Can't Make Him Say "Uncle"

With Sen. Ted Stevens (R) likely to win re-nomination this evening, attention will soon shift to his general election challenge from Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). And yet, many are wondering: is this a race Stevens can actually win?

By traditional standards of Senate race polling, one assumes not, since two post-indictment polls show Begich leading 56%-39% and 56%-35%. Nevertheless, this is still ruby-red Alaska, and the love for Stevens in some quarters is dismissed at any pundit's peril. Even so, these numbers are worse than ex-Sen. Bob Torricelli's (D-NJ) were in the late summer of '02. (He was hovering in statistical ties with his opponent around the low 40's.) Yet even those figures were sufficiently worrisome that a cabal of Dem leaders successfully urged Torricelli to withdraw from the race for the good of the party.

Obviously, this is a different year, a different party, a different state, and a different senator. But could anything similar happen before 9/17, the date by which Steven would have to withdraw for the AK GOP to replace him on the ballot? At first blush, the answer appears to be "no," since it would be difficult, if not impossible, to develop a list of GOPers with the clout and courage to approach Stevens with any such bold suggestion.

Starting from the top, we all remember how active the WH was in many '02 and '04 Senate races and how equally AWOL they were in '06. With Karl Rove gone now as well, it's clear that no guidance will come from that direction. Indeed, Pres. Bush had some kind words for Stevens as he passed through AK on the way to the Olympics. Nor is there any chance Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) would make any move to ease out her senior colleague. There are long-standing ties between the the Murkowski and Stevens families, and Murkowski was in no small way helped through her '04 squeaker by Stevens' vigorous support. She too has been verbally supportive of Stevens in his troubled times.

AK GOP chair Randy Ruedrich is also part of the AK GOP "establishment" wing of the party and was scarcely able to keep his own position when forces aligned with Gov. Sarah Palin (R) tried to oust him earlier this year. Palin herself, of course, has made comments somewhat critical of Stevens (and his son), so it's safe to say he's not looking to her for any career advice.

If any pressure is to come, it is more likely to originate in DC, though even in the Senate, there are no likely suspects to serve as the front man for such a venture. NRSC chair John Ensign (R-NV) has been outspoken in criticizing his colleagues collectively for their torpor, as he tries to prevent an all-out bloodbath this fall, yet it would be asking a lot of a relatively junior senator to single-handedly attempt to end of the career of the most senior Republican in the Senate. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is presumably interested in minimizing his conference's losses this fall, if he hopes to be Majority Leader someday, and yet he will be focusing on his own competitive re-election campaign for the next two months.

But perhaps the main reason no one will approach Stevens is because no one thinks it would work. True, nearly all politicians claim that they're running for re-election until the day they decide they aren't, but Stevens seems particularly determined to stick it through until the very end. Moreover, there is a decent chance that Stevens' trial could conclude prior to Election Day, and if he is convinced that he will be found innocent, he may well have concluded an acquittal might provide the last-minute bounce he needs to retain his seat.

Just as likely, though, he is not making any political calculations at all. Unlike the veteran pol Torricelli, Stevens has not had to submerge himself in the world of electoral politics for nearly 40 years, and for better or for worse, he may now exist in a plane where he simply has no use for such reckoning. [QUINN MCCORD]