September 2008

The latest installment of Katie Couric's interview with Sarah Palin:

Watch CBS Videos Online

John McCain, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have said they'll be in Washington to cast their votes on the bill.

The Washington Post describes some of the proposal's features:

"The bill is expected include three provisions aimed at winning over House Republicans: a one-year increase in Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation caps for bank and credit-union accounts, extensions of numerous business tax breaks that have expired, and a fix to the "alternative minimum tax" for individual taxpayers."

A photo of Sarah Palin in debate prep, courtesy of John McCain's campaign and forwarded to On Call by NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger. She's holed up at McCain's Sedona ranch.

Transcript of Sarah Palin's radio interview with Hugh Hewitt is available after the jump. Note this Q and A:

HH: Now Governor, the Gibson and the Couric interview struck many as sort of pop quizzes designed to embarrass you as opposed to interviews. Do you share that opinion?

SP: Well, I have a degree in journalism also, so it surprises me that so much has changed since I received my education in journalistic ethics all those years ago. But I'm not going to pick a fight with those who buy ink by the barrelful. I'm going to take those shots and those pop quizzes and just say that's okay, those are good testing grounds. And they can continue on in that mode. That's good. That makes somebody work even harder. It makes somebody be even clearer and more articulate in their positions. So really I don't fight it. I invite it.

SEDONA, AZ - Taking a break from debate prep, Gov. Sarah Palin called into the Hugh Hewitt radio program today, decrying the lack of journalism ethics and repeatedly referring to herself as "Joe six pack."

She also told the conservative radio host that she does not belong to any church, an apparent attempt to separate herself from several of the churches she has been known to attend, one where she received a blessing against witchcraft and another under fire for promoting an event to convert gays and lesbians.

"I think that there's a lot of mocking of my personal faith, and my personal faith is very, very simple," she told Hewitt, according to a transcript released by the campaign. "I don't belong to any church. I do have a strong belief in God, and I believe that I'm a heck of a lot better off putting my life in God's hands, and saying hey, you know, guide me."

The senior pastor of Wasilla Bible Church told Newsweek magazine earlier this month that Palin and her family regularly attend church there and have for six years. Another pastor said her youngest child, Trig, was "dedicated" at the church before she was nominated for vice president. But several Internet videos have shown Palin speaking and receiving prayers at Wasilla Assembly of God, where she said the war in Iraq was a "task that is from God" and received a prayer from a guest preacher asking she be protected from withcraft.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

AP: Rock stars Bruce Springsteen and Billy Joel are teaming up for their first joint concert to benefit Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama. Obama plans to attend the concert at the Hammerstein Ballroom in New York City on Oct. 16, the day after Obama's final debate with Republican John McCain at Hofstra University, located several miles outside the city in Hempstead, N.Y. Seeing the two superstars together won't come cheap. Tickets start at $500 and range up to $10,000. The event was first reported by the Huffington Post Web site and confirmed by an Obama aide.

RENO, NV – In a sweeping speech here in this battleground state, Barack Obama made a direct appeal to the American people and to members of Congress to support the $700 billion rescue plan that the House of Representatives yesterday obstructed.

It was the first time since the need for such a rescue became clear that the Democratic nominee explained in direct and explicit terms what a total collapse of the credit markets would mean for ordinary people, many of whom are fiercely opposed to the bailout bill.

Quoting Franklin D. Roosevelt, Obama called on Americans to show the “confidence and courage” that he said were essential to the success of the plan. He asked people to believe in the country even if they are angry or anxious about the current crisis, and he tied the rescue plan to his own agenda, saying it would not be the end of what we do to strengthen this economy, but the beginning while spelling out his plans to cut taxes, make health care and college more affordable and promote clean energy, including clean coal.

Obama said this was no longer just a Wall Street crisis, but an American crisis and that failure to pass a rescue plan could mean thousands of businesses could close around the country, million of jobs could be lost and a long and painful recession could follow.

”Because of the housing crisis -- and nobody’s been hit harder by foreclosures in the housing crisis than Nevada -- we are now in a very dangerous situation where financial institutions across this country are afraid to lend money,” he told the crowd gathered on a lawn at the University of Nevada at Reno. “If all that meant was the failure of a few big banks on Wall Street, that’d be one thing. But that’s not what it means. What it means is that if we do not act, it will be harder for you to get a mortgage for your home or the loans you need to go to college or the loan you need to buy a car to get to work. What it means is that businesses won’t be able to get loans they need to open new factories, or hire more workers, or make payroll for the workers they have.”

Obama has shown a new energy over the past two days when it comes to speaking about the financial crisis on the stump. Throughout his roughly 35-minute speech today, he used analogies and humor to try to explain to the audience the predicament facing the American economy and how it related to them. He told college students that even though they may not have big stock market portfolios, failure to stop this credit crisis would make it harder for them to get a job, buy a house and raise a family.

DES MOINES, IA - After making the rounds of the morning cable news shows, John McCain today reiterated his call for immediate action to pass a bailout bill.

"Inaction is not an option," McCain said during an economic roundtable here this morning. "In light of the House's failure to act, this morning, I spoke to the president about two things that the administration has not done, but should do following the inaction of Congress."

In addition to raising the deposit insurance cap from $100,000 to $250,000 - something McCain and Barack Obama have suggested - McCain called on the Treasury to use its Exchange Stabilization Fund as "creatively as possible to provide backstop" for financial accounts. He also pointed to the authority granted to the government in the recent housing bill to purchase nearly $1T in mortgages and mortgage-backed securities as a short-term solution until a bill can be successfully navigated through Congress.

"The Administration can take these actions with the stroke of a pen to help alleviate the crisis gripping our economy," McCain said. "I urge them to do so."

McCain told several-hundred local employees gathered at EFCO Forms that this was not the time to place blame.

"This may be and is the greatest financial crisis of our lives," McCain said. "And we have to act, and we have to act together in a bipartisan fashion. I'm committed to that. And I'm committed to doing whatever is necessary in a bipartisan fashion, and there'll be plenty of time to point the finger of blame. There'll be plenty of time and I'll be glad to talk about some of that blame."

Although he has consistently criticized Obama for his ties to the housing industry, today McCain pointed to the 'cozy' relationship that executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had with politicians without mentioning the name of his opponent. While the RNC did release a television ad today tying Obama to the current financial crisis, McCain said that this is a time for restoring confidence, not name-calling.

"One of the reasons why Congress failed to act effectively was because it hasn't really sunk in that the people who are hurting, and are being hurt, are Main Street, families, small businesses, those kinds of people that are the engine of our economy," McCain said. "Families being able to stay in their homes, or purchase a new home, or new automobiles, small businesses that function on a steady line of credit are now seeing that dry up. And there is a perception out there that this is just something for Wall Street. I don't want to give anything to Wall Street."

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) issued a statement this afternoon that reflects one possible point of agreement between the parties about an add on to the bailout plan that tanked yesterday:

“The presidential candidates’ support for increasing the FDIC cap is welcome news. Increasing the FDIC cap is a proposal put on the table by Roy Blunt and House Republicans but ruled out by Democrats during the negotiations that led to yesterday’s unsuccessful vote.”

John McCain and Barack Obama have agreed to push a proposal to raise the FDIC cap to $250K from $100K.

In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Barack Obama/Joe Biden lead John McCain/Sarah Palin 47-41%. In the previous release, Obama/Biden led 47-42%.

The Dem ticket holds a double-digit lead in battlegrounds states. Among RVs in CO, MI, NH, NM, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI and NV, the IL Sen. leads 50-40%. One week ago, in the survey completed 9/22, he led 45-42%.

Enthusiasm for the Dem ticket continues to outpace enthusiasm for McCain/Palin. More than two-thirds, 68%, of Obama voters are enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 46% of McCain voters say the same. A week ago, that 22% gap was just 7% -- 58% were enthusiastic for Obama and 51% were enthusiastic for McCain.

Today's poll, conducted 9/27-29 by FD, surveyed 901 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Oh, the chutzpah! John McCain's camp is releasing a new TV spot that uses Bill Clinton to criticize the Dems -- and by extension the Dem nom -- for failing to regulate Fannie and Freddie.

Narrator: Bill Clinton knows who is responsible.

Clinton: "I think the responsibility that the Democrats have may rest more in resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress or by me when I was President to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

Ad, which will (allegedly) run nationally, says that McCain fought to rein in the mortgage giants.

During Friday night’s presidential debate, CBS and Nielsen captured real-time reactions to the candidates’ performance. As they watched the debate, a panel of 44 members turned a dial to indicate their approval or disapproval of the candidates’ comments. The panel and its results are not part of CBS’s election polling, and the panel is not large enough to be statistically significant according to Nielsen’s standards.

Nevertheless, Nielsen concludes that this tool does provide some interesting insights:

-- Barack Obama’s discussion of oil independence and health, at roughly 26 minutes into the debate, drew the overall most positive response from the CBS/Nielsen panel.

-- Obama’s lowest response came during his discussion of investing in the American dream.

-- In contrast, 92 minutes into the debate, John McCain’s closing comments summarizing his qualifications for the presidency and his plans for keeping the U.S. safe drew some of the least positive responses from the respondents.

-- McCain’s high point came just minutes earlier when discussing the importance of success in Iraq.

-- The candidates’ contentious exchange on energy policy (at 83 minutes) also drew negative responses from the CBS/Nielsen panel.

Also, ICYMI, the overall number of people who watched the debate was 52.4M, well below the 62.5M who watched the first debate between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry four years ago.

In the wake of the House's failure yesterday to pass the $700B bailout bill, both presidential candidates reached out to President Bush this morning to discuss next steps.

From Barack Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones:

"Senator Obama called President Bush this morning. They spoke about the need to push for a package that Congress can agree on. Senator Obama specifically brought up his proposal to increase the amount of money that is federally insured in order to more fully protect small businesses and families concerned about their savings, believing that such a proposal can broaden the coalition supporting the package."

And, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy, John McCain read this statement a few moments ago in Des Moines:

"In light of the House’s failure to act, this morning, I spoke to the President about two things that the administration has not done, but should do following the inaction of Congress: First, the Treasury has already used its Exchange Stabilization Fund to back money market accounts. I encourage it to use it this fund as creatively as possible to provide backstop for accounts across our financial system to maintain confidence on the part of savers and investors. And second, the recent housing bill gave the government nearly $1 trillion in authority to purchase mortgages. Housing and mortgages are at the root of this crisis. I encourage Treasury to take action to shore up mortgage values. The Administration can take these actions with the stroke of the pen to help alleviate the crisis gripping our economy. I urge them to do so. Also, the FDIC should quickly be granted the authority to increase the deposit insurance cap from $100,000 to $250,000 so that families do not have to worry about their money. We cannot allow a crisis in our financial system to become a crisis in confidence."

The AFL-CIO continues its quest to woo union members to the Democratic ticket, launching a new mailer that highlights the GOP nom's plan to tax employer-based health care. The piece will be sent to more than 1M swing voters in CO, VA, MI, OH, PA, WI and FL.

Union worker Dave Fecke is pictured and quoted in the mailer: “The difference between me and McCain? McCain’s rich... he’s never had to sit at a bargaining table and choose between a $0.50 an hour raise and decent health care benefits. He doesn’t get it.”

Click here to view mailer.

The RNC has a new spot out today alleging that Barack Obama will spend an additional $1T to bailout the U.S. economy. The ad will run in WI, OH, MI, PA, VA and IN.

Narrator: "Who pays? You do. New taxes. New spending. New debt. Barack Obama’s plan: It will make the problem worse."

The ad sparked outrage from Team Obama, who sent oppo to reporters emphasizing John McCain's longtime support for the type of deregulation that led to the current economic crisis.

“For John McCain’s party to demagogue a rescue plan that he supports in order to score cheap political points is not only dishonest and dishonorable, it is the height of irresponsibility on a day when we urgently need to pass that plan to prevent an economic catastrophe. So much for country first,” said Bill Burton, a spokesman for Obama's campaign.

New Barack Obama TV ad running in select states features the IL senator outlining his plan for economic relief for the nation:

"On taxes, John McCain and I have very different ideas. Instead of giving hundreds of billions in new tax breaks to big corporations and oil companies, I'll cut taxes for small and startup businesses that are the backbone of our economy. Instead of more tax breaks for corporations that outsource American jobs, I'll give them to companies who create jobs here. Instead of extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest -- I'll focus on you. My plan offers three times as much tax relief to the middle class as Senator McCain's. If you make less than a quarter million a year, you won’t see your taxes raised one penny under my plan."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

The House's rejection of the bailout bill dominated last night's news coverage.

Newt Gingrich, on a possible reason the bill failed: "The Republicans in the House are the most conservative element in Washington. And they were firmly opposed to the bill, and nobody was paying any attention to them because they thought they could run over them. When Republican leader John Boehner went down to the White House with Senator [John] McCain and they went around the room, everybody else had cut the deal. Everybody else was in on the fix. They got to Boehner, and he said, We can't go along with it, the House Republicans. And McCain said essentially, I'm with Boehner."

More: "There was a long, painful, hard negotiation. And the fact is that they dramatically improved the bill. I said this morning if I had been in the Congress, I would have hated it, it makes me very angry, but I would have voted yes. And I said that because I watched Congressman Roy Blunt and Congressman John Boehner and Congressman [Eric] Cantor and Paul Ryan really improve the bill significantly. It was still not a good bill, but it was dramatically better. That would not have happened without John McCain's involvement" ("On the Record," FNC, 9/29).

NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd, on whether politics played a role in how House members voted: "If you slice this with members of Congress who have been in tough election fights in the last six years vs. members who hadn't been in a while, the members who has been in a tougher reelection fight or in one now, they voted no. Anybody who hadn't been in a tough political fight in a long time, they voted yes. It was clearly a political vote for these guys. They know the election is coming in four weeks and they are very, very nervous about being for this thing" ("Nightly News," NBC, 9/29).

Politico's Cummings, on possible reasons the bailout failed: "I think we had a combination of things going on. Ideology was a problem. This was totally against where some of the free-market Republicans would ever want to be. We had politics at play here. Many of these no votes came from members who are in tight races. And they are really going to need the base to come out. And I was hearing that their calls were like 99 percent to 1, you know. It was the local community bankers who were saying, 'Please do this, because we're next.' But otherwise it was very negative public response to this. And then, of course, we had some partisan petulance. I mean, it was sort of Washington at its worst. It was a really toxic mix" ("NewsHour," PBS, 9/29).

After the jump, more coverage on the bailout bill's failure, McCain and Palin's first joint interview and looking ahead to the 10/2 VP debate.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX)

House GOP leadership blamed Speaker Nancy Pelosi for the bailout bill going down today, saying her speech leading up to the vote was overly partisan.

“I think this is a case of a failure of Speaker Pelosi to listen … “ said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA).

The House Dem leadership, led by Pelosi, just took to the mics to say that when the White House and the administration identified a problem, they worked in a bipartisan way to craft legislation to help stabilize the markets. The GOP, they argued, should worry more about the financial health of the country than their own hurt feelings.

The bottom line, however, is that members voted their own re-election interests; the House leadership -- on both sides -- failed to deliver.

President Bush, with an outcome that further reinforces his lame duckness, held no sway over members.

And both presidential candidates appeared also to be politically impotent. Though it is John McCain, who as we know made a big show last week of suspending his campaign to help with negotiations, who must scrap to explain the outcome. When he left Washington Friday, he assured voters that a deal was imminent.

So, on the eve of the Jewish new year, when many members head home to be with family, what next?

"What happened today cannot stand," Pelosi said, nothing that her team believes the matter must be revisited. "... I hope that the markets will take that message."

And who suffers most with the failure of the bill?

No one looks good. Washington appears totally ineffective. And certainly there's much blame to go around. Today's result could amplify a 'clean house' mentality taking hold in some voter groups. And it's McCain, perhaps, who has the most to lose should that be Americans' ultimate takeaway.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

228-205

Check your member's vote here.

Note -- 95 Dem 'no' votes ...

In today's Diageo/Hotline poll, Barack Obama/Joe Biden lead John McCain/Sarah Palin 47-42%; the Dems have led by 5% in the last three surveys. They lead men for the second straight day and lead Inds by double digits for the fifth consecutive day.

Nearly two in three RVs, 63%, surveyed by the tracker this weekend watched Fri.'s debate. And 41% say Obama prevailed in Oxford, while 24% said McCain won the outing. One in five say they both won or performed equally. Among Inds, 28% say Obama won and 23% say McCain; one in three Inds say they tied.

Debate watchers also rate Obama's performance higher than McCain's. Two-thirds say Obama did an excellent or good job, while 53% believe McCain did the same. Meanwhile 30% say Obama did only fair or poor, while 44% say the same about McCain. Among Inds, Obama has a 58%/37% debate performance rating, while McCain's is 49%/46%.

Today's poll, conducted 9/26-28 by FD, surveyed 903 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

BEXLEY, OH - After suspending his campaign to return to Washington last week for negotiations about legislation to bailout the nation's floundering economy, John McCain was back on the campaign trail today criticizing his opponent for not responding to the financial crisis in a similar fashion.

"I went to Washington last week to make sure that the taxpayers of Ohio and across this great country were not left footing the bill for mistakes made in Wall Street and evil and greed in Washington," McCain said.

Despite his earlier claims that this crisis was not a situation to be politicized, McCain added: "It's a matter of record Senator Obama took a very different approach to the crisis our country faced. At first, at first he didn't want to get involved. And then he was "monitoring the situation." That's not leadership, that's watching from the sidelines."

Although McCain said that it wasn't his style to "simply phone it in," he spent roughly five hours on Capitol Hill last Thursday (including a meeting with Obama at the White House), and less than two hours there Friday before traveling to Mississippi for the first presidential debate of the general election. He then spent most of the day on Saturday making phone calls from his campaign headquarters in Virginia.

Mark Salter, one of McCain's closest advisors, told reporters over the weekend that the GOP nominee didn't need to be in Washington and could "effectively do what he needs to do by phone." Obama also visited his Senate office Thursday but traveled to Mississippi the next day to get ready for the debate. So, although McCain might have spent a few more hours in Washington than his opponent, he spent much of his suspended campaign at his headquarters.

Nay, 226 - Yea, 207 ...

CNN reports: Dow industrials fall more than 600 on fears bailout package vote will fail.

Spotted at the John McCain/Sarah Palin rally this morning at Capital University in Bexley, OH: "I'm 'bitterly clinging to guns and religion,' (and I'll keep the rest of the Constitution, too)." NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy sends the photos:

President Clinton will host 'Change We Need' events for Barack Obama Wednesday in Orlando and St. Lucie County. Clinton will remind Florida voters that the deadline to register to vote is October 6th. Further details to come.

For your information, here's the 110-page bailout plan, outlining a $700B government commitment -- dispersed in installments -- aimed at saving an economy in crisis. The NYT is reporting that both presidential candidates have offered "guarded" support for the proposal.

A House vote is expected shortly.

New John McCain radio spot running in CO, OH, PA and VA uses Joe Biden's misstatement last week that the Dem nominees for president and vice president do not support clean coal. The campaign since clarified Biden's remark to say that the Dems do indeed back clean coal. The ad, meanwhile, also mentions that "congressional liberals blocked off-shore drilling, putting special interests before our interests."

