's convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX)

MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL -- Sen. John McCain announced a few moments ago that he has asked the GOP to modify tomorrow's convention activities as the Gulf Coast braces for Hurricane Gustav.

Mike Duncan, chairman of the RNC, said the convention will convene tomorrow exclusively for official business: to adopt rules, elect officers and sign off on the party platform.

"Those are essentials for us to be able to constitute before we can nominate the president and the vice president," Duncan said.

Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said the convention will convene at 3 p.m. and adjourn after all "practical events occur." The roll call to nominate McCain and Sarah Palin for veep will not occur tomorrow.

He promised daily briefing sessions with the press to provide updates about how the convention will proceed, but cautioned that the situation in the wake of the storm will determine plans on a day-to-day basis.

"People should be more concerned about that than a political campaign, and I think that's the way we're going to let the chips fall," Davis said.

Davis said the campaign has chartered a flight to take Louisiana delegates back home. He said as well that the GOP is considering how to raise money for storm recovery efforts.

Though reporters pressed for information about McCain's arrival in Minneapolis, Davis said the senator would, of course, like to attend but that there are larger circumstances in play.

"We're not making any commitments past 5:30 tomorrow afternoon," Davis said.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

.... when there's a Palin around.

Chuck Heath, right, and his wife, Sally, watch in their home in Wasilla, AK, as their daughter, Sarah Palin, was chosen by John McCain as his running mate and choice for vice president. And the AP was there to capture the moment.

Must keep them warm during those cold AK winters!

The AP is reporting that President Bush and VP Cheney will skip the GOP convention due to Hurricane Gustav. FOX, meanwhile, is reporting that Gulf Coast delegates are being chartered home.

CNN's King: The RNC must be gaveled into order Monday so that they can officially nominate John McCain. But the leading proposal being considered by the GOP is to shorten the convention by a day at least. "There's no doubt there will be significant changes" in the program, King said.

WASHINGTON, Pa. - Gov. Sarah Palin, the presumptive Republican vice presidential candidate, said today she is up to the task of being president, telling her hometown newspaper her selection was a "very pleasant surprise."

Palin told the Anchorage Daily News she did not know she was the vice presidential candidate when she traveled to Arizona last week, believing others were being considered as well. McCain popped the question, so to speak, at his Sedona compound, sitting on the lawn.

"When the conversation wrapped up, he said, yes, would I like to join him in this?, and I said, 'If I can help the country and if I can help you on the ticket, absolutely, I would be honored," she said.

Palin said the campaign "had been doing a tremendous amount of background work" on her and other candidates for many months. But she said she believed being selected "was out of the realm of possibility."

"I knew that that senator and I, we would have sort of an inherent connection, though, with our mission being reform and putting the people first before any party or personal interest," she said. "I have known all along that he as such a maverick, that we would have a connection. But I didn't know that he knew enough about me to seriously be a consideration."

Palin said she will "still be serving Alaskans every day," though she will likely be in the contiguous U.S. states.

"Alaska will be allowed to contribute more to our great country and they will be allowed to do that because I, if elected, I will be in a position of opening the eyes of the country to what it is that Alaska is all about and what Alaska has to offer," she said. "So I'm happy to and very honored to be asked to do this."

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

Given this campaign's corrosive effect on our short-term memory, we've been digging through our own archives in search of overlooked nuggets of Sarah Palin coverage. Among the highlights to surface from Wake-Up Call!, Last Call! and the Hotline's People section:

"I can report to those of you who couldn't join us last night that Governor Palin was the first governor to dance, the only governor to do the Electric Slide" -- PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), at the closing session of the NGA Conference in Philly (Last Call! sources, 7/14).

"And I asked her (for) her name and phone number and she started to say, 'Sarah,' and I was like, 'Oh, man, you are Sarah Palin, aren't you?'" -- an Anchorage man involved in a "four-car fender bender" with AK's gov (Anchorage Daily News, 7/10).

After her labor began at an RGA Governors Energy Forum in TX, Palin gave birth to her fifth child, Trig Paxson Van Palin, in AK on Friday (release, 4/21).

Palin "shocked and awed just about everybody" 3/5 when she announced she was seven months pregnant with Trig, given her "barely perceptible bulge." Palin also said she wouldn't take time off when the baby arrived, noting when she had daughter Piper, "the baby was born on a Monday and she returned to the office on Tuesday" (Anchorage Daily News, 3/6).

Barack Obama's campaign responds to the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's veep with a reminder that a new face on the ticket won't change the GOPer's record or policy agenda.

Hillary Clinton issued this statement a few moments ago about John McCain's running mate:

“We should all be proud of Governor Sarah Palin's historic nomination, and I congratulate her and Senator McCain. While their policies would take America in the wrong direction, Governor Palin will add an important new voice to the debate.”

Voters' lives in this tiny, picturesque town, located in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough of AK, are about to change. Make sure you're up to speed on all things Wasilla by checking out its website.

If you thought Hillary Clinton's time in the WH'08 spotlight was over, you were wrong. John McCain's decision to select AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) as his running mate puts new pressure on Clinton to support Barack Obama, in a broad and high-profile way, and urge her supporters to back him.

Clinton had, of course, already committed to campaign vigorously for Obama this fall, and she delivered an impassioned plea on his behalf Tuesday in Denver. But McCain's selection poses a new, and largely unseen, threat to Obama among the large number of women who consider it a priority to help other women advance in politics.

Will HRC rise to the challenge? Stay tuned.

[JOHN MERCURIO]

DAYTON, OH – At the biggest rally of his campaign, held on his 72nd birthday, John McCain introduced Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, emphasizing her record of reform. McCain said he had a large group of qualified people to choose from, but he "could only choose one."

"And it's with great pride and gratitude that I tell you I have found the right partner to help me stand up to those who value their privileges over their responsibilities, who put power over principle, and put their interests before your needs," McCain said. "I found someone with an outstanding reputation for standing up to special interests and entrenched bureaucracies; someone who has fought against corruption and the failed policies of the past; someone who's stopped government from wasting taxpayers' money."

McCain then walked the crowd through his relatively unknown running mate's biography, stressing her middle class upbringing, former union membership, husband's union membership and political record. But McCain managed to do this without giving away her gender.

"And I am especially proud to say in the week we celebrate the anniversary of women's suffrage, a devoted wife and a mother of five," McCain concluded. "She's not from these parts and she's not from Washington, but when you get to know her, you're going to be as impressed as I am. She's got the grit, integrity, and good sense and fierce devotion to the common good that is exactly what we need in Washington today."

Palin then took the stage along with four of her five children and her husband Todd, a commercial fisherman, member of the United Steelworkers Union and a production manager in the Alaskan oil fields. She explained the absence of her oldest son Track (he enlisted in the Army last year and "on September 11th, Track will deploy to Iraq in the service of his country") and explained how she got to where she is today.

"I never really set out to be involved in public affairs, much less to run for this office," she said.

DENVER -- In selecting Sarah Palin as his running mate, John McCain makes plain that he'll attempt to pluck disgruntled Hillary Clinton supporters -- and, more broadly, swing voting women -- from the clutches of the Democratic Party.

But Palin's appeal to this block is questionable. She's strongly pro life and pro gun, backs the teaching of creationism in public schools to boot, and she hasn't a lick of foreign policy experience.

So what's a 'security mom' to do?

A Pew Center for the People and the Press survey released last month shows Barack Obama leading McCain overall among women, 51% to 37%, but drill down into the numbers and some points of weakness for Obama shine through.

Among white women, they're tied 43% to 43%, and among married women Obama has just a modest four percentage point advantage.

So the numbers show some vulnerability for the Dem nom. But Palin's draw for these women, who don't forget sent Bush back to the White House in 2004 over Kerry in large measure because they believed he could better manage the nation's security matters, is uncertain.

Palin, a mother of five, is strongly pro life, a position that's sure to please the GOP base, but won't be a draw for former Clinton supporters. She's an avid sportswoman and lifelong member of the NRA. Indy suburban moms, concerned for the safety of their children, won't necessarily cross over to the GOP on that issue. And she has said that she's open to teaching creationism in public schools.

These views are slam dunks for conservatives who have been reluctant to back the more moderate McCain, but for moms concerned about rising gas prices, health care and college costs, they provide little solace.

Palin is, of course, only the second woman to run on a major party ticket. So for that alone, she'll garner a great deal of attention. She could also force Obama's campaign to rethink the nature of their attacks moving forward, and she could prompt rival VPer, Joe Biden, to temper his sometimes-combative style when they debate.

But Palin poses a challenge to McCain's team, in that she detracts from the GOPer's core attack against his Dem rival, that Obama doesn't have the foreign policy experience necessary to run the country. So is McCain stepping on his own message by nominating a political novice as his veep?

Note that Pew's poll showed Obama has maintained a solid lead among Indy women, who favor Obama over McCain by 47%-to-36%. Four years ago, John Kerry and President Bush were tied among independent women, 45% each, and, eight years ago, Bush led over Al Gore among this group, 52% to 39%.

Palin's appeal to this group could help McCain, or she could remind female voters, much as Clinton did at the Democratic convention this week, that their policy values are more in line with the all-male Democratic duo.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Barack Obama and Joe Biden issued a joint statement a few moments ago welcoming Sarah Palin to the WH contest:

“We send our congratulations to Governor Sarah Palin and her family on her designation as the republican nominee for Vice President. It is yet another encouraging sign that old barriers are falling in our politics. While we obviously have differences over how best to lead this country forward Governor Palin is an admirable person and will add a compelling new voice to this campaign."

From Team McCain, available after the jump.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and a roundtable with presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, NBC's David Gregory, NBC's Andrea Mitchell, GOP strategist Mike Murphy and NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.

Face the Nation hosts Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), McCain Victory chair Carly Fiorina and New York Times' David Brooks.

This Week hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) and a roundtable with George Will, Cokie Roberts, Sam Donaldson and Matt Dowd.

Fox News Sunday hosts John McCain. The "Power Player" is GOP convo dir. of operations Mike Miller.

Late Edition hosts FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R), Fred Thompson, House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH), Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA); McCain adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer, ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD), FEMA dir. David Paulison, CNN's Howard Kurtz, Washington Post's Dana Milbank, Politico's Roger Simon, Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet, HuffingtonPost.com's Rachel Sklar and Townhall.com's Amanda Carpenter.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Barack Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton on John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate:

"Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain's commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush's failed economic policies -- that's not the change we need, it's just more of the same."

Gov. Mitt Romney issued a brief statement praising Gov. Sarah Palin:

“Governor Palin's story is one that all Americans will find inspiring. She's a Washington outsider with a commitment to the conservative principles that will make our nation stronger. I look forward to campaigning for Senator McCain, Governor Palin and Republicans all across the country.”

We may be in Denver, but Hollywood wasn't very far away this week, with the likes of Ben Affleck, Charlize Theron and Ann Hathaway in town for the convo. And because we're not beneath eavesdropping and/or stalking, we've compiled a list of the Hotline's celebrity sightings for the week:

- Larry David's ex-wife/global warming activist Laurie David was spotted riding the escalator at Denver Int'l Airport on 8/23, wearing a print dress.

- We managed to intercept R&B artist John Legend during a sound check at the Pepsi Center on 8/25, practicing his new song, "If You're Out There," for the convo's opening night.

- Actress Aisha Tyler kept the Hotline company at the VIP table at Planned Parenthood's "Sex, Politics and Cocktails Late Night Dance Party" on 8/25.

- Actress Rosario Dawson made an appearance at National Journal's VIP lounge on 8/25, wearing a black shirt dress and promoting the Voto Latino organization.

- The next day, Dawson was spotted going through the metal detectors at the Pepsi Center entrance, wearing patent leather tan heels that were approximately 4.5 inches tall.

- Among the guests at the 8/26 "Huffington Post" new media luncheon were hair stylist extraordinaire Paul Mitchell and his wife, who, indeed, had perfectly coiffed hair.

- Also seen at the "Huffington Post" forum were "SNL" alum Fred Armisen and "Black-Eyed Peas" member will.i.am, who was decked out in a tweed jacket, black pants, a scarf and a hat -- despite the 92 degree weather.

Former WH hopeful Mike Huckabee issued this statement today about John McCain's pick for VP:

“Sarah Palin is pleasant surprise for those of us who had hoped that Senator McCain would pick a principled and authentic conservative pro-life leader and Sarah Palin is. As a Governor, she also brings an important balance of understanding of the critical domestic issues that are needed and that the Democrats have ignored in their ticket. Governor Palin is smart, authentic, tough, and a dynamic choice that will remind women that if they are not welcome on the Democrat’s ticket, they have a place with Republicans.”

The Hotline's Sean Miller has this primer on John McCain's veep choice, AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R). Enjoy.

Asked about her chances of being McCain’s VP pick two weeks ago, Palin said: "I just think that's so far out of the realm of possibility. I think, OK, I'm a hockey mom from Alaska and I'm very passionate about the need for our nation to become energy independent, and for our nation to become more secure, and that's going to be based on domestic supplies of energy being tapped" (Toeplitz, Roll Call, 8/15). As it turns, she was just being modest. Here are three things to know about Palin.

-- Palin is currently under investigation for firing AK ex-Public Safety Commis. Walt Monegan, who told the Anchorage Daily News that he felt pressured by the governor's office to fire Palin's ex-brother-in-law, Mike Wooten, “a trooper who had been locked in a child-custody battle with Palin’s sister.” Palin denies she pressured Monegan to fire Wooten. However, Palin senior aide, Frank Bailey, was recently placed on paid administrative leave after it was learned he’d made several calls to Wooten’s boss, trooper Lt. Rodney Dial.

Palin played a recorded copy of one of the calls to the press on 8/13. In it, Bailey "clearly pressures the lieutenant." Bailey "told him during the conversation that Palin and her husband want to know why Wooten still has a job." Bailey: "Todd and Sarah are scratching their heads, 'Why on earth hasn't this, why is this guy still representing the department?' He's a horrible recruiting tool, you know" (Cockerham, Anchorage Daily News, 8/14).

- During Palin’s first term in office, she has made headlines for tacking AK’s high energy costs – experience she could address on the trail. On 8/25, Palin signed a bill that will pay each qualified AKer a $1.2K “resource rebate,” set to come from the state's multibillion-dollar oil revenue surplus. The same bill includes $60M for the states “home weatherization program,” which gives residents a tax credit for money spent improving their homes’ energy efficiency. She also supports expanded oil drilling in AK.

-- She has a large family. During a RGA Governors Energy Forum in TX 4/17, Palin went into labor. She gave birth to her fifth child, Trig Paxson Van Palin 4/18. Shortly thereafter, Trig was diagnosed with Down's syndrome. Despite that difficult news, Palin said at the time “"he's absolutely perfect." The Palins’ brood includes four other children -- son Track, 18, and daughters Bristol, 17, Willow, 13 and Piper, 7.

Club for Growth PAC statement on possible Sarah Palin pick (nice alliteration, no?) issued this a.m. ...

Washington – With all the talk about Sarah Palin being picked for vice-president, the Club for Growth PAC described the Alaska Governor as a genuine reformer who has taken on wasteful spending in her own state.

“At a time when many Republicans are still clinging to pork-barrel politics, Governor Palin has quickly become a leader on this issue,” said Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “She is a principled reformer who understands how badly wasteful spending has marred the Republican brand.”

Governor Palin has proven herself to be a reformer unafraid to take on the establishment, which she did early on when she took on the incumbent Republican governor of Alaska in 2006. Only nine months in office, Governor Palin instructed the state to abandon the notorious pork project secured by Alaska’s politicians, the $223 million “Bridge to Nowhere.” While many Republicans in Congress are afraid to antagonize Washington’s biggest porkers, Sarah Palin stood strong for fiscal responsibility. Palin is also a persistent advocate of drilling in ANWR and expanding America’s domestic oil supply in general.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty tells a MN radio station that he won't be in OH today and that it's a "fair assumption" he didn't get the nod.

Gov. Sarah Palin is in Alaska this a.m., reports ABC News, so speculation is narrowing to a short list: former Govs. Mitt Romney and Tom Ridge, and Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn, the only presumed contender who is actually in the Buckeye State at this hour ... John McCain is expected to make a formal announcement today in Dayton.

Buzz this a.m. is that AK Gov. Sarah Palin, who is a mother of five and has served just two years in the state's top job, is John McCain's veep pick.

Campaign officials are mum, but a GOP sources tells the Chicago Tribune that it's Palin.

Palin, 42, is anti abortion, pro gun and very popular ...

Here's some reaction to Barack Obama's acceptance speech at Denver's Invesco Field:

PBS' Woodruff: "There were three things ... that Barack Obama accomplished tonight. Number one, to the criticism that he has not put meat on the bones of his economic message, he boiled it down, among other things, to 95 percent tax cuts for the middle class. That's something everybody can identify with. He gave more information about who he is. There's been criticism that people don't really know him, they don't feel comfortable with him. ... And, finally, to the criticism some have made that he is not tough enough, we haven't heard him coming back to the tough [John] McCain Republican message, we heard that tonight over and over again, change. He said it's time for change, and he said, 'Enough now, enough in this election'" ("NewsHour," 8/28).

