This poll is al over the place and seems to be garbage. After McCains last two days your telling me independents switched to McCain by 5%. Gimme a break, and I have a bridge for sale...

Nice to see that you are finally matching the Rasmussen party weighting model (based upon 45,000 phone calls) at a 5% advantage to democrats instead of the 9% advantage you had earlier.

As you can see, your numbers have now moved exactly in line with his.

Joke Polls, such as the DailyKos Poll, claim that only 26% of the electorate is republican (laughable) and thus derive an 8 point lead for Obama (fall on the floor laughable).

Bravo on fixing your poll.

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracker is garbage poll bised at least 6 points in Obama'a favor for 3 reasons:

1. The Kos Dem ID marin is +9 instead of the +5 used by Rasmussen, Hotline, (and I think Gallup has a +6 but not sure).

2. Kos has women/men ratio of 53%/47% instead of the standard 52%/48%.

3. BIGGEST FLAW: Even though Latinos make up 15% of the population, the Pew Hispanic Center has determined they make up only 8% of actual voters. Yet Kos/Research 2000 has Latinos as 13% of likely voters -- a 5% error.

Anyone relying on the Kos fantasy tracking poll will have arude awakening on election night.

Hey Genius

The actual percentage of voters in the 2006 elections who were Hispanic was actually a little over 13%. You think it's going to be less this year? If so, I have a bridge in Alaska I'd like to sell you.

In the KOS poll those they call consistently identify as Democrats in that ratio of 35 to 26, night after night - plus or minus a point or so according to the polling company. I'm sure some of the respondents are lying - that some of those who say they are Democrats are really Republicans unwilling to admit their true party identification. I mean - who in their right mind would admit to being a Republican given the disaster the Republicans have produced? It's like admitting that you're a child molester. And I'm sure they're lying to Gallup also about who they support, which is why today Gallup has it O 50 Mc 44.

Mugwamp,

You forgot two other things about the DailyKos/Research 200 poll that skew it off.

They under count older voters, from 2004, by 2%, when the 60+ voter crowd will likely increase (as it did from '00 to '04 by 2%), while overcounting young voters.

They pad black turnout by 2%, up from 9% in '00 and '11 percent in '04, to now 13%

They ignore asian voters, which made up 2% in '04, all together.

Fantasy is right (and I'm a Democrat).

Mugwamp,

You forgot two other things about the DailyKos/Research 200 poll that skew it off.

They under count older voters, from 2004, by 2%, when the 60+ voter crowd will likely increase (as it did from '00 to '04 by 2%), while overcounting young voters.

They pad black turnout by 2%, up from 9% in '00 and '11 percent in '04, to now 13%

They ignore asian voters, which made up 2% in '04, all together.

Mike,

'06 was not a presidential. If you want to use if for weighting, do it across the board, not pick and choose those that favor Obama.

The Diego Hotline, The Battleground 10, Gallup Daily Tracking, Kos, Quinnapic, CNN Poll, and Marrist are all badly done, badly weighted and Gallup and CNN Marist,Zogby and Quinnapic were actually at the bottom last time for accuracy by predicting a Kerry victory or being off.

The Top Three Polls: Battleground-Terrance (not to be confused with Battleground 10-no relation) PEW and Rasmussen were the top polls last time. For one, their sampling is much larger, their weighting is superior and accurate. These three show a tie or Ras shows an Obama 1 pt lead.

The Diego Hotline, The Battleground 10, Gallup Daily Tracking, Kos, Quinnapic, CNN Poll, and Marrist are all badly done, badly weighted and Gallup and CNN, Marist,Zogby and Quinnapic were actually at the bottom last time for accuracy by predicting a Kerry victory or being off by up to 3-4 pts.

The Top Three Polls: Battleground-Terrance (not to be confused with Battleground 10-no relation) PEW and Rasmussen were the top polls last time. For one, their sampling is much larger, their weighting is superior and accurate. These three show a tie or Ras shows an Obama 1 pt lead.

The Battleground 10, Gallup Daily Tracking, Kos, Quinnapic, CNN Poll, and Marrist are all badly done, badly weighted and Gallup and CNN, Marist,Zogby and Quinnapic were actually at the bottom last time for accuracy by predicting a Kerry victory or being off by up to 3-4 pts. The Diego is brand new so doesn't have a track record yet, but hard to believe a three day rolling average flucuates by 4 pts. Scott Rasmussen says virtually impossible.

The Top Three Polls: Battleground-Terrance (not to be confused with Battleground 10-no relation) PEW and Rasmussen were the top polls last time. For one, their sampling is much larger, their weighting is superior and accurate. These three show a tie or Ras shows an Obama 1 pt lead.

The Battleground 10, Gallup Daily Tracking, Kos, Quinnapic, CNN Poll, and Marrist are all badly done, badly weighted and Gallup and CNN, Marist,Zogby and Quinnapic were actually at the bottom last time for accuracy by predicting a Kerry victory or being off by up to 3-4 pts. The Diego is brand new so doesn't have a track record yet, but hard to believe a three day rolling average flucuates by 4 pts. Scott Rasmussen says virtually impossible.