New Barack Obama TV ad running on national cable says he's fighting to prevent corporate execs from seizing golden parachutes on their way out the door. The spot mentions John McCain adviser Carly Fiorina, the former HP CEO who left her job with a $42M package.

Atlantic Media political dir. Ron Brownstein examines the the head-to-head polling match-up between the vice presidential candidates:

Sarah Palin has attracted more attention, but a recent series of Allstate/National Journal polls found that Joe Biden actually enjoys a better public image in more battleground states than the Alaska governor.

The Allstate/National Journal polls surveyed eight battleground states earlier this month: five won by President Bush in 2004 that are at the top of the target list for Democrat Barack Obama and three won by John Kerry in 2004 that are prime targets for Republican nominee John McCain. In each state, the poll asked registered voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Palin and Biden, the Delaware Senator.

As the two contenders approach their sole vice-presidential debate later this week, both are generally popular. In all eight states each registered a net favorable rating-that is, the share of voters who viewed them positively exceeded the share that viewed them unfavorably.

But in five of the eight states, Biden enjoyed a larger net favorable rating than Palin. Palin’s net favorable rating exceeded Biden’s in only three states. Each was a state that Bush carried last time: Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio. Biden had somewhat broader reach: his image was more favorable than Palin’s in two states that Bush carried-Florida and Virginia-and all three that Kerry carried: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Another angle also suggests that for now Biden may be effective over a broader terrain than Palin. Looking cumulatively at all five red states, there’s little difference in the two candidates’ net favorability rating: Palin’s favorable ratings exceed her unfavorable ratings by eighteen percentage points, and Biden’s net positive rating is 16 points. But in results from the three blue states combined, Palin’s net favorability rating is only 12 percentage points and Biden’s is almost twice as great at 21 points.

Here’s a look at the favorable and unfavorable ratings for the two vice presidential nominees in the eight states:

STATE BIDEN FAV-UNFAV (NET) PALIN FAV-UNFAV (NET)
COLORADO 47-32 (+15) 55-35 (+20)
FLORIDA 49-28 (+21) 46-31 (+15)
NEW MEXICO 45-31 (+14) 50-31 (+19)
OHIO 43-31 (+12) 49-30 (+19)
VIRGINIA 49-31 (+18) 49-33 (+16)
COMBINED 47-31 (+16) 50-32 (+18)

Source: Allstate/National Journal polls conducted by FD, September 11-15, 2008. Approximately 400 registered voters per state; margin of error plus or minus 4.9%.

MICHIGAN 43-22 (+21) 44-33 (+11)
NEW HAMPSHIRE 46-29 (+17) 45-38 (+7)
PENNSYLVANIA 49-24 (+25) 46-29 (+17)
COMBINED 46-25 (+21) 45-33 (+12)

Source: Allstate/national Journal polls conducted by FD, September 18-22, 2008. Approximately 400 registered voters per state; margin of error plus or minus 4.9%

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Barack Obama and Joe Biden lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 47-42%. Previously, Obama/Biden led 48-43%.

McCain now has a net unfavorable rating among Inds. Just 43% have a favorable impression of the GOP nominee, while 46% have an unfavorable impression. One week ago -- in the survey completed 9/20 -- his fav/unfav among Inds was 51%/36%.

And the AZ Sen.'s trouble with Inds extends to the WH matchup. Obama leads the group, which makes up 19% of today's Diageo/Hotline sample, by a commanding 52-29% margin. One week ago, McCain held a 40-39% advantage.

Once again -- new records to report in today's release. Only 9% of RVs think the U.S. is headed in the right direction, while 61% now believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S.

Today's poll, conducted 9/25-27 by FD, surveyed 905 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Barack Obama/Joe Biden lead John McCain/Sarah Palin 48-43%. Yesterday, Obama/Biden led 49-42%.

The Dem ticket now holds a commanding 26% lead among Inds, up from their record 22% advantage in the previous release and 2% deficit one week ago.

Meanwhile just half as many RVs say the U.S. is headed in the right direction as did in the initial Diageo/Hotline tracking survey. Only 10% say right track today vs. 20% on 9/7.

And foreign policy debate or not, the economy remains the hot topic. Three in five RVs now say the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S., up from 39% two weeks ago. At the same time, 46% favor Obama on handling of the economy and 35% say McCain.

Today's poll, conducted 9/24-26 by FD, surveyed 914 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

For fence-sitters out there, this evening's presidential debate presented a choice between two very different characters, pushing two very different messages.

John McCain apparently went into the debate with one paramount goal -- to convey to viewers that there is much Barack Obama doesn't know about ... fill ... in ... the ... blank.

"What Sen. Obama doesn't understand ..." led off many of the Republican's sentences. He used the word naïveté to describe his rival, saying at another point: "There are some advantages to experience and knowledge and judgment, and I don’t believe that Sen. Obama has the knowledge and experience and has made the wrong judgment in a number of areas."

"Sen. Obama still doesn't understand or just doesn't quite get" that failure in Iraq would fuel al Qaeda, McCain said.

"You don’t do that, you don’t say that out loud," McCain admonished his Democratic rival, saying Obama should never threaten to cut off aid to Pakistan.

"I don’t think that Sen. Obama understands that there was a failed state in Pakistan," he said later.

So if the McCain folks have their way, undecideds will hear McCain's pitch tonight for his experience and heed his caution that Obama isn't ready to be president.

In an otherwise solid performance in which McCain ably touted his record in breaking with his party on immigration and torture, his service to country and his reputation for limiting spending, there was an edge, though, an aggressiveness to McCain's voice and approach. He appeared never to meet Obama's eye, even when speaking to him, and despite moderator Jim Lehrer's early attempts to get the candidates to address each other:

"I am just determined to get you all to talk to each other," Lehrer implored.

Obama did just that, repeatedly speaking to "John," as he addressed the Republican nominee. Obama repeatedly said McCain was "right" on a range of issues, from detainee policy at Guantanamo Bay to torture. He praised him whenever possible, despite the chill emanating from across the dais.

His message? Maturity, decency, bipartisanship. A new way of treating adversaries.

"We are less respected now than we were eight years ago or even four years ago," Obama advised.

McCain hit Obama hard for seeking earmarks for his home state and only abandoning the popular practice of securing government pork for pet projects at home once he launched his presidential bid. He chastised Obama for not supporting the surge and tried at one point, though Obama pushed back, to say that the Democrat voted against funding for the troops. McCain hammered Obama for proposing what he said was $800B in new government spending and for his willingness to hand the nation's health care system to the federal government to manage.

"I want to cut spending," McCain said. "I want to keep taxes low."

Obama said President Bush and McCain took the nation to war in Iraq instead of turning attention to Afghanistan to capture Osama bin Laden and root out his terrorist network.

"Sen. McCain and President Bush had a different judgement," Obama said. "I wish I had been wrong, for the sake of the country, and they had been right."

Obama criticized McCain for voting with the president 90 percent of the time, noting that it's the Bush administration that has presided over an "orgy of spending." McCain, Obama noted, voted for every one of the president's budgets.

No new substantive ground was broken tonight, but perhaps voters saw the candidates at their most authentic. McCain, bruising for a fight, knowing that he's had a lousy, flailing week, and that he needed a strong showing. Resilient. The fighter he is.

"I don’t think I need any on the job training," McCain said. "I’m ready to go with it, right now."

Obama stood strong by his Democratic beliefs that government at its best helps folks in the middle make ends meet, get an education, hold onto their jobs. He showed that even as McCain took it to him, he would not be cowed. He gave the most firm answer of the contest on a matter that was a favorite Hillary Clinton hit and that dogged him through the primaries -- if he said he would meet with leaders of rogue nations without preconditions.

"I reserve the right as President of the United States to meet with anybody, at the time and place of my choosing, if it guarantees the security and safety" of the nation, he said.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Hillary Clinton issued the following statement responding to tonight’s presidential debate:

“Tonight Barack Obama displayed beyond a doubt that he understands both the gravity of the financial crisis facing America, and the challenges we face in Iraq and around the world. Senator McCain offered only more of the same failed policies of the Bush Administration. America deserves better.

“I stood next to Barack Obama in 22 debates and tonight epitomized why millions are joining me in standing with him and working hard to ensure he is the next President of the United States.”

The office of Senator Edward M. Kennedy tonight released the following statement tonight: “Senator Kennedy experienced a mild seizure at home in Hyannis Port today and was taken to Cape Cod Hospital for examination. Doctors believe the incident was triggered by a change in medication. Senator Kennedy will return home tonight and looks forward to watching the debate.”

AP: Sen. Ted Kennedy is at Cape Cod Hospital in Massachusetts, staff members confirmed Friday evening. Cause unclear at this time.

The first presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama in Oxford, MS, this evening couldn't have come at a more pivotal or confusing time in the history of the nation.

The country's economy is on the brink of such precipitous decline that lawmakers are scrambling furiously to forge a legislative compromise that could commit as much as $700B to a government bailout. Meanwhile, the Iraq war continues more than five years after it began, and the war on terror remains the prominent focus of U.S. foreign policy. The nation is no closer to providing health care for 47M uninsured Americans. The auto industry has incurred massive job losses, and American car companies are trailing competitors around the globe in devising new green technologies. Gas prices have spiked past $4/gallon. Temperatures are rising. And, more worrisome perhaps than all of the above, is the notion that Paris Hilton successfully injected herself into the nation's political conversation.

Are you gloomy yet? Who could possibly want to tackle these massive challenges -- or, better yet, who could possibly have answers to these daunting problems? Well, of course, Obama and McCain think their respective plans fit the bill, for the times, for our struggles.

So far the choice between them has been outlined, somewhat simply, as change versus experience. Do you want more of the same? Would you take a leap of faith to back a relative political novice?

With 38 days to go until voters head to the polls and despite the intensity of this long race, both candidates come into the night's face-off with many of the same goals that they've held throughout the 18-month contest. After a week of political maneuvering that looked scattered at best, McCain must convince voters that he's still the earnest maverick they met in 2000 and that, let's say it, at 72, he's vigorous enough to run the nation during such complicated and difficult times. Obama, meanwhile, must connect with Middle America. He must reassure voters in the heartland that he shares their values and understands their plight. He must, maybe even directly, address the race issue.

In short, Obama's mission is biographical; McCain's is substantive. The Republican has to differentiate himself from President Bush.

Though foreign policy is the focus of the debate -- a subject that provides McCain with an advantage -- the economy is expected to get ample airtime, and both candidates must exhibit a fluency on the markets that neither has shown to date.

Questions to consider while watching the candidates:

Obama

Can he throw a punch? Ditch the professorial demeanor? Will he show passion and compassion? Public emotion seems to elude the Democratic nominee, but he wants to govern during very personally trying times for millions of Americans. How does he strive to connect with voters? Does he paint McCain as positively Bushesque? Will he effectively defend his opposition to the surge?

McCain

Can he explain the shenanigans of the last week? Suspended campaign or not? Participating in bailout negotiations or not? Does he ably defend the Sarah Palin pick? Does he emphasize his support for the surge in a way that modifies Obama's inevitable knock against the GOPer for his early endorsement of the Iraq war? Does he use the word arugula? Can he paint Obama as a lightweight? Does he revisit the celebrity thematics in a way that doesn't appear bitter, envious, overly pointed? Ok, again, let's just say it, can he keep his temper in check?

Conventional wisdom is that, given his slip in several national polls and puzzling move at first to bypass the debate to work on the bailout, McCain's on the hot seat. But Obama still has much work to do to convince voters in key battleground states, where the polls remain tight, that he has the skills and knowledge to run the country. Doubters remain.

I'll be watching and blogging. Send your thoughts and reactions.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Rep. Roy Blunt said today that John McCain stopped the bailout deal.

A clip circulated by Team Obama with comment from spokesman Bill Burton: “Congressman Blunt just confirmed what’s been clear since John McCain rode into Washington at the eleventh hour – Senator McCain’s political theatrics succeeded only in stopping a bipartisan deal. During the most serious economic crisis of our time, we don’t need erratic posturing, we need steady leadership to protect American taxpayers and put our economy back on track."

With 74 new matchups released this week in 37 different states, Barack Obama leads the Hotline's Electoral College projection with 293 EVs to John McCain's 230 EVs; 15 EVs are toss-up. Previously, Obama led 264 EVs to 219 EVs, while 55 EVs were toss-up.

Obama leads among solid EVs 179 to 149, as well as among lean EVs, 114 to 81. A week ago, Obama led 169 to 134 among solid EVs and 95 to 76 among lean EVs. This week's 15 toss-up EVs hail from NC, which had previously been lean McCain. The one NC poll released this week -- conducted by GOP pollster Tel Opinion Research -- showed the candidates tied, 45-45%.

Last week's toss-up states -- FL, IA and PA -- were three of the most surveyed states this week. FL had four new polls and is now lean McCain. Meanwhile IA had three new polls and is now solid Obama. PA (as well as NH) had six, and is now lean Obama. The most surveyed state this week, however, was MI with 10 new samples; MI now rests as lean Obama.

The Hotline has now published WH '08 matchups from all 51 Electoral College states and eliminated WH '00/WH '04 projections. As always, the chart (available after the jump) includes all state polling data published in the Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

Barack Obama/Joe Biden took their largest lead in the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll yet; the Dems now lead John McCain/Sarah Palin 49-42%. Previously, they led 47-43% in yesterday's release.

In addition to marking their largest overall advantage, Obama/Biden more than doubled their lead among Inds to a record 22%. On 9/24, they led Inds by 10%; as recently as 9/22, they led them by just 3%.

The Dem ticket also took their first lead among men since 9/16 and have now led women by double-digits in five consecutive surveys.

A record 60% of RVs now feel the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S., while just 10% believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction.

Today's survey, conducted 9/23-25 by FD, surveyed 913 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Bill Clinton. Tom Brokaw will moderate a debate between CO SEN candidates Mark Udall (D) and Bob Schaffer (R) as part of the "Senate Debate Series."

Face the Nation hosts Barack Obama.

This Week hosts John McCain.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and John Kerry (D-MA). The "Power Player" is Nat'l Museum of Natural History dir./Dr. Cristian Samper.

Late Edition hosts Pakistani Pres. Asif Ali Zardari, New York Times' Thomas Friedman, CNN's Gloria Borger, CNN's John King, CNN's Jeffrey Toobin, GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, Dem strategist Hilary Rosen, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez and Dem strategist Donna Brazile.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

As lawmakers grapple with how to pull the nation from the brink of economic disaster, it seems President Bush has committed to appear at a fundraiser for Rep. Kenny Hulshof, the Republicans' candidate for governor in Missouri.

Seems a mighty strange time for the president to plan a political event, no? Or, for that matter, for a congressman to be anywhere but Washington.

White House spokesman Carlton Carroll would not say if Bush will attend or if he is canceling all political events for the short term, in light of the country's economic crisis.

"We have not announced what the president's doing, so I can't say anything," Carroll said.

Tickets for the Hulshof event cost $25K for a private reception and photo, and $2K to attend a cocktail reception and dinner with the candidate. Hulshof is ensconced in a tough battle against state Attorney General Jay Nixon, the Democratic contender.

Here's the invite, obtained exclusively by Hotline On Call:

After the jump, check out the dinner chairs and co-chairs.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

House Republican Leader John Boehner just dispatched a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying that if the House GOP's considerations are not included in a final bill, a large coalition of GOPers will be forced to oppose it:

"Madam Speaker, we owe it to all those with a stake in this process to continue our discussions until we arrive at an agreement that is acceptable on both sides of the aisle – and more importantly, one that serves the interests of American taxpayers. That is why I ask you and your Democratic colleagues to give the House Republican working group’s proposals serious consideration as this process moves forward. If such consideration is not given, a large majority of Republicans cannot – and will not – support Sec. Paulson’s plan."

A statement from the GOP nom's campaign on his decision to face off against Barack Obama tonight in Oxford, MS, for the first presidential debate of the general election:

"John McCain's decision to suspend his campaign was made in the hopes that politics could be set aside to address our economic crisis.

"In response, Americans saw a familiar spectacle in Washington. At a moment of crisis that threatened the economic security of American families, Washington played the blame game rather than work together to find a solution that would avert a collapse of financial markets without squandering hundreds of billions of taxpayers' money to bailout bankers and brokers who bet their fortunes on unsafe lending practices.

"Both parties in both houses of Congress and the administration needed to come together to find a solution that would deserve the trust of the American people. And while there were attempts to do that, much of yesterday was spent fighting over who would get the credit for a deal and who would get the blame for failure. There was no deal or offer yesterday that had a majority of support in Congress. There was no deal yesterday that included adequate protections for the taxpayers. It is not enough to cut deals behind closed doors and then try to force it on the rest of Congress -- especially when it amounts to thousands of dollars for every American family.

"The difference between Barack Obama and John McCain was apparent during the White House meeting yesterday where Barack Obama's priority was political posturing in his opening monologue defending the package as it stands. John McCain listened to all sides so he could help focus the debate on finding a bipartisan resolution that is in the interest of taxpayers and homeowners. The Democratic interests stood together in opposition to an agreement that would accommodate additional taxpayer protections.

"Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

John McCain and Barack Obama made the TV rounds last night to discuss the bailout plan and tonight's debate. First up, McCain:

McCain, asked what's the hang up on the bailout plan: "Well, members have concerns about ... an expenditure of $700 billion of taxpayers money. This is the biggest thing of its kind obviously in history. They have legitimate concerns, some of those have already been satisfied such as accountability and oversight board, CEO executive pay. A number of issues have already been resolved and I'm hopeful we get them resolved and get going and get this thing done."

ABC's Gibson: "It would seem that most of the conditions that you wanted put into the bill were done so, it was so. They're in there, so what is it that is holding up agreement from the House Republicans?"

McCain: "Well, they have had various concerns, including a provision for insurance in there, including additional home loan mortgage guarantees. There are a variety of concerns, I think a lot of them have been satisfied. ... They are aware of the urgency. They are also aware of their responsibilities to the taxpayers."

More after the jump, including the second part of CBS' interview with Palin.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

A statement issued a few moments ago from John McCain's campaign, per Kimmie Lipscomb:

"Senator McCain will remain in DC tonight as he continues to take action in brokering a deal that will address the crisis as well as protect the taxpayer. No further travel plans have been made at this point."

Just hours after Sen. John McCain made a surprise announcement Wednesday that he was temporarily suspending his presidential campaign to help work out a bipartisan deal in Congress on the financial crisis, his campaign manager Rick Davis dined with about a dozen top New York-based fundraisers at the chic 21 Club in Manhattan.

The dinner meeting, according to an attendee, included an update on McCain’s decision to return to Washington today, criticism of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. for failing to act more decisively earlier, and calls for more fundraising for the party by leading New York money harvesters.

The event was hosted by one of the GOP’s top fundraisers Woody Johnson IV, who heads the Johnson Cos. and has raised more than $500,000 for the McCain campaign.

The dinner also drew Lewis Eisenberg, the finance chairman of the Republican National Committee who leads McCain-Palin Victory 2008, a joint fundraising effort by the RNC and a legal account of the McCain campaign; Donald Marron, the chairman and chief executive of Lightyear Capital, a private equity fund; and Patrick Durkin, a managing director of J. Fitzgibbons, a private equity firm.

Even though campaign officials were temporarily told to suspend their fundraising and other activities per McCain’s instructions, Johnson told the assembled guests that they “ought to redouble their efforts” to make sure that an upcoming fundraiser in New York on Oct 14 is a success, according to the attendee.