CNN's J. King: "This was a speech crafted to rebut every argument the Republicans have used against the Democrats in past presidential elections and every argument they are preparing or already using against him. He went through God and values, he went through gun control, he went through gay rights. ... He essentially said to John McCain what George W. Bush is famous for saying, bring it on. You want to have a debate about judgment and my ability to be commander-in-chief, I will do it. Now, that's risky, but you can either hide from your weaknesses or take them on and tonight he took them dead on" ("Election Center," 8/28).

NPR's Williams: "I don't think there is going to be one line that we remember, nothing like, you know, a new frontier. ... I think what we will remember is that this was political theater like we've never seen. I mean, gosh, I've been covering politics 30-more years, and I have never seen a politician able to attract 85,000 people, the fireworks. ... The speech itself ... he didn't create an emotion-packed speech. He didn't really play on the anniversary of the 'I Have a Dream' speech. He didn't really pluck the heartstrings of all these Democrats that packed this stadium for this moment of history" ("On the Record," FNC, 8/28).

Air America's Maddow: "One of the lingering worries among Obama supporters and Democrats at large, about Obama is that maybe he doesn't have the stomach for hitting his opponent hard, maybe he doesn't think of American politics in a way that will draw the necessary contrast between Democrats and Republicans. I think with that one shouted word tonight ... 'enough,' he put the worries -- the 'O-Bambi' worries -- to rest" (MSNBC, 8/28).

More after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Barack Obama gave an effective speech this evening that could answer critics on several counts:

-- For those who say Obama has not shown a toughness or willingness to take it to John McCain, Obama not only labeled the senator as out of touch with the lives of regular Americans, he challenged the GOPer to abandon a politics that involves the smearing of a rival's character and questioning of his patriotism. (A politics that McCain has employed with some success in recent weeks, as he has charged that Obama is just a celebrity, nothing more.)

-- For those who say Obama has not effectively linked McCain with George W. Bush, he did so tonight, mentioning the president seven times and Vice President Dick Cheney once. And then there was this damning Katrina reference: "We are more compassionate than a government that lets veterans sleep on our streets and families slide into poverty, that sits on its hands while a major American city drowns before our eyes."

And this: "John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. ... I don't know about you, but I'm not ready to take a 10 percent chance on change."

-- For those who say Obama isn't a patriot, he issued praise for his McCain's sacrifice for country, but a call to his rival to stop politicizing service."I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain," Obama said. "The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and nbled together and some died together under the same proud flag.

"They have not served a Red America or a Blue America," Obama said, harkening back to the 2004 convention speech that launched his national career, "they have served the United States of America. So I've got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first."

McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds said Obama's record is thin, his readiness to lead still a question.

"Tonight, Americans witnessed a misleading speech that was so fundamentally at odds with the meager record of Barack Obama," Bounds said in a statement. "When the temple comes down, the fireworks end, and the words are over, the facts remain: Senator Obama still has no record of bipartisanship, still opposes offshore drilling, still voted to raise taxes on those making just $42,000 per year, and still voted against funds for American troops in harm's way. The fact remains: Barack Obama is still not ready to be President."

With the party's unity a subject of much debate during this week in Denver, Hillary Clinton issued a prompt statement lauding the specificity of Obama's policy agenda and echoing his call for new leadership in Washington:

"Barack Obama’s speech tonight laid out his specific, bold solutions and optimistic vision for our nation and our children's future. His speech crystallized the clear choice between he and Senator McCain. Four more years of the same failed policies or a leader who can tackle the great challenges we face: revitalizing our economy and restoring our standing in the world. I am proud to support Senator Obama, our next President of the United States and Joe Biden, our next Vice President of the United States."

Democrats crowding the floor of a confetti-littered Invesco Field offered mostly glowing praise for the senator's speech, while others were realistic about the challenge the party faces against a formidable and respected GOP nominee.

"We're just floored -- there was never a time, never a moment that felt so important and made us want to give a little more, go a little further," said Jon Kaiman, formerly a Clinton delegate from New York now supporting the nominee. "He gave us the confidence to do that. I'm proud to be a Democrat, and I'm proud to be an American."

As Republicans gear up for the announcement of McCain's running mate tomorrow and the launch of the GOP's convention Monday in St. Paul, Minn., others said they know Democrats can't bask in the glow of this historic day.

"We're just ready to go back and get busy," said Ian Davis, a delegate from Austin, Tx.

LaVerne Richards, a Houston delegate who said she still remains concerned about party unity, put it more succinctly. "Work, baby," she said. "We have lots of work to do."

(JENNIFER SKALKA and LAURA MARRAST)

Remarks available in full after the jump ...

Just a graph in, by the way, he salutes Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Stillness at Invesco. On the field, in the stands, in the press risers, as almost 100K people watch Barack Obama's video ...

"One person's struggle is all of our struggles," Obama says in his mini biopic.

When it wraps, he enters the stadium to U2"s City of Blinding Lights.

IL Sen. Dick Durbin introduces his friend Barack Obama, saying that "after this convention ends and the lights of this great stadium go dark will come the morning light and the dawning of a new day."

The sun has set. The crowd is chanting "Yes We Can" ... Cue the personal video.

National Journal's Rich Cohen sends this word from the delegate floor:

Convention aides are wheeling in boxes of confetti that appear set to be shot out of mini-cannons that function with compressed nitrogen. There are eight of them scattered around Invesco.

They're doing the wave at Invesco ... Three times around, while nets break for a commercial.

After releasing a series of harsh negative ads using footage of Hillary Clinton to criticize the Democratic nominee, John McCain's camp releases a spot congratulating Barack Obama for making history tonight. Whiplash.

Links to AP ...

DENVER -- Under a cloudless sky and warm Colorado sun, swarms of people are descending on the cavernous Invesco Field for Barack Obama's historic convention address. Many have waited for hours in lines that snake out the stadium and through the parking lot to witness the Democratic nominee make his case on the anniversary of Martin Luther King's 'I Have A Dream" speech.

"We must march like we've never marched before to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States," said Rep. John Lewis, who participated in the March on Washington.

The football field has been converted into a mock convention floor, with the state delegations seated -- placed just as they were in the Pepsi Center -- around a large royal blue dais that extends into the crowd. The podium background is a columned semi-circle lined with American flags.

The screen above the scoreboard touts Obama's Web site. His circular 'O' logos blaze a bright digital red, white and blue next to advertisements for Bud Light, Comcast and United.

Right now, Aretha Franklin's "Think" fills the stadium. Tonight's line-up has already included Olympic gymnast Shawn Johnson, who recited the Pledge of Allegiance, and Jennifer Hudson, the Academy award-winning actress, who sand the National Anthem.

Speakers on the schedule include VA Gov. Tim Kaine, NM Gov. Bill Richardson, former Vice President Al Gore, Susan Eisenhower and IL Sen. Richard Durbin.

With three hours to go until Obama speaks, Invesco is about half full.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Steve Kroft of 60 Minutes scored the first joint interview with the Democratic nominees for president and vice president.

Excerpts of the Remarks of Senator Barack Obama
“The American Promise”
Democratic National Convention
August 28, 2008
Denver, Colorado

As prepared for delivery

“Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

“It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

“It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.

“We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

“Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach.

“These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

“America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.”

A Minn. GOP source says Gov. Tim Pawlenty is cancelling all of his weekend media appearances, reports NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger ...

DENVER, CO – Where in the world is Gov. Tim Pawlenty?

With the MN governor in Denver today to continue his role as an offensive lineman for the Republican Party, reporters are bent on determing where he'll be tomorrow morning.

Pawlenty, a much talked-about vice presidential prospect, said that he is "scheduled to be and plans to be" doing a weekly scheduled radio show from the Minnesota State Fair tomorrow morning at 9 a.m. He told reporters that he will be leaving Denver this afternoon, bound for his home state.

The interest in Pawlenty's whereabouts comes with the news that John McCain will debut his vice presidential pick tomorrow in Dayton, OH.

The MN governor would not answer any questions about the vice presidential process, including a volley of queries about how recently he has spoken with his party's presidential nominee. "I refrain from answering any questions relating to the VP selection process," he said. "We're going to allow Senator McCain to make that announcement."

Pawlenty's tea leaves offered little news to reporters hungry for the veep scoop, but don't miss this answer from another GOP surrogate present at the morning GOP press conference. When Sen. Jon Kyl, McCain's Arizona colleague, was asked if the Republican Party would be deeply divided if McCain was to pick a pro-choice vice presidential nominee, he responded that his Arizona colleague is a "strong conservative."

"But" he added, "he has also willing to take on orthodoxies and to be a maverick at times. Certainly not to be President Bush on certain key issues. And I think the American people respect that."

"If the American people believe and the Republican Party believes that John McCain has good reasons, sound reasons, for making the judgments that he makes," Kyl continued, "then I think that they will be very very supportive of him regardless of who he selects."

(NBC/NJ's CARRIE DANN)

While speeches, briefings and parties abound in Denver, polls proliferate nationwide. This week saw the most extensive update of The Hotline's Electoral College chart since its inception on 6/26. With 26 new state polls out in 12 different states, Barack Obama now leads John McCain 330 EVs to 208 EVs -- a 5 EV increase from his 325-208 EV lead one week ago.

Obama's 5 EV bump came from NM, which moved from the now-defunct toss-up column to solid Obama with its first surveys this cycle.

Of the 26 new polls released this week, 22 were battleground state surveys -- including 5 in both CO and FL. The majority of this week's data came from three non-partisan outfits. Mason-Dixon opened the week with a series of six western state surveys, sampling AZ, CO, NV, NM, UT and WY; they followed with an FL poll on 8/27. Quinnipiac Univ. meanwhile released a CO poll upon the start of the Dem convo, as well as its traditional FL, OH and PA swing state surveys on 8/26. And last p.m., CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. released new polls for CO, NV, NM and PA; additional surveys this week hailed from MI, NH and RI.

Given the increase in state polling data, The Hotline has refined criteria for state classification. Beginning this week, the bar for "solid" vs. "lean" has been raised to the traditional level of significance against the margin of error; all EV totals included in this update and symbols in the charts below reflect this conversion. As such, McCain now has 154 solid EVs to Obama's 142 solid EVs; using the more stringent standards, McCain would have led 154-137 among solid EVs one week ago. Obama, however, leads McCain 137-27 among lean EVs and 51-27 among EVs projected by WH '00/WH '04 results -- all identical figures to last week under the new rules.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

For the 11 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

On the McCain veepstakes ...

Trippi: "I think picking Biden has probably dimished Romney's chances, they have 15 houses between them. Against Joe Biden from Scranton. It sets up very, very badly."

Toughest GOP veep match-up for Dems ...

Matthews: Tom Ridge

Trippi: Ridge or Joe Lieberman

Greenberg: Lieberman

Cherny: Kay Bailey Hutchison

Matthews: "Gustav beats Pawlenty."

Trippi: "It is possible the Dems could lose this thing. That is a real possibility." Dems need to pitch the contest as: "McCain's not on your side. Barack Obama is."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Matthews says Michelle Obama doesn't play to the camera. During Bill Clinton speech to DNC last night: "I thought that she didn't really perk up for him. I thought she was just too honest about it. She should've been like Mary Tyler Moore."

More: "She's such a civilian, she's a real person. We're used to acting school here."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Frank Biden, Joe Biden's brother is in the house for NJ's panel. He rises to the Q and A mic, unsolicited, to talk about what this election is about at its core:

"It is the big and the little, and I think with this election they're going to have the opportunity to talk about both. I know my brother respects the American people. He really truly does. ... And this is just Frank talking, and I'm going to get in big trouble. My brother's going to give me -- Frank, what are you doing? ..."

More from Frank Biden on the American people: "They have the solution. We just have to listen. It's us old guys who are getting in the way."

And this unpolitics related aside: "My mother loves Chris Matthews, and so do I."

Matthews offers this caution to brother Biden: "Here's a problem the Democrats have. You're running against a guy -- everybody saluted John McCain this week. And when you read about McCain, there's no way you can't be sentimental about what he did. ... You're starting out at a disadvantage. You've got to figure out how do you break that hold he has. John McCain has a hold on people."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Group is discussing how big Obama takes his message ... Kitchen table issues v. government reform v. American leadership at risk.

Greenberg believes the Dems' strategy must be: "American way of life at risk, American leadership at risk."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Joe Trippi hints at Dem concerns about the scope of Obama's Invesco Field speech:

"I'm a little bit worried about tonight's event. I'm worried that it's too big. It's hard to be intimate and connect with the TV audience in that atmosphere and bring it down to earth. It's the opposite of him interacting with his kids."

On Call Aside: Invesco is the whole show. The speech could highlight the depth and enthusiasm of the movement around Obama's campaign or it could fuel Republican efforts to craft Obama as celebrity and his fans as a cult of personality. There's much riding on tonight's event. Invesco was a gamble.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Matthews: "What got me last night was Joe Biden. My wife and I were crying on the phone last night."

More: "It's the first time on my life I felt one of us is in there. ... This election is going to turn on Scranton."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Brownstein: How's the week gone for Dems so far?

Trippi: "They delivered. Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton, I think, delivered more than they could have expected. ... I think Bill Clinton's speech last night was just amazing, one of the best speeches I've heard in a long time.

Cherny: "I think Bill Clinton's speech ... He really defined the choice and the selection."

Matthews: "I thought Hillary's speech was above everyone else's. ... There was something exuberant about it." "I never thought we'd have a black president, ever."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DENVER -- National Journal launches today's expert panel in a few minutes. Hosted by Atlantic Media political director Ron Brownstein, participants include Joe Trippi, Stan Greenberg, Andrei Cherny, Bill Daley and Chris Matthews ... Here we go.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DENVER - At ease speaking to the PA delegation, Joe Biden, a Scranton native, made light of Barack Obama's relative youth this morning as he joked about his own early start in politics.

Biden said that after he was picked as Barack Obama's running mate, he asked his staff to look up the speech he made when he announced his candidacy for the Senate in 1972. And reading it, he found great similarity between his message than and Obama's today.

"The truth of the matter, it's a natural fit," Biden said. "Barack Obama could have made that speech were he alive in 1972."

He laughed, and quickly clarified that Obama was, in fact, alive at the time.

"By the way, if I hear one more time he was 11 years old when I went to the Senate, I'm going to smack somebody," he continued.

Biden talked about growing up in Scranton, hearing his extended family talking about politics around the dinner table. He only left, he said, because he lived only blocks away from the Casey family, and, "I knew only one great person came out of Scranton, and it wasn't gonna be me."

Biden said the Keystone State would determine the election and promised that the full arsenal of the well-stocked Obama campaign would be put to work there.

"You're going to have all the resources this campaign has available to us. That's the good news," he said. "And the bad news is you're going to have a whole hell of a lot of me because I'm coming home."

In fact, the Obama-Biden campaign heads to Pennsylvania tomorrow to start a post-convention tour.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

The speeches made by Bill Clinton and Joe Biden dominated last night's TV coverage. We'll start with B. Clinton's reviews first (because there were much more of them):

Ex-IA Gov. Tom Vilsack (D): "Vintage Bill Clinton. No question about it. He made the case very succinctly for why Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States and why John McCain doesn't deserve an opportunity to continue four years of Bush policies" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/27).

House Maj. Whip James Clyburn (D-SC): "A great speech, outstanding. As I said earlier today, I expect for Bill to be Bill. And he was Bill tonight. I really believe that he teed it up well for Barack Obama" ("NewsHour," PBS, 8/27).

GOP strategist Mike Murphy: "I enjoyed the irony of it. I think first ... it was a strong speech, effective. He did what Hillary Clinton didn't do last night, which was [to] make a direct, personal endorsement of Barack Obama. But I had to feel the irony and I was chuckling at it. I tried to look at it through the lens of Hillary Clinton, sitting there in the audience, thinking, there's kind of the good Bill Clinton, and the bad Bill Clinton. For a year, Bill Clinton had screwed up his wife's campaign. Now the good Bill Clinton shows up to hit a strong triple for Barack Obama. The irony in that is tremendous, I think" (MSNBC, 8/27).

CNN's Blitzer: "I think, by all accounts, the Democrats could not be happier right now. The Barack Obama supporters heard exactly what they wanted to hear from the former president of the United States" ("Election Center," 8/27).

After the jump, Biden reviews and Michelle Obama continues the TV rounds.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Joe Biden gave it his all tonight, but his all couldn't elevate a middling speech, which attempted too much, and in the process fell flat.

Attack dog, populist, legislative heavyweight, world player, family man. Two mentions of Scranton and Wilmington. A tribute to his mother. Afghanistan, al-Qaida and the Taliban, Iran. Abe Lincoln and John Kennedy. The pieces weren't eloquently woven together, and the weight of the veep nom's career, the depth of his knowledge and breath of his influence, was diminished.

Until November, Barack Obama needs Biden to ably perform two tasks - slamming John McCain and heralding Obama's commander-in-chief credentials. His job for the next two months is to help Obama make the sale. And he needed to show tonight he can do that -- and do it better than Hillary Clinton.

Certainly, the Clinton saga appeared closed tonight, for now. Hillary Clinton put Obama's name in nomination, a generous gesture, the symbolism of which was not lost on the hall of Dems, who roared their approval. And Bill Clinton evening covered ground this evening that his wife avoided, to some criticism, in her address to the convention last night.

