Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: Signs Of The Recapture
John McCain and Sarah Palin have recaptured their lead in today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. The GOP ticket now holds a 45-44% advantage over Obama/Biden, a flip-flop from the Dems' 45-44% margin one day ago.
Earlier in the week, in the survey completed 9/10, McCain/Palin led by 2%, while the candidates were tied on 9/9 and 9/7. The GOPers also led 45-44% on 9/8.
Since yesterday's release, McCain/Palin expanded their leads among Inds and men to double-digits. Margins among GOPers, Dems and women meanwhile remained relatively constant:
Now 9/9-11
GOP Ind Dem Men Wom GOP Ind Dem Men Wom
McCain/Palin 89% 45% 11% 51% 40% 88% 43% 10% 49% 41%
Obama/Biden 5 35 82 39 48 4 37 83 40 49
Undec 6 19 7 8 11 7 18 6 10 9
Today's survey, conducted 9/10-12 by FD, is the sixth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 912 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)








You are using a 7% ID advantage for Dems, which is wrong. I think Dems are currently having an ID advantage of 5.5%.
I think the Republican turnout will be a little higher, but these reuslts are consistent with other polls. I do think that given the state of the nation that Obama should be up by 10 points. This is very troubling if you support Barack - and the recent state polls seem to be following the trends in the national polls.
America rejected the third most liberal Senator last time. So, what do you guys do, give us the most liberal. What part of America doesn't identify with the loony left do you not understand. If Hillary had been the nominee, she would be up by 15.
Yeah, Fly, because at the Republican oil-lobby-run Department of the Interior having sex and doing cocaine is a perfectly acceptable way to give out millions in oil contracts. Drill, baby, drill! I don't hear you talking much about that. Or the fact that John McCain has ties to two of the lobbyists in the DOI/Oil scandal. Hmm. Why not? You'd rather talk about, let's see, of all the problems in the world... Hmmm.... It's LIBERALS! That's it, yeah. Let's try to demonize the word LIBERAL.
Nice. Cute. Oh, it's just so 1984, Fly.
So keep talking this paltry nonsense, fly.
Everyone in America knows that we have a recession on our hands, we are locked into a senseless war at the cost of $12B per month, and the cost of everything is skyrocketing.
The fact is that the Republican Party has screwed up for far too long.
John McCain and Sarah Palin are running what is clearly the most disingenuous campaign in recent memory and here's Flyover to the rescue using the same old Republican tactic of trying make the word "Liberal" an epithet.
It's just laughable. Between the Liberal bashing and the Republican claim to moral superiority in a free country, the Republican Party is just a hulking empty shell of failed ideas.
It's time to put Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and many more qualified, talented Dems in leadership positions where they are most needed. To solve the problems we face.
It's time to put Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton and many more qualified, talented Dems in leadership positions where they are most needed. To solve the problems we face.
Ethan | 09.13.08 03:17 PM
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Ethan - Hillary should have been the nominee or at least have been selected as VP by Obama.
She wasn't and now we are looking at another in a long line (1980,84,88,00,04)of defeats.
Why would/should strong supporters of Hillary go out of their way for Obama since he did not select or even vet her for VP?
Hillary owes Obama NOTHING and her supporters owe him NOTHING.
I look forward to 2012 when Hillary can return to her rightful place in the White House and repeal the McCain / Palin tax cuts on the wealthy, restore a woman's right to choose, repeal the ban on affirmative action and gay rights and reverse all of the other damage done by the McCain / Palim administration.
All because of the idiots who voted fo Obama in the democratic primary (and the Siper Delegates who selected him as our nominee).
ch, I'm sorry, but you obviously don't know Hillary Clinton. The Hillary Clinton I know -- and I've been following her political career since before it started in 2000 -- will be a huge asset to the Democratic Party, Barack Obama in his campaign for the White House, and a Barack Obama administration, and to all of us if she is in a position of leadership!
I hope you put down your objection to Obama and stand up for the right to Choose, ending the tax cuts for the Rich, the issues you mentioned. B/c on the issues, I know you support the Democratic platform like Hillary Clinton. I hope you can support the platform all the way as she does. I can't imagine why you wouldn't unless you really don't care about the issues as much as you say you do. I hope and assume that's not the case.
Ethan, Clinton's supporters are not listening to anything Obama or his supporters have to lecture us on.
We tried to warn the DNC that we are not loyal Democrats, nor are we all women, nor have we ever been single issue voters.
The DNC told 18 million voters that they didn't need our vote.
Okay, John McCain told us he did, if we want to reform (change) DC.
We do.
Now, all Obama's camp wants to do is ridicule John McCain for standing in front of a green background and for not sending emails; and ridicule Sarah Palin for anything DailyKos sends his daily swarm out to ridicule Gov. Palin about.
Those aren't the issues that matter to Americans.
Accomplishments matter to Americans.
Barack Obama doesn't have any.
He has a cult.
He has a speech.
What voters really want to know from Democrats is:
"Beside cheering young Barack Obama on while he blew your political party to smithereens, what has Nancy Pelosi accomplished in the last two years?"
Here's how we see the race now:
Hero v. Zero
Here's the speech I hope Sarah Palin gives in Nevada today:
"Nevada! How do you like Harry Reid's 'leadership' these last two years?
"Nevada, Harry Reid said -- and I quote -- 'I can't stand John McCain.'
"Nevada, I want to ask you today...