A regular Hotline On Call feature highlighting local coverage of the presidential candidates on the stump. Today, we take a look at react in MS to word that the first presidential debate of the general election, scheduled to be held tomorrow night at Ole Miss, could be postponed, or worse, cancelled.

EVENT: Waiting For The First Presidential Debate
Oxford, MS
Who They're Waiting For: John McCain, Barack Obama

Media reports from Oxford, MS, suggests a local population that, on the whole, wasn't too thrilled about yesterday's late-afternoon news that the presidential debate could be in jeopardy; McCain has said no bailout agreement, no debate. Oxford mayor Richard Howorth told one local TV station that the debate was the biggest thing to happen in the town since the premier of hometown boy Faulkner's Intruder In The Dust 58 years ago.

WPTY-TV on the view from Oxford:

Reporter Dana Rebik:

"A lot of nervous people here - a lot of money and a lot of preparation has gone into hopefully what's to come on Friday. ... If this debate is postponed it will be a major dissapointment."

Coley Thompson, Ole Miss student/"employee at the busiest BBQ place in town": "There was so much financially put into this as well as physically and, I guess, emotionally. The anticipation two days before, you know it's like for the whole town a big sigh was let out ... [In the restaurant,] you know, we've got stuff premade and ready to go for the big weekend."

Rebik: "Restaurants, shops and hotels are expecting more than 100,000 people, many arriving [9/24]. Talk about a financial hit - we've been told over $5 million has been spent in planning this event."

Oxford, MS Tourism Director Kappi Allen: "It's a huge financial investment, and it would be a huge financial hurt and loss if it weren't able to happen. I don't know how the university or Oxford as a whole would be able to handle a postponement" (9/24).

The news hit the the Ole Miss campus hard. From the student paper, the Daily Mississippian:

Barack Obama and Joe Biden lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 47-43% in the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll out this a.m. Previously, Obama/Biden led 48-42% on 9/23 and 47-43% on 9/22.

In today's release, Obama/Biden lead Dems 87-7% and Inds 43-33%, while McCain/Palin lead GOPers 90-6%. The GOP ticket also leads men 47-43%, while Obama/Biden again lead women 51-39%.

The proportion of RVs who believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction hit another all-time low -- just 11%. And once again, a record number of people believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S., 58%.

Today's survey, conducted 9/22-24 by FD, surveyed 912 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

This week's poll examines the race in three states that John Kerry won in 2004 but that John McCain is targeting this cycle: MI, NH and PA. Our survey shows that Barack Obama has a slight edge in each state.

MI
Obama, 47%, McCain, 39%

NH
Obama, 44%, McCain, 43%

PA
Obama, 43%, McCain, 41%

Read on for the poll. National Journal's Jim Barnes takes a closer look at the numbers. Will post that story shortly.

GREENSBURG, PA - Joe Biden said this morning that John McCain would not inspire the confidence of the nation at a time of economic crisis, while at the same time he praised Barack Obama for seeking a bipartisan approach to negotiations on a bailout package.

Referring to McCain's "epiphany" on the state of the economy last week, first saying the fundamentals were sound and then saying there was a crisis, Biden said you cannot lead the nation when you "lurch so rapidly from one fundamental position to another."

"Ladies and gentlemen, you can't gain the confidence of the nation and you can't gain the confidence of the world when in fact you are not rooted and know exactly what you think," he said.

Great presidents have shown that kind of consistent leadership, Biden argued, the kind of leadership he said Obama showed by reaching out to McCain yesterday.

NEW YORK - Sarah Palin made an unscheduled stop today to Ground Zero and the World Trade Center memorials, where she told reporters during her first impromptu question-and-answer session that she agreed with President Bush's decision to fight terrorism through military action.

"I agree with the Bush administration that we take the fight to them," she said outside the firehouse when asked if she would have conducted the war on terrorism differently. "We never again let them come onto our soil and try to destroy not only our democracy, but communities like the community of New York. Never again."

It was her first press availability in the four weeks since she was named John McCain's running mate. Palin and the McCain campaign have garnered some critical press in recent days for shielding the vice presidential candidate from the media during her visits with world leaders in New York.

Palin toured the Tribune WTC Visitor Center and was moved by the pictures and films on display, according to a pool report. She then visited a bronze wall honoring firefighters killed on 9/11 and spoke with local firefighters at Ladder Company 10, Engine Co. 10, which faces Ground Zero. She also went to the family viewing area, led by Lee Ielpi, president of the board of directors of the September 11th Families Association.

"I wish every American would come through here," Palin said. "I wish every world leader would come through here, and understand what it is that took place here and more importantly how America came together and united to commit to never allowing this to happen again."

Sarah Palin's Ground Zero Q and A -- per CNN's Peter Hamby -- is available after the jump.

Sarah Silverman wants all you Jewish kiddos out there to convince your nanas and papas, especially those living in the Sunshine State, to vote for Barack Obama.

The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

Video has surfaced showing Sarah Palin being blessed by a Kenyon pastor -- Bishop Thomas Muthee -- who asks that she be protected from "witchcraft" as she seeks higher office.

"Come on, talk to God about this woman. We declare, save her from Satan," Muthee said, as Palin stands, palms open, head bowed. "Make her way my God. Bring finances her way even for the campaign in the name of Jesus. ... Use her to turn this nation the other way around."

Given the all-consuming urgency of the nation's financial stability, and the political and policy implications for both presidential candidates, the vid seems to be getting little play. But, something to ponder, could it put the Rev. Jeremiah Wright stuff to bed? Or at least dampen its impact in the homestretch? After all, this grainy vid would make a TV fine ad, too: Worried about witchcraft? A heartbeat from the presidency?

New 60-second Barack Obama spot running in "targeted states."

The candidate speaks directly to camera: "For eight years we’ve been told that the way to a stronger economy was to give huge tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest. Cut oversight on Wall Street. And somehow all Americans would benefit. Well now we know the truth. Instead of prosperity trickling down, pain has trickled up. We need to change direction. Now. I’m Barack Obama. Here’s what I’ll do as president: End the Wall Street free for all with commonsense safeguards that put homeowners and struggling families first -- not corporate greed and CEO bonuses. Jumpstart our economy with a middle class tax cut, paid for by closing special interest group loopholes. Get serious about energy independence. A ten-year mission to create millions of good paying jobs by investing in made-in-America energy and infrastructure. You can read my whole plan to rebuild our economy on our website, Barackobama.com. It’s time to get our economy back on track and put the middle class first again. And that’s why I approve this message."

And neither candidate would be fool enough to miss it. After the jump, the prepared remarks of both candidates, who addressed the forum this morning.

John McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and ask that the 9/26 debate be delayed was the hot topic last night. CBS' Katie Couric asked McCain about it in a sit-down interview.

Couric: "Political observers say whoever gets out front on this issue will benefit the most in November. Was this an effort to do that? And was this at all, senator, politically motivated?"

McCain: "Well, I don't think at this time that we can worry much about politics. I just, I think the American people expect more of us, and I would hope that we would respond that way. Senator [Barack] Obama called this morning. I called him back. We discussed that we do agree, and I'd be glad to join in a common press release or statement. But now is not the time for statements. Time is now to act."

McCain, asked if he suggested to Obama suspending both campaigns: "Yes. Sure. ... I think he has to consider it. I don't know if he had considered it or not, but I did tell him that I thought we both ought to do that. On the subject of delaying the debates, we got 41 days left in this campaign. We could move it up a few days because we know we have to act."

Much more after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

The last time President Bush asked the nation -- and Congress -- for a blank check it was in the run up to a war we would later learn was premised on faulty intelligence. Bookending his time in office, the president now asks for another massive financial commitment from the American public, $700B, without specifics and summoned hastily. The difference in this case, of course, is that the public has been warned by some of the greatest economic minds that dire consequences loom should the government do nothing.

But just as the cost and duration of the Iraq war were understated, there's no guarantee in this case that the legislation drafted by lawmakers this week will do the trick. We don't know as well if the $700B request is adequate -- or merely the downpayment on a longer, more expensive and undefined commitment for the future. We are told today that the payback for this endeavor will help to cover the cost. Weren't we told the same as a justification for the Iraq war, that the region's oil would ultimately foot the bill?

Bush ran for president as a champion of less regulation, less government spending. And he will have presided over the two largest commitments of taxpayer dollars in modern American history, the latter requiring an unprecedented expansion of government powers.

"It is difficult to pass a bill that commits so much of the taxpayers hard-earned money," Bush said tonight in a televised address from the White House. "... Given the situation we are facing, not passing a bill now will cost these Americans much more later."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Released a few moments ago ... a joint statement of Barack Obama and John McCain:

“The American people are facing a moment of economic crisis. No matter how this began, we all have a responsibility to work through it and restore confidence in our economy. The jobs, savings, and prosperity of the American people are at stake.

"This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. Now is our chance to come together to prove that Washington is once again capable of leading this country.”

Speaking for himself, Obama outlined the following principles that he calls on Senator McCain to support:

I believe that several core principles should guide this legislation.

This is a time to rise above politics for the good of the country. We cannot risk an economic catastrophe. This is not a Democratic problem or a Republican problem – this is an American problem. Now, we must find an American solution.

President Bush has called both presidential candidates and House and Senate leaders to the White House tomorrow in an effort to find consensus on the bailout plan.

A statement from Barack Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton:

“A few moments ago, President Bush called Senator Obama and asked him to attend a meeting in Washington tomorrow, which he agreed to do. Senator Obama has been working all week with leaders in Congress, Secretary Paulsen, and Chairman Bernanke to improve this proposal, and he has said that he will continue to work in a bipartisan spirit and do whatever is necessary to come up with a final solution. He strongly believes the debate should go forward on Friday so that the American people can hear from their next President about how he will lead America forward at this defining moment for our country."

The full statement from the Commission on Presidential Debates:

"The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) is moving forward with its plan for the first presidential debate at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss. this Friday, September 26. The plans for this forum have been underway for more than a year and a half. The CPD's mission is to provide a forum in which the American public has an opportunity to hear the leading candidates for the president of the United States debate the critical issues facing the nation. We believe the public will be well served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled."

Watch CBS Videos Online

Per the CBS EVENING NEWS WITH KATIE COURIC, a clip of Couric's interview with Sarah Palin. The GOP veep nom says America "may find itself on" the road to another Great Depression. Interview airs tonight.

In a press conference called this afternoon to respond to John McCain's decision to suspend his campaign, Barack Obama said that "every American has a stake in solving this crisis and saving our financial system from collapse" but that he is in favor of continuing the campaign and meeting Republican nominee in Mississippi Friday for the first presidential debate of the general election.

"This is exactly the time that the American people need to hear from the person who, in approximately 40 days, will be responsible for dealing with this mess," Obama said. "I think the president's job is to do more than one thing at a time. In my mind it's more important than ever that we present ourselves to the American people and discuss where we want to take the country."

Obama also said its time to put partisan politics aside to craft bailout legislation to revive the nation's flagging economy and noted that he's in regular contact with congressional leaders. But he said there's no reason the candidates can't constructively help to solve the country's fiscal crisis and also present their broader policy positions to the public.

"I believe that we should continue to have the debate," Obama said. "I think it makes sense for us to present ourselves before the American people."

Obama explained his version of the candidates' phone conversation today, saying that he first called McCain this morning at the suggestion of Sen. Tom Coburn, who he said called him with the idea. Obama said that when McCain phoned back at 2:30, he suggested a joint statement outlining their shared guidelines for a bailout package. McCain, he said, wanted a joint meeting in Washington with congressional leaders and "potentially the president."

Obama said he thought they'd left with an agreement to craft the statement. He said he didn't know McCain would suspend his campaign and suggest that the debate should be postponed.

"This is no longer a Democrat or Republican problem," Obama said. "It requires an American solution."

Debate organizers, meanwhile, announced this afternoon that the debate would go on as planned.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

A regular Hotline On Call feature highlighting local coverage of the presidential candidates on the stump.

EVENT: Change We Need Rally
Knology Park, Dunedin, FL
Sept. 24, 2008 - 1 p.m.
On The Dais: Barack Obama

A a town best known for hosting the Toronto Blue Jays for spring training , Dunedin got a "surprise visit" from Obama 9/24, the The St. Petersburg Times reports. The issue of race in the presidential contest found its way to the small town as well: "protestors clashed across the street" from Knology Park "several hours" before Obama showed up to speak. Mike Freese of St. Petersburg, "who is white," stood across the street wearing "a camouflage hat with a rebel flag stitched on it and the message 'Git-R-Done.' He carried a sign with a black-and-white duck referring to the fact that Obama is biracial."

Freese, who "said he is not a racist," had a "contentious verbal exchange" over race with Waleed McFarland, "an African-American man from Tampa" in the lead-up to the event. When Freese "tried to tell" him that "the country is not racist," McFarland replied: "This is the most racist country in the world, and that is a fact. What about segregation?"

McFarland, to the Times: "I've been following [Obama] since the 2004 Democratic convention. To me he represents the 80s, 90s and now. We've got reality TV, but we're further from reality than we've ever been."

At the event, local resident Rachel Gause told WFLA-TV she "pulled her third grader out of school" to witness Obama's speech in Dunedin. Gause said that she was there because Obama represents change. Gause, on Obama: "Don't you want to hug him? Don't you just feel that way about him?"

Not all Dunedin residents are so sure. Retired social worker Peggy Roche, to the Times: "I swing back and forth. But I do want [the candidates] to stop slandering one another and tell me what they can do for the country because we are in one, big mess."

Mark Myrik, 37, of Oldsmar told the Times that "the part of Obama's speech that dealt with the economy resonated most." Myrik: "If we keep going the way we are,'' Myrik said, "we'll be worse off than a Third World country."

At O'Keefe's Restaurant, the Tampa Bay Beacon reported that, "with 15 minutes notice, the mid-day lunch staff...suddenly found themselves hosting Obama, along with his legion if Secret Service protectors and lots of media." Manager Danielle duQuesenay, on the visit: "His personality came out. He was really friendly and spent time with each person, asking them their name and what they do. He didn't talk about politics at all."

After spending an hour at the restaurant, the paper reported Obama ordered a "'Cheeseburger in Paradise' to go with no mayo and no onions."

NOTE: John McCain was not on the stump today but in New York where he was scheduled to meet with several world leaders and U2's Bono.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

John McCain spokesman Brian Rogers aims to clarify the whole phone call story:

"Senator Obama phoned Senator McCain at 8:30 am this morning but did not reach him. The topic of Senator Obama’s call to Senator McCain was never discussed. Senator McCain was meeting with economic advisers and talking to leaders in Congress throughout the day prior to calling Senator Obama. At 2:30 pm, Senator McCain phoned Senator Obama and expressed deep concern that the plan on the table would not pass as it currently stands. He asked Senator Obama to join him in returning to Washington to lead a bipartisan effort to solve this problem."

So who looks more presidential, commander-in-chiefish, leadershipy now, eh?

DUNEDIN, FL -- Barack Obama called his rival's populist bona fides into question today during a rally in the Tampa Bay area.

John McCain decided in the last few days to begin talking tough on CEO pay, Obama told a crowd of about 11,000 people filling a baseball stadium, challenging the Arizona Republican's stance on tax cuts and so-called "golden parachutes" for corporate executives.

"He [McCain] is suddenly a hard-charging populist," he said. "That's all well and good, but I sure wish he was talking the same way over a year ago, when I introduced a bill that would've helped stop some of the multi-million-dollar bonus packages that CEOs grab on their way out the door, because he opposed that idea."

Obama said McCain did not join him when he "blew the whistle" on the CEOs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who tried to walk away with "golden parachutes" when they were fired.

"I sure wish he felt the same outrage about CEO pay when his top economic advisor – who he calls a 'role model' – walked away with a $42 million paypackage after being fired from Hewlett Packard," Obama went on, repeating a new line of attack he's begun to use in recent days, a reference to former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, who is advising McCain. "I sure wish he would change his current plan to give the average Fortune 500 CEO a $700- a $700,000 tax cut at a time when millions of Americans are struggling to pay their bills."

Obama's campaign has increasingly tried to cast him as a man of the people, who will be a champion for the middle class class, and the Dem's team is pushing McCain as a man who is out of touch and beholden to lobbyists, corporate interests and the wealthy.

(NBC/NJ's ATHENA JONES)

More on John McCain's decision to suspend his campaign, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy.

McCain senior adviser Mark Salter briefed reporters just now off camera on the decision:

--McCain will suspend airing all ads and all campaign events pending obama agreement.

--McCain called President Bush today and told him of the plan. He would not characterize Bush reax.

--McCain talked to colleagues on the Hill during last 2 days and learned that passage of the Paulson plan was going to be next to impossible.

--McCain would partake in debate if they passed agreement by Friday morning.

--Salter will get back to us on whther McCain is suspending fundraising.

--Salter says they are confident if all parties get together, they can agree on a plan by Monday.

So John McCain is suspending his campaign to work on the bailout bill, and he's suggesting that the candidates' first debate, scheduled for Friday in MS, should be postponed.

Waiting for word from Barack Obama's camp. Note, though, that Obama's team released this statement at just about the same moment CNN reported McCain's move:

"At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details."

So McCain's camp will assert that he's abandoning politics to tend to the people's business. But today's narrative centered on a new Washington Post/ABC News poll indicating that Obama has a nine-point lead. And voters respond in record levels, in that survey and recent others, that the economy is the foremost issue on their minds and that Obama is better suited to tackle the market challenges facing the nation. So McCain makes a bold move to suspend his campaign. What could be more political than that? He's changing the political dialogue and forcing Obama to react to his decision.

McCain's full statement, per a pool report, is available after the jump.

In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Barack Obama and Joe Biden lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 48-42%. The Dems' 6% advantage is the largest lead for either ticket in the survey thus far. In yesterday's release, Obama/Biden led 47-43%.

McCain/Palin lead men by 2%, down from their 6% margin yesterday. Among women, Obama/Biden have a double-digit (12%) advantage for the third consecutive day. They had led by 13% in the polls out Tues. and Mon.

Obama/Biden meanwhile doubled their lead among Inds to 6% and saw improvements among both Dems and GOPers. The Dem ticket now trails among GOPers by 77% (vs. 81% on 9/22) and leads among Dems by 80% (vs. 78% on 9/22).

Nearly six in ten (59%) Obama/Biden supporters say they are enthusiastically supporting the Dem ticket, while less than half (49%) of McCain/Palin supporters say the same. That 10% gap had been 6% on 9/21.

Today's survey, conducted 9/21-23 by FD, surveyed 903 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Bill McInturff, lead pollster for John McCain's campaign, moved to discount the results of the Washington Post/ABC News survey out this morning showing Barack Obama has a nine-point lead, calling the poll an "unusual outlier that does not represent where this campaign is."

McInturff said an examination of September polling in the battleground states (using Real Clear Politics averages) shows McCain and Obama within the margin of error in the most competitive contests: CO, FL, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI. McInturff argued that McCain was roughly one point ahead on average during the first week of the month, and Obama was up one the second week and over the last few days. McInturff called those results "remarkably stable."

The Washington Post/ABC News poll out today doesn't properly poll for party ID, he added. And he marked this survey as the second in the race to wildly miscast the contest; the other, he said, was a Los Angeles Times survey in June that showed McCain down 12.