In 1992, the former president recalled: "Together, we prevailed in a campaign in which the Republicans said I was too young and too inexperienced to be commander-in-chief. Sound familiar? It didn't work in 1992 because we were on the right side of history. And it won't work in 2008 because Barack Obama is on the right side of history."

Biden needed to strike a similar theme, and certainly aspects of his speech covered similar ground. But a one-time kitchen sink speech is one thing. A kitchen sink campaign strategy is another. Biden needs focus moving forward. A veep nom can't cover every base. He should be on the attack and doing the kind of outreach that will help electorally, attracting working class voters to the Democrats cause and easing public concerns about a neophyte nom.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

It's been a busy day for "Backstage Pass." This a.m., we visited NBC (see earlier post) and took a quick break before stopping by ABC and MSNBC.

8/27, 4:30 pm MT: Live taping of ABC's "World News"

History was made during our visit to the ABC set. With the floor of the Dem convo as a backdrop, ABC's Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos reported live as Barack Obama became the first African-American nominee of a major U.S. party when Hillary Clinton moved for acclamation during a roll call vote.

In addition to the crew, the tight quarters were occupied by ABC News pres. David Westin, Gibson's wife and ABC chief investigative corr. Brian Ross. Ross, whose segment was cut due to time restrictions, told the Hotline his prod. was the one arrested outside the Brown Palace Hotel today.

More after the jump, including pictures.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

En route to hall ... will join Joe Biden on stage at the end of the veep nom's speech.

Dean John Hutson of the Franklin Pierce Law Center in Concord, N.H. just took to a new level the whole past/future line hammered last night by former VA Gov. Mark Warner:

"The Grand Old Party is no longer grand. It's just old."

So now the age issue is full out on the table? Raised directly at the convention ...

(JS)

In a feisty speech defending the patriotism of his party's Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Dem nom, told the Pepsi Center audience a few moments ago that those who believe in the "myth of a maverick instead of the reality of a politician" should compare Sen. John McCain to candidate McCain.

Wartime taxes that McCain once viewed as "immoral." "Candidate McCain criticizes Senator McCain's own climate change bill. Candidate McCain says he would now vote against the immigration bill that Sentor McCain wrote. Are you kidding? Talk about being for it before you're against it."

And this: "Before he debates Barack Obama, John McCain should finish the debate with himself."

(JS)

Did Bill Clinton just exit the stage to Robert Palmer's 'Addicted to Love' ... ?

Ay yi yi ... That was a music program errorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

(JS)

What Hillary didn't say last night that Bill managed this evening:

"Everything I learned in my eight years as President and in the work I've done since, in America and across the globe, has convinced me that Barack Obama is the man for this job."

And this:

"Barack Obama is ready to lead America and restore American leadership in the world. Barack Obama is ready to honor the oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States. Barack Obama is ready to be President of the United States."

That's three "readys." For those waiting for the Clintons to utter the word, there you go.

(JS)

President Clinton enters to Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow ...

Deafening cheers. Flags waving ... "Bill, Bill, Bill, Bill."

"I love this," he says, "but we have important work to do tonight.

"I am here first to suppport Barack Obama and second, I'm here to warm up the crowd for Joe Biden. But as you will soon see, he doesn't need any help from me. I love Joe Biden."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DENVER -- DNC attendees were treated to a strange sight this afternoon -- Texas oilman (and major GOP donor) T. Boone Pickens sharing a stage with Sierra Club executive director Carl Pope and Center for American Progress president John Podesta.

The event was staged earlier today at The Big Tent, the eco-friendly makeshift structure located near the Pepsi Center that serves as a gathering place for bloggers and new media journalists. Pickens' appearances here are part of his effort to build support for his ambitious "Pickens Plan," which seeks to reduce America's dependence on foreign oil through investments in wind power, solar power and natural gas.

Speaking in his folksy Texas drawl, Pickens emphasized that he was not pushing his plan in order to enrich himself.

"I'm not doing this to make money," Pickens said. "Whatever I make from this will go to my estate, and all of my estate will go to charity when I go."

Pickens emphasized the non-partisan nature of his effort, noting that he has met with John McCain and Barack Obama.

"I'm totally non-partisan on this," he declared, drawing applause from the audience. "It has nothing to do with politics. It has to do with America."

The Democratic National Committee is launchng an ad campaign in Minneapolis next week, to coincide with the GOP convention, that features a chummy photo of John McCain embracing President Bush. The shot -- with the caption, "More politics as usual. Does this look like change to you?" -- will be featured on bus shelter ads and billboards.

New Mexico yields to the Land of Lincoln. Illinois yields to New York.

And the crowd erupts and rises to its feet as Hillary Clinton prepares to put Barack Obama over the edge.

Clinton: "On behalf of the great state of New York with appreciation for the spirit and dedication of all who have gathered here ... goal of victory ... with faith in our party ... Let's declare together in one voice, right here, right now that Barack Obama is our candidate, and he will be our president. Madame Secretary, I move that the convention suspend the procedural rules and suspend the further conduct of the roll call vote. And that all votes cast by the delegates will be counted, and I move Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois be accepted by acclimation as the nominee of the Democratic Party of the United States."

Flashbulbs twinkled across the hall as Clinton spoke. And this tune pumped through the room ... "People of the world, join hands and start a love train... "

They're standing in the Pepsi Center. Swaying, dancing, clapping.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Obama/Clinton

Georgia 82/18
Guam 4/3
Hawaii 26/1
Idaho 20/3
Illinois passed
Indiana 75/6
Iowa 48/9
Kansas 34/6
Kentucky 36/24
Lousiana 43/7
Maine 24/8
Maryland 94/6
Massachusetts 65/52
Michigan 125/27
Minnesota 78/8
Mississippi 33/8
Montana 18/7
Nebraska 28/3
Nevada 25/8
New Hampshire 30/0
New Jersey 127/0

IN THE SKY OVER COLORADO -- Barack Obama's chief strategist David Axelrod said the candidate's speech tomorrow will be tweaked until he delivers it to a crowd of more than 70K at Invesco Field.

"The speech is substantially written but as with all Obama speeches he'll be refining it and buffing it up and working on it I'm sure right until the very end," Axelrod said during a briefing near the end of the flight today from Montana to Denver.

While he spoke for several minutes about tomorrow, Axelrod was cagey when asked how Obama would accept the nomination and whether he would come to the convention hall tonight to greet the delegates, saying only "there's nothing on the schedule that suggests that."

Obama began thinking about Thursday's speech during his vacation in Hawaii and had been the chief writer, writing a first draft and then working with others, including speechwriter Jon Favreau.

"He's the best speechwriter in the group, and he knows what he wants to say and he feels strongly about that," said Axelrod, who explained that the senator usually writes a draft in long-hand and then types it into his computer.

Relatively steady in the Pepsi Center as Dem delegates cast their votes. They're able to choose between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Speaker Nancy Pelosi is at the dais, confirmng the tally.

So far:

Obama/Clinton

48/5 Alabama
15/3 Alaska
9/0 America Samoa
40/27 Arizona
47/0 Arkansas
CA passed
55/0 Colorado
38/21 Connecticut
23/0 Delaware
8.5/2.5 Dems Abroad
33/7 DC
166/51 Florida ( 1 abstention)

Not terribly rowdy or divisive ... No real booing.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and DSCC chair Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hosted a sextet of Dem SEN candidates today in a presser at the Denver convention center: Ex-Govs. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Mark Warner (D-VA), Reps. Tom Allen (D-ME), Mark Udall (D-CO), and Tom Udall (D-NM), and state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

8/27, 11:45 am MT: NBC's HQ for the Dem convo

NBC's home base for the week is situated behind the Pepsi Center, allowing easy access to the five booths it has set up overlooking the stage. The tents are carpeted with astro turf (a big step up from Hotline's plywood floors).

The space is pretty glam-free, even for NBC's top talent. The humble offices of Tom Brokaw, Matt Lauer and Brian Williams are tucked in the back right corner. Lauer and Brokaw are sharing space, and part of Williams' makeshift floor was accidentally built at a 45-degree slant, making it a little difficult to have a rolly chair. Side note: We found out Williams had recently met with comedian/"Tonight Show" convo corr. Mo Rocca, presumably to showcase his well-known sense of humor (remember "SNL?").

More after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

DENVER, CO – During a crowded and rowdy rally of her elected convention delegates this afternoon, Sen. Hillary Clinton released her delegates to cast their ballots as they choose, adding that she signed a ballot for Barack Obama this morning.

But she also advised her supporters: "I am not telling you what to do."

Calling the upcoming roll call vote on the convention floor this afternoon "traditional," she encouraged her delegates to "do what you feel in your heart is right."

Attendees cried "No! No!" and offered up a mix of cheers and moans when she announced that her vote had been cast for her former rival.

Clinton said that efforts to reconcile the once-bitterly divided factions of the Democratic Party "are off to a good start" in Denver and that she expected Democrats to leave the convention united despite having arrived "by different paths."

But, she added, "You are to be given the respect and recognition you have earned as delegates for the Democratic Party."

The thank-you gathering took place in a convention center ballroom, where thousands of loud supporters stood shoulder to shoulder. Much of the senator's address was drowned out by shouts of support from the emotional crowd.

(NBC/NJ's CARRIE DANN)

DENVER -- Hillary Clinton’s well-received speech last night urging her supporters to back Barack Obama eased Democrats’ worries that the schism between the camps could hurt the party come November, but another critical test will come this afternoon, when delegates cast their votes in the convention roll call.

Many Obama supporters are fearful that PUMAs – a group of Clinton die-hards -- will derail his formal nomination (superdelegates, and technically even “pledged” delegates, can still change their preference to Clinton). Even if Clinton supporters do not usurp Obama, any publicized discord among the delegates could prove embarrassing for the party and fuel reports of friction.

But if an 8/25 meeting of feminists in downtown Denver was any indication of his support among Clinton backers, the Obama camp need not worry. Hosted by NOW and the Feminist Majority, the “Women’s EqualiTea” at the Univ. Club was a packed house of female politicians, activists, and supporters. There were few signs of Dem discord among the overwhelming-female audience; nearly all the paraphernalia worn at the event was in the spirit of “Unity,” “Women For Obama” and “Obama-Biden.”

The first speaker of the day, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), acknowledged that “some people are still hurting” from the long primary battle. Nonetheless, she said: “We must be united.” Boxer also addressed the perceived media bias against Clinton, pointing out that she had just come from the set of Hardball with Chris Matthews (triggering loud boos from the audience).

“We had about 200 people behind the set. A third of them were Hillary people who were yelling, a third of them were Barack people who were yelling, and a third of them were McCain people who were delighted in this yelling back and forth,” Boxer said.

“But the fact is," she added. "I don’t want to talk about the past.”

Will I Am will sing his hit Barack Obama-promoting tune, Yes We Can, tomorrow at Invesco Field with a local band, senior campaign sources tell National Journal.

New John McCain spot running in "key states" alleges that Barack Obama has minimized the threat posed by Iran.

Senior Barack Obama campaign sources tell National Journal that Stevie Wonder will perform tomorrow at Invesco Field.

Hillary Clinton's speech was the talk of the TV late last night:

Dick Morris: "The better Hillary does tonight, the more everybody in this convention is going to be thinking why didn't [Barack Obama] pick her?" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/26).

Dem strategist Hilary Rosen: "This was a message from Hillary Clinton that basically said, 'I am not your therapist. I am a Democrat'" ("Election Center," CNN, 8/26).

McCain Victory chair Carly Fiorina: "I can't believe that there weren't at least some people in that hall thinking, what if, you know, what if she was the vice-presidential candidate, what if she was the presidential candidate? It was a wonderful speech. I think she did what she had to do" ("On the Record," FNC, 8/26).

John McCain spokesperson Tucker Bounds: "At the McCain campaign, the one thing that we took away, and I'm sure that the pundits will pick apart every word of every speech that's delivered at the convention. But the one thing that we couldn't help but miss were the things that she didn't say. Her largest and most striking criticism of Barack Obama throughout her primary candidacy was his lack of experience and his failed judgment on foreign policy on key issues that affect working family. And she didn't do a whole lot to step away from that criticism. And I think what that does is embolden our argument as we more toward election day to make clear to voters that there's a choice between strong leadership in John McCain with a record of reforming Washington and there's Barack Obama" ("LKL," CNN, 8/26).

After the jump, how the convo is shaping up and Michelle Obama opens up.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

We break into coverage of the Dem convo for this special House bulletin. In what was to be the headliner of the FL primary matchups, Pittsburgh Steelers heir/atty Tom Rooney (R) appears to have snuck by two other GOPers to win the right to face vulnerable freshman Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-FL 16). With 100% of the precincts reporting, Rooney leads state Rep. Gayle Harrell (R) and Palm Beach Gardens Councilor Hal Valeche (R), 37-35-28%. He leads Harrell by just under 1K votes.

But what turned out to be the real story was the near-defeat of Orlando-based Rep. Ric Keller (R-FL 08), who squeaked by radio talk show host/atty Todd Long (R), 53-47%. Despite Keller's very large war chest, Keller and Long both spent about the same amount of cash in the primary (Keller: $450K, Long: $342K). And Keller was sufficiently worried about Long's challenge that he sent a mailer to voters that featured Long's mugshot and a copy of a police report from a drunk-driving arrest. The Orlando Sentinel also reported that the mailer included information that "didn't result in an arrest," but was sufficiently embarrassing. In '07, a police officer "found Long sleeping on the sidewalk" near a Tallahassee high school just after 5 a.m.

At the time, that attack seemed a bit much, but it may have provided the margin of victory for Keller in this low-turnout election. Keller will face atty/'06 candidate Alan Grayson (D) in the fall. Grayson, who invested $850K of his own cash into his primary bid, may give Keller a run for his money, if the primary tells us anything about Keller's vulnerability.

In FL-16, Rooney was the establishment favorite in the three-way race, and rode Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) and others endorsements to a victory. The conservative base split their support among all of the candidates, and none could claim to be the favorite of social conservatives, whose support is key in low-turnout affairs.

Valeche attacked Rooney and Harrell the hardest, saying both were insufficiently pro-life. But in the end, Rooney and Valeche were the main attractions, with Valeche relegated to the sidelines. Rooney will now take Mahoney, who appeared to be one of the weakest incumbents earlier in the cycle, but now has the upper hand in a race where Rooney will need to quickly refill his coffers if he wants to make this a contest.

(TIM SAHD)

And the intro vid available after the jump.

DENVER -- After a rousing speech, a plain plea to Democrats for unity, did Hillary Clinton say the magic words that could convince her supporters that Barack Obama is ready to be president?

Certainly, Clinton made clear that she is supporting him, that they share policy values and a commitment to Democratic ideals. She said her supporters haven't worked so hard over the last 18 months to "suffer through more failed leadership."

"No way, no how, no McCain," she bellowed, offering up a slam dunk applause line.

Obama, Clinton said, is her candidate, "and he must be our President."

But Clinton's endorsement of Obama's abilities -- his leadership skills, fitness, judgment and experience -- was lacking. She didn't say that those with lingering doubts about a politician who was a state senator just four years ago should rest assured.

And John McCain's camp took note, issuing a statement just moments after she wrapped her remarks: "Nowhere tonight did she say that Barack Obama is ready to lead. Millions of Hillary Clinton supporters and millions of Americans remain concerned about whether Barack Obama is ready to be President."

Clinton's speech was strong and gracious, a reaffirmation of the historic nature of her campaign, and her place in history. In many ways, however, it felt more like a reminder of what could have been had she been the nominee -- what one day might still be -- than a passion-filled endorsement of her onetime Dem rival.

Mentioning that today marks the 88th anniversary of the 19th amendment, which provided women with the right to vote, Clinton reminded convention-goers of another extraordinary woman of history, Harriet Tubman, who helped others to freedom. Clinton recalled Tubman's advice to slaves traveling the Underground Railroad -- that they should trudge on no matter what -- and she concluded, in an almost personal revelation:

"Even in the darkest of moments, ordinary Americans have found the faith to keep going."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

-- By the by, Mitt Romney was in the hall tonight doing interviews. And Carly Fiorina was outside the hall being driven around on a golf cart.

-- "The ungraciousness of the Republicans this week has been unbelievable" - James Carville, CNN

The signs you were waiting for:

Unity on one side, Obama on the other. Blue and white. Being handed to delegates on the floor of the DNC ...

Oh, and some of them say Hillary on one side and unity on the other. Interesting ...

HIllary Rodham Clinton's DNC speech begins :

"I am honored to be here tonight. A proud mother. A proud Democrat. A proud American. And a proud supporter of Barack Obama. My friends, it is time to take back the country we love. Whether you voted for me, or voted for Barack, the time is now to unite as a single party with a single purpose."

Full speech after the jump.

The Hillary Clinton vid, narrated by Chelsea ...

With that Lenny Kravitz song filling the background, it offers a toast to HRC's laugh, singing voice, SNL impersonation, motherhood, daughterhood and oh, those 18M cracks in the glass ceiling.

