Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: It's Le Close
In the latest Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, Obama/Biden's lead among RVs has dropped to just 1%. The Dem ticket now leads McCain/Palin 45-44%; in yesterday's release, Obama/Biden led 46-42%. Today's survey is the closest the candidates have been since the Dems' 44-43% lead on 9/14.
Since the previous survey, McCain/Palin saw noticeable gains among both Inds and men. The GOPers now trail among Inds by just 3%; they had previously trailed by 8%. Meanwhile among men, McCain/Palin now lead 48-42%, up from their 1% deficit one day ago and their first lead in the category since 9/14. The 6% GOP margin among men is also their largest since 9/12.
On the issues, 47% now say the economy is the most important one currently facing the U.S., a new record in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Yesterday, 44% cited the economy was the top issue, and only 36% named it as recently as 9/13.
Today's survey, conducted 9/16-18 by FD, surveyed 915 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. Party ID breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.
More information can be found at Diageo/Hotline and, for subscribers, in today's Hotline.
(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)
Very scary for democrats that Obama is struggling or behind in OH and PA. Hillary would have probably won both plus been much more competitive in FL. Not to mention that she would win AR.
And she would have had much more credibility on the issue that will decide the election – the Economy.
Maybe the DNC was on a suicide mission when they SELECTED Obama as our nominee?
This poll goes up and down faster than any tracking poll I've ever watched.
Anyone who looks at one daily poll and says Hilary would have been better,isn't paying attention. In the poll of polls nationally Obama is up by 2. gallup shows+5 today. Research 2000 has him +7. one thing can be seen and felt Obama is surging, and Mccain is trying to catch him. This morning in Florida Obama ave a Presidential like press conference and showed why is the adult in this race.
They're paying attention, just trying to keep the Clinton story alive ... it's just SOOOOO juicy!
Your poll looks implausible, every other tracking poll has Obama gaining ground.
Right On, Harry.
Great state polls out today for Obama in Ohio (+2), Pennsylvania (+5), Michigan (+9) and Oregon (+10).
GOP leaning Rasmussen could only manage a 2 point lead for McCain in Indiana (49-47). It seems that we can confirm that Indiana is a battleground state.
Obama now leads in the R2000 poll by 7 and in the Gallup poll by 5. He is at 45% or above in all 4 tracking polls. McCain is below 45% in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. CBS/NYT had Obama +5, and some of that was taken prior to Black Monday.
We are seeing Obama return to his pre-convention leads in the blue states and blue leaning red states. We are seeing Obama become more competitive in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. In Ohio, Obama seems to have erased a 4 point deficit and now has a net 2 point lead in at least 3 recent polls.
Obama is clearly in a better position than Kerry was 4 years ago. McCain is clearly in a worse position than Bush was 4 years ago. The election has become a referendum on the Republican Party. This is a good environment for Democrats to win.
McCain will get a chance to reframe things after the debate, but it is also likely that McCain's essential weakness on foreign policy issues will be exposed, and the presumed advantage voters give to the GOP on foreign policy matters will diminish.
Great state polls out today for Obama in Ohio (+2), Pennsylvania (+5), Michigan (+9) and Oregon (+10).
GOP leaning Rasmussen could only manage a 2 point lead for McCain in Indiana (49-47). It seems that we can confirm that Indiana is a battleground state.
Obama now leads in the R2000 poll by 7 and in the Gallup poll by 5. He is at 45% or above in all 4 tracking polls. McCain is below 45% in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. CBS/NYT had Obama +5, and some of that was taken prior to Black Monday.
We are seeing Obama return to his pre-convention leads in the blue states and blue leaning red states. We are seeing Obama become more competitive in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. In Ohio, Obama seems to have erased a 4 point deficit and now has a net 2 point lead in at least 3 recent polls.
Obama is clearly in a better position than Kerry was 4 years ago. McCain is clearly in a worse position than Bush was 4 years ago. The election has become a referendum on the Republican Party. This is a good environment for Democrats to win.
McCain will get a chance to reframe things after the debate, but it is also likely that McCain's essential weakness on foreign policy issues will be exposed, and the presumed advantage voters give to the GOP on foreign policy matters will diminish.
Great state polls out today for Obama in Ohio (+2), Pennsylvania (+5), Michigan (+9) and Oregon (+10).
GOP leaning Rasmussen could only manage a 2 point lead for McCain in Indiana (49-47). It seems that we can confirm that Indiana is a battleground state.
Obama now leads in the R2000 poll by 7 and in the Gallup poll by 5. He is at 45% or above in all 4 tracking polls. McCain is below 45% in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. CBS/NYT had Obama +5, and some of that was taken prior to Black Monday.
We are seeing Obama return to his pre-convention leads in the blue states and blue leaning red states. We are seeing Obama become more competitive in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana. In Ohio, Obama seems to have erased a 4 point deficit and now has a net 2 point lead in at least 3 recent polls.
Obama is clearly in a better position than Kerry was 4 years ago. McCain is clearly in a worse position than Bush was 4 years ago. The election has become a referendum on the Republican Party. This is a good environment for Democrats to win.
McCain will get a chance to reframe things after the debate, but it is also likely that McCain's essential weakness on foreign policy issues will be exposed, and the presumed advantage voters give to the GOP on foreign policy matters will diminish.
This poll going one way when others go the opposite doesn't mean much, especially since this has such a small sample. Lots of volatility should be expected. It's best to just average this in with the others (like Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com), but don't bother with it on its own.
This morning in Florida Obama ave a Presidential like press conference and showed why is the adult in this race.
Harry | 09.19.08 01:36 PM
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And how many times did he respond with ah...you know...well...ah...I ..ah...um?
Hillary whooped his ass in every debate. Sure, strong, controlled and confident - that's Hillary!
You conservatives don`t realize an intelligent person thinks before they speak instead of blurting out nonsense like McCain. You can see Obama thinking before he speaks but I will admit it is annoying.
Not to sure McCain can debate, when was the last time he stood up 90 minutes and debated one on one. I expect he will make many factual errors and probably be over aggressive while Obama makes a even tempered case for himself.
By the way this poll seems to oversample republicans and doesn`t have enough independents.
Using this party id no wonder it`s this close.
This is a poll of registered voters, so the partisan composition of each daily sample should not change. In order for the Presidential vote intention trends to be meaningful and to be taken seriously, the Hotline pollster should finally (and belatedly) begin to weight each day's sample by party ID.
Obama on economic crisis: "Present"
This seems to be a contrarian poll. When McCain was up in every poll last week, he was doing poorly in this one. Maybe this poll just catches trends quicker than the others?
Is this pollter pro Obama or Dem? It seems you favour Obama over McCain in your daily tracking polls. Like many Americans, I have never paid any attention to your daily tracking polls which seems to be biased aganist McCain. You will be proven wrong on November 4 when McCain wins the election. There're other factors which are byond polling.