"I don't think these results are at all indicative of what's happening in the campaign," McInturff said of the poll out today. He added: "We're functionally tied in the electoral college."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Barack Obama leads John McCain in the Washington Post/ABC survey out today, 52% to 43%. The paper's last poll, released in the days following the GOP convention in MN, showed McCain with a 2 percentage point advantage.

So what's helping the Dem nom? Voter belief that he's better suited to handle the nation's economy -- 53% to 39% for McCain -- and manage the crisis on Wall Street, according to the paper.

Another number of interest ... Sarah Palin's unfavorables are up 10 points since the last survey, to 38% from 28%.

Also note that the Republicans' enthusiasm gap appears to have reemerged -- 62% of Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, compared with 34% of McCain's supporters.

Meanwhile, for all the talk of race in the race, McCain has a meager 5 percentage point lead over Obama with white voters, 50% to 45%. And Indys, key swing voters, break for Obama, 53% to 39%.

Remember, though, that the apparent swing in Obama's favor should be viewed skeptically. Battleground polls, released as recently as yesterday, show a dead heat in several critical states, including CO and MI.

Tough-talking Joe Biden speech expected today in Cincinnati. Excerpts after the jump. He's expected to hit John McCain for lacking the judgement required to be commander in chief:

“John McCain continues to insist, against all the evidence and all the facts, that Iraq is the central front in the war on terrorism… and not the mountains between Afghanistan and Pakistan where the people who actually attacked us on 9-11 reside and are regrouping.”

“John is more than wrong -- he is dangerously wrong. On a question so basic, so fundamental, so critical to our nation’s security, we can’t afford a Commander-in Chief so divorced from reality and from America’s most basic national interests.”

Reporters were initially barred from Sarah Palin's first meetings with world leaders at the U.N. on 9/23.

CNN's Henry: "The [John] McCain campaign had tried to make the meetings no risk, at first refusing to allow reporters to join cameras in the Karzai meeting. Then, the five U.S. television networks, including CNN, said they would not air the video if a reporter could not be there. So, the McCain camp backed down. ... Most Americans probably couldn't care less if the media is going to get shut out. It would probably win Sarah Palin votes if they kept the media out, because we're not very popular. But she's running for vice president, and ultimately, she has to start answering questions" ("AC 360," 9/23).

More Henry: "What happened was sort of funny, because, with Henry Kissinger, you had him there in his very distinctive accent talking about the situation in Georgia with Russia and Sarah Palin said something like, I definitely want more insight on that from you. And then she met with President Karzai, and they talked about his son and how his son's name means light of the house. And, so, this was pretty light stuff. This was not exactly heavy-hitting stuff. And, so, you have got to wonder, why did the McCain campaign originally not want reporters in? It's not like it was heavy on substance" ("Election Center," 9/23).

Ex-UN Amb. John Bolton: "I think the purpose of these meetings in New York was to give her a chance to hear from significant foreign leaders, and that, obviously, was accomplished. And whether she talked to the press before, during, or after, I think is completely irrelevant" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 9/23).

MSNBC's Maddow: "This isn't North Korea; we don't do just do pure photo-ops with no questions" ("Rachel Maddow Show," 9/23).

More after the jump, including McCain/Obama reveal favorite movies, Ahmadinejad talks WH '08 and Bill Clinton on role reversals.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Steven Biegun, senior foreign policy adviser to the John McCain/Sarah Palin campaign, briefed the press this afternoon about Palin's meetings in New York with world leaders. The pen and pad follows a day (months?) of bad blood between the campaign and print press, who were excluded from a brief photo op with Palin and Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Here's the Biegun exchange, per NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger:

Biegun: "What I thought I would do to start with is give you an overview of the governor's schedule this morning and then break it down and give you a few words about a couple of the meetings and then we will open it up for a few questions."

"Governor Palin had 4 meetings on her schedule today. Her first one was a routing briefing provided by the office of the director of national intelligence. Admiral Mike McConnell arrived in New York City and provided her a briefing that is standard for candidates for the vice president and president. As you probably know some of the other candidates on the ticket this fall have received those briefings. Governor Palin spent about 2 hrs with Director McConnell and his team--An excellent briefing."

"For the rest of my presentation I'm not going to characterize the content of that one for obvious reasons so if I say in all the meetings or in some of the meetings I am not referring to that meeting. I can't -"

John McCain in Freeland, MI, this afternoon listed the "five basic improvements" he requires of legislation being crafted to address the nation's economic crisis:

1. Greater oversight
2. Path for taxpayers to recover the money put into this fund
3. Complete transparency in the review and implementation of the legislation
4. No Wall Street execs should profit from taxpayer dollars
5. No earmarks included in the bill

McCain twice passed on questions about possible deal-breakers. When told that some Dems have said they want the GOP nom on board with the plan or they'd have to vote 'no,' McCain said: "I hope that Democrats would recognize that this issue should not be in any way related to my vote. This issue and their vote should be determined in how we can resolve this crisis and get America going again. ... To somehow for the Democrats to say that their vote is going to be gauged on my vote, frankly doesn't do them a great deal of credit."

(JS)

Available after the jump, full Barack Obama speech today in Tampa about his plan to protect taxpapers and homeowners.

WOODBRIDGE, VA - A day after criticizing his own campaign ad, Joe Biden carefully stuck to message today, knocking John McCain for playing "the same old Washington game" of double talk when it comes to tax loopholes. The 25-minute speech was one of his fastest to date and comes as Biden's off-message moments are attracting more attention.

In an interview with CBS News that aired Monday, the Delaware senator called a campaign ad that referred to McCain's computer illiteracy "terrible," adding that it wouldn't have seen the light of day if he had known about it. A YouTube video of Biden saying the Democratic ticket does not support "clean coal" is making the rounds. The comment found its way into McCain's morning speech.

Even simple misstatements, like Biden erroneously saying Franklin Roosevelt addressed the nation on television after the 1929 stock market crash, are getting more attention in Republican press releases.

Barack Obama's campaign has attempted to clarify Biden's comments. They say he hadn't actually seen the McCain computer ad when he made his statement. And on clean coal, they counter by calling it a misinterpretation.

"Senator Biden's point is that China is building coal plants with outdated technology every day, and the United States needs to lead by developing clean coal technologies," Biden spokesman David Wade said in a statement.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden now lead John McCain/Sarah Palin in the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll 47-43% -- a narrower margin than their 47-42% lead in yesterday's release. The Dems lead Inds by only 3%, down from their 10% margin on 9/21.

McCain/Palin expanded their lead among men to 6% from 2%, while they continue to trail among women by 13%.

There are some new record lows and highs to report in today's release. Only 12% of respondents now believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction. Meanwhile, 56% say the economy is the top issue facing the nation.

For the second consecutive day, Obama leads McCain by 1% on the issue of who would do a better job handling the economy. Yesterday he led 44-43%; today he leads 43-42%.

Today's survey, conducted 9/20-22 by FD, surveyed 906 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS, OH - While the press is abuzz about word of John McCain's first press conference since August 13, his campaign is pushing a very different talking point - the Democratic ticket's alleged opposition to clean coal.

After receiving the endorsement of the International Union of Operating Engineers' Local 18 in Strongsville this morning, McCain gave a brief statement to reporters emphasizing that clean coal would be a large part of his job-creation agenda.

"One important way that we are going to create jobs here is with the development of additional nuclear power plants and through investments in clean coal technology," McCain said. "We will invest as much as two billion dollars a year to develop clean coal technology. America sits on the world's largest coal reserves, and we have to use it. Clean coal technology is the best way."

He pointed Joe Biden's remark last week in OH in which the veep nom said that he and Barack Obama don't support increased use of coal.

"We're not supporting 'clean coal,'" Biden said. "Guess what? China's building two every week. Two dirty coal plants. And it's polluting the United States. It's causing people to die. ...No coal plants here in America. Build them, if they're going to build them over there make 'em clean because they're killing you."

A spokesperson for Biden released a statement today saying that the Obama-Biden ticket does indeed support clean coal. Spokesman David Wade said that Biden's "point is that China is building coal plants with outdated technology every day, and the United States needs to lead by developing clean coal technologies." Yet this morning McCain still said that this marks a point of difference between the rival tickets.

"My opponent is against the expansion of nuclear power," McCain said. "His running mate here in Ohio recently said that they weren't supporting clean coal either. And the fact is that their billions of dollars in higher taxes would kill jobs here in Ohio. That's not what Ohio needs and that's not what America needs."

McCain's campaign also quickly announced the formation of the "McCain-Palin campaign's Coalition to Protect Coal Jobs," which was announced today on a conference call including WV Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito, former VA Governor and Senator George Allen, former CO Congressman Scott McInnis and RNC Chairman Mike Duncan.

(NBC/NJ's ADAM AIGNER-TREWORGY)

Barack Obama's campaign is launching a 30-second spot in MI capitalizing on John McCain's false promise that he only buys American vehicles. The McCains actually have three foreign cars in their fleet of 13 vehicles, a Lexus, Honda and Volkswagen convertible.

The contest in MI is tight as can be, with recent polls showing Obama up between 1-9%. Could voters who work in the state's depressed auto industry respond to McCain's auto preferences? Or might the fib be the bigger sin in this episode? The Obama camp is hoping both turn voters off.

Narrator: "Don't believe John McCain when he says he'll help Michigan."

Pool report, courtesy Peter Hamby/CNN
Gov. Sarah Palin's meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai
9/23/08
Intercontinental Hotel (49th and Lexington)

====

The press pool (still and TV cameras only, plus this producer) entered into Karzai’s sizeable suite at the Intercontinental shortly after noon. One handler, who did not appear to be with the campaign but rather with Karzais’ entourage, repeatedly said “No writers,” and he tried to keep this pooler from entering the room when he saw my notebook. However, Chris Edwards, Palin’s deputy chief of staff, allowed me to pass.

Palin was seated in a large chair a few feet from Karzai, with a table in between them. From the view of the pool cameras, Palin sat on the left, and Karzai to the right.

Seated slightly behind Palin were foreign policy advisers Steve Biegun and Randy Scheunemann, who are accompanying the governor in her motorcade today.

As the pool entered, the Afghan president appeared to be telling Palin about his young son, who was born in January 2007.

Palin, her legs crossed and at one point patting her heart, was leaning in eagerly and smiling. Karzai, wearing his traditional clothes but without his trademark karakul hat, was also grinning while discussing the child. His remarks were unintelligible as the noise from the clicking cameras drowned them out.

This was the only exchange that was heard:

“What is his name?,” Palin asked.

“Mirwais,” Karzai responded. “Mirwais, which means, ‘The Light of the House.’”

“Oh nice,” Palin responded.

“He is the only one we have,” remarked Karzai.

At this point, the pool was hustled out the room and down to the hotel lobby.

Pool was in the room for a grand total of 29 seconds.

Palin spokesperson Tracey Schmitt gave a statement to reporters in the lobby as to why print pool and wires were not allowed in:

"The decision was made for this to be a photo spray with still cameras and video cameras only."

Michelle Obama issued a two-minute message today urging voters to gather with friends Friday evening to watch the first televised presidential debate. She says many people still don't know Barack Obama's positions on issues from health care to education.

M. Obama: "They also don't know that John McCain shares many of George Bush's views. In fact, he's voted with George Bush more than 90 percent of the time. Including not investigating the government response to Katrina, not supporting college benefits for returning veterans and passing tax cuts for the rich at the expense of the middle class."

New Quinnipiac University polling for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal shows the battleground contests tight and largely unchanged in the last month.

Per washingtonpost.com's Cillizza:

In Colorado, Obama takes 49 percent to 45 percent for McCain while in Michigan Obama stands at 48 percent as compared to 44 percent for McCain. The contest in Minnesota, once considered a lock for Obama, is also quite close with Obama at 47 percent and McCain 45 percent. Only in Wisconsin does Obama have an edge -- 49 percent to 42 percent -- outside the statistical margin of error for the poll.

Those results are remarkably similar to data from July Quinnipiac polls in each of the four states and suggest that despite the massive media coverage surrounding the two parties' national nominating conventions as well as the vice presidential selections -- especially that of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, which many presumed would alter the campaign's dynamic -- little has changed in the race for the White House.

John McCain's camp released word today that he'll have his first press conference today since Aug. 13, reports NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy. 4 p.m. in MI. It's been 41 days since the GOP nom took questions from national reporters. There are 42 days remaining in the WH contest. And Sarah Palin, we should remind readers, has yet to hold a press availability.

New John McCain spot criticizes Barack Obama for being "Mum" on the market crisis. Airing nationally.

New Obama spot -- "Destination" -- slams McCain for protecting tax breaks for companies who stash their money offshore. In turn, insurance execs and lobbyists donated to McCain's campaign. Airing on national cable.

The $700B bailout plan continues to be the talk of the TV.

FNC's Barnes: "We would be in a better situation, or at least the Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson would, if this were known as a 'rescue' rather than a 'bailout.' 'Bailout' sounds terrible. Who is for a bailout? A lot of people are for a rescue. But, look, speed is very important here" ("Special Report," 9/22).

Mitt Romney, asked what is John McCain's problem with the bailout plan: "Well, he has a couple points that he thinks need to be kept in mind. One is, he doesn't want the Treasury secretary alone to be responsible for acquiring these troubled assets from all these financial institutions. He would like there to be an independent oversight board making sure that politics is not part of the process, and that the values and the direction of Congress is followed. ... The second thing he wants to make sure happens is that managers of these enterprises that are saved on behalf of the taxpayers of America, the citizens of America, that these managers don't pay themselves big bonuses and get a lot of cash" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 9/22).

Obama economic advisor Austan Goolsbee, asked if Barack Obama is 100% happy with the bailout plan: "No, certainly not. And you've seen him specifying his concerns. ... Once you're in the crisis and your house is on fire, you have got to put the fire out. So he's not trying to play politics. What he is insisting on is that we have several basic things that must be included. A, we can't give a blank check to this administration. ... Two, there has to be concern about the core economic issues that got us into this crisis and that continue to face us" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 9/22).

Wall Street Journal's Fund: "We are six weeks away from an election in which almost every member of Congress is on the ballot. They are panicking like wildebeests confronted by lions across the plain. And I think the American people are going to be the worse off for this, because the taxpayer is caught holding the bag. If this were after the election, I think we could have a more rational, more reasonable, more prudent approach. Now we're panicking. And I think we're going to make some very ill-advised moves if we add all of these Christmas tree amendments to the bill" ("AC 360," CNN, 9/22).

After the jump, CBS catches up with Biden, the McCains on their favorite TV shows, Bill Clinton on the VP spot and is Al Franken writing for "SNL" again?

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

T. Boone Pickens, the billionaire Texas oilman, told a collection of Atlantic Media reporters tonight that he is concerned the presidential candidates "don't know much about energy" and aren't equipped to initiate a sweeping plan to reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil.

"I'm not overwhelmed," Pickens said when asked if he believes Barack Obama and John McCain are committed to pushing the proposals necessary to transition to clean energy. "I hope I"m not looking at two candidates that look like the last 15. They're going to have to get a lot smarter about energy than they are right now."

Over filet and roasted vegetables, Pickens said, however, that after meeting with McCain and Obama earlier in the campaign season he would rate their interest in his effort a "10." McCain, Pickens said, told the 82-year-old that he'd elevated energy to the top issue in the campaign.

But Pickens noted of McCain's energy priority: "He's very focused on nuclear energy, but nuclear energy does not address what I'm after."

His wife, Madeleine, by his side, Pickens also dismissed suggestions by some politicians -- notably GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin -- that drilling in the Artic National Wildlife Refuge is the answer.

"If you could pick up a million barrels a day off of ANWR, I'd be surprised," he said.

Pickens, of course, funded the effort to Swift Boat John F. Kerry's presidential campaign in 2004 but has toured the nation this cycle lecturing on the urgency of his cause. Dressed in a suit and tie, tired, he said, after making three other appearances in Washington today, including an address to the National Press Club, Pickens still manages to pepper his remarks with folksy Texas talk. "Like a duck on June bug," he quips to underscore one point. And when, at the end of a long day, he can't quite summon the full story he had launched, he places a hand gently on his wife's shoulder, and she, in a soft voice, reminds him where he'd left off.

Pickens is flat serious about the cause, and repeating his stories for eager audiences is par for that course. Despite the fatigue -- with 42 days to go and a dimmed view that either presidential candidate has what it takes to implement the change required -- he trudges on. Information is his chief ally in this massive mission -- to convince politicians and the American public to pledge to reduce the country's dependence on foreign oil by 30% in 10 years.

Regaling his dinner companions with talk of the merits of wind energy and natural gas, he suggested that the infrastructure needed to tap natural reserves will take time to build but that it can be handled by the private sector. Politicians also must get on board, he said, noting that McCain and Obama haven't signed on to his pledge. "We're going to turn up the heat," he promised.

"This has become a crusade for me, and so I decided whatever it cost I was going to do it," Pickens said. "I could afford it, I understood it, and the American people didn't."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

NOTE: A full transcript of Pickens' remarks will be available on On Call tomorrow.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center has a poll out this evening showing John McCain has a narrow edge in the Granite State, 47% to 45% over Barack Obama.

“The race in New Hampshire is very close, but about 1 in 4 voters are not firm in supporting either candidate,” Andy Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center, said in a statement. “New Hampshire is definitely a state that is up for grabs and will remain so until election day.”

McCain is the only non-incumbent to ever win back-to-back New Hampshire primaries. He trounced George W. Bush by 19 points in the 2000 GOP contest, and the state is responsible for resurrecting McCain's floundering campaign earlier this year. Obama, by contrast, lost the first-in-the-nation primary to Hillary Clinton.

State voters are notoriously fussy about their candidates, demanding a vigorous courtship for their political affections. And New Hampshire, as our readers know, is a critical battleground in a tight contest -- despite its meager four-vote electoral take. The state -- with its suburban sprawl creeping from Boston up the 93 corridor -- is trending blue. Riding a Democratic wave that saw the party take hold of the governor's office and both chambers of the state Legislature for the first time in a century, John F. Kerry won the state's 2004 primary. Should Obama lose sway there, it could spell broader trouble for his campaign.

Maybe it's time for Round 2 in Unity ...

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

With six weeks remaining until voters go to the polls, On Call launches a new feature today highlighting local news coverage of the presidential candidates' events across the nation. Though Washingtonians read their favorite national scribes religiously, the White House contest will, of course, be decided in small towns and larger cities in a handful of battleground states. In Scranton and Green Bay, in Columbus and Miami. So we decided to provide a truly Hotline-ish view of the race -- a look at what local reporters, who know their swing states best, are writing about the nominees' homestretch visits.

Hotline's Evan McMorris-Santoro will pen the daily item.

But Would Dwight Schrute Attract Lady Voters?

EVENT: Irish American Presidential Forum/McCain Town Hall

Scranton Cultural Center, Scranton, PA
Sept. 22, 2008 - 10:30 a.m.
On the dias: John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Joe Lieberman

John McCain started things off this morning in Scranton, PA, with a line aimed at the hometown crowd. Tick-tocking the event on the paper's website as it unfolded, the Scranton Times-Tribune wrote that McCain told the crowd "he was considering Dwight Schrute from "The Office" as his running mate" before he chose Sarah Palin.