"The petrol dictators will never own American wind and sunshine ... "

-- a theatrical MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer, speaking at the Dem convo a few moments ago

DENVER -- Mitt Romney offered reporters his take on what Joe Biden brings to the Obama ticket, but refused to handicap his chances of becoming John McCain’s VP nominee.

“Joe Biden is thought of as someone who can sure up Barack Obama’s foot faults in the foreign policy arena,” he said during a lunch sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. “But as you stand back and look at Joe Biden, you see someone who has spent thirty years dealing with foreign policy but has usually been wrong.”

Romney detailed Biden’s foreign policy mistakes: He opposed Ronald Reagan’s arms build up in the ’80s and was against forcibly evicting Saddam Hussein’s forces from Kuwait in the first Gulf War, Romney said. “He opposed the surge, which has led to our success in Iraq. He was wrong on that. His record of being wrong on foreign policy is as long as his years in foreign policy.”

Turning to McCain’s pending VP pick – which he’s expected to unveil in Dayton, OH, on Friday – Romney would only say: “As a Republican, I hope it’s someone who improves our chances of winning in November.”

Who knew it would be Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) who delivered the first red-meat sound bite for hungry Dems?

"John McCain calls himself a maverick," Casey said in his convention address just now, linking McCain and Pres. Bush. " That's not a maverick. That's a sidekick."

With Sen. Ted Stevens (R) likely to win re-nomination this evening, attention will soon shift to his general election challenge from Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). And yet, many are wondering: is this a race Stevens can actually win?

For a brief 10 minutes this afternoon, Dem House candidates became the focal point of this week's convo. Saying a Pres. Barack Obama can't accomplish change by himself, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (MD-04) called from the convo podium for voters to elect a "robust" House majority. He then introduced 10 candidates, including Iraq vet/MN-03 nominee Ashwin Madia (MN-03) and IL state Sen. Maj. Leader/IL-11 nominee Debbie Halvorson (D).

But Miami-Dade Co. Dem Chair Joe Garcia (D) may have stolen the show, as he earned a wild and prolonged applause from the FL delegation. Garcia's running an underdog campaign against Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL 25), and beating Diaz-Balart will take a monumental effort. After all, Diaz-Balart won the seat in '02 after basically drawing it himself in that year's redistricting.

But Garcia has surprised with his fundraising prowess, as he's raised over $1M. He also believes the younger generation of Cubans, who make up a very large portion of this CD and have heretofore been solid GOPers, are not as married to the party. GOPers, however, argue that Garcia's too liberal for the CD, and has "South Beach Values."

But does Garcia's reception here today indicate growing grassroots support? Or just some love for a local boy made good?

(TIM SAHD)

In our third installment of "Backstage Pass," we headed over to "The Fox Experience," FNC's home base in Denver.

8/26, 11:30 am MT: A sit-down with Jon Scott, co-anchor of FNC's "Happening Now."

Born and bred in Denver, Scott returns to his hometown for his first convo since joining FNC 12 years ago, when the cable news net first launched. Utilizing his knowledge of the area, Scott has added to FNC's convo coverage by providing stories with local flavor. Today, Scott worked on a story about Hillary Clinton's speech later tonight coinciding with the 88th anniversary of women's suffrage, and how CO was the first state to grant women full voting rights. A fan of the climate and friendly people, Scott is pleased to see Denver getting worldwide recognition as the host city.

More after the jump, including pictures.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Tonight's DNC headliner is, of course, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Watch to see how forcefully she makes the case for Barack Obama and how well she discounts the new John McCain TV spots in which she stars. She will be introduced by daughter, Chelsea.

Other Day 2 speakers available after the jump.

MSNBC's Chris Matthews (D-PA?) had breakfast this a.m. with the PA Dem delegation, telling them he's undecided on a challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in '10. PolitickerPA has the story.

PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) joins the chorus of Dems warning Barack Obama to retool his message or risk losing his bey battleground state. The Fix's Cillizza has the story.

DENVER -- Two leading Democrats -- Rep. Rahm Emanuel and former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle -- said today that Hillary Clinton would play a key role in crafting health care policy if Barack Obama is elected.

"She has an expertise in health care," Emanuel, chair of the House Democratic Caucus, said during a lunch and panel discussion at the Ritz sponsored by National Journal. "And she knows both the opportunities and pitfalls, and you want that experience."

Daschle said Clinton would certainly have a seat at the table. "Absolutely, with exclamation point," he said. "There’s no question."

Atlantic Media political director Ron Brownstein moderated the conversation, which explored more broadly how Obama would govern. Obama's policy director, Heather Higginbottom, and Bruce Reed, president of the Democratic Leadership Council also participated.

Higginbottom said Obama's top three legislative priorities would be Iraq, health care and the nation's energy crisis. And Daschle, a senior adviser to the Obama campaign, echoed that agenda.

"If there is good news, it is the realization that those are the three pressing issues, regardless of who you ask," Daschle said.

Brownstein asked Emanuel what a President Obama would have to do during his first year in office to avoid a Republican Party resurrection in 2010 that might look similar to the GOP's sweep in 1994 following President Clinton's botched attempt at passing health care legislation. The Illinois congressmen said Obama would have to navigate health care reform through Congress -- "or a significant down payment on it" -- pass a middle class tax cut and pursue an energy policy that both parties could embrace.

Daschle added that Obama might have to disaggregate his comprehensive health care and energy proposals to pass them piece by piece.

Meanwhile, Emanuel said one of his priorities for the early days of an Obama term is to pass a Children's Health Insurance Plan.

From a stylistic perspective, Daschle suggested Obama would make good on his promise to elevate the political dialogue and conduct policy discussions from a post-partisan perspective. He said one of Obama's strengths is his ability to listen to all sides in a policy discussion. A favorite Obama phrase, Daschle noted, is that "the best way to persuade is with your ears."

A riff, of course, on the candidate's most prominent feature.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Just hours before Hillary Clinton address the Democratic National Convention in Denver, it appears her husband is attempting to undercut Barack Obama's effort to unify the party. The Hill has the story.

DENVER - Joe Biden surprised a crowd here as he joined Michelle Obama and several female governors for a roundtable discussion of women's issues. Amid continued chatter that former Hillary Clinton supporters are not fully on board with the Democratic ticket, the Delaware senator made a direct pitch to a mostly female audience.

"You know, I know my role," Biden joked as he looked around the stage full of women. "I have been surrounded my whole life by very strong, strong women. ... I mean this sincerely: I think you can tell the comfort a man has with women and whether or not he gets it or not by the women, if the women around him are strong."

Relating to some of the stories of the women invited to join the discussion, Biden noted that for a time he was a single parent. And later, after panelists recounted personal battles that involved health care, education and the economy, Biden challenged Republicans to show how they could call themselves a party of values.

"What is the greater obligation of the country -- to give some very, very wealthy people who are good people an additional hundred billion dollars in tax cuts, or provide healthcare for every American, solve every story you've heard up here?" he asked. "I really think you've got to let this sink in, Democrats. This is not something that's beyond our reach. It's all about what your priorities are."

Michelle Obama introduced Biden, calling him a "man who knows firsthand how hard it can be to balance work and family." She also said he led Congress in the fight against domestic violence and has always been "fighting for us."

"As president and vice president, Barack and Joe will change Washington, so that instead of just talking about family values that we actually have policies that value families," she said.

Biden promised at first to be "very brief," and spoke for just nine minutes. But after a full program, he decided to chime in again, going on at length about health care and the importance of appointing the right Supreme Court justices. Despite throwing out red meat, he told the crowd repeatedly not to applaud.

"Remember when you go out there, it's not merely a women's right to choose that at stake," he said. "It's whether or not you're going to be able to demand that you are treated equally in every aspect of your life. ... So please help us. Please help us. The country needs Barack Obama as president."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Right track/wrong track numbers pose a challenge for McCain ...

15% say country is moving in the right direction
76% say contry is moving in the wrong direction

Reilly: When you look at survey responses on direction of the country and favorability numbers of the candidates, the dynamic looks like 1980, which was "fairly close down the wire, and then it broke one way."

"That is a possibility" this year, Reilly said. But he predicted that the race will be tighter.

(JS)

LITTLETON, CO - An emotional Joe Biden told members of his home-state delegation this morning the honor of being tapped as the vice presidential nominee "pales in comparison" to the feelings he has for the people of Delaware.

Biden said that most of his life has been lived in the public arena, since "y'all got me started so young," and he thanked the small contingent of delegates for helping him and his family through tragedy.

"I wish we could have done this in private, because you know, I don't know whether I would have made it through a lot of the tough times in my life without you guys," he said. "You're a big deal. The Democratic Party's been my home. The Delaware Democratic Party has been my family."

In brief remarks, Biden also joked that the only reason he accepted the VP nod was "so the Delaware delegation could be moved up front." He said he's used to operating as a "one-man band," but that he was happy to be part of a team, praising the Obamas for the welcome they've felt. In particular, Biden said that Michelle Obama's speech last night would be remembered years from now as a turning point in the campaign.

"Not Barack Obama, not Joe Biden, not Ted Kennedy, but Michelle Obama's speech," he said. "She gave a window to the American people into who she is and what she is and what really goes through her brain. And it was absolutely just incredible and I promise you, it's real."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Full Biden quote available after the jump.

Garin: "At the end of the day electing the oldest person to be president would be a heavier lift than electing the first African American. There are people who will not vote for Barack Obama because of his race ... For John McCain, when you ask people the first thing that comes to mind ... age is the first thing they say."

Likewise, Garin said, former VA Gov. Mark Warner, a candidate for U.S. Senate, will talk tonight in his DNC keynote address about how the WH choice this year is about the future, not the past.

(JS)

On reported tension between Obama and Clinton supporters ...

Garin: "If there was some other news to cover we wouldn't talk about disunity in the Democratic Party."

Reilly: "The numbers tell a different story from the hype and theatre around the convention." Obama is ahead of where Al Gore and John Kerry were at this stage in the campaign in terms of the percentage of the vote he has within the party and percentage of the vote he has with independents.

"I don't see this base problem," Reilly added. "I don't see this disunity problem."

Reilly credited the McCain camp, however, for successfully pushing that storyline during the Denver convo.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Reilly on convention fallout for Obama: "I think it's unlikely that yo're going to see a big bump."

Garin -- "We've never had two conventions in the last week of Aug and first week of Sept. ... The idea that it ought to be like what Bill Clinton got in 1992 is as silly as all the other things McCain is saying."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

FD's Reilly on the Diageo/Hotline survey:

"There is a high degree of confidence among Democrats that their nominee will win." And there's a "significant difference between where Democrats and Republicans are on that."

The head to head:

Pre Barack Obama veep announcement of Joe Biden --
Obama, 45% -- John McCain, 41%

Post Dem veep debut --
Obama, 46% -- McCain, 41%

Overall: Obama, 44% - McCain, 40% with 12% undecided

Obama has a +8 advantage on the economy and a +12 advantage on energy. McCain has a +9 advantage on Iraq, but voters are less concerned about the management of the war than they were in 2004.

The economy (38%) is the overriding issue of concern to voters, followed by gas prices (9%), the war in Iraq (6%) and unemployment/jobs (4%).

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Good morning, all. Live blogging today's terrific National Journal panel from this beautiful, sprawling bookstore in downtown Denver.

Today's host is The Hotline's own Amy Walter. Your panel: Ed Reilly, President, FD; Mark Blumenthal, Editor and Publisher, Pollster.com; and Geoffrey Garin, President, Peter D. Hart Research Assoc.

We're releasing a new Diageo/Hotline survey this a.m. Stay tuned.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

The Hotline's Quinn McCord sat down with NE SEN nominee Scott Kleeb (D) on 8/25 to discuss his race with ex-Gov./ex-Ag. Sec. Mike Johanns (R). Kleeb said that, if elected, his priorities would be to tackle healthcare and energy issues, but naturally our focus was on the politics of the campaign.

Q: Was NE-03 in ’06 a winnable race, and what lessons did you learn from the experience?

Kleeb: “The two biggest lessons I learned, one is personal and the other one is more professional…. It was clearly winnable, we were winning. … Republicans decided to send the president out, illegal robo calls, send out as much money as they did against us, it became a national race, and then when the DCCC responded, it suddenly became not about two individuals running for office, but about two parties… Could we have prepared better for that? Yes, we should have, but we just didn’t quite think that in the 5th most conservative district in the country, that the president of the United States would have to come in and save the day. The other one is personal…. You know, I thought for a long time that I was supposed to have all the answers…. Then I realized that people don’t necessarily want you to have all the answers, they want to be a part of the process and be a part of the solutions themselves. And so once we thrust open the arms of the campaign, it’s no longer about me, it’s about all of us… you tell me about healthcare, you tell me about energy, you tell me about the economy… And that’s really what we’re starting with this campaign too….”

New John McCain ad revisits Hillary Clinton's much-discussed 3 a.m. of earlier in the campaign. Third McCain spot of the week to invoke HRC's complaints about her Dem rival's experience. Running in "key states."

The reviews of Michelle Obama's 8/25 speech are in:

PBS' Woodruff: "There have been spousal speeches, they've been successful on a scale of 1 to 10. I would say -- and journalists write the first rough draft of history -- that this one, at this stage, seems to be a successful one" ("NewsHour," 8/25).

FNC's Wallace: "I thought it was a beautiful speech, beautifully delivered. And if I can play fashion critic there, I thought that Michelle Obama looked just beautiful, but I can't help but feel after this first night of the convention that it was a largely wasted night. I can't imagine what this night did for the campaign. I mean, I know what they were trying to do, which is to humanize Barack Obama, to show that the Obamas come out of the mainstream. But I keep thinking back to what Bill and Hillary Clinton used to say in 1992 about all their scandals. They said people, the voters of America, care more about their futures than they do about the Clintons' past. And I think they care more about their futures than they do about the Obamas' past. ... There are only four precious nights in this convention, and again, I can't help but feel it was a largely wasted night" (FNC, 8/25).

GOP strategist Ed Rollins: "She is not a liability, she's a great asset and ... that's a great story about America in the sense that both of these young people could come to this place. What still has to be answered well of course for this week is, what are his qualifications to be President of the United States? I mean there's plenty of qualifications, and he's made a great contribution to society as has she, but what is qualifications to be President of the United States? And at the end of the day that's where we have to get to. But I think she did a great job getting started" ("Election Center," CNN, 8/25).

After the jump, more M. Obama and McCain stays up late.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

The RNC was quick to note that Barack Obama, in that super charming moment during which he spoke via satellite with his wife and daughters, poised on the DNC platform, misstated from where he was addressing them:

“I'm here with the Girardo family, here in St. Louis.” – Barack Obama to the DNC, speaking from, eek, Kansas City, MO

Why Michelle Obama scored big tonight:

-- She restated her and her husband's biographies so that middle class Americans questioning their patriotism and their roots know that they were raised by working class parents who struggled so that their children could pursue their dreams.

-- She credited Hillary Clinton -- in HRC's own words -- with putting "18M cracks in the glass ceiling" so that daughters, and sons, can aim higher in public life.

-- She reframed herself as mother, daughter and wife -- a trio of less intimidating labels than Harvard-educated lawyer.

-- She said, unequivocally, that she loves her country. In case anyone wondered otherwise. (Will it put that GOP talking point to bed? Unlikely. But the oppo stream has been pretty quiet so far tonight.)

-- And, finally, she allowed her children to step -- unscripted -- on the public stage in a moment that showed Americans that the Obama family is in many ways ... just like theirs. Kids miss their parents when they're away. That is a universal thing.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

In our second installment of "Backstage Pass," we hung out with CNN for a good chunk of the afternoon.

8/25, 2 pm MT: CNN Grill

Shortly after Denver was announced as the host city of the Dem convo, CNN came to town to scout locations for the CNN Grill, its venue that mixes "good food and lively political debate." Brooklyn's restaurant, located adjacent to the Pepsi Center and inside the security perimeter, was selected (renovations began 8/16).

CNN pioneered the concept behind the CNN Grill in '04 with the CNN Diner at the GOP convo in NYC. CNN Worldwide chief marketing officer Scot Safon, who headed both efforts, said the most important aspect he wanted to retain from the CNN Diner was the "feeling of a fun gathering place," because convos give "a sense of hope and excitement." Used for both hospitality and production, the space is manned by a crew of approx. 65, including some of Brooklyn's own employees.

More after the jump, including pictures.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

"It is clear to all Americans that something is out of kilter in our great Republic."

-- Former Republican Rep. Jim Leach, addressing Democratic convention-goers in Denver

Just a question ...

Was the former president snubbed?

Were Carter's Israel policies too much for a Jewish community struggling to firmly coalesce around the Democratic nom?

The DNC's Natalie Wyeth: "We wanted to acknowledge his tremendous efforts to help the hurricane recovery, so his speech to the delegates was delivered through the video package."

Pressed to explain why he didn't speak as planned and reported, Wyeth said, "Nothing changed."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DENVER -- Though ailing, Ted Kennedy, the fighter that he is, traveled across the nation to address his Democratic Party. Through somewhat stilted speech this evening, the lion of the Senate wove his story and values with Barack Obama's, and in so doing, pushed a divided party toward unity and reminded Democratic leaders of the enormity of what's at stake in the presidential contest.