The Top Three Polls: Battleground-Terrance (not to be confused with Battleground 10-no relation) PEW and Rasmussen were the top polls last time. For one, their sampling is much larger, their weighting is superior and accurate. These three show a tie or Ras shows an Obama 1 pt lead.

The flyover poll of asking people in the checkout line at the grocery store is probably more accurate.

Research 2000 must be being held hostage to the Daily Kos' liberal lunatics because R2000 is contradicting themselves with their own state polls. How on earth could Obama be ahead 7 points nationally while behind by 4 points in Missouri and 1 point in Florida which is what the latest R2000 polls show (released yesterday)? Unfortunately for them, R2000 is wrecking their reputation in doing polls for a crazies outfit like Daily Kos.

Research 2000 must be being held hostage to the Daily Kos' liberal lunatics because R2000 is contradicting themselves with their own state polls. How on earth could Obama be ahead 7 points nationally while behind by 4 points in Missouri and 1 point in Florida which is what the latest R2000 polls show (released yesterday)? Unfortunately for them, R2000 is wrecking their reputation in doing polls for a crazies outfit like Daily Kos.

If you are Republican you cheer the polls that show McCain close to Obama, and you denegrate polls that don't seem to match your political point of view. Dems do the same thing. if you look at the polls that were least accurate in 2004,they were only off by 1 or 2% off,but still managed to predict the winner. Daily polls will not make Obama or McCain President. Voting on Nov 4 will. So either side just make sure you get your base out to vote. Because that's what's going to decide this election,entusiasm about your candidate, not the polls.

"entusiasm about your candidate"

Yeah, and McBush has ALL the "entusiasm."

LOL

As a Pol. Sci. major I am always fascinated by polls. Here are some tips. Pay no attention to interactive polls (like zogby). There are too many variables that they can't account for even if they correct for the sample. Secondly, follow the trend of the same poll over a week's time and you will get a flavor for what is happening. Finally, stick to the pollsters who have an excellent record even if they are off by a point or two. All these pollsters that come out every four years are really worthless. In reading the cross tabulations, you sometimes get a better view for what is happening when this information is available to you. For example, if you find a pollster is willing to breakdown the results by religion in a particular state, go back 4 years and see what the actual results were based on those same factors. For example, let's take Florida where the polls are all over the place. If you find a poll that says Jewish voters are splitting 65-35% for Obama, this is good news for McCain. Bush got only 22% of the Jewish vote in Florida in 2004 but still carried the state. It is just one example of another way to look at the polling. Right now, today, Obama is probably ahead in the country by a point or two. It doesn't mean much in the overall scheme of things except to indicate the race is close and the coming events-the debates take on added importance. Keep you eye on the independent women voters as they may hold the key in the final analysis as to who wins.

Last election these crowds that one could still hear echoing “four more years!” that resonated and ultimately stirred a winning cause, was based on Bush would do better in time of war. Did they forget the attracts happened on his watch?
I keep hearing polls insinuating McCain would do better in war because of his experience. Let’s reverse the situation. Who would do better making peace? Better yet. Who would do better in preventing war? Who is the best ticket on talks with our Arab and Muslim friends, McCain-Palin or Obama-Biden? Education is the key here, all nations learning from each other in a give and take of important attitude and feelings. One thing is certain, in the Muslim culture; it is easier for men to converse with each other rather then man and women that’s where Biden has the advantage over Palin. On the same token a man who cries fire (“I would fire him”) is a scary image of McCain’s hand slamming down on a big red button yelling “fire!” Our friends and allies of the Arab and Muslim nations would apt to have a better rapport with Obama

James get a new line you are as bad as an Obama teleprompter running the same mesage over and over on ever subject. I wonder why you believe that the Arab and Muslim nations would have a better rapport with Obama, Probably the same reason that the Gays, Actors, Crackheads comedians, prostitutes turned talk show co-host, and the communist nations would. You are probably right, the question is, do I want some one who has a good rapport with these people as president. Some one who shares their view points on women, some one who understands their loyaties to terrorism, to Allah, Why do these people want Obama to be president so bad. Why would it matter how they felt about a woman vp.
And least of all what exactly is your agenda James. To insure that America does the right thing by the islamic, muslim, arabic and communist countries or else what? Practice what you preach, maybe they can learn something of our culture too, that includes the possibilities for all persons not just men. America has gone to great lengths to respect the feelings and understand the religious cultures of other countries, but i do not see them trying to respect ours James. Both need to reach out to one another for the good of all. Not just reform America to the way of others. People are continuously condemning the U.S. for the way others preceive us. Mostly Actors, and crack head comedians, and that chick who wears her under wear on the out side of her clothes. People who made it good because of the way we are here, not inspite of the way we are. I dont think McCain is going to punch the button anymore than Reagan would remember all those jokes. I beleive that the other nations would respect us more for a strong leader, not just someone else's patsty in the white house. And so far I think that Palin maybe stronger than the other 3 put together.