The paper writes that, by agreeing to be the first GOP nominee at one of the Irish-American Presidential Forums hosted every four years since by New York attorney John C. Dearie, McCain has "clearly signaled" he "intends to court" the Scranton region's Irish-American voters, "who are overwhelmingly Catholic and whose loyalities traditionally lie with the Democrats."

But local Irish-American leaders - including Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty (D) - said they weren't asked to be part of the event. Lackwanna County Friendly Sons of St. Patrick pres. John Keeler, said he, too, hadn't been called: "I wish McCain well, but I'm kind of on the other side." The mayor and Keeler told the paper they are supporting Obama.

At the event, the Times-Tribune wrote that "what stood out most" in the "packed" hall "were the veterans and military familes - many wearing hats touting the military branch they or loved ones serve in - and the Catholic moms with children in one hand and anti-abortion signs in the other."

In his speech, McCain "paid tribute to the service Irish-Americans have given the country" but led off by "telling a joke about two Irish brothers."

WNEP-TV's Andy Palumbo on the lines for the McCain event that stretched around the block: "A lot of people here in Scranton were very happy to see him ... People started showing up well before sunrise."

WYOU-TV grabbed an interview with a Scranton McCain volunteer gearing up for the Town Hall yesterday. Volunteer Jeff Proof: "Scranton is very likely to be the key to, I believe, this election. I believe if he takes Scranton, he takes the state."

The Democrats didn't sit idly by as McCain wooed the crowd in Joe Biden's hometown. PA Gov. Ed Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey held a presser at Obama's Scranton HQ at the same time McCain spoke. Both took to the mics to "decry Mr. McCain's record and tout Mr. Obama's tax plan."

Check out WNEP's Web site later this evening for the station's "exclusive" sit-down interview with McCain.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

Barack Obama's Green Bay round-up available after the jump.

In the latest release of the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Obama/Biden lead McCain/Palin 47-42% -- the largest lead for either ticket in the survey thus far. In the previous three releases, Obama/Biden led 45-44%.

The Dem ticket now leads Inds by 10%, a group they had trailed by 1% and 2%, respectively, in the surveys completed 9/20 and 9/19. Obama/Biden also lead Dems 86-6% and trail GOPers 87-6%.

Among women, Obama/Biden hold a 13% margin -- equaling their largest lead among women in the tracking poll. While among men, McCain/Palin lead by 2%, down from their advantages of 5% on 9/20 and 8% on 9/19.

For the second consecutive day, 55% of respondents believe the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S. -- another all-time high. McCain meanwhile has narrowed Obama's lead on who would best handle the economy to just 1%. Obama led on the economy by 3% on 9/20, 5% on 9/19 and 11% as recently as 9/15.

Today's survey, conducted 9/19-21 by FD, surveyed 915 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

The Seattle Times endorsed Barack Obama today:

An economic Katrina is shattering the confidence of hardworking, middle-class Americans. The war that should never have been in Iraq is dragging on too long. At a time of huge challenge, the candidate with the intelligence, temperament and judgment to lead our nation to a better place is Sen. Barack Obama.

Obama should be the next president of the United States because he is the most qualified change agent. Obama is a little young, but also brilliant. If he sometimes seems brainy and professorial, that's OK. We need the leader of the free world to think things through, carefully. We have seen the sorry results of shooting from the hip.

Barack Obama is in Green Bay today. His prepared remarks are available after the jump.

Women are split in the latest Lifetime 'Every Woman Counts' national survey, with 47% backing Barack Obama to 45% for John McCain. The poll, conducted from 9/11-15 (which didn't correspond with the news last week of historic upheaval in the nation's financial markets), has a margin of error of 4.4%.

Other nuggets of interest ...

Clintonites Coming 'Round

-- Of those who supported Hillary Clinton in the primary, 72% planned to vote for Obama and 23% for McCain.

Single City Dwellers For Obama

-- The Democratic ticket received majority support from 18-34 year old women (59%), Black women (89%), Northeastern, Western and urban women (55%, 54% and 63% respectively), single women (68%), those earning less than $30,000 (61%) and $50-70,000 (60%), Democrats (83%) and liberals (82%).

McCainiacs: White, Married, Rich And Rural

-- McCain’s support surpassed the 50 percent mark among 35-44 year old women and women ages 55 to 64 (56% and 51%), White women (53%), South Central residents (54%), rural women (59%), married women (55%), women who do not work outside the home (62%), those earning $30-50,000 (50%) and more than $70,000 (51%), Republicans (91%), and Independent women (52%).

Polarizing Palin

-- One in five women (18%) said they were much more likely to vote for the Republican ticket because of Sarah Palin, while another one in five (20%) said they were much less likely to support this ticket. Overall, 28% said they were more likely to support McCain with Palin on the ticket and 24% said they are less likely, with 47% claiming it made no difference.

-- Favorability toward Palin tended to be lower among 18-34 year olds (44% mostly favorable), Black women (15%), urban women (38%), and Democrats and liberals (20% and 22%). A plurality of Clinton primary voters (44%) held a mostly negative view of Palin, while 27% were mostly positive and 22% had a neutral of mixed view.

The Split Difference

-- Obama/Biden had the edge when voters were asked which ticket has the best plan to end the war in Iraq (+14), will do more to help middle class families (+25), will bring about change the country needs (+14) and will reform Washington (+7). McCain/Palin won out, however, when voters were asked who is ready to lead (+4), who has a better understanding of issues important to women (+2) and who has the best plan to win the war in Iraq (+14).

And One For The Road

Voters were asked: "Which of the following women do you think is the best role model for young girls in this country?"

29% Michelle Obama
28% Sarah Palin
23% Hillary Clinton
9% Cindy McCain
1% Jill Biden

The poll, conducted by WomanTrend and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 534 likely female voters.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Reacting to today's New York Times' story revealing that John McCain campaign manager Rick Davis was paid "more than $30,000 a month for five years as president of an advocacy group set up by the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to defend them against stricter regulations," the GOPer's spokesman accused the newspaper of having lost all journalistic integrity.

"We are first amendement absolutists on this campaign," Steve Schmidt, a senior adviser to the campaign, said on a call with reporters, " ... But let’s be clear and be honest with each other ... Whatever the New York Times once was, it is today, not by any standard, a journalistic organization. It is a pro Obama advocacy organization. ... This is an organization that is completely, totally, 150% in the tank for the Democratic candidate."

Schmidt said the paper has "cast aside its journalistic integrity and tradition to advocate for the defeat of one candidate, in this case, John McCain" and for an Obama victory.

The NYT reported that Davis was president of the Homeownership Alliance, which helped Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac beat back regulatory challenges.

Davis on the story: "First of all, I appreciate all the exposure that I get in the New York Times. I feel like they must have some kind of a Davis envy going on."

"I was the public face of an organization that promoted home ownership for over 15 years," Davis added. "... I never lobbied a single day. Sure I have relationships there. But also you’ll notice John McCain's track record, even while I was involved in the home owners' association, he was actively pursuing attacks against the GSEs."

Davis said he severed his leave of absence from his lobbying firm 18 months ago and that his work for the alliance ended a year and a half prior.

"I’ve taken no compensation from my company," he added.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Barack Obama told CNBC's Chief Washington Correspondent John Harwood that his plan to reform the nation's health care policy won't fall victim to the government's $700B bailout plan.

HARWOOD: So no change in your health care plan?

OBAMA: Well, the--but keep in mind, my health care plan is paid for. And I continue to believe that rolling back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans makes sense. They are still going to be wealthy after those are rolled back. I still believe that it is important for us to make college more affordable. And I think it's important that all those things are paid for in light of this huge additional potential expense.

Full transcript of the interview, issued last night, available after the jump.

BALTIMORE -- Joe Biden accepted the endorsement of the National Association of Police Organizations this morning on behalf of the Democratic ticket, pledging to again provide a seat at the table for local law enforcement.

Biden, speaking on a conference call with NAPO President Tom Nee, made a plug for the "Biden Crime Bill," which he said was contributed to a 30 percent drop in violent crime in the 1990s.

"Then, for some reason, because this administration and my good friend John don't think it's a role of the federal government to be involved in local law enforcement ... they decided they had to stop it," he said. Biden promised to re-establish those policies, to provide funding and technological assistance to communities across the country.

ORLANDO - Sarah Palin will meet with the presidents of Iraq, Pakistan, Georgia and the Ukraine, as well as singer and activist Bono during her three-day trip this week to New York, John McCain's campaign announced yesterday.

Palin will meet jointly Wednesday with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvilli and Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko, according to campaign officials. She then sits down with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari before hosting Bono, the lead singer of U2. Later in the day, she will meet with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

The campaign had previously announced meetings set for Tuesday in New York, including Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Columbian President Alvaro Uribe.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

New John McCain spot running nationally pitches Dem nom Barack Obama as a product of "the corrupt Chicago political machine." Mentions Obama's ties to Tony Rezko, IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich, IL Senate President Emil Jones and Bill Daley, lobbyist and brother of Chicago mayor Richard Daley.

Obama's camp answered with a comment from spokesman Bill Burton and an ad of their own. “It's no coincidence that on the very day newspapers reported that John McCain's campaign manager was paid $2 million to lobby against tighter regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the McCain campaign would launch this false, gratuitous attack. Barack Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate as an independent Democrat. He took on the Chicago Democratic organization in a primary to win a seat in the US Senate. And in both Illinois and Washington, he has challenged the Old Guard for landmark ethics reforms,” Burton said.

The new Obama spot, which will also run nationally, pushes a McCain comment in which he said the health care industry should be deregulated much like the banking industry. McCain: “Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation.”

Here's Obama's "Article" ...

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Treas. Sec. Henry Paulson made the TV rounds this weekend, appearing on four of the five Sunday shows.

Paulson, on the risks of doing nothing about the economic crisis: "Last week, as the credit markets were frozen, the capital markets were frozen, we had a situation where American companies weren't able to borrow money. This could ultimately affect small banks, loans to businesses, loans to farmers, jobs, people's retirement. And this is a situation we can deal with and we need to deal with. And it began with excesses in the system, irresponsible behavior and practices in financial institutions."

More Paulson: "And so, what we are recommending is that the government buy illiquid assets in big size from the institutions -- these are what are clogging up the system -- so that they can play the role they need to play."

Paulson, asked what happens if the plan doesn't work: "Well, this is something that has to work. I very much believe it will work. ... We work our way through these situations as a people. We always get through these situations, and we will get through these situations. And the key here is to get through this with as little negative impact on the American people as possible."

Paulson, on conservatives saying this "smacks of socialism": "This is big government intervention. I think this is an unprecedented time. We have a system, a regulatory system that was broken. There are excesses in the system. And I have never, as a philosophy, thought intervention was good. I would just tell you it's necessary right now."

Much more after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll shows Obama/Biden at 45% and McCain/Palin at 44% - the same results as yesterday. Perhaps, after so much post-convention volatility we are finally starting to see some stabilization in this race.

Even as conventional wisdom contends that this week's bad economic news is politically beneficial to Obama, today's poll shows that the IL Sen holds just a 3 pt. lead over McCain - 44% to 41% - on the issue of who voters see as better able to handle the economy.

Meanwhile, Palin is something of a double-edged sword. While her pick is likely responsible for the fact that Republicans have closed the enthusiasm-gap with Democrats - 58% of GOPers say they are enthusiastic about their candidate while 60% of Democrats say the same thing, more voters see her as unprepared than prepared to be POTUS if McCain is not able to. On 9/11, 49% said that they thought she was prepared compared to 44% who said she wasn't. Today's poll shows 47% see her as prepared and 48% say she's not.

Today's tracking poll, conducted 9/18-20 by FD, surveyed 922 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

(AMY WALTER)

The Sat. edition of the Diageo/Hotline nat'l tracking poll shows Barack Obama and Joe Biden maintaining their 45-44% lead over John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Inds, who had gone 41-38% for Obama/Biden in yesterday's survey, now break 41-39% in favor of the GOP ticket. McCain/Palin now lead 86-6% among GOPers (vs. 87-6% yesterday) and trail 84-10% among Dems (vs. 83-9% yesterday).

Obama/Biden meanwhile lead 50-41% among women and trail 48-40% among men. Previously, the Dems led 49-41% among women and trailed 48-42% among men.

Just 13% of respondents now say things in the U.S. are going in the right direction -- a record low for the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. In the previous release, 15% said right direction; on 9/10, 20% said the same.

What's more, 53% believe the economy is the top issue facing the U.S. -- another all-time high. Yesterday, 47% said the economy, and only 36% named it on 9/13.

Today's tracking poll, conducted 9/17-19 by FD, surveyed 922 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

Please visit Diageo/Hotline for more info.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

STERLING, VA - Joe Biden made a pitch to women voters here today, focusing on economic issues and promising to end "a cowboy mentality of the Bush and McCain era."

"Ladies and gentlemen," Biden told a mostly-female audience, "these guys have worshipped, they have worshipped at the shrine of deregulation. John McCain proudly said not long ago on Wall Street, and I quote 'I'm always, I'm always for less regulation.'"

Biden spoke about a call he and Obama had today with their economic team, and outlined short-term and long-term solutions to the current economic situation. He tied the events of the day to the focus of his event: women's issues.

CORAL GABLES, FL -- Barack Obama wooed female voters in South Florida on Friday, focusing on equal pay and abortion rights even as officials in Washington worked on a dramatic plan to rescue the nation's teetering financial system.

Throughout his roughly 40-minute speech, the senator stressed his difference with John McCain on issues of concern to women, but he could not resist taking a dig at his rival early on for comments the Arizona senator made earlier today about the market turmoil.

“This morning Sen. McCain gave a speech in which his big solution to this world wide economic crisis was to blame me for it,” Obama said to boos from the crowd of about 8,000 people. “This is the guy who spent nearly three decades in Washington and after spending the entire campaign saying I haven’t been in Washington long enough, he apparently now is willing to assign me the responsibility for all of Washington’s failures. Now I think it’s pretty clear, I think it’s pretty clear that Sen. McCain is a little panicked right now. At this point he seems to be willing to say anything or do anything or change any position or violate any principle to try and win this election.”

He also spoke about his commitment to equal pay for equal work, pointing out that McCain had opposed legislation to help women achieve pay parity. Obama also mentioned that McCain called Roe v. Wade a “flawed decision” and was running on a platform to outlaw abortion even in cases of rape and incest, an issue some of his campaign’s ads have highlighted.

“Change means a president who will stand up for choice, who understands that five men on the Supreme Court don’t know better than women and their families and their doctors about what’s best for their health,” he said. “That’s why I fought so hard in Illinois and Washington to stop laws that overturn Roe v Wade. That’s why I am committed to appointing judges who understand how law operates in our daily lives, judges who will uphold the values at the core of our constitution. That’s why I will never back down from defending a woman’s right to choose.”

Third attack ad released by John McCain's campaign in the last two days. This one, a Spanish-language spot running in FL, attempts to revisit Barack Obama's assertion that he would meet with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Obama is at a women's issues rally today in FL, where he also met with members of his economic advisory team.

Scripts, English and Spanish, available after the jump.

With 79 matchups recently released in 43 different states, The Hotline's Electoral College projection is as divided as ever. Barack Obama now leads with 264 EVs to John McCain's 219 EVs. With 55 EVs currently classified as toss-up, no candidate meets the 270 EV threshold for election.

In last week's update, Obama led overall 292-246 EVs (with no toss-up states) and 107-64 among lean EVs; McCain previously led 173-144 among solid EVs. Today, Obama leads 95-76 among lean EVs, as well as 169-134 among solid EVs.

The 55 toss-up EVs come from FL, IA and PA; in each of these battleground states, the most recent poll was tied. What's more, even with the recent prolific period in polling, only 4 of the 37 swing state polls added since last week's update show Obama or McCain with a solid lead. Of all 79 new surveys in this update, 33 showed statistically significant advantages.

The states with the most new additions this week are NC (4 new polls), NJ (5 new polls) and OH (8 new polls). Meanwhile, only two states remain without WH '08 polling data; AR and SD still reside as Bush/Bush projections for McCain.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 2 states without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Obama/Biden's lead among RVs has dropped to just 1%. The Dem ticket now leads McCain/Palin 45-44%; in yesterday's release, Obama/Biden led 46-42%. Today's survey is the closest the candidates have been since the Dems' 44-43% lead on 9/14.

Since the previous survey, McCain/Palin saw noticeable gains among both Inds and men. The GOPers now trail among Inds by just 3%; they had previously trailed by 8%. Meanwhile among men, McCain/Palin now lead 48-42%, up from their 1% deficit one day ago and their first lead in the category since 9/14. The 6% GOP margin among men is also their largest since 9/12.

On the issues, 47% now say the economy is the most important one currently facing the U.S., a new record in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Yesterday, 44% cited the economy was the top issue, and only 36% named it as recently as 9/13.

Today's survey, conducted 9/16-18 by FD, surveyed 915 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg and a roundtable with CNBC's Erin Burnett, CNBC's John Harwood, CNBC's Steve Liesman and Washington Post's Steven Pearlstein.

Face the Nation hosts House Financial Services Cmte Chair Barney Frank (D-MA) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL). Other guests TBA.

This Week hosts TBD.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Charles Schumer (D-NY). The "Power Player" is American Red Cross chair Bonnie McElveen-Hunter.

Late Edition hosts McCain economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin, CNN's Gloria Borger, CNN's Ed Henry, CNN's Bill Schneider, GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, Dem strategist Hilary Rosen, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez and Dem strategist James Carville.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

President Bush's full Rose Garden speech on the economy is available after the jump.

One presidential assurance:

"In this difficult time, I know many Americans are wondering about the security of their finances. Every American should know that the federal government continues to enforce laws and regulations protecting your money. Through the FDIC, every savings account, checking account, and certificate of deposit is insured by the federal government for up to $100,000. The FDIC has been in existence for 75 years, and no one has ever lost a penny on an insured deposit -- and this will not change."

... in the abuse-of-power investigation of GOP veep nom Sarah Palin.

Note that Barack Obama's speech in Miami this morning doesn't include a single political criticism of his rival -- a stark contrast with John McCain's earlier address in Green Bay. Full text available after the jump.

As the nation braces for more dire economic news, John McCain released his second ad in 48 hours attempting to link former Freddie and Fannie officials to Barack Obama's campaign.

Today's spot indicates that Jim Johnson, who stepped down from the Obama campaign in July, is advising the Dem nom and raising money for his campaign. In yesterday's McCain spot, the GOPer accuses Obama of taking Frank Raines' advice on mortgage policy. Raines insists he's never consulted Obama on mortgage policy, despite the McCain camp's allegations.

In light of the severity of the country's financial situation, will voters continue to respond to sharp political attacks? Or, after weeks of lipstick and moose burgers, will the candidates pivot to a more serious dialogue about the pressing issues of the day? The McCain campaign, having scrapped back into contention over the last month with a series of hard-hitting negative ads and the debut of Sarah Palin, appears none too eager to abandon what has so far been a successful strategy. But given the urgency of the moment, could this blatant politicking backfire? For either candidate ...

(JS)

The presidential candidates are scrapping to show the American people they're on the ball this morning in reacting to the nation's urgent economic crisis, which could change the tone and direction of the White House contest for the next 46 days.