Kennedy had the Pepsi Center on its feet. Veep nom Joe Biden turned out for his old friend. So did an openly-moved Maria Shriver, the first lady of CA.

The MA senator called for an end to the gridlock that has plagued Washington, and pledged to return to the Senate in January to work on those issues that have fueled his devotion to public service, health care in particular.

Highlights:

"My fellow Democrats, my fellow Americans, it is so wonderful to be here. And nothing is going to keep me away from this special gathering tonight."

"Barack Obama will close the book on the old politics against race and gender, and group against group, and straight against gay."

"The work begins anews. The hope rises again. And the dream lives on."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

House candidates may not be the focal points of the Dem Convo, but many are still here, fishing for votes and support among the myriad of delegates and fundraising types that populate the grounds of the Pepsi Center.

It's not because their party leaders necessarily want them here. With a bit more than 10 weeks before voters head to the polls, this is prime campaign season. DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (MD-08) today reiterated his cmte's stance that "Your voters are at home, you should be home campaigning there." And in late Aug, NRCC Chair Tom Cole (OK-04) told candidates in competitive races to stay away from the GOP Convo in St. Paul, saying it'd be a "waste of time" to attend.

But after spending time with state Sen./Iraq vet John Boccieri (D) this p.m., it's hard not to see the benefits for top candidates of attending their convo. Trying to hustle through a crowded room of OH Dem delegates, he was mobbed for 15 minutes by adoring fans (including Gov. Dem Ted Strickland), and called Congressman more than once. Those same donors and delegates will be key to his GOTV operation in his bid to win Rep. Ralph Regula's (R-OH 16) open seat.

A trip to Denver carries a few risks for Dems like Boccieri, not including the time away from the campaign trail. He also risks being associated with nat'l Dems, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (CA-08), who's been a fixture here. Boccieri's opponent, state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R), has already attacked him for rubbing elbows with the DC "elite," while he's at home attending local events, like the Stark Co. fair.

But Boccieri says he's here to work on the DNC's Vets and Military Families Council, which meets tomorrow. After that, he's headed back to the CD, where he'll also attend the Stark Co. fair. "I'm here because I want to make sure our party's platform is weighted heavily towards veterans," Boccieri said. "And if my opponent wants to beat me up for standing up for veterans, then he smacks one veteran he smacks them all."

(TIM SAHD)

DENVER -- Michelle Obama, the first headliner of the DNC, will speak tonight about her husband, the values that have driven him and why she believes he'll make a fine president, according to Barack Obama's campaign.

Her speech is expected to turn on faith and family, and she'll be previewed this evening in a film -- "South Side Girl" -- narrated by her mother, Marian Robinson. The film will highlight her Chicago upbringing. Craig Robinson, Michelle's brother, will introduce her.

Meanwhile, Ted Kennedy is in Denver and expected to make an appearance this evening, if not a speech.

And here's the full line-up: Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi; Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri; Barack Obama's sister Maya Soetero-Ng and Craig Robinson, Michelle Obama's older brother; Jerry Kellman, mentor and long-time friend of Barack Obama; Representative Jesse Jackson, Jr.; former Indiana Representative Lee Hamilton; Tom Balanoff, President of Illinois SEIU; Nancy Keenan, President of NARAL Pro-Choice America; NEA President Reg Weaver; AFT President Randi Weingarten; Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan; State Comptroller Dan Hynes; Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis; Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle; and Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper.

DENVER -- In a short lunchtime speech, MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D), a close political ally of Barack Obama, offered a critique of his own party, heralding the latest political era as one defined by the “declining significance of party.”

“First of all, I’m a proud Democrat,” Patrick said. “But I am a frustrated Democrat and have been for a long time because we have until recently said little about why we should [govern].”

Voters crave an understanding of the differences between the two major parties, he said.

“As long as we have tried to blur that difference as a political strategy I believe it has hurt us,” Patrick said. “And I believe it has been a particular problem right now.” Adding, “I believe what people are looking for is visionary, positive leadership. Not the answer to every problem in everybody’s life.”

New Barack Obama TV spot songfully minimizes John McCain's knowledge of the economy. The Obama campaign says it will run air on national cable and in battleground states around the country beginning today.

New RNC independent expenditure ad airing through Sunday in major markets in Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and western Pennsylvania. The buy is between $2M and 2.5M. Pushing the GOP theme of the week, that Hillary Clinton is right about Barack Obama's inexperience ...

On convention-goers in Denver:

DENVER -- Talk about sustainability.

A person could park in The Big Tent -- site of the cush Google Lounge, The Huffington Post's yoga Oasis and rows and rows of bantering bloggers -- and never leave.

The Big Tent, housed and hosted by the Alliance For A Sustainable Colorado, among others, provides hungry bloggers (and visitors) with:

-- burritos;

-- fruit smoothies, free (operative word here) massages and sites to charge laptops and berries (each courtesy of Google);

-- on this day, a Daryl Hannah sighting; and

-- stimulation for the old noggin (about 100 notables, including an energized T. Boone Pickens, have signed up to talk to the crew here).

Knicknacks aside, there is a broader and more urgent mission in this effort, according to Aaron Nelson, project director for the Alliance: to provide bloggers a spot to do their thing and to spread the word about the sustainability movement.

"The Big Tent is an opportunity for us to engage new media in our 50 state plan of unifying sustainability movements in every state," Nelson said.

For $100, bloggers are provided with eats and free WiFi for the week. Some 500 have signed up to work from the tent.

They're also getting a bunch of attention, as mainstream media from TIME, Mother Jones, CQ, Portfolio and more browsed the tent during the first morning of the Democratic convention. Bloggers are typing feverishly as members of the MSM gawk at the scene, like safarigoers in the wild watching a lion devour the last of innards an impala.

"This is really weird," blogger Linda Kellen Biegel of Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis said of the scene. "All this media taking pictures of all this media."

Over one doorway hangs this Ethiopian proverb: "When spider webs unite, they can tie up a lion."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

PHOENIX, AZ – At his wife's high school alma mater today, John McCain made a push for the youth vote with an endorsement from Puerto Rican Reggaeton star Daddy Yankee – real name, Ramon Ayala. The campaign called a "press conference" in the Central High School library where Yankee – who McCain called Ramon – announced his support for McCain.

"I'm here endorsing Senator McCain because I believe in his ideas and his proposal to lead this nation," Yankee said, as high school girls swooned on a riser behind him. "And like I said before, he's been a fighter for the Hispanic community and I know that me personally, I choose him as the best candidate because he's a fighter for the immigration issue. So for me he's the best guy to lead this nation."

Yankee is most famous for his song "Gasolina," which translates to 'gasoline' but has nothing to do with offshore drilling or McCain's energy policy mantra, "Drill here, drill now."

A rough translation of the song's chorus, "A ella le gusta la gasoline - dame mas gasoline," shows that Yankee might be singing about a different kind of 'gasoline' than McCain talks about on the stump. The singer proclaims, "My babe doesn't stop from hanging out because she likes gasoline," to which a female singer echoes, "give me more gasoline."

Although the campaign told the press corps that today's event was going to be a 'press conference,' it turns out that the only members of the media who might have had the opportunity to ask McCain questions were reporters from the school's paper. As McCain and Yankee shook hands following the endorsement, students were funneled towards the musician by the senator, receiving a quick, "Sup papa" or "How you doin' lady," as they shook Yankee's hand.

The only reference McCain made to the Dem convention beginning in Denver tonight was a vague compliment directed towards his opponent.

"This is a tough presidential campaign we're in," McCain said. "I have a very honorable opponent, and one who will receive the nomination of his party this week in Denver. And I look forward to the last couple months of the campaign with him."

McCain has not spoken to the press since August 13 in Birmingham, MI – the day his wife sprained her wrist at a fundraiser.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

Where else in Denver -- but the daily NJ panel at Tattered Cover Bookstore -- could voters see the venerable David Broder perched next to Playboy's Christie Hefner?

Check in throughout the day for more from the DNC, and be sure to check back tomorrow a.m. for NJ's Tuesday panel, moderated by The Hotline's Amy Walter and featuring Ed Reilly, President, FD; Mark Blumenthal, Editor and Publisher, Pollster.com; and Geoffrey Garin, President, Peter D. Hart Research Assoc.

Brownstein: Which states will decide the election?

Malcolm: NH, OH, NC

Marshall: Ohio, Ohio, Ohio, MO, CO

Pariser: CO, VA -- Both representative of "new fronts"

(JS)

A Q to the panel from William A. Marovitz, vice chairman of the IL Dem Party and husband of Playboy's Christie Hefner:

"People are going to be looking very hard at Hillary and what she does," he said.

"It's sort of inconceivable to me," he said, that Hillary Clinton backers aren't on board with Obama. Active members of the party know the difference between Obama and McCain, he said.

"I worry about Hillary's message, whether she's really there," he said. He also said that he's been told that HRC and President Clinton will leave the convention after he speaks Wednesday evening.

Malcolm: Lauded the "amazing job" Hillary Clinton has done to bridge the divide in the party. Called her efforts "unprecedented." "It's quite possible to be very disappointed in the outcome and at the same time very committed to electing Barack Obama," she said.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Stern: $85M SEIU campaign this fall. SEIU workers going door to door. Courting young and Hispanic voters. Hammering health care issue, and differences between McCain and Obama on hc. We are spending our time both on the issues as well as talking to voters.

Pariser: Investing in a big voter reg program. Goal: Half a million additional young voters registered in battleground states. 150K members will do GOTV this fall. In 2004, 70K. In 2006, 100K.

Malcolm: "The number one issue for our memebers, obviously, is electing a Dem president, Barack Obama, to the White House." But equally important, she said, is building a majority in the states. EL is backing 35 candidates for governor, Senate and House. Gen Y voters excited about Obama, but when you ask them about electing people to Congress, they're less motivate. "I think we all have a lot of work to do to say that when you go into the voting booth because you're excited about Obama, don't forget" to vote for other down-ballot Dems.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Gallup today, only 70% of Clinton voters said they'll back Obama. Other polls echo that number ...

Brownstein: "Clearly a problem there. How worried are you about those voters?"

Marshall said Obama needs to provide those voters with assurances on security issues. More empathy on the economy. Identify struggle of working class families. Frame message for them.

Brownstein: "How important is Hillary Clinton herself in improving that?"

Malcolm: "I think Hillary has been reaching out to them and will continue to do so and I think that's very helpful. And I think a lot of those voters are going to move back when there's a discussion about the issues." When women voters learn of John McCain's anti abortion rights position, they'll move to the Dems.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

And on to the panel: Andy Stern, President, SEIU; Will Marshall, President, Progressive Policy Institute; Founder, NDN; Ellen Malcolm, President, Emily’s List; and Eli Pariser, Executive Director, MoveOn.org.

Stern on Joe Biden veep pick: "I think Joe's a great choice." We have a one person focus group during the POTUS endorsement process; candidates spend a day in a worker's shoes. Biden was a school custodian in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. "He knows how to use a wrench, He knows how to talk to workers."

Marshall: "He is the blue collar, working class guy who can go out and fight."

Malcolm: "I think it's a great choice, too."

Malcom said women voters will look at Biden's personal story -- losing his wife and daughter in a car accident three decades ago -- and they'll see how he responded as a parent, going home to DE every night on the train to be with his children. Women voters will identify with him and see that he's always worked hard to be a good parent. "They're going to say this guy really gets my life," she added.

Brownstein: "Do any of you think it should've been Hillary Rodham Clinton?"

Without hesitation, Malcolm: "Yes," but she added, "I think he has made his decision. She has been very supportive of it."

Malcolm said she's fully committed to making sure the Obama/Biden ticket wins: "And we're going to work real hard for that."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Brownstein: For Obama, is there a significant difference in the accessibility of female blue collar voters and male blue collar voters?

Greenberg: Blue collar voters motivated by national security/patriotism concerns. Males more likely, and more devoutly, to question Obama's patriotism.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Greenberg's survey of Macomb County shows that Barack Obama trails John McCain by seven points, 46% to 39%, with 8% for Ralph Nader and 2% for Bob Barr.

Note that Bill Clinton lost Macomb by 5 points in 1992 and still carried the state, and the study indicates that "Obama faces nothign like the 20-point or 30-point wipe out in Macomb that contributed to Mondale and Dukakis losing Michigan handily."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Denver Atlantic Media political director Ron Brownstein begins his week-long interview series in Denver, so I'm live blogging today from the site of his panel discussions, The Tattered Cover Bookstore.

Brownstein starts today with Dem pollster extraordinaire Stan Greenberg who is debuting his new study of Macomb County Democrats.

Macomb County, MI, helped elect Ronald Reagan in 1980 and has become a key critical presidential battleground and indicator of national sentiment ... So here we go ...

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

All the Sunday shows shot on location in Denver and focused on Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden as VP.

Obama strategist David Axelrod, asked if the camp decided that adding another change candidate was "simply too risky": "He picked Joe Biden because he felt Joe Biden was the best partner for him. Joe Biden is a guy who obviously is accomplished and knowledgeable. ... He's an independent guy who will tell the president what he needs to know, even if he doesn't want to hear it. ... That's what you want in a vice president. But mostly, I think what attracted Senator Obama was Biden's wisdom. And not the kind of wisdom you get in Washington, D.C., but the kind of wisdom you get when you overcome adversity, tragedy in your life as he has; the kind of wisdom you get in the working class communities of Scranton, Pennsylvania and Wilmington, Delaware, where he's lived all his life. He's never lived a day in Washington, D.C." ("This Week," ABC, 8/24).

Obama VP vetter Caroline Kennedy, asked if Biden was at the top of her list: "Of course. Well he would be at the top of any list, right?" ("Meet the Press," NBC, 8/24).

Obama comm. dir. Robert Gibbs: "I think this choice says a lot about the judgment of Senator Obama. He went through a very methodical, pragmatic process. He listened to a lot of people. He talked to each of these candidates several times and came to what I think was a very good choice. He picked somebody who has unparalleled expertise on foreign policy, somebody who will help him rebuild the economy, put people back to work, make our country independent of energy. But I think, you know, Senator Joe Biden's personal story has been tested many, many times by personal crises. He's somebody that works in Washington but doesn't live there, and I think that says a lot about him -- doesn't forget where he's from. ... We're comfortable with our pick. We had a lot of great choices and we talked to a lot of different people. But I think we settled on a great pick and a great partnership to bring about change in this country."

After the jump, more Biden, short listers speak out and McCain's new ads.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

New John McCain ad features a former Hillary Clinton delegate -- Debra Bartoshevich -- who says in the 30-second spot she's backing the GOP nom in the general. Cllinton, Bartoshevich says, had the "experience and judgment to be president." She doesn't mention Barack Obama in the ad but notes that she'll support a Republican for the first time. "I respect his maverick and independent streak, and now he's the one with the experience and judgment," she says of McCain.

This marks the second McCain ad in as many days pushing conflict between former Clinton backers and Obama camp. Will Clinton have to reject this spot more forcefully than she did the ad debuted yesterday by McCain's team?

The McCain camp is saying only that the latest ad, as yesterday's, will run in "key states."

The Wisconsin Democratic Party voted last month to strip Bartoshevich, who promised to back McCain during her party convention, of her voting rights.

The Hotline presents our first installment of "Backstage Pass," a behind-the-scenes look at shows shooting on location at the conventions and other media events.

8/24, 8:30 am MT: Set of CBS' "Face the Nation."

Guests: KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D), and a "campaign quick check" with Washington Post's Dan Balz.

Scene: On the convention floor (CNN's "Late Edition" was shooting nearby).

Hot topics included the Biden pick and John McCain’s new attack ad featuring Hillary Clinton. Rendell: “This ad will have a three-day life span. When Hillary Clinton speaks on Wednesday night, she will blow this ad out of the water.”

Host Bob Schieffer, as the panel dispersed: "That was terrific. You all were just terrific."

The most interesting (read pointed) exchange involving Rendell and Schieffer, however, took place just hours later.

More after the jump, including pictures.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Hillary Clinton will release her delegates Wednesday afternoon to Barack Obama following one last Team HRC rally at the Colorado Convention Center, a stone's throw from the DNC.

A source familiar with DE Dem politics agrees with the CW that Joe Biden son/AG Beau Biden (D) might eventually serve in his father’s SEN seat should Sen. Biden be elected VP… but perhaps not right away. The source notes that B. Biden turned down an offer to be appointed AG in ‘05, choosing instead to run in his own right in ’06. Moreover, B. Biden is in the DE Nat’l Guard JAG, and is headed to Iraq, which it might be difficult for him to serve in ’09.

If J. Biden is elected VP, it seems likely he would resign before 1/3/09, since a later resignation would mean hobbling his replacement with less seniority than other senators in the freshman class. Since DE’s new gov will take office 1/20/09, Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) would almost certainly be the one making the appointment under any timetable. If B. Biden is unavailable or unwilling to take such an appointment, she might well appoint a placeholder for the seat, allowing B. Biden to run in the 11/10 special election. The Wilmington News-Journal this a.m. floats the name of GOV candidates, LG John Carney (D) and Treas. Jack Markell (D) and Minner herself as possibilities. The Dem source notes, however, that Minner has endorsed Carney to replace her, and an appointment of Markell in any event seems unlikely. Should Carney lose the 9/9 primary, Minner might well consider him as a SEN possibility, but it’s unknown if he would be willing to serve as placeholder for only two years.

