Davis Apparently Defeated In TN-01
Going into tonight, Rep. David Davis' (R-TN 01) race wasn't on too many people's radar screens, especially considering what was going on in Memphis. But with all the precincts reporting, ’06 candidate/Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe (R) leads Davis by over 500 votes.
It’s a result almost no one expected. But if the lead holds, Roe is almost guaranteed to be the next Congressman. While he’ll face a nominal Dem in the general, the Almanac of American Politics notes that a Dem hasn’t held the seat in over 100 years.
The roots of Davis’ loss began taking root in ’06. Then, Davis won an open seat GOP primary with just 22%. Roe came in fourth place in that race with 17%.
But despite his very close ‘06 victory, Davis kept a pretty low profile in his first term, giving Roe the opening he needed to capture the seat.
In this primary, Roe aired a TV ad attacking Davis for pocketing thousands from “Big Oil.” Davis aired a response ad that called Roe a hypocrite for taking thousands of dollars from contractors, then giving them $10M in Johnson City contracts.
The back and forth proved costly. Roe raised $528K for the race ($259K of which was his own cash), and spent $304K. Davis raised just over $590K, and spent $512K.
Davis is the fourth incumbent to lose his seat in a primary this cycle. The others were Reps. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD 01), Al Wynn (D-MD 04), and Chris Cannon (R-UT 03).
(TIM SAHD)
Roe also attacked Davis for his opposition to stronger penalties for animal fighting. Cockfighting is widespread in parts of east TN, and Davis in turn opposed a bill to set felony penalties for federal animal fighting violations.
That bill passed, and was signed into law in May of 2007. Roe sent out direct mail attacking Davis for his vote on that issue. Cockfighters then turned out for Davis, and the Humane Society Legislative Fund turned out for Roe.
I suspect Humane Society members and sympathizers are far more likely to vote than cockfighters, and this issue surely contributed to Davis' demise.
Note to all legislators: teaming up with criminals like the cockfighters isn't a good re-election strategy!
Phil Roe ran a very negative campaign. The impetus for his second run came from the ultra-right wing former Sulivan County executive committee leader Keith Spicer. Spicer was angry that Davis did not give him a position in Washington. The Bob Jones' graduate teamed up with Lee Fish and still angry Richard Venable supporters to outst Davis. This has successfully split the Republicans in the First District especially since Spicer turned on his loyal supporters over the years to oust Davis. To note Spicer has failed to ever win an elected seat in either Tennessee or Minnesota his home state. Fish, who has been on the fringe of the E. Tenn Repubs for years, like Spicer, wants a position in Washington, one which Davis was not willing to give. The vote was so close that it will open up Roe automatically once he runs again in two years.
Spicer never sought a position in Washington, DC, and he will not accept one from Roe this time around. Lee Fish supported Phil Roe in 2006, the first time he ran, and never wanted a job with David Davis. Furthermore, it is far fetched to characterize as such kingmakers these, at most, marginally significant political activists.