John McCain began the day with a speech in Green Bay outlining his approach to reforming the country's financial markets; he also more pointedly hammered his rival for having ties to senior members of Fannie and Freddie's former leadership. Barack Obama, meanwhile, decided to pass on a rollout of his proposal to manage the mess, wisely deferring to Treasury Sec. Hank Paulson and President Bush to offer their plans to backstop a flagging economy. Obama instead was scheduled to meet privately with a team of economic advisers that included former Reagan Fed chairman Paul Volcker, former George W. Bush Treasury Sec. Paul O'Neill and Warren Buffett.

This episode undoubtedly changes the tone of the presidential debate. With hundreds of billions of dollars committed to prompting a rebound in the mortgage market, what happens to Obama's promise to bring health insurance to 47M Americans without coverage? What happens to McCain's vow to extend the Bush tax cuts? The candidates will have to not only react in real time to a complicated, nuanced shift in the country's financial situation, but they'll also have to account for the fate of some of their more expensive campaign promises. Who will win voters' trust?

Full list of Obama meeting participants available after the jump. Also, the text of McCain's WI speech.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

John McCain saying SEC chair Chris Cox should be fired generated a fair amount of discussion last night:

New York Observer's Kornacki: "Firing the SEC commissioner, this is textbook. ... How do you separate yourself in 2006 from George W. Bush and the Iraq war? You call for Donald Rumsfeld's resignation. How do you separate yourself from George W. Bush in 2008 in the economy? You call for the SEC commissioner's resignation. That's a pretty transparent attempt there" ("Election Center," CNN, 9/18).

Newsweek's Fineman: "He was just flat out wrong about that. The independent commissioners don't serve at the pleasure of the president. That's sort of what he meant to say, but it was wrong. The other thing is that of all the villains that people want to string up around here, Chris Cox, I don't think is generally considered to be one of them. He stopped giving the laws that he has had to administer, to done a fairly good job. So, it was odd on several levels. And McCain is all over the lot" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 9/18).

CNN's Henry: "A lot of Americans don't even know that Christopher Cox is the SEC chairman. Why would they know that? It's sort of alphabet soup in Washington. It reminds you of a couple days ago, when John McCain was saying let's appoint a 9/11-style commission to deal with this mess, another Washington solution. He does better in terms of connecting with voters out here on the stump when he talks about issues like taxes. ... Talking about Washington stuff, agencies, the SEC, et cetera, that makes him sound a little bit more like a creature of Washington, instead of somebody who is saying he could shake up Washington" ("Election Center," 9/18).

After the jump, catching up with Palin, Biden and Bill Clinton.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

The AFL-CIO is dropping a new mailer that highlights John McCain's statement earlier this week that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong." The federation is targerting 1M union households in four critical general election battlegrounds: MI, OH, PA and WI.

The mail piece contrasts McCain's picture of the economy with the nation's gloomy fiscal news: 605K jobs were lost in 2008, 2M homes were foreclosed, gas is $4/gallon and the nation has a $9.7T national debt. Part of a broad effort to sway working-class swing voters (Reagan Democrats and independents) in the Rust Belt states, the mailer will be underscored with a mass e-mail campaign pushing the same message to 500K.

"Working people are in crisis right now, yet John McCain is so out of touch with what's going on that he still says the fundamentals of our economy are strong," said AFL-CIO Political Director Karen Ackerman. "We simply can't afford four more years of the McCain-Bush economic agenda, an agenda that's fundamentally wrong for working families."

This fall, the AFL-CIO is running its largest grassroots mobilization ever, a $53M effort to help Barack Obama win the White House. More than 250,000 AFL-CIO volunteers are expected to:

* knock on 10M doors

* send 25M mail pieces

* make 70M phone calls, and

* deliver 20M leaflets to worksites.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

ESPANOLA, NM – Despite the economic crisis facing the country and the turmoil in the markets, this is not a time for fear or panic but for leadership and resolve, Barack Obama said today, telling the audience at a rally he would announce new plans tomorrow for dealing with the economy.

Both campaigns have been scrambling to stay out in front on economic issues this week as news of bank failures and bailouts have roiled financial markets worldwide.

Obama has consistently argued that John McCain’s response to the crisis on Wall Street has been inadequate and that he was now trying to reverse course on issues like market regulation because it was politically expedient. It's all part of his campaign’s continued efforts to convince worried voters that the Illinois senator will be a better steward of the economy than his rival.

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has a survey out today that presents a hodgepodge of information about the presidential candidates, but the most amusing nugget comes in the form of a word association exercise about the veep candidates.

Sarah Palin's leading descriptor? Inexperienced. Dem rival Joe Biden's top adjective? Experienced.

So five people astutely noted that Palin is a woman. Another five called Biden an idiot. Go figure.

Read more here.

New John McCain ad to be televised nationally, notes that former Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines advised Barack Obama's campaign on housing and mortgage matters -- and that the Dem nom "has no background in economics." Wait, does McCain? No. None. Zip. Zero. By his own admission.

AKRON, OH - Fired up in a room full of union members, Joe Biden angrily defended his ticket's tax plan and his claim that tax hikes for the rich are patriotic, while urging fellow Democrats to stand their ground on what he said was a values debate.

Biden, speaking to members of the Laborers International Union of North America, began by saying that there is "no disagreement" between John McCain and Barack Obama on the need for tax cuts. The real issue, he said, is who benefits.

"Catholic social doctrine, as I was taught it is, you take care of people who need the help the most," he said. "Now it'd be different if you could make the case to me that by giving this tax cut to the very wealthy, everybody else was going to be better off. We saw what happened the last eight years when we gave that tax cut."

He then explained his statement, first made at a rally in Sarasota, FL, two weeks ago, that asking the wealthiest Americans to accept tax hikes would be patriotic. And he added that the tax rates would still be lower than they were under the Reagan administration.

"I tell you Democrats," Biden said, gritting his teeth. "Don't you step down from anybody telling you that we don't value, we don't have American values. ... I want this debate about values! I want this debate about American values."

Biden was speaking before a very friendly audience, but urged them to spread the word, acknowledging that even some Democrats remain wary of Obama.

"Say you're right, last eight years worked pretty well, didn't they?" he said. "How do you feel, small businessman, about last eight years. How do you feel, white-collar worker, about the last eight years. ... This is not about Democrat or Republican. It's about the facts."

And another John McCain spot courts working-class voters frustrated by job loss, high gas prices and the general tumult in the markets.

New John McCain ad running ... in ... MI. "Michigan families depend on the auto industry ... " The GOP plan? Offshore drilling, tax credits to boost sales of clean vehicles, loans to upgrade assembly lines.

In today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have increased their lead over John McCain and Sarah Palin by 1%. The Dem ticket is once again ahead 46-42%, up from 45-42% one day ago; Obama/Biden had led 46-42% on 9/15.

Obama/Biden maintained their advantage among Inds (still 8%) and men (still 1%). The Dems now lead among women by 6% (vs. 5% on 9/16) and Dems by 77% (vs. 76% on 9/16). McCain/Palin now lead GOPers by 80%, down slightly from their 82% margin in the previous survey.

Today's release saw a rise in the number of people who say the economy is the important issue facing the U.S. With recent developments on Wall Street, 44% of RVs now feel the economy is the top issue, including 41% of Inds. Just one day ago, 40% of RVs and 35% of Inds said the same.

The economy has ranked as the top issue since the inaugural Diageo/Hotline tracker, but has never been named by more than 41% of respondents. As recently as 9/13, only 36% named the economy as the top issue.

Meanwhile, 44% still say they believe Obama would do the best job handling the economy, and 39% name McCain -- identical figures to yesterday's release.

Today's survey, conducted 9/15-17 by FD, surveyed 912 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

The numbers.

CO
McCain, 44%, Obama, 45%

FL
McCain, 44%, Obama, 44%

NM
McCain, 42%, Obama, 49%

OH
McCain, 42%, Obama, 41%

VA
McCain, 48%, Obama, 41%

John McCain today in Cedar Rapids, IA, said Barack Obama has done nothing to help the nation avert fiscal crisis:

"Senator Obama talks a tough game on the financial markets but the facts tell a different story. He took more money from Fannie and Freddie than any Senator but the Democratic chairman of the committee that regulates them. He put Fannie Mae's CEO who helped create this disaster in charge of finding his Vice President. Fannie's former General Counsel is a senior advisor to his campaign. Whose side do you think he is on? When I pushed legislation to reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Senator Obama was silent. He didn't lift a hand to avert this crisis."

McCain and Sarah Palin also raised the specter of Obama's one-time patriotism problem by criticizing Joe Biden for saying paying taxes is patriotic.

Palin:

“To the rest of America that’s not patriotism. Raising taxes is about killing jobs and hurting small businesses and making things worse.”

McCain:

"While Senator Obama and Congressional leaders don't know what to think about the current crisis, we know what their plans are for the economy. Today Senator Obama's running mate said that raising taxes is patriotic. Raising taxes in a tough economy isn't patriotic. It's not a badge of honor. It's just dumb policy."

McCain's full prepared remarks are available after the jump. Note that he called for the creation of a mortgage and financial institutions trust, or MFI, to "identify institutions that are weak and take remedies to strengthen them before they become insolvent." And he said he would fire Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Al Gore is linking up with Move On to help raise coin for three Dem Senate candidates -- Al Franken in MN, Kay Hagan in NC and Mark Udall in CO -- who the former veep believes are "clean-energy heroes."

Full Gore solicitation letter available after the jump.

In an interview with the Omaha World Journal, Chuck Hagel, that rebel Republican and rumored one-time contender for a spot on the Democratic ticket, makes THE point about GOP veep nom Sarah Palin:

"She doesn't have any foreign policy credentials," Hagel said in an interview. "You get a passport for the first time in your life last year? I mean, I don't know what you can say. You can't say anything."

The Los Angeles Times is reporting that the city's former Republican mayor, Richard Riordan, today endorsed Barack Obama:

"He's extremely bright and energetic, and he's a guy who gets things done," said Riordan, who was a successful venture capitalist before he was elected mayor in 1993, serving two terms.

Riordan criticized John McCain's past support for financial deregulation, saying it helped trigger the mortgage crisis and subsequent economic downturn: "There's nothing in his background that shows he's a person who can understand these complicated economic issues, or shows that he is entrepreneurial enough to bring about change."

Beginning today, the good folks here at the Watergate are releasing a critical series of surveys -- officially called the Allstate/National Journal Battleground States Poll -- that will examine the state of the presidential race in the swing states targeted by the candidates.

Expect four rounds of polls in all. Today we are releasing surveys in five “red to blue states” -- states that President Bush carried in 2004 that Barack Obama is heavily targeting in 2008. The states are CO, FL, NM, OH and VA.

Next Thursday, we are releasing surveys in three “blue to red states” -- states that Sen. John Kerry carried in 2004 that John McCain is heavily targeting in 2008. Those states are: NH, PA and MI.

We will release a second round of red to blue and blue to red states in October (though the exact list of states could vary).

The two key factors in tension in the states in our first round of polling is widespread dissatisfaction with Bush’s job performance (even though he carried all of them in 2004 and all of them except New Mexico in 2000) that is generating a desire for change balanced against a prevailing sense in each state that McCain is more prepared than Obama to be president. (Only in New Mexico does Obama come even close on that question.)

Check in later for all the details.

New Republican National Committee Spanish-language radio spot running in Miami just in time for Barack Obama's visit to the Sunshine State this weekend.

Critical line:

"When Hispanics needed a friend in Congress during the immigration debate… Who stood up? Who spoke out? John McCain."

Full script -- English and Spanish -- available after the jump.

New John McCain spot running nationally says that the big government programs Barack Obama will impose will only hamper an economic rebound.

Narrator: "Obama and his liberal congressional allies want a massive government, billions in spending increases, wasteful pork. And we would pay painful income taxes, skyrocketing taxes on life savings, electricity and home heating oil. Can your family afford that?"

Script available after the jump.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

FNC's Sean Hannity sat down with Sarah Palin in Cleveland, OH, for her first cable interview. Part one aired on "Hannity & Colmes."

Hannity: "Senator [Barack] Obama yesterday was attacking Senator [John] McCain for saying that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. Do you believe that the fundamentals of our economy are strong?"

Palin: "Well, it was an unfair attack on the verbiage that Senator McCain chose to use. The fundamentals that he was having to explain afterwards, he means our workforce. He means the ingenuity of the American people and, of course, that is strong and that is the foundation of our economy. ... The economy is a mess. And there have been abuses on Wall Street. And that adversely affects main street and it's that commitment that John McCain is articulating today, getting in there, reforming the way that Wall Street has been allowed to work."

Palin, asked if it was right to bail out AIG: "I do not like the idea, though, of taxpayers being used to bail out these corporations. Today, with AIG, important call there, though, because of the construction bonds and the insurance carrier duties of AIG. But, first and foremost, taxpayers cannot be looked to as the bailout, as the solution to the problems on Wall Street."

After the jump, Palin on Tina Fey's performance, McCain/Obama reveal personal flaws on CBS and Donald Trump makes an endorsement.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

GRAND RAPIDS, MI - John McCain's campaign fielded a conference call this afternoon with two Republican U.S. representatives from this battleground state, both of whom commended the GOP nominee for earlier statements that they said indicated his support for $25B in government loans for the ailing auto industry.

While visiting a GM plant in Orion, MI, this morning McCain stressed the need for new innovation in automobile design and loans for new factories.

"I'm here to send a message to Washington and to Wall Street," McCain said. "We're not going to leave the workers here in Michigan hung out to dry while we give billions in taxpayers' dollars to Wall Street. We're going to take care of the workers. The workers, they're the ones that deserve our help. It's time to get our auto industry back on its feet. And it's time for a new generation of cars and for loans to build the facilities to make them."

McCain expressed skepticism about the need for the automotive industry loan proposal circulating in Congress when he was asked about it at his last press conference with national media on 8/13 in Birmingham, MI.

"I worry a little bit about us predicting failure on the part of the auto makers when they are striving mightily," McCain said then, adding later that, "at the moment for us to somehow predict doom of auto industry in America, certainly the Big Three, I think is frankly not timely at this time, and I don't want it to be a self fulfilling promise."

CNN released five battleground polls today showing the presidential race as tight as a can be.

OH: Barack Obama, 49%, John McCain, 47%

NC: McCain, 48%, Obama, 47%

WI, Obama: 50%, McCain, 47%

FL: Obama, 48%, McCain, 48%

IN: McCain, 51%, Obama, 45%

Rick Davis, John McCain's campaign manager, issued this statement a few moments ago about reports that Sarah Palin's personal email has been hacked:

"This is a shocking invasion of the Governor's privacy and a violation of law. The matter has been turned over to the appropriate authorities and we hope that anyone in possession of these emails will destroy them. We will have no further comment."

ICYMI, some peripheral political happenings of the day:

-- Lynn Forester de Rothschild, who backed Hillary Clinton during the primary and was a member of the Democratic National Committee's Platform Committee, endorsed John McCain today. The GOPer's campaign announced that she would campaign for McCain through Election Day.

"In an election as important at this, we must choose the candidate who has a proven record of bipartisanship and reforming government, and that's John McCain," Rothschild said. "We can't afford a president who lacks experience and judgment and has never crossed party lines to work for meaningful reform. Amid tough economic times and foreign policy concerns, we need someone who is ready to lead. Although I am a Democrat, I recognize that it's more important to put country ahead of party and that's why I support John McCain."

-- HRC and Joe Biden are getting together tonight 8 p.m. ET for a Web video conversation about women's issues. Click here to participate.

-- And People Magazine toasts Michelle Obama on it's Best Dressed list and explores Sarah Palin's style, too. Check out their style details after the jump.

Gawker has a screen grab of Sarah Palin's personal email account. TIME's Scherer reports that the Gawker write-up "is not a hoax."

New Barack Obama spot out this afternoon -- "Sold Us Out" -- accuses John McCain of supporting tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas. The ad will run in PA and other, you got it, "key states."

Barack Obama today pushed back hard on John McCain's earlier stump statement in OH: "The word's going out, my friends: The old-boy network, the pork-barrelers, the earmarkers, my friends, the word is, `Change is coming,'" McCain said. "There's two mavericks coming to Washington, and we're going to shake it up."

Check out Obama's retort:

Obama's full prepared remarks are available after the jump.

CLEVELAND - Sarah Palin said today she is "disappointed that taxpayers are called upon to bail out another one" in response to the AIG loan by the Federal Reserve.

Before sipping coffee at Karl's Inn at the Bannister's, she said the decision by the Federal Reserve was "understandable but very very disappointing that taxpayers are called upon for another one."

Palin and husband Todd joined 10 diners who were drinking coffee and eating breakfast. She introduced herself to diners as "Sarah" and apologized for interrupting their meal.

It was her first impromptu campaign stop since campaigning independently. She asked if the pool reporters were getting lonely in the back of the plane and invited them to "come on up" to the front. No word yet on whether the campaign will oblige.

(NBC/NJ's MATTHEW BERGER)

The latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, released this a.m., shows Obama/Biden leading McCain/Palin 45-42%. In yesterday's release, Obama/Biden led 46-42%.

The Dems took their first lead among Inds today, a group they now carry 43-35%. On 9/15, McCain/Palin led Inds 40-37%, and as recently as 9/13, the GOPers held a 16% advantage.

Balancing this gain were loses among Dems and GOPers. Obama/Biden now lead Dems by 76%, down from 79% on 9/15. Meanwhile McCain/Palin improved their lead among GOPers from 77% to 82%.

Looking at gender, the Dem ticket maintained its 1% margin among men in today's survey, and now leads women by 5% (down 2% from one day ago).

In yesterday's tracking poll, Obama held the largest lead on handling the economy in the survey for either candidate thus far. Today, however, his 11% margin has fallen to 5%. Meanwhile 40% of respondents say the economy is the most important issue facing the U.S. today.

Today's survey, conducted 9/14-16 by FD, surveyed 913 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

John McCain's "Foundation" running nationally:

And Barack Obama's "Plan For Change:"

The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project has a report out today noting that the WH candidates have spent a whopping $15M since the conventions wrapped the first week in September.

Other tidbits:

-- Almost all (97 percent) of the airings in support of Barack Obama were sponsored by the candidate, with the remaining three percent paid for by the Democratic National Committee. On the other side, the majority of John McCain's ads (57 percent) were run in cooperation between the candidate and the party, with the remainder aired by the McCain campaign.

-- This year's battleground map is looking ever more like 2004's battleground map. And McCain is outspending Obama in the contest's 10 key states, $4,496,000 $3,564,000.

-- Total spending, however, since the conventions is almost even: McCain spent $7,803,000 to Obama's $7,768,000.

After the jump, check out the project's report of candidate spending by state. Note that McCain has sunk more ad dollars into CO, IA, NH, NM, NV, PA and OH. Obama, meanwhile, is spending bigger bucks in FL, MI, MO, NC and VA.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), author of the action that created Constitution Day, is scheduled to give a speech today honoring the importance of the document on the Senate floor today. Byrd is expected to say the Constitution’s words “are as critically important to every American as instructions on how to operate a lifeboat are to the passengers of a storm tossed ship.”

Byrd , who famously carries around a copy of the document in his pocket, hopes that today, American’s “will take just a few minutes, read, and to think about our remarkable Constitution. Keep it close to your heart, as I do.”

(NORA MCALVANAH)

With the AIG bailout announcement, the economy continued to the big topic on TV. There was also a lot of reaction to statements made by two John McCain advisers.

"Countdown" aired NBC's Mitchell's conversation with McCain Victory chair Carly Fiorina.