When B. Biden ran for AG, GOPers made little headway with the argument that he was simply biding his time for a SEN seat to open up, and they might well revive these arguments for an 11/10 special, should Biden run. But for the most part, GOPers are essentially a non-factor in this discussion, since J. Biden is expected to win SEN re-election easily over '06 candidate/activist/pol. commentator Christine O'Donnell (R) this fall (as DE law allows him to run for both offices) and either Markell or Carney is likely to retain the governorship for Dems on the Election Day.

(QUINN MCCORD)

Wondering if your state delegation got a money spot on the convention floor? Courtesy of the DNC, a handy map of who's where.

EAU CLAIRE, WI – Barack Obama told a crowd of supporters at a barbeque here Sunday that the Democratic convention, which begins tomorrow in Denver, would show that he is just like them and understands their concerns.

He also declared his introduction of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden a success.

"We’re going to be going to the convention this week and if you’re paying attention, you’ll have a sense of who I am," he told a crowd of about 300 people at Rod and Gun Park. "My wife, Michelle, speaks tomorrow night, and you’ll have a sense of who she is, and what our values are, and how we’re raising our kids, and I think what you’ll conclude is he’s sort of like us. He comes from a middle class background. He went to school on scholarships. He had to pay off student loans. He and his wife had to worry about child care. We had to figure out, you know, how to start a college fund for their kids, um, you know, you’ll find out he’s pretty much like us."

He used the same lines against John McCain he has used all week -- making references to a McCain advisor's remarks about America being a "nation of whiners", bringing up the Arizona senator's quip during the Saddleback Forum about $5 million being "rich" and his inability to remember the number of homes he owns -- to paint him as out of touch. He said Democrats would look out for middle class concerns, not Republicans.

"When you don't know how many homes you have, and you define being wealthy as having $5 million, then what that tells me is that you just don't get what's going on with people's everyday lives – the folks who are making $20,000 a year, or $40,000 a year or $60,000 a year, that are trying to get their kid into college, or trying to pay their healthcare premiums at the end of every month," he said to rising cheers and applause. "That's who I'm fighting for. That's what built America, that middle class. This election is about you."

He spoke briefly about his announcement Saturday that Biden, a six-term senator and foreign policy expert, would be his running mate.

"We had a great day yesterday when I had the honor of introducing my selection as running mate, the person who I believe will be the next and one of the greatest vice presidents in the history of the U.S., Joe Biden," he said.

At one point, the senator sought to assure people that he would not take away their guns.

"I saw signs coming in saying hes gonna take away your guns, even though I have repeatedly said I support strongly the Second Amendment and the legal right to bear arms," he said, referring to several people who were out on the road leading to the event holding McCain signs and signs reading "No hunting Obama."

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)

Hillary Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand issued a statement today in response to John McCain campaign's new ad "Passed Over" ...

"Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is clear. She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

A welcome message to supporters from the newest addition to the Dem ticket ...

Buzz words: Catholic, worked on every aspect of U.S. foreign policy, VAWA, middle class, known for speaking my mind ...

New John McCain ad raises the matter of Hillary Clinton's exclusion from the Dem ticket. Female narrator even. Will run in "key states."

Script after the jump.

Although most liberal bloggers are comfortable with Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden as his running mate, few are excited about it. Biden has never made much of an effort to reach out to the netroots (he was the only Democratic Presidential candidate to skip the 2007 YearlyKos convention), and the netroots have been very critical of Biden's votes for the Iraq War resolution and the 2005 bankruptcy bill.

Still, most liberal bloggers preferred Biden to the other candidates rumored to be at the top of Obama's short list (namely, IN Sen. Evan Bayh and VA Gov. Tim Kaine), and all in all, they consider him an acceptable VP choice. Here's a sampling of the (mostly lukewarm) reactions to the Biden announcement from around the liberal blogosphere:

* Duncan Black: "[Biden's] not my fantasy VP choice or close to it, but nonetheless pretty good. Better than many of the other floated names."

* Matt Stoller: "Biden's not a horrific pick, he's fine considering the choices."

* Matthew Yglesias: "[Biden] wasn't my favorite choice for the gig, but he was far from my least-favorite choice either."

Another blogger who was less than thrilled about the pick was Markos Moulitsas, who has been a particularly harsh critic of the so-called "senator from MBNA". The Daily Kos founder recently argued that Obama should pick "a fresh face in politics who reinforces [his] message of change," such as KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. He warned that "any pick designed to cover up a 'flaw' in Obama (i.e. 'lack of foreign policy credentials') only accentuates those flaws." Unsurprisingly, Moulitsas was disappointed that Obama decided to go with Biden: "If Obama's core message is 'change' and 'judgment' based on his prescience on the Iraq War vote, well then, Biden is the exact opposite of those things."

Still, the netroots believe that Biden has his good qualities. Many liberal bloggers are excited about Biden's willingness to play the role of attack dog, which he amply demonstrated during today's rally in Springfield. Lately the netroots have grown increasingly frustrated by what they perceive to be the Obama camp's lack of aggressiveness, so they're delighted that Obama chose a running mate who isn't afraid to throw punches. Todd Beeton calls Biden "the fighter we've been waiting for" while Steve Benen praises him as "extremely well suited to be an aggressive, attack-dog running mate."

Even Moulitsas, after criticizing the pick, wrote: "Given Obama's reluctance to play the partisan card, it should be fun having a real pit bull in the number two position to do some of the necessary dirty work."

Another quality that the netroots like in Biden is his working-class background. Many liberal bloggers have noted that Biden has one of the lowest net worths of any Senator, which they believe will be a useful asset in the Dem effort to portray John McCain as out of touch with ordinary Americans.

Jonathan Singer writes: "While McCain is someone who is wealthy enough not to know how many houses he and his wife own, Biden is not a wealthy man. [...] Even the city he was born in -- Scranton, Pennsylvania -- kind of embodies this connection to working Americans."

(IAN FAERSTEIN)

WILMINGTON, DE -- Joe Biden returned to his home here at 8:19 pm ET tonight. The motorcade was more than 20 vehicles long, including an ambulence, which had not been part of the morning caravan.

Suffice to say, we won't see Biden handing off bagels from his pickup truck anymore, as we found a much different scene at the home than the one we enjoyed all week. The square of grass in front of the entrance gate where reporters staked out the senator all week, and where earlier today more than 100 camera crews, reporters, well-wishers and area residents had packed in to watch Biden leave, is now the domain of Secret Service and New Castle Co. police.

In addition, an area across the street where cameras streamed live images all week is now blocked with cones, off limits now, we are told. Instead we find ourselves across the street and about 75 feet down the road from the driveway entrance.

A county police officer said the new measures are by order of the US Secret Service and county police. When I mentioned that cameras have been able to set up in closer proximity for stakeouts of the Clinton homes in DC and NY, for example, the officer indicated that the Biden family may have asked for additional space.

The only other notable change in the neighborhood -- a sign on Biden's neighbor's lawn saying, "Congratulations Joe and Jill."

Interestingly, Biden will spend Sunday at home, and not with his running mate.

[NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI]

Chemistry Watch!

In the holding room backstage the Old State Capitol in Springfield after the announcement today, Joe Biden tells some stories. (His wife Jill is on the right.) And Newsweek was there to capture it.

John McCain isn’t breaking any new ground by throwing Joe Biden’s quotes about Barack Obama back at him.

During the Democratic presidential primary debate in Des Moines last December, moderator Carolyn Washburn asked Biden:

“Senator Biden, you in your campaign have had a number of occasions to correct or clarify things you've said relating to race, including your remarks about Senator Obama being, quote, ‘clean and articulate,’ your comment about Indians working at a 7-Eleven; and recently to The Washington Post, in which you spoke about race, while describing disparities between schools in Washington, D.C., and Iowa. Do these gaffes or misunderstandings or however you would characterize them indicate you're uncomfortable talking about race or are people just being too sensitive?”

After Biden responded, Obama made a point of defending his Senate colleague:

“I just want to -- I just wanted to make the comment: I've worked with Joe Biden,” Obama said. “I've seen his leadership. I have absolutely no doubt about what is in his heart and the commitment that he’s made with respect to racial equality in this country. So I will provide some testimony, as they say in church... that Joe is on the right side of the issues and is fighting every day for a better America.”

Biden returned the favor this spring. In May, Pres. Bush told the Israeli Knesset, in what was widely regarded as a dig at Obama: “As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: ‘Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided.’ We have an obligation to call this what it is -- the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.”

In response, Biden slammed the president, telling reporters: “This is bullshit, this is malarkey. This is outrageous, for the president of the United States to go to a foreign country, to sit in the Knesset ... and make this kind of ridiculous statement.”

Biden has continued to defend Obama’s foreign policy credentials against GOP attacks. When Obama’s committee oversight of the war in Afghanistan was questioned by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) in July, Biden sent DeMint a letter saying that Obama had “displayed great leadership on this issue.”

The evolution of Biden from Obama’s campaign rival to tag-team partner was gradual, but now, apparently, complete.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

DENVER -- The conventional reasoning is that Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) -- the current chair of the Foreign Relations Committee -- was tapped as Dem VP because of his in-depth of knowledge of Iraq and his penchant for being an attack dog — one who could take on McCain in issues of international policy. But a few other factors may have tilted the scales in Biden’s favor:

Age. While Biden’s age and experience help compensate for Barack Obama’s youth, Biden also reminds voters of what a young face can bring to the Senate. Recall that Biden was elected to the Senate in 1972, a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday. Unlike many people, Biden can speak with authority on what a young person can bring to the table — a young person during a time of extreme adversity, no less.

He’s got that funny bone. A slew of recent articles, including a pretty scathing column by the NYT’s Maureen Dowd, have harshly brought to light Obama’s humor deficit. Biden, however, tends to shoot from the hip, and while some consider his off-the-cuff remarks a handicap, it can pay off for him at times, During the first Democratic debate in April 2007, Biden famously scored the night’s best laugh line when answering a question about whether he could assure the public that despite his reputation for being too verbose, he could be disciplined in the WH. He answered simply: “Yes.”

Charm. A small enclave on the Mason Dixon line, Delaware is hardly Southern. Still, Biden has that Southern charm thing down. During his WH run, he spent a great deal of time in South Carolina and developed a loyal following there, headlining events like the SC Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson dinner in 2006 and making headlines at Jim Clyburn’s fish-fry in 2007. He was the only candidate at Clyburn’s event to linger after the required speeches, mingling with the crowd till almost midnight.

Demographics. No, not all those already Democrat-inclined Delaware voters. But Biden is a Catholic-white man who could potentially help Obama win over those voters, who disproportionately supported Hillary Clinton in the primary. He’s also likely to help Obama with white-working class voters -- another group that has remained reluctant to embrace Obama -- in Rust Belt battlegrounds PA and OH.

His neutrality. Unlike the other Democrats who attempted a bid for the WH, Biden never weighed in when the race came down to Hillary and Obama. Chris Dodd, John Edwards and Bill Richardson all eventually lent their support to Obama, but Biden remained firmly on the sidelines. While many were convinced Obama needed to pick a VP who supported HRC in the primary in order to mollify her supporters and unify the Dems, by choosing Biden, Obama snagged the one thing better than a Clinton loyalist: a diplomat.

(NORA McALVANAH)

The Republican National Committee debuted a Joe Biden gaffe clock today. Probably no surprise to those who've followed the oft-verbose senator's career over the years.

From an RNC release: "Just 12 hours after being chosen as Barack Obama’s running mate, Biden made his first gaffe at 3:31 p.m. EDT. The RNC’s new clock will count the hours, minutes and seconds until Biden’s next slip up on the campaign trail."

Here, by the RNC's standards, is the first such gaffe:

The RNC's site reads: "Barack Obama's Off Message Man" ... Petty? Clever?

DENVER -- Having been en route today, I arrive with late-breaking analysis of the Joe Biden selection. Here are my thoughts for you, in a nutshell:

Biden is a plus in the two critical areas in which Barack Obama's weak: national security/foreign policy and blue collar credentials. I doubt even the RNC would quibble with Biden's skills in the diplomatic sphere. And his Catholic, Scranton, Pa., roots are, of course, indisputable.

But I'd argue there's a third void that Biden fills for Team Obama. He's a much easier grip and greeter than the IL senator. Biden appears energized by retail campaigning, while Obama often still gives off the vibe that it's obligatory.

While Biden doesn't reinforce Obama's change message, he rounds out a new political marriage -- with staying power potential. Obama/Biden. A very yin yang combo. Change agent, seasoned vet.

For Obama, the choice reflects a tacit understanding of his weaknesses as a candidate, and possibly as a leader. Biden's selection marks the most important decision of Obama's run, and it reflects a maturity that could go a long way toward convincing voters suspicious of the newbie pol's governing abilities that he is embarking on a serious, analytical exploration of what it will take for him to do the job.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DENVER -- Our very own Amy Walter argues below that Obama's choice of Biden makes it more likely McCain will ask Romney to join his ticket.

Which may be true. But consider this: the first ad McCain unleashed this a.m. featured Biden's soon-to-be-famous line from the WH Dem primary that Obama is "not yet ready" to be president. By throwing Biden's own words back at the new Dem ticket, McCain is effectively arguing that attacks between rivals during a primary battle remain legitimate fodder in the general-election campaign.

There was no more famous intra-party rivalry in the WH'08 race, in either party, than Romney vs. McCain. Did this new ad signal that Romney is off the short list?

(Then again, Romney's stock might have fallen even before Obama announced his running mate. Following McCain's housing crisis earlier this week, are some GOPers starting to reconsider the wisdom of nominating two multi-homeowners next month in St. Paul?)

[JOHN MERCURIO]

It didn't take long for newly-crowned VP nominee Joe Biden to take on his attack-dog role. Minutes into his speech at the Old Statehouse in Springfield, IL Biden knocked his old friend John McCain, tying him to President Bush and making it clear that Obama-Biden expects to get some more mileage out of McCain's houses gaffe last week.

From the AP: "John McCain would have to 'figure out which of the kitchen tables to sit at' when considering his own economic future, said Biden, jabbing at the man he called his personal friend."

But Obama said he's chose Biden for more than just his tenacity behind a podium. He called Biden “what many others pretend to be — a statesman with sound judgment who doesn’t have to hide behind bluster to keep America strong.”

Video of the speech here:

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

According to Delaware election law, Joe Biden can run for re-election to the Senate as well as Vice President. In 2000, then-Dem. Sen. Joe Lieberman ran for re-election while also serving as
Al Gore's running mate.

That said, it's interesting to note that when typing in joebiden.com or joebidenforsenate.com one is taken to Barack Obama's website. A sign that Biden is confident he'll be checking in at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. in '09 instead of Capitol HIll? Or just a short term redirect on his big day?

DENVER -- By picking DE Sen. Joe Biden, Barack Obama has decided that he'd rather protect his weak flank (national security and experience) than try to promote his strengths (time for change, new direction). Does this mean that John McCain will have to play defense too?

If so, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney would seem to be that defensive choice. While some conservatives see Romney as an unacceptable choice, he would argubably cause less strain with the social conservatives than a pro-choice pick like ex-Gov and ex-Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge or Sen. Joe Lieberman.

That McCain's been closing the gap in national polling seems to mitigate against the need for him to make a "risky" choice like a Lieberman.

Where Romney would help McCain most, of course, is to help fill in the gaps for McCain on the economy. Who better to understand the details of the national economy than a successful businessman? In the wake of McCain's recent stumble over how many homes he actually owns, there's been some rumblings that Romney's wealth will be a drawback. Minutes after McCain's comments were published Democrats pounced on them in statements and, in Obama's case, with a TV ad. They'd have a field day profiling the two as the "elitist" ticket.

This would argue for Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty who comes from humbler roots ( he was the first in his family to graduate from college, for example) and can talk about his executive experience handling Minnesota's budget.

But who'd match up best against Biden, especially in a debate? Romney proved to be a solid debater during the primaries and is an accomplished attack dog. Pawlenty, meanwhile, has been on the national stage only as a peripheral player. His debut at a recent National Press Club outing got middling reviews.

(AMY WALTER)

The first Barack Obama/Joe Biden rally is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET today in Springfield, IL ...

Your Hotline team is traveling to Denver this a.m. We'll update On Call as soon as possible.

In the meantime, send along your thoughts about the Dem ticket. We'll post some reader react, too.

John McCain's camp launched this TV ad in "key states" ... Just the beginning of the GOP's Joe Biden v. Barack Obama oppo effort ...

John McCain spokesman Ben Porritt issued the following statement on Barack Obama's selection of Joe Biden as his running mate:

"There has been no harsher critic of Barack Obama's lack of experience than Joe Biden. Biden has denounced Barack Obama's poor foreign policy judgment and has strongly argued in his own words what Americans are quickly realizing -- that Barack Obama is not ready to be President."

Jennifer --

I have some important news that I want to make official.

I've chosen Joe Biden to be my running mate.

Joe and I will appear for the first time as running mates this afternoon in Springfield, Illinois -- the same place this campaign began more than 19 months ago.