"Which leader do you want to stand up with in November?
"Harry Reid or John McCain?
"I'm going to stand up with John McCain! Join me!
Let's STAND UP for John McCain here in NEVADA!""
Sorry Eathan - Obama lost my possible vote (and respect) when him and his lower than dirt campaign accused the Clintons (OF ALL PEOPLE) of being racists.
Racists?! - Despite their 30 year history to the contrary. Both Clintons have promoted and supported civil rights for their entire public careers. Remember Bill appointing the first presidential cabinet that "looked like America"? How about his 90% plus approval ratings amongst African Americans while he was President?
But Obama knew no bounds and inflamed racial tensions on the eve of the SC primary.
Disgusting.
And he did not choose Hillary as VP (despite the 18 Million Votes) yet we Hillary supporters should somehow believe that he will appoint her to a cabinet position in his administration?
Spare me -
Thank you for speaking for the 18 million people who supported Hillary Clinton in the Dem primaries. I'm sure they all agree with a McCain dittohead like you! Hahaha.
I am just enthralled by your total grasp of the issues that matter in America today. Your post is just so full of facts.
No really. Where did you learn your brand of Republican distraction politics, was it from the Karl Rove Institute of Total Fabrication or the Sarah Palin School for the Obnoxiously Uninformed?
Recapture? Can we please stop pretending that a change that is still within the margin of error is a statistically significant alteration in the voice of the electorate? The fact is they are tied, the have been tied, and other than their respective conventions there has been no change in that, and likely won't be. Wake me up when you can report something outside the MoE.
ch, you spare ME. I've been a Clinton supporter since 1992. Some of the things that Hillary and Bill said during this campaign were beneath them.
But the state of the country matters FAR more than this debate we are having, doesn't it??
I think Obama will definitely offer Clinton a cabinet post.
Either way, with our country in this state, do you really want to support a White House that is run by lobbyists? Are you really going to let some political disagreements between Barack and Hillary get in the way of solving our country's problems?! I can't imagine that you feel so strongly about that one political fight that you would essentially bow to Bush and the Neoconservatives for another 4 years? I find it hard to believe. I don't care what political party you are coming from, but I cannot imagine that you support John McCain and the Republican Platform for President at this point, given the blatant pattern of lies and deception and given our needs in this hour.
Ethan - Can I have some examples of the things the Clintons did that were "beneath them"?
I have already give you a CLEAR example of what Obama did to them that was way beneath him.
Now it's your turn.....
The Obama freefall continues.
Here are the JUST RELEASED Zogby poll numbers in the key battleground states (www.zogby.com):
CO - McCain AHEAD by 2
FL - McCain AHEAD by 11
NH - McCain AHEAD by 7
NV - McCain AHEAD by 8
OH - McCain AHEAD by 5
VA - McCain AHEAD by 7
PA - McCain ahead by 7
Many thanks to the DNC/Super Delegates for selecting Obama.
Seems like we democrats always lose unless the name CLINTON appears at the top of the presidential ticket.
Those are interactive numbers. Nobody pays attention to those Zogby numbers. They are "freeped."
I cant believe I actually followed your link, and BTW, there goes your credibility, "Clinton Supporter."
What a troll, you probably go all around the internet writing on boards that you are a lifelone member of the "Democrat Party." I have a lot more respect for people like flyover who just say straight up that they are GOP.
Those are interactive numbers. Nobody pays attention to those Zogby numbers. They are "freeped."
I cant believe I actually followed your link, and BTW, there goes your credibility, "Clinton Supporter."
What a troll, you probably go all around the internet writing on boards that you are a lifelone member of the "Democrat Party." I have a lot more respect for people like flyover who just say straight up that they are GOP.
Looks like I struck a nerve.
My those Obama suporters appear to be in meltdown mode over all these polls!
Whatever happened to "Yes, we can.."
I'm just glad he's picking on somebody other than me. 1984 was a great year for me.
I don't care about the polls, because both of your candidates are serial liars and the American people aren't stupid.
Flyover, again with your cute distraction techniques. Things are sooo great for you, but you obviously don't care about the reality that everyday Americans are suffering. You know it, but ignore it, b/c you don't care.
So I will re-post the TRUTH for you. To force you read it again. To force you to confront the MESS that the Bush/Cheney/McCain Republican party has gotten the United States of America into:
We are in an economic recession, we are losing jobs like crazy, the cost of consumer products and energy is skyrocketing, we are locked in a senseless foreign occupation at the cost of $12B per month, we still haven't gotten Bin Laden or fully disrupted Al Qaeda in 7 years since 9/11. And here comes John McCain and Sarah Palin whose campaign manager has ADMITTED that LYING TO THE PUBLIC is their strategy to win the election.
It's time we actually DO put COUNTRY FIRST.
That would be nice, for a CHANGE.
Elect the Democrats to fix this mess.
Pundits and critics are vastly underestimating Obama's grit and his ability to win. He's registered millions of new voters and counting and his state grounds game is elaborate. We underestimate Obama at his peril. Remember a year ago the MSM was calling Hillary Clinton the all but certain nominee and well that turned out not to be the case. though, i do agree if some that Obama should of made her his VP. Who knows? that could still happen this is politics after all.
I have been a lifelong Rep. However after watching what this administration has done to our country,am now a Independent.And supporting
Obama/Biden.As far as McCain/Palin? Two words.
Old Lipstick!