A Generational Divide For Women
A new poll sponsored by Emily’s List shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 12 percentage points among women, a sign that female fans of Hillary Clinton appear to have moved to the Dem nom’s camp.
The survey of 1,406 RVs (MOE +/- 2.7%), conducted by former HRC pollster Geoff Garin, shows Obama ahead 51%-39%. Respondents who said they had a favorable opinion of HRC during the primary supported Obama over McCain, 78%-18%
“I think there’s been a tremendous amount of healing through the primary process, and I think Senator Clinton deserves a great deal of credit for that,” said Maren Hesla, director of EL’s “Women Vote” program, on a call with reporters. “It is women that will ultimately put [Obama] over the top in November.”
Women ages 18 to 27 were the strongest Obama supporters, favoring him 62%-32% over McCain.
Among “Gen X-ers,” baby boomers, and seniors, the Obama margin dropped from 30 percentage points to 8, 6 and 11 points respectively.
Obama has a 91%-3% edge with African American women and a 61%-33% edge with Hispanic women.
Interestingly, despite supporting Obama over McCain by 11 points, senior women still believe McCain “has a better understanding of the issues and concerns important to your generation.” Those same senior women give a 27-point edge to a generic Democrat running for president.
“John McCain really is the senior guy in more terms than just his chronological age,” Garin said.
Still, Garin added, “the important thing is not that Obama is underperforming with seniors. It's that he's doing so extraordinarily well with this young generation of women voters."
Voters who said they were “dissatisfied” or “angry” about the state of the country – a whopping 78% of women – favor Obama by more than 40 points. McCain wins “satisfied,” “proud” or “hopeful” voters by 14 points.
Garin noted that, "in a moment when half of this electorate says 'I'm worried and uncertain for the future,'" most women are looking for "a president who has a plan for a future." Women who say such a plan is the most important issue are, by far, breaking for Obama.
About an equal number of women say they want a president who delivers “hope and optimism” and “a feeling of safety and security.” Obama wins the first group by 60 points, McCain wins the second group by 35 points – and among women who think hope and safety are equally important, Obama wins by 12.
“John McCain has a bigger vision problem than Senator Obama has," Garin said.
McCain also has a devotion problem among women -- 79% of Obama voters said their minds were made up about supporting their candidate compared with 70% of McCain voters.
(Hotline’s NICHOLAS TABOR)