Mitchell: "Can I just ask you about an interview, I believe you did this today on KTRS Radio, the 'McGraw-Hill Show,' and you were asked whether Sarah Palin has the experience to run a major company like Hewlett-Packard which you did and you said, 'No, I don't. But you know what? That's not what she's running for.'"

Fiorina: "Well, I don't think John McCain could run a major corporation. I don't think Barack Obama could run a major corporation. I don't think Joe Biden could run a major corporation. But on the other hand, a major corporation is not the same as being the president or the vice president of the United States. It is a fallacy to suggest that the country is like a company" (MSNBC, 9/16).

CNN's J. King: "They have not run a major corporation but what is the United States government? It is the biggest business, if you will. It requires executive decisions like that. ... Yes, she said Obama and Biden aren't qualified either. But at a time they are trying to make this compelling economic argument to seize control of the biggest issue before the American people, to have ... a senior economic advisor -- although she volunteers for the campaign -- say that you're not qualified has them furious. And she was told to cancel some other interviews she had scheduled today, and I'm told you won't see much of Carly Fiorina on TV, at least for a while, because of their disappointment on this. ... This was another miscommunication from the McCain campaign at a pivotal time" ("AC 360," 9/16).

Mitt Romney: "Having been a governor and the CEO of a state, I know it's real tough to run a state effectively and I know it's real tough also to be a CEO. Both are very tough jobs. And I believe that John McCain, with 25 years of experience in the Senate, and Sarah Palin actually having run a city and run a state, they have the experience it takes to run the government and they have the experience it takes to run a company. I'd be happy to hire them" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 9/16).

More after the jump, including Obama on the economy and a one-on-one with Todd Palin.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Katie Couric scores the third interview with Sarah Palin. Set to air 9/29, according to TV Newser. John McCain will join for some of the conversation.

A GOP WH nominee has not carried NJ since '88, but new polls out in the last week show an increasingly competitive contest there. Four surveys conducted since the GOP convo show Barack Obama's lead dwindling to as little as 3%.

A Quinnipiac Univ. poll of NJ LVs released this a.m. shows Obama and Joe Biden leading John McCain and Sarah Palin 48-45%, down from Obama's 51-41% margin on 8/10. The poll, conducted 9/10-14 shows McCain/Palin up 4% among Inds, 24% among non-college whites and 8% among white women.

Also out this a.m. is a Monmouth Univ./Gannett New Jersey poll of LVs which shows Obama leading McCain 49-41% -- exactly on the poll's +/- 4.0% margin of error. And while Obama's 8% lead is more than his advantage in the Quinnipiac poll, it is down from his 14% lead in the Monmouth survey completed 7/21. The poll, fielded 9/11-14, shows the nominees running even among Inds, as well as men.

Over the weekend, the Bergen Record/Research 2000 showed Obama/Biden leading 50-41%, and Marist College showed Obama/Biden up 48-45%. Both surveys queried LVs prior to Quinnipiac and Monmouth -- the Record from 9/9-11 and Marist from 9/5-8.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Co-opting his Dem rival's "Enough!" line, John McCain released a TV spot this afternoon promising to rebound a flagging economy through Wall Street reform and with "new rules for fairness and honesty."

"Your savings, your jobs ... I'll keep them safe," he says in the nationally-run ad that reflects a new populist tone.

Over the last 24 hours, the economy has, of course, dominated the political conversation, much to the glee and relief of Dems looking to halt the frenzy of Sarah Palin coverage. Conventional wisdom has dictated that as the economy rises again as the most pressing issue of the day, the political advantage shifts to Barack Obama, who routinely performs better on the issue in polls, though his advantage has narrowed somewhat post conventions.

But a look at John McCain's response to the market downfall and the swirl of related news shows a marked evolution in the GOPer's language -- from reformer to crisis herald to populist, a position that could moderate Obama's edge on the issue. That said, the McCain camp seems to be struggling to find its footing, and the candidate has been forced to eat some of his words, and, gulp, utter others that seem positively Democratic in nature.

A timeline:

Monday a.m.
McCain: "Fundamentals Of Our Economy Are Strong"

Monday, too
McCain releases "Crisis" ad in an effort to underscore his understanding of the economic struggles of middle class Americans. A narrator says he'll protect your life savings. Tougher rules on Wall Street. No special interest giveaways.

Tuesday a.m.
Obama releases ad reminding voters of McCain's assertion that the nation's economic fundamentals are strong.

Populist McCain emerges
Today on the stump in Tampa: "The working people of this state and this nation are the most innovative, the hardest working, the best skilled, most productive, most competitive in the world. This foundation of our economy, the American worker, is strong but it has been put at risk by the greed and mismanagement of Wall Street and Washington. The top of our economy is broken. We have seen self interest, greed, irresponsibility and corruption undermine the hard work of the American people. It is time to set things right, and I promise to get the job done as your president."

Wait, so now the economy is "broken?" Can the fundamentals be strong and the economy broken? Since when does McCain -- who was against an extension of the Bush tax cuts before he was for it, who has promised to cut the corporate tax rate -- rail against greed?

Seems like a confused message. One that perhaps allows Team Obama to press rewind on McCain's remark last week to PBS' Judy Woodruff and TIME's Rick Stengel that in Washington, he's somewhat "divorced" from the everyday concerns of Americans.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Carly Fiorina, a key surrogate for John McCain's campaign, asserted this morning that Sarah Palin doesn't have the experience to run a major company such as Hewlett-Packard.

"No, I don't," responded Fiorina when asked as much by an on-air personality for St. Louis' KTRS Radio. "But you know what? That's not what she's running for."

But then the former HP chief dug herself a deeper hole during an interview on MSNBC, attempting to explain away the Palin remark by saying, hey, McCain couldn't run HP either. "I don't think John McCain could run a major corporation ... "

Barack Obama's camp jumped into the melee. “If John McCain’s top economic advisor doesn’t think he can run a corporation, how on Earth can he run the largest economy in the world in the midst of a financial crisis? Apparently even the people who run his campaign agree that the economy is an issue John McCain doesn’t understand as well as he should,” said Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor.

Is the subtext here that Fiorina believes only she could do both? Hate to psychoanalyze, but ...

Last we'll see of CF for awhile?

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

In today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Obama/Biden leads McCain/Palin 46-42% -- the largest advantage for either ticket in the survey thus far. Previously, Obama/Biden led 44-43% in yesterday's release and 45-43% on 9/13.

Among Inds, the Dem ticket continues to gain ground. McCain/Palin's lead among Ind RVs, who represent one-fifth of respondents, now stands at just 3% -- down from 10% on 9/14 and 16% on 9/13.

Meanwhile, each ticket still maintains a commanding lead among their party faithful. McCain/Palin leads GOPers 84-7% (down slightly from 86-7% on 9/14), while Obama/Biden leads Dems 85-6% (up slightly from 84-7% on 9/14).

Obama has also now taken a sizeable lead on U.S. energy policy -- respondents feel he would best handle those issues by a 50-38% margin. This 12% advantage is the largest lead for either candidate on the question; previously, the largest lead had been Obama by 4% in yesterday's release.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Hard-hitting Barack Obama speech in Golden, CO today in which the Dem says John McCain isn't to blame for the economic problems facing the nation but that his economic philosophy should be faulted.

"It’s the philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down. It’s the philosophy that says even common-sense regulations are unnecessary and unwise. It’s a philosophy that lets Washington lobbyists shred consumer protections and distort our economy so it works for the special interests instead of working people."

Full prepared remarks available after the jump.

Barbra Streisand is performing tonight in Beverly Hills to raise money for Barack Obama's campaign.

AP: "The Oscar-winning singer and actress was to perform Tuesday night on Obama's behalf in Beverly Hills. It was to be a two-step evening with a reception and dinner costing $28,500 a person followed by a later event featuring Streisand at $2,500 a ticket.

"Obama was flying to Los Angeles after an appearance Tuesday morning in a Denver suburb."

Your Streisand bonus ... "My Man" (1975)

New RNC radio ad begins running tomorrow in Las Vegas and Elko, NV. Hits Barack Obama and Joe Biden for their earmark requests.

Narrator: "You decide who represents change. John McCain and Sarah Palin will shake up Washington."

Listen here.

New Barack Obama ad running in key states knocks John McCain for saying yesterday that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

A new group debuted in Facebookland last week that's gaining fans by the day -- '1,000,000 Strong Against Sarah Palin.' Founded 9/7, it already has 30,825 members.

It's stated purpose: "For those of you completely dumbfounded by John McCain's selection of the trigger-happy, homophobic, anti-abortion, animal-killing, political featherweight, Sarah Palin, as his running mate. Palin has to be one of the biggest political ploys in history.

"Whether you are a Republican, Democrat or Independent, we can all agree on one thing, Sarah Palin is in no way fit to come anywhere NEAR the West Wing."

The left pushes back. Lots of young voters on the member list. Not unexpected, of course, given the medium. Site features photos of Palin holding a gun and in her beauty queen days, among others, and a photo of a voter holding a sign that reads: "Bush in a skirt."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Last night's TV was dominated by the financial crisis on Wall Street, with a lot of talk focusing on John McCain saying "the fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Washington Examiner's Sammon: "On a day when the DOW drops 500 points, it's probably not smart to get caught saying the economy is fundamentally sound. Granted, he had caveats. ... [But] this doesn't help. McCain is best when he's talking about national security or Sarah Palin. When we're talking about the economy, that's not a good day for him. His challenge is to pivot and say, 'OK, the economy is not that great. What would you rather have, a tax hike cut or tax cut in a weak economy?' That's how he can win" ("Special Report," FNC, 9/15).

McCain Victory chair Carly Fiorina: "If you play the whole thing, instead of just the sound bite that the [Barack] Obama campaign wants you to hear, he also said the economy is in crisis, he talked about the fact that this is a unprecedented occurrence on Wall Street and that Americans are worried about staying in their homes and keeping their jobs and paying for their food and fuel. ... What he meant was that the fundamentals of what the American workers produce. American workers remain the most productive in the world, the most innovative in the world, the most entrepreneurial in the world. This is not the fault of the foundation of our economy, which is American workers and American families. It is the fault of Wall Street's combination of lack of transparency and greed; it is the fault of regulators who didn't do their job in Washington. ... And it is the ... the fault as well of Congress who let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get totally out of control" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 9/15).

GOP strategist Ed Rollins: "Neither of these candidates has a clue about, A, what's going on in the country or how to get us out of it. ... They both put out economic plans that were sort of the litmus test of the Democrats and the litmus test of the Republicans. We are in a very serious crisis and unless they address it, whoever if I was running either one of the campaigns which I'm not, I would get the best economic minds and say let's analyze the problem and then try to find some solutions to move forward" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 9/15).

After the jump, Obama on the economy, Troopergate heats up and Meghan McCain braves "LKL."

(KATHERINE LEHR)

MoveOn.org is launching a new ad this week that takes aim at John McCain's ties to lobbyists. “My Friends” features clips of McCain uttering his trademark salutation "my friends" while pointing to the "177 lobbyists who have ties to his campaign."

Sources say MoveOn has purchased over $200K on national cable and will begin airing the ad later this week.

The ad buy comes on the heels of a joint DNC-Barack Obama camp effort-- complete with a new ad and website-- aimed at showcasing McCain’s lobbying connections.

(NORA MCALVANAH)

The National Review's Byron York takes a look at Joe and Jill Biden's charitable giving, and the results, well, aren't all that impressive. Think spare change. Total over 10 years: $3,690.

Per the NR, here is a chart of the Bidens’ giving for the years covered by the tax returns:

Adjusted
Gross Income Charity

1998 $215,432 $195

1999 $210,797 $120

2000 $219,953 $360

2001 $220,712 $360

2002 $227,811 $260

2003 $231,375 $260

2004 $234,271 $380

2005 $321,379 $380

2006 $248,459 $380

2007 $319,853 $995

Total $2,450,042 $3,690

A spokesman for Biden, David Wade, tells York that says "the figures on Biden’s tax return do not reflect the true extent of his giving."

Wade: “The charitable contributions claimed by the Bidens on their tax returns are not the sum of their annual contributions to charity,” Wade said in a statement to NRO. “Like most regular churchgoers, they contribute to their church, and they also contribute to their favorite causes with their time as well as their checkbooks, whether it’s [Jill] Biden’s volunteer work with military families or the Biden breast-health initiative, or the way in which the family pitched in driving supplies to the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina, or the ways Sen. Biden has supported charities that help women, police, and veterans.”

More from Wade: “Like a lot of families that put three kids through college and have an aging parent move in with them, the Bidens aren’t divorced from the realities of everyday life,” Wade says. Still, Wade continues, “finding ways to give back is important to them.”

John McCain's camp has yet to release Palin's tax returns.

In the um, er, growing ever more uncomfortable with this conversation category ...

“Sarah knows how to field-dress a moose. I know how to castrate a calf. Neither of those things has anything at all to do with this election. But since we know so much about Sarah’s special skills, I wanted to make sure you knew about mine too."

-- Iowa Lt. Gov. Patty Judge talking to Iowapolitics.com

Full transcript of the Treasury Sec.Henry Paulson's earlier Q and A with reporters is available after the jump. Provided by the White House.

Here's a snippet:

Paulson: "Your question says, "Where is the root of the problem?" And I think I've consistently said that when we looked at our financial institutions the root of the problem lies in this housing correction. And until we stem the housing correction, until the biggest part of that is behind us and we have more stability in housing prices, we're going to continue to have turmoil in the financial markets.

"And that is why the actions with respect to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are so extraordinarily important, not only to our capital markets, but to making sure we have plenty of financing in housing, because that, in my judgment, is going to be the key to turning the corner here."

For the second consecutive day, Barack Obama and Joe Biden lead John McCain and Sarah Palin in the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. The Dem ticket is up 44-43%; Obama/Biden had been up 45-43% in yesterday's release.

The Dems now lead by 6% among women, down from their 9% margin yesterday. McCain/Palin, meanwhile, leads men by 4% -- identical to their lead on 9/13.

The GOP ticket's edge among Republicans also held constant; McCain/Palin again hold a 86-7% advantage. Obama/Biden leads among Dems 84-7%, a slight drop from their 85-7% lead on 9/13. Among Inds, McCain/Palin's lead fell from 16% in yesterday's release to 10% today.

Today's survey, conducted 9/12-14 by FD, surveyed 906 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

For subscribers, more information can be found in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Progressive Accountability is holding a private screening tonight of "Third Term," a documentary that aims to tie John McCain's views to George W. Bush's policies on all the critical issues facing the nation, including the Iraq war, the economy, health care and energy.

Third Term features interviews with Rand Beers of the National Security Network; Ellen Malcolm of Emily's List; Paul Waldman of the Media Matters Action Network; Larry Korb of the Center for America Progress Action Fund; Thea Lee of the AFL-CIO; and Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation. It's narrated by Paul Begala.

Most notable, perhaps, is that the film has been scored by Grammy-award winning producer/composer Art Hodge, best known for his work on the soundtrack of "Fight Club."

The movie will be released wide 9/24 via a combination of theater showings and DVD distribution by progressive groups. For more information about the project, visit Third-Term.com.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

ST. CLAIR SHORES, MI - In the first major speech since he accepted the vice presidential nomination in August, Joe Biden said that the John McCain he once knew has been replaced by a new man who should be called "Bush 44."

"Folks, we've seen this movie before," Biden said, reminding voters what George W. Bush had promised reform and a new tone in Washington as a candidate, but failed to deliver. "And we know, the sequel is always worse than the original."

Speaking in Macomb County, known as the heart of Reagan Democratic terrain, Biden focused primarily on the economy, pouncing especially on McCain's earlier remarks that the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

"That's what John said," Biden assured a booing crowd. "He says that, 'We've made great progress economically' in the Bush years. Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, I could walk from here to Lansing, and I wouldn't run into a single person who thought our economy was doing well, unless I ran into John McCain."

At the White House a few moments ago, Treasury Sec. Henry Paulson:

"Our banking system is a safe and a sound one."

As the financial world appears to crumble around us, here's baseline react today from the presidential candidates and their running mates:

-- John McCain thinks the "fundamentals of our economy are strong" and that Barack Obama is unnecessarily alarming the public.

-- Obama, meanwhile, cautions that McCain will offer the same "failed" policies of the last eight years.

-- Joe Biden, in a forceful speech in MI, emphasizes McCain's remark last week that he's "divorced" from real people's problems. (Clip after the jump.)

-- And Sarah Palin, in a turn reminiscent of Bill Clinton's 1992 "feel your pain" pitch, spins a populist line to CO voters. She noted that she's a small business owner, as are her relatives (service station for one and hardware store for another), and Palin said she knows what it takes to make ends meet. Empathy as campaign strategy. She also -- per the latest news of Lehman Brothers' collapse -- said she's glad the government is saying "no to using taxpayer money to bail out another one."

So McCain appears woefully, well, divorced from reality, but Obama seems unable to articulate a clear strategy to start digging the country out of this mess. Obama's proposed $1K middle class tax rebate is a fine thing and would certainly allow a family to buy additional groceries or fill the gas tank, but it does nothing, of course, to fundamentally shift the dynamics of a sinking economy. Yet McCain continues to advocate for an extension of the Bush tax cuts and for corporate income tax cuts. How could he possibly make those points in the homestretch of this campaign given the dramatic turn of events, from Fannie and Freddie to Lehman Brothers to Merrill Lynch and AIG?

"It's the economy, stupid," should be a rallying cry for Dems. It's not working, though. Not yet anyway. Could this week mark a turning point for Obama/Biden? Will the "three terms of failed Bush policies" line finally break through? The very serious and complicated market situation could underscore the party's cry for fresh and seasoned leadership in Washington. As yet, meanwhile, the Dems have been unable to halt Palin's impact on swing voters. The latest spates of dire financial news could help do the trick.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

(After the jump, excerpts of Obama's prepared remarks today in CO. He does respond to McCain's comment today that the economy's fundamentals are strong. "What economy are you talking about?" he's expected to inquire of his GOP rival.)

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

John McCain and Sarah Palin released a new ad this a.m. attempting to assure voters that the GOP duo will manage the nation's economic crisis. "Tougher rules on Wall Street to protect your life savings. No special interest giveaways. Lower taxes to create new jobs. Offshore drilling to reduce gas prices." The ad will air on national television, according to the campaign.

The Obama camp's Bill Burton responds: “John McCain has been in Washington for twenty-six years and hasn’t lifted a finger to reform the regulations that could’ve prevented this crisis. In fact, his campaign is run by some of the very same lobbyists who fought against these regulations and worked to put special interest giveaways in our federal budget. Now he’s proposing $200 billion in tax breaks for the biggest corporations in America but not one penny of relief to more than 100 million Americans who are worried about their life savings and their ability to make their mortgage payments. John McCain buys into the same failed economic theory that landed us in this mess in the first place, and we can’t afford to take a chance on his disturbingly out-of-touch policies at a time when our economy is in crisis."

New Barack Obama spot questions John McCain's tactics, saying the GOPer is running sleazy ads and that "deception is all he has left." Obama's camp says the ad will run on national cable and in key states across the nation.