I'm excited about hitting the campaign trail with Joe, but the two of us can't do this alone. We need your help to keep building this movement for change.

Please let Joe know that you're glad he's part of our team. Share your personal welcome note and we'll make sure he gets it:

Thanks for your support,

Barack

ABC News:

The United States Secret Service has dispatched a protective detail to assume the immediate protection of Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., a source tells ABC News, indicating in all likelihood that Biden has been officially notified that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has selected him to be his running mate.

Sources also tell ABC News that two others said to be finalists for the position of Obama's running mate -- Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Virginia Gov Tim Kaine -- have been told they have not been selected to be Obama's running mate.

But then again the previously-schmoozy Joe Biden hasn't made an appearance all day ...

WILMINGTON, DE -- The stakeout press have been placing regular food orders with local establishments. But when Stefanie Miller arrived from Dominos, no one here claimed the delivery. Could it be that the Bidens, who are believed to still be home, are ordering in?

Miller started walking down the driveway to Biden's house, but was stopped by the county police officer stationed beyond the gate. After determining that no one inside had placed the order, the officer placed a call to "Chris," whose name was on the tag.

"It's a prank?!" the officer asked incredulously.

He then walked out of range of reporters to get some information from the pizza villain. There was a credit number on file, but no telling if it was valid. Or why anyone would target the Delaware senator at this time.

The Biden home has fielded occasional visitors today, including the senator's state director and daughter. We have not seen the senator or his wife, leading some to wonder if he may have snuck out overnight.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

My friend and former Concord Monitor colleague, Ari Richter, emails with this interesting observation:

When you enter obamabayh.com -- for Sen. Evan Bayh, of course -- into your browser, you'll get bumped to Barack Obama's campaign Web site and a "Meet Evan" page that appears to be under construction. Click here to explore.

Head fake? Certainly possible. But, but, but, no obamabiden.com ... Just saying.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Barack Obama's campaign just announced that it will open nine new campaign offices SATURDAY in the HOOSIER STATE, bringing the total number of IN offices to 28.

Might the campaign have high-profile help for their debut?

Locations: Anderson, Columbus, Jasper, Jeffersonville, Marion, Plainfield, Richmond, Valparaiso and Vincennes.

New John McCain spot running in "key states" highlights Barack Obama's relationship with convicted felon Tony Rezko, noting that he helped Obama purchase his million-dollar mansion. Obama has never been linked to any Rezko-related wrongdoing.

A threatening letter with unidentified white powder was also received by John McCain campaign's offices in Centennial, CO, and Manchester, NH, according to spokesman Jeff Sadosky. Both headquarters were closed down and all workers were sent to the local ER for examination.

The Centennial office is the South Central Regional headquarters. All campaign offices have been put on highest alert, reports NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy.

The good folks at National Journal and The Hotline are hosting a series of terrific panels and lunches -- with party newsmakers galore -- in Denver and Minneapolis/St. Paul. I'll be live blogging the events, which will be moderated by Atlantic Media political director Ron Brownstein, The Hotline's Amy Walter, and the one and only Charlie Cook.

Full (tentative) schedule -- with featured guests -- available after the jump.

Also, check On Call often in coming weeks for on-the-ground news and observations from the staff of The Hotline and, of course, for our live blogs of each convention eve's speeches.

(JS)

WILMINGTON, DE -- The Joe Biden of stakeouts past -- the one who handed out bagels and stopped for quick chats -- is gone. A man who seemed to relish the attention of the press during the first two days of the veep vigil is now all business and acting, dare we say, more vice presidential.

News crews have had only brief sightings of the Delaware senator today. Instead of driving his pickup truck, Biden rode shotgun this morning as he left his house in the car of a staffer. Seen in more formal attire, Biden headed downtown to seemingly run errands, appearing to talk on the phone as he went.

Biden also stopped in at a local cafe, but the potential VP pick managed to sneak out a different exit. Asked if the senator went out a front or back door, a waitress smiled and said, "He's avoiding you guys. Stop following him."

Biden had stealthily ditched the press and returned to his home, dubbed "Lake House." Eventually his wife, Jill, and son, Beau, arrived. But less than an hour passed before Biden left again, this time driving a silver SUV with his wife. He offered nary a whisper or munchables for the press.

A Biden spokesperson said the senator doesn't have a public schedule today. At the nearest airport, there were no signs of an impending departure.

And still no text message from Barack Obama's campaign announcing the IL senator's running mate.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI and CARRIE DANN)

Barack Obama's pre-convention battleground state tour will make stops in WI, IA, MO and MT after his Springfield, IL, kickoff.

Here's a tentative sched -- no mention of the running mate -- provided by Obama's camp:

Sunday, August 24, 2008
Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Monday, August 25, 2008
Quad Cities area, Iowa

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Kansas City, Missouri

Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Billings, Montana

Thursday, August 28, 2008
Denver, Colorado

Penn Jillette phoned On Call recently to clarify that he's "probably" backing Libertarian candidate Bob Barr for president but not as enthusiastically as he would, say, Ron Paul. Barr, Jilette said, "took a little bit long to get on board" with Libertarian social positions, which broadly support the legalization of drugs and gay rights.

Jillette, a longtime Libertarian whose endorsement-ish Web video about Barr we ran earlier this month, said he "supports Barr more than Oprah supports Obama." But, he cautioned: "If you said to me right now, 'Penn, you have superpowers under a yellow sun because you were born on Krypton, we can make Ron Paul president. Is that gonna piss you off because you're behind Bob Barr?' I hate to insult Bob Barr, but I wouldn't have to think about that."

Perhaps wisely, Jillette downplayed the affect of his endorsement.

"Let's say we're in some crazy world where people listen to me - where I'm as big as Oprah, if I endorse Bob Barr, I destroy Bob Barr instantly," he said. "Because when they ask me the question, 'What do you think should be done about medical marijuana?' My answer is: 'Heroin should be legal.'"

(Hotline's EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

While a series of nat'l polls released this week showed a tightening contest between Barack Obama and John McCain, nine new state surveys precipitated a relatively steady EV tally. Obama now leads McCain 298-235 EVs in The Hotline's EV estimation, up slightly from his 295-231 EV margin on 8/14.

More interestingly, however, Obama's lead among solid states -- those in which a candidate is leading by more than the margin of error -- is now 218-196 EVs, approximately half his solid EV lead one week ago. In the interim, McCain added 26 solid EVs, while Obama netted just 8 solid EVs.

McCain's additional solid EVs come from NC and TN. In NC, the latest Tel Opinion Research (R) poll for the Civitas Institute (R) showed McCain's 3% lead from 7/16 doubling to 6%, which pushed it from lean to solid. Meanwhile the first TN poll -- conducted by Ayres, McHenry & Assoc. (R) for Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) -- showed McCain ahead 51-36% and moved TN from the Bush/Bush projection to solid McCain.

McCain this week also picked off CO's coveted 9 EVs from Obama's solid EV total. A new Rocky Mountain News/KCNC-TV poll by Public Opinion Strategies (R) and RBI Strategies (D) showed McCain ahead by 3% and moved CO back to lean McCain. Obama recouped 17 EVs, however, with new polls in IA and MN.

The Univ. of IA Hawkeye Poll -- the first in IA since 4/23 -- showed Obama leading McCain 50-43% and moved IA from the toss-up column to solid Obama. (NM, with its 5 EVs, remains the lone toss-up state.) What's more, a MN Public Radio News/Univ. of MN poll released this a.m. had Obama up 48-38%, which shifted MN's 10 EVs from lean to solid Obama. Also out this a.m., a Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN-TV poll conducted by Research 2000, which showed Obama ahead 44-43%; NV and its 5 EVs consequently moved from lean McCain to lean Obama.

The three other polls out this week all confirmed previous findings. An AZ State Univ./KAET-TV poll showed McCain maintaining the 10% lead he enjoyed in June; AZ's 10 hometown EVs remain solid McCain. Additionally, new surveys by Siena College in NY and Susquehanna Polling & Research in PA showed solid leads for Obama, although both have narrowed since the institutions' previous surveys.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 12 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results.

(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(Hotline's CARRIE DINDINO)

The Dem-fueled flap about John McCain's inability to recall how many houses he and his wealthy wife own could be punctuated with this tidbit:

The McCains also claim a family ... parking lot. Gasp! A pricey parking lot at that. It's valued at more than $1M, according to the senator's 2007 financial disclosure report, and is listed as: "Assets and Income of Cindy McCain and dependent children."

So the McCains own multiple actual homes, and Cindy McCain and her children own a parking lot that costs more than four times the $218K median 2007 U.S. home price.

That's a lot of bunches of arugula.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Note: All shows will be broadcast from Denver.

Meet the Press hosts TBD.

Face the Nation hosts PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) and Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL).

This Week hosts TBD.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-VA Gov. Mark Warner (D). The "Power Player" is Sheehan Assoc. pres./Dem convo media coach Michael Sheehan.

Late Edition hosts Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), House Maj. Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), CNN's Howard Kurtz, CNN's Gloria Borger, CBS' Byron Pitts, Washingtonpost.com's Chris Cillizza, Slate.com's John Dickerson, political analyst Keli Goff and San Francisco Chronicle's Debra Saunders.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

It's the kind of gaffe that could haunt a GOP campaign intent on keeping regular guys loyal to the Republican nom.

John McCain told Politico yesterday that he's not exactly sure how many houses he and his wife own.

"I think — I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

The AZ senator joked a few days prior during a visit to Pastor Rick Warren’s faith forum that he defined someone as rich if he earned $5M annually.

The Dems have been quick to paint the one-two comments as out-of-touch. And Barack Obama pounced today, noting on the stump that he only owns one home, reports NBC/NJ's Athena Jones.

"There's just a fundamental gap of understanding between John McCain's world and what people are going through every single day here in America," the Dem nom said.

Reports indicate that the McCains own multiple properties, including the family ranch in Sedona and condos in Coronado, Ca., Phoenix and Arlington, Va. Cindy McCain is heir to the family's beer distributor fortune and worth as much as $100M.

So what's worse? Obama's affection for arugula, or McCain's inability to remember how many properties he owns?

The GOPer's team knows that, particularly given the role the economy is playing in the contest, the episode could be damaging. Here's McCain spokesman Brian Rogers' push back:

“Does a guy who made more than $4 million last year, just got back from vacation on a private beach in Hawaii and bought his own million-dollar mansion with the help of a convicted felon really want to get into a debate about houses? Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people “cling” to guns and religion in the face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who’s in touch with regular Americans? The reality is that Barack Obama’s plans to raise taxes and opposition to producing more energy here at home as gas prices skyrocket show he’s completely out of touch with the concerns of average Americans."

(JS)

McClatchy's Talev provides this pool report of an a.m. meeting between Barack Obama and veep shortlister Gov. Tim Kaine:

Sen. Obama and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and Kaine's staff met for an hour in private at the Omni hotel in Richmond. They descended a staircase about 10:05 am to shake hands with fans gathered in the atrium - perhaps 100 people. Kaine went first down the line, Obama behind him.

Kaine and Obama are now en route to Obama's first event together.

UPDATE, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones: Obama camp staffer saying the candidate and Kaine did not meet for almost an hour, but for 15 minutes. They're saying Kaine was just in the building for an hour, there were photos with staffers etc.

The presidential noms have settled on a framework for for general election debates. They even issued a joint statement:

"The Barack Obama and John McCain campaigns have agreed to hold three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate in September and October sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates. The campaigns have come to the earliest agreement on presidential debates reached in any general election in recent history. This announcement reflects the presidential campaigns' agreement on dates, locations, and the formats for the fall debates. Campaign-appointed debate negotiators House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said they were pleased to have reached an early agreement to provide the American people with the opportunity to see and hear the candidates debate the critical issues facing the country. The two campaigns have accepted sponsorship of the debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates, subject to the debates being conducted under the terms of their agreement."

The details of each event, complete with sponsors, staging info, answer format and moderators, are available after the jump.

Sen. Joe Biden just left his house in a car driven by a staffer. As of yesterday, Biden had no official sked for today. Biden was dressed in a suit. He did not lower his window to talk, just gave a wave.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

VP speculation continued last night.

NBC's Allen talked with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) about the possibility of being John McCain's running mate.

Allen: "If asked to be vice president, would you say no?"

Lieberman: "You want me to answer that one? Well, I don't think -- I don't think I'm going to be asked. It's a hypothetical."

Allen: "Lieberman's appeal is that he could help McCain with independent voters."

Lieberman: "A tremendous experience that Senator McCain has, his record for bipartisanship, his willingness to take on his own party, is so much stronger than Senator [Barack] Obama's" ("Nightly News," 8/20).

Mike Huckabee: "I can't imagine Joe Lieberman being on the ticket. And I think John McCain knows that while Republicans could accept Joe Lieberman as secretary of defense or secretary of state, that's fine. ... Republicans want to elect a Republican not only to be president, but to be in the position should something happen and be the next president" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/20).

After the jump, more Veepstakes and CNN sits down with the WH '08ers

(KATHERINE LEHR)

DNC Chairman Howard Dean on Stephanie Tubbs Jones:

"We are greatly saddened about the passing of Congresswoman Tubbs Jones. Stephanie was a true American hero and inspiring leader, having spent a lifetime breaking barriers and standing up for her values. Just last week I was honored to have Stephanie join me on the campaign trail in Ohio where, as always, her infectious energy, enthusiasm and passion uplifted the crowd. Her voice will be greatly missed.

"This is a great loss for our Party and our nation. On behalf of the Democratic Party, we extend our thoughts and prayers to Congresswoman Tubbs Jones' friends and family during this difficult time."

A Cleveland Clinic official told the AP that Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones died tonight at 6:12 p.m. due to a brain hemorrage that resulted from a burst aneurysm.

New Barack Obama TV ad highlights John McCain's relationship with Ralph Reed, whose connections to Jack Abramoff forced him to bail from a recent fundraiser for the GOP nom.

Narrator: Ralph Reed, "In deep with convicted felon and lobbyist Jack Abramoff, but when the Senate investigated the senator in charge never even called Reed to testify. That senator? John McCain. And who's now raising money for McCain's campaign? Ralph Reed."

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the spot will run in Atlanta only, beginning tomorrow. The campaign did not release the size of the buy.

And NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports that the McCain camp responded to Obama's ad by invoking the name of a close pal of the Dem nom. "If Barack Obama wants to have a discussion about truly questionable associations, let’s start with his relationship with the unrepentant terrorist William Ayers, at whose home Obama’s political career was reportedly launched."

The Obama ad:

A new poll sponsored by Emily’s List shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 12 percentage points among women, a sign that female fans of Hillary Clinton appear to have moved to the Dem nom’s camp.

The survey of 1,406 RVs (MOE +/- 2.7%), conducted by former HRC pollster Geoff Garin, shows Obama ahead 51%-39%. Respondents who said they had a favorable opinion of HRC during the primary supported Obama over McCain, 78%-18%

“I think there’s been a tremendous amount of healing through the primary process, and I think Senator Clinton deserves a great deal of credit for that,” said Maren Hesla, director of EL’s “Women Vote” program, on a call with reporters. “It is women that will ultimately put [Obama] over the top in November.”

Women ages 18 to 27 were the strongest Obama supporters, favoring him 62%-32% over McCain.

Among “Gen X-ers,” baby boomers, and seniors, the Obama margin dropped from 30 percentage points to 8, 6 and 11 points respectively.

Obama has a 91%-3% edge with African American women and a 61%-33% edge with Hispanic women.

The Republican National Convention schedule was released today complete with daily program themes: service, reform, prosperity and peace.

Highlights:

-- 2000 Dem veep nom Joe Lieberman will speak Monday evening, as will Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, VP Dick Cheney, First Lady Laura Bush and President Bush.

-- The Huckster landed his much-lobbied for speaking spot Tuesday evening, along with rumored potential GOP veeps former PA Gov. Tom Ridge and AK Gov. Sarah Palin.

-- Cindy McCain will address the convention Wednesday evening (veep night). So, too, will Mitt Romney, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, former chairman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Veep possibilities each.

-- Govs. Tim Pawlenty and Charlie Crist are on the sched for Thursday.

Full line-up, with other thematic details, available after the jump.

Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH), the first African-American woman to represent OH in the House, is in critical condition at a Cleveland hospital after suffering an aneurysm. CNN and other outlets have been reporting her death. But her physician, speaking at a press conference moments ago, said she has limited brain function but is still alive.

The Cleveland Plain-Dealer reported earlier today that Tubbs Jones died after suffering a brain aneurysm last p.m. while driving and that she was removed from life support at 12:19 pm.

During the WH primaries, Tubbs Jones has gained notoriety for being one of Hillary Clinton’s biggest supporters on Capitol Hill. She served as nat’l co-chair for the campaign and remained loyal to Clinton even as many other African-American Reps. changed their allegiance to Barack Obama after seeing him rack up impressive victories in their CDs. Obama carried Tubbs Jones’ Cleveland-based CD in the primary.

(TIM SAHD)

CNN is reporting that Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-OH) has died after an aneurysm. Details to come ...

WILMINGTON, DE - With a growing horde of reporters crowding his driveway, Sen. Joe Biden is doing his best to hold his tongue.

