Allstate/National Journal Battleground Poll
Beginning today, the good folks here at the Watergate are releasing a critical series of surveys -- officially called the Allstate/National Journal Battleground States Poll -- that will examine the state of the presidential race in the swing states targeted by the candidates.
Expect four rounds of polls in all. Today we are releasing surveys in five “red to blue states” -- states that President Bush carried in 2004 that Barack Obama is heavily targeting in 2008. The states are CO, FL, NM, OH and VA.
Next Thursday, we are releasing surveys in three “blue to red states” -- states that Sen. John Kerry carried in 2004 that John McCain is heavily targeting in 2008. Those states are: NH, PA and MI.
We will release a second round of red to blue and blue to red states in October (though the exact list of states could vary).
The two key factors in tension in the states in our first round of polling is widespread dissatisfaction with Bush’s job performance (even though he carried all of them in 2004 and all of them except New Mexico in 2000) that is generating a desire for change balanced against a prevailing sense in each state that McCain is more prepared than Obama to be president. (Only in New Mexico does Obama come even close on that question.)
Check in later for all the details.
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