The McCain camp responds: “As Americans face economic uncertainty, it is clear that Barack Obama would sooner hurl insults than discuss his record of seeking higher taxes during a down economy, opposing additional off-shore drilling to reduce energy prices and voting the partisan line nearly 100 percent of the time. This latest ad by Barack Obama is a desperate effort to move away from talking about his thin, but alarming record on the issues, and it isn’t going to reform Washington or strengthen our economy.” – spokesman Tucker Bounds

Sarah Palin continued to be the talk of the town. Focusing on "gender politics," CBS' "Face the Nation" hosted AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and ex-MA Gov. Jane Swift (R).

Swift, asked if Palin should she be treated any differently than anyone else who is running for public office: "I think that she should absolutely not be treated differently. There shouldn't be a double standard. We shouldn't ask of her questions about her ability to do the job that we wouldn't ask a guy in a similar circumstance. But I think that we also have to acknowledge that, because we've had so few women running for these high-level offices, although this is a great year on that front, that we're also not attuned to hearing women's voices and to seeing them in these positions."

Schultz: "All Sarah Palin is being asked to respond to is whether she's up to the task. And it is absolutely fair game. And all I've seen is her being asked about her background, her experience, what qualifies her to be vice president, and whether she knows anything. So the tough questions that have been asked of Sarah Palin thus far just have been about the fact that she doesn't know anything and isn't ready to be vice president. That's fair game and it has nothing to do with her gender."

More Schultz: "Quite honestly, the interview that I saw and that Americans saw on Thursday and Friday were similar to when I didn't read a book in high school and had to read the cliff notes and phone in my report. She's cliff-noted her performance so far."

After the jump, more on Palin and the general election tone takes a turn for the worse.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Here's the latest wrap of weekend trail happenings and news ...

$66M

Barack Obama's campaign announced that it raised $66M in August, attracting a half a million new donors. The Dem now has more than $77 million on hand, and a total of 2.5M have contributed to the camp, according to a release.

“John McCain says that he’ll take on the special interests and lobbyists, but McCain can’t fix a problem he’s been part of for three decades. The 500,000 new donors to the Obama campaign demonstrate just how strongly the American people are looking to kick the special interests out and change Washington. We are proud of the millions of volunteers and more than 2.5 million donors to the Obama campaign who are contributing to help us deliver the change we need instead of letting John McCain just continue the same failed Bush policies while middle class Americans struggle,” said David Plouffe, campaign manager of Obama for America.

"Family"

The SEIU is spending more $2 million to air a new ad in targeted markets in six battleground states – OH, PA, MI, NM, WI and IA. The ad, titled “Family,” features a mother talking about providing for her family. The spot details the differences on economic issues between Obama and John McCain.

Future Gazing

The Institute for America's Future is launching a print ad campaign challenging candidates and the media to "give us a debate worthy of a great nation in trouble," encouraging Americans to demand a real debate focused on "seven national crises that won’t wait." The first in a seven-week series of "op-ed" print ads will appear Tuesday facing the editorial page of The New York Times. Leaders of the Institute are urging people to take the ads to public meetings, church groups and civic associations. Other ads in the series will focus on global debt and financial crises, health care, public infrastructure, global warming, "increasing Robber Baron corruption" and the Iraq war and the "war on terror."

Spoofing Sarah

Tina Fey made a guest appearance on SNL Saturday evening as Sarah Palin. Spot on impression. Take a look at the Palin/Hillary Clinton pairing, or was it HRC/Palin ... ?

Today's Diageo/Hotline poll shows Obama-Biden leading McCain-Palin 45% to 43%. Yesterday, McCain-Palin were leading 45% to 44%.

One likely reason for the swing: men. In yesterday's poll, McCain was leading among men by 12 pts. Today, it's just 4 pts. Meanwhile, Obama's advantage among women has remained consistent over the last three polls ranging between 8 and 9 pts.

Today's survey, conducted 9/11-13 by FD, is the seventh daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 904 RV sample is 43%D, 34%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

(AMY WALTER)

John McCain and Sarah Palin have recaptured their lead in today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. The GOP ticket now holds a 45-44% advantage over Obama/Biden, a flip-flop from the Dems' 45-44% margin one day ago.

Earlier in the week, in the survey completed 9/10, McCain/Palin led by 2%, while the candidates were tied on 9/9 and 9/7. The GOPers also led 45-44% on 9/8.

Since yesterday's release, McCain/Palin expanded their leads among Inds and men to double-digits. Margins among GOPers, Dems and women meanwhile remained relatively constant:

              Now                   9/9-11
              GOP Ind Dem Men Wom   GOP Ind Dem Men Wom
McCain/Palin  89% 45% 11% 51% 40%   88% 43% 10% 49% 41%     
Obama/Biden    5  35  82  39  48     4  37  83  40  49      
Undec          6  19   7   8  11     7  18   6  10   9  

Today's survey, conducted 9/10-12 by FD, is the sixth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 912 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

The AP is reporting that Todd Palin, husband of the GOP's vice presidential nominee, has been subpoenaed in a state abuse of power investigation involving AK Gov. Sarah Palin.

AP: Republican efforts to delay the probe until after the Nov. 4 election were thwarted when GOP State Sen. Charlie Huggins, who represents Palin's hometown of Wasilla, sided with Democrats. "Let's just get the facts on the table," said Huggins, who appeared in camouflage pants to vote during a break from moose hunting.

Thomas Van Flein, the Palins' private attorney now representing her as governor, did not immediately return calls for comment.

In response, John McCain's campaign released a statement from AK Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, a Republican, who called the investigation -- dubbed Troopergate -- a "smear."

"I'm disappointed by the complete hijacking of what should be a fair and objective process," Parnell said.

Charlie Gibson asked Sarah Palin during the segment of his interview with the AK governor that aired a few moments ago on ABC News if she believes Barack Obama should've selected Hillary Clinton as his running mate.

"I think he's regretting not picking her now, I do," Palin said. "What determination and grit and even grace through some tough shots that were fired her way. She handled those well."

The quest to swing those HRC voters continues ...

Barack Obama is expected to turn out tomorrow for Saturday Night Live's season debut. The burning question, though, is will Tina Fey make a guest appearance as the Alaska guv?

Obama's appearance last fall on SNL:

In the second installment of Charlie Gibson's interview with Sarah Palin, the AK governor insists she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere, according to excerpts of the conversation released this afternoon by ABC News. The interview airs this evening.

CHARLES GIBSON: But it's now pretty clearly documented. You supported that bridge before you opposed it. You were wearing a t-shirt in the 2006 campaign, showed your support for the bridge to nowhere.

SARAH PALIN: It has always been an embarrassment that abuse of the ear form -- earmark process has been accepted in Congress. And that's what John McCain has fought. And that's what I joined him in fighting. It's been an embarrassment, not just Alaska's projects. But McCain gives example after example after example. I mean, every state has their embarrassment.

And more Palin comments about AK earmarks available after the jump.

John McCain spot about immigration reform to run tonight during the ALMA Awards:

John McCain's campaign released a misleading radio spot today touting his support -- and relatedly Sarah Palin's -- for stem cell research. While McCain has broken with many in his party on the issue, Palin has made clear her opposition to the science, which many believe could hold the cures to debilitating diseases such as Parkinson's.

First, check out the carefully worded McCain/Palin ad script:

"They're the original mavericks. Leaders. Reformers. Fighting for real change. John McCain will lead his Congressional allies to improve America's health. Stem cell research to unlock the mystery of cancer, diabetes, heart disease. Stem cell research to help free families from the fear and devastation of illness. Stem cell research to help doctors repair spinal cord damage, knee injuries, serious burns. Stem cell research to help stroke victims. And, John McCain and his Congressional allies will invest millions more in new NIH medical research to prevent disease. Medical breakthroughs to help you get better, faster. Change is coming. McCain/Palin and Congressional allies. The leadership and experience to really change Washington and improve your health."

So the narrator doesn't say plainly that Palin supports stem cell research, but he does wrap the issue-focused ad by noting that "McCain/Palin and congressional allies" will offer the experience to "improve your health."

If Palin ever had to assume the responsibilities of the presidency, however, her position would be markedly different from McCain's. During a 2006 AK gubernatorial debate, Palin was asked for her view on stem sell research: "Well, another hypothetical, because I certainly have not seen it on the docket in our university system, stem cell research. But here again, with a Pro-life position, and its interesting that so many questions revolve around this centeredness I have of respecting life and the potential of every human life, but no, stem-cell research would ultimately end in destruction of life. I couldn’t support (it).”

It's worth noting, too, that the GOP's 2008 platform included strong language opposing "all embryonic stem-cell research, public or private."

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

DOVER, NH – It was supposed to be the day Barack Obama came out swinging at his rival John McCain.

His campaign launched two new ads – one of which appeared to mock McCain’s age and his long career in Washington -- and held a conference call this morning to highlight what it is calling a new stage in the race, one in which the Illinois senator will challenge McCain’s attempts to claim the “change” mantle.

But while he added a few new lines to his usual stump speech at a town hall here today, and made a point of laying out how he differs from McCain, especially on tax policy, the senator lacked the kind of fire expected after his campaign manager sent reporters a memo and surrogates announced the tougher tone. In fact, one audience member asked, on behalf of supporters and campaign donors: “When and how are you going to start fighting back against attack ads and smear campaigns?” The question was greeted with applause.

“Here’s what I can guarantee you: that we are going to be hitting back hard – we have been hitting back hard – but we’re hitting back on the issues that matter to families,” Obama said. "I’m not going to start making up lies about John McCain.”

The senator said he would not be “distracted or dissuaded” from making his case to voters, and yet some Democrats worry that his campaign has been caught flat-footed by McCain’s selection of a young, popular, female governor who has energized their party’s base and drawn the kind of crowds never before seen at the Republican’s rallies. Obama has repeatedly said he wants the election to focus on issues and not on “playing silly games,” but tightening polls suggest his message is not breaking through.

“Our focus is on tax policy. That John McCain leaves a hundred billion people out. I lower taxes, he doesn’t,” Obama said. “When it comes to health care policy, he’s not going to help this family right here. I do. On education he doesn’t have a plan to make college more affordable, I do. On those – you know, those, those are the arguments that I want to make and will be successful. If they lie about us then we will correct the record.”

Barack Obama and Joe Biden today took their first lead in the week-old Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. Obama/Biden now lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 45-44% -- a 3% swing from McCain/Palin's 46-44% lead one day ago. The Dem ticket's increases since yesterday where driven mainly by gains among women and Inds.

Obama/Biden now lead women by 8%, rebuilding a gender gap which had nearly disappeared with their 2% lead in yesterday's release. McCain/Palin meanwhile lead men by 9%, up from their 7% margin on 9/10.

Among Inds, the GOP ticket's lead declined steadily throughout the week and now stands at 6%. That single-digit margin is just half of their 12% lead in yesterday's release and a fraction of their 19% advantage on 9/8. Both tickets remained relatively constant among Dems and GOPers.

McCain's fav ratings also changed significantly among Inds. The GOP nominee dropped from a 64% fav rating on 9/10 to 57% on 9/11; at the same time, his unfav jumped from 29% to 35%. McCain's favs among Inds had been as high as 68% on 9/8.

Today's survey, conducted 9/9-11 by FD, is the fifth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 913 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

For subscribers, more information can be found in today's Hotline.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Rudy Giuliani, Bob Woodward and NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation hosts AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), ex-MA Gov. Jane Swift (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX).

This Week hosts Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), McCain Victory chair Carly Fiorina, ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and a roundtable with George Will, Dem strategist Paul Begala, Time's Jay Carney and ABC's Claire Shipman.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-AK Gov. Tony Knowles (D), AK LG Sean Parnell (R-AK) and Karl Rove. The "Power Player" is Pentagon Memorial Fund pres. Jim Laychak.

Late Edition hosts MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D), Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, Dem strategist Hilary Rosen and Washington Times' Tara Wall.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

We so enjoyed our behind-the-scenes look at the media's reporting during the convos that we decided to continue to snoop from home. Hotline visited CNN's Washington studios last night for a live taping of "Lou Dobbs Independent Convention."

9/11, 6:45 pm ET: CNN DC studios, located behind Union Station on First St. NE

Usually based out of NYC, Lou Dobbs was in Washington to host night four of the five-day indie convo, which began 9/8. Ralph Nader and Bob Barr (sporting boots) were among the guests.

We caught up with Dobbs after the taping, who explained the convo was thought up by CNN pres. Jon Klein.

"It was his idea," Dobbs said. "I said I'd be delighted to do it. We [wanted] to deal with issues throughout this week that the other conventions, and the other candidates, didn't. And to have a little fun, just like a convention. So I get to have a little fun. And raising hell is always fun for me."

Dobbs, on the most memorable part of the week so far: "We would never give you the most memorable, because there's always more to come."

After the jump, more Dobbs, and we get a compliment from Wolf Blitzer.

(RACHELLE DOUILLARD-PROULX/KATHERINE LEHR)

New John McCain Spanish-language ad, to air in CO, NV and NM (battlegrounds each), criticizes his Democratic rival for backing proposals that led to the demise of immigration reform.

English Script For "Which Side Are They On?" (TV:30)

ANNCR: Obama and his Congressional allies say they are on the side of immigrants. But are they? The press reports that their efforts were 'poison pills' that made immigration reform fail. The result: No guest worker program. No path to citizenship. No secure borders. No reform. Is that being on our side? Obama and his Congressional allies ready to block immigration reform, but not ready to lead.

JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

ANNCR: Paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee. Approved by McCain-Palin 2008.

Another hard-hitting John McCain ad ... This one begins with a flutter of camera flashes, smacks Barack Obama for his celebrity but notes that his "star is fading" and so he's "lashed out" at Sarah Palin. He and Joe Biden, a female narrator says, "dismissed her as good looking." Called her a liar. But, the narrator notes, "Gov Sarah Palin proves them wrong every day."

An attack ad that frames the attackees (BO and JB) as the attackers. Pitches Palin as the victim. Wonder, though, if anyone came out as forcefully in defense of Palin's children's privacy as Obama when the family confirmed Bristol Palin's pregnancy?

Here's Obama's quote: "I have said before and I will repeat again: People's families are off limits. And people's children are especially off-limits. This shouldn't be part of our politics. It has no relevance to Gov. Palin's performance as a governor or her potential performance as a vice president. So I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18 and how a family deals with issues and teenage children, that shouldn’t be a topic of our politics."

Hardly dismissive or disrespectful. In fact, I can't summon a single Obama or Biden quote that could be qualified as lashing out. Sure they've questioned how reasonably McCain/Palin can claim the change mantle and noted that Palin was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it. But the ad's assertions reflect neither knock.

The non partisan Factcheck.org analysis of the spot concludes that the McCain/Palin camp is distorting quotes from the Obama team. "It takes words out of context to make it sound as though the Democratic ticket is belittling Palin." The ad's use of rival comments "particularly egregious," the site concludes.

Here's the spot:

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Two new Barack Obama ads running on national cable and in battleground states.

"Real Change"

"Still"
Ah, the Rubik's cube footage ...

Watch Charlie Gibson's interview of Sarah Palin here.

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

The talk of the TV was Sarah Palin's much-anticipated interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson. Gibson will conduct three interviews with Palin. The first interview took place 9/11 and aired on "World News."

Gibson: "Can you look the country in the eye and say 'I have the experience and I have the ability to be not just vice president, but perhaps president of the United States of America?'"

Palin: "I do, Charlie, and on January 20, when John McCain and I are sworn in, if we are so privileged to be elected to serve this country, will be ready. I'm ready."

Palin, asked if she ever traveled outside the U.S. prior to her trip to Kuwait and Germany in '07: "Canada, Mexico, and then, yes, that trip, that was the trip of a lifetime to visit our troops in Kuwait and stop and visit our injured soldiers in Germany. ... It changed my life."

Palin, asked if she has ever met a foreign head of state: "There in the state of Alaska, our international trade activities bring in many leaders of other countries."

Gibson: "I'm talking about somebody who's a head of state, who can negotiate for that country. Ever met one?"

Palin: "I have not and I think if you go back in history and if you ask that question of many vice presidents, they may have the same answer that I just gave you."

After the jump, much more Palin and McCain/Obama service forum performances are reviewed.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

FORT WAINWRIGHT, AK - Gov. Sarah Palin said goodbye to about 4,000 troops bound for Iraq -- including her eldest son -- during a deployment ceremony for the First Striker Brigade.

"You'll be there to defend the innocent from the enemies who planned and carried out and rejoiced in the death of thousands of Americans," she said. "American can never go back to that false sense of security that came before Sept. 11, 2001."

Palin came home yesterday in part for the ceremony, which military officials stressed was planned before she was named to the Republican presidential ticket two weeks ago.

"You could have chosen an easier, more comfortable, certainly safer path," she told the troops. "Instead, you have chosen service."

The ceremony took on added significance because her eldest child, Track, was one of those deploying.

"As we depart today, don't mind us - your parents, your friends, your family - if we allow for a few tears or if we hold you just a little closer once more before you're gone," she said, addressing the troops. "Because we're gonna miss you. We can't help it."

ABC News released excerpts tonight of Charlie Gibson's interview with Sarah Palin, which airs over the next two days and during a special tomorrow evening.

Here's a snippet of Palin on John McCain's VP offer:

"I answered him yes because I have the confidence in that readiness and knowing that you can't blink, you have to be wired in a way of being so committed to the mission, the mission that we're on, reform of this country and victory in the war, you can't blink. So I didn't blink then even when asked to run as his running mate."

And a hint of her hard line on international affairs:

When asked by Gibson if, under the NATO treaty, the U.S. would have to go to war if Russia again invaded Georgia, Palin said:

"Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you're going to be expected to be called upon and help. And we've got to keep an eye on Russia. For Russia to have exerted such pressure in terms of invading a smaller democratic country, unprovoked, is unacceptable."

Kathy Sullivan, the former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairwoman, knows how it feels to be called a pig. And she wasn't the suspected target of some hazy dazy allusion to lipstick on a cochon; she was plainly compared to an actual cochon.

During a 2002 roast of a local Republican office holder, former GOP mayoral candidate Joe Kelly Levasseur reportedly referenced the Democratic Party's popular chairwoman as "fat pig Kathleen Sullivan."

Levasseur, a former mayoral candidate, denied the remark, according to a 5/22/08 report in the Union Leader, noting that he was guilty of a different kind of pig comment: "There will be a future Manchester Republican fundraiser in four, five, six or seven weeks. We are going to have a pig roast, as soon we can capture Kathy Sullivan."

In light of the frenzy about what Barack Obama might've meant when he criticized John McCain's attempts at adopting the Democrats' change theme as putting "lipstick on a pig," Sullivan recalled her related incident this week for On Call. She remembered correctly that she'd brushed off the piggish criticism.

"I weigh 163 pounds. Big deal," she told the UL at the time. "If Joe Kelly Levasseur wants to antagonize every overweight person in New Hampshire, Democrats will welcome all those votes."

Sullivan's tale might offer a caution for a GOP that managed to spin the whole "lipstick on a pig" thing into an attack on Sarah Palin -- and 48 hours of news that bumped Obama's campaign off message. Name calling isn't, of course, exclusive to either party. So what's good for the goose ...

"Having actually been called a fat pig by a Republican who was then promoted to be a city chair and member of the NH GOP state committee, it surprises me that all of a sudden Republicans are looking to make an issue of the use of an old farm saying by Obama," she said. "I don't remember an outpouring of outrage from Judd Gregg or John Sununu!'

(JENNIFER SKALKA)