Under constant surveillance the could-be-VP is deflecting questions about his status, one day after he raised eyebrows after professing not to be "the guy" (then later claimed to know nothing more than we did). Instead, he is presenting himself as an everyday Joe Sixpack, heading out in his pickup truck and offering reporters some of the casual conversation for which the the loquacious senator is known.

"A successful dump," he shouted from his car window when asked if he had anything to report. Earlier, he left with a pile of logs in the back of his truck.

"I got a second load, guys, anybody wants to help me, let me know," he said.

Asked if he had any reaction to the announcement that his caucus-mate Joe Lieberman would speak at the Republican National Convention, Biden said, "I have not had another single thing I can tell you."

New 30-second Barack Obama spot out today contrasts the Dem's tax plan with that of his GOP rival. The ad, which will run in CO, MI, MO, NH, OH, PA, WI and VA, asserts that John McCain will give tax breaks to corporations -- especially Big Oil -- while Obama will cut taxes for the middle class.

John McCain's camp beats the celebrity drum again in the second new radio spot out this week. This one is running in what they'd only describe as "key states."

Narrator: "Celebrities like to spend their millions. Barack Obama is no different. Only it's your money he wants to spend. Obama's got plans -- big plans -- for your money. ... Massive spending. ... Piling more debt on the backs of your children and grandchildren."

Note that the crowd chant of "Obama, Obama" opens this ad. Full script available after the jump. Listen to it here:

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Veepstakes was the talk of the TV last night. On the GOP side, most of the discussion focused on the possibility of John McCain picking a pro-choice running mate.

FNC's Cameron: "Sources at the Republican National Committee now say they've been told by McCain's aides that the former Pennsylvania governor, Tom Ridge, is no longer being considered" ("Special Report," 8/19).

Ridge, on Rush Limbaugh saying it would be a shame for McCain to pick a pro-choice running mate: "Well, Rush has never known to be shy about his giving his opinion and I'm sure his point of view may be held by other people within the party. All I know is that my friend of 25 years, John McCain, is strongly and forever pro-life. He also believes that you shouldn't be judgmental on other people's point of view with regard to this and some other very difficult issues. And, as I said before, I think he will make the right choice for his vice presidential nominee. And, at the end of the day, I think Rush and everybody else, hopefully, can see that there's a clear choice, regardless of who the vice presidential candidate, a choice that says John McCain is needed now as president of the United States in this perilous time" ("Situation Room," CNN, 8/19).

MSNBC's Matthews, on why Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) is being more seriously considered than Ridge for VP: "Why can't he pick a pro-choice Republican, like Tom Ridge, a war hero, down-the-line Republican ... because he's pro-choice, but you can pick a Joe Lieberman even though he's pro-choice? Explain."

NBC's Mitchell, in response: "Because if you talk to people like Rich Lowry of the National Review, it would shake it all up. You would come out and you'd say, I'm a one-term president. It is a coalition ticket. We're going to shake up and change Washington. We're going to get something done. ... And then turn it back to the Republican Party" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 8/19).

More Mitchell: "The Lieberman possibility is so serious that state party officials say that they have been asked to check their party rules to see if a non-Republican can be on the ballot in their states. And if he does choose Lieberman, McCain would promise to serve for only one term" ("Nightly News," 8/19).

More Veepstakes after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Sen. Joe Biden just returned to his home after more than an hour and a half, stopping at the foot of his driveway to hand over some coffee and bagels from a place called Brew HaHa! to the stakeout reporters. He didn't answer questions tossed in the process, saying only that it was nice to see us again.

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

Val Kilmer, Sean Penn, Cindy Sheehan, Tom Morello, Jello Biafra, Nellie McKay, and Ike Reilly will all appear at the Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez "Open the Debates" Super Rally next week in Denver. The event is scheduled for 8/27 at 6 p.m. at the University of Denver Magness Arena.

Penn’s not showing up to make the pitch for Nader – he has bigger fish to fry.

“I met with Sean and we talked at length," Nader said in a campaign release. "He was very clear that he is not currently planning to endorse any candidate in the general election, but that he has serious concerns about the state of the presidential debates."

The Commission on Presidential Debates has said that for a candidate to participate he must reach ballot access requirements and reach 15% in at least five national polls.

(Hotline’s EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

Sen. Evan Bayh left his Washington home at around 8:25 am this morning and waved to reporters from his car. Bayh was dressed in a t-shirt and baseball cap. His destination was not immediately known. His window was rolled up and, he did not say anything.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

The AFL-CIO is dropping a new mailer today in OH, MI and PA, criticizing John McCain's position on trade. The piece, which plays on the Olympics, is being sent to union swing voters in 50K homes.

Dennis Philippi, an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers member from North Canton, OH, is quoted on the mailer: “2.3 million jobs outsourced to China? That’s not a world record I would be proud of.”

The lit alludes to the union's position that the Bush administration, with McCain's backing, has allowed China to violate trade rules and its own labor laws to boost the profit margins of large multinational corporations at the expense of workers.

Per AFL-CIO officials:

"This piece is going to a microtargeted universe of union swing voters in neighborhoods and communities hardest hit by China trade, where factories have shut down and jobs have been outsourced. Many of these voters are aware of the damaging effects to their communities of unfair trade with China under the current model, but many do not know the extent to which McCain has been supportive of current trade policy and the outsourcing of US jobs to China."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Despite being outspent $1.1M to $260K, ex-Treas. Cynthia Lummis (R) defeated rancher/businessman Mark Gordon (R) in tonight's open seat WY-AL primary. Lummis will now face a tough race against '06 nominee Gary Trauner (D).

Lummis started the primary as the frontrunner, due to her name ID earned as a two-time WY Treas and earlier as a state legislator. But Gordon quickly built a solid foundation for his run, thanks mostly to his personal fortune. Of the $1.1M he raised for the race, all but $100K came from his own wallet.

Gordon began running his first TV ads in early Apr., well before Lummis and the other GOPers began their TV campaigns. But while Gordon was mostly an unknown, he also had a history that many GOPers thought made him a Benedict Arnold to his party. He donated to John Kerry's '04 WH bid, and to Trauner's '06 bid against then-Rep. Barbara Cubin (R). He also served as a board member of the local chapter of the Sierra Club. Lummis used this information to her advantage, touting herself as the "True Conservative Republican."

On social issues, she was also to the right of Gordon. Gordon was endorsed by the moderate Republican Leadership Council, and while he said he is personally pro-life, he didn't want the gov't involved in the issue. His libertarian positions on social issues contrasted with Lummis, who stood starkly to his right.

In the end, Lummis fended off the upstart Gordon challenge with strong name ID and a more conservative primary electorate, who may have gravitated to Lummis' "True Conservative Republican" message.

Trauner will present Lummis a strong challenge. He'll have a very big financial headstart -- he listed $660K CoH in his pre-primary FEC report, while Lummis is likely to be broke -- and he also has the backing of the DCCC. But Lummis will also present a stronger challenge to Trauner than Cubin did in '06, when she edged him by 1K votes. In a state that gave Pres. Bush 69% in '04, Lummis starts with the edge, but if she can't put Trauner away by Oct, the DCCC may decide to spend its considerable resources here and make this another very close race.

(TIM SAHD)

Hillary Clinton will campaign for Barack Obama Thursday in Palm Beach and Broward counties. The first rally will be held at Florida Atlantic University Arena in Boca Raton. The second event is TBD.

A letter from Bill Clinton to Hillary Clinton supporters asking for donations. In exchange, he suggests you could join the Clintons in Denver. Remember HRC has 20 days post-convention to retire her campaign debt.

Dear XYZ,

Bill Clinton

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out this evening shows the presidential contest tightening with Barack Obama leading John McCain, 45%-43%. A statistical dead heat.

What's the bottom line? A month of negative advertising from the McCain camp painting Obama as an empty celebrity appears to have eroded the Dem's public image:

"Obama's favorable rating has sunk to 48% from 59% since the last Times/Bloomberg poll in June. At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%. By comparison, McCain's ratings have hardly budged during the same period: 46% of voters have a positive feeling about him; 38% give him negative ratings."

Barack Obama will launch a Battleground Tour Saturday with the previously reported event in Springfield. Details TBD.

As Joe Biden left his home a few minutes ago with golf clubs, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli asked him where he was going to be on Saturday.

Biden replied, "Here" and pointed down to his driveway.

As he pulled out of the driveway in the driver's seat of his car, he said to the press gathered near his gate: "You guys have better things to do. I'm not the guy."

The DNC just announced new convention speakers, including the Wednesday night line-up of MA Sen. John Kerry, Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, RI Sen. Jack Reed and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley.

Does this mean Reed is/is not still in veep circulation?

Former President Jimmy Carter will speak Monday.

And note also that NARAL Pro-Choice America President Nancy Keenan, who endorsed Barack Obama before Hillary Clinton officially exited the primary contest, and Planned Parenthood of America President Cecile Richards have been added to the program, Monday and Tuesday respectively. Interestingly, Ellen Malcolm, founder of Emily's List and a stalwart Clinton supporter, is not designated to speak.

Full DNC line-up available after the jump ...

Former VA Gov. Mark Warner, a candidate for U.S. Senate and the keynote speaker at the Dem convention in Denver, suggests to Bloomberg's Peter Cook that his successor would make a fine addition to his party's ticket.

Per a transcript of tonight's "Money & Politics" on Bloomberg Television ...

Warner on VA Gov. Tim Kaine: "I think he’d be a great choice. I mean, he’s someone who has got 20-plus years of public experience, both as a city councilmember, a mayor, a lieutenant governor, a governor. He’s really where the rubber hits the road in terms of delivering government services. He’s a man of deep faith. He served as a missionary in Honduras. He brings, I think, a life experience and a level of judgment to the position that quite honestly, I think would be a great addition to the Obama ticket."

Full transcript of the show is available after the jump.

A new John McCain Spanish-language radio ad running in CO, FL, NV and NM re-emphasizes the running GOP knock on Barack Obama that he's a celebrity, nothing more.

Narrator: "Fame must be grand for Barack Obama, but is he ready to lead in tough times?"

English script is available after the jump. Here's the Spanish version:

Still unknown when exactly Barack Obama first leaks word of his veep selection, but the Chicago Sun-Times' Sweet is reporting that the Dem pair will appear together Saturday in Springfield, IL, where Obama launched his campaign in February 2007.

Sweet: "State of Illinois authorities have beens asked permission by Obama folks to reserve the historic spot at noon. This does not mean that this is the time and place where Obama announces his running mate; that could happen any time from Wednesday morning on. Obama's time frame is shrinking, so the announcement is coming soon. The new vice presidential contender will jump on the road with Obama to showcase the new partnership. Springfield is a leg on the Obama roots tour."

Proof that everybody's getting into the veep prognosticating ...

The Palmetto Scoop is reporting that VA officials were called to Richmond for a line-of-succession meeting with the state's guv, an indication, perhaps, that Gov. Tim Kaine is Barack Obama's pick:

"The officials were mandated to leave an out-of-state conference and return to the state capitol in Richmond immediately.

"Due to the confidential nature of the meeting, details are scarce but the source said that either Obama will choose Kaine, or Kaine was given the impression that he would be chosen."

Head fake? You decide.

Newsweek's Howard Fineman writes this morning that he's spoken with two of Barack Obama's veep finalists and two individuals close to the process and that barring "a big surprise or last-minute change of heart," DE Sen. Joe Biden will be the Dem's running mate.

And the speculation continues ...

Barack Obama tells the VFW national convention that John McCain wrongly predicted that the United States would be warmly welcomed by Iraqis:

"Senator McCain predicted that we’d be greeted as liberators, and that the Iraqis would bear the cost of rebuilding through their bountiful oil revenues. For the good of our country, I wish he had been right, and I had been wrong. But that’s not what history shows."

Obama's full prepared remarks -- which include a litany of criticisms of McCain's position on the war -- are available after the jump.

During an event on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, John McCain is expected to strike a now-familiar theme -- that the nation's energy crisis demands offshore drilling and that his Dem rival wrongly opposes it.

Remarks available after the jump.

A Quinnipiac University poll out today shows Barack Obama leading John McCain, 47%-42%. Obama had a nine-point advantage in last month's survey.

Other interesting poll tidbits:

-- McCain leads 46%-41% among men, up from 47%-44% percent in the July 15 poll.

-- The presumptive GOP nom is also ahead among white voters, 48%-40%, compared to 49%-42% last month.

-- But Obama leads 53%-39% among women, compared to 55%-36% last month, and, not surprisingly, he's up 94%-4% among black voters.

-- Obama also has an edge with each age demographic except voters older than 55, who favor McCain, 47%-40%.

What's the attitude of liberal bloggers toward the VP candidates rumored to be on Barack Obama's short list? Distinctly cool. While opinions vary about the relative strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, it's clear that the netroots aren't thrilled about any of the alleged finalists, whom the New York Times identified last night as Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA).

But it's Bayh who has generated the most intense opposition from the netroots. Bayh's 2002 vote in favor of the Iraq War Resolution, coupled with his subsequent co-chairmanship of the hawkish Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, places him firmly at odds with the antiwar left. For online progressives drawn to Obama's consistent opposition to the Iraq War and to his promise to chart a new course in U.S. foreign policy, the prospect of Bayh as VP could dim Obama's appeal considerably. It is no surprise, then, that many leading liberal bloggers have joined a Facebook group expressing the view that "Bayh is not the right choice for Vice President."

While the other candidates on the Dem's tentative short list haven't generated the same degree of opposition as Bayh, they haven't generated much excitement either.

The netroots have been very critical of Kaine's views on social issues and his gubernatorial record. Still, they concede that Kaine's background could help reinforce Obama's outsider image, and they consider him a (slightly) more acceptable choice than Bayh.

Markos Moulitsas recently mused: "I'm starting to suspect that the Evan Bayh boomlet is designed to make Tim Kaine look better by comparison, because really, Evan Bayh is about the only Democrat who makes Tim Kaine look palatable by comparison as Obama's veep."

Rounding out the three leading contenders is Biden, whom many liberal bloggers prefer to Bayh and Kaine. While they acknowledge that Biden's Iraq vote and his 36 years in Congress may create image problems for Obama, the netroots admire the elder senator's debating skills and his willingness to engage the GOP on national security issues. That said, liberal bloggers aren't likely to greet an Obama-Biden ticket with an outpouring of enthusiasm. Atrios -- whose real name is Duncan Black -- recently gave Biden a less-than-ringing endorsement: "Of the people I don't really want to be Veep who keep showing up on those fake short lists people keep coming up with, he bothers me the least."

Others have been mentioned, of course, for the No. 2 job, including KS Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Hillary Clinton.

Sebelius' prospects of receiving the VP nod seem to have dimmed as of late, and the netroots have consequently given her less attention than they've given the other contenders. While most liberal bloggers view Sebelius favorably, some worry about her being "untested as a national campainger." Clinton, unsurprisingly, incites far more polarized reactions from the blogosphere. While some are convinced that Obama would be foolish not to pick the NY senator as his running mate, others worry about her "significant negatives."

Moulitsas writes: "Personally, I still think those 'significant negatives' would make her a terrible pick. Unfortunately, I'm resigned to Obama making a terrible pick with someone else anyway (Biden? Bayh? Kaine?), so if it's between one of those three terrible picks or Clinton, I throw my hands up in the air."

Unfortunately for the netroots, the two VP prospects who have arguably generated the most sustained excitement in the blogosphere -- Al Gore and Gen. Wesley Clark -- haven't appeared on any of the recent short lists. Several liberal bloggers recently launched a petition urging Obama to select Clark as his running mate, but the controversy following Clark's 6/29 comments about John McCain's war service on Face The Nation seems to have permanently sunk his chances. Meanwhile, Gore has ruled out the possibility of serving as Obama's VP, although some bloggers refuse to give up hope for an Obama-Gore ticket.

(Hotline's IAN FAERSTEIN)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Pastor Rick Warren made the rounds last night to talk about the 8/16 Saddleback Ranch forum.

Warren, on speculation John McCain heard the questions beforehand: "It's a totally bogus issue. It's challenging the integrity of the Secret Service, challenging the integrity of my security staff, and challenging the integrity of John McCain of which both Barack [Obama] and John agreed to the terms right up front. There's no way he could have heard the questions. The fact is that John McCain did get there a little late, and the truth is, I actually got to tell Barack Obama about one of the questions in advance that I didn't get to tell John McCain about because he wasn't there."

Warren, on NBC's Andrea Mitchell reporting the Obama camp felt Obama didn't do so well and have been privately saying that McCain may not have been in a "cone of silence": "Well, in the first place, I don't know that you can attribute to the Obama campaign. ... It was just a joke, it was just silly, to say the cone of silence. ... The Secret Service was with him the entire time, and then they put him immediately in the other building, so I wasn't even sure that he hadn't arrived by the time we were moving on stage" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 8/18).

More Warren: "There was a rumor going around that he watched the program on a monitor in the Green Room that we had him in. Well, there's only one problem with it. My staff ... disconnected that thing two days before it happened. So if they had happened to turn it on, it would have been all just static" ("LKL," CNN, 8/18).

After the jump, more Saddleback and VP predictions.

(KATHERINE LEHR)