BATTLE FOR THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Alask Not

With six new state polls out since last week's 8/7 update, Barack Obama has expanded his Electoral College lead over John McCain. The Hotline estimates Obama now has 295 EVs to McCain's 231; one week ago, Obama led 292-234. Twelve EVs -- from IA and NM -- remain toss-ups.

This week's 3 EV swing stems from a striking Hays Research Group poll which showed Obama ahead 45-40% in AK. This 5% lead just eclipses the poll's 4.9% margin of error and moves AK from lean McCain to solid Obama. It should be noted, however, that Hays surveyed adults while the previous three AK polls -- which all showed McCain ahead -- surveyed LVs. If Obama were to carry AK in Nov., he would be the first Dem to do so since Lyndon Johnson in '64.

The five other polls released this week all corroborated previous findings. The latest AL Education Assoc. poll of AL LVs and Univ. of TX poll of TX RVs verified these states as solid McCain. Meanwhile new surveys by Franklin & Marshall College of PA RVs, Quinnipiac Univ. of NJ LVs and Strategic Vision (R) of WI LVs all solidified these Obama strongholds.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 14 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results. For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.

The state-by-state data is listed after the jump.

Electoral Distribution

McCAIN STATES           OBAMA STATES           TOSS-UP STATES
M  Lean McCain    23    O  Lean Obama    34    --        12
M+ Solid McCain  170    O+ Solid Obama  210
M* Bush/Bush      38    O* Gore/Kerry    51
Total            231    Total           295

(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

State-By-State Polling

St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER       DATE       SAMPLE   +/-  LEAD
AL  9  47% 34% AL Ed. Assoc.  7/29-8/4    571 LVs 4.1% M+
AK  3  40  45  Hays Res. Grp. 8/6-7       400 Adl 4.9  O+
-      47  44  Ivan Moore (D) 7/18-22     504 LVs 4.4  M
-      51  41  Research 2000  7/14-16     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      44  42  GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10      600 LVs 4.0  M
AR  6          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
AZ 10  38  28  AZ State Univ. 6/20-21     175 RVs 7.4  M+
-      50  39  Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20     630 RVs 3.9  M+
CA 55  35  50  PPIC           7/8-22     1401 LVs 2.6  O+
-      30  54  Field Poll     7/8-14      672 LVs 3.8  O+
-      40  47  LATimes/KTLA   5/20-21     705 RVs 3.7  O+
CO  9  41  45  Frederick (D)  7/16-22     700 LVs 3.7  O+
-      46  44  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1425 LVs 2.6  M
CT  7  35  57  Research 2000  6/30-7/2    600 LVs 4.0  O+
-      35  56  Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29    2437 LVs 2.0  O+
DE  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
DC  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
FL 27  45  40  Fabrizio (R)   7/20-28    1600 RVs 2.5  M+
-      44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1248 LVs 2.8  O
-      47  45  ARG (R)        7/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      49  41  StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29    1200 LVs 2.8  M+
GA 15  51  43  StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29     800 LVs 3.5  M+
HI  4          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
ID  4  53  37  Research 2000  7/28-30     500 LVs 4.4  M+
IL 21          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
IN 11  47  38  IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1    601 RVs 4.0  M+
IA  7          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Bush     --
KS  6  49  36  TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1   3004 RVs 1.8  M+
-      45  41  CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8       808 LVs 3.4  M+
-      51  40  Research 2000  6/2-4       600 LVs 4.0  M+
KY  8  56  35  Research 2000  7/28-30     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      50  31  V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17     601 LVs 4.0  M+
LA  9  52  36  SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28     600 LVs 4.0  M+
ME^ 4  31  51  CrticalInsghts 6/1-27      602 RVs 4.0  O+
-      32  46  PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18     400 Adl 4.9  O+
MD 10          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
MA 12  38  47  Suffolk Univ.  7/31-8/3    400 RVs 4.9  O+
MI 17  42  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1684 LVs 2.4  O+
-      41  43  EPIC-MRA       7/13-15     600 LVs 4.0  O
MN 10  44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1261 LVs 2.8  O
MS  6  51  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     600 LVs 4.0  M+
MO 11  43  48  Research 2000  7/7-10      800 LVs 3.5  O+
MT  3  47  39  Mason-Dixon    5/19-21     625 LVs 3.9  M+
NE^ 5  57  29  Research 2000  5/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  M+
NV  5  44  42  Mason-Dixon    6/9-11      625 RVs 3.9  M
NH  4  45  47  ARG (R)        7/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      43  46  UNH SurveyCntr 7/11-20     475 LVs 4.5  O
-      42  39  Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2    401 RVs 4.9  M
NJ 15  41  51  Quinnipiac Unv 8/4-10     1468 LVs 2.6  O+
-      36  50  MonmouthU/Gan. 7/17-21     698 LVs 3.7  O+
-      38  47  StrtegicVis(R) 7/11-13     800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      33  49  FDU/PublicMind 6/17-22     589 RVs 4.0  O+
NM  5          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Bush     --
NY 31  36  57  Quinnipiac Unv 7/31-8/4   1353 LVs 2.7  O+
-      26  44  Siena College  7/17-29     671 RVs 3.8  O+
-      32  51  New York Times 6/6-11      931 RVs 3.2  0+
NC 15  47  43  Research 2000  7/28-30     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      43  40  Tel Opinion(R) 7/14-16     800 LVs 3.5  M
ND  3  45  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     500 LVs 4.4  M
OH 20  44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1229 LVs 2.8  O
OK  7  46  24  Sooner Poll    7/19-23     750 LVs 3.6  M+
-      52  38  Research 2000  6/9-11      600 LVs 4.0  M+
OR  7          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
PA 21  36  44  F&M College    8/4-10      641 RVs 3.9  O+
-      42  49  Quinnipiac Unv 7/23-29    1317 LVs 2.7  O+
-      40  49  StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27    1200 LVs 2.8  O+
RI  4  25  53  Opinion Factor 6/18-27     500 RVs 4.4  O+
SC  8  53  40  Research 2000  7/22-23     500 LVs 4.4  M+
SD  3          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
TN 11          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
TX 34  43  33  Univ. of TX    7/18-30     668 RVs 3.8  M+
-      52  36  Baselice (R)   5/20-25    1005 RVs 3.1  M+
UT  5  57  29  Dan Jones Assc 6/16-19     405 RVs 4.9  M+
VT  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
VA 13          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
WA 11  35  47  Elway Poll     7/27-31     405 RVs 4.9  O+
-      37  48  StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27     800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      37  47  Moore Info (R) 7/9-10      400 RVs 4.9  O+
-      39  47  Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26    1200 RVs 2.8  O+
WV  5          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
WI 10  42  47  StrtegicVis(R) 8/8-10      800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      38  44  WPRI           8/3-4       600 LVs 4.0  O+
-      39  50  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1094 LVs 3.0  O+
-      37  50  Univ. of WI    6/8-10      506 LVs 4.4  O+
WY  3  53  40  Research 2000  5/20-21     500 LVs 4.4  M+

Key

SYMBOL STATES
M      McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
M+     McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
M*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Bush Twice
O      Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
O+     Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
O*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Both Gore & Kerry
--     Most Recent Poll Tied OR No Data & Voted Bush Once

^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.

(Hotline's MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)