Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: Mind The Baby Gap
The latest Diageo/Hotline daily tracking poll, released this a.m., shows McCain/Palin leading Obama/Biden 46-44% -- a 2% jump from yesterday's 45-45% tie.
The GOP ticket has pulled nearly even among women and expanded its lead among men. Obama/Biden now leads women by just 2%, while McCain/Palin leads men by 7%.
The Dem ticket led women by 5% on 9/9, while the GOP ticket had a comparable advantage with men. Likewise, on 9/7, the parties enjoyed 13% leads with women and men, respectively.
Looking at party ID, McCain/Palin leads 89-4% among GOPers (up from 88-5% on 9/9) and 45-33% among Inds (down from 47-32% on 9/9); Obama/Biden meanwhile leads 83-12% among Dems (down from 84-9% on 9/9).
Since the initial tracking survey was conducted, McCain/Palin has steadily increased its take among GOPers. The GOP ticket now leads its base by 85% -- up from 83% on 9/9, 81% on 9/8 and 78% on 9/7. At the same time, McCain/Palin's lead among Inds has dipped to 12%; it had been 15% on 9/9 and 19% on 9/8.
Asked which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, 44% of RVs said McCain, while 43% said Obama -- the AZ Sen.'s first lead on the question. Obama had led on the economy by 3%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the first three surveys. What's more, two-fifths (40%) of respondents consider the economy the most important issue facing the U.S. today.
Today's survey, conducted 9/8-10 by FD, is the fourth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 918 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.
For subscribers, more information can be found in today's Hotline.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Why can't these people see that they are cutting their own throats and their children's too? I honestly believe there are some people who rather die than have a black president. Shame!
Guys, it's too early for the real break in the polls. This is likely just a blip. Things will change back during some future news cycle.
Just keep repeating: "It's a 50-50 nation."
Dont worry, Obama is still winning in Russia.
Just keep repeating: McCain = Bush.
Bush and McCain are THE SAME on every issue.
Take health care.
Joe Klein:
John McCain wants to tax your employer-provided health care benefits. He wants to replace those benefits with an insufficient tax credit--$2500 for individuals and $5000 for families (the average cost per family for health insurance is $12000).
...this plan will do little or nothing for those who do not have insurance now--unless they are young and healthy--and it may well hurt a fair number of workers, especially unionized workers, who get gold-plated benefits from their employers.
It will certainly do nothing for families with members who have pre-existing conditions or children with special needs--because it makes no provision to regulate the insurers, forcing them to cover all comers at "community" rates that don't discriminate against the people who need health insurance most.
www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/09/mccains_health_care_tax_increa.html
Why does your sample change every day?
Today the D's went down by 1 and R's went up by 1.
Today's poll: 46-44
42%D, 35%R, 20%I
9/10 poll: 45-45
43%D, 34%R, 21%I.
9/9 poll: 44-44
42%D, 34%R, 20%I
9/7 poll: 44-44
42%D, 34%R, 20%I
It is simply a statistical noise.
Just keep repeating....just keep repeating...
Ethan is a paid saboteur...Ethan is a paid saboteur...Ethan is a paid saboteur....
The big lie is alive and well....That is all.
Chill, chill.
I saw the raw data this morning (sorry, I lost the link), and people over 65 are insanely over-represented. I think 5% of those polled were under 30. Fuggettaboutit.
And don't forget the cell phone and Bradley effects. Polls are wrong this year.
I find it amasing that people figured Palin was a great pick before they even knew her or anything about her. Her convention speech was great but it was written for her and all she had to do is read it. She certainly showed what she's made of during her horrible interview. Being a woman doesn't automatically make you a good candidate. Having some knowledge does.
I don't see how in the world these polls could be correct. They must be surveying the koolaid drinkers who listen to that fat drug addict Rush Limbaugh. I can't see any sane person voting for an out-of-touch old guy who openly admits that he doesn't know much about the economy. Then he makes the brilliant revalation that "The fundamentals of the economy are strong." If he wins, that means we've truly become a country of morons.